Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Beaver State, Oregon.
CASCADING FROM DESERT TO SEA, Oregon is simultaneously extremely liberal and extremely conservative, with a fair number of independents thrown in the mix for good measure. As much as any state, its overall demographic data can be a little misleading. For example, "gun ownership rate." The gun ownership disparity between liberal Portland and conservative eastern Oregon is wide. Oregon also boasts the smartest and best voting process, as all ballots are mail-in. As a result, Oregon has one of the best voter turnout rates in the country, minus the long lines.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain will run strong in the eastern 2/3 of the state, what is essentially the 2d congressional district. A high percentage of military vets live in Oregon, and Republicans actually outnumbered Democrats in terms of self-identification in 2004. The state doesn't have a high number of minority voters, but given the looming influence of Portland with its larger population base, Oregon scores out in much of our demographic data as not particularly hopeful for John McCain. The areas that are Republican are really Republican, white evangelical, "American" ancestry, gun-owning areas that probably rabidly oppose Barack Obama. It truly is the Obama v. Nobama election in Oregon.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Same-sex households and Starbucks:Walmart both rank 3d nationally, giving a pretty strong indication of Democratic voting, as well as underscoring that the liberal bastions of Oregon are pretty strongly liberal. Obama enjoys one of his higher fundraising-per-capita locales, as well as a realtively (top-third) education rates. Unemployment is in the top third, making the economic malaise a bit more pronounced in Oregon, and the state went for both Gore and Kerry pretty handily. Barack Obama will win the state of Oregon.
What To Watch For
Oregon's mail-in system allows for the field operations to see well in advance where the turnout seems strongest and where it needs a boost. As a result, if any of the candidates or their running mates show up with a surprise visit in Oregon in the final two weeks, you can probably infer that the internal numbers are telling the campaigns that a big jolt is needed in an underperforming area.
The other thing you might infer, particularly from Barack Obama's campaign, is whether he has a day to boost Jeff Merkley's Senate chances. That's the big race in Orgeon this year, as incumbent Gordon Smith runs away from John McCain and toward Barack Obama, as he has been doing all year. Obama stumping for Merkley might be interpreted as an indication that Obama thinks he's already going to win big nationally, now he wants both as many Democratic Senators as he can get and a Senator who owes him credit for helping him get over the hump by boosting turnout.
Oregon also gives me an opportunity to re-dsiplay for you one of my favorite charts Nate's done this year, one that many of our visitors haven't had a chance to see. It's fascinating, and you can see why the Mountain West is right on the cusp of many Democratic flips (NM, CO, NV).
10.14.2008
Road to 270: Oregon
@ 1:30 PM
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McCain: What about Ayers?
Obama: Your transition team worked for Saddam.
"Given Smith's campaign, what are the chances he might pull a Jeffords and caucus with Democrats?"
This is the year Gordon Smith gets put out to pasture. The righties hate his moderate to liberal views and there are not enough happy lefties to scratch their vote after Obama and vote for the party that gave them the war.
Then there is the economy and Smith's party's brand name being in the dumpster.
Plus, Merkley is running a decent campaign and is coming off as left/moderate.
I saw people post about Buckly's support of Obama. A few weeks back NRO's old publisher, Wick Allison, came out for Obama also. The article can be found HERE.
Seems like many of the serious people are voting no to McCain. It's apparent McCain is mentally unstable and people don't want to take that chance.
A couple clarifications about Oregon's vote-by-mail system.
Postmarks don't count; the ballot must be *received* by the county clerk by 8 PM on election day to be counted. If you haven't mailed it a week ahead, you go drop it off.
Fraud in terms of voting a stolen ballot is controlled by signature matching. The ballot goes in a secrecy envelope that has no identity information; that envelope goes in another ballot return envelope that does have voter identity information and has a signature line. A ballot return envelope without a signature is not a valid vote. Every return envelope signature - every one - is verified against the voter's registration signature. If it does not match, the ballot is set aside and the voter is contacted.
No votes are counted until election day, but at the opening of election day they can start counting right away, and the clerks usually have well over half the ballots in hand at that point. Our returns on election night are often quite speedy as a result.
McCain hires convicted Saddam Hussein lobbyist to run transition team:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html
Read peoples reactions to the article I posted above. Some promising tones from many conservatives around the U.S. and some not so nice tones of course.
Good enough for Saddam, good enough for John McCain.
Nicholas
Colorado has an optional vote by mail program that's used by a sizable portion of voters in my county. There's a website run by the county clerk where you can make sure that your ballot arrived. If it doesn't you can go to the polling place and vote a provisional ballot. Similarly, every provisional ballot has a stub that you can use to check if the ballot was counted in the end.
The one unfortunate thing is that longer ballots require extra postage, which they don't advertise well enough.
Alyssa
I have not engaged in the abortion debate because it's just an argument without end. And ultimately a religious one, which is just what we do NOT need.
But I do believe I have the ability to comment on it if I want to -- even though I am a man.
Why?
Because I can see a woman from my house.
(Kinda makes me an expert on women's issues, right?)
Can't help thinking that McCain's transition team is about as irrelevant as its possible to be. You almost wonder if he made hat kind of appointment hoping Obama would breing it up so McCain could counter punch with Ayers, or Rezko, or Wright. I think McCain is happier as a counter puncher and is unhappy that Obama hasn't given him much to counter punch from. McCain has run an odd campaign in a very many ways. Worst campaign ALWAYS loses, and McCain has run a directionless, indisciplined, unauthorative campaign.
McCain: Your committee co-member Ayers bombed the Pentagon when you were 8
Obama: Saddam Hussein hired your transition manager after he gassed the Kurds
McCain offered a capital gains tax cut to 7.5% as part of his quiltwork updated economic plan.
Two problems here...
Don't we want to have people keep their money in a steadying market for the long term? People will pull their money from the market.
Cutting these taxes in a non-graduated manner will not grow our economy or incent job creation. Never mind that it will further grow our deficit.
This form of economics will not increase local economies so states like Oregon to hire more state troopers or pay down their state deficits.
Then imagine being a roofer in Portland, Oregon and you know that no new mortgages or home improvement loans are being approved by credit-strapped banks.
We have to cut the deficit and create jobs with targeted incentives. I also suggest the reinstatement of the inheritance tax. That is a form of linial incentive to have the next generation working instead of being the leisure class.
Charles Crook said...
Good enough for Saddam, good enough for John McCain.
October 14, 2008 3:09 PM
lol. I can just hear the TV narrator voice on that.
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/The_Georgia_surge_continues.html#comments
Great news out of Georgia - black voters are turning out strong for early voting. This is pretty much a test drive for the Obama turnout machine (while he is not running ads in GA, field offices are still there turning people out). 37% of early voters are black, compared to 29% of the overall electorate. This means that black voters are more eager to get to the polls than before. Which means McCain is in trouble in North Carolina and Virginia.
OK by me if men want to talk about abortions. But I am getting tired of the concern-trolling "Oregon's system is no good because it leaves women vulnerable to domineering patriarchs." Hello! We are ALWAYS vulnerable to domineering patriarchs, with or without vote by mail.
@Markymark
Re Obama smearing McCain on anything -- he won't. He wants to stick to the issues. Let others discuss McCain and Palin's unsavory and similar ties, Palin's corruption, McCain's hypocrisy and deceit.
Obama said he wanted to run an issues campaign and HE is doing so. He lets surrogates occasionally nibble at the fringes, but he stays focused. And his surrogates always get back to the message, too. The issues. Watch them carefully, Very disciplined. He even has Joe Biden in tow!
There are two reasons for this, First, he gets the high road. And second, he stays wrapped in Teflon. (Just in case something comes out that isn't good news.)
I don't know how long Obama practiced law, but he has the instincts of a brilliant, seasoned trial lawyer. His caution is both legendary and almost invisible.
Kudos to him from an old timer!
that actually makes sense if petekent is a "PUMA" --- the craziest site on the internet has to be NoQuarterUSA.NET and they were Clinton supporters who now... well just go there and take a look if you can stomach it.
"Good enough for Saddam, good enough for John McCain."
Hey...maybe the guy just has an affinity for guys who live in the desert and carpetbagged their way to power!
Voice of the midwest
ha ha ha funny!
Here is how I think Obama should answer the Ayers question if it comes up in debate.
'Senator McCain you seem to know more about my relationship with William Ayers than I do. Perhaps you would like to talk about your relationship with Gordon Liddy, or your transition teams relationship with Saddam Hussein? '
Why is WV lighter? Was there a new poll that came out? Or is that Nate's model predicting... or maybe my crappy computer screen at work...?
ND and AR please!!!
If Obama wins in a landslide... doesn't the electoral college get updated too? I thought I read that somewhere.
I am a registered Oregon voter from Bend living in New Zealand. The vote by mail arrangement has worked really well for us here because we get our ballots just as if we were back in the States. We sent in our ballots two weeks ago with ticks for Obama and Gordon Smith. Gordo has seen the error of his ways by hitting back against Bush - I believe he deserves a chance to show he can work with Obama. But, if he ever shows any indication of trying to legislate against Roe, he'll lose my vote forever.
Ipsos/McClatchy national poll:
O: 51
M: 42
I have seen it mentioned that the secret ballot in booths ensures less interference from others.
I live in Kentucky and about 8 years ago, saw something disturbing--at least to me:
I saw a man hovering over a woman, presumably his wife, in a voting booth with a list in his hand reviewing her so-called 'secret' ballot. I believe it was a voting recommendation from one of the 10 biggest super-churches in the country near where I live.
I think a mail-in ballot could have been more secret for her, though I doubt it would have been.
Remember when;
-It seemed like McCain had a chance in New Hampshire.
-people worried Obama couldn't break 50% in polls.
-McCain occasionally lead in a poll from a battleground state.
-Palin was a good pick.
-when Nate's win percentage pie chart had some red on it.
???
lol at this comment from the HuffPo article about Saddam:
from Kuroneko-
"Obama's greeting to McCain tomorrow night: "Hi good to see you again, Senator McCain. May I call you Saddam? Because I have prepared a few lines with that name....:
@Marxwasright:
Personally, I wouldn't be comfortable living in a place where 80% of the population was white.
First of all, that's kind of a snotty thing to say. Secondly, it's not accurate. Portland proper is roughly 75% Caucasian, 7% black, 7% Hispanic, with the rest taken up mostly by Asians and American Indians.
It's a mistake to assume that white is white and other is other, as well. Portland has significant Russian and Eastern European immigrant populations. We're not just all hanging out up here sipping our white wine and over-enunciating.
Furthermore, Portland proper is whiter than Portland Metro, and only comprises about 25% of the population -- city population in the neighborhood of 550 000; Metro population over 2 million. Many of those two million are non-whites who live in the suburbs because Portland is bar-none the most expensive place to live in the state.
Beyond all that, having lived in California (Los Angeles and an Hispanic neighborhood in Palo Alto) and Washington, DC, what I've noticed as a near-universal trend is that "more diverse" places in America also tend to be more segregated -- so as a practical matter, one gains no particular experience with or insight into persons who are not like oneself without going out of one's way to do so.
The reason our state capital is overwhelmingly white? It's not a very big place. 140 000 or so; a great deal of the state government commutes from Portland.
It's true that Oregon has a checkered racial history: Oregonians avoided the slavery issue by voting to disallow blacks from even coming to the state for the first decades of its statehood. Parts of it were strongholds for the KKK well into the last century. But it's not the same place anymore, culturally, economically, racially, or in any other sense. That's one of the interesting things about Oregon -- everybody here is from somewhere else. My own family has "deep roots" here; we arrived when my grandfather bought the newspaper in Bend -- in 1954. Fifty-four years is a long time to have been here. There are very, very few fourth- and fifth-generation Oregonians, and practically zero who go back any further than that.
I also find it a little gross when liberals feel the need to prove their bona fides by saying shit like "man, I just can't live where everybody's white." It's the kind of statement meant almost entirely to prove that you are a better person than those people over there -- the ones who apparently are so small and low as to live in a place where less than 30% of the population possesses a darker skin tone than the majority. Whatever.
I'm such an election junkie I just checked CSpan online to see if they are (as they usually do) doing coverage of Canada's returns tonight.
Let's hope Harper's plot for a conservative majority backfires on him (this is their 3rd national election in 4 years).
CSpan as of now leaves this evening blank.
-When McCain used to get all Mavericky
- When McCain spoke to reporters.
- When McCain spoke the truth.
Remember when a 9 point national poll was an obvious outlier?
- When we were all relieved that no matter who won, at least Bush would be out of office.
Because I can see a woman from my house.
But can you see her uterus/naughty-bits from your house?
Thre is no substantial evidence of voter fraud in Oregon if we use that term to refer to issues regarding that part of the process that begins from the mailing out of ballots to the voters.
There is, of course, one major case of "fraud" in connection with qualifying initiatives for the Oregon ballot. The 1998 Republican candidate for governor, the notorious Bill Sizemore (he got 30% of the vote) and his then 501(c)(3) tax exempt organization were found "guilty" in a civil racketeering suit in connection with false signatures on the petitions to get issues on the ballot. A link is:
http://www.nwlaborpress.org/2002/10-4-02Sizemore.html
Sizemore is a man who has run several businesses he attempted to establish into the ground, and his "occupation" is as a front man for an out of state filthy rich meddler in Oregon politics, Loren Parks. Parks and his friends supply the money for these initiative campaigns and Sizemore takes quite healthy sums for running the campaigns.
Remember
- When Palin was a good pick
That was when the earth was flat and we walked with Dinosaurs, sorry I can't remember that one.
3 new Nobel Laureates in science endorse Obama!
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/three_2008_nobe.html
- When we were all pissed off at Hillary for not giving up but running till the end? In places like Indiana and North Carolina.
-When everyone wished Obama would fight back, pre-convention.
matt said...
Ipsos/McClatchy national poll:
O: 51
M: 42
hahahahaha
Mentioned earlier, a link to the Ipsos-McClatchy Obama +9 poll:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/725888.html
- When Jack Ryan was poised to be the next Senator from Illinois and his estranged wife was starring on Star Trek.
brad said...
3 new Nobel Laureates in science endorse Obama!
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/three_2008_nobe.html
wow
-When McCain was still running.
Oh...
When we were worried about the Bradley Effect---oh I forgot some of us still are.
Speaking of voter fraud, was it in Oregon that the Moonies spiked a salar bar with salmonella or something to sway an election?
Who or what is this 'Bush'? It sort of rings a bell and I feel as if I should know, but isn't springing to mind? Is it/he importnat?
-When you couldn't figure out where www.538.com was.
Alyssa--It's not your computer screen, went from 33% odds yesterday to 46% odds today (was 44% right after the O+8 in the state came out.)
Probably related to movements in other states.
Re: the death penalty discussion, I absolutely think it was right to needle Richard Cooey this morning. There are already so many checks in place with the death penalty that it does its job.
But it bothers me that both Obama and McCain opposed the Kennedy v. Louisiana decision, to go beyond "eye for an eye" justice; should be based on proportionality.
- When Steve Schmidt scared us.
When you started reading Nate's FAQ and after about 5 minutes you said fuck, I'll just log at the pretty charts.
- When we cowered every time someone reminded us that Barack Obama's middle name was Hussein.
Here's a link for the Ipsos/McClatchy:
link
51 to 42 is up from last week's 47 to 40. Looks like Ipsos is one of the last to still be using RV and not LV.
Looks like today is national poll day -- full LA/Bloomberg at 5pm and CBS/NY Times at 6:30.
When I used to be able to spell look
538 should make an open "Remember When" thread linked at the top so we can all go reminisce when no new threads come up.
October Surprise ?
PAC TV ad hammers the Democratic presidential nominee with the kitchen sink and more: pledge of allegiance picture, Cuban flags, Palestinians, Hamas, and — of course — Reverend Wright.
Ad is up on the air. Details of where it’s airing and amount of buy TBD
ANTI OBAMA AD
Link
"Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...
When I used to be able to spell look"
Well, log at that!
-When Obama's lead in PA started to slip away.
@Real Joe
It's not news. It's old bullshit. McCain doesn't wear a lapel pin now! Calm down. Obama is Teflon. McCain is yellow-stained teeth.
OH SHIT.
Paraphrasing: "Remember when Gov. Palin said she was in 2nd grade when I was first elected to the senate? Well, what I should have said was, she was in 6th grade the last time John McCain had a good idea."
Shazam. You get 'er, Joey.
Lol Joe. That ad is horrible.
real joe - That's just about the lamest 527 ad I've ever seen. Looks like some guy made it in his mom's basement.
CSpan 1 starts their simulcast of CBC's election coverage starts at 9 PM EDT
You can vote on PPP's next poll again over at their blog. Indiana is currently winning -- other choices include South Carolina and Nevada.
When Nate and Sean were not SUPERSTARS and would have time to respond to comments... :)
sfergus the Canadian Parliament will have almost the same standings it did at dissolution. No Harper majority. In lighter news, my 15 year old daughter made this: http://www.stevecats.ca
I think part of the reason they called the election was because they were worried that our neighbours would elect Obama and then the Conservatives in Canada would look like they were behind the times, so Harper rolled the dice, hoping for a majority.
Wait, did Real Joe switch from parody troll to straight poster at some point recently?
-when many thought PUMAs would cost Obama the election.
Wow. That 527 ad looks like it was made on Windows 95.
The ad won't stick. It's a rehash. I think the producer was that briloliant strategist Sean Inanity.
Real Joe - It's the economy, stupid!
Who givs a shit that Obama didn't put his hand over his heart when the fewking Wall Street bankers -- with the help of their friends the Republicans -- have turned our 401k plans into 101ks?
Vote for MS or SC in that PPP poll. They haven't been polled in forever.
when obama was firt to black for whites and then to white for black?
sdf said...
Wait, did Real Joe switch from parody troll to straight poster at some point recently?
hey
i'm not a troll
I just voted today (I am Canadian) and got a little laugh from the returning officer when I asked why Obama was not on my ballot...
- When Real Joe really was a parody troll.
True mc9cain. Nate and Sean need to have some celebrity ads made about them with pictures of Hannah Montana and Clay Aiken flashing across the screen.
forcefield said...
Wow. That 527 ad looks like it was made on Windows 95.
hahahahaha
it wasn't me
When Real Joe jumped ship
- When John McCain was a Maverick...
I know the town I lived in in Eastern Oregon was nearly 50 percent Mormon. I actually got along with them quite well. They were very friendly. The other 50 percent who were fundamentalist Christian? Not so much.
My last straw with Eastern Oregon came when I tried to rent "Fahrenheit 911." The local video store didn't have it on display, and I asked the clerk and he reached under the counter and gave me a copy. *They were keeping it under the counter out of sight!* They were treating it like a porno flick. Meanwhile, an entire wall of the video store was nothing but "The Passion of the Christ." At that point, I just shook my head and said, "I have to get out of this town. I really do."
When Troopergate was only available on TPM and, presumably, the Anchorage Daily News.
All of the anti-abortion vote is likely going to McCain anyway, so I'm not sure where PK is going with all of his abortion ramblings... (am I supposed to read what he says and move my support from Obama to McCain based on his incoherent nonsense??)
Besides the fact that I'm unlikely to agree with PK on just about anything at this point, let me remind everyone of some good reasons to be pro-choice in 2008:
1) Crime is down in this country over the past 20 years and the decline has been linked to Roe v Wade (read Freakonomics for a better explanation on this). It seems that children produced from unwanted pregnancies are more prone to crime than wanted pregnancies -- go figure -- and reducing unwanted pregnancies has resulted in lower crime rate with fewer "unwanteds" at adult age than ever before.
2) The world is already over-populated and we have not solved global energy crises and famine crises (and global warming will make the latter even worse in coming years)
3) The cost of having a baby is high, the economy sucks, people are uninsured or underinsured and simply can't afford it.
4) The abortion argument is really a religious argument about "when life begins" and don't we all agree that Church and State should be separate? Why should the rule of law be set by a minority that believes that abortion should be illegal?
So if you are against abortion, that is a personal choice that you can make in your life... but why should that be imposed upon all of society?
dave brodbeck said...
I just voted today (I am Canadian) and got a little laugh from the returning officer when I asked why Obama was not on my ballot...
hahahaha
Obama is not Canadian
The problem with 527s like that is that they appeal mainly to those who have already made there mind up. Though notice it didn't hit William Ayers? He is the one that the GOP seem to have settled on as colateral damage victim. so some evidence these guys don't have too much official clout.
BTW Joe that ad was posted to You Tube on 9/11/08.
when change you can xerox was the phrase of the day.
Oregon's white. Portland's white. Even North and Northeast Portland are, at best, beige. I mean, I live in North, and I cherish the diversity we have, it being significantly more than in the rural Oregon town I lived in for 9 years, but unless you're in a self-selecting environment (the African Methodist Episcopal church picnic, for instance), you're going to see 90something% white faces.
And, speaking as an Asian hybrid American, there are practically no Asian faces in this town outside a few ghettos -- ooops, I mean "enclaves." You want an Asian population in the West outside California or Seattle, you need to go to Salt Lake.
Ahhh change you can xerox, thats a blast from the past. Thosde primary fights do seem a world away now.
Remember when...
John McCain wasn't connected to Saddam Hussein?
Here is how bad this is for McCain possibly. Look at Nate's electoral vote distribution graph. That highest spike is pretty close to 390 EVs, and there must be more simulations giving Obama 400 EVs than give McCain 270.
yep don't they? and I knew O was going to win big in wisconsin because a blogger named poblano had predicted so at DKos.
"I just voted today (I am Canadian) and got a little laugh from the returning officer when I asked why Obama was not on my ballot..."
Haha, I wish that were the case. His charisma would be like a rebirth of Trudeau.
I'm voting tonight for the Green Party. It will be a Conservative minority, which I can accept given the real threat of a majority that we saw last month.
Just a random suggestion:
It would be really cool if I could click on the Obama vs. McCain map at the top of the page and have it go to a time-lapse/animated gif sort of thing that shows the change over the last year/6months/however long you've been keeping track. It would be fun to watch the different states change color!
Re: the Georgia early voting
A high turnout in Chatham County (currently the fifth-highest voting county) is good for Obama. Chatham has the city of Savannah and is critical for Rep. John Barrow to win his district. It has a high population of AA voters as well.
If you guys never saw this when Obama spoke to his staff after the primaries were over, it is WELL WORTH seeing. My favorite is towards the end where he talks about "BECAUSE we won, we HAVE to win now. We have no other choice." The other is how he remains so calm when the audio isn't working. So many good parts to it...
One of my favorite.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnhmByYxEIo
And Nate's supertracker graph has had Obama on the rise for a longtime, and isn'tshowing too much sign of even getting too much less steep yet.
+9 LV Obama lead in LA Times/Bloomberg poll, as well...
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/mccain-poll-oba.html
LA Times/Bloomberg Obama +9 among LV (50-41) and +8 among RV (49-41)
With Barr and Nader included it's 48 to 39
Comeback Kid!
LA Times/Bloomberg national poll:
O: 50
M: 41
LA/Bloomberg:
Three weeks before election day, Obama leads McCain 50% to 41% among voters likely to cast ballots on Nov. 4. In September, the Illinois Democrat had a narrower 49%-45% lead.
sdf and matt:
First! Though sdf does have the cool linky thing going on...
luke,
Early voting could be interesting in many ways. One way could be Obama banking alot of early votes and then maintaining a big lead in the polls. This could cause low Repub turnout on election day b/c they think they will lose. This scenario could make some states closer for Obama though McCain still wins such as GA. It could also make the margin in some states Obama wins larger.
LA Times Poll
Obama 50
McCain 41
otf,
Early voting could be interesting in many ways.
It could also lead to McCain favoring exit polls giving FOX the chance to give the "too close to call" verdict to some states (OH/FL/IN/CO and ??) like the did in 00. Big threat imo.
LA Times
LV
O-50, M-41
RV
O-49, M-51
It's interesting that some LV screens, like Gallup's "expanded likely voter" screen, LA Times, and Diageo actually expand Obama's lead in polling.
Here's the good news Real Joe was talking about earlier:
LA Times/Bloomberg Poll
/my first 538 post
//gObama!
What other State polls are due today and when?
Hey guys - let's go for 30 people posting the CBS/NYTimes poll which comes out at 6:30 EDT - we can do!!!
From LA Times/Bloomberg:
"For McCain, there were slight improvements over the last month among older voters and white working-class voters, and he has maintained an edge over Obama on Iraq and foreign affairs. But his overall level of support declined, in part because his dramatic decision to vault a little-known Alaska governor onto the ticket appears to have backfired.
More than a quarter of voters said they were less likely to vote for McCain because Sarah Palin was his running mate, somewhat more than the 22% who said she made them more likely to vote for McCain. In September, however, Palin drew more voters in than she put off."
rocketray said...
Here's the good news Real Joe was talking about earlier:
LA Times/Bloomberg Poll
tight race ?
hahahahahahha
Vanessa,
"Dowd proclaimed that, in his heart of hearts, McCain knew he put the country at risk with his VP choice and that he would "have to live" with that fact for the rest of his career."
So much for national security/country first!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/bush-strategist-mccain-kn_n_134570.html
I'm an Obama voter and a pro-life evangelical Christian. Obama's abortion position does trouble me, but I've concluded that at the present time Obama is the best pragmatic choice for most of the important issues our country faces. I'm not one of these people "personally opposed to abortion, but think it should remain legal." I'd hope one day that stricter abortion laws are in place so that no viable fetus with functioning brainwaves can be aborted (and yes, I also want the death penalty abolished). But I have lost faith in the Republicans to do this, so I'm voting my conscience on things I know can be helped: like improving our standing in the world, outlawing torture, stopping unnecessary wars, and improving the fairness of our economy. There was a time when Obama's abortion views might have been enough to keep me from voting, but there are enough other issues that are of high enough stakes that I will hold my nose as I pull the lever.
I like the chart of all the states, but it seems like it would make more sense to have the Bush Voters scale be moderate on the left and conservative on the right, even though the numbers would be in reverse.
That way, a state whose Bush and Kerry voters were both moderate would be in the lower left corner while Oregon would be in the upper right as being most liberal and most conservative. It seems more intuitive if both extremes are farthest away from where the axes cross.
the LA times map is so bad. It shows VA and NC as "safe republican"
what are they smoking?
Well said matt. Additionally, I have a conscience concerning poverty and our treatment of the environment. So abortion is one hot button issue among many other moral realities this country faces.
Look at the WSJ map for laughs if you think LAT is bad.
I am little late to the party, but can someone explain to me the significance of Mormons as a demogrpahic? I know they tend to be social conservatives, but there are so few of them. Why are they part of the 538 analysis?
Early voting centers to open in Lake County, Indiana:
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081014/NEWS0502/810140408/1324
Matt is and example that the religious fundamentalist (PeteKent for example) are different than people who practise religion (Matt for example).
The religious fundamentalist vote for religion not for the true issues.
Fifthgen - I would guess because of Romney, who won several primary battles.
C Buckley on Hardball (MSNBC)
Soooo...after the Ipsos and LA Times numbers is the old fuckwad still "right where we want them to be"?
@stepper
"But I do believe I have the ability to comment on it if I want to -- even though I am a man.
Why?
Because I can see a woman from my house."
Hahaha thanks step. This made me LOL on many levels. Piggygate! Oh the wit! I didn't want to bring it up again but thanks for "getting" it.
"C Buckley on Hardball (MSNBC)"
Yes! I'm completely fascinated with him right now.
Jeremy, RCP no includes Ipsos.
Politics reasons?
SE Portlander here.
I can attest that this election cycle, I have seen exactly zero (0) McCain signs. Then again, I don't go to the suburbs unless kidnapped. I have yet to meet anyone who claims to support McCain. Not one person.
On Starbucks, I'll add that people here tend toward our local businesses overall and avoid chains. I mean, why go to Starbucks when you can have Stumptown - the best coffee in the world?
For anyone saying Portland is disturbingly homogeneous, you are correct. Whenever I go back to Chicago, just getting off the plane is heartwarming seeing all of the variety. However, describing PDX as somehow racist is flat wrong. If you encountered racists here, that was your bad luck. The people I know here are so much more tolerant than the people I knew when I lived in Illinois and Indiana, it's not even comparable.
And finally, I've long supported the idea of the State of Oregon selling everything east of the Cascades to Idaho in return for a sack of potatoes and a few cows. Washington should do the same. Then we could pass some better Public works & civil rights laws around here. The people who live in Pendleton and LaGrande and the rest would have a state government that truly represents their interests, and we'd have one as well.
Oct, WSJ map looks better than LA times
at least they acknowledge that VA and NC and MO and IND are swing states and that PA, MINN, WIS and MICH are out of play for the Repubs
I think we should have a designated poll poster (DPP)---maybe each could have an hour shift.
I think we should have a designated poll poster (DPP)---maybe each could have an hour shift.
Other than Michigan, what primary did Romney win? Not sure he had any others.
He won a handful of caucuses - Minnesota, Montana as I recall, maybe one or two others.
He won Utah something like 95-5%.
Dario, It takes a couple of hours for RCP to include all polls. They have no reason not to include Ipsos, they included them last week.
fifthgen, Nate's multiple regression analysis showed that a higher percentage of Mormons in a state correlates with more votes for McCain. In some states with few Mormons, it doesn't make much difference. In others, like Oregon, the model is more accurate by taking this variable into account.
"To me, the mail-in system completely undermines the secret ballot. What is to prevent a domineering right wing patriarch from having the whole family fill out ballots together for him to take down to the post office? Or to prevent businesses from pressuring their employees to do the same? Or for that matter to prevent people from buying votes? I don't like it one bit. . . . I find it amazing that people who worry (legitimately) about touch screen voting seem to like Oregon's setup."
Yes, these scenarios are possibilities, though no one has ever shown organized abuse of the system, to my knowledge. And as people have mentioned above, anyone can withdraw their ballot after mailing it in for any reason. Plus, if someone is intimidated enough to give over their ballot to their boss or husband, why do you think that they aren't so intimidated that they won't vote they way they've been told when they get into the booth? This is all baseless speculation. If any of this is true, wouldn't we see some lean to the right away from polling every election? I haven't noticed any.
And besides, every system has its benefits and its drawbacks. You worry about every ballot being as secret as can be. I worry about challenges at the polls, in-person voter intimidation, lines long enough that people can't get in during their lunch hour, and people that can't get away from work at all to vote. These, in contrast to the hand-wringing over Oregon's system, are documented issues we see every year at the polls.
Oregon's system works, and it works well, and I'm sick of hearing the same tired arguments against it every time. These arguments, incidentally, apply just as much to absentee voting, yet strangely I never hear complaints about that. Must be because it's something people are used to, so it doesn't seem so unusual. Maybe you should just think of it al 100% absentee, then you wouldn't get so consternated.
The point is that the Mormom percentage is included as an indicator of whether Romney's support transitions to McCain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries_results,_2008.svg
Whether it was a primary or caucus is not the point.
He won Utah something like 95-5%.
-----------------------
I think Huckabee received negative votes.
sfergus, Nevada.
@Suzii:
"a few enclaves?"
Like the Eastern part (the biggest part) of Washington county? No, there are not all that many African-Americans out here (although the owners of the business I manage are) but there are large numbers of Asians and Hispanics. On the cul-de-sac on which we live, "Whites" are a minority.
BTW, isn't it somewhat racist to equate "diversity" with "percentage African American?" (Not saying you do, but some of the other posters seem to say this.)
As a bit of Oregon trivia, any guesses who was responsible for my state's unique vote-by-mail system?
The local Republican party. Honest injun.
I remember this well because I'm a life-long Democrat, & when I heard that it was proposed (back when the R's controlled the legislature), I thought it was a terrible idea & would prove to be more trouble than it was worth.
And I was wrong.
Geoff
PS, I was going to post on some of the other points folks here mentioned -- but I noticed no one else had brought that point up. Despite the current Republican party being full of nuts, historically it has had a lot of good people. We need to remember that.
Not to belabor the abortion issues, but... as a feminist, I think that since men have legal and ethical obligations to the babies they spawn, they therefore should also have a voice in reproductive rights issues. If we take away that voice, we can hardly expect them to be equal partners in parenting.
I got into a debate a few days ago with a GAY man who wanted to outlaw abortion; that's a different case, since he doesn't ever have a responsibility to a child, nor does he even have to worry about contraception.
Dario, It takes a couple of hours for RCP to include all polls. They have no reason not to include Ipsos, they included them last week.
Yet they have already included LATimes/Bloomberg, which IIRC was released after Ipsos/McClatchy...
"I think Huckabee received negative votes."
Hahaha!
"I'm in San Francisco but I visit Portland fairly regularly to see friends. I'm always shocked at how few people of color I see in Portland. It's depressing that there isn't more diversity there"
That is such an odd statement.
I always considered diversity to be of diverse ideas, not skin color.
People looking different is a poor way of judging diversity. You can have 5 people 3 men, 2 women, 2 white, 1 AA, 1 asian, and 1 Hispanic and you will not be guaranteed diversity.
If they have all the same likes, dislikes, beliefs, and education, are they really diverse?
alamala, abortion is a personal issue. Not a political issue.
andrew.
OK, so RCP are assholes. If people don't like them they can go to Pollster.com that includes every poll
Regarding those enthusiastic over three Nobel laureates endorsing Obama, I am happy to see people of distinction endorse him, but there are many people who are outstanding in their fields, but absolute morons/moral lepers outsdie it.
All one has to do is remember the late William Shockley, who won a Nobel prize in Physics, but was famous later inh is life for his discredited work trying to prove Blakcs genetically inferior.
"Other than Michigan, what primary did Romney win? Not sure he had any others.
He won a handful of caucuses - Minnesota, Montana as I recall, maybe one or two others."
Alaska, Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Maine, Massachusetts.
Of the 11 states, Nevada and Montana were caucuses.
If you talk about abortion in politics you not respect the separation of religion from the State.
remember when florida was bright red
alamala, if the qualification for having an opinion about abortion is potential parenthood, doesn't that disqualify post-menopausal women?
If you talk about abortion in politics you not respect the separation of religion from the State.
------------
Atheists and agnostics cannot be pro-life?
Does anyone know the Sony super ball SF commercial? The super tracker reminds me of that esp with the current steady Obama "weee" bounce.
here.
What do you guys think this means:
"CBS/Times Poll: Right Track In Single Digits
CBS News and the New York Times have a big new poll out tonight, with the head-to-head numbers released at 6:30 ET. The poll will spur a lot of discussion...."
My guess on the CBS/Times big news poll
Approval of Bail-out in low single digits.
Vanessa
Landslide
Right track in single digits cannot be a favorable sample for Republicans. I predict a double digit Obama lead.
Right track is from how many people think the county is on the right track.
I think the next line simply states that both have new political state polls out tonight.
I think they point to two different things
new thread up for those not paying attention
I have to say that, unlike previous elections, the first three debates DID influence the polls. Nate had posted a few weeks ago that they generally have not influenced the polls or the end results on election day. I would disagree on that for this year. Obama needed "face time" with the public so they could see him side by side with a more traditional candidate (white rich boring male).
I hope he does well tomorrow night so the numbers keep climbing in his favor.
In many states (including OR),politics makes more sense if one consults Joel Garreau's fine old book, The Nine Nations of North America or see more precise map that splits states more.
OR (and WA) are split East/West between real "nations" of The Empty Quarter and Ecotopia. States (on the more accurate map) that are split between "nations" tend to have "interesting" politics.
Too many colors John Mashey. We only do shades of red and blue.
"[I]f someone is intimidated enough to give over their ballot to their boss or husband, why do you think that they aren't so intimidated that they won't vote they way they've been told when they get into the booth?"
Ummmm...because no one can see how they vote when they are in the booth? C'mon, this is pretty basic here--in fact, it is the essence of why the secret ballot was introduced.
"You worry about every ballot being as secret as can be. I worry about challenges at the polls, in-person voter intimidation, lines long enough that people can't get in during their lunch hour, and people that can't get away from work at all to vote."
So have early voting, but require people to go in and vote at the county clerk's office or maybe a few satellite locations as well. Surely people can find some time over a period of a month or so.
"Oregon's system works, and it works well, and I'm sick of hearing the same tired arguments against it every time. These arguments, incidentally, apply just as much to absentee voting, yet strangely I never hear complaints about that."
In Missouri where I live, you can't vote absentee unless you sign a form swearing that you will be out of town or have some other reason you can't vote on Election Day. (This is true for early voting as well, which I do think is too strict.)
"Studies of spousal pressure in voting in Oregon have shown that husbands feel they were pushed by wives to vote a certain way more often than the other way around."
That's just as bad.
"Anyone who feels they were intimidated to vote can and should immediately call the county clerk to have a hold placed on it. They can then re-vote their ballot if they choose at the county clerk's office."
Not likely to happen in the real world.
"If you have a family member who is so coercive as to fill out your ballot for you, then you have a lot worse and more immediate problems on your hands than how to get your vote out."
You do, but at least in most states your problem isn't inflicted on the country (and world) at large through electing the wrong president.
Alan
...And don't forget, the Oregon Voter guide is one of the finest pieces of literature on the planet!!! Anyone with $1500 bucks can put in a pro or con for ballot measures. We a state flush with those who would be Jonathan Swift, ala "A Modest Proposal"
Speaking as a resident of Oregon... Vote by mail really is the only way to go. It solves so many problems, is cheaper, increases voter turn out.
I didn't read all the comments (300+ is far too many) but a number of people have already explained how vote by mail is secure.
I can add however that a few years back after a year working at a job where I was signing a log book dozens of times a day my signature changed quite a bit (Most of the actual letters vanished for the sake of speed) and sure enough when I went to vote the next time mine got flagged out and I was contacted saying so and asked to provide a fresh registration with a current signature to prove that I was in fact the one who signed it. Wasn't a big deal, cleared it right up, my vote was counted, and given how much my signature had changed in that time, shows that they are being checked.
"I didn't read all the comments (300+ is far too many) but a number of people have already explained how vote by mail is secure."
Then maybe you didn't get that I don't dispute the idea that it's secure after it is put in the envelope(s) and mailed (though it could always just plain get lost in the mail and you'd never know it). My issue is with the fact that you can't ensure that people are able to fill out the ballots privately. Can you imagine if we had a system like this in the machine politics era? Oregon may be relatively free of such tendencies (although I still worry about intrafamily dynamics), but if it were introduced more widely there is bound to be abuse.
53 - 39 Obama in the NYTimes poll.
14 points. Wow.
Alan -- have you ever voted absentee? It's the same thing!
Re: Abortion discussion..thanks to Marx and Alyssa regarding men weighing in on the abortion issue.
As a woman who is vehemently pro-choice it has always irritated the shit out of me when a bunch of middle aged men make decisions about what a woman can do with her body. I used to do clinic defense work here in Chicago and we have had varying groups of anti-choice (usually wing nuts) trying to blockade the clinic doors etc. Chicago is a very blue town and they have little tolerance for such crap so thankfully, these people were usually arrested. It never failed though, it was always, middle-aged, white men who were the loudest and most obnoxious. They still sometimes congregate in the Loop with their 4 foot signs of "fetuses" and I usually cuss them out as I walk to the train.
I completely agree with Marx's comment that it's not about the babies but rather another attempt to control women. These are the same types that opposed women's sufferage, birth equal, ERA etc. If they were that worried about the babies, they would actually give a shit once they were born, which, we all know, they don't.
I'm a former Washingtonian living in Portland and my work takes me all over the state - it's pretty crazy how different areas like Roseburg, Medford, and Pendleton are politically from Portland. I've definitely seen the extremes and have gotten quite a few fingers for my Obama sticker. But, as a former Washington Husky, the classic saying about the two major football programs in Oregon still stands: Beavers suck, but Ducks swallow!
Pretty soon we won't be able to see any RED on the Simulations Plot. ;>)
Blogger Dan said...
"Other than Michigan, what primary did Romney win? Not sure he had any others.
He won a handful of caucuses - Minnesota, Montana as I recall, maybe one or two others."
Alaska, Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Maine, Massachusetts.
Of the 11 states, Nevada and Montana were caucuses.
And Montana was really weird because the Ron Paul people essentially hijacked the Republican caucuses with the explicit purpose of costing McCain Montana. Romney just sort of snuck in there.
Orgeon?
re-dsiplay?
Also, "all ballots are mail-in" is a slight exaggeration. It's still possible to complete your ballot in person at the county elections offices, it's just not popular. They have cardboard "voting booths". And lots of people drop their ballots off at the official drop boxes rather than mailing them.
He should have selected Lieberman.
This has probably been mentioned above somewhere, but Gore only won Oregon by 7,000 or so votes in 2000. Saying that he won the state "handily" is not accurate. While the focus was on Florida that year, we didn't know where Oregon's 7 electoral votes went for a couple days after the election.
Re vote-by-mail and coercion:
It rarely happens as far as we can tell. I've chatted with the Secretary of State about this, and there have been no verifiable complaints.
I have run a ballot replacement assistance program in Multnomah County for 3 election cycles (this will be my 4th). I have talked to a lot of voters with problems. While this is not scientific, I have had only one caller who said she thought her conservative son-in-law had hidden or destroyed her ballot. We took her a form, got it signed, took it to elections, and got her another ballot.
Oregon makes it really easy to vote: any felon not in jail can vote, people in jail on misdemeanors can vote, homeless can vote. As long as you have an address where you can receive a ballot, you can vote.
There have been very few problems, and we've been using the system for 10 years. Yes, there could be cases of coercion that nobody is aware of--but those could go both ways, and they're probably not numerous enough to affect an election.
Oregon in general has fairly clean politics in terms of elections. However, we have a voter protection hotline and observers at the elections offices.
Please qualify your statement "the smartest and best voting process, as all ballots are mail-in." I live in Washington State, and mail-in ballots were a major contributor to the recount debacle in the gubernatorial race four years ago. As you'll recall, Republican Dino Rossi won the initial count and the first recount. It was only after the "discovery" of a number of absentee ballots that Christine Gregoire was able to pull ahead and win the election with a margin of 129 votes out of more than 2750000 votes cast.
Marx was right:
For starters, Portland is NOT the state capitol of Oregon; that would be Salem.
For another, the population of Portland is closer to 75% white, not 80%.
For a third, lots of us white folks in Portland are pretty darn nice.
Way to bash a city you've never been to based upon some shit you read in a blog.
""In my opinion, if you are pro choice, you "support" abortion. You have to, by definition."
This misconception really has to be cleared up. Pro-choice just means you support other people having the right to make their own private choice - that it's a personal decision not a legal decision. You can be absolutely solidly -morally-, that is personally, opposed to abortion, but as long as it doesn't cross the line to -legally-, that is, government makes this decision, opposed to abortion, then you're pro-choice.
Things which are currently decided legally are murder, theft, rape. Things which are currently decided morally are drinking, cheating on your SO, eating meat. Being pro-choice about something doesn't necessarily mean you think it's good, just that you think it's a personal issue not a public one.
Gordon Smith's campaign ads are hilarious. I saw one last night (I was watching Jeopardy! and I live in Portland) that was pretty much, "Ron Wyden is a great great great guy, and we work together ALL THE TIME!" It had Wyden saying the same thing, and I'm pretty sure they were making out by the end of the ad. Smith is hilariously desperate.
Also I find it depressing that Merkley the Douche is the best the DNC can come up with. And the only third party on the ballot is the Constitution party (which don't even get me started on how the extreme right fringe has co-opted the idea of constitutionalism to mean pretty much intolerance and isolationism). "None of the Above" please.
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