Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Empire State, New York.
HOME OF THE DAILY SHOW'S WORLD HEADQUARTERS, New York is expected to be one of the first states called on Election Night for Barack Obama. The biggest action in New York in the presidential election this year is Tina Fey's SNL caricature of Sarah Palin, which has impacted the race to the point that the McCain-Palin campaign is finally and belatedly pushing back against the sketch comedy mainstay.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
McCain raised a lot of money here, and a relatively lower number of voters under 30 live in New York, but that's about where the good news ends for John McCain in a state that will see its 31 electoral votes be called quickly for Barack Obama. There isn't a single other statistic in our chart besides low voter turnout that looks good for him.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Only three states went by wider Democratic margins in 2004, only four states rate more liberal on the Likert scale, and there are over 50% more self-identifying Democrats than Republicans. Only two states have more Democrats by self-identifying percentage, only four states have fewer Republicans. Many minority voters, a large percentage of Catholic voters, and the lowest percentage of military veterans all boost the Democrat's chances. While same-sex household rates rank near the middle of the pack, this is a big Starbuck:Walmart state. Not many white evangelicals and a tiny percentage of Mormons, very few gun owners, and only three states have a higher percentage of women voters. Barack Obama enjoys the command position in a state whose electoral votes -- due to the Empire State's large population -- equal Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Idaho and Wyoming combined.
What To Watch For
The federal-level action in New York this year is in the House, where at least two seats appear poised to flip R to D due to retirements, Jim Walsh's 25th Syracuse district and Vito Fossella's 13th Staten Island district. Just as both of those seats are rated "Lean D" by the Cook Political Report, Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl's 29th district seat is also extremely vulnerable due to a very strong challenege by Eric Massa. Outside of Buffalo and just north of the 29th is the toss-up 26th, an open seat being vacated by Tom Reynolds. If all four seats turn out to be Democratic pickups, only two Republicans will remain in New York's caucus.
10.22.2008
Road to 270: New York
@ 1:02 PM
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235 comments
First?
First.
Yay Perez Hilton!
Gotcha.
Bah.
I'm going to NH this W/E to knock on doors.....maybe I should go to PA?
Below the federal level, some mention should be made of the State Senate race, which is getting DNC funds and which could be one of the more important state-level outcomes. (The Republicans hold a 32-30 edge now, and a reversal would create a solid Democratic base for action in all branches of government.)
I'm going to NH this W/E to knock on doors.....maybe I should go to PA?
I'm going to Indiana this whatever.
Or does w/e mean weekend now too?
Clothes-gate, anyone? At least 4 more States just went from pink to either white or blue on Election Day. Thank you, GOP!
Hey, yall.
Some final thoughts on previous thread.
The Bradley effect never existed.
Theerfore it cannot exist now.
Please understand the life of an "urban legend". This is THE prime example. PERIOD!!!
Hey the Supertracker graph looks like the Loch Ness monster.
I must say it's hard to maintain a sense of urgency in NYC when you know Obama is going to win here by a huge margin. That said I will definitely be the first one in line to vote!!!
Love NY. I remember when NY and IL were swing states. So much better these days. Keep up the good work.
Sorry, "W/E" means "weekend" to me.....whatever?
And just to pre-empt any comments to the contrary, even if you find "first" comments annoying, they're about the most minor kind of annoyance in the blog environment (and considerably less annoying than comments complaining about them.)
They only occur at the beginning of a thread, so they're easy to skip over (unlike troll comments.) They don't cause confusion (unlike fake or cherry-picked poll numbers.) And they're not deliberately intended to piss people off and derail the conversation (unlike both of those types), so they're not going to drive anyone away.
They're a common Internet phenomenon that you're not going to stamp out. They're a bit of harmless fun for those who participate, and easily avoided for those who don't. Just ignore them and move on.
I'm very curious whether Nate's model, which as I understand it looks for demographic trends underlying state-by-state polling and predicts similar trends in demographically similar states, adequately accounts for differences in ad spending. Except for Super Tuesday, the primary consisted of the same contest being waged in every state, in sequence and in bunches of a few at a time. But whatever demographic similarities there may be between Arkansas and West Virginia, Obama is spending in the latter and ignoring the former. Remember also New Jersey during the primary -- Obama underperformed relative to demographics because he didn't show up.
T.W. -- I agree, that's definitely the most interesting result to watch for from NY.
Biggest Gaffe Ever (youtube.com)
This is the funniest, most painful gaffe of all time. People really should see it...
Finally - my home state!
Getting bluer by the day. I'm working here in the 19th for John Hall. Massa is a terrific candidate who should defeat Randy Shotgun Kuhl if there is any justice in the world. More than anything I'd like to see my local nutcase state assemblyman go down in flames.
To be sort of picky, I think New York closes polls relatively late, maybe 8 or 9 pm, so it won't be one of the first to be called. It will probably be called soon after the polls close tho.
Live from NY... it's Wednesday Day?
Actually, New York WON'T be one of the first states called for Obama on election night, because their polls close at 9:00 Eastern time, whereas a lot of blue states close an hour earlier. Here's a table of what states close when: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=ec
Phil....
I think you are onto something very valid there. Perhaps polling should also attempt to qualify and quantify advertising in any given area. This is a new and potentially critical area that should be persued.
wow, its great that new york will be the fisrt to be reported the results. I will be hosing a election night party to see obama elected for president. Hail all the supporters, hail Nate,
HAIL OBAMA/BIDEN,
Consumer Confidence drops a couple of points. Obama holds at 50-52%, McCain gains a point or two.
This runs contrary to every single Gallup poll since the economic meltdown. Also, NcCain has had three consecutive days of bad news. SCREWY.
Any ideas why?
Dash Riprock said...
Hey the Supertracker graph looks like the Loch Ness monster.
Wouldn't it be funny if the final supertracker looks like the Loch Ness monster with its tongue stick out and up?
New York could lose a few moderate Republicans in the House this fall who weren't expecting it. Expect that to happen in a lot of solid blue states where suburban and rural Congressional seats are currently held by a Republican.
Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota blamed Chris Matthews for the line of questioning and making her look like an ass. Huh?
The wonderful thing about being a Republican like her is never admitting you are wrong.
Ms. Bachmann: those were your words and thoughts. You believe what you said. No apology will matter. You chose your sword and you plunged it into your belly.
You owe no one an apology. You genuinely believe what you said, Josephine McCarthy.
We're also the only state that still uses unhackable nineteenth century voting technology. Unfortunately, it is the last year for the satisfying ka-chunk of the lever machine.
PorridgeGun, try not to focus too much on small shifts in any single poll. McCain is going to get more than 41% of the national vote in almost any scenario.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95957148
The idea of allowing unlimited monet to be given by any individual or group is entirely unacceptable. Exxon or T. Boone Pickens or Warren Buffett could give $500 million to a campaign if they felt like it. This would destroy the paying field and be completely unfair. Democrats should not allow it even remotely as long as they hold power. The $2300 rule is perfect.
New York one of the first? Maybe, but definitely not THE first. That will be my beloved home state of Vermont, where the polls will close at 7:00:00 and they will call it for Obama at 7:00:01 since the closest poll for McCain in VT has him down only 33 points.
What effect will the end of investment banking have on NY's politics?
@Mark:
Something I have always wondered: Why is VT so much more liberal than NH?
So it goes. Now the Vote Suppression teams inside the GOP are up and running. A blog noted yesterday that there were serious vote machine problems in West Virginia for the early voting--so what happens on election day--a real mess. Most complaints are that the voting machines were switching straight Democratic ballots to straight GOP ballots--is this somw unknown software bug, is it some form of Artificial Intelligence that favors GOP, or is it something more sinister like an algorithmn planted in the software to switch over just enough votes to give the win to the GOP. My view is that if these vote machines are doing the evil bidding of their Masters at Diebold then lets outlaw the damned things and go back to paper ballots/punch cards. If the GOP is allowed to steal this election by rigging then the Polling business is definitely screwed. Nate Silver and other pollsters should lead the charge to send all electronic voting machines to the scrap yards of America. If elections can be rigged then why should anyone have any faith in the hard working pollsters and their numbers. I would pose this question:
"How can a poll i.e. Fivethirtyeight, Zogby, CBS, etc. be reliable if the GOP can rig the election. On the day after the election, the critics of voting machine technology will ask -- How come Obama had a 7 or 8 percent lead and it evaporates into a win by McCain in just one day?"
BTW: West Virginia is not the only place this identical problem is occuring--here in Southeast Houston which is predominately Black and Hispanic -- the election judges are reporting the exact same problem -- this has to be more that a coincidence when the two states of Texas and W. Virginia are separated by 1200 miles have only one thing in common -- the same vote machines connected to the World Wide Web which goes right through the NSA, ATT, and Verison backbone infrastructure. And funny thing also, no white predominately Republican precincts are reporting any votes flipping from McCain to Obama--very odd that's happening--maybe its because of the Halloween effect we get every four years from the Diebold-Cheney-Bush consortium.
Jason Henriksen said...
Biggest Gaffe Ever (youtube.com)
This is the funniest, most painful gaffe of all time. People really should see it...
Agreed, we rewound it and listened to it about 20 times last night, laughing the whole tim. I kinda felt bad for the tired, confused old man.
WOOT! I <3 NY!
As blue as the sea and as far as I can see (except Lawngk Island)
I also love Nate's comments:
What McCain Has Going For Him
McCain raised a lot of money here, and a relatively lower number of voters under 30 live in New York, but that's about where the good news ends for John McCain in a state that will see its 31 electoral votes be called quickly for Barack Obama. There isn't a single other statistic in our chart besides low voter turnout that looks good for him.
I wanted to see Obama break 53%. I HATE POLLS.
Who would we like to be out on their butts more:
A) Liddy Dole
B) Norm Coleman
C) Michelle Bachmann
D) Saxby Chambliss
Obama live on CNN from Virginia now
My sense is that Reynolds' seat is going to go to the Democrat, who has run a smart race. It nearly tipped two years ago.
Sax chambliss is the scummiest of the scum.
America hating cops suppress McCain support by arresting his supporters!
LA Times story
LA Times front page photo
Republicans daily ray of hope poll:
AP-GfK
O: 44
M: 43
eric said...
Jason Henriksen said...
Biggest Gaffe Ever (youtube.com)
This is the funniest, most painful gaffe of all time. People really should see it...
Oh man I saw this last night on the news and twitched. And everyone's expressions of "HUH?" after he says that and tries to awkwardly, poorly talk his way out. Ugggh. Painful is right.
Orrin Hatch is a washed up old racist, the ilk of Strom Thurmond and George Wallace. He's delusional and can fuck off. North Carolina is tarheel blue baby! Eat it Orrin
As a New Yorker,
I can tell you that it's pretty rock solid for Obama--minus the grumpy old men (i.e. my boss).
Thankfully, our crowd here is far more internationally cultured and intelligent than Palin and "folksy" Republicans will ever be...
Liddy Dole. I used to like her a little until she made this comment at a speech:
"This country was founded on freedom OF religion, not freedom FROM religion!"
matt said...
Republicans daily ray of hope poll:
AP-GfK
O: 44
M: 43
McCain Surge !!
Did anyone else find this quote from the linked article ironic:
The Alaska Governor defends her intelligence when reacting to Fey's SNL skits in a Q&A with her husband in this week's PEOPLE magazine.
"defends her intelligence...in PEOPLE"
HA!
Hi
Might be some new, certainly some bs too perhaps..
tracks
Obama 49, McCain 40 FOX
Obama 52, McCain 44 Gallup (LV)
Obama 52, McCain 42 Gallup (RV)
state
Obama 52, McCain 41 R2K [WI]
Obama 45, McCain 46 Mas-Dix [FL]
Obama 47, McCain 45 Mas-Dix [VA]
NY being called right away is pretty much a no-brainer. =)
Here's a good discussion question: Which critical, McCain-must-win state do you think will be called for Obama the earliest?
(Don't forget to look up the times that the polls close in different states before making a prediction!)
On a related note: Let's all predict the time (EST) that the first network calls the race. =)
Seriously fun potential for a betting pool there!
Since no one else has grabbed the opportunity yet...
This is great news! FOR WARREN HARDING!
networks will call Obama the winner @ 11 ET
No, you're all wrong:
The fastest call for Obama will be Washington DC. Obama is up by over 50 points there
By "the race" I mean the whole thing, i.e. "NBC now projects that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States."
arnieh said...
Sorry, "W/E" means "weekend" to me.....whatever?
If you're still reading this, I didn't mean it as a putdown, just looked funny the way I interpreted it.
NYC is the kind of place I'd like to visit someday. Never have been there.
@kid g:
A couple reasons. First off, Vermont technically is not liberal per se, but actually quite conservative. Our conservatism is quite different than the national model, and far more in line with the Jim Jeffords model. The way it works is this: true traditional conservatives wanted no part of the government in your bedroom and in your personal lives. Vermont didn't leave the Republican Party - the Republican Party left Vermont.
That said, we do have Bernie Sanders. The reason for his success is that he spent a significant period of time as Burlington's mayor after winning his first election by 12 votes. Burlington itself is quite liberal, with 10,000 UVM students every year contributing greatly to that (if UVM were any more leftist, we {since I am back to be a student there} would call Marxists conservatives). With Sanders a household name for so long, he was able to win a statewide race his second time around (he lost his first election to the House), and when he ran for the Senate, he essentially ran as an incumbent. It helped that his opponent's wife had established residency in Florida to avoid taxes, and also his lack of platform.
We do have a Republican governor, one that will likely coast again to victory. The Republicans here are fiscal conservatives but largely socially liberal (those that were against CUs have for the most part been defeated or at the very least muted) and the Democrats here are more center-left than left. The Progressives are the third party, and they are leftist, but they have little strength outside of Burlington and have never won a statewide race (Bernie, while sharing the same leanings, is not a member).
While we are more old school conservative, New Hampshire is more libertarian, with the belief that they should never have to pay taxes for anything. Which, of course, is why their schools and roads both suck compared to ours. Democrats are quickly taking over there, though, and control the State House (governor, House, Senate) for the first time in over 100 years. At the federal level, both Congressmen are Dems, and Shaheen will be in the Senate in a couple of weeks.
I just voted early on campus at Purdue in Lafayette, Indiana. The first time I went, the line was too long, so I came back after lunch.
The line was longer.
I counted fifty people ahead of me and it took fifteen minutes to get to the front and vote. This particular polling station is open all week from 10 am until 4 pm. That's up to 6000 early votes right there on campus, just this week.
Why won't students and young voters show up to the polls on election day? Because they will have already voted.
Here's a good discussion question: Which critical, McCain-must-win state do you think will be called for Obama the earliest?
Excitement. It was called months ago.
OH SEE WHAT I DID THERE >_>
Saxby Chambliss deserves to lose because of what he did to Max Clelland.
Think of Clelland and Kerry. Clelland was a test run for Rove. He attacked Clelland's service in battle. He blurred the lines, muddied the water on the reality of what caused Clelland to lose three limbs in battle.
Fast forward to 2004: the Swiftboating of John Kerry. Both efforts diminished the service of Kerry and Clelland on the public stage. What effect has it had on 2008?
Most voters have no connection to that portion of McCain's bio because of what was done to Clelland, and moreso, Kerry. Rove thought he could have it both ways. But what he fails still to realize is that you cannot have it both ways.
McCain gets no traction from his military service. He can thank Karl Rove for that.
"Here's a good discussion question: Which critical, McCain-must-win state do you think will be called for Obama the earliest?"
Oklahoma! Alberta! London City!
Berlin!!
;D
games said...
By "the race" I mean the whole thing, i.e. "NBC now projects that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States."
yes 11 ET
New York doesn't close its polls til 9PM; it will be called soon after that, but lots of states close earlier:
IN, KY, FL, GA, SC, VT, VA, IN, OH, WV, CT, DE, DC, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, PA, AL, IL, MS, MO, OK, NC and AR all close before 9, and quite a few of them will be called earlier
AP Poll..Worst poll ever.
Read this...
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
Why are high levels of Catholics described as a favorable for dems, given that post Roe v. Wade this tradition has altered?
mysticlaker said...
AP Poll..Worst poll ever.
Read this...
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
ROFL
Someone on the previous thread said a huge Saturday for Obama rolled off. If that's the case then maybe they should have held off the Powell endorsement for a bit. Maybe not, it's all too convoluted
The just released FOX News +9 for Obama national poll almost makes up for it, though.
Real Joe,
11 ET sounds reasonable (and I think the winner will definitely be clear by then), but I have to wonder how gun-shy the networks will still be. They definitely acted very slow to call things back in 2004.
Still, I think 11 ET is a good over-under point. =)
@PLF
CT, DC, VT, DE, MD, RI, and MA will all likely be called within minutes of closing. RI is the most solid blue state in the nation, VT has not been close since 88 (the last time we went red - progressively larger blue blowouts since), and McCain has no chance in the others here. I think AL and SC get called quickly McCain, and it will be curious to see how quickly MS gets called.
I'm hoping for a very early election night call. I can't handle 2000 again, that's for sure.
If Obama wins Florida, VA, NC, & PA... we could know that pretty darn early. It'll be pretty obvious Obama won at that point. How would that effect west coast turn out where the polls are still open?
And would the networks call the whole deal for Obama at that point or do they wait until the west coast polls are closed?
Is it just me or does Christopher Buckley look/sound like a charachiture of a northeast elitest?
"Why are high levels of Catholics described as a favorable for dems, given that post Roe v. Wade this tradition has altered?"
This should probably be purple, you're right. Catholics are a swing group, though, rather than even being a soft part of the GOP coalition. They'll probably go for Obama by a fair margin this year (along with the rest of the country).
Obama 47, McCain 45 Mas-Dix [VA]
A swing of five points (from McCain +3) from MD's previous poll three weeks ago. This leaves ARG as the only pollster showing McCain with any sort of lead there.
mysticlaker - that did make me laugh. Basically, they just knock off 5-9% of Obama's potential voters (unmotivated, I suppose ;-)), let McCain keep all his potential voters and Bob's your uncle. Garbage poll.
What's happened to AP? Is Ron Fournier involved in this poll by any chance?
"New York doesn't close its polls til 9PM; it will be called soon after that, but lots of states close earlier:
IN, KY, FL, GA, SC, VT, VA, IN, OH, WV, CT, DE, DC, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, PA, AL, IL, MS, MO, OK, NC and AR all close before 9, and quite a few of them will be called earlier"
I was fiddling with 270towin and the closing times earlier.
Obama will need Virginia to be called by 10 p.m. in order to have his victory sealed when the West Coast polls close (and are immediately called for him).
Virginia has a ton of early voting, so I suspect they'll be counting pretty fast.
So the question is, in the traditional flowerly graphic proclaiming him to be the 44th(?) president, will they go with tradition and use his middle name?
Fatmop....if you had ever visited NY, you would know that W/E means weekend there. ;>)
Eric:
I've followed Orrin Hatch's career. He's solidly right-wing, of course, but unless you can cite specific obviously racist remarks (and actually, even if you can cite a few), I believe you're severely assassinating his character. No way is he an unreconstructed segregationist and supporter of terrorism against blacks like Strom Thurmond and George Wallace were. And for all his right-wing bloviation, he is friends with Edward Kennedy and has co-sponsored some bipartisan legislation. So as much as his usual propaganda campaign annoys me, I think that for a Senator from Utah, you could do far worse.
@foregone,
We (Catholics) are not a solid block like Jews or African-Americans, and never have been, so I have no idea how we get called a swing demographic every time.
As for pro-life, the death penalty and torture are also issues for good Catholics, as are taking care of the poor. Christ never mentioned abortion but he did mention everything I listed.
Why are high levels of Catholics described as a favorable for dems, given that post Roe v. Wade this tradition has altered?
Because most Catholics traditionally vote Democrat, and are not monolithic in voting strictly pro-life. Reality is most Catholics are in step with the democratic platform on everything but Abortion. See: Bob Casey Jr.
Assuming that McCains come back in PA fails then Virginia is the key state. If Obama wins VA (which closes at 7 PM), then all he has to do is win the Kerry states + IA. He could afford to lose both CO and NM if he wins Virginia.
So if when they call Virginia it will more or less mean hes got it, since the other states involved are going heavily for Obama.
arnieh said...
Fatmop....if you had ever visited NY, you would know that W/E means weekend there. ;>)
LOL.
Or wait does that mean "Lead on, Louie" in NYC speak?
Intrade has McCain down to 13.1%
Alice Krige: "Watch, as your futures vanish"
The networks have been rather reticent to project beyond 264 EVs for Obama. I guess they do not want the grief from Schmidt and Davis in the weekly conference call.
However, will there still be nervousness to project a state in one column or the other in this election? We all remember the disclaimers on election night in '04.
The networks likely are not going to call a state for one candidate or the other without 50% of the vote being tallied overall. Bellwether counties will be set aside again, even though they are a good indicator.
Automatic calls of states at the top of the hour will happen, but states with margins of less than 55% for he leading candidate without 50% of the votes being in overall.
I think bellwethers matter. Exit polls matter. Florida 200 was a fluke. Show some common sense and call the state if the exit polls are beyond the projections.
It is common sense.
Mark,
I agree that Catholics are not a monolithic voting block (although they once were), and in a way are a microcosm of society.
Just a quick note from the UK.
Thank you Nate and Sean and all of the commentors (commentators?) for such intelligent, reasoned and entertaining contributions to this election.
I have been rooting for Obama for some time now for equally strong push and pull reasons. What happens on your side of the Pond DOES impact us oon this side, as recent economic events have proven. I only hope he isn't going to be a Tony Blair of his time. Still, the alternative is even more scary.
One (only semi-serious) question - do you think that the UN are going to have election observers on the ground as happens in emerging democracies around the world? Not saying at all that you are "emerging", but given GOP tactics, it sometimes feels that you might be in danger of regressing. And, given my love for your country, I hate to see that hypocrisy in action from the Repubs.
Keep up the good work, peeps.
"will they go with tradition and use his middle name?"
YES! While kicking that door in.
inkstain said..
"So the question is, in the traditional flowerly graphic proclaiming him to be the 44th(?) president, will they go with tradition and use his middle name?"
Events my boy...events. You guys are a little too confident.
Here is the recent AP/GFK poll offers some contradiction.....
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats
from The Associated PressThe AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
October 22, 2008 12:51 PM
foregone,
Give us a Kennedy and we'll be monolithic. Otherwise, not so much. :-)
It's so frustrating living in one of those (potentially) two remaining GOP congressional districts. I'm in the 3rd CD, and we've been stuck with Peter King for way too long. The local Dems didn't feel the need to run a credible candidate this cycle (no offense, Graham Long, but there were better options...), so we're likely to be stuck with him for at least another term despite the fact that Obama will likely carry our district in this year's wave.
"As for pro-life, the death penalty and torture are also issues for good Catholics, as are taking care of the poor. Christ never mentioned abortion but he did mention everything I listed."
Bad news for Republicans. 63% of Catholics consider themselves pro-choice. 71% are anti-death penalty.
Each number is up 10+% from 2000.
That being said, it is not a monolithic vote but tends to break Democratic.
I think Virginia might be called fairly quickly. I don't think its going to be withion a polling MOE in the end.
The interesting thing might be the red states that aren't called quickly, that spell trouble for McCain. Places like maybe Georgia or North Carolina. Never mind if Obama doesn't win them, if they aren't called quickly, it could be a long night for McCain.
Seriously, the new AP-GfK poll flies in the face of literally every poll I've seen. For example:
"A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even."
In what universe is that even remotely true? Ron Fournier, propaganda artist, strikes again.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081022/ap_on_el_pr/ap_poll_presidential_race
Apropos of InkStain's comment on polls and vote tabulation:
Just how and when are the early votes counted?
Given that there will likely be record turnout (and likely there has already been record EARLY turnout), shouldn't states with early voting already have those numbers before election day and be ready to announce them when the polls close?
Does anyone know, for certain, how that's going to be handled?
Thanks!
@ Mark:
Thanks. I'm still not sure if I understand the root of the difference in the politics though. What I mean is there seems to be an underlying demographic difference between the states that is counterintuitive, given that NH is closer to Boston. My understanding from what you wrote is that both states are inherently libertarian for the most part, except VM also has Burlington and UVM which are left of left. But you could argue that NH has Hanover.
"However, will there still be nervousness to project a state in one column or the other in this election?"
Yes. A ton. Turnout and demographics have shifted so strongly in this election that they'll be very nervous about using historical trends for projections.
IBD/TIPP tracking poll...
O: 45.7
M: 42.0
Best part is McCain leading with 18-24 year olds (53-43%).
Really - some of these polls are beyond ridiculous.
I found out the major problem with the poll...
18-34 26%35-44 17%45-64 38%65+ 19%
RCP was quick in including that dubious AP poll in its average
From gallup via TPM:
10%
Along with their daily horse race numbers, Gallup is also tracking how many voters say they've already voted, either by absentee or early voting in their states. As of today, the percentage of registered voters is at 10% who say they've already voted. Bear in mind that not all registered voters vote -- in fact a lot of them don't. So the percentage of the 2008 electorate that has already cast a ballot is certainly higher than 10%.
I think the exit polls may confound an early call to the election because they just may show a tilt to Mc. O's definitely had the vote early message out and I know OH voters (at least in Cleveland) want to vote early to avoid GOP antics. The suburbanites want to vote in person because they like it and there isn't usually a crush at the polls.
So the networks will get the early partial results from absentee/early vote counts (likely strong Obama) with exit polls possibly leaning Mc and they'll have collective flashbacks to 2000, which ought to provide for some interesting viewing at the least!
The NE results will be a no brainer, of course. So they really won't be able to call until they get a handle on VA, NC and MO.
Looks like Mark Warner is enjoying all the attention he's getting at the Obama rallies too. Warner might be popular but he's probably never experienced the kind of energy that happens at an Obama event.
I found this the other day: Catholics for Obama.
We are heading to a Reagan-like landslide and an FDR-type realignment in terms of policies.
Has there ever been such a huge contrast between a soulless campaign devoid of ideas and one filled with energy and decisiveness?
'Eric said...
Who would we like to be out on their butts more:
A) Liddy Dole
B) Norm Coleman
C) Michelle Bachmann
D) Saxby Chambliss'
E) Mitch McConnell
Being from Ky, I add and vote 'E'; though 'D' is probably higher on the scum-scale.
Liberal_defender.
If Warner had agreed to be Obama's VP Obama would be 15 points up.
Warner will get about 65% in VA.
I think the exit polls may confound an early call to the election because they just may show a tilt to Mc. O's definitely had the vote early message out and I know OH voters (at least in Cleveland) want to vote early to avoid GOP antics. The suburbanites want to vote in person because they like it and there isn't usually a crush at the polls.
good shout, and means that there may be money to be made gambling on the results.
kid g,
Our politics evolved different here than in NH. For one, essentially the Democratic Party did not exist here for about 100 years, as Vermont has never had slavery (the only East Coast state to say that - going back to our days as a Republic) and they were drawn to the Republicans. Vermont and Maine are the only two states that voted for Alf Landon.
Within the Republican Party, there were two wings, liberal and conservative, with the liberals essentially becoming today's Democrats. Before the 60s, the primary for the R's was effectively the general.
The fact that the Republican Party here had a liberal wing until the 1970s and that even without it the major Republican figures were moderate rather than conservative tempered politics here.
Oh, and Burlington is way larger than Hanover, and New Hampshire as a whole is much bigger than Vermont. Vermont has only 600K, with 1/6th of that being in Chittenden County (home to Burlington). Burlington inherently makes the state at least centrist, as you cannot win statewide without at least a respectable showing here.
At least 1 problem with the AP poll:
Census age weightings (from nate numbers):
18-34 26%
35-44 17%
45-64 38%
65+ 19%
Read D4 from poll (LV):
18-29: 15
30-49: 40
50-64: 25
65+ 20
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf
as comparison dkos weightings:
18-29 198 (18%)
30-44 350 (32%)
45-59 308 (28%)
60+ 244 (22%)
Off topic but I can't resist. What is the big fuss over the RNC spending 150K on Sarah Palin's wardrobe? After all, once you buy (Caribou) Barbie, don't you have to purchase all of her accessories, too?
"However, will there still be nervousness to project a state in one column or the other in this election?"
Dole-Clinton
@yiannis:
Certainly not in my lifetime. Half of American politics is officially in the toilet.
I'm very curious whether Nate's model, which as I understand it looks for demographic trends underlying state-by-state polling and predicts similar trends in demographically similar states, adequately accounts for differences in ad spending.
One variable I believe Nate used in the primary, was the number of campaign stops by each candidate, which should correlate with ad spending. Not sure if this incorporated in any way into the 538 regression for the presidential however.
New Hampshire just realized a little late that the Republican Party moved right out from under them.
And our roads are fine, compared to New York's.
To quote Garrison Keillor's Ode to New Hampshire:
Here's to the State made of granite.
God who created it, ran it.
Compared to which, Maine
is just mosquitos and rain,
and Vermont is a whole other planet.
"Yes. A ton. Turnout and demographics have shifted so strongly in this election that they'll be very nervous about using historical trends for projections."
Yes, true. This election may redefine the assumptions of what are and are not bellwether precincts or counties across the country.
We have been looking at places like Bucks County, PA and Macomb, MI as bellwethers for 50 years now. Things change. Demographics shift. The future pundits have to find the new bellwethers.
I can assure you that they are not in the Northeast and Midwest, but in the diversity rich areas of growth in the Rocky Mountain states and New South.
We may be witnessing a generational and demographic shift due to multiple factors that affects how we analyze politics for the next fifty years.
And 45% evagenlical!
The internals of this poll are great. Note the geographic setup:
21% NE
23% MW
34% South
21% West
or as dkos break down does it:
Northeast 245 (22%)
South 314 (29%)
Midwest 308 (28%)
West 233 (21%)
Yiannis. Maybe in VA. I'm not quite sure though for the rest of the U.S. though I'm no expert. Knowing what we know about McCain putting all his eggs in PA the Biden choice seems so logical now since he's from Scranton, a region Obama is relying on to put him over the edge in the state.
@Mark:
I am officially enlightened :) Thanks.
Over the last 8 years, Bush wrapped dynamite around the republican brand. Over the last 8 weeks McCain lit the match...
This is starting to make me so mad...I hate these badly designed polls. Where are my cnn battlegrounds?
In some ways I like Warner, and I think if Obama went down this year, he would be a frontrunner for 2012. BUT he is a touch too moderate and not in Obama's league as far as charsima goes.
"Dole-Clinton"
You are thinking pre-2000, inkstain. The fear to project and standards in doing so came with Bush-Gore/Florida 2000.
Dole-Clinton was over by the 10 PM news.
I just think they are going to be cautious, but realistic, this year.
Drudge: AP SHOCK POLL
The first states to close completely, at 7PM Eastern: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia.
The only locks of those to be called early will be Vermont for Obama. If Kentucky and or South Carolina aren't called early for McCain it's probably very bad news for him. After FL in 2000 networks are far more conservative in calling races. If Virginia can get called within a half hour of closing this will be effectively an Obama landslide in the Electoral College.
@voiceofthemidwest:
To add to your last remark, I think a severe economic downturn like we are about to see in the next few years will cause a lot of displacement as people migrate to the new job-rich areas. It will be interesting to witness.
AP is probably wrong, but all the polls average out.
The outliers for Obama will cancel out with the outliers for McCain....
From Ben Smith:
Just off the press release wire:
HOUSTON, Oct. 22 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Dr. K.A. Paul, the man the New Republic magazine called the world's most popular Christian evangelist, today endorsed Senator Barack Obama for President of the U.S. ...
"Number one, speaking from an evangelical perspective, the current administration, I believe, has delayed the second coming of Jesus," he said.
To give Drudge credit, for the last 12 hours he was hyping an Obama landslide, so he's shifted a bit.
eric, if I could pick any endangered GOP incumbent, I'd take McConnell. But from your list, definitely the execrable Chambliss should go. Sweet revenge for the chicken hawk Chambliss conflating genuine war hero Max Cleland with Osama bin Laden.
West Virginia - Rainmaker (one week old)
Obama - 41
McCain - 42
EmonOkari said...
Over the last 8 years, Bush wrapped dynamite around the republican brand. Over the last 8 weeks McCain lit the match...
And Palin farted on it pretty much.
@Mysticlaker:
Don't be mad, get even! In all seriousness, we need these "tight" polls to motivate us strongly in the home stretch. I'm phonebanking for sure tonight!
The pollster who cooked up that AP poll is one darn lousy cook. Look no further for evidence: McCain will NEVER, by any stretch of the imagination, win the youth vote.
AP POLL showing the race tied has 45% born again Christians.
Actual 04 % was 23%
LOL
yiannis said...
AP POLL showing the race tied has 45% born again Christians.
Actual 04 % was 23%
LOL
ROFL
Thanks, ap/gfk for that wonderful poll. It only serves to further energize our GOTV. Please put out another bag of crap that helps motivate the good guys.
InkStain said...
So the question is, in the traditional flowerly graphic proclaiming him to be the 44th(?) president, will they go with tradition and use his middle name?
LOL
That would be too funny. Like a giant middle finger to everyone in the "he's a secret Muslim terrorist vote stealer" crowd. =)
FReeptard response to home turf poll showing Obama +9:
AP, Battleground, and TIPP have it within three!! Let’s ROLL!!
GOTV..TURNOUT!!
They're actually rejoicing at these bogus polls.
I think something fishy is going on here. Did anyone notice that the two polls showing the largest margin for BHO are Fox and Zogby? Meanwhile, Drudge is posting headlines about a landslide suddenly. Is this part of a new Repub meme to foster complacency among Dems?
I tried calling people through the tool on Barack's Web site, but I just couldn't muster the courage to speak on the phone to total strangers. I don't even like using the phone with people I know. Is it easier at a phone bank?
I wonder if AP paid the pollster...waste of money.
When is CNN/Time coming out with new state polls??? Anubody know???
Hey! Now, now, we can't forget to mention our new and up-and-coming stars:
Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand (http://www.gillibrand.house.gov/)
Paul Tonko (http://www.paultonkoforcongress2008.com/)
New York RULES!!!!
Oh, yeah, I almost forgot:
BROOKLYN. Believe the Hype!
"AP is probably wrong, but all the polls average out."
Uh huh. Obama was +10 in total respondents to that AP poll. They had to screen out alot of Obama support to make it Obama +1. They don't believe that Obama supporters are going to vote.
@bry...yes it is.
Also, there is more to do than phone-bank. Just get in touch with your local office and tell them you don't want to PB. You can help with office work, putting packets together. Good luck!
The best thing about the AP poll is that even simple math does not work out. Look at Question A4 on page 3. For the likely voters the sample size is an amzing 12( why would you report something based on 12 respondents?).
Amazingly 7% responded don't know and 9% McCain/Palin. Is it just me or do you also have problems with coming up with either 7% or 9% out of a total of 12?
I think something fishy is going on here. Did anyone notice that the two polls showing the largest margin for BHO are Fox and Zogby? Meanwhile, Drudge is posting headlines about a landslide suddenly. Is this part of a new Repub meme to foster complacency among Dems?
Almost certainly, but its not going to work.
real joe,
I thought you said CNN/Time state polls would be released by (or after) 2pm ET.
@Bry:
It is easier because 1) there are other shy people doing it there and 2) they often use Skype, which doesn't allow people to see who is calling them beforehand.
Thanks "Voice of the Midwest" for the recipe, and I have passed it to several of our group here to make for our Election night party here in Santiago, Chile, where we continue to gather ballots from abroad and send them off via diplomatic pouch from the US embassy back to the US. There are an estimated 6-7 million non-military expats in the world, and the voting percentage in 2004 was 10%. These voters lean Democratic, 70% to 30%, and Obama has field reps to try and get as many expat votes as possible. If you know ANYONE who lives outside the US and is potentially registered to vote, encourage them to go to www.votefromabroad.org as there is still time to vote, even if they do not yet have a ballot. They can still vote by requesting a ballot by mail and then, one or two days later, sending in the Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot. Any questions they have can be answered by the Obama field rep for their particular area of the world....
The AP poll is fairly old (considering < 2 weeks till election). 3 of 5 days were last week before Powell endorsement and include days where McCain faired well in other polls.
New ad from an Winning Message Action Fund(abortion rights group) accuses McCain of something that pro-lifers say they wouldn't do: Jail women who seek abortions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OETjrqZZLzg
Winning Message Action Fund
A 501(c)4 nonprofit affiliated with NARAL Pro-Choice New York
I understand RCP aren't even pretending to have any credibility anymore? WTF are they playing at including the AP/Dunkin' Donuts office poll???
Are RCP still not including those 5 national polls showing Obama with a double digit lead?
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178
John McCain is now leading Barack Obama 53-43 among those 18-24 in the new IBD poll.
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf
Ron Fournier's AP publishes a poll where 44% of those surveyed were born-again evangelicals. The actual 2004 percentage of born-again Christians was 23% according to the CNN exit polls.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
highly entertaining and drudge is loving it!
It's so frustrating living in one of those (potentially) two remaining GOP congressional districts. I'm in the 3rd CD, and we've been stuck with Peter King for way too long. The local Dems didn't feel the need to run a credible candidate this cycle (no offense, Graham Long, but there were better options...), so we're likely to be stuck with him for at least another term despite the fact that Obama will likely carry our district in this year's wave.
If you guys can win the state senate, you'll have control over redistricting and can gerrymander the rest of the Republicans out of existence before 2012.
Personally, I think gerrymandered districts are one of the worst abuses of our democracy and directly lead to the extreme polarization and partisanship we have. There should be some national law requiring all states to use some form of nonpartisan redistricting. But, as long as one side is doing it, there will be no hope of ever reforming the system until the shoe is on the other foot.
chi said...
real joe,
I thought you said CNN/Time state polls would be released by (or after) 2pm ET.
i'm also waiting for it to come out
@bryan...
the days don't matter. the whole methodology/demographics are just wrong. that evagencial and south bias is enough to through it out...
makes it look like a "close" race. good news for AP! what a coincidence!
Wow. Listen to the newest robo call from McCain camp with our favorite cross dresser, Rudy doing the honors.
LINK HERE
This should help McCain's favorable ratings.
Off topic but I can't resist. What is the big fuss over the RNC spending 150K on Sarah Palin's wardrobe? After all, once you buy (Caribou) Barbie, don't you have to purchase all of her accessories, too?
LOL. I still like Bible Spice for her nickname though.
@liberal_defender_of_freedom
I guess Willie Horton worked once... maybe they think it'll work again.
"Polls Probably Undercounting Obama's Strength"
Mark Blumenthal again on cell phone bias. Nate also gets a plug in the the process.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27196636/
Landslide coming.
another Mike, yes please keep using the Bible Spice name because I too think it is what best suits her!
@liberal_defender_of_freedom
I really want someone to ask him on election night what he thinks of community organizers NOW...
lol
GOTV
More FReeptard Pearls of Wisdom...
Battleground has it at 1 based on reality, not wishfull thinking.
It's actually Obama +2, but go ahead.
This election cycle Fox is unabashedly in the tank for Hussein.
Yep, that's "Mac"/"Sarah" supporters.
Blogger jnorthrop said...
@liberal_defender_of_freedom
I guess Willie Horton worked once... maybe they think it'll work again.
It's like 1988 all over again. Is Short Circuit 2 being rereleased in theaters?
Long time reader and site lover :) first time poster but hey, you're talking about MY CITY! We usually try not to acknowledge that we're connected to upstate red red redness...but hey if the blue sweep has ANY chance of turning Albany blue we might actually get our fair share of the$ for our city---which IS the biggest tourist attraction in the state and which has to PLEAD for funding ---for infrastructure, for social programs, for EDUCATION even!---from Albany Repugs who hate us!
And PS...someone PLEASE get in here and tell our City Council to tell our Mayor that he shouldnt be allowed to throw over term limits. There's a REASON for them!!! Byeeeeee Bloomberg! Your educational policies SUCK! And yes, education is a passion of mine :)
Cheers everyone...Its been a great pleasure reading your comments.
<3
PS As the best city in the world, yeah we KNOW why Palin hates us LOL and we return it in spades!--
PPS To that guy who was feeling complacent cuz we're true blue: go to Obama's website and sign up to join us in Scranton!
Kurt said:
I think something fishy is going on here. Did anyone notice that the two polls showing the largest margin for BHO are Fox and Zogby? Meanwhile, Drudge is posting headlines about a landslide suddenly. Is this part of a new Repub meme to foster complacency among Dems?
Almost certainly, but its not going to work.
Sheesh.
They show it closer than everyone else, and they're lying a-holes who are in the tank for the Republicans.
They show it larger than everyone else, and it must be a conspiracy to instill complacency.
It must be sad for you living in such a paranoid world.
When the ship is sinking, the repubs are just as likely to yell "FIRE, FIRE". Every stunt in the book is not going to be enough to satisfy the nut jobs. Stay tuned for more gems.
GOTV!
No use crying over spilled milk (or outlier polls). Polls in the field as the same time as AP had Obama up ranging from 5 to 14 points. No need to pay it any particular mind.
Muley! I gave you a shoutout in the last thread!
LOL means "Let Obama Lead" in NYC.
Going to have to repost this often:
This year's election will have a minor effect on redistricting (nice to have Dem Govs. elected this year in place as well as State Sens. with 4 year terms) BUT -
redistricting will take place during 2011, after the 2010 elections when most governors, nearly all State Reps and close to half of the State Sens will be chosen.
If the GOP has a strong off year election, they will control redistricting, irrespective of what happens this year.
Good God! Just as I START to calm down about the polls (nice moves on Zogby, R2K and Rasmussen), Gallup, and--even worse--IBD and AP have to piss all over my mood.
Ummmmm, I just don't buy IBD's sudden overwhelming McCain lead among 18-24 (and how does a tracker even move that far in one day).
And how the Hell does AP go from 10% Obama lead among all respondents, and arrive at 1% lead among likelies????? Jesus, they have a low opinion of the American voter's dedication! Is their likely voter model the following: "If respondant indicates support for Obama, then mark him/her down as 'not likely voter'"?????
Hilary Clinton going to NH next week
This term "in the tank" has taken off amongst the frustrated on both sides of the debate this year.
Personally, I find it to be an excuse for losers - on both sides.
The media reports what they see. That is their job. If the issues are not working your candidate's way, then expect bad news. Their policies or their party's policies led to them being on the downside of the story being reported.
After this election, I want people to stop using "in the tank", "game-changer" and "no brainer". They are all insulting to decent discourse.
Rudy calling Maine
LOL
real joe said, "Hilary Clinton going to NH next week"
Awesome! Go blunt McCain's sorry pleas.
Kid G,
I went back and looked. Thanks....I guess.
I actually have a good time. Just in a sick, twisted way.
My good time comes from flaming on the extreme, hateful liberals. I'm not in a sour mood, by any stretch, when I post all manner of vitriol. Rather, I find humor watching everyone duck and dodge the doo-doo that is being hurled.
Eric I would also like to see Chambliss get beaten (literally)---I have some buddies who would love to have a sit down with him.
She also could be going for Shaheen, who may need some help in NH - that Senate seat is not yet won.
@real joe - "Rudy calling Maine"
Believe it or not there are quite a few NYC transplants in Maine. I don't think Rudy is all that popular but it's not totally odd to have his robocalls in ME.
The robocaller /personal shopper for McCain connection. Too incredible. Who is running this campaign?
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200810u/palin-clothes
In the meantime, the Dow is down more than 400 points.
sfergus483,
You are a troll. Go away.
sfergus, Good point that we'll need to be strong in 2010 to control redistricting. But, it is extremely important to win these elections now. Incumbents have a huge advantage in getting re-elected. This year has huge Democratic momentum. It will be so much better to win seats this year and defend them in 2010, then try to beat incumbents in an off year election. And, of course as you note, lots of elections this year are for 4 years, so for them, it's now or never.
I'd love to know Nate's take on today's AP poll. (unless it's above and I missed it) It seems like a real outlier to me.
And . . . if as pointed out above, it had a whopping 44% evangelical Christian component, how representative could that be?
TV ad spending: 10/13-19
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/22/1281/1056/349/638345
Porridge Gun = Erect Penis
In case anybody was unclear on the moniker.
NY Today---could it be NJ Tomorrow.Can't wait for the pictures of the famed NJ "Cancer Alley". Sure Brett will make it look real pretty.
Hate to disagree Vivian -- Bloomberg transformed the school system from the mess Guiliani left it.
Also, at the local level, term limits are silly, voters should be the term limits. Do you deny you're better off under Bloomberg than you were under Guiliani?
Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after you.
Real Joe - who do you hear about the CNN polls from? Someone always gives you wrong info
Inmates To Cast Ballots In Vt., Maine
The McCain Losing-It-O-Tron
LOL @ Photo
http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/21/john_mccain_becoming_incoheren_9688.php
Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after you
Kurt,
That made absolutely no sense? What the hell? I'm not paranoid. You're the one displaying such tendencies.
You said you believe the reason Fox, Zogby, and Drudge are all "higher" than the field is because of some conspiracy theory to instill complacency.
You haven't heard me trot out any conspiracy theories, have you?
Don't be so douchey.
Rudy calling Maine is like Obama calling Wyoming.
Another gaffe/freudian slip from McCain is up on youtube:
Not safe for work
Context here:
Even less safe for work
Of course, I'm not sure it'll affect the polls if they can't talk about it on television.
Unless you were speaking in general terms and referring to yourself. Then your statement makes more sense.
LAT said...
The robocaller /personal shopper for McCain connection. Too incredible. Who is running this campaign?
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200810u/palin-clothes
Nice story, thanks! Very very creepy...
Kurt,
You are a paranoid wanker.
PorridgeGun,
You are as potent as a flaccid penis with a severed head.
Ugh, Giuliani and his lispy slobbering spittle speech.
That man is a piece of sh... work. I think saying NYers HATE Giuliani would be an understatement. But watch him go in those heels.
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