As the political world's focus shifts to the second presidential debate in Nashville, Barack Obama continues to expand his lead upon John McCain in all of our projection metrics, and now rates as almost a 9:1 favorte to win the election in November.
Both state and national polls are contributing to this result. Obama remains at his strongest-ever levels in the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, leading McCain by 8 and 9 points, respectively. Although some of the other tracking polls -- like Diageo/Hotline and the brand new Reuters/Zogby poll -- show tighter race the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in the model.
Obama also gets a monster number from SurveyUSA in Pennsylvania, which has him leading by 15 points, up from a 6-point lead two weeks ago. SurveyUSA polls can be a bit volatile, but with that said, we now have multiple polls (Quinnipiac, Morning Call, West Chester/NPR) suggesting that Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. We also show Pennsylvania moving back ahead of Michigan, projecting an 8.7-point win for Obama there as opposed to 8.4 points in the Wolverine State. The good news for McCain is that Pennsylvania is one of those states with absolutely no form of early voting, so while he's got a lot of ground to make up, he wouldn't be penalized for doing so late.
The set of CNN polling also contains good news for Obama, though CNN polls -- which have had a Democratic lean this cycle -- usually do. New Hampshire is another place where Obama's numbers have improved recently; when coupled with his newfound strength in Pennsylvania, our model now assigns Obama a 69 percent chance to hold onto all of John Kerry's blue states from 2004.
McCain needs a game changer. Or two. Or three. Tonight's debate, which features McCain's preferred town hall format, might be his best remaining opportunity.
Polling follows.
10.07.2008
Today's Polls, 10/7
@ 2:02 PM
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284 comments
Still on pins and needles for Nate's significant announcement.
I'm not sure that he will announce it to the world again (why did he do that?) but McCain would be crazy to keep "competing" in Pennsylvania now. Nearly all the polls put the Obama lead between 10 and 15%.
Nate:
Good luck on the Colbert Report tonight. Can't wait to see it!!
Thanks for the update....love the look of the super tracker. Think tonights debated will be the final nail in the coffin.
I just don't see why McCain brought out the negative stuff BEFORE tonight's debate. I am sure there will be an audience question on it and I am sure Obama will confront him on it.
Colbert---so very cool! You are becoming a regular media darling.
PMOC - what significant announcement? That Obama's win % exceeds 90%?
Sorry to go OT so early, but I think this report from NPR is really important to spread around:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95442902
Does a good job of emphasizing not only that Obama merely happened to be on a board with the guy and there is basically no other connection, but also that many Republicans also served on the same board and never resigned because of Ayers' past. Here's a sample:
"Walter Annenberg, a lifelong Republican and former ambassador who was appointed by Presidents Nixon and Reagan, funded an ambitious program to reform urban education in many cities in the mid 1990s. Ayers was an important member of the group that developed and wrote the grant proposal to the Annenberg Foundation.
Obama and Ayers attended at least six meetings together over six years, Annenberg Challenge records show, and those knowledgeable of the school reform group say it is likely there were other informal sessions of the group that they both attended. But no one on the board or on the Annenberg Challenge staff remembers Obama being any closer to Ayers than to any other member of the board. The Annenberg board also included several civic, business and education leaders, many of them Republicans."
Michelle Obama live HERE for anyone interested.
There was a teaser about an announcement a while back. Now I'm under the impression its an appearance on the Colbert Report, and I'm very pleased.
Today's polls are WONDERFUL NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
Who chooses the questions for the debate? Do they just compile as many as they can, find the common themes, and then design the questions according to popularity of the question?
Can McCain speak to independents? That will be the key tonight in a townhall full of independents.
Obama and Biden have been targeting independents since the convention, but McCain and Palin have been playing more and more to the rabid right-wing base. If McCain uses some of his stump lines tonight they will go over like a lead balloon in the hall.
Going to verify that my DVR is set.
These polls are great news!!! For Barack Obama!!!
Wow, look at how BLUE that map is!
On this day, October 7th, in 2004, George bush led John Kerry 1.8 points in the tracking poll averages.
For final results, please see presidential inauguration, January 2005
You 'Cons should be getting nervous!
and...
Congratulations to President Elect Barack Hussein Obama Jr.
That's right you 'cons, get used to President Hussein. Gonna say it every time just to spite you racemongerers who tried to use it for political advantage.
I think Obama should push the "erratic" label further onto McCain. With the mythology McCain has built around himself being a "maverick" the "more of the same" label becomes relatively hard to stick - because it is a direct contrast with McCain's message. "Erratic" on the otherhand resonates with "maverick", both are kind of unstable and unpredictable. By pushing "erratic" hard enough, people will think unstable every time McCain says "maverick" and Obama would deviate McCain's own message against him.
You may want to note that that tight Diageo poll has an unusual sample composition with a party ID of only D+2. That figures to account for all or nearly all of the difference.
Why? I don't know. Maybe Dems weren't answering phones last night. Maybe Republicans were too depressed to go out.
Fantastic job on Olberman, Nate! Keep on doing god's work.
And if I may post again, here's the subversive slam on Obama running around the evangelical mafia. Republican party county chair dismissed for spreading nasty Obama rumor.
Think McCains frustration is going to come out tonight and I don't think it is going to be pretty.
anyone hear anything about early voting turnout? i havent found much...
i just voted early in a very solid repub town in NM and not much turnout
Any reason for Hotline-Diageo to be an outlier here? The lead went from about 6 to 2 in 1 day, while Obama finally hit 51 in Gallup - any theories?
Nate: Any comment on the Party ID for Diageo/Hotline's last two polling days? I wouldn't be surprised if the race was tightening up, but the following data does look a bit odd:
10/4: 41% D, 36% R, 19% I
10/5: 41% D, 36% R, 19% I
10/6: 40% D, 38% R, 18% I
10/7: 40% D, 38% R, 18% I
The question I have is who are all these undecided people. I don't know anyone who hasn't decided, or could watch some of these attcks (from either side) and be swayed to change their mind.
Any reason for Hotline-Diageo to be an outlier here? The lead went from about 6 to 2 in 1 day, while Obama finally hit 51 in Gallup - any theories?
What do you think the chances are of some sort of public shaming from Obama during tonight's debate? A "You can throw all the old dirt you want; meanwhile, the grown-ups will be over here talking about the economy, the war, healthcare" kind of thing? Or do you think he'll be playing it safe?
J -
My understanding is that the questions are submitted by the town hall participants ahead of time, and that Tom Brokaw, tonight's moderator, chooses which questions will be asked.
"I think Obama should push the "erratic" label further onto McCain. With the mythology McCain has built around himself being a "maverick" the "more of the same" label becomes relatively hard to stick - because it is a direct contrast with McCain's message. "Erratic" on the otherhand resonates with "maverick", both are kind of unstable and unpredictable. By pushing "erratic" hard enough, people will think unstable every time McCain says "maverick" and Obama would deviate McCain's own message against him."
He's a MAVERRATERICK!
oh i didn't see that NC CNN poll showing O ahead by a point
NICE!
and in Ohio by 3
Are today's polls really wonderful news for John McCain?
oh wait on RCP it shows those polls as Tied in NC and a 5 point lead in WI
hmm is that a LV vs RV thing?
"Any reason for Hotline-Diageo to be an outlier here? The lead went from about 6 to 2 in 1 day, while Obama finally hit 51 in Gallup - any theories?"
Assuming they don't weight by Party ID and merely report it, I think it's just random statistical chance.
Remember, you expect 1 out of every 20 polls to be outside the Margin of Error. For a daily tracking poll, that means you'd expect an "outlier" about once every three weeks. Heck, 1 out of every 100 polls will be 3 standard errors from reality (1.5 times the MoE) and we've certainly seen more than 100 polls in the past week or two.
If you figure we've seen 200 polls recently, we'd expect two extreme outliers - that MN poll w/ McCain +1 was probably one and last night's Diageo # might have been the other.
It just happens sometimes.
There's been some discussion lately about McCain going after Maine's second congressional district and there are two things I wanted to put out there:
1) Rural voters are NOT the swing voters in that district. Lewiston voters are. They are heavily Catholic and Franco-American and are in favor of government involvement in the economy but are socially conservative. Keep that in mind as you do your demographic analysis.
2) Chris Potholm is quoted an expert in Maine politics. He is a paid consultant and pollster who works almost exclusively for Republicans. His son is a partner in the firm that did the Swiftboat ads in 2004. http://srcpmedia.com/contents/inspire/ He is by no means a neutral observer. Again, this is something to keep in mind when you think about what is likely to happen in that district.
O will be playing save, just look at that spike @ 380 why take risks?
Re: Debate questions
All debate questions are pre-screened, and they are "decided on" by Tom Brokaw, including the ones that will be asked by the audience members.
Audience members are not allowed to change their questions.
I'm not exactly certain how they would handle such a case if an audience member WERE to ask a question different from the one they are supposed to. This is going out live after all.
Could you please explain why your model favors Obama in Indiana when most polls show McCain ahead? Granted, it's close, but the state has been consistently red...Thanks.
markedman,
If the third party results are included in a poll Nate uses those. RCP doesn't, that's the difference.
Being in NC, I think it will be a strong showing for Obama here. Part of the reason is migration. Most of the people I meet are from California, NY, NJ, PA. There are also many naturalized citizens like myself that would NEVER vote republican.
Erratic is good. It plays to underlying fears that McCain is a character from Dr Strangelove. It's my main fear of him. He's an unstable hothead.
@John
They changed their weighting methods, as Jason noted, they went from D+5 to D+2.
Kind of an odd move to make considering how many Dems have been registering nation wide.
"oh wait on RCP it shows those polls as Tied in NC and a 5 point lead in WI
hmm is that a LV vs RV thing?"
It's a with and without 3rd-party candidates thing. CNN shows Barr siphoning 2-4% from McCain in all of their poll states. While that's higher than Barr's been showing all year, I actually could see his support ticking up here as it becomes inevitable that Obama's going to win and Republicans jump off of the McCain bandwagon, especially the staunchly anti-bailout ones.
Why did you include the one day sample for DKos instead of the 3 day tracking? Have you been doing it that way all along and I never noticed?
I have problems with Brokaw. I get the feeling he respects McCain and not Obama and it comes through on Meet The Press and other interviews. I would expect Obama to get the harder time tonight from brokaw.
I stopped watching MTP after Russert passed. Brokaw is a sad replacement.
The NeoCONs Reagan Party is dying before our very eyes. How long before the RepubliCONs figure out what to do going forward? Any guess?
Hi, Nate,
I know it's late in the process, but is there any chance of using some color other than white for tossup states in the map? I can never tell if they're white or light blue, especially if they're surrounded by red.
Indiana is pale blue today, right?
Well, today's results seem good enough and I guess Obama goes to the debate with a nice head-start. There are a couple of not-so good news imho though. The first one is Florida where many polls showed Obama pulling away but still we see the race is close. The NC number is not the best possible but NC is a luxury target anyway. Concerning Ohio, still too close (a tough nut to crack) but this one seems at least to be improving over time. The rest numbers are great since they show that Indiana is almost tied and blue states are as blue as the sea. (Plus if California delivers a +16 on election day I cannot imagine Obama losing the popular vote.). Bottom line, those darn battleground states don't seem to budge quite enough yet... As for the national polls those are all ok since probably the truth is somewhere in the middle, which middle is still a nice big Obama victory (though I think Zogby will once again be the intentional outlier just in case he gets lucky and nails it as it happened in 2000)
If McCain screws up tonight and troopergate on friday finds Palin culpable, Im just going to throw on my party hat and crack a beer.
13489 years!
I don't think many more states can go blue.
It's that Win Percentage PacMan.
It sneaks around eating red from the map when nobody is watching. Problem is it is totaly stuffed. Poor thing can barely keep its mouth open.
I expect it will soon close up and fall asleap.
shouldn't the Research 2000 national tracker have a slash in the sample size instead of the Battleground National?
I guess I men, isn't the Reasearch 2000 a tracker and the Battleground a regular old "normie"?
RE: Early Voting
Just got a call from my mom in NM, who was part of a caravan/parade of early voters to be the first to cast ballots for Obama in NM.
She has been part of that ground game so wonderfully covered by Sean on this website. She is 66 and never worked a presidential campaign until now.
I think the Obama volunteers in NM feel almost confident enough to send forces next door to TX!
I just saw Pres. Bush speak on the economic situation. Boy, what a broken down nutball he turned out to be.
And you posted right before the MN ass-kicking of
Obama 54
McCain 40
WOW!
Who were all those worried folks last week after the SurveyUSA poll? Not me!!!
"fluids"
Yes Brokaw is a poor replacemnt for Russert. Of the big 3 after Cronkite left the stage; Jennings, Rather, Brokaw, I always felt Brokaw carried the least heft. He's been poor on MTP and I think David Gregory will do much better going forward. I liked all 3 of Jennings, Rather, Brokaw, just always felt Brokaw was slightly behind the other 2. He won't ask the 2nd hard question. doesn't have the instincts for it. Many are far better than he is at that. Most are partisan, unfortunately. I think Gregory is about the best hope we've got going forward, though noone can replace Tim.
McCain is going to go negative tonight. And focus groups are going to turn their dials towards the (-) when he does.
As someone who treaches intro to quantitative analysis to grad students, I was interested in more info on your regression analysis. I am assuming you are using OLS or multinomial logistic regression. If OLS, do you re-check the underlying assumptions each day? DO you have to make corrections to the model or to specific variables?
Keep up the good work!
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...
Think McCains frustration is going to come out tonight and I don't think it is going to be pretty.
Exactly what I'm hoping for.
"That's right you 'cons, get used to President Hussein. Gonna say it every time just to spite you racemongerers who tried to use it for political advantage."
Do more than just say it!
October 2008 is Hereby Designated "Adopt Hussein as Your Middle Name" Month!
Why the McCain/Palin ads up top? Over for Obama? On a website that says he has over 300 EV's?
Do you know what would make me feel safer as an Obama supporter? If Obama just didn't lead, but topped that vital 50% number in the polls.
Eric:
How long before the RepubliCONs figure out what to do going forward? Any guess?
Based on what's going on in the Virginia GOP and a couple of other states, I'd guess it could be a while. They'll go through a period where they blame the candidates but not the party philosophy, and where they believe that their only mistake is not pushing tax cuts/social issues/whatever enough, and purge anyone who suggests a more moderate course.
Bush speaking on anything right now is free advertising for Obama.
If Nate is going on Colbert, he needs to be a little more animated that he was on Countdown.
Colbert Bump means we get an early polling update?
Nate,
What Registered Voter/Likely Voter model are you using? your data is different than in other places.
I hope you are being consistent, maybe talk about it again in tomorrow's Today's Polls.
Thank you.
Hotline poll has a small sample size compared to Gallup or Ras, so Hotline has a large MOE. This poll is quite volatile.
Reports will like to use this poll, because frequent movement will give them something to write about. But it is just a poor poll design due to small sample size. Nate has correctly give this poll very low weighting. Best thing to do with the Hotline poll is ignore it.
Wow, Kozerook's really losing the plot.
But, but, but Palin won the debate!
2much2lose said...
I just saw Pres. Bush speak on the economic situation. Boy, what a broken down nutball he turned out to be.
Bush helped Osama bin Laden escape U.S. forces. How do you suppose he'll screw America this time? Is he evil or just stupid?
Delta developed an audacious plan to come at bin Laden from the one direction he would never expect.
"We want to come in on the back door," Fury explains. "The original plan that we sent up through our higher headquarters, Delta Force wants to come in over the mountain with oxygen, coming from the Pakistan side, over the mountains and come in and get a drop on bin Laden from behind."
But they didn't take that route, because Fury says they didn't get approval from a higher level. "Whether that was Central Command all the way up to the president of the United States, I'm not sure," he says.
The next option that Delta wanted to employ was to drop hundreds of landmines in the mountain passes that led to Pakistan, which was bin Laden’s escape route.
"First guy blows his leg off, everybody else stops. That allows aircraft overhead to find them. They see all these heat sources out there. Okay, there a big large group of Al Qaeda moving south. They can engage that," Fury explains.
But they didn't do that either, because Fury says that plan was also disapproved. He says he has "no idea" why.
"How often does Delta come up with a tactical plan that's disapproved by higher headquarters?" Pelley asks.
"In my experience, in my five years at Delta, never before," Fury says.
I think the R2K tracker number is suppose to be 52/41, not 50/41 as posted.
Why the McCain/Palin ads up top? Over for Obama? On a website that says he has over 300 EV's?
-------------
Nate accepts ads from everyone, within reason. See the FAQ for more info.
"I have problems with Brokaw."
I second this. I miss Timmy! :(
edgeways--
The 50-41 is for yesterday's polling only. 52-41 is the three-day average. (Check the internals for details.) Unlike most tracking polls, they also release individual-day results.
New Nevada Poll (From Pollster.com):
Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN-TV/Research 2000
10/3-6/08; 600 LV
Obama: 50
McCain: 43
"Do you know what would make me feel safer as an Obama supporter? If Obama just didn't lead, but topped that vital 50% number in the polls."
He's at 51 in Gallup and 52 in Rasmussen.
"Could you please explain why your model favors Obama in Indiana when most polls show McCain ahead? Granted, it's close, but the state has been consistently red...Thanks."
I was curious about this too, but it looks like it's largely from the trend adjustment. The very short version is that states with similar demographics to Indiana are showing a marked lean towards Obama, hence it's reasonable to infer that the Indiana polls are understating Obama's position.
"But, but, but Palin won the debate!"
Drudge wouldn't lie, would he? :)
I get the feeling that this is an important week in the election. McCain is starting the usual fear/smear/hate language that we have come to love from the GOP.
I believe Obama is more susceptible to this than most for obvious reasons. If Obama makes it through this week standing tall, then that will prove voters won't be scared off because of this nonsense.
Tonight's debate is important. McCain will up the rhetoric on Obama and the Senator must be quick to counter, stay light on his feet and hit back where necessary.
I would expect the "He's too Liberal, can't trust him, he's dishonest, raise your taxes, bad for the economy," normal Republican gibberish that they have convinced half the country is true. Obama must hammer the middle class talking points home again and again.
McCain = Wealthy Class
Obama = Middle Class
Obama is not real good at personal confrontation. He may need to be tonight.
I think the R2K tracker number is suppose to be 52/41, not 50/41 as posted.
-----------------
No. Since Kos reports the individual day's results, Nate uses those instead of the three-day rolling average. 50-41 is yesterday's result per Kos.
Why the McCain/Palin ads up top? Over for Obama? On a website that says he has over 300 EV's?
-------------
CAPITALISM. Yay America!
The Diageo/Hotline poll is undersampled and will produce large apparent swings even with zero movement at all: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/09/hotlinenational.html
(different jason from above.)
New Nevada Poll (From Pollster.com):
Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN-TV/Research 2000
10/3-6/08; 600 LV
Obama: 50
McCain: 43
Thanks for the news Nicholas!
VIVA LAS VEGAS! Never again has the desert been more blue!
HOLY SMOKES!
NV: Obama 50, McCain 43 (10/3-6)
By Eric Dienstfrey
Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN-TV /
Research 2000
10/3-6/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
oops I should read before I comment, sorry
EXCITING!
I am a Hussein.
To me the Nevada shift is the least surprising of all. Any effort to increase registration would swamp the static very rural GOP vote. I saw the polling misleading all along there.
Nate accepts ads from everyone, within reason. See the FAQ for more info.
_____________________________
Ah, fair enough. A fair number of people hit here often enough without reading the commentary for it to be worth it.
Here's what I would do on Colbert:
Nate: "Stephen, take a look at this bar graph showing the likelihood of different EV totals for Obama. The blue bars show Obama wins and the Red bars are McCain wins"
{closeup of graph, it looks like a big blue middle finger}
Colbert: "It's almost like there's a hidden message for John McCain in this data".
@ Joel:
Nate does not have his own Likely Voter model. He does no polling of his own. He takes a given whatever figure the pollster uses.
The Reno Gazette-Journal result is the highest lead Obama has ever held over McCain in Nevada since the general election started.
Charles Hussein Kozierok said...
"That's right you 'cons, get used to President Hussein. Gonna say it every time just to spite you racemongerers who tried to use it for political advantage."
Do more than just say it!
October 2008 is Hereby Designated "Adopt Hussein as Your Middle Name" Month!
What's really crazy is King Hussien if Jordan was a staunch ally of the USA. If you discount the fact that we stopped Saddam in Kuwait in 1990 (which was very much justified for US to do), but in terms of messing with us vs helping us King Hussein was more helpful than Saddam was harmful in relation to the US. By the way Barack's grandfather was named Hussein Obama.
We are all Husseins now.
When does early voting in Nevada start? I assume either not at all or OCt 16th. I'll try to find it.
MATT J. H. - Remember, though, that it's a town hall debate. Turning a question from a moderator into an attack on your opponent is one thing, doing it with a "regular person" can really make you look like a dick.
In the first debate, undecided voters didn't respond well to McCain's sneering "he just doesn't understand," when it was obvious to anyone watching that Obama did understand, they just disagreed. It'll be interesting to see if he tries that again, or if he has a new angle.
It seems Drudge report is having a difficult time finding good news for McCain. My heart goes out to them over there.
Blame said: "I don't think many more states can go blue. It's that Win Percentage PacMan. I expect it will soon close up and fall asleap."
MT, ND, WV, GA....
Oh, and the rest. They can all go blue, and that would be just fine by me. But I'll settle for ONLY another four or so. ;-)
I'm blinking at those two new Indiana polls; they're the first new ones in a couple of weeks, and yesterday I noticed that 538 had Obama pegged at +0.5 in IN. The new polls are a tie and a lead for McCain. Surely this implies that the model is being optimistic about Indiana? It'll be interesting to see what results emerge if Seltzer polls the state again soon, but for now, perhaps we should take the model with a pinch of salt.
I'm sure the R2K poll is listed by individual days because it's the only tracker that publishes its numbers for individual days. When averaging lots of polls like this, that's the better way to go because it gives you higher time-resolution. If he did the 3 day average, it would basically be getting averaged twice, which smooths things out more than necessary.
What I think is interesting is how much teh ROI index has flattened out. There are more orange states and fewer white and red states. It seems like Obama is being very efficient about how he's building up his leads. Rather than running up the score in places like Minnesota, he's building solid, but not overwhelming leads in all swing states, mostly in proportion to their ROI.
For me, the nicest number today is the Gallup tracker. Because they have such a long history of polling, you can compare it to previous election cycles. A 9 point lead 4-weeks out getting overturned is a rare beastie.
Adrian --
I agree that using "erratic" as something that resonates with "maverick" is a good thing for dems to suggest. I think this video helps push "maverick" towards that connotation: So What Exactly Is a Maverick?
Uses Top Gun, Oprah, Mel Gibson, etc...
The Hidden Vote
I suspect we will see some curious results come election night with the pollsters and pundits being confounded by an electorate that resented being talked down to and browbeaten into supporting Obama.
While voters may have gotten used to voting for non-racially divisive black candidates in their local elections, the same cannot be said about the present election. Obama remains a singular novelty and a Rubicon that we must eventually cross. Hopefully we will do so captained one day by a black Republican! But this year we have been given the improbable candidacy of Barack Hussein Obama to consider. His thin resume. His radical associations. His hazy background. His left wing agenda. His militant wife about whom rumors persist. For many there are grave doubts.
But these doubts have been shouted down, driven underground in a calculated effort by the Obama campaign to brand all opposition to him as "racist". Intimidation tactics such as this are not calculated to win support, but to suppress its manifestation. Therein lies the rub for Obama. His strategy has not won him many votes, but rather has simply made the calculus of the election more difficult to perceive.
With Palin too we see a similar circumstance. The Democrats together with their media allies have done a good, if incomplete job, of trying to marginalize her as some sort of doltish idiot who cannot answer the simplest questions put to her. However, she might have been mishandled or found herself spooked in a couple of encounters with overtly hostile journalists, Palin acquitted herself extraordinarily well in her debate with Biden and her performance ranks among the greatest communication efforts we have seen in modern political history. Yet, according to the polls, she lost the debate.
She “lost” by margins that far outstrip the margins Obama has racked up in the polls. It seems to me that many among those who were impressed by her performance had been scared off from saying so by the demonization of her skills by not only Obama and the media, but also the entertainment industry, to the extent that they felt unsure that they could express their confidence in her and chose not to reveal themselves as so out of touch with apparent popular understanding, even if in their heart of hearts they root for her.
Here is how a feminist, liberal columnist for the Times of London saw matters:
“After that debate, those who loathe Mrs Palin will still loathe her; those who cleave to her will find no new reason to be repelled. It is just shtick, she's sticking to the rigid train tracks of her notes, you tell yourself when she says how Saturday soccer parents fret at the touchline over their investments. But then the debate ends, her great messy family spreads out on stage, and Mrs Palin tenderly passes her always-placid Down's baby to her little girl. The sound is off, the scripted babble is over. It is a silent gesture, something compellingly real in a cooked-up world.” Janice Turner, Times of London.
There is something ineffably moving in those words. I cannot place it, but I feel it as does the author. Some things defy reason and ultimately we must go with our gut instinct.
Yes, my friends, there is a hidden vote out there, it is prepared to turn itself upon Obama and say “no” and to turn to Palin and say “yes”. This may yet tell the tale of the tape on November 4.
thene said...
I'm blinking at those two new Indiana polls; they're the first new ones in a couple of weeks, and yesterday I noticed that 538 had Obama pegged at +0.5 in IN. The new polls are a tie and a lead for McCain. Surely this implies that the model is being optimistic about Indiana? It'll be interesting to see what results emerge if Seltzer polls the state again soon, but for now, perhaps we should take the model with a pinch of salt.
It's important to note (I'm going off memory here), Indiana had about 2.5MM voters in 2004. Since the they've had 500,000 new voters register. They're likely heavily Democrat. A chunk of Indiana bleeds into Chicago's media market, Obama headquarters. Polling Indiana is likely extremely difficult.
@thene: I think the primary reason the projection in IN is better than the polls is because the polls were in the field a few days prior to the current national polling, which has improved. Older state polls are adjusted for national trends.
I've never understood why Nevada was so close. Kerry was very close to Bush. Add in the increased Hispanic population, Obama's advantage on the Yucca Mountain issue, and the high mortgage failures, and I thought six months ago that Nevada would be much bluer than Colorado. I still don't get why it's anywhere near close in the current environment.
Nate:
Pollster/Slate just announced an iPhone app (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pollstercom_via_iphone.php).
Could we get a similar app for this site?
I am a Hussein too!
It's likely the exit polls will be off, probably in favor of MCCain. My guess is the pundits on TV will suggest it's close, but lean Obama and the results will be a larger win for Obama. The reason is the enthusiasm gap will be felt in early voting. I'd bet Obama wins early voting by about 5 points more than Nov 4th voting, everything being equal. Perhas Nov. 4th Obama wins by 1 or 2 points (2/3rds of voters), pre-November 4th Obama wins by 10 (1/3). This will totally throw the exit polls off. i'd like Nate and Sean to write about this possibility.
PPP Ohio
O:49
M:43
"However, she might have been mishandled or found herself spooked in a couple of encounters with overtly hostile journalists, Palin acquitted herself extraordinarily well in her debate with Biden and her performance ranks among the greatest communication efforts we have seen in modern political history."
Hahahahahahha
(breath)
ahahahahahahahaaha
I don't even know what to say to that. Great communication effort? Seriously?
Eric -- Apparently, early voting in Nevada starts October 18th.
Have fun on the Colbert Report tonight! It's a shame I'm missing the taping, I was just there a couple of weeks ago and the guest was boring. :(
Re Indiana, one new poll showed a tie, the other McCain +2, while the model predicted Obama +0.5. If the model is within 3 or 4 points, that's actually a pretty good result, given the margins of error on all polls.
The hussein stuff is as gay as saying 'first'. Don't clutter these threads with it, please.
I can explain why Indiana's blue even though most polls show McCain up: trend-adjusted.
The map's addressing the question "who's likely to win on November 4, given the state of the polling today" and not "who would win if the election were held today?"
Since state polling tends to lag -- showing overall movement several days after national polls do, the model adjusts the state-by-state numbers to mimic national trends. With the national trend in the last week or two being so strong for Obama, it's pulling Indiana's numbers over the line.
In the end, it's probably not relevant to the outcome of the election. Indiana, like North Carolina and Missouri, are at the end of Obama's grasp. He may get them, but if he does, he's already held everywhere he needs to, and picked up Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada.
Justin, thanks for pulling out that nugget from PK's pile of sh*t. I never read his posts, but that really was comic genius.
matt said...
PPP Ohio
O:49
M:43
nooooooooooooooooooooooooo.... :-(
Hi assmole.... Sweetie, are you single?
Hey, it's Pete Hussein Kent!
Welcome back, Pete! How are you enjoying watching your candidate shoot himself in the foot on a daily basis?
nice PPP polling there. It's amazing what an unhinged grumpy old man can do in a couple weeks for you.
amazing new ohio poll!!
PPP is a dem leaning poll though right?
PEtekent, your conspiracy theories sound desperate, just like mccain..
PeteKent -
Lol, the demographic that worships Palin and resents Barack isn't "hidden." It's called the Religious Right. You know, the people who brought us eight years of Bush/Cheney?
aj hussein said...
I am a Hussein too!
hi there
Pete's "hidden voters" have all been beaten into submission in the last month. Before that, Pete was suggesting that Palin had fundamentally changed the race, as evidenced by...wait for it...the polls! Now, of course, people are scared to say they support Palin, but they really do!
markedman, PPP is Denm-affiliated, but according to Nate do not have a discernible house effect. Their previous OH poll had McCain up by 4.
PPP polls on Nate's rating
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
Nevada might be the least likely state to flip back. 269-269 tie goes to Obama almost for sure.
Pete Kent - sad that you are so easily swayed by obvious political stunts, as is, I'm sad to say, the Times columnist. Note that the Times of London, however, is owned by a certain Rupert Murdoch, whose opinions on Obama are well known. It is the equivalent of Fox News.
Aside from that, I had a big problem with Palin's family being wheeled onto the stage at the end of the debate. It's a simple stunt designed to appeal to the simple.
Joel said...
What Registered Voter/Likely Voter model are you using? your data is different than in other places.
To clarify the earlier response: Nate only used Registered Voters up until the first debate when he switched to only using Likely Voters. (This assumes that both numbers are available: if only one option exists he goes with that number.) Apparently, and if you search through some old posts you'll find this, there's some moderate empirical evidence that RVs are more predicative well in advance of election day; and, as you move closer, LVs more closely match the final tally.
PeteKent:
So in short, you've gone from (i) "the polls will show that the fundamentals of this election have changed after the Republican convention, it's not a bounce, really," to (ii) the polls are ALL WILDLY WRONG because, um, Americans are too scared (by whom/what exactly) to tell pollsters what they really think?
In other words, the polls were reliable when they showed a slight McCain lead, but now they should just be ignored? Because Americans have suddenly gotten all irrationally fearful in the last couple of weeks? Why do you have such a low opinion of Americans?
Also, if your theory were true (and of course it's obviously not, but let's play), why did McCain pull out of Michigan? I mean, he must be able to understand as well as you that the bad polling their for him was all just, um, scared Michiganders lying to pollsters, right?
Also, if this were true (and of course it's obviously not), why would the polls just start showing your claimed effect/inaccuracies in the last few weeks? Let's see, did anything else happen in the last few weeks that might have caused a move in the polls? Can you think of anything at all?
Remember PeteKent's "Inflection Points?" And remember his insistence that Palin was bringing McCain support in states with lots of trees?
HAHAHA. Glad to have him back because it makes these comments more entertaining.
You should have called me Ass von Mole, uh, sweetie.
Dear God Pete Kent is back LOL
Nate,
It's my understanding that your model somehow incorporates an assumption that the race will tighten up to election day (based on historical poll and election results).
Does this mean that if the polls were to stay frozen at their current results, we'd see a slow and steady creep upward in Obama's win percentage as the election approaches?
And is there any way for you to quantify that impact? I'm thinking some very rough rule of thumb (along the lines of: "If all polling results stay exactly where they are, Obama's win % will creep up about 0.5% per day").
Thanks!
(And my apologies that I'm not sufficiently motivated to study your methodology deeply enough that I could come up with something myself).
This question is intended in all seriousness:
What polling differential do you think is needed to suspect a stolen election in a given state with 90+% probability?
My answer is any state with polling consistently in the range of >+5% falls into this category. What do you think? By this metric, this election can still be stolen because all of these states suddenly polling for Barack are within this margin (e.g. NH, CO, NV, VA, NC, OH).
"Remember PeteKent's "Inflection Points?" And remember his insistence that Palin was bringing McCain support in states with lots of trees?"
Being a Republican means never having to say... well... anything that makes sense.
Wow! That's a +10 movement to Obama in Ohio per PPP in just three weeks. It had seemed like Ohio was immune from the national trend in Obama's favor, but it looks like it is finally going Obama's way just like Michigan and Pennsylvania have in the last two weeks.
The one intriguing excerpt from a fluff-filled WP debate preview (emphasis mine):
------------------------------------
So calibrating his performance Tuesday becomes especially difficult. In the first debate, McCain wouldn't even look at his younger rival. That's not really possible when the two will be less tethered to specific spots on the stage at Belmont. Can he be engaging and still engage?
Town halls invite civility. That's one of the reasons McCain proposed doing a series of town halls with Obama over the summer and fall. It was, his advisers know, his hope of conducting a different kind of campaign, one in which the two nominees might even share a meal after their joint performances. McCain long has envisioned this kind of a presidential campaign, something out of the ordinary.
The irony now is that, when McCain finally gets Obama on the stage for a town hall style debate, the pressure on him is to discard his traditional instincts and go after his opponent. That reality may cause McCain to be even more resentful toward Obama for rejecting what seemed like an eminently sensible proposal. But this campaign is leagues away from all that now.
NATE: Please be relaxed on the Colber Repor tonight.
Let him make fun of you and don't be stiff.
Sometimes on KO you seem to be a bit surprised with the lens's attention
He's great advertisment. The only way it can go wrong would be if you're stiff
The tallest spike on the Electoral Vote Distribution graph appears to be at 375 EV. That would be the result of giving Obama all the states that are currently blue or white on the map. What I find amazing is that there's a big fat blue area to the right of that on the graph. That means he's winning states like West Virginia, Georgia, and Montana in a decent number of simulations.
Yay, PeteKent's back to tell us stories about a silent majority and quote pundits whose debate impressions have already been solidly contradicted by actual polling of undecided voters!
So if the results turn out just how the projection looks, will that prove or disprove your theory that people have been browbeaten by the media into saying things they don't believe?
I really cannot wait for the Debate tonight, McCain should be strong. But am Hoping that it's a respectable well fought debate, where they actually answer questions
For the people wondering why Indiana is a slight light blue in spite of the new polls, go scroll down the list of state polls on your right. IN has several polls, and they've been added together and averaged out.
That average has Obama with a SLIGHT lead. It could very well change as new polls come out, but I hope that answers your question.
"...Palin was bringing McCain support in states with lots of trees?"
Hahaha that was hilarious. I laughed til I peed myself.
what exactly is trend-adjustment.
Maybe some of you could call yourselves 'Assein' in honor of me?
My answer is any state with polling consistently in the range of >+5% falls into this category. What do you think? By this metric, this election can still be stolen because all of these states suddenly polling for Barack are within this margin (e.g. NH, CO, NV, VA, NC, OH).
--------------------
I won't believe a stolen election based solely on disparity of outcome with poll results. There needs to be some direct evidence of election tampering IMHO. Just look at the NH primary--Obama was up more than 5 in all the polls and yet lost to Clinton by a few points. AFAIK, no one suggests that Clinton won that election through fraud.
Or 'McHussein' to be fair and balanced with regard to these two great candidates.
Some of the numbers for September registration are coming out. Not including up t othe deadlines of Oct 7th.
CO: 112,747 new registrants
Dems 64,255
Repub 25,016
Ind 30,329
Dems new registrants 2 to 1 cutting more into Repub adavantage.
2004 Repub +177,000
July 2008 Repub +78,000
End Sept Repub +39,000
You know, if racists are so intimidated by robotic pollsters saying "For Barack Obama, press 1," I worry that they might find the actual voting machines equally intimidating.
"I have to vote for the black man!" they'll weep. "Or Katie Couric might come to my house and ask me what newspapers and magazines I like to read. I can't stand up to pressure like that! Nobody could!"
PeteKent: "Palin acquitted herself extraordinarily well in her debate with Biden and her performance ranks among the greatest communication efforts we have seen in modern political history."
With weeks of intensive cramming, with cue cards in front of her, the best she could manage was to repeat Republican smears and talking points. That's "among the greatest in modern political history"?!
No my friend, one of the greatest communications efforts in modern history is you trying to convince anyone (with any sense) who saw the debate that she was anything but mediocre. Sadly, your efforts merely gain you an "Epic Fail".
On the bargraph of electoral totals, McCain only wins on the left-hand 10%. We know what those look like -- can you tell us what hte right-hand 10% look like? In other words, Can we get some flavorful examples of what's about as likely as McCain winning? ("As you can see, McCain winning is about as likely as Obama winning North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, and Montana. In fact, in our simulations, Obama won *Texas* as often as McCain won the election.")
But you know I've wanted a more flexible interface to the 10,000 simulations all along.
(in 2010: House elections, plus a million simulations at the national level?)
Town halls invite civility. That's one of the reasons McCain proposed doing a series of town halls with Obama over the summer and fall. It was, his advisers know, his hope of conducting a different kind of campaign, one in which the two nominees might even share a meal after their joint performances. McCain long has envisioned this kind of a presidential campaign, something out of the ordinary.
------------
That's just bullshit. McCain wanted lots of townhalls because townhalls are his best debate format. It was as cynical of a ploy as it would have been for Obama to propose a joint tour of giving speeches.
Rasmussen
Alaska
M-55, O-40
Pennsylvania
M-41, O-54
Another poll showing Pennsylvania going the way of Michigan.
You guuys mentioned the PPP poll of Ohio; if Obama is getting 54% of the vote in PA (like both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA say he is), he is getting at least 49% in Ohio, so PPP seems right on the mark.
May I ask? Why do people keep asking Nate or Sean questions in here?
Does he ever bother to answer them?
This isn't to criticize, it's just to state that I've seen hundreds of questions directed to Nate (who kicks mighty ass in what he does, mind you), and never seen a response.
So is the Bradley Effect up to 25% yet?
If Ras has PA Obama +13, stick a fork in McCain in PA!
Subterranean -- that's not fluff, that's fluffing. ;-)
Most of the media have gotten wise to the fact that nasty campaigning isn't something that St. John McCain is forced to do, it's something he's perfectly happy to do when it suits him. Another clue is how they're still swallowing the outrageous McCain lie that he would be running a more civil campaign if only Obama had agreed to his request to spending the whole summer doing joint town halls.
The fact is that McCain had every opportunity to run a civil campaign based on the issues. Instead, he hired Rove proteges to run a smear campaign, because winning was more important than his supposed "instincts" and "principles."
I'll come back when all the Hussein BS is over
Assuming an Obama victory, I am glad to see these latest extremist rallies by the GOP. It brings the Dixiecrat base to the foreground. Their existence and influence have been around in the GOP since 1968, but it was always coded and downplayed just enough that others could dismiss it. Now, it is coming out explicitly. Thankfully, sunshine is the best disinfectant.
Ras has Stevens ahead of Begich in the AK Senate race. What do you have to do to lose an election in Alaska besides have a (D) next to your name?
If Nate needs advice, he should remember Colbert is just 'pretending' - he's really just another liberal wuss like O'Reilly and that Olberrove fellow. (make sure you call him on it, Natesta)
buffi von hussein said...
So is the Bradley Effect up to 25% yet?
who knows
we will find out on election night
New Survey Usa numbers from WI
O-52, M-42
A lot of this state polling was done last night. If Obama is pulling double digit leads in states like WI and PA on Monday polling, it illustrates there was no "tightening" in the race on Monday at all.
I would be interested to see some red state polls to see if McCain is only making gains there.
Here is my question for John McCain:
Senator McCain - recently, a commander of U.S. Delta Force in Afghanistan recounted an order from U.S. Central Command de-authorizing an attack on Osama bin Laden's location, so as not to breach the border of neighboring Pakistan. You have previously stated that you would follow Osama bin Laden to 'the gates of hell'. Does this mean that you would have U.S forces enter Pakistani territory if they had a good chance of capturing or eliminating Osama bin Laden? How is your policy different than that of President Bush?
I'm so proud of my state (PA). I always knew we'd go to Obama, but I never imagined by this much. *sniff*
Ras has Stevens ahead of Begich in the AK Senate race. What do you have to do to lose an election in Alaska besides have a (D) next to your name?
---------------
Be convicted of a felony. C'mon DC prosecutors!
Gee... With all these Husseins around it seems like the end of Spartacus in here.
-Mason Hussein
Oh becky darling don't leave us!
Another Mike:
That's just bullshit. McCain wanted lots of townhalls because townhalls are his best debate format. It was as cynical of a ploy as it would have been for Obama to propose a joint tour of giving speeches.
I'd like to see any evidence other than assertions from his campaign staff that McCain is particularly good in town hall debates. I guess we'll know tonight. I still think the main reason for the town hall ploy was that McCain wanted to get in front of the much bigger audiences that Obama would attract.
Jeremy said...
May I ask? Why do people keep asking Nate or Sean questions in here?
Does he ever bother to answer them?
This isn't to criticize, it's just to state that I've seen hundreds of questions directed to Nate (who kicks mighty ass in what he does, mind you), and never seen a response.
hundreds of questions asked is actually dozens of questions repeated by different people.
and yes every now and then a question is answered in the blogs, and more often a question is mentioned in the post a couple of days afterwards.
Or 'McHussein' to be fair and balanced with regard to these two great candidates.
Nah... That sounds like some sort of Halal Hamburger.
Interesting Crosstab In WI SurveUSA
29-34 O+1
35-29 O+7
50-54 O+17
65+ O+16
Obama doing better with older voters than younger. The young numbers look low but the older folks may be really concerned about their 401K's and retirement savings, also Mccain medicare cut plan reported the other day.
Obama also + 16 among Indies.
Wow. I never thought I'd see the day that Americans - even the vilest liberal trash on here - would adopt the name Hussein as a gesture to endorse a president because of their utter hatred and contempt for this country and to stand in defiance of President Bush or Senator McCain.
This site easily has the most hate-filled Americans - far worse than DailyKos - and not only was this my first and last post ever, I will never visit this site again. I can't bear to watch traitors perpetuate hate about this country.
PeteKent has moved to the State of Denial, where all the True Believers in St. John the Maverick and Spunky Sarah reside.
Nate, Could you give a rating for the accuracy of Diageo polls? I do not see it on your list. Thanks
those WI internals have to be backwards
RedShift,
If you don't remember, Obama was supposed to be horrible without a teleprompter in debate format. That went out the window.
My guess is, with what a professional campaign Obama has been running so far, he will be ready for tonight.
The State of Denial- that's where Hillary put up her last stand
Get a life, Gwen.
Actually, Pennsylvania does have early voting. Being the first Tuesday after the first Monday (albeit in October) it was a fitting day for me to post my absentee ballot.
Gwen - don't let the door hit your ass on the way out..
PeteKent perhaps you should read up on your beloved Palin: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/07/palins_unamerican/
do you really want that woman to hold the second highest office in your country?
"Gwen Jones said...
Wow. I never thought I'd see the day that Americans - even the vilest liberal trash on here - would adopt the name Hussein as a gesture to endorse a president because of their utter hatred and contempt for this country and to stand in defiance of President Bush or Senator McCain."
Go back to your cave troglodyte.
Good luck with Colbert, Nate.
Hmm, it seems Ohio is in fact coming around now. There were 3 recent polls with +6 Obama? Well, it would have been strange if not. Rasmussen´s Ohio model must be off, sorry no other explanation. Ohio "should" be showing a trend towards Obama, especially if MI and PA show a double-digit lead for Obama.
It seems Minnesota and Wisconsin are slipping away from McCain, too. The number of Obama´s double-digit leads in Kerry states is striking. The Republican appeal to moderates must be collapsing.
Well, I wouldn´t expect anything else. The McCain camp seems to be shrinking down to the radical, racist, stupid white core. Every independent/moderate mus tbe scratching his head when they hear stuff like "Kill him!" or "Obama is a terrorist". However, I hope that these guys don´t give up on McCain, because if they think that they can´t win this by legal means anymore, they will do something illegal...
gwen jones
the point is the prejudice against "Hussein" as if it somehow matters or makes Barack Obama evil because the name is associated with Saddam Hussein.
We are diluting the ignorance and prejudice by showing that the name "Hussein" is just a name and not a tool of fear mongering to any sensible American.
but since your dumb ass didnt get it....bye.
I am not sure that the town hall format favors either of the candidates. Almost anyone can look good if all the questions are slam dunks from your supporters. The group tonight is supposedly undecideds, not counting the cherrypicked questions from Brokaw. Obama needs to calmly answer the questions...in bullet points, not long, professorial dissertations. He must project more emotion about the tragedy of the current atate of the economy and how it was a direct result of Bush/McCain/GOP failures, but at the same time point out what his economic recovery plan would be.
I am not sure that the town hall format favors either of the candidates. Almost anyone can look good if all the questions are slam dunks from your supporters. The group tonight is supposedly undecideds, not counting the cherrypicked questions from Brokaw. Obama needs to calmly answer the questions...in bullet points, not long, professorial dissertations. He must project more emotion about the tragedy of the current atate of the economy and how it was a direct result of Bush/McCain/GOP failures, but at the same time point out what his economic recovery plan would be.
Gwen - I agree with mason. Get a life.
What, exactly, does the name "Hussein" have to do with the price of fish as regards Patriotism?
My oh my, where have all of the conservatives gone?
RCP now has NH and MN as SOLID OBAMA! This debate tonight can put it away for Barack. I'm getting greedy, I want IN AND GA!
John McCain should be glad the election is not Dec. 4. If it was, he'd have to spend money to defend states like TX, MT, AND AZ!
Can you tell I'm excited?
For whatever reason, SUSA has often showed low support for Obama among the 18-29 group. They have this same thing happening in almost all their MN polls, including the recent one showing McCain +1. Personally, I think they're missing Obama support because of the cell phone effect.
A Description of Partial Birth Abortion
Barack Obama has stated that his highest priority and first act will be to sign the "Freedom of Choice Act", a bill he co-sponsored, which bill would invalidate virtually all state and federal limitations on pre-birth murder, including this procedure:
"Dr. Haskell went in with forceps and grabbed the baby's legs and pulled them down into the birth canal. Then he delivered the baby's body and the arms; everything but the head. The doctor kept the head right inside the uterus. The baby's little fingers were clasping and unclasping, and his little feet were kicking. Then the doctor stuck the scissors in the back of his head, and the baby's arms jerked out, like a startle reaction, like a flinch, like a baby does when he thinks he is going to fall....The doctor opened up the scissors, stuck a high-powered suction tube into the opening, and sucked the baby's brains out. Now the baby went completely limp. He cut the umbilical cord and delivered the placenta. He threw the baby in a pan, along with the placenta and the instruments he had just used."
PeteKent said...
The Hidden Vote
October 7, 2008 1:46 PM
***********
Dear Lord,Peter,listen...
normally I take this site in "read only mode" but I mast break the silence this time:
I commited myself to read all your post.
Did you wrote it by yourself or did you copy&paste it ????
in both case:
get a life!
"Wow. I never thought I'd see the day that Americans - even the vilest liberal trash on here - would adopt the name Hussein as a gesture to endorse a president because of their utter hatred and contempt for this country and to stand in defiance of President Bush or Senator McCain.
This site easily has the most hate-filled Americans - far worse than DailyKos - and not only was this my first and last post ever, I will never visit this site again. I can't bear to watch traitors perpetuate hate about this country."
You're a fucking stupid piece of shit. The name "Hussein" automatically means terrorist now? You're a fucking dumbass. Go masturbate while listening to Rush and get out.
Btw, maybe SUSA changed their turnout/likely voter model? They have been relatively positive for Obama after they came out with their +20 McCain NC poll.
RE: the question about what the craziest 10% of simulations looks like in Obama's favor, you just need to look at the percentages by state on the left of this page and see states like GA, TX, LA, MS, AR, ND, SD, MT, AZ, etc. going to Obama in addition to the usual suspects. That's how the model gets into the 420+ EV range for Obama.
@The Raj Man said...
"Could you please explain why your model favors Obama in Indiana when most polls show McCain ahead? Granted, it's close, but the state has been consistently red...Thanks."
IN is in the tossup category because the results (even those showing Mac with a lead) are well within the MOE, margin of error. So, given the trend adjustment and regression Obama has a slight edge in the simulation with a win % at .54. But all in all it is currently a toss-up, in spite of the fact that it has hisotrically been red.
Just A Guy Who Lives in My Neighborhood
Obama is not a leader and is not by virtue of experience qualified to be President. Worse his background and bio remain hazy with numerous shadowy figures threatening to burst from the periphery to center stage. The task of the McCain-Palin campaign is to raise the legitimate doubts about who Obama really is that the mainstream media refuses to consider. I am glad Palin brought up what she did over the weekend concerning Obama's terrorist pal. The most telling condemnation of Obama is that he dismisses this man with whom he has had an extensive and many years long relationship as "just a guy who lives in my neighborhood". He should not be allowed to get away with that sort of deception. Sarah Palin, the Million Dollar Baby in this race, is not about to let him.
Republican AGs and Secys of State have been working hard to eliminate black & blue voters from their rolls. Colorado, for example, is a key swing state where almost 20% have been struck from the rolls. See Greg Palast's stealbackyourvote.org
Are the "registered voters" being polled certain they are still "registered voters"??? Do the numbers take these shenanigans into account? You think the map is really going to look on Nov. 4 like the one on this site??
Redshift,
You're probably right that McCain wanted to take advantage of Obama's crowd drawing ability. I had not thought of that angle. I still think town hall is his best format vis-a-vis Obama. Whether he is better than Obama at that format remains to be seen.
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