With fewer than ten days to go until the election, John McCain is another day older and deeper in the polls:
It is hard to find any trend at all at the national level, although Barack Obama's position improved has incrementally in a couple of the national trackers. Indeed, our model now perceives that the popular vote has been flat for roughly the past two weeks. It seems almost as though voters made their collective decision after the second presidential debate on October 7 -- perhaps Obama's clearest win of the series -- and decided on behalf of the Democrat.
Meanwhile, John McCain is running into some further problems at the state level. In Colorado, a Rocky Mountain News poll now has Barack Obama 12 points ahead; McCain had led by 3 in the RMN poll in August. Obama also leads in two polls out of Ohio; PPP has him ahead by 7, and the University of Cincinnati / Ohio Newspapers Poll, which had shown him trailing by 2 earlier this month, now shows him ahead by 3.
Obama, at least, does not look to be competitive in South Dakota or Arkansas. It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he'd end up if he wins all the states where we currently have him favored, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Obama would have to win West Virginia to break the 400 barrier, and I don't see that happening; the other long shot is Arizona, which hasn't been polled in some time.
John McCain's win percentage is now 4.3 percent, down from 5.1 percent yesterday.
10.25.2008
Today's Polls, 10/25
@ 7:18 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
494 comments
Go Obama!
First!. This is great news for... me!
er.... Second! Still mostly good news for me
top five?
Even though Obama has a big lead, I still don't see how he can win. Several states will just flip McCain's way, it seems. The polling is volitile this election cycle. I sure hope Obama can pull this off so I can hear Sean Hannity's whining the day after the election. Sean Hannity needs his head examined.
Colorado is looking solid!
Nate - May I humbly suggest that you refrain from giving further advice to McCain/Palin, unless you want themto win?
Also, what do you, as a statistician, think are the real odds (as a betting man, say) for a McCain win right now? Assuming he continues to run his campaign without taking your advice?
Personally I'm betting on 375 - just exactly where the map has him right now. I've been looking at that configuration firming up for a couple weeks now.
I think it's officially Silly with a capital S for anyone (lookin' at you, MSNBC) to have NJ as anything but solid Dem (let alone Colorado and Penn as "tossups").
The only way Obama could lose this would be by kissing Bush during his half-hour special next week.
Speaking of head examinations, Mark Levin needs one too. Wow, this guy is just bad!!
Just got back from canvassing in Colorado and home to nothing but good news for Obama! Not too much longer to hold on and hopefully we'll really rock the vote this time and show George W. Bush just what a mandate really is.
http://xkcd.com/493/
Time's running out for JMac.
Nice reference to 16 tons at the beginning there... ;-)
Nate,
Do the models expect that people who are undecided at this point are less likely to vote than those who were undecided a month out? Maybe trends are even more even than they seem!
jt
This is great news! ... For MATT DRUDGE!
i am betting that there will be some good music at the inaugural party
Nov. 4th can't come soon enough....
C-SPAN2's BookTV has covered two pollster books today. David Moore's "Opinion Makers" and Blake/Hinckley's "Follow the Leader"
Both were very informative, although I'd guess both tilted a bit to the left (Moore was making anti-war points, Blake/Hinckley, interviewed in 1992, were trying hard to be objective).
It made me want you to address the issue if late-game pollster changes-of-model which changed results for one candidate (the Republican) or the other became media stories about changes in the poll results.
Blake/Hinckley said that happened in 1992, and George HW Bush doing "better" (as a result of the model change) became a headline story in the major (allegedly liberal) press.
The press loves a good story, and a tight race is a good story. Such stories sell papers.
The gap in the polls is crazy. I'd be more comfortable with a closer race. Desperate people do desperate things.
What are the odds where Obama loses Colorado, New Mexico, wins Florida, yet somehow manages to tie Minnesota?
Given today's news, I'd say very unlikely.
The McCain/Palin campaign will be eating itself these next 10 days.
Both will be concerned with damage control on their reputation so it will be very difficult for them to speak as one.
Who do you think will be in control of the Republican party at the end of this, the evangelicals, the fiscal conservatives, or ... Elvis?
Nate:
News for you.
AZ poll out today has Obama WITHIN FOUR!!!!
And apparently 2nd poll due out tomorrow has the same results.
Data is up at Daily Kos.
Concern Troll: Would you stop posting the same silly comment over and over.
And learn to spell "volatile" -- we might take you more seriously if you did.
You should add the "Obama 440+" scenario to the mix.
From 'Ask Chuck Todd' on Newsvine:
Chuck: Do you think Five-Thirty-Eight is making a good call by saying Obama has an 82.5% chance of now winning, as well as a 33% chance of gaining more than 375 electoral votes?
#1.3 - Thu Oct 9, 2008 4:02 AM PDT
Chuck Todd
My concern about this kind of analysis is that it is based on a lot of bad polls. He's doing great work but the data he's using is flawed; not his fault per se but it is what it is.
WHOA! NERD FIGHT!
I meant to say 400+.
And now this news cycle is being dominated by "Palin goes rogue" talk, and there's an obvious circular firing squad forming on the Rethug side. How does McCain snap this string of brutal news cycles? Every day brings another avalanche of bad news.
frank,
I think it will be Huckabee and a bit of Ron Paul. (If they keep the spirit of Elvis on their side of course). These are the former candidates who built up their followers themselves.
Blogger Paul said...
http://xkcd.com/493/
Um... I'll just take a seat over there, and be quiet, thanks.
On the politics front, I don't really see how Obama won't at least squeek out 273. The 'X days is a lifetime in politics' only works if you are actually able to capitalize on the time. McFailin haven't been able to, and now with people saying that the Bull Moose Killer is 'going rogue', I don't know how many more chances they'll get
Davy said...
From 'Ask Chuck Todd' on Newsvine:
Chuck: Do you think Five-Thirty-Eight is making a good call by saying Obama has an 82.5% chance of now winning, as well as a 33% chance of gaining more than 375 electoral votes?
#1.3 - Thu Oct 9, 2008 4:02 AM PDT
Chuck Todd
My concern about this kind of analysis is that it is based on a lot of bad polls. He's doing great work but the data he's using is flawed; not his fault per se but it is what it is.
WHOA! NERD FIGHT!
I agree with Chuck Todd. However, the best traders tend to use technical analysis on Wall Street and with stocks and commodities. They make a fortune, though data doesn't tell the whole story. Bill James, Theo Epstein, Billy beane, they all use sabremetrics and get fantastic results. Sabremetrics is not the end all be all, but it's extremely valuable. The polls are very unlikely to all be crap. I personally believe the 5.1% chance Nate gives McCain is way too high right now. That being said, I trust nate more than Chuck with regards to this. to put it another way, I believe I can project this kind of thing better than 99.9% or more of the folks out there. I think I have a better grasp of this election than Chuck Todd. I think Nate Silver has a better grasp than I do.
From Kos:
Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 04:23:38 PM PDT
Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they've hinted at similar results.
>>Hayford Peirce said...
Concern Troll: Would you stop posting the same silly comment over and over.
And learn to spell "volatile" -- we might take you more seriously if you did.
____________________________________
I'm sorry! It's just that the only elections I have paid attention to - 2000, 2004-- have been bitter defeats for me. Even though I am probably on the winning side this time, I just can't help thinking something will go wrong.
gayithacan said...
Nate:
News for you.
AZ poll out today has Obama WITHIN FOUR!!!!
And apparently 2nd poll due out tomorrow has the same results.
Data is up at Daily Kos.
What Arizona poll ???
Would all you people who are knocking Nate for his excellent New York Post article please knock it off and spend thirty seconds actually *thinking*?
A.) Do you really believe that the McPalin people are going to follow his advice?
B.) The first part of his advice is: Pick up 6 points in the national polls. This is akin to giving advice to the Polish Army in September, 1939: first you stop the German Army. Great advice -- if it can be done.
C.) For Nate to take money from the New York Post is like this site taking money from McPalin for ads running here: it's great work if you can get it! Where else can you get your enemies to put money in your pocket?
Keep up the great work, Nate!
Concern Troll: Would you stop posting the same silly comment over and over.
And learn to spell "volatile" -- we might take you more seriously if you did.
Well, that and not calling himself "ConcernTroll"...lol
Gah ... I see this right after posting on the last topic. =)
Apologies for the repost:
Nate,
How do your strategy suggestions fit with the apparent unwillingness to give up the fear-based, divisive tactics the McCain-Palin team has been using over the last 3+ weeks?
Will that tactic play better in CO, NV, and NM than in PA, or is it just a matter of him starting so much farther behind in PA?
I mean, Colorado obviously has its share of right-wing douchenozzles, so maybe this bullshit actually plays better there than in PA. That wasn't my first hunch, though, so I'm wondering what you think about it.
By the way, I'm a little surprised that no one has pointed out the obvious about Ashley Todd: She's Exhibit A for why you DON'T STOKE RACISM AND FEAR. A solid 1-2% of the population is schizophrenic (as in paranoid delusions, megalomania, etc. -- not multiple personality disorder, which is something completely different). Therefore, when you have a crowd of, say, 5,000 people, you also have a solid 25 to 100 people who are out of their fucking minds, and they can come to some seriously fucked up conclusions when you deliberately provoke their fears (terrorist! traitor! socialist! communist!).
Eventually, one of these whackjobs is virtually guaranteed to do something DESPERATE AND VIOLENT.
Ashley Todd did.
And we're all really, really fucking lucky that she "merely" mutilated her own face instead of, say, making a bomb or getting a gun.
Actually, no -- we haven't been that lucky, have we? Let's ask the chairman of the Democratic Party in Arkansas.
So, McCain, are you a SOCIOPATH who actually wants this shit to happen? Or are you a COWARD who won't stand up for what's right?
It's one or the other, asshole. If you ever loved this country at all, you need to stop this shit right. If not, then it's increasingly clear how you mean to "follow Bin Laden to the gates of Hell" -- you're going to be his roommate, you fucking traitor.
There's no reasonable path to victory for McCain. None. Even under the craziest scenario, where all of the polls are hyperinflated for Obama and terribly wrong, you'd still likely have a scenario where Obama wins Kerry states + New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada= 269 and victory for Obama. I suppose it's possible that with a scenario where all of the polls are inflated for Obama, he could only win Kerry states + Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, but lose New Hampshire. Chances are probably 1000 to 1 or more. I think McCain probably has less than a 2% chance to win right now. i think Nate would say the same if he didn't have to only go by the numbers. I'd love for him to post his odds. It would undercut his math being valuable in the future so I understand why he wouldn't do that.
Early voters are like independents: It's a demographic Republicans are used to winning, and one that they must win decisively to have a chance.
Obama even in early voters = electoral landslide.
I agree with the posts that ask you to refrain from giving advice to McCain. His campaign has shown suicidal tendencies for months, from choosing Sarah Palin to wasting time and money in states he can't win. Why would you want to help him become prudent in the last ten days?
You want to guard, Nate, against doing things that harm just because doing them makes you better known, or because you are flattered by the attention
Arlan Cohen
Nate,
Where did the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll go from PA? It's on Today's Polls but not the other list. Anyway, um, Nate?
"I agree with the posts that ask you to refrain from giving advice to McCain."
I'm getting tired of this ethos that people who would prefer Obama to win are honor-bound to act like members of his campaign.
I'm a political junkie first, a journalist second and an Obama supporter third. I'm not being paid to work for his campaign, nor would I choose to volunteer for it.
I imagine Nate feels the same way.
John McCain's got him right where he wants him!
It is nice to see the McCain campaign wasting resources and putting them into Nate's pocket by advertising here, but I scratch my head at both the strategy and the ads themselves.
The last couple of days, the ads have featured Obama's logo. That's the equivalent of running a Coke ad and only showing Pepsi logos. My initial thought upon seeing the ads is Obama. Subconsciously, I think it just reinforces brand Obama.
Just something I've thought about reading fivethirtyeight recently.
Trivia: Who was the last presidential candidate to LOSE his home state?
Time's running out. Every news cycle now is 10-20% of the remaining time. Even for a candidate that loves winning news cycles, McCain's opportunities are limited. Every day John doesn't land that major game-changing blow is now a huge win for Obama.
Bela,
Yeah, Huckabee and Ron Paul both have good organizations. Can they coexist in power? Not knowing a lot about the details, I would think Paul is more appealing to the Buckley crowd. Not sure they will have much of a voice though.
Good post, very COY post.
That's not really reaching that far back, kid g :)
Though "home state" can mean a lot of things.
Polling showing Arizona in single digits really sucks for McCain (well, most things really suck for McCain about now, but only being up 4 in his home state has to be especially painful).
Are there any states left where McCain is out-performing Bush? Maybe Utah?
@kid g:
Al Gore
Who was the last incumbent presidential candidate to lose his home state?
Gore.
Trivia: Who was the last presidential candidate to LOSE his home state?
Gore
The 7% other/didn't vote for pres among the early voter subset (which of course has a higher MOE) might indicate major anti-immirgration anger among the GOP base in Arizona which might cost McCain the state.
This is exactly the position McCain wants to be in!
It seems the McCain camp has decided the only way it can win is with Pennsylvania.
As one born and raised in PA, I find it a stretch, given the dynamics of the state. Philly and Pittsburgh will be very difficult to overcome.
It's a hail mary pass, and one I don't think is a bad move.
Last incumbent to lose his home state was Hoover (1932) who lost both Iowa and California (he was considered to be from both states).
"Palin goes rogue"
OR
"Palin goes rouge"???
That poll may well send McCain over the edge...
OK, that last one was stupid. Here's a better one:
Who was the last WINNING presidential candidate to lose the state that he was born in?
Any chance Joe will be on SNL tonight?
re: chrish60's link
"We on FR are the elite thinkers of our time. "
No, seriously. Someone there said that.
As bad as 538's groupthink has been at times, that one had me rolling around laughing.
Where's GHWB supposed to be from CT or TX?
this story could bury Jmac,http://www.nationinstitute.org/p/schanberg09182008pt1
Who was the last WINNING presidential candidate to lose the state that he was born in?
I'll guess Nixon.
We on FR are the elite thinkers of our time. Do not assume the masses are as well informed as we are.
HAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!
I'm hurting myself, I can't read them....
RealJoe:
What poll?
It's the LEAD STORY over at Daily Kos.
And an ASU Poll scheduled for release tomorrow apparently shows the same thing.
I'm rooting for PALIN/WURZELBACHER as 2012 GOP nominees!
I noticed in the last thread that the PeteKent and Ass Rider sockpuppets are still flame warring and cluttering up the discourse. Can we do something about this? It's gone way beyond amusing.
Oops...'born in'? Not sure about that one.
No, seriously. Someone there said that.
I didn't see your comment, I had the same independent reaction :D
I couldn't read another bit of it.
More great news for JOHN McCAIN!! I do think that Obama will win North Carolina...it will be close, but I think he is so organized in the parts of the state where he is likely to get the most votes. I have had 3 calls from people lining me up to canvas here, so they are definitely on top of things. We got a genuinely stupid robocall for McCain from ROMAN GABRIEL! Unless you are 55+ AND were a football fan of NC State eons ago, then you will not know or care who he is. My husband had heard of him, but I had not. About 1 million have voted early and still very weighted toward Democrats. Some absentee for military that will be mostly McCain, but not enough to make up for the other.
Freeper reaction to Dick Morris article in New York Post (indirectly references Nate's article)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115225/posts
frank,
probably not, but i think the (much needed) reform of the GOP will come from that corner. Up till now the pundits keep repeating that Palin is the future of the GOP. I think that is a huge mistake.
Someone like Huckabee (not necessarily himself) will be much more likely to sway the people into trusting the republican party again.
Real leaders are never parachuted by party elders into their positions (that was the problem of Kerry).
They basically need someone who can talk to Colbert and not seem like a total moron.
@emonkari
Gore lost Tennessee in 2000
"I couldn't read another bit of it."
Freerepublic.com (and I'm sure it has a leftist equivalent) reminds me of abovetopsecret.com
When I read there, I am alternately amused, afraid, and sad for the obviously mentally ill people that post there.
Kos says Arizona may now be in play.
Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they've hinted at similar results.
Here's a hint: There's a wikipedia page with the answer : )
Frank said...
Bela,
Yeah, Huckabee and Ron Paul both have good organizations. Can they coexist in power? Not knowing a lot about the details, I would think Paul is more appealing to the Buckley crowd. Not sure they will have much of a voice though.
Ron Paul's charisma quotient = Howard Dean's = ZERO
For this reason Ron PAul is irrelevant as a national candidate. you could put lipstick on the Huckabee pig and make him more palatable. I'd still say that party is a niche party. Libertarians/Fiscal Cons and social Cons would have to merge as one party to compete. They'd just have to adjust their platform to meet in the middle.
"Are there any states left where McCain is out-performing Bush? Maybe Utah?"
Somebody posted yesterday or the day before that Obama was outperforming Kerry in every single state.
In Utah, for example, Kerry only won 26% of the vote. Nate's projecting Obama to outperform that by 10 points (which actually just about matches Obama's national lead over Kerry).
@Matthew
GWHBush
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
Who was the last WINNING presidential candidate to lose the state that he was born in?
W. was born in CT, right?
"For this reason Ron PAul is irrelevant as a national candidate."
That, and the fact that people who think libertarianism could be applied to the modern world are batshit crazy.
@Joseph
The crackpot POW story. About as believable as the birth certificate lawsuit nonsense.
Confine yourself to facts here. Or you will be consigned to the dustbin with PeteKent and MuleRider.
no, it's GW Bush, aka Dubya
Kelly said...
Who was the last WINNING presidential candidate to lose the state that he was born in?
W. was born in CT, right?,
Win!
More interestingly, the previous person to win the presidency without winning his birthstate was Lincoln, who lost Kentucky.
I'm a moderate republican woman for Obama, and I wish people would stop calling republicans names on this forum. We all vote in the best interests of this country in every election cycle. I detest Palin's hate-mongering, and it doesn't become democrats any better.
That being said, I'm as nervous as anyone here about this election. I've been rooting for obama all year, and I hope the polls are even half right!
Here's a hint: There's a wikipedia page with the answer : )
Of course, thats cheating. =^)
Maybe McCain is doing better than Bush in Tennessee and Kentucky?
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
I need some rest:
GHWB also lost Massachusetts, but before THEM it was Lincoln!
WOOOHOOO!!!
GOBAMA!!!
Only concern now is the voter suppression movement and the 5000 troops trained in urban warfare that Bush has sitting in GA.
Inkstain,
The libertarian ideal that we could hve a tiny government with tiny taxes and our isolation separating us from other countries by two oceans makes us safer asa country than we may believe has some merit. Their ideal gains a lot of traction whenver it's presented properly. If I was given the choice to vote Libertarian or Neo-Con and those were my only two options, I'd vote Libertarian.
I think that the model should be called PEROT for Political Expected Results Optimization Tool. Thus, it would have the same naming convention of your previous model, PECOTA, which was also based on someones surname.
Thanks for your statistical analysis. It's always encouraging to see someone take a new approach to common issues.
McCain would lose Germany if they could vote (he was born there).
Not sure if this has been posted today. I woke up this morning to be pleasantly surprised by the headlines of my local paper, the Houston Chronicle. It has a story showing that Obama is leading in Harris County as the first Democrat since LBJ. Anyways, it's showing a 7 point lead here. Here's the link if you want to check it out. I would have posted it earlier, but I've been away from the computer all day.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6077400.html
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
Not that it matters, McCain and Palin are going to steal the election!!!!!! HAHAHAHA
LONG LIVE THE PALIN DYNASTY
Did McCain move to Arizona because A) that's where cindy and her money were or
B) Charles Keating told him he could buy him a slot in the House of Representatives if he pretended he was from there.
I don't know the answer. I'll also acknowledge that no, Hillary is not from NY.
"The libertarian ideal that we could hve a tiny government with tiny taxes and our isolation separating us from other countries by two oceans makes us safer asa country than we may believe has some merit. Their ideal gains a lot of traction whenver it's presented properly. If I was given the choice to vote Libertarian or Neo-Con and those were my only two options, I'd vote Libertarian."
I'd vote Neocon in a heartbeat in that situation.
The Libertarian philosophy is the perfect government for an idealized world in which we are still an 18th century country with 18th century problems and needs.
At least the Neocons were a misread of the 21st century, not a semi-accurate read of the 18th.
Gore lost Tennessee his home state.
An insteresting question on Hardball earlier this week: "When was the last time the Republican Party won a presidential election without a Nixon or a Bush on the ticket?"
Brian said...
Not sure if this has been posted today. I woke up this morning to be pleasantly surprised by the headlines of my local paper, the Houston Chronicle. It has a story showing that Obama is leading in Harris County as the first Democrat since LBJ. Anyways, it's showing a 7 point lead here. Here's the link if you want to check it out. I would have posted it earlier, but I've been away from the computer all day.
Very good, I'm from here too. Bill didn't win Harris County either time?! WOW! I would've thought he won Harris County in 1996
hoover
EmonOkari said...
An insteresting question on Hardball earlier this week: "When was the last time the Republican Party won a presidential election without a Nixon or a Bush on the ticket?"
1928
and the last time the Republican ticket lacked a Dole or Bush was 1972
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
Not that it matters, McCain and Palin are going to steal the election!!!!!! HAHAHAHA
LONG LIVE THE PALIN DYNASTY
More interestingly, the previous person to win the presidency without winning his birthstate was Lincoln, who lost Kentucky.
Well, it is fortunate that Obama will win both his fake birthplace of Hawaii (where Nate has him up 31%) and his real birthplace of Kenya (where The Economist has him up 94%)....
The only states Kerry was doing better in were Massachusetts, Arkansas, and Alabama.
Holy crap I'm psychic.
I was running through some good scenarios for Obama and thought that if today he polled a +7 in Ohio, got another good poll in PA, got a good poll in CO and a couple others (no NH and VA like my thoughts had tho) that McCain's numbers would drop to around 4.3-4.4%. Mind you this was running through my head at around 5:00 PM, well before this got posted.
I think might have a psycological link to your website, Nate, having developed it from visiting your site so much. Hmmm.
Oh, and Arizona.
eric said...
Very good, I'm from here too. Bill didn't win Harris County either time?! WOW! I would've thought he won Harris County in 1996
I thought the same thing. Figured Clinton would have won here in the past. This is my second Presidential election living in Houston, so I didn't really know the voting history here until I read that story. Anyways, I was happy to read it. By the way, the Houston Chronicle already endorsed Obama. :)
InkStain said...
"The libertarian ideal that we could hve a tiny government with tiny taxes and our isolation separating us from other countries by two oceans makes us safer asa country than we may believe has some merit. Their ideal gains a lot of traction whenver it's presented properly. If I was given the choice to vote Libertarian or Neo-Con and those were my only two options, I'd vote Libertarian."
I'd vote Neocon in a heartbeat in that situation.
The Libertarian philosophy is the perfect government for an idealized world in which we are still an 18th century country with 18th century problems and needs.
At least the Neocons were a misread of the 21st century, not a semi-accurate read of the 18th.
We don't need to have a long, drawn out discussion about this, but let's suffice it to say a Libertarian Prez would create gridlock in COngress, where the only things that would pass would probably be good for the country. Two things would definitely be implemented, we'd be less hawkish and pay lower taxes. Things like education, energy, helath care would be all screwed up, but we'd be a lot better off than we are with Neo-Con rule IMO.
"Well, it is fortunate that Obama will win both his fake birthplace of Hawaii (where Nate has him up 31%) and his real birthplace of Kenya (where The Economist has him up 94%)...."
How's McCain doing in Panama?
Re the new AZ polls, showing a close race:
AZ has been nudging towards the blue for some time. If Gore had campaigned in AZ, he could have made it much closer and perhaps have won (Clinton won AZ in '96). Although I can understand Obama's scruples about rubbing McCain's face in a landslide win that includes his home state, I think it's more important that the ethos of the state be altered so that a Democratic party culture becomes more normative and pervasive. Gov. Janet Napolitano's Obama-like competence and intelligence stand in stark contrast to the good-old-boy Republicanism that has controlled the state for so long, and the downfall of GOP politicians like Rick Renzi and J. D. Hayworth could mean that Arizona is beginning to catch on. McCain has shown himself in this campaign to be another reactionary politician in the same line, the opposite of a maverick; he and such dreadful Arizona politicians as Sheriff Joe Arpaio need to be ushered out pronto. An Obama win in AZ would hasten the process.
Kelly said...
More interestingly, the previous person to win the presidency without winning his birthstate was Lincoln, who lost Kentucky.
Well, it is fortunate that Obama will win both his fake birthplace of Hawaii (where Nate has him up 31%) and his real birthplace of Kenya (where The Economist has him up 94%)....
I'm going to envision as a nice person, and this as snark.
If 'Hayford Peirce' is the actual Hayford Peirce, just let me say how much I enjoyed NAPOLEON DISENTIMED.
Back to lurking.
RE: trivia ?
Ahh, That's right. I just usually associate Bush with Texas. Flat and smells like cowshit.
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
Not that it matters, McCain and Palin are going to steal the election!!!!!! HAHAHAHA
LONG LIVE THE PALIN DYNASTY
"Ahh, That's right. I just usually associate Bush with Texas."
Karl Rove is the greatest campaign manager of all time.
He sold a Connecticut-born, old-money, ex-Yale cheerleader as the tough one, and a decorated war hero as a weak pansy.
Stepping aside how I feel about who won, I just can't help but applaud that bit of branding.
Nate, I hope they paid you beaucoup bucks for advising Mc. Had to be a painful task to do and I'm sure they won't listen to it all or, if they do listen to it, they'll change their minds by Wed. anyway.
Sorry if this got a lot of play earlier, I haven't seen it on here. Biden sat for probably THE most bizarre interview ever with some nutball out of an ABC affiliate in FL. I think she got her questions from SNL. Biden is great altho I seriously believe he began to wonder if it was some huge prank.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW_wQgWviZ8
How's McCain doing in Panama?
Down 58 points. But he has them right where he wants them!
Kid G, total snark.
I'm confident in the ability of the republicans to steal the election. =) They did it in 00 and 04, and all you libs cried but were powerless! Hahaha!!!
Every day that McCain doesn't gain, is another day that he loses. The clock is ticking...10 days!!!
Some Terrorists are More Terrorists than Others
Omet said...
I think that the model should be called PEROT for Political Expected Results Optimization Tool. Thus, it would have the same naming convention of your previous model, PECOTA, which was also based on someones surname.
Heh. Not bad. =)
My "Name That Model!" suggestions are relentlessly cheesy:
ELECTORS
Empircal
Longitudinal
Estimation of
Corrected
Turnout
Outcome by
Repeated
Simulations
VOTES
Voting
Outcome and
Turnout
Estimated by
Simulation
... and, for true name pimping:
ELECTIONS
Empirical
Longitudinal
Estimation of
Corrected
Turnout
Index,
Operated by
Nate
Silver
Yeah. Those are really tring*.
* My word of the day! Woot!
Eric, you stated numerous erroneous pieces of info. However, the most egregious is the statement that McCain was born in Germany. He was born in the Panama Canal Zone.
Wikipedia and google can be your friends, mate.
DAMN.
McCain is in big trouble if it is in play
Kos just posted a poll from Myers Research and Grove Institute showing McCain up 44-40 in Likely voters in AZ and Obama up 47-46 in early voters. Not sure about the polling outfit but.... wow!
Point of interest: Obama was born in Kansas. It's expected to go for McCain. But I can only hope I'm wrong!
You libs are so ignorant. McCain will steal the election just like Bush. AND YOU ARE POWERLESS TO STOP HIM!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!
"Obama was born in Kansas."
No, he wasn't. His birth certificate clearly states Hawaii. He was raised in Kansas.
HUNDRED AND THIRTYFIRST!!!
Presidential cand's who lost home states
Here's the link for the trivia above.
ES&S Touch-Screen Votes Now Flipping Democratic Votes To Republican... Obama/DNC Attorneys Still AWOL
State After State, ES&S iVotronics Are Flipping Democratic Votes to Republican.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6559
HAHAHAHAHA
MCCAIN STEALING VOTES IS GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!!!
Davy said...
Point of interest: Obama was born in Kansas. It's expected to go for McCain. But I can only hope I'm wrong!
-------------------------------------
I thought you libs "claimed" he was born in HAWAII! So which one is it Hawaii, Kansas, or Kenya? HAHAHHAAHA
Point of interest: Obama was born in Kansas. It's expected to go for McCain. But I can only hope I'm wrong!
No wonder the Hawaii birth certificate was fake!!
(snark)
"McCain would lose Germany if they could vote (he was born there)."
McCain was born in Panama.
Omet said...
Eric, you stated numerous erroneous pieces of info. However, the most egregious is the statement that McCain was born in Germany. He was born in the Panama Canal Zone.
Wikipedia and google can be your friends, mate.
I was about to admit this mistake. I apologize. I'd love for you to point out any others. I'm not aware of any.
So who do you think should win the Ohio State vs. Penn State game? It just started. I am rooting for Ohio State because I lived there for my grade school years.
BTW, hopefully Obama wins both of these states!!!
"I'm getting tired of this ethos that people who would prefer Obama to win are honor-bound to act like members of his campaign.
I'm a political junkie first, a journalist second and an Obama supporter third. I'm not being paid to work for his campaign, nor would I choose to volunteer for it."
Three points: First, if being an Obama supporter comes third to you at this point in the country's history, behind being a journalist and being a "political junkie" your priorities need adjusting.
Second, there is no need to put any of these characteristics above or in front of the other:you can be a political junkie, a journalist and an Obama supporter without conflict.
Third, not helping McCain is not the same as acting like a member of the campaign.
Bottom line:
Actions have consequences. Though its unlikely that McCain will listen to anyone, including Nate, the fact is that writing an article designed to give McCain a better chance of winning, and publishing it in one of Murdoch's rags has consequences. The issue is: why do it? What's in it for Nate, and is he ready to accept the consequences of accepting the money and recognition that comes with being a writer for the Post?
Nate is likely to be around and to be well regarded for a long time. If his affectation is that he is like one of his statistics, i.e. morally neutral, that's a choice it is his right to make. But pretending that your acts have no consequences or that adverse consequences are somehow not your moral responsibility is nonsense.
Second
You libs are appalling. You fail to realize McCain is stealing the election AS WE SPEAK. HAHAHAHAHAH
I think at this point North Dakota might the single most purely toss-up state...it's now in the low 40s at intrade.
McCain was born in Panama, not Germany.
Speaking of birthplaces of Presidents, was Hamilton eligible to be President, or did the Founding Fathers conspire to keep him from the prize by requiring him to be "natural born"? (He was born on the Island of Nevis, a British colony in the BWI.)
Hey, did you guys see the world map poll of US President? McCain is more popular in only three countries: Namimbia, Algeria, and IRAQ! Go figure.
Obama for President...of the world!
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
Not that it matters, McCain and Palin are going to steal the election!!!!!! HAHAHAHA
LONG LIVE THE PALIN DYNASTY
"your priorities need adjusting."
I'm sorry that they don't align with yours. I agree that after 8 years of Bush this country could use a realignment leftward, but under most circumstances McCain would have made a fine president.
"Second, there is no need to put any of these characteristics above or in front of the other:you can be a political junkie, a journalist and an Obama supporter without conflict."
Apparently they sometimes do conflict. A political junkie has no problems outlining what McCain would do to win, an Obama supporter would not. As an Obama supporter and a journalist, I can donate to his campaign but I cannot have yard signs or bumper stickers. There are conflicts.
"But pretending that your acts have no consequences or that adverse consequences are somehow not your moral responsibility is nonsense."
Equating political victory with moral righteousness is everything that was wrong with Bush's supporters. You are being no better than them.
Hey Nate -- you're getting famous all over! A columnist in Canada's Globe and Mail quoted you repeatedly this morning.
Good on ya, lad!
Once again, the same statistical screwup rears it's ugly head. Again, you have "McCain loses OH/FL" listed as happening 8055 times (over 80% of the time), when he only loses FL by itself 74% of the time. It should seem rather obvious that this is mathematically impossible, but this situation has come up repeatedly.
Eric and Omet look like they're in a lovers quarrel! Must have gotten tired of jerking each other off because of erroneous polls.
You white liberals will be regretting your votes for Hussein once he turns this country into a black supremacy nation. Us whites will be building a statue of Hussein in the middle of his empire while he laughs it up with his muslim associates and black colleagues, giggling at the fact that he couldn't have won without you. Come back from the dark(literally) side, white libs!
Not that it matters, McCain and Palin are going to steal the election!!!!!! HAHAHAHA
LONG LIVE THE PALIN DYNASTY
making mistakes leads people to not be interested in anything you say or do. I try not to make them, otherwise I may as well not post here. The only thing I'm aware of that I was wrong about was McCain's birthplace. Sorry about that. Panama would vote for Obaam too.
I used to run a bloggin website. I wish Nate would let me moderate here. I'd not only ban the fake Mule Rider and the fake PeteKent (both embarassing idiots), but I'd be able to send special signals through to their computers so that the next time they posted while they whacked off (which is like every time when they post here), they would be electrocuted. And it wouldn't be pretty.
Hey, did you guys see the world map poll of US President? McCain is more popular in only three countries: Namimbia, Algeria, and IRAQ! Go figure.
Completely false! He is also winning (narrowly)in Sudan, Cuba and the Democratic Republic on the Congo!
And don't forget Georgia! After all, we're all Georgians now.
skydog,
Do you masturbate to Nate's numbers?
You libs are appalling. You fail to realize McCain is stealing the election AS WE SPEAK. HAHAHAHAHAH
I don't get what McCain is doing... the full-attack mode is obviously backfiring, there has to be someone on his staff who's telling him that, right? Or maybe they're all in some kind of Reichstag-bunker mindset where no one dare tell Fearless Leader the facts? What? It's like every day the McCain campaign shoots itself in the foot - yesterday it was the $150,000 clothes bill, today it's Diva Sarah backstabbing John so she's got a shot at 2012.. when are they going to start ripping each other's clothes, throwing chairs and have the Springer security staff break it up? I await Jerry's Final Thought on November 5.
"As an Obama supporter and a journalist, I can donate to his campaign but I cannot have yard signs or bumper stickers. There are conflicts."
How is a bumper sticker or yard sign a conflict? Not even in the military is it a conflict.
Going to a campaign event as a journalist and acting like a supporter is a conflict.
Paulette said...
I'm a moderate republican woman for Obama, and I wish people would stop calling republicans names on this forum. We all vote in the best interests of this country in every election cycle.
Now that is funny! You are implying all bushes have been elected by DEMs and Indy's while republicans in this country's best interest voted for their opponents!
You libs are appalling. You fail to realize McCain is stealing the election AS WE SPEAK. HAHAHAHAHAH
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6559
Norm Coleman mails "rape" comic book to Minnesota's children
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/norm-coleman-mails-rape-comic-book-to.html
McCain: "Why didn't I think of that?!?"
Oops. Mom was born in Kansas. Obama in Hawai'i. My bad.
Guess that still makes him American, hunh? Conservative dipshits.
"How is a bumper sticker or yard sign a conflict? Not even in the military is it a conflict."
It's about being above the appearance of bias. The journalist's code of ethics is designed to not only write and report without bias, but to actively promote the image of unbiasedness.
newsinOH said...
Sorry if this got a lot of play earlier, I haven't seen it on here. Biden sat for probably THE most bizarre interview ever with some nutball out of an ABC affiliate in FL.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW_wQgWviZ8
OMG.
Joe Biden is now officially the best VP candidate ever, and absolved of all guilt for any prior gaffs.
jumere
Pete,
You're all over the place. I thought you were pulling for Obama to win so that Palin could somehow inspire people "from the South" to hop in boats??? and attack Massachusetts. Let me say that the boat thing is genius. Hopefully they will be row boats. It would take them about 4 years to make the attack, so by that time it would time for the next election anyways.
Now you are saying that McCain is going to steal the election. Which do you want??
Or maybe you think that McCain will steal the election and then Palin will cause a mutiny from within. Her supporters will band together and attack and kill President McCain. Am I close?
Speaking of dirty campaigning, nothing was dirtier than the Harold Ford Senate campaign in TN. The white playboy bunny juxtaposed with a darkened up photo of Ford. And a voiceover saying "He's just not right" which happens to rhyme with ". . . just not white."
McCain and Palin have tried to evoke the same racist theme in many of the things they have done in this campaign. The most obvious is painting Obama as mysterious and as an outsider and telling ALL WHITE CROWDS he's not LIKE US.
Strong racist code. I am surprised that at least $10,000 of Sarah Palin's wardrobe money wasn't spent on white sheets and wizard hats. (Maybe it was.)
Re:
Nate,
Do the models expect that people who are undecided at this point are less likely to vote than those who were undecided a month out?
Less. On NPR "Wait Wait" they pointed out that remaining undecided voters cannot go out if it rains because if they look up they are at risk of drowning.
I can't believe no one has done the obvious...
Kos just posted a poll from Myers Research and Grove Institute showing McCain up 44-40 in Likely voters in AZ and Obama up 47-46 in early voters
This is great news!!!!! For JOHN MCCAIN1!!!!
"It's about being above the appearance of bias. The journalist's code of ethics is designed to not only write and report without bias, but to actively promote the image of unbiasedness."
Maybe if you were well-known enough to make a stir if you did that.
What is your definition of bias? Some think it is bias to call out lies.
I was awaiting the Palin revolution BEFORE I figured out McCain was going to steal the election!!! hahaha!!!!
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6559
inkstain said...
"Obama was born in Kansas."
No, he wasn't. His birth certificate clearly states Hawaii. He was raised in Kansas.
Obama was raised in Hawaii
stepper,
Obama isn't like most of "US." So what's your point?
He'll break 400 with Texas. Mark it eight, dude.
You LIBS should be getting nervous!!!
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6559
The Society of Professional Journalist's Code of Ethics can be found here:
http://www.spj.org/ethicscode.asp
Journalists should:
—Avoid conflicts of interest, real or perceived.
— Refuse gifts, favors, fees, free travel and special treatment, and shun secondary employment, political involvement, public office and service in community organizations if they compromise journalistic integrity.
Yard signs or bumper stickers or t-shirts would fall under "Perceived conflicts of interest" and "shun...political involvement."
This is why it drives me nuts when people casually throw around accusations of bias in the media (for either side). They don't seem to realize how seriously we take ethics and how insulting those accusations are. It's no different than casually implying that it's normal for teachers to intentionally make kids dumber or for bank tellers to skim from deposits.
paulette,
I think most people who post here are just fine with what was the Republican party before it was hijacked by divisive tactics. Unfortunately, the many, many videos showing a sizable percentage of people now claiming the Republican party while shouting/repeating just plain crazy stuff leads to them being referred to as Republicans.
My hope, and that of many others here, is that the Republican party can be renewed without such a high percentage of fringe characters. Intelligent opposition is the best for both parties.
In the meantime, I'm afraid, the term "Republican" is going to be associated with those who believe Sarah Palin is their future and it's going to be mocked. Frankly, it deserves to be mocked for violating everything it once stood for in promoting someone like Palin.
You libs are appalling. You fail to realize McCain is stealing the election AS WE SPEAK. HAHAHAHAHAH
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6559
"Maybe if you were well-known enough to make a stir if you did that. "
Everyone in my town knows I work for the local paper. I know it's become sort of odd in this country where we've lowered our ethical standards so far, but I really do take this quite seriously.
"What is your definition of bias? Some think it is bias to call out lies."
Some people are going to whine about bias no matter what journalists do. That's why it's all the more important to actively work toward professional credibility by being above even the *appearance* of bias.
Pete,
I voted in Texas last Tuesday. I was a little more worried about my vote getting switched from Obama to McCain than I have been in past elections. After you make your picks for the national and local races, a summary screen comes up to verify who you picked in each race. Even though it showed Obama, I still scrolled back to the original screen to make sure nothing had changed. I'm confident that my vote was correctly counted.
"McCain loses popular vote >3%, wins election: 0.01%". "McCain landslide: 0.01%."
What the hell did those work out to be?
Real Joe said...
inkstain said...
"Obama was born in Kansas."
No, he wasn't. His birth certificate clearly states Hawaii. He was raised in Kansas.
Obama was raised in Hawaii
Obama was born in Hawaii, Hemoved to Indonesia when was young, lived ther for a few years and then moved back to Hawaii. his mother raised him until he was 10. His grandparents raised him from 10-18 in Hawaii. His mother was there until he was 10.
"A political junkie has no problems outlining what McCain would do to win, an Obama supporter would not. As an Obama supporter and a journalist, I can donate to his campaign but I cannot have yard signs or bumper stickers. There are conflicts."
This, too, is illogical and silly.
An Obama supporter can certainly analyze how McCain might win and outline it, journalist or not; but an Obama supporter would not willingly publish that analysis for use by the party he feels should lose. Neither is a journalist compelled to publish material that could help bring about an outcome that he believes would be harmful to the country.
Even less logical: If you have a yard sign or a bumper sticker, you have somehow betrayed your position as a journalist, but if you send in a donation you haven't?
"Equating political victory with moral righteousness is everything that was wrong with Bush's supporters. You are being no better than them."
This is beyond nonsense, and again shows that your priorities need reconsidering. Some journalists, not the best ones, seem to have a compulsion to look at all issues as though they are really closely balanced, and write their articles to reflect that view. This perspective sometimes conveys the truth and informs his or her readers; at other times, such a perspective, in print, seriously misinforms that reader, because the truth of the situation is that there is little balance in fact.
In this case, we have a man drifting into Alzheimers, who has withheld information about a cancer which is not generally considered cured for a few more years from now, who has permitted himself to approve a campaign that betrays every honorable principle he ever stood for, and who took as his vice presidential running mate a woman who is both unintelligent and venal, and whose main virtues are cunning and a willingness to lie as easily as she breathes. On the other side is a brilliant man, who has had his own lapses in campaign ads, admittedly, but whose overall competence is staggering.
No one is equating political victory with moral righteousness; I'm not exactly sure what that means; a journalist should use words more precisely. My point is simply this: if a McCain victory would likely be a disaster for this country, pretending that publishing information that could help bring that disaster about is morally neutral is self-serving delusion.
I'm confident that my vote was correctly counted.
I'm sure many weren't. ;)
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE FROM STOLEN VOTES!!!! 10 DAYS!!!!
BHO birth certificate- Hawaii.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/06/obama-birth.html
I guess the righties are upset because he does not have the original. I don't have my original birth certificate either. I guess that means i was hatched. There was also a birth announcement in a Hawaii paper.
What is hilarious is that McCain tries to make Obama seem like a foreigner when he is a poster boy for an American. Ever hear of the melting pot?
Granted, he is better educated then the average American, but that hardly makes him one of 'them'.
Or is it the whole "He is a Muslim with a radical Christian preacher he listened to for 20 years" nonsense?
These idiots alternate between several disjoint sets, yet do not seem to notice. Behold, the McCain supporter.
Once we get a filibuster-proof majority in Senate, agenda item #1 should be returning to a paper punch ballot system, with every state having the same voting guidelines. This election stealing stuff is total c#$p
The voting machines will STEAL and ELECT republicans for years to come!!
Have fun crying libs! HAHAHAHAHA
PPP
10/21 - 10/23; 1,231 likely voters
Virginia
Obama - 52 (+1 from previous poll)
McCain - 43 (unchanged)
hahaha...Pete just pointed out where one of the McCain landslide scenarios must come from. He steals the election through the use of faulty voting machines. Nate must have included that in the model when he ran the scenarios.
I still believe that Nate's MOE calculation is seriously flawed, and does not reflect the true uncertainty on a state-by-state basis.
Consider DC. His prediction of O+75.1 is based on nothing but demographic extrapolation and a single month-and-a-half-old poll by our second-favorite pollster whipping boy, ARG. While this is admittedly better than Zogby Interactive, I think it is fair to say that the uncertainty in that prediction is a good deal greater than the +/- 5.6 points that Nate's model assigns to it.
Contrast this to Pennsylvania, a state which has its own tracking polls, in addition to plenty of attention from other highly-rated pollsters. The MOE there is 4.1 points.
Sorry, but it makes no intuitive sense that DC's MOE should be only 1.2 points greater than PA.
This wouldn't be such a big issue, except that the MOE is critical to Nate's model, affecting the variations within his simulations. This is how he concludes that Obama's margin in OH translates to an 81% likelihood of victory there, whereas his win percentage in IN is 54%. If the MOE calculation is wrong, then these percentages are wrong, as is Obama's 95.7% win percentage.
I would really like it if Nate could comment on how he computes the MOE on his projections. The FAQ has very little to say on this subject.
OpenID Antmatic said...
PPP
10/21 - 10/23; 1,231 likely voters
Virginia
Obama - 52 (+1 from previous poll)
McCain - 43 (unchanged)
Man, the evidence is all pointing to a major landslide in VA, probably by like at least 12 points, especially with the underestimation of the minority vote.
All these posts about the closeness of the Arizona vote makes me really really really glad I sent in my absentee ballot for Obama. It might actually make a difference!
Actually, Dems aren't all that odd in Arizona. Governor Bruce Babbitt was a Democrat:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Babbitt
I think the frontier nature and the name Goldwater is what makes folks think it's 'only' Republican.
This may also explain some of the change to Dems in the Western states:
http://www.democratsforthewest.com/cgi-bin/display.cgi?page=launch
Note mention of Dennis DeConcini, another former Arizona Democrat Senator. Unfortunately, he didn't survive the Keating Five scandal, unlike McCain. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_DeConcini
When is the press going to start pointing out McCain's dirty past? Or is it so unnecessary that it would be considered kicking the guy when he's already lost?
Go ahead, joke. You'll be crying when McCain wins, just like you did in 00 and 04! lol!
"This, too, is illogical and silly."
You have a real problem with believing that rational people could possibly see things differently from you, don't you?
"An Obama supporter can certainly analyze how McCain might win and outline it, journalist or not"
And your reading skills need work. I clearly said a *political junkie* would want to publish ways McCain could win.
"Even less logical: If you have a yard sign or a bumper sticker, you have somehow betrayed your position as a journalist, but if you send in a donation you haven't?"
One is highly public and visible, the other is not. It's all about the perception.
"Neither is a journalist compelled to publish material that could help bring about an outcome that he believes would be harmful to the country."
If that information is truthful and of interest to the public, the journalist is *completely* compelled to do so. No journalist should be as arrogant as you appear to be, assuming that they can substitute their own judgment of what is best for the country for everyone's.
" McCain victory would likely be a disaster for this country, pretending that publishing information that could help bring that disaster about is morally neutral is self-serving delusion."
*Your* assessment is that a McCain presidency would be a disaster. Not everyone agrees. Your arrogance in assuming that your way of seeing the election is the only possible truthful way to see it literally astounds me.
You liberals are NUTS. Don't you get it? McCain is going to STEAL this election. HAHAHAHA
Are any of those polls you guys are posting factoring in the BRADLEY EFFECT? I don't know many white people that vote for racist, black muslims!
Drams of My Father gives a chronlogy of places Obama has lived:
Born in Hawaii, spent early childhood there and I think some time in Kansas. His father left very early. Obama's mother brings him to Indonesia with her new husband Lolo, an Indonesian man. Obama is there for a few years. His mother doesn't want him growing up in Indonesia, so she sends him to live with her parents, his grandparents to Hawaii, when he's 10. He grows up in Hawaii, stays there through high school. At 18 he moves to Los Angeles (Occidental College), at about 20 he moves to New York (Columbia), at about 23 he moves to Chicago (Commnutiy Organizing), goes to Harvard LAw at about I think 28 or so (Boston area), moves back to Chicago at about 30, between Springfield and Chicago from 37-44, then between Washington D.C., Chicago, and the road from 44-47.
Hey Pete:
How do you type so fast?
The Colbert Report: The McCain Campaign Reaches Out To The Middle Class
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/colbert-report-mccain-campaign-reaches-out
The BRADLEY EFFECT and VOTE STEALING will lead to a...
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
Post a Comment