Anti-incumbent sentiment is as strong as it has been all year, and that is working to the benefit of the Democrats in our latest Senate projections:
The Democrats have gained ground in several races this week, including North Carolina, where for the first time we have Kay Hagan listed as a favorite to unseat Elizabeth Dole, New Hampshire, where Jeanne Shaheen appears to have bounced back after some tight polling in mid-September, and Mississippi, where Rasmussen shows the race closing to two points. In addition, polling in Georgia and Texas indicates that those races may be viable pickup opportunities in a wave election, and even Nebraska has tightened a bit, with that race retaining a fairly high percentage of undecideds.
About the only good news the Republicans got this week was in Kentucky, where Rasmussen gives Mitch McConnell a 9-point lead, and is not quite ready to jump on the bandwagon and call that race a toss-up. Republican challengers in Iowa and Michigan have also picked up a bit of ground, suggesting that the anti-incumbent sentiment may to some extent be a two-way street. However, in neither case do the Republicans have a good candidate, leaving them poorly placed to take advantage of it (they remain at least 100-to-1 longshots in each state).
Overall, the Democrats now project as the favorites in seven seats currently held by the Republicans, with anywhere from 3-7 further GOP seats conceivably in play depending on how generous you want to be. This is the strongest position that they have been in all year, and it seems to be improving by the day.
10.04.2008
Senate Polling Update, 10/4
@ 8:50 PM
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147 comments
Still a typo in the date on the presidential graphic in the left column (10/3/2008 instead of 10/4/2008).
Nate,
Would you be willing to comment on the remarks made in the Politico today about the GOP getting scared about the prospect of a 60-seat majority for the Dems? In particular, I was struck by the quote from a McCain staffer who said that Dole has effectively lost and that "There’s no point in even counting the votes." I know that Dole seemed to be on shaky turf, but those are strong words from a Republican.
Dollars will get you donuts that people in moderate or liberal states will react badly to any republican candidate after Sarah Palin's attacks become an issue. I guess Sen. Smith and Sen. Coleman are getting thrown under the bus on the off chance that McCain can hold Indiana.
Why is North Carolina, which is listed as 57% for the Democrat listed as "Tilts Democrat" while Minnesota, which is listed as 57% for the Republican is listed as "Leans Republican?" Shouldn't they both be listed as leaners or tilters?
Also, this site as of yet hasn't even gotten into something as small as house races. When I was paying attention, the democrats were expected to pick up 20 seats in the house. Does anyone know if this has changed recently?
I am an independent but lean a little to towards the democratic side, with really only one view shared by the republic party, although I am not as extreme in it as most of them are.
Am I the only one that doesn't want to see a 60% majority, ever?
Given how badly Bush has screwed up our country, Obama will need 55 or so Senators and over 50% of the Congress, but a blank check is always bad.
Not that I think that Obama is as extreme towards the left as Bush is on the right, in fact I think he is very centrist. Even in this dark times, and even though Obama has the ethics and morals to make the right decision, it is always good to have a fairly strong counter opinion.
I fear that the religious right has destroyed the republican party and that we will become a one party state. Perhaps someone in the mold of Goldwater will branch away from the republican party(making it an extremist regional party) and form a right leaning party that has intelligence and ethics.
Of course, I wish that the founding fathers would have come down on the side of banning all political parties instead of basically punting. I consider that their biggest failure.
Now that there is a near possibility that dem's get 60 seats. Will the GOP be more motivated to block legislation in the senate, if the dem's fail to win 60 seats?
Thanks for fixing the MN/NC discrepancy. You guys are fast...
FYI,
There is a possibility that Obama's ground game and organizinig efforts will translate in a dominant campaign that yield an extra 2-5%. It wouldn't surprise me at all if what started with Howard Dean and is 100X as effective with a far more charismatic leader who started out as a community organizer will win a landslide by tipping all of the swing states blue because of this. It's truly remarkable what they're doing.
"Also, this site as of yet hasn't even gotten into something as small as house races."
Nate said in a recent interview that after this election he was hoping to tackle House races for 2010.
Nate,
Do you factor in population of a state when categorizing a state as toss-up, lean, likely, or safe? A six-point lead in Texas is a lot bigger than a six point lead in Alaska.
"Am I the only one that doesn't want to see a 60% majority, ever?"
You may well be. Republicans reject cloture in lockstep on pretty much anything they want. Bush could kill a baby on live tv and he could not possibly be impeached with the Republicans we have in there. Every kind of potential sensible health care reform, energy policy, etc is dead in the water without 60 votes, and no matter how good a lot of stuff like that just can't get them with 49 Republicans.
With sensible intelligent parties that would keep each other in check, I feel your sentiment. But that's not the situation we have.
"will win a landslide by tipping all of the swing states blue because of this."
Eric,
I agree that the possibility of an electoral landslide due to favorable conditions and an incredibly well organized ground game now must be taken seriously. An interesting question is whether this is likely to spill over and help push the Democrats over the hump to get 60 seats. I doubt it, personally, but it now seems like a distinct possibility. Of course, some major event could occur and swing the momentum right back to McCain.
I'm a Georgian and have been following Georgia politics for quite a while. I do not claim to be an expert, but I will say, fairly deffinitively, that there is no one on God's green earth that Obama out polls Jim Martin in Georgia which your current model seems to suggest.
Your model seems to place a heavy emphasis on details outside of polling - but I'm not sure you take in much history. I can't say for certain, but I'm confident that a Democratic presidential candidate has only very rarely outpolled a Democratic senatoral candidate in Georgia since 1876 in a national election. (this probably happened in 2004 - but given the local dynamics of that race I see it as more of an outlier)
For what it is worth, most people down here seem to believe that if Obama pulls the 46%-47% you predict he will in Georgia then Jim Martin will win. The logic being that there will be almost no one who votes for Obama/Chambliss, but a fair number who will vote McCain/Martin.
Your thoughts?
The AA turnout is the untold story to me, reports of early voting showing 13% more blacks than '04 in GA - who vote dem across the board - is huge if it occurs across the country. Those could be huge coattails!
Adam,
I think you are right. I have been told that I am too much of an idealist for my own good.
"Am I the only one that doesn't want to see a 60% majority, ever?"
I want the 60 seat majority. With the current situation nothing gets done.
We used to have a system where repubs and dems worked together more and got things done. We have too much that needs legislative help to continue with the repubs not working to compromise but using rules to stop bills just to make the democrats look bad.
With a 60 seat majority, there will still be lots of conservative and centrist senators in those 60 seats. People who represent centrist and conservative states and who want to be re-elected. There will be balance.
Dave,
you said:
"Am I the only one that doesn't want to see a 60% majority, ever?"
Even at 60% corralling the Dems will be like herding cats. The Republicans for the most part vote in lock-step. The blue dog dems frequently vote with the republicans.
Hey pollsters, give us more numbers on MN and OR! (I think we know where NC is now.)
Those are both excellent points ed and eve. I do realize that the democratic party has a time honored tradition of dissent.
As incompetent and destructive as the republican party has been, an effective one party state makes me nervous.
At least Rove isn't likely to get his wet dream of total republican rule for decades. /shudder
Aloha, David...
It may be that 60% of the legislature in the hands of one party could be a bad thing. On the other hand, I remember back to the primaries (a million years ago) when a lot of people thought Obama was not left enough. But he seemed then to my chagrin (when I was a Hillary woman) to really be the compromiser he says he is, who wants to reach out to all sides. If this campaign has shown anything, it is that he keeps his eye on the prize, and is not distracted by emotion. His insiders say that one reason there are no leaks and ever=thing is so well-controlled is that he listens to everyone, and respects their opinions, before he decides. So even the "losers" feel that their positions are valued. It is possible, just possible, that he might fulfill that promise in the white house. But in any event, he is certainly better than any of the alternatives right now.
Nate,
Why haven't you addressed the Barr/Nader issue in the polls? Who are they going to take votes away from in which state?
Eric said...
If Obama has a mandate with 60 senators and a landslide electorate. What will he od with it?
Universal Healthcare: Check
End Iraq War: Check
Create Kennedy to the moon like Energy policy : Check
Deal with Darfur and Afg/Pak: Check
Educational opportunites for everyone: Check
Oil ompanies and rich pay more taxes, everyone else pay less: Check
Infrastructure focus: Check
Restored standing in the world: Check
Mandate for Dems: PRICELESS
Definitely, I think Obama is the right person and the right time.
Forget Barr and Nader - how much does Paul take in MT and elsewhere? Is he on the ballot elsewhere?
It is just this balance of power in Congress that has enabled Bush to simply ignore them and rule like a despot. Question is, will the Dems in Congress act with moral integrity to stand up for the people or will they to sucomb to the call of the coporate $s. Let's hope the K Street project has been crippled if not broken. That's the change I'm looking for from Obama. Take down the 'Congress for Sale' sign.
McConnell (R-KY) has refused to debate the challenger Lundsford in an upcoming debate claiming scheduling conflicts despite the debate being announced back in July. Would something like this have an effect on feelings toward McConnell and will it tip the electorate more towards Lundsford?
There is one overlooked aspect on these 60 senate seats and suprisingly on the presidential election, too. In the next 2 years there will be certainly some vacancies on the US Supreme Court and chances are that these vacancies will be liberal judges. The current spectrum on the court is 4 liberals, 1 swing voter (Kennedy), and 4 conservatives (three of them very young), so if these vacancies won't be filled up with liberal or at least independent judges, anything can happen. We can see Roe v. Wade getting overturned and even maybe Miranda v. Arizona
taylor,
I think it would. I live in Washington State and am not familiar with McConnell.
A debate is a job interview. Not showing up for the interview hurts. I think it is the first thing that damaged Palin the other day(refusing to respond to questions).
Lying Zogby! Announced yesterday their interactive poll today would be tied, 56=56. NOPE! Released as 48-44! This just shows how crappy their interactive polling model is. Not ready for prime time.
The more I hear Frits Wentzel the more I think Zogby should fire him.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1570
I agree in principle that most of the time a split govt is good. Some times call for drastic measures though. This is one of those times. We've had RepubliCON rule for 28 years. They've set our country back a whole lot. It needs fixin'. See New Deal circa 1933. This country needs a shakeup. Obama has the discipline to not go crazy with it too. It would be very healthy for our country to get a dose of full Democrat rule for a little while.
Sorry, tied 45-45. Announced drive time yesterday on POTUS XM 130 and discussed asa huge negative for BO. Fritz = liar.
Y'all sure have a lot of idealistic faith in Obama. I turned up the sound on my computer to see if I could hear the children singing Obama's praises.
Here's a comment from Deutche-Welle you might appreciate:
"To me it is scary seeing young children praising a political leader in a seemingly professionally choreographed setting. At first, I thought, perhaps as a German I am overly sensitive to things like this. After all, what's wrong with some kids singing about a politician they like? So I am glad that I am not the only one who has a problem with this video. Ben Smith and Mo Rocca have interesting takes on the issue.
But beyond its creepiness factor, what are we to deduct from this video? Assuming Obama becomes president, a lot of his supporters with expectations like those expressed in the video are bound to be bitterly disappointed, because those expectations are impossible to be fulfilled by a president."
Yes, president, not Messiah.
David,
If you support Obama's announced policies, there's no reason not to want the Democrats to pick up 60+ Senate seats as well. Otherwise, Republicans can and likely will mount a guerilla campaign to prevent enactment of Obama's legislative agenda.
Personally, I also want to see the Republican party crushed and burned. I consider myself a pragmatist and independent but despise today's Republican party. If they are destroyed electorally, hopefully a less corrupt, less corporate beholden party can rise from the ashes. America needs a strong two parties, but I don't think we can get there until the current Republican party is wiped out.
Jeeze - more repub crap on a non-isssue. Got something other than hate scred-crow?
McConnell voted for the bailout. Democrats will forgive their senators and representatives, Republicans won´t. I guess he´ll take a dive in the polls.
I am sure that there´ll be coattail effects that affect turnout. That´s why Franken will win for sure, Merkley, too, of course. Obama/Hagen shows the incredible democratic trend in North Carolina. I am not quite sure about Mississippi, but we´re still a month away from election day and a lot of things can happen.
Georgia will be interesting. That´s the kick-Lieberman seat.
Scott Kleeb's campaign ads in Nebraska have been by far the most enjoyable this election year. He's definately been the best marketed candidate of '08. I know it's a bit of a longshot, but I hope the guy wins.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=scott+kleeb&search_type=
Another Mike said...
David,
If you support Obama's announced policies, there's no reason not to want the Democrats to pick up 60+ Senate seats as well. Otherwise, Republicans can and likely will mount a guerilla campaign to prevent enactment of Obama's legislative agenda.
Personally, I also want to see the Republican party crushed and burned. I consider myself a pragmatist and independent but despise today's Republican party. If they are destroyed electorally, hopefully a less corrupt, less corporate beholden party can rise from the ashes. America needs a strong two parties, but I don't think we can get there until the current Republican party is wiped out.
WOW, you and me think exactly alike. There's got to be some millions of us out there. I'd also mention Obama won't abuse the power.
The Zogby poll was O48.4 - M43.8, a difference of 4.6%.
Fred, so anything not written by an Obama acolyte is hate?
Oh yeah, that's how lefty's shut down free speech- by yelling Hate! Hate!
Meanwhile your buddy Another Mike writes:
"but I don't think we can get there until the current Republican party is wiped out."
I feel the love.
"Assuming Obama becomes president, a lot of his supporters with expectations like those expressed in the video are bound to be bitterly disappointed, because those expectations are impossible to be fulfilled by a president."
Probably. Nobody's perfect. I was disappointed by his FISA vote, and I'm disappointed by his stances on gay marraige and ethanol.
That doesn't mean he's not much, much better than the current occupant and challenger. You'll have to go to a little more trouble if you're trying to change any votes.
If you buy an interactive poll annnounced yesterday as 45-45 and now is so good it is reported in tenths!
Laughable. I hope Nate does not use it.
The Scarecrow said ""To me it is scary seeing young children praising a political leader in a seemingly professionally choreographed setting."
Not even close to the horror experienced when watching "The McCain Girls" I assure you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaP9eiWuX3s
"If you support Obama's announced policies, there's no reason not to want the Democrats to pick up 60+ Senate seats as well."
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
How many politicians started out with good intentions only too get corrupted.
Balance is needed, even though the republican party is a total mess right now.
Sacred-crow-
Got a point? How about an agenda? Oh ya, you guys are not running on issues, just fear.
Obama scares me cuz kids like him. Is that your talking point?
billy-joyner,
I think the statistical model doesn't require Obama to outperform Martin in order to win Georgia's EVs. It apparently assumes the Bob Barr will be robust enough in that state to take it away from McCain and hand it to Obama, if he polls close to 50%.
What are seeing about Barr within the state?
"Probably. Nobody's perfect. I was disappointed by his FISA vote, and I'm disappointed by his stances on gay marraige and ethanol."
Exactly!
If someone is 100% happy with any politicians stands, then that person has been totally assimilated by ideology.
The FISA vote really makes me worry. I hope he just did it to avoid hurting himself, and will go after these criminals like Dean suggested on Olberman's show.
Obama needs to stump for Franken - Hit the Xcel Energy Center together, do a couple of campaign ads, whatever it takes.
Meh, even if the Dems don't get 60 seats this year, they will for certain in 2010.
"What are seeing about Barr within the state?"
Not a whole lot. His candidacy is close to invisible here unless you're a committed libertarian. Most disaffected Republicans I know here are either very reluctantly voting Obama or not interested in voting. I expect Barr to be under 2% in GA.
As for Martin v Obama, I notice the projection is -3 for Obama and -15 for Martin. My guess is this is because Nate weighs fundraising very heavily in his regression, and since Martin won the nomination so late and it was an under the radar race he's raised little.
"If you buy an interactive poll annnounced yesterday as 45-45 and now is so good it is reported in tenths!"
They report the numbers in tenths but round it in the rest of the article to 48-44, so it looks like a 4 pt lead instead of 4.6 (rounded to 5!). Oh the difference a tenth can make in a close election.
I think the divided government myth has led to the "do nothing" senate meme. And I don´t see what the current GOP could contribute to the country for the next 2 years. It is bankrupt of ideas at the moment.
The Dems will get their 60 seats (maybe 61-62) and the only scary thing is the possibility of a democratic 2/3rd majority by 2010 (the Democrats could get the seats of Brownback, Bunning, Martinez, McCain, Murkowski, Specter, Vitter and maybe Voinovich).
David said...
"If you support Obama's announced policies, there's no reason not to want the Democrats to pick up 60+ Senate seats as well."
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
How many politicians started out with good intentions only too get corrupted.
Balance is needed, even though the republican party is a total mess right now.
They would not abuse "absolute" power the way the RepubliCONs have. They'll fix what's broken and put they're stamp on the future if they can. The only folks that would argue the FDR regime's policies were bad are Conservatives. That group needs to change or be removed from government. They've been horrible for this country. Starting with Reagan by the way. Now we have all of the bad parts of Reagan and none of the good, those bad parts are on roids. Got to go!
He was right on FISA, he is right on ethanol. The left needs to get off their mountrain top and get with an agenda that can work. This is why repubs are united, and dems are not. Dems have pragamitists and left wing idealogues. Repubs idealogues are of the religious type and dont get in the way of governing too much.
LOL yeah, if I was McCain I'd start worrying about my senate seat!
Republicans are bound together by stupidity. That's why they have such a bigger solid base than Democrats.
This country really does need serious change. It's not just a slogan. And you can't have serious change with gridlock. So I think now is one of the few times when a 60-seat majority could be very good for the country, not just a party. In the next two years we can implement major economic and healthcare reforms that we need done NOW. Voters can even things out a bit in 2010 if necessary.
Also, I suppose if I'm calling for more MN and OR Senate polling, I should toss in MS and KY, too.
"Meh, even if the Dems don't get 60 seats this year, they will for certain in 2010."
That was the weirdest part of the article, where the Republican guy said they were in a good position to pick up 3-5 seats in 2010. What are they seeing I'm not? It looks like for potential vulnerabilities:
R: McCain, Murkowski, Thune, Grassley, Bond, Vitter, Martinez, Isakson, Burr, Voinovich, Specter, Gregg
D: Inouye, Wyden, Murray, Salazar
Is that just spin? If anything 2010 looks as good as this year assuming party ID remains the same.
freddie, my point is I posted an appropriate comment and you termed it hate speech.
So, you're not far from a Nazi, but I didn't really expect you to get the association.
You sound pretty angry. And immature.
Why didn't you call this hate speech "Personally, I also want to see the Republican party crushed and burned."
Luckily, the republican party in it's current form will cease to exist in 20-30 years. I can't wait to see it. Republican ideals are dying with the last generations that still have them.
OMG. I just finished reading the comments on "Today's Polls, 10/3."
Summary: Mule Rider reveals he's a---get this---fundamentalist Christian, denying the pillars of modern cosmology and biology in the process.
MULE RIDER. With this context, everything he writes is ten times funnier. I am, literally, laughing uncontrollably right now. Amazing.
It is so, so unfortunate that he has left the site. Let's hope he was lying, like that time he made "high six figures" on a single WMT trade.
Priceless.
That was the weirdest part of the article, where the Republican guy
That's why.
"If you buy an interactive poll annnounced yesterday as 45-45 and now is so good it is reported in tenths!"
Can we start putting poll in quotes when talking about Zogby Interactive? It's such rubbish that calling it a poll demeans other, more real polls. So I say that the latest "poll" from Zogby is pretty much irrelevant.
Say it with me everybody....
Don't tease us about Indiana! Sean, give us the straight dope!
I am immature? You are kidding...
You post something from a german newspaper that some guy is scared by a video not produced by, or endorsed by, the Obama campaign to try to spread the new Palin announced fear campaign because you can't win on facts, so you use these psedo-facts and innuendo to try to get us to change our votes. It is laughable.
This has probably been asked and answered a hundred times, but who is likely to get their seats if Obama/Biden win? Same for McCain.
"He was right on FISA, he is right on ethanol. The left needs to get off their mountrain top and get with an agenda that can work. This is why repubs are united, and dems are not."
I don't *want* to be part of a rigid ideological party, and Democrats will stop getting my vote if they become that. On many issues there aren't clear-cut right and wrong stances like Republicans like to pretend, and I want thoughtful discussion rather than just straight party line votes.
Not to mention the Republicans' dogmatic approach is turning off moderates in droves and quickly making them a regional-only party. I'm not sure that's the model you want to emulate.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
-----------
Never a truer aphorism. But, having 60 Dem senators helps ensure Obama gets his announced legislative agenda through. Senators absolutely should NOT act as rubber stamps and appendages of the administration. There's no evidence the Democrats would act that way for Obama, so I hardly see the Dems having 60 seats as handing absolute power to Obama. I also don't see it as a permanent condition. Any Dem senator in a red or purple states who acted as a rubber stamp for a radical or power hungry Obama would and should face a losing reelection.
couchpotatoxxx12 :
Republicans are bound together by stupidity. That's why they have such a bigger solid base than Democrats.
Sorry, but:
In 5,566 interviews with registered voters conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press during the first two months of 2008, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, and just 27% as Republicans.
Stupid democrat!
[oops I called name, sorry, I meant ignorant. if I say stupid fred will call it hate speech]
Biden likely go to his son Beau
Obama goes to Rahm Emanuel or the gov himself, with ahot to Jese Jackson, Jr. (Jesse is unlikely)
McCain will lose so I haven't looked into it
Micah,
I've heard either Rahm Emanuel or Jesse Jackson Jr. for Obama, and probably Beau Biden in Delaware. No idea about McCain since Arizona has a Democratic governor.
scarecrow is bragging about his party imploding! LOL!
It's nice to see North Carolina lean Dem. I think if Dole goes down the Dems will have at least 58 seats, which will be close enough to filibuster proof margin on many issues.
Obama up 8.25 in Tracking Poll Composite
More on the Bailout Fallout
Scarecrow, you spread a Hitler analogy. That is not an "appropriate comment." Surely you've heard of Godwin's law. The government isn't indoctrinating children into supporting a politician. Politically active parents are simply getting their kids involved, something that's been done forever by supporters of many parties.
So to summarize, Obama isn't Hitler, and your comment isn't appropriate.
Why didn't you call this hate speech "Personally, I also want to see the Republican party crushed and burned."
------------------
Because it is directed at an idea, not people?
Adam-
You are correct, I want a thoughful arty, but the Kucinich wing of the dems is just as out of touch as the evangelicals, IMO.
fred said:
Obama goes to Rahm Emanuel or the gov himself, with ahot to Jese Jackson, Jr. (Jesse is unlikely)
---
Please not Blagojevich! Well, it wouldn't matter anyway, since he'll be cellmates with the last governor in about 3 months anyway...
For McCain, I thought I read somewhere that his replacement has to be a member of his party. Isn't there a moderate Repub congressman down there who recently retired? I though he was mentioned as a possibility.
The theory is Blago will appoint himself against everyone else's wishes. Not sure he has the guts, the DC types want Rahm so he likely gets it.
I can't imagine Blago would be that daft. He'd be primaried out in a landslide in two years.
"He was right on FISA, he is right on ethanol. The left needs to get off their mountrain top and get with an agenda that can work."
FISA is a matter of opinion. Personally I am of the rather radical "give me liberty or give me death" opinion here. In other words, if I die in a terrorist attack because we gave a fair trial to one terrorist in addition to five innocent men and he somehow got off, or because we didn't blanket spy on the phone calls of the citizenry without a warrant, I'm fine with that. Others are willing to sacrifice some limited freedoms for some limited security, and I respect that point of view, but it isn't the only "pragmatic" one. For example, there is a wealth of evidence that the illegal use of torture is in fact less effective than comparable legal methods. Also, I have yet to see any concrete evidence that the revoking of habeus corpus or the use of warrantless wiretapping have really helped this country's security.
Well, Blago is a big enough douche to do it. Rahm is a total badass, though. Just watching the no-BS face he had on behind Pelosi at the self-congrats press conference made me laugh.
Yup, but Blago's career is over in any case. Don't senators of any term get a nice retirement?
The Scarecrow said ""To me it is scary seeing young children praising a political leader in a seemingly professionally choreographed setting."
----------------
I'd be concerned if the government or even the Democratic party was promoting this. But parents? Who cares. Whatever happened to letting parents raise their children as they see fit, including their education and moral training?
epynomous-
I am all for stopping anything like the spying in the Bush administration going forward, I just want us to sue the right people - the members of the Bush administration that did it and not the telecoms who had a gun to their head.
On the subject of anti-incumbent feeling, I just discovered a really interesting website:
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/
Doubtless some of you already know about this, but for those who don't, take a look.
They're basically trying to do a similar sort of thing as Nate is, but rather than just averaging polls, they are averaging together polls, predictions from experts, the Iowa Electronic Markets, and a dozen or so different predictive models based on things like how the economy is doing that measure causes of anti-incumbent feeling.
Their current prediction: Obama wins by 4.6%.
You are correct, I want a thoughful arty, but the Kucinich wing of the dems is just as out of touch as the evangelicals, IMO.
--------------
But WAY less numerous and influential.
The telcos didn't have a gun to their head. Qwest refused without a proper warrant, nothing bad happened to them.
The telcos that went on board did so willingly and should pay a steep price. Of course, they are likely to get off, just like Bush and Cheney will.
Justice disappeared long ago.
another mike-
true.
I suppose this means that "change" is a message that resonates throughout the ticket...
RCP is giving BO 264 EVs tonight. Amazing. They have added MO to tossup. 8 states for McCain to defend, he needs them all!
Another Mike,
Agreed, parents should be able to do all those things.
That would include not allowing a public school nurse to take my 14yo daughter to get an abortion without my permission, right?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
In what state and school district could a school nurse take any child for a medicval procedure? You are a fear monger...
I am all for stopping anything like the spying in the Bush administration going forward, I just want us to sue the right people - the members of the Bush administration that did it and not the telecoms who had a gun to their head.
---------------
I don't think the telecoms had a gun to their head. At least one did not go along with it. Besides, I think it is an extremely dangerous mentality to excuse breaking the law because the president told you to do so.
Democrats can pick up between 8-10 seats in the US Senate.
1)Virginia(Warner-D)
2)New Mexico(Tom Udall-D)
3)Colorado(Mark Udall-D)
4)New Hampshire(Shaheen-D)
5)Alaska(Begich-D)
6)North Carolina(Hagan-D)
7)Oregon(Merkley-D)
8)Minnesota(Franken-D)
9)Mississippi(Musgrove-D)
10)Kentucky(Lunsford-D)
11)Georgia(Martin-D)
"That would include not allowing a public school nurse to take my 14yo daughter to get an abortion without my permission, right?"
Could you ask a rational or relevant question?
another mike-
I don't disagree really. But I am a lawyer and I am just not sure how letting the tort lawyers lose helps us. I think they are appropriately chastised, I guess I am not so worried about it happening again. Masybe I am naive, I am also practical that losing the tort guys does nothing to reduce the chances of it happening going forward.
"That would include not allowing a public school nurse to take my 14yo daughter to get an abortion without my permission, right?"
Yes, public school nurses should not have the right to do such a major procedure (or any procedure really) without parental approval.
Does this actually happen? I've never heard of such a thing. I can't imagine it's legal.
The point that's actually controversial is if said 14-year-old gets to a doctor on her own, whether the doctor should have to notify the parent. That's a borderline issue for me. If a parent is rabidly anti-abortion and the girl really doesn't want the baby she's going to end up doing it herself at potentially great risk to herself. But, she's a minor. I lean towards allowing it, but the focus should be on education so she's not in that situation in the first place.
Agreed, parents should be able to do all those things.
That would include not allowing a public school nurse to take my 14yo daughter to get an abortion without my permission, right?
-------------
I favor parental notification laws. I'm not sure I'd go so far as to require parental consent. I'd have to give that some considered thought.
adam-
It does not happen as it would open the school to a lawsuit if something went wrong. School nurses don't even hand out aspirin in most states.
Scared-crow is lying.
I asked this on the second most recent thread, but got few responses given the atmosphere.
Even though it has not been a campaign issue(electoral suicide) does anyone else think there is a chance that Obama will address the unfair drug laws?
The minority community in particular have been hit hard by prohibition.
I am mainly talking about marijuana which was banned due to corporate desires.
No, I don't smoke pot or take any other drug. I just think that is pas time to reassess one of the more damaging policies of the 20th century.
Obama might but he will do it through some type of reform of the legal system. Spin it as saving money in prisons as they are full of small timers and forcing us to release felons.
"does anyone else think there is a chance that Obama will address the unfair drug laws?"
When asked about it he said he doesn't want the feds using resources on raiding individuals. My gut feeling is that like gay marraige, this is an area where he's far more progressive than he's allowed to let on because he has to win moderate voters, and he'll do whatever he thinks the political climate allows. The war on drugs is over. Drugs won. That's a truly lunatic set of policies that I can't believe are still in place.
Fred,
Allowing suits would have done at least two things. First, discovery would have allowed the public to find out what was really happening instead of this being swept under the rug (likely to cover up the complicity of people like Reid and Pelosi). Two, punishment for illegal acts, even if only in monetary form, acts as a deterrent to future wrongdoing, just like punishment for criminals acts as a general deterrent for other criminals.
To the first point, the only relevant discovery i need is from Cheney's and Rove's destroyed RNC email accounts.
To the second point, I doubt this will happen, the memory is fresh for these companies.
I think the major FISA point is this:
Obama had no way of knowing which direction world events would turn. If he voted against FISA and terrorism took the spotlight in the campaign, he would be relentlessly attacked as being weak on terrorists, unready to lead in a crisis, not strong enough, etc. His vote reduced the effectiveness of that line of attack, and also showed he's not in lockstep with "liberal blogs". It's hard to see the benefit of taking a potential negative off the table, but it was probably the right thing for him to do, even for those of us who don't agree with the principle.
Even though it has not been a campaign issue(electoral suicide) does anyone else think there is a chance that Obama will address the unfair drug laws?
--------------------
If you're talking about lessening the federal law enforcement focus on drug crimes, especially for users and small time dealers, or letting states decriminalize marijuana without threatening them with loss of funding, then I could easily see that happening. But, no way politically Obama could push decriminalization of marijuana. There's just not enough political support and it doesn't seem like an issue Obama cares enough about to spend his political capital on.
Yes, FISA was a political decision for Obama. He needed to move to the center and this helped him do it.
I've got a Martin sign in my Atlanta yard, and I think it is as quixotic a presence as the Kerry sticker on my car four years ago. Chambliss will win, dammit.
But if Martin does well enough to coax a Georgia Democratic heavyweight into the next statewide race, well . . .
"But, no way politically Obama could push decriminalization of marijuana. There's just not enough political support and it doesn't seem like an issue Obama cares enough about to spend his political capital on."
Right. I see the limit of viable action to be moving it from Schedule I to III, which would effectively deal with the ridiculous sentences.
I was really pissed at Obama for the FISA vote. I don't disagree that it may have been smart politically. But, sometimes you got to plant your flag and the rule of law, privacy, and balance of powers are important enough that I think he should have taken a stand. I think he'll be a great president, but I don't think he's perfect.
FISA was not worth risking another right wing appointee to the Supreme Court. Not even close.
OK, goodnight to all. Enjoyed the conversation
Exclusive: Obama to preempt McCain assault
By: Mike Allen
October 4, 2008 10:51 PM EST
Branding his opponent as “erratic in a crisis,” Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is preempting plans by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to portray him as having sinister connections to controversial Chicagoans.
Obama officials call it political jujitsu – turning the attacks back on the attacker.
McCain officials had said early in the weekend that they plan to begin advertising after Tuesday’s debate that will tie Obama to convicted money launderer Tony Rezko and former Weathermen radical William Ayers.
But Obama isn’t waiting to respond. His campaign is going up Monday on national cable stations with a scathing ad saying: “Three quarters of a million jobs lost this year. Our financial system in turmoil. And John McCain? Erratic in a crisis. Out of touch on the economy. No wonder his campaign wants to change the subject.
“Turn the page on the financial crisis by launching dishonorable, dishonest ‘assaults’ against Barack Obama. Struggling families can't turn the page on this economy, and we can't afford another president who is this out of touch.”
Then Obama says: “I'm Barack Obama and I approved this message.”
Good night, I am out to.
Sleep well, dream of a country with an Obama administration.
Here is a URL to what fred posted:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14283.html
Of course McCain put his foot down on going after Wright. Palin is rather vulnerable in this area.
Attacks McCain lost picking Palin:
1. I am a safe choice
2. experience
3. rational and thoughtful decision making
4. Attacking Wright
1,2, and 3 were unbelievable but the low information voter was buying into it. 4 is just silly. I am not black, but I can understand the sentiment behind some of the sermons that have been reported.
Given that from reports I have read Ayers is considered a model citizen today and respected across the board in Chicago, is this likely to change anyone's mind. Not too mention it is old news.
Rezko seems like pure innuendo.
I almost feel sorry that all McCain has left is misleading negative ads, almost. His overall perception of being a straight shooter is so far in the crapper, the only thing that will likely result is taking more hits on his numbers.
At some point, doesn't a viable candidate have to offer some thoughtful ideas on how to solve the problems we face?
Maybe he thinks that if he can't win, he can make his loss a massive achievement that will be remembered through the ages.
Re: Obama's Senate seat; Blago can't appoint himself, right, he'd have to resign and have his Lt. Gov/the new Gov give it to him? Can't see that happening.
Some historical perspective:
Obama reached 50% and is up 8% in the Gallup tracking poll today. Getting to these numbers in October is significant according to Mark Bluementhal of pollster.com.
Since modern polling began in 1936, 16 candidates have hit 50% in an October Gallup. 14 have gone on to win. The exceptions were Gore and Dewey.
Only one candidate with an 8% lead or greater in an October Gallup has lost: Gore. (You can argue whether Gore really counts as a loss, but lets not go there). Thirteen other candidates with 8% October leads won, including Bush/2000.
(In 2000, both candidates hit this target. Gore had 50% and was up by 8 in early October, just before the debates. By late October, Bush was on top by the same amount)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/50_8_and_october_some_historic.php
Per the executive / Legislative split discussion:
http://money.cnn.com/2002/11/07/markets/republican_history/index.htm
"During the 28 years of control by a Republican president and a Democratic Congress, the Dow rose an average of 6.3 percent. Incorporating a 4.1 percent inflation rate, the real rate of return comes in at 2.1 percent , or 0.9 percent better than a with Republican president and Republican Congress majority, according to Ned Davis Research.
Control of Congress and the presidency by Democrats has historically yielded a 6.6 percent average gain on the Dow but a 4.8 percent inflation rate -- meaning the real rate of return falls to 1.8 percent, below those years when Republicans led the executive branch and Democrats the legislative.
But coming in above all, on average, are the few years when a Democratic president was forced to work with a Republican Congress -- spanning the administrations of Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman and the last six years of Bill Clinton's presidency. During these years, the market gained 9.6 percent and the inflation rate was 3.8 percent, for a 5.8 real rate of return. "
"Am I the only one that doesn't want to see a 60% majority, ever?"
Well, I'd see the logic in this, if the Democrats where the party one the right side and there was a good, solid liberal party in this country. You know, sort like all of Europe.
But given that this is a two party country with Republicans and Democrats, I'd like to see the Dems own 100% of the Senate.
The Elon poll in NC is a poll of North Carolina residents (without regard to whether or not they are registered). Is this reflected in the weighting scheme somehow?
Nate,
The projection for the Minnesota Senate race seems to discount Dean Barkley who is now polling in the high teens. Your projection is Coleman 49 Franken 47.8, the margin might be right but I doubt either gets near 50% of the vote.
watch the REAL VP debate:
the video of the VP Debate - SNL style on 10/4/08 Sat. night... with Queen Latifah as Gwen Ifill moderating, Tina Fey as Sarah Palin & also a Joe Biden:
@ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/04/tina-fey-as-sarah-palin-i_n_131964.html
I'd love to see a little house data before 2010, but at least I have electoral-vote.com for that.
Also, I find it confusing that the "seats controlled" percentages on the right include Sanders & Lieberman, but the "Seats Held" projection at the top left doesn't.
Also... seriously. He spoke at the RNC. Can we please take Lieberman out of the presumed Democratic Caucus?
Regarding the US House of Representatives- We will be picking up at least 25 seats in the US House.
We pick up Open Republican US House Seats in
1)Arizona 1(Kirkpatrick-D)
2)Illinios-11(Halverson-D)
3)Minnesota-3(Madia-D)
4)New Jersey-3(Adler-D)
5)New Jersey-7(Stender-D)
6)New Mexico-1(Heinrich-D)
7)New York-13(McMahon-D)
8)New York-25(Maffei-D)
9)Ohio-15(Kilroy-D)
10)Ohio-16(Boccieri-D)
11)Virginia-11(Davis-D)
Battleground Districts.
1)Connecticut-4(Shays-R vs Himes-D)
2)Illinios-10(Kirk-R vs Seals-D)
3)Michigan-7(Walberg-R vs Schauer-D)
4)Michigan-9(Knollenberg-R vs Peters-D)
5)Nevada-3(Porter-R vs Titus-D)
6)North Carolina-8(Hayes-R vs Kissell-D)
7)Ohio-1(Chabot-R vs Dreihaus-D)
We get rid of corrupt or controversial republicans.
1)Alaska-(Young-R) Berkowitz
2)Colorado-4(Musgrave-R) Markey
3)Florida-8(Keller-R)Grayson
4)Florida-24(Feeney-R)Kosmas
NKP
FL 24 is starting to look good for Kosmas to knock off Feeney from here on the ground in that district !!!
Kosmas & the DNC are both running effective TV ads slamming Feeney - and local DEM HQ is hopping.
VYNCE
the SENATE SEATS HELD graphic at the top left shows a smallpiece of the 'pie' representing the 2 IND seats, including Liebermiester...
Nate's projection #'s there are just for the real DEM & GOP seats so they total 98 combined rather than 100
FWIW
DCM in FL.
I did mention that Feeney is going to lose. He reminds me of the corrupt former members of Congress who lost their seats in 2006. Richard Pombo- CA, John Sweeney-NY.
Just a couple of quick lines on Senate matters. I am one of those who think that aiming for 60 seats is dangerous for the Dems, I have written about this in various threads before. But I do think there should be enough reasonable, moderate Republicans around in the senate to get some things done. (Do you really wanna be the Senator who blocks healthcare coverage or troop withdrawal from Iraq?)
On the Illinois seat, I think given Blagojevich's Rezko problem he wouldn't be the right guy to fill Obama's seat. (I know McCain trolls will point out the irony there, but Blago seems far more closely linked to Rezko than Obama ever was.) I am sure there are several guys who could fill the seat. What about Bill Daley?
Fuck you, markymark. Typical racist Obamatard.
Not only may the Democrats get close to 60, but what the Republicans will have left will be among the absolute worst senators, ie., Inhofe.
RE VA-11. Tom Davis is the outgoing Republican. I do believe that the Democrate is Gerry Connelly the Head of the Fairfax County board of supervisors (which might be accountable to more people than the state of Alaska). God I wish I was still in that district instead of being redistricted to Wolf vs Feder. Then again I might have number wrong.
I'm very curious about the sudden divergence in the red and blue lines on the graph. Nate, can you give us the actual date that this sharp change happened, so we can speculate on which of the many events might have turned the tide so radically?
-- Aimee
How many of the Republicans from the Gingrich Revolution are still left?
1)John Shadegg(AZ-3)
2)George Randanovich(CA-19)
3)Dave Weldon(FL-15)retiring.
4)Jerry Weller(IL-11)retiring.
5)Ray LaHood(IL-18)retiring.
6)Mark Souder(IN-3)
7)Todd Tiahrt(KS-4)
8)Ed Whitfield(KY-1)
9)Frank LoBiondo(NJ-2)
10)Rodney Frelinghuysen(NJ-11)
11)Walter Jones(NC-3)
12)Sue Myrick(NC-9)
13)Steve Chabot(OH-1)
14)Steve LaTourette(OH-14)
15)Phil English(PA-3)
16)Zack Wamp(TN-3)
17)Mac Thornberry(TX-13)
18)Tom Davis(VA-11)retiring
19)Doc Hastings(WA-4)
20)Barbara Cubin(WY-AL)retiring.
The Gingrich House Republicans who will remain in the 111th Congress is.
1)Shadegg(AZ-3)
2)Randanovich(CA-19)
3)Souder(IN-3)
4)Tiahrt(KS-4)
5)Whitfield(KY-1)
6)LoBiondo(NJ-2)
7)Frelyghysen(NJ-11)
8)Jones(NC-3)
9)Myrick(NC-9)
10)LaTourette(OH-14)
11)Wamp(TN-3)
12)Thornberry(TX-13)
13)Hastings(WA-4)
The plan to steal the next election:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html
Hey, Nate. I don't know how accurate your poll numbers and prediction for Mark Pryor from Arkansas are. There is no GOP candidate running for Senate in that state, so your calculation may be off for Pryor by like 20 points, since I don't see the Green candidate picking up that GOP support.
6-9 new Dem seats plus the seats of Obama, Biden, regrettably Kennedy, and hopefully not Byrd. We should have quite a few new Dem faces around the Senate in the next couple years.
Question: The last two MN senate polls conducted by Humprey/MPR are not in the current data for the senate but they most recent one was included in the presidential calculations. Is this an oversight or have they been intentionally excluded?
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/10/07/senatepoll/
The latest MPR senate numbers show Franken 41/Coleman 37/Barkley 14
PLEASE go to more than weekly updates here!!! The Presidential horse race is getting dull! :)
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