Another day, another good set of polling for Barack Obama -- with one important exception:
Nevada looks good for Obama. New Hampshire looks really good for him -- and that was one of those states where we hadn't shown much bounce for him before. Yet another North Carolina poll shows Obama ahead; for the first time, we now have him as a (very, very slight) favorite in the state. Obama seems to be gaining a point in that Morning Call tracking poll in Pennsylvania almost every single day. (EDIT: The Elon poll seems to be a poll of who would handle the economy the best -- not the horse race numbers. We will delete it with tomorrow's update).
But what's going on with Minnesota -- where SurveyUSA actually gives McCain a one-point lead?
The poll may be a mild outlier. SurveyUSA has generally shown more favorable numbers for John McCain in Minnesota than other agencies that have surveyed the state. But they aren't the only pollster to come up with numbers like this; Quinnipiac and the Star Tribune also show Minnesota close, although CNN and Rasmussen don't.
Markos Moulitsas has data on advertising expenditures that may explain the difference. Overall, in the week ended 9/30, Obama spent about 2.5x as much as John McCain on advertising. This is likely an underappreciated reason behind his recent polling surge. But in Minnesota, McCain outadvertised Obama better than 3:1. In fact, Minnesota was the only state in the entire country where McCain out-advertised Obama.
So McCain may literally have bought his way into a competitive race in Minnesota. It now rates as the 7th most important state in the election according to our tipping point metric, behind the traditional Big Three (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida), the New Two (Colorado, Virginia), and Michigan, which should probably now be scratched off the list.
It hasn't come cheaply, however, as McCain has now spent tens of millions of dollars on the state -- money that didn't go into Florida, or North Carolina, or Indiana, or Virginia, where Obama has had the advertising edge, and where the McCain campaign is now on its heels. Those are also resources that didn't go into Michigan, where McCain has withdrawn from.
So, yes, you can beat a state into submission if you really want to -- I mean, if Obama decided he really wanted to win South Dakota, he could probably do so. But whether it's been a good use of resources, we will have to see. In certain ways, this is starting to remind one a lot of the Herschel Walker trade. And Obama campaign is not exactly unready, leading McCain in field offices in Minnesota 28 to 9.
(n.b. The cool new chart we unveiled yesterday that includes national polls is on a hiatus for technical reasons, but will return tomorrow.)
10.03.2008
Today's Polls, 10/3
@ 8:05 PM
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693 comments
It seems that the race has stabilized with Obama + 6 or so.
thanks Nate
Ugh, somehow, half my post has been deleted.
I'm fairly sure McCain is banking on taking MN + either Ohio or Pennsylvania.
He can win with MN + Ohio or Penn as long as he defends NC and Florida.
second !
LOL
The inevitability of President Barack Obama came a lot earlier than I anticipated.
Of course, I didn't predict the credit crisis and the self immolating strategy of the McCain campaign.
Nate, you're giving that Minnesota poll too much credit, especially since it appears that the model is also using the western Minnesota internal to demolish Obama's scores here in the Dakotas. That's a lot of power for a clear outlier.
realistxxx it thrills me to hear you say that (and from a *realist* too)
So you're quite certain its over?
Ugh, what is wrong with people here? What happened to the blue state I grew up in? We've been conquered by Republican immigrants from other states!
This makes me so sad. I can't stand to see MN turn red like this.
The most disgusting part is that apparently, money still seems to determine who wins the election. We need campaign finance reform, badly.
Minnesota could use a visit from Barack. He hasn´t been there in a while. But I don´t really see it flipping because of the same-day registration. I´d guess that young voters are underrepresented in such states, because it´s especially easy to vote there, you only have to DO it (and I think that this time, young voters will actually turn out in big numbers).
How could McCain be getting closer in Minnesota while falling in Missouri and Michigan? With Obama's big leads in Iowa and Wisconsin, that poll makes no sense, especially with some recent polls in MN showing large Obama leads.
He can win with MN + Ohio or Penn as long as he defends NC and Florida.
Kerry - MN + IA + NM + CO is 263, so Obama would just need to flip Virginia in that case.
(Also, the quoted sentence, six or eight months ago, would have made about as much sense as a brick falling upwards.)
jakam, notice that Obama still has an 88% chance of winning MN.
My people will not fail us. Remember, they are the only state not to blame for Reagan.
Nate:
I have wondering about the difference in polling results between 2004 and 2008. Here's the daily results from electoral-vote.com:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html
Do you or anybody else have any theories on why the polls seem so much more erratic in 2004, or more stable this year?
Minnesota:
The poll is crazy. The internals have him barely winning the Twin Cities and barely winning those under 35. And it says McCain is winning on the economy. CRAZY!
It's a very educdated state. Plus they have same day registration.
Obama's internals must be confident. He hasn't campaigned there in ages. Was it last when he was en route to the DNC convention? Feel free to correct me.
Look at all the BLUE in these polls!
These polls are GREAT NEWS!!! For BARACK OBAMA!!!
Let the swiftboating commence
Palin, Pffotenhaur, Bounds - all repeated the "raise taxes 94 times, tax on those earning 42K today" and the media seems to have given up calling them on the lie
Fox ran all day with ACORN connection then the GOP (Grey Old Pigs) mailed the you tube around
It;s going to get real bad over the next thirty days :-(
I hope Obama continues to take the high road and do a full court press on the issues..I am so sick of negative, no solution, bullshit campaining.
Yes, despite the determined efforts of Mary Kiffmeyer to disenfranchise people, it is still relatively easy to register to vote here. Of course, I don't know how many actual polling locations are in low-income or non-white neighborhoods, or how long they have to wait in line, or when the polls close. And we aren't immune to squads of creeps dressed in military uniforms intimidating voters!
I remember a poll from Rasmussen in Montana with Obama up by 5.
This MN poll is the same. MN is for Obama like MT is for McCain.
Becky Sharp said...
realistxxx it thrills me to hear you say that (and from a *realist* too)
So you're quite certain its over?
-------------
Barring some unforeseen massive event (War, Terror, Depression) or huge Obama gaffe etc., yeah it's over.
Look at history. Pollster.com has a great article on how few voters change their minds in October.
The polls will likely tighten as we approach the election but with a5-6 point differential nationally, McCain defending 9 must win states and the Obama campaign's superior organization and ground game, a miracle is needed for McCain/Palin.
This is risky stuff, but I guess it is technically how they're *supposed* to play it.
Forcing the opponent to spend as much as possible without winning.
Right now it looks like republicans on right on the edge of victory in MN, and it looks like it is primarily due to ad buys.
So this is how it is *supposed* to go, but it is still a risk and it is still nerve racking.
seems like a little bit of a breathless overreaction to one surveyusa poll - Obama is leading more in Ohio than in Minnesota? Doubtful and as others have observed, yet more whacky survey usa internals...that said, it makes for a more interesting post by Nate than, Obama is schooling the fool everywhere, and the advertising discrepancy is pretty stark...
A few reasons I doubt this poll highly.
#1 - I live in Minnesota in the major metro area w/ about 3/4 of the state's population. Other than some small pockets in rich neighborhoods, there is NO visible sign of McCain support.
#2 - This site alone gave Obama a 92% chance in Minnesota before this poll and still an 88% after.
#3 - Intrade had Obama at 85% when this poll hit.
#4 - The previous poll with an end date only one day earlier had Obama up by 11.
#5 - EVERY SINGLE POLL since pollsters started polling this election cycle that has given McCain a lead in Minnesota has been, guess what, a SurveyUSA poll.
#6 - Minnesota hasn't gone to a Republican since '72.
#7 - The weighting of this poll is really messed up.
No way, there may be "some" tightening, but Obama would have to caught with a dead girl (or a live boy) to lose Minnesota.
Has anyone come across any early voting information in Ohio? It seems that if someone can build a good lead there it could have huge implications for November 4.
Typical, the Obama site has an interactive Google map of offices while the McCain site has a map(?) that doesn't even load.
Why do your popular vote numbers show 51.2% to 47.3%?
Isn't the average at 6-7% Obama lead?
The same SurveyUSA poll shows Coleman with a 10-point lead over Franken in the Minnesota Senate race--a much larger margin than any other recent poll.
From Nate's earlier report, it seems that GOTV is not doing so well for the Republican--probably a lack of enthusiasm on the part of the Christian Right. My guess is that the Republicans will save their powder, wait till the last week or two and then bombard like mad with Swift boating of the worst sort. Given what's in their arsenal, that's probably the only path they can take.
And after this election, Palin is toast, even in Alaska.
Dale Petrie, I hope you're right. We went for Kerry in 2004, and Bush sure is less popular now than he was then. Still, don't forget that Duluth has a high population too, and is socially conservative.
But the Twin Cities are, generally, Democratic places. Here's hoping!
Why do your popular vote numbers show 51.2% to 47.3%?
Isn't the average at 6-7% Obama lead?
If the election were held tomorrow, then yes, the PV numbers would be a 6% lead or thereabouts. This model is attempting to project what will happen when the election actually does happen a month from now, and assumes a bit of regression to the mean.
Bryan - good point.
Thx buddy.
Of course, with the early voting happening this year, the numbers are getting skewed. Does fivethirtyeight.com take the early voters into account?
The Elon poll is not a popular vote poll, it is a poll asking voters who will have a better hand at the economy.
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/100308.xhtml
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/10/3/122149/761/9#c9
The Elon poll is not a popular vote poll, it is a poll asking voters who will have a better hand at the economy.
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/100308.xhtml
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/10/3/122149/761/9#c9
It makes sense that they're making such a push into MN given that the McCain campaign now says it needs to win one of MN, WI, and PA.
And Nate - wisely spending advertising dollars on a potential swing state now counts as "beating a state into submission"? Give me a break. I don't blame you for partisanship in the analysis threads but so far you've been able to keep it pretty level for the polling threads. Let's try to keep it that way?
I have spent a good portion of my life in either Colorado or Minnesota and I have been involved in democratic events in both states. I am not that worried about the MN poll. Its almost certainly going blue. (MN voted for Mondale for gods sake.) Colorado, however, is much more of a toss up. I think the 84% odds on Obama there are much too generous.
Question: Is there a way to judge how "realistic" a given simulation result is? If the current polling holds up, you'd probably project Obama as a 90+% favorite to win on election day. That implies that McCain up to a 10% chance of winning. So the question is, how many of the "McCain Win" simulation runs are realistic outcomes? Are there any that we should throw out? Not that this should be done now, but it would make sense to do it immediately prior to the election when the polling data is stabler.
Dude,
It's bad enough that MN is even close, did you really have to rub it in by bringing up the Herschel Walker trade?
As a MN resident, I can definitely say that there has been little Obama television presence. McCain on the other hand seems to have ads running throughout prime-time.
However, in my visits to the Obama field offices, and some local events, the democratic base is well organized and galvanized.
In the twin cities area (not surprisingly) appears to be solidly democratic, yet as you move beyond the first ring suburbs McCain seems to be making inroads (or the demographics have continued to shift). Maybe it's all the hockey moms?
The same SurveyUSA poll shows Coleman with a 10-point lead over Franken in the Minnesota Senate race--a much larger margin than any other recent poll.
Yep, and that's the other clue that something is amiss.
Dick,
You said: "From Nate's earlier report, it seems that GOTV ..."
The On the Road Pieces are written and posted by Sean Quinn.
"Dale Petrie, I hope you're right. We went for Kerry in 2004, and Bush sure is less popular now than he was then. Still, don't forget that Duluth has a high population too, and is socially conservative."
Exactly. A Democrat needs a strong showing in generally solid DFL, but socially conservative, Iron Range. All of Obama's advertising has been in the Rochester market to reach Iowa. Im worried that the heavy McCain advertising with no Obma response could be giving McCain a chance. The Survey USA poll shows them basically tied in the Northeast. I hope the poll is an outlier but I don't know...
I'm surprised that raw advertising numbers can have such an profound effect. Is Nate serious when he things that Obama could just flood the airwaves in a deep red state and turn it blue.
My cynical side says yes but my brain says no.
I saw a spending chart at Kos about an hour ago. Obama is outspending McCain 2.5 to 1. The poster said the RNC is sitting on a ton of cash, whats the strategy? And the spending tells the story of MN. Obama is not spending on ads and McCain is spending a ton.
Anybody know what they are doing?(RNC)
Interesting little diddy about Minnesota. Maybe if Plouffe spends $40MM in Florida over the next month, he can buy it and we can all go home.
As for early voting in Ohio, I agree. If Obama really is up 6 or 8 points in Ohio right now, as he has been in two recent polls there, he could get out to a lead that would be hard to overcome. The state polling is really hard to decipher right now. You have mutliple polls in many different states that are 10 points apart in swing states. The internals look legit in the polls and you can't figure it. Ealry voting started in Viriginia recently too. Is Obama ahead 6 or 8 points like some polls say or behind 3 or 4 points lie others say. I suppose Nate's model is pretty good at trying to weight hem properly. RCP averages might be useful. Also look at the number polled in each poll. In Ohio for instance, Obama has about a 175 person-lead out of 5000 polled in the last week in Ohio, about 3.5%. He has about a 100 voter lead out of 3300 polled in Virginia in the last week, about 3.3%. If there are no obviously flawed internals within the polls, it's about as good as I can come up with for guessing the state of the races. Ground game, Bradley-Effect, Undecideds, Cell-Phones, newly registered, etc. are hard to guess and you can't see in internals. What's above is my best quick guesstimate. If he's ahead 3.5% in Ohio and 1/3 vote early, perhaps he'll have a decent cushion going into Nov. 4th. 1 or 2 points? Also, Georgia has like 40% of their early voters being Africna-American right now. Since there's an enthusiasm gap, perhaps a lot of OBama's voters will run to the polls early. This doesn't change the absolute number of folks voting, but it may help to get the mout early and focus on everyone else later.
Duluth is not particularly socially conservative -- St. Louis County as a whole voted 65 percent Kerry and Duluth was right in line with that average, maybe even a bit above if I recall. The weakest Dem areas in St. Louis County are the logging areas in the far north which were 75 percent Clinton in 1992 but since the enviro wars of the mid 1990s are overwhelmingly Republican -- the wedge issue the GoOPers use in this area is to frighten voters into thinking they're going to lose their motorboats and their logging rights, therefore their recreation and their livelihood.
Overall, the Coleman "10 point lead" ought to be a giveaway -- this poll is screwed up.
"Is Nate serious when he things that Obama could just flood the airwaves in a deep red state and turn it blue."
Of course not. Nate usually doesn't take these things personally but today's response to the MN poll sounds like a jealous little kid. "I could do that too if I really wanted to! Humph."
The economy is crushing the Bradley. My canvassing in Pa shows nothing else but jobs, healthcare on the map. They'd vote alQaeda if it guaranteed jobs.
The most beautiful poll I've seen this election. I love it.
I live in Minneapolis and I don't really know many McCain supporters. I don't know too many people who know McCain supporters. While I know I live in the middle of a VERY democratic district I still can't belive the MN poll numbers.
A few thoughts, somewhat random but I am still trying to figure this out:
1- there are almost NO non-whites in the poll. MN may be a whitish state but of 725 voters they only got 19 African Am.
2) The MN twins played a BIG game on the 1st day of the poll. I have no idea if that matters but it may have skewed the people who anwered their phones.
3) As many college grads favored Obama as McCain - sorry that does not make sense
4) The under 50 crowd favors McCain? This makes no sense and really makes me wonder about the folks they reached on the phone.
5)58% of the voters were in the Twin Cities, and the poll results for the Twin Cities was a virtual tie. This is INSANE. In the 2006 election (open race for US senate, Hennepin Cty (minneapolis) went 64%DFL (dem/farmer.labor) and Ramsey cty (St Paul went 66% DFL)
Ditto for the northeast and southern part of the state
http://www.sos.state.mn.us/home/index.asp?page=18&dc_id=2348 -
The last time MN went to a Republican was in 1972-although Mondale barely won the state in 1984. Coupled with the fact that WI, IA, and MI look good for Obama I just don't see McCain winning it.
David said...
"Is Nate serious when he things that Obama could just flood the airwaves in a deep red state and turn it blue."
Of course not. Nate usually doesn't take these things personally but today's response to the MN poll sounds like a jealous little kid. "I could do that too if I really wanted to! Humph."
Like it or not. This TV Ad binge can work. Obama was outspending MCCain in Virginia a few weeks ago 3:1. He went from polling down 5-10 points to up. Pennsylvania, McCain had been outspending Obama 3:2 and closed it to close to even a couple weeks ago. OBama is outspending MCCain in a big way in North Carolina and Indiana and look where the polls are. It can work. If the McCain camp is hoarding it's cash and going to go hog wild the last couple weeks, it might not be a bad idea.
I doubt that early voting will have a meaningful impact. Undecided voters don't vote early, so almost all early voters are people you would have gotten anyway. The big swings in poll #s are all undecided voters, and they're just not hitting the polling places yet so it doesn't matter what they think now. It only matters what they think on election day.
You libs don't learn, do you?
For years Bush has outsmarted and outwitted you at every turn.
Now, just as you think you are about to fly, McCain/Palin will come along and clip your wings.
"Is Nate serious when he thinks that Obama could just flood the airwaves in a deep red state and turn it blue."
Isn't it called North Carolina?
Somebody needs to tell the Obama campaign to stop ignoring MN.
On the McCain 42,000 tax lie, Obama or a 527 need to cut an ad explaining what happened [both McCain and Obama voted the same way -- against the tax] and urging voters "to call the McCain campaign and tell them to stop lying about Obama's record." The MSM simply won't do it.
The other thing about Minnesota is they hear Palin and think she must have recessive Minnesota genes -- she talks like she walked off the Fargo set. They fall for that crap.
She's got recessive genes alright.
All the people talk about the MN SurveyUSA poll.
I remember a SurveyUSA poll from Texas in January, McCain only by 1 from Obama.
If SurveyUSA poll now Texas and Obama is up by 1 what happen? A lot of people will say Texas is in play?.
Please, it´s only one poll.
If McCain win MN, he´ll win the election.
I'm in MN, I don't see McCain winning here.
In the sense of "put your money where your mouth is", see:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/
Note that, as of the end of July, Obama supporters have given more than twice as much in campaign contributions compared to McCain (and Obama tends to get more, smaller contributions).
MN will be blue
Interesting point about MN draining away McCain's advertising $ from other states including NC and FL. A friend in NC tells me that you can't turn on the TV there without seeing an Obama ad. She lives in the mountains and says that Obama is within striking distance in her county, which if true is pretty amazing.
you need to fight for MI
McCain can win MI
eric - "Like it or not. This TV Ad binge can work."
No one denies that advertising is effective. But the audience has to be receptive. You can't just go and splurge millions on South Dakota and expect everyone to change their mind. The fact that a lot of people don't want to recognize is that MN and WI are potential swing states. With all the talk of Obama's ability to flip traditional red states blue, like CO and possibly NC, no one likes to admit that McCain might be able to do the opposite.
I would not extrapolate Franklin's poor poll numbers to Obama.
Frankiln has run an awful campaign and Coleman has had KILLER ads against him. -
The whole campaign is a complete mud-sling and many people I know who would love to kick out Coleman are planning to vote or the independant candidate - don't forget we voted in Ventura here and the Ind senate candidate is a very credible person
Duluth is not socially conservative... I live there, I know. It is mixed but the balance is towards DFL/social liberal.
Hells bells the Iron Range was the birth place of American Communist party, and upper Lake Co had some of the highest % of Nader votes in the country in 2000.
The poll is whack, the internals are all messed up and it runs counter to every non SUSA State and Nation poll out there. A week ago CNN had MN +11 Obama, so until someone can show me a colaberating poll I will dismiss this as the gibberish it seems to be.
And please... if Obama wins VA, CO and NM he can lose MN, OH and FL and still win the election
"The other thing about Minnesota is they hear Palin and think she must have recessive Minnesota genes -- she talks like she walked off the Fargo set. They fall for that crap."
Well Palin's accent is quite a bit different than the northern MN accent, most Minnesotans sound nothing like the Fargo parody, and MN is one of the most educated states in the country, we don't "fall" for BS.
Geometry: The under-50 and college grad crowds are probably skewed by cell phone effect.
What is the Bradley effect? Something about gun control?
Jason Kerwin said...
I doubt that early voting will have a meaningful impact. Undecided voters don't vote early, so almost all early voters are people you would have gotten anyway. The big swings in poll #s are all undecided voters, and they're just not hitting the polling places yet so it doesn't matter what they think now. It only matters what they think on election day.
I don't completely agree. Ground game, newly registered voters, new African-American voters, youth are all big-time Obama advantages. Many, if not most of this new support needs to have as much opportunity as possible to vote as they may be voting for the first time. Early voting may yield the advatage Obama needs to win this thing.
dario - "If McCain win MN, he´ll win the election."
Well... that is essentially the idea... :-)
McCain has more chances in Oregon than Michigan.
Though it defies logic, I'm thinking that MN is closer than we've been imagining. I think its one of the few places where Palin is making a difference for a couple of reasons:
1. MN public schools is known as one of the best for special education, enough that many parents of special education students will move there to enroll their kids in MN schools. Palin's down syndrome baby creates some connection.
2. Palin's bizarre Alaskan accent is remarkably close to the upper Midwestern accent. Its not too crazy to imagine the subconscious mind being drawn to the person who sounds more like you.
3. The constant use of the "Hockey Mom" line should be self explanatory.
Considering these things, its not hard for me to see how MN is a close one.
I think the Obama campaign has at least as good a handle on what's going on in MN as you guys do and will do what it needs to do to bring it home
Who thinks this is Obama's high water mark?
Not whether he'll ultimately win or lose, but whether or not he'll go up or down from this point out?
MN was close in 2004 and Kerry won.
Was close in 2000 and Gore won.
Reagan lost MN, and now McCain can win MN?.
Please....
Looking at the Battleground States which polls close from 7-8pm ET.
Indiana
Virginia
North Carolina
Ohio
If Obama wins all 4 of those States. He gets 59ev plus VT(A Safe Obama state)which polls close at 7:00pm ET. 62ev.
We add the really safe Obama States.
CT 69ev
DC 72ev
DE 75ev
IL 96ev
MA 108
MD 118
ME 122
NJ 137
MI 154ev (McCain has conceded this state.
NY 185
RI 189
IA 196
CA 251
HI 255
OR 262
WA 273
Obama will go up if the McCain campaign does not fights back
"My cynical side says yes but my brain says no."
No offense, but if your brain doesn't represent your cynical side, you must not be very smart (at least when it comes to politics).
Okay, Barack's numbers on Intrade are rising so fast, I'm beginning to freak out. Don't get me wrong, I'm 1000% for him.
Obama can afford to shut the back door by investing in Minnesota now. Yeah, it's nice that they're playing offense in all these potential pick-ups, but they don't need all of them. It would be a shame to win Virginia or Colorado or something but then somehow lose because of a failure to play defense in a solid Kerry state.
It isn't a huge deal right now -- Obama can easily afford to lose Minnesota right now -- but if the race closes to two or three points, it's gonna be a really big deal.
-- Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin --
To say that Minnesota poll is a "mild outlier" is the understatement of the week. At best, it's this week's New Hampshire for McCoot.
Biden addresses his son's deployment ceremony
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/03/biden.deployment/?iref=mpstoryview
intrade is a joke
McCain now 29.2
WTF ???
If Mccain bought the election in Minnesota, then Obama bought the election in all the battleground states. Something to be really proud of, right?
Logic works both ways, Nate. Stop being a biased partisan hack.
Ellen, I totally agree with you on the need for public financing. I guess this means you'll be crossing over for Mccain, right? Obama lied about public financing.
Matt,
I think you may be running a bit high on the stereotyping.
"For years Bush has outsmarted and outwitted you at every turn."
Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
It's cool if you're a Republican. But at least be honest about who won those elections. It wasn't the chimp. And if convincing millions of evangelicals that gay marraige is more important than their 401k is an outsmarting tactic for you, then I'd hope you'd be embarrassed at your party.
"I think the Obama campaign has at least as good a handle on what's going on in MN as you guys do and will do what it needs to do to bring it home"
Agreed. He has Jeff Blodgett, Wellstone's former campaign director and a great organizer, running the state campaign. As long as the campaign is listening to him, I feel confident.
David,
God you guys are desperate. Your campaign hinges on MN, the most reliable Dem state in the last 30 years. A state where McCain has lead only 1 poll with questionble internals. Ofcourse I'd bet $1000 you never looked at the internals! Did you nitice a poll two days befor eshowd Obama +12. Even your boy Rasmussen last poll Had Obama+8. I love the desperation of uniques scenarios you must create to belive you havce a chance. Btw, Obama leads 6 of the 8 Swing states. Betted your hopes on MN is laughable at best!
Striatic:
I think this is Obama's high water mark only if McCain goes on an all out assault over Dems ties to the mortgage crisis. If McCain stands pat and minorly complains, like he is now, we'll be at Obama plus 10 after the debates. He has to get tough on the mortgage crisis right now or its over. This is part of the problem of a long term Senator running for President - no urgency because he's going back to the Senate.
Obama has less of that because he's only been in there for a few years and has always had higher aspirations.....its almost like he wants it more, or at least that's what I think a lot of people perceive at this point.
"Okay, Barack's numbers on Intrade are rising so fast, I'm beginning to freak out."
If you recall there was an "Obama will finish higher than McCain after Palin debate contract" up yesterday. I read the rules; it's based on the noon to midnight timeframe today. I'd suspect someone bought Obama heavily in that contract when it was at ~5% this morning and is now gaming it to win them all. Nothing fundamental happened to move things by more than a point or two.
David said...
eric - "Like it or not. This TV Ad binge can work."
No one denies that advertising is effective. But the audience has to be receptive. You can't just go and splurge millions on South Dakota and expect everyone to change their mind. The fact that a lot of people don't want to recognize is that MN and WI are potential swing states. With all the talk of Obama's ability to flip traditional red states blue, like CO and possibly NC, no one likes to admit that McCain might be able to do the opposite.
What McCain's people might have figured out is this. Plouffe, Axelrod, OBama, and company are fantastic counter-punchers. World-Champion counter-punchers even. But, sometimes they get hit first. The only way to stop it might be get the last punches in before the bell and before they can counter. In otherwords microtarget specific states for the last couple weeks of the campaign. Hoard money before then and go on a negative Ad blitzkrieg for the last two weeks of the campaign, without letting OBama counter. I'd guess Obama's camp can anticipate this, but I'm not sure strategically what they'd do about it. They'll probably have enough money to absorb it ith spending of their own.
DMitry, I would not vote for McCain if my life depended on it. He and Palin scare the crap out of me. They'll destroy this country even more than Bush has. I pay attention to McCain's Senate voting record, not his rhetoric. I know where he really stands, and he's lightyears away from my values.
bush lost MN to kerry 44.8 to 49.8, so .. 5 points.
McCain is outspending Obama 3:1, held his convention in the state and is only up by 1 point in a single poll with bizarre internals.
in some ways this demonstrates that even with massive financial advantage, convention + ads, McCain can still only manage to pull even in a funky poll.
also, i wonder how much ignorant democrats using the movie "fargo" to make fun of sarah palin has affected this situation?
Easy there Obama supporters worrying about MN. I would guess that the reason Obama isn't all over the airwaves is that there is no early voting, unlike OH, VA, GA and NC. (IN too?) Obama will be up in MN soon enough.
chi, how can you be 1000% for someone? Crazy liberals and their math...
ellen
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo..... :-(
dmitry said...
chi, how can you be 1000% for someone? Crazy liberals and their math...
100% right :D
liberal hippies are like that
>>chi, how can you be 1000% for someone? Crazy liberals and their math...
that was quite funny actually
QUICK:
Name the state : Fargo
step into reality
MN is blue
Ellen, you wrote "The most disgusting part is that apparently, money still seems to determine who wins the election. We need campaign finance reform, badly."
Obama's money is winning this election, and Mccain, not Obama, is the one who pushes and uses public financing. I guess you're voting for Obama based on other issues.
ND
And spending in Iowa is like dreaming of breaking rushing records then spending two years with the New Jersey Generals.
If Mccain bought the election in Minnesota, then Obama bought the election in all the battleground states. Something to be really proud of, right?
Logic works both ways, Nate. Stop being a biased partisan hack.
Where did Nate say it was a bad thing? It was an observation, not a judgment, dumbass.
dmitry, what makes you think I am a crazy liberal? You think everyone supporting Barack is a liberal? Ever heard about Republicans for Obama? I may be one, I may not.
catch you guys in the morning
i'm going out to dinner :-)
have a nice weekend
Name the state : Fargo
North Dakota.
Much of the movie takes place in MN, however.
Enjoy your dinner.
I'm sorry, I read of the "great job" the Obama Campaign is doing everywhere else, we need to see that here in Minnesota as well. Yes, McCain is all over the TV. MN would go Democratic with just a bit of a better campaing, I have seen nothing specially after the Republican Convention....I'm sure Obama can find another 10 EV easily somewhere else but for me they are just letting MN go. Very dissapointing....
intrade :
McCain now 34.0
shot up from 29
WOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOO !
chi, how can you be 1000% for someone? Crazy liberals and their math...
Easy: She's voting for candidate X. She's convinced 10 people to vote for candidate X
Silly conservative who failed math.
striatic said...
Name the state : Fargo
North Dakota.
i named it first ;-)
Nobody should NEED money to win an election. The reality right now is not good.
That doesn't mean that I'll automatically oppose Obama just because he apparently has more supporters. I'm not a knee-jerk fool. And frankly, the GOP propensity to disenfranchise people angers me vastly more than the finance situation.
I used to like McCain, but he's been replaced by his evil twin.
Geometry: Most of Fargo was set in MN.
mason, you retard, Nate smeared Mccain as buying the election in Minnesota, but failed to make the same observation about Obama doing so on a larger scale.
Nate's either an idiot or a biased partisan hack, and Nate's not an idiot. Whereas you are, you idiotic mason. Go back to smoking weed, hippie.
chi, you're not a Republican, or you would've said so. Nice try, though. You must be really confused about math and politics, judging by your comments.
Dimtery
Get out, moron. Nate said, "So McCain may literally have bought his way into a competitive race in Minnesota."
The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Good god, mason, that's not how math works. Check wikipedia out or something, retard. Silly idiot, no wonder you support Obama, you can't count how he's going to pay for his massive budget. I didn't fail math, you did.
Competitive race in Minnesota?
Please.....
100% * 1 = 1
1000% * 1 = 10.
Now who's talking?
Go back to your PS3.
Nate and the boys start doing shooters yet? My credit card stands humbly by to provide rounds...
;-)
jakam, notice that Obama still has an 88% chance of winning MN.
Yes, I see that MN only fell 4 from 92% to 88% due to its own poll. But I also see that ND fell 12 from 25% to 13%, presumably due to the "West MN" internal of the poll. If not a full poll, but a portion of a poll that is clearly an outlier can so drastically affect a neighboring state, the model seems a tad sensitive.
MN is 88-12.
Just picking on Survey USa a bit more:
18-34 years - Mccain 70/Obama 76??
You guys are wasting your time even responding to this dmitry guy.
The SUSA Minnesota poll makes no sense. It shows Obama hemorraghing support in the low teens among those under 50 while gaining in high single digits among those over 50. There is no reason to believe that is happening.
Exactly mason the retard, Nate smeared Mccain, but not Obama who is buying the election on a much greater scale. Nate's being a hypocrite, you're being a retard.
Note: Quoting Shakespeare doesn't impress anyone. Try some thinking for yourself and getting a math problem done right, retard. Also, the comparison is inadequate since neither Nate nor are I are ladies.
Quit the weed. Seriously. (:
dmitry, I can see reading comprehension is not your forte. Did I say I was or wasn't a Repub? Go back and read my comment, then read it some more.
Vote for the theological party.
No, mason, you can't have a 1000% as a level of support. The ceiling is 100%. Jesus, douchebag, why don't you argue about something you know about? Like which baby food brand is best, I dunno.
Dario - how's it going man?
Dmitry-You said this
Nate's either an idiot or a biased partisan hack, and Nate's not an idiot. Whereas you are, you idiotic mason. Go back to smoking weed, hippie.
Why rag on weed smoking hippies? Pretty hateful.
Lawyers of America like myself object :)
I still think the biggest news of the last 24 hours is the Michigan pullout.
As an aside, how hilarious are those "Obama finished?" Newsmax ads?
He can win with MN + Ohio or Penn as long as he defends NC and Florida.
Firstly, McCain is not likely to win any of MN, OH, PA, or FL. He may be able to hold NC, but maybe not. So the whole premise is flawed.
But if we assume McCain changes the game somehow and wins all of those states, he still loses unless he also wins NV, MO, and IN. If he loses one of those, he then needs VA. McCain is not looking too healthy in NV, though it certainly is a swing state. Out of all the states in this discussion it is far more likely that Obama wins every one than that McCain wins every one. Obama doesn't need every one, McCain does.
You might as well say McCain can win with CT + IL or MA.
dmitry, do you vote for the theological party o for the hippie party?
Dimitry - More sound and fury signifying nothing. A smear would have said, "McCain bought an election in MN, and that's a bad thing."
Someone is reading non-existent subtext.
Robert-
I view fools like this like a boxer views a speed bag.
chi, no one is being fooled by your pretense at mystery. You're not a Republican or you would've come out as one, since that would have been a better refutation.
I don´t understand your question Geoff.
Peter said...
"Is Nate serious when he thinks that Obama could just flood the airwaves in a deep red state and turn it blue."
Isn't it called North Carolina?
--------------
I thought they called it Indiana or Virginia... oh wait, maybe it was Colorado.
No, mason, you can't have a 1000% as a level of support. The ceiling is 100%. Jesus, douchebag, why don't you argue about something you know about? Like which baby food brand is best, I dunno.
Sure you can. 100% is my vote. 200% is my vote plus someone else I convinced. 300% is my vote plus two other people I convinced. And so on.
Perhaps you think that '%' means there is a ceiling of 100? You'd be wrong. Check out Zimbabwe's inflation rate.
This ought to make the conservatives happy:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/us/politics/04ayers.html?hp
Intrade is such a farce - not that we didn't already know that.
Today Obama shot to over 70 and McCain into the 20's. And as soon as the Noon to Midnight (their time) VP debate wager takes effect, Obama is back at 54 and McCain is at 35.6. Hilarious.
mason, someone can't read between the lines. I bet you get all your news from MSNBC and CNN.
You damn idiot, just cause you're too stupid to pick upsubtext doesn't mean others aren't. The only speed you have is the one you get high on, no doubt.
dario, i don't live in a swing state, so i'm not going to vote.
Dario, its slang in english i guess, how are things going for you?
NYT really put a story out on Ayers Ed? Shocking. An NYT reporter was snooping around about how Obama got the job as the Chair of the Board to distribute grants at Annenberg..big debate there if Ayers was involved.
But i think you love more the theological party than the hippie party or not?
Intrade simply doesn't have the volume to be an efficient market. A couple thousand dollars can move it significantly.
As a UGa alum still smarting from last Saturday, I wish you had left Herschel out of this.
That Minn poll gives me the popular victory / electoral loss willies.
Dim-itry-
I bet you hear voices, too.
I second that, shawn. I think the Intrade folks read this blog. The invisible hands are suddenly working the numbers...LOL.
Ok Geoff.
And welcome to the site.
mason, I wrote, "No, mason, you can't have a 1000% as a level of support. The ceiling is 100%."
Someone else's vote is not a measure of your support.
So don't distort my words and turn this into inflation rates, which don't have a ceiling.
Typical liberal smearing.
I'll cap off by quoting the rest of my post in the hope that you will be open to reason and stick to what you know best.
"Jesus, douchebag, why don't you argue about something you know about? Like which baby food brand is best, I dunno."
On the other hand, smearing seems to be what you're best at. (:
Which is kind of sad, since you're not very good at it.
Moose-speak is the new pig Latin with the lipstick thrown in.
Check out the Obama price on intrade. Just dropped 8%
I just want to know if anyone has any information about who is voting in Ohio (and how many). I can't find anything on the tubes about it.
It seems that same day registration/voting would really be a boon to the better organized candidate who could run up some pretty big numbers before November 4. If this is so, we may know with a reasonable degree of certainty who will win Ohio before the rest of us get to the ballots.
Moose-speak is secret neo-con coded language that Cheney will still be VP when Palin is in Office.
Play all the Palin speeches in reverse and hear Cheney speak.
OMFG... listening to a distilled version of Mooseburger talk shite for 5-10 minutes made my head hurt. I'm grateful the independents and undecideds showed good judgement by overwhelmingly declaring Biden the winner of the debate.
Anyone catch McCrypt Keeper's creepy laugh today? I don't have the stomach to post it.
Nate,
Post VP debate ruminations.
Gov Palin attracted a very large audience, especially Reps & Inds.
Sen Biden presented his and Sen Obama's case, as well as busting some of Sen McCain's prjected virtues and supposed successes, largely unchallenged to these audience segments. Also Sen Biden came away from the debate looking competent and knowledgeable across a range of important issues.
All of which leads me to feel that Sen McCains future negative attacks will be substantially neutralized as the Obama/Biden pairing becomes less frightening or for many independents and republicans.
dario, I don't love either party, but I'm for the guy from the theological party. I'm not for the guy from the hippie party because nuclear power is safe and cheap, and Obama is against that. Anyone who thinks solar and wind can power all of America's electric needs has been getting too much solar power on their head.
No, mason, I don't hear voices and that includes the Abrahamic god.
So since you didn't answer, I'll presume that you do enjoy MSNBC and CNN. Probably watch Olbermann too.
GEoffrey -
Obama is banking between a 30K and 50K lead during the cross reg/vote period.
I will say that the OBama strategy of sending volunteers with vans picking up homeless guys and having them register with addresses of the local YMCA and voting on the same day is pretty scary for democracy.
MN will vote for Obama, without question. The internal polling numbers from the Obama people look very different.
Also I can tell you the MN Obama has No TV advertising, the money that is spent in MN is actually Wisconsin spent to target Eau Claire, Superior, and LaCrosse.
Common wisdom is that MN is won by a ground game. If Obama loses MN that wisdom will surely be questioned.
dmitry, solar powers my home so go fuck yourself.
Are you familiar with the concept of a force multiplier, dim? Basically, through combination of attributes, the effectiveness of a given unit is multiplied. I am the base unit My support is multiplied by convincing others to think like me. So... If my base of support for X is 100% but I convince someone else to think like me, my effective support is now 200%. We can now recruit twice as many people to think like us. If each of us get one person - bam - 400% of base support (mine).
geoffrey, I think the voters are likely to be United States citizens over the age of 18. I don't know how many though.
Hope that helps.
Porridge Gun
are you a bot? you posted that exact same post about McCain's laugh and the 5-10 minutes above.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/03/palin-says-obama-comments-disqualify-him-for-the-presidency/
PLEASE HELP ME.
I've lived half my life in Southern California but am not a US citizen so I can't vote. I'm in Europe for a couple of months at the moment so I can't campaign.
But this woman is nuts. Truly nuts. I almost regained a little respect for her last night.. Except I don't get how hockey moms banding together and saying "never again" will solve a financial crisis.
But after reading this I had had it with her. She is completely nuts.
Does anyone know of anything I can do from over here, to help make sure this woman will NEVER become VP, or even President?
I've already put a lot of cash on the McCain/Palin ticket just so I know I'll be left with a nice slump of cash if they actually do win.
This woman, by insinuating that Obama should rather lie, and deny that civilians HAVE been killed in Afghanistan, has now, beyond any doubt, what so ever, proven herself, to be completely and utterly incompetent for this job.
I got out of the army last year, and I am infuriated by this comment.
And to any "He" trolls out there. Learn how to become a good soldier before you go online a pretend to be one. Learning how to properly spell the name of your candidate, marine CORPS, and SEMPER FI is a start.
This is one of my first posts here, thanks for a great website Nate, and thanks to everyone who writes here, liberal or conservative. It's great to be able to read comments from intelligent people, both Republicans and Democrats. My apologies if this post sounded trollish, but that comment she just made, infuriated me, scared me, and motivated me more than ever to make sure this woman never gets anywhere near a foreign head of state.
RCP intrades is 67 for Obama and 33 for McCain.
And in MN is 87-15 for Obama.
I canvassed for BO here in MN 2 weeks ago in an affluent Minneapolis suburb. Slight lean to McCain, maybe 60-40.
porridgegun, the creepier thing is how much he's aged over the course of this campaign. I saw him on TV at his event today in CO and he looked like he's about to kick the bucket. Not good.
Check out the Obama price on intrade. Just dropped 8%
Yawn. It does that every so often. Lemme guess? Very small volumes?
So since you didn't answer, I'll presume that you do enjoy MSNBC and CNN. Probably watch Olbermann too.
Nope. Neither. Can't stand the 24 hr news channels.
dmitry, economic issues are the most important in this election, not the nuclear power.
I´m not an Obama supporter but John McCain has no economic plan.
And the "drill, baby, drill" yesterday was hilarious.
Geoff, how is that scary? In your opinion, homeless people should never be allowed to vote?
Tony,
Interesting. How's Obama's structure in MN look?
I checked out McCain's in GA for the general, pretty weak.
Eric said...
I don't completely agree. Ground game, newly registered voters, new African-American voters, youth are all big-time Obama advantages. Many, if not most of this new support needs to have as much opportunity as possible to vote as they may be voting for the first time. Early voting may yield the advatage Obama needs to win this thing.
That's all true, but none of those things correspond to Obama's current lead in Ohio. Those things are all accessible to him regardless of whether he's pulling the undecideds, and in practically the same proportions.
So early voting helps him overall, but the fact that he's leading now doesn't help him more (or at least much more) in early voting states. That lead is either a) his to keep regardless or b) composed of undecideds who could swing back and won't vote early.
Speaking of mooseburgers, it's Friday night and need to go grab some grub. See you all later. In the meantime, give him (the one who shall remain nameless) hell.
McCain.Craps.Pants on Intrade is now at 77 increased 10 pts.
Politico actually cut mccain some slack today, perhaps bowing to Palin's above expectations performance (remember 84% in CNN poll said Palin beat expectations)
Politico:
FRIDAY, Oct. 3, 2008
Final score: McCain wins the day
By: ALEXANDER BURNS
Call it a mini-honeymoon: the day after the vice presidential debate, most of the media chatter was focused on Sarah Palin’s non-disastrous performance in St. Louis. Insta-polls may have shown Biden emerging as the victor, but the political conversation today was about his opponent’s ability to meet expectations. McCain also caught a break when House Republicans helped pass the bailout bill today, sparing him another 24 hours of embarrassing negotiations. And the news about his Michigan pullout was largely lost in the VP frenzy.
None of these conditions will last, and more polling about the vice presidential debate could shift the public’s focus toward Biden’s strong performance. What’s more, congressional Democrats seem poised to spin the bailout’s passage as a Barack Obama production – spin that could boost his economic credentials in the coming days.
With these factors and more lined up against him, McCain may have to deliver a momentum-changing performance in one of the remaining two debates in order to win this election. For this brief moment, though, McCain got a day’s respite from the grinding pressures of an uphill campaign.
Ellen,
Presidential campaigns should not round up vulnerable people to vote for them in exchange for a few bucks and a meal.
That's not democracy, that's buying votes.
oct, no, fuck you, because I, like most Americans don't live in the desert, and solar is simply not viable for most of the country. Acquire some brains, please, and realize this important concept. Nuclear is the way to go, fucktard.
mason, I appreciate your description of Obama voters as drones. I think I agree with you there. However, jackass, this isn't a video game, so one "unit"'s effectiveness is limited at 100%. Unless you plan on voting multiple times, I guess, but even then, you as a person (and I use that term very loosely here), have a ceiling of support of 100%.
By the way, retard, I don't own a PS3. My PC is more powerful.
Your foolish arguments are not persuasive, mama'son.
Republicans shouldn't try to round up votes by promising the middle class that if they vote for McCain the riches will trickle down to them.
Nuclear will never happen "my friends".
Too expensive and no one wants it in their backyard.
Germany has solar; Denmark has wind; they aint in no desert. Read a little and learn something before writing.
geoff, I presume Obama's structure is vertical. And I don't think Nate the hypocrite has any problems with exploiting the homeless. Not as long as Obama does it.
oct, you are mistaken. There is no such contract on intrade. Was that some sort of Freudian slip? Actually, don't answer that.
The heat must be getting to you. (:
Dimwit-
Not Drones. Soldiers. Learn where words come from and you might actually have a chance at understanding them when they're used.
The SUSA MN poll doesn't look screwed up. It just looks like it's a little more than one sigma from the average. That goes for the internals too. This is supposed to happen pretty often with any honest polls. Nate does exactly the right thing- weight it by size and pollster and time, and average it in.
That said, MN is getting a little too close. O should spend a few more $ there.
This is an interesting test case for the claim made in Freakonomics that spending has almost no effect. MN is an outlier in both Mc spending and in failure to trend along with other swing states toward O. We ought to be able to extract a decent estimate of votes/$ from this.
@Dmitry- Why do you think Nate was making an asymmetrical claim about $ and votes for the two sides? Obviously it goes both ways, and he's made that point before.
/mbw
Dmitry-
Many have voted more than once in the primaries for Obama, why would that change in the general? A solid crew of Obama's ardent supporters voted in several caucuses nationwide.
Now, more people are registered to vote in Cleveland's biggest county than live there. Wonder if we'll have multiple votes?
Come on McCain will crap his pants on election nite when he loses VA, NC and IN and embarrasses Repubs for a decade.
@Dmitry- Why do you think Nate was making an asymmetrical claim about $ and votes for the two sides? Obviously it goes both ways, and he's made that point before.
Because he's an idiot troll who's trying to rack up the McCain points?
oct, nuclear is not expensive. Its cost per kW is a fraction of solar or wind. Denmark has wind, but it is not self sufficient. Germany is even less dependent.
Solar and wind are a good idea, but they are not feasible without several quantum leaps in storage and distribution.
Nuclear is the best way forward at this time. It seems you are the uninformed one here, my friend, so I urge you to heed your own advice and "read a little and learn something before writing."
Got to run republitrolls. Those polls must sting a little. The economy is the single most important issue. McCain and Bush are not good for it. End of Election. Bye Bye
Dmirty, why do you call Nate hypocrite?
@ Mason
about the 8% drop of Obama on intrade
Not exactly small volumes, ~8100 shares were sold, that's about $55k
Nuclear is dead. Not enough Uranium in the US. Remember the issue with Oil. We want a domestic supply of energy.
Wind powers Denmark on a windy day-every kW.
Solar and wind will drive 20-40 percent if we want it. T. Boone Pickens has a Wind plan and he's a Repub. Go to his www.
The new McCain campaign is attack Obama with his "liberals friends in Congress", Wright, Rezko, etc.
That´s an evidence that he has no plan to the United States.
michael, he didn't make that claim for Obama. Besides, why are you taking Freakonomics seriously?
mason, quit trolling around and stop being afucking idiot. The ceiling for support is 100%. It can't get higher than that. It's grade school math. Perhaps you should review it, along with your writing skills, since you are the one lacking them, not me.
geoff, that's very concerning. It seems rather unethical.
oct, I don't think there's a contract on that. Although we should start one on that, we could bet on it.
Geoff,
The same RepubliCon garbage regurgitated. From the party who specializes in voter suppression and is proud of it. You want to count the number of lawsuits currenttly filed by RepubliCons to suppress voters? There are atleast 3 this week and all have failed thus far. Yes, I know your ilk takes pride in keeping as many americans as possible from voting.
Geoff: Yeah, if they are paying people to vote then that is messed up. Though I've seen no evidence for or against that accusation.
The reason I asked is that I am very concerned by the situation in this country, in which people who have no homes, or have lost their homes, have little chance to vote. Plus Voting Day is not a national holiday, many people have to work, some work late, and some states close their polls quite early. Add to that the discrimination in polling place locations, easily sabotaged electronic machines, voter intimidation, and other problems, and it is getting scary here. I never want to see what happened in 2000 and 2004 happen again, and I don't just mean that a Republican got into office. I mean the completely undemocratic process. I've talked to an election observer who saw people being driven away from the polls by people dressed in military uniforms, and when he complained, he was told to shut up or he would be forced to leave.
Here in MN, our former Secretary of State, a Republican, tried over and over to create a rule that would bar all Reservation inhabitants from voting in any MN election. The GOP are becoming the party of disenfranchisement, now that the Dixiecrats are becoming Republicans.
To all you "poll junkies", I'd just like to tell you that I've been a member of the Gallup panel for years and was also called yesterday by another pollster, and I lied yesterday and I lied on my last Gallup poll when asked who I was voting for! :) It's nobody's damn business who I'm voting for!!!
I found a link to this website while reading a political article, and I was stunned to see the interest in polling. Nothing matters except the actual vote, so why waste your time debating the numbers????
Are you sure the accent has no impact?
Check out Palin's "interview" in MN:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEidkJJlD9I
LOL
"Many have voted more than once in the primaries for Obama, why would that change in the general?"
Do you have any evidence of this, Geoff? I'm not saying that it definitively is not true, but I've never seen any evidence of it. That's a pretty serious charge to level without some sort of evidence.
"nuclear is not expensive. Its cost per kW is a fraction of solar or wind."
That depends very heavily on the accounting. If you include costs incurred by the government, it is not less expensive in most areas (though solar and wind are geographically sensitive in a way that nuclear is not).
I think Dmitry needs a nap. He's a little too cranky.
Must have been the bad poll numbers he saw today.
oct, given your lack of logic in your posts, you are the troll, not me. The polls are unfortunate, but that wasn't what we were discussing. Nuclear is not dead. It is quite viable in other countries, like France, which power 70-80% of their country. Solar and wind could power 20-30 %, but it will be many more times as expensive than nuclear per kW, and nuclear could power practically all the country for less. If you're concerned about nuclear being 'dead', then vote for Mccain and don't give any more of your money to the enviromental lobby. They want energy to be so expensive that we'll all be back in the stone age. I don't care what T. Boone Pickens thinks. Why do you? He's just out to make money on wind turbines because he invested in the companies that produce them.
mason, quit being a retard. The drones I was referring to were people like you, who troll websites for Obama, not soldiers. Learn some basic math already.
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