The political industry's day of rest is Saturday, not Sunday, when the morning talk shows can make news, and campaigns try and jockey to lead the news cycle in the week ahead. As such, it tends to be the slowest day of the week for polling, and today is no exception:
There are really only two items of any significance here. Firstly, Obama continues to hold or slightly improve his position in the national tracking polls. But secondly, McCain got a strong result in Ohio, where the University of Cincinnati's poll for an Ohio newspaper consortium has John McCain 2 points ahead in the Buckeye State. Bonus for McCain: UC's polls have a strong track record. Mitigating factors: about three-fifths of the interviews in the poll were conducted before the debate, which seems to have boosted Obama's standing slightly, and he has improved his position modestly from the couple of polls that UC conducted in September, which had McCain ahead by 4 and 6 points respectively.
Overall, these results appear to roughly cancel out, and Obama's chance of winning the electoral college is 90.9 percent, the same as it was yesterday.
10.11.2008
Today's Polls, 10/11
@ 3:49 PM
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128 comments
Does the famous Nate Silver get a day of rest as well?
first?
doh!
Not sure if UC's polls are done in the southern half of the state or it they're phone conducted all over, but the politics in Cinci are quite a bit different than in Cleveland.
God said "Let their be polls"
Nate said "Say please"
I guess compared to recent polling, today is "good news" for McCain, even if the national polling numbers are his worst yet.
It's amazing they're still making plays in IA and PA. I mean, if they're going to be making stops in impossible states, they should at least pick ones like MN that have competitive senate races.
-- Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin --
This thing is going to go down to the wire, I will not rest till polls close on Nov 4th and I know no more can be done...and neither should you!!!
Nope. You have to be Flash Gordon to be first here Will Thompson!
Hey, IF and only IF you're interested, check out my essay. And if you're not, please just skip it!
Thanks, my fellow Obamaniacs!
What to believe?
Nate, what's your margin of error in the percentages (e.g. 90.9%-9.1%)? 10,000 trials corresponds to something like a 1% margin of error?
You should bring back the cartogram.
Allow me to be the first to say:
These polls are GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
In other news, I donated to Obama when the mobs got ugly this week. I spoke to my dad (a Rush dittohead from waaaay back) today, and he has given up on McCain 2008. He said he thinks Liddy Dole will win "in a nailbiter" in NC though.
It's like all of my Republican friends just quit smoking or something -- they are all so touchy and angry! http://www.popduds.com
McCain will win Ohio.
Really? Why?
I'm not being snarky, I'm just curious. I am in Ohio a lot on business and while the race will clearly remain tight, I can't imagine why Ohio wouldn't drift into Obama's column along with Missouri.
Conservative Scion and Son of William F Buckley Jr of National Review pens a piece today that says:
Sorry, Dad! I am voting for Obama (and for a Democrat, for the first time in my life).
Go to realclearpolitics.com, if you wish to read the full article.
I can't believe I'm seeing this:
John McCain is now attacking civil rights icon John Lewis.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14488.html
What the hell is going on in this country?
Can someone explain the labels of the key demograhics on the previous post...
Namely, why aren't whites listed without being listed as evangelicals. Aren't hispanics and blacks evangelicals too?
Help me understand.
Do you guys know if Nate gets paid per click or per view for his McCain banners. Just curious which would be a more effective way to leach a little bit off of McCain's finances while I'm computer bound ;)
McCain said that Lewis's comments were "character attacks" and he is calling on Obama to denounce them.
Is he fucking serious?
OH will go Obama in the end. All states where the difference is within MOE will go Obama. Obama hasa good ground troops working under the radar.
The key is to prevent voting machine fraud!!
Obama 375 (or more)!
I wonder how the Sarah Palin abuse of power story will play out.
A year or so ago, I would have thought that Ohio would be the first state to safely flip. And yet it looks like it is running just about even with North Carolina now.
OH and MO have the best records in the country for going with the winners. The reason they'll swing for Obama is because they want to continue their winning streaks.
To check out their records, he's a great website that shows maps of the US, of the electoral college in elections going way back.
270towin.com
Only 24 Days for the Republican ticket to turn this around. Who can guess what McCain's NEXT hail-mary pass will be?
Bush Movie coming out
The film will be released on October 17, 2008
The film's producers are reportedly planning to run TV spots for the film opposite John McCain's ads this fall.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1175491/
official site:
http://www.wthefilm.com
Obama within the MOE in OH is good news because a close race drains McCain's resources from the other five "must-win" states (plus the "western option"). With McCain spending his time in MN, IA, and WI, his campaign is relying on his "ground game" far too much.
The key is to prevent voting machine fraud!!
Agreed, Ohio needs to be watched closely by all.
That's not the only issue, either. Just reading this story about alleged Federal judicial interference; wondering if someone with actual knowledge of Ohio polictics would care to comment?
Would also be interested to see a story on what the respective campaigns are doing to ensure maximal voter franchise.
Its the senate races that really show how messed up the GOP is. They are losing according to Nate in Alaska, North Carolina, Virginia, the map is going blue. But in a way whats interesting is that some of the pickups they should get are in more traditional at least 'purple' states. (New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon) this could be a start of a new alignment.
Rich Merrit,
Post your links with pride. Ignore people that call you names.
You too Liberal Jim.
Personal attacks are inappropriate. Let us not lower ourselves to the level of the McCain campaign!
Did McCain acknowledge that he lost?
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/did-mccain-acknowledge-that-he-lost.html
Civil rights icon John Lewis comments on McCain's hateful rallies:
"As one who was a victim of violence and hate during the height of the Civil Rights Movement, I am deeply disturbed by the negative tone of the McCain-Palin campaign. What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse."
"George Wallace never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama."
"As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all. They are playing a very dangerous game that disregards the value of the political process and cheapens our entire democracy."
McCain's response:
"Congressman John Lewis' comments represent a character attack against Governor Sarah Palin and me that is shocking and beyond the pale. The notion that legitimate criticism of Senator Obama's record and positions could be compared to Governor George Wallace, his segregationist policies and the violence he provoked is unacceptable and has no place in this campaign."
"I am saddened that John Lewis, a man I've always admired, would make such a brazen and baseless attack on my character and the character of the thousands of hardworking Americans who come to our events to cheer for the kind of reform that will put America on the right track."
"I call on Senator Obama to immediately and personally repudiate these outrageous and divisive comments that are so clearly designed to shut down debate 24 days before the election. Our country must return to the important debate about the path forward for America."
Hey liberal jim, do you mind not posting anything to the tune of greensleeves again, you're lame. Thanks!
It's a well know fact that ANYTHING can be sung to the tune of 'Greensleeves'.
For exmple, try it with what you just wrote...
(Less well known is the folk tradition claiming that Greensleves was composed by the English King Henry the Eight, the most syphilitic king of England...)
That would be the same John Lewis who McCain said at the saddleback thing he would take advice from!
McCain said that Lewis's comments were "character attacks" and he is calling on Obama to denounce them.
Is he fucking serious?
Of course he's serious.
Only McCain may engage in character attacks...didn't you get the memo?
The percentage for Obama winning the election without Ohio must be going up every day.
OH's tough. It's the rednecks from southern and rural OH. Strickland's tour with Obama should help a bit, though. He's "one of them" and if he can be seen with That One, then given the choice of hating or eating, the rednecks MIGHT choose eating.
I'm helping with the ground game here in the Cleveland suburbs and it's going as well as can be expected. Most Cleveland area Republicans are of the Voinovich variety, that is, much more moderate. Many switched party during Bush's reign. Cuyahoga County will go overwhelmingly for Obama, like San Francisco numbers, and we're by far the largest county.
I'm also very familiar with the Board of Elections here and they are beyond paranoid. I honestly believe that things will go well because there is a crazy paper trail for votes.
Now in the rest of the state, who knows?
These polls are GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
"Only 24 Days for the Republican ticket to turn this around. Who can guess what McCain's NEXT hail-mary pass will be?"
It seems they're going to push the abortion issue:
http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/10/palin_focuses_on_abortion_issu.html
Good for John Lewis and everyone else that is calling McCain/Palin on their implicative attacks. I have grown very tired of the mainstream media's apparent belief that because they can't or don't want to hear a dog whsitle, it isn't being blown.
I work with a fair number of conservatives, and in recent days, I am seeing a clear break with McCain on this.
Notice how all these haol mary's are directed at the base. I am nboyt sure the GOP base is going to win this for McCain.
Nate, FYI...the Nebraska and Maine details in the table in the right margin have ### in a couple of the fields, so the results can't be seen.
It's the rednecks from southern and rural OH.
The Ohio River Valley particularly over by WV is indeed tough. But recently the cognitive dissonance among "rednecks" with threatened pocketbooks there has been palpable.
If the public perception that Obama is friendlier to working-class and middle-class economic interests continues, we could see a reverse Bradley effect there.
I don't think that a day of non-motion in the polls is really a tie at this point; politically speaking, every day of the status quo is very good for Obama, since the status quo is that Obama will most likely win.
However, there can't be too much harm in the Obama campaign diverting a bit more of their resources towards Ohio at this point.
Go, go, gadget, John Lewis! The McCain campaign gets more nonsensical by the say.
Also, I'm down with Greensleeves.
given the choice of hating or eating
I like that, newsfromoh, I'm stealing it. ;-)
The Great White Hope
John McCain will hit his stride this week. Four weeks before Election Day he finds himself sitting atop a mountain of white discontent. He has by default become the repository of all anti-black racial angst in this country. Anyone who knows John McCain knows that this is not his natural constituency. Truly, he is the maverick of the Republican Party. Whatever Bush was, he wasn’t. It is for this reason that he became the darling of the Press. That and his congenial and open manner, given to authentic straight talk that needled the right and pleased the left. The man is many things, but racist is not one of them. In this regard he is like Clinton, steamrolled wrongly on the race issue for the sake of Obama’s electability. Tag teamed on it by the opposition campaign and the media.
John McCain faces an enormous challenge. For the sake of his history and our own, it will be important, if not essential, for him to defuse any latent racial animus. He must do this swiftly and definitively. Obama’s election must be cloaked in legitimacy as must a McCain victory. We cannot afford to have this election tainted by tinges of rasicm and there being a large segment of society feeling rejected and disaffected. We could be b adly split and wounded as a nation as a result.
McCain with his sense of duty and an ingrained love of country along with the wisdom of his years understands this. He knows the nation must be healed. He would rather lose the election, I think, than win in an inappropriate way.
McCain lurched in the right direction Friday when he defended Obama, correcting a woman’s mis-assertion that Obama was “an Arab”. “No. . . . decent family man . . . no.” And earlier shouted down those who were booing Obama, admonishing them that he and they had to be respectful and run a respectful campaign. He assured his listeners that Obama was not “scary.” It was a better endorsement than Bill Clinton gave him.
McCain could not have been more forthright in denying and defending. He understands the stakes.
While cautioning and calming his crowds, McCain and the RNC are broadcasting a series of broadsides regarding Obama’s tainted associations. This is a legitimate area of inquiry as there seems to be a certain lack of completeness in the biography of the presumptive next POTUS. And the media seems astonishingly incurious. Yet it appears that the public has at least a passing interest in the topic, despite attempts by the Obama campaign and its media allies to shout down the line of inquiry. Certainly we can fill in a bit of the bio in between the longer riffs on the economy. Perhaps the time it takes to debunk the racist fear-mongering.
In a tone deaf move, the Obama campaign has let venerable African- American Congressman John Lewis accuse the McCain campaign of stoking racism and accusing them of all sorts of other bad stuff. He was quoted as saying that McCain was sowing the seeds of hatred, comparing him to George Wallace and drawing a link to violence against black folk, like the bombing of the church in Birmingham during the sixties that took the lives of four young black girls. The McCain campaign reacted with appropriate outrage and scorn. McCain himself demanded his own apologies, including one from Obama himself.
The Obama campaign’s response was predictable: Characterizing the Congressman’s remarks as somewhat extreme, but suggesting that perhaps McCain was in fact to blame.
Game on.
John McCain it seems must calm the fear within the electorate, taking action where Obama is passive. Obama cannot do it. But McCain can. The question is: Can McCain transcend the race issue that is increasingly being injected into the campaign and do so in such a manifestly honorable way that he becomes an acceptable alternative to an unknown Obama? Can he win?
With the markets facing their worst shellacking since the Great Depression and this week ranking right up there with the worst of the sudden tumbles of the early 30s, we may be at an economic tipping point. Imagine the terror that each side feels when contemplating victory by the other. I’d split the true believer unmovable partisans equally, no advantage either side.
Is the Conservative or Liberal Agenda more apt for the time? Or do we want something in between?
Jump ball for the folks in the middle.
My money is on McCain. I think he has the stones and the heart to heal this nation. Obama is too cool and detached to truly embrace us. He can preach to us, but he cannot heal us. John McCain stumbled around that stage on Tuesday and I could think of nothing but his suffering in captivity. He was a big lumbering bear, but at least he got off his ass and danced for us. Obama hung back, slumped on his stool, a look of bemused indulgence on his face. He stood slump shouldered and loose before us, not at all stiff of stumbling like with McCain. He competed for us. He will fight for us.
Ask yourself: In whose embrace would you rather be when the world is tumbling down around you? I think each will answer according to his or her heart and their vote will follow.
With such a basic and intrinsic decision to be made, it is apparent why the race is so fluid. Nothing has been fixed, least of all an Obama lead one month before the vote.
Better to be ahead in 25 days!
Pete Kent
PS: “TrooperGate” Lays an Egg -- I hear it’s going straight to video as a narrative.
If Obama was white, he'd be beating McCain like Reagan beat Mondale. The only votes McCain should be getting are the intolerant right and the wealthy. As far as the economy and foreign policy, I'll take calm and calculated over the gunslinging "maverick".
"McCain will win Ohio."
I do not necessarily disagree with you. I think Obama will likely win Ohio, but his margins in other swing states like CO, VA, FL will be larger.
forget about trying to beat OH into submission
OH will come along to get along when all the other states are onboard the Obama train - plus it is a waste of resources now because of diminishing returns
Obama is sitting just fine in OH
same goes for FL - you can put too much effort out & get a backlash. let the tide grow organically if everything else remains stable
press forward in IN & MO & WV
take the game to Mac & the GOPers in VA & NC & SC & GA & MS & LA & AR
make a push in TX to support the DEMs & put it in Mac's face
go back to MT & ND & be sure to press the game in AK to put it in Palin's face & support Begich
MN & WI & IA will take care of themselves
be do not take NM & CO & NV for granted - but make a tripinto AZ too !!!
go for the 50 state strategy as that plays well for the entire electorate - do NOT concentrate all resources in just a few big battlegrounds as that is overkill & not a mandate winning strategy at this point
do MORE national ads to penetrate every state & support the party & dampen the red tide further...
I'm glad to see John Lewis calling out McCain-Palin on their divisive, hate-filled campaign. I am once again honored to have him as my Congressman.
Pete the Parrot
earlier today your little 'friend' Graham said you were 'traveling'
take another trip & try to locate a land called 'reality'
I'll have some of what PeteKent is having.
Also,
I thought everyone might be interested to know I've been seeing lots of Obama ads here in GA the last week or so. I've seen maybe 4-5 every day. After a couple months of nothing he's back suddenly.
PeteKent said: "The Great White Hope"
Hmm, maybe "The Great White Hype"?
"John McCain will hit his stride this week."
Ahh, prognostications again, eh? Just like the "fundamental voter shift to Republicans" you mentioned a few weeks ago, I think. Yep, that's gonna happen any day now....
Yep you betcha, waiting for it....
Hmm, still waiting.
I don´t think McCain will win Ohio but if he wins OH he need win FL too and Colorado.
It´s difficult for him.
Some nice numbers in the Scenario analysis:
loses Ohio, wins election - 70%
wins VA when losing Ohio - 65%
wins all Kerry states - 75%
Landslide - 35%
I just watched Recount on HBO and damn do I hope this one is an Obama blowout. I don't want these guys to even have a chance at stealing this one.
McCain vs. McCain.
Was anyone else made uncomfortable with Pete Kent's post? There was no attempt to hide the race baiting, and the fact that he was so open about it, means he think it is okay. I think Republicans are going to start to get very ugly, which will drive even more voters to Obama.
haven't seen any CO polls in a while....i have a strong feeling CO is more of a toss up than the current analysis...any info on when we will see more CO polls?
Nate / Sean - when all this is over, you guys should do another road trip and let us 538ers treat you to victory dinners and drinks around the country.
And let's start an "Impeach Clarence Thomas" movement so Obama can really get his agenda going with a supportive Supreme Court!
COOPER
that is excellent news
FL is doing just fine, especially northern & central FL where I am
since JAX & the panhandle are basically So GA, there is hope for the SE will continue to trend toward Obama
are your ads negative ads against Mac or mostly the optimistic Obama ads playing here in FL where he speaks to the camera ?
those are working to incrementally move the UNDs & INDs & soft GOPers
Mac has a severe backlash here in FL against his cranky, nasty, fearmongering ads
we do not appreciate the message
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH !
@Lani:
I didn't see any other reply to your inquiry (which may merely prove that I skimmed too quickly) but if you want to understand those categories (as well as a lot more aobut this site) read the FAQs. Essentially Nate is using certain "demographic" data as indicators of certain social attitudes.
Recount - Obama needs to make it clear that we Dems did not steal the election. Can't give the opposition any excuses. I don't want 8 years of more whining about ACORN.
To Deconstructionism: The U of Cincinnati poll is a statewide poll of OH.
On Fox news today. They were saying Obama is only up by about 5 points and if you add in undecideds they will all go to McCain. And if the election was held today Obama Maybe would win by 1 percentage point or maybe lose. This was a Democratic Pollster. Is this real or is this guy working with FOX to show a bias towards McCain. Everything I have seen Obama is way ahead.
I saw recount the other day Josh. I thought it was remarkably fair minded in some ways. It wasn't as completely one eyed as I had feared it might be. Not 'whiney liberals' still complaining about ancient history.
can't believe I'm seeing this:
John McCain is now attacking civil rights icon John Lewis.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14488.html
What the hell is going on in this country?
---------------------------------------
I thought John McCain said Lewis was his best friend?
BUCKEYE
that is funny about FAUX since thier own poll rleased yesterday says Obama is up by +7...
and basically Rasmussen is their house shill & even he begrudgingly admits that Obama is at least +7 and stable for 2 weeks...
both well outside the MOEs so just shows how unfair & unbalanced they really are IMO
Here is the scariest thing as far as I am concerned! November the 5th will either be an awesome day, when I won't be able to stop smiling, or a terrible when I just want to hide away and not face a hateful and small world.
New Mason-Dixon Ohio poll to be released in a few hours:
HeroMcCain 51%
ZeroHussein 47%
New PPP Colorado poll:
HeroMcCain 46%
ZeroHussein 46%
From a LIBERAL pollster! So that means the Hero is closing in on the Zero in Colorado, and is AT LEAST 5 points ahead.
Sorry, libtards, but the party is over. The Muslim terrorist ObamaOsama is finished. My Marine buddies will never vote for the Muslim.
McCain landslide in November. Bank on it.
SUPPOERT OUR TROOPS!
911, ITS WHY WE FIGHT!
MARINE CORE DO OR DIE!
SIMPER FI
MCCAIN/PALLEN 08!
PALLEN/ELIZABETH DOLE '12 & '16!
DNFTT
Ha ha ha ha ha.
When never to trust a poll posted by a right winger- when it says a poll that will be released in a few hours.
just the mention of 'RECOUNT" gives me the creeps.
I live in one of the infamous counties in FL [Volusia] that contributed mightily to that travesty of electoral thievery
that is why we are trying to boot out the GOPer machinery that runs this county,including the supervisor of elections who is still using many of the same thieving electronic machines thaqt gave Gore a -16,000 count on ONE machine alone on Nov 4th, 2000 which helped initiate the recount...
Pretty obvious troll 'der He.
I mean, "Marine Core"? Come on.
www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015130.php
A little article of interest. The McCain/Palin ticket is truly made up of a coupla mavericks.
DCM in FL:
The ads are about the economy (shocking) so they dismiss McCain's plan and outline parts of Obama's. Substantive attack ads with that nice Obama "hope" feel at the end. haha.
simper fi?
for the trolls out there [Pete the Parrot & HE]
enough of the racist rants. did you see the latest release from PPP ?
'White Voters Fueling Obama Gains in the South'
@ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/whitesinthesouthreport.pdf
read it 'n' weep. your base is abandoning ship fast even in the south !!!
Obama will carry VA & FL with a shot at NC & GA & maybe more
Pete Kent, it is truly hilarious that you believe Gov. Palin's unlawful abuse of power doesn't have legs as a narrative. It is a defining moment for her and I guarantee it will be a fixture in the media from now until election day. And when the GOP loses, the talking heads will continue to reference Palin's abuse of power as one of many reasons why McCain went down so hard in the final round. Your prediction that the story will go "straight to video" is delusional. http://www.popduds.com
Who emerges to challenge the incumbent governor in the next Alaska Republican Primary? Whichever 'R' wins the primary, most likely wins the General.
I live in Ohio and have been skeptical of the polls that showed Obama ahead by sometimes up to 7 points but anecdotal evidence among my reliable conservative voting friends (none of them of the evangelical bent), they are unenthused and many are saying they can't vote for McCain (to be clear they say they won't vote for Obama either). It seems, in comparison to 2004, that Obama will win but only by a point or two.
FIZZ
I can see it now, Tina Fey with a mask on & whip in hand 'abusing' her poor AK state employees...
gawd, what a premise for a scathing skit on SNL
creepy but true & just in time for Halloween too
I bet this will up the turnout of scary/abusive Sarah Palin costumes on Oct 31st - just in time for the election !!!
GO PALIN !!!
or she will do the 'right' thang & finally step aside to avoid becoming even more of an INTERNATIONAL running joke
[I for one hope she stays in this until the 'bitter' end]
petekent:
The current issue of the hateful mobs is not about racism. You really missed the point, as you are wont to do...and at great length.
"Traitor" is not racist. "Terrorist" is not racist. "Kill him!" is not racist.
This is the "venerable" base reacting to the McCain campaign's smears, not to racist attitudes.
The GOP is relying on racism to win the day, but they have not openly made racist appeals. They have no need to. Those who reject Obama on racial grounds do not need the approval or encouragement of the McCain campaign.
Instead, Obama is portrayed as Huey Newton, Che Guevara, and Malcom X rolled into one. That is not racism. It is a continually-drummed theme that Obama is a Marxist Muslim who will support terrorism and corruption.
Too bad you and your Marine buddies are about to have to take orders from that Muslim terroristObamaOsama.
You just can't make this stuff up.
REALITY: Finding #1 of the Branchflower report states: "...I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaskan Statue 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Acts."
SARAH PALIN TODAY (emphasis mine): "A reporter noted that the report concluded that she had abused her power as governor. Ms. Palin replied, “There was no abuse of authority at all in trying to get Officer Wooten fired.”"
ZOMGWTF?
The "he" troll also wrote "simper fi" instead of "semper fi" and mispelled Palin, so yeah "he" must be the kind of guy who gets access to poll results hours before general release.
The only tracker change of note today is Hotline zoomed to a 10-point Obama lead after having Obama ahead by only 1 point 3 days ago. What's up with that?
Also, I note the only people applauding McCain on the blogosphere for tampering down the Obama attacks by voters at his rallies are folks who will never vote for McCain no matter how genteel he is. Yet McCain is pissing off his base. What a strategic moron he is.
Also when a woman said Obama was an Arab, McCain said that he was not but rather a "decent family man" -- implying no Arab could be a decent family man." LOL.
It appears that 1994 was the beginning of the last gasp for political parties entwining themselves with religious beliefs. The Republican
party has run the "values" theme as far as that horse would carry them but demographics are going to force a change. Too many electoral
votes are in states that are put off by belief-based politics. While the war and economy may be causing this to happen a little early, the longer-term trend is clear.
The Republican party is going to have to figure a way to reduce
the influence of the religious right. McCain had the right
idea with his potential choice of Lieberman as VP. He could have
grabbed some of the moderate vote and let those on the right hold
their nose as they voted for him. Whoever gave McCain the advice to
pick Palin should be sent gifts by Democrats everywhere.
ERIC
we will soon all be HUSSEINs !!!
go BHO
I believe the only chance McCain has at this point is take his campaign topless! Yes, you heard me, John Sidney McCain in between Cindy and Sarah.. looking like a big boob sandwich!
The funny thing is how the conservative freep types are half joking when they say how Obama will turn us all into socialist marxist racist terrorists, when all us liberals and progressives KNOW thats whats going to happen
Mwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Blue CA [USC] is walloping Red AZ [ASU] in the LA Coliseum this afternoon [21-0 at halftime]
ASU has about as much chance of beating USC in the second half with a come-back-for-the-ages as John McCain has of beating out Obama come November 4th IMHO
GO TROJANS & BHO !!!
too bad for the Sun Devils & the GOPers...
MATT
your topless scenario is too funnie - but didn't Mac already suggest that when he suggested his wife join that topless 'beauty contest' at Sturgis during the motorcycle rally back in August ?
at this point, the ol' codger will try anything - and Cindy probably would too if she got enough meds to tide her over... [my bad]
Money quote from Page 66 of the report: "Governor Palin knowingly permitted a situation to continue where impermissible pressure was placed on several subordinates in order to advance a personal agenda, to wit: to get Trooper Michael Wooten fired. She had the authority and power to require Mr. Palin to cease contacting subordinates, but she failed to act.
Such impermissible and repeated contacts create conflicts of interests for subordinate employees who must choose to either please a superior or run the risk of facing that superior's displeasure and the possible consequences of such displeasure. This was one of the very reasons the Ethics Act was promulgated by the Legislature....In this case, Governor Plain has declined to provide an interview. [WTF, SRSLY?]"
Emphasis mine.
Actually, USC is quite Republican leaning (filled with rich TFBs (trust fund babies)) and is Cindy McCain's alma mater. Rival UCLA is heavily Democratic.
Overall CA went for Kerry by 10 points and I expect Obama's margin to be about 14 here (+ or - 2), barring a shocking October surprise).
MRINSIGHT
I know, I lived in LA for 20+ years
my analogy was a representative os a blue state - not that the scool was blue or their colors
same for ASU
it was a lark, not a political message
but USC is not the real bastion of neo-cons in LA, especially their blue-collar fans - you are talking about the alumni base
that would be Pepperdine U for the neo-cons
UCLA fans in Pasadena @ the Rose Bowl are probably more red/gop than blue/dem in comparison to USC fans IMHO & from observations in the stadia
The mis-spelled ravings by "He" are proof of the failure of "No Child Left Behind" as he apparently was.
What will be funnier on SNL?
(1) Watching Palin order Todd around in a Troopgate skit similar to the Regan skit on Iran-contra.
(2) Watching McCain lost on stage during the debate with Obama, yelling at Brokaw that he wont be in his cabinet (like a senile old man). LOL.
Hey where did all the Ron Paul people go? Are they skipping this election? I don't see evidence of them on teh internets anymore. Maybe they are the cicada insect of politics -- making a lot of NOISE every election cycle but producing nothing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cicada
@ Todd Dugdale,
Perhaps I missed your point, but I have to quibble with your take on what the GOP is doing. They are not airing openly racist ads because they can't get away with it, but they are running ads that target almost exclusively racist and xenophobic sentiments about Obama.
McCain might want to say that his attacks are based on policy positions and record, when in fact those only come through in the debate, because McCain himself can't even participate in the shameless tactics of his campaign (Palin is a different story).
The McCain campaign is, as you point out, using the Newton/Guevara/X model for Obama, but the thing is, that model would never work if Obama were white. Instead they would attack him for being a limp-wristed coward, as they did Kerry.
The McCain campaign has absolutely and intentionally injected race into this campaign, but McCain might legitimately be so out of touch that he doesn't realize it.
"Traitor," "terrorist," and "kill him" may not be racist statements, but I sure as hell have never seen reports in the mainstream press before about angry mob campaign rallies where these things are yelled about a leading presidential candidate. There's a reason for that, even if McCain will pretend that there isn't.
Hey ignore Kent he spams about ten websites with that shite everyday and he's an old PUMA from HRCis44 that's all, so so funny Petey go from supporting Hills to that creature eh? ya prat.
SNL tonight is a rerun
I live in Cincinnati Ohio which for as long as I can remember has leaned Republican and its disturbing the way it looks this year. I've heard all over the place that Cincy is a toss up and I tend to believe it. Typically by now there'd be signs up in yards and driving around the presidential campaigns would be unavoidable. I've probably seen only 2 or 3 signs up in my area.
OH is tough, no doubt. But look at the rewards! 20 EV!
Palin switched to the "abortion" issue, she no longer has teeth in her attack on Obama's trustworthiness. She lost credibility on that stuff. Abortion is a non-starter for indies and undies, anyway. She's just preaching to the choir.
Obama has to stay focused on middle class and small businesses. Keep cool. And keep the voting machines on check, and keep the security tight.
I noticed in thepast 2 days McCain has gain 2 points in the Galliup poll and about a point in the Zoby poll. Should we be concerned? Actually, I don't know how much stock I put in Gallup, since I heard they don't conduct their poll based on party affliation. I think in order to get an accurate poll, you probbly should take party affliation into consideration. I wold even go a step further and say one should subtract 1% from Democrats and add a 1% to the Republicans affliates, since many registered Democrats will vote Democrats, but few register Republicans will vote Democratic. It seems many of the polls are around 5, with Gallup and Newsweek being around 9-11%. being one of the few that are that high. I wonder if they are the outlyers. The pessimestic side of me tells me the race is probably around 5%.
The coutnry isdivided between red and blue states, but I notice it's even broken down further than that within each state. I nthe states I've seen broken down by county, I noticed that the Democrats win the cities, while the Republicans win the rural parts of each state. The ole city folks versus country folks battle.
In Florida, the Democratic areas is the Miami Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach. Orlando is slightly more Democratic. 51% for Kerry 49% for Bush in 2004, Tampa, and the two college towns of Gainseville and Tallahassee.
Obama may be leading in Florida, but when he actually wins it, I'll believe it. If it's close, I don't trust the results. I also have my doubts about Ohio too. I think Obama has a good chance of winning without those two states anyway, but I sure hope it's bigger than a 5% lead heading into election day. I think anyone who remembers 2000 and to a lesser extent 2004, will not feel comfortable until after election day. 25 days is an eternity in an election cycle.
Maki...
I also live in Cincinnati. I was driving through Mt. Lookout, Hyde Park and the Northside last week and was stunned to see how many more Obama signs there were than McCain. I mean a lot. And in Anderson, where I live, I have seen more Obama than I expected. Have faith! I also saw some Obama people canvassing the Oakley area today, as well as a lot of Obama signs in Madisonville and Mariemont. I felt reassured by that.
I've noticed in the last few days, polls are dropping for Obama in battleground states, even though they have been merely a point or two. I am wondering whether Obama has reached its ceiling and it's down hill from here on!
Frankly, I don't believe Obama can carry on OH, FL, or NV. However, his best chance is to focus on VA and CO but at the same time do not abandon NC, MO just to keep the pressure on McCain.
P.S. As a Georgian, I don't understand why Obama is wasting his precious money on GA. I've lived here for more than a decade and I can assure you that there is no way he can overcome the bucolic nature of this state.
The zogby poll is a joke add 4 points to whatever they say. They are using a plus 2 democratic weight while ras is using 6 and other polls have it 8 or more.
They are under counting Obama`s support using the same data as 2004.
Almost all polls have Obama at 51-52% while zogby is stuck at 48. add 4 and you have a correct poll. His McCain support is about the same as other polls while he is way under counting obama`s.
I hate to admit it, but I was around when Kennedy was assassinated. The climate at McCain-Palin events reminds me of the climate in Dallas in November 1963. Shortly before Kennedy was assassinated, Adlai Stevenson was attacked by a mob in Dallas and advised Kennedy not to visit. Should Kennedy have condemned Stevenson's advice? No, he should have listend to it.
I wouldn't be so surprised to see Sen. McCain win Ohio. For whatever reason, the state insists on its swing status, but goes republican in the end. It serves the purpose of sucking the resources out of democratic campaigns, then leaving them dry and in the dust.
I am curious if anyone has any data on cell phone polls. I recently read that 20% of American households do not have landlines. I think that those people could be young and possibly more liberal voters.
Peter B Fitzgerald said...
I wouldn't be so surprised to see Sen. McCain win Ohio. For whatever reason, the state insists on its swing status, but goes republican in the end. It serves the purpose of sucking the resources out of democratic campaigns, then leaving them dry and in the dust.
********
MOney doesn't seem to be Obama's problem. It's McCain who has to worry about running out of money, to Ohio could be sucking his bank dry needlessly, when he should be winning Ohio without spending so much time and money there. McCain HAS to win OHio. If Obama wins it, it's just icing.
I think the troopergate report will be a non issue. As someone on her mentioned yesterday, the people who are concerned already aren't going to vote for her, and the rest are just so in love with her, it doesn't matter what came out. As far as they are concerned, the report said she didn't break any laws, she just abused her powers.
Pete Kent said: "Ask yourself: In whose embrace would you rather be when the world is tumbling down around you?"
Please Pete, I don't need any more encouragement to fantasize about being in Barack's embrace :)
Can someone please explain why McCain is still campaigning in Iowa? And for that matter, why is he still acting as if he has a chance in Pennsylvania. He's down by double digits. Obama is doing better in Texas than McCain is doing in Pennsylvania.
By the way, hope Mrs. Palin is enjoying her bus tour of West Virginia this weekend.
As much as I'd love to see Obama win the election I'm not convinced he will regardless of what the polls say. I read about and meet too many people who just won't vote for a black man. It really sucks.
petekent: Anyone who knows John McCain knows that this is not his natural constituency. Truly, he is the maverick of the Republican Party
He's sure had a funny way of showing it for the past several months.
He would rather lose the election, I think, than win in an inappropriate way.
This is the guy who began his criticisms of Obama not on policy but on sarcasm about him being "The One" and then with his "Celebrity" ad which used innuendo without stating anything concrete and without any supporting facts.
And now he's been using innuendo about Ayers to imply...what exactly? That Obama approves of terrorism? That Obama doesn't care about protecting Americans? If that's what McCain thinks, why doesn't he just say it?
I used to respect Senator McCain, but as his own commercials say, he approves those messages. Perhaps now that the election seems increasingly out of reach, now he's trying to avoid doing still more damage to the nation in the process. But that's a pretty late decision for someone who was supposedly concerned about winning in an "inappropriate" way.
sewathi: As much as I'd love to see Obama win the election I'm not convinced he will regardless of what the polls say. I read about and meet too many people who just won't vote for a black man.
Wouldn't the sentiments of most of that group already be reflected in the polls? If so, then the polls aren't off by much.
To Reader:
The (Reagan appointed) federal judge's order has been overturned by the federal court of appeals that covers Ohio.
Here's the AP story
I'm not sure the Ohio Poll is as accurate as you think it is. Maybe it was right in the primaries, but during the 2006 governor race it showed that Blackwell and Strickland were close. It ended up being a complete blowout, and it was never close. Rasmussen and Gallup always had Strickland with a double digit lead.
We'll see in November how accurate they are.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=28973
Where's Obama's signature?
Regarding the UC poll in Ohio...
it's the Ohio newspapers poll. It's only a poll of those who read Ohio newspapers and who know where to go online to vote. So that's the first clue that the sample isn't representative of all Ohioans. Considering this methodology, I'm not even sure the poll should be used in Nate's numbers.
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