Barack Obama has risen to his highest-ever level in both our electoral college and popular vote projections, principally on the strength of his commanding lead in the national tracking polls. Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline each have Obama ahead by 7 points, and Research 2000 has him up by 12 (Battleground, which has generally had the most conservative numbers for Obama, does not publish on the weekend). Whether or not the McCain campaign's new round of attacks will have a significant impact on Obama's numbers we shall see, but they're going to have to knock him off a fairly high pedestal.
There is state polling out today in Minnesota, Colorado and Ohio. In Minnesota, the Star Tribune has Obama ahead by 18, quite a contrast from SurveyUSA's contemporaneous poll which had McCain up by 1. Yesterday, I discussed the disparities between these two polls on the senate side, and it is not surprising that the presidential numbers have followed suit. Our model projects Obama to win Minnesota by 8-9 points, roughly in between the SurveyUSA and Star Tribune estimates.
In Colorado, Mason-Dixon -- polling for the Denver Post -- has the race tied at 44-44. Mason-Dixon's polls have had a statistically significantly Republican lean thus far this cycle, and so it's not terribly surprising to see their numbers a couple of points to the McCain side of other recent polling of the state. Nevertheless, there have now been a couple of different polls coming out in Colorado -- ARG, Ciruli, and last Monday's Rasmussen number -- suggesting that the race there may have tightened a bit.
Lastly, in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch has Barack Obama ahead by 7. It's a good number for Obama, but not one that should be taken very seriously, as the Dispatch poll is conducted by mail and has not been very reliable in the past. Still, the notion that Ohio was somehow immune from Obama's recent bounce is rapidly losing credibility.
10.05.2008
Today's Polls, 10/5
@ 5:59 PM
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221 comments
@ astanphaeus:
I too get ill when my fellow progressives beat up on the Republicans. What, are we playing some sort of game to see who can be the nastiest?
If you want to claim the high ground, guys, maybe ease up on the name-calling and mockery. Fools will make fools of themselves just fine, they don't need any help.
From either side.
Obama didn't get much of a bump after the first debate. I predict a MUCH larger bump after Tuesday's. I also predict that McCain pulls out of the third debate.
"My tolerance and support of equal rights for gays isn't enough. I have to believe it's okay myself and teach my kids that it's okay too or else I'm an intolerant bigot in his eyes."
If you're not willing to allow your kids to be open to the idea that it's ok to be gay, then you are neither tolerant nor supportive.
It's ok to not be tolerant or supportive, it's not ok to pretend to be.
"I also predict that McCain pulls out of the third debate."
He better not, that debate is being held at my alma mater. As a senior, I was part of the student committee that drafted a proposal to have the debate. We worked our asses off to win the right to hold on. If he pulls out, he'll lose the New York area in a landslide...not that he won't anyway.
@Justin
Just $25? No such thing...
$25 buys:
* One phone line for the rest of the campaign where volunteers can call 1000 of people urging them to support Barak or to get out the vote.
* Coffee and donuts for a room full of precinct walkers at 8am on Nov. 4th who are going to remind everyone to vote.
* At least 2500 fliers inviting anyone and everyone to come to a rally.
* A few YARDSIGNS! (yes, I went there)
Not only does $25 matter, it makes a difference.
Ok, I don't agree with MR but I am going to take up for him. He has the protected right to believe whatever his religion says and raise his children in that fashion. As long as he can be tolerant of their behavior and not discriminate, he is fine.
Of course Mule Rider has the right to believe what he wants to believ. No one's disputing that, so it's a red herring. He has the right to say asinine things about "sin" and "lifestyle" too.
I will never understand, though, why people will follow that with the assertion that he has the right to brainwash his children into his brand of pathetic narrowmindedness. As though children are just property; as though the purpose of children is to turn out little carbon copies of ourselves. There are limits to the "right to raise children in his fashion", and teaching that the way some people are is Inherently Sinful is over the line. Whether he chooses to admit it or not, he is teaching homophobia, and I'm not going to be Politically Correct for the other side and pretend that's okay. Or that it has anything to do with Jesus Christ.
And I've had it to here with self-congratulatory independents, as though it is a virtue to be blind to clear differences in ethics and morality between the parties. The Republicans have been playing the politics of smear and the big lie for a generation (at least), and every time some Democrats have the balls to smack them, the prissy Independents fart out a schoolmarm lecture. The condescending independent is the principal shaking his finger at Johnny when Johnny finally stands up to the playground bully and punches him in the nose. Yes, the Democrats should be above the disgraceful, piggish tactics of Karl Rove and his ilk; but when faced with bullshit, they shouldn't be afraid to call it by its proper name, and if independents can't tell shit from shinola -- likely enough, if they're still calling themselves independents after twenty-eight years of Republican thuggery, corruption and lies -- then to hell with them.
The neocons are at it again. Funny how when the wealthy steal from the poor, that's not considered a redistribution of wealth, but when the wealthy have to pitch in a little extra there's an uproar. The top 10 percent of the population now control approx. 80% wealth up considerably from the 1980's and so on. So what do you call it when they take from the poor and give to the rich? I call that redistribution of wealth. How about you?
Just a quick note from IN.
There is movement. Remember the primary. Lake co. has got savvy from across the state line. NW IN, SW (Evansville) central (Indy), and SE (tricity area) are major urban areas with new registrans. So the polls are close to even. But the larger issue of conservative mind set is just under the surface, pushed down by economic realities. Elkhart Co, makes 2/3rds of RVs in the US, very red, very hurting. etc. etc.
Beautiful! No time to rest though. I'm heading to the local Obama HQ today for the first time to start making calls here in Michigan. The MI GOP is banking on lots of people not going to the polls because Mccain dropped out and they feel at rest. Let's finish this out folks!
Hi there fellow Dems,
First, to be clear, I am actively volunteering for BO in a suburb of Denver. Several thousand doors knocked and more than thirty NEW voters from those home visits. So make no mistake, I am passionately working for an Obama victory.
Having said that, I am somewhat dismayed at the contempt I see expressed here and on other sites.
When I trained with the CO campaign staff, Barack said (via video) two things that stuck with me. One was that I had to know my own story and why I am participating in his campaign. The other was that when contacting voters I should conduct myself respectfully with those who think differently than I do.
I can tell you from experience that I have seldom received better advice. As a campaign novice, I didn't know what to expect but I have come to appreciate that our real power, as Dems and progressives, is our ability to empathize with and listen to our fellow citizens, NO MATTER WHAT!
A natural consequence of this is to appreciate that we are in this journey together and the bigots and fundamentalists and neocons and all the rest will still be Americans and voters after the election, just like us. If we manage to build a better America and democratic republic, they will be part of it too.
So please, celebrate the promise and progress. Work hard to win for Barack and all of us. But also think and empathize with those with whom we do not agree. We will be stronger for it.
Has Nate tried analyzing the polls of the 2000 or 2004 elections? It we be interesting to see what his analysis looks like retrospectively to get a sense of how surprising or unsurprising those results were.
My sense is that Bradley will trump poll leads in traditional red states now swinging blue. Obama's best chance is to defend Gore, and bank on the SW (Hispanic vote) to get past 270. ME, NE split electors are also imp., and he should spend some time in both those states to get all he can. On the stump, stay with economy, emphasize eating food stamp groc., and off of legeslative or academic deail on anything. As down to grass roots as possible. This will not be close.
Hey. It's 10:15pm on the 6th and I'm sitting in my campaign office entering data. Where the hell are Today's Polls? They're like crack to me. I need them to super-energize me for the next three hours of bullshit data.
Nate was on Keith Olbermann today.
this site tells us what happens if we get a tie- we could get clinton or romney
http://www.electoralcollegetie.com/
The 1992 and 1996 Elections.
Clinton won more than 30 states.
1)AZ/CO
2)AR
3)CA
4)CT
5)DC
6)DE
7)FL/GA
8)HI
9)IL
10)IA
11)KY
12)LA
13)MA
14)MD
15)ME
16)MI
17)MN
18)MO
19)MT
20)NH
21)NJ
22)NM
23)NV
24)NY
25)OH
26)OR
27)PA
28)RI
29)TN
30)VT
31)WA
32)WI
33)WV
Bush in 2000 and 2004 won more than 30 states
1)AK
2)AL
3)AR
4)AZ
5)CO
6)FL
7)GA
8)IA
9)ID
10)IN
11)KS
12)KY
13)LA
14)MO
15)MS
16)MT
17)NC
18)ND
19)NE
20)NH,NM
21)NV
22)OH
23)OK
24)SC
25)SD
26)TN
27)TX
28)UT
29)VA
30)WV
31)WY
The 30 states Obama is likely to win this November.
1)CA
2)CO
3)CT
4)DC
5)DE
6)FL
7)HI
8)IA
9)IL
10)IN
11)MA
12)MD
13)ME
14)MI
15)MN
16)MO
17)NC
18)NH
19)NJ
20)NM
21)NV
22)NY
23)OH
24)OR
25)PA
26)RI
27)VA
28)VT
29)WA
30)WI
Obama 375ev
McCain 163ev
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^^ very nice
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