Tonight we continue our Road to 270 series with the Land of Enchantment, New Mexico.
BEAUTIFUL AND POBLANICALLY SPICY, New Mexico has given both parties fits in the recent past, with ridiculously close elections in back to back cycles. Under the radar due to the Florida fiasco, Al Gore won by a razor thin margin here in 2000, and George Bush's win logged in at a mere 5,992 votes in 2004. When we were there a month ago, it didn't seem close on the ground, with the Obama's effort probably producing something like a 100-to-1 ratio of work and a 7-to-1 (then 4-to-1) in field offices. The polls haven't been close either. Barack Obama should expect a comfortable win in this beautiful part of the world.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
It's a neighbor state with John McCain's Arizona, George Bush won the state in 2004, and the Hispanic population in New Mexico is not a recent immigrant population by and large. It's a relatively less educated state, and a more religious state overall. A decent number of military vets (again, many New Mexico Hispanic voters are vets) and a lower unemployment rate would be data points that shade in McCain's favor. Nevertheless, McCain has a tough
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama has organized New Mexico in an unprecedented way for a Democrat. There is a high quality team on the ground in the state. Outreach to Pueblo communities and Native American communities has been thoughtfully conducted from an early stage, and Obama's effort in the state has dwarfed Kerry's of four years ago. As for demographic data that favors Obama, Hispanics represent a huge number of voters, higher than any percentage in the nation, and there are also large numbers of young voters in the Land of Enchantment. Same-sex households rank fairly high, as do Catholics (high Hispanic population). Registered voters who identify as Democrats outpace those who self-identify as Republicans, and Obama's fundraising per capita in New Mexico is on the high end. In the end, Barack Obama will put the state and its five votes firmly in his column.
What To Watch For
New Mexico has three open seats in its three House districts -- Heather Wilson (NM-01), Steve Pearce (NM-02) and Tom Udall (NM-03) all chose to run for Pete Domenici's open Senate seat, and Pearce edged out Wilson in the primary. Udall's seat will remain Safe Dem, as Ben Ray Luján will take over for Udall after the latter beats Pearce. Wilson's open seat (Albuquerque) will see Martin Heinrich (D) likely beat Darren White (R). At least Republicans seem to think so on their Death List of likely lost House seats. The closest race is NM-02 in southern New Mexico, a true toss-up. There, Ed Tinsley (R) faces Harry Teague (D), and that's New Mexico's tightest race to watch. Hopefully this year New Mexico will be able to report its results during the same week as the election.
108 comments
New Mexico-- wow. I'm really enjoying the "Road" series here.
"row to hoe".
Notice the Senate projections: ~100% of 53 seats!
Need to crank these out you're still behind.
Also didn't NM get hit by a snow storm on election day one of the past two pres elections that significantly depressed turnout. Who does the rural dirt road pop favor? In most states its the R's but in most states that pop is white and not native american.
@ole forsberg, if only it could be 100% of sixty seats!
I still can't get over how close it was here in 2000, but this year, it looks like Obama will win New Mexico handily.
I been trying to compile a chronological list of labels that the McCain Campaign created for Obama. Did I miss any?
Black
Sexist
Not Trustworthy
Hussein
Celebrity
Inexperienced
New
Messiah
Liberal
Radical
Washington-Insider
Elitest
Muslim
Unknown
SCARY
Terrorist
Arab
THAT ONE
Communist
Anti-American
Socialist
Corrupt
Barrack-the-Redistributor
Like-Bush
Marxist
Incumbent
???DANGEROUS THREESOME???
Kudos for your populist chipotle, dude!
Your assessments are very accurate, particularly with regard to NM-02, which many national analysts are overlooking.
Obama's visits to New Mexico will be remembered well!
Let's PLEASE try and have a thread in which people can resist the urge to respond to the usual trolls. It just RUINS the other threads. Yes, they will come here. Yes, they will vomit out talking points, and every time you disprove one they will just maneuver to another. They thrive on attention. If you respond to them, THEY ARE WINNING. Ignore them, and let's keep the thread on topic. :)
2 of 2 grammar cops agree: "row to hoe."
I believe it's the motherless children that have the hard "road."
Did anyone post this Daily Kos story about vote flipping on touch screen machines in four states??
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/26/112912/81/554/642200
Clarissa: This year, it's A Tale of Three Districts, very distinct:
In the Northern part of the state, it's more Hispanic and Native American. Solid Dem.
In the Southern part it's more like Texas or Utah, politically. Which makes the Congressional race down there so amazing!
In the middle is Albuquerque, which is a swing district par excellence, now trending blue.
After the next census, they'll have to figure out how to divide these three natural populations four ways. That should be interesting!
Trolls work in timezones, you lose the East Coast ones who return to their comfy bridges and then the West Coast ones come online.
I'll post this again:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=6124663&page=1
Worth a read.
Hey word_verification:ellves kind of like trolls only cuter.
off topic question---one of the things that a lot of republican commentators or analysts say is that Obama's operation is all smoke and mirrors because in the end the new voters or the Obama voters, will not show up. But given how effective the GOTV for the early vote has been so far from the Obama camp can we not now see that this is a machine that actually works? Look at the numbers in FL, NC, VA, GA etc Are these days of early voting not excellent multiple dry runs for the one day they really have to get out the vote with all they have got?
Thanks.
I wish Obama would do a big rally in Las Cruces like he did in Albuquerque. I've already seen Michelle Obama and Joe Biden (both times I was real near the front), but I want to get a chance to see the future president! The only time Obama came down here it was a closed event only for vets or something.
ROW to how, not road. Geesh.
Excellent analysis as usual. Keep it up, fellas!
Fred's Shorts
You missed racist. He was called that when he pointed out that he did not look like the guys on our paper money. Steve Schmidt (the genius he is) promptly accused him of playing the "race card," i.e., being a racist.
Obama was also accused of being Bush-like, only this week!
Obama has not yet been accused of being a Martian or a Republican. However we still have 7 days.
So it looks like the Road to 270 are finally getting in to the states that really matter!
Which state will end the list? The closest state?
I can't believe I am only one week and six & a half hours away from voting for obama here in Michigan.
@stepper I figure soon he will be accused of being a closet Canadian...
mmm fajitas
@Fred's Shorts: I been trying to compile a chronological list of labels that the McCain Campaign created for Obama. Did I miss any?
Celebrity.
I won't ask why you want to do this. The motivation for one's woodworking projects lies in a place beyond reason.
Oops, you had celebrity after all.
WOOHOO! Sean says we are POBLANICALLY SPICY in NM. Sean, you rock.
Also, I got the update from SOS here in NM updated 10/17/08 and our breakout for NM voters was changed to 50%Dem to 32% Repub with the voter reg drive for BO.
The One
tax and spend liberal
This year unlike in 2000 New Mexico when Al Gore had to wait a few days the state will turn blue early and strongly for Barack Obama. And something tells me Dennis Hopper would be a real fan of Barack Obama so if he's in Alberquerque shooting the Starz series Crash I want to be at that party!
John McCain is desperate-asking me-a HOMELESS guy-for MONEY in an EMERGENCY LETTER sent to a HOMELESS AGENCY, my mailing address. The gist of it is big, bad Barack Obama has an unfair advantage because he refused to accept taxpayer money and now what will poor John McCain do without my MONEY if I don't respond to his EMERGENCY LETTER. And then things like HEALTH CARE might become a reality and Oh, my God! We can't let that happen! Which proves John McCain has a sense of humor to try and balance out that anger management problem.
CUTTING CONFESSIONS, a touching, funny and true love story between a midwestern man and an abused and artistic Beverly Hills girl set in Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Lake Havasu and the Las Vegas Strip. Another-but different-One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest. Read it here:
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
www.myspace.com/372390338
Is Samuel Catalfamo, a Los Angeles Homicide Detective with two drug dealing felony convicted sons also a shadow criminal? It's a matter for Internal Affairs to decide and see if this Sicilian family is in reality anything like the Corleones. By the way, the jerk son who is stalking me who also tried to kill me has sent me numerous threatening texts illegally in violation of a restraining order and by hijacking a girls cell phone he is also stalking-my IPhone has buzzed constantly as I've been typing this. To see what a demented criminal he is and why hopefully California will be safer if he's locked away soon and permanently see the story here:
www.myspace.com/370392338
Uh oh, Sean. Unless you're planning to post these on Election Day, you're in two-a-day territory now. Seven days left; 14 entries remaining.
@lat
In the local BO campaign we are currently canvassing new/sporadic voters in northern NM until they are sick of see us. We have a highly Dem electorate here, so we literally cut a square of google maps and knock on every door. In Rio Arriba county this Saturday there were 900 doors knocked. I don't know about Sunday. We are all but dragging those voters to the polls. I am in a northern Santa Fe precinct, and the response to early vote has been good. I have met up with plenty of new, young voters as well as first time voters that were older. A woman on Saturday said she had never voted (she was in her 50's) but was going to the early vote site that day to vote for BO. Yes, I canvassed on Saturday before the rally, with great effect. We also hit a local Indian reservation that day. The eight northern pueblos have been behind Obama all the way. I had to laugh, as the local Indian casino had the Dem early vote rally up on its marquee sign Saturday. I live about 5 miles from Ben Ray Lujan, who will easily win CD-1. I went to elementary school with him. Nice guy. His father has been the speaker of the NM state house for (oh, probably my entire life). He is working with Tom Udall in the north to really get behind a unified ticket, which exploits the Lujan name-recognition factor for Obama, too.
Finally, your closing comment was LOL-funny.
"The 365" in 2000 (the statewide margin) was never closely examined--our attention was elsewhere, y'think?
This year's primary count was truly a disaster, but it was administered by the parties.
A high percentage of the people here are suspicious of the counting, and the ruckus about the straight party vote being annulled is feeding it.
@clarissa
Yes, there was a huge snowstorm in 2004. I always early vote, but some folks got stuck on their work commute getting to the polls. My local polling site knew this, though, and stayed open late to accommodate them. It is still "small town" in northern NM.
OMG Drudge is losing it. He's cracking up! Srsly!!
From Drudge:
ABCCBSNBCNYTLATWSJCNN
MSNBCAPREUTERSAFPPOLITCO
FTTIMEWASHPOSTNEWSWEEK:
CAN THEY ALL BE WRONG?
Michael said... "row to hoe".
Eh, it's a doggie-dog world out there on the campaign trail, eh, Sean?
Actually, it was 366 in 2000 :)
Row-to hoe - would that be a woman of easy virtue who works on a boat in the middle of a lake?
Hi Heather Nordquist
I used to live in Northern Minnesota and was a Disc Jockey in Duluth at one time. I'm from Brooklyn Park, within walking distance of where Diablo Cody wrote Juno in a Target store on West Broadway. (I'm also writing a movie I detailed in an earlier post.) Borders is closing for the night, so it will be sometime tomorrow before I get back to the computer and the web.
To the guy with the list of names Republicans are calling Barack Obama, there's one not on the list they are calling him in secret along with the rest of the country:
President-Elect
FOX News/Rasmussen
Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 45
Florida
Obama 51, McCain 47
North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 49
Virginia
Obama 51, McCain 47
Colorado
Obama 50, McCain 46
Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 47
Is Syria the Suprise?
If Ted Stevens truly believe that his federal trial was carried out in an "unconscionable manner," he has defied his obligation as a Senator to uphold the Constitution of the United States' fifth and fourteenth amendment, and thus, he is unfit to hold office.
The Bradley Effect Scenario
Ho's ho' roads, but that's ho' ho's, not hoe hoes. Those hoe rows.
Yiannis
You are a day late and a tread short, lol
@rodney
I know I have the Swedish name, but I am in northern NM, not northern MN. I don't really understand what you are saying about the calls.
Aha. Sorry rodney. Am I in campaign mode, and I thought you were talking about phone calls. Yes, President-elect will soon be on the list. In eight days to be exact.
As someone born in Albuquerque, I am excited that my birth state is going to go Obama.
Zogby marches on....
Obama 49.0%, McCain 44.7%
I can say with a fair degree of certainty (particularly after the Obama visit this weekend) that it will NOT take us a week to get our results in. I expect an Obama blowout in NM. I would guess that it will all be called within a few hours here.
Of course, I'm still hoping Obama hits at least 193 really early in the eastern half of the county on the 4th. Then we can just be icing on the cake this year.
Obama 49.0%, McCain 44.7%
UTICA, New York – The race for President of the United States continued to tighten, as both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain lost ground in a contest that is now a four–point game, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.
Obama lost 0.9 points and now stands at 49.0% in the tracking poll, while McCain lost 0.4 points and now stands at 44.7% support in a head–to–head match–up. Another 6.3% said they were undecided, up from 4.9% the day before.
McCain wins 87% of the Republican support, and Obama 84% of the Democratic support, and each candidate wins 11% of the opposing party’s support. Obama continues to lead among independent voters – his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%.
McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin. Among white voters, McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin. Among Hispanics, Obama leads, 66% to 28%, and among African Americans, Obama wins 88% to McCain’s 9%.
Obama has had a a policy of answering every smear and putting it back in their face.
Now maybe he is doing this with the "wealth redistribution" charge on commercials in swing states but I've seen precious little in response.
What would be wrong with assembling his heaviest "capitalistic" buddies to stand behind him on stage (Buffet, Volker, Rubin, and a host of business execs) and one by one they come up to the microphone and refute the nonsense. And then Barack could finish by saying "now John McCain, don't bring it up again or else normal people will think your less stable than what they saw during the financial meltdown. And that would not be good John..."
That drip, drip, drip of socialism is costing Obama votes... believe it.
First time poster having some thoughts.
In regards to the 'return on investment index' is it taken into account that states on or close to the east coast could dramatically shift the national outlook if they are called early by the national media.
If VA was taken by obama or mccain wins PA and its called early (or even to close to call in PA) would it dramatically shift what is happening in the west.
This may or may not be a strategy worth considering.
OK...
So as a Dem, these stats all seem to good to be true
I need to ask, seriously, are rigged elections a moot point?
It is my one and only fear, why does no one ever consider this?
Someone PLEASE ANSWER THIS TIME..
So, zogby's sample is a bunch of white men. LOL
*SHOCK*
Zogby
Obama 49.0%, McCain 44.7%
Tightening!
My husband and I each cast our votes this morning. We voted for Obama, Udall, and Teague!
As for "names", today I heard a McCain surrogate on television gasping and sputtering because Obama was using...get ready...Conservative words and talking points. The person was quite upset about it. Best laugh I had all day!!
sterse? Interesting word verification.
Released: October 28, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama Under 50%, as McCain Holds Steady
Obama 49.0%, McCain 44.7%
G'Night All!
Chin Shih Tang:
Your analysis of New Mexico is pretty good, except for one small quibble. The southern part of the state actually has the most Hispanics (by contrast, the Northern part has the fewest Hispanics, but the largest Native population). My home city of Albuquerque has been getting bluer for years now, and with Obama pushing the vote in the Universities, I'd actually think that Obama will get single digits in Southern New Mexico.
By the way, Sean, excellent write-up, you've pretty much nailed the demographics of New Mexico brilliantly.
I live near Denver and know several folks who live in New Mexico for part of the year, some wealthy, some artists (not starving, but skinny).
Might there be states where the number of part time residents who don't have the vote is high enough to be a statistical factor, and is NM one of them?
At least with certain towns you get the feeling they are much more progressive because of their part time residents than they really are when you only count the redneck 'aborigines'.
Zogby now has O +4.3. According to Z, Sunday's number came in at +3If conservatively we say that Z rounded down for dramatic effect, let's say it was +3.5. That would mean that Obama averaged +4.7 over the last two days. If tomorrow's number's for Z come in at +4.7 or higher, my tightening concern will lessen greatly.
Too late barry, the race is definitely tightening.
Barry,
Obama always polls lower over weekends, then builds his lead back up. Think of it as "noise" in the polls and relax.
Smitty said...
Obama always polls lower over weekends, then builds his lead back up. Think of it as "noise" in the polls and relax.
Is that true? Why is that?
David in FL
"Barry said...
Zogby now has O +4.3. According to Z, Sunday's number came in at +3If conservatively we say that Z rounded down for dramatic effect, let's say it was +3.5. That would mean that Obama averaged +4.7 over the last two days. If tomorrow's number's for Z come in at +4.7 or higher, my tightening concern will lessen greatly."
I hope you're right. If this steady pace of 0.5% narrowing each day continues, the race will be an exact tie in 8.6 days more days publishing. A little late for McCain? :-)
Actually, though, if it keeps up, then we get to Nate's danger zone of a 2% gap in just 4.6 more days of Zogby publishing. So, Saturday or Sunday...... Eeek
I meant to say Saturday's Z number was +3. This number will drop off in tomorrow's poll, so tomorrow's number will be more indicative of where Zogby is at.
@elliot: I don't know about that. My mom's family is from Farmington and my dad's is from outside Santa Fe and I live in Las Cruces. In my experience there are a lot of white people and Mexicans down here, while in those other places there are less Mexicans but more Spanish (what my family identifies us as).
Maybe it's just where I hang out, but I see more Hispanics in the north than the south. Of course, the towns that are right on the border with El Paso, TX are very Mexican so you may be right. I don't have the numbers, I guess.
Actually, though, if it keeps up, then we get to Nate's danger zone of a 2% gap in just 4.6 more days of Zogby publishing. So, Saturday or Sunday...... Eeek
No we don't. Nate was talking about 2% in state polls, not national ones. Remember: 51 state and district elections are held on the same day.
Barry,
I do not know why. However, Obama gave a fantastic speech today. I suspect that is how he will finish this final week. I don't really see the polls "tightening". I see the polls doing the usual movement. Rasmussen discusses it on his site.
"Barry said...
I meant to say Saturday's Z number was +3. This number will drop off in tomorrow's poll, so tomorrow's number will be more indicative of where Zogby is at."
I don't understand, though. If the "bad" day was Saturday, and you surmise that Obama has done better on the two days since, why was there contraction each of the past two days? Doesn't that mean that Sunday and Monday were progressively NARROWER than the Saturday spread?
Aren't the simulations run based on the projected value (the yellow line)? If that's the case, then Obama could loose 1.3 points by Election day and be in the same place we see him now, right?
"McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin. Among white voters, McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin. Among Hispanics, Obama leads, 66% to 28%, and among African Americans, Obama wins 88% to McCain’s 9%."
^
Zogby's numbers are off. Look at the 9% Black support McCain is receiving! Yeah right! McCain will be luck to get 3% out of this thing!
Ladies, don't get your knickers in a knot.
Nate has said the Z poll has a basic MISTAKE in it : Namely the big Z is using the 2004 Dem/Rep split - which has shifted quite a bit towards the Democrats.
Keep the faith and remember, vote early and vote often!
I don't understand, though. If the "bad" day was Saturday, and you surmise that Obama has done better on the two days since, why was there contraction each of the past two days? Doesn't that mean that Sunday and Monday were progressively NARROWER than the Saturday spread?
No.
It means they were narrower than the days that dropped off. That's all movement is in a tracking poll. It's really just a comparison of the newest day's data to the data of the day leaving the sample moderated by the data in the middle. If your new data is higher than the data leaving, the tracker rises. If it's lower, it falls.
And in almost all states, McCain's projection is highter than the snapshot, and Obama's is lower.
Tell me if I'm wrong, but that seems to me that a point to two movement in the polls isn't going to help McCain in the model because it has already been accounted for.
Mason--Then I'm confused. Obama's Zogby spread peaked on the 10/22 report, and has steadily declined since, so wouldn't it have to be the case that each successive day of the polling samples was "worse" than the prior days since then--at least to some degree?
troy--9% of the blacks aren't going to vote for McCain, if Bush couldn't get but around 10%, without a black running opposite of him! So, if you are giving these polls any type of validity at least you can take solace in the fact that McCain's black supported is grossly overstated probably about 4 or 5 percentage points.
*support*
I'm happy at Sean's confidence that CD-1 will go to Martin Heinrich; I haven't been feeling so confident, myself. His opponent has put out a LOT of negative ads recently, even overtly claiming that Heinrich has broken the law. Hard to know how that kind of campaign is playing this year.
Love that list Fred's shorts.
My favorite part is how "Anti-American" "Socialist" and "Corrupt" lead right into "Like Bush."
:o
Also, Zogby is like a troll for pollsters. He makes sh!t up, craves attention, and generally deserves to be ignored.
One more free thought. Any poll that shows Obama leading by less than 8 points has one or more of the following wrong with it:
Not enough 18-34 voters
Party ID weighted equally
Unreasonable AA support for McCain
Assumption that 2004 enthusiasm = 2008 enthusiasm
If any single one of these is way off, McCain manages to make it close. But still doesn't win. Tee hee.
Chin Shih Tang & jd35:
The western part of district 2 has high hispanic population. For example in Dona Ana County (Las Cruces & 2nd most populous county in the state) 65% are Hispanic. Almost 57% in the county speak a language other than English at home (see factfinder.census.gov for population data). The eastern part of district 2 (Carlsbad, Hobbs, Roswell etc.) is known as Little Texas because its focus on oil and natural gas and its character. When I canvass down here in Las Cruces I see neighborhoods split down the middle in their campaign signs. Obama/Biden signs are right next to McCain/Palin. We have registered a record number of voters and are chasing them to early voting like a border collie. It will be close but I think Obama may win in Dona Ana county.
Loralee,
My husband works at Kirtland. Those ads are NOT going over well at all, based on what he hears.
Comeon Sean,how can you write about NM and not mention Bill Richardson? He is also the main reason why the hispanics are supporting BO.
smitty, that's good news!
nickpp, I'm sure you didn't mean anything by it, but Latinos in NM make their own decisions on how to vote just like any other group. Lots of them supported Hillary in the primary, even though Richardson chose BHO.
Mason--Then I'm confused. Obama's Zogby spread peaked on the 10/22 report, and has steadily declined since, so wouldn't it have to be the case that each successive day of the polling samples was "worse" than the prior days since then--at least to some degree?
Again: No.
Just stop and think about it a bit. Let's say you're running a five-day tracker. Assume you have a pool of data, segregated by date, representing your five days. Each day, you remove the oldest by-group of data, insert a new by-group of data, and then perform some averaging function on it. Today is day N.
You take out day N-5 and replace it with day N. Those are your only changes in data. The difference between N and N-5 will be the change in your data. Nothing has changed about N-4 ... N-1. They were in the sample yesterday, and they're still in the sample today. They have the same average yesterday as they have today, therefore there can be no change from those days. What they do provide is moderation and smoothing, because existing data is 4/5ths of the sample.
Democrats are such a bunch of whiny girls. National numbers are not relevant. FL, OH, NC, IN, MO don't matter. This is a three state election. VA, CO and PA. McCain needs either PA or both CO and VA or its over. Obama currently:
+10 PA
+7 VA
+6 CO
Why do you think Obama is spending so much time in VA? He believes PA is wrapped up or he'd be there every day. VA gets the love because its the clincher. CO is gravy. Obama spends time in PA tomorrow and then he's back in VA by tomorrow evening. What state is most important? VA
If there is no closing in PA and VA, McCain can close the national gap all he wants, its irrelevant.
When national reporters talk to the Obama strategists what state do they say is the most important? VA. If Obama wins VA by a large margin -- 6+ points, we're in for a landslide.
Anybody seen the Charles Barkley interview on cnn.com:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/27/brown.barkley/index.html
He goes on and on about, you guessed it, the Bradley Effect! And apparently he wants to run for governor in Alabama. As Spike Lee once said, "Charles Barkley has said a lot of things that were half retarded."
(Blue on blue fire!)
Matt J.H. said-
Democrats are such a bunch of whiny girls.
Said the handle who whined for two weeks straight during the post-convention period. ;-)
"Democrats are such a bunch of whiny girls."
Lovely.
As to the rest or your over-simplified post:
"National numbers are not relevant."
Sure they are, for a variety of reasons. The real power of a mandate, for one.
"FL, OH, NC, IN, MO don't matter."
Sure they do. They can either add to the mandate or can substitute for Virginia in your scenario, should something weird happen there.
Your post was an unattractive mix of arrogant and simplistic.
And even if we accept your scenario... if Obama wins Pennsylvania, any of seven or so states could put him over the top. Virginia is merely the easiest.
@Loralee,
I just wanted to give Bill Richardson his props for backing BO all the way.
@Loralee,
Agree about Charles Barkly. What an idiot. Add him along the likes of John King and Anderson Cooper on CNN. Thank god for David Gergen.
Yes, Virginia could very well be a tipping point state. However, if we learned anything from 2000 and 2004, you can't put your eggs in one basket. Obama has done a great job of truly spreading the field, therefore giving himself many paths to victory.
Race, Ethnicity, and The Electoral College
Let's see if we can't explain how the Zogby poll works in plain english. It takes the results of 3 seperate days of polling and averages them for the "tracking" poll. That is if looking purely at Obama's number, monday was 51.5, tuesday was 50.0 and wednesday's was 49.0, then the average for the 3 days would be roughly 50.2. Now, on thursday we have a new poll result of 49.3, an improvement over wednesday, but the average would drop off monday's high so our actual result would be an average of 49.4 which shows a drop in the average due to what dropped off more than today's new results.
I been trying to compile a chronological list of labels that the McCain Campaign created for Obama. Did I miss any?
Hoover-like. McCain accused Obama of being like Herbert Hoover a couple of times. Not Jay Edgar Hoover-like: that would have to be Sarah Barracuda herself
word verification: pecto. I like it!
From a leading New Mexico blog this morning:
"A Tsunami warning has been issued and the captain has given the order. It's every man for himself. With just one week before Election Day, experts across the board say a repudiation of historic proportions of the Bush presidency and the New Mexico Republican Party seems unavoidable. Public and private polling here reveals the tsunami wave that is already splashing onto the early voting. It will now be a major upset if any Republican is elected to the United States Congress from this state in 2008. That would mean one party control of the state's five member D.C. delegation for the first time since the state added its third US House seat in 1983."
http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/
"Poblanically spicy?" Poblanos are really not very spicy, you know. . . . .
That aside, this former Arizonan living in Maine sure misses him some Hatch green chile. . . . .
North of Santa Fe is very Hispanic, with the exception of Los Alamos. There is a big difference here between Hispanos and those of Mexican descent. Did someone call the locals aborigines?
New State Mottos courtesy 538.com
MS: A Polarized State of Extremes
ME: Fiercely Independent
HI: Exotic and Foreign
OK: When The Wind Comes Sweeping Down The Plains
NC: A Contrast of Cores
WY: Sparsely Populated and Spacious
MA: Highly Educated and Liberal
AL: Staunchly Socially Conservative
AR: Home of Wal-Mart
MN: Once a Democratic Given
IA: A Field of Dreams
NE: Where Football is Religion
RI: Deep Ocean Blue
UT: Sunset Sandstone Red
AK: Bastion of Hockey Mommery
CA: Coastally Urban and Maverickily Liberal
TX: Not a State to Mess With
TN: Heart of Country Music
SD: Badlands and Prairie
FL: Land of Beaches, Oranges, Old People and Theme Parks
OR: Cascading From Desert to Sea
LA: Cajun Bayou Tabasco Red
MD: Chesapeake Blue
MT: The Last, Best Place
CT: Home of Joe Lieberman
KS: What's the Matter With Kansas?
ID: Home of Napoleon Dynamite
NY: Home of The Daily Show's Word Headquarters
AZ: John McCain's Home
VT: Syrupy and Newhartish
KY: From Paducah to the Moonshine Hills
ND: Woodchippy and Snow-Blown
SC: Land of Colbert
NM: Beautiful and Poblanically Spicy
The R's have only themselves to blame for the disaster they are about to see next Tuesday. They didn't seriously contest the gov or the other Senate seat in 2006. Then party heads didn't step and stop Pearce from running. Wilson was Domenici's protege and in an excellent position to help the state with DoD and DoE committee assignments. Udall, on the other hand, dissed both Labs last year when they were facing serious layoffs, now even more likely with the federal budget situation. Wilson was the only House member that has fought for both Labs and Air Force bases. But instead the twit from the South, who should really move back to Texas, won the primary and is now getting his head handed to him in the election. With only 1 senator with any decent committee assignments, New Mexico is looking at hard times in the next few years.
I want to find a plot of land on the high road to Taos, about 15 miles outside of Santa Fe for retirement.
Yeah, some of those towns on the high road are a bit shady. Yeah, my wife gets motion sickness on the High Road. Yeah, I get nose bleeds at high altitude.
But the view is worth the adjustments.
I went to the October Balloon Festival in ABQ with the wife during the 2004 election. I highly recommend the balloon fest - it is beautiful. We then went to Santa Fe and were in the crosshairs of both campaigns. Even saw John Cusack speak at the La Fonda Hotel for John Kerry. There was a Republican rally for their state ticket on the Santa Fe town square. It is a great place to be at election time.
The green chile burger at the Santa Fe Brewing Company will rock your world, too!
andrew, if I could, I'd give you tips for the compilation.
I'm a new addict to 538- what a great site! When I drove cross-country a few years back, New Mexico was my surprise favorite place along the way.
Two thoughts on the statistics:
-It would be interesting to see the Jewish population statistics in the religious affiliation section. It seems that the generally-left-leaning Jewish population makes a difference in states like MA, NY, IL, FL, and PA. I know the correlation of religious and political affiliation wouldn't be as strong as among Evangelicals, but might be comparable to Catholics (am i mistaken on that point?). I would think that this group would be at least as politically influential as the Mormon religion in most states (especially on the East Coast).
-I'm interested to see which state has the highest ratio of same-sex households. My guesses- CA, NY, MA, VT, ME, OR, CT- have already been covered, and unless I overlooked something (totally possible), none of them won the coveted title, and New Mexico was my next guess. Of the remaining states, any would be a surprise- Maybe Washington? Illinois? I was shocked to see how highly Utah ranked in this category. Who knew? Also, It's too bad that the tag "same-sex household" excludes single LGBT's- so this stat might be significantly understating this population's influence in each state. I guess statistically speaking, the extra 1% might not sway any state that isn't already blue, but still...
After the census, they'll just carve out the heart of Albuquerque and/or part of Rio Rancho to form the new district. That way Albuquerque metro has "part" of all four Congressional Districts.
Seriously, I'm in CD1. I drive TOWARD the center of town, and I have to go through CD3 to get there?!? That is the problem when one small area holds half the state's population.
On a "depressing" note, one of the Union canvassers came by trying to drum up support for Heinrich. She was less than energized about it. Here is a half-page description for him. "I know there have been a lot of negative ads about him." Just nothing.
Hard pressed to find any McCain supporters here in Santa Fe. Sarah's a laughing stock.
"Poblanically"--a wonderful nonce-word, with false overtones of "popular."
That poblano peppers aren't very hot is besides the point. They are rich in flavor, which makes them appropriate for the headline.
(Afterall, would you trust your esophagus or your polity to the spicy and probably communist habanero?)
the district 2 race is going utterly unnoticed by most politicos. strangely they seem to be fascinated by Heinreich. wtf?
i blame our late results on the mandatory recounts if the election is close...
and our wholeheartedly inept electoral preparations and overall system.
we kinda suck as a state but I still wouldn't live anywhere else.
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