Obama rally, Palin rally... coming soon.
Seven months ago today this site Nate created went live, with 80 visits. Yesterday we reached 693,216... almost as many newly and updatedly registered Hoosiers. Glancing at the daily circulation figures for US newspapers, it looks like we're at or about the top ten and rising with a bullet. Good work, Nate. And thanks everybody for coming to visit. We hope you'll come for the polls and stay for the analysis and original content long after the election ends.
523 comments
Gongratulations!
Keep up the good work!
Y'all give great web.
Oops GC
Congrats, but keep in mind that visitors is a much looser number than newspaper circ. Still a *very* impressive number.
That we do. Excellent work!
Speaking of analysis, I'd like to hear your guys opinion of the NYT article on voter registration purges in battleground states.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27093919/
What are you going to do after the election ends? I do a daily note for a mailing list and while the list is growing by the day, I'm damned if I know what I'm going to say when it's Nov 5 and there are no more daily tracking polls...and I can only keep about half of them interested if I make it about baseball...
Yesterday we reached 693,216
*********
you mean daily ????
Troopergate report: coming out tomorrow!
http://www.adn.com/palin/story/550940.html
I love this site!!
nice work. well deserved. Your traffic could still triple from there before the election.
I recommend an RSS feed of the key stats that people can post on their newsreaders of choice, or their own blogs. Push the numbers out to people and get them to click through to see the details.
This is the place I go to for the most accurate information and where I quote statistics to deluded MySpace bloggers who brag about being "independent" when evt erything they post reflects Republican values or those who are so deluded only Republicans are right for America. Hah!
CUTTING CONFESSIONS the touching fate driven love story between a midwestern man and an abused and artistic Beverly Hills girl brought together by fate-set at the hospital known as the inspiration for the song Hotel California, the Las Vegas Strip, Beverly Hills and Lake Havasu-high drama/cutting edge comedy:
www.myspace.com/370392338
The deranged criminal moron who thought it would be a good idea to send me a death threat against Bristol Palin and her unborn child plows into a dump truck head on in an alcohol related collision just 48 hours later-more here:
www.myspace.com/370392338
Congratulations guys. You've made a great site.
This has actually become my favorite election site since I found it during the primaries. I'm really impressed that it has the most rigorous poll analysis and discussion community (aside from the trolls that are coming out in force lately), AND some of the best political analysis I've seen anywhere.
Top this off with the best groundgame primary reporting I've seen yet, and you have a heck of a quality product, Nate, Sean & Co.
Congrats to Nate, Sean and Brett for producing an excellent site, with wonderful statistical information, and interesting commentary, as well as inspiring road stories. You are a head of the curve! Seriously, you folks should open up a cafe press store or something and sell 538 merch... or something.
Our pleasure. You do your part and keep a wonderful site, and me and thousands of others will do their part and visit.
Nice to know that quality is, at least sometimes, recognized.
Great Work-- I've been checking in several times a day for a while now, and I really appreciate what you guys are doing!
It is a magnificent site, and you guys should be proud.
I'm a complete 538 addict. It is one of the very first sites I read each day, and I constantly refresh my browser to check for updates. Of course, I'm more of a political junkie than most, but you've done amazing, incredible work.
There's nothing else that is so comprehensive, and yet so easily digested all in one site. And your commentary and analysis is easily of in a league with the best of them.
A Colbert bump?
I've been wondering what you guys plan to do with this site after election day. Glad to hear you have plans -- I look forward to finding out what they are.
Congratulations!
Congratulations indeed! The success is well-deserved. I, in fact, did come for the polls and stayed for the words. The statistics are interesting; your analysis is fascinating and uplifting. It is largely because of you, Nate and Sean, that I feel like I can have an intelligent conversation about this election with anyone who cares to engage me. I've converted dozens of friends to your site, and everyone loves it. Thanks for everything you do!
I wonder how many of us were among that 80? I think I was, since I had hotlisted Poblano on Daily Kos at the time. It's interesting that I rarely go to Daily Kos anymore, but I am a total 538 addict. I think that I went largely for the numbers and the discussion about them, and since they are so much superior here I don't really feel compelled to leave this place. It totally ruins my productivity though.
Political sites always lose readership after a Presidential election. You may as well take a vacation until January.
pretty sweet, like this site----most of the time lol.
ras just came out with a NC, and FL poll obama up 1 in NC now insted of 3. and obama up 3 in FL insted of 7. good news for mccain making up alittle ground he lost before.
693 thousand page views yesterday . . . wow! (and only about 50 of them were me!).
(You need more advertising space and a general redesign of the site so you can take advantage of that level of traffic.)
this is quite simply the best election coverage available online right now.
(posted from an Obama field office in Southern OH)
It's true, this site has caught fire all over the country. I've never seen a site shoot off before--well, maybe HuffPo, but that was a well-oiled, well-planned, hugely bank-rolled affair.
Hope this doesn't change ya'll too much! Keep it real!
Gawd, I'm a Brit and I'm, like, totally addicted to this site myself. I don't think I'll get any work at all done before election day. Great stuff Nate - keep it up. And thanks.
After the election, maybe some online Family Feud...Survey says...
Seriously, congrats on a good site built on the foundation of a solid program.
Keep up the first-rate work and analysis, and you'll keep the readers.
Congrats and well done!
hey numbers guys - take your numbers with a pinch of salt. people like me visit the site a dozen times a day!
seriously -- FANTASTIC work. it's SUCH a great feeling to see statistics applied intelligently.
Awesome! this site is great, thanks for all the work you put into this!!!
I'd imagine the site will drop in readership after the election, but become more interesting.
In many ways, the statistical minutia is more interesting in the "down" periods, where it isn't drowned out by some of the theatrics of political campaigning.
It will be interesting to see if the site focuses on races outside of presidential and congressional politics.
Real Rasmussen
Florida
Obama - 50
McCain -47
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election
North Carolina
Obama - 49
McCain - 48
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election
Best blogsite of election 08'
I know I'm responsible for at least 10 to 20 hits a day...
Just a note on accessibility of the site. I occassionally try to access it via BlackBerry, but never have the patience to wait for site to finish fully loading. I'm not a programmer, but I've heard of this problem with other sites and I think it has something to do with the use of three columns on the blog and whatever tools are used for the charts/graphs. I think there's a way to program it so the middle column or text loads first. Just my two cents. Keep up the great work.
Nate, Sean and Brett - when I get fired from my job, owing to my inability to stop refreshing this page, you will be hearing from my lawyers.
They'll be asking you if I can have a job.
Timothy said...
"Congrats, but keep in mind that visitors is a much looser number than newspaper circ. Still a *very* impressive number."
Yeah, "visitors" actually read 538. How many newspapers are simply tossed in the recycle bin?
Awesome job on Colbert, Nate!
After the election, you should use your 'following' as an Impeach Clarence Thomas movement.
Congrats, Nate & Sean (and Brett, too)! You've done a great job - this really is a fabulous site. It's crack for math geeks.
I'm thrilled to hear you have post-election plans; I was not looking forward to going cold turkey in four weeks. Hopefully the election will give you enough data to analyze for a very long time. Think of all The Effects to quantify!
citizen grim: I think Nate and Sean will collapse in a heap shortly after the election. But there will still be plenty to analyze and write about in the politics and media realms.
However, from what I know about Nate's Baseball Prospectus role , he's going to be very busy in November and December with his baseball forecasting model to meet the deadline for next season's annual book. So that will be an especially challenging time for him.
Are you guy's hiring? I have a background in marketing and PR.
and if I'm not mistaken, your computer's IP address only registers as one hit per day, no matter how many times (like me) you visit this site. So the 600K+ number is unique visitors daily. Nate (or other programmers) correct me if I'm mistaken.
Rich Merritt
You guys are awesome and your analysis is the best and most creative on the web. I tell everybody about your site, and was happy to see Nate on Keith and the Colbert Report lately - keep up the good work!!!
Did we miss an Indiana Poll on the 7th from Rasmussen? I was checking what the real numbers were for "He" in the last thread.
Indiana
Obama - 43
McCain - 50
This is not in the list for this site but is dated October 7th on the Rasmussen site.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_election
"I know I'm responsible for at least 10 to 20 hits a day..."
"people like me visit the site a dozen times a day!"
10 to 20 hits? Dozens? That only qualifies you as dabbling addicts. I must hit refresh here several hundred times a day, and that's when I'm trying to be productive. It's funny (or sad?) how so many of us really are like addicts, sitting on our hands patiently waiting for new polls and new updates, patiently hitting the refresh button and reading the new comments. I'm sure that some medical person will diagnose it as a disorder and write it up after the election.
McCain is Not Racist, as Far as I Know
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
2nd Debate: Live Analysis
Five Thirty Eight T-shirts please...
This is completely dorky, but earlier today I set my facebook status to "is wondering if everyone on earth reads 538. It really seems like it."
I'm glad that there is now data to validate my hypothesis.
(Also, ditto the are you guys hiring? I'm a statistician of the non baseball variety. My contracting rates are very reasonable ;-) )
I love this site.
Very clever composition of that photo with the SS agents on the roof there right under Obama's finger.
-- Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin --
wow, i never saw that indiana poll either. wow shocking. great news for mccain though
IN poll is good news for McCain and matches up fairly well with the 538 Regression (Mc +4.7). I guess he might hold onto one or two red states after all...
This is EXCELLENT news!!! For FiveThirtyEight.com!!!
From the new Ras Florida poll:
Obama is supported by 87% of Democrats and holds a fifteen point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 85% or Republicans.
What R/D/I split arrives at just a 3% lead then?
Also:
While Obama leads 52% to 45% among men in Florida, the race is nearly tied among women, with Obama ahead 49% to 48%.
Are there any other states where this is happening, namely, Obama winning men and losing women? I thought that it was always the other way round.
rasmussen just added the indiana poll on his site, guess he miss dated it.
I hate to burst your bubble, but of your 693,216 visits, I think I account for ~400,000, and my wife for ~200,000.
:)
Nate/Sean:
Congratulations on all that you have accomplished here. Although fivethirtyeight is pretty much required reading for me now, I am afraid that the only way I will remember to read it consistently after the election is if you provide an RSS feed that I can add to my Google Reader or Google Homepage. If you're worried about losing ad revenue, you can publish an excerpt of your feed using feedburner. Please - every single other blog I read on a daily basis gives out an RSS feed, why can't you?
Yeah I love this site - just keep in mind that the whole reason people are flocking to it is to get excited about an exciting candidate and an exciting race. As statisticians you ought to know how to face the hard truth that viewership will drop sharply after the election. :P Not that your work isn't appreciated.
@Smunker,
Good catch on those Florida internals. Really bad bad ID weighting if O is up by 15 among independents and is holding his party better than McCain is holding his. Also very weird men / women stat.
Another bomb:
Civitas/Tel Opinion (R) NC:
Obama 48
McCain 43
Very good pollster in the NC primaries.
from one of the original 80, I gotta give you guys a ton of props.
Poblano and PocketNines sure have come a long way, even though you guys rocked before the site.
You keep writing and I'll keep reading and throwing your name out through the Tubes.
Oh, and Nate, I think my mom has a covert crush on you.
I've no idea how this site works, but you can compare visits with any other site.
I'm a data whore! I love it here! More data! More data!!
Republican Leaning Civtas/TelOpinion
North Carolina
Obama - 48
McCain - 43
Here
Come for the "change," stay in your chains.
Love the regressions, hate the analysis!
Congrats. Love the site.
I wish more of the media operated with the frankness Nate and Sean do.
God knows we need it.
Civitas is a rep pollster but it was the best in the NC primaries.
Nate an Sean, I've been here since day one. (maybe before counting Poblano's posts at DailyKos) and all I can say is, (to use a hoary sports metaphore)
"your competition isn't strong enough to lift your jock, let alone fill it."
You're studs. Congratulations are both due and proper. Seriously, I've learned more from you guys about politics and polling in these last few months than my entire life. I'm grateful for your kindness.
Addicts never leave. Maybe not show up several times a day, but...
You guys do a great job. No wonder we love this site.
I've learned a lot here from Nate and Sean and from the peanut gallery. Middle class vs. middle-class. Don't ever say Indianans. That some in the UK, New Zealand, and Australia know more about our politics than some Americans. That spell check on blogger doesn't know what Zealand is. Plenty of other stuff. One or two weird things I didn't want to know.
Brett, your pictures are inspirational.
FUNNY!
On Fast Money show on CNBC just now:
President Bush to do a statement tomorrow at 10Am, and the guys on the show said that President Bush will probably name Gen. Petraeus as the guy who will take over the market/economic crisis response, with a surge!
That's probably what McCain is pushing for too!
I think the recent dramatic drop in the Dow is directly attributable to plummeting productivity among American office workers.
Thanks a lot, Nate.
There already is an rss feed:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/538dotcom
From CNN
"A string of new state polls also show Obama holding significant leads in several key battleground states, including Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. McCain is holding onto leads in Montana and Missouri."
Hahahaha. Holding onto MT and MO!
Sorry for the double post - I put it on an old thread.
I agree with fiatluxury...total time suck from work...but SO worth it! And I get happy when I think of the McLame offices looking at your numbers and cringing.
Even if I stop coming here regularly, you can guarantee I will be back for the next election from day 1, and every election after that, should you continue to provide your statistical services. :)
Andrew said...
"I think the recent dramatic drop in the Dow is directly attributable to plummeting productivity among American office workers.
Thanks a lot, Nate."
Win.
Nate et al, you redefined what a poll site can and should be in a very substantive and attractive way - you're like the iPhone of poll sites.
It's great to see smart people prevail.
For sure Stephen Colbert is going to be looking for a little payola.
Hey Congratulations guys. Other than frustrating the hell out of me with the comments over 200 problem, I love this website.
Hi there all,
I've been frequenting fivethirtyeight since just after the primaries when a random google search of electoral ties led here. I can't say enough how much stimulating conversation the site has allowed me to engage in with my friends, and I thought today seemed like a great day to say:
Thank you!
-Trae, Birmingham, AL
Congrats, Nate. I retract some of my prior insults about your site's obscurity.
Any way you'd ever be interested in matching up for a little Texas Hold 'Em action sometime?
Do you still play online?
The RepubliCONs are going to be floundering for about 30 years. I love it! Screw 'em. The New Deal II. you like apples beeyotches? I've been suffering with a retard government since I was a little kid all the way back to 1980. Reagan was a dud with terrible policie, but oh he had charm. Since then, the Neo-Cons have bastardized his olicies and doubled-down on his stupidity. They've come close to destroying our country. I'm not 100% sure we can dig our way out, but certainly Democratic Domination is our only hope. I actually consider myself a centrist, but the Neo-Con Republicans don't remotely resemble Lincoln and Teddy and Ike. Their extremists. They are as extreme as the fundamentalists in the Middle East. We need to be rehabilitated with some rational thought from the Dems who would be centrists in almost every country in Europe. Obama needs to be more than JFK. He needs to be JFK and FDR rolled into one. Here's hoping.
Lol @ Rasmussen showing an opposite trend than every other poll. What a joke.
Just in from CNN:
Obama purchasing 30 minutes of network airtime
Posted: 05:33 PM ET
From CNN Senior Producer Sasha Johnson
(CNN) – Barack Obama is buying 30 minutes of airtime on the major television networks just days before the presidential election, the Obama campaign confirms.
Sources with the Obama campaign say half hour blocks have been purchased on Wednesday, October 29. The campaign would not disclose which networks the airtime has been purchased on, but a Hollywood reporter story said earlier Thursday the campaign has already reached a deal with CBS and is in talks with NBC and Fox.
http://tinyurl.com/3j4br5
Trae, where are you in Birmingham? I got transplanted from Southside to Vestavia.
Roll Tide!
electoral-vote.com
"The goverment is now toying with the idea of giving the banks even more money in return for (preferred) stock. In most counries this would be called nationalizing the banks. Who would have thought that the Bush/Cheney administration would go down in history as bigger socialists than FDR? The plan would be voluntary, but it still undercuts a basic tenet the Republican Party has held sacred for a century: the government should leave the private sector to manage itself. It will be interesting to see how the candidates respond to this new wrinkle."
"Addicts never leave."
True, huh, Mule Rider?
I thought you swore you were never coming back.
Brett, your photos are a class act. Congrats guys!
I do appreciate Reagan's hawkish spending to take down our Cold War Communist "enemy", but man the cost of that should not have been to destroy our country slowly. It's all got to change. $10 trillion deficit, screwed up economy, world no longer looks up to us, we start wars we shouldn't start, health care, education, and energy situation are an unadulterated mess. Come on folks. Obama 2009-16/ Schweitzer 2017-24/ Kaine 2025-2032/ Chlesea Clinton 2033-2040, then we can have a centrist Republican like Ike in 2041.
I do appreciate Reagan's hawkish spending to take down our Cold War Communist "enemy", but man the cost of that should not have been to destroy our country slowly. It's all got to change. $10 trillion deficit, screwed up economy, world no longer looks up to us, we start wars we shouldn't start, health care, education, and energy situation are an unadulterated mess. Come on folks. Obama 2009-16/ Schweitzer 2017-24/ Kaine 2025-2032/ Chlesea Clinton 2033-2040, then we can have a centrist Republican like Ike in 2041.
Way to go guys. I'm a big fan from the former battleground state of WI. Currently we've settled in to the Obama camp.
Congrats guys. Been following Nate's top-notch statistical analysis since before 538 came online (and have the D-Kos comments to prove it).
I'm somewhat shocked that something so good actually caught on. Give me hope for the future.
After seeing the Times article about GOP attempts at voter suppression I called my Democratic Party headquarters here in Northern Indiana and they recommended that I vote early. They said that the Obama campaign is spreading the message especially in the battleground states. Don't risk GOP shenanigans on election day and DON'T trust provisional ballots. THIS IS IMPERATIVE. VOTE NOW, DON'T WAIT UNTIL ELECTION DAY!!!! The GOP will use any tactics they can to win this election.
Eric,
JFK would have been a republican today. He cut taxes across the board, not giving a different deal to one group or the other.
While he had many stratgic blunders, he played to the best in America not the worst type of cynicism in the obama campaign.
If Obama does get elected there will be a new separation in this company. Many will not accept him from day one.
This is not Bill Clinton you are electing. Clinton is a right wing idealogue compared to the radical obama.
eric, you're becoming a certified utopic fantasy troll.
Keep up the great work guys. You have by far one of the very best political blogs on the net, and I read a lot of them (probably too many).
"Obama purchasing 30 minutes of network airtime"
Brilliant move and just goes to show how much of a lead in cash that Obama holds. I wonder if McCain will try to retaliate and squander all of his cash with 30 mins of his own.
Wouldn't miss it for the world, kids. Besides, they haven't come out with gum or a patch yet.
Second the request for a BlackBerry fix, if you please.
New CNN polls:
MN + 11
NH + 9
OH + 4
MO - 1
MT - 5
(+ indicating Obama lead)
There's definitely a market for statistically based political analysis, if you adapt you can stay relevant long after the election. But you need to do something about the forums, which can potentially drive a lot of traffic to your site but need to be moderated and have a better user log-in system so people can't imitate each other any more.
Congrats guys, a great site.
nkpolitics1279 said...
Obama has a lock in
CA 55
CT 62
DC 65
DE 68
HI 72
IL 93
MA 105
MD 115
NY 146
RI 150
VT 153
McCain has a lock in
AK 3
AL 12
AZ 22
ID 26
KS 32
KY 40
NE 45
OK 52
TN 63
TX 97
UT 102
WY 105
7:00pm ET polls in (GA,IN,SC,and VA) close. McCain wins GA and SC. Obama wins IN and VA.
7:30pm ET polls in (NC,OH,and WV) close. McCain wins WV. Obama wins NC and OH.
8:00pm ET polls in (FL,ME,MO,MS,NH,NJ,PA)close. McCain wins MS. Obama wins FL,ME,MO,NH,NJ,and PA.
The election is over. Obama wins the 2008 US Presidential Elections. before 9:00pm.
8:30 pm ET polls in AR close. McCain wins AR.
9:00 pm ET polls win (CO,LA,MI,MN,NM,SD,and WI)close. McCain wins LA and SD.
Obama wins CO,MI,MN,NM,and WI.
Obama will be officially declared the winner of the 2008 US Presidential Election before the Pacific coast states CA,HI,OR,and WA are called.
Oops, looks like those CNN polls are just an aggregation of other polls - sorry, guys!
is this real ?
its ok Kate
You guys are doing a bang-up job. Discovering fivethirtyeight.com has been one of the many highlights of this election cycle.
Blackberry users--download the Opera browser.
this site, as well as just about any site work great on it and it is free.
Google it.
nkpolitics1279
No way they call VA and IN that fast. If those two are blue, the election is over, and if the election is over, everyone goes to bed.
Trust me: at least 3 of IN, VA, NC, OH and FL will be "too close to call" for prime time.
The best contribution to the site is the open access of this board. On sites on the left and right alike, your are kicked off of the sight if your views are one way or the other. Thanks for not turning into Dkos(from which you came) or Redstate. I guess if you are too far to the left or right, you lose all of your sense of humor.
robby said...
nkpolitics1279
No way they call VA and IN that fast. If those two are blue, the election is over, and if the election is over, everyone goes to bed.
Trust me: at least 3 of IN, VA, NC, OH and FL will be "too close to call" for prime time.
robby
the word will get out
Networks are not going to fu** the people
let me be amongst the first 600 to congratulate you; great work, guys. i'm addicted.
to the person who posted that the election would be called b4 cal, etc. polls close...i believe the networks still have an agreement not to call the race until those polls close; so it will be 10:00 cst when the race is called.
Jack be stupid,
JFK would be a republican, like the republicans today? He was not about a lack of ideas, division and hate.
Man, what fantasy world do you live in?
Thank you for the laugh.
Obama is slightly to the left of center. Clinton, was slightly right of center. What is frightening is the extreme right wing nutjobs think both of these people are "leftists". More stupidity from the right.
Doesn't the right wing exceed their recommended daily level of stupidity each day? Usually before noon.
I second the idea of revamping the website, particularly the comment section. It is third rate, which doesn't jive with the first rate number crunching and analysis.
David,
If you think the people at DKos & huffington are mainstream, there is nothing I can do for you.
Nate & Sean
you guys are great
why the fu** do i come here ?
this site is the best
we may disagree about Obama & Dem party but its good to be with you all
Jen,
I'm going to modify my approach. Post much, much less, thereby not getting into endless, angry banter with the regulars.
I'm better at dropping a snark or two every day or so and leaving it at that than trying to holler at the top of my lungs defending myself or my positions or trying to change anyone elses.
I'm successful in life, so I ain't going to get caught up in political anger. It really doesn't matter to me who is elected, and I'm probably better off financially with a Democratic administration, so they can send the check to....
Congrats!
Congratulations from New Zealand.
Excellent site, my office colleagues and I can't help but update more often than we should (even the boss wants the updates now!) All the best for November, just wish we could vote along with you. Fingers crossed Obama/Biden '08
good to see you mule rider
Please tell me I can stop worrying about Obama's poll numbers. I just saw Pat Buchanan on Hardball and he was foaming at the mouth on Ayers.
any more polls coming out today ?
Thanks for your efforts. One problem is that my work productivity has slipped because I keep poring over the great news minutia.
Also, I saw your interview with Dan Rather, and I was very glad to see you are a nerd (really!). It gives you so much more numerical credibility than any slick talking head will ever have. So, from one data analyst to another, keep your computer cranking this stuff out!
I just found you guys about 3 weeks ago, and now I'm checking in at least a couple of times a day -- keep up the good work!
Excellent site and I hope you stay around after the election.
The networks would be stupid to try to call Virginia fast unless one candidate or the other wins big. Virginia precincts tend to report results slow and early returns can be really deceiving.
I expect Obama to have a huge lead early, as the People's Republics of Arlington & Alexandria usually account for a large percentage of early returns, but McCain will close later. The question will be whether he can close enough.
so can any of you who saw the earlier and now changed numbers from Rass explain to me what happened? They posted them and took the m down only to put up better numbers for McCain? Huh?
pj mcilvaine said...
Please tell me I can stop worrying about Obama's poll numbers
LOL
Real Joe;
Many of the states will not be called as the polls close. Indiana, for instance, will have a crush of voters in Lake County ( especially since early voting there is being "limited" to a few sites ). Look at how long it took for the Dem Primary to be counted there.
I second the idea of revamping the website, particularly the comment section. It is third rate
It's only third rate because of all the anger and hate-mongering, bullying and harassing of people not of an extreme liberal persuasion or the idiotic far right wingers who troll on here trying to disrupt the comments with bullshit.
It's generally civil, though, from most people with at least an ounce of an open mind and understanding, regardless of political affiliation.
Nate tha' Great, ldo. Sklansky once predicted that 2+2'ers would "take over the world" due to their superior grasp of conditional probability (D.S. masturbates to a recording of Bayes', holla.)
IMO, a popular-gone-viral cult following from 100k's of ultra-high-information voters isn't a bad place to start!
In response to above posters,
We are in the worst situation we've been in as a country since the 1932 election. The country needed to flip the script completely. We had a dominant Republican party from the Civil War to FDR pretty much. From 1933-1968 we became the leader of the free world. Eisenhower could have easily been a Democrat. We had Democratic rule from 1933-1968. When the country is going fairly well, gridlock and two-parties balancing each other is probably a good thing. We are so far out of whack we need Democrat Domination. I am a centrist, but I believe the country needs to go cold turkey on Neo-Con crap for a generation at least to get better. When the RepubliCOn party figures out that they have to change or fad into oblivion, they will change. That party would be worth considering. Fiscal conservatism has merit. Slightly more hakw than dove is perhaps the best policy for the leader of the free world. But, the current Republican party is an atrocity. The worst pssible platform on virtually every issue. Trickle down economics is stupid. Hawk to the point of pissing off all of our allies and created haters in places that don't love us. Social conservatism to the point where we're the gestapo. WTF. The entire free world thinks we're a joke right now. They just won't say it because we're the world's best hope. If we fall ,the world is not in great shape. But, make no mistake I'm not a left-wing liberal nut from SF, I'm pretty much a centrist just calling a spade a spade. This country desperately needs to change for a long time.
Yeah Mule Rider is back! I told you yesterday that your name is disgustingly hilarious. We need smart people on the other side like you and Real Joe.
MR-
Okay. It is not the first time that you said you were leaving and I am sure it will not be your last.
Two posts in a row without profanities. Maybe you have turned over a new leaf.
Congratulations from a fellow U of C alum and keep up the great work!
REpublicans, please comment. You have called Obama a socialist.
"The goverment is now toying with the idea of giving the banks even more money in return for (preferred) stock. In most counries this would be called nationalizing the banks. Who would have thought that the Bush/Cheney administration would go down in history as bigger socialists than FDR? The plan would be voluntary, but it still undercuts a basic tenet the Republican Party has held sacred for a century: the government should leave the private sector to manage itself. It will be interesting to see how the candidates respond to this new wrinkle."
Kelly-
The last places to report in 2006 were Fairfax Co. and Richmond City.
eric, you're predicting presidential candidates for the next 30 years.
Your head is in the clouds. Not that I don't agree with you on some points... I too was calling a spade a spade. ;)
25 days to go & we are not getting enough polls
WTF is going on ?
Mule Rider, smart? You are kidding...
I absolutely love this site! The "on the road" series has been fantastic. I'm also involved with prediction (weather) so I eat up the numbers and modeling stuff. Thank you!!
mc9cain,
Thanks.
Jen,
I will be better. But you will see less of me....maybe there's a correlation?! Ha.
Eric,
You. Nailed. It.
@mc9cain
Thanks
Sean, I am a big fan of the work you and Nate do, I visit every day. I think you should come to Oxford Ohio. The local organizer got a nice mention in yesterday's Huff Post (The New Organizers, Part 1: What's really behind Obama's ground game) and Butler and Warren counties are Must Wins for McCain. They probably have a great ground game in West Chester, Ohio. Oxford and Miami University will treat you better than those clowns at Belmont U.
what an amazing day
an Obama supporter called me "Smart"
David said: " Obama is slightly to the left of center. Clinton, was slightly right of center. What is frightening is the extreme right wing nutjobs think both of these people are "leftists". More stupidity from the right."
When Hillary started her career she wasn't exactly right of center.
It will be incredibly interesting to see whether power makes Obama more conservative. I am afraid it will stew him and boil all the hope out of him, as he has predicted.
His demeanor suggests this will happen. He is careful as a person and will capitulate on some issues. He already has on the death penalty. He already supports faith based initiatives.
At least he will make healthcare more affordable, promote green sources of energy, more discussion and cooperation with the world and perhaps more transparency in government. I doubt he will accomplish much more.
This is obviously guesswork since Obama has never been an executive and nobody knows how power will change him.
But he has predicted that DC would "boil all the hope out of him"
Let's see
Brad,
Underneath the f-bombs and a-holes, I do have a master's in economics, a tempered look at the political climate, a successful career, and an independent mind.
I may not have the opinions you'd like me to have, but that doesn't sell me short on an education.
"It's only third rate because of all the anger and hate-mongering, bullying and harassing of people not of an extreme liberal persuasion or the idiotic far right wingers who troll on here trying to disrupt the comments with bullshit."
I guess three would have been too much to ask. You really are pretty mellow today. It is quite nice. When you are not angry, you can be an interesting poster.
I check the site at work about three times a day also and way too much when I am off.
Anyone have any predictions on the Dodgers/Phillies game tonight?
Alaska Supreme Court won't halt Palin probe
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/09/alaska-supreme-court-wont-halt-palin-probe/
Yes Mason, I remember it well.
The inner DC suburbs came back big for Webb, then Allen caught up and passed him as the rest of the state reported, and I was up until God-knows-when to see if Webb could squeeze enough votes out of Fairfax and Richmond to re-take the lead. Good times.
If anything like that happens this year, it may well kill me.
Latest GOP complaint against the media.
http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/10/desperate_republicans_attack_newsweek_ov
Longtime reader, first-time commenter.
My friend turned me onto this site when I was despairing about all the noise generated by the media. I couldn't tell for real where we stood in terms of real polls, real numbers, and real chances.
I adore this site because it's not just another partisan site (I'll go to DailyKOS if I want that. ;) ) but is based on real numbers. I totally dig that.
I've been recommending this site like a madwoman to anyone and everyone who will listen, because I trust it to be impartial. If the news is good, I want to know. If not, I want to know that too.
And regardless if you're red, blue, purple, pink, multi-colored or None Of The Above, VOTE!!
Jen,
Sorry. Should've used bs or bullcrap.
I was making a point, though, and not cursing AT anyone, so that can't really count.
Mason:
Kelly-
The last places to report in 2006 were Fairfax Co. and Richmond City.
Yep. The highest population density takes the longest for everyone to report in. Webb didn't take the lead in the Senate race until after midnight, iirc (I'd been up since before 5am working the polls, so my memory may not be entirely accurate.)
It's possible there could be some problem in a rural area that could delay the count there, but chances are the Virginia count isn't going to shift toward McCain late in the process.
You are smart Real Joe, and funny. Your politics could use some fixin', but...
"I'm better at dropping a snark or two every day or so "
Why not post something intelligent? That is your problem.
The message section is third rate. Technically, visually, and in regards to usability.
Stop your mindless snarky posts and you will find the discourse is fantastic.
Brad,
No I'm not kidding. Intelligence and difference of opinion are two different things. MR admitted he got too emotional too often which reduced the quality of his posts.
In humans, the most intelligent people are often wired differently. In fact, that's why we are so lucky to have Sen. Obama as a candidate. Someone who is that much of an intellectual AND has such great political, analytical and social skills is next to impossible to find.
But back to Mule Rider, you guys are familiar with the term "static noise" in polls. That's some of what you get with Mule Rider. Don't let that make you miss what he's really saying.
This should be interesting.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/1008/Obama_camp_confirms_Were_buying_half_blocks.html#comments
Real Joe! I am incredibly succesful, taxes never got in my way!
"Sorry. Should've used bs or bullcrap.
I was making a point, though, and not cursing AT anyone, so that can't really count."
Don't be sorry; I was joking. Saying bullshit doesn't bother me. I don't think it counts either, unless you scream it in someone's face.
like Mule Rider i'm also educated & successful
one thing is stopping me from being more successful
taxes !!!
I wasn't one of the original 80, but I was pretty close. It's been a fun ride, and I'm sure it'll continue to be so going forward.
Great work, guys!
David,
I have tried to be....grrr. But when....grrr. Never mind.
I wonder how many of us here are non-US citizens. Having just moved to Atlanta from Australia, I find myself on here all the time. I second the motion that this is ruining my productivity!
Keep up the good work.
"When Hillary started her career she wasn't exactly right of center."
You may not be aware of a Clinton named Bill, he was President from 93-01, you may have heard of him.
He was slightly right of center.
Hmmm, smart guys can evaluate data, smart guys can have a civil discussion, smart tolerate difference, smart guys don't brag, smart guys show intellect in their posts, smart guys don't mistake screaming for argument.
MuleRider is not only not smart, he is close minded. Those two qulities NEVER go together.
ATTENTION: EVERYONE ORGASMING AND SAYING DUMBASS THINGS ABOUT THE "BRADLEY EFFECT". LOOK AT THIS:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx
"Obama purchasing 30 minutes of network airtime"
Brilliant move and just goes to show how much of a lead in cash that Obama holds. I wonder if McCain will try to retaliate and squander all of his cash with 30 mins of his own.
Isn't this sort of what Perot did? I was younger so I don't really remember, but didn't he have a lot of time on TV where he was explaining his economic policy and budget and stuff?
I have a feeling it's going to be his 30 minutes to rebut all of McCain's criticisms uncontested.
fred said...
Real Joe! I am incredibly succesful, taxes never got in my way!
the you must be working harder/smarter/luckier than me
good for you Fred
I can honestly say Obama is one of the smartest candidates for presidents - if not the smartest - in the last 50 or 100 years.
Back to polls.
Did the CNN MT poll include Ron Paul? I am still looking for a link....
Obam is very bright, but Clinton was pretty smart and Bush the first was also an incredibly broad and smart guy.
Ass Rider said,
"Underneath the f-bombs and a-holes, I do have a master's in economics, a tempered look at the political climate, a successful career, and an independent mind."
I call bull shit. Your posts are word for word from the hate-filled fang dripping mouth of Carl Rove.
A truly independent person doesn't seethe with so much hated. Don't deny that or I will be forced to quote your many hate-filled posts.
Yeah, but fred, in your opinion, I'm close-minded simply because I believe in God and want to teach my children that...never mind.
Believe what you want. That doesn't change who I am.
Wesley said...
eric, you're predicting presidential candidates for the next 30 years.
Your head is in the clouds. Not that I don't agree with you on some points... I too was calling a spade a spade. ;)
I'm not predicting 30 years of Dem Presidents, I'm just "dreaming". You know what, I think Schweitzer rocks, I may even like him as much or more than Obama, but I think he actually might be too centrist for this country rightnow or 8 years from now. We need a healthy dose of left wing politics to get this country where it needs to be. I don't assume for a second that this country will do what I suggest. I'm just hopeful an indicating what I think would be healthy. From a policy and platform perspective, I'd guess if I did an in-depth study, I'd have no problem with any of Teddy, Ike, Nixon, or Bush Sr.. I simply have a problem with everything the Neo-Cons stand for. If you're trying to fgiure my ideological slant, just take whatever you know about the NeoCons (Reagan/Bush Jr.), I'd be the polar opposite. Ok, actually that's going too far. Scale of 1-100, 1 being ultra-conservative, Reagna's a 10, Bush Jr. a 5, I'm about a 70.
yaramah z said...
I wonder how many of us here are non-US citizens. Having just moved to Atlanta from Australia, I find myself on here all the time. I second the motion that this is ruining my productivity!
as long as you are LEGAL you are welcomed here
if you are ILLEGAL get the fu** out of here
"We hope you'll come for the polls and stay for the analysis and original content long after the election ends."
Congradulations on your success, Nate. I know you've probably been asked this before but, what about the Bradley Effect ?
Or can someone else tell me if and how this is figured into these stats ?
- Marsha
Hey eric, it's all good. Let's just see how the next four years go.
I was not one of the original 80. I did not find it until immediately after the PA primary.
Fred- Mule Rider is being civil, would you do the same please? If he is trying to stop being a jerk, maybe we should give him a break? It is almost like you are baiting him.
Real Joe-
Why do assume people are illegal? Too much Fox News...
I remember when this site launched and the awesome graphs on dailykos.com during the primaries. We're all proud of you Nate. It's amazing how quickly you've become a trusted news source.
Real joe, you're an Aussie huh. You seem fairly sharp. I know you're Conservative. From your perspective, how do you think the rest of the free world looks at our politics right now. It seems to me that what much of the country thinks of Texas (I'm here), the rest of the world thinks of the US. That is, what the hell happened. I didn't realize how conservative you all were. What's wrong with America. In travelling the states, that's certianly the perspective all large cities have of Texas. i'd guess that's what everyone else thinks of the US right now. They're hoping that something changes. Obama represents that hope.
David, You can call bs all you want, but I do have a master's degree in economics and a successful career based on clearly subjective criteria.
As for having a tempered look at politics and an independent mind, I admit the measures are more objective, but I've never voted Republican and truly hold some more centrist and slightly left-of-center positions.
I don't know how that wouldn't make me at least somewhat independent. I'm in no way a neo-con, though.
As for the "tempered" part, I breathe fire when someone calls me an ignorant bigot for holding some slighlty conservative opinion. That grates on you, man, and I'm sorry that you can't see that. Instead of ignoring those kind of attacks, I've been defending myself a little too much. Not anymore. Say what you want about me. You don't know who I am, only the people around me. What your opinion about me is on a message board doesn't go very far, does it?
"Isn't this sort of what Perot did? I was younger so I don't really remember, but didn't he have a lot of time on TV where he was explaining his economic policy and budget and stuff?"
Perot bought way more than 30 minutes of air time.
It was full of charts and graphs, and was dumbed down extremely well. Problem is that it wasn't dumbed down enough nor did it have any gratuitous nudity or violence so most people seemed to tune out. This was even well before the massive dumbing down of America via "reality" TV and Dumbya.
If America was truly an intelligent and educated that sort of presentation would be the norm.
The ARG MT poll is complete junk, Ron Paul is on the ballot there and getting alot of support.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/MT08.html
I'm afraid you're wrong, fred. Neither intelligence nor education can cure pathological bigotry and delusion.
Give me the child and I will give you the man. Unless life conspires to break him, Mule Rider will always be Mule Rider. He was given over young, I guarantee it.
Who was more ideologically extreme?
A) Jimmy Carter
B) George Bush Jr.
I think the record is clear on who's attacking who today.
Easy.
B) George Bush Jr.
eric said...
Real joe, you're an Aussie huh
huh ?
no i'm not
Eric-
Both were too extrme to be president. Who is more exteeme based on objective criteria? McCain or OBama.
MCCAIN - based on objective criteria McCain is farther left than Obama is to the right. Nate even posted on this.
B
Just wanted to say I love the site and congratulations on the success!
What comes around goes around Mulie. You will need to post a long time without spite and crap to make up for all the names you have called people.
Oh, and I have both a doctorate in genetics and a law degree. I guess trhat makes me smart mulie? No, it means I am educated...smart is a different trait.
Eric,
I don't think that there will be another Republican President until the party ejects the extremists.
Wasn't it Sen. Goldwater that said something to the effect that it will be next to impossible to get right of the fundamentalists once they become entrenched in the party?
It will take someone like Goldwater to take back the party or lead a revolt leading to the republicans being completely controlled by Dobson and his fellow hatemongers. This would bring rise to a new party, perhaps the rational republican party?
The bottom line is that the Republicans will continue its decline until those extreme hatemongers that actually get excited about a total fundie retard like Palin.
Real Joe and Mule Rider,
What did you think of the debate and do you think that Palin and McCain are baiting the people who hate (those who hate Obama more than they like McCain)
fred said...
Real Joe-
Why do assume people are illegal? Too much Fox News...
20 million people are ILLEGALS
the number is growing everyday
First post, I've been lurking for weeks.
Hello!
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