Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Palmetto State, South Carolina.
LAND OF COLBERT, South Carolina's eneagled and superstantial gift of eight electoral votes to megaamerican John McCain mark it the land of freem (freedom without the "do"), though the state's secessionist history makes it hardly Lincolnish. More like grippy.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
South Carolina, home to McCain's infamous 2000 campaign momentum stopper, is a safe state for him this time. A huge number of Christian conservatives live here, and not many Catholic voters that tend to favor Democrats. "American" ancestry is big favorite here, and indeed John McCain's clear fundraising edge on Barack Obama is an anomaly. Low education rates and higher gun ownership rates weigh in McCain's favor, as does a better-than-median percentage of military veterans. South Carolina has outperformed the national Republican average by double digits for six consecutive presidential elections, and will do so again when John McCain collects its eight electoral votes.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama can count on a very high degree of support from African-American voters, which place it 5th nationally. The state is in the top ten in percentage of female voters, and South Carolina's traditionally awful turnout rates -- worst on the mainland -- could allow for a Democratic surge to pull the race into single digits if one assumes such a surge would come from excited Dems. Unemployment is relatively high in South Carolina, which might push economic concerns a bit higher on the list of deciding factors. Obama dramatically overperformed the polls here in the primary, and if a reverse Bradley effect exists, it might appear in a state like South Carolina.
What To Watch For
South Carolina has one Senate race, Lindsey Graham's safe seat, and safe seats in nearly every House race on both sides. If there were one House race to watch in a wave year, it would be SC-01 along the coast, where incumbent Republican Henry Brown, Jr. faces a challenge from Democrat Linda Ketner. The race is lean Republican, and doesn't appear to be one of the likely wave candidates, but relatively speaking this is South Carolina's closest race.
10.25.2008
Road to 270: South Carolina
@ 10:35 PM
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First
Try megamerican instead.
third
South Carolina looks like it could be the one red blip for the foreseeable future in the Coast of Blue from Maine to Florida.
Best. Intro. Ever.
Yes, you're having way too much fun with these intros, Sean. This one is positively harlish. (My word verification.)
MN Senate Debate Recap
Obama's Senate Coattails
Debunking the Bradley Effect, Again
Apologies for (slightly) hijacking the thread.... A good technical description of what might actually be happening in at least some of the "vote-flipping" scenarios can be found here.
The Obama campaign has cut off the station that did the Biden interview by cancelling an interview with Jill Biden. The station actually thinks they were doing a good job.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment_tv_tvblog/2008/10/obama-campaign.html
Letting everyone know about the EMERGENCY LETTER I received from John McCain asking for money-big surprise. First of all, I'm homeless, due in large part to a film and book I'm writing and my mailing address is a Los Angeles homeless agency-further I'm not registered this year (even though I look patriotic because I promote my movie and book often wearing a tall red white and blue U.S. flag hat along with professionally printed sandwich boards in high traffic areas such as the Sunset Strip)-anyway, the gist of the EMERGENCY LETTER is that Barack Obama is at an unfair advantage because he had the nerve to refuse to accept public money (congratulations Obama-game changer and a far more honorable one than those practiced by Karl Rove) and all those socialist policies-you know, the ones that maybe 95% of the population would benefit from-and a person such as me, who's also trying to be an inspiration for other people in my situation would benefit from-needless to say I will not be sending John McCain any EMERGENCY MONEY. But I might throw some away at the craps table in his honor when I go to Las Vegas to promote my work on Halloween....and just maybe I'll fly into a rage touches my arm too. (Just kidding-I hardly think gambling is a good idea in my situation.)
CUTTING CONFESSIONS, the bizarre and funny fate driven love story between a midwestern man and an abused and artistic Beverly Hills girl set in Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Lake Havasu and the Las Vegas Strip-see blogs:
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
www.myspace.com/372390338
Are people languishing in jail or prison because a Los Angeles homicide detective with two felony convicted drug dealing sons is also a shadow criminal or maybe just a bad police officer? Internal Affairs will decide in the matter of Samuel Catalfamo:
www.myspace.com/370392338
What personal interest should I use to derail this thread?
Hmm...
@steve,
Good post. I like the part about people not reading the instructions.
The other issue with touch screens is that they are likely to misbehave if they are touched in more than one place at a time. I wonder how many people put their palm on the screen and then touch with a finger.
I'm a software developer, and like to use computers for many things. But sometimes they just make things more complicated.
3 states on a Saturday? Not only is that impressive for an off-day like Saturday, but its impressive for any day of the week. It also shows you guys are serious about getting all 50 states done before election day.
Posted this in the polls thread and wanted to move it to the new one now:
Hey, first time poster here. Have been addicted to this site and the comments and I was pissed enough at this scumbag Zogby to post. Check out his "tease":
"I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go." - John Zogby
WTF? "Magnetic pull"?!? I think we have all seen Obama hover above the freakin' magnet at over 50% for a solid time now. Everyone who has followed the daily trackers know that at most you see O -1 and M +1 for a 2 pt swing and this idiot Zogby is going to try and show a 6 pt swing overnight? It is just pathetic IMO. Appreciate other thoughts on this garbage that everyone will be citing tomorrow...
I'm now 100% convinced that ALL Zogby polls be left out of Nate's simulation. It's a complete joke that runs with the kinds of IBD/TIPP and the AP poll, let's get rid of it.
"I'm now 100% convinced that ALL Zogby polls be left out of Nate's simulation. It's a complete joke that runs with the kinds of IBD/TIPP and the AP poll, let's get rid of it."
No, please. No cherrypicking. No introduction of bias. Let all the data stand.
InkStain said...
What personal interest should I use to derail this thread?
Hmm...
Oooh! Oooh!
How about some home-made fail?
Or the truth about Sarah Palin's motives?
Or maybe some simple political advice?
Yeah, I've been bored. Trying to put off some work due on Monday. =)
Getting rid of it may be an over reaction but honestly, he is now describing his polls as having a "magnetic pull". I mean come on seriously. When does he poll, 11am? To have his results 3 hrs ago. I mean come on.
"Yeah, I've been bored. Trying to put off some work due on Monday. =)"
I'm putting off work due in an hour.
Don't give up on SC. I am from Charleston originally and while its clear that the state is likely going to stay in Republican hands, the fact that Democrats are even contesting Congressional races is a major change since I was in high school. There is a large AA community that certainly could overwhelm a low voter turnout for McCain, if Obama had the resources to court it -- I suspect, however, that most of the volunteers attracted in state are being sent and used more effectively in Georgia and North Carolina, where there are 1) actual cities and 2) educated populations.
South Carolina for all of its beauty has experienced almost fifty years of brain drain. Even my HS classmates that took advantage of the state's STAR scholarships have left, every last one of them.
I have to wonder about how some states are not so thoroughly repulsed by the tactics of McCain and Palin.
Is it because they always just vote republican regardless of whose name it is on the ballot? I despise that type of voter, dem or pub.
Is it because they are so low information? It can't be that because even in the most remote spot in SC, they have access to a ton on information, even if it is slow info via dialup.
It just seems odd that a few states don't move at all with the national polls. This includes blue states like Mass.
Should we discuss the reverse Bradley effect, since Sean brought it up.
I'll start, if we think that the Bradley effect doesn't exist becuase people tell pollsters the truth, how could we belive there would be a reverse BE?
Now, I really think that there are a lot of people who lie about voting for McCain to their neighbors, friends and relatives. But what about to pollsters?
@games,
I think instain was referring to the recent discussion in the last thread. Good discussion, but lets leave it there.
GaMeS:
Nice!
"is that Barack Obama is at an unfair advantage because he had the nerve to refuse to accept public money (congratulations Obama-game changer and a far more honorable one than those practiced by Karl Rove)"
That is funny considering that the money Obama gets is public money.
What is the average donation? A little under a $100. Not much special interest taint in that.
"I'll start, if we think that the Bradley effect doesn't exist becuase people tell pollsters the truth, how could we belive there would be a reverse BE?"
We don't disbelieve the Bradley Effect because we think we know what people tell pollsters. We disbelieve it because it's been statistically studied and found to have disappeared.
"Now, I really think that there are a lot of people who lie about voting for McCain to their neighbors, friends and relatives. But what about to pollsters?"
No, the issue is with weighting. Pollsters project a certain turnout for African Americans. The reverse Bradley posits they will turn out at much higher rates.
InkStain said...
"Yeah, I've been bored. Trying to put off some work due on Monday. =)"
I'm putting off work due in an hour.
Heh.
Curse you, fivethirtyeight.com! Curse you and your addictive poll-y goodness that led me to blow deadline after deadline!
=)
Troy:
I don't think it's real likely either. I think Sean mentions it only because Obama overperformed the polls in the primaries in several Southern states. I suspect the cause is more likely flawed models by the pollsters (or more charitably, turnout that's significantly different from what they can predict from past elections.) If so, the same effect could be present in their general election polling.
@PorDem
If Nate starts to bounce polls now because he believes they give crappy (McCain) results, he'll be as guilty as RCP. He has already weighted the crappy polls, but they do provide information, and that's what key for his calculations. Don't worry. There are enough accurate pollsters out there to take care of the jokesters.
Breaking news:
In between a volleyball box score and a football report, the fax machine in the office just spit out a report from a Kansas church letting me know that Barack Obama is the antichrist. We are clearing the front page.
No, the issue is with weighting. Pollsters project a certain turnout for African Americans. The reverse Bradley posits they will turn out at much higher rates.
I agree, but calling it a reverse Bradley Effect just increases the confusion over what the Bradley Effect is. If it doesn't involve lying to pollsters, it shouldn't be called a Bradley Effect (regular or reverse.)
Re the Bradley Effect or Reverse Bradley Effect (the first of which has been debunked) -- The only concern I have these days is that enough people will be unable to go ahead and vote for the AA guy. But this cycle I think the only color that is going to matter to most people is green.
"Yeah, I've been bored. Trying to put off some work due on Monday. =)"
I'm putting off work due in an hour.
I have to wait until Monday before I can waste time on FiveThirtyEight when I should be working...
I agree, im just getting frustration out here, it's just odd that he is finished so early and reports his numbers to Drudge, that's hilarious.
This whole fighting from within storyI don't believe will have an effect on the Republican base as much as it will among Independents.
Tossup states when this was close- with new win %'s for Obama
NH- 94
FL- 74
MO- 67
PA- 99
OH- 81
MI-100
WI- 99
MN- 99
IA-99
CO-93
NM-93
NV-70
All very clearly in Obama's favor- some with huge margins- MI, WI, MN, IA etc
Tossup states now that weren't even supposed to be close- many are states that have gone Republican by 15%+
IN-54
NC- 66
VA- 94
ND- 16
MT- 14
GA- 13
VA is seemingly a sure thing, and NC looks really good. Now all of a sudden ND, MT, and GA are getting very close, and IN has either flipped or gotten very very close.
I know Dems likes to be hesitant and take nothing for granted- but 375 looks safe right now. This is crazy- no one thought it'd be this out of control.
My favorite stat of the day
McCain landslide%- .01%
Obama landslide%- 46.75%
So Obama is 4,675 times more likely to have a landslide win than McCain.
Hasnt't Selzer speculated that there are an unusually high number of people responding 'other' and that these people are going overwhelmingly Obama coupled with a lower than average responce from AA leading her to guess that more AA were responding 'other' and thus messing up their ratings?
Even the Iowa GOP can't figure out why McCain is coming to Des Moines.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081025/NEWS09/810250332/-1/SPORTS09
Zogby has about 330 people in his daily samples- small and subject to wild swings. Treat him like Hotline - one day of Hotline means nothing and if you wait for the rolloff day of an anomolous sample lo and behold it will be back in line. If you get two or three samples from him in a row that look off than there might be real movement.
Also- have all of Drudges 'leaks' of polls been true or has he been suckered once or twice.
What Zogby leaked to Drudge was his one day of polling, not his three day average. I think we have to assume that the three day will have a larger spread. Also Zogby's one day is actually spread over two days.
Who cares... Actually good news to have polls show it is closer than it really is.
@The Game,
Welcome former Lurker! :) Here's what I think of Drudge. As soon as he upgrades from his 1985 WordPerfect software, I will start looking at his 2008 drama election predictions. Looking at them not believing them - but that's a start.
Maybe this will be early enough in the comment thread that Nate or Sean will notice.
There is a bug in the simulation that has been mentioned a number of times by different commenters. You can see it in the scenario analysis for McCain loses OH, wins election and McCain loses OH/FL, wins election. The latter today says 0 out of 8055. But the FL win percentage for Obama is 74%, so there can be no more than about 7400 simulations in which McCain loses FL, nowhere near the 8055 that the scenario analysis says there are in which he loses both OH and FL.
Please, Nate, can you look at this bug or explain the numbers so we can have confidence in the Scenario Analysis results?
Thanks for reminding me about Zogby reporting a 3 day average Matt W...so he should most likely report a 7-8 pt spread then. That's fine, but the "magnetic pull" BS and alluding to some huge shift going on is just bogus IMO.
Sarah Palin is the gift that keeps on giving. This story broke today on AP and will be talked about this next week. Whoops. Where did the McCain campaign go? But there's plenty of time left, isn't there?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27374946/
Seems that Palin couldn't manage a proper bidding process for her taunted gas pipeline project, and corrupted that process.
My oh my.
BEST. CAMPAIGN. EVER.
The thing that bothers me more than anything about Zogby is that he is leaking info to Sludge. His incompetence as a pollster is secondary.
I don't know how Drudge got hold of the Ras numbers a few weeks ago, but that disturbed me even more.
Im with you Game, the write-ups more than even the results are what reeally piss me off.
Magnetic Pull...it's results like these when you know, he truly pulls numbers out of his ass. He knows any higher results and no more money and no more traffic. Which we can kind of get with his leaks to Drudge every now and then.
I moved to SC in June, though it looks like my first election spent here will be uneventful. I hold out a lot of hope for Ketner (I live in Charleston County, which is in SC-01), but I don't think she'll be able to knock off Brown, who has come off rather badly in my eyes through his campaign commercials. He has repeatedly used the line that he is the only one to "preserve our mainstream, conservative values," which to me seems more like a slimy, underhanded attack on Ketner's homosexuality. She is also, for anyone who is interested, the daughter of the founder of the Food Lion supermarket chain.
As for the presidency...don't expect it to go blue anytime soon, unfortunately. Not enough people in cities, too many military personnel (especially Navy).
Wow, Sean.
Eneagled? Freem? Grippy?
I gotta tell you, as coinages go, "truthiness" is getting a run for its money.
Here's what the genius Sarah Palin and her cronies did:
In interviews and a review of records, the AP found:
Instead of creating a process that would attract many potential builders, Palin slanted the terms away from an important group — the global energy giants that own the rights to the gas.
Despite promises and legal guidance not to talk directly with potential bidders, Palin had meetings or phone calls with nearly every major candidate, including TransCanada.
The leader of Palin's pipeline team had been a partner at a lobbying firm where she worked on behalf of a TransCanada subsidiary. Also, that woman's former business partner at the lobbying firm was TransCanada's lead private lobbyist on the pipeline deal, interacting with legislators in the weeks before the vote to grant TransCanada the contract. Plus, a former TransCanada executive served as an outside consultant to Palin's pipeline team.
Under a different set of rules four years earlier, TransCanada had offered to build the pipeline without a state subsidy; under Palin, the company could receive a maximum $500 million.
"Gov. Palin held firmly to her fundamental belief that Alaska could best serve Alaskans and the nation's interests by pursuing a competitive approach to building a natural gas pipeline," said McCain-Palin spokesman Taylor Griffin. "There was an open and transparent process that subjected the decision to extensive public scrutiny and due diligence."
Very Mavericky. And totally incompetent executive conduct. Why am I not surprised.
ZOGBY SUNDAY: Single day of polling, 49% to 46% in favor of Obama... Developing...
As a McCain supporter, this is nothing to get that excited over. I think pollsters are so far over the place it is not funny. You don't go from +12 to +3 overnight with nothing happening.
There is going to be a new 'accurate pollster' of the year award this year, and God only knows who it will be. The ABC-NBC-CBS-FOX pollsters certainly will not get it, nor will Zogby or Battleground which went from +13 to +1 in 5 days!
I think this proves how crazy polling is right now!
@Caredwen
Don't forget superstantial
Yes its true Barack Obama does accept public money-I guess I should have said taxpayer money, government money whatever the right wording would be.
I am hopeful Barack Obama does win and is as good a President as he is the individual who has carefully orchestrated a march to the White House, against all odds, in four short years. There is of course no way of telling until he takes office. However, as an individual he is very impressive-more impressive than John McCain or Sarah Palin in my opinion and the terrorist charges are ridiculous-it's a school board, for crying out loud. I worry about the long term damaging effects of painting a President with that label, especially when it is so completely untrue and there are a lot of extremely dangerous wack jobs in this nation who will continue to believe it. It's like a neighbor of mone from years ago who honestly believed Bill Clinton had murdered or orchestrated the murder of some fifty individuals in his life-absolutely ludicrious. Yet some people believe it.
As far as my projects, I don't want to give people the idea that I want to inspire fifty thousand homeless people to become writers-what I would like is for people who are in difficult situations to recognize their opportunities and capitalize on them as they appear and to work very hard towards self sufficiency-because it is a far better life once a person takes hold of it and really works at it than government assistance. Sorry if people feel I am a bit off topic at times. You don't have to agree with me and you don't have to like my work, but I am trying to make points while at the same time I realize the only person that's going to be my best selling point right now is me.
Re: Zogby and his magnetic pull.
What's really amusing is that I'm reading this just after reading a Freeper thread where they're complaining just as loudly about how Zogby is a complete idiot and has come down to simply pulling his numbers out of his butt!
@ michael,
I particularly am amused when pollsters report huge fluctuations in toplines or subgroups as though the population suddenly changed rather than their sample is screwy.
chris,
Can you share their in-depth and expert analysis that led them to such a conclusion?
Where is the link to the "magnetic pull" comments. Drudge has the info but it is not a link
Glad to see a general feeling that Zogby does indeed pull numbers out of his ass. It obviously has to be a screwy sample or something cooked because McCain has not broken 45% almost anywhere and yet he suddenly jumps to 46% overnight in his poll on no news and no major event.
There is going to be a new 'accurate pollster' of the year award this year, and God only knows who it will be. The ABC-NBC-CBS-FOX pollsters certainly will not get it, nor will Zogby or Battleground which went from +13 to +1 in 5 days!
Rasmussen and the KOS/Research 2000 have been the most stable - And now their party ID's are within a point.
@Matt W
Just go to Zogby's homepage
http://www.zogby.com/
Look just below his tracker numbers
pa john,
I think Ras gets the award this year. He has the most believable results, though I think his LV screen might be a bit too tight.
Ras and KOS, two groups that couldn't be further apart ideologically, seem to be agreeing on polling here and the state of the race being 8-12% lead for Obama.
This race has been unbelievable all the way down to that.
Sen. Stevens is going to be hung, but this story should insure he loses:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27372421/
Sen. Stevens' JURY is going to be hung! Sorry, Sen. Stevens.
SC will be closer than you think. The Obamacrats spent their summer registering voters. We would have a better chance to turn SC blue of the SCdems weren't still chasing their own tails. We need fresh blood in the leadership in the SC democratic party. The SCdems refused to follow the Obama model, the winning model.
Yikes Stepper, you had me going.
I was like WOW, I didn't even know it was a capital offense!
Typical Freeper comment:
He’s an “idiot” who uses polls just like the media does...to generate headlines and income. I don’t care if Zogby shows McCain ahead by 10 on 4 November. His polls are too erratic to be useful for anything other than Zogby income generators.
Surprisingly, many of the complaints are similar to what you read here, though of course without actually looking and thinking about the internals and if they make sense. Typical complaint (though not in this thread): "the survey from state X is cooked because they surveyed more Democrats than Republicans." Ignoring the fact that state X in fact has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
In their world everything is a conspiracy of some sort: all the polls are cooked to demoralize McCain supporters, the mainstream media is "in the tank" to Obama. Even Fox News is suspect to many of them. They think Fox is afraid Obama will ban them if he's elected and they've been too harsh on him. I kid you not.
HahA I was thinking the same thing Matt.
All I read was Stevens is going to be hung! All I thought was the same as you, Wow, taking money from the Gov't was a crime but wow, death?!?!!
Ras and KOS, two groups that couldn't be further apart ideologically, seem to be agreeing on polling here and the state of the race being 8-12% lead for Obama.
Both polls have had a stable range over the last month. Zogby is a shill. He's crying for attention. He had Obama up high before the other trackers, and now that they caught up he's going lo again to be all "mavericky". If the others dont agree in a few days, he'll go back in line.
He's an attention whore.
Stepper,
The story is about some pork barrel road...is the hung jury lead buried in there somewhere?
Actually I believe that the proper term for one who has been executed by hanging is "hanged". "Hung" is something else again.
@bugstomper
I think it may be a combination of the margin of error and the demographic correlations. Based on similar demographics, The Model figures that the probability of winning both Ohio and Florida together is more likely than you'd get if you just multiplied the probabilities together (or something along those lines).
Another topic I thought I would bring up: Does anyone actually think Brokejaw is going to ask McLame anything remotely tough on MTP tomorrow or just let him rattle off his talking points?
matt,
The jurry comment isn't from that story. From news stories in general, it's definately a possibility that the jurry will be hung. I remember hearing there is one person who is saying Stevens is not guilty. And I think they're in "recess" (don't know the proper term) because of a death in the family of one of the members.
bobnsj,
Past tense is hanged you are correct.
I believe the past participle is still hung though (for what its worth)
The Game. Nothing as tough as that brilliant TV anchor from Orlando that asked the tough questions to Biden.
And o boy, God Forbid anyone ask any tough questions for the Obama-Biden Ticket. Now the station won't receive anymore interviews with the Obama camp...
WATCH HERE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQXcImQfubM
Biden handled himself well I thought, but she may be the only one to ask anything remotely tough to that ticket!
matt w,
people are hanged things are hung.
the game,
I actually expect it to be tough. There are not too many rats left on the McCain ship that are willing to bring themselves down with it.
Michael said...
Biden handled himself well I thought, but she may be the only one to ask anything remotely tough to that ticket!
If you believe that the questions were so challenging for Biden why was he able to answer them with relative ease?
Michael,
I hope you're being sarcastic!
michael,
do you think that was good journalism?
Drudge is now reporting zogby one day samples early. lol.
ZOGBY SUNDAY: 'In single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama'... Developing...
LMFAO...He's reporting fucking one day samples. I think Drudge is making this one up.
the one day samples are half a sample size right?
The polls are three day averages I believe...who the fuck does a one day? lol.
sorry, meaning that, he averages two day's of sampling for one result correct?
Slicknick,
I agree, the funny part is that McCain is still down by three in the one day. That is like amazing news. Wait....
Being only down by three points in a one day sample with a really small sample size done by a really crappy pollster is...
GREAT NEWS!!! For JOHN McCAIN!!!
The one day sample will get rolled into the 3 day average and should bring Obama down to about a 7-8 pt lead.
slicknickshady said...
The polls are three day averages I believe...who the fuck does a one day? lol.
Everybody that does a threeday average.
"Nothing as tough as that brilliant TV anchor from Orlando that asked the tough questions to Biden."
Brilliant? She sounded like an SNL skit. She asked if Obama would make the US like Sweden among other ridiculous questions. The youtube of it is hilarious and Biden made her look like the goof that she is.
She is what Palin went to college to become. Someone who reads questions off a teleprompter that are written by someone else. And she gets to say good night to the sports and weather reporters. That is what is passing for a candidate for vice president.
Good news from the Obama rally tonight. NM looks in the bag if these crowd numbers are any indication:
"In Albuquerque, before a massive crowd, Obama moves away from the (politically incorrect?) Lone Ranger and Tonto analogy to a new one: "It’s like Robin getting mad at Batman," he says of McCain's recent efforts to distance himself from Bush.
A fire marshall puts the crowd at at least 45,000, many times that at McCain's roughly 1,000-person event a couple of miles away this morning.
Obama, meanwhile, is playing it safe and avoiding the press, with the sole exception of a correspondent from "Extra!" who asked about his grandmother's health, his reaction to the Jennifer Hudson's family tragedy, and why Latinos should vote for him."
All Zogby and Drudge want is your patronage.
Zogby gets a chance in the spotlight every four years.
seretse,
they are three day rolling averages, so 1 day is 1/3 of the full sample. The one day sample is too small to be trustworthy, and I'm sorry but a -3 result is still not great.
seretse,
Also a fluke peculiar only to Zogby, are that his days go from like 5pm to 5pm so each one day sample is actually spread out over two days.
I recall somebody mentioning that Zogby is a two day average. Am I off?
I think the one day sample is being reported for Drudge's sake. Surely it's not Zogby's methodology to report one day polling without averaging. Am I wrong?
No I am not being sarcastic. Biden handled himself well, but he was visibly pissed off.
The Game said: The one day sample will get rolled into the 3 day average and should bring Obama down to about a 7-8 pt lead.
FWIW, I wouldn't be suprised if the difference drops even lower, since I suspect the day being dropped was very favorable to Obama...my guess is the new 3-day average will be somewhere between O+4 to O+6.
eve,
did you watch her interview with McCain? It was, well let's just say, a little bit friendlier.
Actually some of the same questions!!! (re Acorn)
thanks matt, I suppose i could just go to his website.
Didn't Zogby leak a 10 point Obama day early this week just before his tracking numbers began to show a real gab between Obama & McCain? Is this his regular MO or something he just started this cycle?
michael,
I am just curious if you though that the interview was good journalism?
I am not setting a trap, I am just really curious.
I just saw on the news that the Secretary of State in Ohio has received death threats. Hmm the Republicans REALLY don't like to lose. The Supreme Court rules against them,and they resort to death threats? I guess they still assumed they had the Court in the bag. It's not surprising, consiering the tone of their rallies over the last few weeks that it would esculate to death threats. Who didn't see that coming? John Lewis sure did.
bobnsj,
Yes he has leaked other not so pro-McCain info recently... It is just clever marketing and drives people to his site. Not exactly professional, but hey what do you expect?
"Nothing as tough as that brilliant TV anchor from Orlando that asked the tough questions to Biden."
Well, the questions were absurd. Asked as tho those reisini items were really newsworthy. I enjoyed Biden's "is that a real question? Is that a joke?"
There was a thoughtful Obama endorsement from Cass Sunstein, a Harvard law school professor, giving insight into Obama's decision making process, and his process of understanding his opponent's response will be on various issues.
sorry, here's the link to sunstein's comments:
http://www.politico.com/arena/bio/cass_r_sunstein.html
prairiecomm
There was a thoughtful Obama endorsement from Cass Sunstein, a Harvard law school professor, giving insight into Obama's decision making process, and his process of understanding his opponent's response will be on various issues.
Link?
So does anyone think the DOJ is going to follow up on Bush's request and look into registrations in OH or they too smart for that now?
Personally I think it is shamefull that Bush would push this agenda Again.
Matt W said...
So does anyone think the DOJ is going to follow up on Bush's request and look into registrations in OH or they too smart for that now?
I believe that they will look in to it but will approach it gingerly. I don't think they will attack it aggressively enough for it to make a difference in ten days.
Nice article talking about the support from white voters that Obama is getting and flying in the face of what Zogby is going to try and say tonight that McLame is up to a 12 pt lead among them:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/24/politics/politico/main4544827.shtml
Barack Obama, the first black major party nominee, is positioned to win the largest share of white voters of any Democrat in more than three decades, according to an exclusive Politico analysis of recent Gallup and Pew Research Center polling.
The most recent two weeks of Gallup polling, which includes roughly 13,000 interviews, show 44 percent of non-Hispanic white voters presently support Obama - the highest number for a Democrat since 47 percent of whites backed Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Biden got off easy in that interview. Imagine if he'd had to answer such toughies as "What's your least favorite SCOTUS decision?" or "What newspapers do you read?" Boy, you'd really have seen him sweat!
David in FL
Biden was asked the SCOTUS decision. I don't know if he was asked the newspaper question. But then, he is assumed to be well informed.
Zogby is an idiot, and his polls are bogus.
The reputations of Reuters and C-SPAN are diminished for using Zogby polls.
1) You left off 'multi-grain' and 'President Bush please have a hot dog with me' as Colbert episode opening text, two of my favourites.
2) The Orlando interview... that anchor is very friendly to some of the right wing, extremist nutjobs in local politics here: Feeney, Keller, etc. You'd be hard-put to find a local newser here who isn't biased. In spite of that, I hear that the Orlando SLANTinel endorsed Obama. I'm sure they'll retract it once everyone sobers up from the office party in the newsroom.
Love,
me
(FL PUMA)
(Vote NO on CA Prop 8 - everyone deserves to be miserable!)
The Game said...
Nice article talking about the support from white voters that Obama is getting and flying in the face of what Zogby is going to try and say tonight that McLame is up to a 12 pt lead among them:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/24/politics/politico/main4544827.shtml
Barack Obama, the first black major party nominee, is positioned to win the largest share of white voters of any Democrat in more than three decades, according to an exclusive Politico analysis of recent Gallup and Pew Research Center polling.
________________________________________
How many BLACK votes is McCain going to get, since we are focusing on WHITES voting for the Black guy!
POTION
also vote NO on FL ammendment 2 for the same reason as NO on CA Prop 8
my verification word is 'lertme'
sounds like a Colbert-ism
Vote YES on Proposition 8!
No gay, no how, no way!
Mule Rider,
Look up the results of Lynn Swann's 2006 gubernatorial race, and pay attention to the black vote.
The Rally in Albuquerque was phenomenal to see. Particularly for a City this size. We aren't all that big, but 35,000 people showed up and got in, with another 10-15,000 standing outside.
And damn "that one" can give a speech!
And yes, McCain had a whopping 1,000 at the fairgrounds.
Is this good news for John McCain?
So much for tipping
@steve_oh,
At first I also thought it must be something about the model combining related events, but it can't be that. The simulation is run 10,000 times, and every time it is run the results reflect the model. So if the demographics in two states means that their results are correlated, then you might see that if in one simulation run one of the states has results going a certain way then the other state has results going that way too.
But there are still only 10,000 simulation runs. Each of the probabilities is calculated by counting how many of those 10,000 runs has some particular result.
About 7,400 of those 10,000 have Obama winning FL (and McCain losing FL), so FL gets a win percentage of 74%. About 8,100 of them have Obama winning OH, so OH gets a win percentage of 81%. From the Scenario Analysis for "McCain loses OH, wins election" we see that the exact number for the latter is 8061. Since McCain only loses FL in about 7,400 of the 10,000 simulation runs, there cannot be 8055 runs in which he loses both OH and FL.
It has to be a bug.
Vote YES on Proposition 8!
No gay, no how, no way, Sarah can pray your gay away!
John David said...
Mule Rider,
Look up the results of Lynn Swann's 2006 gubernatorial race, and pay attention to the black vote.
________________________________
Why do I have to look at 2006, when we have the 2008 democratic primary?
As I have been saying since I started using the 'net in 1986, don't feed the trolls. OK, maybe I started saying that in 88, took me a good two years...
MR-
Because you are making sweeping statements that are demonstrably false, and making the argument on a dem website - we are not freepers, we actually analyze arguments. God has misled you again, you must need to pray more.
Hay anyone told Ass Rider that That One is actually as white as he is black?
In fact, during the run up to the primaries the AA community was complaining he wasn't "black enough." Meaning, he wasn't involved in the same issues they were (except economic justice), and wasn't a typical AA politician.
Si I, for one, take heart that 95% of the AA community (and 75% of my ethnic group) can vote for a half white guy.
BTW - I won't communicate with trolls directly. So will one of you tell the twerp troll for me, please.
That Cass Sunstein endorsement is particularly interesting since he's known Obama for quite a while, being a ex-colleague of his at the (Right-leaning) University of Chicago Law School (where Obama taught). So his insights into how Obama makes decisions and how he'd run a government are fascinating (and echo things I've read from other people who know Obama well). In particular, Obama is not liberal, he's a pragmatist -- he gets one well with people of all political persuasions, and is happy to adopt a good idea no matter what the political leanings of the person who first suggested it are.
The link to the full text is Endorsements: Cass R. Sunstein, Professor, Harvard Law School
Hi freddie,
I didn't know facts were democratic leaning! Sorry if I actually thought facts were unbiased as it related to political ideology. Please explain why simply asking questions relegates me to being a "troll." But if I were in this massive internet circle jerk everything would be perfectly fine.
lol
looks like Zogby's server crashed
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49.4%, McCain 44.1%...
From 12 to 5 in 2 days..
That Cass Sunstein endorsement is particularly interesting since he's known Obama for quite a while, being a ex-colleague of his at the (Right-leaning) University of Chicago Law School (where Obama taught). So his insights into how Obama makes decisions and how he'd run a government are fascinating (and echo things I've read from other people who know Obama well). In particular, Obama is not a liberal, he's a pragmatist -- he gets on well with people of all political persuasions, and is happy to adopt a good idea no matter what the political leanings of the person who first suggested it are.
The link to the full text is Endorsements: Cass R. Sunstein, Professor, Harvard Law School
nickname,
That is actually one of the things that Obama has revealed that is sad. The "one drop rule" mentality is still alive and strong in the US. If you are a little bit black then you are black.
Think about this. He is half white and half black, but not free to go either direction in american society. We see him as a black man. Had he choosen to identify with white society and had he married a white woman there is no way he would be a successful candidate. That is the truth, it is racism, it is SAD.
Hi, first time poster, been reading for a while. Could someone take a look at this? Is this just republican desperation and craziness? Or something to really worry about?
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/25/hey-eeyores-another-take-on-those-polls/
This is only my second time giving a comment. Both my parents are from SC and my mother's side of the family is from a little town called Chapin -- 25 miles northwest of Columbia. My great grandfather was half white and owned land, one of the few blacks (or negroes as they were called then) who could vote.
Here is an excerpt from a book written about my great granddad called "Chapin, SC, The first 100 years. "...Chapin was democratic through and through... Even into the next century (1900's), John Anderson Schumpert, a Negro citizen who operated a very successful turpentine business, was known to cast the only Republican vote. His son Benjamin operated a sawmill and later established a lumber mill in Columbia. It is ironic that today Chapin is the largest Republican precinct in the State of South Carolina."
Both of my parents left in the 30's and migrated north. My mom later returned but SC is still a little slow.
MR-
Facts are facts, people with brains actually analyze them and determine if they fit their argument. Try it, you might like it.
Nickname, you must be one of those illegals. Who cares what you say anyways? You can't vote. Where's your Green Card? HAHAHAHAHA
Sorry, I don't know how to link.
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/25/hey-eeyores-another-take-on-those-polls/
a guess 49.6 to 43.3? Trying to put some drama in it since the republicans are eating each other.
guys, that is the sock puppet...
DNFTT
zogby's number make no sense. His sample is small, there is no way the electorate is bouncing like he claims.
Mule Rider, you idiot, black people always vote in extremely high numbers for the Democrats. Thus your point is pointless. As others have mentioned look up the Lynn Swann race in Pennsylvania. For the most part I would say black folks are voting for Obama because he's a democrat, but there may be extra enthusiasm (and higher turnout) because of his race. True enough. But... so what?
The point about whites voting for Obama more so than any Dem since '76 is important because it negates the theory that racism is holding Obama back (at least to any great degree.)
Michael said...
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49.4%, McCain 44.1%...
From 12 to 5 in 2 days..
Well, in fairness, it was 3 days, but it's still more likely evidence of problems with Zogby's sample sizes as opposed to evidence of a big shift in the national voting.
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49.4%, McCain 44.1%...
Not sure if posted. Zogby's server errors got my net messed up too...
From 12 points to 5 points in 2 days.
First off, lots of love to Sean for the Colbertisms in the main post. Especially the shout out to "grippy" - the original and never quite duplicated made-up intro word. Confirmation that my ridiculously geeky crush on Nate should definitely be extended to Sean.
Second, until Drudge can find a poll to trumpet that actually shows McCain ahead, his cherry-picking is laaaaaame.
cebnc,
That is trash. Hillbuzz stuff is worse than republican stuff.
How in the hell does Obama go from 51's to 49 and McLame from 41's to 44 like that? The previous two days of polling should keep Obama closer to 50 and McLame closer to 43 at the least. Seems like garbage to me.
@xena excellent stuff!
matt w.,
HUSSEIN is black! No denying that! He needs to stick with his own, since we bitter white folks cling to religion and guns!
freddie,
Look at the 2008 democratic primaries then talk to me about brains and facts...umkay!
I did you stupid fuck. Why not look at more candidates than just BHO as your claim is dead fucking wrong.
Josh,
Why am I concerned about 2006 black votes when I can look at 2008! Aren't the most recent numbers MOST relevant? We see two democratic candidates one getting the lion share of the black votes, while the white votes are more or less split! Guess who got the lion share of the black votes...anyone?
*crickets*
Fred
Give it a rest. This is the jackass that caused word verification to be instituted on this site. Don't feed the trolls.
fred,
You know what they say about wrestling a pig?
McCain and Obama has events in the same city today (Albuquerque, NM). Obama's crowd was 45 times bigger.
I feel like there's something I should say here. Maybe something about John McCain and great news!!!1!?
fred,
What were the numbers from the GA, LA, SC, NC, IN, etc. primaries? PA is one states look at all of these states!
Finally got into Zogby's writeup:
“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.”
OK, so I know it is a little more complicated than simple adding and dividing, but how in the hell do 3 day numbers of 54, 50 and 49 equal an average of 49.4?
Perhaps since McCain and Palin are throwing good time and money after bad in Iowa this weekend, they might spend some time defending South Carolina this week. It would make about as much sense. Who the hell is running the strategy on that campaign? Brutal.
Zogby doesn't make any damn sense. And I just don't buy that the race is tightening up when other trackers (like Rasmussen, Gallup, & R2000) don't indicate that at all. He's giving way too much credence to his single day numbers when there's only around 300 people in his sample.
It almost seems as though he's looking for attention. There's just no way the race is moving back and forth so wildly.
Looks like Zogby cannot even read. Is Obama at 49 or 46 in today's samnple?
Remember, Zogby is using party ID that is skewed repub by a full 8 [points over Rasmussen (Ras is using todats numbers, Zogby's party ID is from 2004).
There is something that should not be denied. A LOT of black people will vote for Obama because he is black.
To draw some sort of moral equivalence between that and white people voting against him because he is black is inconcievable.
To suggest that the black experience in America leading someone to support another black person's bid to achieve a position of power is the same as someone coming from the white experience of america who votes against a black person because they are black is ignorant and repulsive.
I am not trying to engage any trolls, but this is something we should recognize.
Zogby: "I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him."
Danger zone! A strange, magnetic pull is pulling Obama into the danger zone! Of 48-49%! If he cannot consistently poll at 73.1416%, he can't win!
Zogby's relevant! Not whoring for attention at all!
"McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead."
I guess those bitter,religious, gun clinging whites are coming home to roost! Ironically, you poll ass clowns won't believe this but if the numbers were skewed the other way around...well LMAO!
Mule Rider -
I have to say, I actually enjoy your comments. Always good for a chuckle.
I'm just trying to figure something out - if you hate what's said here so much, why come here anymore? Isn't it just aggravating you? Or do you enjoy being aggravated?
The Game said: OK, so I know it is a little more complicated than simple adding and dividing, but how in the hell do 3 day numbers of 54, 50 and 49 equal an average of 49.4?
That is a good point...even if you average 53.5, 49.5, and 48.5 (to account for rounding), you get 50.5. Why is it more complicated that adding and dividing...do they not use a simple average?
Even Nate said Zogby was the one crap daily tracker. He was not hammering the IBD poll which is more repub skewed.
Nothing like facts MR.
gregm and Game,
Come on guys. These are tracking polls. The only single day numbers we sort of know are the most recent. The other numbers are three day averages.
Matt W - I agree with you as far as what you are saying comparing the black & white experiences. You point out nicely there why the comparison is so flawed.
But I do disagree that a large number of black people are voting for Obama because he is black. Any Dem. probably would win 90% of the black vote in this election. Obama will probably win 95% (or maybe even more) so... yeah .. and the turn out will be higher .. so yeah. OK - there are... but I think it overstates it to say that a LOT of black people are voting for him because he's black... It has to be taken into consideration that most are voting for him because he's a Democrat.
That Lynn Swann example is a good one. I do not believe (for example) that Condolizza Rice would get a large number of black votes if she were to run for President with neocon policies.
matt w,
Why can't whites be equally proud of their WHITE candidate as blacks are of their BLACK candidate? No one is saying WHITES should vote against the BLACK guy because of his race, there are a million other reasons not to! But why can't a white person vote for another white person and this be considered racial/ethnic pride as much as when the blacks vote for another black? And NOT a single person has yet to answer this question!
Good point Greg. I had the same thought but tried to give the idiot some benefit of the doubt of having some other formula, but clearly stating those are the 3 day numbers do not make the average 49.4. It should be between 50 and 51 and McLame's I would think is also too high. I think he is screwing with the numbers and it should be closer to a 7 pt lead, not 5.
Matt W, these are the daily numbers for Obama as indicated in Zogby's writeup.
In regards to : http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/25/hey-eeyores-another-take-on-those-polls/
"I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week."
hmmmm I wonder which Union she was referring to? It must be the one that has a strong enough presence in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and Maine's second electoral district to justify the cost of polling each one of those areas.
Anybody have any ideas????
Are the Zogby numbers before and after his "correction"? Is he taking 3 AWAY from BO in his party ID and likely voter correction?
josh,
The primaries are the example that was being discussed the most (albeit by a troll).
AA turnout will be high because Obama is black, as you allude to. Those are a lot of people that are voting for that reason. Not that they would have otherwise supported McCain... They otherwise would not have voted.
I am glad you agreed by in large, I was wondering how that comment would go down in here.
The Game...Maybe the discrepency is related to the fact that Zogby is updating with results from late night and early day in each update, and there may be some ambiguity in what he means when he is referring to a day's results.
Fred,
Have you gotten those primary numbers for me yet? You can use Lynn Swann all you want but that was only ONE race, whereas the primary was essentially multiple races across multiple states! Let me know when you get those for me okay? LMAO
MR cannot even find numbers to support his argument...
Do you own research. As for your sweeping claim, look at Sharpton in the primaries in 2006. You are wrong in generals and primaries. OWNED!
2004
My last comment for the night on Zogby...it just seems too weird to have good poll numbers giving Obama an average of 52, 51, and 51 and then one day at 49 comes in and his total average drops almost to 49. Since it is a rolling average, one number of 49 introduced into numbers that have been averaging 51's, should not pull the new average all the way down to around 49. It just doesn't drop that fast if you can understand what I mean.
mule,
If you want people to answer your questions you need to learn how to be more respectful when you ask them.
To answer your question now (since you were respectful)...
The white experience is not the same as the black experience in America. It can be hard to see that if you are white. Whites are the majority and hold nearly all of the control. We are emerging from a painful history where blacks were subjugated to the control of whites and every step that we take where all members of society have access to all aspects of society is progress towards the ultimate goal of equality. It is simply ignorant to suggest that white people rooting for other white people is equivalent to black people rooting for other black people. I hope that when you think about it you are able to see that.
Well now at least we know how Zogby is generating his numbers - he admitted he uses a MAGNET !!!
that would account for the strange magnetic pull...
also, note that his #'s seem to tighten on the weekend
last Sunday was 47.8 - 45.1
do you think John Z might notice he has an apparent flaw in his model for his small weekend polling samples perhaps ??? duh
but it is shamelessly obvious that this is just a self-serving marketing shill for his premium service - what a toll IMHO
McCain serves his country honorably and gives 5.5 years of his life in it's defense, but you guys are fixated on electing an unqualified extremist who "pals" around with people who actually hate this country! Think about that!
Mule Rider: No one is answering your question because it smacks of White Supremacy and racism, with most here finding that, and you, despicable. You should be ashamed of yourself! You represent a time of hate and division that is long past. Please drag your sick, twisted ass into the 21st century.
I can tell you with confidence that blacks are not voting for Obama simply because he's black. They are voting for him because they agree with his policies. They are motivated to come out because he's black.
let's just wait to observe what happens with the trackers tomorrow to determine if there really is any tightening.
MR hates gays tooo, he is an equal opportunity KK member.
Zogby is losing all cred, with his interactive poll and now his terible tracker.
Phillies just won. Time for bed.
MR,
Using 2008 as an example as to why AA voted overwhelmingly voted for BHO v Hillary, since that is what you prefer.
Most MSM and DEM establishment had inaugurated Hillary as the DEM nom. at the beginning of the race. BHO was the outsider and underdog. Hillary, already assuming the nom. was at hand, campaigned as a centrist, believing, rightfully, that whoever was the Rep. nom. would attack her as too lib.
That left her opened to a left attack from within her own party. It ultimately led to her not winning the nomination. BHO used that advantage to the fullest. Most AA felt he best represented their best INTEREST socially and economically. They VOTED for him even though they did not perceive him as "black enough." In fact, Hillary had the support of a majority of elected black officials.
Yes, some AA voters went for BHO because of his race, but no more than, if not less, of white voters who are going to vote against him because of his race.
night, call when you get those Sharpton number mulie...
Seretse said...
I can tell you with confidence that blacks are not voting for Obama simply because he's black. They are voting for him because they agree with his policies. They are motivated to come out because he's black.
I tend to agree with you, but would caution against treating black voters monolithically. There are some that disagree with his policies and are voting for him because he is black, but mostly I agree and think the influence in this election (in contrast to the primary) is that many will vote rather than not voting at all.
matt w. said...
"It is simply ignorant to suggest that white people rooting for other white people is equivalent to black people rooting for other black people."
--------------------------------------------------
You are kidding me right? Speak of hypocrisy, double standards, etc. This is crazy! But at least in not so many words, you are speaking the truth! Blacks can support blacks, but whites who support whites are branded as racist! WOW!
sock pupper MR
get your arse to bed
my word verification is 'goriness'
guess that is the kickoff for Halloween...
Jason in da house
OK, it's a lost cause. Mule seems unable to understand context.
I am off to bed
Joe Benevides,
What have I said that was racist? What? Please tell me! Oh, I forgot I support the white candidate and I happen to be white so that makes me of course...a racist by your lib logic! And by the way I don't hate gays. I just believe it is fundamentally wrong as a life style and should not be given the same stature as a man/woman relationship! If you are going to pidgeon hole me at least get your facts right!
Blacks may be supporting Obama at a little higher rate than they normally support a Democrat out of pride in the same way most candidates do better in their home state than candidates of their party usually do. What is racism is when Whites support a White candidate simply because his/her opponent is Black.
do you think John Z might notice he has an apparent flaw in his model for his small weekend polling samples perhaps ???
There's no flaw. If you properly account for the effect of magnet, you'll see why Obama keeps getting pulled into the danger zone on weekends. You see, during the week, the gnomes that power the magnet have to go to work at their other jobs, so the magnet gets weaker and Obama's poll numbers get stronger, because he has anti-magnet mojo. But when the gnomes are there, they can over-power The One, reveling his true poll numbers that the liberal, anti-gnome media don't want you to know about.
It really has nothing to do with sample size at all. Or weekend response-bias. Really.
Mule Rider said "Why can't whites be equally proud of their WHITE candidate as blacks are of their BLACK candidate? . . ."
Conjecture on my part. While AA are not a monolithic group a significant portion of them share a sub-culture that has its genesis in racism and discrimination. "Whites" don't have a sub-culture. So, there is no equivalence in casting a vote based on similar "color".
The other part of it is that Obama is a first. Turning out to vote is participating in an historic event of great significance. It is also an expression of pride and an affirmation. Regardless of how one votes I expect that most AA want to be able to tell their grandchildren that they were then when.
Why the FUCK does Zogby use word choices like "strange, magnetic pull"? Is he retarded?
gen sherman said...
Yes, some AA voters went for BHO because of his race, but no more than, if not less, of white voters who are going to vote against him because of his race.
-------------------------------
I'll say! When you get 95/5 split of the black vote! Through out the primary process whites by and large were even split among the candidates! Guess which votes weren't? Voting against a person's race is wrong! But why is it not wrong when blacks vote FOR their race, but IS wrong if whites are voting FOR their race!
Besides the obvious flaw that Zogby states Obamas last 3 days were 54/50/49 = 49...
his further commentary makes no sense as usual:
'The poll, a three–day rolling average survey of likely voters nationwide, shows that McCain has continued to gain ground among independent voters, though Obama still leads by a 50% to 36% margin, the telephone tracking survey shows. [INDs O+14]
Obama leads among women, 55% to 41% [O+14], while McCain now holds a four–point lead among men [M+4]. Obama continues to lead among voters of all ages, though he leads by just six-tenths of a point among those age 30 to 49 and nine-tenths of a point among those age 55 to 69. Obama’s lead has narrowed among Catholic voters to 17 points from a 25–point advantage in yesterday’s report. McCain also now leads among Protestant voters who are not evangelical, as he maintains his strong advantage among evangelical voters, 62% to 33%.
Obama continues to win a significant 19% slice of the conservative vote, while McCain now wins only 4% of the support among liberal voters. Among moderates, Obama leads, 60% to 31%."
say what ???
how can Obama have all those significant leads in almost every demo except evangelicals & only be ahead by 5.3% ???
Me thinks that Zogby is cooking da books cuz the #'s do not jive - unless he only polled mostly conservative evangelical men while he was at his prayer meeting this weekend & failed to weigh them properly
bet Mac came close to winning the youth vote too !!!
but Zogby says that Obama leads in every one of the age demos...
he contradicts himself throughout his commentary & hides the internals in his premium service [of course]
DCM in FL said...
sock pupper MR
get your arse to bed
---------------------------
Okay...proof? Of course not, just more wild accusations!
John Zogby is seriously incompetent (and, yes, I was saying this when he was releasing polls with Obama ahead a few days ago). He had Obama ahead by a ridiculous amount with independents (about 30 points).
Now he thinks that the statistical noise in his poll is "directly correlated" to McCain talking about the economy. It's amazing that someone who is supposed to be a polling expert can give such terrible analysis.
Zogby was the most inaccurate pollster in 2004, and I expect him to retain that title this year.
(histocrat here. My livejournal openid won't work since the CAPTCHA.)
I sort of believe the Zogby numbers. As I've said, I believe the widening in Zogby was due to a "Powell bounce," which we saw much more in Zogby than in other trackers because of Zogby's skewed party id.
Republicans said, "hey, a prominent Republican is supporting Obama," and their views shifted. But over the next week, they encountered many more Republicans endorsing McCain, so Powell seemed less significant, so the bounce subsided.
This will be reflected by mild tightening in the other trackers, and some stability in Zogby, assuming nothing else happens.
Re: Zogby...
Seems we all like him when O is up...
I think the small sample, weekend poll, his D vs R weightings all mean something...
His first poll results with this track were way outside the other tracks in closeness of the race as well.
Tonight may be a good old fashioned outlier.
Tomorrow and the next day will tell.
Can't help but wonder why today,,, nothing happened!
This next week look for hyper-media coverage of Palin's rogue status... the break up of McCain campaign
AND... Palin's policy speech on her "experience" with energy policy (yeah right) against a backdrop of corruption in the bidding process on her, thus far, non-existent pipeline. (this thing is years away but you would think she is building it in her spare time!)
This week will be fun!
MR, the vast majority of AA are Democrat and will vote overwhelmingly for the DEM candidate no matter their, as has been pointed out in this forum on numerous occasions. Furthermore, not only are they overwhelmingly DEM, they also tend to be more liberal than most Americans. That is why a Republican nominee, even if it is Rice or Keyes, won't ever win a plurality of the AA vote. To continue to suggest AA are voting for BHO because he is black is idiotic and unfounded.
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