Well, scratch West Virginia from the swing state list for the time being. Both Public Policy Polling and Mason-Dixon have new polling out in the state, and they give John McCain leads of 8 and 6 points respectively. It's possible that this is one of those areas where McCain's attacks on Barack Obama are having some resonance. It's also possible that the state was never all that close to begin with, and that the ARG poll from two weeks ago that gave Obama a substantial lead was one of those infamous ARG outliers. By no means is the state totally unwinnable for Obama -- and I'd still like to see what, say, Research 2000 or Rasmussen or SurveyUSA have to say about it -- but in all probability, it is pretty far from the tipping point.
Elsewhere around the country...
The national tracking polls are actually in pretty good agreement with one another, with IBD/TIPP, Research 2000, Gallup, and Hotline all settling in the 5-7 point range. Zogby is the outlier at Obama +2.7, and that's because Zogby has the odd practice of fixing his poll's party identification weights based on what they were in the last presidential election. In Zogby's world, then, it's still 2004, when there were roughly as many Republicans as Democrats. Although Zogby's trendlines may be worth looking at, his topline numbers are basically unusable.
John McCain does get a good result in Ohio from Mason-Dixon, which has him ahead 46-45. Mason-Dixon has had a mild Republican lean this cycle, and so this result isn't necessarily incongrous with other polling that gives Obama a small lead in the Buckeye State. Nevertheless, there is an argument that the McCain people should take a gamble and not devote a lot of resources to Ohio, which is currently running 2-3 points behind Obama's national numbers. That's not to say that McCain will win Ohio -- on the contrary, Obama remains the favorite -- but if the national popular vote draws back to a rough tie, which is a precondition for any McCain victory scenario, it would seem unlikely that Ohio defies the trend.
Meanwhile, Obama remains ahead by double digits in two polls of Minnesota, and in another poll of Wisconsin. He now has in excess of a 90 percent chance of winning every one of John Kerry's states.
10.19.2008
Today's Polls, 10/19
@ 6:00 PM
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Hey, if economics were simple, we'd all have no bills...
"Ex-Asst. Treasury Sec. Paul Craig Roberts on Wall St. Bailout: “Has Deregulation Sired Fascism?
"As the Bush administration announces a $250 billion plan to partially nationalize the nation’s banking system, we speak to Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Department in the Reagan administration and a former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. Roberts says the latest bank measure suggests the bailout is “either incompetence or fraud.”
"[T]he original Paulson plan was to give the Secretary of the Treasury $700 billion with no accountability and give him complete control over the financial system. And that, of course, is state capitalism or fascism. If you control the financial system, you control the economy. And so, that was my way of pointing out the dramatic sort of power that was said to be necessary to stem a crisis that, in my view, could be fixed just by refinancing mortgages, like they did during the Great Depression.
AMY GOODMAN: Who is driving this? Who framed this bailout? And explain exactly who it is who benefits right now.
PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Well, what the bailout does is it takes troubled financial instruments off the balance sheet of the banks and puts them on the balance sheet of the taxpayer at the US Treasury. So it’s a bailout of the financial institutions whose recklessness caused the problem. And as I’ve already said, it does not address the problem. It only addresses the problem of the banks. So the foreclosures and the defaulting mortgages will continue as the economy worsens, and yet nothing is being done to stabilize that default rate or to stop these foreclosures. So the money is essentially being poured into the coffers of Washington’s financial donor base.
I totally agree with mirrormirror,
That is my argument exactly, but with more facts and better eloquence. Thank You.
Republicans will go to their extreme base next presidential election. Count on it. It will be nastier and uglier. It is their "God given right." They must transform and lead this country on the path of salvation.
Not to mention, they control the conservative media. Their message will be made and will be heard. "Pro-America and Patriot."
Obama has shown me to be a great "chess player." Able to anticipate moves of his opponents before he makes them. I believe this is what he sees in store for him in 2012. He is ready. Even with 2008 not yet finished.
This is what gives me faith in him more than what I had in Clinton, Bill type.
God Speed Obama.
You know, mirrormirror, I once thought about the political climate in the UK that led to the Iron Lady's victory and I said to myself the US may be setting herself up for the same scenario. (I'm originally from a Commonwealth country, so I'm well aware of the British system). I had this thought weeks ago. It's interesting you vocalized your thoughts.
Once again the US has to tutor Europe. We can elect a man of color like they did in.... oh, my bad. Not in Europe.
Bamaobama,
Come and talk again when you guys get round to electing a woman. It's only 29 years since Margaret Thatcher was elected in the UK.
Also most European countries, with the exception of the UK, don't have smallish black populations, so I think you'll be waiting some time.
Oh and the UK managed to elect a Jewish prime minister (Benjamin Disraeli) in 1868, what's taken you so long?
(Though I agree that the less said the better about the treatment of Jews in other parts of Europe).
Whoops, meant to say that most European countries DO have only smallish black populations...
Hi! New to the forum though I've been prowling. Love it! Already voted - for Obama.
I live in GA, grew up and went to college and grad school in NC, have live in VA, travel extensively in OH, FL, and PA. My take from talking to friends, family, coworkers in these states and just counting signs on front lawns . . . .
Obama will win VA and PA easily. McNasty will win OH (by more than the polls suggest), NC (a very close one), FL (by no more than 1%) and, of course, GA (well over 5%). So, my call is:
Obama: Kerry + VA + IA + NM + CO + NV. I think that's 291 EV.
I had hoped for a BO landslide, but I don't see it. Who cares, as long as he WINS!!!!! I'll go with my usually republican 70+ father in NC who swears he's moving to Canada if Palin is VP. (Note - I'm old enough to have voted for Ford and the first Reagan run. Voted democratic ever since.)
Doc
Ok mirrormirror,
don't get snide and cocky with your comments ;)
You know we Americans cannot take that kind of attitude. Besides, tell me why you think Americans have not had a women as president? I would like too know. Maybe it might happen, 16 years from now.
'"In that ABC poll, 38% of people say that the Palin pick makes them more confident in mcCain's decision making ability. Also 40% of poeple think that ACORN is a legitimate issue.
what does this mean? That McCain's support in this poll can't be that much higher than 42%"
Not necessarily true.'
It means there's a hard conservative floor in probably the mid-30s (but it's still able to disapprove of Bush for not being conservative enough) and a handful of additional undecideds.
I'd be curious how much NON-overlap there was between the 38% and 40%.
I've said to myself either the Obama wins and the GOP has a really hard time to get back in power OR the GOP wins and things get so bad that it turns out to be a death knell to the party. Either way, the GOP has to do something about its 'radical' evangelical base if the party is going to move forward.
Anyone here know what Nate's prediction was for the NH primaries?
Signature-gatherer arrested in voter fraud
ok,
Signing off. Late here in MO. Have to bring in my dogs.
Volunteer, canvass, phone. Keep up the fight.
Gen. Sherman
P.S.
It will be a great day when the SOUTH is Democrat again.
Nice. And of course.
Reports in WV of machines seamlessly switching Dem votes to GOP.
http://wvgazette.com/News/200810180251
Ed M - Why do you think deficit hawks are so dangerous?
Because that's nuts right now.
In a recession/depression you spend your way back into the black if you are the U.S.
When the clouds clear you belt-tighten and tax your way back into solvency.
Zogby tracking poll: Obama 49.8% McCain 44.4%
The ridiculous Zogby headline: "Is Mobama Back?"
Zogby will have Obama back upby 5.4% on Monday
just out now
@ http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598
Zogby (10/20):
O49.8
M44.4
I understand Zogby has lost his credibility, but may be the 'Joe the Plumber' phenomene is over.
Zogby is giving 'volatile' a new definition
but he joins the other polls with Obama at 50%
odd, but Drudge has not jumped on the Zogby tagline 'Is Mobama Back?' and has yet to change the #'s on his crapalicious site...
hhhmmm
That is a surprise from Drudge, I've really come to expect a higher level of journalistic integrity from them.
And ABC WaPo can just about kiss my ass tonight, I have class in the morning, release the damn poll already.
Could Zogby be first sign of a Powell bounce?...more likely though, he's making it up as it goes along.
don't get snide and cocky with your comments ;)
Besides, tell me why you think Americans have not had a women as president? I would like too know. Maybe it might happen, 16 years from now.
Not being snide and cocky (well, not much) :) It's just that sometimes Americans aren't entirely well-informed about European politics. Which is not surprising since I don't think I've seen a European political story reported in the American media since we moved here...
Why hasn't the US elected a woman? I don't really have any idea but I'd hazard a guess that it's because there hasn't been a really exceptional female politician over here. It's still true that if you're female or from a minority you have to be head and shoulders above everyone else to succeed - being on a par is not good enough. Obama is winning because he is one of the most charismatic and inspirational PEOPLE - black or white - I've ever encountered.
Thatcher got elected because she was a truly exceptional politician. You may not agree with her policies (many in the UK didn't). But at the time of her election most of the Labour party was in thrall to the unions and most of her own party were running around like headless chickens. She stood up, banged heads together and got stuff DONE. Unfortunately Britain hasn't produced another female politican like her since.
Hillary was certainly good enough to be credible, but I just don't think she has that touch of greatness. Good isn't good enough for a woman. And unfortunately most of the other female politicians I see paraded on CNN appear to be just so many Stepford wives...
Zogby Monday track is out-
O - 49.8 (2 pt jump in one day!)
M - 44.4 (down .7 from yesterday)
This evening's polling would of course have to include this mornings news about Powell. So, nothing else would have accounted for the good Obama number...
Unless you consider that ass-whoppin speech he gave today in NC.
sean said...
That is a surprise from Drudge, I've really come to expect a higher level of journalistic integrity from them.
LOL. You think Matt Drudge is a journalist? Matt Drudge is neither a journalist nor a person of integrity.
Yeah, sorry, that was a joke. Tone of voice, intertubes, all that...
Zogby Monday tracker is out -
49.8 - O (two full points up from yesterday
44.4 - M (down .7)
Powell effect... nothing else happened from yesterday to today.
Zogby is a tool
but he finally has gotten in line with the consensus of pollsters on his electoral map
O 273 EV [WIN]
M 163
U 102 in 8 tossup states
the same 8 states as most sites list EXCEPT that Zogby gives VA to Obama and leaves NH as a 'tossup' with NV & CO & MO & IN & OH & NC & FL
but he is leaving the door open to the same 375 EVs that seems to be the current snapshot consensus
in the meantime, Zogby is still trying to sell his membership access by pushing the close horserace narrative using a weighted model to give a GOPer 'house effect' IMHO
Released: October 20, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is Mobama Back?
Big day for Obama propels him to 5.4-point lead over McCain—49.8% to 44.4%
I agree with mirror, mirror. I just disagree with the timeline. Over the past 8 years, the Republicans have been appealing to evangelicals. McCain thought it was so essential that he went against the VP pick he wanted to make in order to select Palin, just to appease this supposedly all-important group. By almost all accounts, it has done him more harm than good and cost him much of his credibility. I think leading up to 2010 the Congressional/Washington GOP leaders, who will proportionately be *less* evangelical than they have been in the past 8 years, will be busily remaking the party. The party still has its brand of fiscal conservatism (don't ask me how), so it's selling point is already there. Heck, Newt Gingrich was spelling this out on This Morning today.
I think it's a misnomer to say that the evangelicals are the only base of the GOP, anyway. There's a significant portion of the party that is moderate on social policy and conservative on economics and foreign policy. They've been increasingly pushed aside, with the conventional wisdom that there aren't that many of them and they would never vote for a Democrat, anyway. Those assumptions are proving wrong, and as Democrats get better at discussing their religious beliefs and as younger evangelicals become more interested in progressive social issues, like the environment and health policy, it won't be such a lock that evangelicals will all vote Republican. That's been the big talk in evangelical circles during this election cycle--the changing face of the movement and their growing distaste with the GOP. I don't think it will take Republicans 10 years to figure out that the evangelical base isn't big enough to bring home elections (particularly in the suburbs and ex-urbs), especially since many GOP top strategists are already talking about this shift. And they haven't even lost the election yet.
I think the situation is very different from England in the 1980s. I think it's hard to overestimate the damage Bush has done to his party and the country more broadly. I just don't think there's an easy analogue.
Extrapolate "Real Joe's" tax situation for half a minute.
Lower taxes for most people helps the whole country. It is not selfish of "Real Joe" at all not to want to pay an exorbitant amount of income tax.
Many of us think the amount of money we pay in tax is usurious as it is.
We like to be in charge of our OWN money.
No one is asking that we pay no tax. But when you add the sales and use taxes to the income and social security and every tax built into everything from the phone bill to the water bill, we are feeling massively overtaxed.
Less taxes =
a stronger economy =
a stronger defense =
a better nation and a happier life for everybody.
Making everyone equally poor just makes everybody poor. "Real Joe" is honest and practical in my opinion.
RCP will have to list that as a 6 point spread, O+3 from yesterday
but then RCP 'strangely' decided on Sunday to drop all of the polls from their average except for the 6 national trackers they follow + an extra Gallup LV [no R2000 though]
that allowed them to make it look like Obama's average spread had dropped overnight from over +6 to 5+/-
talk about changing your model...
hopefully today's releases will push that back up into the 6-7 range again on RCP & here on 538 too
Presently, the bottom 40% of income earners pay zero income taxes. The top 20% pay 80% of all the federal income taxes. Therefore, it is not possible to give the bottom 40% a tax cut because they pay no money to the government. So this begs the question: How is Barack Obama proposing to give a tax cut to 95% of Americans?
I voted early today in Columbus, OH, and it was busy at Vets Memorial. I was told that it's been pretty busy with the turnout so far for early voting. Interest in the election is definitely high in Ohio!
All working Americans in effect pay payroll taxes, as well as sales taxes.
marie,
Begging the question refers to making a statement like:
So when did you stop beating your wife?
As for your question: 95% refers to tax payers (not the more restrictive income tax payers). Remember there are more federal taxes than federal income taxes, for instance social security tax, which is very significant to low income earners. Regardless, Obama's plan does not provide a tax break to people who aren't paying taxes, which is the implication of your question.
Ugh. I can't believe you've forsaken baseball during these playoffs.
Jon Kruk is saying on ESPN how not even the Rays thought they'd be any good this year.
Turns out lots of people saw this coming.
thank you bruce
Washington Post says the poll (ABC/Wash Post) will be released at 5 pm.
And how concerned should we be about those reports from the voting machines in W.VA.
And how concerned should we be about those reports from the voting machines in W.VA.
Very concerned. There is no regulation of electronic voting machines. Mysterious that they only make mistakes in McCain's favor.
I love how the article states that the voter, of course, made the mistake.
What happened to the intent of the voter?
why oh why did the congress democrats not do anything about making voting more secure?
That's a remarkable new simulation histogram -- I don't think I've ever seen the mode that strong. Roughly 13% out of the 10,000 simulations all converge on 364 electoral votes. Presumably those correspond to the same breakdown of red/blue states ?
-- Sheila R, who just donated $100 to "steal back your vote" -- please follow my lead anyone who can afford to donate anything !!!
Regarding voting machines...
I think that the problem generally is money.
Also the code inside the electronic voting machines has been shown to be insecure. But nothing is done.
What if we are in the Matrix and no longer have control over who we elect any more?
oct said...
And how concerned should we be about those reports from the voting machines in W.VA.
Very concerned. There is no regulation of electronic voting machines. Mysterious that they only make mistakes in McCain's favor.
**************
Hope Obama will win despite the fraud .
I also hope that the next dem.senate get 60 seats.
Then they should reform your electoral system which it looks to me very ugly,too many different rules form state to state,you should uniform them.
what I found particulary unappropriate if I may say:
#1-throw that machine in the garbage FO-RE-VER.
#2-give to any US citezen whom has the right to vote a special paper where the official at the poll put a mark and a signature after voting,in this way the voter can only vote once.
#3-every voter mast show up at the poll with an ID including a fotograph.
#4-Hold the election on SATURDAY trough SUNDAY and NOT in a working day.
greetings from Europe.
:)
p.s.
@oct.
sorry for my crocodile's english...
I Saw Mr. Zogby on C-Span tonight, analyzing his poll results.
Initially, he was talking about the overall poll, with 1211 responders, and a error percentage of 2.9%.
Next, he analized the results from the indies. However, the screen still showed 1211 responders, error +/- 2.9. I would assume that he probably did not have all his responders be indies, right? So the error should go up with only (guess) about 250 people.
Finally, he analized responders from families with active military. The numbers at the bottom of the screen still showed 1211 and +/- 2.9. He was trying to indicate that a change of 1% in this sample was significant (2% since the previous week)!
Now, I have no idea how many of his 1211 were military families, but I tend to doubt that all 1211 were (if there were 100, I would be suprised). With a sample size of less than 100, shouldn't the error be, like +/- 10%? And if that is true, how could a 1 or 2 point change mean anything at all?!?!
Either he doesn't understand how errors work (which would not suprise me, given the way Zogby normalizes), or this was the bigest snow job attempt by a polster that I have ever seen!!!
Obama has been getting really good numbers in MT lately. None of the polls thus far have taken Ron Paul into account. If you consider the number of votes Paul will leech off of McCain in MT, you might as well make MT solid blue on the map!
Hey Right Wing C, you want some ketchup for that hat? What time can we expect to see that clip on YouTube?
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
"Libs, if B. Hussein Obama wins NC I will eat my hat on YouTube.
He can't win here. There will be a BIG Bradley Effect in NC. I remember when you libs thought that black democrat would beat Jesse Helms (God rest is soul) but SURPRISE! he lost!"
How's that workin' out for you?
Hat pretty tasty there?
Liam.
I want to see some hat-eatin'! Come on, mr. Right Wing Conspiracist - you talked big, time to walk big.
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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