Obama rally, Palin rally... coming soon.
Seven months ago today this site Nate created went live, with 80 visits. Yesterday we reached 693,216... almost as many newly and updatedly registered Hoosiers. Glancing at the daily circulation figures for US newspapers, it looks like we're at or about the top ten and rising with a bullet. Good work, Nate. And thanks everybody for coming to visit. We hope you'll come for the polls and stay for the analysis and original content long after the election ends.
497 comments
Also, he's listed as "Barack Obama", at least on the ballot I voted on in Georgia. Middle names are generally abbreviated or not listed at all.
People vote for issues no for names.
Ignorants and racists vote for names.
>>LOL, you don't think he would be named BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA on the ballots?
That will make people think twice!
Prepare to be crushed libs. Crushed by the BRADLEY EFFECT!
Ho hum. Like that really hurt him in the primary. I'm not sure if you even understand what the Bradley Effect is.
The GOP radicals ARE afraid of Obama's middle name. It scares the crap out of them...its why they keep bringing it up. Then again they also fear witches, vampires, and Harry Potter (must be his 'scary glasses').
There isn't any noticeable difference between IVR (computer operated) polls and live polls.
For all the people obsessed with the Bradley Effect:
Why would people lie to a recording saying Press 1 for McCain, 2 for Obama?
I don't quite get that.
congrats on your well-deserved success!
Middle names aren't on the ballot.
Anyway:
"The amount of time Republicans spend talking about the Bradley Effect is inversely proportional to the fortunes of John McCain." - Nate Silver
These losers are so predictable.
Becky-
Barack has a message for you!
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this/
Love the site. I come here before I check my email.
Reading all these posts about what states are called, and when, on election day got me thinking about all the early voting.
Based on the ground game, etc, I suspect that much of early voting will favor Obama. When are these votes officially counted and added to the total? If it's later, then exit polls may show a much tighter race, and election night might resemble 2000.
"B-r-a-d-l-e-y E-f-f-e-c-t. Learn it, libs. Live it, libs. Hate it, libs."
Do we seem worried? Hey, just go back to your small town, cling to your guns and bible, and quake in fear of Barack Obama. You know you're afraid of him, just admit it - you coward. Why are you such a pants pissing coward? You're afraid of his middle name. That's just about the bottom of the barrel in terms of shit you should be scared of.
Your urine stains feed my confidence. Keep mentioning his name, I love it. It's like candy to me. You have no more ideas that aren't bankrupt and flawed. You have no more confidence in yourself or anything you believe in. All that you have left, is your fear, so go wallow in it.
I, too, love the idea that Republicans are going to be disappointed on November 5th by the fact that the majority of the American people are decent human beings.
@real joe: as long as you are LEGAL you are welcomed here
if you are ILLEGAL get the fu** out of here
It's hard for me to get my thong in a bunch about undocumented workers when our foreign and trade policies contribute to massive numbers of refugees around the world. How about the 2 million Iraqis streaming across their own borders because we made their country uninhabitable? How about our policies with Mexico and Central America, including propping up puppet dictators, that cause the huge disparities between the poor and the oligarchs? (Although we are finally seeing a socialist movement in Latin America that is thumbing its nose at Washington.)
Given that we've created atrocious conditions for millions of people around the world with our policies of disrupting populations, allowing people to cross our borders and try and make a better life for themselves just isn't something I worry about.
Put people in office who will change the way we do business and conduct ourselves with other national leaders, and maybe we wouldn't have what you consider a "problem" with undocumented workers.
You seem to have a penchant for overlooking the larger picture.
Shandowguidex said:
If you're seriously that pathetically weakwilled and fearful that a guy with a middle name of Hussein makes you quake in fear and piss yourself, you need to just shoot yourself in the head right now. You're a sad, frightened little boy who needs to grow up, and join the ranks of the men in this world. Honestly, who is afraid of a guy's name? fucking hell, you're pathetic.
Man that's served COLD and perfectly delicious. It really surprises me that this RWC tool knows how to read and write. Stunted growth I guess.
Secession details are blowing up now. + Troopergate.
Booyah.
Indeed.
"We are all not 'real' Americans now"
And we vote. Yay!
Trolls et al--
Read up on your Bradley Effect and talks amongst yourselves on some fundy-Christian-neocon-racist blogs.
"and PRESIDENT-ELECT PALIN!
And someday.....
MADAME VICE PRESIDENT PALIN!!!!"
Don't you have that backwards? lol.
In the small chance the ticket wins, she would start out as the VICE-president elect, then become Madame Vice President, then either in 2016 if she wins the primary or earlier if McCain dies, she becomes President.
"Bradley Effect" could be over rated
lets see what happens on election day
"Then again they also fear witches, vampires, and Harry Potter (must be his 'scary glasses')."
Conservatives fear pretty much everything and everyone they don't see everyday and don't understand - and since conservatives eschew education, there are a whole lot of things they don't understand. I know many of them, and it's really quite sad - they are a pants pissing pile of fearful human beings. They pretend that it's about being "strong", but the more you want to show how strong you are, the more your fear shows. None of them really have any balls.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx
wow
I posted that above Joe.
Pretty cool. No bradley effect!
The Bradley Effect is a myth. The GOPers are clinging to statistical fairy tales.
Crushed by the BRADLEY EFFECT!
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
No Bradley Effect:
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this/
fred your response was totally orthogonal to my post - but thanks for the laugh anyway
Becky-
It was no to today's post. It was your poll paranoia. When I saw that today, I thought of you.
Too much 538, I know...
Play with the race of the people are pathetic.
You guys do a great job, keep up the good work.
-Comes from an Obama field office in MO
This new Drudge thing... Does he have any new info from Wash Times or is he just stirring detritus again?
"The Bradley Effect is a myth. The GOPers are clinging to statistical fairy tales."
They cling to a lot of things, don't they.
Let them keep their hopes up. Their ultimate cascade into miserable failure following McCain's loss will only feed my exuberance.
Meet Sarah Palin’s radical right-wing pals
Discussion on Rachel Maddow tonight also.
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/10/palin_chryson/
mazza said...
This new Drudge thing... Does he have any new info from Wash Times or is he just stirring detritus again?
Go Matt Go...LOL
"This new Drudge thing... Does he have any new info from Wash Times or is he just stirring detritus again?"
He posted the same thing about a month ago. It's been studied and ultimately came to nothing. The Iraqis said that they had no such conversation. Drudge is a GOP tool and he's pulling out all the stops to try and get McCain elected.
What kills me the most is the add below my comment for the "Obama T-Shirt" is collecting money to register illegal immigrants to vote. Disgusting.
Suspicious package at Obama office- LA
the whole Wash Times story is a rehash of something that was debunked already by Republicans in Iraq. Even Ambassador Cocker says this is a lie. These people have no shame.
Drudge is curious. He had been if anything pro-Obama all year (certainly anti-Clinton, and down on McCain), and downplayed most Obama "controversies." Since the Palin choice, he has reverted to form. I suspect he either is getting big bucks from the GOP and/or there are personal contact or blackmail stuff to get him back in line. Or maybe he is gearing up to be the home of anti-Pres Obama stuff like he was with Bill Clinton.
Pre-Palin, the wingnut blogs were full of complaints about how balanced he had become.
illegal immigrants can't vote
even LEGAL immigrants can't vote
only citizens can vote
Real Joe, I saw that on the CNN online video but then the headline disappeared. Where did you see it?
What about Black Liberation Theology?
Does this have a legitimate place in American politics?
i got a call from a friend in LA
who needs reuters when you got real joe
lol
"What kills me the most is the add below my comment for the "Obama T-Shirt" is collecting money to register illegal immigrants to vote. Disgusting."
And the scapegoating continues. Conservatives are just hilarious. They're afraid of everything. They are afraid of China. Illegal Immigrants. Jews. Blacks. Europe, Muslims, etc etc etc. Holy shit buddy, ever think once in a while that all our problems are actually caused by US, and not all these scapegoats?
Get some courage. You're making us seem more like the right wing Nazi Germany by the statement. You know...the Nazi's hated all outsiders too - they blamed everyone else for their problems. They were ultra militant. They invaded other countries. We're so close to being like them it's not even funny.
Grow up, wipe the piss off your pants, read a book, and stop being afraid.
The Wash. Times piece will be no help to the McCain campaign. What will be a big help is the thuggish and probably illegal behavior of ACORN. The story is starting to get national play and this is something that can swing several of the old-Bush states firmly into the McCain column. People have a hard time understanding the complexities of credit-default swaps but people registered 30 times, the dead registered and Mickey Mouse registered to vote in PA .. that they will understand.
good night guys
"People have a hard time understanding the complexities of credit-default swaps but people registered 30 times, the dead registered and Mickey Mouse registered to vote in PA .. that they will understand."
Last I heard, they found 200 bad registrations. 200. That's it, 200. Wow. Not exactly the ultra huge story they make it out to be, is it?
fred, OH was cleanly won in 2004. As soon as the KY and IN results came out, I knew Kerry had little hope since it meant that Western and Southern OH were going to go massively for Bush. It was actually a little closer than I thought it would be.
WOW
Thanks and carry on
The GOP should have never made fun of community organizers...
"this is something that can swing several of the old-Bush states firmly into the McCain column."
Yes, you're exactly right. With the economy collapsing and people losing their jobs, homes, and retirement savings, what can *really* influence their vote is illegal voter registration! You're so in touch with the average voter! McCain 08!
shadow, I think that you are off by a factor of 100-200 at least. There were several hundred discovered in Philly alone thus far and that doesn't count the last-minute rush to register by October 6th.
There is nothing "anti-American" about black liberation theology. There is nothing frightening or suspicious about it. It's simply a way for black people to read the gospels in the context of understanding their struggles in a predominantly white society, with a focus on social justice issues and overcoming oppression. It arose out of the 1960s civil rights movement. How many people in this country would seriously denounce that movement as led by MLK?
I wasn't watching T.V. during the primaries when the Jeremiah Wright stuff hit the news, but I'm guessing that Obama missed his chance to educate the American public about black liberation theology. (Somebody can correct me if he in fact did this, or if the MSM somehow did it, which would be shocking.)
And that's really too bad. Because there's nothing "mystical" or suspicious about black liberation theology. I would argue that it's certainly much more mainstream than any of the religious weirdness Palin engages in as a Pentecostal.
Shadow:-
I would agree with you. I don't think this ACORN stuff amounts to anything given the fact that most voter rolls are absolutely teeming with the dead and errors anyway. But given how the GOP is trying to make hay out of a few meetings more than a decade ago...
More from the Ohio fraud.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weyrE9jLGn0
"shadow, I think that you are off by a factor of 100-200 at least. There were several hundred discovered in Philly alone thus far and that doesn't count the last-minute rush to register by October 6th."
Mhm. In the mad dash to register hundreds of thousands of people, i'm sure some shenanigans went on. Some people filled out their forms with the name Mickey Mouse, etc. Big woop. This is, at best, a local election issue, not a national news cycle huge issue. A couple hundred fucked up registrations...weeeee...who gives a shit.
adam, it is common knowledge that both of them and their running-mates are clueless on the economy. There is no Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton in the bunch. Since none of the four have any clue (and it is obvious in the debates that they don't) some voters will have to key on other issues.
More date about the Ohio Fraud:
"The Washington Post reported "Franklin is the only Ohio county to use Danaher Control's ELECTronic 1242, an older-style touchscreen voting system." Franklin County's voting machine allocation report shows that Damschroder deployed his Danaher (formerly Shooptronics) voting machines, which have been in use since 1992, in a formula that favored Bush over Kerry.
In precinct 55-B on Columbus' near east side, there were 1,338 registered voters and, according to Franklin County Board of Elections estimates, 956 active voters who had voted in the last two federal elections. Despite voter registration being up 17%, and by the BOE's own guidelines the polling place requiring ten machines (one per 100 voters), the polling site had only three machines, one less than for the 2000 elections.
The Election Protection Coalition that visited the voting site between 7:30-8:30 a.m. documented a dozen people leaving the polls, six to go to work and six who were either elderly or handicapped. But things were worse in other areas of Columbus".
If you want to continue tax cuts on the wealthy and privatizing the treasury, Mitt Romney is your man.
Talk about a repeat of the last 8 years.
"adam, it is common knowledge that both of them and their running-mates are clueless on the economy. There is no Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton in the bunch. Since none of the four have any clue (and it is obvious in the debates that they don't) some voters will have to key on other issues."
Or we try to judge the candidates by their advisors, hmm...
Warren Buffett vs. Carly Fiorina
Robert Rubin vs. Phil Gramm
I CANT DECIDE!!!
How Kerry votes were switched to Bush votes:
http://www.jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html
From: Canizales, Cesar
To:
Sent: Thu Oct 09 16:46:21 2008
Subject: Todd Palin to campaign in Maine
PORTLAND, Maine (AP) – Todd Palin, wife of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, to campaign in Maine.
(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
Check out that post from GretaWire (one of the lame shows on FoxNews). I love how it calls Todd Palin the WIFE of Sarah. That made my sides hurt when I read it. I guess they are trying to win some districts in Maine and part of the EV, but I don't think it will work. Just spending more money where they don't need to be. I love it.
Just in - looks like Palin is going to be cleared on any charges from Troopergate. At least that's what the memo from the McCain camp said on CNN. Oh well...I'm glad she's still around running for 2012 because that's about the only hope that she has left.
New Strategic Vision Polls
New Strategic Vision Polls
Florida
Obama 52
McCain 44
(O + 8)
Ohio
Obama 48
McCain 46
(O + 2)
More info about the fraud in Ohio.
http://www.electiontruth.org/
I've been lurking since Poblano days (my dear wife alerted me). I too am responsible for a lot of visits/day. This is the best site for data and analysis geeks of all collors. Congratulations andthanks a lot guys!
Thanks for the education, fivethirtyeight. Now I know that "pants-pissing conservatives" should have that hyphen.
This ACORN thing is really irritating to me.
I'd like to know what specifically the rightwing thinks ACORN is doing wrong and what specifically they would like them to fix.
Registering poor and minority voters is a good thing. You need to have safeguards to make sure bad registrations don't slip through, but from everything I've read ACORN has safeguards.
If the rightwing is so concerned about the safeguard process, why don't they go down to their local ACORN office and volunteer to help work on the screening. ACORN (like all community organizations) could definitely use the help.
But thats not what the rightwing is really concerned with. They aren't afraid of the hundreds of bad registrations that get through. They are concerned with the millions of good ones.
Truth be told, they don't want any poor or minority people voting. They want to scare the hell out of people from volunteering or working with registration.
Prosecute them whether they did anything wrong or not. Maybe then they will think twice before trying to register poor people.
I think this is despicable and its an affront to democracy.
I spend way too much time at the site. I'm sure my boss is counting the minutes that I spend on this site.
Being in Illinois I never get to see any Obama advertising but I just saw one on the Phillies/Dodgers game on FOX. Nice.
Hi Nate and Sean. I want to congratulate you on your sites success, and wish you the best in the future.
An Irish fan
Any links to those Strategic Vision polls? The Florida one looks great. I wish Ohio was better but there's still time.
World markets are continuing the slide; the wave is going around the planet to smack us again tomorrow morning.
Bush's talk at 10? Nationalize banks? Print more money? Shoot some CEOs?
Obama doesn't need FL AND OH AND VA AND NC AND MO AND CO; just one. McCain needs all of them.
I also wanted to tell you how much I appreciate your coverage of the yard sign. My boyfriend is a deputy field organizer in central Indiana. Tonight I talked to him for the first time in a while, and practically the first thing he did was launch into a tirade about people who ask for yard signs. Apparently his office has had some VERY abrasive requests for signage.
Found the links over at DKos. Very, very nice polls.
If we all have food and clothes and some money left for gas to make it to the polls on Nov 4 it will be even better.
World markets are collapsing and Bush is probably drinking Hamms beer in the White House watching the Phillies/Dodgers. Seriously, why WOULD he care if his approval rating went from 30 to 15?
Ed Rollins on CNN just now (long time GOP consultant) - it's over, Obama will win in a landslide, 10 seat Senate gain possible, McCain needs to worry about his reputation and not making it worse for his party.
i'm a lurker also, but this, plus andrew sullivan's blog are my new favorite sites. i really appreciate the info and the members who have really smart/respectful comments. i've been sort of irritated at CNN and other sites with the hateful comments posted. thanks nate. great job making the rounds this week (olbermann, colbert). thanks everyone!
538 fan since day one!
Mule rider ,its wasn't till today, when you've gone past the personal attacks and the kind of adolescent use of profanities,that I see your posts and deserving of being read and replied to with respect. I used to think you were ruining the site, but not today.
"They'd be Western Iran if we left them alone."
No, if we left them alone in the first place, they wouldn't be weakened.
That is what happens when you invade a sovereign nation without cause.
***************
What is funny is how these right wingers are afraid of the name Hussein.
Last I checked it was pretty common in parts of the world.
Barack was born in, what, 1962?
Saddam came into power in 1979.
I guess there really is a connection! Idiot. I guess everyone in the world named Ted Bundy is a serial killer?
Don't forget that your idol Reagan supported, funded, and armed this lunatic.
Guys,
FTE provides real math regarding opinion, not just opinion that's supposed to look like math. Bringing this level of analysis into the mainstream has been an unattainable goal for years. I can't wait to see y'all be the site to watch when the countdown hits zero.
Keep it up!
I've been an obsessed 538 fan since "way back" in May but this is my first post. You're doing an awesome job, Nate and Sean. Congrats!
Nate,
Amazing Numbers!
I've been reading you ever since you first started on DailyKos (What's up Pablano?) and I started at this site, I'm guessing, in the first week.
Hope you are able to get some decent CPM rates!
Congrats Nate and Sean. I'm another addicted fan of yours and have been for quite a while--found my first post back in March in a thread with single digit comments.
New Strategic Vision Polls Florida
Obama 52
McCain 44
(O + 8)
Ohio
Obama 48
McCain 46
(O + 2)
These are great numbers for Obama considering SV's strong Republican lean and it's most recent prior polls in FL and OH;
FL: M+3 on 9/22 to O+8 = O+11 shift
OH: M+4 9/8 to O+2 = O+6 shift
So, any hint for us new loyal readers about your focus after the election?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
The above is another great map showing a different method of computing the polls but it's numbers come out very much the same.
It looks like it will take a major event to put McCain over the top.
Nate will always be a bit of Poblano to me..
Thanks for the educating for this auto-Didactic.
May I add my congratulations from Belgium?
The success of this site is well deserved, imho.
As a stats and politics geek, this site is a dream come true - thanks!
If you want to keep me visiting, keep up the insightful statistical analysis about other important issues/interests besides politics.
I am in Paris right now, and your site was featured briefly on TV on France 24 (www.france24.com). Congratulations. And, congratulations on the Countdown with Keith Olbermann appearance too.
I would like to add my congratulations from Belgium. The success of this site is well deserved.
um, "rising with a bullet" is redundant.
Love the site, btw. Keep up the good work.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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^^ very nice
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