Are John McCain's negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama's support? They certainly aren't yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year:
You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here ... but the point is, there are a lot of favorable results these days for Barack Obama.
The larger Obama's margin in the popular vote becomes (and over the course of the past several weeks, he's been gaining a full a point on McCain roughly every three days) the less the relative positioning of the states matters. For John McCain to get back into this race, he is going to need some dramatic events to occur, and we don't know in which types of states such events might have a differential impact; something like an outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East could make a very different electoral footprint than new revelations about Barack Obama and William Ayers.
For that reason, the proper strategy is probably now to play a fairly large map; Obama in particular wants to keep as many doors open as possible if and when something bad happens to his campaign.
For the time being, however, John McCain is facing third and long -- and appears that he's about to get sacked.
10.07.2008
Today's Polls, 10/6
@ 12:40 AM
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Thank God. Sooo tired.....
Felipe, you're a tool.
Has Obama closed enough in Georgia to scare McCain to send some troops there? Also, how close is the Georgia senate race to flipping? How much hedging is the model still doing? And a separate question, does difference between the ground games get reflected in polls or not? Or does the ground game effect simply increase the actual likelihood of someone voting without affecting anything else?
Nate
You have to make a choice: Media Star (including Comedy Central?!) or our dealer. Please don't break our hearts.
Great job tonight on Olbermann, But say "Good evening" and stop saying "ya know," Okay?
Is Lockheed Martin a wise choice to run a DOJ phone bank? Heartless and Brainless has the story.
voted absentee in MO today.
chalk one up for the big O.
That's it!??? 5 paragraphs? Really? Are you kidding?
Aiggggghhh!!!!!!
Holy cow.
I'm glad to see that +6 in Colorado. It seems like Obama is having a hard time gaining in the West (CO, NV, NM) even as his national numbers have been skyrocketing. Do you think that's a Palin effect, or does everyone west of the Rockies just not care about the economy?
I'd guess that GA +7 McCain means that the GA-Sen numbers are neck and neck.
Geez. Almost three times the chance that Obama gets a landslide as McCain wins election?
lwphd said...
Has Obama closed enough in Georgia to scare McCain to send some troops there?
I think if he wasn't stretched far beyond his capacity already it might scare him into sending some people there. Given the current environment however, I think he's more likely to be cursing and breaking things.
Hot damn. I could be happy with another month of these results.
Congrats, Felipe. You're teh awesomest.
Nate -- have you considered re-rating the pollsters? I know you adjust for house effect, which helps. But SurveyUSA, for example, has has such strange outliers recently, both in Obama's direction and McCain's. I know they had some results in the primaries that were almost as awesome as Felipe, but since then they've seemed to falter some. By comparing a pollster's state by state result to each state's contemporaneous poll averages and/or the 538 regression, I think you might find that the quality ratings of some of the pollsters might change.
Are there enough blue pixels to paint the whole map BLUE!!!
(Also, any idea what's going on with the disparity between the Ras and ABC polls in OH?)
Oh my god, this site is like pornography. Nate, please stop keeping me up this late.
Here's a question I'm wondering: Obama's support is wide, but how deep is it? The fact that Obama has risen so fast to such utter dominance in the polls -- up 12 in VA, for chrissakes! -- makes me worry that these impressions are still malleable. I also worry that these impressions seem largely driven by external factors -- the economy. (Though Obama has, IMHO, been deft in tying the natural Democratic advantage on the economy VERY explicitly to contrasts between himself and McCain, so that it goes from being a natural drift to a force he can own and wield.) Some of this is obviously me performing the customary Holy-Crap-Dems-Never-Win-Do-We Jitters, but really -- how much of this support has solidified and what's the chance it could all come crashing down? And how do you measure that? (I know "undecides" are shrinking...)
I really think that, come November 4th, Obama will win Georgia. It may seem like a long shot right now but this smear campaign that McCain is running will probably end up backfiring and most likely increase Obama's national lead.
When the economy is cratering, you sound incredibly out of touch by bringing up your opponents old connections and it won't work. This strategy might work when the economy is good and we aren't at war but this simply isn't the case and, because of this simple fact, McCain made a mistake by starting this line of attack.
The pattern I see in tonight's polls is Rasmussen appears more prone to push people into supporting one candidate or the other and not undecided.
thanks Nate!
would you be willing to include the weighted average of the national poll margins at the end of your daily chart?
Someone tell me if I'm characterizing this about right. John McCain has officially went for the campaign strategy hidden behind the spot labeled "Break Glass In Case of Emergency".
Hmmm...The Liberal Party of Canada is advertising on this site due to our upcoming election. (anyone else notice the Bush/Harper ads)
I must not be the only Canadian who visits this site if the LPC thinks its a wise place to invest there minuscule amounts of advertising dollars.
Do you think Obama has a shot in WV? I'd have a heart attack if I saw it turn blue on election night.
I'm going to wait until later in the week (especially after the debate) to begin to feel optimistic that McCain's attacks aren't going to work.
Did Obama hire Julius Peppers?
Keeping me going for another few hours.
The New Mexico poll is significant. The pollster (Research & Polling) is a a very good pollster; in 2006, nearly every race was within the margin of error, statewide and congressional.
He even nailed a 75-25 (approximate numbers) race in NM-03. Was two points off on NM-01 (said it was 48-46 in the last poll, it ended up 50-50).
Encouraging numbers all around the inner Mountain West, especially when compared to 2004 numbers.
Would the Carville/Greenberg Ohio poll be included here? Obama +7
http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/obama-winning-ohio-100408v3.pdf
A predict McCain pulls out of PA by mid next week.
"Has Obama closed enough in Georgia to scare McCain to send some troops there?"
McCain has way bigger problems on his hands than being ahead by just 7 points in Georgia. He needs to stop the bleeding before taking the multivitamin "just in case". His campaign is incompetent, but I doubt it is that incompetent.
_______________________________
"I'm glad to see that +6 in Colorado. It seems like Obama is having a hard time gaining in the West (CO, NV, NM) even as his national numbers have been skyrocketing. Do you think that's a Palin effect, or does everyone west of the Rockies just not care about the economy?"
I think the West has fewer "swing" voters. The conservatives are very conservative and the liberals are very liberal. I think there is much less middle in the west than in the midwest.
What percentage of voters are still undecided? And what are the percentages in individual states? Does anyone know where I can find that information?
Dan, one of my biggest concerns as well. However I imagine this close to an election we're going to see people become increasingly cemented in their decision on who to vote for. They expect it to get ugly and stupid, which potentially means people will start to tune out and go with who they decided around now.
Also, Obama knows how to run a campaign. I think we can all start to get ready for some serious worldwide partying come Nov 4th (November 5th my time). Anyone in Melbourne on this site? I'm organising one hell of a shindig :-)
Nate,
Do you not count the Democracy Corps polls? I didn't think that they were internal to campaigns, since they maintain their own website and seem to post their results. In addition to the national race (O +3) that was up on Pollster & RCP, they also have an OH poll showing Obama up by 6. Crosstabs are here. Perhaps you just overlooked them, as they don't seem to be internal polls as far as I can tell.
Does anyone have a tissue? I just made a mess!
Nate it is cruel sport holding on to these numbers til 11PM..I love you anyways..
I agree with the person above - McSame is booted out of PA by next week
If Georgia has shifted like this, I wonder what that means about Texas? Texas hasn't really been polled enough to tell trends, but it looks like in both states, the Obama momentum has shifted about ten points. Not quite enough to make either one truly competitive, just yet.
McCain needs another Hail Mary, but at this point another Hail Mary is more likely to hurt his campaign than help it.
Going really negative won't be enough, because Obama can simply go, "McCain is trying to change the topic." And given the econonomic meltdown, most people will agree.
You have CNN at +11 in the list of national polls but I see a =8 in their poll. Are you using registered voters instead of likely voters?
Has Obama closed enough in Georgia to scare McCain to send some troops there?
He wouldn't do that. If he loses Georgia, he'll have already lost Virginia and North Carolina (and probably Florida). He has to clamp down on those states first.
Jen - thanks, that makes sense. Guess I'll just be happy that the mountain states are so stable!
I doubt McCain will bother to send troops to Georgia (at least the one that is the US state...heh). If Georgia goes for Obama, McCain is probably going to lose by about 200 EV's anyway.
Obama probably won't invest much else in Georgia either for the same reasons, although he probably has at least some infrastructure still in place from his recent pullout there.
I'm not so sure if the primary intention of these attacks is to affect polls directly at this point. When people step into that booth, people (not us, I think we've made up our minds) will ask themselves, who can I trust to run this country.
I'm guessing McCain is going to try and make Obama's past associations part of that question.
Will this overpower the big issue of the economy when voters pull that lever?
My guess is no.
Not after they've seen Obama cool as a cucumber through all three debates and this financial crisis that is hitting EVERYONE's 401k plans right now.
What's that my parents used to tell me? Oh yeah; don't spit in the wind!
Maybe McShame should've listened when his parents told him the same thing!
Thanks Nate. Good MSNBC interview.
GoBama!
The polls are starting to suggest that McCain should retake the class on strategy vs. tactics, and Palin should learn the skills of a Community Organizer!
I won't be resting easy though or stopping the GOTV surge until Nov. 5th.
As the blue spreads my thirst for polls in TX, WV, MT, AZ, SC (no matter how inconsequential to the outcome of the election) grows exponentially. Surprise 'Bama victories in any of these states is yet another reason to stay up all night watching the election.
This is the second of three posts on this. I shall try to post them early in the comments section of a topic that will be widely read.
I am Jewish (for that miniscule number who care my posting name is a tri-lingual pun on my Hebrew name) and we in the High Holy Days. The tenth day of that season is Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, by which date we are supposed to have atoned for our sins. But it is written, “For the sins of man against God, Yom Kippur atones, but for the sins of man against man, Yom Kippur does not atone.” I am obligated to seek forgiveness from those I might have harmed or offended. I know that I have sometimes the internet equivalent of an overly sharp tongue, and that when I am tired or stressed I tend to go overboard in my comments. If there are any out there whom I have offended, I ask your forgiveness.
Jewish law requires that if forgiveness is not granted I must ask three times. After than, I have fulfilled my obligation. This is why this will be posted three times.
Shalom y'all
Well, I understand the comments about Georgia being too far down in the order of tipping point states to matter much, but resources DO matter as do appearances. It is entirely possible to setup a Maginot line where McC holds firmly in SC and Florida because he devotes resources there, but a CNN and Rasmussen poll showing GA bluer than NC due to neglect would be a real nation-wide buzz kill. I agree in general with a tipping point centered analysis, but I think maybe it should be plural as in tipping pointS. Unanswered campaigning in Idaho may be allowable and even desirable to McC if Obama were stupid enough. But is that true in a place like GA?
Li said: What percentage of voters are still undecided? And what are the percentages in individual states? Does anyone know where I can find that information?
Pollster.com has a pretty good graph for national undecideds here
Obama is still running GOTV in GA and has still has some paid staff there. GA polls should really include Barr to get an real accurrate result. If obama is down 7 and Barr pulls 4-5% and a big GOTV and AA turnout it could be close.
Any word on when we can see some new polls out in WV? It's been nearly two weeks and I'm dying for an update. I know we can flip this state!
"If Georgia has shifted like this, I wonder what that means about Texas? Texas hasn't really been polled enough to tell trends, but it looks like in both states, the Obama momentum has shifted about ten points. Not quite enough to make either one truly competitive, just yet."
_______________________________
Good point. I almost see Texas flipping before Georgia. I have family there, and it is can be blue. It has big cities, people relocated from Katrina, and a very large Hispanic population. It is not as red as most people think, and until Bushie's coattails, had a blue state legislature. I think a flip without a "native" son running is far more likely than 10%. I would almost give 25% odds. That would totally fry my father's second and third wives who are hard core Texas Republicans. Sweet.
Kermitfrog:
Read the article on how he rates the pollsters. He cannot do a new assessment until after the election, since the rating compares the final poll to the actual results.
hector.tobar saidYou have CNN at +11 in the list of national polls but I see a =8 in their poll. Are you using registered voters instead of likely voters?
I believe Nate is using the version of the poll with 3rd parties, which is O+11.
Jeff said...
voted absentee in MO today.
chalk one up for the big O.
October 6, 2008 11:43 PM
Chalk one up for Overstock.com???
Haha, j/k. I sent in my Obama absentee vote for PA a week ago or so...
Nate comes through again with the late edition of the day's polls...wooooo!
Liam Hedge is hosting the melbourne party, i am having a big one in Sydney.
Seriously, an obama victory is gonna be like at the end of the return of the jedi with all the cities of the world partying. Maybe we could blow up sean hannity a la the death star as well
My previous comment shold have been: "...a CNN and Rasmussen poll showing GA bluer than NC two weeks before the election due to neglect would be a real nation-wide buzz kill for Republicans."
If McCain hasn't begun to turn this around by Friday, it won't happen short of a full scale international war, a major terorist attack on American soil of the proverbial bed companion of young boy or dead girl. Not that these would necessarily do it, but it would mean that McCain would have a chance.l
This late in the season it is much harder to change people's minds.
Are you quantifying any differences in ground game between the campaigns? Or is that taken into account in the simulation in some other form?
Also, could you show the 2004 poll trend line in you Super Tracker? It would really help get a sense of how much the current lead really counts.
Been looking forward to these all day. I wasn't disappointed. I wonder when the slope of Obama's daily trendline flattens out?
Cossack you are not the only Canadian around.
I see NDP ads on several American political blogs (Huffington, TPM, etc.)
We called an election in mid-September and it will be all over October 14th (heck I already voted) - hard to get too excited when they all get in - just with slightly different percentages.
I've been following Obama since he won Iowa - I even contributed to his campaign (bought a T-Shirt)
His rise to power has really restored my respect for the American people.
Question: Why does the Obama win percentage sometimes change by small amounts before the new polls go up? I check the site often enough to notice...
franith said...
Maybe we could blow up sean hannity a la the death star as well
That would be the event of a lifetime. A massive bloom of red fireworks as their poster boy self destructs from the inside out. Glorious. God I'm partisan sometimes.
franith - tell me more about the Sydney party...
"What percentage of voters are still undecided?"
They're not the be-all and end-all, but Rasmussen in this morning's tracking report gave a pretty decent answer to this question, at least in terms of nationally:
"Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Fourteen percent (14%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate."
As somebody above noted, Ras is actually a little more aggressive than some other pollsters in pushing undecideds to see which way they're leaning, so the 4% "undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate" is almost certainly too low. Combined with uncertain voters, Rasmussen has 18% who haven't 100% made up their mind (or are going to vote 3rd-party) with Obama currently leading among these voters 8-6.
Also, did anybody else notice, the RCP national average for Obama is now at 49.8. If he gains two points total in the four trackers they track (Gallup, Rasmussen, Diageo, Battleground) tomorrow, he'll be at 50%. In fact, if you do a weighted average of the polls shown by RCP, weighting by sample size, you get an average for Obama of 50.2.
Liam, thanks. That's reassuring and has the added virtue of seeming true.
I guess the key question is -- when have a sufficient number of voters made their candidate/partisan preference their "pivot point"? For example, imagine there were to be another terror attack. What proportion would base their support of Obama on their view of the attack -- versus those who would base their view of the attack on their support of Obama?
Actually, Brain Sanderoff's poll in NM (Research & Polling) is the most favorable to McCain of any recent NM poll.
I keep thinking "wow, it's in the bag, I can't believe it" and I get all excited
and then I remember we have a month until election day and guess what, 1 month ago, McCain was leading
So like all Democrats I'm VERY skeptical
but as history tells it the closer you get to election the harder it is to sway
At least I hope that's how it is
Praying every day that this just stays as it is and Obama has a landslide
I can't really imagine a sudden thing happening (other than a bombing or a war) that could help mccain enough
he's looking worse and worse
that youtube video of him going "heeeehhhh" it's so embarassing
but hilarious
Loralee, I imagine because he runs the simulations which update on the website first. Although more than likely its just Nate's way of peaking our interest as it gets down to those glorious numbers.
Watched Fox News a bit and it was fun to see Sean Hannity getting all flummoxed by the poll numbers.
Pulling for Obama and I am cautiously optimistic at this point. I want to believe that he is on the verge of closing out Virginia, but I lived there for nine years and just cannot accept it, yet.
Bottom line is that Obama has pretty much closed out New Mexico and Iowa - if he locks in New Hampshire and Colorado, he's in.
Let's stop going about "landslides" here - it's just not going to happen. But I think we can break 270 - recent history says that's all you need.
Watched Fox News a bit and it was fun to see Sean Hannity getting all flummoxed by the poll numbers.
Pulling for Obama and I am cautiously optimistic at this point. I want to believe that he is on the verge of closing out Virginia, but I lived there for nine years and just cannot accept it, yet.
Bottom line is that Obama has pretty much closed out New Mexico and Iowa - if he locks in New Hampshire and Colorado, he's in.
Let's stop going about "landslides" here - it's just not going to happen. But I think we can break 270 - recent history says that's all you need.
+Question: Why does the Obama win percentage sometimes change by small amounts before the new polls go up? I check the site often enough to notice...+
I suspect the time-decay function proceeds apace, whether or not new polling numbers have been posted. (I'm assuming the Obama win percentage is rising eversoslightly when you see these changes.)
The super tracker trend line, a few days ago, was starting to flatten out, but now it's not plateauing ... it's continuing on its upward trajectory! Go 'Bama!
test...
Dan,
tom beat me to attempting to answer that question. What is even better is he backed it up with numbers :-) I think there is one pivotal point about this election which isnt reflected in the polls but is in Sean's great posts as he travels around. If 2% of McCain voters decide it's not worth going out on election day Obama gets a 1% advantage across the board. Chances are, its going to be even higher than that. Answering questions over a phone is much easier than getting out of work to go fill out a ballot. However, Obama's team is excited. He is the epitomy of charisma and brilliance. I think this over based on that. However, if I was in America I wouldn't be sleeping till that whole map was painted blue.
A message needs to be sent: Never again will the last 8 years be repeated and a party will get away with it. Never again.
This has been said by many, but I would be very interested to see your tipping point map (indeed, the other maps, such as the return on investment map) broken down by candidate, as clearly there is a huge dependence on which result is represented.
Jen said:
"I think the West has fewer "swing" voters. The conservatives are very conservative and the liberals are very liberal. I think there is much less middle in the west than in the midwest."
My fiance thinks its because the economies out here are fairly solid, and that we like Obama plenty, but Democrats out West concern themselves with issues like the environment and constitutional protection, over the economy. So, the states out here have seen his support for things that are important to us, and we're fine with that, but it doesn't persuade anyone new when he talks about people in Ohio losing manufacturing jobs.
I think Obama's money would be well spent to send 5-10 paid organizers to the TX border region and San Antonio a month out from the election, as well as a few to Austin and Houston to run up totals there.
I strongly suspect it could go blue in this environment, particularly if someone taps the massive number of voters in the valley who typically have low turnout rates, but would respond well to a broad family-based GOTV effort down there.
PS - Born and raised in TX.
Kerry States 72% (252 EV) Plus
Iowa 96% (259)
New Mexico 90% (264)
Colorado 85% (273)
Virginia 81% (286)
Florida 73% (313)
Ohio 70% (333)
Nevada 70% (338)
North Carolina 62% (353)
Missouri 55% (364)
CLINTON 1992 WIN (370EV)
Indiana 54% (375)
OFFICIAL BLOWOUT (375 EV);CLINTON 1996 WIN (379 EV)
West Virginia 31% (380)
NE Omaha District 26% (381)
Montana 22% (384)
North Dakota 20% (387)
NE East District 16% (388)
Georgia 15% (403)
Arkansas 13% (409)
Lousiana 11% (418)
BUSH 1988 WIN (426 EV)
Texas 10% (452)
South Dakota 10% (455)
Mississippi 9% (461)
Arizona 7% (471)
South Carolina 6% (479)
Kentucky 6% (487)
REAGAN 1980 WIN (489 EV)
Kansas 5% (493)
Alaska 4% (496)
Tennessee 4% (507)
Nebraska 3% (509)
Alabama 2% (518)
Wyoming 1% (521)
Idaho 1% (525)
REAGAN 1984 WIN (525 EV)
Oklahoma 1% (532)
Utah 0% (537)
NE West District 0% (538)
Holy crap, that's alot of blue!
So, the super tracker has Obama just over 6 points ahead. The McCain campaign is now going nuclear because going negative worked for him during the summer.
In the summer, McCain knocked 4 points off Obama in two months. Now, he's has less than a month to knock off more than 6 points.
McCain and Palin are going negative the likes we've never seen. She practically called Obama a terrorist! One of her supporters wanted to kill him. One of McCain's supporters called Obama a terrorist, and McCain said nothing.
This is insane, but I'm curious to see if it will work. Maybe the McCain campaign is hoping that one of his more deranged supporters will try to remove the "Muslim terrorist," and they can put up their hands and say "we had nothing to do with it, promise!"
Who in their right mind would want to win from a wave of hate? Is that really what's best for the country?
I consider myself a moderate that leans toward the libertarian side of things, and the McCain campaign utterly disgusts me. I cannot vote for them in good conscience because of the way they campaign.
Maybe, in the future (hopefully the not too distant) the Republicans will dump the racists and the religious zealots and reembrace their libertarian principles.
Joe Benevides,
It is amazing how the sayings are similar in several languages.
Back home, we used to say, don't lie on your back and spit.
Pick gravity or wind
RCP now shows Obama leading (RCP average) in the 6 battleground states of CO, OH, FL, NV, MO, AND VA! The only "toss-up" state in which McCain still holds a (slim) lead is Indiana at just 2.2%.
Also, VA is on the brink of becoming "leaning Obama", giving him 13 more electoral votes (by their projection) and putting him over 270!
I don't know if I'm going to be able to sleep tonight!
Nicholas, I think I'd seen you post that list before and hadn't fully understood it. Now that I've wrapped my head around it, good work. Nice list to have handy. Thanks
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
Obama 364, McCain 174
Oct 6 Polling Update
Nice post Nicholas. How I would love to see Barack Obama best Bill Clinton's two victories! Can you imagine how pissed off good ol' Bill would be?
Figure a $50,000 to $100,000 off-odds bet in TX could nab more EV's than NV, CO, NM, NH, and IA combined. Seems worth it to me under the current environment, if only as an investment in a further mandate come inauguration day, as well as some psych-ops currently. Think how the media would eat it up if Obama announced it was sending people into TX, even if there is no chance. That would sell the line that the Rep titanic is sinking more than any ad buy ever could.
Hey Cossack and any other Canadians reading this site: if you're interested in maintaining the minority status quo in Canada, this website will help you decide if you should vote your heart or vote strategically:
http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/
And this Canuck would like to say thanks to Nate and Sean for running the crack cocaine of Presidential polling sites.
peace,
dt
@Cossack
The banner ad is a goggle ad which may well be sensitive to your isp location, iow it probably knows where you are connecting from. Ain't the internet great?
gregm, tomthress, thanks for answering my questions. 18% undecided makes me very nervous.
Meanwhile, quiet quiet quiet here in south Texas, at least when it comes to the presidential election. The only political ads to speak of are for a handful of local races (mostly Ciro Rodriguez), almost zero yard signs, very few bumper stickers. Only token coverage on the nightly news.
Over the past week I have driven out to a number of local state parks (Seminole Canyon, Pedernales Falls, Lost Maples, Palmetto State Park), and out in the countryside it's solid solid McCain country, with big blue McCain/Palin placards and signs, absolutely no Obama presence to speak of. Then again, that's rural Texas, which is about as solid Republican as you can get, but also very lightly populated (the county seat of Bandera County, for example, has less than a thousand residents). The cities, on the other hand, are a different matter - much more Democratic, much more mixed. On election day Texas will be like most other states, a solid sea of red for most counties, except the population centers (here that would be Dallas, Harris, Travis, Bexar, Tarrant, Collin, Denton counties, etc) that could be dots of blue on the map. The difference being these islands of blue have a ten to a hundred times the population of the rural counties.
But while the presidential election rages on in swing states, it's all quiet here in Texas.
David & Karen and Cossack,
Another Canadian here, and probably one of many. Fortunately, I use ad block, so the only place I see political ads are on television. Harper just ran a couple on comedy central during The Daily Show.
Thank god our elections only last a month. They already cost something like 80 million dollars to the taxpayer. 80 million to give us basically the same result we had when the election was called. Can you imagine if they lasted a year?
Cloud9ine: Funny! Now you've forced me to get all ethnically correct. Translated from Portuguese my ancestors said "Don't spit up, or you'll get spit on". The English version "Don't spit in the wind" just makes more sense to English speakers. Okay; now I've been true to my heritage. :o)
I refuse to throw on my victory hat until the poll numbers show that this McCain character attack isnt working. The republicans are the BEST OUT THERE at finding a way to squeeze and fear the electorate right when all the bones are on the line.
Lets wait until polls show up this sunday.
All you Obama fans and political junkies should check out www.270towin.com. It has EV maps dating all the way back to 1789, plus an interactive feature that lets you paint the EV map for 2008. It's so amazing to see how close Obama is and how many paths to victory he has!
A DKos thread asks which poll result from today is the biggest shocker. The results, by far: NC and VA.
Why have NC and VA moved out of proportion to the rest of the country?
Two tactical decisions:
1. On the day after Lehman Bros collapsed, Obama and Biden went to Charlotte, North Carolina, the headquarters of Bank of America, and gave knockout speeches about the banking problem. Totally under the national radar, but huge local coverage. The result was a very rapid blue shift.
2. A few days later, McCain parachutes into the bailout discussions in DC, but ends up with nothing to show for it. For most of us, nationally, he loses a little credibility. But in the Washington local news zone, which is mostly in VA, they are very cynical about showboating politics. The result, northern Virginians get days and days of bad media for McCain. Again, rapid blue shift.
If McCain loses a close election, I'm betting that these two tactical decisions are the cause.
From So-Fla, split screen two nights ago, Cubs meltdown on one (sorry Nate), CBS local on the other running solid Obama health care ads every break, nothing from McCain.
Smart friend from no-Cal offered the analogy a few weeks ago of Obama playing with a lead like Tiger on Sunday (please excuse the superficial racial resemblance): plays smart, cool, steady and ultimately sort of boring golf, goading opponents into taking risks and making mistakes -- which McCain has seems to have done at least three times in the last 6 weeks: 1) Palin; 2) "suspending" the campaign; 3) the Ayers gambit, which seems like a total non-starter and has soured the media and tarnished the brand even more.
Sideline: Obviously, huge course advantage here for O from the meltdown which now seems to be global -- let's not forget there was some serious luck or good fortune involved -- which I say with some trepidaition, being a new homeowner with a pretty stiff mortgage, perhaps the last given out for a piece.
Back to the play: stay cool, steady, focussed, eyes on the prize. Less than a month to go.
"Nice post Nicholas. How I would love to see Barack Obama best Bill Clinton's two victories! Can you imagine how pissed off good ol' Bill would be?"
_________________________________
Even more pissed because Obama is likely to have a majority and not just a plurality.
pollster.com finally painted CO and FL light blue, passing the 270 threshold. Just a matter of time, VA, NC, OH, NV follow.
Surprising the map still has a big red areas, guys! Keep going!! Obama 375 EV!!!
@cossack, I think that's "Canadian perspective." I see ndp.ca links on my HuffPo pages, too. I'm in BC.
"m said...
thanks Nate!
would you be willing to include the weighted average of the national poll margins at the end of your daily chart?"
Nate, I'd like to second this. Could you put the regression/trend analysis on the daily national poll averages like you do for state averages? I know I can sorta figure out the end result by looking at the graph, but sometimes it's hard to pick out a specific day's point.
Thanks, and keep up the great work!
Nate, you gotta smile on camera more buddy! Good job otherwise - Olbermann clearly loves you! :D
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/#27057066
for those who missed it.
To whoever asked the question about the model taking ground game in consideration:
It really can't be done now, since much of the ground game does not show up the the polls, and there is no way to measure its impact as yet. There are verifiable results showing that it can make a difference, and lots of anecdotal material, but as yet no way of predicting with any precision what effect it will have.
A classic story about the impact of the ground game was told by one of my professors in graduate school, Sam Eldersveld. Ann Arbor was, in general, a republican bastion until the 60's. Yet Sam got himself elected major (I think it was in 1948 but I'm not sure.)
He built his campaign around the ground game. The Republican candidate had won with moderate ease two years earlier. That year, however, the GOP candidate got roughly the same number of votes as two years earlier but the Democratic turnout increased by about 20% and Sam queaked out a win. The city went Republican again in two years becasue sam couldn't afford to give up his professorship (he had been on leave to the two years) and didn't run for re-election.
On rereading this, I realize that if I am right about the year, '46 was a strong Republican year and, athough I believe MI went for Dewey, 1948 was significantly better for the Dems.
If anyone wakes me from this wet dream, I will not be responsible for my actions.
I think McCain's at 4th and long, not 3rd and long.
Re: Pollster.com's national map.
I'm surprised Colorado and Florida are now blue, but Virginia and New Hampshire aren't. Their model seems a little weird.
Hey just so you know, Canadians who mention donating to the Obama campaign... the Republican party filed a complaint against the campaign for accepting donations from foreign nationals.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/05/rnc_to_file_fec_complaint_on_o.html?hpid=topnews
Clark Miller - Obama and Biden had a joint appearance in VA the day after the first debate, too. Dunno about NC, but I think the extensive canvassing and voter-contact work here in Virginia may have set up a lot of people who were willing to consider Obama, but were hesitant to commit until they saw his calm, "presidential" performance in the debate.
"Has Obama closed enough in Georgia to scare McCain to send some troops there?"
Not likely. McCain didn't send troops to North Carolina or Indiana a while back, when they seemed to be close. And if Georgia flips, Obama necessarily wins. But then the McCain campaign is ran by a bunch of idiots (they opened a few offices in California, no?).
How great it would be to see GA, one of only 5 states that went for George Wallace in 1968, go to Barack Obama 40 years later!
Nate's post on the Battleground (GWU/Terrance) poll answered a question that had been burning in my mind. Today I went to their fresh revelation of internal numbers to see if they'd shaped up at all.
9/25 Public Tables
Respondents by Age (n=1009)
18-34 17%
35-44 12%
45-64 40%
65+ 31%
10/3 Public Tables
Respondent by Age (n=805)
18-34 22%
35-44 20%
45-64 36%
65+ 22%
2004 Turnout per Census Bureau via Nate
18-34 26%
35-44 17%
45-64 38%
65+ 19%
Looks like there's been some progress. Explains why their poll has fallen more into line with the crowd.
This is probably insurmountable for McCain. Barack Obama now leads in every single tipping point state.
Thanks Liam and Jonathan. The time decay could be the cause, since I think it changed twice in one day last week, but I'm not sure. Both answers seem plausible. Nate...?
judas_priest: I don't recall you ever giving me offense, but if you have and I've forgotten for now, I forgive you.
Obama should go back into Georgia.
At this point, Obama not winning the general election would both be shocking and probably require some huge meltdown that wouldn't be helped by diverting resources.
So why is Georgia important? Well, it's not, for Obama anyway. However, the Senate race there is tightening (today's polls were within the margin or error), and if Martin can pull off an upset, that one vote closer to 60 - and 60 Dems in the Senate is the second most valuable thing a party can have (the first being the Presidency).
Obama placing resources there might help get the vote out for Martin, and that would be huge. Especially considering 2010 is likely to be a very bad year for GOP Senate races.
Oh, I almost forgot.
These polls are excellent news!!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
(Too many exclamation points?)
"how much of this support has solidified and what's the chance it could all come crashing down? "
Several polls show about 10%-15% could still change their mind. Half of that are McCain supporters. So in the worst case scenario Obama could lose 5%-7.5%. If this is due to an immense scandal, they probably won't all go to McCain. Perhaps half to some third-party candidate or not vote. The race would go back to a tie nationally, but that should be good for Obama since swing states seem to be polling above his national averages while McCain has his support concentrated on about 158-votes-worth of red states.
Again, not to bring people too far out of the clouds. Lets see where these character attacks go. We only just recently got the uneasy undecideds on our side based on the debate performance. They could just as easily flip back if they have to indulge this ayres/wright crap for a few media cycles.
NATE
3rd & long & about to get sacked ???
football must not be your forte - stick to baseball analogies... lol
it is the bottom of the 9th inning & team GOPer is trailing by somewhere between 3-12 runs - whatcha gonna do if your team manager is Johnny Mac ?
or if you want to use football, it is not only 3rd & long - it is EXTRA long as in 25 yards to go for a 1st down from the GOPers own 11.5 yard line [facing that 88.5 win percentage] & the Qback [John Mac] is scrambling in his own endzone about to get sacked for a safety that will seal the loss with under 2 minutes left in the game & only 2 more time outs [debates]...
Things are getting ugly. Palin rally attendees dropping racial epithets towards press. They are whipping these nutbars into a frenzy of hatred. Scary to watch.
Heck, not that it is likely, but it wouldn't shock me either if McCain in a befuddled state tomorrow night drops some sort of epithet on Obama.
Judas Priest..
How lovely to ask forgiveness on a blog. We all get extreme sometimes and could say sorry.
And thanks for the insight into the High Holy Days.
Tipping point state[s] - what tipping point is left now ?
this is becoming a PILE ON scenario...
NC, IN & MO are all in the tipping point list now
looks like a tsunami is approaching
can you feel it ???
I am going in to the local DEM HQ in the morning !
If someone could answer just one question for me please:
What does the McCain campaign do if the negative attacks don't move the polls or shows signs of backfiring?
: DCM in FL and Nate, and others.
This election is about an older established politician, who is part of a party that has been in power for 8 years trying to keep an unknown upstart from upsetting them on the home field.
Why not something simple like:
It's 1st and Goal for Obama and McCain's defense is scrambling to get into goalline positions.
Or:
It's fourth and long in their own territory and McCain has no choice but to go for it.
Which is what you said, but like, a paragraph shorter and more concise.
How bout' them Titans? 5-0 baby!
What does the McCain campaign do if the negative attacks don't move the polls or shows signs of backfiring?
Unfreeze the corpse of Osama Bin Laden, drape him over the skis on an airplane and claim that Palin shot him from the air.
Has anyone noticed this??
Research 2000 -- Indiana is tied!
http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9133733
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) - The race for president in Indiana is a dead heat according to the new WISH-TV Indiana Poll. The poll confirms that Indiana is a battleground state in part because two of the top three issues in the spring, health care and the war, gave way to bigger concerns at the moment.
The numbers are even: 46 percent for Barack Obama and 46 percent for John McCain. Three percent named another candidate and just five percent are undecided.
I am somewhat concerned about Nate's model. Given the current scene - and allowing for erro - there is not way that Pbama can got even close to 400 EV's, yet if we look at the probability distribution Nate shows, there are a number of cases that far out.
Barring a total implosion of the McCain campaign (which is indeed possible, but it is not as yet part of Nate's model - Nate is working only with existing polls), there is no way Obama has any rtealistic chance of getting past 381 (that includes all toss-ups, IN,WV and NE's 2nd District).
Obama is at least a 3:1 underdog in all the remainder, and in most cases (ND and MT are semi close, but even they bring the total to 387) the odds are far longer than that.
I think Nate's model understates the correlation between states. and thus increases the estimated chances for major blow-outs.
Barring that implosion I referred to above, I think thes "best" results would be in the 340-376 range.
On Election Day.
7:00pm ET
GA Senate Race is too close to call. McCain is narrowly ahead in GA
Obama is narrowly ahead in IN.
KY Senate Race is too close to call. McCain is declared a winner in KY.
Graham(R)is declared a winner in SC Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in SC.
Obama is declared a winner in VT.
Warner(D)is declared a winner in VA US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in VA.
7:30PM ET
Hagan(D)is declared winner in NC US Senate Race. Obama is narrowly ahead in NC.
Obama(D)is declared winner in OH.
Rockefeller(D)is declared winner in WV US Senate Race. McCain is narrowly ahead in WV.
8:00PM ET
Sessions(R)is declared winner in AL US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in AL.
Obama(D)is declared winner in CT.
Biden(D)is declared winner in DE US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in DE.
Obama(D)is declared winner in DC.
Obama(D)is declared winner in FL.
Durbin(D)is declared winner in IL US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in IL.
Collins(R)is narrowly ahead in ME US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in ME.
Obama (D) is declared winner in MD.
Kerry (D)is declared winner in MA US Senate Race. Obama(D)is declared winner in MA.
Cochran(R)is declared winner in MS US Senate Race. The MS Senate B race is too close to call. McCain is declared winner in MS.
Obama is narrowly ahead in MO.
Shaheen(D)is declared winner in NH US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in NH.
Lautenberg(D)is declared winner in NJ US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in NJ.
Inhofe(R)is narrowly ahead in OK US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in OK.
Obama(D)is declared winner in PA.
Alexander(R)is declared winner in TN US Senate Race. McCain(R)is declared winner in TN.
8:30PM ET
Pryor(D)is declared winner in AR US Senate Race. McCain(R)is narrowly ahead in AR.
9:00PM ET
McCain(R)is declared winner in AZ.
Udall(D)is declared winner in CO US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in CO.
Roberts(R)is declared winner in KS US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in KS.
Landrieu(D)is declared winner in LA US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in LA.
Levin(D)is declared winner in MI US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in MI.
Franken(D)is narrowly ahead in MN US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in MN.
Johanns(R)is declared winner in NE US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in NE.
Udall(D)is declared winner in NM US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in NM.
Obama is declared winner in NY.
Reed(D)is declared winner in RI US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in RI.
Johnson(D)is declared winner in SD US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in SD.
Cornyn(R)is narrowly ahead in TX US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in TX.
Obama is declared winner in WI.
Enzi and Barrasso (R)are declared winners in WY US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in WY.
10:00PMET.
McCain is now declared winner in GA.
Harkin(D)is declared winner in IA US Senate Race. Obama is declared winner in IA.
Baucus(D)is declared winner in MT US Senate Race. McCain is narrowly ahead in MT.
Obama is declared winner in NV.
McCain is declared winner in UT.
10:30PMET.
McCain is declared winner in WV.
Obama is declared winner in NC- He officially reaches the 275ev. votes. He is declared winner. Obama is the 44th President of the United States.
11:00PMET
Obama wins CA,HI,OR,and WA.
Merkley(D)is declared winner in OR US Senate Race. McCain is declared winner in AR,ID,MT and ND. Risch is declared winner in ID US Senate Race. Cornyn(R)is declared winner in TX US Senate Race.
12:00PMET
McCain is declared winner in AK. Begich is declared winner in AK US Senate. Race.
Wicker is declared winner in MS Special Election. Franken is declared winner in MN US Senate Race.
Presidential Races in IN and MO are still too close to call. as well as the US Senate Race in GA and KY.
I'm a complete math layman, but Nate is running 10,000 simulations. So if Obama has a 3% chance of winning Nebraska, that means he is winning 300 times in his simulations. And since the model accounts for state relations, the times he wins it are likely also the times he wins all the toss-up states plus the all the very long-shots, thus producing the occasional 400 EV simulation.
WHOA!! Just noticed NE02 has flicked from red to pink on the 528 projection map. Time to pack the car and roar across Iowa!
I'll just follow the blue bumper stickers to Obama-Biden HQ but would appreciate someone slipping me the Obamha HQ address.
Thanks.
And WOW!!
I found this quote today(credit to Wunderwood), and we should spread it around:"Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it." [John McCain - The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer - 2/21/2000]
Just John said...
Oh, I almost forgot.
These polls are excellent news!!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
Yes, agreed! Congratulations President-Elect John McCain!
These polls are AMAZINGLY GREAT NEWS for John McCain!
They mean that he can throw the SHOCKING BOMBSHELL Bill Ayers into the fray, a relatively unknown 'October Surprise' that will be sure to shock the two dozen people who haven't heard Hannity and O'Reilly screaming about it all election cycle.
I swear, listening to Hannity sob the day after election day just warms my heart. It was great in 2006 with the Senate, I can only imagine how it will feel when Barack Obama is elected President.
P.S. I love the 'Is Obama FINISHED?' ad that sometimes appears here right underneath projections showing him having an 85% chance of winning the election.
P.P.S. I am going to have to change my pants if the first major news on election night coverage is 'We are now projecting that Barack Obama will win the state of Indiana".
@mia @Canadians and other non-US readers,
Good point. But technically, foreign citizens cannot donate money through BarackObama.com. Their donation page "screens out" foreign donations by asking if you are a US citizen or a US resident.
On the other hand, in my understanding, "buying" products, like t-shirt or coffee mugs, is a fair-game. That's not "donation." Isn't that correct?
Also, there are a lot of US citizens around here in BC. They can vote and donate!!!
In reference to the election night comment above:
I was watching the 2004 coverage on YouTube over again (there are tons of clips of 2004, 2000 and a bunch of past elections if anyone's interesting) and was struck by how all the networks were way (way, way, way) too conservative in calling states (obviously as a response to 2000 disaster). Bush had significant leads in many states with almost all the precincts reporting and yet they still claimed it too close to call. For example, Bush was ahead in Florida by around 500k votes with 91% reporting and they still wouldn't call it for some time. Ditto for Ohio, and even some non-close states like Virginia, Missouri and Colorado (interestingly, they were discussing how Colorado *was* viewed as a swing state at the time, which I had forgotten about (checking back though, Bush led every RCP poll)).
Judging on both this year's primary coverage and the fact that we are another four years removed from 2000, I am expecting a more exciting election night with quicker calls.
It is hard to tell from the FAQ, but as I understand it, Nate simulates an electoral college 10,000 times from the projection percentages for each state. But since the elaboration in the FAQ isn't explicit enough for me, I'm left guessing that he simulates each state independently. I hope I'm wrong, but if I'm not, this pretty much requires that Nate's electoral vote distribution has a variance that is necessarily greater than a model that takes into account correlations between states. Under this independent assumption, in 10,000 simulations, it is entirely possible to see LA for Obama and NV for McCain, though in reality, I think such an outcome is nearly impossible as to be negligible. Any ideas of whether or not the expected co-variances between states is taken into account in Nate's simulations?
And if you refer to FAQ, could you provide the text and a translation, because after poring over it for quite sometime, I still have no idea. If I were reviewing this his methods in a peer-reviewed paper, I'd have to reject it based on obfuscated methodology. Not to say it is wrong, but only to say I can't tell if it is right or wrong.
Oh and again.
R2K Indiana
Obama 46
McCain 46
http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9133733
Brett said...
I found this quote today(credit to Wunderwood), and we should spread it around:"Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it." [John McCain - The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer - 2/21/2000]
Brett,
Can we get a link please?
538 is just an amazing site contentwise - not just the best analysis of the numbers, but also some of the most interesting and insightful commentaries. Now with added Nebraska and Maine EV breakdowns. Fantastic stuff! Looking at other sites like CNN or RCP is like watching electoral coverage from the steam age once you've seen this.
We should look for major news organizations on election night to declare Obama a winner in Indiana. and Jim Martin a winner in GA US Senate Race.
This means we will be getting 60 US Senate Seats.
Obama will be getting more than 300ev.
Thanks lwphd for calling felipe a tool. I would have gone further. The last thing this place needs is idiots calling 'first'. How about I cry out 'Onehundred and thirty fifth', felipe?
Nate, you just put the biggest smile on this Missouri resident's face. And even my native state of Mississippi is in the single digits and possibly competitive. If this Presidential election works out and the Democrats break the 60 member mark in the Senate, the 50 state strategy will never be seen the same again.
Now for hoping that the support we're seeing is firm. So much muck is still being flung until it's hard not to lose sleep over potential October surprises.
Joey,
Use Teh Google.
Here's one result with the direct quote just to make it easier for everyone who made all the way down here in the thread.
Palin is frightening Milbank. Getting ugly out there now, folks!
The DNC is already using video of the quote here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHW-RO1_WN0
Presumably, McCain is talking about the Bush campaign there, which is appropriate since many of the same people are now working for him.
I love the "Obama Finished?" and "Over for Obama?" ads that show up, because you can now start wondering... If this is a presidential race, Obama has pretty much finished, and McCain's hobbling along somewhere to the rear.
Great line from Letterman (it was just broadcast out here but I'm sure many of you saw it earlier.
"This just in, A back country hiker has found the wreckage of the McCain campaign."
In reference to an earlier post I can't remeber who made it), dealing with my questioning of Nate's model: I know that Nate attempted to deal with this issue. I am saying that since I find the results at the extrme to be highly impprobable, I question thoe aspects of his model. I cannot show a methematical proof or empirical demonstration of this. It just fails the criterion of interoccular trauma (the problem hit me right between the eyes).
I have an idea of what to do, but no longer have the math skills or desire to work it out.
More proof of the NYT's gimplikeness and its desire to insult the intelligence of, well, anyone with intelligence. Apparently, "at least 6 million questions have been submitted via the internet" for Tuesday's debate; "That’s a lot of queries for 90 minutes, and obviously they won’t all get asked — there will be time for only 15 to 20".
Ya, come to think of it, it was kinda obvious they wouldn't manage to get thru 6 million questions. Thanks for pointing it out though, Seelye.
In 2006 we unexpectedly won a blue US House District held by Republican in IA-2(Leach)district.
IN 2008- We are going to win.
CT-4
IL-10
10/7/08
Stock market will crash at least 1,200 pts.
Sell all.
This is your last chance.
Google it: October 7
j: why will it drop 1200?
no reason, huh?
The era of Reagan is finally over. Looking at all the blue on the map, this is no longer an election, it's a revolution.
Takes a real genius to predict a 1,200 point crash after we've lost 4,000 points in the past 12 months.
j and jj: two genii.
Nate's on colbert tuesday? Wowsers.
Shucks that's today.
LwPhD said...
It is hard to tell from the FAQ, but as I understand it, Nate simulates an electoral college 10,000 times from the projection percentages for each state. But since the elaboration in the FAQ isn't explicit enough for me, I'm left guessing that he simulates each state independently.... Any ideas of whether or not the expected co-variances between states is taken into account in Nate's simulations?
Yes! Nate does include a similarity score in the regression model, so it would be rare for the model to predict, say, +10 McCain in ND and +10 Obama in SD. I only did a very short search, but here's one entry on the subject.
So, while I know that Nate's model allows for states to move relative to one another, they don't tend to change their relative position by very much. (With 10,000 simulations, though, you'll occasionally get very unusual outcomes -- but they are very small in number.)
For what it's worth, though, it is clear that states do jockey for position and change their relative ranking a lot more than you'd think at first -- six weeks ago, who would have rated Obama's chances as MI stronger than PA, FL stronger than OH, and VA stronger than NH?
re: GA.
Early voting ends on Oct. 31. By the last week of October, you'd expect the Obama campaign to have a sense of how many votes it's banked in early voting. But if VA's moving out of toss-up territory, then it's time to lock down NC first. That said, a rally in Atlanta shouldn't be considered off the schedule.
A subject that might be worth half a post: how much is McCain spending in uncompetitive states because of media markets that cover competitive ones? Is the campaign having to buy time in Chicago?
Last pre-bedtime thought: the "over for Obama?" ad that ends this page, that's referring to him being over 270 EV's already, right?
I knew Nate was going to marry Tina Fey! As for Brett, is Sean finally going to let him drive?
Great numbers, I must say the southern strategy has me shocked. That VA, NC, and even SC and GA will be close is more than I hoped for. To win one or more of those - unbelieveable!\\Economy to get worse, BBC is covering pure panic in Europe tonight. This is ugly, very ugly. Iceland, freakin' Iceland closed it banks and is in an emergency legisltive session over this.
Holy ****!
Politico has it 364-174 Obama tonight.
http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
Barring that implosion I referred to above, I think thes "best" results would be in the 340-376 range.
Don't forget Georgia, and heck, Texas. No polls taken there in months, and it and Georgia were not terribly far apart.
"You worked with a terrorist, had political fund raisers in his home, co-chaired both the Annenberg and the Woods Foundations together, he is your friend, and you have denied it.."
BARAK: "guys guys guys...Cant we just talk about the economy"
"You were trained in the Saul Alinsky organization, to promote radicalism and sew seeds of discontent"
BARAK: "Please, pretty please...Cant we just talk about the economy"
"You sat for 20 YEARS in the pew of a reverend who constantly preaches anti-American sentiment, he even baptized your children"
BARAK: "Awww COME ON!!! Can't we just talk about the economy"
Okay Barak!
"The whole team that created the mess bringing down our country at Fannie and Freddie mac are democrats on your Economic team!
You broke records in how much funds you received from them
As did other democrats, the very party you represent"
Barak: RACIST!
"Tony Rezko, convicted Felon guilty of six counts of wire fraud, six counts of mail fraud, two counts of corrupt solicitation, and two counts of money laundering, bought the Yard your children play in!!!!"
BARAK: RACIST!
"You were elected senator because of your anti-iraq, anti-surge rhetoric...that you were wrong about...yuo were sent to washington based on a premise that was false"
BARAK: RACIST!
Just exactly what are Obama's economic credentials?????
None?
His foreign affairs credentials???? Except being wrong on the surge?
None?
His executive/leadership experience?????
None?
His experience developing strong relations with terrorists, communists, and white haters? EXCELLENT
Geez, look at the BS of Ubuntu.
Is the Freeptard site down?
Nate,
Just saw a story on Politico saying that there were only 3000 votes during the "Simultaneous Register and Vote" period in Ohio last week.
Politico suggested that's not great, but I have no idea.
Thoughts?
If you're having trouble getting people to believe you're an expert on Senator Obama, you might want to try spelling his name correctly.
You can get the spelling on this website:
http://www.fightthesmears.com/
While the right tries to make this another fear election, not based on ideas, so they can continue to rape and steal from the American people - ICELAND goes bankrupt (or might) over this administrations lack of regulation!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/icelands-economy-close-to_n_132404.html
Keep in mind, the Lehman Brothers chairman today said the shenanigans started not under Clinto - but SEVEN YEARS AGO - under Bush!
This is Bush's crisis.
fred,
Lehman's chairman id the dood who managed to carve himself a 350 ml parachute in the midst of the crisis and while his company was going bankrupt.
getting serious:
I am starting to give some credibility to the REAL JOE EFFECT. This is about "hard working" americans not willing to admit their admiration for Obama while hunting and sixpacking but seriously considering the case of voting for him.
I believe the surge in Obama's pollings are not only due to perceived "negatives" about another GOP presidency but also to perceived "positives" about Obama himself. An important turning point I think was the O'Reilly-Fox interview with Obama. Instead of his usual ranting and insulting over democrats O'Reilly said, at the end of the interview, that he thouht Obama was tough, honest, and sincere. Wow !! 2 days fter this Obama's poll ratings started to surge. The interview was watched by millions of conservatives who, I suppose, were ready for the demolition. Instead...they got to see something completely different: an intelligent, passionate, articulate
candidate.
Any ideas ?
The most interesting polls for me are Florida.
Florida & Ohio are like super tankers. Difficult to get moving. Slow to stop or change course.
McCain must know that if he looses Florida there is simply no hope. I expect him to pull out of PA sharply & move everything to Florida.
Ohio - who knows? There might be enough racists to hold for him.
Virginia - Maybe the polls are volatile. What goes up so fast might go down just as quickly.
In short luck & general negative campaigning just might hold for him elswhere. At least he can dream.
The other thing that interests me is money.
Obama is not letting out more info than the law requires, but we can conclude that donations follow enthusiasm.
McCain is in a different boat. He accepted public financing but he was assuming masive topping up via the RNC.
Palin was a big contribution getter, but the emphasise is probably on the was. The RNC probably has a lot less than it hoped.
The huge GOP negative add blitz may never happen.
If Obama is still rising in two weeks he may go for it all, and put much, or even most of his energy into winning senate seats.
Apart from the hope of winnning a fillibuster proof majority it would have two other effects:
It would lock in his position by getting the media fixed on the senate & not any new ploy McCain can come up with.
It might also force the RNC to abandon McCain and put all resouces into holding on to a meaningful presence in the senate.
One thing not many here seem to watch is favorable ratings.
RCP shows McCain at +11.1 but the average of the 2 recent polls is only 3.
It's pretty hard to win anything when only 42% of the population has a good opinion of you.
Blame,
I like how you think. McCain has to be in a cash crunch. If Obama would start campaigning with the down ticket candidates EVERYWHERE the RNC would have to detach themselves from this sinking ship.
Let's not get complacent here just yet.
There are 3 polls that show Obama with a 3-point lead (CBS, Dem Corps, Reuters/CSpan/Zogby-which is now a tracking poll), so there may be at least some indication of the race tightening a bit.
Sure, the other polls and trackers show a blowout, but nothing is in the bag quite yet. There are still more than three weeks to go and and we know how sleazy and disgusting the GOP can get.
I do believe, however, that a solid Obama performance tonight at the debate may seal the deal, not to mention the Troopergate announcement on Friday.
But still, people should be cautious. It's looking good but it's not a done deal.
TIME/CNN poll
In North Carolina, which Bush won by more than 12 percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, McCain and Obama are locked in a dead heat, with each candidate garnering the support of 49% of likely voters. In Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and 16 points in 2000, McCain maintains a slight 5 point lead over Obama, with 51% of likely voters, compared to Obama's 46%.
In the crucial swing state of Ohio, which Bush won by slight margins in both 2000 and 2004, McCain trails Obama by 3 points, with the support of 47% of voters, compared to Obama's 50%. Obama also holds a statistically significant 8 point lead over McCain in New Hampshire and a 5 point lead in Wisconsin, two states that Democrat John Kerry was able to win in 2004.
As a result of the new survey, CNN now considers New Hampshire and Wisconsin to be Obama-leaning states, after previously being considered tossups. North Carolina is now considered a tossup, after previously being categorized as a McCain-leaning state.
The polls were conducted between October 3 and 6, after last Thursday's debate. They have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 to 4 percentage points.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847805,00.html
Morning !
Any overnight polling Joe? Did people change their vote in their sleep?
Any countries bankrupt?
lol
I HATE ZOGBY!
Those jerks release zero details on their tracker unless oyu are a subscriber. One learning from this election form e, Zogby sucks and Frank Wentzel is an idiot. I do like John Zogby, but he needs to look at his processes and the Frnkie boy.
morning REAL JOE
I've posted something about the REAL JOE EFECT some posts above.
EFFECT
The repubs think they have a shot.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14340.html
Cora-
What the hell is you point? Yes, Lehman's chairman took 350 million from 2000 on. What the hell does that have to do with his fundamental knowledge of the problem he helped cause? Who do ask how and when this started but the guy who help start it.
NEXT!
Cora-
I also think your REAL JOE EFFECT is pretty simplistic. Real Joes vote for as many reasons as anyone else and are a complex group.
Real Joe is also not a member of that group, he makes more than 25K as he has stated taxes are his major reason to vote McCain.
fred said...
Any overnight polling Joe? Did people change their vote in their sleep?
Thats about it. Republican's only get our votes in our nightmares.
"Jeff said...
voted absentee in MO today. chalk one up for the big O."
Just sent in my absentee ballot today too-- to Iowa, from Egypt.
Normally I fill in the bubbles for each race even in years where I vote for all Democrats. This year, however, I made a point of voting straight ticket for the Democrats, because I wanted to send a message that today's Republican Party needs a serious "time out". (Charles Barkley: "I was a Republican until they lost their minds.")
We'll party here in Cairo for Obama too.
By the way, I don't think there are any news events that can win this for McCain short of a major Obama scandal that surely doesn't exist.
*Osama bin Laden captured/killed. (American public says: "Well it's about frickin' TIME!" McCian gains nothing.)
*Major terrorist attack. (American public says: "All that money on unpopular wars, and the homeland still isn't safe!" McCain gets blame by association. And besides, who wants a hothead like McCain in charge after a terrorist attack?)
*Stock market rises in the next several weeks. (People will still be worried.)
Seriously, I can't think of a news event that will help McCain. Maybe if Jeremiah Wright and Tony Rezko turn out to be al-Qaeda sleeper agents, that would scare enough Americans, but it would take something that big.
A more interesting possibility is... what happens if McCain has a mild heart attack and spends a few days in the hospital? Does that push Obama into Über-landslide territory? I think so.
hi fred,
maybe my tone was wrong about Lehman. I just wanted to say that he DID carve out the parachute during the crisis. In my eyes this makes him a less credible expert. It's simplistic. I admit.
Cora - I think your observation is an interesting one. At an Obama event here in GA in April with David Plouffe I suggested going on Bill O in a question and you could hear the audible gasp by the crowd.
Hillary was on Bill O the weekend before IN primary and won by 2.2%. I am convinced that really made all the difference.
Barack continues to play at all the margins and if he turns a few votes or makes people think "hey, he is smart and nice" unlike their previous perceptions. Saddleback was the same thing. It was NOT a debate. Obama was there to simply try and minimize his losses in that community.
Sean posted on the poker analogy a few weeks ago and that is waht the Obama campaign and Obam himself are doing and the cumulative effect plus the debates I think are adding up a little at a time to move the needle and bam - the Wall St. crisis and the McCain campaign (the gift that keeps on giving) helps gel these things.
In GA the Obama campaignis still here. We have 30-50 staff and a HUGE and well organized volunteer team. If Obama himself would come back here for a day I think he could push us over the edge.
Early voting is HUGE here and is 40% is AA and 200K voters. Our vounteer coordinator waited an hour and 20 minutes to vote yesterday.
I think we will win here and Martin and Saxby are tied....that would be a huge win and even if Obama loses by <5% here Martin can win
Fred,
those making about 25k are just the ones I was thinking about. Or was it 250k ? Those would obviously not account to the effect.
John Nail said...
Cora - I think your observation is an interesting one
....
thankyou
Another Canadian here, living in NC. I've recently been naturalized so I get to vote. I'm not really fond of either candidate, but can't imagine a McPalin whitehouse. Based on my observations, I'd be surprised if Obama doesn't carry NC.
New CNN/Time polls confirm Obama moving ahead in key states.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847805,00.html
North Carolina: Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Indiana: McCain 51%, Obama 46%
New Hampshire: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Yet another new daily tracking poll Reuters/Zogby poll this morning showing Obama only up 48-45 over McCain. I didn't see the actual internals, but according to the article, it breaks down roughly like this:
Dem
O90 - M10
Rep
M90 - O10
Ind
O49 - M42
So...three point lead after identical partisan numbers and a seven point independent lead? That adds up to something closer to 10-12 point lead to me. And of course RCP is including it (nah nah nah Research2000!).
holding on to Indiana is not enough
we are so fu**ed
p smith,
Those numbers are a liitle disappointing. Even though Obama is doing slightly better than the last CNN/Time polls in those states (+1 in OH,WI,NC, +3 in NH, same in IN), those numbers are all behind other more recent polls, and CNN/Time has a Dem lean.
Ubuntu, Palin's got more direct associations that more recent and far worse. I think they will regret bringing this up. Check out admissions by McCain campaign that Todd Palin was a member of the Alaska secessionist party and that Sarah attended conventions and gave recorded messages as recently as a few years ago. Talk about "find America so imperfect". . .
Another tracking, now by Zogby.
morning dario
any new polls except time/cnn
Ridiculous Zogby poll. Obama pulls more of his own party and is +7 with independents, yet he only leads McCain by three?!
New McCain Ad
Obama “Hypocritical”
“Barack Obama. He promised better. He lied.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIlUaKIB07E
New Obama Ad
“But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down. With smears that have been proven false.”
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1386357098/bctid1840831890
matt said...
Ridiculous Zogby poll. Obama pulls more of his own party and is +7 with independents, yet he only leads McCain by three?!
Obama only leads by 3
good news :-)
Time to start allocating Obama to fight the senate races, leave Biden on just-in-case-of-the-worst presidential firewalls like CO and PA. I want to see Obama in MN, MS, GA, and even TX and, looking at 2010, AZ. KY is more questionable - it would be nice to turn KY-Sen blue but I'm not sure I want to see Obama doing it.
Would Obama doing a swing through TX and AZ look cocky? Maybe a little, but I'm not so sure that it really works to tell people that a candidate talking to voters is a bad thing.
Maybe someone can clarify this for me - I am not sure why Indiana is leaning Obama or a toss-up. When I look at the stats I see McCain ahead most of the time. Now, I would love for Obama to be ahead and I am certainly no stats expert....so...can anyone clarify?
How can a polling site be so one sided? Isn't polling supposed to be neutral? Doesn't weighting certain polls impart this site's extreme Obama bias into numbers that don't jive with this massive list of Democrat commenters? No comment on the CBS poll showing a massive move in the national numbers? "third and long for McCain and he's about to be sacked" that's what passes for balanced analysis. This place is a club for Obama sychophants and kool aid drinkers.
assmole said...
j and jj: two genii.
Huh? *looksaround* I DIDN't DO ANYTHING! NOONE SAW ME! YOU CAN'T PROVE ANYTHING!
:P
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