With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive.
There's just nothing in there for McCain to hang his hat on. Even a pollster like Strategic Vision, which has generally had a Republican lean this cycle, now has Florida and Ohio going against them (Florida in a big way). Well, OK, maybe they'll hold on to Indiana, although both campaigns' internals likely have the state closer than Rasmussen does.
McCain is getting some criticism for campaigning in Iowa, and for sending Sarah Palin out to West Virginia, but the truth is that their electoral hand is so poor right now that it doesn't much matter in which states they're deciding to bide their time. Remember, any world in which McCain has a chance to win on Election Day is a world that looks very different from this one -- some significant event will have to have occurred to fundamentally change the momentum of the race. We don't know which states might be affected disproportionately by such an event, and so a lot of states are conceivably worth attacking or defending, any of which could potentially become more important in the face of unknown unknowns.
10.10.2008
Today's Polls, 10/10
@ 6:18 PM
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327 comments
With numbers like these, it’s time. Time…for the dreaded October surprise. What will it be?
Be afraid. Be very afraid. Like you would a cornered animal.
October surprise? You mean Troopergate? That would be great news for McCain.
I wonder if Obama will hit 375 in the projection by Nov 3rd?..
I think Sean said it best earlier:
They. Are. So. F#$%ed.
wow, thanks Nate! Great numbers today! I wish we would get some polls from W.V.
and It looks like IN is treading back to McCain?
i feel all warm and tingly.
At this point, I'm just hoping that the October Surprise isn't a combination of race riots and economic hardship leading to the suspension of the election.
Barring, god forbid, a terrorist attack or assassination, McCain will not win this election.
Palin's not campaigning in West Virginia. She's flying in there, but immediately crossing into Ohio.
http://wvgazette.com/News/200810100564
McCain/Palin=gotterdammerung.
I want the election and I want it right NOW!!!
Watching McCain at a rally in Minnesota --- for the first time, he looks and speaks as if he is defeated. He is backing down from the rhetoric from the foaming crowd. It appears he may be trying to finish with dignity...he actually calmed the crowd down and reassured them that if Obama was elected, he would be a fine president!!
Nate,
The Gallup poll is not listed as a tracking poll! I think it needs the "/3".
Thanks
I vote for suddenly pulling Osama bin Laden out of the cave.
Has WSOC-TV done any other polling this cycle? That's a pretty small weight to give a new-comer, no? Especially one 2.8 off of someone like Ras? Maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about, that just looks strange to me.
What happened to the "cooties" post?
Dude, your site is crack cocaine for this political junkie. Bravo.
I don't think anything can derail the "Sane Talk Express" now. The third debate is going to be the sweet final nail in the stinking corpse of this campaign.
McCain just looks defeated at rallies now. It's like he almost wishes he could just drop out now.
Hey, what happened to the "Does McCain have cooties" post?
even with another GREAT day of polling, the 538 model is slow to move further toward Obama.
talk about inching up incrementally...
man those win percentages & EVs & Popular Vote #'s barely budged...
but 91% is feeling fine !!!
"Watching McCain at a rally in Minnesota --- for the first time, he looks and speaks as if he is defeated. He is backing down from the rhetoric from the foaming crowd. It appears he may be trying to finish with dignity...he actually calmed the crowd down and reassured them that if Obama was elected, he would be a fine president!!"
Waving the white flag of defeat? Please Lord, let it be so.
i vote for a nuke going off in a coastal city...
"Obama was elected, he would be a fine president!!"
__________________________________
Too little, too late.
Has the porn librarian stopped yet? Somehow I doubt it.
At this point, I'm just hoping that the October Surprise isn't a combination of race riots and economic hardship leading to the suspension of the election.
If there is an october surprise that's probably what it will be.
"I feel a tingling up my leg"
I think McCain is not *quite* stupid enough to still think he has a shot at this. If he actually starts toning down the rhetoric and making nice with Obama, I'll regain a modicum of respect for him.
the next challenge:
The Great Blue Road Trip: from Miami to Seattle without getting any red on your wheels.
the Real Joe Effect™ will make it happen. just watch.
love it. LOVE IT.
gerbie: Elections took place during the Civil War - what makes you think this comparative hiccup will stop them?
this is great news for JOHN McCAIN!!!
lol
looks like ARG polls scared the s**t out of the GOP ticket and their sending their beutey queen to WV
obama should go to MT, i hear Ron Paul is stealing votes from McCain there (CNN)
Being 20+ days away from the election, what's the realistic limit on how high someone's Win% can be?
The ironic thing is, McCain could gain ground if he suspended everything he's doing, held a press conference and said, "You know, my friends, I realize that I've been racing into the gutter in my campaign, more concerned with winning an election by any means necessary rather than focusing on the American people. I hereby suspend any and all negative advertising and negative talk attacking Senator Obama. I will win or lose this election with honor and focus on solutions for the people who need them."
Millions would instantly forgive him and his numbers would jump. But he'll never do it. He's too hotheaded and egotistical and the GOP smear machine is on autopilot now. A sad end for a once admirable man.
To Abbie Nermal - I agree with how McCain looks defeated but it's far too late for him to go out with dignity. He should go for scorched earth. He destroyed any remaining shred of honor he had in the Palinater.
in the Palinater.
"i vote for a nuke going off in a coastal city..."
______________________________
You may want to rephrase that.
That would be great for the Republicans. Like Jon Stewart said in 2004, access to the ocean or very large lakes tends to make voters Dems.
book surgeon: Didn't he already suspend his campaign once? Except he didn't? He'll be like the old coot who cried "I'll suspend my campaign"...
don't panic said...
the next challenge:
The Great Blue Road Trip: from Miami to Seattle without getting any red on your wheels.
It's getting pretty close already, as long as you're willing to detour through Canada*
*I'm assuming even our right wing would be comfortably Blue in the US system :P
West Virginia?!?! Of all places, WV, I thought, would be the safest for McCain. Remember those clips on The Daily Show? They were showing interviews of the people saying they wouldn't vote for him because he's black, because they think he's a "muslim", and because of his middle name.. Now, it's a tossup state. Holy smokes.
Woo! Georgia!
-- Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin! --
Don't Panic,
How do you get past the great wall of ID, UT, and AZ? other than that I can see it happening, but those are 3 pretty safely red states
I think funny things may happen to the map if George filps. I think were about to see West Virginia flip but if Georgia flips, in predictions that will be the nail in coffin. That will break a lot of Republicans from even bothering to vote and all the sudden, Montana, South and North Dakota open up, Nebraska, at least the 2nd and I think Arkansas, Louisiana, and maybe even South Carolina and Mississippi. Frankly I"m surprised at how well McCain has be able to hold Arizona this long.
It makes sense that it doesn't matter where McCain and Palin go now. The Investment Index has almost flattened out.
R2000 DKos is Obama +12 not 14
I agree that McCain needs to campaign in the states that will be important if this is a close race. But in no case will that be Iowa. None.
He basically should spend all his time in VA, OH, FL, CO, and Nevada. He should assume that NC, MO, and Indiana will fall back to him in a close race, although 2 of those states border Illinois and Obama has solid ground games there as a result. But he can't afford to cover those, so he should jsut assume they are us.
But I can't see how Iowa is close enough to justify his campaigning there.
@Nawaid,
I just got my absentee ballot on Wednesday and I was surprised to see Ron Paul on there as the Constitution candidate. There is a lot of support for Paul here (myself included). It will be interesting to see how Montana's election turns out.
Thanks to those who answered me kindly in the previous post. Maybe I was just seeing things, but it seemed to me like the numbers were refreshing more often than once per day. Like the rest of you, I check back OFTEN. (And I'm no troll.)
As for the "cooties" post, I noticed the time stamp was wrong when it first went up. More technical problems?
Why are VT and MA so much more liberal than NH???
Not October surprise, just another October shock:
McCain spokesman Brian Rogers pushes back against the storyline of rabid McCain crowds and Obama's criticism:
Barack Obama’s attacks on Americans who support John McCain reveal far more about him than they do about John McCain. It is clear that Barack Obama just doesn’t understand regular people and the issues they care about. He dismisses hardworking middle class Americans as clinging to guns and religion, while at the same time attacking average Americans at McCain rallies who are angry at Washington, Wall Street and the status quo.
Even worse, he attacks anyone who dares to question his readiness to serve as their commander in chief in chief. Raising legitimate questions about record, character and judgment are a vital part of the Democratic process, and Barack Obama’s effort to silence and shame those who seek answers should make everyone wonder exactly what he is hiding.
Yep, McCain's campaign OFFICIALLY DEFENDING MOBS. Arghhhhhhhhhhhh. I can't take it anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mc9cain: It's +14 for yesterday's sample.
Hey, what happened to the 'Does McCain have Cooties' post?
Does he? The American people deserve to know the truth.
sorry - I'm wrong. I forgot you were putting the daily versus the 3 day average here. I should know better than correct Nate!
AP:
Palin says supporters want tougher attacks on Obama
Link
@jen :
not saying i want it to happen, just saying that's what I BELIEVE will happen. (Then comes war with North Korea)
Wow!!! I'm so proud of my neighbors right now
Nate,
Do you take the Tom Bradley effect into account in your projections?
Thanks,
Nervous in DC
"How do you get past the great wall of ID, UT, and AZ? other than that I can see it happening, but those are 3 pretty safely red states"
_________________________________
I think the only reason Arizona is not in contention is that it is McCain's home state. Otherwise, it is a no go. In order to do the drive though, Texas and Arkansas would have to flip too.
Thanks, Robert. It's a good idea. I think McCain is getting the message as his polling continues to drop.
From Talking Points Memo:
At a rally late today in Minnesota, John McCain addressed the heated comments, including calls to violence, coming from some supporters at his rallies this week:
"I am enthusiastic and encouraged by the enthusiasm and I think it's really good," McCain said. "We have to fight and i will fight but we will be respectful. I admire Sen. Obama and his accomplishments and I want to be respectful.
Top Republicans and conservatives are speaking out about how vile his campaign has become.
It's awesome that Andrew Sullivan has linked to this site twice today
Lance,
NH is almost the refuge for conservatives in New England. It has almost a libertarian bent to it. State Motto: "Live free or die"
Wow Nate - I swear reading your made me hot (as in aroused!).
This is looking very good - I need a cold shower....
The October Surprise is Obama's surprise to be revealed in his 30 minute air time buy for Oct. 29.
In Canada we vote next tuesday. I kinda wish it was the US election with these numbers. Altough it feels like this is game over for the GOP.
http://pawatercooler.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/obama_mccain_080201_mn.jpg,
I just think Democrats need to keep up the support and only rest once the election is over. There's no room to be overconfident here, especially when McCain is running one of the most shameful campaigns in modern history.
@Lance J:
NH is a very very unusual state - To give you an idea, the state legislatures only get paid 200$/year and that amount is fixed in their constitution.
It is a very interesting microcosim on its own.
www.freestateproject.org is also active up there too.
Jen,
You can almost get from FL to MN! GA is the strongest holdout. then if ND and MT flipped you would only have a 45min section of ID to drive really fast across!
Funny story I heard at the local supermarket:
The other day I went downtown to run a few errands. I went into the local
coffee shop for a snack.
I was only there for about 5 minutes, and when I came out, there was this
cop writing out a parking ticket.
I said to him, 'Come on, man, how about giving a retired person a break'?
He ignored me and continued writing the ticket. His insensitivity annoyed
me, so I called him a 'Nazi.'
He glared at me and then wrote out another ticket for having worn tires
o I proceeded to call him a 'doughnut eating Gestapo.' He finished the
second ticket and put it on the windshield with the first.
Then he wrote a third ticket when I called him a moron in blue.
This went on for about 20 minutes. The more I talked back to him the more
tickets he wrote.
Personally, I didn't really care. I came downtown on the bus, and the car
that he was putting the tickets on had one of those bumper stickers that
said, ' McCain '08.'
I try to have a little fun each day now that I'm retired.
The doctor tells me that it's important for my health.
More Kansans registering as Dems, unaffiliated
Link
These polls are great news!!! For Barack Obama
Wow, look how BLUE that map is!
On this day, October 10th, in 2004, George Bush led John Kerry 47.8% to 46.0%.
For final results, please see Presidential inauguration, January 2005
John Kerry never led in any major tracking poll from this point out
(34) days since the Fundamental Shift toward McCain/Palin
You 'Cons should be getting nervous!
Congratulations to President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama Jr.!!!
newsfromOH-
You are a frekin' idiot. Got something positive to say about this country? Got a real fact and a real Obama plan to attack or just this veiled racist BS.
"Does he? The American people deserve to know the truth."
________________________________
What about the children? If McCain gives the cooties to this nation's children it would be horrible. Do you know how hard it is to be in grade school and have cooties? It would be very sad.
The presidents who were most hated when they were first elected were Abraham Lincoln (it started a way) and FDR. Obama will be regarded in the same vein as those two great "Ones." And the Obama-haters will be judged the same way history has judged Lincoln and FDR's adversaries (ie not very kindly!)
The blue state route...
FL-GA-NC-VA-MD-PA-OH-IN-IL-WI-MN-ND-MT-(jump over ID)-WA
If GA, IN, ND, and MT flip, which could happen.
Looks like the PIG in lipstick is toast , some slight leaks that the report on her is devastating ...
bwahahahahhaha
couldn't happen to a more bigoted racist HO than Palin
jen-
Beautiful, gorgeous comeback....
NC_voter,
With the numbers Obama is getting in NC and now in GA, do you think SC could be close come Nov. 4th?
Palin says supporters want tougher attacks on Obama
It was clear from the just completed rally by McCain in Minnesota that in the Q and A, the crowd was giving John endless suggestions to attack Obama...anyway he can...but to me, it was clear, McCain does not want anything to do with that...even in the last debate. I think I even heard a boo when he reassured a "scared father, worried what would happen if Obama became Pres.", that if somehow Obame became Pres that whe world would not come to an end and that Obama would do a fine job. McNasty must see the writing on the wall. Unfortunately his crowds want to hear nothing of quiting.
The FReeptards are basically calling BS on every single poll that doesn't show a McCain lead. If any poll has Obama ahead by double digits, it translates to +2 for McCain. It's fucking surreal how insane these people are.
Of course, we have a handful of these morons right here, including PeteKent, continue, jack_be_nimble.
Hey Robert,
I want to hear more about your great shaming conversation with a McCain staffer. Good for you!!!!!
Like MLK (among others) said, the arc of the moral universe is long but it bends towards justice.
This is a unique election, but is reminiscent in some ways of 2...1980 and 1992. I remember the more obvious it became that Bush 1 was going to lose, the uglier he got, like, as some have said about McCain, a cornered animal. Truth is, the cornered animal is usually doomed, no matter how much it spits , growls, bites and bares its fangs. Sick thing is, McCain is setting the table where an unhinged 20% of the country is going to be convinced that the election was stolen by the blacks and the mainstream media. McCain will have to live with the ugliness and (god forbid) worse he has spawned with his dishonorable campaign. Perhaps I am delusional, but I am hopeful that, once he is clear that he cannot win and just to give himself political cover and recover some of his former good name, McCain will ease up and pull back on the hate before it gets even uglier. C'mon "maverick"...country first (and patriots spell it WITH the o)
My kids and the polling updates on this site are the reason I get out of bed in the morning.
Johnnie Mac just needs a a nap...
actually, besides Tina Fey, Obama/Biden owe a debt to Mac's eratic decision to cancel his appearance on Letterman.
that faux pas has backfired on him endlessly & is taking a toll as David is slagging him nightly - which gets replayed over & over & over in a virtual loop on the news shows & cable.
Letterman replacing him with Keith Olberman was a coup for Obama also
now Letterman is probably worth a point or two if IN becomes a tossup since McCain & Palin are the butts of his nightly humor
and Mac wants to appear on the Late Show again later this month - and expects the show to start early for his own convenience at 5 instead of 5:30 PM taping.
Dave thinks that stinks - Mac can't do anything right, and Palin is worse.
Sarah wants to appear as herself on SNL in 2 weeks just before the election. hhhmmm
AxmxZ said...
gerbie: Elections took place during the Civil War - what makes you think this comparative hiccup will stop them?
GW Bush gave the POTUS the power to declare martial law. So he must have some apetite to prolongue his stay in the white house.
It may not happen, but it can.
LMAO, look at this old video with Sarah Palin praising Obama before she was selected as VP.
Obama should use it against them in ads!
http://current.com/items/89361488_palin_praises_obama_before_she_gets_picked_for_vp
McCain Calls On Supporters To Be Respectful Of Obama
Link
Great numbers!
To MONTREAL:
As an ex-South Carolinian, I'm afraid that Jesus will be selling snow cones in hell before SC turns blue. The state it too controlled by the self-proclaimed "Fortress of Fundamentalism."
You keep suggesting an October surprise. Care to share the secret? Please.
THIS JUST IN: Erratic McCain issues two statements defending supporters who want to assassinate Obama
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/this-just-in-erratic-mccain-issues-two.html
"FL-GA-NC-VA-MD-PA-OH-IN-IL-WI-MN-ND-MT-(jump over ID)-WA"
___________________________________
Stupid Idaho, ruining things for everyone.
Isn't it up there with Wyoming as one of the reddest of the red?
OOPS, sorry, meant to post to THIS link above... Fortress of Fundamentalism.
Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom
Betty didn't believe Ed (Mr. Krumpler to you) about them drilling in the Arctic, but anyway she certainly doesn't think the analogy makes the idea of selling their daughter's virginity to the highest bidder acceptable.
Mr. Krumpler says it's just the most logical use of an important natural resource owned by the Krumpler family as a commercial unit operating for the universal good.
He's also uncertain as to the intentions of the young Serbian family who recently moved in next-door-but-one and is giving consideration to a pre-emptive fire-bombing.
Mr. Krumpler, while something of a figure of fun in the larger community (amongst those milder folks who don't hold him up as an object of utter scorn and derision), is serious in himself and about what needs doing.
He believes he is following the most civilized of precepts, to say nothing of what God manifestly intends first and foremost for all Krumplers.
He once kept a delivery boy locked in his basement (against the delivery boy's will this was) until his wife (Betty) came home and testified that the delivery boy was indeed a bona fide delivery boy rather than an insurgent spy of some undetermined kind come to scope about amongst their inner sanctum the house.
Did this hurt the delivery boy's feelings, let alone egregiously infringe upon his civil rights? Without question. Did the Krumplers lose respect amongst sections of the pizza delivery community of Hillside? Yes again. Yet still, Ed Krumpler would likely comment that while he will not and cannot be the world's policeman, he must protect his people's own interests at all costs and if that means interrogating for just cause a delivery boy who's wearing a nametag with a foreign name on it or something that can't easily be said by a normal American and is probably theretofore foreign then, yes, he will ask the questions first and worry about hurt feelings a sight later, if at all realistically.
He calls time-out on his errant kids by shouting Interdiction! and being grounded is known more simply as Lockdown!
Ed Krumpler is not above the law.
Ed Krumpler believes that while he is the leader of his own Krumpler community, the law must and may and can be kept as the servant of he who is right, rather than a constriction for use by the enemies of his constituency.
Mr. Krumpler was perhaps the first amongst us to realize the conspicuous sanguinity of fully understanding on a public stage and then ennuciating that freedom is not free per se and et al. That the four freedoms we hold self-evident to be obvious must be protected and kept safe and in a secret place during times of uncertainty and unrest, if necessary. For your own good.
He has designated these freedoms with the code names of North, South, East, and West. There is a provisional plan even now awaiting approval that provides for these freedoms to be scattered to the four winds as needed should he give the get-go from the command center of his briefcase which is in his briefcase to ensure that it is mobile and beside him at all times apart from the times when it's behind him on the backseat seat of his lavender blue 1993 Chevy Suburban when he's driving around keeping an eye out or just sitting in it, outside the bank, say, or the Elks Lodge listening to Nana Mouskouri (who isn’t bad for being Greek) on his portable CD player which plugs into the accepting female bit of the Suburban's cigarette lighter thing, the male bit of which he threw out of the driver's window by mistake when on the Garden State Parkway and angry at Don Imus for being such a phony dangerous liberal, which doesn't matter too much now seeing as how for the good of the community, for America herself, he gave up smoking.
His daughter's name is Mary. She's still available at this time.
______________________
www.johnnygoodyear.com
Rich Merritt said...
To MONTREAL:
As an ex-South Carolinian, I'm afraid that Jesus will be selling snow cones in hell before SC turns blue. The state it too controlled by the self-proclaimed "Fortress of Fundamentalism."
It would be nice to be able to drive all the way to Florida without going true a red state. One day perhaps
NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, VA, CO, and NV will be blue in 2012, if all not this year.
MT, SC, GA, AZ, WV, and NE-Omaha will either be swing states or lean obama in '12.
SC, ND, AR, MS, LA, and TX might be tossups.
Theoretically, if Obama does an ok/good job in his first term, he could win re-election with anywhere from 408 (not taking into account redistricting) to 430 EV's.
UT, ID, WY, SD, NE KS, OK, AL, TN and KY will be red states for at least the next eight years.
The climate of hate that McCain and Palin have created
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/climate-of-hate-that-mccain-and-palin.html
GOP supporters now screaming for terrorist attack against Obama
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/gop-supporters-now-screaming-for.html
matt,
i know, a pretty massive wall.
and not the only one.
georgia-nebraska (if purple counts)-arizona is the least unlikely path;
or georgia-arkansas-texas-arizona
georgia-north dakota-montana is close if we allow for a short re-routing north of of the border by the kootenay lake, or if we waive the 50 miles from heron to newport
;-)
I still say an Obama chant breaks out in Philly tonight when Palin drops the ceremonial first puck!
Politico Article
"happen to a more bigoted racist HO than Palin"
_________________________________
So you are going to call out a bigoted racist with a sexist remark? Not cool at all. She may be a bigot and a racist but I do not think she is a "ho".
Well, to the extent we're worried about an October surprise, the Kerry + IA + CO + NM firewall currently looks pretty damn solid. By Nate's numbers, the weakest of those states for Obama right now is New Mexico, where Obama's "just" a 4-1 favorite.
So in order to throw the election, that Surprise would have to burn through a whole lot of light-to-medium-blue states on the map on the top-right of this page. Good luck, John. (Or Osama.)
Personally, I'd like to see the "Obama landslide" item in the Scenario Analysis table broken out a bit more. Sure, an Obama win with 375+ EV would be fabulous, but I wouldn't weep if Obama "only" beat McCain by (say) 360-178.
Any chance of tweaking the Scenario Analysis so that we can see Obama's odds of reaching 280, 290, 300, ... (etc.), or 370? If that'd be a huge amount of work, of course, never mind.
Mc9Cain said: R2000 DKos is Obama +12 not 14
I think Nate is using the daily results from Research 2000, rather than the 3-day average...thus, the +14 is correct.
franco,
do you have any info on those leaks? link?
Bring it on John McCain. Your dirty racist divisive tactics are being thrown back in your face and its nothing more than you deserve. I liked you before this campaign but now I wouldn't pass water over you after the dishonorable campaign that you have run in the last fortnight. Shame on you and good riddance to you.
An ounce of decency from McCain. From Time's Swampland:
Someone dangled a great big piece of low-hanging fruit in front of McCain: "I'm scared to bring up my child in a world where Barack Obama is president."
McCain replies, "Well, I don't want him to be president, either. I wouldn't be running if I did. But," and he pauses for emphasis, "you don't have to be scared to have him be President of the United States." A round of boos.
I hate the guy, but I dig that he made that comment.
I want both coast to go blue-
I need Obama to win VA,NC,SC,GA, FL so I can drive to my parents and avoid those pesky redstates.
The amazing part? That is concievable.
AP:
Palin says supporters want tougher attacks on Obama
...he actually calmed the crowd down and reassured them that if Obama was elected, he would be a fine president!!"
Good cop, bad cop. Could that work?
Whoo hoo!!! These poll numbers made my weekend.
I live in Arizona, just a couple of blocks from McCain's long-time home (and Cindy's childhood home) which they sold a couple of years ago. McCain lost my respect with the scandal about Cindy's drug addiction problem and stealing drugs from the charities she was involved with. McCain wasn't aware of her drug problem--her parents actually intervened. McCain was furious with her and showed no compassion at all. That did it for me.
I hope Nate's predictions are spot on except for Arizona--go BLUE!
The Daily Show: FOX News' Bizarre Obsession with Barack Obama and "fictional" ties to Ayers
http://www.crooksandliars.com/silentpatriot/daily-show-fox-news-bizarre-obsessio
"GW Bush gave the POTUS the power to declare martial law. So he must have some apetite to prolongue his stay in the white house."
___________________________________
How can you give yourself the power to do something? Is it like that "the gift" garbage?
If W can give himself the power to declare martial law, I give myself the power to undeclare it so Bush can kiss my @$$.
jen said:
...She may be a bigot and a racist but I do not think she is a "ho".
Wait a minute I guess "thoroughly vetted" doesn't mean what I think it means then. (sorry couldn't resist)
Follow up to real joe's post...
fred
Read my post again--the McCain campaign defended the actions at its campaigns. It attempted to turn the criticisms of the mobs into a statement that Obama doesn't understand Americans . . .
THAT's what's ridiculous! At the end of this campaign, these McCain campaign "geniuses" can join Cirque du Soleil with their heads up their butts contortionisms.
Obama 375, (That's my daily greetings.)
I heard on CNN today (so must be true!!!), MT governor saying with Ron Paul on the ballot there, McCain and Obama is currently "tie". Anyone have more info on that? Does Obama have a good ground team working in MT, anyone? If so, MT(3) may go O, and then with WV and possibly GA, I may have to adjust my prediction.
FreepTard Update
Apparently, the gallup polls are "bogus" because they are overweighting dems. How do they know this? Because they think that the Operation Chaos + PUMA registrations were so high, that it's really more like DEM +3-5.
The "bradley affect" is now at least 7%
The market crashing is due to the anticipation of an Obama win.
Also, ACORN is the new Ayers. If Obama wins, it's because ACORN was responsible for millions of fake voters.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Man I cannot wait to visit them on Nov 5th and witness the meltdown first hand.
McCain is not playing good cop, he just finally reached the point where he was shamed into telling his supporters the truth, He deserves no credit for it, his lying America hating VP should never have instilled this AIP crap in the idiots who support her. McCain is directly responsible for hiring Schmidt and choosing Palin and running the worst campaign in modern history, both strategically and in the gutter.
NINETY POINT NINE PERCENT WIN PERCANTAGE IS GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN
to MONTREAL:
I want to know too! We need to see some polling numbers out of SC! If NC and GA can go blue, why not our little enclave of secessionism?
John McCain-
Let me ask you - who allows their wife to be their attack dog?
Johnny-
What are you talking about?
fred said...
I want both coast to go blue-
I need Obama to win VA,NC,SC,GA, FL so I can drive to my parents and avoid those pesky redstates.
How about the lower 48 turning blue, and forcing the upper 1 into secession to punish them for staying red?
This election is a combination of 1992 and 1996-
1992- It is the economy Stupid.
1996- David Letterman quote- Bob Dole is old. Bill Clinton is Fat.
In 2004- John McCain is old. Barack Obama is skinny.
"Sure, an Obama win with 375+ EV would be fabulous, but I wouldn't weep if Obama "only" beat McCain by (say) 360-178."
I am down with any Obama win, be it a 269-269 tie that he wins in the House or a 538 vote landslide.
"The 'bradley affect' is now at least 7%."
As we've noted here before, the Bradely effect is only 3.5% because Obama is only half-black.
Fred, you can cross from GA to NC without going through SC. SC is not going to change.
So what's up with the Troopergate release? Hoping they'll miss the news cycle??? Must be bad if they're taking so long to let it out.
rich merritt said...
"The 'bradley affect' is now at least 7%."
As we've noted here before, the Bradely effect is only 3.5% because Obama is only half-black.
give me some weed
Anyone noticed how freeptards invariably say "Bradley Affect"?
Also, to normal people the caps lock key is the biggest pain in the ass on the keyboard - I know people who have ripped their caps lock key off. Not to freeptards however.
Someone needs to do a study...
I got polled for that Rasmussen Oregon poll. It was fun. Political party? None. Who are you voting for for President? Obama. Do you feel strongly about your choice? Couldn't feel more strongly about it. What's your #1 concern in this election? National security.
I was one of those people who was undecided six months ago. Nowadays you couldn't get me to vote for John McCain if you threatened to burn my house down otherwise.
Wait a minute I guess "thoroughly vetted" doesn't mean what I think it means then. (sorry couldn't resist)
___________________________________
Only in McCain's pervy, viagra inspired dreams!
Remember troopergate release is coming from Alaska and they are like 30 years behind the rest of the country. Opps I mean 4 hours behind the east coast.
jen - I didn't need that thought :-)
someone said:
"happen to a more bigoted racist HO than Palin"
______________________________
Jen replies:
So you are going to call out a bigoted racist with a sexist remark? Not cool at all. She may be a bigot and a racist but I do not think she is a "ho"."
gotta agree here, folks. I hate Sarah Palin with an undying, vitriolic sort of hatred, but this "ho" crap got old about 2 minutes after Hillary announced. If there's any Hoin' goin on right now, it's 2008McCain turning tricks for RNC campaign money. That is real prostitution.
/rant.
signed,
feminist - yeah, I said it.
jeremy said...
An ounce of decency from McCain. From Time's Swampland:
Someone dangled a great big piece of low-hanging fruit in front of McCain: "I'm scared to bring up my child in a world where Barack Obama is president."
haha
as soon as the freeps get wind of the upcoming Real Joe Effect™ there will be massive virtual suicide.
Ashley said...
to MONTREAL:
I want to know too! We need to see some polling numbers out of SC! If NC and GA can go blue, why not our little enclave of secessionism?
Yes we need new data from SC. This election is so unique, the entire atlantic coast could be blue, altough i do think it's long shot. Are you from SC? If so what is your feeling of what's going on down there.
NC voter-
Thank you for reading the New Republic comments and sharing them. I would but I have a severe "stupid" allergy and I don't want my face to swell up from reading them directly.
I'd love to see some more West Virginia polls. Especially after that Obama +8 yesterday, it seems to be much more of a battleground state than, say, Vermont.
By the way, it seems Mississippi's and Arkansas' win percentages on the left side of the screen add up to 101%. How is this possible?
Fascinating direction this is turning. There are so many polls, they can't ALL be wrong. It turns out that the October surprise was the Bush administration allowing Lehman Bros. to fail. And also McCain foolishly standing up Letterman, among other bone-headed mistakes.
Obama was always good, but he looks great when you see through the hype and realize the republicans have been so weak all along.
Matt-
SC is like GA, if the black vote turns out and is counted (two ifs) the SC could go blue.
Palin was at a private fund raiser here in Cleveland. As she entered the hotel, the crowd around her was pretty angry--at her.
She looked pretty subdued later when she went to a far west suburb to open a group home. She looked pretty darned beaten down. I liked it
AZ and TX are going blue before SC idoes
Re: The Great Blue Road Trip-- A Variation
If NV goes blue, I'm pretty sure I could make it
from San Diego to Portland (ME) without having
to *pee* in a red state. I might have to lay off
the coffee and beer in a few spots!
Hello 538 crowd. This is my first post. I have been checking out the site for a couple of weeks and have enjoyed it greatly. I know many of you are extremely erudite so here is my question--Which of these states should the Obama campaign concentrate their time and energy now-NC,IN,VA,CO,NV,FL or OH? Or are there other spots he and Biden should hit? I am assuming WI,IA,MN and MI are safe.
Palin is looking tired and old. It happens, even to idiotic MILFs.
Another Indiana poll that's way, way redder than the model predicts it to be? Iirc Seltzer is the only pollster who's ever projected an Obama win there. Internals bedamned, it just seems to be failing to fit the model even when you've got other states down pat. I'd love to believe it's a tossup, but poll after poll is going for McCain.
Thanks, Robert. It's good to hear that the more rational McCain supporters understand that this is not what they signed on for. Keep up the good work opening eyes and minds!!
Swillhound,
That is like 6 hours in Utah!
You'd at least have to stop and buy gas.
And all this in spite of an all out sh*t stream coming from Fox about Ayers, Wright, Acorn, Frank, Dodd, Terrorist, etc... Looks like the right wing is bitter, indeed. Enjoy my campaign posters here:
http://homepage.mac.com/mistahcoughdrop/
MR
AZ would be blue this year if it wasn't McCain on the GOP ticket
I find it hilarious that Palin is mocking Obama for not knowing about Ayers' past.
What are the chances SHE knew about him before she was briefed by a staffer a couple weeks ago?
I don't get why so many people are in love with the fact that she is a "joe six pack hockey mom." I don't want my President/VP to be someone like me. I want them to be a hell of a lot smarter. I want them to have good judgment and understand the problems we face. I could care less who the better beer buddy is...but for the record I'd still choose Obama.
Wombat, welcome.
The easy answer is to go to FL and VA and make sure they are solid, the fun answer is to go to WV and IN and change the world.
Better quality of Daily Show/Fox News clip
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/10/jon-stewart-rips-fox-news_n_133659.html
IN does not fit the model as it is redder than the same demographic states around it. That said, IN is the perfect state for a reverse Bradley effect.
wombat,
I am a big fan of trying to flip OH and FL. Big rewards for the effort.
Personally I like it when Obama goes to CO, but there are only 9 votes, and I am thinking he's gonna get them anyways.
To try and steer this back toward statistics, a question for those who would know better than me.
As time goes on and these state/national polls continue to show an Obama lead, how likely is it that these new supporters will "harden" in their opinions? I mean, they must have been at least somewhat undecided to switch sides in the first place...but is this a case where the longer time goes on the less likely they will be to switch back?
The reason, of course, is that even if there is an "October surprise" in the works, if these new Obama supporters have had a month or more to firm up their opinions, they may not be as open to going back.
MONTREAL:
I'm from SC, but I'm currently out of state -- my whole family is there, though. I'm guessing that it'll go Red, but it could be a lot closer than people will give it credit for. I remember being thrilled last election when, for a little while at least, the MSM was calling SC too close to call. There are some variables, like the super conservative "democrat" running for Senate, that could mix it up. But I've seen it be red too many times to think it'll go any other way. Plus, there is a large contingent of the Obama is a muslim, gun-hating, terrorist-loving, most liberal senator ever people.
"By the way, it seems Mississippi's and Arkansas' win percentages on the left side of the screen add up to 101%. How is this possible?"
___________________________________
If AR went McCain 84.5% of the time (round up to 85%)and Obama 15.5% of the time (round up to 16%) the actual simulation percentage (100%) is correct but rounding makes it 101%.
MS would be 89.5% and 10.5%.
Make sense. I am not the most math oriented person so I am probably not great at explaining it.
Great news, and excellent site, Nate.
I have a question about the national tracking polls: to what do you attribute the extremely low variance of the polls in this last Obama upswing? It seems like the day-to-day correlation is much greater than previously. Is it just that there are so many polls happening now and so the estimates are that much tighter?
fred: I believe that "News from Ohio" was quoting a McCain spokesmodel, not expressing personal opinion (until the end of the message, that is!)
rich merritt said...
"The 'bradley affect' is now at least 7%."
As has been explained here befor by a number of people
Bradley effect = Obama lead % + 3%
As a South Carolina native there's nothing I'd like than to see my old state return to blue (which it was until 1948). But it will never happen. Too many fundamentalists and the state government is controlled by Bob Jones University.
I've been reading this site since June. Back then you were all talking about Ohio and Florida and the so called Western Strategy. Now, we are talking about Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia and so on turning blue. I just can't quite believe it. It's truly a historic election.
Wombat-
I would say VA and CO. I think they were trending for him even when McCain was in his convention bounce period. I think they flip before FLA or OH and with Kerry+IA+NM either puts him over 270.
Schief,
There was a post about this like a week ago. Generally people who state an opinion, even leaners, do not change their minds w/i 30 days. Before that they are making up their minds, but once they decide it is tough to flip them. Past elections show very little movement this late in the game.
Yes jen it really is a cesspool over there. They're pretty much drowned in their own koolaid.
These are the kinds of people that still believe Obama is a muslim/terrorist/stalin that would turn the US into the USSR.
They really are the uneducated, religious fundamentalist, gun-toting whackjob scum of society. I really hope they make good on their threat to "secede". The country would be a far better place without them.
If god forbid, there is an attack on Obama, it will be someone with the Freeptard mentality.
As always, there is concern over the Bradley effect, as well as the GOP history of trying to suppress the vote and steal the election. However, I am cautiously optimistic.
The Palin-McCain campaign is so bankrupt of moral decency that I feel the need for a shower after listening to them.
"She looked pretty darned beaten down. I liked it."
And I'd like to see pictures of that. Any chance?
Posted in previous post before I got run over, and had to read all of these before commenting =). I have gotten most of my news today from Real Joe, and not sure if that was a good thing since it means I just hit refresh on this site all day....
Who was going to the hockey game to let us know how it really turned out?
Ashley thanks for your input. I'm out, the Canadiens season opening against Buffalo starts in 10 min. I hope the Flyers fans welcome Palin like she should be. If they do, I may feel a little better about last spring.
Wasn't the Troopergate report supposed to be released today?
May be on one of the politico blogs. I am assuming it started around 7 PM Eastern time?
Damn that Idaho and that little pokey of land up to Canada. It blocks the cross-country blue ride from WA to NY, assuming MT is ready to fall next.
Maybe O can flip Idaho?
> Remember, any world in which McCain has a chance to win on Election Day is a world that looks very different from this one...
Unless I'm mistaken, according to this website's poling analysis McCain has about a 9% chance of winning even if the election were held today. Not only is 9% a chance, but given the importance of the presidency it's not even that small of a chance. Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly?
This is Great News!!!!! FOR TINA FEY!!!!!
(She famously said she didn't want to be stuck parodying Sarah Palin for the next four years.)
Has anyone looked at
www.7-election.com ?
I just heard about it. When you go to 7-eleven, you can buy your coffee in a blue cup or red cup. The site has the results.
I know it is very unscientific, BUT, they were pretty much on the money in 2000 and 2004.
The Alaska legislature committee is still deliberating
www.adn.com
Troopergate status is update on here every half hour or so
http://community.adn.com/adn/node/132527
Christopher BUCKLEY is supporting Obama, per National Review:
Buckley, who praised McCain in a New York Times Op-Ed earlier this year and defended the Arizona senator's conservative credentials against wary talk-radio hosts, said McCain is no longer the “real” and “unconventional” man he once admired.
Yuppers. Even the real conservatives hate the Schmict McCain BS. Could this be the end of the Reagan coalition, yes, but ONLY if it is a landslide. Ground game. Run the ground game.
I am beginning to feel guilty and weird that we are kicking the Repubs asses. It makes my stomach feel wrong.
fred said...
Wombat, welcome.
The easy answer is to go to FL and VA and make sure they are solid, the fun answer is to go to WV and IN and change the world.
October 10, 2008 6:08 PM
Great statement Fred! Change the world! Yes! I want to see Obama win WV and IN to make a statement!
Here's the link to local Cleveland news about the Palin visit (although the site's having a hard time handling the hits)
http://www.wkyc.com/news/politics_govt/politics_article.aspx?storyid=98369&catid=132
Nonetheless, if you look at the picture, you can note the lack of crazed fever in her eyes. Also note that they don't show the crowd around the hotel---it's because there was a huge anti-McCain rally going on. She just bolts right into the hotel.
Also, the large checks written by Democrats were for the GROUP HOME, not the campaign!!!
Troy said...
Has anyone looked at
www.7-election.com ?
They have TX and AZ blue, now that would be a reslut for W and McShame!
Jen said...
Stupid Idaho, ruining things for everyone.
Isn't it up there with Wyoming as one of the reddest of the red?
____________________________________
Being from this bulwark of backwards thinking I can tell you that it is only surpassed by Utah :(
I liked the www.7-election.com, cute to see Kansas blue =) any word on who was gonna post on that hockey game tonight in PA (I believe it was)?
They (not McCain, "they") are sending Palin to WV since they figure they can get better lynch-mob rally video there than in some other states.
McCain, on the other hand, appears to have freed his soul from whatever bamboo cage "they" put it in, and is speaking the way his Daddy taught him, with respect toward his fellow Senator. One can but conclude that McCain doesn't want the stain of a lynch mob killing Bill Ayers on his conscience.
Unless I'm mistaken, according to this website's poling analysis McCain has about a 9% chance of winning even if the election were held today. Not only is 9% a chance, but given the importance of the presidency it's not even that small of a chance. Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly?
No, as I understand it it's an estimated 9.1% chance (assuming Nate's model works and has sucessfully removed all systematic biases), based on historical models of how much poll numbers have historically changed in the last few weeks of the election, that McCain will win on Nov 4th.
Of that 9.1%, I suspect most of it corresponds to a gradually shrinking chance that McCain, luck, or some McCain sympathizer like Osama bin Laden (see previous thread) will manage to pull off an October surprise big enough to swing the election his way in in a large number of battleground states (and probably nationally) in the remaining few weeks. It would take a swing larger than anyone's managed in recent history, but not a completely and rediculaously unprecedented one. And it would likely need to be very well timed, as I doubt he could keep it up for long.
wesley you have to remember nate's model assumes "regression towards the mean", or if I am correct, tightening of the polls as we approach election day.
If Obama keeps these margins say, on NOV 1st, the "win %" would probably be 99+
This election needs to be a real landslide to silence the angry mobs who feel that they are the "silent majority", or as PeteKent would say, "the hidden vote". At the current pace should pick up 380 EV at least though, and I can imagine Georgia, and Mississippi going blue, too.
I am proud to see the American people focusing on the issues in this time of world economic crisis.
RCP Throws in the Towel
When will Fox News, Karl Rove, and Pollmeister Ras say "Uncle."
I'm sorry... I share you enthusiasm and excitement and I know the electoral map is important, but you people referring to "pesky red states" and badmouthing McCain and Palin and their supporters...
Just...
Stop it, OK? It's bullshit. It's divisive, it's destructive and it's bullshit.
That is not the country I want to live in. That is not the country I want my nieces raised in.
"Now even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us -- the spin masters, the negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of "anything goes." Well, I say to them tonight, there is not a liberal America and a conservative America -- there is the United States of America. There is not a Black America and a White America and Latino America and Asian America -- there’s the United States of America.
The pundits, the pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats. But I’ve got news for them, too. We worship an "awesome God" in the Blue States, and we don’t like federal agents poking around in our libraries in the Red States. We coach Little League in the Blue States and yes, we’ve got some gay friends in the Red States. There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and there are patriots who supported the war in Iraq. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America."
The freepers need a state, lets send them all to ID and let them secede.
The true right wing nutballs are not talking leaving the country if Obama, but seccession. ID or AK, let them have them.
Well, once we have a 270 EV majority of states that are going to Obama at a 100% chance, we will see the win percentage at 100%. Osama bin Laden or whatever is not something the numbers factor in.
After days of watching in silence, McCain calms the crowd at a Minnesota town meeting.
“I want everyone to be respectful. And let’s make sure we are, because that’s the way politics is done in America.”
Tells one supporter who says he’s scared of an Obama presidency: “I have to tell you, he is a decent person, a person that you do not have to be scared [of] as president of the United States.”
After a woman calls Obama “an Arab terrorist” McCain interrupts to say: “No, ma’am. He is a decent family man with whom I happen to have some disagreements.”
good grief, gerbie. You had me raciny to see what nutty site is predicting an Obama win in Texas.
On pollster.com there is currently a link on that scrolling thing on the right side that goes to a new RNC webiste detailing Barack's quotes about his work with ACORN and apparently describing Barack's legal work for ACORN in Chicago.
The fightthesmears website is lying on the alleged lack of Barack ACORN connections.
In Marion County, IN (home of Indy) there is now 105% voter registration thanks to ACORN. For every 100 adult humans there, there are now 105 "registered voters."
ACORN is the Democratic answer to the GOP's paperless diebold machines.
McCain trying to cool down
Re: the Buckley endorsement of Obama,
It's also telling that he feared publishing his opinion on more mainstream sites because of the lunatic backlash others have received--and that he so explicitly notes it.
Conservatives, in the true sense of the word, like Buckley and Andrew Sullivan are sorely missed. Conflicting opinions are great at examining the different sides of a problem (can anyone say "diversity"?) but the neocons have done their best to kill intelligent opposition.
Doctor Pion said...
McCain, on the other hand, appears to have freed his soul from whatever bamboo cage "they" put it in, and is speaking the way his Daddy taught him, with respect toward his fellow Senator. One can but conclude that McCain doesn't want the stain of a lynch mob killing Bill Ayers on his conscience.
I'm afraid that's not actually the case. The two of them are playing good cop, bad cop. Thay feel that's their last resort.
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