Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope?
Perhaps it is. But that speaks as much to McCain's problems elsewhere on the map as any success he has had in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania does seem to be narrowing a bit: the Muhlenberg / Morning Call tracker is now down to "only" a 10-point lead for Senator Obama, while a Strategic Vision poll puts the race at O +5. Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year, so our model treats that result as the equivalent of a +7 or a +8. Nevertheless, with little progress being made elsewhere, McCain will take what he can get.
Indeed, unlike other recent days, there is no good news for McCain in the national tracking polls. McCain gained a point in the Rasmussen tracker; the other seven all moved toward Obama, although by mere fractions of a point in the cases of Zogby and IBD/TIPP.
McCain’s most severe problems, however, remain at the state level:
As we alluded to this morning, the numbers from PPP out of Colorado and New Mexico, which used very large, list-based samples, are awful news for McCain in states where majorities of the electorate have already voted. Contrary to Rick Davis’s assertions, there is absolutely no reason to conclude that McCain is competitive in Iowa, and there is a slew of evidence that Obama is on track to win New Hampshire, even if the UNH Tracking Poll is now coming a bit off its outlier-ish numbers. Ohio is another big problem for McCain. Except for the Strategic Vision poll, everything else we’ve added to the database over the past several days shows Obama with leads ranging from 3 points to 16 (though the latter result, from Ohio University, looks very much like an outlier). In North Carolina, which seemed to be tightening last week, Obama now appears to be holding on to a very small lead, and much of that state has voted too.
So given this morass, Pennsylvania seems to be the one thing that McCain has to hang his hat on. But he remains very unlikely to win it, and even if he does, Obama has any number of firewall states that could preserve a victory for him. McCain’s win percentage is down to 2.8 percent, his lowest number of the year.
10.31.2008
Today's Polls, 10/31
@ 8:41 PM
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The Obama campaign is amazing! Just when you think they are going into “coast” mode, they shift into higher gear and step on the gas even harder. The campaign has begun advertising in AZ now and I know that’s gotta piss ol’ grampy McSame off big time! I’d love to see him lose his own state. Talk about icing on the cake!
So, it looks like FL, GA, NC, VA, SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, MO, TN, KY, OK, AR, WV, OH, IN, KS, NE, AZ, CO, NV, and UT are all must-win states for McCain. And then he has to win at least 5/6 of: ID, ND, SD, MT, WY, AK in order to reach 270.
Unless, that is, he can make a comeback in some state where he’s currently behind 9+ points. (Or if I’m incapable of adding correctly).
North Dakota! North Dakota!
RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWR
wv- 'grandome' Where the presidential inauguration will be held if Obama makes it and everyone wants to attend.
Ah, the polling update. I really don't see any way old Mac can win at this point.
Gnarly. Wonderful!
WV: McCain is getting his heneys kicked.
only 97.2 tonight?
I think that if your last hope is a state in which you're trailing by 10 points you should just throw in the towel, donate the rest of the money in your campaigns coffers to a deserving charity and call it an election.
Actually, no, I don't think that, democracy is more important that that, but, with defeat looming (hopefully) I would like to think that McCain could try something radical - like running an honorable campaign and trying to salvage something of his character.
Obama is going for humiliation by starting an ad campaign in AZ today. They've gotten those poll numbers before they went on TV there.
An Obama loses PA, wins election percentage would be nice, Nate.
Damn, will you be glad / sad when all this is over, Nate?
By-Bye to Wall Street!
If they call Georgia for Obama on Tuesday, you can stick a fork in this one. See you at the polls.
Great numbers. BTW, taking a tip from a poster on another site, I am off to pick up my copy of Khalidi's Iron Cage.
GN and hope Nate's trick didn't spoil the treat.
wow. I can't believe AZ is now a tossup in RCP
Yayyy!!!! :D Good polls :D
2.8%????
Holy shit!
Az is a toss-up now.
C'mon and fine-up the resolution on the EV histogram, Nate! Reduce the displayed limits to the region of non-zero outcomes!
Happy Halloween.
Awesome!!!
I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
McCain wins simulations?
When does Morning Call generally release its tracker and does anyone have the site on which they release it?
Losing with less than 4 days to go in all states...and having 2.8% chance of winning...IS GREAT NEWS!!!!FOR JOHN!!MCCAIN!!!!!!!!!!!
Poll Pool
I took all current 11 national polls in RCP (each of the two Gallups given half weight) and computed the results considering it one grand poll (all participants put together) which amounts to giving each poll a weight proportional to its number of participants (thus minimizing the overall MOE). RCP gives each poll the same weight regardless of the number of participants. Here are my results:
Number of participants: 13,105
Obama Percentage: 50.47% (MOE=0.87%)
McCain Percentage: 44.01% (MOE=0.87%)
Obama ahead of McCain by: 6.46% (MOE<1.75%)
The second line shows that Obama's margin above 50% is half way to being statistically significant, and the last line shows that his leading is a statistical certainty.
Nate, you seem to be even a bit kinder to McCain's chances in Pennsylvania than The Model, which seems to have cut his chances from an already pretty damn bleak 98 to 2 to an unbelievably bleak 99 to 1.
i still want PA to go to OBama.
mainly because i want mccain to look even nuttier for saying it was a toss up. i really cant stand mccain. i wish his rich wife would by a house on Mars.
Nate, thanks for keeping up the excellent work!
It's looking great for Obama. One last worry, though. So far we've all assumed that this election cycle is different because of the high turn-out of African American and young voters. The former seems correct, but what about the reports that young voters are not voting early and may stay home on election day as well? We've seen that in samples that underpoll young voters the margins get a lot tighter, so how confident can we be about the effectiveness (rather than the omnipresence or enthusiasm) Obama GOTV drive on campuses and the like?
John McCain at a 2.8% chance to win the election as of today? This is great news....for John McCain!!!
McCain surge??
Lorne Michaels is a cock.
@RWC..
President
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
"I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene"
... Mr President??
Nick, can you comment on the Iowa poll that apparently has Obama tied with McCain? Also, an Obama wins election while losing Pennsylvania percentage would be great, too.
According to those times the race will be called by 9:45 Tuesday night. By then Obama will have at least 286 EV's. Do it yourself, just fill in the states you think Obama will win and you will see what time the race ends.
New Hampshire is being polled so much, those are no longer inferential statistics...they are descriptive statistics!
Arizona would be an Obama state without McCain being from there. Arizonans probably really don't like the McCain they've seen in this campaign.
I think Obama can win it with a last 2nd blitz.
Is this now officially "dead girl" territory? I doubt that even being caught in bed with a live boy (of legal age) would do fatal damage at this point.
WV: persi - like the german detergent Persil - which we need to wash eight years of dirt and sleaze away.
"What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicine?".
People.
These polls are great news!!! For Barack Obama!!!
Wow, look how BLUE that map is!
On this day, 4 days before the election, in 2004, George Bush led John Kerry 49.3% to 46.4%.
For Final results, please see presidential inauguration, January 2005
At this point out from Election day, John Kerry never led in any tracking poll whatsoever
(53) days since the Fundamental Shift towards McCain/Palin as described by PeteKent
You 'Cons should be getting really nervous!
Congratulations to President Barack HUSSEIN Obama Jr. Get used to saying it, rethugs.
(emphasis placed on middle name to spite race-mongerers who tried to use it politically)
Cowardly Trolltards MIA:
Midpoint Man
Oz Johnny
Greg
Jack Black
CTPEM
CTSTW
(4) days left until the McCain concession speech.
Obama is going for humiliation by starting an ad campaign in AZ today.
I don't think the motive is humiliation. I think he has more money than he knows what to do with, so why not throw it at every state where there's even a small chance of victory?
I'm sure he and his team also have "mandate" on their minds. I mean a REAL mandate, not the one Bush/Cheney claimed after their squeaker in '04. Obama's ability to govern will be greatly enhanced by an electoral landslide.
Oh, and kudos to the first several posters in this thread for saying something substantive.
Drudge developing....
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7.
RWC said
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
----------------------
very sensible.
Tim,
I agree. CNN (i think) said yesterday that the youth vote in Florida is actually LOWER this year than in '04. WTH?!?! I wish Nate would do a piece about it.
It doesn't look like the IBD/TIPP tracker is entered as a tracking poll! This makes the weight of the poll too high! It is a small sample poorly executed tracking poll and does not deserve a weight of 1.13. I think the model is treating it like a once off poll
@RWC...
Admirable
I was at one of the Obama offices in Northern Virginia today, making calls. There is no letup in the effort and enthusiasm. Noone is taking anything for granted. Let's keep up the effort!
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
October 31, 2008 7:52 PM
Answer: I call that person a Christian
North Dakota and Indiana have gone Republican 16 of the last 17 presidential elections (1964 the Dem year).
(hympro = organist)
dmitry said...
An Obama loses PA, wins election percentage would be nice, Nate.
Given that the model has Obama winning PA 99 percent of the time there wouldn't be a heck of a lot of data there ...
sdf,
Nate and his model might be having a Friday Night Fight!
Why isn't AZ and GA a shade of pink?? The early voting and recent polls seem like McCain is losing control and he has no money or GOTV in those states to get it UNDER CONTROL in the next 3 days. I bet The Model agrees with me Nate. :)
BEN
as far as I can tell, the paper posts the next day's results online in the wee hours of the 'morning'
@ http://www.mcall.com/
as a graphic called 'Obama/McCain Tracker which is usually at or near the bottom of their front page
once the date at the top of the page changes, the graphic is updated
so check it now, the graphic is currently at the bottom left with 53-43
it was updated early this morning [like at 1 am] and does not seem to show up on the college web site tracker page until later for some strange reason...
@ http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/
I hear the message of the "Chicken Little" Democrats about being very guarded, that anything can happen, etc. I agree that we have to work hard for the next four days, GOTV, can win this thing. No complacency; it's not over. But I love the confidence that the GA,ND,AZ ad buy shows. It's the sign of a campaign that is confident it has a winning national message. It's not about humiliation (after all GWB didn't hesitate from campaigning in TN in 2000); it's about winning anywhere you can.
This is the message to the nation, the media, the youth, and the DLC. The 50-state strategy fears nothing. McCain was already robocalling in AZ before Obama announced the ad buy.Even if he doesn't stop in AZ, he's showing that the entire election will be fought in 13 red states (AZ,NV,NM,CO,ND,MO,IA,IN,OH,NC,VA,FL,GA) and 2 blue state (PA,NH).
I LIKE THOSE ODDS.
John Cleese was FUNNY on Countdown with Keith O.
Its not a perfect match dmitry, but McCain loses Oh/Fl/Pa wins election is at 0% You would have to imagine that Florida and Ohio are more likely wins (at least judging by history) for McCain than Penn. I would say it is at roughly 0% at the moment as well.
John Cleese on Countdown:
If Rove were a Democrat, we'd be seeing ads telling us hpw McCain palled around with Communists for 5 years as a young man, and they even paid for his food and lodgings. Can we really trust him?
OK, time to start thinking about the logistics of watching the returns come in on Election Day.
Indiana: Its results will be a great barometer for the rest of the country's. Most of the state's polls close at 6 EST, but Lake County and SW Indiana's close at 7 EST. Will the networks start showing the Indiana results at 6, or will they hold off til 7?
AK and OK polls look pretty good for McCain, still. With the influential Wasilla Weekly endorsement yesterday, McCain / Palin should be feeling pretty good going into the weekend.
Happy Halloween! Obama 396!!!!
Bummer about Kentucky. It was sweet while it lasted.
Nate,
You seem to have made a mistake on the weighting you give the IBD-TIPP poll.
This is a tracking poll of 897 voters spread over 5 days, so the incremental daily sample is only 179 (= 897/5). Such a small sample size should only get a very small weighting. (My guess is something like ~0.35, based on comparison with other polls.)
Right now you have it weighted at 1.13.
It doesn't look like the IBD/TIPP tracker is entered as a tracking poll! This makes the weight of the poll too high! It is a small sample poorly executed tracking poll and does not deserve a weight of 1.13. I think the model is treating it like a once off poll
Yes, it appears it is. This is new too. Last night, he properly had the sample size as 871/5 with a weight of 0.33.
That's got to be dragging down the numbers a little bit.
NC_Voter: I don't know if other commenters tell you this enough, but your dependable, daily posts on the Today's Polls feature always bring a big smile to my face. I'm gonna miss them after next week.
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
Mr. President.
I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
Seriously...you can't even spell medicine correctly? Go back to grade school and get back with me.
Yes, there is no doubt that the IBD weight is off. THere is no way it should be weighted more than Gallup!
NATE!!! Please address
mc9cain,
In all fairness, given us lefties like to remind McCain he hasn't lead in PA for a long time, McCain hasn't lost a poll in AZ or GA for a long time. (well judging by that Senate 2010 poll earlier today in Presidential election at least thats true!) So in fairness red is probably about right now. But both are within reach, given a good night for Dems.
Or, if you'd rather, John McCain's hero.
Nate, is it intended that the model still assumes a tightening at the end of the election? It's just 3 more days of polling. Isn't one whole point a bit much?
Funny story about that, harietemwelsh. I was inspired by a GOP troll who used to do the same thing over the summer when Obama was leading (and kerry was at that time in 2004)
Like Obama, I just took their strategy and made it better :)
In case anyone missed this little nugget about the close race in AZ...
from the R2000 poll released today:
"If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?
McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53
Janet Napolitano is Arizona's governor, currently serving her second term. Her favorability rating of 67-29 is higher than Palin's, which is 65-35 in a poll we'll be releasing in a few hours. Napolitano's job approval rating of 69-21 similarly beats Palin's 61-37. Palin may be giving the Rick Lowrys of the world starbursts, but Napolitano is wowing them with competent governance, and it looks like Arizonans wouldn't mind sending her to Washington instead of McCain."
@ http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893
@CA Hawkeye:
That's Mr. President :)
Can I just tell you guys how good it feels to get out there and volunteer for Obama. Wow! 4 more days of work and we're there. Be a part of history, not just a spectator! Volunteer today!!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/statepages
Why are Montana and North Dakota still solid red on the map? Plenty of polls have put them within striking distance.
Shouldn't the national poll tracker be coming closer and closer towards the daily averages? Nate has Obama winning the popular vote by 6.7 if the election were today but only 5.7 on Nov 4, just 3 days from now.
Shouldn't the difference grow to 0?
On a similar note, will Nate have a final write up on Monday or Tuesday?
Won't pollsters be interviewing people on Monday and so releasing numbers on Tuesday?
Shouldn't we punch in the final figures right before the first states close polls and start releasing data?
"What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?"
I call that a person who loves justice and right.
WV: infines. On a scale of 1 to 10, how unqualified is Palin?
Regarding advertising "overkill":
A key goal to any good advertising campaign is education. The point being to arm your customers with even more information about your product, whatever it is. And a good ad can do that, if it's crafted right.
Considering that Obama stands on the grounds that education is important, it stands to reason he'd take every opportunity to turn every extra cent into the presentation of information.
After all, an important part of leading people through something like an economic depression is to tell them what they can do to help themselves, for instance.
Obama is back up to a 31% chance in NE 2!
I think that would be fun. A split state!
Right-Wing Conspricist: "What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?"
A Rockefeller Republican. Next question.
"What do you call someone who supports 'sharing the wealth' and socialized medicene?"
Dyslexic.
A Rockefeller Republican
----------------------
Do they actually exist anymore?
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
The President, Prime Minister, or Chancellor of a civilized nation. Thanks for asking!
Lorne Michaels of SNL has NOT donated a penny to Obama. But he has donated $2,300 to John McCain and a bunch to Chris Dodd and $2,300 to Al Franken.
http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/neighbors.php?type=name&lname=Michaels&fname=Lorne
John McCain voted for the nationalization of U.S. banks (Marx called for the nationalization of firms).
Sarah Palin increased taxes on oil companies and gave money to her constituents (just like proclaimed Socialist Hugo Chavez does in Venezuela).
Using a very misguided definition of socialism that conservatives like RWC are parroting, both tickets are full of socialists.
On another note: The Obama ad buys in Arizona plus the 30 minute ad last night will be worth a 1 to 2 point bump in Arizona. Factor in an Arizona Republican party in disarray and energized Obama supporters, and I think McCain's going to be owned in the state he's currently representing.
Guys,
Let's not get cocky. I donated $48 more today and will phone bank 4-6 hours this weekend, Monday, and Tuesday before work and during lunch. Knock on doors for him, make calls for him, knock on doors for you, make calls for you, knock on doors for us, make calls for us, this election is about us, we must win, we must . . .
YES WE CAN!!!!!!!!!!!!
--Joe the Intellectual
--Joe the American
--Joe the Citizen
and, unlike that other Joe, my real name actually is Joe.
Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope?
Nah, Lorne Michaels is McCain's last, best hope.
For years I've been hearing what a knob this guy is, thinking surely he can't be as bad as they're saying. But now, FUCK, this guy really is a knob.
McCain-Palin, socialist ticket.
Hey, this is great news for my...TUMMY! Maybe it will settle down now that the polls are FANTASTIC tonight for BAMA!!!
I wouldn't worry too much about Nate messing up the weighting of one poll - it's Friday night, Halloween no less - I say we give Nate the night off to enjoy himself, he can fix it tomorrow (:
Hey, this is great news for my...TUMMY! Maybe it will settle down now that the polls are FANTASTIC tonight for BAMA!!!
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
You call it civilization.
"Joseph said...
and, unlike that other Joe, my real name actually is Joe."
Are YOU real joe?!?!?!?
My favorite headline from today:
"Obama Drops Reporters From Plane"
Jeepers! I hope they had parachutes!
Why do Neo-Cons hate grammar?
We godless North Carolinians are apparently seeing the light: Obama as saviour!
In all seriousness, despite my location in Greensboro, NC (a bit more left-leaning than a vast majority of the state), NC is becoming safer and safer for Obama. Other than the AA voters and young voters without landlines that aren't fully (or at all) represented in polls, I wager dollars to Krispy Kreme Hot-N-Now that a bastion of young, highly educated, cell-phone-only voters (like myself) have not been polled or are underrepresented, adding yet another dynamic of worry to McCain's "Damn Near Absent" ground game here in NC. I turn on the TV, and for every one RNC or McCain commercial, there are, literally, ten DNC, Hagan, Brad Miller, or Obama ads. This is anecdotal, but I have heard that practically all of Guilford county's votes have been cast: a county with six brick-and-mortar colleges and universities, a smattering of high-tech companies and working-class firms, and a lot of service industries packed with people who bleed Carolina Blue in elections. Guilford county also holds upwards of 5% of the state's registered voters, the lion's share Democrat.
Word verification:
WINGLESS. As in, McCain's campaign hopes are plummeting since they are wingless.
Now I can raise havoc before Day of the McCa- I mean, Day of the Dead.
I am doing canvassing in Raleigh NC area tomorrow and will report in on what I find out. The early voting numbers are incredibly positive. At the last minute, there are some McCain signs in my neighborhood popping up but a few Obama signs...and this is a VERY conservative neighborhood generally. Looking forward to moving once the housing market frees up again. Given the early statistics on voting, the Republicans will have to dominate on election day.
Proper grammar is elitist and intellectual. Therefore it is of the Devil.
Jason said...
OK, time to start thinking about the logistics of watching the returns come in on Election Day.
Indiana: Its results will be a great barometer for the rest of the country's. Most of the state's polls close at 6 EST, but Lake County and SW Indiana's close at 7 EST. Will the networks start showing the Indiana results at 6, or will they hold off til 7?
Given the clusterfsck that occurred with Florida in the 2000 election, when the networks started calling the state when polls in the panhandle (which is on Central Time) were still open, this isn't gonna happen with Indiana. Every network is going to be extra super careful.
Todd,
Unless the weight on the IBD poll is fixed it's impact will linger. It doesn't have to be fixed now, but Nate should fix it when e does the next run tomorrow
re: the last thread, I think PPP does include Ron Paul in its polling, so a tie in Montana would be sweet but not super-sweet.
[Jousnole: the molecularly energetic love child of the joule and the mole.]
Why do Neo-Cons hate grammar?
STOP BEING SO ELITIST!!!
"Contrary to Rick Davis’s assertions, there is absolutely no reason to conclude that McCain is competitive in Iowa".
Politico.com claimed today that the Obama people also think that Iowa is closer than the public polls show. Any real sign of that? Which brings me to another question: What to make of "internal polling" to which the campaigns sometimes refer? Is there any reason to believe they are more reliable than public polls? Or are "internal polls" just a myth fed to journalists?
PA is trending McCain's way.
Get ready for the biggest upset in history, libs.
WATCH FOR THE BRADLEY EFFECT!
I asked on another thread whether anyone had first had experience with the McCain ground game. Didn't see anything.
So I looked at their websites to see what events were around.
At a 25 mile radius, around me (Massachusetts), 486 events Obama, 10 McCain.
Deep Ohio, 2 McCain (!!!!) and 92 Obama.
Richmond, VA - also 50:1.
I know this is anecdotal, unscientific, etc, etc, etc.
But WOW.
"Right Wing Conspiricist said...
PA is trending McCain's way"
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA HEEE HEEE HAAAAA HEE HAAAAAAA
Tim:
"We've seen that in samples that underpoll young voters the margins get a lot tighter, so how confident can we be about the effectiveness (rather than the omnipresence or enthusiasm) Obama GOTV drive on campuses and the like?"
I teach at a community college in NC and my students are very enthusiastic about voting. While part of it (in my classes at least) is that I am offering extra credit for showing me their "I voted" stickers, they discuss the election during group work or before class more than a mere few points extra credit calls for. They also tell me that their other instructors are also giving extra credit for voting. I see lots of other students on campus with their stickers.
I have a young child and work full time, so I have no time for canvassing or making phone calls this year. Offering extra credit to my students who, according to demographics, ought to favor Obama, is my own little effort to GOTV. Most of them have already voted and showed me their stickers (which I am initialing so they can't all show me the same sticker).
darío said...
Drudge developing....
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7.
Where, in Oklahoma?
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7.
Geez, you're up to making up Drudge stories?!
The already have rerported in Florida that youth vote is not showing up like they expected in early voting.
Pennsylvania is tightening.
Get ready libs. ITS DOWN TO THE WIRE!!
anybody think obama's numbers in PA got suppressed a bit because of the philly's in the world series? I'm thinking so.
I wonder what the final voter turnout is going to be. It is said to be the highest turnout in decades. 65% or more maybe?
PA is trending McCain's way.
At the rate he's going, he might be ahead by Festivus.
"WATCH FOR THE BRADLEY EFFECT!"
So you're saying that racism is John McCain's last best hope?
Total turnout will be 1,284,732
beek:
Politico.com claimed today that...
And?
How leaky has the Obama campaign been? How leaky to Politico, which aspires to be a slightly more respectable, less blatantly wingnutty Drudge?
wv: mitici -- The last political family with ethics like McCain/Palin
RWC the Trollburger say:
"PA is trending McCain's way."
By that, do you mean: "Obama will win by so much that McCain will have to win?"
I don't think elections are won or fought with post-structural or deconstructionist theory in mind. If anything, there might be a Bea Arthur effect: people secretly voting Obama for fear of having someone akin to Abe Simpson running the show.
wv: Gesoutg. Damned if I know, but it's GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!
woops
128,473,219
The youth vote isn't showing up in Florida like they said it would in early voting.
Signs of things to come?
As McCain's pollster said: downscale, rural, gun owning older less educated whites ("bitter" people who "cling to guns and religion") will show up in droves to let everyone know what they think of the elite media and the Palin Persecution and the MSM smearing of Joe the Plummer.
Matt - I know, I'm guessing Nate was quickly doing the update before heading out the door and he'll fix it soooooooon (tm)
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
The already have rerported in Florida that youth vote is not showing up like they expected in early voting.
Pennsylvania is tightening.
Get ready libs. ITS DOWN TO THE WIRE!!
Sure it is. Such seems to be the meme that the right is pushing these days, apparently trying to soften the blow. Novak "predicts" O 286, M 252. This map is a little optimistic but not as much as the Bill O'Reilly map, in that it gives PA, CO, VA, and NM but takes away FL, NC, and OH.
And he still thinks Mc can pull it out.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267
Yes, it's TIGHTENING!!!! DOWN TO THE WIRE!!!!111!!
wv: couthe. Opposite of uncouth?
smearing of Joe the Plummer.
Sounds like a fun game kids can play.
Just because it makes me so happy, here are the updated early in-house (not absentee) votes for Cleveland OH:
Total: 43,212
Dems: 25,975
Ind: 9,178
R: 896
"New": 7,163
@Grizz! said...
You are correct, sir.
And I will say it with pride...
Mister President Barack Hussein Obama!!!
Now let's GOTV!
GOBAMA!!!
Go Comunity Organizers!!!
There might not be much data for what happens when McCain wins PA, but the % win for Obama in that case would still be useful. Think of it as ammunition for the GOTV folks. If we can argue that Obama needs to win PA because otherwise his chances drop to X%, maybe it will get more of the vote out.
Please give us this number, Nate! Pretty please!
Jason -
Networks will report raw vote totals as they are tallied in split time zone states. They might even give some hints from the exit polls. They will not call until all polls close in a state.
Folks, let's see if you can follow me on this one. 7.4% more democrats than Republicans have voted in early voting. A poll says McCain leads early voting in Florida by 4%. In every poll on the PPP link in every state, Obama leads on Republ;icans voting for him vs Dems voting for McCain. Obama also leads in every state in Independents. NOrth carolina is the only exception I know of in the country where more dems always vote Pub than vice-versa. It seems completely impossible that McCain could be ahead in early voting in Florida. So, what am I missing. The poll is dated 10/29.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/29/mccain-up-in-florida-early-voting-poll.php
This "joke" has already been made, I'm sure, but I'm too busy to check.
Do McCain/Palin celebrate Halloween? My guess is no. I mean, think about it. People going out, buying candy, and then giving it to children? That's REDISTRIBUTING WEALTH!!! Damn socialists.
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7.
In the reality-based community I personally refer to as FReeptard U.S.A, they are currently rejoicing at those fantastic poll numbers. I shit you not.
MCAIN LEADS IN FLORIDA EARLY VOTING!!
A sign of things to come??
We youth love to procrastinate. Don't worry, we will be up on the
4th. Just be prepared for an astronomical turnout among the youth and the U.S. as a whole.
Think Obama will give a "thank you" card to George W. Bush at the inauguration ceremony?
WV: darecull
In the reality-based community I personally refer to as FReeptard U.S.A, they are currently rejoicing at those fantastic poll numbers. I shit you not.
I don't even see it on the site.
"Just be prepared for an astronomical turnout among the youth "
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
They say that every year, moonbat!
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
Well,
"Alaska -- we're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."
so I guess that would be ... Sarah Palin, loser?
Obama has been sooo much better than his opponents.
Here's hoping he's as effective a president as he is a candidate.
sdf said...
dmitry said...
An Obama loses PA, wins election percentage would be nice, Nate.
Given that the model has Obama winning PA 99 percent of the time there wouldn't be a heck of a lot of data there ...
2000 PA is 3.8% bluer than country
2004 PA is 5.0% bluer than country
2008 PA is 3.9% bluer than country
(2008 # referecnes poll data)
Obama has led in 35 out of 35 polls in Pennsylvania conducted over the last 5 weeks from 17 polling organizations.
I'm a math guru. That's my specialty. If I was putting fair odds on McCain's chances in Pennsylvania, not betting odds, where I'd have to play bookie, but fair odds, I'd say about 5000 to 1.
In addition to being absolutely hilarious, I think O's ad push into MT, GA, and AZ is the simplest, most effective and most elegant way to say: My internal polling's better than your internal polling. THIS is what "virtually tied" looks like.
I saw Hagan's response to the "Godless" ad tonight. It was pitch-perfect. She even quoted the ten commandments: "We should be helping people find jobs, not bearing false witness against a fellow Christian." Game over for Dole. She's going to lose ugly. Tim Kaine in Virginia had a similar firm, calm, fair response when Republicans tried to paint him as soft on the death penalty. Worked like a charm.
The opposite tactic--Obama's refusal to counterpunch Republican attacks--is also looking brilliant now. Reminds me of Muhammad Ali using the rope-a-dope to wear out George Foreman. Look for McCain, like Foreman, to emerge in a year as a really nice guy. Maybe he'll even sell grills on TV.
Omaha and North Dakota are looking like possibilities for Obama. It would be nice to win a Plains state and a Deep South state like Georgia just so Barack could say it was a nationwide campaign.
benalize: Don't worry Republicans, we won't benalize you too much for being bad losers.
"MCAIN LEADS IN FLORIDA EARLY VOTING!!
A sign of things to come??"
Source please.
I give you this: "Up to today, Democrats have a 242,000-voter lead over Republicans in overall balloting, the state Democratic Party said."
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/dcblog/2008/10/florida_early_voters_at_record.html
Seriously, listen to me, I've said this countless times: McCain is not winning Pennsylvania. Nope. Not going to happen. Sorry. Stop now.
Elizabeth Dole rode her husband's coattails to a job she never wanted in the first place. Good riddance.
In the reality-based community I personally refer to as FReeptard U.S.A, they are currently rejoicing at those fantastic poll numbers. I shit you not.
They're celebrating fake numbers?
MCAIN LEADS IN FLORIDA EARLY VOTING!!
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1855049,00.html?imw=Y
"But so far this year, early-voting Democrats are outnumbering Republicans at those sites by more than 20 percentage points, and a WSVN–Suffolk University poll has Barack Obama leading over John McCain 60% to 40% among early voters. "
A sign of things to come??
Indeed.
Man, it just keeps going. =)
What I'm most looking forward to is the post-mortem on the polls after the final results are in. Here are the characteristics that I think will turn out to be winners:
(1) Probabilistic likely voter screens (e.g. a person can count as a fraction of a vote, depending on how likely they seem to be as a voter) will be more accurate than than binary (vote, no vote) or tiered screens.
(2) Cell phone samples, as much trouble as they are, are growing increasingly necessary as information technology continues to evolve.
(3) Longer call-back windows are apparently very important for catching Obama voters on the phone; not sure why, but PPP reported that they tend to get a lot more McCain respondents on day one, and it becomes more and more Obama-skewed as time passes.
(4) Finally -- and I'm hesitant to say this, but I think it's true -- I think we need to stop weighting for party ID. However, this is on the condition that they do use much more extensive stratified sampling, using weighting for known demographic details and oversampling for smaller groups -- anything less than 100 in a major subsample (say, young voters) is just too small. In my opinion, rigorous stratified sampling, with weighting and oversampling when necessary, will be stable enough that it will be unnecessary to weight by party ID.
Thoughts?
Republicans have committed voter fraud before to "fix" elections, don't get your hopes up until Nov. 5th.
Until then, GOBAMA!
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
I want all you libs, leftists, moonbats, and socialists to answer me this:
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
uh... mr. president>
Tracking Nate's Swing State Win%s
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1031.html
October 23-31: FL NC MO OH IN NV
Spreadsheet and bar chart graphic:
http://wallingconsulting.blogspot.com/2008/10/swing-state-wins-oct-31.html
"Just be prepared for an astronomical turnout among the youth and the U.S. as a whole."
Reality check:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx
I was so happy to see the Gallup numbers go up for Obama today in all 3 categories.
Could it be due to his 30-minute ad that showed he's a normal, quite intelligent fellow and not the scary boogeyman McCain & Co. are making him out to be?
MCAIN LEADS IN FLORIDA EARLY VOTING!!
He might be leading the line to the early bird dinner specials at Bob Evans, but not in the polls.
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7.
In the reality-based community I personally refer to as FReeptard U.S.A, they are currently rejoicing at those fantastic poll numbers. I shit you not.
Ummmm...Dario made it up. I shit you not.
Early voting in Florida
Florida^
(in-person & absentee returned) 3,360,088
2008 2004
Dem 45.6% 40.7%
Rep 38.2% 43.5%
No/Oth 16.2% 15.8%
Ballot
Absentee 41.5%
In-person 58.5%
= 44.0% of total in 2004 7,640,319
This is kind of a big deal.
What happened to the medical records Sarah Palin was supposed to release last Friday? Did they not have enough time to change some information?
Ummmm...Dario made it up. I shit you not.
I knew I wasn't missing something. I actually gave that site a few hits trying to look for it. Damn, foiled again.
Youth turnout was historically near the highest level as a percentage of the youth population in 2004. I do believe the numbers were also pretty damn good for the mid-term election in 2006. The primaries were extroardinarily high. Every single person I've heard pooh-pahing the youth early vote numbers hasn't actually reffered to any numbers or made it clear if it was compared to total votes cast at the end or with 2004 early voting.
Maybe the increase in youth vote will be less visible because of the increase in other demographics but as a percentage of eligible citizens it should be higher than history. It might dissapear under AA and sporadic older voters showing up as a percentage of the electorate.
" Darío said...
Drudge developing....
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7."
What are you doing, man? I just checked drudge, and I don't see anything like this. And I can't imagine the data is even in on any of these, let alone run, being that it is 6:42pm Pacific time as I write this.
2008 2004
Rep 38.2% 43.5%
Ok, I'll say it.
MCCAIN SURGE!!!!!!
What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
Uh... Teddy Roosevelt standing next to Harry Truman?
Now if you want a stone-cold government-ownership-over-the-means-of-production Communist, I'd have to go with George W. Bush's Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Or perhaps 90% of the American public, if unemployment shoots past 20% over the next two years, like I'm afraid it might.
aphooki: When you skip your honors class to drive people to the polls.
Blogger Right Wing Conspiricist said...
MCAIN LEADS IN FLORIDA EARLY VOTING!!
I demand sauce on this or it didn't happen
what is this being reported that the demographis that has been early voting in Nevada is the same in 2004 and that Pennyslvania GOP absentee ballots is leading dems. Reported by the McCain camp.
Based on current early voting stats on CNN it looks like McCain will have to pull off Super tsunami numbers in North Carolina. CNN has Obama up by over 20%. So if there is 1 million votes left in NC McCain would have to win over 600 000 of them and keep Obama below 400 000. Based on current polling it seems like that is a really tall order for anyone
verification flutp
In 98 hours time, Barack Obama will be declared President-Elect of the United States of America.
98 hours and counting...
Buckeye said...
What happened to the medical records Sarah Palin was supposed to release last Friday? Did they not have enough time to change some information?
Might Bristol be pregnant with baby #2? hint, hint.
darío said...
Drudge developing....
Zogby tomorrow: McCain by 2.
Rasmussen: McCain by 3.
Gallup Traditional: McCain by 7.
McCain Surge !!
Everybody come back on election night for the "surprise"
Conservative columnist George Will throwing McBush and Palin under the bus is EXCELLENT NEWS for John McCain!!!
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-oped1031willoct31,0,3579456.story
According to this, early Florida voters are 45.6%D, 38.2%R, 16.2%I. Louisiana early vote: 58.5%D, 28.4%R, 13.1%I. West Virginia 59.4%D, 31.5%R, 9.2%Other.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Are these all registered Democrats who always vote Republican? i.e. Reagan/Bush Democrats likely to vote McCain? Or is this an Obamaquake that isn't reflected in the polls?
In the words of Right Wing Conspiricist:
Get ready libs. ITS [sic] DOWN TO THE WIRE!!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Widens-Some-All-Bases.aspx
A 51-43 Obama lead among traditional likely voters is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
This is the same daily tracker that Drudge screamed about in bright red letters, by the way.
wv: cophonal. What you hear when multiple neocons scream at the same time on Election Night.
I think this is what RWC is talking about..
VIDEO: McCain strategist say Pennsylvania gap has closed
Buckeye said...
what is this being reported that the demographis that has been early voting in Nevada is the same in 2004 and that Pennyslvania GOP absentee ballots is leading dems. Reported by the McCain camp.
Here's Nevada:
500,339 early votes 2008 = 60.2% of total votes in 2004 831,563
Clark County (Vegas) 347,491 early votes = 63.5% of 2004 total 546,858
Dem 52.5%
Rep 30.4%
No/Oth 17.2%
Washoe County (Reno) 2008 early vote 90,638 = 56.8% of 2004 total 159,511
Dem 47.8%
Rep 35.0%
No/Oth 17.2%
Obama is massacring McCain in Nevada. His lead is insurmountable there. 85% of the Nevada population is in either Las Vegas or Reno.
Conservative columnist George Will throwing McBush and Palin under the bus is EXCELLENT NEWS for John McCain!!!
My favorite recent Will article was when he referred to Sarah Palin as Sancho Panza.
I would like to know where the "McCain surge" is supposed to happen. If McCain claims he's going to win PA, Obama can just as plausibly say that he's going to win KY, MS and LA. For all of these states we have recent polls showing McCain with single-digit leads.
I continue to think that Nate's model is significantly inflating McCain's chances. Charlie Cook, who is a very astute political observer, said on David Gregory's show that if McCain wins that Cook will be bagging groceries or flipping burgers in a couple of months. Stuart Rothenberg said that the race was effectively over yesterday. The top political analysts don't see this as race in which McCain has a 1 in 30 or even a 1 in 50 chance to win. McCain would need a ridiculously unlikely set of events in order to win. It's possible, sure, but it isn't a 2.7% chance either.
Voice of Reason said...
According to this, early Florida voters are 45.6%D, 38.2%R, 16.2%I. Louisiana early vote: 58.5%D, 28.4%R, 13.1%I. West Virginia 59.4%D, 31.5%R, 9.2%Other.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Are these all registered Democrats who always vote Republican? i.e. Reagan/Bush Democrats likely to vote McCain? Or is this an Obamaquake that isn't reflected in the polls?
West Virginia has lots of Dems that vote Pub for Prez. Louisiana hasn't had extremely high turnut as a % of the 2004 vote. Florida, however, looks very concerning for the Republicans.
Are these all registered Democrats who always vote Republican? i.e. Reagan/Bush Democrats likely to vote McCain? Or is this an Obamaquake that isn't reflected in the polls?
Wasserman-Schulz was just on Rachel Maddow and said it looks as though about 25% of FL Dem early votes are sporadic voters.
I believe McCain has about a 1 in 1000 chance of winning.
I really really don't want to lose PA.
I don't want to lose PA!
Yes...I can see how McCain can win PA with Obama scoring:
53
49
53
47
53
52
53
53
53
55
52
53
Am I the only one to notice, that even if the race "tightens" (i.e. EVERY undecided goes to McCain) Obama is consistently over the 50% mark. So...Race close or not. Obama isn't going to lose PA.
>> What do you call someone who supports "sharing the wealth" and socialized medicene?
Come Nov 4th Mr. President-elect. ((Unless you are referring to John McCain, but I'm not sure if he's much for socialized medicine... spreading the wealth though he's definitely on record for))
I can't wait for Palin to realize that a community organizer has the kickass GOTV organization while she and the old jerk have none.
Clark County (Vegas) 347,491 early votes = 63.5% of 2004 total 546,858
Dem 52.5%
Rep 30.4%
No/Oth 17.2%
17% of them didn't vote for president or voted third party?
http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html
TIGHTENING!!!
McCAIN SURGE!!!
A dead heat in Louisiana is GREAT NEWS!!! For ... oh, forget it.
Hey Nate....just for giggles, can you give us the odds of:
"Obama loses PA and wins the election"
17% of them didn't vote for president or voted third party?
No, that's voter party affiliation, not who they voted for.
eric said...
I believe McCain has about a 1 in 1000 chance of winning.
so you guys getting ready to PARTY ?
Rachel Maddow seriously needs to end her chicken little act.
She lets the McCain pollster spin like mad about early voting and then doesn't bother to analyze the actual data. It pisses me off.
Every time you post with poor grammar and spelling, a pollster is bludgeoned in a dark alley with a vintage Katherine Harris for Senate yard sign.
Just thought you should know. FL will go BLUE for Obama/Biden!
~FL PUMA.
WV: arashora - McCain's new swear word for Palin.
McCain is going to be behind on early voting in virtually every state that has early voting.
He needs his supporters to turn out on election day, or he could lose big.
No/Oth 17.2%
independents
from drudge
ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING
What people need to realize is that John McCain "fighting for PA" coupled with a TEN POINT DEFICIT in PA equals a loss in PA. Just because John McCain says something is so doesn't mean that it is.
dmitry said...
"An Obama loses PA, wins election percentage would be nice, Nate."
It is basically the same as the 6.45% (8 of 124) for Obama loses OH/FL/PA as there are only 1% of scenarios that PA is lost anyway. (We have to assume he is rounding down, of course, cuz 1.24 > 1 )
Even if there 149 scenarios of losing PA and McCain won all of those extra 25 scenarios (not likely), he'd have (8 of 149) 5.36% chance.
So, the bounds are 5.36 to 6.45 % chance of Obama winning if he loses PA using Silver's model.
I love David Brooks.
He predicted a 7, 8 or 9 pt Obama victory on McNeil Lehrer tonight.
Off to the wilderness for 8-16 years, pubs.
(slatophe?)
Folks, the Drudge post is a joke.
so you guys getting ready to PARTY ?
I'll be in Grant Park with Obama election night and it's going to be like the end of "jedi" after they blew up the death star and the fireworks are going off.
For real Zogby, for real? Are they TRYING to come off as a giant joke?
yiannis said...
from drudge
ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING
5...4...3...2...1
here comes the Obama Concer Trolls
LOL
As per Drudge:
Zogby Friday 1-day:
M: 48
O: 47
Really.
Here's the thing--the Repubs have been lying to create their own reality for so long, and it worked for so long, they're just stuck doing that and their mindless minions just believe it must be true.
We can't believe they'd keep trying that crap so we try to validate it. There is no validation. They're lying. WMD. Iraq=bin Laden. Mission Accomplished. Pennsylvania.
It's all the same. Stop it. Don't let them have any more of your energy.
An important question has just occurred to me:
How is the leadership of the KKK going to respond to the election of a non-white president?
They've got about 98 hours to think of something, some kind of response.
Are Y'all O-Bama Hossein voters gonna burn down my trailer when Y'all lose Tuesday????
Folks, the Drudge post is a joke.
YOUR post was, but it does say 48-47 in one night polling now. LOL
Zogby wasn't giving Drudge enough love.
The post about Drudge having McCain winning 48-47 in one day polling from Zogby is not a joke.
Not a huge deal either. We'll wait for the better tracking polls to weigh in tomorrow.
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