While there are a few surprises here and there, once again the theme of today's polls is stability in the race for the White House.
John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's Zogby tracking poll, drawing from 9.5 points behind to 5.3. As you probably know, I have a signifiacnt critique of Zogby's weighting mechanism, which assumes that the partisan identification breakdown will be roughly equal to 2004, when about the same number of Democrats and Republicans turned out for the election. Neverthless, McCain also improved slightly in the Research 2000, IBD/TIPP, and ABC/Post polls. On the other hand, Barack Obama gained a point in Hotline and the Gallup "Likely Voters II" model (though not Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model), and remains at his high-water mark in Rasmussen. 
If the balance of today's national polls contain better news for McCain, the balance of the state polls show Obama continuing to perform very well in several swing states. Obama now has 15-point lead in New Hampshire according to the Boston Globe / UNH poll, which had generally contained good news for McCain earlier in this cycle. PPP puts Obama up by 9 in Virginia, while two new polls also show him with significant leads in Iowa.
Meanwhile, an Arizona poll for the Democratic strategy firm Project New West shows John McCain ahead by just 4 points there, and a couple of other polls showing a close race in McCain's home state are apparently on the way. In terms of our model, the principal effect of the Arizona polls is really not on the Grand Canyon State itself, where our model remains skeptical of an Obama upset, but rather in terms of its neighbor New Mexico, where our it is now (even) more optimistic about Obama's chances.
Counteracting the Obama trend sightly are new polls in Wisconsin and Missouri, which show somewhat better numbers for McCain than other recent polls of those states. However, that is not enough to prevent McCain's win percentage from drifting downward to 3.3 percent.
10.26.2008
Today's Polls, 10/26
@ 5:49 PM
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It's time to revive the discussion from two weeks ago about Obama being in "dead girl, live boy" territory.
The man who dared to defy Rove.
This is bad news.....
for OBAMA
GO8AMA
The 1 McCain landslide scenario disappearing is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!1!!!.
I'd love to see an animation over time of the distribution graph with a single scale (instead of the shifting scale). Would be fun to see the lines grow and shift.
First line of this post needs editing.
Nate,
At what point does the number of early voters factor into the McCain "bounce"?
This is great news -- for SARAH PALIN!!! http://www.funderoos.com
There's a typo in your second sentence, Nate - you're missing what I assume is the word "Zogby".
+4 in AZ? *drools just a little bit* I think it's pretty clear that the McCain/Palin campaign is imploding from within as Palin "goes rogue" and John McCain talks about "test[ing] the world."
You know, people have been talking about how the media are giving Palin so much grief for breaking with the ticket/campaign while not really doing so about the Biden gaffes - this is because the Obama campaigners have not themselves been hanging Joe out to dry. Nobody in the Obama campaign is calling Joe a diva or talking about him "going rogue", hence, no story.
Obama/Biden '08!
As I said earlier, the model's name should be PEROT for Political Expected Result Optimization Tool. That way it would have the same naming convention as Nate's other famous model, PECOTA, which is based on the surname of a former baseball player.
The Reuters article on the Zogby poll says Obama's lead is 14 points among independents. How can Obama have a 14 pt lead among independents but only a 5 pt lead overall? Wouldn't that mean that
Question: will the model ever put McCain's win percentage at zero? If we get to Monday the 3rd and Obama has polling numbers exactly like today's numbers, will the model say it is over?
3.3%, lol!
The Arizona Cardinals losing by four points -- opposite the new polling for McCain in AZ -- is GREAT NEWS!! For small business owners like Cindy McCain!!!!
I'm thinking that if Obama shows up in Georgia even once between now and next Tuesday, it would be enough to tip the state in his favor. And even if he doesn't, he's about to seal the deal this week anyway.
Note to all those bitchin' about Nate's excellent free advice to McPalin in the NY Post: McPalin has followed it so well that his chances of winning the election have now gone from 5% to 3%.
How about some more advice to him!
Folks can decide for themselves, but does anyone find it odd that as the election approaches, for pretty much the first time ever, the US is striking in Syria and Pakistan. We've been fighting "the bad guys" over there for about 7 years. Why now? By the way, both are nuclear capable. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Smell fishy? I think you get my point.
Drudge Siren....
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/palin_plans_pennsylvania_tour.php
They are not following Nate's advice. Here comes the battle of pa...
Folks,
PA tracker:
O 53 - 40
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pa_obama_53_mccain_40_muhlenbe.php
McCain is really trending the wrong way here. He was down to 10 points earlier this week.
With Mason-Dixon giving McCain a small lead in Missouri, now, I wonder how much that will affect the predicted outcome, once its incorporated into Nate's weighted average for that state. Currently, Nate has BO up 1.5. It likely is a true toss up at this point, unless there is good reason to doubt Mason-Dixon.
This is the CNN article on McCain advisors describing Palin's recent behavior as "going rogue".
I got a call from team Zogby yesterday. In addition to the Presidential questions, they asked me about the possibility of hosting the Olympics in Chicago. I live in New York. I ended that conversation scratching my head.
elliv said...
Folks,
PA tracker:
O 53 - 40
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pa_obama_53_mccain_40_muhlenbe.php
McCain is really trending the wrong way here. He was down to 10 points earlier this week.
McCain Surge !!!
I know this must look good to the faithful, but I am absolutely convinced that Obama can still lose. Early November marks the 4th and 8th anniversaries of the two worst Wednesday mornings of my life. For those of you who have only recently become involved and invested in Presidential politics, believe me: Republicans always have a few aces hidden, and Democrats are always able to find new ways to fuck up an election.
Please, please, please, ACCELERATE through the finish line next week! Help Dems win your precinct, your town, your state. Don't allow November 5th, 2009 to become your Black Wednesday.
"John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's (ntional polls?)."
Nate, you can still be accused of burying the lede, even in a blog. The point is 8 days left and McCain's own surge has only succeeded in knocking himself down to 3.3% chance of success.
Obama will win the popular vote about 54-44. He'll win Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, all of the Kerry states and possibly 1 o 2 others. At least 395 electoral votes. Biggest landslide since Eisenhower in 1956.
you like apples GOP?
I might be mistaken but wasnt there another arizona poll with mccain only up 2? Why is it not included in Nate's model??
Three very minor buzzkills today are Zogby and ABC trending down for Obama, and the Mason Dixon MO poll showing McCain clinging to a one point lead.
The rest looks good, especially the RR +8. Of the 52% he's showing for Obama 48% are certain.
I'd still like to know why the GQR poll of 10/24 was weighted 0.00!
"Obama will win the popular vote about 54-44. He'll win Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, all of the Kerry states and possibly 1 o 2 others. At least 395 electoral votes. Biggest landslide since Eisenhower in 1956."
That seems a bit optimistic to me. I've always agreed that McCain will likely win late-breaking voters. If you haven't jumped on the Obama bandwagon by now, you probably were never going to.
I'll stick with 52-47 as my popular vote prediction
nate, if you have such a problem with zogby's weighting, why is so close to r2000?
"I might be mistaken but wasnt there another arizona poll with mccain only up 2? Why is it not included in Nate's model??"
Internal party poll, I believe.
I'll explain if you think I'm being biased, but FYI, Mason-Dixon and Zogby both have a Republican bias and are close to irrelevant.
Nate has now corrected the lede sentence of the second paragraph to read "Zogby poll".
"the US is striking in Syria and Pakistan. ... By the way, both are nuclear capable."
I'm not sure what defines Syria as "nuclear capable." Pakistan is not fairly called "nuclear capable." Pakistan is a nuclear power with a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons and the capacity to deliver them.
(AP) - Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin will visit Jeffersonville on Wednesday in her first campaign stop in southern Indiana.
The Alaska governor will join Hank Williams Jr. at a rally for Republican presidential nominee John McCain at a Jeffersonville warehouse owned by Capstone Real Estate Inc.
The visit, coming after Palin's stop Saturday in Fort Wayne, will be her third campaign stop in Indiana as Republicans try to prevent Illinois Sen. Barack Obama from becoming the first Democrat to carry Indiana since 1964.
McCain campaign Great Lakes regional coordinator Jennifer Hallowell says "southern Indiana is very important" to McCain's campaign.
The Arizona senator hasn't been to Indiana since he spoke to the National Sheriffs' Association on July 1.
@real joe...Looks like they are not following Nate's advice at all...Losers.
Palin going to Indiana
WOW
Please make a blog post about whether election fraud will affect the outcome!
Indiana may go blue
they are playing defense
Eric, the strikes are patently obviously politically motivated. No tactic is too low for Regressives. If they thought they could spill the blood of 100 children and have it give them the election, they'd hesitate no longer than it took to find the dagger.
joacim said...
Please make a blog post about whether election fraud will affect the outcome!
no need for a blog post
the answer is no
InkStain said...
"Obama will win the popular vote about 54-44. He'll win Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, all of the Kerry states and possibly 1 o 2 others. At least 395 electoral votes. Biggest landslide since Eisenhower in 1956."
That seems a bit optimistic to me. I've always agreed that McCain will likely win late-breaking voters. If you haven't jumped on the Obama bandwagon by now, you probably were never going to.
I'll stick with 52-47 as my popular vote prediction
I have a feeling, as of November 1-4, the media will have to relay the truth. Obama whooped McCain in early voting and has about a 6-14 point lead in national trackers. They'll pretty much admit it's over. Instead of the fight for the underdog tightening, there will be a jump on the bandwagon widening and we'll see an election called before the polls close on the West Coast by the networks. I think OBama wins Virginia by 6+ points, Ohio by 5+ points, and Pennsylvania by close to 10. We'll see who's right. If you're right, but the big "O" still wins I'm happy. I'll take 269-269 Congrees tiebreak for Obama, I'm not greedy. Just giving you my guess.
McCain in denial on MTP
Palin going off the Rez.
Getting ugly out there.
anybody know the crowd size ?
2nd Obama rally ?
1st one had 100000+
"I'll stick with 52-47 as my popular vote prediction"
I agree with this. I think it's likely that 70-80% of the undecided voters will stick with McCain. But we're getting really close to the point where a majority of American voters have jumped on the Obama bandwagon (and have decided they will not jump off).
I can't believe right now we are seeing a defense in Indiana. We will see defense in Mo.
The Obama camp played it perfectly. Just amazing.
My dream now: Sunday evening: AZ rally.
Sunday night: fly to Alaska
Monday AM: Anchorage Alaska Rally (talk about eating a news cycle)
Monday night: fly back to Chicago
Yet again, I have to ask, how can "McCain loses OH/FL" happen 8167 times when McCain only loses FL 75% of the time? How?
Mark Hussein in VA said...
Eric, the strikes are patently obviously politically motivated. No tactic is too low for Regressives. If they thought they could spill the blood of 100 children and have it give them the election, they'd hesitate no longer than it took to find the dagger.
I actually didn't believe that until recetly. At this point, I'd believe they'd start WWIII with nukes and everything to retain power. I don't pray, ever. But, I pray we turn the corner november 4th. The last 8 years have been deplorable and unacceptable.
Mason-Dixon has a Republican lean this year. So a Missouri +1 for JM isn't that great..
Unfortunately, I think this is their first MO poll so I can't compare to previous
By the way, the "This is great news for..." meme is very played and not funny.
McCain guaranteed a win on Nov 4th on Meet The Press this morning. Either he is delusional, or the Republicans have enough voting machines rigged that they already know the outcome. This is actually my biggest fear.
The thing that gives me a shiver up my leg and makes me see starbursts is that just counting the states that Nate rates at 100% for Obama, we end up with 224 EVs banked already.
you liberals worry too much
its over
Obama needs hold a huge rally in Phoenix before the election. Its not about spite; this election is still theoretically competitive, and he's basically within the margin of error there. Or would this backfire?
And if Obama has done nothing in the state and is within 4, was it a tactical blunder not to invest resources there months ago?
Eric -
1964, 1972 and 1980 and 1984 were all electoral vote landslides greater than 1956.
The talking point goal is for Obama to have the biggest point spread for a first term president since 1932 (he won't top Reagan's 1980 EVs). I think if he hits at 11 point margin (54-43 for example) it will qualify.
"you liberals worry too much"
This is what happens when you convince yourself the election was "stolen" from Kerry after Bush led the polling consistently in October and Nov.
Real Joe said...
anybody know the crowd size ?
2nd Obama rally ?
1st one had 100000+
Fort Collins ain't Denver. I'm sure there aren't near the amount of people. Also, I understand Kennedy had 100s of thousands at rallies and barely won, let's not assume anything just yet. Anything can still happen.
I love this number. 3.3%. Let me just let that sink in.
AZ, NM, and CO have a lot in common, and I am not that surprised there has been an Obama surge, even in McCain's home state. Latinos and Native Americans are supporting BO in a big way.
Here's some photos from ABQ last night. I couldn't believe this crowd. Can anyone say monumental?
http://www.democracyfornewmexico.com/democracy_for_new_mexico/2008/10/first-peek-obama-at-johnson-field-in-albuquerque.html
thanks for doing the daily update at a reasonable time for us brits..
FEEDBACK PLEASE
Just wondering...there has been some talk about the election being called early by the networks via Obama winning VA, OH, FL etc...how do you guys think this would affect voting in the West?
I could see this possibly impacting CO or NM and leaving them with a dwindled Obama win..however could this also affect AZ? Could people whose candidate shares their homestate be even more dissapointed than some other neighboring states and skip going to the polls? Could this + the new poll numbers in AZ (although the 2+ Mc poll was an insider poll) allow for an Obama win in the Grand Canyon state?
I've questioned early voting there (not even sure if they have it) but if they did the McCain supporters who are staunch in their enthusiasm would have already done it. Leaving voters who aren't as enthusiastic waiting until election day..but if they already know their candidate has lost, they would logically skip the polls all-together seeing it as a lost-cause
sfergus483 said...
Eric -
1964, 1972 and 1980 and 1984 were all electoral vote landslides greater than 1956.
The talking point goal is for Obama to have the biggest point spread for a first term president since 1932 (he won't top Reagan's 1980 EVs). I think if he hits at 11 point margin (54-43 for example) it will qualify.
I'm talking popular vote. Electoral vote landslide would be close to impossible to rank #1. I think Mondale won like two states in 1984. Yeah, 1932. Obama = FDR+Reagan/2. That'll work.
Not to be cynical here, but I agree with Joacim. I'd like a poll assessment based on factors like voter suppression, touch-screen vote flipping, the tossing out of ballots and other likely shenanigans.
Justin --
"Just wondering...there has been some talk about the election being called early by the networks via Obama winning VA, OH, FL etc...how do you guys think this would affect voting in the West?"
After what happened with Gore the networks are very cautious. Plus, it's to their benefit to keep the audience as long as possible.
AZ is "pink." Obama should pay a visit to AZ and GA ASAP. They will flip by the weekend.
To a certain extent, the Arizona thing makes sense. I know it's the 5th largest city and he hasn't been there. My gut tells me that's a little too aggressive. Atlanta is borderline assuming, but with the early voting so far, it might make sense. With only 8 days left, just fight in the known battleground, leave Arizona alone.
Interesting that even in states he is winning, McCain is not over 50% in a single poll out today.
"there has been some talk about the election being called early by the networks via Obama winning VA, OH, FL etc."
They won't formally call it until he gets to 270, and he can't realistically do that without the west coast.
"Just wondering...there has been some talk about the election being called early by the networks via Obama winning VA, OH, FL etc...how do you guys think this would affect voting in the West?"
I think it's highly unlikely that the election gets called for Obama before the polls close (except maybe HI/AK). Even if Virginia's margin holds up (Obama +10) it's unlikely to be called early. I looked at the timing of NBC's state-calling in 2004, and, for example, Virginia was a healthy Bush win but wasn't called until almost 9 pm. I think it's likely to be closer than this in 2008.
Obama can't (shouldn't) go into AZ. That would be seen as "rubbing it in McCain's face." Winning AZ would be great but the risk of the media backlash of him going there at this point isn't worth it.
@jnorthrop
Yes...this is what the articles are saying...ABC has been pretty verbal on it. They admit they want to keep as many viewers as possible, but admitt that at some point the could no longer play dumb to the public. Plus the networks really wouldn't have to say the words "Election for Obama" If Obama wins PA, OH and VA, it will be pretty obvious, I think even to the average Joe, that Obama has won.
any rumours about wed night yet? what's the deal with the broadcast?
obama is in florida on wed with slick willy.
If Obama protects PA and visits all of the potential tipping points, that'd be the smart move. He should make sure in the next 8 days he visits PA, OH, FL, VA, NC, GA. Where else? He's just been to Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.
Justin --
I guess it's possible that one network calls the election early in an attempt to draw viewers to them... When the election is called would make a good office betting pool.
"If Obama protects PA and visits all of the potential tipping points, that'd be the smart move. He should make sure in the next 8 days he visits PA, OH, FL, VA, NC, GA. Where else? He's just been to Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado."
PA, VA, CO are the most important states in my view. They're all handily in his favor and if they stay with him he essentially clinches. OH, FL, NC are the next tier where he's narrowly ahead. I wouldn't spend too much time in GA, MO, IN, or visit less likely states, just because it's infinitely more important to get to 270 than to go for a blowout. Time is running short, make sure of the victory.
Rasmussen points out that Obama's support is more solid than McCain's.
Quote:
Today is the 31st straight day that Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain.
This makes me more hopeful that this time, the Dems won't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The champagne's on ice.
@Eric
I would be very worried about a 269-269 tie. We could have one rogue electoral voter! The real Bradley effect. A faithless, racist elector who lied to the Democrats about his bona fides and then gave the election to McCain.
If any network can call North Carolina early, the election is over. Any network or polling agency could do November 4th exit polling in North Carolina. If McCain isn't whooping Obama in election day exit polling, the race is 100% over. If you were looking for leading indicators, that's it. Obama will probably have a 5+% lead going into election day, maybe closer to 10. It's east coast and 15 electoral votes. If North Carolina is won, then Virginia is too. Obama can't lose with both. If anyone wants to be first to know, that could be the leading indicator. Stats folks, back me up.
Eric said...
If Obama protects PA and visits all of the potential tipping points, that'd be the smart move. He should make sure in the next 8 days he visits PA, OH, FL, VA, NC, GA. Where else? He's just been to Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.
Maybe add MO to that list? But again, he isn't going to try to run up the score. He's played the election game perfectly from day 1 and my guess is he'll continue to visit the "battleground" states just to make sure they don't get away from him. The rest is sprinkles on top of the icing that is on the cake.
The entire northeast coast (including NH) + VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, IA, MI, WI (and Georgia in an all out blowout) gives Obama an exact 270
100,000 in Denver today
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/26/154755/53/904/642867
JFK didn't have rallies with 100s of thousands of people.
He did have one on the eve of the election in the Fshion District
(7th Avenue) in Manhattan with claims that there were a half million people, but NYC crowds are always exaggerated (the million people at Times Square for NYEve are closer to 100,000). But it is generally understood to have been the largest single rally in US history.
Omet said...
"By the way, the "This is great news for..." meme is very played and not funny."
Know what's "played?" The word "meme." It seems to be everywhere lately. Along with "in the tank," "under the bus" and the phrase that dare not write its name...that's right 538ers.
THE BRADLEY EFFECT
Lovin' it.
STepper said...
@Eric
I would be very worried about a 269-269 tie. We could have one rogue electoral voter! The real Bradley effect. A faithless, racist elector who lied to the Democrats about his bona fides and then gave the election to McCain.
No way. Perhaps if McCain won the popular vote, which ain't happening. not unless the faithless elector would want to be a kamikaze martyr. I doubt anyone's that nutz!
45,000 last night in Albuquerque. McCain had fewer than 2,000 earlier in the day. Even I feel a little sorry for him over THAT.
@mysticlaker --
A high-level campaign official says that Obama is going to use the half hour to do a debate the way it should have been done.Obama is going to have a moderator who asks real questions and follow-ups to which Obama will answer. For McCain's part they have hired a famous ventriloquist who will parrot Republican talking points using a McCain puppet.
Pretty close to real-life...
Election day exit polls include (or make an attempt to include) early voting. Networks do NOT make projection without including that separate polling when states have it.
Nah, I think liberals are worried because the modern Republican party is absolutely terrifying. And optimism has led to disappointment in presidential elections this decade.
Like, most passenger airplanes do not crash. The chance of experiencing a plane crash is minimal. But if you have (somehow) survived two plane crashes, you'd be pretty nervous every time you got on an airplane.
Blogger Eric said...
If any network can call North Carolina early, the election is over. Any network or polling agency could do November 4th exit polling in North Carolina. If McCain isn't whooping Obama in election day exit polling, the race is 100% over. If you were looking for leading indicators, that's it. Obama will probably have a 5+% lead going into election day, maybe closer to 10. It's east coast and 15 electoral votes. If North Carolina is won, then Virginia is too. Obama can't lose with both. If anyone wants to be first to know, that could be the leading indicator. Stats folks, back me up.
I think the networks are now ultra sensitive about calling things early, particularly before every polling location has closed. It will be interesting to see what time they officially call it though. I'm glad I live in the west coast :-)
Earlier post was regarding the first states to close and if O won them check out
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=gc
It's interesting to see how when the election could be called (or at least bluntantly seen as an O win) if you go to the site and look at poll closing times
@Eric
The Rethuglicans are true believers. Lots of them are that nutz and werse.
(Misspellings on purpose.)
rich merritt: the one I'm sick of is "game, set, match."
These polls are great news!!! For Barack Obama!!!
Wow, look how BLUE that map is!
On this day, October 26th, in 2004, George Bush led John Kerry 49.0% to 45.3%.
For Final results, please see presidential inauguration, January 2005
John Kerry never again led in any major tracking poll
(48) days since the Fundamental Shift towards McCain/Palin as described by PeteKent
You 'Cons should be getting really nervous!
Congratulations to President Barack HUSSEIN Obama Jr. Get used to saying it, rethugs.
(emphasis placed on middle name to spite race-mongerers who tried to use it politically)
Cowardly Trolltards MIA:
Midpoint Man
Oz Johnny
Greg
Jack Black
CTPEM
CTSTW
Muhlenberg College
Pennsylvania
Obama 53, McCain 40
(10/21-25: Obama 53, McCain 41)
Survey director Chris Borick emails: "Today's release is earlier than usual due to the Phillies World Series game this evening."
Good thing SOMEONE has their priorities straight!!
@ andrew
"Obama needs hold a huge rally in Phoenix before the election. Its not about spite; this election is still theoretically competitive, and he's basically within the margin of error there. Or would this backfire?"
Salt on the wound. It would likely look arrogant and possibly backfire. I think the strategy Obama has going will be more than sufficient judging by the blue bleeding down on the map from the midwest.
sfergus483 said...
JFK didn't have rallies with 100s of thousands of people, etc.
Thanks for the info.
I know he had 1,000,000+ in Berlin in '62. Those folks like to flock together. Not relevant. It was interesting watching Fareed Zakaria today with the French and German perspective. Anyone see it?
BTW anyone ever play around with the site 270towin.com? I've noticed even they have the map already set at 277 EV's for Obama. Kinda funny when you think about that site even doing it since it is mainly a site to see what states get which candidate to an EV win.
Here is an interesting metric that surfaced over this weekend; McCain held a rally in Albuquerque on Saturday morning, CNN reported about 1000 people attending. Obama held aa Albuquerque rally Saturday evening and attracted over 45,000 people, some lining up for over 9 hours to get in.
Today in Iowa McCain held another rally at Northern Iowa University Gymnasium with 2000 people, and at Civic Center Park in Denver Obama had over 100,000 people stop by.
A 50:1 ratio is saying something...
@loralee
I was one of the 45,000 in ABQ, and I don't feel a bit sorry for him. Anyone who had doubts about NM, get over them. We are in the tank for BO and that is very good news for Barack Hussein Obama
STepper said...
@Eric
The Rethuglicans are true believers. Lots of them are that nutz and werse.
(Misspellings on purpose.)
I imagine they'd realize as Jack in "A Few Good Men" would say, they'd be putting lives in danger. I suppose they wouldn't care is the thought.
Interesting that Barack is now
referred to as "O",. I thought
the "O" was reserved for Oprah, the
queen of daytime talk. I wonder if
there is a role for "O" (Oprah) in
"O" Obama's administration.
GO OBAMA!
There are 286 electoral votes among the states that 538 currently gives Obama a 95% or better chance of winning. This has been the case, or nearly the case, for quite sometime. This is the genius of 538's modeling, this is why McCain has a 3.3% chance of winning (is this a new low percentage?), and this is why I am a happy man.
A 50:1 ratio says that Obama supporters are enthusiastic...it says the McCains crowds rely on the fear-mongering Repub's who think Obama is a liberal who will eat babies and usher in the the rise of the Devil
In 2000, the election was on 11/7, so the corresponding day for today is 10/29, not 10/26 for what it's worth.
@heather
Me, too. Which one were you? :-)
@wingnut
It isn't very often that the candidates are in the same exact city on the same day. That was what was so astounding about ABQ. The BO crowd was just so overwhelming. BTW~ Bernalillo County (where ABQ is) is the true "swing" part of our swing state and the most populous. I live up north, where the Dems outnumber the Repubs by about 8:1, but it is pretty evenly split by party where the rallies were held.
My only worry now is an asteroid strike wiping out the northeastern United States.
Talk me down somebody.
I don't believe Mississippi is +13 McCain for a second. We've seen multiple polls giving him a 6-8 lead, and I seriously doubt he doubled that in a week.
Anyone want to share their thoughts of Texas with me? I get the impression that generally the country thinks we're all a bunch of fools. Fair?
not that I am trying to pull away people from my beloved 538 site but electoral-vote.com has a feature that does "This day in 2004" that also shows the Electoral Map projection. It's pretty interesting...Nate, a feature like this would be a great addition. You can add it in as a "countdown feature" of sorts with only 8 days left (not including today of course)
Thank fuck for state polling. Because, if the people being polled nationally is anything to go by, there's still a shitload of morons out there.
At this stage, for McCain to gain anything in these national polls is perplexing. I know it's only a point or two, but it's disturbing to me that McCain isn't below 40%. What more do these moronic 2-5% need to see?
SHOCKING.
The 'great news' meme being played and not funny is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
How does McCain achieve the 3.3%
chance of winning based upon the
polling? What's the path to 270 EV
for McCain/Palin?
STepper said...
My only worry now is an asteroid strike wiping out the northeastern United States.
Talk me down somebody.
No asteroid coming. Not in the next 8 days anyway.
Now, a greater concern would be, is the administration daring Syria or Pakistan to do it. I pray not. Just sayin'. Certainly, a better chance than an asteroid.
RCP now lists 6 states as "toss-ups". Obama leads in 5 of them (FL, NV, NC, MO, and IN). McCain leads in only one: MT. McCain's lead in MT is a paltry 3.3 pts.
The only bright spot I see for the Repub party is that it doesn't look like the Dems will get 60 seats in the Senate (which is really more of a lightened dark spot than a bright spot). I'll be curious to see what the Repub party does over the next couple of years to try to keep the party from dying a slow death.
@Eric...I would say that is a good general consensus..however people feel the same about Kansas where I am. We even have a new indie doc coming out that is getting pretty good reviews...It's titled "Whats the matter with Kansas?"
@loralee
I was somewhere in the middle of the crowd. I had to drive from north of Santa Fe. It was worth it, though. I saw him in September in Espanola, too!!
Obamanos 08
Loralee said...
rich merritt: the one I'm sick of is "game, set, match."
HA! How about "on the ropes," "drink the kool-aid" or "game-changer"!
Ain't it grand?
One$Earned said...
How does McCain achieve the 3.3%
chance of winning based upon the
polling? What's the path to 270 EV
for McCain/Palin?
I'd say he's closer to 1% than 3%.
Biden grilled by TV Newswoman. She must be auditioning for FOX
http://www.wftv.com/video/17790025/index.html
What I really question is the impact a candidate's visit in a state has on that state's numbers at this point in the race. Of course, when a candidate publicly announces that they're giving up completely on a state (ahem. MI.) it's a different matter, but if Obama visits Virginia and not Colorado I don't really think it has much of an effect at all, other than what the snippet on the evening news is.
Justin,
538 didn't project the 2004 race because it didn't exist back then. But I agree it will make a really good feature in 2012, etc.
I don't see any similarities in this race with those in 2000 and 2004. Even though those results were crashes, the plane that was the Democratic campaign had been going down like it was on fire. On this day in 2000, Bush led Gore by 7. It's amazing how Gore won the popular vote on election day. In 2004, Bush led Kerry consistently throughout October, yet won by just over 2 points. This means that in the last two elections, we saw a surge by the Democrats on election day. I see no reason why it should be the opposite this time.
I think Obama has sucked all the oxygen out of the room.
Justin said...
@Eric...I would say that is a good general consensus..however people feel the same about Kansas where I am. We even have a new indie doc coming out that is getting pretty good reviews...It's titled "Whats the matter with Kansas?"
Yeah. I know. Sebelius and Dorothy are from Kansas though. Of course, so is Bob Dole, right? The thing about Texas is it's so big. Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin are not all Cowboy Bible-Belt Neo-Con Bush lovers. It's kinda sad that that's our rep.
@eponymous
Ha this is true, forgot this was Nate's first go at the Presidential side....wait no this cannot be true! FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM is GOD! Nothing this beautiful and thoughtful could have at one point not existed. lol.
How much does just the passage of another day affect the win probability percentage?
no way this election is called before 8pm PST.
Anyone want to share their thoughts of Texas with me? I get the impression that generally the country thinks we're all a bunch of fools. Fair?
Yeah that's fair assessment, but for me it's mostly because I hate the Dallas Cowboys.
As far as late surges are concerned, I don't think voters as a group wake up one morning feeling sorry for a candidate and decide actually they are going to vote for him. My guess/suspicion/view is that late surges are based on ground game and organisation, and has the McCain campaign shown any ability to organise anything yet?
I posted this before, but it didn't appear... Can someone help a newbie? How does the Obama win percentage assume dependency between states? 3.3% chance of McCain win seems like it MUST be based on the assumption that state results are independent, which they certainly are not. If McCain flips an Obama-leaning state, it most likely happens because of events that will help him in other states as well. Consider the extreme example of perfect correlation between states: Obama could lead 90% in EVERY state, yet lose the election 10% of the time. What assumptions are made here?
Surely going to Arizona would be a mistake, and one that Obama and Axelrod won't make.
It might make Arizona tighter, but the McCain camp and media will play it as vindictive. It would go against the so far highly effective strategy of pulling their punches.
@Eric...
Yup I feel you on that one. I live in Wichita KS (largest city in the state however by no means the size of Dallas, Houston etc) and when you tell people your from KS they automatically picture the Wizard of Oz and wheat fields. Or if that person is a liberal they remember our idiotic State Board of Education ruling that Evolution shouldn't be taught in schools..that ruled that Evo and Creationism both had to be taught.
BTW Voted early yesterday in Wichita, KS for Obama!
This is what happens when you convince yourself the election was "stolen" from Kerry after Bush led the polling consistently in October and Nov.
That's a lovely bit of confirmation bias, inkstain. Look at the final results, then look at how many votes were suppressed, and the notion that the election was stolen is not at all absurd. We certainly KNOW it was stolen in 2000.
kirby96 said...
"3.3% chance of McCain win seems like it MUST be based on the assumption that state results are independent"
You're making it more complicated than it needs to be. Nate runs 10k simulations of election results. 3.3% of those simulations have McCain winning.
eponymous:
At this point the rallies are about energizing volunteers more than anything. Last night in ABQ, every speaker pushed voting early, and volunteering. There was a HUGE crew working the crowd to recruit new volunteers. It's taken for granted that "undecided" voters were not a significant component of the crowd. They just want to fire people up.
fivethirtyeight will be a highly
visible and sought after information
source in 2012.
@Zechaplunga
Unfortunatley the Media prob would spin it as a spit in the face but in all reality it shouldn't be done that wait. It's sad...just because a candidate is from that state means you can't campaign there?
Maybe McCain just hasn't gone to IL because that's not where the real America is...it's all Commmie country out there.....
You show Indiana as LEAN OBAMA.
But RCP shows it as a dead heat.
Why?
The meme going around right now is that McCain had a slightly better than recent day in the national polls. The mainstream media thinks that this great news ... for John McCain.
I personally believe that the MSM has been drinking the republican kool-aid, and is totally in the tank for McCain- he's played at this point. Barack has him on the ropes and under the bus. If there isn't a "Bradley-effect" type of game-changer soon, it's game, set, match, gentleman.
And oh yes, Maverick.
kirby96 said...
I posted this before, but it didn't appear... Can someone help a newbie? How does the Obama win percentage assume dependency between states? 3.3% chance of McCain win seems like it MUST be based on the assumption that state results are independent, which they certainly are not. If McCain flips an Obama-leaning state, it most likely happens because of events that will help him in other states as well. Consider the extreme example of perfect correlation between states: Obama could lead 90% in EVERY state, yet lose the election 10% of the time. What assumptions are made here?
Basically, this is your reason that McCain has as much as a 3.3% chance accoriding to Nate. Rising tide floats all boats. If the elction were held today, McCain's odds are probably close to 100,000 to 1. Certainly less than 1%. The reason it's a sbig as 3.3% is if McCain closes nationally, then many of these states would become toss-ups or fall into the McCain column.
re:
The Alaska governor will join Hank Williams Jr. at a rally for Republican presidential nominee John McCain at a Jeffersonville warehouse owned by Capstone Real Estate Inc.
-- I will never listen to Hank Jr the same way again.
re: Indiana.
I live in Australia. Our paper today ran an article about my hometown and county in Indiana, Vigo County and Terre Haute.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election-2008/obama-looking-good-in-bellwether-county-20081026-58zt.html
Indiana is definitely in the game.
got a lil to happy with my M's in Commie didn't I...the word must get me excited on a sub-conscious level.
Shoot, McCarthy's ghost is gonna be at my door in a minute
"You're making it more complicated than it needs to be. Nate runs 10k simulations of election results. 3.3% of those simulations have McCain winning."
But that to me assumes the fallacy that states are independent. Into the simulator you're punching in 52% Obama in FL, 53% Obama in OH, etc. When, 'in reality' if the 48% McCain hits in FL, it most likely means the 53% Obama in Ohio that your simulation assumes is no longer valid.
jnorthrop said...Nate runs 10k simulations of election results. 3.3% of those simulations have McCain winning.
What election results? 2004 election
results? Some speculative election
results? Some simulated election
results?
Simulations are based upon some
variables, what are the variables?
"Blogger donelson said...
You show Indiana as LEAN OBAMA.
But RCP shows it as a dead heat."
Well, it's REALLY slightly lean Obama (by 0.5%), and RCP has it as Obama +0.5....though with a lot of divergence.
If McCain hadn't had the faux Palin surge right after the Republican Convention and Palin speech this election would have already been called. The only reason to hope for the GOP is they saw their guy ahead not that long ago. This thing is over. If i had the liquidity I'd bet 1 to 9 at Intrade easy.
I think it is very interesting that taking Nate's numbers and doing some math I found out that the probability of McCain winning the Electoral Vote, given that he wins the Popular vote is only about 55% (262 of 475). If Obama should lose the popular vote there is still a good chance he gets to 270 or at least 269!
william said...
no way this election is called before 8pm PST.
11 ET
CA,WA,OR called
its over
donelson said...
"You show Indiana as LEAN OBAMA.
But RCP shows it as a dead heat.
Why?"
Different analysis of existing poll data.
Eric-
Thanks, I obviously haven't run any numbers, so that certainly could be the case. Hope so...
Thx,
Nate is not assuming states are independent- he has the whole model up under the FAQ. Rather than having somebody re-type what Nate describes there, why not just go and read it?
Eric said...
"Anyone want to share their thoughts of Texas with me? I get the impression that generally the country thinks we're all a bunch of fools. Fair?"
Having spent a whole lot 'o time in Texas, I think the easiest summary of the outside view of it comes from the commercials Texas used to promote that said "It's a different country down here". Meet the average Texan and they will go on and on about how they're the biggest state (because they don't think Alaska counts) and always fall back on "that's not the way we do things here in Texas".
That said, I really like Austin, Dallas, Ft. Worth and San Antonio (Houston, not so much). Areas such as Waco have a wonderful blend of old South and old West. El Paso has the Cattleman's Ranch nearby where I had the best steak I've ever had in my life!
@jqb and inkstain:
Wasn't the exit polling on election day in 2004 also wrong?
My understanding of RCP is that they cherry-pick their polls. Keep good McCain polls in longer than pro-Obama polls. If I am mistaking it for another pollster, please enlighten me.
Has Nate retrospectively applied his magnificento theories to the 2000 or 2004 election polls - ro what degree of accuracy would his 'model' have predicted the actual results?
#to
3.3% chance of McCain win seems like it MUST be based on the assumption that state results are independent, which they certainly are not. If McCain flips an Obama-leaning state, it most likely happens because of events that will help him in other states as well. Consider the extreme example of perfect correlation between states: Obama could lead 90% in EVERY state, yet lose the election 10% of the time.
Your statistical intuitions are wrong. Of course there is a possibility that some event will flip large numbers of voters to McCain, but there's also a possibility that some event will flip large numbers of voters to Obama. What's the net probabilistic effect of these two possibilities? Hint: it's not 10% in McCain's favor.
No win probability, regardless of how high or low, "MUST be based on the assumption that state results are independent" -- that's nonsense. McCain's win probability is so low because things stand so badly for him, and there's no reason to think that the chance of divine intervention weighs in his favor.
Since when is playing your opponents home state seen as 'rubbing salt in the wound?' Honestly, it makes absolutely not sense for anyone to say "He shouldn't be talking to Arizona voters, that's just rude to John McCain." Obama needs to hold an afternoon rally in Phoenix.
Of my family and friends, I have about 10 folks that vote Republican more often than Dem and have disclosed to me that they voted or are voting for Obama and so are their like-minded friends. I haven't heard the opposite once. Now, I'll admit they're more apt to tell me what I want to hear since they know I'm a big Obama supporter, but this is not normal. Other elctions this doesn't happen. This is a very diverse group. Men and women from 18 to 80 in Colorado, north Carolina, New York, Texas, and Michigan. Again, not just this group of 10, but their friends and family too. This ain't a conicidence. and, it's not cause I'm such a big supporter. It's because the Independents and Obamicans, similar to Reagan Democrats are going to hand Obama a landslide victory. I'm sure of it and i'm one who always assume the worst. not this time.
Anybdy have similar anecdotal evidence?
When are we going to see new polling data for Nevada?
I also think at this point in the game that putting effort into persuading undecideds will not yield the greatest return on investment. Its obvious they are waiting to flip a coin or whatever. Surely they have all the information they need to make a decision.
If Nate's model ends up being correct on election day the election could be called relatively early. Take all the states that are a shade of blue right now and take away IA, CO, NM, CA, NV, WA, and OR, (all prob Obama wins) and you still have 272 EV's
zane (@5:58), could you add something about Hail Mary's and ninth innings?
WTF is all this talk about going to Phoenix or Atlanta and it could possibly backfire???
I'm really not comprehending this whatsoever. If he has a chance to flip those states, why in the world would it be a bad idea? Who cares about rubbing it in McCain's face??? This isn't a freaking 3rd grade dodgeball game.
@skydog,
I agree. I was about to post the same short summary of the bug in hopes that Nate will see it or someone can bring it to his attention.
In the Scenario Analysis, McCain loses OH/FL, wins election 0 out of 8167 runs. But McCain loses FL in only approx 7500 runs. How can he lose in both OH and FL 8167 times when he loses in FL only 7500 times?
There is a bug in the Scenario Analysis!
In other news, the McCain/Palin campaign comes up with a brilliant strategy to make Palin look intelligent and informed: They pair her up with Elisabeth Hasselbeck!
For those of you concerned about the election being stolen: If you are a registered voter, don't let anyone or anything stop you from voting! Call the hotline # 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683) for advice before you go to vote or for help if you are turned away at your election location. When you go to vote, take good ID, your cell phone, note paper & pencil. And carry the hotline # with you. For more information on protecting your vote, check out this story:
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Maybe the McCain didn't mean to say that Sarah was going "rogue" but that she was wearing "rouge". It's all about the wardrobe/make up/hair style, folks.
Christina,
Are you lurking out there this
evening. If so, brush off the
keyboard and post. A fan after
reading a couple of your posts last
night.
Go Obama!
newsinOH said...
Eric said...
"Anyone want to share their thoughts of Texas with me? I get the impression that generally the country thinks we're all a bunch of fools. Fair?"
Having spent a whole lot 'o time in Texas, I think the easiest summary of the outside view of it comes from the commercials Texas used to promote that said "It's a different country down here". Meet the average Texan and they will go on and on about how they're the biggest state (because they don't think Alaska counts) and always fall back on "that's not the way we do things here in Texas".
That said, I really like Austin, Dallas, Ft. Worth and San Antonio (Houston, not so much). Areas such as Waco have a wonderful blend of old South and old West. El Paso has the Cattleman's Ranch nearby where I had the best steak I've ever had in my life!
Alright newsfromOH. I love Austin. Lived there about 8 years and headed back to Houston. Wife preferred Austin. I can understand the preference for other parts. One thing, Houston is the most metropolitan and down to earth of the bunch. Austin, god love it, is a little bipolar. Libs and Cons livin' in the same town. Houston is a workin' town, not the best place to visit.
@heather
I live in Santa Fe and have been looking for a McCain lawn sign to "souvenir". There are none to be seen anywhere!
Either:
1). Republicans are too frightened to put them out
2). The lawn signs have been souvenired already
3). There are no Republicans living here?
In addition to what MsMike said
Please discourage any of your fellow voters to not wear Obama shirts and other gear. I know people feel it is their right but I picture a problem with people being turned away...just wear a button if you must...than if you are confronted it is easy to take off and than put back on when leaving the polling place
Wasn't the exit polling on election day in 2004 also wrong?
That disparity has been explained. I don't accept that as evidence the election was stolen any more than Inkstain does. But Bush's lead in the polls before the election is irrelevant when actual election results were close enough for vote suppression to have made a difference.
Weird NFL game b/n NYG & PIT. My
apologies, off topic. A brain fart
.
@Loralee- it's late in the 9th inning of the 4th quarter, and McCain's back is against the wall. He's into the injury time with two outs, and he needs to pull out a hail mary from beyond the arc just to go into penalty shots.
@Justin
I overheard one television pundit say that the networks have collectively agreed to hold off calling the election early. Though most of them are making projections. NBC has now projected CO and VA to Obama putting him over the 270 EV mark.
Personally, I think we're going to see some surprises based on new democratic voter registration. A recent poster (can't remember if it was here); Kayenda, told of his 86 year old mother laying in a hospital bed in Atlanta requesting an absentee ballot saying she didn't want to miss this election.
Montana's Governor thinks his state has a chance to turn blue because Ron Paul is on the ballot.
GA? MT?
Another pundit on 'Race for the Wjite House claimed that if NC and VA go for Obama then we're looking at an avalanche.
I can only dream.
I say "NObama"!!! It is like vote "NO" on "Obama"
SkyDog said...
Yet again, I have to ask, how can "McCain loses OH/FL" happen 8167 times when McCain only loses FL 75% of the time? How?
It looks like there are now 100,000 emulations, not just 10,000.
Tomorrow:
Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV
McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA
Tuesday:
Obama ~ VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH
McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA
Wednesday:
Obama ~ FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Bill Clinton ~ FL
Palin ~ OH
Thursday:
Obama ~ FL
McCain ~ PA
Palin ~ PA
Friday:
McCain ~ OH
Saturday:
Palin ~ NC
Sunday:
Bill Clinton ~ NH
ATTENTION:
When is the Obama TV spot on - day/time/station.
I will try to watch on the net if our local Australian station doesn't carry it.
Sonia said...
WTF is all this talk about going to Phoenix or Atlanta and it could possibly backfire???
I'm really not comprehending this whatsoever. If he has a chance to flip those states, why in the world would it be a bad idea? Who cares about rubbing it in McCain's face??? This isn't a freaking 3rd grade dodgeball game.
You're right. It's a little like passing in a playoff game when you're up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Perhaps, a little unnecessary. Is Arizona a potential tipping point? NO! Is it possible that the bored as hell, gotta have something interesting to share, 12 hour news cycle press, could come up with a Obama is so cock-sure he headed to Phoenix, rubbing it in McCain's face backlash. Yeah, it's very possible. Probably more risk than reward. But, then so is doing a 30-minute infomerical and SNL and it sounds like he 's going all offense all the time, Spurrier style.
Maybe it is a "freaking 3rd grade dodgeball game", sonia - and maybe that's why this guy will be the next prez of the (57) United States. 'O' for a third term of 'W'!
@ zane -- 10.0!
1) The exit polls that showed Kerry leading where he didn't win were with partial results. No network makes projection without full day's exit polls. Often the results change during the day - different types of voters go to the polls at different times of the day
2) Absolutely Obama should go nowhere near Arizona. It would not go down well with the press and undecided voters. It also takes time away from other states. The idea that Arizona will be the deciding state is not determined by any data.
The time for him to have gone would have been straight from Denver (they day Palin was announced). A huge crowd then would have made sense. Now, no way.
I'm a bit mystified why the model has NM moving to "safe" Obama today just because of a poll in neighbouring AZ from an unknown pollster, while a stand-out result for Obama in NH from a highly-rated pollster seems to have had relatively little impact.
Given that NM and NH both seem to be moving out of reach, I'd be interested to hear Nate comment on his strategic advice to McCain - having already ruled out PA as quixotic, does he now think the same also applies to NM and NH?
I have to say that the only strategy I can see left for McCain is to try to hold Obama to Kerry +NM, IA (264 EV). This means campaigning very hard in VA, CO, FL, OH, NV. These would be the 5 states to which I'd devote the lion's share of my resources if I were McCain, with just a little left over for IN, MO and NC and a lot of praying that something happens to swing the polls his way in the closing week.
Davy,
Schweitzer is the man!!!
Sonia -
Unfortunately I think it is a third grade dodgeball game. People vote emotionally.
If he campaigns in AZ it will be spun by the media as a vindictive attempt to not only beat McCain, but destroy him.
He doesn't need AZ badly enough to tip the cost-benefit analysis.
Was out canvassing for Obama in northern New Mexico today. There were two trainings going on and about 30 canvassers in and out. We drove by the McCain office on the way to our canvass area. It was closed up. This is why we cannot lose this election this time. CANNOT
Since when is playing your opponents home state seen as 'rubbing salt in the wound?' Honestly, it makes absolutely not sense for anyone to say "He shouldn't be talking to Arizona voters, that's just rude to John McCain." Obama needs to hold an afternoon rally in Phoenix.
Indeed. Gore losing Tennessee sure wasn't held against Bush. The notion is utterly idiotic.
Speaking of Obama's 30 minutes of air-time...Am I the only one who wishes he really wouldn't do this...you're already up...why allow for 30 minutes of potentional gaffes or the view that the public gets a lil freaked out cause you are EVERYWHERE they flip to on the tv
This isn't exactly earth shattering analysis, but it seems that whenever news cycles are dominated by distractions, McCain always benefits... at least in the national polls. But the thing that's become apparent in the last couple of days, is that it doesn't seem to matter if it's connected McCain or Mooseburger, or that these distractions reflect badly on their campaign. In fact, I'm starting to believe the B-Hoax story has hurt Obama. How else do you explain it not hurting McCain, other than people not paying attention to the actual story that both she and the right-wing media have been outed as liars? Not to mention McCain aides pushing the story.
eric,
Coming from Cleveland for me to say Houston's weather is tough is something. Seriously, though, the humidity is like walking into a wall. The concrete all around just amplifies it. The thunderstorms are Biblical.
The hilarious thing is that I'm used to going through metal detectors in courts. In Houston, I always had to plan plenty of extra time as multiple people would have to go through several times, first to take off their hats (with the metallic emblazoned band), then to take off their boots (similar embellishment), then to take off their belts (with the dinner plate buckles). Few of them had guns, luckily. Just a regional thing.
They won't formally call it until he gets to 270, and he can't realistically do that without the west coast.
If he wins VL, VA, NC, MO and IN, he can hit 279 before any of the southwest or western polls close.
If he campaigns in AZ it will be spun by the media as a vindictive attempt to not only beat McCain, but destroy him.
Nice concern trolling, but it's dumb.
Has John McCain ever shown up at a rally WITHOUT his wife standing dutifully by his side with that awkward grin on her face?
I love how Michelle Obama is on the campaign trail speaking to rallies on her own. She is not a politician, but has stepped up to embrace her role in the campaign. You go 'head on sister!
@obsessed- Nat is still listing the EV tie as 25 out of ten-thousand (not 100,000), so SkyDog's point is quite valid. I'd guess that Nate pooched the code on collecting different scenarios from the runs on the model. A little troublesome, but I still have faith in the model's state-by-state predictions.
jqb said...
Wasn't the exit polling on election day in 2004 also wrong?
That disparity has been explained. I don't accept that as evidence the election was stolen any more than Inkstain does. But Bush's lead in the polls before the election is irrelevant when actual election results were close enough for vote suppression to have made a difference.
Bush "deserved" to win in 2004, given his lead in the popular vote. That said, I believe Ken Blackwell stole the election in Ohio and should be in prison.
"Your statistical intuitions are wrong. Of course there is a possibility that some event will flip large numbers of voters to McCain, but there's also a possibility that some event will flip large numbers of voters to Obama. What's the net probabilistic effect of these two possibilities? Hint: it's not 10% in McCain's favor."
You're getting the the jist of my point: the 'real' (unknown)probability of a McCain win is an event that turns many voters to him. While there might be an equal probability of such an event helping Obama, it would help far less since he already is closer to his support 'ceiling'. Perhaps the percentages here are fine, but it seems to me that the expected impact of a major 'Pro-McCain' event is much higher than a 'Pro-Obama' event. Of course, there's only a week left, so the time element may be the REAL variable working against McCain. Six weeks ago, my intuitions may have been spot on.
JQB
That was because the 2000 election was too close to call and Tennessee had been considered a battleground all along.
And reality bore that out - had Bush not won TN, he would lost.
No way the same thing happens with AZ in 2008.
Trust us on this. It would backlash.
Know what's "played?" The word "meme." It seems to be everywhere lately. Along with "in the tank," "under the bus" and the phrase that dare not write its name...that's right 538ers.
Oh I like "under the bus." Let's use it in a sentence:
Sarah Palin has thrown John McCain under the bus for her own political gain!
jwhit said...
ATTENTION:
When is the Obama TV spot on - day/time/station.
8PM ET/PT 7PM CT/MT
ON CBS,NBC,FOX,ABC(?),CNN
Blogger MoralMajoraty said...
I say "NObama"!!! It is like vote "NO" on "Obama"
One has to be dumb enough to say it, but to think it needs to be explained ... not to mention not being able to spell "majority" ...
McCain scrapes the bottom of the barrel for his supporters.
--They won't formally call it until he gets to 270, and he can't realistically do that without the west coast.
If he wins VL, VA, NC, MO and IN, he can hit 279 before any of the southwest or western polls close.--
That's assuming they are called within an hour or two of polls closing. Some or all might be close and have to wait a while.
Meantime, for bragging rights, my guess is Fox makes the call first. It's their style. They'll run a big ad 2 days later and brag about it.
Trust us on this.
There is no more idiotic phrase than that.
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