While there are a few surprises here and there, once again the theme of today's polls is stability in the race for the White House.
John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's Zogby tracking poll, drawing from 9.5 points behind to 5.3. As you probably know, I have a signifiacnt critique of Zogby's weighting mechanism, which assumes that the partisan identification breakdown will be roughly equal to 2004, when about the same number of Democrats and Republicans turned out for the election. Neverthless, McCain also improved slightly in the Research 2000, IBD/TIPP, and ABC/Post polls. On the other hand, Barack Obama gained a point in Hotline and the Gallup "Likely Voters II" model (though not Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model), and remains at his high-water mark in Rasmussen. 
If the balance of today's national polls contain better news for McCain, the balance of the state polls show Obama continuing to perform very well in several swing states. Obama now has 15-point lead in New Hampshire according to the Boston Globe / UNH poll, which had generally contained good news for McCain earlier in this cycle. PPP puts Obama up by 9 in Virginia, while two new polls also show him with significant leads in Iowa.
Meanwhile, an Arizona poll for the Democratic strategy firm Project New West shows John McCain ahead by just 4 points there, and a couple of other polls showing a close race in McCain's home state are apparently on the way. In terms of our model, the principal effect of the Arizona polls is really not on the Grand Canyon State itself, where our model remains skeptical of an Obama upset, but rather in terms of its neighbor New Mexico, where our it is now (even) more optimistic about Obama's chances.
Counteracting the Obama trend sightly are new polls in Wisconsin and Missouri, which show somewhat better numbers for McCain than other recent polls of those states. However, that is not enough to prevent McCain's win percentage from drifting downward to 3.3 percent.
10.26.2008
Today's Polls, 10/26
@ 5:49 PM
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743 comments
the audio clip seems very reasonable to me. what's wrong with it?
Anyone have an actual link to said clip for those of us who won't subject our computers to searching Drudge?
On the topic of naming the model, I'd like to endorse the suggestion of Deep Thought from Hitchhiker's Guide. Think about it. A computer that was developed to answer the Ultimate question, the question of life, the universe and everything. It did so without ever really knowing what the actual question was. If that isn't politcal polling I don't know what is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck
I think it's damaging but you guys seem to think it's just fine.
What's wrong with it?
The radio clip is here, although you need to minimize the window to avoid catching the stupid.
This is another attempt to "manufacture a gaffe," and what Obama seems to have figured out is that such attempts rarely work without his consent. If he were to repudiate his comments or say he'd chosen his words badly, it would be an issue, but as long as he avoids saying anything that sounds like that, it's unlikely to be effective.
sherwick did you listen to the audio?
Now imagine you're a fiscally conservative undecided independent.
I am most certainly a fiscally conservative independent, but not undecided (clue, I'm not quite in the over $250k land).
YOU tell me what's wrong with the tape as I can't find anything wrong with it. But then, I think we should go back to what the people making over $250k paid in taxes under Clinton.
seretse - Yes. I am saying that.
Just like Ayers and Ashley Todd, and every other weak smear campaign they have run. All of those were HUGE and DESTRUCTIVE, etc, etc.
Excpet they aren't. And the GOP and their slimy minions keep building these things up and then the public actually sees them and goes... "Wait, that was what the fuss was about? They served on the same board?"
The only way garbage smears have an impact are if people take them seriously. So don't.
Did you even listen to it before you got concerned? It doesn't say what they are claiming. In some ways it says the opposite.
They are idiots, please stop giving them legitimacy.
I don't really see how it could damage the campaign in the last 8 days by a large enough margin to make a difference with all of the votes that have already been cast. Regardless of how some folks may feel about it, I don't see how it gets nearly the kind of traction it would need to change the basic makeup of this election.
Seretse,
What you are not taking into consideration ( and what the Major Media people do take into consideration before allowing such anonymous junk onto the main straem ) is that we are NOT getting the FULL context of what the whole discussion was about ...
Obviously they were not there just talking about an Economic Policy if other items such as voting rights were being discussed.
That said we NEED to hear the WHOLE conversation before we can deduce exactly what Sen. Obama was getting at ...
Seretse,
What you are not taking into consideration ( and what the Major Media people do take into consideration before allowing such anonymous junk onto the main straem ) is that we are NOT getting the FULL context of what the whole discussion was about ...
Obviously they were not there just talking about an Economic Policy if other items such as voting rights were being discussed.
That said we NEED to hear the WHOLE conversation before we can deduce exactly what Sen. Obama was getting at ...
seretse, what do you find wrong with what he said on the tape???
"the audio clip seems very reasonable to me. what's wrong with it?"
Nothing, unless you are a desperate right wing nutjob or a concern troll.
For some reason they seem to want to think this:
"IT WASN'T THAT RADICAL. IT DIDN'T BREAK FREE FROM THE ESSENTIAL CONSTRAINTS THAT WERE PLACED BY THE FOUNDING FATHERS IN THE CONSTITUTION."
... means the opposite of what it says.
Just idiots.
VL?
That clip (and its context) are going to be much to dense for the MSM to break down into a "gotcha" soundbite. And if they try I'm not sure it will work.
::yawn::
MindlessMissy said...
"Seretse,
What you are not taking into consideration ( and what the Major Media people do take into consideration before allowing such anonymous junk onto the main straem ) is that we are NOT getting the FULL context of what the whole discussion was about ...
Obviously they were not there just talking about an Economic Policy if other items such as voting rights were being discussed.
That said we NEED to hear the WHOLE conversation before we can deduce exactly what Sen. Obama was getting at ..."
Pretty much this. If that's the worst they can do from a very obvious cut/paste job, cherry picking what portions to play and what comments to highlight then I have to imagine that the full interview in context will be less damaging. But as I said, even if not I can't see how, even in a worst case scenario it gets enough traction in the last week of the campaign to not only swing every undecided to McCain but also enough weak Obama supporters to make up for the early votes he's already banked.
You guys...Obama said the word "redistributive" in 2001. There's only one explanation for this....he's a communist.
Seriously, I think Drudge et al are running out of straws to grasp.
Listen,
I agree with everything Obama said on the recording. He put together a sensible summary of the civil rights failures and successes.
I am convinced that it will be used as a scare tactic to push the "socialist" meme. It actually sounds like the clips are being purposefully cut to create an effect and rob the discussion of context.
Fear works is what I'm saying. The folks that decide this election aren't going to listen to this discerningly. They're going to hear civil rights failure = failure to redistribute wealth.
Sorry for the double post ...
REMEMBER: If you actrually listen the whole conversation the senator had with Joe "the unlicensed plumber" W., you would have heard one of the most intellectual reasons for the tax recode he is advocating for ..
BUT NO.. The MSM decided to run with the "spread the wealth" portion and ignore most of the conversation including the path where he explains that if Joe had been joe without the supposed capital to purchase a $250000 business, he would benefit from an Obama tax plan wherein he will be more able to save more of his earnings leading a faster recuperation of capital to buy that supposed business ...
The MSM also refused to play the portion where Mr. Obama so perfectly deduced to Joe to imagine himself with a $250000 with ZERO clientele to purchase his services because they did NOT have enough savings due to declining wages and higher costs of goods and services which is exactly what the McCain/Bush policies induce ...
The point is this, with Obama's tax plan, middle class families will be able to keep a little bit more of what they earn so as to make it able for them to afford the goods and services of the business owners which in turn lead to the business owners making more profits and this sows the seeds for reviving a dying economy ...
Seretse said...
"Listen,
I agree with everything Obama said on the recording. He put together a sensible summary of the civil rights failures and successes.
I am convinced that it will be used as a scare tactic to push the "socialist" meme. It actually sounds like the clips are being purposefully cut to create an effect and rob the discussion of context.
Fear works is what I'm saying. The folks that decide this election aren't going to listen to this discerningly. They're going to hear civil rights failure = failure to redistribute wealth."
And yet the whole "redistribute the wealth" "socialist" line of attacks have done what so far?
"Fear works is what I'm saying."
So stop spreading it.
You are being silly and you are lending credence to a particularly stupid smear.
Stop worrying about what you think other people will think. If you think it's stupid, say so and move on.
We hear the same silly worry on every single bad poll or drudge smear.
And even if it WASN'T so stupid, your "concern" is helping its narrative. So unless your goal is to try and get people to buy into this nonsense, stop projecting acceptance onto garbage.
"And yet the whole "redistribute the wealth" "socialist" line of attacks have done what so far?"
Nothing because it's never been tied to Civil rights or reparations so far.
It's going to be a race angle.
seretse,
omg
you cannot control how others make decisions
"undecideds" who are really fiscal conservatives are voting for Obama, that's why he is ahead in the polls
"undecideds" who are actually republicans (and are emotionally unable to admit republicans are no longer fiscal conservatives) having a hissy fit will probably vote for McCain
none of this matters
Seretse said...
""And yet the whole "redistribute the wealth" "socialist" line of attacks have done what so far?"
Nothing because it's never been tied to Civil rights or reparations so far.
It's going to be a race angle."
How about we wait and see if it even plays out at all in the MSM at all as well as the Obama camp's response before we take that leap into the appearance of being a concern troll? My money is on more attention paid to the upcoming 30 minute ad than some clip from 2001. I think the 30 minute ad and the McCain campaign's self canibalism dominates the news cycles between now and thursday.
Reparations... LOL.
Come on. Now I'm not sure whether you are a concern troll or a regular troll.
Good grief.
It's cut to pieces and at least some of it is clearly taken out of context.
Obama has nothing to fear here, and even if he did, he can certainly explain what he means clearly and succinctly.
Finally, this is from, what, 2001? From the time when McCain opposed the Bush tax cut for the first time?
"concern" lolol
I'm a bit concerned about how many $$$ McCain has left to spend this week...
Could be less than $100 !!!
Seriously, you want to know why most of us aren't worried?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/23/1587691.aspx
In order for this latest attack to be effective you'd have to give credit to the people that think Iowa and PA are in play to be able to make a solid strategic argument with next to no funds remaining.
There's no siren, so its meaningless.
Laugher Of The Morning:
"Drudge was pro-Obama for most of the campaign. Something changed his mind a couple of weeks ago. Maybe the Ayers thing finally sunk in..." -- post on freerepublic.com
EmonOkari said...
"Laugher Of The Morning:
"Drudge was pro-Obama for most of the campaign. Something changed his mind a couple of weeks ago. Maybe the Ayers thing finally sunk in..." -- post on freerepublic.com"
Let them pray to their savior, the Drudge. Fat lot of good it will do them.
Saw the clip. Nothing to it.
Can I go to bed now?
The freepers are still going on and on and on about Obama's birth certificate, like somehow that will save them lolol
It's quite cute, though funny at the same time.
SHERWICK said...
"The freepers are still going on and on and on about Obama's birth certificate, like somehow that will save them lolol
It's quite cute, though funny at the same time."
I'd go with sad personally. Like Obama could somehow fabricate a birth certificate AND hack the Hawaii records AND no one has ever questioned his birth prior to this point in time. Just like the claim that he had to head to Hawaii specifially to redoctor the records 2 weeks before the election.
uma, apparently there's another clip where Obama said the word "communist"! If you take that word and splice it with a few other words that Obama has said over the years then I think you can get "I am Obama and I am a communist pinko" !
The other thing that the freepers keep going on about is how all the polls are wrong and that on Election Day the 'silent majority' will suddenly appear and vote McCain in in a landslide lol
SHERWICK said...
"The other thing that the freepers keep going on about is how all the polls are wrong and that on Election Day the 'silent majority' will suddenly appear and vote McCain in in a landslide lol"
Whatever helps them sleep at night when the koolaid isn't cutting it. But speaking of, should we have all of the Obama volunteers man the suicide hotlines Nov 4th during the results? I'm not sure there is enough koolaid in the world to help them when the silent majority remains silent.
yesterday the BIG freeper hope was that the syria strike would somehow cause WW3 lol
What a sad funny bunch they are
SHERWICK said...
"yesterday the BIG freeper hope was that the syria strike would somehow cause WW3 lol
What a sad funny bunch they are"
Interesting. So the "real americans" want American attacked or a war to break out purely to promote their candidate.
yep rick, that about sums them up
Actually, I saw a bit of a problem with the Gallup poll. Check the numbers of folks involved.
"The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,794 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,448 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intentions and self-reported past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. The traditional likely voter model assumes a turnout of 60% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size is 1,821.
For results based on the sample of 2,346 "expanded" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intentions only), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. The expanded likely voter model does not make any assumptions about turnout level."
There are MORE people in the Traditional model than the so called expanded? How is that even remotely possible?
cora said...
"rick,
I believe the basic sample to be the same. On this "mother sample" Gallup works out the 3 models introducing assumptions. It could be, but I'm not sure, that the expanded model needs more extrapolation on the raw data. For example correctly accounting for cell phone users and youth who, presumably, where not reached by the pollster."
I don't claim to be an expert on this, but to me it seems off. They do indicate in the report that they include cellphone only households in their calling.
The traditional model is supposed to be both intent to vote and also past voting history while expanded is purely intent to vote which would indicate that people who intend to vote but don't have a history of it would get excluded in the first but not in the second. Yet the second is 102 people smaller of a group. While I can understand them weighting various demographics differently, how could they decide to discount more voter's comments? That just doesn't make sense to me at all.
I can understand getting rid of a voter in your analysis because you doubt he'll vote. But having decided he'll vote how do you then justify discounting his opinion?
Couldn't sleep. Asian markets have tanked, royally. Europe is up to a terrible start. Is there an end in sight?
Uma said...
"Couldn't sleep. Asian markets have tanked, royally. Europe is up to a terrible start. Is there an end in sight?"
Yes, November 5th. The investors hate not knowing who will be president, but once they know what to expect, things should stabilize some. Especially if it is someone they feel confident about as a whole.
Gas prices are down, and I've got lots of canned goods. I figure if I just don't open my 401k statement for a year or two I'll be fine...
I would love to know how many people are on this site at any given moment!
When Obama wins next week, expect a MASSIVE flight to quality in Treasuries and US bonds, driving down the interest rates and ratcheting up the prices. AMERICA IS COMING BACK AND THE REST OF THE WORLD WILL WANT TO COME ALONG FOR THE RIDE!!!
Also, at LEAST a 1000 point rally on the DOW - probably more.
uma, what you're seeing is the effect of losing all the investment banks (bankruptcy or converting to bank holding companies), forcing hedge funds to de-leverage. This has resulted in massive liquidation as the funds unwind and many go under. Kinda of like the big selloff back in January from the rogue French trader, but times 100. How long it will last is anyone's guess, but if the market can partially recover quickly -- like it did, for a time anyway, in January/Feb -- the shock to the economy may be less damaging than many might think.
Yippee, crazy (isn't Obama a Marxist) Biden interview from Florida first up on Morning Joe!
so I went to bed early last night and I come back and people are here freaking out about a radio interview from years and years ago? Boy must be the last week of really really silly season.
The fact that this is all driven by Freep and drudge tells you all you need to know. The world markets will tank today, again. And on Tuesday Paulson will let everyone know he is now nationalizing regional banks. We are all socialist now.
McCain is going to make the Commander in Chief argument this week, good luck with that. He thinks he can move the debate back to security. This is over guys!
good morning
Real Joe said...
"good morning"
Morning Real Joe the news provider. Whatcha got for us this morning?
sfergus,
Jack garner wasn't dumped in 1940, he voluntarily left the ticket. (It was Garner who told LBJ that the vice president wasn't worth 'a pot of warm p*ss') I am not sure Garner ever really had serious designs on the Presidency after the New Deal had kicked into gear, he was a canny enough pol to realise his time had passed. (he wasn't exactly young at that point either, though he did live to be nearly 100)
WaPO poll of Va has Obama up by 8.
some state numbers very favorable to Obama. These are by Reuters (Only the Inidiana number makes me sad, putting him by 6. I wanted us to take Indiana)
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081027?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews
LAT said...
"some state numbers very favorable to Obama. These are by Reuters (Only the Inidiana number makes me sad, putting him by 6. I wanted us to take Indiana)
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0LF20081027?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews"
Those are Zogby's numbers for Reuters.
Up by 6 in the state that started the KK is prety damn amazing.
Up by 6 in the state where the KKK tarted is pretty damn amazing.
What happened to my ability to delete my posts? It is GONE!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5019585.ece
McCain hiring Obama supporters in IA.
Zogby is using a likely voter model onthese Reutuers polls, and likely using 2004 party ID numbers so they are likely significantly repub skewed.
Badgerhair said...
"http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5019585.ece
McCain hiring Obama supporters in IA."
Gotta love that enthusiastic Republican base, gosh darnit.
Gallup - late upsets rare, but they do happen.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111451/Late-Upsets-Rare-Happened.aspx
There have been only 2 instances in the past 14 elections, from 1952 to 2004, when the presidential candidate ahead in Gallup polling a week or so before the election did not win the national popular vote: in 2000 (George W. Bush) and 1980 (Jimmy Carter). And in only one of these, in 1980, did the candidate who was behind (Ronald Reagan) pull ahead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College and thus win the election.
http://election-projection.net/
Probability of Win:
McCain 0.0%
Obama 100.0%
Expected Electoral Votes:
McCain 184.1
Obama 353.9
Hot Damn !
Also from Gallup:
"Races have tightened toward the end of the campaign in other years, although not to the point where the second-place candidate was able to win either the popular or the Electoral College vote. In 1968, the race between Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey narrowed over the last month of the campaign, from double-digit leads for Nixon in late September to only an 8-point lead for him among registered voters in polling conducted Oct. 17-22. By Gallup's final pre-election survey, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 2, Nixon held only a 1-point edge among likely voters, and ultimately won the election on Nov. 5 by less than 1 percentage point, 43.4% to 42.7%."
sorry guys I should have said it was down by 6 not up by 6. And yes it is Zogby, but I figured if he has Obama up with that likely voter screen then it is good news no?
Now for the best bit fo the morning. Withering, I mean really withering, piece for McCain in the New Yorker. A profile of Hagel where he plain refuses to endorse him and says he cannot do it in good conscience.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/03/081103fa_fact_bruck
Real Joe said...
"http://election-projection.net/
Probability of Win:
McCain 0.0%
Obama 100.0%
Expected Electoral Votes:
McCain 184.1
Obama 353.9
Hot Damn !"
Not too shabby. I think the EV estimate is a bit low. I'm honestly looking at closer to 400 if not over depending on how the midwest states flop at the last minute and how badly the McCain/Palin ticket implodes. Now that the campaign staff are making it clear when Palin goes off ticket she's even more likely to do so to stress the fact that she feels that the losing is everyone's fault but hers and the more she does that the worse the campaign looks and continues to blame her in a rapid downward spiral. But oh so fun to watch.
fred said...
What happened to my ability to delete my posts? It is GONE!
fix it nate !
the 1980 election is a bad example. The only (I think) debate happened on Oct 29th which is what changed the dynamics. And Reagan was down only 3%.
LAT said...
"sorry guys I should have said it was down by 6 not up by 6. And yes it is Zogby, but I figured if he has Obama up with that likely voter screen then it is good news no?"
Yeah, the numbers were posted earlier in another thread. I was just saying, there isn't necessarily need to fret over Indiana just because a Zogby poll shows Obama down. I'd personally wait for confirmation given the other recent polls.
lat-
You are correct. It is BHO down 6 in IN. I am sure the likley voter screen really helps JM in IN, but that might be real. I really think IN is the last state in the tossup column to mover to BHO. If we IN, I bet we have already won FL, OH, NC, and VA.
thanks rick. where is that mythical Selzer poll of Indiana?
yep fred. I just have this dream of Indiana being blue this year. They sort of came through for us in the primary keeping very very close--under 1%--so I would like to see something similar happen in the general. A girl can dream eh?
I think that 1980 is in some ways a good example of what CAN happen late, but if thats what the GOP is pinning its hopes on they may well be VERY dissapointed. The late debate was a factor, and as much as he might try to be, John McCain ain't no Ronald Reagan.
2000 is another interesting comparrison, but the polls were always much tighter than they have been this year. I think both late swings mentioned by Gallup have been down to ground game, evangelicals for Reagan, Trade UNion support for Gore. Now I think its possible that Palin's place on the ticket might garner some evangelical support in 2008, but given Obama's way more organised, and practiced, ground game he has a massive advantage, it seems to me in this regard over McCain.
Dream on lat, sometimes dreams do come true.
fred said...
"Dream on lat, sometimes dreams do come true."
Quite true. Not too long ago I was dreaming of a Blue Ohio. We've got time to dream up a few more states in our tsunami scenario.
People decided very late in 1980 do to the debate, and Carter presided over the worst economy we have had lately - until now possibly. Carter also brought us the Iran hostage situation, am Olympic boycott, he hated the den led Congress. Carter is a good man, but he is the second worst pres of my lifetime - surpassed only by this current abject failure.
This is not 1980 in terms of the dem candidate...it may have other similarities.
markymark-my thought on 1980 is that the Regan role is much more Obama's he had the same goal with the debate and he has been surging because he passed a confrot threshold with the voters. IMHO.
Sam Wang has a very interesting post about comparing the data from 200 and 2004 with his poll aggregation system which is a bit different than Nate's. He is making a prediction post today. Looking forward to that.
lol fred. I will. and may we be able to toast to those dreams in a week!
The Washington Post electoral map just got updated to show a 349 for BO this morning. They had been a bit more conservative until now.
hola heather! was the rally the coolest thing ever? I am thinking of going down to PA on Wednesday to see Obama
Asian markets down big overnight. Dow futures down 200-300.
lat,
I absolutely agree about the Reagan/Obama comparrison. And I think that points to the other reason for a late surge, which McCain does not have in his advantage. People know John McCain better (or feel they do)than Barack Obama, if they haven't gone for him yet why go for him at all? Obama, esepcailly with his 30 mins TV bit coming up, has a chance to reassure voters of himself, and further cement his position. Late breakers tend to go for the guy they feel they have known the least it seems to me. (Even to an extent Al Gore, running against a former President's son, benefitted from this, even though he hasd been VP for 8 years)
@Lat
Seeing Obama was great. There were 45,000-50,000 in Albuquerque! That in a town of only 800,000 or so? Now I have seen him twice. It was worth the waits and the lines both times. Donde vives tu?
Wow, this is the ugliest Dow I remember in my lifetime.
markymark-
That is exactly why there is all this negativity, McCain is trying desperately to get the undecideds to break for him.
yes marky mark I totally agree. The thing is that people assume (why?) that whoever is undecided will vote for McCain. I guess they think it is because this happened in some cases with the very late deciders with Hillary and for some reason people assume that Hillary=McCain. I find that a bit nutty no?
Heather---vivo en Nueva York. And I really think it might be worth it to take the drive down for this historic opportunity.
fred,
Absolutely, but in the ned it might do him more harm than good, might give Obama the opportunity to address the negativity and look presidential doing it.
Biggest mistake McCain has made in this campaign is to go negative so early. He has nowhere to go now, and I think some voters feel a real lack of clarity about what a McCain administration would mean to them. Obama has been far clearer (though sometimes not clear enough for my liking) on policy.
fred--you think these undecideds will be moved by fear? I think what they want is reassurance and he has not given them that ( mean McCain) which is why the fear mongering card seems to me not to be working.
my word is plaritis--sounds like an illness.
@Lat
I would definitely make the drive if I were you. It is so cool to know you are a piece of the movement. I do a lot of volunteering for the campaign, but seeing him is my personal reward for all that work.
yes heather. I do a lot of phonebanking but have never seen him in person. I want to do it before the election because that way I can be part of it--for real--not just virtually.
lat,
the mistake that that assumption (the Hillary=McCain thing) makes is that primaries are the same as Presidential elections.
In the Primaries, my feeling was that some late breakers went to Hillary, once Obama was the frontrunner, to keep the race going. But also there is a sense in voting for the safer option in the primaries. Oddly in the general, there is probably more of a preparedness to take a risk.
markymark said...
"fred,
Absolutely, but in the ned it might do him more harm than good, might give Obama the opportunity to address the negativity and look presidential doing it.
Biggest mistake McCain has made in this campaign is to go negative so early. He has nowhere to go now, and I think some voters feel a real lack of clarity about what a McCain administration would mean to them. Obama has been far clearer (though sometimes not clear enough for my liking) on policy."
I think it does a great deal more harm than good and not just to McCain's chances at election. He's priming a large portion of the population to fear a man that could be the next president. And even if it did work and he got elected, he'd then have to try to somehow work with a democratic Senate and House that he'd just spent months decrying as liberal leftist "anti-americans" and so would have almost no chance at getting anything done. Most anything they passed he'd likely veto and I don't see them passing anything he's campaigned for.
Yes, negativity works. I think that is exactly why FL is moving back and ofrth. There is a hugs subterranean e-mail hate campaign out there against Obama and it dies get to low info voters. The one aspect of the internet the repubs do get is the hate email, and they use it well.
Hate emails scare some low info voters, and older folks - my mom included (she is in FL).
Sorry for the earlier typos. wish I could delete posts.
Yes, negativity works. I think that is exactly why FL is moving back and forth. There is a huge subterranean e-mail hate campaign out there against Obama and it does get to low info voters. The one aspect of the internet the repubs do get is the hate email, and they use it well.
Hate emails scare some low info voters, and older folks - my mom included (she is in FL).
I sort of feel sorry for McCain, in a similar way to I felt sorry for Gore in 2000, simply because I wonder if he ever got to run the campaign he wanted to. Neither really looked happy running for President, both trapped by there campaign advice into a campaign that went agfainst some of there personal instincts. Gore's best moments in 2000 were when he had the chance to take control (a couple of the debates, and especially the DNC speech. I am not sure that McCain has even had that to grasp hold of though. Every step he has made has been against his instincts it seems sometimes.
great points markymark. I think too that the situation has changed since the spring. what the voters want is someone they trust in this terrible upheaval and if that means going with someone not so well know they will do that because he seems like the better bet right now, mainly because McCain has been a virtual Sybill of multiple personality disorder in terms of policy and campaign messaging.
@fred
My coworker has been fielding emails that his dad is getting in FL. They are horrible. After months of communication, his father is voting Obama. Maybe the great schlep is in order?
Heather-
I have attempted the schlep, she is a lifelong repub and will not move, but I think I have dad to the point where will he will note vote inthe presidential.
markymark--I have a hard time feeling sorry for McCain. He always gets away with people thinking he is 'honorable' even when he does, very consciously, very bad stuff. After the things he has said (Obama never puts country first) I cannot feel sorry for him.
I have friends in FL who have begun using me as interference for the smear emails. Once I sent the Jews for Jesus stuff the grandmothers started flocking to Obama. Palin really really scares them a lot.
I made the mistake of going over to Bloomberg to read the market news. I need a drink now. And it is only 7:30 am!
LAT said...
"markymark--I have a hard time feeling sorry for McCain. He always gets away with people thinking he is 'honorable' even when he does, very consciously, very bad stuff. After the things he has said (Obama never puts country first) I cannot feel sorry for him.
I have friends in FL who have begun using me as interference for the smear emails. Once I sent the Jews for Jesus stuff the grandmothers started flocking to Obama. Palin really really scares them a lot."
They aren't the only ones. I shudder any time I think about what would happen should she actually get any semblance of power at that level. Can you picture her trying to discuss serious issues with Israel or any of the Muslim nations? With her rigid mindset she'd be more likely to give inexcusable insult than broker a beneficial deal.
@fred
No vote is better than a bad vote. I have heard of some non-voting repubs here in NM, which suits me just fine. How sad is it when a Republican can't even hold their nose and vote for the candidate? McCain went way off the reservation in this campaign. Historically the Palin choice will be his worst decision ever.
@lat
I provided some of the info that turned his dad around, too. If you can get involved in one of these conversations, do it! One vote is worth it!!!
yes rick she scares the hell out of me for the reasons you mention and national issue too. but at least it is good to have info that makes a dent in the perception that obama may be dangerous and instead that the danger comes from the other side. At least with that demographic.
Heather Nordquist said...
"@fred
No vote is better than a bad vote. I have heard of some non-voting repubs here in NM, which suits me just fine. How sad is it when a Republican can't even hold their nose and vote for the candidate? McCain went way off the reservation in this campaign. Historically the Palin choice will be his worst decision ever."
No argument here. Choosing her might have made the people on the Right happy, but it killed any shot at the folks in the middle. Not only that but it energized the far left to feel much happier about Obama as well.
I only sort of feel sorry for McCain. In the end if McCain can't take control of his own campaign then his whole I am a maverick persona is a bit of a lie really. If he can't sort out his own campaign, how is he supposed to srot out the country? But I don't get the feeling he has enjoyed the experience of running for President.
Intrade Endorses Obama
According to the predictions market at intrade.com as of October 27th, the 2010 growth in the national debt will much be lower under an Obama presidency than under a McCain one.
Under a President McCain, Intrade predicts the U.S. national debt would increase at an annual rate of at least one trillion dollars, the maximum value permitted by the rules of the market.
Under a President Obama, the increase would be about 67 billion dollars.
Using similar methods, intrade predicts that U.S. troop levels in Iraq would rise over the next two years under President McCain, but decrease under President Obama. It predicted no correlation between the outcome of the Presidential election and immediate movement in either T-bonds or oil futures. In other intrade markets, the volume of trading was too low for a meaningful result.
yes heather I agree. For me it has been one little old FL. lady at a time campaign for the last month.
on that we agree markymark-- he does not look happy and he turned out to be a paper tiger. no backbone.
waiting for the Dkos tracker to go to work.
My problem is I know too much, I find I really have to tone down the facts when having a political discussion these days as I just blow the other side completely out of the water. The goal is to keep them talking and move them slowly, to show them they are complete idiots in 3 minutes or less tends to piss them off...
BUT, they are complete idiots.
lol fred. exactly.
okay tracker out I know this will bring out all the concern trolls today. no internals yet or the daily numbers but the topline numbers are 50-42
have a good day y'all
markymark said...
"I only sort of feel sorry for McCain. In the end if McCain can't take control of his own campaign then his whole I am a maverick persona is a bit of a lie really. If he can't sort out his own campaign, how is he supposed to srot out the country? But I don't get the feeling he has enjoyed the experience of running for President."
What you just said is a big part of why I DON'T feel sorry for him. It was his campaign but he let others run it in directions he himself likely doesn't agree with. But he never has shown any inclination to demonstrate that this isn't him and so he's stuck with what he created.
As you said, if he cannot control his own campaign, how can he be expected to control Washington? He says he's going to kick the lobbiests out, but he's letting them control his campaign. On top of that he's contradicted himself on just about any issue he's taken a stand on excepting the use of military might. Heck, he even said the President should vote against the pork laden bailout bill that he himself voted for. He's let not only the lobbyists but even his own talking points to take over things.
As for him being a maverick. From what I've gathered, he's basically picked a topic or two and simply raised a fuss in the public spotlight with the media loving him until he's managed to bully folks into some sort of consensus. He loves to grandstand and try to force things to go his way, but he's never really been a true consensus builder that works with others. He just plays to the media and tries to build up enough outrage to get what he wants done. When contrasted against Obama, McCain looks like the spoiled brat crying and knocking things over because the toy he wanted sold out already.
All I am saying, and bear in mind that I am and have always been a firm supporter of barack Obama, is that McCain has had a once in a lifetime chance to run a presidential campaign, and my guess is he is going to be burdened with some regrets. That being said I am pleased his message hasn't resonated and that he is going to lose.
Ask yourself this. If McCain was running with Lieberman or Ridge or Romney, wouldn't this be a competitive race?
As for being a maverick, the maverick is never really the hero of those cowboy movies anyway, Han Solo is not the star of the Star Wars movies. Mavericks are the guys who help the hero, sometimes for pragmatic or selfish reasons, but get drawn into the idealism of the actual story. I have never thought of 'maverick' as a title one should necesraily be proud of.
markymark said...
"All I am saying, and bear in mind that I am and have always been a firm supporter of barack Obama, is that McCain has had a once in a lifetime chance to run a presidential campaign, and my guess is he is going to be burdened with some regrets. That being said I am pleased his message hasn't resonated and that he is going to lose."
I fully agree he had a great chance to run a high road campaign. I seriously believe that had McCain run a campaign devoid of the truly negative attack ads he'd not only be doing much better but there would have been much better debates and we'd have had some amazing discussions on policy. That of course presumes that McCain could have scraped up a reasonably coherant economic plan, but then if I'm going to give him credit for a clean campaign I might as well toss that in as well.
Sadly, he tossed aside that and gave in to bad advice that likely went against his personal beliefs at many points. I imagine he'll regret the negativity and attacks and being pressured into picking Palin as both clearly have only served to further sink his campaign in hindsight. Sure, most of us saw both right away but it'll take hindsight for him.
My prediction: by election day we'll be down from a +8 to a +5. Everyone will see this as a McCain Surge, but he'll still get routed in the electoral college. The simple fact is, Barack Obama is above 50 in almost all national polls with solid support. Unless something really crazy happens, he will be our next President.
He will win all the Kerry states and will almost certainly win Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia as well. I think there's a good chance he also peels away Florida and Ohio. North Carolina isn't far behind.
Heather Nordquist said...
"Ask yourself this. If McCain was running with Lieberman or Ridge or Romney, wouldn't this be a competitive race?"
Very competitive I think. Naturally they didn't excite the base, but then McCain shouldn't have needed to. He should have been able to trust to Obama to drive the right to him, just as Palin drove the left to Obama. He could have stuck on more of the experience and leadership, continued to show he was anything but a standard Bush following Republican and perhaps even had a campaign that included a plan somewhere.
Looks like McCain's close is more fear. He is going after the redistribution of welath comment, but it seems that Obama talks about it in a very sane way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck
I am a rich white guy, and I am not worried, VOTE OBAMA!
This WILL resonate and must be answered by the BHO campaign...
Christopher said...
"My prediction: by election day we'll be down from a +8 to a +5. Everyone will see this as a McCain Surge, but he'll still get routed in the electoral college. The simple fact is, Barack Obama is above 50 in almost all national polls with solid support. Unless something really crazy happens, he will be our next President.
He will win all the Kerry states and will almost certainly win Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia as well. I think there's a good chance he also peels away Florida and Ohio. North Carolina isn't far behind."
Add in Indiana, Georgia and North Dakota into the mix as well as probably a few others I'm not thinking of or will flip at the last minute. My only question is how close he comes to breaking 400 or perhaps how far past it he goes.
If Obama takes his campaign to Arizona, it would tell the people of Arizona that he considers the State a vital part of the country. I say give them that respect, regardless of what the polls and the history dictate. We’ve already seen a President ignore at entire city (New Orleans) simply because of the racial/political demographic.
Obama may not turn a single vote in Arizona in 2008, but his visit may pry open a door for 2012. Hopefully his visit will be seen as an olive branch that will lead to future substantive dialog. Don’t concede Arizona, Mr. Obama, take your appeal to every corner of the country you hope to govern. We’re all Americans, and we need each other more than ever now. Take that step.
Obama needs to close with the economic/tax commercials.
fred said...
"Looks like McCain's close is more fear. He is going after the redistribution of welath comment, but it seems that Obama talks about it in a very sane way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck
I am a rich white guy, and I am not worried, VOTE OBAMA!
This WILL resonate and must be answered by the BHO campaign..."
IF it resonates, then it will be answered. Bear in mind that it's a clip from 01, it's heavily cut/pasted and likely taken out of context in many parts. What I caught in it was a discussion of the civil rights movement and how legal the actions the Supreme Court took were and what extra steps they might have been able to take within the bounds of the law.
heather,
my answer to your question is quite complicated. I think it would have been more competitive with Romney next to McCain, but essentially the same undercurrent going on. (Both McCain and Romney after all are out of the Bush mould in some ways, and this election, in a lot of ways has been about being hte least like George W Bush).
As for Lieberman, I wonder if he even gets the nomination in the end. I wonder if McCain doesn't have a messy floor fight on his hands and the GOP gets torn apart or is open revolt to its candidate. In this case, we are talking about a far bigger drubbing for McCain.
Ridge is more complicated. I think he gets through the convention relatively unscathed, but what you end up with is a less enthused GOP, probably in the end a similar position to we are in right now.
I think the smartest move McCain could have made after the DNC was a floor fight for Vice President. Would have garnered some enthusiasm for the ticket from the party, would have countered some of the drama of the DNC, and would have taken some of the excitement from the Democratic Party. (In short done most of what the Palin pick did without lumbering McCain with a dud as VP)
I am a lawyer, what struck me about the clip is how smart Obama is and how he understands the strngths and limitations of the different arms of the government. Bush does not even understand the constitution needs to be protected, or that the VP is part of the executive.
Obama is one smart dude.
I have to say, living abroad and being half American its thrilling to me that America is about to elect a smart guy, who is not afraid to show his brain off, as President.
I get it in the neck so often about Americans being dumb, and all that, and for once in my lifetime it feels, America is going to pick the intelligent guy ahead of the populist guy.
@markymark
Points well taken. Romney could have given him the economic background he needed for the financial meltdown, but I truly believe some moderate Dems would have overlooked the socially conservative faults with Romney. They would at least have considered McCain/Romney because they would think that team might dig us out of the hole.
Lieberman would have given the finger to the hard-core neocons, but would have easily stripped off enough independents and moderate dems to keep it more competetive. The left would NEVER vote for Lieberman, as he is seen as a real Judas.
Ridge would have angered the base, but they would hold their nose and vote for him. Again, the "middle" would be in play.
In any case, revving up only the base (the Palin pick) was a tragic move for McCain. His strength was with the middle. He was bullied into pandering to the far right of the party, and that bankrupted the premise of the centrist, party-crossing guy that most Americans had come to at least respect, if not like.
"okay tracker out I know this will bring out all the concern trolls today. no internals yet or the daily numbers but the topline numbers are 50-42"
Obama's Sunday number was a +5. His weekend numbers in this poll always seem to suck, then it goes back up over the course of the week.
heather,
I think McCain always risked being tagged as more of the same, and he didn't really have a veep to change that direction of the election. I think anyone but Palin would have been a more honorable choice, but was the huge polling collapse due to Palin or due to the economic fears around the banking crisis and the stock market collapsing? I think Palin has made the switch easier for some, more easy to excuse going against the war hero, but I don't think it cost McCain the election. It was McCain who closed his campaign down to deal with the crisis, a fortnight after it had begun, and then hardly hot footed it back to Washington.
Where are you living at MarkyMark? I will move to Vienna in January.
Near London.
Vienna is lovely mind. But am pretty much 50/50 USAer and British now, still hold citizenship, still vote in US, but also have british citizenship. Would find moving back very very tough, though did live in Massachusetts for much of my childhood.
I wouldn't want to live in the US now, either. My job offer in Vienna was my exit plan in case of a McCain win. Now, I will go anyway, but know that my country might be ok after all. LOL
Vienna is a lovely city. I am looking forward to it.
Hi folks,
I just read a WSJ article on Mc's health care plan. It may shock those who know my posts to learn that I was essentially undecided after the primaries. When I started looking at the candidates' policies, Mc's health care plan was the first of his ideas to push me away.
I always had employer coverage until recently when I learned the absurdities of getting individual coverage. If you haven't ever been down this road, let me forewarn you that you will be denied coverage if you've gotten ANY prescription filled in the last 2 years (other than antibiotic cream for a flesh wound) and/or if you are even 5 lbs "overweight", even if you engage in cardio and weight training regularly. I currently have a fairly expensive "ghetto" policy: covers nothing except losing my house in the event of catastrophe.
I couldn't imagine the wisdom of a policy that would force people into the insane private coverage market. The WSJ article explains it "perfectly" (the intentions of the policy are clear, although bone-headed IMHO):
Will the insurance that is purchased be a generous plan with first dollar coverage or low deductibles? It is much more likely to be a plan with higher deductibles that is more focused on providing true insurance against catastrophic losses rather than a more generous plan that includes a lot of prepayment for routine and predictable medical expenses. But this is precisely one of the objectives of the policy: to reduce the current tax bias that encourages people to funnel routine health expenses through insurance policies.
@newsinoh
The McCain health plan is completely ridiculous. My father and brother have diabetes, and they would be out in the cold if not for employer health insurance. The risk pools would be diminished when his plan took effect, making it virtually impossible for them to get coverage.
The real problem here is that McCain treats health care just like any other service we purchase. Let the free market reign. This ignores the realities of the health care industry, which would seek to exclude the people who most need it.
I am not opposed to markets doing their thing with most industries, but health care should be an exception, otherwise only the healthy can afford the services.
The risk pools we enjoy in employer-based programs would be diminished if we allowed all the young and healthy to purchase from outside the system, leaving only the sick and old to be covered. It is a recipe for disaster, and would leave many people without.
heather,
At least now I understand that the GOP emphasis is on the "insurance" part; not the "health" part. They view it much like auto insurance--pay for the crash but not the brake replacement. Fine, but we can't change bodies like we do cars.
Seems to me that one of the fundamental problems is the lack of proper preventative measures, like getting brakes fixed to avoid the costs of the multi-car collision. Right now, because of the crazy insurance schemes, I won't go for preventative care because, God forbid, if I get a prescription, I'm totally screwed if I have to get insurance again!!!
I know, I know, it's a short term fix to an immediate problem. A few bucks now to avert a big ticket item down the road but that down the road will roost with the insurance companies eventually, driving costs up across the board. It's just lunacy to me.
I can't see how covering the small costs in screening and wellness wouldn't ultimately lower costs . . . Again, just emphasizing the "health" part . .
Mc is touting that he just launched a "new" ad called "Life Savings". Truth be told, that ad has aired here in OH for at least a week. Seems to be just a desperate attempt to get something into the news cycle other than Palin's clothes which, thanks to her going off message, continues to play.
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