Quantcast FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Say It to My Face Debate Post-Mortem

10.15.2008

Say It to My Face Debate Post-Mortem

11:34 EDT: [Nate] Daschle was also sporting the SJR glasses in the Frontline special on the candidates last night. (Which you really all should watch right now).

11:24 EDT: [Nate] SurveyUSA California debate-watchers: Obama 56, McCain 28. Among California independents: Obama 55, McCain 29.

11:23 EDT: [Sean] Holy mackerel, what's with those glasses on Tom Daschle? Did Daschle lose a bet with Sally Jesse Raphael?

11:15 EDT: [Nate] I consider John King to be among most astute commentators out there, but he's a little bit out of line in critiquing his own poll, which he's said is skewed toward Democrats (the sample was something like D40, R30). It's skewed toward Democrats because America is skewed toward Democrats! The party ID split in the country right now is very close to 40/30. There's no doubt that Obama is going to find it a little bit easier to win these post-debate polls, simply because he has more support to begin with. But when he's winning every poll and every focus group by 2:1 margins, there are no excuses for McCain ... he's winning his base and just about nobody else. EDIT: Among independent voters in the CNN poll, Obama won 57-31, essentially matching his advantage from among all viewers.

11:04 EDT: [Nate] MediaCurves independents: Obama 60, McCain 30.

11:02 EDT: [Nate] CNN poll from the tee-vee: Obama 58, McCain 31.

11:00 EDT: [Nate] CBS undecideds: Obama 53, McCain 22.

11:00 EDT: [Sean] Hillary Clinton on CNN sounding pretty good. The Clintons need to get their butts to southeast Ohio, West Virginia, and southwest PA. (And Arkansas, dude! -- Nate).

10:55 EDT: [Nate] At the end of the day, one of McCain's problems is that he simply doesn't own the negativity very well. During the John Lewis sequence, during the ACORN and Ayers stuff, he came across as uncomfortable, insincere, overcoached. In certain ways, his "straight talk" brand plays against him when it seems as though he has trouble believing his own talking points.

10:48 EDT: [Sean] Ohio undecideds on CNN hated Joe the plumber.

10:45 EDT: [Sean] Looks like the Luntz group went Obama. Greta van Sustererereren crestfallen. We'll get the official numbers momentarily.

565 comments

Quinn McCourt said...

I wonder who Joe Plumber thought won?

Franco said...

awwww Poor Greta the hag,
So Bill Crystal said Obama won...they all look depressed there...bwaahahaha

pygmy_owl said...

Hey, that's cool. More than I would have expected.

Tabula Rasa said...

I wish Barack hadn't flashed that rueful smile so much...

skippy said...

i thought mcmuffin did a better job than usual tonite, but he still sounded like a crazy man.

Michael said...

Every time I think McCain did OK, and thankfully everyone else sees Obama winning. I think I'm too messed up from the 2004 debates.

gwill2k8 said...

the tongue jut will make SNL

phil said...

CNN's focus group panel: 15 Obama, 10 McCain. Some ties.

Cubfan said...

I'm sure Greta will change it. She only talks out of one side of her mouth, you know. :)

Research-China.Org said...

McCain had moments of strength, but overall he rehashed tired and disproven allegations. He came off as angry, while Obama was cool and detailed in his answers.

Obama won hands down.

Danielle Schramm said...

At 1031 John McCain made an incredibly weird gesture with his face while walking across the stage. Got to be a very bizarre moment.

Wilson said...

I love it.

Tabula, i think Obama's smile was perfect. He only did it when he knew McCain was blatently lieing.

Peru Project said...

Obama won the CNN Focus Group!!!

Ben said...

IN A MOMENT

not momentarily !

TripWire said...

Obama is a terrorist loving, baby killing traitor. He launched his campaign in Bill Ayers' living room. By the way, my campaign is ONLY about the economy

Nicholas said...

This feels like another debate where the immediate post-debate punditry calls it a draw, or that McCain "got in a lot of shots and punches" and got "a lot of points." Then the polls come in and they have to face the reality that Obama won. Voters aren't looking for points, they looking for who to vote for.

Media...idiots.

NonSanaeMentis said...

CNN Soledad Focus Group: 10 for McCain, 15 for Obama, 5 tied?

Cubfan said...

Dumb gap-tooth guy on CBS.

PorridgeGun said...

Seriously, Bill Bennett and Alex castellanos need their heads checked. They're actually convinced this was a slam dunk for McCain, and Obama's worst ever performance. That is SOOOOO not how I saw it, And I'm pretty critical of Obama. The only thing he didn't do was hit McCain on the G.I. Bill. Again.

2much2lose said...

Hey McCain, you can say "Bill the computer guy" over and over too, but it aint gonna make Bill Gates middle class!

phil said...

Three on CNN's panel are now voting for Obama. They didn't say how many for McCain.

cloud9ine said...

Ben,

Thanks! I was going to say that. Momentarily is for a moment. So Nate's gonna put the polls up for a moment and then remove them?

Kim said...

You commented on the gender gap a couple of times. While I can't speak for other women, I felt McCain came across as very paternalistic and condescending. I think men are a little less sensitive to this type of behavior than women.

LO GARROFER said...

I truly felt sorry for John McCain tonight. His desperation was so obvious, and so unfruitful in the attempt to project anything other than what he is, specially compared to his stellar rival.

Guys, let's stop watching at poll numbers. This game is over!

Doug said...

I guess I don't understand what's wrong with being "professorial." I like professors.

LnGrrrR said...

Obama had a poor night, but McCain seemed very hostile. From his "Zero?!?" comment, to the Ayers stuff, even at the end where he rushed hurriedly up to Obama and cut him off with terse "Good job, good job, good job".

borderpeak said...

Who can afford a plumber? Those guys are as pricey as doctors.

Tabula Rasa said...

wilson:

i know, but who knows what joe the plumber will make of it?!

i mean, how can you predict the thought processes of someone who is *still* undecided?!

Paul said...

momentarily

Molly said...

These focus groups are so ridiculous. One woman just said she wanted to hear their plans for dealing with small and medium sized businesses as that'll really drive our economy. She hasn't made her decision on who she's voting for three weeks before Election Day, yet she is claiming to know the solution to economic initiatives?

John McCain is my Love Child! said...

OFFICIAL RESULTS:


14,312 Plumbers named Joe out of our 21,713 Sample call the debate for Obama!

TripWire said...

"All Obama thinks about is spending money on children with autism. What is wrong with him[goofy, creepy grin, yellow teethed smile, tongue flash]"

mc9cain said...

hey grinder if you are around I thought of another one for The Big Secret or whatever you named it for the Wingnuts. How about (knock on wood) at the Inaugauation they bring out the Koran. hee hee.

Cubfan said...

CBS results coming up.

PorridgeGun said...

BTW, Joe the Plummer can go fuck himself. I hate the guy.


After tonight, nobody's gonna name their kid "Joe" for at least a decade. That's what Mccain achieved with his camapaign.

Real Joe said...

3 undecided on CNN decides to vote for Obama

others undecided

Obama won the debate - 15

McCain won the debate - 10

tied - 1

Marx was right said...

The public didn't like the negative ads by McCain when he was out campaigning. Why did Schmidt think it would be smart to bring up the negative shit in the debate?

McCain was way too schizophrenic. He was jumping from topic to topic when a question was asked. Somehow they ended up talking about Colombian-U.S. drug policy during one of the questions. It was just too schizo to follow.

Although BO is impressing me more and more - he stood up for Colombian laborers against assassination attempts! :)

Real Joe said...

hey i'm a good guy

:-)

TripWire said...

Joe the Plumber is Joe six pack on the weekends, by the way.

Real Joe said...

10:45 EDT: [Sean] Looks like the Luntz group went Obama

WOW

hurn0003 said...

My father is a plumbing contractor and owns a small business (12 employees).

What this discussion made me wonder was...how in the HELL does Joe the Plumber make over 250K per year? Around here a plumbing foreman makes at most 40-45K per year plus benefits. How do people in Ohio afford indoor plumbing w/ plumbers that make over 200K per year. No way would I call Joe to fix a leaky faucet, he would charge me like 500 bucks per hour.

2much2lose said...

Yeah but you're the Real Joe!

Swiff said...

The Luntz focus groups were completely discredited in my eyes by the New Hampshire Dem primary debate. Remember that? Hillary looked *DEAD* acoording to that group.

Quadrivium said...

Ben,

IN A MOMENT
not momentarily !


Once a nurse said to me "The doctor will be with you momentarily." I said "I hope not." The nurse looked very confused...

neal said...

I just don't get how a modern presidential campaign never seemed able to figure out through three debates that their candidate looks like a first-class jerk whenever he goes negative. Why is he still trying to lecture Obama like he is a child, it doesn't play.
The American people are interviewing these guys for a job, but McCain comes off like he's owed the position.
That is what Hillary thought too, it doesn't work.
Bush was likable and good at faking humility, and other BS.
McCain just seems to be a mean old politician, while Obama appears collected and earnest.
How could the McCain folks not have learned this?

Real Joe said...

Hillary on CNN

Kim said...

Anybody else think it was kind of weird how McCain slammed Obama for wanted to spend money on autism research and then, twenty minutes later, went and said spending money on autism research was very important?

One$Earned said...

@TripWire,

Can you repeat your last post.

John said...

"Joe the Plumber" is a Fox News watching conservative.

I hope he doesn't get too much press after this.

Peterbilt said...

Momentarily is "it's going to happen in a moment," not "it's only going to last a moment."

OK, enough grammar & usage.

I thought McCain got some nice jabs in, but he went down in flames more often, and sometimes was flat out lying. The biggest impression anything made on me at all was his demeanor. He spent most of the evening looking impatient, cantankerous, and right on the edge of a hissy fit. Definitely not someone I'd trust with the nuclear codes.

Also, "Joe the Plumber," WTF?! That had to be the most contrived running gag ever. All I could think of was Bob the Builder.

iceberg said...

McCain snorted while laughing at the end of the debate. If that doesn't show a lack of control, I don't know what does.

Phoeflame said...

I am tired with the obsession with the undecided (read: Look at me! Look at me! Come talk to me! Wait, don't take the cameras away, I'm still undecided!) voter. Here's the deal: if you're STILL undecided because you "haven't heard enough"--after two years of campaigning, after thousands of hours of media coverage, after access to the Internet--do everyone a favor and DON'T VOTE. I don't want someone that uninformed canceling out the votes of the rest of us.

Beth said...

What's funny is the dramatic difference between the two smiles. Obama's smile is so obviously genuine--it fills his face. He smiles with his eyes, nose, and cheeks, not just his mouth. McCain smiles the way my 5-yr-old smiles when I ask her to smile for a photo--so totally fake looking. Nothing moves beyond the mouth.

On the debate as a whole: McCain was better than he was in the other two, but he still came across as hugely negative and belligerent to Obama's cool, calm intensity. No comparison in my book.

I voted today in Ohio. Guess who for? ;-)

John said...

CBS poll of undecideds:

Who won the debate?

Obama 53
McCain 22

PorridgeGun said...

If Luntz/Fox went for Obama, it's inconcievable the other went against him. RIGHT?


Wolf Blitzkrieg trying to stir shit up with Hillary. SCUM.

Andy said...

Guy on CSPAN saying that Americans have forgotten 9/11, electing a man who is friends with terrorists and refused to place his hand on the bible during his swearing in, claiming that he insisted on placing his hand on the Quaran.

Whoa, there are some crazies out there.

www.democratz.org said...

Frank Luntz appears a shameless partisan manipulator. I would not watch anything from him.

The Republiklan party has come to an end to their 28 year AYN Randian Reaganesque greed deregulation poor bashing cultural terroristic joy ride.

Please answer this political opinion poll at http://poll.democratz.org

Mason said...

I know tripwire is a spoof.
I don't know what the subject of the spoof is.

Paul said...

http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/nonerrors.html#momentarily

One$Earned said...

@mc9cain,

did you watch? And what did you think?

For me Obama won, but not by much.

JJ said...

neal said...

I just don't get how a modern presidential campaign never seemed able to figure out through three debates that their candidate looks like a first-class jerk whenever he goes negative. Why is he still trying to lecture Obama like he is a child, it doesn't play.


I said it here before. McCain is actually decent when he is going positive. He just cannot control his inner beast when he goes negative.

Cubfan said...

Negatives killed McCain on the CBS insta-poll. Expect indies to start moving to Barack big-time now.

Matt said...

Courtesy of Marc Ambinder:
McCain at one point said he "didn't want to talk about a Washed up terrorist"

And yet he mentioned Ayers 6 times, and the middle class ZERO times.

I should get paid to write Obama's commercials 8)

Andrew said...

Obama dominates CBS instapoll.

53% say Obama won debate, 22% McCain, 24% say tie.

28% committed to vote O, 14% committed to vote M.

Goat said...

BBC says it was an Obama win...

They say McCain's sarcastic-seeming attacks blew it for him this evening/morning

Anthony said...

http://www.vulomedia.com/images/3086McCainFOX_NEWS.gif

Settle down there, John.

Tom Comeau said...

I'm a Maryland Republican, so my vote is a little pointless. Senator McCain's closing remarks reminded me, as he was delivering them, of Bob Dole's comments in 1996. "Just a man, just an American, just a Kansan, and nowhere to go but the White House or home."

Like Senator Dole, Senator McCain is a dedicated public servant and hero. That's a reason to respect him and show gratitude for his service. It also makes him seem like an old warrior whose time to fade away has come.

tc>

John said...

"Joe the Plumber" says McCain won the debate.

Like I said, he is Fox News watching conservative.

PA John said...

CBS Poll:

Obama 53%
McCain 22%
Tie 24%

Decided to vote:

Obama 28%
McCain 14%

John McCain is my Love Child! said...

Hey, lets freeze the fixity of language a little further and go back to the times when "momentarily" meant "instantly."


Get an OED. Look it up.


Luckily, my keen read of context suggests he meant it as "in a moment." Good thing I figured that out...otherwise I would have harped like some would-be grammarian utterly unconvinced by the founding insights of Saussurian linguistics...

ialex said...

Shut the fuck up, Leslie.

ss3 said...

CSPAN post-debate call in is like a sad combination of MTV TRL and some post-NASCAR race call in show.

PorridgeGun said...

John said...

CBS poll of undecideds:

Who won the debate?

Obama 53
McCain 22




UP YO ASS, Bennett/Castellanos!

Real Joe said...

pa john said...
CBS Poll:

Obama 53%
McCain 22%
Tie 24%

Decided to vote:

Obama 28%
McCain 14%


HOT DAMN.

---------------------------------------------------- said...

Did anyone else feel it was sexist when McCain said "Her husband is one tough guy too" in regards to Palin?

It seemed a bit offensive to me.

Luke C. said...

He failed his last chance.

It's over

Marc said...

Obama started slow and I think McCain actually slightly won the first few questions, but after the character stuff came out, Obama started kicking ass. He had the single biggest gut punch moment of the debate with his "Your fine will be ZERO" line - look at the replay, McCain actually falls back in his chair like he knows he let his guard down by forgetting the small business exemption.

Either way, I think McCain needed to soundly beat Obama to overcome his natural body language disadvantage. The man just looks hunched, jumpy, and sarcastic whether he can help it or not - these things do affect impressions in subtle but dramatic ways.

Barring a dead girl/live boy moment Obama looks like a lock - expect a small jump in the polls over the next few days, followed by a natural tightening over the last week and a half or so.

ialex said...

God I hate Leslie.

Bulldawg said...

My first comment here:
John McCain was very strong for the first half of the debate. But his ridiculous accusations about Lewis was the end of his success.

He completely ignored all the problems with his campaign and instead chose to blame Obama for all of the negative campaigning and even blamed Obama for people yelling things at Obama rallies.

When he kept coming up for the apology BS, he seemed like a petulant little kid stomping his feet and demanding everything go his way.

From then on, Obama was able to tell America that the issues are more important. He went through the Ayers connection. Again. On national TV. We can put it to bed. (He didn't really cover all of ACORN, but I really can't believe it is as big a story as people are making it out to be)

For the rest of the issues...healthcare, education...Obama's reaction points were off the charts positive.

And, McCain really screwed up in the ways he reacted to Obama's messages when he would completely misrepresent something, Obama would explain it, then McCain would completely misrepresent it again (healthcare and education especially). That shot his argument in the foot and he seemed confused and beholden to poor talking points.

Also, Obama nailed McCain on some of the problems with his plans (healthcare for example) and McCain was left misrepresenting Obama's plan.

McCain probably would've done a lot better in initial reaction if he had his closing comments last. They were quite good. But, the success was stemmed by equally good comments from Obama.


------------------------

Just personal opinions.

Thanks for such a great site. There is fantastic political commentary here on a daily basis!

PorridgeGun said...

Now, just watch Bill Bennett magically disappear into the night.

politicalcynic said...

We can say that at least one media group did NOT call it a tie. The CNN "presidential debate report card" clearly gives it to Obama. He received 2 A's and 3 B's from their "experts". In addition, I think it is interesting to note that two of those C's came from the Republican strategists in the group, who said he "rehashed old lines" and "failed to" explain why he "should be President".

Definitely not enough for a knockout blow here.

Quadrivium said...

59 percent of the American Heritage Dictionary Usage Panel considers it unacceptable to use "momentarily" to mean "in a moment."

Goat said...

"McCain was way too schizophrenic. He was jumping from topic to topic when a question was asked. Somehow they ended up talking about Colombian-U.S. drug policy during one of the questions. It was just too schizo to follow."

Schizophrenic?

McCain unfailingly shoe-horned Obama's proposed tax hike for Joe the Plumber into EVERY question, however irrelevant. No-one was more focussed than McCain this evening...

www.democratz.org said...

I don't watch CNN. Wolf Blitzer once worked for Pat Robertson. I don't need a former employee of CBN to give me his opinion.

I watch CSPAN, and read newspapers.


Please answer this political opinion poll at http://poll.democratz.org

eponymous said...

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Obama is seen to win this debate, even though I only caught the very end. Fact is, it's awful difficult to win a debate when you hold unpopular positions and are aligned, fairly or not, with an incredibly unpopular party. McCain needed to complete a Herculean task here and, according to our resident experts, it looks like he fell short.

Cubfan said...

Wow, big improvement for John. He didn't come in third this time.

Marx was right said...

Obama's closing speech was like diamonds. It was wonderful. He seems so humble whenever he opens his mouth, and yet you still get that "inspiring confidence" feeling knowing he's in charge. That's a really fine line to walk, I think.

McCain didn't do anything during this debate to further the idea that he cares one whit about ordinary working Americans. "There's nothing wrong with tax breaks for large companies." "We can't be spending any more money on education." And college students as a special interest group! Yeah, that'll go over well with struggling (and potential) college students and the families trying to send kids to college.

PorridgeGun said...

Goddamn, McCrypt Keeper lokked like shit tonight. That's not hyperbole.

Matt said...

Hillary Clinton just said "President Obama" with a straight face.

To paraphrase the Dodger's announcer from 20 years ago tonight, "I don't believe what I just heard!"

Christopher said...

Is this the most heart-wrenching story McCain could come up with? A plumber who has a chance to start earning $250K+/yr? If the tax rate is higher would he prefer to have less income?

Quick math lesson - Until the tax rate becomes 100%, you still make more by raising your income

If Joe doesn't like it, he should try paying his people more. That would lower his business income and free him from the oppressive proposed taxes of Obama.

Best Wishes Senator McCain. I actually voted for you in the OH Republican primary in 2000. Oh, how far we've come.

John said...

CNN poll of debate watchers:

Who won the debate?

Obama 58
McCain 31

Counter-revolutionary said...

It's rough for me. I wish I knew I was making the right decision. I am a free-trader, and I think that free trade is one of the things that's going to help us out of this mess over the next few years. But I don't think we can remain competitive in the world without solving the health care problem, possibly with the single-payer system. Guess I'll vote for Obama. He wants to help out small business owners just starting out. That's me all the way. Hope I and the country are making the right decision.

PorridgeGun said...

Okay, CNN already spinning against their OWN poll. Shut it, Campbell.


Devestating numbers for McCain. FUCK ME!!!

shalott said...

!!!!!!!!

Obama won the CNN poll 58 to 31!

TripWire said...

I think the reasons McCain makes all those messed up grins and krinkly smilies is simply because he needs to release the tension after holding a straight face lie after lie.

someperson718 said...

58-31, Obama damn near WHOOPING THAT ASS!

oct said...

I am sorry but can a plumber make that much $$$$?

PA John said...

CNN POLL:

Obama - 58%
McCain- 31%

Favorables:

Obama went up 2
McCain down 2

Mcain was pwnd

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama!!! said...

That part where Obama said "they'll pay 0" was hilarious. McCain was in a state of awe and disbelief, for some reason, even though it really wasn't that big of a deal.

hurn0003 said...

I am an Obama fan and honestly I am surprised by the polling. I thought Obama won, but I thought it was closer than the last 2. I thought McCain started strong and then went way off line.

I wonder if some of this isn't the effect of people expecting Obama to win and interpreting things through that lense.

But I will take a big win again. No complaints about it.

PorridgeGun said...

McCNN are in absolute SHOCK.

They're now regrouping, actually anaylzing what we the people saw during the debate.

anonymous said...

I think Joe the Plumber was not quite so popular to the panels due to the fact that he's actually a giant ass.

Have you guys seen the full video with the Obama answer, and then the clip from the Fox show that he immediately called into?

Guy's a douche.

Jay said...

Third time poster, long time lurker.

I agree with Nate that McCain won the first 20 minutes. Then he vacillated between unhinged and incredible. Still, overall was his best performance.

Obama was fine. Basically the same as the past (although I was glad he pointed out that "Joe the Plumber" wouldn't have to pay a fine for failing to provide health insurance, and for pointing out that the majority of "small business owners" don't earn more than 250K/year).

Therefore, Obama "wins" because he didn't come out with a full body tattoo of Bill Ayers or some out with Jeremiah Wright in his corner like Mr. Fuji to Saito.

Real Joe said...

Obama wins CNN poll

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama!!! said...

McCain losing the debate is GREAT NEWS!!! For BARACK OBAMA!!!!!!

TripWire said...

McCain looked like he had to take a 9 pound dump he held in for 8 days with those facial expressions.

Jay said...

Although the smiles were unnecessary....

nkpolitics1279 said...

Joe Biden,Dick Lugar,Jim Jones,Warren Buffet,William Ayers,Jeremaih Wright.

PorridgeGun said...

I'll empty my bank account to the individual who can locate Bill Bennett.


I'm serious. He's gone from CNN Election HQ.

Kelly said...

Anyone else hear the

"...breast of fresh air.." slip?

When he was describing his running mates qualifications?

ss3 said...

Caller On CSPAN call-in:

"put your hand over your heart. vote mccain. vote palin."

now THAT'S a great argument for presidential selection!

PA John said...

The re-spinning on CNN right now is making me dizzy.

Cousin Murray said...

Mediacurves: Who won?

Republicans 18% Obama, 70% McCain
Democrats 81% Obama, 10% McCain
Independents 60% Obama, 30% McCain

igwespike said...

For me, this is all about likeability. McCain is not likeable, his sneering, sarcastic personality is just not likeable. Obama is likeable. Undecideds are going to break towards Obama for this reason, they're not paying attention to what these two are saying, but the body language and attitude of McCain will turn them off.

Marx was right said...

Palin a "bresh of freth air." That was pretty funny. Thanks, Keith O., for bringing that up.

Goat said...

"I am sorry but can a plumber make that much $$$$?"

Fuck yes.

Over here in the UK they can anyway - in the past 25 years or so there's been a massive decline in young people learning trades, so plumbers, electricians, plasterers etc can make a fortune. Scarcity..

Real Joe said...

good thing i jumped ship

this ship is sinking fast

nkpolitics1279 said...

Joe the Plumber
Larry the Cable Guy

Marc said...

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama!!! said...

"That part where Obama said "they'll pay 0" was hilarious. McCain was in a state of awe and disbelief, for some reason, even though it really wasn't that big of a deal."

The LAST thing McCain was expecting was an answer - he wanted to hammer it again after the last debate and play up Obama's refusal to answer - in fact, I think part of his reaction was an "Oh shit, I can't use my prepared followup now!" He left himself wide open by playing on the small business guy and forgetting Obama's fines didn't apply to him.

Mason said...

To paraphrase the Dodger's announcer from 20 years ago tonight, "I don't believe what I just heard!"

That would be the immortal Vin Scully. You may genuflect now.

Alyssa said...

"Also, "Joe the Plumber," WTF?! That had to be the most contrived running gag ever. All I could think of was Bob the Builder."

or Bill the Butcher! And maybe more appropriate for the old geezer

Shadowspecies said...

Gentlemen and women...all polls giving it to obama by a 2:1 margin.

2 words we've waited so long to hear are upon us.




President Obama

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

I bet my buddy that all the polls would give Obama a blowout win as always, and of course they show that.

These polls mean nothing!

Obama never gained more than 1-2 points in any tracking poll from the debates in the past.

We'll see who truly won.
MCCAIN Finally woke up tonight... Too little too late???

fred said...

He did not say it to his face

mcCain, wimp , loser

shadowguidex said...

Sorry, but this is all academic at this point. Obama wins, it's written in stone. I've been playing this charade for too long now, it's over, McCain lost, it's over.

There's 3 minutes left in the 4th quater, Obama is up by 17 points, McCain has no chance - he's just passing the ball all willey-nilley, hoping for a lucky play, but likely to throw an interception. This game is over, the people are filing out trying to beat the traffic, the announcers are talking about the new records as they look to the next game. I've watched the end of lots of sports game, the entire media just screaming it - it's over, they have no more story, time to look to the next game. It's over.

Nathan said...

Fox News is showing surprising neutrality and impartiality tonight. I'm impressed.

Elliot Tarabour said...

This was McCain's "Al Gore" moment.

He lost without saying a word.

McCain was speaking to his base. Obama was speaking to the undecideds.

Bill Bennett tried to spin it on CNN but got cut off at the knees.

Where's Don Meridith?

e.

TripWire said...

I loved the part where Obama goes "Actually, that isn't my health care plan. In fact, Joe would pay zero" And McPOW stares at the camera for a minute like "WTF, really???"

hurn0003 said...

Goat said...

"I am sorry but can a plumber make that much $$$$?"

"Fuck yes.

Over here in the UK they can anyway - in the past 25 years or so there's been a massive decline in young people learning trades, so plumbers, electricians, plasterers etc can make a fortune. Scarcity.."


Ummmm...

As I said above my father owns a small business and is a plumbing contractor. SD is non-union so salaries are lower, but you are looking at 45K per year maximum for a plumbing foreman. 250K you would have to charge $400+ and hour to sustain. There is no way this guy is simply a "plumber". He has to be in management.

triton said...

Re: 'momentarily' and other corrections in other threads

It's nice to see that so many fellow pedants have gathered at this site.

Grant said...

Wha' happened to mediacurves?

fred said...

Even, average, nothing

mccain lost

seemes seanile

game over

Dave Brodbeck said...

Hey McCain, my son has autism, not Down's syndrome.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Continue to spread 1 to 2 points each debate--3 to 6 points overall--he'll take it.

bewtifulfreak said...

Kim said...

Anybody else think it was kind of weird how McCain slammed Obama for wanted to spend money on autism research and then, twenty minutes later, went and said spending money on autism research was very important?

I definitely noticed that, so much so that I blogged about it. It was just one of many glaring examples of McCain's insincerity. I found it annoying enough when he said he would back that research and then slammed Obama for being a spendthrift simply because he said he wanted to do the same, but pointed out that would take funding which an across-the-board spending freeze wouldn't allow. And then to turn around and say, "We will spend money on that", well... as many have pointed out, that's the kind of thing that makes him sound so erratic and downright schizo.

(Not to mention that Palin's son has Down's Syndrome, so how the hell does that give her experience on autism? I guess the same way a report declaring that she breached ethics clears her of all ethical misconduct!)

beehive maiden said...

"Joe the Plumber" and "Joe Six Pack" are about ready to make me puke. Lord help me if "Joe the Plumber" gets repeated more than 199,799,743 times before the election.

Hilarious tongue jut analyses, guys.

interstices said...

is it to late to grab joetheplumber.com domain?

Obama wins. People are getting used to him through the year. Over time more are comfortable with him and he seems like Tiger Woods or Michael.

jbdallas07 said...

As happy as I am about Obama's prospects to win the election (I'll be voting for him), I feel really bad for John McCain. I think if McCain had been president the last 8 years, the world would be a much different and better place.

Even though I don't like how he's run his campaign (and hate his running mate choice), I still like John McCain.

Watching him in the debates and over the last few weeks has been like watching a wounded animal trying to fight off the wolves to save its own life. It's sad to watch.

John McCain is my Love Child! said...

1/1 Johnmccainismylovechild! posters prefer the OED to the AHD.

davidteich said...

Okay, so a lot of people seem to think that McCain won the first half and Obama won the second, and that Obama won overall. But here's my fear...Don't a lot of people stop watching after the first half?

Please, somebody convince me that I have nothing to worry about.

Eric said...

I don't get why McCain won 'points' or whatever by saying "I'm not George W Bush." Yes, that's great to know.

But guess what, McCain? There's a guy on the stage, who REALLY REALLY isn't George W Bush. And it ain't you.

Goat said...

In other news, Asian stock markets have plummeted over the past three hours. We're all screwed, but good news for potential Obama landslide...

Wa7th said...

For the soon-to-be-unemployed Republican staffers:

I hear the bootstrap factory is hiring.

Mark said...

Here's the best jab of the night, leaving McCain a little stunned:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T1-qwL5u5A

"Zero?"

"Zero."

fred said...

McCain thinks if yiou have enough money you can cure downs or autism

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Don't worry David---all will be well

Jared said...

Bummer for McCain. It's his age and personality that are losing these debates. Those CNN and CBS polls paint a different picture than what most of us saw, which was a close debate where McCain got the better of Obama more than the other way around.

justin's library said...

funny. i read on the huffpost that senator clinton has been providing senator mccain talking points on the housing bust.

i have yet to see either ms or mr clinton come close to giving more on in swing states beyond their walk-through performances at the convention.

must be hard to see history past you by.

guess we will see if they will give back to the party as much it has given to them....doubtful.

Batensmack said...

McCain lost a lot of mothers with that whole "health of the mother" comment.

Kathy said...

Haven't read all the comments, so forgive me if this is redundant, but wrt autism, Palin's sister Heather has an autistic son. That said, I don't think that's really common knowledge, so I don't understand why McCain went with that instead of with Down Syndrome.

JJ said...

McCain Losing in the Polls IS GREAT NEWS!!!!! for JOHN MCCAIN!!!!

PorridgeGun said...

Contrary to the post-debate polling data, Alex Castellanos still spinning tonight as a victory.



Just think, if indies and undecideds didn't have a say after these debates, the MSM would declaring McCain the Comeback Kid.


Unbelievable. CNN are now skeptical of their OWN poll. Fucking surreal.

oct said...

Joe the plumber

CommieChemist said...

Fixed news website shows Obama winning 68 - 32.

D said...

Here is the full context of "Joe the Plumber".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFC9jv9jfoA

Enjoy!

burndtdan said...

Favorable/Unfavorable

Obama, before debate: 63/35
Obama, after debate: 66/33

McCain, before debate: 51/45
McCain, after debate: 49/49

McCain LOST popularity.

OUCH!

Fred's Shorts said...

Mccain did allot better this time, but it's at the cost of wasting all his time attacking Obama's platform than justifying his own.

THIS IS GREAT NEWS!!!!?!FOR PRESIDENT ELECT OBAMA!


(Did I got it right? first time poster)

PorridgeGun said...

Rick Davis: "Obama is Bush"



He don't look happy.

Real Joe said...

commiechemist said...
Fixed news website shows Obama winning 68 - 32.

HAHHHAHAHAHHAHA

Cubfan said...

If the remaining undecideds move to Obama 2-1, we're looking at more than 375 EVs.

theguide said...

dammit! that makes... carry the 3... 6 hours of my life I can never get back, watching all that rubbish, and NO fights! I wanted a fight! what the fuck is wrong with me?

Tyson said...

Joe the Plumber needs to find a better CPA

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

I can use some help with gas leaks

America4US said...

I want someone who is calm and cool in a crisis, not someone who's going to get angry in a heartbeat and probably lob nuke missiles at some country McCain gets pissed at. Obama is the man for the job. Lets give him that job. However, it's not over until we VOTE him in, we need to make sure we do our American right and VOTE. I don't want people saying "Since Obama has such a large lead in my state, I'll let others do it for me." NO! Make your vote count! Hell, even European countries are hoping for an Obama win! Keep the campaign running in high gear. Let's take it to the house...HE...COULD...GO...ALL...THE...WAY!!!

Marc said...

Wow, CNN.com is a joke - the headline is "McCain: I am not President Bush" and the article all about how "McCain put Obama on the spot" and "went on the offensive". Nearly every portion of the article presents it as if McCain took initiative and Obama was on the defensive. These guys are pushing HARD for a horse race...too bad they won't get it.

Marx was right said...

The world would not be a better place than it is now if McCain had been president the last 8 years. Based on McCain's history, his fake "maverickness," and his alignment with very conservative values like tax cutting and anti-choice, the world would decidedly not be a better place.

Allen said...

Mediacurves: Who won?

Republicans 18% Obama, 70% McCain
Democrats XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Independents XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

This is really good news! FOR JOHN McCAIN!!

(Sorry, I couldn't resist.)

hehe

Leah said...

It seemed to me like Mccain was blinking in Morse code and the message was "Save this Campaign".

I wonder if his campaign managers were listening to his distress call?

PorridgeGun said...

Fuck's sake, McCNN are INSANE. They're making complete arses of themselves.

dr von drinkensnorten said...

I think the brilliant thing that Obama did regarding the Ayers/negative campaigning issue was to, on one hand, concisely and authoritatively answer the two most specious accusations, and on the other hand, barely touch on the subject of his own negative campaign ads.

Of course, as has been pointed out by bloggers like Greenwald and Digby, the tone and quantity of mud slung is not at all a balanced equation -- and this is why Obama was able to take the high road, explain the facts and garner some sympathy. It is also instructive, or should be to McCain, on the dangers of running so negative a campaign (especially with an opponent willing and able, as Obama surely is, to meet these smears head on).

I heard an interesting quote from Al Franken regarding his Senate race with Norm Coleman: (paraphrasing) "well, I am running a campaign based on the issues and (Coleman's) record, so of course the ads have been negative."

That got a laugh out of me, but if Obama had tried to say something like that he would have come off as smug -- which may have ended up hurting him.

Of course, no matter what he does many voters will always see anything that Obama says as being smug and arrogant. This is especially true for the core of McCain supporters, who, like me, must have heard loud and clear the theme of Obama's response to the Ayers and ACORN smears: "Here I am, on the high road -- I invite you, John McCain, to join me here."

President Obama has a nice ring to it. Get used to hearing that.

Larry Parker said...

Hopefully, Saturday Night Live will bring back Dan Ackroyd to play "Joe the Plumber".

EmonOkari said...

After tonight's debate, its still to early to play 'We Are The Champions'. However, one thing is undeniably certain: The Nerds are taking the stage, and Poindexter just whipped out his electric fiddle.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

You done good fred's shorts

RedHawksO4 said...

By all metrics, Obama seems to have won convincingly. Close it out Barack!



The End Of Conservatism As We Know It?

PorridgeGun said...

Tell ya what, the split screen videos of McCain is comedy gold. Even better than Bush 4 years ago.

One$Earned said...

This debate will not affect the polls much, at least in the current trend in the Super Tracker.

KIC said...

Just because McCain kept saying basically "There you go spending again", I sure wish Obama would have said "So, John, isn't that going to take money?" Whenever John pushed any of his campaign points. Let's face it, to accomplish things, you do have to spend and hell, why not. Freezing spending is not an answer. You simply can't "freeze" everything. Obama brought up specific examples of how to at least switch spending.

And, personally, I get reeeeeaaally made that anyone use the term "pro-abortion". *snark in* Oh weee! That's right! Let's all go have one! Everyone should get one! No more babies!*snark off* If McCain wanted to offend independent women anymore, he couldn't have chosen a better way to do it.

eve said...

That Joe the plumber routine was insulting. It was McCain talking down to the voter.

McCain lives in the world of the very rich and powerful. And he sees himself as very much above everyone who isn't. It shows in his condescending remarks.

One$Earned said...

The coverage of debates gets better and better every four years, or maybe I'm getting older, more attentive and less desire to go to the bars.

fred said...

Joe the plumber shaves hs head - all men who shave their head are insane assholes.

thus
obama wins as obama does not support insane ass holes

David Sanger said...

"At no point have we seen a grace note from McCain. When dealing with the negativism of the campaign, it would not have killed him to seem genuinely horrified at calls for violence rather than offended that anyone dare criticize him or some of his supporters. Or to wish Obama well. It's this lack of generosity of spirit that he lacks and that people want in a president. Obama still manages to say when he agrees with or admires McCain. In this whole dynamic, Obama seems more secure, more self-controlled, more mature. He is the Alpha Male on this stage, and McCain the bristling teen - aged 72. No wonder women seem to be so disproportionately pro-Obama."

game..

set...

match...


Sullivan

PorridgeGun said...

I expected the numbers to look good for Obama, but not THAT GOOD.

KIC said...

So good to see Rick Davis, who has been making 15K a month from Fannie and Freddie pretty much through this entire campaign. Yeah, I so like seeing you speak for McCain.

Sean from Rochester NY said...

I have been watching the CNN broadcast and they are doing their damnedest to discredit their OWN POLLS. They want everyone to just simply ignore the fact the election is breaking towards Obama and maintain the illusion that this is still a dead heat. At least they have finally updated their electoral map and faced the facts that have been apparent to the rest of us for some time.

On a different note I just loved the part of the debate about the 0% fine. McCain was soooo shocked by that and it gave me a good laugh.

Real Joe said...



Joe The Plumber is uncommitted, still, according to the AP.

Simon said...

Hannity quoting Zogby on Fox.
COOL!

fred said...

mccain is a condescending prick

eve said...

I can't wait for the SNL skit.

Will McCain show up for Letterman?

MytownChitown said...

I just think John McCain looks like a friendly version of the Cryptkeeper.

Why is so out of line to suggest that the reason he did well for 20 minutes is that he's only good for 20 minutes?

That he becomes the cranky old angry guy after 20 minutes?

That he needs a nap after 20 minutes?

That he might mistake the gas and the brake after 20 minutes?

PorridgeGun said...

And Obama's got a couple of sweet endorsements on the way.

Real Joe said...

WOW

Harper said...

Hopefully this will push Barack to 400 EVs!!! I thought McCain was a train wreck in the middle of the debate. He defended his supporters calling Obama a "terrorist" and shouting "kill him". At the same time, Obama was absolutely unflappable.

Sean said...

I think its very telling that FOX news poll shows Obama winning the final debate 67 to 33 with 35000 votes.

One$Earned said...

After SNL, Joe the Plumber will be firmly in the Dems camp.

Jake said...

About McCain's Joe Plumber example.

Plumbers make very good money in my neighborhood. (SF Bay Area) A licensed plumber can make about $85/hour. Based on that, I know of none that make over $250,000 per year, and I work in the trades with plumbers all the time. McCain's example of "Joe Plumber" is stretched at best and illuminates an example which, in reality, would be very, very rare.

Simon said...

Romney bashing that teeming cesspool that is Europe on Fox. I like this channel.

mc9cain said...

All I want to know is WHERE THE HELL WAS BARACK OBAMA WHEN WE NEEDED HIM 4 YEARS AGO??? LOL. Just kidding. But Kerry could have been VP. I know I know. He wouldn't have won the all important Executive Experience Question.

Wow - how the world would be different right now.

PorridgeGun said...

Still don't get why Obama didn't hammer McCain on the Webb G.I. Bill at all during these debates.

Anyone have any theories as to why?

jbdallas07 said...

CNN - The Best Political Whores on Television.


Rick Davis is a prick.

ohiovoter said...

RE: the candidates' demeanor --

I wish someone would ask voters to consider which one of these two men's styles they would prefer to see employed by a president when dealing with other world leaders.