In Chuck Todd we trust; all others must bring data. And right now, we're in something of a holding pattern, waiting to see the next turn in the race. Obama's momentum has possibly stalled out, but has probably yet begun to reverse itself. It's also possible that Obama's momentum was on the verge of reversing itself before Wednesday night's debate, but that the debate was enough to hold McCain off or perhaps even shift things further in Obama's direction. Furthermore, it's possible that the numbers will simply flatline until November 4 as Obama runs out McCain's clock (with no more major events on the campaign calendar, this may in fact be the most likely possibility). We will probably know a lot more about this race by Sunday or Monday, once the impacts of the debate are fully accounted for.
At the state level, we have some interesting numbers on both sides. SurveyUSA is the first pollster in a couple weeks to give McCain in Florida; they have him ahead there 49-47. On the other hand, SurveyUSA has yet to show Obama with a lead in Florida all year, so this may not be as newsworthy as it seems at first glance.
Obama, meanwhile, had a very good day in the Rasmussen polling in Colorado, Nevada and particularly Missouri. As Chuck Todd said on MSNBC a moment ago, Obama may have something of a firewall in Colorado and perhaps Nevada between his strength among Hispanics and the fact that this is probably the weakest region of the country for McCain's ground game. Missouri, meanwhile, has been working itself up the tipping point state list, as Obama's numbers has been improving recently in what we call the "Highlands" region spanning the Ozarks and Appalachians. At a gut level, I think Missouri is one of Obama's tougher states, but remember that Claire McCaskill closed strongly there in 2006, and that Obama closed strongly there on Super Tuesday.
Oh -- and another poll shows a dead heat in North Dakota. Our model remains a bit skeptical as Obama has not gained particularly much ground elsewhere in the Prairie region, but it's probably time for both the public pollsters and the campaigns to get out in the field and take the state's temperature.
10.17.2008
Today's Polls, 10/17
@ 6:47 PM
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252 comments
nth!
McCain surge!
Obama moving south quickly, first MN, IA now MO, next week AR 4/11 LA!
Guess who's been inducted into the Hypocrites Hall of Infamy?
Now, for something substantive:
To what extent do you think that the apparent boost in McCain's numbers in the "old" likely voter model for Gallup is due to that poll's history of being a bit oversensitive to measures of enthusiasm?
That's one of the problems with having a binary likely voter screen -- it's either yes or no, but in reality it should probably be continuous (i.e. one vote might be weighted at 40% and another at 60% instead of weighted as 0 [not likely voter] and 1 [likely voter]).
Thoughts, Nate?
I couldn't resist this great 538-lolpolitics mashup:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/elleword/2949191683/
Why is AP/Yahoo at the top of your national polls list with a high weighting?
Sorry for an off-topic post...but I am planning an election party in the U.K, and was wanderting what time (E.S.T.) you fellow 538ers think I should call people round so that we can catch the first result? 7 p.m. EST? Or even earlier/later?
Any tips for an election party would be appreciated, as it is my first time organising one (including drinking games)
P.S. There is an excellent piece in the LA Times about why Florida is a better better for Obama than Ohio...do check it out...very interesting read!
Echoing John Vance; that AP/Yahoo poll is 9 days old. Is that a typo?
What a bounty of riches - when McCain approaches 6% in chances of winning the election, it's drastic and disturbing.
SurveyUSA is to Floriad what Rasmussen Reports had been, prior to this week, with Ohio: McCain Advantage. Even when others were showing varied, different results. I'd go ahead and add three points to every poll they conduct … toward Obama.
The Rasmussen numbers should turn up as the part ID changes over the next two weeks. I'm guessing an ID change of about 1.5% +D this week, based on a comparison of the Sept. numbers with the 6-week numbers. Then about 1.5% the next week. The final pre-election numbers won't quite catch up with the recent data, because the 6-week period is too long. Ras should use a more sophisticated time-weighting scheme for ID./mbw
If anyone had said even just a few weeks ago that North Dakota would be a dead heat 18 days from election day... we would've insisted they share the weed.
Rich
games-
I think that is a vaery interesting idea and one I would love to see tried.
The Gallup "old model" is using 2004 numbers (as is Zogby?) where the repub numbers were at historic highs. We may not be to the point of R2000, but we aure are not at 2004 party IDs.
Interesting indeed, Colin Powell on MTP Sunday and if he endorses Obama it will aid in running out the clock and fully validating him to some moderate conservatives. Monday will be the day to watch folks.
Survey USA does not normalize for party ID, but does for cohorts correct? Would that be the cause of the consistent FL McCain lead in SUSA polls?
The internals on SurveyUSA's Florida numbers are way screwy.
22% AA for McCain!? Give me a break. Bush only got 13% in 2004.
Normalize that and you're back to a slight Obama lead, just like everyone else.
Once again the models thinks independently of Nate. It's alive!
Aman said...
Any tips for an election party would be appreciated, as it is my first time organising one (including drinking games)
A LOT of booze.
A nice healthy swig of champagne when Obama gets a state called for him; a nice unhealthy swig of Pabst Blue Ribbon (or some other swill beer) when McCain gets a state called for him.
At the end of the night, you'll either be bubbly happy off the champagne or feeling like crap because of the swill...
That AP/Yahoo poll looks to have a weighting that is WAY too heavy. What's up with that?
Aren't we missing a North Dakota poll? There have been 3 in the last week, Obama +2 (Forum; listed), TIED (R2K; listed), and O+3 by NDUTU yesterday, which is not listed.
That's 3 polls in the last week, plus close polls before the GOP convention that this race as a toss-up.
Thirding questions about the high rating for the "Drudge poll". I was expecting sub-Zogby territory!
Anyway, these polls are GREAT NEWS!! For the United States of America.
Lou Dobbs is jumping on the Drudge bandwagon - his teaser for his show tonight just reported that Obama is slipping, cause Gallup has reported 2 days in a row that his lead is only 2 points.
aman-
Later, the polls in the big east coast states won't start close until 8 EST, and then an hour or two before folks start calling states. So, schedule for 8 EST with hope of the party rolling by 9 or 10?
The SUSA FL poll has a lot of problems. It shows lower AA turn out and support for Obama than for Kerry in 04.
It also has more repubs than democrats - not correct.
Few other problems - too many men and too many seniors.
If we could only convince people that McCain has no intentions of changing the legality of abortion, I bet our Popular Vote numbers would go up significantly.
Although, Palin would probably give it a try.
The Upper Midwest like North Dakota isn't particularly comparable to the Prairie to its south. Most notable on the internals of the North Dakota poll is that in Eastern North Dakota, Obama is up by 11. Its two media markets extend deep into Minnesota. The Red River Valley is much more similar to northern Minnesota than to Kansas or Oklahoma.
No, Nate, you don't understand. We want McCain's win percentage to be inching DOWN a little every day, not UP. You can make The Model do that for us, can't you, Nate? Nate?
I am surprised that the Mississippi results aren't more worthy of comment. If MS and GA are only 10 and 6 points behind, it seems unlikely that Florida could be any amount behind. Of course, it isn't that good of a comparison, since MS and GA are presumably being driven forward by AA voters, but that means that the white conservative votes in those states is just barely enough to keep a lead. Which means the white conservative vote in Florida, which is mostly in the panhandle, must not be able to shift things much at all.
rant PSA thingy:
Please for gods sake just ignore any trolls that pass by. Recently some of the threads have been getting hard to read, because of troll behaviour. So if you can, please don't feed the trolls(ignore them) I apologize if I sound patronizing, but man I really enjoy the conversation here, I don't want it to be ruined.
John Vance said...
Why is AP/Yahoo at the top of your national polls list with a high weighting?
Yeah, that is weird. I can't imagine how a poll that's a week older than the Rasmussen and with just over half the sample size could so that close in weight (1.40 AP-Yahoo vs. 1.71 Rasmussen).
Is that correct, Nate, or is AP-Yahoo's accuracy measure really that much higher than Rasmussen's?
I'm wondering if we will see any effect from the recent Newspaper endorsements. I think Obama has gotten 18 this week (mcCain zero)
total to date:
McCain - 16
Obama - 51
Uhm...weren't you just criticizing that Yahoo poll earlier?
Brad - thank you, that is very helpful!
It could be a long night, but by God could it be a historic occasion!
What gives me the most hope is the clustering of the trend line daily average dots at the top of the screen as compared with the scattered daily average dots in the early part of the graph. I'm assuming those are national figures? Or is it state combinants to reach the electoral votes needed? That makes difference.
A question. If Obama is doing so well why was he in New Hampshire yesterday and Virginia today? Both McCain's and Obama's internal data is telling a different story.
There is at least one more major media event planned. The 1/2 prime-time media by for Obama late Oct.
Expect that to keep numbers close to what they are now.
Interesting news: In addition to the LA Times, SF Chronicle, Boston Globe, and Washington Post, the Chicago Tribune (!!!) has just declared its endorsement for Barack Obama. This is historic, folks.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-chicago-tribune-endorsement,0,1371034.story
As a number of people pointed out on the last thread, the SUSA FL poll has unusual party ID weightings that don't match up with what's going on in other polls of the state.
Hard to say yet whether Obama is experiencing a bit of a downturn (buyer's remorse? remaining undecideds being McCain leaners?) or whether it was mostly a bad night of polling during the third debate. He had some poor results the night of the second debate too, if I remember correctly. The state polls today largely suggest that it isn't much of a downturn.
That's easy.
New Hampshire = The one state that showed Obama way ahead, but actually that Clinton won.
Virginia = He doesn't have this locked up yet. Plus, it pretty much guarantees him a victory if he gets it, so why WOULDN'T he go there?
Why is the AP-Yahoo poll given such a high weighting? Didn't Nate blast this poll earlier today?
And I see that Datamar is still in business. They tried to be a major pollster in California, but their results were worse than Zogby.
Violation of separation of church and state occurring in California:
But while the world watches the critical presidential match, there is another high-stakes culture being waged, pitting the gay community against the Religious Right. It is the battle over Proposition 8, an initiative on the California ballot that would eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry.
By the end of September, Yes on 8 raised $25.4 million, compared to $15.7 million for the No on Prop. 8 campaign, according to the California secretary of state website. The Mormon Church alone contributed $9,072,329 as of October 14, according to Mormonsfor8.com.
For gay people and their allies, the battle is not only about retaining the "fundamental" right to marry, as the California Supreme Court ruled May 15; it is also about not letting the majority vote to take away an existing right of the minority and thus adding to other disgraceful moments in American history, such as when the country tolerated Jim Crow laws and the Japanese internment, to name a few examples.
http://www.alternet.org/sex/103041/conservatives_push_hard_for_gay_marriage_ban/?comments=view&cID=1035496&pID=1035181#c1035496
For any out-of-towners or those not familiar with the paper, the Tribune is a dead-lock GOP nominator. Offhand, I'm not even sure that they supported either Clinton term.
I agree with Todd's assessment of Coloardo, Nevada, and New Mexico as firewalls. I see McCain's scare tactics and dog-whistle crap possibly getting Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and NC back, but Obama's huge leads in Penn, Wisc. N.H., and Iowa combined with taking Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico will give him the win.
Western voters are fundamentally different that Eastern voters as well. We saw Obama's dominance in the mountain west, where race isn't a big factor. Even though Colorado is closer than Virginia, it's going to be a lot harder for McCain to change minds there.
We are going to win GA, it will be the shock of election night, just watch. Either that or WV. Like a friend of mine said, it will put the MAN in mandate.
Whether the polls are +2% or +7% is debatable...but the good news for the Dems, this stops us from getting complacent and assures that we get the vote out.
It is a complete stomach turner to imagine for a second that Palin could actually be a heartbeat away...if this is not motivation to get out the vote...
Has anyone else noticed that the beginning of Obama's huge momentum boom on the super tracker chart coincides with the demarcation for "9/11"? It kinda threw me off a bit, like a weird deja vu or something. I don't know.
Two and a half weeks! Go Obama!
Good catch, Will! Even though Obama's from Illinois (and is going to win the state anyway), the Chicago Tribune endorsement still has to rank as a surprise. It's the first time in history they've endorsed a Democrat for president.
Just curious, what newspapers have endorsed McCain?
The AIP Chronicle?
Aman - If Indiana is close or Virginia goes blue you can pop the champaign and toast President-elect Obama.
Aman,
Check out this story
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14660.html
We'll know if McCain has any shot by Monday's polling. In the span of four days, we will have had the last debate, the Al Smith dinner, McCain on Letterman, and Palin on SNL. If McCain is still not within striking distance, stick a fork in him.
re: Firewalls
Why is CO a firewall and VA not? They're equivalent in the polls. Sure, VA went for Bush by a bigger margin in '04, but it went blue in '06 and Warner should have some decent reverse coattails.
If Obama takes PA and VA, I'd agree it's safe to turn off the TV. McCain has no route to 270 if he loses both.
Yay Chuck Todd. Always a talent for analysis for the layperson. I'm not entirely sure how useful it is to show a poll based on the 2004 trend is except to get Matt Drudge all hot and bothered.
I would consider Obama's 30 minute add buy on the major networks the next significant event. I'm guessing this will be the closing argument of the campaign as a whole and we'll probably see a bump from that. Barring any October surprise I wouldn't expect to see any significant change for either candidate. I've been wrong before, however (2000).
From another thread (before the trolls get in here and clutter up the joint); I'm SO glad someone is addressing the squiggly thing. They are terribly distracting and one of the reasons I don't like news crawlers, too. But more importantly, I think they create the illusion of undue influence of opinion. Call it the 'Lemming effect', if you will. I find that a little disturbing. Agree completely that it should be post-broadcast and a larger sample size.
Thanks for bringing it up. Now if I could just get someone to adequately quantify the Cell Phone Only effect. My $.02
John,
McCain has a better GOTV effort in VA than in CO. Plus strong Hispanic pop in CO
"We may not be to the point of R2000"
Following up on Michael's point above (post #11), Rasmussen isn't explicitly reporting it, but they actually found a Democratic Party ID advantage a fair bit BIGGER than the one R2000 uses (D+9).
Rasmussen is currently weighting using a D+6.3 that's based on a 6-week average that covers 8/31 - 10/11. They reported that in September the party split was D+4.0. If you do the math, that means the Party ID split for the first 11 days of October (and August 31st) was D+12.1 (+/-0.2 or so because of rounding).
I don't know Ras's precise crosstabs but using something reasonable that would match their current tracker, using their early October Party weights, Obama's lead is something like 52-44.
Incidentally, a national Obama lead of 8 seems much more consistent with the state numbers that Ras released today - MO+6, CO+7, NV+5. If Obama were really only ahead by 4 nationally, that would imply that Rasmussen's showing Obama outperforming his national numbers in all three of these states. That doesn't really seem plausible to me (in a popular-vote tie, Obama wins Missouri? Really?).
Guess Kos dripped out his R2K polls too slowly for all of them to make today's deadline.
-- Interview Sarah Palin! --
Hmm, the state polls are quite good, the national numbers not SO much.
Like the Battleground and Zogby-trackers, the TIPP-tracker starts relatively pro-McCain and then moves towards Obama.
Certainly today the little tightening in the Rasmussen tracker is not reflected by the swing state polls. Gallup might be carrying a pro-McCain outlier in its average, we´ll see it tomorrow. But R2K went down a bit..well, it happens.
I am happy about Missouri. I knew it would happen, but didn´t expect it to flip so fast. I wish Mississippi and Texas were a little closer though, in high single digits.
"John M. said...
re: Firewalls
Why is CO a firewall and VA not? They're equivalent in the polls."
Because his support is more robust amongst hispanics than it is amongst whites and therefore unlikely to diminish.
North Carolina State Board of Elections
One-stop Voting begins on Thursday, October 16, 2008 and ends on Saturday, November, 1, 2008.
One-Stop Voting Sites for the November 4, 2008 General Election
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/Default.aspx?s=0
Same Day Voter Registration: Registration & Voting at One-Stop Sites
About Same Day Voter Registration
* All US citizens who will be 18 and have lived in the country for at least 30 days by the general election date are eligible to vote using SDVR.
* Same Day Registration only takes place during the early voting period, 19 to 3 days prior to the election, not on the day of the election.
http://www.ncdp.org/sdr
This Week With Barack Obama
http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/
Tomthress,
That is a good point re MO vs Natl.
I feel compelled to answer a bunch of posters who must not read this blog very often:
To everyone asking about the AP/Yahoo poll: Nate wrote just last night about how this poll is rather untrustworthy. It's listed at the top today because it comes first alphabetically. Whoa! It's weighting is so much higher than most of the others because of its sample size--almost twice as large as anyone else on the list. Even if it's a suspect poll, the fact that it interviewed so many people means the model will give it some heft.
Aman -- Indiana will be the first state to close at 6:00, although technically the NW county or two won't close until 7:00. If they don't call it at 6:00, you'll know it's very close there, which means a long night for McCain. So if that kind of drama matters to you, I would definitely start at 7:00 or earlier, as some other important indicating states like WV and GA will be closing soon after too. Again, if they're too close to call right away, it's a sign that Obama will be having a good night. I can't imagine the networks actually calling, though, until the west coast closes at 10:00 EST. It's *possible* that Obama will get over 270 without CA/WA/OR but not super-likely, as some of the other big states like FL and OH will probably still be counting at that point as well. So it may be later in the evening before it's officially called, even though it *could* be an evident Obama win well before that.
Nicholas -- the third ND poll that you mentioned is a partisan poll (union-based). Since it's in line with 2 other recent ND polls, I tend to believe it, but Nate doesn't include partisan polls.
I know I've said this before, but I really think you need to recalibrate the pollster ratings. SUSA consistently comes out with strange numbers (McCain by 2 in FL? Obama doing better in CA than CT? Really?) I think if you ran a comparison of SUSA to other pollsters you'd find a wide variance, which means they shouldn't continue to be rated as highly as they are now (based on polls they did months ago.)
This is all still very good news, and I'm cautiously optimistic. I just wonder if Team McCain will gain the traction he needs among the LIUV (low-info undecided voters) by using the "spread the wealth" socialist threat coupled with the "he's not one of us" to swing voters in swing states into his column.
I know JM can't win without IA and VA, both of which seem out of reach right now. I'm just anxious to see if the fear of a black muslim socialist meme will hold water beyond the already faithful flock.
Listening to (R) Rep. Michelle Bachmann get played by Chris Matthews was revealing in how openly McCarthyist the McCain campaign is being. She literally requested an investigation (by the media) to see which other members of congress, besides Barack Steve Obama are "anti-American". It boggles the mind.
I only hope that JMc. will do as good a job walking back his crazy talk post-election as HRC did.
I know you guys follow Intrade and noticed some shenanigans. Here's the scoop:
Trader Drove Up Price of McCain ‘Stock’ in Online Market
By Josh Rogin, CQ Staff
An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that an investor’s purchases prompted “unusual” price swings that boosted the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president.
Over the past several weeks, the investor has pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into one of Intrade’s predictive markets for the presidential election, the company said.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002976265
A few weeks ago, I heard Chuck Todd say that wherever the race is on Oct. 15th is where it will stay due to early voting. Can anyone explain this to me and should I take it to the bank and start celebrating now? worried!
I've read some things about voter registrations getting tossed in some states (lots of registrations!). Is there any validity to this?
I wonder about the feedback produced by this 'partisan' blog/statistic depot.
And to the 'objectivity' argument, tell it to someone who doesn't live in the 21st century. Anyone trying to claim unbiased results needs to have their head examined or go to the library and directed towards Bruno Latour, Derrida, et al.
No offense, and not to be elitist, but postmodernism may be a joke, however it also isn't (paradox is breathing), and while I go in for a more anthro/non-modern approach, I must point out that the econ Wall Street folk thought their accounts and such were also 'objective', as does McCain when he accepts jet flights from pretty young blond lobbyists.
Objectivity died decades ago, so what is the impact of this site?
It is useful and partisan, but is it beneficial to the events being tracked? Could it be a significant part of the data--this ain't pristine like a baseball diamond, the winds can be strong here too.
What blow back are Nate, Sean, and Brett able to produce? How much of a lever is this site? Certainly the more hits the more cultural impact, perceptions are shifted by data the presented and certainly by the editorial voices, which are restrained, but nevertheless free to be biased.
I'm just saying, how do you factor that in?
Re newspaper endorsements: Editor & Publisher maintains a list. As of the last update (yesterday), they have 39 endorsements for Obama, 15 for McCain. Six of the 39 papers endorsing Obama endorsed Bush in 2004; none of McCain's 15 endorsed Kerry.
kermit...,
None of the networks will call IN until all of the polls close. They have all agreed not to call any state until all polls in said state are closed regardless of how close the state is.
A question. If Obama is doing so well why was he in New Hampshire yesterday and Virginia today?
What should he be doing? Retiring to Barbados for snifters of aged celebratory rum until November? This is what the last few weeks before the elections are for - sprinting to battleground states where you are ahead to put the final lockdown on them.
I think Obama's primetime roadblock on the 29th is designed to get a debate-like boost by putting him in front of millions of people in longform. His numbers always seem to go up when that happens.
"A few weeks ago, I heard Chuck Todd say that wherever the race is on Oct. 15th is where it will stay due to early voting. Can anyone explain this to me and should I take it to the bank and start celebrating now? worried!"
Barring major events, which are still all too possible, historically, elections tend to be fairly stable from this point onwards.
Please do not get complacent. Give money and vote.
The Yahoo poll does have a survey size that's almost twice as large as the others. That's probably why it's rated so highly. (Note, Rasmussen's survey size is a bit more than half of Yahoo's, but it still gets a higher rating.)
Sorry--my endorsement numbers were already outdated! It's now 51-16 for Obama.
The GOP and cooders are getting mighty worried
about know. They are running out of fresh squeezed
and dehydrated lies...
The hypocrisy and sociopathy has made for some fat Karma this time around.
I am waiting for some photos of Obama eating babies and audio of strategic sessions with Hitler himself.
LA is going to have burn the BUSH parties in the new year... We should start a comity!
TERROR TERROR TERROR
RESOLUTE
"Lou Dobbs is jumping on the Drudge bandwagon - his teaser for his show tonight just reported that Obama is slipping, cause Gallup has reported 2 days in a row that his lead is only 2 points." Lou was just on TV saying Joe the Plumber is an American working icon & why are the Dems attacking him. Hahahahahahahaha
"Rasmussen's survey size is a bit more than half of Yahoo's, but it still gets a higher rating."
So for Nate's purposes, he's using the one-day sample size (1,000 for Ras), but presenting a 3-day result? That doesn't seem like it should be right. I would have thought you'd want to weight by the 3-day sample size (3,000) if you're reporting a 3-day result (as opposed to R2000, where Nate uses 1-day results, so obviously there you'd use the 1-day sample size for weighting purposes).
As someone in the red part of MO, my gut instinct is that the race here is an Obama lead, but not Obama +6. He and McCain are both coming through the state this weekend, so obviously both sides consider it in play.
The tried-and-true strategy for a Democrat to win Missouri is to curbstomp the Republican in Kansas City and St. Louis and not lose too badly in the rest of the state. To that end, I think it's a smart move that Obama has been opening campaign offices all over the Ozarks region of the state and not just in the population centers.
On election night, I guarantee you that Missouri will start out bright red and slowly creep bluer and bluer as the night wears on. The Democratic-leaning counties (in particular St. Louis County and St. Louis city) are always some of the very last to report in.
Friday, October 17, 2008
100,000 ballots cast YESTERDAY, the first day of early voting in North Carolina.
Unbelievable.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections is reporting that over 100,000 voters cast ballots yesterday, the first day of early voting in the state.
In that one day, Democrats had the clear advantage:
State Board of Elections data showed that 64 percent of voters who went to the polls Thursday were registered Democrats, while 21 percent of voters were registered Republicans. Another 15 percent were unaffiliated.
The record turnout, especially among Democrats, is being fueled by the sense that, for the first time in decades, North Carolina is in play. Both presidential campaigns are investing heavily in NC, although Obama is outspending McCain 2-1 in advertising.
This is what I am talking about. Vote your economic and future welfare, Vote Obama.
http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/2008/10/north-carolina-aint-playin-they-are-on.html
With the recent press endorsements, the possible one from Colin, and others that I believe BO has in his pocket to drip out, and the big TV time slot I think we should also consider the effect of many states, like MO, wanting to jump on the bandwagon. We have had a brilliant strategist at the helm and we are about to see his final play. Also, will there be blowback from all the negative robocalls and mailers from McFailin or will they work? I think the blowback will be greater than the positive effect.
Neal,
I would imagine that the Heisenberg effect that Nate has is exceptionally small. The impact of the commentary is likely smaller.
@kermitfrog
No networks are going to call a state before all polls are closed in that state.
Indiana won't get called at 6:00PM, even if there were a big enough differential to call it.
This also means that no networks will call a state until polls that remain open late, such as is sure to happen in many states, have closed and everyone who wants to vote has voted. Which means, quite possibly, that Ohio and Virginia and Indiana and North Carolina and Georgia may not be called until much later in the night.
BTW, that same crazy 18% AA vote is also in the SurveyUSA California result. There are some equally strange numbers for the regionals: Central (Valley) and Inland Empire are +3 and +6 for Obama. They are rural farmlands that are deep red. So either SUSA's numbers are screwy or the Republican's are in a heap of trouble - they have a number of house seats to defend here.
To all the Brits and Ausies and folks around the world that look in here and share your enthusiasm for a new and renewed USA, Thank you, and God Bless.
My favorite pick for a surprise state is MT. Very popular Dem governor and two Dem senators, Ron Paul on the ballot, and generally libertarian conservatives.
Hardly any polling to go by, so it might swing without being noticed.
I'm not sure if this is going to be popular or not, but here's my thoughts.
(From the AP)
[b]PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. – U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, embroiled in an adultery scandal and a tight race for re-election, admitted Friday to having at least two affairs but insisted he broke no laws and will not resign. The first-term Democrat conceded that one of the affairs began as he was running on a family values platform to replace Mark Foley, a Republican who resigned amid revelations that he sent lurid Internet messages to male pages who had worked on Capitol Hill as teenagers.
Mahoney, 52, apologized to his wife, his daughter and his constituents, even as he maintained he hadn't been hypocritical.[/b]
We all snickered as Mark Foley resigned in shame. We all called for people who knew about this but did nothing to protect vulnerable teenagers from someone who preyed on them.
We must be just as tough on people with a D next to their name. Tim Mahoney must step down, and he must step down NOW. No waiting till January, or resigning if he gets re-elected.
We must show the nation we will be just as willing to condemm those on the left side of the aisle who act hypocritically as we do those hypocrites on the right side of the aisle.
(incidentally, is there something in the water down there that makes people think with their genitalia and their varied sexual preferences? Someone poison the water supply with Viagra or something?)
quad:
Where are you finding those awesome endorsement numbers?
Can we move the debate on from whether Obama wins to what kind of mandate Obama will have as president?
Oh, and I forgot:
This is great news for JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!
Somebody had to do it.
:)
GOBAMA!!!
The Chicago Tribune also endorsed Abraham Lincoln 148 years ago. Lincoln was a Republican! Do we remember what Republicans used to be? The party of Lincoln.
You can read the Chicago Tribune's original endorsement of Abraham Lincoln at this link: http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/acrobat/2008-10/42949009.pdf It is quite interesting.
On the subject of North Carolina, I expect they won't be very happy that a North Carolina reporter was assaulted at a McCain/Palin rally (last night I believe). Sorry I don't have the link.
Tim Mahoney is going to Larry Craig his seat, it looks like. No worry, he'll probably go down in the hands of the electorate. I can't imagine that the party loudly disowns him, just pull the funding and let him go away on his own.
The internals on SurveyUSA's Florida numbers are way screwy. 22% AA for McCain!? Give me a break.
No kidding. The black vote will be 95%+ for Obama, and the turnout is going to VASTLY outperform the restrained estimates from all of the polls.
I am convinced that Obama's campaign is softpedaling black turnout for fear of triggering a backlash, and given what we've been seeing at the McCain and Palin rallies I don't blame them at all.
That said, I think when the smoke clears we're going to see a black turnout of well over 80%, compared with 60% in the '04 election. To say that AA's are energized by Obama is, I think, going to prove to be one of the great understatements of the decade.
I'll say this about 538: I'm getting a good brush-up on my statistics skills. I passed stats 101 by the skin of my teeth as an undergrad.
UM, Phoenix,
The Inland Empire is not "rural farmlands that are deep red" Not even close.
The central valley populations are also increasingly urban and suburban
Loralee,
Here's the latest version of the endorsement numbers:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230
It is unlikely that the polls will flatline until Nov 4. There will be movement in one direction, then the other, but it is unlikely to be sufficient to make the final numbers very close.
@MsMike:
Thanks for the link. Believeing in the "better angels of our nature" has carried me thus far through the campaign season and the last eight years.
Aman - divide your food and/or drink into 270 units and take a sip/swig/bite for each electoral vote called. I like the champagne vs beer idea. Maybe a Hawaiian theme for food? Or be bi-partisan and go Hawaiian and American Southwest cuisine. (Yes, I know I could have suggested Chicago style pizza...I'm allergic to wheat though so the Hawaiian theme came to mind for me.)
I think that, when the history of the 2008 election is written, it will say that this was the year when Martin Luther King found himself a twin. I think the black turnout is going to take everyone's breath away.
Don't the Ohio polls close early? Like 6pm EST?
You have to remember that even when McCain was leading by about 2% after his convention bounce, he wasn't leading in Colorado, the state was a dead heat.
Colorado polls about 2% better for Obama than the nation as Nate has noted. Plus, we have early voting. I haven't seen any totals on Colorado early voting, but remember the people are voting during a time when Obama has a 7% lead!
Therefore, Obama is very likely to lead in the early voting. So, even if McCain somehow has a late surge to come up even in the national polling, Obama will have banked a lot of votes already!
It's difficult to say, but McCain might need to be polling AHEAD of Obama by perhaps 2% on election day to have a chance.
And even then, his GOTV effort would have to beat Obama's on election day for him to win.
It's exactly like a man who has to pole vault over an ever increasing bar. He's going to hit the bar on one of his attempts!
kermitfog said...
I feel compelled to answer a bunch of posters who must not read this blog very often:
To everyone asking about the AP/Yahoo poll: Nate wrote just last night about how this poll is rather untrustworthy. It's listed at the top today because it comes first alphabetically. Whoa! It's weighting is so much higher than most of the others because of its sample size--almost twice as large as anyone else on the list. Even if it's a suspect poll, the fact that it interviewed so many people means the model will give it some heft.
kermitfrog,
Sorry, but you completely missed our point (or at least mine). It's not that AP-Yahoo is at the top of the list -- I know alphabetical order when I see it. =)
The issue is the relative weighting of AP-Yahoo (1.40) and Rasmussen (1.71), given that the AP-Yahoo is 7 days older and only has less than 60% as large a sample.
For reference, given the 30-day half life of polls that Nate uses, the difference in date alone should make the AP-Yahoo weigh only 85% as much, and that's almost all the difference between their weights.
So, that left me wondering if the weighting was correct, given the smaller sample size and (relatively) good ratings for Rasmussen.
Ben Smith had the "reporter attacked" story on his blog
I haven't watched Lou Dobbs for months now. But I'm watching now, and I find it interesting that "Mr. Independent" is so far in the tank for McCain.
Cecil said: "Lou was just on TV saying Joe the Plumber is an American working icon & why are the Dems attacking him. Hahahahahahahaha
I laughed at that too.
And for someone who always says that he wants the candidates to talk about the issues, he sure seemed fixated on the Ayers thing in that last segment about the robocall. Nice.
@ GaMeS:
In addition to the off/on switch on likely voters for Gallup's second likely coter screen (I am assuming that is true since I have heard it from several sources but have not verified it), their "old-style" likely voter screen is using data from a time period when Republicans were more enthusiastic than Democrats, and when the Dems did not have a ground game within in order of magnitude of what they have now.
Thus the measure that yields the final score from which the top X % are assumed to vote is also structurally biased in favor of the Republicans. I'm not saying this is intentional. Gallup know this and that's why they give the other likely voter screen, based solely on subjective responses.
This screen also does not tap the full extent of the ground game and so understates Obama's support, but since prior behavior is a usseful measure it probably also overstates Obamas's support. Putting both of them together, use the first of their two likely voter figures and, to be cautious, subtract about 1-1.5% from it.
OK, I am annoyed with this Banking votes argument about early voting. Generally the only people who vote early are those who will not change their minds. The soft support at the margins is why Obama has a 6-8 point lead now and those soft support votes are not getting banked.
"Central (Valley) and Inland Empire are +3 and +6 for Obama. They are rural farmlands that are deep red."
__________________________________
I work in the Inland Empire and it is not red at all. Most of it is pretty blue. It is the (far) suburbs of LA. In 1992, Clinton won Orange County, and we in OC are much bluer now then we were then, so I think even OC will vote Obama, though my dirtbag of a rep, Royce, will be re-elected.
Also, there is one of the largest tent cities in the country in Ontario, a city in the Inland Empire and the IE foreclosure rate is one of the highest in the state.
Lou Dobbs and Joe the "Plumber" share the same ignorant view on immigration. Lou is likely more in the tank for Joe then for McCain!
@ Bry
I think it would be hard to convince anybody of that since McCain, as president, would change Roe v. Wade if he could. What is easy to say is that he likely would not expend any political resources on it.
Dobss is a pompous racist ass. If it was Hillary he would like her more.
Please tell me I can stop worrying about these fooking polls. I don't think I can take much more of this.
PJ-
With CO or VA all else is irrelevant, that alone wins it for Obama
First time poster, but long time lurker here. It looks like some of you were right about there being some monkey business going on at InTrade:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002976265
Saw it on Huffington post today.
Those NC numbers are insane! Wow.
Apparently Gen. Petraeus is NOT voting for John McCain.
He's not voting for Obama either; his belief is that someone in his position in the military shouldn't vote.
But if what the wingnuts (real and spoof) here believed was true, wouldn't Petraeus vote for McCain?
Apparently he doesn't think Obama is a threat to the country.
Love to hear their reaction to this news...
http://www.careerjournal.com/article/SB122419511761942501.html
I see McCain ancestors owning slaves is getting attention in wall street journal.
If McFailin wins, I will truly, truly, absolutely have lost any respect for the people in this country.
I mean, I don't think it's going to happen, but the thought of it scares me more than anything else, ever.
He's incompetent, far too old, and likely to grow ill -- leaving us with what, Palin? My dog is more qualified to lead the country, and he licks his own behind.
"We must be just as tough on people with a D next to their name. Tim Mahoney must step down, and he must step down NOW. No waiting till January, or resigning if he gets re-elected."
WTF?!! This is just B.S.! Tim Foley was a PEDERAST who preyed on young boys who were placed under his care!
He got himself appointed to run the Congressional intern program and then used it to troll for hot young boys (at least 1 of whom he had sex with at the age of 17).
He tried to create himself as the Congressional expert on child predators and even introduced legislation on the subject!
It's NOTHING like a guy who cheats on his wife!
It looks like Mahoney might be a hypocrite for talking about morality and then cheating on his wife. That's up for his constituents to decide. Cheating isn't illegal, and while it's not particularly moral, tens of millions of Americans have done it. It also does NOT involve abuse of his public office!
What Foley did was TOTALLY different! He used his position of trust in the performance of his public duty to have an explicitly sexual relationship with underage boys via text messaging and other means, ultimately having sex with at least one of them.
To compare the two is totally disingenuous!
Re: poll closing times
Don't forget there will be lines in some places long after the official closing time, and those voters will be allowed to vote. I doubt networks will call races in those states.
games -- I did understand your point. john vance had asked about why it was at the top of the list. Anyway, yes, Rasmussen's sample size is bigger than AP/Yahoo's, but it's divided by three by the model. Someone pointed out above that even though Rasmussen's working sample size is 1000 and AP/Yahoo's is over 1700, Rasmussen's is still weighted higher. The 10/8 is the midpoint of the poll (it ran from 10/3 to 10/13). The drop in weight because of the age of the poll doesn't happen all that quickly. 1769 is a huge sample size. Plus, since AP/Yahoo isn't on Nate's pollster ratings chart, they get the "unknown pollster" rating, which is better than CNN or Gallup gets, for example. It's not that hard to fathom why their rating is so high.
My nomination for the name of the model: Brass Head
Obscure, yes. But I love the image of Nate as Friar Bacon and Sean as Friar Bungey, and I envision Mule Rider as Miles. I also appreciate the idea of a boon to the entire country if only Nate and Sean remain awake long enough to listen to the model speak.
"I am convinced that Obama's campaign is softpedaling black turnout for fear of triggering a backlash, and given what we've been seeing at the McCain and Palin rallies I don't blame them at all."
There was a recent article on how he has lead a aggressive but quiet outreach to the black community.
I think it's great that polls are showing a narrowing and McCain is out with a nasty robocall across 8 competitive states. It's really the GOP's last gasp effort to close the gap and tighten the race.
Narrowing polls are a stomach-churning GOTV motivator for Obama's base. The overwhelming majority of AAs I've met have three things in common:
[a] They are registered and will vote,no matter what.
[b] They didn't vote in 2004.
[c] They doubt they will cast a ballot for a black president again in their lifetimes, even young people in their early twenties think this.
There are no models or polls that adequately capture this enthusiasm. The AA vote this year is like Mandela's first election in 1994.
To all those people worrying about the race tightening, DO SOMETHING! Read this (from DailyKos) for inspiration:
I just finished my first full day of volunteering for the campaign. I will be doing this every day until November 4.
I phonebanked all day. Tomorrow I will canvass all day.
Today, the campaign staffer at the office I'm volunteering out of called me and another volunteer in to a closed door meeting to listen in on a teleconference with Senator Obama and David Plouffe. It was amazing to hear Barack's voice. His real voice. His voice live. And he was speaking to me. I cried.
He said he was worried we were getting cocky and that our hubris might show and voters would get complacent and not get out and vote. He said we needed to work even harder - as if we were ten points behind. He said if he can work harder, we can too. He said that millions of Americans are counting on us.
After Barack finished speaking, David Plouffe came on and pretty much repeated what Senator Obama said and he added, "Let's go win this f*cking thing."
It was amazing. I cried and so did another volunteer who was in the conf. room.
2 years ago, I didn't have a political bone in my body. Today, I eat, sleep, breathe, live this campaign. I know everything about this campaign. I know everything about the man I support with all my being. I know that he is the man we need now.
I now understand the concept of "the fierce urgency of now."
"The Inland Empire is not "rural farmlands that are deep red" Not even close."
San Bernardino County's Democratic registrations (current registration numbers) outnumbered Republican this year.
On the North Dakota point, from McCain's point of view, there really are no reasonably likely situations anymore where North Dakota going one way or the other will make a difference to McCain which is probably why SkyNet/Heidi has it white on its Tipping Point State list. They can't afford to be taking anyone else's temperature.
Aman,
Drinking game: put the names of the states in a hat and have guests pull names out. Drink a shot whenever your state is mentioned. If people have to pull 2 states, and some unlucky chap gets both Ohio and Florida, be careful of alcohol poisoning . . .
I was expecting a Mahoney effect on the Florida polls. I would have been surprised if there was no effect there. McCain is much much closer than most people think. I believe that in the swing states there are many people who would vote for Obama now but are looking for an excuse to switch to McCain. The Mahoney situation gives them a much more immediate reason to switch their votes unlike the grasping at straws attacks McCain camp has leveled so far that only the most ardent base Republicans don't see right through. Just my take.
Lou Dobbs is such a freaking jerk. I mean, I do not find Ed Rollins a jerk. I disagree, but he isn't a jerk. Lou Dobbs is a died in the wool jerk a-hole, WHINER. I've never heard anyone WHINE so much. As far as anything I can see NOTHING would please him.
As far as this OH voting stuff they are kvetching about right now...do they not get that MANY irregularities are often somehting like rosters that have names misspelled or they can't read the signature.
Urgh. I wish he was on some other channel.
If any commentators say "Bradley Effect", everyone must do a shot.
"[a] They are registered and will vote,no matter what.
[b] They didn't vote in 2004.
[c] They doubt they will cast a ballot for a black president again in their lifetimes, even young people in their early twenties think this. "
As a black person (who voted in 2004) I can tell you that the historical aspect to his candidacy has been a tremendous motivator for me and will be for many black folk as well as young folk.
"Blogger Matt W said...
OK, I am annoyed with this Banking votes argument about early voting. Generally the only people who vote early are those who will not change their minds. The soft support at the margins is why Obama has a 6-8 point lead now and those soft support votes are not getting banked."
And your magic 8 ball told you that "the only people" who early vote are those who will not change their minds?
HMMMN?
Way to make totally bald assertions without a shred of evidence to support them! You haven't a clue who is early voting and who is not!
You certainly cannot prove that the early voters are any different than the general voting population. It may be that partisans from one side or another might dominate early voting.
But, the baseline assumption is that early voting will exactly mirror voting on election day (assuming no movement in the polls between now and then).
In that case, early voting is simply a snapshot in time.
Example: Suppose something that would significantly erode Obama's support occurred and McCain surged in the polls. That wouldn't change the early voting totals and Obama might still win the state if he had banked enough votes early.
Since the GREATEST likelihood is a late McCain surge (if at all) this creates a HIGHER barrier for him to get over.
Assuming that only rabid partisans are early voting is just ludicrous! In many rural counties in Colorado, absentee voting is a habit, since it's a long drive to the polls.
Now, it's just a convenience for voters who don't want to wait in a long line on election day. Elections officials are encouraging early voting in hopes of reducing election day congestion at the polls.
What to do for an election party?
Vote now by absentee ballot and volunteer at the phone banks or in some other capacity for Obama. Yes, I'm talking to you.
Fox News on the Bradley Effect:
link
Article is actually quite reasonable, but the comments, predictably, are nuts.
sfergus483 said...
Apparently Gen. Petraeus is NOT voting for John McCain.
He's not voting for Obama either; his belief is that someone in his position in the military shouldn't vote.
But if what the wingnuts (real and spoof) here believed was true, wouldn't Petraeus vote for McCain?
Apparently he doesn't think Obama is a threat to the country.
The military should HOPE that Obama gets in. What no one seems to consider is how BULLheaded McCain is and who wants an old pilot who is in total charge going above their heads with his "experience" from 40 years ago. I mean, my God, aren't they sick of being end run around like Bush has been doing? Obama's huge strength, and the way he has gotten where he is is by cultivating the people he knows KNOW what they are doing and actually listening to them, parsing the information and then coming back with a plan. If anyone doesn't think he is GENIUS at that, they haven't read a thing about how he got here.
Research 2000 - Alaska
M: 57
O: 38
Senate Race:
Begich: 48
Stevens: 46
L
very punny picture!
"As far as anything I can see NOTHING would please him."
___________________________________
If every person with a drop of Hispanic blood were to leave the US and the Spanish language were not ever spoken by anyone again, Dobbs would be pleased.
Cugel,
I understand what you're saying, that compared to Foley, this is a "lesser offense".. but I really think that after the past few elections, the Republicans have lost the "moral highground" in the public view, (especially in light of the hypocricy of folks who mouth harsh anti-gay rhetoric to please their base and then do the activities that they so fervently bash).
But if we're going to keep the moral high ground, we must be just as tough on hypocrites with a D in front of their name as we do with the ones having a R in front of their name.
With the latest revelations in the Mahoney case, telling him to resign and to stop his re-election campaign, is not only the right thing to do, it's the PRACTICAL thing to do.
Nothing pushes the energy level of Republican voters like a sex scandal attached to a Democrat.
Mahoney's seat is already pretty much lost already, having him in the office for a lame duck two months is no benefit at all really.
However, having Mahoney dominate the discussion in Florida for the next few weeks will energize the Republican base in his district in Florida to "come out and vote out that no-good two-timing scum".. and that could have a knock-on effect in a state that if Barack Obama wins, he is the next president of the United States.
It's keeping an eye on the big picture if you want to be cynical, and the right thing to do if you want to do the moral thing.
Judging by the early voting in Georgia (as antmatic informs us all) you'd have to believe that any state polling within single digits is within striking distance. Obama should be believing that.
Mccain is SURGING, bitches!
At this rate, McCain will be by 21% by ED.
Obama was In Roanoke with Jim Webb because if he keeps it close in SW Virginia he will win Virginia for sure. McCain can't win the election without Virginia.
In answer to the question about Ohio polls, they close at 7:30 but anyone in line at 7:30 gets to vote. In the last election, some polling places were ordered to stay open later because they ran out of ballots and delayed things.
This year, a ton of ballots will be available at all precincts. The lead official at each precinct has to check in at 4 pm with a total of votes cast so additional ballots can be allotted if necessary.
Lots of polling booths at every location but, since they're paper ballots, there will be overflow tables as well so voters won't need to use the booths if there's a long line.
There's been a heavy in person early vote as well as mail in voting. Those results will be made available immediately after the close of the polls and should be more than a 1% result. For what it's worth, the absentee results tracked the final results very closely in the primary.
The scanners at each location print out results at the end of the evening. One copy of the results is posted on the door of the polling location. May be a weird thing to do, but I like it.
Seretse said...
"As a black person (who voted in 2004) I can tell you that the historical aspect to his candidacy has been a tremendous motivator for me and will be for many black folk as well as young folk."
I voted for Obama in the primaries and I am so excited that I CANNOT wait for election day. But if I could have known for sure he would win the nomination, I might have voted for Hillary so that I could enjoy knowing that I voted for a Democratic woman for president -- even if it was the primary and not the general election.
Dailykos retards pronounce Obama the Messiah.
Peggy Noonan on Sarah Palin:
link
But we have seen Mrs. Palin on the national stage for seven weeks now, and there is little sign that she has the tools, the equipment, the knowledge or the philosophical grounding one hopes for, and expects, in a holder of high office. She is a person of great ambition, but the question remains: What is the purpose of the ambition? She wants to rise, but what for? For seven weeks I've listened to her, trying to understand if she is Bushian or Reaganite—a spender, to speak briefly, whose political decisions seem untethered to a political philosophy, and whose foreign policy is shaped by a certain emotionalism, or a conservative whose principles are rooted in philosophy, and whose foreign policy leans more toward what might be called romantic realism, and that is speak truth, know America, be America, move diplomatically, respect public opinion, and move within an awareness and appreciation of reality.
But it's unclear whether she is Bushian or Reaganite. She doesn't think aloud. She just . . . says things.
ROFLOL. Nailed it.
Nate - you said "Obama's momentum has possibly stalled out, but has probably yet begun to reverse itself." Should that be "_not_ yet begun to reverse itself"? Or "_and_ has even begun to reverse itself" or what? Something's wrong with that sentence.
They listen to His voice and weep. Retards, truly.
Obama does have a great chance to run out the clock here. Hopefully, he'll be able to hold it.
Abortion: Wedge Colored Glasses
Palin is a retard that breeds retards.
OMG another person I'd like to slap. Bay Anderson. Ugh. I have such deep dislike for her.
They listen to His voice and weep. Retards, truly.
Funny, I've heard that Repugs react the same way around Palin. Isn't she "filled with the holy spirit"?
Dmitry said... "Mccain is SURGING, bitches! At this rate, McCain will be by 21% by ED."
McCain has 21% ED? That is getting near Bob Dole territory. So after he loses the election, will he be doing ads for Viagra?
Thanks to Dmitry for bringing us this news.
Seretse and eve:
I worked the 2004 election and just worked a special election this past Tuesday. The difference in the AA electorate between 2004 and now cannot be overstated. The message in 2004 was "register". Lots of people did, but then weren't very prepared to vote. The message this year has been "vote, dammit!" and it's gotten through loud and clear. Incredibly motivated voters who, for the most part, plan to vote early just to make sure their votes will be counted. I was happily stunned by the difference.
Americans want a theocracy?. I don´t think so:
"A Republican In Virginia
If you want to know why Obama appears to be ahead in this once-solidly Republican state, this reader will clue you in:
They are killing me. I am a registered Republican. I live in Virginia. But I am clearly not a "Virginia Republican". This ticket and loathesome campaign is a disaster - I haven't left the Republican Party so much as it has left me, at least here in the Commonwealth. The party gladly allowed Rove/GWB to cultivate a certain brand of politics to win and hold the White House. And now that the bill has come due, so few wish to face the music. And in the process - and his quest for office - John McCain has embraced that which he professed to repudiate.
Ignorant Christian Fascism is not a recipe for success, it's Saudi Arabia under a different prophet. Count me out. Despite differing with the Democratic platform on a great number of policies, I will gladly vote for the Obama ticket because at a minimum it promises adults at the helm, a rational approach to policymaking, the return of science over theocracy, the restoration of the primacy of the rule of law, and the creative destruction of that assemblage once known as the GOP".
Excuse me, Cudgel, but using your position of trust to hand out a civil service job to an employee you had intimate relations with is a big no-no. It's using public $ in violation of public trust.
But it's unclear whether she is Bushian or Reaganite. She doesn't think aloud. She just . . . says things.
OMG, that is the perfect description of Palin.
Dmitry,
One problem with your post, however, is that ED probably should not be characterized as "surging."
So Palin on SNL . . . it's the L part that intrigues me. Just what do you think the audience will do when she comes out???? I know I couldn't bring myself to clap, even politely. That woman doesn't deserve polite applause . . .
Chicago Sun-Times endorses Obama
Link
BREAKING NEWS: University cancels speech by Ayers
Philly conservative talk show host Michael Smerconish endorses Obama
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/philly-conservative-talk-show-host.html
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/philly-conservative-talk-show-host.html
Agrees, Aaron.
SurveyUSA has seemed all year to have an uncanny knack for stumbling upon the small pockets of black Republicans.
As far as polls closing versus networks announcing - they will absolutely call on the minute a race that the exit polls put out of reach when polls close. Expect the first call of the Election at 7:00 pm eastern standard time. Congratulations Senator Mark Warner of VA.
They can do this because although people are still in line and still voting nobody can look at the results and decide 'oh shit I have to vote to turn this around'. If you are in line at poll closing time we (I've worked the last three VA elections as an election officer) have to stay open and can't start turning off the machines. If there was a horrible accident on the Beltway and you were rushing to get home to vote but you didn't make it til 7:01- sorry can't let you vote. In fact we had a problem with the primary where there was a four-hour backup in the Springfield mixing bowl due to a highway overpass that had iced up that caused a number of people to miss voting. Maryland got a court order to stay open later but VA didn't.
If the exit polls aren't conclusive it will take sufficient actual return data to back them up and make it clear. If everything goes right in my precinct (FFX county) I know that we have been finished at approx 10-11pm in statewide/2006 congressional races. Some of the more urban regions blue portions of Richmond came in much later than that, and some of the bluer portions of Loudoun & Prince William were late while the more rural redder parts got in earlier making us think Webb was losing. Loudon and Prince William have spent much of the decade playing catch-up in all aspects of their infrastructure (schools, roads, police) to a rapidly expanding population that they don't have a handle on and that expands to polling precincts. Also those exuban counties are foreclosure leaders for the region so if the GOP tries anything in VA with foreclosed homeowners it will be here. In short on VA - expect the dem returns to turn in late; if there are problems look at the Exurbs and it won't be called early for Pres bar miraculous exit polling.
Whether VA or Colorado is more in the bag for Obama as the decider just remember that during the conventions there was a speculated convention home state effect in both CO and MN that was causing a overperformance vs history in those states during the conventions. MN has definitely faded, and it isn't far fetched that CO has slagged off a bit and the current polls are true - Obama is doing better in VA than CO.
(AP)
Minnesota Congresswoman Bachmann says Obama 'may' be anti-American
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann says she's concerned that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama "may have anti-American views."
In an interview Friday on the MSNBC program "Hardball," host Chris Matthews asked Bachmann if she thinks Obama may have anti-American views. Her response: "Absolutely. I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views."
Bachmann said in the interview that she bases such suspicions on Obama's past associations with his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, and 1960's-era radical Bill Ayers.
McCain Invites ‘Joe the Plumber’ to a Campaign Event
Link
WOW!!! Is there a bigger nutjob in congree than Michelle Bachmann?
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/rep-michelle-bachmann-oozes-hatred-for.html
Politifact has today published their findings on the ACORN controversy and Obama's connection to the organization:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2008/oct/17/nut-job-gop-links-acorn-obama/
Despite what Senator McCain says, this sure doesn't sound like "one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country" to me...
Thought I'd post the link in case anyone wants spread the word, although I'm sure the right-wingers continuing to spread the lies don't have much use for facts unless they agree with the narrative they're pushing.
ED stands for Election Day. At the current rate, Mccain's chances to win will be 21% on ED.
SURGE!
GOP Senator Slams McCain Robo Call
Link
Yes, porridgegun, that would be Barack Obama.
Once again these numbers look disappointing to me. Obama's campaign should change direction if the numbers keep dropping by Sunday or Monday otherwise, they are going to have a surprise of their lives. Obama needs to forgo his assault in states such as MO or GA as they will never go red -- however keep the minimal pressure on. I am not happy with the current trend. What happened to all the fence sitting independent jumping to Obama's side? Obama should pound VA and CO vigorously then push in OH, FL, NC and NV. Keep a minimal pressure in WV, GA, and MO. I don't understand why McCain is dabbling in PA as the statistics show he is way behind and frankly, in 18 days, there is no way he can close the gap. Obama should also stop trying to associate McCain to Bush ALL the time; it loses its fire and he starts sounding like a broken record. Instead he should more talk about how his plan will improve economy for all not just a few. Today's report is just troubling for me.
Americans want a theocracy?. I don´t think so:
"A Republican In Virginia
If you want to know why Obama appears to be ahead in this once-solidly Republican state, this reader will clue you in:
They are killing me. I am a registered Republican. I live in Virginia. But I am clearly not a "Virginia Republican". This ticket and loathesome campaign is a disaster - I haven't left the Republican Party so much as it has left me, at least here in the Commonwealth. The party gladly allowed Rove/GWB to cultivate a certain brand of politics to win and hold the White House. And now that the bill has come due, so few wish to face the music. And in the process - and his quest for office - John McCain has embraced that which he professed to repudiate.
Ignorant Christian Fascism is not a recipe for success, it's Saudi Arabia under a different prophet. Count me out. Despite differing with the Democratic platform on a great number of policies, I will gladly vote for the Obama ticket because at a minimum it promises adults at the helm, a rational approach to policymaking, the return of science over theocracy, the restoration of the primacy of the rule of law, and the creative destruction of that assemblage once known as the GOP".
aria
McCain will win
get ready to cry cry cry
hahahahahahahahaha
"Dr. Matt" Are you making a joke about an infant? What is wrong with you?
McCain/Palin supporter kicks reporter to the ground at Palin event
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/mccainpalin-supporter-kicks-reporter-to.html
Americans want a theocracy?. I don´t think so:
"A Republican In Virginia
If you want to know why Obama appears to be ahead in this once-solidly Republican state, this reader will clue you in:
They are killing me. I am a registered Republican. I live in Virginia. But I am clearly not a "Virginia Republican". This ticket and loathesome campaign is a disaster - I haven't left the Republican Party so much as it has left me, at least here in the Commonwealth. The party gladly allowed Rove/GWB to cultivate a certain brand of politics to win and hold the White House. And now that the bill has come due, so few wish to face the music. And in the process - and his quest for office - John McCain has embraced that which he professed to repudiate.
Ignorant Christian Fascism is not a recipe for success, it's Saudi Arabia under a different prophet. Count me out. Despite differing with the Democratic platform on a great number of policies, I will gladly vote for the Obama ticket because at a minimum it promises adults at the helm, a rational approach to policymaking, the return of science over theocracy, the restoration of the primacy of the rule of law, and the creative destruction of that assemblage once known as the GOP".
guys
have a nice weekend
who will surge in the weekend ??
GET READY :-)
Breaking news:::::
According to election adviser Dmitry, Senator John McCain has ED. He is not running for president, but for Bob Dole's position as Viagra spokesperson.
New slogan: "Only Viagra can give McCain the Surge he truly needs."
Real Joe,
How old are you, 12? You have more than two brain cells; try to utilize them and make a rational response.
When California is in play, the Inland Empire is usually a key battleground. Politically, it's very heavily mixed. Several good-sized universities (most notably UC Riverside) give it a dose of liberal intellectualism, and the rise in the housing market during the 1990s made it very attractive to fiscal conservatives and businesspeople as well. Traditionally, it's been farmland--citrus fruits mainly--but that's changed as the suburbs of LA have stretched further east. There's plenty of jokes about what a redneck haven it is: the local morning DJs refer to it as "the Valley of the Dirt People," and there's just enough truth there to make the stereotype stick. (I say this as someone who grew up in Riverside and spent much of his sun-dappled youth getting beat up by white trash kids.) But it's certainly nowhere near as conservative (or as homogenous) as, say, Orange County is. Idiot Republican ladies' clubs (or idiot Democratic ladies' clubs for that matter) can happen to anyone...
It's so nice to finally others realizing how in the tank Lou Dobbs is for McCain. He has been relentlessly hammering the "despicable voter fraud" being perpetrated by the "left-wing organization ACORN with ties to Barack Obama" every night on his show for over 2 weeks now.
This is an actual quote from last Thursday's Lou Dobbs show: "That brings us to the subject of our poll tonight. Are you concerned that radical left-wing activist groups are trying to manipulate the outcome of this presidential election? Yes or no."
I mean, hello? Push poll much, Lou? What a tool...
Indiana polls closes at 6:00PM local time. Because three counties are on Central time (including Lake County), they can't be announced until 7:00 Eastern.
By my count, McCain can win, even if he loses both Virginia and Pennsylvania. In order to get to 270 exactly, he'd need:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
He could also drop New Hampshire and West Virginia and pick up Minnesota or Washington.
On the other hand, if two of Ohio, Indiana, and Virginia are called for Obama, I'm not even waiting for Pennsylvania. I can sleep soundly with that.
Senior adviser to the Obama campaign, Aria, reports campaign strategy: "Once again these numbers look disappointing to me. Obama's campaign should change direction if the numbers keep dropping by Sunday or Monday otherwise, they are going to have a surprise of their lives. Obama needs to forgo his assault in states such as MO or GA as they will never go red -- however keep the minimal pressure on. I am not happy with the current trend. What happened to all the fence sitting independent jumping to Obama's side? Obama should pound VA and CO vigorously then push in OH, FL, NC and NV. Keep a minimal pressure in WV, GA, and MO. I don't understand why McCain is dabbling in PA as the statistics show he is way behind and frankly, in 18 days, there is no way he can close the gap. Obama should also stop trying to associate McCain to Bush ALL the time; it loses its fire and he starts sounding like a broken record. Instead he should more talk about how his plan will improve economy for all not just a few. Today's report is just troubling for me."
Strange since these polls show Obama pushing ahead in MO. Why drop it now? Seems like you don't understand offense.
real joe,
Thanks for the link about GOP complaints about robocalls.
I think McCain needs to be upgraded from cooties to herpes or something.
aria said...
Real Joe,
How old are you, 12? You have more than two brain cells; try to utilize them and make a rational response.
lol
your boy is doing ok
no need to worry
newsfromoh said...
real joe,
Thanks for the link about GOP complaints about robocalls.
:-)
Violence and death threats from right-wingers against ACORN community organizers... as you'd expect from Republicans
http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/violence-predictably-follows-right-w
Nate, could you please update your Senate projections again? The latest R2K Senate polls for GA, MS and TX are pretty significant. I expect they'll jump all three races up a category in your Senate Scorecard. Should push the 60-vote margin probability into the high 30's, if not above 40%.
When are we going to see fresh polling numbers for the Kentucky Senate race? If that very stale Rasmussen poll showing him 9 points up turns out to be an outlier, that's another "safe" GOP seat that's sliding into the toss-up category.
First time poster...love this blog, like so many others. It's an addiction.
At any rate, I maintain Georgia will be close if my experience voting today was any indication. Thought I dash in and out of an Atlanta voting location. Instead, waited over an hour. I would say about 90% of the people there were African Americans. Have also been campaigning for Obama in the area, and people are very excited to vote. Obama signs are everywhere in my neighborhood as well...
McCain using same Robocall firm that Bush/Rove used to smear him and his family in 2000
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/17/report-mccain-using-same_n_135699.html
If there was any doubt, McCain's journey to the dark side is now complete.
This site reminds me to hope. Thank you for that.
McCain using same Robocall firm that Bush/Rove used to smear him and his family in 2000
Wow . . . that's absolutely f'ing incredible. And to think I felt sorry for him back in 2000. Perhaps Palin should use her gift with the Holy Spirit to vanquish Mc's soul
Dmitry said...
"Mccain is SURGING..." and used an offensive word, and later called someone "retard". Ditry, this is a 70 year old grandmother speaking. What does your hateful and offensive language accomplish? Anything positive for you or anyone? If not, why not buy yourself a punching bag, or go pull some weeds in your garden.
The Media shaped the polls in early September and they might do it again so they make this a horse race.
I can't see how I can trust some polling companies.
We want your opinion. Go to http://www.twiigs.com/poll/Politics/17960
You can watch Countdown with Keith Olbermann at http://liberal.democratz.org
new thread--but it's mostly trolls over there, or so it appeared a moment ago
Nate,
I mentioned this to Sean as well:
All this reminds me of the end of Chris Rock's Head of State where the suburbs go crazy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhPzAbOFhFc
Michiganmaine:
"Obama needs to forgo his assault in states such as MO or GA as they will never go red -- however keep the minimal pressure on."
Obama has a tremendous advantage in resources. His campaign should take advantage of that by forcing McCain to spend resources in every single state in contention. McCain is vulnerable in many states.
I've decided whenever I get nervous, I'll watch this. It's soothing and reminds me of what a true breath of fresh air Obama is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMgNvSOV88o
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