Item:
(WASHINGTON) — Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens has been convicted of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor.The election being thrown into "disarray" is a polite way to put it. Obviously, we'll want to get Ivan Moore or Rasmussen out into the field ASAP. But it's hard to imagine Stevens having more than a snowball's chance in hell of hanging onto his seat. In some ways, the 12 jurors in Washington may have been the first voters of the 2008 election.
The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate financial documents.
The verdict throws the upcoming election into disarray. Stevens is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Mark Begich and must now either drop out or continue campaigning as a convicted felon.
361 comments
Poor Hulk. His reelection chances have gone down the... tubes.
oh snaps! this can give the Democrats another seat in the Senate just like that! things look terrificly grim for the Republicans--good!
Senator Stevens, Here's a video for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8Tiz6INF7I
HIT THE ROAD, JACK!
so just like the SCOTUS were the last voters in 2000???
e.
It would be great to get to 60 withOUT Lieberman.
I hope that Anchorage has the class to rename the airport now.
"Thrown into disarray...."???????
Kinda like:
"TITANIC reports minor scrape with ice......"
WHAT...Mavericks to the rescue??? Don't think so!
60 without lieberman would require 2 of: KY, MS, GA. Tough to do, but it COULD happen.
is there any obvious second stringer?
Somebody should come up with a term for these unexpected, surprising events that happen late in the election cycle, like say in October, that have potential to influence the outcomes of the various races...
This one is still just #59.
The Dems need MS, GA or KY to be #60
That is a stunning turn of events.
So, when do we get pics of Palin cursing on youtube? ;-)
Call time for Begich will be fun tonight!
glad too see corrupt politicians get what they deserve.
Hitchens doing his thing against Palin
Brutal fun.
http://slate.com/id/2203120
Astounding.
Thank you for this, GOP Officials.
We couldn't win this election without you :)
BTW.. as a "real Virginian" born in "Fake Virginia," (Richmonder born in Fairfax), I was not very offended by the comment.
Just another perspective for you guys. It was NOT politically correct, and I laughed hysterically when I heard it knowing that this would blow up in the media.. but her point is correct.. there are two fundamentally different atmospheres in my state. I love both, but if you meet someone from Fairfax and ask them where they are from, they will either say "D.C.", "Northern Virgina" or "NoVa" depending on how familiar you are with the area. Most likely, DC. They consider us "real Virginians" Southern and identify much more with the DC/Maryland/Delware are.
Knock that AK on the Senate Scorecard from "Tilts Dem" to "Safe Dem"...?
Does anyone know what the procedure is if Stevens continues running and is re-elected? I believe the Senate will most likely call for his expulsion, but what happens to the seat then? Does the Governor of his state (i.e. Palin) appoint someone? An any civic-savvy fivethirtyeighters out there clue us in?
You men to say your model does not take in to account jury verdicts? And I thought it was sophisticated ;)
Wonder if Stevens wanted the speedy trial for his election hopes, or his hopes for a pardon from Bush? Probably both...
Sorry, off topic - but for anyone wanting to compare their taxes under McCain versus under Obama ....
http://www.electiontaxes.com/
counc
What are the possible spill-over effects? Can Stevens' guilty verdict effect the MN senate race?
Steven's sentencing induced illness/frail health/elderly groveling begins NOW!
What if republicans put in Dave Cuddy, who stevens beat by 35% in the republican primary... is that possible? could he win, just by being a "new face?"
Why is Sarah Palin pallin' around with a convicted felon?
P.S. the Word Verification for this post was 'ovencat'. That's just wrong.
link.
suffolk
obama +5
leads 60-40 in early votes cast.
Great! Another deceitful liar bagged and put out of public service. The deceitful McCain and Palin will be a vapor in the past in 8 days! Amazing how Palin and McCain can appeal to the "Christian" right. After seeing these two campaign I now believe the "Christian" right Republicans rewrote their bibles. Hate and deceit is their show of works.
If Obama's smart, he'll steer clear of directly addressing this and let the GOP continue to dig its own grave.
THATS WHAT YOU GET FOR DRINKING ON A BONER IN AN AIRPORT! YAAHHHHHHH! HE BETTER BRUSH HIS TEETH A WHOLE BUNCH BEFORE HITTING THE TRAIL AND WINNING HIS SEAT BACK.
CCCCCCCCCCCOOOOOOOODDDDDDDDEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Sorry to be contrary, but haven't millions of people already voted? Claiming that the 12 jurors were the first voters of the election seem a tad inaccurate.
...And if Bush does pardon him, what would that do to Palin's chances of being reelected in 2010? Even so, I (and I can't believe I'm saying this) hope Bush does the right thing and sends him down.
My word verification is 'Mactick'. Hmm.
ABC tracking 52 O 45 M
same as yesterday
My word verfication just now:
heropres
Google is in the tank for Obama.
Mammoth-wrong Republican Senator lol
anyone else enjoying clicking on the McCain links that include lies? I enjoy costing their campaign a little more money for a clicking on a lie.
OHHHHHHH< SORRY HE WASN"T THE ONE ,CAUGHT,DRINKING PENUS NECT> DONATE YER HOME AND DON"T GO INTO THE RESTROOMS IN AIRPORTS...
WAS THIS GUY THE HUSBAND ON BEWITCHED?
Does this mean they take the name from the Anchorage airport and slap it on the State Pen?
Ah yes. This is a good thing to take up the news cycle for a little while. Ted Stevens today and tomorrow. Obama's television special Wednesday and Thursday... that leaves McCain Friday to try and get some traction?
Someone ought to ask the governor of that state for whom she is voting.
Palin: the 'TED STEVENS' Republican
It is funny watching the GOP move in different directions.
First, the Senate and House Republicans are running from Bush AND McCain as fast as they can. Conservative writer David Frum had argued that the GOP should try to salvage what it can in term of Congressional seats, while John McCain is running on a "divided government we stand" mantra.
Secondly,the mass exodus of that dying breed, intellectual Republican, to the emergency electoral exit has been well documented. One has to wonder what sort of (non)viable GOP party will exist after the election that is comprised of Joe the Plumber wannbes, and hockey mom wannabes, and other assorted political flat earthers.
Given the division of the GOP, I must point out that Sarah Palin will turn out to be the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party in a long time since she unites Democrats and divides Republicans.
A snowball's chance in ALASKA! (Who knows about the election...)
I think the scenario whereby Stevens actually gets re-elected, while possible, is very unlikely. He was already running behind Begevich even before the verdict. The possibility of Bush pardoning the Senator is, I believe, quite likely. Bush knows he's already really unpopular so why not. Stevens' loss, if it happens, won't affect the 60 seat target since the Democrats were counting on that one turning over already. Getting 60 seems to me to be extremely unlikely, especially in MS and KY.
john, I am constantly clicking on McCain ads. I just click on them and then close the window a few seconds later without looking at it.
I like to do think I'm doing my part to run them dry.
All Obama has to do is put in a good word for Begich, like "He'd be a great addition to the Senate."
NO!
YES!! Finally that corrupt motherf**ker might be replaced! This man is the biggest enemy to the internet's well-being and generally fights against the people and our freedoms. He is completely in the corporate pockets.
I have always hated this man, sure he's helped his constituents by stealing money from the American people (bridge to nowhere anyone?), but he is as corrupt as they come. He also sounds about as stupid as Palin when he opens his mouth.
Rasmussen California.
Obama 61
McCain 34
Begich will still have a problem hitting 50.1% in that state.
The state GOP in Alaska is not the Sarah Palin wing of the Alaska GOP. It is still the Stevens/Murkowski wing of the Alaska GOP and only a tiny bit weaker than they were a couple of hours ago.
2010 will be an interesting year for Alaskans.
I would love to see an updated Senate Projection, now giving Begich some arbitrary % like 90% instead of 53%, where he currently stands. I know Nate doesn't get a chance to update the senate stuff too frequently, but obviously putting a toss-up into a lock should up our 60-senator chances from 30% to probably 35% or 40%...
ABC Tracker:
O: 52
M: 45
unchanged from Sunday
next in the Deft seat: Sarah Palin
Clean Up Alaska!
ABC Wash Post
O-52
M-45
(Unchanged)
This tracker is starting to seem pretty good to me, very stable, has shown some reasonable tightening.
From the AP:
The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/fronts/HOME?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME
yeah, feeling ancies
This doesn't really answer the question, but has some really interesting background into the whole topic of "Senators gone bad"
http://www.adn.com/politics/story/564658.html
Diminishes the possibility we'd see Palin in the Senate as Ted's replacement.
Just another perspective for you guys. It was NOT politically correct, and I laughed hysterically when I heard it knowing that this would blow up in the media.. but her point is correct.. there are two fundamentally different atmospheres in my state. I love both, but if you meet someone from Fairfax and ask them where they are from, they will either say "D.C.", "Northern Virgina" or "NoVa" depending on how familiar you are with the area. Most likely, DC. They consider us "real Virginians" Southern and identify much more with the DC/Maryland/Delware are.
Oh, bull. We don't "identify with" DC/Maryland/Delaware any more than you identify with North Carolina. I've lived my whole life in Virginia, and if I tell people I'm from Northern Virginia, it's to give them a good idea of where I live, not to pretend I'm not from Virginia any more than you'd be pretending you're not from Virginia if you said "Richmond."
Yes, there are divisions in the state, but that doesn't make us any less proud Virginians than downstate people are.
Ted Stevens....born in my home state, Indiana. How proud we all are.
Ted Stevens...a man who found Indiana in the 1950s TOO liberal and dashed to Alaska.
Wow...
WELL
ASSMOLE
IF HIS CHIN DOESN"T HURT NOW IT SHALL...
HE WILL NEVER BE IRREGULAR AGAIN AND TEDDY
WILL TOUCH HIS EVERY THREE HOURS!
OR SO
Well it is Alaska.. I bet Stevens could still garner 40% if the election was held today.
Alaska, hmmmm. Something fishy about that place and the pols that come from there..
I can't imagine a Bush pardon would have any (positive) effect on the race, or on the chances of the Senate expelling Stevens for his conviction if he were elected.
prairiecomm said...
From the AP:
The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.
So much for the October Suprise, I guess. I wonder how much of that 3.3% was based on a bunch like this succeeding?
So what's up in Alaska? Stevens has been convicted and Palin's got Troopergate.
Is Alaska the Real America? Because, with the corruption there, it's beginning to seem more like the Real Myanmar or Real Haiti.
off topic, sorry, and observing this from outside I don't want to sound arrogant but although it is a great thing that Obama will probably win, I think it is still incredibly sad that 44-48% of American voters will give their vote to McCain and Palin in spite of everything that happened and everything that has been said and done by them and their campaign. And I'm talking about both the mere ignorance (Palin on science, institutions, politics, dinosaurs ;-) and almost everything else) and the abject hate mongering.
http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0046/McCain-Obama_10_26_08.pdf
Karl Rove with 306 electoral votes for Obama. It's funny how Rove has any blue state with a - and any red state with a +
So what are the chances of a Bush pardon for Stevens?
good point samule. The 44% who vote Republican -> their motto "Stupid is as Stupid Does"
The C.Montgomery Burns of Alaska is going to the Slammer.
Time to update the senatorial probability chart, perhaps?
You would THINK that Stevens' conviction would cost him the election, but probably a lot of AK Republicans will rationalize it as a "vendetta" against their guy and vote for him anyway.
He'll lose now for sure though, I would think. But, there's no accounting for stupidity and who knows? There might even be a "sympathy vote."
If I were Stevens I'd put out an ad quickly playing on public sympathy as a "poor old guy railroaded into jail." Some long shots of Stevens looking sad, etc.
Hell, in Alaska it might just work! Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of Alaska, after all they LOVE Sarah Palin! What more proof that they're morons is needed?
Blogger x0lani said...
So what's up in Alaska? Stevens has been convicted and Palin's got Troopergate.
Is Alaska the Real America? Because, with the corruption there, it's beginning to seem more like the Real Myanmar or Real Haiti.
---
LOL, they'll say that they found a birth certificate that proves that Stevens was born in Chicago
Well, one of McCain's recent tactics has been to argue that with the Dems likely to pick up a bunch of seats in Congress, you need a Repub in the White House as a counterweight. So, with one of the toss-up Senate races now likely to turn strongly in the Democrat's favor, this is GREAT NEWS!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!
This is great news!...FOR MCCAIN!
Oh, wait, that's what's-his-name's line.
glad too see corrupt politicians get what they deserve.
hmmm -wasn't there something about palin's house being built ...
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/11/111018/34/47/627460
don't know how much water that holds ...
but a resounding
thumank
is possible
Will this effect the presidential race any more than the Dem congressman from Florida who recently cheated on his wife with his secretary?
I'm actually thinking it might be a distraction from Obama's "closing arguments". Not that it threatens his win chances, but in the big picture Steven's conviction might be pretty inconsequential to the presidential election. As for Palin? Alaska corruption is news to no one. I don't think it sticks to her any more than her own scandals.
Oh wow! This is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!! Now PA is just within reach!
check this out. As some noted before you can't vote as a felon in some states but it seem you can be a Senator. There is poetry in that.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/stevens_trial;_ylt=AvTx9tgmMtijBkFVHBPzgYis0NUE
it says, "Despite being a convicted felon, he is not required to drop out of the race or resign from the Senate. If he wins re-election, he can continue to hold his seat because there is no rule barring felons from serving in Congress."
With the GOP looking more and more set to fracture as the possibility of electoral defeat looms, the cannibals' knives are out. Consider this quote, via Yglesias:
Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy".
He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"
Hold it now. They're serious about going all in with the Palin loyalty test? Uhm...apparently so! Nuzzo adds:
He said: "Win or lose, there is a ready made conservative candidate waiting in the wings. Sarah Palin is not the new Iain Duncan Smith, she is the new Ronald Reagan."
Yowee. So, for the sake of Sarah Palin -- who many conservatives correctly assessed as the candidate-born-yesterday -- a whole slew of Republicans-in-good-standing are going to be thrown under the bus? That's a serious civil war, or rather, a war betwixt the Serious and the Un-Serious. Keep in mind that Palin's critics are not marginal figures in the conservative movement. We're talking the aforementioned Brooks and Noonan and Frum, and we're adding Christopher Buckley, George Will, Kathleen Parker, Colin Powell, Charles Krauthammer, Matthew Dowd, and for the sake of argument, we'll throw in Chuck Hagel, Andrew Sullivan, and Christopher Hitchens, even though I hesitate to pin any of them to any sort of doctrinaire conservative group.
This is, indeed, a "bloodbath," and for what? A distinctly semi-pro Alaskan governor who's more or less made the charisma-free Tim Pawlenty look like What Could Have Been?
Additionally, this sort of line-in-the-sand drawing avoids another obvious truth -- come 2012, someone besides Palin is going to vie for the GOP nomination. Someone like, say, Mitt Romney, who famously earned the backing of the National Review, which called him a "full-spectrum conservative." What happens to Romney, now that he's on the wrong side of the Palin line? Because that's where he is:
Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin's bid for the White House, have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election. "Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012," says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. "The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He's in charge on November 5th."
[...]
Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a "diva" and was going off message intentionally. The former and current Romney supporters further are pushing Romney supporters for key Republican jobs, including head of the Republican National Committee.
If I read this right, the GOP is set splinter into a trio of factions: the Palin-philes, the Romney remainders, and those excommunicated from the movement for daring to make a lick of sense at one point. Fitting isn't it, that a McCain loss might precipitate his party coming to resemble the factionalism of the Iraqi misadventure they all cooked up in the first place. Maybe Joe Biden can help them reach some sort of triple-partition solution!
If somehow Stevens still won and then resigned/was expelled, Alaska would have a special election to replace him.
That became the law after former Gov Murkowski appointed his daughter to the Senate when he became governor.
Stevens prospects to win relection has plumeted to 5% on Intrade. Maybe I don't know Alaska, but I think Stevens is done fore sure. I could easily see Begich getting 60% of the vote easily. And Stevens will drag down Young with him, though I expect Young to fare a little better on election day.
Why don't the Repubs run a campaign to elect him anyway and then their vaunted Republican Governor and appoint a replacement when he has to resign.
CNN reports that the McCain campaign was the source for the Ashley Todd story.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-WEN9x6cpY
Rove's map actually looks pretty much on target to me.
Assuming (and this is a big assumption) there's no major movement between now and the election and there's no major vote suppression/vote thievery - the real question is how many of those tossup states will Obama win? He appears to have the blue states on Rove's map pretty much in his pocket and that's 306 EV - easily enough to become President.
Actually I'd say Ohio could still go McCain's way. It's the 286 (including Colorado & VA) that I feel really confident about.
Obama Rally in Pittsburgh
Link
Matt said...
Will this effect the presidential race any more than the Dem congressman from Florida who recently cheated on his wife with his secretary?
The Florida story barely made national news. Ted Stevens likely is the lead story on the networks tonight.
Stevens is a big deal. 98% of the public couldn't explain that he really is not joined at the hip with Palin, and will fairly or not make a connection.
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) just now dumped all over Stevens, saying he should have been convicted.
I wonder what effect Stevens' conviction will have on McCain?
Negatives:
1. Palin is from Alaska and supported Ted Stevens for some time, although she refused to say whether she supported him now that he'd been indicted.
2. It doesn't exactly help the party image to have another senior Republican convicted of corruption charges.
3. It doesn't help McCain's campaign to have the media talking about a corrupt Republican senator instead of focusing on whatever talking points they're desperately throwing at the board today.
4. It forces McCain onto the defensive, forcing him to issue statements saying "it's the kind of corruption we're against!" etc. Uncomfortable to have to disown a member of your own party just before the election.
5. It distracts from McCain's argument that Obama's a socialist. All the media will be focused on this today and partly tomorrow. It will be a lead story.
6. It reminds voters of Troopergate and Palin's own ethics investigation in Alaska and makes people think that everybody up there in Alaska is on the take. Which they are!
7. Anytime McCain is talking about a corruption scandal, there's a chance somebody is going to bring up the Keating 5. Not good.
Positives for McCain:
1. Palin & McCain aren't directly tied to this scandal. They can dismiss it without having to defend Stevens.
2. Palin is claiming to have opposed Stevens' "bridge to nowhere" although this has been widely discredited in the media (they kept the money) she still blathers on about it! This gives her another chance.
3. McCain can attack Stevens and plausibly claim he's "taking on his own party" over corruption.
4. McCain can use media focus on this as an example of "media bias" against his campaign.
Bottom Line: There's just no way this is a net positive for McCain at a time when he desperately needs to focus all attention on his attacks on Obama.
It just sucks some of the oxygen out of the room and makes things more difficult.
There is a joke here somewhere about a series of tubes and dropping the soap in the shower in prison...
1. The chances of Bush pardoning Stevens are 0%. Even if there were a pardon, by accepting it Stevens would have to admit guilt. His Senate career is over.
2. This and the skinhead assasination plot will drive the news for the next couple of days. Bye bye to the bullsh!t Conservtatroll spin on BHO's statement that people who wanted to change the system and make it more fair for them economically would have to use the political system rather than the courts to do so. (Doh.)
3. This is going to disgust more indies, undies and leaners. The Rethuglicans have no one to blame but themselves and John Sidney. And Sarah Palin. The gift who just keeps giving to America.
Obama in Pittsburgh:
http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live_asx.html?stream=stream3
Early voting is gay.
So is wealth redistribution.
Get your hands of my earned money, you liberal greedy whores!
Re Michael Carter's post about the need for a term describing a sudden and dramatic event that reshapes an election campaign in an instant: out here we have one. We call it "Gettin' hit by a brick from the Moon."
I truly believe there will be a "draft Sarah" (for Senate) write in movement. It will take away votes from Stevens but not affect Begich. (It will also fail miserably.)
It will also underscore that the Palin/What'shisname ticket is dead.
"3. It doesn't help McCain's campaign to have the media talking about a corrupt Republican senator instead of focusing on whatever talking points they're desperately throwing at the board today."
LOLOL that's putting it mildly!!!
tick tock tick tock...
You never know, maybe the Republicans of Alaska will do with Stevens what the Irish of Boston did with Mayor Curley in the 1920s, an re-elect him while he's in jail.
Totally off topic, but I just wanted to make a comment on, well, comments. Specifically the "concern trolling" that is going on.
I think the problem may be related to a generational divide between some of the pollsters here. I would suspect that most of the "concern trolls" are younger voters (in my age range), and our political awareness begins only in 2000 (this may be true for some older than me, I only turned 18 in 2004 but I was very aware by 14, probably earlier than most.) As such, we have been exposed only to two, down-to-the-wire nail-biters, and are conditioned to not believe in blowouts and to focus on very small blips in polls. As a result, we often come off as very concerned in our comments about polls and news stories because, frankly, that is all we've known in previous elections.
In contrast, for older generations, there had not been a close election before 2000 since 1976 (297-240, 50.1-48.0) or 1960 (303-219, 49.7-49.6) depending on your definition of close. As a result, the older generation has a tendency to ignore these infinitesimal changes and focus on the big picture, and dismiss the worries of the younger posters as concern trolling. No doubt there is some of that going on, but I also think that there may be some misunderstanding that no, an election is not always close, and yes, our eyes, in seeing these polls, do not deceive.
I may be completely off on this (and this post is already way too long), but I'd like to know if anyone thinks that this is valid. And if so, maybe don't dismiss them as concern trolling, but every once in a while talk us off the ledge.
(For the record, I am CAUTIOUSLY optimistic about Obama's chances.)
Is this the October sur . . . uh surp . . . supreme. No that can't be right. October Halloween?
I can't see a reason for rejoicing in any of this. A long-serving U.S. Senator disdains the judicial system of a government that has allowed him to serve at the highest levels for many decades, thumbing his nose at that system.
He does so in a calculated and cynical way, deciding that he'll expressly risk a little jail time in order to get a new house built on the taxpayer dime and lie about it when asked.
This is a terrible event, and the fact that a probable defeat for him turns into an almost certain defeat doesn't much make up for it.
is there any obvious second stringer?
Sean Parnell, the Lt Gov who narrowly lost the Republican primary for Congress to Young is the obvious choice to replace Stevens. But, it is way too late for Stevens to replaced on the ballot even if he dropped out. His nae stays on the ballot no matter what at this point. He could announce that he will resign and Palin could announce that she'd appoint Parnell if Stevens does win. But, voters will have to vote for Stevens to make that happen.
There is a joke here somewhere about a series of tubes and dropping the soap in the shower in prison...
Ouch!! Get your (genetic) information out of my tubes!!
Once again
the Gov of Alaska can NOT name a replacement. Alaska law requires a special election.
stopthestutter -> Early voting is great. This is supposed to be a democracy you know? Where everyone gets to have their vote counted. That's the idea. Early voting makes it more likely for more people to be able to vote. Unless you are against democracy, it's hard to make a reasonable argument against early voting.
Some others have hit the nail on the head of why this Stevens thing is so bad for McCain - it takes away a day or 2 out of remaining news cycles. It just helps Obama run out the clock.
Incoming Bush pardon in 3, 2, 1...
You guys need to keep up. :) Alaska has to be one of the most corrupt states of the union. Uncle Ted is only one of a number already convicted by the Feds in the last year or so. Still under federal investigation is Congressman Don Young. Palin is purer than the driven snow compared to these guys.
And Nate, there's an awful lot of snow to make a snowball up here. I doubt Stevens will win, (at least I hope not), but I think it will be closer than you might expect.
pwn3d by early voting? interesting way of puting it.
North Carolina just updated their early voter numbers - Looks worse and worse for McPalin lol http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Yes! This makes it harder for Mc to build up a newscircle before Wed, when Obama rallies with Clinton+ the TV-ad.
Also, "currupt Alskan republicans" is not what they wanna hear right now.
See this is why the Palin pick was madness on McCain's part. Never mind that Stevens and Palin aren't that close, but if Palin were not on the ticket, Mccain could run a mile from this.
"hmmm -wasn't there something about palin's house being built ..."
That is interesting you mention that, prairiecomm.
Palin's $523,000 home in Wasilla was built within the same window of time the same contractor who built her house was building the Wasilla Community Center, which reportedly went over budget by $1.3 million.
No title or mortgage was found on file by the county through a lender by national media. When asked where Palin's title and mortgage note for the home could be found, a McCain spokesperson said the Governor and Mr. Palin hold the mortgage and title in private trust for financial reasons.
When pressed further with the question that the title had to be on file with a township or county clerk for taxation, the McCain spokesman said "Alaska law is different. But there is nothing to see here. I will have a copy of the title, mortgage, and promissory note to you by the weekend".
The media member requested the information on September 23. No copy of the title, mortgage, or promissory note has been given to any member of the media since the 9/23 request.
The 2 and 2? The contractor built the home on city funds. The title was filed with the clerk. The title was put in private trust when Palin ran for Governor. There is no mortgage, but they claim it is protected in a private trust.
At the time, Palin was of the Stevens/Murkowski wing of the Alaska GOP. She used them as she went up the ladder and was new enough to abandon them when the flak came at their corruption. But well before they were in trouble, Mayor Palin was in on the game. In her mind, as well as the minds of the Stevens and Murkowskis, they were entitled to the largesse of the people.
Palin: Americans are "not fully satisfied" with GOP
Nightmare scenario:
Ted Stevens resigns from the Senate. Governor Sarah Palin appoints the best qualified Alaskan to take his place: Sarah Palin. The Alaskan Republican Party meets to nominate Palin in place of Stevens. McCain-Palin lose the 2008 election, but Palin takes the Senate seat and McCain has to spend the next four years watching Sarah get all "mavericky" on her own.
As such, we have been exposed only to two, down-to-the-wire nail-biters, and are conditioned to not believe in blowouts and to focus on very small blips in polls. As a result, we often come off as very concerned in our comments about polls and news stories because, frankly, that is all we've known in previous elections.
Interesting theory, but I don't think this is a good excuse for focusing on "very small blips" in polls. Granted, 2000 and 2004 were nail-biters, but overreacting to every small poll movement back in those elections would not have served you well either.
It's not even about focusing on the big picture, it's about understanding the nature of polling and statistical sampling. One cannot extrapolate small movements as indicative of shifts in preferences of the electorate.
"early voting is gay" reminds me of the early voters in my state (NC) who were reportedly heckled and called 'cheaters'.
Anyone care to take a stab at providing insight into this mindset? I really don't get it. How can even the most moronic, small-minded yokel be generically *against voting*? I understand why the GOP wants to suppress it. I don't understand why JoeBob McHick thinks it's 'cheating'.
Real Joe-
Linky to the Palin statement?
Two things to bear in mind. 1 its not guaranteed that Stevens goes to jail. (Article on MSNBC.com specualted he wouldn't have to serve any time), and 2 A convicted felon can still sit in the Senate, so no need to resign.
How Alaskans respond to a convicted felon in an election is up to them, but I wouldn't count Stevens out just yet.
sfergus483 said...
Once again
the Gov of Alaska can NOT name a replacement. Alaska law requires a special election.
And that's because Murkowski replaced himself with his daughter, so they changed the law.
The Alaska GOP is about five minutes from telling the voters that a vote for Stevens is a vote for his replacement.
But I think they actually like the Begich family and the sacrifice they have made for the state of Alaska.
I hope Cokie Roberts calls Begich and offers congrats on Election Night if he wins.
stephen, your nightmare scenario is precisely the one that came into my mind. I hope it just means I've been reading too many wingnuts.
Obama in Pittsburgh two seconds ago when people started booing a McCain statement cite by Obama:
"don't even boooh, just vote!"
That's a good punchline, made everybody cheer
NotYourBlog - great point. I don't get how anyone could be against early voting either. I mean obviously the Republicans will do anything they can to suppress voter turnout and that's why they are against it. But... like you say - how could any American think that early voting is "cheating" ??? That's insane. Every American citizen deserves to have their vote counted. If there are any Anti-Americans - it's those who try to take away the rights of other Americans to vote.
I hope Palin appoints herself. She is GREAT for the dem party. She is a true crazy.
OOPS! Correct, Palin cannot appoint herself. Will she run in the special? I bet she does, if Stevens somehow wins...
Senior Obama aide: campaign was not alerted of alleged plot
All,
I'm a reporter examining the popularity of sites like Nate's and was hoping I could talk to some commenters about why they visit 538 and other similar sites. If anyone can talk tonight, please email me at bernienyt@gmail.com. Thanks...
So what are the chances of a Bush pardon for Stevens?
Stevens is not popular among either the talk radio or Christian radio wings of the Republican party. Assuming Bush cares about his legacy, even if only among his true believers, I don't think pardoning Stevens will be popular. My WAG is no pardon.
I didn't read through all the comments so if this is a duplication I apologize.
Stevens could still be legally elected and serve.
The procedure for forceable removal from the Senate requires 2/3 vote from Senate.
AK requires a special election to fill a vacant Senate seat, the Gov does not appoint a replacement.
50/50 Bush issues a pardon before he leaves office.
I guess a lot of people don't check earlier comments. The governor of Alaska does not appoint a senator.
Charlie Cook on Hardball to Chris Matthews right now:
There is a better chance that you'd root against the Phillies in the World Series than that McCain will win.
Bush's legacy? Do you really think he cares about that at this stage???
I think the Senate would have no problem mustering the 55+ Dems and enough Repubs to expel Stevens. The GOPers would be falling over backwards to show they were tough on corruption.
I think stutter made a mistake in his recent post: Get your hands of my earned money, you liberal greedy whores!
I think he meant to say "Get your handfuls of my earned money..."
Sure, I'll take some.
troy, he hasn't got any.
Only 10 minutes until Rasmussen polling update. This is one of the highlights of my week (yes, sad). I don't know what I'll do with myself after the election is over...work?
the affadavit regarding the plot against obama:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/7566304/USA-v-Cowart-et-al-Affadavit-of-Brian-A-Weaks
@sherwick,
:( too bad for us
Palin is a dangerous combination: good looking, completely daft, and a nut in the highest order.
There is always an audience for that combination. Usually it is superficial males on their way toward their first divorce. They meet them when they are hot, then it takes a few years for the guy to learn they are a nut, then they get the divorce.
My brother had one of those. He filed for divorce in 361 days.
WOW. Obama's "Closing Argument" speech is ridiculously good.
LIVE
stutter is a 15 yo paid $5 an hour by the GOP and is posting from his mom's basement.
The Obama campaign says they had not been informed about this plot.
Not sure what the niceties are here, but one would think they'd be given a head's up and not have to hear about it from a reporter.
Is Obama's Canton speech from this morning online anywhere?
Rasmussen out in a few, i'll pass em along as soon as I get em
I'm a reporter examining the popularity of sites like Nate's and was hoping I could talk to some commenters about why they visit 538 and other similar sites
It's a voice of sanity. Meta analysis of the polls, weighted by their probable validity. To the point, up to date, along with coverage of the ground game of both parties covered by no one else.
myEAW !!
Awesome thinking here: because we don't care, we're winning!!!!
From NRO:
If there is an enthusiasm gap between the candidates—if, that is, the supporters of one candidate are much more enthusiastic about their choice than supporters of a second candidate are about theirs—it would seem to follow that polls would understate the level of support for the second candidate. Specifically, if unenthusiastic supporters are less likely to take part in polls or less likely to express their support for the candidate to whom they’re leaning, I don’t see how the polls could accurately capture their voting intentions. (I invite polling experts to correct me.)
For what it’s worth, in 1996, when there was an enthusiasm gap between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll for Oct. 27-28 gave Clinton a 16-point margin (51%-35%), and the final poll gave him a 13-point margin. Clinton’s actual margin of victory was only 8-1/2 points. So, especially given the much larger enthusiasm gap this year, perhaps there’s reason to hope that the polls contain an even larger overstatement of Barack Obama’s support—in which case John McCain may be ahead. (Yes, yes, I admit that this is wishful thinking.)
RASMUSSEN
Ohio
O-49
M-45
Developing....
REMEMBER...
The internet is not something you just dump something on, it's not a big truck... it's, it's, it's series of tubes.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=f99PcP0aFNE
TY antmatic!
Ras CO 10/26 (10/20)
Obama 50 (51) - McCain 46 (46)
Rasmussen
Florida
O-51
M-47
Developing...
Antmatic said...
RASMUSSEN
Ohio
O-49
M-45
Nice!
Don't like the CO but I'll take the other two so far. :)
Ras MO 10/26 (10/19)
Obama 48 (49) - McCain 47 (44)
Woohoo on all the Rass polls.
Antmatic said...
Rasmussen
Florida
O-51
M-47
Developing...
NICER!!!
Rasmussen
Missouri
O-49
M-48
Developing...
Two things to bear in mind. 1 its not guaranteed that Stevens goes to jail. (Article on MSNBC.com specualted he wouldn't have to serve any time), and 2 A convicted felon can still sit in the Senate, so no need to resign.
Can the Senate not expel members for disciplinary reasons? My impression is that convicted felons get expeled as a general rule.
Praise Jesus! Ras.
Still waiting on VA and NC.
Rasmussen getting in line on OH. FL a nice surprise. Rasmussen has always been closer than average on CO. MO has tightened.
Begich was pretty much on his own in this race, and it was getting a bit hairy, what with having Tubes Stevens decades-long conervative nutbase and Mooseburger spike in voting.
So Obama is leading in all of them? We still need to know North Carolina and Virgina though.
How can I tell if this is big news or not if there's no siren accompanying it?
MO, they can have MO, I'll take FL and OH.
ras numbers dont look much different than the other polls...
MO does not surprise me. I think Obama will when MO but it will be by less than 1% just like the primary. I hope Fox calls MO for Mccain then has egg on it's face. lol.
where are people seeing these RAS numbers? links anyone?
AlaskaGuy said...
You guys need to keep up. :) Alaska has to be one of the most corrupt states of the union. Uncle Ted is only one of a number already convicted by the Feds in the last year or so. Still under federal investigation is Congressman Don Young. Palin is purer than the driven snow compared to these guys.
She's only pure as the driven snow because a) she's relatively new to politics and b) the investigation into her affairs has only just begun.
I'm not the betting sort but I'd lay down huge money on the absolute certainty that she had gov't contractors build her house. Not a single doubt about it--very common form of graft and she wasn't particularly clever in covering her tracks. Hopefully you folks will follow through and clean house. Your state is gorgeous--it doesn't need such ugliness running it.
North Carolina
M-49
O-48
McCain down 1 from their last poll
No linkies yet, the subscribers get Ras numbers 30 minutes to an hour before the public.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_26_2008
found it :)
come on va and nc...
momma needs a new pair of shoes.
Virginia
O-51
M-47
WTF is the tragedy with the people in Missouri?
here's your siren
waaaaaooooooouuuuuuuuuaaaaaawaaaa
ooooouuuuuuaaaaa yiiip yellup uuka yiip uuuka yiip uuka uuka waaaaaaaooooooouuuuuuaaaaawaaa
ooooouuuuuaaaaa
perfa?
awesomeness...parise jesus.
IT IS OVERRRR!!!!
Summary
- I like the OH and FL numbers
- I'll take the CO and VA numbers, Rasmussen has typically been closer than other pollsters
- NC and MO will be close
Obama well positioned in all 6 states.
Thanks Antmatic--you are the best. you are our poll enabler/dealer.
we owe you pie.
Ugh at that Virginia number. Although with 8 days to go if Obama is consistently getting 50% or over in a state it'd be tough for him to lose it, especially with early voting.
That VA result from RR is much more in line with his other results in the state.
*Yawn*
Hmm, VA closer than I'd like it (as is CO), but the OH and FL numbers are fantastic. There are a number of other VA polls out today showing a more sizable lead, so I think it's going blue. NC and MO are pure toss-ups.
NC is going to Obama - look at the early voting there, IT IS HUUUUUUUUGE!
FOX NEWS:
Joe the Plumber to campaign with John McCain tomorrow.
At least Rasmussen is consistent.
Remember: the only pollsters we will remember after the election are the ones that were damn near accurate.
Considering the numbers Rasmussen is putting out compared to other pollsters with higher samples, I am convinced we will not be remembering Rasmussen polls for 2008.
Even if Nate wants to make sweet, sweet love with them on a desert island.
Nate is on the Rachel Maddow radio show in a few minutes....
lat,
hear, hear, I second the motion to send ant pie for the tremendous public service!!
Nate on Rachael Maddow's radio show.
My local station is
www.themic921.com
Bush's legacy? Do you really think he cares about that at this stage???
I do. I don't see Bush as personally corrupt as much as I see him as a means justify the ends type of guy who really believes most of what he says and does. Besides, why should he pardon Stevens? Stevens is not loved by either the Limbaugh or Dobson wings of the party. His only true supporters are Alaskans on the federal dole.
i kind of figured obama would be up alittle in ohio this week, most polls showed him gaining alittle. i was alittle suprised at FL,CO, and VA. thought NC would be the same.
Slightly disappointed in Rass' NC and MO numbers... those states will be the nail-biters, it seems, on Election Night.
Which, of course, is fine since those states are second or third string pick ups for Obama...
Woo!
^^^
Yep.
Thanks Antmatic,
Sad commentary on my obsession with this election, I like you more than my boyfriend at 8 in the morning. :)
@sfergus483
"The Obama campaign says they had not been informed about this plot.
"Not sure what the niceties are here, but one would think they'd be given a head's up and not have to hear about it from a reporter."
From the sound of it, these two guys probably aren't smart enough to get anywhere near Obama. I'm sure the ATF, FBI, Secret Service, etc., have hundreds of these kinds of leads that are under investigation at any given time. They have to be judicious in what they pass on to the campaigns.
"Joe the Plumber to campaign with John McCain tomorrow."
Really? Why?
Godamned librals!
At least Stevens wore a jimmy hat and is not not positive. ITs funny that you libs always want to change the subject... You cheaters and your monkey fingers can't suppress the GOP!
Just like you set us up in the airport,,, tapping???
There was no ball to ball smacking, no harm no fowl.
Palin will set us free!
sherwick, i'm sorry, but your pretty dumb if you think just cause the early voting is big in NC that you think its going obama.
back in 04 48% were dems voting early and like 25% were republicans. and bush still won. so never get fixated on the early vote tallys now.
big mistake if you do.
lol McCa9in. I was wondering if Antmatic was a boy or a girl to send a kiss along with the pie but thought better of it!
"Joe the Plumber to campaign with John McCain tomorrow."
Did the McCain campaign see the pulse pulling results the night of the last debate?
On CNN, 21 people were asked what they thought of the "Joe the Plumber" line. 20 said they didn't like it.
It has never worked. The guy was exposed as an intellectually corrupt fraud.
Why are they doing this?
Pat Andriola said...
FOX NEWS:
Joe the Plumber to campaign with John McCain tomorrow.
__________________________________
Oh good... Because that's working for him.
jnorthrop said...
"Joe the Plumber to campaign with John McCain tomorrow."
Really? Why?
show off !
Stepping back a bit here but, seriously, we're concerned about the polls from MISSOURI and NORTH CAROLINA?!?!?!? Who would have thought they'd even be in play at this point? Amazing.
Antmatic is a male
Not only does early voting feel great but I almost immediately stopped receiving campaign junk mail after I sent my early vote in. (And political phone calls.)
The McCain campaign should take responsibility for the ugly racial turn that this election has taken. We're not in a court of law where we have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they were behind Ashley Todd or the skinhead assassination plot or the cries of the n-word and "terrorist!" at campaign rallies. Willie Horton was subtle compared to the efforts to portray Obama as a radical pinko pointy-headed bomb-throwing Muslim foreigner. And what does the man in part responsible for both Palin and Iraq have to say about the McCain campaign: "Time for McCain to attack!"
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27kristol.html?hp
If Stevens wins in Alaska, as AlaskaGuy suggests might happen, then Todd Palin should become President of a new Republic of Alaska.
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