Barack Obama has risen to his highest-ever level in both our electoral college and popular vote projections, principally on the strength of his commanding lead in the national tracking polls. Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline each have Obama ahead by 7 points, and Research 2000 has him up by 12 (Battleground, which has generally had the most conservative numbers for Obama, does not publish on the weekend). Whether or not the McCain campaign's new round of attacks will have a significant impact on Obama's numbers we shall see, but they're going to have to knock him off a fairly high pedestal.
There is state polling out today in Minnesota, Colorado and Ohio. In Minnesota, the Star Tribune has Obama ahead by 18, quite a contrast from SurveyUSA's contemporaneous poll which had McCain up by 1. Yesterday, I discussed the disparities between these two polls on the senate side, and it is not surprising that the presidential numbers have followed suit. Our model projects Obama to win Minnesota by 8-9 points, roughly in between the SurveyUSA and Star Tribune estimates.
In Colorado, Mason-Dixon -- polling for the Denver Post -- has the race tied at 44-44. Mason-Dixon's polls have had a statistically significantly Republican lean thus far this cycle, and so it's not terribly surprising to see their numbers a couple of points to the McCain side of other recent polling of the state. Nevertheless, there have now been a couple of different polls coming out in Colorado -- ARG, Ciruli, and last Monday's Rasmussen number -- suggesting that the race there may have tightened a bit.
Lastly, in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch has Barack Obama ahead by 7. It's a good number for Obama, but not one that should be taken very seriously, as the Dispatch poll is conducted by mail and has not been very reliable in the past. Still, the notion that Ohio was somehow immune from Obama's recent bounce is rapidly losing credibility.
10.05.2008
Today's Polls, 10/5
@ 5:59 PM
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239 comments
How am I a bigot for saying homosexuals SHOULD HAVE equal rights? Just because I don't believe it's a proper lifestyle in God's eyes? You are the bigot.
Fundies never seem to be able to practice what they preach.
Mule Rider is a perfect example of fundie hypocrisy, not a hint of love or forgiveness. I don't think Jesus would approve of cursing at people anonymously over the internet, but maybe I'm wrong.
"liberal secular fundamentalism is destroying the freedoms of this country if they want to impose their views about what's right and good to others in society".
Yes, the problem isn´t the liberals or conservatives, is the people who want to impose their views about what´s right and good.
I don't understand people who take the bible literally. All the "homosexuality is wrong" crap comes from leviticus, which also says shaving, eating shrimp, and wearing two different kinds of clothing material is a sin. It's targeted bigotry.
However, mule rider has every right to teach his children what he wishes no matter who disagrees. I commend him (you are a he, correct!?) for recognizing that everyone deserves equal rights under law, though.
I only wish all fundies realized that part.
But I am done contributing. You two need to just agree to disagree and move on!
Uhm, so if taking scriptures literally is harming yourself...what is teaching your kids to do the same thing, then?
And what about stoning people for various crimes? You can't pick and choose the literally, it's either all or none.
Besides morality is subjective. For one person immoral is a man kissing another man, for another immoral is teaching young kids that that's immoral.
Anyway this is the sort of argument that gets us nowhere.
Mich GOP county chair calls McCain move "complete crock of crap"
Al Ribeiro, until now McCain's Michigan state director, had the unenviable task of sending out an email to Republicans in the state explaining as delicately as possible why they were pulling out.
"With 30 days before the election, the campaign must decide where it can best utilize its limited resources with the goal of winning nationally and ensuring John McCain is our next President,' Ribiero explained in an message Saturday, adding that McCain hadn't given up on the state and urging activists to keep working.
One county chair wasn't buying -- and he let Ribiero and a large list of other Michigan Republicans know in a scalding email reply.
"If you are going to end visits to the state by McCain/ Palin, do it," urged Jack Waldvogel, Chairman of the Emmet County GOP in a message obtained by Politico. "Just don't formally announce that you are 'pulling out' of Michigan, and then come back two days later asking the base core of support to 'keep working.' What a slap in the face to all the thousands of people who have been energized by the addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket. I've been involved in County Party politics and organization for 40 years, and this is the biggest dumbass stunt I have ever seen."
Waldvogel added later in the message: "He has given up on our State? What a total and complete crock of crap. Again, I think McCain owes the Republicans and the People of Michigan a HUGE APOLOGY. SOON!"
Ohio seems to be unhinged from Va, Fla, Colo, and Pa in your daily updates. Any chance of showing some other linkages?
Pa-Va?
Va-NC?
Ind-Oh?
Minn-Wis?
Colo-NM
You can come up with better, I'm sure.
As we move towards the election,
I think American Christianity is a grotesque distortion of the teachings of a great man, that this distortion is the great corruption that's destroying America, and that the so-called Christians who continue to vote Republican are hypocrites or fools.
But I believe that Christians should have the same rights as the rest of Americans, and I do tolerate them so long as they tolerate me, so I guess I see where Mule Rider is coming from. And I'm sure that he would not consider me a Christian-hater since I'm careful to note that I don't think they should be discriminated against, despite the evil they do and the unrepentant sinners they are in the eyes of their own God.
Chickenhawk Hannity is doing a show tonight called Obama and Friends - History of Radicalism. Hannity makes me sick. I guess he hasn't realized that nobody watches his smear crap show except for the hardcore neocon believers. I, unfortunately, ran across it while flipping to ESPN to watch the Steelers beat up on Jacksonville.
Nate -
What do we make of Intrade showing BO down, JM up over the weekend?
Dammit!!!! AssRider came back. The overall IQ of the board just dropped by 45%.
Once he can figure out that the big bang and evolution are different, than he can move and realize that understanding and believing in them and in God is not mutually exclusive.
Mule I don't care what you believe or what you teach your kids. But can everyone try being a little civil. No need to get nasty with one another---life is to short man.
Mule I don't care what you believe or what you teach your kids. But can everyone try being a little civil. No need to get nasty with one another---life is to short man.
As long as the low information voter doesn't by into the upcoming descent into advertising hell by McShame than I don't think any of the swing states will go red.
It is alarming that this clown and his ignorant sidekick is even attracting 5% support.
If you look at the history of this general election campaign, once Obama turns a red state light blue it stays that way or gets bluer. With the oddity that was NH for about 2 days, McCain hasn't moved anywhere but down or just treads water.
As the national poll lead increases, the light red will turn white, the white will go light blue, and the light blue will darken up. Of course this assumes that people don't listen to the liar who has nothing else to peddle but hate.
With even the fundie nutbags starting to turn on mad dog Palin it may be possible to flip a deep red state or two.
I am just happy that at least 1 major magazine(Rolling Stone) has the guts to take on McCain's biggest lie: his behavior as a navy pilot and POW. Reckless and treasonous only scratches the surface.
The MSM gives McCain a free pass on it. Which is odd, since according the the neo-con retards the MSM is liberal, yet has given Bush a free pass over so many lies and treasonous actions and crucified the very moderate Clinton for a blow job. Neo-cons and fundies have never found logic worth looking into.
I´ve never known why people would rally against the "promotion" of homosexuality. I mean, it´s not like anyone can be "convinced" to become gay if he/she didn´t already have any homosexual tendencies before. I believe many of the people who warn against homosexuality are afraid of their own suppressed feelings.
That puzzles me too. It's almost like they're unaware that it's been a well-established medical fact for years now that you can reliably tell from a brain-scan at birth whether a child is going to grow up to be gay or not. Gay male babies have certain brain structures that resemble those of most female babies, and view fersa vor gay female babies. It's a proven fact that homosexuality is something you're either born with, or not: it's not a "life-style choice", and it's not something that anyone can either "promote" or "teach people to avoid".
The only life-style choice involved in homosexuality is whenther to be open about it, or hide in the closet (along with all those prominent televangelists). Which is of course what the Moral Minority really want want, for all the people unlucky enough to have been born gays to just be unhappily repressed, celibate, or locked in the closet.
So if any of Mule-Rider's kids happen to be in the 10% of people who are born gay, the only thing that teaching his children that homosexuality is a sin is going to achieve is to make them grow up into messed-up gay adults (or rebelious gay adults).
Sorry, I know, I shouldn't feed the trolls.
A few words from an Independent...
The silly, partisan name-calling is a turn off. The binary mentality that's often displayed is also not exactly endearing. I like this site and I generally like the commentary found here, but it seems to be turning more vitriolic as we move closer to the election. I really wish it could get toned down. And I hope it's not an indicator of what's going to happen in the larger picture as we approach election day.
I'd like to point out that there are people out here who are sick and tired of the whole "Us vs. Them" routine. There are people out here who don't hold either party in particularly high regard, who reject both the fundamental platforms they represent. There are people out here for whom party affiliation has little to nothing to do with which candidate they choose to support.
And, y'know, these people tend to be the ones who actually decide who gets into office.
So, please. Don't turn them off.
I understand how deep the anger can run. And I understand the compulsion to gloat.
But the truth is there are plenty of Republicans out there who're good people, just as there are plenty of decent Democrats, and they don't deserve that. Also, there are as many bile-spewing, hate-mongering irrational crackpots on the Left as there are on the Right. Neither group has a monopoly on hate or stupidity. Nor do these two groups represent the totality of ideological and political viewpoints.
I ask that you please strive for intellectual honesty and embrace these truths.
After all, this is essentially Obama's own message, isn't it? This partisan vitriol is the type of thing he's trying to rise above, yes?
So, shouldn't support for Obama include a similar commitment to less hateful dialogue?
I'm an Independent. I currently support Obama and my support is in no small part due to this very aspect of his message and platform.
But, believe me, I'm watching how much he sticks to it, and I'm watching how much his party picks up the cause. I know I'm not the only one. Negative campaigns, after all, haven't done so well this cycle. Tone actually seems to matter this time.
So please try to remember that? I want Obama to win this. I'd rather that the leftist ideologues not, in a (terribly premature) display of smug arrogance, turn away the very people that would've put him over the top.
Thanks for reading.
I just got an email from a knowledgeable guy in Colorado who said that he thinks Obama will carry the state, but primarily because of McCain's position on water rights. I live in Arizona, where water is obviously important (and most of ours comes from Colorado) but I didn't know that there was a big issue about it that somehow involved McCain.
Evidence of a hard counter punch:
The Obama campaign has a new Keating 5 video and website up:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsI_0bV2CZo
http://keatingeconomics.com/
This follows the McCain tax record Youtube video and website posted two days ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpIWbYs8sec&feature=user
http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/
@ astanphaeus:
I too get ill when my fellow progressives beat up on the Republicans. What, are we playing some sort of game to see who can be the nastiest?
If you want to claim the high ground, guys, maybe ease up on the name-calling and mockery. Fools will make fools of themselves just fine, they don't need any help.
From either side.
Obama didn't get much of a bump after the first debate. I predict a MUCH larger bump after Tuesday's. I also predict that McCain pulls out of the third debate.
"My tolerance and support of equal rights for gays isn't enough. I have to believe it's okay myself and teach my kids that it's okay too or else I'm an intolerant bigot in his eyes."
If you're not willing to allow your kids to be open to the idea that it's ok to be gay, then you are neither tolerant nor supportive.
It's ok to not be tolerant or supportive, it's not ok to pretend to be.
"I also predict that McCain pulls out of the third debate."
He better not, that debate is being held at my alma mater. As a senior, I was part of the student committee that drafted a proposal to have the debate. We worked our asses off to win the right to hold on. If he pulls out, he'll lose the New York area in a landslide...not that he won't anyway.
@Justin
Just $25? No such thing...
$25 buys:
* One phone line for the rest of the campaign where volunteers can call 1000 of people urging them to support Barak or to get out the vote.
* Coffee and donuts for a room full of precinct walkers at 8am on Nov. 4th who are going to remind everyone to vote.
* At least 2500 fliers inviting anyone and everyone to come to a rally.
* A few YARDSIGNS! (yes, I went there)
Not only does $25 matter, it makes a difference.
Ok, I don't agree with MR but I am going to take up for him. He has the protected right to believe whatever his religion says and raise his children in that fashion. As long as he can be tolerant of their behavior and not discriminate, he is fine.
Of course Mule Rider has the right to believe what he wants to believ. No one's disputing that, so it's a red herring. He has the right to say asinine things about "sin" and "lifestyle" too.
I will never understand, though, why people will follow that with the assertion that he has the right to brainwash his children into his brand of pathetic narrowmindedness. As though children are just property; as though the purpose of children is to turn out little carbon copies of ourselves. There are limits to the "right to raise children in his fashion", and teaching that the way some people are is Inherently Sinful is over the line. Whether he chooses to admit it or not, he is teaching homophobia, and I'm not going to be Politically Correct for the other side and pretend that's okay. Or that it has anything to do with Jesus Christ.
And I've had it to here with self-congratulatory independents, as though it is a virtue to be blind to clear differences in ethics and morality between the parties. The Republicans have been playing the politics of smear and the big lie for a generation (at least), and every time some Democrats have the balls to smack them, the prissy Independents fart out a schoolmarm lecture. The condescending independent is the principal shaking his finger at Johnny when Johnny finally stands up to the playground bully and punches him in the nose. Yes, the Democrats should be above the disgraceful, piggish tactics of Karl Rove and his ilk; but when faced with bullshit, they shouldn't be afraid to call it by its proper name, and if independents can't tell shit from shinola -- likely enough, if they're still calling themselves independents after twenty-eight years of Republican thuggery, corruption and lies -- then to hell with them.
The neocons are at it again. Funny how when the wealthy steal from the poor, that's not considered a redistribution of wealth, but when the wealthy have to pitch in a little extra there's an uproar. The top 10 percent of the population now control approx. 80% wealth up considerably from the 1980's and so on. So what do you call it when they take from the poor and give to the rich? I call that redistribution of wealth. How about you?
Just a quick note from IN.
There is movement. Remember the primary. Lake co. has got savvy from across the state line. NW IN, SW (Evansville) central (Indy), and SE (tricity area) are major urban areas with new registrans. So the polls are close to even. But the larger issue of conservative mind set is just under the surface, pushed down by economic realities. Elkhart Co, makes 2/3rds of RVs in the US, very red, very hurting. etc. etc.
Beautiful! No time to rest though. I'm heading to the local Obama HQ today for the first time to start making calls here in Michigan. The MI GOP is banking on lots of people not going to the polls because Mccain dropped out and they feel at rest. Let's finish this out folks!
Hi there fellow Dems,
First, to be clear, I am actively volunteering for BO in a suburb of Denver. Several thousand doors knocked and more than thirty NEW voters from those home visits. So make no mistake, I am passionately working for an Obama victory.
Having said that, I am somewhat dismayed at the contempt I see expressed here and on other sites.
When I trained with the CO campaign staff, Barack said (via video) two things that stuck with me. One was that I had to know my own story and why I am participating in his campaign. The other was that when contacting voters I should conduct myself respectfully with those who think differently than I do.
I can tell you from experience that I have seldom received better advice. As a campaign novice, I didn't know what to expect but I have come to appreciate that our real power, as Dems and progressives, is our ability to empathize with and listen to our fellow citizens, NO MATTER WHAT!
A natural consequence of this is to appreciate that we are in this journey together and the bigots and fundamentalists and neocons and all the rest will still be Americans and voters after the election, just like us. If we manage to build a better America and democratic republic, they will be part of it too.
So please, celebrate the promise and progress. Work hard to win for Barack and all of us. But also think and empathize with those with whom we do not agree. We will be stronger for it.
Has Nate tried analyzing the polls of the 2000 or 2004 elections? It we be interesting to see what his analysis looks like retrospectively to get a sense of how surprising or unsurprising those results were.
My sense is that Bradley will trump poll leads in traditional red states now swinging blue. Obama's best chance is to defend Gore, and bank on the SW (Hispanic vote) to get past 270. ME, NE split electors are also imp., and he should spend some time in both those states to get all he can. On the stump, stay with economy, emphasize eating food stamp groc., and off of legeslative or academic deail on anything. As down to grass roots as possible. This will not be close.
Hey. It's 10:15pm on the 6th and I'm sitting in my campaign office entering data. Where the hell are Today's Polls? They're like crack to me. I need them to super-energize me for the next three hours of bullshit data.
Nate was on Keith Olbermann today.
this site tells us what happens if we get a tie- we could get clinton or romney
http://www.electoralcollegetie.com/
The 1992 and 1996 Elections.
Clinton won more than 30 states.
1)AZ/CO
2)AR
3)CA
4)CT
5)DC
6)DE
7)FL/GA
8)HI
9)IL
10)IA
11)KY
12)LA
13)MA
14)MD
15)ME
16)MI
17)MN
18)MO
19)MT
20)NH
21)NJ
22)NM
23)NV
24)NY
25)OH
26)OR
27)PA
28)RI
29)TN
30)VT
31)WA
32)WI
33)WV
Bush in 2000 and 2004 won more than 30 states
1)AK
2)AL
3)AR
4)AZ
5)CO
6)FL
7)GA
8)IA
9)ID
10)IN
11)KS
12)KY
13)LA
14)MO
15)MS
16)MT
17)NC
18)ND
19)NE
20)NH,NM
21)NV
22)OH
23)OK
24)SC
25)SD
26)TN
27)TX
28)UT
29)VA
30)WV
31)WY
The 30 states Obama is likely to win this November.
1)CA
2)CO
3)CT
4)DC
5)DE
6)FL
7)HI
8)IA
9)IL
10)IN
11)MA
12)MD
13)ME
14)MI
15)MN
16)MO
17)NC
18)NH
19)NJ
20)NM
21)NV
22)NY
23)OH
24)OR
25)PA
26)RI
27)VA
28)VT
29)WA
30)WI
Obama 375ev
McCain 163ev
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