Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope?
Perhaps it is. But that speaks as much to McCain's problems elsewhere on the map as any success he has had in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania does seem to be narrowing a bit: the Muhlenberg / Morning Call tracker is now down to "only" a 10-point lead for Senator Obama, while a Strategic Vision poll puts the race at O +5. Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year, so our model treats that result as the equivalent of a +7 or a +8. Nevertheless, with little progress being made elsewhere, McCain will take what he can get.
Indeed, unlike other recent days, there is no good news for McCain in the national tracking polls. McCain gained a point in the Rasmussen tracker; the other seven all moved toward Obama, although by mere fractions of a point in the cases of Zogby and IBD/TIPP.
McCain’s most severe problems, however, remain at the state level:
As we alluded to this morning, the numbers from PPP out of Colorado and New Mexico, which used very large, list-based samples, are awful news for McCain in states where majorities of the electorate have already voted. Contrary to Rick Davis’s assertions, there is absolutely no reason to conclude that McCain is competitive in Iowa, and there is a slew of evidence that Obama is on track to win New Hampshire, even if the UNH Tracking Poll is now coming a bit off its outlier-ish numbers. Ohio is another big problem for McCain. Except for the Strategic Vision poll, everything else we’ve added to the database over the past several days shows Obama with leads ranging from 3 points to 16 (though the latter result, from Ohio University, looks very much like an outlier). In North Carolina, which seemed to be tightening last week, Obama now appears to be holding on to a very small lead, and much of that state has voted too.
So given this morass, Pennsylvania seems to be the one thing that McCain has to hang his hat on. But he remains very unlikely to win it, and even if he does, Obama has any number of firewall states that could preserve a victory for him. McCain’s win percentage is down to 2.8 percent, his lowest number of the year.
10.31.2008
Today's Polls, 10/31
@ 8:41 PM
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to t from NC -
practically all of Guilford county's votes have been cast
Well, that would make keeping the polls open tomorrow til 5 instead of 1 a little pointless, wouldn't it? ;)
I did my voting at the Friendly Shopping Center location on Wednesday and was just amazed not only at the size of the crowd at 10:20 (which just kept growing), but also how efficient they were. It was like a machine!
On that note, I didn't have any problems with the voting machine, but apparently my SO did. No flipping, but it did try to auto-review his vote for him. Being the smart cookie he is, he pressed the back button to review all his votes that way.
Here is a nice article to keep me awake:
Michael Tomasky
The Guardian, Saturday November 1 2008
So as we reach the finish line: John McCain's pollster declares himself satisfied that the race is functionally tied in the important states; Barack Obama says "we're winning"; while liberals across the US speak fretfully in the subjunctive tense, daring not to tempt fate by saying anything like "when Obama is president".
Are the liberal caution and the McCain quasi-optimism actually warranted? Is there any way the Republican could still win this thing?
The answer mathematically is... yes, he could. And it needn't even hinge on eking out a win in Pennsylvania.
Consider the following electoral-college permutations. Obama wins all the states John Kerry won in 2004, for 252 electoral votes, along with Iowa and New Mexico, two states where he appears to be comfortably ahead and would add 12 to his total for 264 (270 is needed to win). But suppose it stops there and every other battleground state tumbles toward McCain - Ohio and Florida, where Obama's leads are fairly narrow, but also Virginia and Colorado, where his leads are larger but not insurmountable. These are, after all, states that are long accustomed to backing the Republican candidate. In this scenario, McCain wins 274-264.
Let's go it one better. Say McCain does manage a victory in Pennsylvania, where his campaign is circulating fliers comparing him to Hillary Clinton, that seductress of the state's oft-limned blue-collar voters. If he did snare that state's 21 electoral votes, McCain could then afford to lose Virginia (13) and Colorado (nine). Still holding Ohio, Florida etc, he would win 273-265.
Let's try one final scenario. Penn-sylvania ends up in the Obama column, as does Colorado. But McCain's pollster has recent spoken of mysterious "internal numbers" showing Iowa (seven votes) to be somewhat up for grabs. So an electoral cocktail that includes Iowa and Virginia but not Pennsylvania or Colorado would give McCain 272 electoral votes and the presidency.
Though mathematically possible, how likely are any of these scenarios?
Throughout this election, I've relied most regularly on the websites RealClearPolitics and fivethirtyeight.com for polling averages, so let's see what they have to say about the margins in these states as of yesterday. In Pennsylvania, both have Obama ahead by 9.8%. Making up 10% in four days would be a remarkable feat, though not unheard of. Obama is six points ahead in Virginia and Colorado, and has a 11% lead in Iowa. Now let's recall that all the above scenarios are possible only if McCain wins Ohio. In what we call the Buckeye state, the websites have Obama ahead by about 5%.
McCain doesn't have a lead in any major poll in any of these states. He would truly need a tsunami to hit that would shift the race in his direction by five to 10 points in the final days - a swing very nearly without precedent.
But still, Obama supporters' emotional continuum runs from cautious to outright neurotic. Liberal election anxiety is grounded in the hard experiences of 2000 and 2004. We tend to assume that any mention by the Republicans of "taxes", "terrorism" and "socialism" will send middle America dashing fearfully into their arms. We suspect that those same Americans will wake next Tuesday morning and say to themselves: "It's just now dawned on me that that fellow is black; I can't possibly vote for him."
The former hasn't happened, and the latter is increasingly implausible. As the days dwindle down to a precious few, as Kurt Weill put it, caution is well-advised. But neurosis would seem to be an indulgence. It's a good thing that the candidate himself doesn't suffer from it
I'm wondering ... are the mysterious "internal polls" really just a reverse feedback loop taking data from the campaign canvassers and phone bankers? They represent thousands of touch points on a daily basis. Are any 538 commenters close enough to campaigns to know if it is realistic to expect this level of "neutral" internal tracking?
On Zogby:
1) It's Halloween. Think that might skew the results.
2) He must not poll west coast people - this polling would have to be done by 6 PM PDT
You mean the same Zogby poll that's currently got Obama +7? You also want to bet that that's leaked unweighted data or something equally stupid.
thinkingman
"those" internal polls are fake
Off to the wilderness for 8-16 years, pubs.
There is a dark side to one-party politics. People get greedy and they get corrupt. Yeah, it's going to take one hell of a long time for the republicans to be a plausible, clean, reform people (which is one of a bunch of reasons why that part of McCain's message is falling on deaf ears), but it can happen way sooner than eight years from now.
So, the Zogby tracking tomorrow will be 48-47 McCain.
Real Joe said...
No/Oth 17.2%
independents
PPP's poll of independent voters:
State
Independents
Colorado
Obama 60-36
Michigan
Obama 53-40
Minnesota
Obama 55-37
New Mexico
Obama 66-28
Oregon
Obama 53-41
Florida must just be the total opposite of every other state huh Real Joe? Or perhaps PPP is clueless.
I think a better guess is McCain is way, way, way behind in Florida right now.
Really, what do you expect the McCain campaign to say? I'm sure they could internally generate one unweighted-for-party poll of IA or PA where if you took the MOE away from Obama's numbers and gave it to McCain, and made up some "Bradley Effect" number, then the race would be within a "couple" of points.
But at this point, they have to be fully aware that their chances are nearly zero, and are just trying to create an impression of drama so a few more Republicans will turn out to save a Senator/Representative or two from the Democratic landslide.
Keep an eye on the Survey USA polls in the key states. IIRC, they don't weight their sample by party, and provide a look at what the "raw" electorate looks like before pollsters start making assumptions. And they don't look like GOOD NEWS for John McCain in IA, OH, or PA.
WV: oushi. McFailn is going to need some band-aids for their oushis on Tuesday night.
Ok - I'm really confused. According to the Muhlenberg site, they've got obama in a 13 point lead on the 30th of Oct... Are the results that Nste's alluding to the 31/10 results??
darío said...
So, the Zogby tracking tomorrow will be 48-47 McCain.
+8 in 1 day
SUPER MCCAIN SURGE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Right Wing Conspiricist said
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
I usually call them Christians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Socialist_Movement_(UK)
Rich men like McCain should look to the eye of the needle.
You mean the same Zogby poll that's currently got Obama +7?
For some reason I thought Obama was only +3 in Zogby today. but yeah, LMFAO, Obama -8 in one day, suuuuuuuuure. Why would they even release that junk.
--Darío said...
So, the Zogby tracking tomorrow will be 48-47 McCain.--
The tracking poll gives a three day rolling total, so no, even if this is the result, they will not give it as such.
So, the Zogby tracking tomorrow will be 48-47 McCain.
No, it's a three day tracker. Obama will still be up +4 or +5.
it sounds like Drudge is claiming that just the last day of Zogby's 3 day rolling poll is up for McCain. Still sounds bizarre.
'ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
October 31, 2008 9:02 PM
Blogger John David said...
The post about Drudge having McCain winning 48-47 in one day polling from Zogby is not a joke.
==========================================
Yes it is, but not in the way the original poster intended.
JASON--
The general policy for releasing state polling info in those states that cross time zones is to wait until the entire state (i.e., the western-most region) has closed polls.
Indiana, specifically, will begin releasing its numbers at 7 p.m. EST. Same with a couple of other states (I want to say South Carolina and, maybe, Georgia?).
Other than that, most polls begin closing at 8 p.m. EST.
Ooh! I'm so looking forward to 4:00 Tuesday afternoon (I'm in California)!!
Frank Drackman said...
"Are Y'all O-Bama Hossein voters gonna burn down my trailer when Y'all lose Tuesday????"
Since Obama will win, can we just come do it this weekend? Where are you?
new thread
Darío said...
So, the Zogby tracking tomorrow will be 48-47 McCain.
No, It will be something like Obama +4 He's an attention whore playing with the numbers.
Basically everyone should be aware that all tracking polls taken tonight are competing with Halloween on a weekend night - a deadly combination in trying to reach a huge swath of people.
You are basically reaching an anti-social crowd. If Obama is tied in that group, he's way ahead overall.
But expect this to be a factor in all the trackers today.
Shout out to 538 on KO tonight about empty Mccain GOTV offices.
Hannity talking about Zogby coming out with a M+1 poll tomorrow.
Are you fucking kidding me?
WV: whessest. The sound Cheney will make on Tuesday as his heart finally gives out.
Zogby is a joke and a tool for getting involved with Drudge. Just about every national poll is showing movement towards Obama and all of sudden he's showing some kind of sea change to McCain in his polling? He's going to be embarrassed on election day.
bobnsj said...
it sounds like Drudge is claiming that just the last day of Zogby's 3 day rolling poll is up for McCain. Still sounds bizarre.
'ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
October 31, 2008 9:10 PM
===============================================
Sounds like he thought it was April Fool's instead of Halloween.
Was there a time when Obama wasn't being walloped among NASCAR voters?
Zogby is the Bill Kristol of polling. Always wrong.
Zogby sample is not from tonight. Its from yesterday night and some today afternoon.
One thing that is bothering me is the obsession with Drudge that even democrats and Obama-supporters have. He is a fuc*ing tool and should be ignored.
Personal voting update from North Carolina:
I voted today in Orange County (home of UNC-Chapel Hill). They post updated Early Voting totals at the polling places. At the end of the day yesterday, more than 60% of 2004's total votes had been cast. The line today was long, and there is another day of voting tomorrow. I think there's a strong possibility that Orange County could reach 80% of its 2004 totals before election day proper.
While Orange County is comparatively small (just under 125,000 total pop), it was NC's 9th largest "voting county" in 2004, providing almost 2% of the state's total votes. It was also a county that voted 67/33 Kerry/Bush, whereas the state as a whole went to Bush by almost 13%.
This is a clear example of the Obama ground game in action. This is "the base," and it is turning out overwhelming to vote early. Most of the people that I've talked to are scheduled to work at least one shift for the Obama campaign during the next four days.
Another, stronger proof of Obama voting devotion: I had to go to the DMV today to update my drivers license, because I didn't want that to be an obstacle when I went in to vote (I didn't really expect anyone here to be that rigid, but just in case). I was shocked by the unusually long wait, and wondering why the place was so slammed with people getting licenses on a Friday afternoon, especially since ordinarily you'd figure they would just come back another day with shorter waits. Then I went to vote, and saw a number of those same people in line at the Early Voting place. Ah-ha! They were also getting their licenses (or renewing, changing addresses, whatever) so that they could vote!
Seriously, I cannot imagine anyone but Obama inspiring the kind of commitment it takes to wait in line forever at the DMV, just so you can then go and wait in line to vote. Four more days, y'all. :-)
Will you all ignore Zogby and Drudge........ Concentrate on the state polls. THese national polls are meaningless at this stage.
Hotline has a similar small sample size and has had a couple of days that were wildly divergent in the past causing odd fluctuations (the current stability on Hotline is actually creepy). I really have no idea what could realistically cause that dramatic a one day swing so I'll go with my instincts and say he's either making it up or got an off sample.
What is idiotic is his cherry picking his own polls-selling a small one day sample to get the rightwingers praising him. He only breaks out the one days when they are good for McCain.
Nate,
You really shouldn't include Elon in NC's polls since they don't even ask the candidate's name.
They ask a generic ballot, "Which party do you prefer win the Presidency"?
So, it's basically a useless poll.
Blogger Right Wing Conspiricist said...
I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
I could be wrong, but I believe Nixon was for universal health care, and I think Roosevelt introduced us to progressive taxation. Teddy Roosevelt.
winniechili said...
Was there a time when Obama wasn't being walloped among NASCAR voters?
Yeah, but John Zogby is a useless pollster. Don't put it past pollsters to make up polls to try to make more money in the future. I'm not saying Zogby's doing it, I'm just saying don't trust one outlier.
Drudge loves to find those outliers and put them in a big flashing red headline.
"What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicine?".
Christian.
Has anyone else see the latest "poll" on Drudge with McCain sporting a 48-47 lead in a Zogby poll? Wtf?
I'd love to see what the electoral map would look like with ALL traditional likely voter models and none of these expanded models adjusted for youth turnout and party affiliation. You wrote a few months back that the party ID self-affiliation gap was closing after the Palin appointment and talked about the shy Tory effect.
All this talk about lack of youth turnout has me thinking that this will be just another election where young voters underperform.
Would that be a lot of work?
The Zogby M+1 tracker has to be trash - his unholy alliance with Drudge is wearing thin.
Far from being a POLL SHOCK: MCCAIN UP BY 1 IN BREAKING ZOGBY POLL..., it's basically statistical noise and Our Man Nate will surely have it debunked soon.
If it's just an attempt to drive the "MCCAIN SURGE!!!1" meme, it's too late. Friday evening? Heh. It'll be forgotten on Monday, at which time it's REALLY too late.
4th and long...
wv: disti. Heh.
Well I'd not be surprised with Mr. Zogby's results. Had you read all Nate's "Primer on Tracking Polls" of early this month, you'd see the several weaknesses and few strengths of the Zogby tracking poll.
If Nate has taught me anything, it's to look at what is NOT said. The Zogby poll is a three day rolling average method, not a one day poll. The SLUDGE REPORT post doesn't mention the final result, just the "one day" result.
Won't you guys ever learn from the SLUDGE REPORT? That rag will do anything to help the McCain Palin campaign?
"I'd love to see what the electoral map would look like with ALL traditional likely voter models and none of these expanded models adjusted for youth turnout and party affiliation. You wrote a few months back that the party ID self-affiliation gap was closing after the Palin appointment and talked about the shy Tory effect."
Look at the Rasmussen tracker. It's LV - they don't reveal their LV screen, but it's probably pretty traditional; they weight by Party ID dynamically - they showed the Dems Party ID gap close from +9 in June to +4 in September; and they don't survey cell phones, which probably has the effect of under-sampling young Obama supporters.
With all of that, Obama's held steady at 50-52%, and Rasmussen has Obama leading in states worth 313 Electoral Votes (with 65 tossups).
At this point, turnout models, the youth vote, and the size of the Party ID gap are going to determine the size of Obama's victory margin, not determine the winner of the election.
What do you call someone who supports sharing the wealth and socialized medicine?
A Christian...something the religious right knows absolutely nothing about.
McCain's people can't even spell their "hero general" right. Got a RNC fundraising letter today, dated "Tuesday Morning".
That by itself is funny: Tuesday Morning is an overstock store chain, and incidentally, located adjacent to it in our Golden, Colorado strip mall the Obama campaign's third Golden office space opens tomorrow morning for the final push, having outgrown two other spaces.
Anywaste:
McCain's letter says: ... to ensure that our nation builds on the success we have achieved in Iraq under the leadership of General David Petreaus...
Sorry, but considering moveon.org is also maligned in this letter the only alternate spelling to the correct one (PETRAEUS) I accept is BETRAYUS.
SHOCK: NATIONAL REVIEW ENDORSES MCCAIN...
Great News!!!
wv: hymiss. almost sounds obscene.
NC early vote totals through 10/30 are as follows: Total voted 2,077,000 or 33% of registered voters in the state. Party breakdown: Dem. 52.6; Rep. 29.6; unaf. 17.8. Compared to 2004: Dem 48.6; Rep 37.4 and unaf 14.1. Early voting will continue through Saturday. The state elections board has allowed counties to expand Saturday hours until 5:00pm. All large counties have done so.
I fully admit to having lousy math skills by Friday evening. Just how does 4 days until the evening of Nov 4th come to 98 hours until BO is confirmed as the President elect?
Alaska and Hawaii have given the big networks a lot of trouble over anouncing the national winner before their polls close - at least covering the majority of the states. AK is 1 hr behind PT.
I suspect the youth are procrastinating. The ones in school may be counting on the idea that they can legitimately skip class on 11/4.
John David. Count me among the not enamored with Rachel Maddow liberals. She has done a bunch of stuff like this and every time I quit listening to her for a couple of months. Ok, she's better than Alan but I wouldn't turn that channel on if someone paid the cable bill.
axidomin. Can I use that for Scrabble?
"The Morning Call lead has now contracted 5 points in just two days."
It was 54-41,53-43,52-44 the last 3 nights.
"MCAIN LEADS IN FLORIDA EARLY VOTING!!"
source: http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20081029/BREAKINGNEWS/81029048/1006/news01
It's a flawed, old poll thought.
mc9cain said...
Lorne Michaels of SNL has NOT donated a penny to Obama. But he has donated $2,300 to John McCain and a bunch to Chris Dodd and $2,300 to Al Franken.
http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/neighbors.php?type=name&lname=Michaels&fname=Lorne
Your source is incorrect.
Lorne Michaels donated the full $4,600 to Barack Obama this year. (source)
Yes, he did donate $2,300 to McCain's primary run and $4,600 to Dodd's primary and general election ... in early 2007.
Really, who can fault the guy for donating to McCain then? That was back when McCain seemed like the only Republican with a conscience, character, honesty, and so forth. Not the cheap right-wing shill he's made himself into today.
Seriously, you should check things more thoroughly before tossing this sort of statement around. You don't want to make a caphrema (WV) out of yourself. =)
Drudge's purpose in flashing these one-day polling results is just to cause all the liberal handwringers who read polling websites like this to go into panic fits.
And it's working like a charm, right on schedule.
Jeez, people. Relax. We should be thrilled that the Right is glomming onto ZOGBY, of all people, for their hopes and dreams. And to a freakin' ONE-DAY poll result, at that. That's all they got. NOBODY CARES except them. And you, apparently.
"Contrary to Rick Davis’s assertions". Ha-ha, Nate. You should start every sentence with that.
I agree with Dmitry ... An Obama loses PA, wins election percentage would be nice, Nate.
The only reason Rethugs are putting all their eggs in the PA basket is because they are one of the few battleground states that don't have early voting. I think other polls in states like OH, VA and CO are getting better LV numbers because of early voters. McCain is desperate that PA will save his bacon by going so negative that he can create apathy among PA voters.
We should all change our identities to «first name» the «dream job».
WV = «lityl» which I've actually had before (it was in my cache).
Zogby poll moving 9 pts in less than 24 hours is too odd, it is not believable.
Yesterday he had Obama leading by 8.
May
Drudge links to the YouTube clip of Arnold at a Columbus, OH rally mocking the skinniness of Barack's arms. legs, and ideas. He then gives a good speech comparing the USA to socialist Europe. Too bad for JM that Arnold was not constitutionally eligible to be McCain's running mate.
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
The already have rerported in Florida that youth vote is not showing up like they expected in early voting.
There's a youth vote in FL?!
Maybe during Spring Break, but ATM it's just 70 year-old snow birds ;-)
So the "youth vote" would be, what, 50-year-olds?
Remember how Karl Rove had his "own numbers" in 2006 that predicted the GOP would hold both Houses? McCain's PA hopes sound as likely. Even back in June, Joe Scarborough said, "Republicans always say they can win NJ & PA, and they NEVER do!"
Even though the 538 model predicts McCain winning GA 91% of the time, I think black turnout in early voting is going to flip the state to Obama, which also means that Saxby Chambliss loses as well. That would sweet revenge for Bush's disgusting treatment of Max Cleland in 2002.
People like Drudge, Limbaugh, Kristol make a living telling right wingnuts exactly what they want to hear. It's a coward's way to make a living, but lucrative nonetheless. I'd imagine that they themselves don't believe their own hype. But they keep spewing it cuz it pays the bills and then some.
WV: scras. Obama is kicking McCain's scras!
If Senator Obama wins this election, the following is what it has taken to get a very questionable, extremely inexperienced, very junior first time Senator past the mark:
1. Senator Obama’s campaign is outspending the Senator McCain’s campaign 4 to 1 or more in some locations. This is due to Senator Obama backing out of an agreement he made with Senator McCain.
2. Senator Obama’s campaign has opened up about 700 offices nation-wide versus less than 100 than Senator McCain’s campaign has opened up.
3. The mainstream media has been completely biased against Senator McCain.
4. Biased organizations, such as ACORN, have received contributions from Senator Obama, have been openly supporting Senator Obama, and are under investigation for committing voter registration fraud in multiple states favoring Senator Obama.
5 An enormous number of biased celebrities have been supporting Senator Obama and speaking out against Senator McCain.
6. Even though Congress is very unpopular, both sides are controlled by the democrats and have been making biased statements against Senator McCain.
7. Senator McCain is disadvantaged because of the unpopularity of the incumbent President.
8. All four of the debate moderators lean to the left and were not 100% fair.
Even with all of the biased and unfair things mentioned above that are running against Senator McCain, Senator Obama only has a narrow lead. Should he not be way out in front? I have heard people state that on the news from both campaigns. That should tell you something. Also, Senator Obama pulled a cheap shot on Senator McCain and the American public in regards to campaign financing. Both campaigns agreed to use public financing during the presidential campaign. At the last moment, Senator Obama backed out of his agreement and took private financing, giving Senator Obama a significant advantage over Senator McCain in financing his campaign. In addition, Senator Obama is not being totally open as to where all his contributions are coming from. But even though Senator Obama took a sucker punch and tricked Senator McCain and all Americans by backing out of his agreement, Senator McCain is keeping with his word and using public financing. This is severely disadvantaging Senator McCain’s campaign financing by putting much lower caps on the amount of money he will have available. This is the reason Senator Obama can outspend Senator McCain 4 to 1. This also shows that Senator Obama does not keep his campaign promises, just like his past campaign promises.
Just imagine what it will be like when you have both the House of Representatives and the Senate controlled by the democrats, and Senator Obama in the Whitehouse signing everything that comes across his desk from them. In other words, the person writing the check will also be the one cashing it. There will be no “checks and balances”, especially if the democrats pick up a few more seats in the Senate and it becomes filibuster-proof, which means they will have a monopoly. Again, there will be no checks and balances. We will have higher taxes, more government, and fewer rights. They have already promised all of those things. You will have a government that will tax the people that are creating the jobs so they can “spread the wealth around”. Who do you think creates the jobs in this country? Have you ever seen a business owned by a poor person? Are they the ones starting small businesses and creating jobs? Obviously not! So we have established the fact that the people that own the small businesses and create the jobs are NOT the poor. So lets talk about what is going to happen when they start taxing the people that do own the small businesses that create the jobs.
So what do you think will happen when they start taxing the small business owners? First, jobs will be lost. They will not be able to afford to keep the same amount of people they have now – they will have to let people go. In addition, they will not be able to expand their businesses and hire more people. The second thing that will happen is that prices will go up. Do you think businesses will not raise the cost of their products and services to offset the extra taxes they have to pay? This should be obvious. The prices will go up on everything and will affect everybody – to include the middle class and the poor. When you go to the grocery store, the food prices will be higher. When you go buy a car, the prices will be higher. When you go to the department store the prices are going to be higher. Put yourself in the shoes of a business owner; if your expenses go up, would you not raise the price of your products to pay for them? Of course you would! And taxes are an expense.
Now lets talk about presidential qualifications. When a federal employee or a member of the military has a need to have access to classified materials, they would need to get a security clearance. A security clearance attempts to certify that an individual is of high moral character and does not pose a security risk. If a federal employee or a member of the military admits to using a dangerous drug, such as cocaine, they will not be eligible for a security clearance. In addition, an admitted cocaine user would not be able to get in the military and if he or she is a federal employee, he or she would be moved to a position of lesser responsibility and not have access to classified materials. Senator Obama has admitted to using cocaine in his book that he wrote. As a candidate for president, should he not be held up to the same standards of a federal employee or a member of our military? As President, he is going to be exposed to an enormous amount of classified materials, have his finger on the nuke button, and be the commander in chief of the strongest military in the world. Would you not want someone in that position that can qualify for a security clearance?
Another point I would like to make is in regards to Senator Obama’s experience, which is a drop in the bucket compared to Senator McCain’s. With the world and the economy in such a delicate position, I cannot imagine why anyone would not want the most experienced person in the Whitehouse. Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, and even Senator Obama’s running mate, Senator Joe Biden, have made statements to the fact that Senator Obama is not experienced enough to be President and that the presidency is not the type of job for on-the-job training. They also said that Senator McCain brings a lifetime of experience to the table. Senator Obama’s running mate, Senator Biden, even said he would even be honored to run “with” his friend John McCain. These individuals are now claiming that they said that during the primaries when they were running against Senator Obama. Does that mean they were lying then, or now? Senator Obama claimed that he had more diverse foreign policy experience because he lived overseas as a kid. Living overseas does not give you foreign policy experience, unless you are an Ambassador, which he was not. If it did, then Senator John McCain would again best Senator Obama’s record since he has lived overseas being a member of the military.
What issue or issues are you going to base your voting decision on? Will it be the economy? National defense? Education? There are so many out there. Because of the current economic situation, a large number of you are going to base your decision on who is best for the economy. I would hope that I have answered this question for you earlier on in this article. Such as pointing out which candidate has promised to raise taxes and spend more reducing jobs and raising the cost to live. But just in case I have not, I have a couple additional items for you to think about. If you look at all of the campaign promises on Senator Obama’s web site, you will see hundreds of them. How is he going to pay for them? I think I answered that already. But, if you add of the costs of all of them, mathematically it is going to cost us a lot more than he will be able to raise in taxes. So many of these are going to be just like so many of his previous campaign promises – they won’t get done. Maybe the economy is not the best issue to use in making a decision for president. What about national defense? In my opinion, if you don’t have a secure nation, the rest of the issues are moot. With Russia and China outspending us two fold to build up their military; with Iran and North Korea toying around with nukes and making threats; with Russia making friends and conducting military exercises not too far from our back door in Venezuela; with Russia helping Iran build nuclear processing material plants; and with the terrorist threat growing in Pakistan (a nuclear country), Afghanistan, Africa, and several other countries throughout the world, I want the most experienced and tested person in that office. Not some junior Senator that has absolutely no experience in national security. The economy is important, but national defense is a must. Remember, if our country is not secure, then the economy means nothing, our freedom is in jeopardy, and our lives as we know them today could easily be drastically changed in a moments notice. Just ask the citizens of the country of Georgia. One last point: Have you see who is openly supporting Senator Obama in the news? Iran and the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah have made public statements that they would prefer Sen. Obama to win. Go figure.
So after reading this, where do you stand? The differences in these two candidates are very apparent. On one hand, you have an individual with many years of applicable “real world” experience, has been a public servant and leader for about 50 years, has a proven record to reduce taxes and government spending, and is dedicated to growing the US economy and jobs. On the other hand, you have an individual with very little experience, questionable associations, has a proven record to increase taxes, government spending, and earmarks, and has promised to increase taxes and government spending. As I said at the beginning of this article, I cannot imagine why anyone in their right mind, after doing a real comparison of the two candidates, would vote for Senator Obama. I admit, he presents himself well and has a good appearance, as long as he has a teleprompter to read from. So the bottom line is what do you want in the next president, appearance or substance?
I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene (sic)?
What do you call someone who can't spell or use a spell-checker?
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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^^ very nice
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菲
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酒店經紀人,
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酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
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酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
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專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
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酒店經紀人,
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酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
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菲
梵,
酒店經紀人,
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酒店經紀,
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酒店經紀人,
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禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
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專業酒店經紀,
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酒店小姐兼職,
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菲
梵,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
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制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
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酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
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禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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