Barack Obama has risen to his highest-ever level in both our electoral college and popular vote projections, principally on the strength of his commanding lead in the national tracking polls. Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline each have Obama ahead by 7 points, and Research 2000 has him up by 12 (Battleground, which has generally had the most conservative numbers for Obama, does not publish on the weekend). Whether or not the McCain campaign's new round of attacks will have a significant impact on Obama's numbers we shall see, but they're going to have to knock him off a fairly high pedestal.
There is state polling out today in Minnesota, Colorado and Ohio. In Minnesota, the Star Tribune has Obama ahead by 18, quite a contrast from SurveyUSA's contemporaneous poll which had McCain up by 1. Yesterday, I discussed the disparities between these two polls on the senate side, and it is not surprising that the presidential numbers have followed suit. Our model projects Obama to win Minnesota by 8-9 points, roughly in between the SurveyUSA and Star Tribune estimates.
In Colorado, Mason-Dixon -- polling for the Denver Post -- has the race tied at 44-44. Mason-Dixon's polls have had a statistically significantly Republican lean thus far this cycle, and so it's not terribly surprising to see their numbers a couple of points to the McCain side of other recent polling of the state. Nevertheless, there have now been a couple of different polls coming out in Colorado -- ARG, Ciruli, and last Monday's Rasmussen number -- suggesting that the race there may have tightened a bit.
Lastly, in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch has Barack Obama ahead by 7. It's a good number for Obama, but not one that should be taken very seriously, as the Dispatch poll is conducted by mail and has not been very reliable in the past. Still, the notion that Ohio was somehow immune from Obama's recent bounce is rapidly losing credibility.
10.05.2008
Today's Polls, 10/5
@ 5:59 PM
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239 comments
Holy crap. It's a beautiful day!
Be still my beating heart.
fantastic news. now we just need to close!
He'll probably fall back somewhat from these levels, causing the Republitrolls to shriek in delight. :)
I love the tough push back from the Obama team on the McPalin attack.
As a democrat, this is when I get REALLY nervous. We've been so disappointed too many times! But Nate, your news continues to bolster us. Please keep the good news coming!
As I posted earlier, here's an interesting possible attack line they might use in the South. Reminds us of the under-the-table email attacks used against McCain in the South Carolina primary in 2000.
Barack Obama as the Antichrist.
Nate,
Please write an article on how Barr and Nader will have an influence in each state. Better for Obama or McCain? by how much? are there polls out there? in which state(s)?
PLEASE!
thanks for your hard work.
Great new #'s for Obama & the DEMs in general.
need to keep 'em up there for 4 more weeks...
we do not want Obama to waste a good season record and fade away in the playoffs the the Cubbies...
but McCain seems more tired & old & crankier [ie 'eractic'] than ever, so a comeback looks less likely IMHO
hoping that tomorrow brings out another batch of state polls in the battlegrounds
Thing to remember:
Polling <> Voting
No coasting allowed until November 5th.
Those are some very pretty numbers! A landslide Obama victory is now twice as likely as any kind of McCain victory. That's crazy (in an awesome sort of way).
THIS story about McCain's brother calling residence of Arlington and Alexandria in northern Virginia should help out McCain substantially to win the hearts and minds of voters.
I'm looking forward to more VA polling.
These polls are great news!!! For Barack Obama!!!
Wow, look how BLUE that map is!
On this day, october 5th, in 2004, George bush led John Kerry 49.5% to 43.5%
For final results, see Presidential inauguration, january 2005
The leader in the tracking polls never lost the lead between now and election day
(30) days since the Fundamental Shift towards McCain/Palin
and of course...
You republiCONS should be getting nervous!
PS: Nice to see North Carolina a beautiful shade of tarheel blue. So proud of north carolina finally becoming a progressive state.
pedestals are fairly easy to knock down, so i'd prefer you think of obama as being on a mountain...
or at least a shining city on a hill. those are much harder to knock down.
Nate:
could you make a "return on donations" index so i know which senators to give to the most?
I'm looking forward to you covering house races in 2 years, complete with that!
said...
fantastic news. now we just need to close!
Yes take out McShames strength, National Security
This is what he had to say in 98 about Bin Laden;
"You could say, Look, is this guy, Laden, really the bad guy that's depicted? Most of us have never heard of him before."
Look it up
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/1998/11/vest.html
BREAKING!!!
McCain: "Look, is this guy, bin Laden, really the bad guy that's depicted?"
In 1998, John McCain gave an interview to Mother Jones in September. His interview was published in the November/December 1998 issue. Here's the choice excerpt below from that damning interview:
Mother Jones: You not only have had combat experience in Vietnam, but you were also a prisoner of war. When you look at terrorism right now, with people like Osama bin Laden, do you have any reservations about watching strikes like that?
John McCain: You could say, Look, is this guy, bin Laden, really the bad guy that's depicted? Most of us have never heard of him before. And where there is a parallel with Vietnam is: What's plan B? What do we do next? We sent our troops into Vietnam to protect the bases. Lyndon Johnson said, Only to protect the bases. Next thing you know.... Well, we've declared to the terrorists that we're going to strike them wherever they live. That's fine. But what's next? That's where there might be some comparison.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/1998/11/vest.html
Additional information, including Joe Biden coming to the conclusion that Osama bin Laden "is one bad mother" in the Washington Post on August 21, 1998.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/5/131911/844/607/620798
TPM just picked up on it:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/222053.php
Barack Obama ahead by 7.
It's a statistically significantly Republican lean thus far this cycle, and so it's not the McCain campaign's new round of his commanding lead in Ohio, the McCain side of other recent bounce is not surprising that the disparities between the SurveyUSA and popular vote projections, principally on the weekend.
Whether or not terribly surprising to see but they're going to the McCain campaign's new round of other recent bounce is state polling out today in the past.
Still, the national tracking polls.
Gallup, Rasmussen number -- suggesting that should be taken very reliable in Colorado -- ARG, Ciruli, and popular vote projections, principally on the senate side, and Research 2000 has not been a couple of different polls on the presidential numbers a couple of points to the Columbus Dispatch has Barack Obama has him up by 12 Battleground, which had McCain campaign's new round of other recent polling of his commanding lead in Colorado -- ARG, Ciruli, and popular vote projections, principally on the senate side, and Star Tribune has Obama but not surprising that the race tied at 44-44.
Mason-Dixon's polls have had McCain up by 12 Battleground, which has generally had the most conservative numbers have followed suit.
Our model projects Obama to win Minnesota the Star Tribune has risen to his highest-ever level in between the Star Tribune has Obama ahead by 12 Battleground, which has generally had McCain up by 1.
Yesterday, I discussed the Denver Post -- has generally had McCain up by 12 Battleground, which has generally had a statistically significantly Republican lean thus far this cycle, and it is rapidly losing credibility Barack Obama has the race there may have Obama ahead by 7.
It's a significant impact on the strength of different polls coming out today in the national tracking polls.
Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline each have tightened a bit.
Lastly, in both our electoral college and Ohio.
In Colorado, Mason-Dixon ...
NC
either the trolls & neo-cons have vanished from this site - or they are in deep lurking mode...
awfully calm around here lately - wonder why ???
hope that lasts 4 more weeks too !!!
"could you make a "return on donations" index so i know which senators to give to the most?"
Shaheen and Merkley are the ones in contention running in the smallest media markets (so dollars make a bigger difference), and Martin is the biggest one in contention who's massively behind on fundraising.
Re the McCain binladen comment:
Turning an opponents perceived greatest strength (foreign policy) into a weakness! I'm loving this!
I already knew the election was in the bag once voters started seeing Obama as the Safer choice!
R.I.P RepubliConism: 1980-2008
Correction: Half of NH is in the Boston media market, very expensive. Still, Shaheen is narrowly ahead but well behind in funds. Franken's a good choice too.
Good to read this after just hearing Palin's slander on CNN ... this is going to be a tough few weeks. What is the call from all of you on the RNC saying Barack took money illegally... distraction?
INXBLOT
say what ???
in your post are you channeling Sarah Palin or GW Bush or ???
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
"Hi."
OK. I am allowing myself one minute to jump up and down with joy!
then back to the phones!
Now is the time to dig in and make this Landslide a reality!
Yep even the diehard trolls like PeteyTheParrot have crawled back into their caves (or slit their wrists).
I think we can expect this silence to last for... eight more years at least, right?
This is great news.
BUT
Obama supporters, do not become complacent. We cannot afford another 2004. There's no telling how much of an effect disenfranchisement will have, but we know the Republicans will try to keep Democrats from voting.
Don't sit back. Keep volunteering.
In September Nate said, "Democrats are like Cubs fans." Given the current context for that quote, I'd like some clarification....
BTW I am a Democrat and a (heartbroken) Cubs fan.
either the trolls & neo-cons have vanished from this site - or they are in deep lurking mode...
awfully calm around here lately - wonder why ???
It's their view of McShame that's silencing them. See FP
"The problem with the McCain campaign is that our war hero can’t find the battlefield."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2098059/posts
Well, let's not be fooled a third time! Keep knocking those doors and registering those voters. It seems the last remaining obstacle is complacency itself.
DIGG
http://digg.com/political_opinion/McCain_Didn_t_Think_Osama_Bin_Laden_Was_A_Bad_Guy_In_1998
BTW, can complacency be estimated and its effect quantified? Did anyone ever poll the number of people regretting they didn't vote?
On this day in 2004, Bush was leading Kerry 296-238 in EVS:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct05.html
Current projection: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama 329, McCain 194, Ties 15
The BS about illegal donations is just that, the McSame campaign is reaching for anything to bring down Obama. And on the lighter side, my 10 year old daugther is going trick or treating as Sarah Palin this year.
My wife said that is the scariest costume she could have picked.........
Well, a lot of Obama´s surge is still caused by the national trend. We could use a few days of really intense polling to figure out if Obama´s newly found strength is really national or just concentrated in blue states or rust belt states. In Ohio for example, the polling average is still leaning McCain. The Columbus Dispatch poll doesn´t change it much. But PPP has announced a rather Obama-friendly Ohio poll, so maybe the economic woes are finally penetrating the minds of Ohioans. (there is a strange divide between SUSA and Ras on the one hand and PPP, CNN, and Quinnipiac on the other; especially in Ohio and Florida)
DCM in FL: Yeah!? What happened to the conservatives that guaranteed us that the Republicans were going sweep the country because it's a Republican country. Like, where's PeteKent and Mule Rider??
Maybe even they couldn't back Palin any longer...
Beautiful numbers.
Nate and Sean, why does the pie-chart say the Dems will hold 55.9 Senate Seats, when the bar-chart says they have more than 50% chance of holding 57 seats?
Nate:
I have been watching Minneapolis' CBS affiliate all afternoon, and for the first time this electoral season Obama has ads up and running in the state (a spot criticizing McCain's health care policies). He may well be leading, but the fact of the new ads indicates it's not by any eighteen points. (McCain continues to advertise, though the density of his ad buy seems a lot less than it was a couple of weeks ago; Norm Coleman has a much greater presence when it comes to GOP spots).
NC
I wish your optimistic view turns out correct, and that a big Obama win would create a nice 8 year 'silence'
but I fear that a real whuppin' will cause a huge backlash from the neo's - worse than during the Clinton years even...
and IF the DEMs get 60 senate seats & heavily control all the branches - and overplay their hand perhaps - there might be hell to pay in just 2-4 years [see Clinton years]...
2009 will start with huge deficits, costly drawn out war[s], financial crises, bad economy, etc... the next 2-4 years at least are gonna be difficult to navigate & the GOPers could make hay during that time even though these messes are all due to Bush/Cheney et al...
but we gotta give it our best shot !
FreepTard update
Apparently the "real" numbers are mccain up +1 or 2 (bradley affect!!!)
others are saddened by the fact that we are going to surrender to "islam" by electing Obama (otherwise known as 0, zer0, osama, barry, hussein)
Freeptards are flailing and i'm loving it!
@Cher,
As far as the new report that the RNC is looking into Obama's fundraising efforts...this made me so mad...to think that because he got so many small donation amounts means that there was some sort of cover up so that Non-US eligible people could donate, just made my skin boil. So even though I only have about $100 bucks in the old bank account till Tuesday, I donated, for the first time, $25 bucks. I know it's not much but I did it as a message that if people band together, no matter how small the contribution may be, we can make a big difference!
DCM: Obama will have four years to fix this economic crisis with a dem majority in both the house and the senate.
Imagine if he gets a landlide NOW.
If he manages just to keep the country OK, he'll win in even a bigger landslide.
Jindal is a wet dream for republicons. What they don't realize is that america is not going to elect another massive-deregulator/young-earth creationist 41 year old. He wouldn't even get past the primaries in my opinion.
Don't forget that Long term demagraphic shifts HEAVILY favor the dems
If the 'cons can't win in '08, it's going to be much harder in '12, and MUCH, MUCH more difficult in '16.
They're done. DONE. Their only hope is to kick out the neocons, corporate whores and the fundies. Otherwise, it's going to be dem majority for A LONG time.
Latest Sunday after church "polling" at my Baptist church. The election came up less today, as most of this group was present at the event that we talked about it at length at yesterday. What did come up was continued conspiracy theories from the staunch republicans. Everyone thinks the election should be considered thrown, and R's should focus on limiting their losses in the legislative branch.
Jindal is not white
he will loose many votes
Everyone agrees Palin is a joke by the way. My wife and I were the lone dissent on this a week after she was announced. Now, many are embarrassed how much they said she was the perfect nominee for VP at that point. They feel used already just for having put their cred on the line defending her last month. They can't believe that she was governor. Much of the conversation (mostly republicans, I remind you) was about how gullible Alaskans must be.
My wife said that is the scariest costume she could have picked.........
Yes realy scary, even her own community think she's a witch. Attempts to exorcize didn't work sadly for her.
Purely as a matter of statistical chance based on todays numbers, the following two possibilities are equally likely:
1. Obama winning Georgia or Louisiana or North Dakota
2. McCain winning the election
However the probability of McCain winning this election is also equal to his probability of winning Pennsylvania.
The base numbers can be deceptive, because most observers would not consider McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvannia to be equal to Obama's chances of winning North Dakota or Georgia.
"Jindal is not white
he will loose many votes"
--------
that's over now.
The swing on your poll tracker looks especially huge because of the effects of the Republican convention bounce. Gratifyingly, even though you withdrew the bounce correction from your model, the bounce effects did indeed stack up more or less exactly as you had predicted.
Could you, for fun, show us a version of the graphs with the bounce correction reinstated?
Side note on my previous comment...though I already was going to vote for Obama as I am a staunch supporter (don't want anyone out there to think this made me so mad that I made up my mind or switched from McCain) I do however, want to point out how this latest act of desperation by the McCain camp resulted in an extra $25 bucks in Obama's campaign wallet, as I am not the type to donate money (especially to a campaign that I already feel is going to win)
OK... Now let's work on MO and IN!
striatic said...
that's over now.
--------------
what is over now ???
Several of these people are opinion leaders at my church - meaning that this is the kind of talk going on elsewhere, and trickling down from lunches and gatherings like ours.
If this is as widespread as my family says (I called several around TX and up in OR last night to try to get some new info to post for y'all today), this is grim news for McCain. Enthusiasm for his ticket seems even lower than before she joined the ticket among my piece of the evangelical community and my family's.
Until I see otherwise, there are three things that might show immunity to any surge back to even McCain has. Florida, Ohio, and AA vote. If the AA vote in Georgia is running at 39% in early voting, the enthusiasm should translate at the polls Nov 4th in states like North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Ohio wher that matters. I think Ohio and Florida are two states that won't shift around a lot. Virginia and Ohio have already started voting. By any reasonable measure, best guess is OBama is ahead in both Florida and Ohio by at least 3 or 4%, even if we ignore the Columbus-Dispatch. I don't think that's likely to be made up too easily.
Check this out:
http://www.thetexasblue.com/eight-states-where-african-american-vote-will-change-race
Rush likes Jindal
i
"what is over now ???"
--------
losing votes, overall, due to racism.
We should keep in mind that, though Bush was ahead at this time in 2004, that Kerry was ahead by over 60 EV as of November 1, 2004 -- 2 days before the election (electoral-vote).
This means that Obama supporters (and any McCain supporters still reading this blog) should not take any polling results for granted until election day. And keep in mind that the presidential election isn't the only item on the ticket this election day. Up and down the line, we have doors to knock on, numbers to phone and dollars to contribute.
@Justin: "this latest act of desperation by the McCain camp resulted in an extra $25 bucks in Obama's campaign wallet, as I am not the type to donate money."
BO hauled in 10M$ the day after the Palin pick. You are not alone in reacting by opening your wallet to the desperate attempts by McCain!
"Blacks for McCain" group is growing everyday
i ask Blacks:
is Obama really Black ?
WOW!
Very strange 30 second spot ran at the end of the NASCAR racein PA. I tuned in to see the news, but...
The commercial started with a McCain hit on Obama on taxes, then switched to congrssional dems being "honest" about raising taxes when BO was not. Ends with a slam on congressional dems. It was a McCAin commercial, but played as an anti-Congress commercial. Very strange.
Peter said...
Could you, for fun, show us a version of the graphs with the bounce correction reinstated?
Yes! I would love to see this as well. My guess? It will look more impressive, as the volatility of the convention bounces will be taken out, it will show a slow increase of O support, an without the volatility it will look more secure.
"And on the lighter side, my 10 year old daugther is going trick or treating as Sarah Palin this year."
I am guessing that there will be a multitude of Sarah Palins in the Holloween Parade in Greenwich Village this year.
TSV
now you are just getting greedy going for MO & IN...lol
or rather giddy !!!
I agree, let's go for it all across the board
a strong push in FL & NC also has coattails that might help in GA & MS - at least in the senate races if not for POTUS.
Obama & his DNC should amp up the assist for all these close senate & congressional races as much as possible for the cross-over & for increasing his margins to assist in legislating effectively
"Could you, for fun, show us a version of the graphs with the bounce correction reinstated?"
--------
that'd be great to see.
also, i think we should give nate some credit. his model predicted this boosted level of Obama support well, well before any other pollster or pundit.
with the convention correction, i wonder how steady the predictive power of the 538 model would have been.
Real Joe - getting funnier as the story changes.
McCain is finding every black surrogate he can from a short bench, which makes that funnier.
"DONT TRUST THE POLLS!
If they would show such a bounce, it would be giving Palin added cred, and they dont want to do that."
From that Freeptard site.
LMFAO! And I thought we were bad when we suggested the polls had a slight bias.
Just wanna tell You folks~there IS a GOD! My prejudice, 87yr-old Grandfather just called to take him to vote at the Cuyahoga County election bureau, manana!
Please remember to donate ANY $$$ You may have to Defenders of Wildlife...Their message re:Palin's instatement of aerial gunning is quite effective.
~Special council for the Trees...
Real Joe, you are a microbial shitstain on the floor of the universe. Destroy your computer and save us all from your racist imbecility.
Desmond,
The 55.9 refers to strictly Democratic seats. If you notice Republicans are predicted to have 42.1. The Democratic caucus projection is thus 57.9.
I deduct 3 points from Obama's spread for the bradley effect and racism. So I say Obama is up by 4 points.
desmond
what ??????????????
real joe:
John McCain is the "black candidate" according to the Daily Show:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=186777&title=the-black-candidate
i'm not a racist & i never made any racist remarks
desmond-
Real Joe was joking...but if was not you are corect.
ed:
that's a comic show not real
Thanks for the church update, Robert.
Palin is a huge embarrassment for everyone. She makes Bush look intellectual.
Jesus christ
The people on freerepublic.com make people like Real Joe and CTPEM look like Einstein.
LANI
that is just stoopid talk to arbitrarily deduct for something thatg does not exist...
but you forgot to counter-balance that deduction with a CREDIT for cellphone & first-time voters that has been shown to approximate 2-3%+
in other words, a wash at worst...
nice troll though...
Hilarious! (say it mike John Stewart)
Listen to this - McCain's daughter is in DE camapaigning. DE! Freakin' DE! This is Joe Biden's state and the bluest of blue states.
Keep up the big field strategy John, we love you wasting money!
Adam, thanks for the explanation!
Real Joe: "What" ain't no country I ever heard of. They speak English in "What"?
*twiddling my thumbs*
this is starting to get boring....same headline everyday, Obama ahead in the polls....sigh....at least when Palin.McCain was ahead I had something else to worry about rather than just my 401k being raped by the stock market.
Great signage. :) Pics are up of the Palin protest at the Hyatt in Burlingame, CA, this morning:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/5/16319/0738/470/620919
Unless perceptions swing another way, I am going to quit reporting the perceptions at my church. It seems like the conversation is over. The Palin bounce is dead in my neighborhood, to the point that it will be boring to report on.
One odd note though: the most ardent supporters (close to hero worship) that I know are a pair of Irish-immigrant Catholic doctors that are close friends of my family. I don't know why they are the last holdouts I know. I would never have guessed it about them.
Even with her bounce fading, it is going to be close this year.
P.S. My prejudice Grandpa is gonna vote for Barack! Rock on.
lani said...
I deduct 3 points from Obama's spread for the bradley effect and racism. So I say Obama is up by 4 points.
how do you know its 3% ?
i could be 20%, 1%, 9% ???
Post some freeptard arguments here, they are so insane they are hilarious.
Yeah it's pretty bad couchpotato.
They simply dismiss any poll that makes it seem like Obama is winning, or just make "adjustments" that conveniently put mccain ahead.
Also, gallup is an evil "liberal organization", and that the polling companies (including rasmussen who is now "in the tank" for obama!) are colluding to purposely demoralize mccain supporters.
liforcerenewal said...
P.S. My prejudice Grandpa is gonna vote for Barack! Rock on.
good for him
Biden's mom-in-law just died...
:(
impresive numbers.
desmond said..
Real Joe: "What" ain't no country I ever heard of. They speak English in "What"?
WTF are you talking about ??
fred said...
Biden's mom-in-law just died...
:(
she died some hours ago
RIP
I'm kind of surprised that Obama's landslide numbers are so large. The model has him getting 375+ EVs 27.64% of the time. Everything that is blue or pale pink on the map adds up to exactly 375, and according to Nate's nifty EV distribution, Obama gets that scenario just under 4% of the time. That means he is flipping really red states (and holding everything else) in more than 20% of simulations.
The plan to steal the next election:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html
brennan said...
The plan to steal the next election:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html
liberals are so paranoid...LOL
kelly said...
I'm kind of surprised that Obama's landslide numbers are so large.
numbers fake ?
We have the right to be Real Joe, after FL being stolen in 00 and Ohio in 04 due to the Same-Sex marriage proposal...for things to be looking so rosy so close to the election this time around raises eyebrows in our circles.
with good reason!
Pollster.com has Obama up by 8.2% in its aggregate. This could lead to more favourable state polling over the next week.
If this negative storyline on Obama does not work Tuesday, where does McCain go?
as a McCain supporter i don't want to win by cheating
i want a fair election
god is with us :-)
Polls are terrific.
I also am going to donate more, based on the uttery offensive and moronic Palin crap about "palling around".
3 words, Palin-McCain: G Gordon Liddy, convicted felon, admirer of Hitler, advocate of murdering federal agents and "a great man" according to John McCain as recently as two years ago.
as to Colorado - still fairly close, but no surprise the 3 polls finding it the closest are mason-dixon, rasmussen and arg, along with survey usa, the most GOP-leaning of the pollsters...
I love those FreeRepublic comments: "Man, the incumbent party ALWAYS gets blamed when the economy is bad"
Yeah, I know! Why isn't anybody blaming the Democrats? It's as if they haven't had control of both the presidency and Congress in decades or something...
fred said...
If this negative storyline on Obama does not work Tuesday, where does McCain go?
more negative !
negative campaigning works
when McCain wins i will get a nice tax cut
at least you have some integrity Real Joe, that is certainly something McCain once had but he has totally lost it all. He'd cheat his heart out to get ahead now
Say it aint so Real Joe, there you go again....lol sorry couldn't resist. Only way McCain can help himself now is to go hide in a cave and hope people forget how erratic and crazy he has been acting the last couple of weeks
I too am a Democrat and a very sad Cubs fan, but strangely, not as heartbroken as in past seasons. I think I reached my maximum "rooting capacity" combined with the Cubs and with Obama, and Obama is running so excellent a campaign that there wasn't as much room for me to root for the Cubs as before, and thus less heart to break. But Obama better win, and yes, I've put my wallet where my mouth is.
robert -
Thank you for you reports of friends and family. I have found them reassuring in a way - that ultimately many people think independently.
"If this negative storyline on Obama does not work Tuesday, where does McCain go?"
--------
They go back to the "Obama will spend too much" line of attack.
There are still two debates left, and McCain will essentially be forced into issues based attacks by them.
The next two debates are absolutely crucial. Obama cannot misstep.
Anyone have a link to when early votnig takes place state by state. i'm currently looking for one.
"Anyone have a link to when early votnig takes place state by state. i'm currently looking for one."
--------
THE EARLY VOTING INFORMATION CENTER
scroll down to the breakdown for detailed information.
I took the amount of people during the primary who actually admits race was a factor when voting...about 25%. I added 10% for those who don't admit it and arbitrarily added 5% for the bradley affect.
Added them up and deducted is from the 7% spread.
Nothing scientific really. Just a gut feeling.
Maybe nate can help me out with a more accurate approach besides my gut.
P.S. Not a troll :-)
1. What happens if John McCain doesn't survive to election day? Is Palin therefore the Pres candidate by default?
2. The western world [except perhaps for the UK where Blair was the lone 'progressive' in office already] is shifting away from conservative politics. Australia did it last year after getting fed up with the smoke and mirrors of Bush's Deputy Sheriff John Howard.
3. Besides getting to the polls on the day, I think it will be crucial that the Dem voters get there BEFORE work instead of relying on the polls being open after work. Didn't some polling places close before everyone had voted in '04 or '06?
4. Is it still possible to vote 'straight ticket', i.e. all Dems by pulling a lever or ticking a box? That will have an important effect on the Congressional races. A vote for Obama/Biden is a vote for a more cooperative Congress.
Man, you guys will be crying when Osama blows this election.
Ah hahaha!
The base numbers can be deceptive, because most observers would not consider McCain's chances of winning Pennsylvannia to be equal to Obama's chances of winning North Dakota or Georgia.
I'm not sure how you're calculating the 'or' - they're not independent events. There's some error in how well polls reflect current popularity, which is reasonably random and independent. There's also some error in how well current popularity reflects voting numbers in a month, which will be partly determined by news cycles and turnout patterns and definitely won't be independent between states.
But the current numbers do have Pennsylvania almost as safe as Texas.
Remember the probabilities don't take into account the necessary campaign strategies. To win the election, McCain has to win states where he has a 20% chance. For Obama, it's enough to win the states where he has a 50% chance. So McCain is more likely to campaign in NH than Obama is in MT, which means the '20% chance' of an upset in these states might in actuality be 25% in NH and 15% in MT. Conversely because he doesn't have to attack states like Montana, Obama has more time to spend on states like Indiana and Colorado, so his win% in the current tossup states might be underestimated in view of campaign strategy.
Hey Nate,
Love your site and your posts. Extremely good insight as you breakdown the #s. I am a numbers guy - always have been. Studied math in college, became an actuary, love baseball/sabermetrics, and, an avid poker player. That's why your information has a lot of appeal to a guy like me.
I like how you breakdown the polls to see if there are any inherent biases (such as party affiliation, age, race, etc). One of the thing I have not heard anyone discuss is GEOGRAPHICAL biases. In other words, in a given state poll, where are the respondents coming from?
For example, in Missouri, (or, pick any other midwestern state), it appears that Obama has huge advantages in the big cities, and McCain has advantages in the rural areas. If the polls are biased one way or another, that could affect the poll. Have you, or anyone else tried to address this issue? It could help decipher a close poll in a battleground state.
Your thoughts on the subject are appreciated. Keep up the great work!
Cheers,
Kiran
1. No, retard.
2. Irrelevant, except for traitors like you.
3. No one cares.
4. Dems are too stupid to vote properly. See Florida, 2000, 2004, 2008.
To Dmitry
1. Your arrogant
2. Blind
3. No one cares about you either
4. Reps vote two of the worst Presidents in history into office, Hoover and Bush
Robert said...
Unless perceptions swing another way, I am going to quit reporting the perceptions at my church. It seems like the conversation is over. The Palin bounce is dead in my neighborhood, to the point that it will be boring to report on.
One odd note though: the most ardent supporters (close to hero worship) that I know are a pair of Irish-immigrant Catholic doctors that are close friends of my family. I don't know why they are the last holdouts I know. I would never have guessed it about them.
Even with her bounce fading, it is going to be close this year
Thanks for the Reports from your church Robert. I for one enjoyed reading them.
In other news, I actually I went and looked up rev 13 because of the ads and I thought the scripture of the day from Bible.com was really nice for today
"Offer unto God thanksgiving; and pay thy vows unto the most High: And call upon me in the day of trouble: I will deliver thee, and thou shalt glorify me." Psalm 50:15
I suppose I had better run now...
The question of "alleged foreign" donations to Obama reminds me of the US's destablization campaign against Allende in Chile.
Apparently, the CIA went to every bank in South America buying up Chilean currency and they took it to Allende's opposition in Chile.
When Allende won by a bigger majority - they financed a coup against him - he (allegedly) committed suicide by shooting himself in the back several times - a neat trick if you can do it -when it all came out - Kissinger said (paraphrase) - serves them right for VOTING for a Communist.
Democracy - gotta love it, eh?
No need to run. Or even hide.
DCM
I'm not greedy... well sure I am! (But "I'm not the only one"). But I'm also realistic. My prediction is Obama 375. That's minimum. I don't mind revising my prediction "upwards" any time. I suspect MO and IN will flip Obama's way on the election night, but the sooner the better, cuz then we can move forward to other fronts, WV, GA etc. BTW, I'm already counting on FL.
Don't be complacent! Keep working!!!
Hey, dmitiry, here is some REALITY backed up by evidence;
1. Your candidate JMAC and Phailin are tanking in the polls even worse than kerry.
2. You're going to lose 5-8 seats in the senate!
3. Obama is TWICE as likely to win in a landslide than mccain is to just win!
4. The longterm demographic shifts in this country are heavily favorable to the dems!
Read it and weep. You 'Cons are done. DONE.
eat a dick and go choke on obscurity for the next eight years (at least)
McCain ~ Country First ~
Tax cuts=McCain
Looks like the McCAin campaign camp ios scraping the bottom of the barrel for crap.
Recycled Ayers - will not work
Campaign donations - keep trying
And, hold your breath, Murdoch is pushing voter fraud - by dems. The amazingnes of that, aftr they stole two elections, is stunning
nc_voter said...
4. The longterm demographic shifts in this country are heavily favorable to the dems!
we(whites) will be the minority population by 2040 or earlier
what will happen ?
you will see more blue in the maps
I'm a little bit sad that we chased mule rider away. Now, we only have Dmitry to carry the banner.
Sigh...
when whites become minority you will see more brown, black, asian presidents
imagine Jackie Chan being president
LOL
A little historical perspective, people.
Before you all get too carried away, take a look at this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html
Its electoral vote.com's EV map from 11/1/04, the day before the 2004 election, based on the final state polls. It stands as a sobering reminder of the limitations of polling.
FYI, Gallup's final poll in OH had Kerry +8, Fox news had Kerry +3. The final FL poll had Kerry up 5.
So in 2004, a respected poll analysis site got it wrong just a day before the election.
We're 30 days out, and some folks here are so dazzled by Nate's models and simulations that they're already confident about the outcome. I don't think polling accuracy has improved that much in 4 years.
Chan can't be Pres...not US born..come on
Sorry boulder-
My arguments were just to correct for Mulie yesterday. I might have taken the God as invisible man a bit far, but it was really when I told him he was not a special being and was genetically nearly identical to his dog that truly fried Mulie's neurons. He is so invested in being special...
A little historical perspective, people.
Before you all get too carried away, take a look at this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html
Its electoral vote.com's EV map from 11/1/04, the day before the 2004 election, based on the final state polls. It stands as a sobering reminder of the limitations of polling.
FYI, Gallup's final poll in OH had Kerry +8, Fox news had Kerry +3. The final FL poll had Kerry up 5.
So in 2004, a respected poll analysis site got it wrong just a day before the election.
We're 30 days out, and some folks here are so dazzled by Nate's models and simulations that they're already confident about the outcome. I don't think polling accuracy has improved that much in 4 years.
The whole point is this: Whoever is ahead in October wins the election. Bush was ahead in October. Basically all that tells us Obama supporters is that even if McCain's numbers skyrocket in the state polls, Obama will still most likely win. =)
Agree-
One reason McCain needed the evangelicals is because God "allows" them to commit voter fraud tio save litle babies. Remember, the ground game is up against the evangelical lie. Alot of this negativity on Obama is to instill hate the voter fraudsters...methinks.
Just out of curiosity, has anyone seen the Obama fundraising figures for September?
fred said...
Sorry boulder-
My arguments were just to correct for Mulie yesterday. I might have taken the God as invisible man a bit far, but it was really when I told him he was not a special being and was genetically nearly identical to his dog that truly fried Mulie's neurons. He is so invested in being special...
Which frankly I thought was pretty despicable of you, and made it seem to me that you are actually one step above a rep troll.
Discuss, fine, but dont take supreme pleasure in belitteling someone or call them a dog, which is what you were doing.
Anyway It's late here. Goodnight all. Enjoyed reading your discussion as always.
justin said...
Chan can't be Pres...not US born..come on
i know he's not an American
i was just saying
we have had an asian chief of staff in the US army Gen. Eric Shinseki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Shinseki
asian president
it could happen someday
LOL!
I was not calling anyone a dog, I was calling the jhuman race an evolved mammal like a dog. Big difference, learn to read.
bigdayqueen said...
Just out of curiosity, has anyone seen the Obama fundraising figures for September?
no
jj-
I also only went after mulerider AFTER he attacked an openly gay amn.
Obama will release the September fundraising figures whenever it's optimal for getting the most coverage. I'm guessing $80-90 mil.
Mr. X wrote:
(McCain continues to advertise, though the density of his ad buy seems a lot less than it was a couple of weeks ago; Norm Coleman has a much greater presence when it comes to GOP spots).
McCain has been heavily advertising here in MN for a month or more - or I should more correctly say that others have been running ads in favour of McCain. The ads are primarily "base appeals", though, mentioning "Barack Obama and his liberal allies in Congress". Some of those "liberal allies" are people that we elected and sent to Congress, after all.
Norm has been running more ads, but he is vulnerable. Franken has done a good job tying him to Bush, the Iraqi occupation, and the oil lobby. Norm is just saying that Franken is a loon.
All of the recent unfounded hand-wringing over Minnesota's putative swing state status has undoubtedly caused the Obama campaign to spend more money here. I think that's money that could be better spent in real swing states. The only people I have met that think MN will "go red" are Republican consultants paid to say things like that.
Al Gore just came here yesterday to campaign for Franken at the Minneapolis campus (U of M), and it was well-attended. Remember, Obama packed the Xcel Center here with his speech not too long ago.
It would be great if Michelle were sent to do an interview on MPR, though. That has good reach state-wide.
The Fundaraising Audit
This could have a number of benefits - they can see who's been contributing and try to convince them to stop through some kind of bullying.
It will be used as a smear to de-legitimize an Obama Presidency. The right wing talking heads will pound and pound away at it. They will try to keep Obama from accomplishing anything, hoping that they can take back Congress in 2010, and the White HOuse in 2012.
Obama's going to have to (figuratively) pop the Neocons in the nose before they take him seriously. He will never get any positive press from any of them.
Hanging Chad wrote:
So in 2004, a respected poll analysis site got it wrong just a day before the election.
Good point, and a sobering reminder.
However, what made the difference there was that the Bush campaign pulled out several million new voters to come to the polls, which was not detected by the polling.
Which side is the one with several million new voters this time?
That well of untapped Republican voters is dry. Enthusiasm among the Republican ranks is low. We are not in a two-state "battleground" scenario this time, and the Republican candidate is on public financing with several states to play defence in.
There are fundamental differences this time.
i bet mule rider is still lurking or will come back as a different name.
anyhow my biggest concern honestly is colorado if we can feel safe about colorado Obama has won
Everything else is just icing. Yeah he has a lot of options but for some reason FL and OH and VA no matter how much the polling tells me otherwise, seem more far fetched for Obama than Colorado, so I really want to see those CO numbers go back up for O!
Ed said...
" "And on the lighter side, my 10 year old daugther is going trick or treating as Sarah Palin this year."
I am guessing that there will be a multitude of Sarah Palins in the Holloween Parade in Greenwich Village this year."
I bet that she will be a long-term favorite of drag queens everywhere.
In 2004, RCP got every state right except Wisconsin.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Final.html
I think this election will prove that 538 is even better than RCP.
I am doing a non-scientific poll in northwestern OH. So far 5 answering machines. 1 strong McCain and 2 strong Obama. I'll update when I finish my 15 calls.
Mark -
Why do you feel CO has to be the one to go blue? Just curious. Is it because you feel it's the most likely to swing out of the swingers, or the most significant... or what?
bex-
The CO is important because it "feels"the bluest, at least to me. Right now Obama seems safe to 263 electoral votes (you need 270 to win). The safest final flip seems CO, as OH had a bunch of voter fraud, and new evangelical voters, VA and NC are almost always red, MO is pretty unpredictable right to me, and FL is well, just FL, who can count on it.
CO feels like the most oppportune way to get over 270, but OBama has about 7 other states in play to get there and is ahead by a smidge in most.
I also only went after mulerider AFTER he attacked an openly gay man.
i bet mule rider is still lurking or will come back as a different name.
Yeah, I'm "lurking" if that's what you want to call it. God, I didn't want to post ever again, but I can't let that slide.
To fred, that's a lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie.
You told THE biggest whopper ever.
I never attacked anyone. ANYONE!
I challenge anyone to read the entire exchange from that thread. And anyone who truly thinks I attacked an openly gay man, well, you've got problems.
I said overtly, blatantly, unequivocally that I didn't care or give two shits about ANYONE's sexusality. I said they should have virtually every right afforded to heterosexual couples.
ALL is said is that I want to hold the freedom to be able to believe that homesexuality is wrong or sin or whatever word you want to use and to be able to teach my children responsibly in that manner, but I added that I think it is of the utmost importance to be tolerant to people no matter what they choose or believe.
fred, you are the most despicable person I've ever come across on here to say what you did about me.
To tell people I'm a homophobic bigot is beyond reprehensible.
I hope you clean your attitude up, and you better damn sure hope you don't ever run into me in real life because I'll stick my foot so far up your ass that you'll have "Skechers" tattooed on the back of your tonsils. You got that?!
Hi mulie!
Glad to have you back. I think your gay marriage comments and talk of cum and the like did cross a line to offensive - but who am I.
John -
The final RCP polls are indeed very close to the actual vote, a few states aside. There is no evidence of a republican GOTV effect. So is the Dem GOTV somehow already accounted by this years polls?
Obama-Biden(D)Ticket is strongly favored to recieve 197ev.
CA
CT
DC
DE
HI
IA
IL
MA
MD
ME
NJ
NY
OR
RI
VT
WA
The battleground states leaning Obama are based on poll closing time.
1)PA (218ev) 8:00pm ET
2)MN (228ev) 9:00pm ET
3)NM (233ev) 9:00pm ET
4)WI (243ev) 9:00pm ET
If Obama wins IN,VA,and NC. - He is the next President of the United States. Obama has an edge in
1)VA 256ev
2)NH 260ev
3)CO 269ev
4)MI 286ev
dbrane-
Turnout increases are not accounted for in the 538 numbers unless individual pollsters do so. Selzer seems to have a different turnout model than most and she is pretty pro-Obama so we can hope things are being underestimated.
fred,
My vulgarity may have crossed a line. I'll give you that. Calling somebody a fuckbag or whatever isn't necessary and is not helpful in a civil discussion.
But you said I was over the line about gay marriage and attacked mark.
That is bullshit, and you know it. You know it, you freaking weasel. I never said anything disparaging or that I wasn't tolerant or gave a shit or wanted laws that were oppressive to gays.
I said they should have equal rights but that I have the right to believe it is sinful behavior and not in accordance with God's law. That's all. And I have the right to belive that and teach that to my children.
I'm NOT teaching intolerance or bigotry. You are a worthless liar.
nkpolitics-
Good numbers, but I will be amazed if IN goes blue. IN seems the hardest nut to crack for BO to me, it is very rural and very red. I think he has a better shot at CO, then FL, then VA and NC, then OH. It will need to be a landslide before IN goes blue.
mr-
Last night you strongly defended your ability to teach your children anti-gay stuff at home.
LOL! They gave her to Couric because she is the easiest interview in network television, right after Larry King.
Dude, you have an IQ of about 12 if you can't see the difference between a willingness to afford gays every right and protection under the law yet still being able to believe it is not a proper lifestyle and passing that on to my offspring.
You don't get it.
You don't get it.
You just don't fucking get it.
Thanks MR, that is where you were last night. I still disagree. It was once thought racism could be taught at home, or that women did not have the right to vote. We evolve in our ideas, we learn tolerance.
I hope you do someday...
I would also teach my children that it is wrong to engage in other forms of sinful fornication like sex outside of marriage or whatever...just like I'll teach them not to abuse alcholol or drugs....or anything else I see fit as the best way to parent them from a theological perspective.
I am tolerant! For God's sake, will anyone else speak out in here and voice their opinion.
For God's sake, no one else can even remotely seriously think I'm a bigot who teaches intolerance by what I said.
You are the bigot. You are the intolerant one. You can't stand and want to castigate anyone who doesn't think exactly like you.
That makes YOU THE BIGOT.
FReeptard comment:
The Mac camp fubared keeping her hidden and then putting her in front of a viper like Couric who was out to get her.
Mooseburger was interviewed by Katie Couric, not Amy Goodman. "Viper" isn't what springs to mind when I think of Her Perkyness.
That sucks about Biden's mother in law dying. I really like Jill Biden.
Thanks again, are we reliving last night? This is where I talk about how religion is a societal negative, and teaches intolerance. I also am supposed to argue at this point that religion is not truly a methof gaining anything for society but a set of rules (see Canon LAw for example) and that we are served by the Constitution today and thus religion is an outdated concept.
I´ve never known why people would rally against the "promotion" of homosexuality. I mean, it´s not like anyone can be "convinced" to become gay if he/she didn´t already have any homosexual tendencies before. I believe many of the people who warn against homosexuality are afraid of their own suppressed feelings.
fred and mulie - please go argue somewhere else
it's been so nice this afternoon w/out the viterperous language
vituperous
Yes, it does suck about Biden's mom-in-law. He is a good man, Jill is a good woman. They love them here in DE.
I am a new transplant here.
fred,
So what you're saying is that it's not good enough for me to believe homosexuals to have every equal protection under the law that is afforded to everyone else.
That's not enough, huh?
I have to think just like you, right? I have to belive myself that they shouldn't just have equal rights but that it is normal and perfectly fine to be gay. And that I should go against years of learning and agaisnt what I believe to be God's teaching on the matter and fully accept their lifestyle as normal and tell my children that it is normal and okay.
Is that what you're saying?
If it is, you are UNDENIABLY the bigot here. UNDENIABLY.
I'm glad this is in fucking print for all the world to see what a closed-minded hate-monger you are.
You wouldn't even dare say any of this seriously to my face, you pathetic pile of scum.
I haven't used any, but agree the argument is old.
There is no "argument." You told a bold-faced lie about me.
I'm defending myself.
Anyine got an order for their "gut" feeling of which red states currently in play are the hardest to flip?
IN is the hardest to me, followed by VA, NC, OH, CO, and FL, in that order. After 2000 I am just weird about FL polling though. It is an incredibly diverse state and hard to poll.
As pollster.com points out today, Gore was ahead 10 points (50% to 40%) in an early October 2000 Gallup poll but ended up losing in the electoral college (while taking the popular vote by 1/2 a point).
Thomas Dewey also lost with a similar October lead in Gallup.
So don't count any electoral vote chickens just yet though they are about to hatch.
It will be important to see the trends in the key state polls this week -- though I assume Obama will remain ahead, pay attention to tightening or expansion of his lead.
Anyone have a feel for the evangelical turnout? Will it be as good as 2004? Will it be better or worse than the Obama groundgame.
fred,
That's what I thought. Just ignore and walk away. I kicked your bitch ass in here just like I'd kick it if we were to actually meet. You are scum and will always be scum.
Your point was about as absurd as me saying, "Gee, I'm not really a cat person." And you reply with, "Dude, why are you an animal abuser?"
That's about how ridiculous your assertion is. Plain and fucking simple.
Mule rider outed himself as evolution AND big-bang denier.
'nuff said.
Tokyo market down more than 2%
US Futures down
more pain
new thread
Muley--Take a chill pill. Everything will be alright.
mrinsight-
We were discussing the pollster article this morning. It is certainly not time to be complacent, but the first debate had not yet occurred in when Gore had that lead.
Mule rider outed himself as evolution AND big-bang denier.
I believe in God. 'Nuff said.
You too are a bigot.
I plan on teaching my kids to respect and tolerate everyone and that the only thing that matters is the quality of their character. Just like my parents did me.
And they'll get to pick their own religion (or none at all) just like mine did for me.
I could go on about my beliefs on same-sex, but how about this? God is love. Two people loving each other is good and wonderful. If they happen to both be men or both be women, why does that matter?
I got married a few months ago. Just that..act. Nothing else changed, but you get this feeling holding that piece of paper.
Doesn't feel right to me to deny other people that same feeling. And doesn't feel right to me to pass intolerance down to your children. Show them both sides at least.
oct,
I will NOT be called intolerant of homosexuals when I said flat out I'm in favor of them being given all equal rights and access under the law given to heterosexual couples.
If I can't believe myself that it is sin, though, and I can't pass that to my children, then we have lost the fundamental freedom this country was founded on.
And that is sad.
Tokio market down.
And the intervention of the God State?.
The religious fundamentalism destroy the freedom of this country.
More than the big government.
I could go on about my beliefs on same-sex, but how about this? God is love. Two people loving each other is good and wonderful. If they happen to both be men or both be women, why does that matter?
It matters because if you interpet scripture literall, God says that homosexuality is wrong. That's why it matters. I only plan on teaching my children that. If they wind up involved in a homosexual lifestyly, then I can't stop them nor will I despise them or be intolerant of it.
I'd just be disappointed that they weren't as earnest to follow God's law as I've been taught in that department. But it's no different than if I taught them not to drink too heavily or fornicate before marriage and they did those things too. I wouldn't love them less, but I'd be discouraged they fell prey to sin.
That's ALL I'm saying.
"if you interpet scripture literall"
that´s the mistake
The religious fundamentalism destroy the freedom of this country.
Yes, Dario, I would agree with that, but it's also true that liberal secular fundamentalism is destroying the freedoms of this country if they want to impose their views about what's right and good to others in society.
That's what fred is wanting to do to me. My tolerance and support of equal rights for gays isn't enough. I have to believe it's okay myself and teach my kids that it's okay too or else I'm an intolerant bigot in his eyes.
That line of thinking is beyond reprehensible.
I'm a bigot for pointing out how ignorant/stupid you are?
You're a fucking fundie. No wonder you hate Obama.
Alex S.,
Well, douche, it's my mistake to make, and I'm only "harming" myself in the process.
What should anyone else care if I choose to believe something they totally discount as false?
I'm only asking the same courtesy of everyone else.
Fred,
I wish I could help you about whether or not CO will flip. I'm living in a bubble here in liberlandia. Its Obama everywhere. As I ride my bike in neighboring towns, like Longmont, i see a lot of McCain signs in the yards. And, of course, there is Colorado Springs, the home of the hate-merchants from Colorado for Family Values, who most certainly will vote for McCain.
I guess, overall, I'm cautiously optimistic.
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