Well, scratch West Virginia from the swing state list for the time being. Both Public Policy Polling and Mason-Dixon have new polling out in the state, and they give John McCain leads of 8 and 6 points respectively. It's possible that this is one of those areas where McCain's attacks on Barack Obama are having some resonance. It's also possible that the state was never all that close to begin with, and that the ARG poll from two weeks ago that gave Obama a substantial lead was one of those infamous ARG outliers. By no means is the state totally unwinnable for Obama -- and I'd still like to see what, say, Research 2000 or Rasmussen or SurveyUSA have to say about it -- but in all probability, it is pretty far from the tipping point.
Elsewhere around the country...
The national tracking polls are actually in pretty good agreement with one another, with IBD/TIPP, Research 2000, Gallup, and Hotline all settling in the 5-7 point range. Zogby is the outlier at Obama +2.7, and that's because Zogby has the odd practice of fixing his poll's party identification weights based on what they were in the last presidential election. In Zogby's world, then, it's still 2004, when there were roughly as many Republicans as Democrats. Although Zogby's trendlines may be worth looking at, his topline numbers are basically unusable.
John McCain does get a good result in Ohio from Mason-Dixon, which has him ahead 46-45. Mason-Dixon has had a mild Republican lean this cycle, and so this result isn't necessarily incongrous with other polling that gives Obama a small lead in the Buckeye State. Nevertheless, there is an argument that the McCain people should take a gamble and not devote a lot of resources to Ohio, which is currently running 2-3 points behind Obama's national numbers. That's not to say that McCain will win Ohio -- on the contrary, Obama remains the favorite -- but if the national popular vote draws back to a rough tie, which is a precondition for any McCain victory scenario, it would seem unlikely that Ohio defies the trend.
Meanwhile, Obama remains ahead by double digits in two polls of Minnesota, and in another poll of Wisconsin. He now has in excess of a 90 percent chance of winning every one of John Kerry's states.
10.19.2008
Today's Polls, 10/19
@ 6:00 PM
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658 comments
first?
Hopefully we'll all be saying this for sixteen more days...but great news guys!
-Rich
Are gambling, homophobia and racism virtues, Bill?
first? I'm never first!
All good news for John McCain.
Nate, Why is Ohio defying the trend?
Good thing about Ohio is that it is quickly becoming irrelevant.
I don't think Ohio is defying any trends. It's about 2-3 points behind Obama's national numbers, which is where it's been for most of the campaign.
Early voting started yesterday in Nevada.
Vote totals up 76% from 2004 in Clark County. Clark County was the only blue county in Nevada in 2004, is +127k for Democrats, and contains more than half of Nevada's registered voters.
Not that Obama could win WV even if 75% of the state wanted to vote for him...:
http://wvgazette.com/News/200810180380
Could we *please* permanently ban users who do that "First!" crap?
PLEASE?!
Why is Ohio defying the trend?
Appalachia (the Southeastern 30 counties) and the South (Cincinnati) are getting progressively more difficult to overcome.
While Columbus is in the bag for Obama (at least Franklin County proper) and the Cuyahoga County machine is running pretty well, I'd bet that Obama's support in Toledo (Lucas County) is a bit softer than it's been in previous elections, despite the fact that it's an economic disaster area.
All three machines together would win the state. I'm betting only two of them are working.
Fortunately, Ohio can slip into irrelevance like Kentucky and Arkansas. It won't be missed.
I never believed WV would turn blue, anyway. It seemed outside the realm of even remote possibilities.
mhigh said...
Could we *please* permanently ban users who do that "First!" crap?
PLEASE?!
its always interesting to me to see what it is that makes some people get so upset.
Nate, does the projection part of the model have a term that contributes to the MOE? That is to say, should we expect the state projection MOEs to drop as the election gets closer, and the projection becomes less important?
Ohio's GOP state party organization is very well financed & organized. The state Dem party is coming back from the dead & is always underfunded. Voters here have had their buttons trained to respond to the GOP cues - unlimited guns, don't need to pay taxes, anti-gay, anti-union, anti-intellectual, etc. Hard state for Dems to win.
too bad about West Virginia, but it never really mattered any way.
Nate, what do you think about the effects of early voting on the map? As you know, whereas Ohio started voting some time ago, Pennsylvania has none. Could it be that's why they are concentrating their efforts there, even if it seems out of reach?
Looks like CNN has some new swing state polls. Ohio drawing back to a single point Obama lead.
Nate - we need you in the UK June 10, c'mon it'll be fun.
Anyways 1 question about party ID in the US polls:
Its importance is because those Idnetfying with a party would think anything there party did was wonderful and vice versa. ie they would vote for a frenchman as long as he had the GOP/Dem sticker on?
If I have this right.
How on earth can party id change on a weekly or monthly basis? Sure;y it would take years for those deep seated changes to be made?
These polls are great news!!! For Barack Obama!!!
Wow, look how BLUE that map is
On this day, October 19th, in 2004, George Bush led John Kerry 48.5% to 45.5%
For final results, please see Presidential inauguration, January 2005
John kerry never led in any major tracking poll between this time and election day
(41) days since the Fundamental Shift towards McCain/Palin as described by PeteKent
You 'Cons should be getting nervous!
Get used to eight years of President Barack HUSSEIN Obama Jr.
(Hussein emphasized to spite the race-mongering republicons who tried to use it politically)
Trolls MIA:
DarienCrow
Greg
Jack Black
Midpoint Man
CTPEM
CTSTW
A few weeks ago, you posted that, ceterus parbius, McCain would be losing about a half point a day off of win percentage.
Closer to election day, does this go up? Because every day that McCain can't close in Virginia or Colorado, I would imagine that his chances of the election go down quickly.
It looks like MO, VA and Florida are better states for Obama. When Democrats win nationally in Ohio, it's usually because of the Democratic support in eastern Ohio, particularly Youngstown. It doesn't appear that white Democrats are coming around to him there.
Last night, I went through and took a quick look at the 13 newspapers that endorsed Bush in 2004, but have flipped to Obama in 2008, to see if there was any trends.
Read it here: http://matthigh.livejournal.com/325455.html
In the past half-day, a few more papers could be added to that list (like the Houston Post, for example) - but it's interesting to see the view of the world from Bush supporters that have changed to Obama through these endorsements.
That's not a new CNN poll. It's their composite of recent polls, which they have at 47 0 - 46 0.
Not sure it has been mentioned - McCain was in Toledo today, Joe the P's hometown, but Joe was NOT at the rally (he apparently is in NY to try to extend his 15 minutes of fame - maybe try to get his own Fox show or radio work out of this.
Or maybe, in a rare moment of sanity, countering the Powell endorsement with Joe just didn't seem like a great plan.
Glad to see RCP hasn't included the Montana poll, because then it would go to "lean mccain". Also glad to see they didn't include the minnesota poll, because then it would go to "solid obama".
"its always interesting to me to see what it is that makes some people get so upset."
Because it is stupidity at its finest and has no relevance to anything. Try adding to the discussion.
They really only need Ohio to stay late past their electoral threshold which right now seems likely with the Powell thing grabbing two of what is essentially 10 media days (M-F) before election tuesday.
West Virginia probably was a fantasy. On Ohio, right now it looks like Obama might actually have a better shot in Missouri. Who would have thought that even a month ago!
The Future of Choice
Dems used to clean up in West Va, what happened?
I think their Dem voters must be a racist bunch there. Ha!
Ohio will not go blue this year. Which, thankfully, won't greatly matter. VA, CO, and FL are all much better pick up opportunities for Obama. Obama should just camp out in Tampa and make day trips to Orlando and Miami for the rest of the campaign. If he wins FL, there is no way McCain can win.
I rather like that First! crap. Even though I've never tried.
Ohio softness does not surprise me. Again, I think Florida may go blue and Ohio not. I could even see North Carolina going blue before Ohio, sort of geopolitical plate techtonics where there is a blue uplift that applies to Florida, NC and Virginia (maybe even W Va) but stops short of the Ohio River. Or maybe it's the ocean air...
Pleased to see the Montana may be in play, and I think it's not out of the question that Obama could reel it in depending in part on the backlash against the MT Republican Party dirty tricks to challenge only city voter registrations in Democratically-leaning counties. I know not to get my hopes up too much because in Montana they play catch and release.
ABC/WashPost national numbers out tonight at 12:01 AM ET. The polling will be Friday and Saturday polling.
It will be interesting to see how Sunday polling turns out. First clues will be Zogby and DailyKos early Monday AM.
If Obama can make a bigger dent in southern Ohio, then maybe WV will flip.
Neither state is critical, but adding to the landslide is always welcome!
i heard early voting favored obama in ohio.
also heard that early voting in FL was going repub ...
in a way i hate early voting (i voted early)
Good thing about Ohio is that it is quickly becoming irrelevant.
I couldn't agree more. I am so tired of Dems depending on OH, MO, and FL. I am loving the idea of an incipient Democratic map of: Kerry states - NH + NM + NV + CO + VA + NC. All those states have long-term trends indicating they will get more and more blue over the next several presidential cycles.
Regressives better brace for the future, and that future includes a United States where non-Hispanic whites are no longer a strong majority. Once that day comes, we can all bid good riddance to the nefarious "Southern Strategy". Yes, the Republicans can re-brand, but it will take a lot of time, having embraced this vile philosophy since 1968; and in the process they will have to relinquish their absolute stranglehold on the deep south.
God isn't with Joe Biden, it seems.
MCCAIN SURGE!
I threw this out earlier, partially in jest, but one of the problems in Ohio is that the economy has been horrid there for the past 7 years. Major companies left the Northern Ohio region in droves. Almost no support from Washington, in fact quite the opposite.
The result has been a brain drain and Ohio has turned into WVa/Ky II. Cleveland's not quite dead yet and, with a tad of attention and policies that are supportive of domestic business, it could build on some of the science/medical/technological bases that it has. Want it blue? Then the Dems better shore up N. Oh to keep the blue voters here.
I'm interested in seeing what turnout numbers actually look like after the election because here in Ohio I don't see an energized electorate for McCain. Elections are held on Tuesday's, will those folks take the time?
Early voting definitely favors Obama in Ohio. They've had a concerted effort in that regard all over the country.
Curious observation on the Free Republic crowd.
Though there's lots of flak about Colin Powell being a racist, so far I don't see a single comment about Obama's fundraising figures.
First!
If WV is close, no matter who actually wins it, the election is decidedly going to Obama.
I'm not surprised West Virginia is not in play, the residents are not the brightest folk. Yup, you heard me right. http://www.VoteRobot.org
MO looks to be more likely than OH at this point. MO shares some cultural characteristics with IL and IA (with some Arkansas mixed in) as opposed to Appalachia. Combine that with focused GOTV in St. Louis and Kansas City and the state is winnable. Remember that Obama won the MO primary as well.
RCP is so annoying. They didn't include the R2000 poll that showed Perdue ahead by 5 in NC as well. Looks like they only use R2000 when it's convenient for them.
Ugh...I can't wait until 538 starts to cover the house and governor elections, then I can take RCP off my favorites.
Great work as always, Nate. I updated my 538 Photostream on Flickr. It's always interesting to watch the map change over time!
Do you mean: for each Kerry state, Obama has more than a 90% chance of winning it; or, more than 90% of the time Obama wins all the Kerry states?
Okay...why does the model act so swiftly to new polls in WV, but two (really three) polls in ND all showing strikingly similar results (Obama tied to slightly ahead) don't affect its own numbers anymore than polls in far off KS or OK?
How does that work?...I'm genuinely curious.
I wouldn't count out WV yet. Andrea Mitchell on MTP this morning said that Obama is going to spend $5 million on the ground there in just the next 2 weeks. Plus, advertising that is hitting Ohio, PA, and VA is hitting WV as well.
Not that he'll need WV, but I could see it tipping blue right after Ohio and Missouri.
Buchanan on Hardball was incredible. He is the poster child for why the GOP is in trouble as a political party. He was certain that Powell endorse Obama because he was black because why else would he turn his back on a party that had been so good to him (read: we let you in, you black m f'er and this is the thanks we get!) based on trivial issues (because the "anti-American" type statements were just "silly" . . .) That failure to even recognize that there might be a problem, when the problem stuns and repels a majority of Americans, pretty much sums up the GOP stance.
The central dynamic:
1) Obama has 263 EV more or less locked up.
2) McCain has to run the table on 10+ toss up states, many of which are leaning toward Obama.
With limited resources, I don't see how McCain can possible hold all of these states... Put a lot of resources into OH and lose MO. Put a lot of resources into FL and lose VA. And who knows what is happening out in MT, ND, SD, etc...
just at Pollster and in their news headline was the item that mccain is now the guardian of the middle class!
i will rest easy tonight!
newsfromoh--my dream on election night is to see Buchana's head explode when they declare Obama the winner (hopefully, a little superstition over here). And also on inauguration day.
I want to see him having to seethe through it all. his world coming to an end.
chrish60 said...
Curious observation on the Free Republic crowd.
Though there's lots of flak about Colin Powell being a racist, so far I don't see a single comment about Obama's fundraising figures.
no comments about aliens giving money to Obama ????
hahahaha
Obama has the Kerry states, IA, and VA, locked up. It's over.
I don't think West Virginia was, or is, a fantasy. It was a blue state until the 2000 election. It's economically Democratic, socially Republican. Which do you think will trump in this election? It's not an easy state, and probably not the tipping point state in a close election, but by no means is it out of reach.
So,
Let me get this straight. Obama's a socialist because he supports/plans-to-expand the earned income tax credit?
Ok, but McCain et al do realize the EITC was a reagan policy, right?
By commutative property, McCain's calling Reagan a socialist. I can't imagine that's going to help him win independent voters.
Yeah, the freeptards are being pretty rough with their open racism. Here are a few disgusting comments from This thread
POWELL IS DESPICABLE!! He owes EVERYTHING to Republicans, but BLACKNESS is the ONLY thing that matters!!! Obama want to RUIN THE MILITARY and bring down MAERICA to THIRD WORLD STATUS!!
How sad.
A traitor. I have lost all respect for this sell out.
Powell, closet racist.
Who cares?....Joe The Plumber is going to endorse John McCain!!
Affirmative action in motion. As they say in my family, “$hit floats”.
Since it’s all about race, I think we should not refer to him as The One, and use his full title, The Black One.
If Obama wins how long will it take before a reparations bill is put before the Congress?
It's highly unfashionable to say this, but I think it's high time whites in this country got beyond the white guilt syndrome that has replaced open racism.
Negro slavery sucked, but white America fought a bloody war in which over a million whites died which was at least partly about the future of Negro slavery and which resulted in the ending of that slavery. That should be the end of the story. It's as if elite Americans need something to feel as guilty about as two or three generations of Germans were expected to feel about the Nazi regime, WWII and the partially successful extermination of the German jews.
The racism is pretty blatant. More blatant than the multiple comparisons to hitler/nazis.
I warn you before clicking the link. There are lots of images insinuating Obama "associated" with the likes of McVeigh and Bin laden.
Truly the scum of society over there.
Appalachian racism is likely quite difficult to overcome. Having grown up in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and experienced the uninformed, imitative racism of 9 to 17 year old children in the late 60s and early 70s, I don't find it hard to believe that less than an hour south in West Virginia deeply rooted racism might still survive.
Part of the reason I left the environment I grew up in is because I longed to find people who could see beyond the shallow ephemera of a person's exterior traits to find what lay within.
The internet has made finding a community of like-minded people much easier, and I am glad I found this site. It brings together many thoughtful people whose insightful thoughts raise the level of discourse here, which enriches us all.
I hope that an Obama/Biden administration will help heal wounds and begin to replace the habits and traditions of racism with a new legacy of tolerance and appreciation for the strengths of diversity in a complex world.
Marty Connor
Can someone explain the difference between expanded, likely and registered polling results?
I noticed that RCP is including the lower number in their averages.
why all of a sudden these numbers are being used when they weren't being used before?
Thank you.
So guys -- do you think Obama will win re-election in 2012? I'm somewhat skeptical he will, because many people are expecting him to fix things within a year and everything will be dandy again (which smarter people know is not true).
I might have to DVR several election night broadcasts just to be able to go back and watch particularly delightful reactions. I, too, believe that Pat Buchanan will be wonderful to watch. He's going to puff up with outrage until he may just explode.
The thing that will kill me is that I'll be working the polls so I won't even be able to find out what's going on until 10 or so. With the polls closing at 7:30, and with us having to count and align ballots, it could be a really long night. I'm still hoping that early voting minimizes the number of voters coming in person on 11/4
Pat's head won't explode on election night unless Obama approaches 375 EVs, Dems hit 60 Sens and Michelle Bachmann loses.
He seems to accept that Obama has this thing won. One of the reasons he gave for being angry at Powell was (loosely) he shouldn't hit him when he's down (this at a time when a lot of Obama supporters have been worried about the tightening of the race).
He's accepted Obama's victory; it would be a landslide that would make him go bonkers.
He was certain that Powell endorse Obama because he was black because why else would he turn his back on a party that had been so good to him
Yeah, the republican party has been awesome to Powell. It must have been a really great job to be SecState for the first term of Bush. Something like being the minister of agriculture for Mugabe.
n_c voter:
All just "silly" according to Pat Buchanan . . .
Los Angeles Times
Mark Jacoby, who was arrested in Ontario and owns a firm hired by the California Republican Party, violated state registration laws, authorities say.
By Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
2:38 PM PDT, October 19, 2008
SACRAMENTO -- The owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired to register tens of thousands of voters this year was arrested in Ontario late last night on suspicion of voter registration fraud.
State and local investigators allege that Mark Jacoby fraudulently registered himself to vote at a childhood California address where he no longer lives so he would appear to meet the legal requirement that signature gatherers be eligible to vote in California.
Jacoby's arrest by state investigators and the Ontario Police Department comes after dozens of voters said they were duped into registering as Republicans by his firm, Young Political Majors, or YPM. The voters said YPM tricked them by saying they were signing a petition to toughen penalties against child molesters. The firm was paid $7 to $12 for every Californian it registered as a member of the GOP.
Several agencies had launched investigations into Jacoby's activities, including the Los Angeles County district attorney's office, which issued the warrant for his arrest earlier this month on felony charges of voter registration fraud and perjury.
Read more: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fraud20-2008oct...
If things are going fine vinny, he will win re-election, and win handily. The only times an incumbent is voted out is during times of economic struggle or if there is extraordinary circumstances.
Just remember:
Bush 2004 - reelected
Clinton 1996 - reelected
Bush 1992 - bad economy, voted out
Carter 1980 - bad economy, voted out
Ford 1976 - only reason he was voted out was lingering feelings from watergate
Nixon 1972 - reelected
Johnson 1964 - reelected
Eisenhower 1956 - reelected
Truman 1948 - reelected
FDR 1936, 1940, 1944 - reelected
Even if things are just OK, it will be a huge landslide reelection.
Can we ban people that promote their own blogs incessantly and add no substantive dialog to the discussion?
Are gambling, homophobia and racism virtues, Bill?
Buchannan on election night: "This Obama fella won because this was a 'change election'. I mean, c'mon, the President had an approval rating of 30% and the Repub name was toxic. How could he NOT win?"
That will be the narrative of the right wing idiots.
A lot of the white Appalachian racism comes from this region having been so neglected and looked down upon and not rising with the tide right at a time when it seemed to many there that blacks were being given much more help from the government. Also, the area (unlike the deeper South) does not have as much black population, and thus much less interaction and the sense of blacks as outsiders/different.
Another comment on MTP that made me laugh was when they asked if Mc should buy blocks of time like O did. I believe it was Andrea Mitchell who said basically "I don't think there's that much time left. Obama already bought all of the time available between now and the election."
I'm so proud of all of O's donors!!!!
I forgot "Reagan 1984" but you get the point.
Re: 2012
Obama knows exactly what he has to do. You should all read the article in today's NYT magazine - excerpt below:
(good night all)
“I am convinced that if there were no Fox News, I might be two or three points higher in the polls,” Obama told me. “If I were watching Fox News, I wouldn’t vote for me, right? Because the way I’m portrayed 24/7 is as a freak! I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal. Who wants somebody like that?
“I guess the point I’m making,” he went on, “is that there is an entire industry now, an entire apparatus, designed to perpetuate this cultural schism, and it’s powerful. People want to know that you’re fighting for them, that you get them. And I actually think I do. But you know, if people are just seeing me in sound bites, they’re not going to discover that. That’s why I say that some of that may have to happen after the election, when they get to know you.”
Hearing him say this a second time, it seemed to me a remarkable admission — if not a retreat from his driving vision, then at least a deferral. Normally, in political campaigns, you hope people get to know you and then decide to vote for you; Obama now believed that perhaps only the inverse was possible. Once, he might have thought that if he could only win a bunch of red states and pile up 350 electoral votes, he could obliterate the red-blue paralysis of the last decade and wield his mandate like a machete against the culture warriors in Washington. Now, it seemed, he understood that even a Reaganesque triumph wouldn’t suddenly erase the effect of 40 years of exploiting peoples’ darkest fears or ignoring their legitimate anxieties, the twisted and bipartisan legacy of a lost political generation. If he won, Obama would likely start out as a 50-plus-1 president, no matter what the map had in store. And then the campaign would begin again.
newsfromOH said...
Another comment on MTP that made me laugh was when they asked if Mc should buy blocks of time like O did. I believe it was Andrea Mitchell who said basically "I don't think there's that much time left. Obama already bought all of the time available between now and the election."
I'm so proud of all of O's donors!!!!
Not to mention, McCain doesn't have the money to compete with Obama's ad blitz.
And, for what it's worth (nothing, I know), the "first" posts make me laugh--every time . . . kind of like a 538 tradition and it takes no space at all. Maybe it just appeals to the seriously addicted of us. I'd definitely keep them and lose the trolls any day.
If McCain doesn't win, someone KILL HIM!!!
Then all will be right again!
I have the same question as gottlob--and don't want it to get lost: is Obama's probability of victory above 0.90 in every Kerry state, or is his probability of winning the full set of Kerry states above 0.90?
Joe Scarborough is typicallt clueless on many fronts. He thinks Obama should stop competing in red states since "he doesn't need 350 EVs". I agree with Kos...he needs as many EVs as he can take.
Also, Joe thinks that Schmidt's vile campaign strategy was working and still would be if not for the economic crisis, but when the economic crisis dropped, McCain was still in the midst of his convention bounce.
Obama orders chicken, collards, baked beans, slaw and wings.
What is he having for desert?
Watermelon.
I am watching reruns of Third Rock From the Sun on TVLand.
Who would Dick Solomon endorse for President.
Champion88
That knock on your door? It's the Secret Service. Better let them in and be nice . . .
Anyone notice that the electoral vote distribution graph is showing much less noise than before? Clearly, we are in the home stretch.
I wonder now actually if Obama released his numbers today on purpose so that it would be buried under the endorsement. this way it impresses but is not the sole focus of the news cycle.
@ Dave-london
For most people Party ID is a core element, but not for all. It's not like IOLANTHE - I assume you would get the reference but for those who don't know a lot of Gilbert & Sullivan:
Every little boy and girl
That's born into this world alive Is either a little Liberal
Or a little Conservative.
Some people, not firmly anchored to their political identity, however, do shift from one label to another based on the current situation. The number of such people is not large (probably no more than 15%, but their changes are noticeable.
I suspect if yu looked at the reseradch in Britain it would show a similar effect.
@PeixeGato: I don't like Buchanan at all, and I'm a major Obama supporter (Work in campaign), but he's right. This is a change election, and any Republican would face a very hard uphill battle against any Democrat. I feel reasonably certain that If Sen. Obama were not a person of color, he would be doing considerably better in the polls, and this election wouldn't even be this close.
these numbers are good, but I can't get excited yet. I live in Los Angeles, and I'll tell you that people here are going to Nevada in droves to get people out to vote.
lat, NOTHING the Obama camp releases, or the timing of the release, is by chance.
I wonder now actually if Obama released his numbers today on purpose so that it would be buried under the endorsement. this way it impresses but is not the sole focus of the news cycle.
I like how the endorsement comes right after Palin's SNL appearance, as it nudges the latter to the backburner.
It's some payback for the Palin pick neutralizing Obama's phenomenal convention acceptance speech.
For those who asked about the probability issue with the Kerry States:
That 90.94% refers to the probability that each and every one of those states goes for Obama. The probabilities for the individaul states can be seen either from the chart down the left or the details for the states down the right.
I rather like that RCP cherry-picks their numbers in a GOP-leaning way, because in a sense they become a measure of the worst-case scenario. Given that reliability of voting machines is still very much an open question, those numbers may well be a more accurate gauge of what the vote counts will actually look like. (With luck, Obama's massive GOTV advantage will counteract the GOP Diebold advantage, which I calculate to be around 3%. It's the Diebold Effect rather than the Bradley Effect that everyone should be worried about... — Especially since the Bradley Effect will make an effective cover story for the Diebold Effect.)
"Champion88
That knock on your door? It's the Secret Service. Better let them in and be nice . . ."
lol...just in time for dinner!
and how could they get here so fast?
I live in the predominantly Democratic town of Shaker Heights in Cuyahoga County in Northeast Ohio. I have seen many McCain/Palin signs while driving around Shaker and surroundings towns. Of course, I've seen more Obama signs, but the amount of McCain signs is disturbing. These people are not demoralized, they are not ready to give up, and there are more of them than you think.
Give money to Obama NOW.
LAT
I had exactly the same thought (the campaign wanted to bury the money story).
Now the only people paying attention are in the McCain campaign...
I wonder if the Obama campaign at some point might say stop contributing, give to the DNC or local candidates (if they do, it needs to be very soon to be effective).
jakam said...
Joe Scarborough is typicallt clueless on many fronts. He thinks Obama should stop competing in red states since "he doesn't need 350 EVs". I agree with Kos...he needs as many EVs as he can take.
Also, Joe thinks that Schmidt's vile campaign strategy was working and still would be if not for the economic crisis, but when the economic crisis dropped, McCain was still in the midst of his convention bounce.
I saw that this morning too. Joe is an idiot. Plain and simple. Who is he to give advice to any campaign about anything? And why does his opinion of what the Obama campaign should be doing matter to anyone but himself? On the MTP panel this morning, they had Joe and Brooks (two vocal conservatives) and then two other journalists who were quite neutral in their analysis. Is that balance? Gimme a break.
agreed sherwick.
Sean/Ned
Please ban Champion88 and forward his contact information to the Secret Service. This is a disgrace to the site. He went even further than he/she did a few days ago.
jricher said...
@PeixeGato: I don't like Buchanan at all, and I'm a major Obama supporter (Work in campaign), but he's right. This is a change election, and any Republican would face a very hard uphill battle against any Democrat. I feel reasonably certain that If Sen. Obama were not a person of color, he would be doing considerably better in the polls, and this election wouldn't even be this close
My point was that Buchannan is trying to say that Obama didn't have anything to do with the fact that he won. That he won because people hate Bush and the Repub party right now. by saying that, he is denying Obama any credit for the way he ran his campaign, the way he connected with voters, and his policies.
sfergus483...calm down, i was joking...damn, you're uptight.
i heard early voting favored obama in ohio.
also heard that early voting in FL was going repub ...
in a way i hate early voting (i voted early)
Where did you hear that? Early voting in Florida starts tomorrow. I'm going in the morning.
That's not joking, Champion88.
It's a felony, and a dangerous one.
I stand by my point.
Long-time reader, first post here.
That IDB/TIPP poll has McCain winning the 18-24 demographic 52-42. Now that is complete bullshit.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY7.htm
The 18-24 group in this poll has swung crazy, too. Makes no sense, and I don't believe it for a minute.
Oct 13: 66 O, 26 M
Oct 14: 74 O, 21 M
Oct 15: 65 O, 32 M
Oct 16: 42 O, 50 M
Oct 17: 38 O, 53 M
Oct 18: 43 O, 51 M
Oct 19: 42 O, 52 M
>Who would Dick Solomon endorse for President.
Denny Crane
(1) Everyone, don't give up on Ohio. It's nice that Obama doesn't need it, but we can still pull it out, here.
(2) Vinny -- the first concern troll for 2012? Seriously, assuming Obama wins, the Repubs will be able to blame everything that actually does go wrong on the Dems, and will probably make up some stuff too, but their party looks to be in deep trouble at the moment.
I refuse to think about 2012 until at least January 22, 2009!
Nate:
Two useful things you could do for silent, but ever present statistical wonks like myself.
1) Nice that you now report the daily statistical mode which you can see in the simulations. However on a hot link it would be useful to list the blue states won in the five most frequent modes.
2) Alert us to the likely polls that will be coming on the following day. At least those which we know are coming.
3) Too bad the model can't tell us where the residuals from its state- by-state regression are highest relative to the mean prediction. That would tell us something about the locations for which it is hungry for data to fill in the puzzle. For instance, when will we ever see other Arkansas/North Dakota/Montana polls where the model seems to be toying with and quite ambivalent. In particular, the model seems VERY sensitive relative to Indiana, even with a lot of data! Pretty interesting.
Thanks for the big effort this season. Gives those who use statistical inference comfort to see such things done with some rigor.
Oops! Make that three things!
Republican talking points memo for today: Powell chose race over country.
sfergus, just wanted to thank you for your insightful discussion of difficulties in Appalachia. A lot of people who have never been to the most rural parts of America don't understand the difficult conditions of these areas, their frustration at being patronized or labeled as ignorant, and the fact that government has really left those areas behind since Reagan. I don't think this excuses racism, but I think we should all realize that racist beliefs come from somewhere and that certain groups in power are advantaged by keeping them alive and well.
sherwick--that is the most depressing thing I have heard all day. surely this will backfire no?
SHERWICK said...
Republican talking points memo for today: Powell chose race over country.
I find it interesting that they are going to make this case. They just don't get it, do they? Nobody accused Lieberman for endorsing McCain over Obama (whose in the party that Liebermann caucuses with) because McCain was the white guy. Why then, is the assumption made that Powell endorsed Obama because he is the black guy? I know I am preaching to the choir and that most Americans won't see it this way, but the fact that the Repugs will play this card is just dispicable. It also proves Powell's point to a T.
What a bunch of idiots.
Hermance -
And actions have consequences. Al Gore came out of a state (although his roots were solidly DC) that overlaps a bit with Appalachia. He really could have done something to champion the region when he was VP. If he had, he would have won WV, and become president.
In retrospect, it seems like a huge missed opportunity (not that the area should only be thought of for the political advantages it could have provided).
Too bad the model can't tell us where the residuals from its state- by-state regression are highest relative to the mean prediction. That would tell us something about the locations for which it is hungry for data to fill in the puzzle. For instance, when will we ever see other Arkansas/North Dakota/Montana polls where the model seems to be toying with and quite ambivalent. In particular, the model seems VERY sensitive relative to Indiana, even with a lot of data! Pretty interesting.
Agreed. I'd like to understand how Arkansas drifted into the 30s without any poll in AR showing Obama leading, while two or three polls showing Obama tied or better in ND never lifted Obama as high as 30% there.
@ Dave-london
Party ID is used as a means to ensure that the poll sample is reflective of the population. I think the assumption is that Party ID is relatively stable, though it might have shifted significantly from say 2004 to 2008—but pollsters use it to make sure that they aren't undersampling (systemically or randomly) Dems or Repubs, which would obviously skew the results. The $100 billion dollar question, however, is what the actual Party ID percentage of the population actually is. The pollsters disagree rather significantly.
Hermance: What did Reagan do for Appalachia?
Champ:
It's no joke. People go to jail for less.
JB56:
Or even better, be put on the life-time no fly list and lose the right to possess a gun, thanks to the party of Champion's choice.
fovezer said...
Long-time reader, first post here.
That IDB/TIPP poll has McCain winning the 18-24 demographic 52-42. Now that is complete bullshit.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY7.htm
The 18-24 group in this poll has swung crazy, too. Makes no sense, and I don't believe it for a minute.
Oct 13: 66 O, 26 M
Oct 14: 74 O, 21 M
Oct 15: 65 O, 32 M
Oct 16: 42 O, 50 M
Oct 17: 38 O, 53 M
Oct 18: 43 O, 51 M
Oct 19: 42 O, 52 M
punk kids have Obamamania
fu** all the polls
we will see on Nov. 4
Ryan said...
Early voting started yesterday in Nevada.
Vote totals up 76% from 2004 in Clark County. Clark County was the only blue county in Nevada in 2004, is +127k for Democrats, and contains more than half of Nevada's registered voters.
If one searches for leading indicators of a winner, this is as good as any. Look Obama has 264 just about locked up. (in order to not get at least 264, McCain would have to win one of New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, 1 district in Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Washington, or Oregon. All of those seem like extreme longshots at this point. That leaves Obama needing 5 electoral votes to tie. Obama is almost certain to win the popular vote. 269-269 tie in the electoral college with a win in the popular vote would leave the House of Representatives to decide the President and there's almost no way they'd pick McCain. So, Obama needs any one of Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, North Dakota + Montana to get to 269.
Nevada has 85% of their state population in Clark County (Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno). Clark County (the largest) is light blue. Washoe county is pure tossup. The other 15% is deep red. The state went to Bush by 20,000 votes in 2004. The Dems have gained a net of 50,000+ in newly registered voters. Most of them are in Clark County. Enthusiastic voters are only worth 1 vote and you can only vote once, but if the GOTV effort in Vegas is translating into overwhwelming early voting, that likely means the Dems are getting out their vote much better than 2004. There's not a lot of places for the GOP to turn to counter that. It's the most urban city in the country with 85% in Clark and Washoe Counties. The state went heavily to Romney in the primaries, they don't particularly like McCain, the Yucca mountain/nuclear energy thing doesn't help him much either. When and if McCain loses Nevada, I think the election is over, regardless of the voodoo tricks he hopes to pull off in all of the other states he needs.
nkpolitics1279 said...
I am watching reruns of Third Rock From the Sun on TVLand.
good way to spend the time
hahahaha
cletus,
Fascinating. I live in Brecksville and it's usually a sea of Rep signs. Driving down the main road today, I saw 2, count 'em 2, houses with McCain signs and no fewer than 8 with Obama signs. It's important to note that Obama signs are not at all pushed around here so you REALLY have to want one to get one.
The O signs are popping up like mums these days. Never before have I seen this.
@NCVoter
The maybe strangest thing about all of that is the McVeigh type comparisons.
However the Palin connection to the AIP is more troubling, considering that the AIP is associated with many of the militia movements throughout the country - let us not forget McVeigh was a part of the militia movement.
Palin endorses the AIP and say "keep up the good work". So instead drawing a comparison between Obama and McVeigh seems off base - they obviously meant Palin.
This stuff is just further proof that some people will believe anything they hear. Further reinforcing our need for a change from the near 40 reign of the GOP.
@peixegato: my husband and I sent e-mails to NBC about what a disgrace MTP has become. As the debate reinforced, Brokaw is a poorly informed windbag, who cares more about his own pedestrian analysis of the “facts” than about what anyone has to say. His questions to Powell were borderline ridiculous, and the panel was a joke. He didn’t even let them talk to each other (though, since they are all right leaners, they probably would have just agreed with one another and then say that McCain really is a good guy and it’s not his fault that his campaign is abysmal), but he kept asking new questions (replete with considerable misinformation) after one person answered his previous question. It was awful. (At one point he even said the Weather Underground was the most radical group in American history, which is a patently ludicrous statement.) I was never a huge Russert fan, but the guy knew politics. Brokaw is another pretty face who has bought into his own PR that just because is old he is somehow an elder statesman of highbrow journalism.
As for pundit pontificating: I’m sick of these claims that Obama is winning because (1) this election favors the non-Republican and (2) the economic crisis. As to 1, it was perfectly within McCain’s bounds to run as an outsider to the party. Instead, he’s run a mishmash of identity messages—starting off mavericky in the primaries, veering hard right, and then vacillating ever since. As for 2, how on Earth is being competent during an economic crisis somehow a given for Obama and an impossibility for McCain? Shouldn’t a person running for president know how to deal with the economy, and aren’t we justified to criticize McCain for his bungling and be impressed by Obama’s approach? These two pieces of “insight” as to why Obama is winning infuriate me to no end, and they are definitely the CW out there, repeated as pure fact, like McCain had no power over his image or his economic knowledge.
http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/story?id=6066689&page=1
I confess. I am not a big fan of George Will or Newt Gingrich but their presence on this video makes it twice as powerful. Obviously, everyone is happy about the Colin Powell endorsement, but even better is the analysts take on what it means. In a nutshell, it said to our Republican friends that,
1: The experience argument is gone.
2: The foreign policy concern is gone.
3: The partisan governing fight saying that Obama will simply cave to the whims of Pelosi are calmed.
4: w.r.t. McCain’s claim that you judge a man by who he surrounds himself by – I see Warren Buffett & Colin Powell
Watch this clip… awesome
http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/story?id=6066689&page=1
eric
McCain will NOT win NV
@jslater: Reagan ushered in the era of "government doesn't do anything right" and killed a bunch of uplift programs. So, for the past 30 years, nothing much has been done for Appalachia or many other rural parts of the country--particularly the impoverished rural areas, which are in Appalachia and the south, primarily. So, my point wasn't that Reagan did anything good--more that he was the advent of declining government presence.
He played on racist sentiments and then gave that area nothing. So, his tactics had a double whammy: they underfunded those areas and then convinced those people that government was incompetent. Anymore, people think of government as what you encounter at the DMV or post office. I think that's because of Reagan. He and other conservatives conveniently ignore things like roads, clean drinking water, schools, and police. So, in that vein, why would anyone want to pay taxes, since it "just screws everything up"? When government had a more positive and visible force in rural areas, it was harder to make these anti-government/anti-tax arguments, which as we all know from Joe the Plumber actually hurt the working class rather than help--and yet they support them anyway.
Real Joe said...
eric
McCain will NOT win NV
That's my point Real Joe. I've been thinking for the last 3 months or so it's more flippable than any tipping point. If Obama wins Nevada, I don't see a reasonable path for McCain. The only conceivable alternative I see at that point is for somewhere in the blue Midwest/Northeast a state has the Bradley Effect. Even in that scenario, McCain has to hold everything else. I think if Obama wins Nevada he's about 99% to win the election. Real Joe, you've been conservative troll-like at times right?
I wouldn't write off WV. Obama internals must show something there. Much of the state was already seeing his ads and the $5M buy there might just turn it with the strong union support he is getting.
With the war chest he has taking a shot here with the race trending his way this could be a good investment.
He is back up here in GA and we are going to bring it home...trust me
lisa,
For me, the most striking part of the abc clip is that Newt Gingrich seemed reasonable. I remember when he was the personification of the evil far right, yet the GOP moved so much further than Gingrich is now a centrist. May I be excused, my brain is full from that wild flip of reality?
Hermance: Got it, thanks. I agree.
Newt is already running for for 2012 and needs to be a more reasonable. He is very smart and it will be interesting to see his evolution.
(2) Vinny -- the first concern troll for 2012? Seriously, assuming Obama wins, the Repubs will be able to blame everything that actually does go wrong on the Dems, and will probably make up some stuff too, but their party looks to be in deep trouble at the moment.
Concern troll? Why the hell would I be concern trolling for 2012? That's just stupid.
I honestly think no matter who wins (which, as we all know, is most likely going to be Obama) is going to be blamed for not snapping their fingers and making the economy better. It will just be the way dumb Americans interpret things.
For me, the most striking part of the abc clip is that Newt Gingrich seemed reasonable. I remember when he was the personification of the evil far right, yet the GOP moved so much further than Gingrich is now a centrist.
Nah, Gingrich started out as the "new republican" leader of the 1994 "contract for america" brand. They were technocrats and deficit hawks and etc... As all that sort of thing isn't that much fun and doesn't really excite talk radio land he got egged on into becoming a reactionary, radioactive, troll that no one wanted to be associated with.
He's gone back to his roots and wants to be that guy from 1994, the media all loved and thought was the smartest guy in Washington.
eric
i'm not a troll
as a republican i supported McCain because of his tax cuts
Obama is going to win
its bad news for me but what can you do
:-(
Looks like McCain's supposed momentum went wayward once the public got bored of the Joe the Plumber story. In all seriousness there probably wasn't a trend, just a few voters that were always going to go Republican coming home for McCain.
And Zogby is really going off the deep end. Using the same weighting of Democrats and Republicans from 2004 for this year is just stupid. Does he even want to be a credible pollster anymore? I guess Gallup does the same thing for one of their sets of data, but at least they give multiple sets of numbers with context.
Wow, never thought he'd admit it. Perhaps he had a senior moment and forgot he was on TV? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_MRanG6kqU
Real Joe said...
eric
i'm not a troll
as a republican i supported McCain because of his tax cuts
Obama is going to win
its bad news for me but what can you do
:-(
Just out of curiosity,
Do you
A) make over $600,000 a year
B) believe in trickle down economics
C) both
Obama's tax policy seems to be better to me in every way. I just wonder why you consider it bad.
By the way "deficit hawks" are the most dangerous people out there right now. They are a bi-partisan phenomenon and I think Obama is making a huge mistake giving them even rhetorical support.
Joe worrying about his taxes is small shit compared to what would actually happen to the American economy if McCain got his spending freeze or any of the rest of his bullcrap right now.
Vinny: I was just joking about the concern troll thing. Sorry that it wasn't clear.
I agree that Obama will have some real problems to deal with, and the Repubs will be quick to blame him. On the other hand, I think the Repubs really will be in disarray.
On another topic, I am loving the fact that right now, pollster.com has the incumbent R Saxby Chamblis TRAILING the Dem challenger! It shows Martin with 45.8% and Chamblis with 45.3%. While this is a statistical tie, the fact that Chamblis isn't cruising to victory is quite telling. The Dems could very well take this seat too!
And if you look at MS, Musgrove is within 1.5% of Wicker!
With those 2 seats, plus AK, MN, OR, NC, NH, CO, NM, and VA, the Dems would control 61 seats if you include Lieberman. This would allow the Dems to kick lame-ass Lieberman to the curb where he belongs and STILL have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate!
Oh, and for anyone who hasn't seen this:
http://palinaspresident.us/
FUNNIEST WEBSITE EVER!!
The funniest things are "where'd russia go?" the red phone, and "drill baby drill!"
sorry I had red somewhere that both Newt and Will had said the Powell endorsed because of race so this is not the case?
News alert: McCain may launch another Economic Plan tomorrow.
lat, neither of them said it in the video I just watched.
Wow, never thought he'd admit it. Perhaps he had a senior moment and forgot he was on TV? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_MRanG6kqU
A "cold political calculation"? You mean he didn't put "country first"?
I definitely agree that Newt is already running for 2012 and will be an attractive candidate for the GOP because he can bridge their weird divide between religious zealots and fiscal conservatives.
I disagree that he or his image have ever changed that much. He was always crazy, but also intelligent--I think that mix between crazy and intelligent confuses those on the left, makes us think these people can't possibly believe their insane pronouncements.
Later on This Week, Gingrich said some patently stupid stuff about Clinton in 1993-94, and watching him and Steph-o go round and round about it for a minute was a horrible time warp. It made me *so* glad that Clinton is not in this race.
If people like Powell are right that Obama represents a new generation of leadership (not because he is different but because he is at the very edge of the Boomers), then I think it will be hard for folks like Gingrich to get back in again in 4 years. He may end up like Cheney and be a VP candidate to a currently unknown upstart.
I don't think that candidate will be Palin. The intellectual and business elite of the right wing will mark her as the scapegoat for their loss. She might lead a faction of the party eventually, but I seriously doubt it. I think this is going to play out a lot like Dem losses--where the loser is banished into the wilderness and treated like political kryptonite for years. It took Al Gore winning a Nobel Prize. I don't see that kind of future for Palin. The party is already setting itself up to forgive McCain, but I don't think Palin will be so lucky. And I wouldn't be surprised if she can't win a second term in Alaska. I don't expect they have taken very kindly to having Washington invade their state.
On another topic, I am loving the fact that right now, pollster.com has the incumbent R Saxby Chamblis TRAILING the Dem challenger
I've hated that joker with a white passion since 2002 and the nasty smear job he did on Max Cleland. Just losing his Senate seat isn't good enough for that guy.
YEAH MCCAIN LEADS IN WV!!
SUCK IT LIBS!
I also see Indiana is STILL RED!
North Carolina is WHITE, but the REAL NORTH CAROLINA will vote en masse. NC will never vote for a SOCIALIST. I should know, I live here.
You libs can't win in the REAL AMERICA!
"Ok, I don't like to gear my material to the audience but I'd like to
make an exception because I was told that there is a convention of
plumbers in San Francisco this week - I understand about 30 of them
came down to the show tonight - so before I came out I worked-up a
joke especially for the plumbers. Those of you who aren't plumbers
probably won't get this and won't think it's funny, but I think those
of you who are plumbers will really enjoy this...
This lawn supervisor was out on a sprinkler maintenance job and he
started working on a Findlay sprinkler head with a Langstrom 7" gangly
wrench. Just then, this little apprentice leaned over and said, "You
can't work on a Findlay sprinkler head with a Langstrom 7" wrench."
Well this infuriated the supervisor, so he went and got Volume 14 of
the Kinsley manual, and he reads to him and says, "The Langstrom 7"
wrench can be used with the Findlay sprocket." Just then, the little
apprentice leaned over and said, "It says sprocket not socket!"
-Steve Martin
"Let's Get Small"
REAL NORTH CAROLINA will vote en masse. NC will never vote for a SOCIALIST. I should know, I live here.
You may need to consider a move to OK.
Regarding Republicans, let's say God forbid a Republican wins one of the next three Preisdential elections, who is scarier, someone that knows what they're doing and will screw everythingup or someone that is clueless and has their administration run by everyone around them
Example of people with a clue:
Romney
Gingrich
Jindal
without a clue:
McCain
Palin
Bush Jr.
You libs can't win in the REAL AMERICA!
That's okay. All we need is "fake america" to win the white house. =)
Also, Palin steals her campaign strategy from Family Guy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVQDaRQmnno
eric
i can't disclose my financial details online
my financial adviser told me that my taxes will go up with the Obama tax plan
Libs, if B. Hussein Obama wins NC I will eat my hat on YouTube.
He can't win here. There will be a BIG Bradley Effect in NC. I remember when you libs thought that black democrat would beat Jesse Helms (God rest is soul) but SURPRISE! he lost!
Hey newsfromOH,
We live right on the edge of Beachwood and Shaker, so I think I got a little freaked out driving around Beachwood today, where one sees more Republicans, typically. I am certain, however, that many of our neighbors here in Shaker will vote for McCain. It amazes me that people who seem so outwardly successful and educated, could in reality be so unreasonable and senseless.
This is why I will remain cautious and skeptical until election day. This talk of a "landslide" and the things people have said about 2012 are premature and unwise.
Libs, if B. Hussein Obama wins NC I will eat my hat on YouTube.
Where?
I wanna see this.
So we're not getting Selzer's numbers for Indiana today? Might we get them tomorrow?
I'll upload it. But it won't happen. So I feel confident. REAL confident, libs.
A MARXIST SOCIALIST will not win NORTH CAROLINA, the home of JESSE HELMS!
You'll vanish and never be heard from again. I've done business with conservatives before, you don't take a check.
Blow it out your ass. Ed M. McCain WINS NORTH CAROLINA!
Look up the 1990 Senate election. You thought you would beat Jesse Helms then
DISSAPOINTMENT! LIBS!
I'm not at all surprised by the results in West Virginia.
The key thing to take away from this is that it looks like the ARG poll caused several days of consternation in their camp, and hopefully this translated to them blowing some unnecessary funds to defending a state that didn't need defending.
I'll be here ALL ELECTION NIGHT, count on it, liberal fascists!
Palin/Cleese 2012
"Wanda?"
you know real joe I find it really mind blowing that someone could vote on such an issue as taxes exclusively. sorry to say but that is simplistic in the extreme--so you don't mind if the rest of the country is going to hell as long as you don;t have to pay more taxes? really?
alright, well, get yer webcam ready, my friend.
I'll make a side bet on you welching with someone.
Yeah lib. It will be like 1990 aLL OVER AGAIN.
Socialist.
al Joe said...
eric
i can't disclose my financial details online
my financial adviser told me that my taxes will go up with the Obama tax plan
Fair enough, let's just say if you make between $600k and $1.5MM I understand if your #1 issue is taxes and you want to keep as much as possible. If on the other hand you make either 0-$600,000 or $1.5MM+, not wanting to vote for Obama because of taxes is absurd to me. The Rpeublicans mortgage our future. We have unsustainable $10 trillion in debt. Programs McCain has suggested cost $5 trillion. Programs OBama has suggested cost $3.5 trillion. Obama's tax base will be a little larger and cover it. McCain's will be smaller and he'll be over $2 trillion in the hole. McCain doesn't pay for his plans. Obama does. 95% of folks will get a tax cut under Obama's plan and pay less than under McCain's. At the same time, the $3.5 trillion Obama plans on spending is money well spent ofr things that we need and will help all of us. Taxes for those whose income is between $250k and $600k will average less than $6000 more under Obama's plan than McCain's. It's closer to $1000-2000 if you make between $250-350k and $2000-3000 if you make between $350-450k. That's negligible. If you make over $600k, you'd pay about 5% more in taxes. If you make more than $1.5 million you shouldn't care. If you make between $600k and $1.5 million your taxes will revert back to those under clinton and lower than under Reagan. This country will be saved for the most minimal of sacrifices. For those making under $250k, taxes go down and are lower than under Bush Jr. or McCain. Obama's fiscal policy is far superior.
i'm not a troll
as a republican i supported McCain because of his tax cuts
Obama is going to win
its bad news for me but what can you do
:-(
So, you're just someone who puts your own economic interest above your country's.
In response to McInsane's new economic plan? Yawn. How many has he had now?
Check this out. Kind of undermines their spin about Fannie/Freddie (and therefore the dems) being responsible for the housing crisis.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/19/freddie-mac-paid-gop-cons_n_135995.html
Joe doesn't make that kind of money, he or his financial advisor don't believe Obama will do what he says he will do. There is no arguing with that.
I think the likely voter models of the state polls will underestimate the turnout rate of African Americans and young voters. I believe they will be a larger portion of the electorate and will go to Obama and bigger margins than expected. With Obama's campaign ground game, the money advantage and the seemingly narrowing polls translating to a urgency among Democrats it will likely swing states like Georgia, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia towards Obama. I'd even think Arkansas could be close.
lol arjuna74--seems we are on the same page!
Liberal Fascists, now there's a historically educated person.
right wing conspiricist said...
I'll be here ALL ELECTION NIGHT, count on it, liberal fascists!
i will be here also
:-)
Yeah lib. It will be like 1990 aLL OVER AGAIN.
That is so full of wingnut win, I'm just going to assume you got a sockpuppet.
"I am the latte-sipping, New York Times-reading, Volvo-driving, no-gun-owning, effete, politically correct, arrogant liberal."
Wow, Obama just described me very well. I don't drink coffee often, but when I do it's a latte. I read the New York Times. I drive a Volvo. I don't own a gun. I'm a liberal. Good job, Sen. Obama. Just one more reason for me to like you.
Another point I'd like to make. I grew up in SE Ohio (Steubenville) and lived there until around 6th grade. Both of my parents graduated from high school there. It truly is a racist area, and although the economy is absolutely dreadful in that part of the state, I think a lot of people there would still choose McCain simply for the fact that he's not African American. I could be wrong. I haven't been back there in some time, but that was the general consensus when I was there. As an example, there was a kid that I went to school with. I went over to his house one time, and on his computer he had the game "Dr. J vs. Larry Bird" (it was the early '80s). His older brothers had hacked in and changed the name to "N***er vs. Bird." Sad.
@real joe, I really am curious, not being snarky. So, what you're saying is that you would vote for whomever wouldn't make your own personal taxes increase?
Doesn't this just meant that if the rest of the electorate used your criteria, then Obama would almost certainly win in a landslide? Is it your hope that they just won't "get" that the Obama plan benefits them more, and this will be to your advantage?
Again, I really am not trying to sound snarky, but I'm sincerely not following your line of thinking. You think you should get a bigger tax cut than the middle class, even though the nation has a $10 trillion deficit. All so that you don't pay a few more percentage points in taxes on your income over $250K?
So, again is it because you believe in trickle down? If so, why not support a flat tax candidate or Bob Barr?
RFK Jr is coming out in Rolling Stone saying the election is already stolen.
I'm here several times a day and am addicted - but our musing doesn't move numbers.
Can the OB camp deal with this?
http://www.gregpalast.com/rolling-stone-its-already-stolen/
And then there is this regarding McCain's health...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/19/new-york-times-publishing_n_136002.html
Ed M. said...
Joe doesn't make that kind of money, he or his financial advisor don't believe Obama will do what he says he will do. There is no arguing with that.
He has a STUPID financial advisor then. With a Democratic Congress and Obama talking about 95% getting a tax break for months and months, he has to and he will. A big reason Bush Sr. lost in 1992 was his lie "No new taxes". You can't break those kind of promises and Obama is not stupid. Anybody who says that he's lying is ignorant.
ed m. said...
Joe doesn't make that kind of money, he or his financial advisor don't believe Obama will do what he says he will do.
Disclosure: my financial adviser is a Obama supporter
HAHAHAHAH!!!
ROFL@RFK Jr.
He just knows his side has already lost.
OH NOES! VOTING MACHINES!
hahahahahahahhaha!
Remember Ohio 2004!!!! The RETHUGLICANS WILL STEAL IT!
ROFLMAO!
Well, then you gotta bunch of money and I don't give a shit about your tax bill :)
Whether it's a methodological flaw, I reject Mason-Dixon and PPP's polling on Ohio and West Virginia. W.Va. is highly questionable. Mason-Dixon's is pointless.
Now let's see some more polls on these states. One source, per hour!
And, damnit, bring me info on Arkansas, Lousiana, South Carolina, and South Dakota. And Georgia, Georgia, Georgia!
Right Wing Conspiricist,
Yes, the "real" North Carolina will indeed vote, and it will vote for Democratic candidates in record numbers. My colleagues, many of whom were previously apolitical, have never been more involved in an election. When one considers the essential policies at stake in this race, one cannot imagine how a sentient voter could vote for McCain. That being said, the back-country of NC has many voters bordering on catatonic. I suspect that you are a representative of that subset. Prepare to be defeated; this is a "change" election.
cody said...
RFK Jr is coming out in Rolling Stone saying the election is already stolen.
I'm here several times a day and am addicted - but our musing doesn't move numbers.
Can the OB camp deal with this?
http://www.gregpalast.com/rolling-stone-its-already-stolen/
liberals getting worried ??
As far as yard signs go here in central Ohio, Republicans will steal the signs right out of your front yard. I know, they took 2 of my Kerry/Edwards signs in '04. I'd be afraid to put one in my window for fear they'd throw a brick through it. A few days back there was a CNN? video of a Nevada GOP "lady" going around in a van taking Obama signs.
Hell, I make $152,000, and I'd be willing to pay more taxes for the common good. Just call me a bleeding-heart, do-gooder, Socialist!
The fact that we got that stimulus check last year was such a freakin' joke. We didn't need that! And if we had it wouldn't have made much of a difference. I'm no economist, but that whole scheme seemed really half-baked.
Hey guys, after a hell of a lot of searching I finally found a comprehensive list of early voting laws across the country. I imagine many of these will be influenced by the number of early voting ballots boxes open and where they're located, but it's an interesting read.
What's particularly noteworthy is that almost all of the key battleground states have early, no excuse voting at least 15 days prior to Nov 4th. Personally, given Obama's massive GOTV campaign and how much Tuesday voting disadvantages Democrats, I think this is a massive help.
http://earlyvoting.net/states/abslaws.php
real joe are you capable of writing more then 5 sentences that actually answer the questions we are asking you? we really are interested and not being snarky, you saying your financial adviser supports obama does not answer the question. so what gives? in a full paragraph.
Prepare to be defeated; this is a "change" election.
My job is media research and from every indicator that I work with, you are exactly right and RWC is in for one hell of a shock.
P.S.
If you ever get a chance tell the News and Observer that they make like hell for us with those tight margins and probably give their printing staff ulcers at the same time.
quit picking on real joe, he has the right to vote for whomever he chooses for whatever reason he wants. it is the candidates job to convince him they are the right one for him.
For me, Obama is clearly and unambiguously the right choice for me, my family and my country. And I hope real joe decides Obama is the right choice for him too!
Don't bother asking Real Joe anything. He's some 14 year old in his mother's basement. Everything he says is nonsense.
If RFK Jr. is right, the anger is the country will be about what it was in 1968 or so. It will boil over and not be pretty. The enthusiasm gap is outrageous. If you measured enthusiasm on a scale of 1-5 and gave people equivalent votes, I think the average Obama supporter would rate about a 4 and McCain about a 2. If illegally purged voter rolls by the by any means GOP caue an Obama loss, there will be hell to pay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Newt is an ideolog and a demagog. I don't see him having a prayer in 2012 against a half way competent Obama administration, and I expect a lot more than half way based on the kind of campaign he's run. The world is waiting for the USA to return to sanity and are eager for Obama to lead the way. What can Newt possibly bring that will appeal to a majority of voters?
lat said...
real joe are you capable of writing more then 5 sentences that actually answer the questions we are asking you? we really are interested and not being snarky, you saying your financial adviser supports obama does not answer the question. so what gives? in a full paragraph.
Obama will RAISE my taxes
McCain will CUT my taxes
Yeah, I concur queen. At least Real Joe isn't an incendiary idiot like many people. I got no problem with people saying they respectfully disagree.
RWC - do you ever get tired of the sound of your own words?
Trust someone you don't know just this once - your tactics for dealing with life are deeply flawed.
You are not a hero. You are alone with your computer. Get out of the house! Love someone.
With the Powell endorsement having shortish legs and McCain continuing pummelling of Obama on his socialistic tax plan and big spender ways, the race is moving back to a five percent equilibirum level.
In the process McCain may have lost FL. The housing crisis and the senior's losses on their investment portfolios will hurt him.
Elsewhere today's polls with their re-affirmation of WV and KY along with marginally good news in OH shows the beginning of a McCain comeback in the Electoral College. If FL is lost however he will need PA and the West to make up for it. A tall order. He must hold VA. A state to watch this week.
My review model as we appraoch Election Day will be to take Undecided Voters and add them to McCain. This will give credit for late deciders tendency to deny Obama and the Bradely Effect.
Yeah, but Joe, do you really think that is such an awful thing? If you're in the income bracket where Obama would raise your taxes, haven't you got enough of a cut at the expense of the entire country over the last 8 years that maybe paying a little back for the sake of the country's poorer wouldn't hurt?
I am not picking on real joe I want to have a conversation. but that is clearly not possible. I agree I rather have his posting than those of pete kent and company.
does Nate know an "800" number we can call to report violations with voter registrations?
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