Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Gem State, Idaho.
HOME OF NAPOLEON DYNAMITE and the spectacular Salmon River, Idaho is one of John McCain's safest states in 2008, with a double digit win expected. Republican through and through, Idaho boasts a roughly three-to-one edge in the state legislature. Both Senators and both House members are Republican, as is every statewide officeholder. The physically stunning state is Republican officeholding Heaven.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
Only two states went more strongly for George Bush than Idaho, and self-identifying Republicans outnumber their Democratic counterparts by more than 2-to-1. More than 50% of voters are male, and the 2d most Mormon voters by percentage live in Idaho. Unemployment is low, there are fewer black voters than anywhere else in the nation, and Idaho is one of the more conservative states on the Likert scale. In sociological categories, Idaho strongly goes McCain's way, with very high gun ownership, reasonably high "American" ancestry, low proportion of same-sex households, and strong military veteran constituency. John McCain will win Idaho.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama has to be pretty pleased with that Starbucks:Walmart ratio, if for no other reason than every other sociological category runs in John McCain's favor. Idaho boasts a high percentage of voters under 30, and not as many elderly voters. Obama also famously paid attention to Idaho in the primary season, eschewing campaign time in California (one and a half days) in order to visit Boise. So he can expect to overperform the Democratic presidential norm in Idaho, though it won't be enough to win.
What To Watch For
The race in Idaho's 1st House district between Walt Minnick (D) and incumbent Bill Sali (R) is the race to watch. David Wasserman at the Cook Political Report rates the race lean Republican, but it is the closest political contest this year in Idaho, with Larry LaRocco's challenge to Lt. Gov. Jim Risch for Larry Craig's open Senate seat looking like a distant hope two weeks before the election. Idaho is not yet following the path of neighboring Montana in terms of purpling; it's still a red state. Dems are making organizing inroads in hopes of long-term improvement, but we have yet to see much drama develop in Idaho.
10.22.2008
Road to 270: Idaho
@ 2:10 AM
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The day Idaho goes blue...
Also, Idaho doesn't seem to be the state in the area most likely to have 4 EVs. Is Boise that big? Really?
I am now confident of an Obama win. The 2004 jitters have subsided.
Idaho will not go blue until the pivotal race between Sen. Jesus Christ (D-TX) and Gov. Satan Prince of Darkness (R-MS).
Hey, Sean,
Since I didn't get to read the last post until the comments were up to the 200s -- sorry I didn't get a chance to meet you, but thanks for the wonderful writeup of our operation out of Falls Church!
Barack Obama has to be pretty pleased with that Starbucks:Walmart ratio...
LOL
Napoleon Dynamite is an awful movie.
This might be old news, but I found it interesting. Time to redefine the Bradley effect?
says the WSJ:
Recently pollster Lance Tarrance and political consultant Sal Russo, who worked for Bradley's opponent George Deukmejian, have written (Mr. Tarrance in RealClearPolitics.com, and Mr. Russo on this page) that their polls got the election right and that public pollsters failed to take into account a successful Republican absentee voter drive. Blair Levin, a Democrat who worked for Bradley, has argued in the same vein in the New York Times.
The Treasure Valley (where Boise is located) has a population pushing 500,000 people. However, there are also population centers in Pocatello, Idaho Falls, and up north in Coeur d'Alene. I don't know the numbers right now, but I seem to recall the state having something close to 1.5 million residents.
While the profile did not mention that Palin attended two colleges in the state and she graduated from the University of Idaho, it matters little because stories that have come out conclude that hardly anyone remembers her. Nonetheless there was considerable excitement when McCain picked her. I think the fascination has worn off.
The Minnick-Sali race is turning into a donnybrook. A Survey USA poll done for Roll Call came out on Tuesday with Minnick leading the Republican incumbent for 51-45. Cook Political Report ought to look at moving this to the toss up category.
The other district in eastern Idaho is the one more dominated by LDS Church adherents. And the Congressman from that district Mike Simpson, is a jack Mormon. He likes his single malt scotch. Also a pretty darned good golfer.
In an election year full of surprises, Idaho isn't one of them.
I wonder if mountain republicans, southern republicans and what is left of business republicans are going to be fighting over a very small piece of meat on Nov. 5th?
You guys are going to have to hurry if you want to examine every state before November 4.
So, after having heard of Murtha calling West PA racist, John the Candidate is going to PA. It is a "just-in-time" winning strategy.
John the Candidate, Joe the Plumber, Sarah the Mooseskinner and Dora the Explorer will explain an adoring crowd who the racist is: Barack the N.....
Sounds like a nice place to drive through and enjoy the natural beauty and stop by for Starbucks. I am curious to know if anyone remember's Sarah, didn't she attend college there? Wondering how her expensive wardrobe plays there in that they would need to work about 7 years with the average per capita income to earn what the party spent on her in a matter of weeks. I see that the RNC is now saying that they were planning on donating the stuff to charity. I wonder if that is win or lose. She had $5,000 for hair as well though these figures are only through September. Keeping up with the Maverick's is expensive. What is Edwards thinking. Sean if you do get around to the book idea that we were discussing on the other thread it would be excellent to take the time to combine all of your talents and do this well and in coffee table style as was suggested. You have it all with the Road series, the photo's the absolute spot on projections which will come through for us and a loyal fan base. Many of us will remember this not as much as an election but as a movement and we will want to retain a record for our family in the generations to come. I can imagine the final chapters. November 4th parties and of course January as we see our President sworn in. I would prefer to think about the book plan versus all this PA. talk. I have gone back to the interactive map and they can have Oh, Pa, and Fl, and we will take the new map. Good job as always today by both of you! The site that never sleeps providing endless opportunities for all of us who cannot resist coming back for one more fix.
I wonder what the scenario would have to be for Idaho to go blue?
Minnesota Meta-Polling: Obama's coattails and the potential for a Franken upset
How the Base was Won
Obama 340, McCain 198
Idaho is the most conservative state in the Great Northwest, and that's okay. They don't have a lot of manufacturing jobs, and Mormons comprise a large percentage of the voting group.
it's really impossible. I would say that maybe if Sarah started campaigning there, explaining how VPs are "in charge" of Senate, discussing major supreme court decisions......
Obama also famously paid attention to Idaho
lol, and that's Idaho in a nutshell. Paying attention to Idaho AT ALL is noteworthy. :P
who knows - the salt lake tribune did endorse obama
Josh, I think Mark in the third post of the thread accurately described the situation Idaho going blue would require.
Even in the race Mark described, I think quite a few Republicans would vote for Satan Prince of Darkness if he had an "R" behind his name.
obama up ten in zogby
are we seeing an obama bounce
John the Candidate is tanking according to Zogby.
fred,
it's like Usain Bolt's last 20mt in the olympic dash: pure inertia from better training and superior skills.
I like the powell endorsement bounce theory
all the newspaper endorsements also matter
Palin--a moose caught in the headlights--the ambassador from 'Real America'-- is now only a mere pawn in the Repub game of "smear thy opponent."
Could be the Dead-Palin-Bounce. Nice clothes though. I like that red leather, shiny stuff. Did the Repubs think they could package her like a barbie doll for all the voters to worship?
Murtha is being polite. Wen I hiked te Appalachian Trail in '99, I stayed in many Pennsylvania towns. I encountered more blatant racism than I could ever expect in Alabama where I grew up. It's a real factor. It just hides better in the south.
McCain is stupid if he thinks than he will win if he wins PA.
The reality is than Obama can win without PA + OH and FL.
If Obama wins Virginia and Colorado ( where at this moment he is very strong), he is only short by 5.
If he wins Nevada where the early voting is huge for Democrats + 100.000 edge amoung registered voters and where McCain has a very poor GOTV, Obama has 270 without PA.
But also the very little problem for him (mccain) is than never he will win PA.
how many commercials could mccain have run for the 150000 dollars they spent clothing sister sarah
"While the profile did not mention that Palin attended two colleges in the state and she graduated from the University of Idaho, it matters little because stories that have come out conclude that hardly anyone remembers her. Nonetheless there was considerable excitement when McCain picked her. I think the fascination has worn off."
This is true. University of Idaho wasn't too excited. She got a mention in our school paper as having gone there. The next week no one cared and Obama's GOTV volunteers were out in force on our campus. She's essentially a non-issue here.
Having just moved from Idaho to California, I have mixed feelings on the state. From my conversations with the folks back home, the outrageous stupidity of the Palin nomination will make ID more blue than it has been in a long time.
Sort of leaning Mccain overall then?
Someone told me Boise is liberal.
I guess there is a Fake Idaho, even.
But why Idaho? Why not Texas? Texas has been underpolled and ignored and anything beyond +10 is usually ARG.
republicans are going to be fighting over a very small piece of meat on Nov. 5th?
Or pie. Hmmm...I wonder what flavor it'll be.
who would have thought the paper of record in utah would endorse obama
very blue year that got bluer do to the economy and palin
I am close to betting on a reverse bradley effect
EmonOkari:
"Or pie. Hmmm...I wonder what flavor it'll be."
Do you even need to ask?
Humble.
Speaking as an active Mormon who has lived in Idaho for 19 of the 22 months I've been alive, I'm voting for Obama.
Honestly, I don't understand why Mormon's still support McCain so heavily. We (as mormons) may not agree with the democrats on gay marriage and legalization of some drugs, but honestly, why in the world are we caring about those kind of things, when we have the economy to worry about, thousands of our sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, mothers, fathers, and friends dying in a war we don't NEED to be in, and children living and dying without healthcare?
Talk about disturbingly grotesque priorities.
My 'mormon' values:
Why are we worrying about gays marrying when single parent families, and divorce is astronomically more common, and more destructive to the children?
Why are people obsessing about whether or not abortion should be legal when we have 4-6 times the number of unwanted teen pregnancies and abortions in this country as other first world countries. Why aren't we trying to preach safe sex habits ALONG with abstinence?
And lastly, and most disturbing to me, why in the world are we against spending a little more to help everyone in this country with their health care, when our religion is based on a man who lived 2000 years ago who taught only love, charity, and healing others?
Christianity and mormons included have gotten so obsessed with the specifics, and exceptions that can be found in the religion, that they (and I myself at times) forget what the over arching and for more important principles of the religion is. Peace, love, understanding, charity to all men, forgiveness, long suffering.
I realize that governments have to go to War at times, but shouldn't Mormons and other Christians be looking to make a government that is concerned with the most high callings of the religion, and not worrying about the small additions that have been added since the time of Jesus Christ?
Years, not months obviously :)
The Catholic Left became very vocal right after 04, and was a huge part of the 06 surge and going to be a huge part of the Obama landslide.
"Speaking as an active Mormon who has lived in Idaho for 19 of the 22 months I've been alive".
If you are only 22 months old, you should be allowed to vote, never mind actually constructing such quality English sentences.
I'm from Idaho and voting Obama, as are a surprising number of my acquaintances. Idaho as a whole is more tolerant than some conservative locations and has a history of electing national level Dem. politicians (Frank Church, Ceclil Andrus). Idahoans are a practical bunch and many may see the foolishness of McCain/Palin and let their vote do the talking.
There is definately something to be said for good clothing. What else do you look for in your average VP canidate? She has been so busy dressing up and reading the teleprompter that it hasn't left time to study up for the actual job description that a 3rd grader poised for her. Just another gotcha' question gone bad. Great shoes though and such a welcome change from Hillary's one color pant suits which surely has put the pant suit industry to rest forever. The yellow ones were particularly painful. Just seems odd that the RNC would need to pick up the bill because she does make a salary as Gov. but annually it isn't much more then a few shopping trips. Despicable AP calling them out on this. Everyone enjoys a well dressed Sarah so why not let it be Alaska has all that oil, pipe line, drill baby drill, future. Shame to have them just donate that stuff to 'charity'. Going back to Alaska is going to be difficult for the Gov if things don't work out well as I bet ya that per diem for nights spent at home might not have been properly accounted for and taxed so there will be people looking things over right nicely. Two more weeks barbie. Suggestions today were that some women are just jealous of an attractive, successful woman who has it all. That is too funny to sting! I will confess though I wasted so much time in 5th grade studying what the Vice President did instead of learning to play the flute so I could be one.
Ruth Ozeki wrote a delightful novel that unfolds in Idaho, All Over Creation, where a grumpy old potato farmer makes a political turn over genetically engineered crops. I read it as a reminder that stuff that hits close to home can have that effect, and that in a way it's more likely to happen in people whose ideological perspective doesn't square with reality.
cher
great post
I was born in Coeur d'Alene...are there still a bunch of neo-nazis in Hayden Lake?
holy devil!! ..i can't understand my behaviour.I accidentally came accross this site and now I'm hooked!!..and the weirdest thing about this whole thing is that, I was born and grew up in Mauritius where life was such that I would wait only and until the coconuts fall to the ground to go and collect them....yep! that's how lazy and relaxed my life was (never touch a computer at all there). Now, I'm in Australia studying music where I first got my hands on a computer and this whole thing lead me to Nate Silver on Jon Stewart's Daily Show and now I'm like a heroin junkie...and I still don't have a clue about America, it's state, voting system....etc..nothing at all!! ( ..but i'm slowly learning now here!)..."What in the hell is happening to me ?": my poor Creole girlfriend is asking everyday!!...Great job guys..see what you've done!
In 2004, Kerry got all of one county in Idaho.
In 2008, I bet Obama will pick up a second one.
Glad to read you are voting for Obama Spidoman. Sounds like there is quite an active group of from Idaho or in Idaho people represented. The dem's are not supporting gay marriage, but are supporting gay partnerships. Which is fair. I am all for less war more health care. Nothing wrong with trying to simply get along because far too much is made of our differences and what is important is how very much we all have in common. I'm off to sleep now tomorrow is a new day for me to begin worrying about who will way what that starts the media spinning around. I don't think election season brings out the best in us but this board is very civil most of the time except a few who hang out here to disrupt the productive conversation. It is great fun to ponder polling stat's and imagine that we truly might win this and bring about a better country where we all live in peace and harmony. Yes it is time to go to sleep!
Alright, time for some random musings from the Ohio gallery.
First up, schools. I think one thing that is heavily underconcidered in polling is the college demographics. If Obama really is registering, energizing and turning out entire colleges, that could have a massive impact on close states. For that reason alone I think that Florida and Ohio go blue. The higher budget, greater ground game and energized AA vote will also count for a great deal.
Second, all of the concern over PA. First, if it really was a leaked internal Obama poll that showed they were only up 2, then guess what? Obama already knows about it! McCain's campaigning is essentially himself and Palin, too often having to be together. Obama has himself, Biden, the Clintons as well as other energized spokespeople. Heck, he might even get Powell out to a few military areas, you never know. The Republican state folks are mostly trying to back away from the stench of decay on the McCain campaign. No matter what efforts McCain attempts in PA, he'll be massively out spent and out stumped. PA goes blue.
Third, overall strategy. Obama has already shown that he is a great organizer, using talents learned from his early days in Chicago. On top of that he has a great analytical mind so he not only goes into a situation prepared in advance, but he also pays attention to what is going on and adapts to it well. His ground game has improved during the primaries because at all levels they paid attention to what did and didn't work and they corrected the latter. Given the way he studied the primaries and laid out a path to victory there, I have no doubt he also studied the general elections of past years. That means he was already well aware of Ohio and Florida (could he have somehow not been aware?) and so yes I think it is very likely he devised routes/paths to victory that could withstand losing one or both of those states just in case. Do I wish he'd taken a stronger stance at times and punched on some of the obvious weaknesses of his opponents? Yes. But I also can see full well why he hasn't. He's the boxer way up on points in the late rounds. The only way he loses is by knock out so the only smart strategy is to not let your opponent get that good punch in. Defend, play the game your way and you cannot lose. That's what he's done since his large lead going into the debates. He's passed up most of the cheap shots because at best he gains a wee bit more ground but at worst he gets set up for some wild haymaker that catches him unprepared because he left himself open. I'm sure he had the shots prepared if they looked like they were actually needed but as they weren't, why bother?
Finally, the supposed stash of RNC money that they are supposed to unleash the last week and steal the election. Even if it exists, it won't get used. The RNC can read the writing on the wall as well as anyone. If that cash goes anywhere I bet you it will be spent on senatorial races where it could actually do some good. Even if they throw every penny they have alongside McCain's last knickle Obama still outspends them on his own and doing that just leaves the senatorial seats vulnerable. Obama wins anyways, but then they risk the 60+ dem senate and I don't see them risking that given the state of McCain's campaign. Just look at Crist in Florida who said he was saving his state funds for 09 rather than spend it on McCain and that's in one of the states McCain MUST win. My guess is that it wasn't McCain that pulled out of Colorado and the other states, but rather that the RNC pulled out their own funding instead and effectively cut his budget in half.
For my ending note of this rambling writing I have but this to say. The only way Obama wins is if we vote him in and the only way he loses is if we don't vote and thereby let him win. I registered late and so haven't yet voted as I wanted to confirm that everything was well and good with my registration. I myself am one of the many cell phone only people that remains unpolled and I haven't voted in the last decade at best so I'm in the "very unlikely" category too. I'll have my Obama vote in by end of next week. Ohio WILL be blue by god. There is no way I'm living in a state that gives in to Palin's "real america" bs.
Forget a white christmas, I'm dreaming of a Blue Ohio!
Ishenzhou -
Welcome! I am addicted to this site, too. What a wonderful community Nate has created. I can meet interesting folks from around the world, like you! Bless him, Sean, and Brett for such an amazing accomplishment. I can tell you many of us are exhausted, emotionally, from this long election season. I'm sure that our national productivity is way down. I know I'm way behind in personal and business projects. But this election is just too important. So I'm staying involved, donating like crazy, helping however I can. I can tell you that a whole marginalized group of us are feeling empowered for the first time in many, many years and our hopes are high. Our country was stolen from us in so many ways. We have to let the world know again that we are not Bush! We will not have that madness again, if it is within our power to defeat it. I am a business owner with my husband, we grew our $3 million business from the ground up, and I want health care coverage for all my employees and I am looking forward to hopefullly being able to make this happen. And my husband and I make mid- 6-figures and have no problem with paying more tax if it lifts up everyone else. God, we need this! Our election process must sound crazy I know, we have this ridiculous Electoral College still, but as you might surmise from reading the posts, the real deal is about the people on the ground, working in offices all across the country, backed by advertising, lots of surrogates talking on tv and radio, and the sheer physical effort of our candidates to criss -cross the country to talk to us. I especially love this place when I see such hope and hard work and the looks on the faces of folks who feel they make a difference. I hope you will ask whatever questions you have on your mind. I'm sure many will be happy to answer, including me, when we are able. Enjoy your time on this site, it's an amazing place to be, and quite a phenomenon.
Nate: I just saw the MSNBC appearance and...
GET SOME SLEEP!!!
You've earned it, and you want to *look* awake when you're calling election night.
Boise has gone with the Republicans in the past two elections by overwhelming margins. The only county in Idaho to go with the Democrats consistently is Blaine county, which is exceptionally rural. Not only that, but Blaine county has been against Bush by large margins both times.
I wonder what's going on there to make it like that? It could be political clustering, since there have to be at least some liberal people in the state and they probably get pretty lonely in the rest of Idaho.
Or maybe that's where My Own Private Idaho is? ;)
PA contains a lot of racists, but it looks like care more about jobs than skin colour.
If McCain make a determined grab for them how long will it be before we see buttons saying "I'm voting for the Ni**er"
Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah will be forever red.
Here is some info on emails I got on Tuesday for the great supportive friends across The Pond who are looking for election details...
I got a an email from MoveOn.Org today which included a personal video by Eli Pariser, explaining that the underreported story was that there were several strategic local campaigns which were looking within reach, and we needed to donate to those candidates. We have a real shot at getting to the magic 60 vote total which will mean we can get legislation through without Republicans blocking it. It was a funny video, with Eli explaining what was needed, then pointing down at the spots on the page to donate, then waiting while the viewer filled in the form. I got quite a laugh out of it. Eli just sat there, killing time, walked off to get a cup of coffee, came back on screen to see if I'd done my job. I had. Very funny.
Second email of note was from the Texas Obama group. I'm in Texas. They were asking for volunteers to travel to Ohio! Wow! They are paying all expenses. Double wow! I wonder how much of this all expenses paid long distance travel is being organized around the country for battle ground states. Maybe it's just for Ohio. Which leads me to email number 3...
Female African American long time friend in Cuyahoga County is about to strike a deal with the Obama group to open up an office in her place of business. She told me today that a good friend of hers, a former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District, is coming to monitor. She said her friend will be greatly needed, as the GOP is already trying to disqualify 200,000 registrations. She said they figured if they could get 300,000 votes out of Cuyahoga County, they could take Ohio. So the GOP is coming after them. I guess our busloads from TX are heading there to keep new registrations coming in and get folks to the polls on the 4th, to stay ahead of this kind of b-s.
Ishenzhou:
Welcome! The best thing about being on this side of Greenwich Mean Time is that there are relatively few commenters when Nate/Sean do a post in the wee hours of the morning, which means fewer flamewars and trolls.
Welcome to American politics as well. I'm an American expat living in South Africa and constantly have to explain our labyrinthine political system to people outside of the US.
Hey, how come we have an even number of electoral votes? If it were odd, we wouldn't have to entertain the idea of a electoral tie. And, as long as we're on the subject, WHY THE FUCK DO WE RELY ON ELECTORAL VOTES?!!!! If this is a true democracy then the electoral college is anathema to that concept. We've been a republic for over 200 years. Can't we be truly democratic and representative sometime soon? Maybe in my lifetime?
It's late. Obviously I'm shouting at the stars. A detriment to being a creative type who stays up late and lives on the west coast. Good night everyone.
We rely on electoral votes because it's in the Constitution. And we can't change the Constitution because it's un-American to do so!!!
All of my life I heard that "they" the Republican's would never vote to abolish the EC. I have no idea how it plays for one party more than another but I bet that someone on this site can tell us. I got caught up reading and didn't go to sleep. Now that a general sense of resignation about how this thing might go is setting in there are some interesting articles.
Davy said...
Hey, how come we have an even number of electoral votes? If it were odd, we wouldn't have to entertain the idea of a electoral tie. And, as long as we're on the subject, WHY THE FUCK DO WE RELY ON ELECTORAL VOTES?!!!! If this is a true democracy then the electoral college is anathema to that concept. We've been a republic for over 200 years. Can't we be truly democratic and representative sometime soon? Maybe in my lifetime?
Its probably a holdover from the french system that was in place at the time. In France they elected people that voted for the people to serve in the parliament. Since you achieved independence with French support, it makes sense you would adopt French style institutions and practices.
Davy said...
"Hey, how come we have an even number of electoral votes? If it were odd, we wouldn't have to entertain the idea of a electoral tie. And, as long as we're on the subject, WHY THE FUCK DO WE RELY ON ELECTORAL VOTES?!!!! If this is a true democracy then the electoral college is anathema to that concept. We've been a republic for over 200 years. Can't we be truly democratic and representative sometime soon? Maybe in my lifetime?"
Actually, we are a representative democracy. We elect people to represent our interests at all levels of goverment. This is also reflected in the EC where we essentially vote on who we want to have vote for us and in theory that person follows our wishes and casts votes on our behalf based on majority rule. So, should a majority of Ohioans prefer Obama, we'll send 20 electors to the electoral college and they'll offer votes to Obama in our name. This process has become a more or less formality.
But the same thing happens with everything we do. The bailout was not put to popular vote to the people, but instead our elected representatives voted in our stead. Does it work perfectly? Not a chance but it is still a form of true democracy and is the one we have short of rewriting the entire consitution.
Forget a white christmas, I'm dreaming of a Blue Ohio!
cher said...
"All of my life I heard that "they" the Republican's would never vote to abolish the EC. I have no idea how it plays for one party more than another but I bet that someone on this site can tell us. I got caught up reading and didn't go to sleep. Now that a general sense of resignation about how this thing might go is setting in there are some interesting articles."
My guess? Because of situations where you can win the EC yet lose the popular vote in theory. In all but two states, so long as you have the higher number of votes (not even needing a true majority) then you get all of the EC votes of that state. This means that the more populus states on the east and west coast cannot on their own dominate the presidential election. How would they do this? Well, imagine if a Democratic candidate took the entire NE that Obama currently holds by say 80-95% margins and performs in a generally equally well manner in California. If the democrat then kept the race close, say in the neighborhood of 60-40 in the midwest and south, the democrate would then most likely hold the popular vote most every time even if the republican candidate could hold more EC votes. This is a fear button of the republican side, particularly when they are trying to appeal to more rural areas and values rather than the high population centers.
Napoleon Quinnamite?
We rely on electoral votes because it's in the Constitution. And we can't change the Constitution because it's un-American to do so!!!
Uh, you might want to actually READ the Constitution, particularly Article 5:
The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.
I enjoyed this article, but I've got to say that's one piss-poor statistical graphic. Data bearing no relation to one another are stacked up all together and compared side-to-side, measured up against one another as if that were meaningful.
The apparent suggestion of the graphic is that if you add up (with some difficulty -- the blue and purple look very similar) the lengths of all the bars for each side, the side with the highest total "wins" (or, more charitably, has achieved a better overall showing by these metrics). This is misleading; there's no notion of the relative weighting of each category. How important is race, compared to religion, in predicting voter behavior? How do those stack up against fundraising totals? Years of education? It's ludicrous -- why design a graphic that encourages such nonsensical interpretation of the data?
Supposing we dodge this pitfall and attempt to interpret the data in detail (since nothing can be determined at a glance), we encounter new difficulties. The meanings of the numbers vary so widely that a huge wall of text is required to annotate them all. Look, couldn't we at least have these explanations indexed by footnote numbers, so we can cross-reference them to the items they apply to?
I read through the wall of text a few times to convince myself that it didn't contain an explanation of the "n/50" number before realizing that it represents this state's ordinal rank among the 50 states, and not a fraction. Well, I might have guessed it quicker, but it's really way too easy of a mistake to make when you could just label the column or simply put "1st," "2nd," etc.
This site touts "Electoral Projections Done Right," and most of the work I see here is admirable, including many of the statistical graphics. That's important -- presenting data effectively is just as crucial as collecting them accurately. It's just too bad to see the "Road to 270" series fall short of this standard.
The reason Republicans want to keep the electoral college is very simple. Every state gets one vote for each member they send to the house or senate (and D.C. gets 3, as if they had two senators and 1 house member based on their population).
This means that every state gets two votes (senators), then more based on their population. So states with lower population get proportionately more representation.
Most Democratic votes come from urban areas, thus states with higher populations and less representation per person, and the Democratic party suffers in presidential elections because of this.
A quick example:
California has 55 electoral votes,
33,871,648 population (2000 census)
This means 1 electoral vote per 615,848 people
Wyoming has 3 electoral votes,
493,782 population (2000 census)
This means 1 electoral vote per 164,594 people
Each of the (heavily Republican) people of Wyoming have 3.74 times as much electoral power as a Californian.
If you're from California, yes, this should piss you off.
Luke said...
"I enjoyed this article, but I've got to say that's one piss-poor statistical graphic. Data bearing no relation to one another are stacked up all together and compared side-to-side, measured up against one another as if that were meaningful.
The apparent suggestion of the graphic is that if you add up (with some difficulty -- the blue and purple look very similar) the lengths of all the bars for each side, the side with the highest total "wins" (or, more charitably, has achieved a better overall showing by these metrics). This is misleading; there's no notion of the relative weighting of each category. How important is race, compared to religion, in predicting voter behavior? How do those stack up against fundraising totals? Years of education? It's ludicrous -- why design a graphic that encourages such nonsensical interpretation of the data?"
Interesting. Your interpretation of these sections is entirely different than my own. Rather than trying to measure exactly how X state might go based upon those bars, I simply took it to be an explanation of the various factors at play within the state itself. Breakdowns of the demographics by age, race, income, etc and then explanations following to describe how each is likely to benefit or hinder the candidates. The polls are what tells you how each state will play out, this is just background on the states themselves.
Forget a white christmas, I'm dreaming of a Blue Ohio!
ok smart guy
you come up with realtive eighting metric for each category that is robust across all elections
good luck
I thought this was a pretty good article on the pros and cons of the electoral college.
I don't like the electoral college but I can see how it can prevent tyranny of the majority and keep the rural areas from wanting to break away, as usually happens - just look at Russia for a modern example. Also, it hasn't decided many elections against the popular vote.
I think the bigger problem is the winner-take-all model of distributing all of a state's electoral votes to a single candidate. This pretty much causes the two-party system we have today, and suppresses third parties.
Mark said...
Idaho will not go blue until the pivotal race between Sen. Jesus Christ (D-TX) and Gov. Satan Prince of Darkness (R-MS).
... I wouldn't be so sure, Mark. If Sen. J. Christ insisted on maintaining that "turn the other cheek" policy, the GOP would rip him to shreds. Hello President Satan, P.O.D.
I was born and raised in Idaho, left for 10 years, then came back. Idaho is not hopeless in terms of long term Democratic potential, just a much harder uphill battle than the rest of the Rocky Mountain west. Number one reason: Mormon demographic. 2nd highest outside of Utah and HUGE influence. Which makes most Idaho Republicans "values" Republicans, and I would argue much harder to shift than idealogical or fiscal conservatives.
But... the population of Boise, and Pocatello (University Town... more liberal than Boise), and the Sun Valley area is growing. Blaine County = Sun Valley. That's the reason for the liberal outlier on your map.
The ground game, organization, and enthusiasm for Democrats is improving:
Reality check: In 2004, only 5,000 Democrats participated in the caucuses. 5,000 -- that's for the WHOLE STATE.
This year: For the first time ever, Democrats held caucuses in every single county. Turnout was 28,000.
Democrats in Idaho gave Obama his highest level of support for the entire primary season: 79 percent of caucus attendees.
And the newest shock poll, just released 10/19: House Race for District 01 is TIED. :-)
We'll get there... come back and talk to us in 2012.
That's the point -- there's no sensible weighting, any more than there's a weighting that's sensible for comparing meters to ounces. Or apples to oranges, if you prefer.
Caregive
Thanks for that. Anyone with stories or camapign details that might help us UK liberal democrats, please post them to comments here
http://peterwelcheastern.blogspot.com/2008/10/obamas-volunteer-army.html
A lot of UK liberal Democrats are very impressed with the story on Christian Lund getting everyone at a rally to phone 4 numbers. so simple, so elegant, so effective. Off to lunch now!
Luke, I don't see where there is any implication that if you add up the bars you arrive at any sort of conclusion. They are just meant to paint a picture of the various factors at play in the given state.
This seems like an awfully nitpicky thing to attack and I doubt that Sean has the time or inclination to change it now, so you and the rest of us are going to have to live with it. I think we'll survive.
PS in a dream election result (N Dakota and Montana (I have some relatives in both) going for Obama) Idaho would be "the" flyover state.
I hope that all potential early voters in Pinellas County, Florida are aware that there are only 3 voting locations, all of them in the south of the county.
Anyone living in the north of the county will have to make a long trip to get to those locations.
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/01/22/Northpinellas/Early_voting_location.shtml
My moms best friend lives in Idaho. They were on the phone talking about how big Obama supporters My Mom and Me are. My moms friend and daughter on undecided between....Barr, Nader, and Obama. They went to see Nader speek say my mom thinks they are going to vote for Nader. It is pretty cool that mccain isnt in there first three choices though. lol.
R2K O51 M41 = O+1 and M-1 from yesterday
Barack Obama: America's First gay President?
Do a little digging and interesting information pops up about Obama.
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/ouwant2/2008/oct/20/who-is-barrys-mystery-man/
Here’s what one blogger wrote:
“We know Barry was able to destroy the last guy who claimed to have a homosexual affair with him. Larry Sinclair, weather (sic!) he is right or wrong, has brought a lawsuit against Barry and claims to have had sex and drugs with Barry.
“We also know according to his book “Dreams of my Father” his longtime mentor is a confessed pervert who has confessed to having sex with little boys. For seven years, the presidential candidate had a "father-son" relationship with Frank Marshall Davis, who has confessed to having sex with children, sadomasochism, bondage and practicing a wide array of deviant sexual activities.
“In his 1995 memoir Dreams from My Father, Obama identifies his childhood mentor only as "Frank," but Obama insiders later confirmed he was referring to Davis, a journalist and poet who was a pal of Obama's maternal grandfather, Stanley Dunham. Frank Marshall Davis admitted in his private papers that he had secretly authored a hard-core pornographic autobiography called Sex Rebel: Black, published in 1968.
“So, who is Michael Signator, why have we never heard of him before, will we hear more about him later, or does anyone really even care?”
Now I know these bloggers are just guys who hang out in their pajamas all day, but every now and then they hit on the truth. Remember who unmasked the forgeries that threatened to derail Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign?
The incuriosity of the media would be so surprising, if we all didn’t know you were in Dutch with Obama and his campaign.
This is at least as interesting as Sarah Palin's wardrobe.
BHO pulled a +12 in that R2K/Kos poll yesterday.
PeteKent, you are human filth. Fuck off.
lol petekent, keep digging (yourself into a hole as Obama surges ahead)!
I second @ matt
BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP This is your public service announcement for the morning. There have been trolls sighted in the blogs. If you avoid eye contact, do not engage them and most especially do not feed them, they will wander back to their normal habitats. Thank you for listening.
No fithier I suppose than Maddow, Sullivan et al who spread the rumors about Trig Palin really not being Sarah's but her daughter's baby.
Funny how that gets blwon up all over the media without foundation, but the well-founded reports of Obama's homosexuality are suppressed and not even investigated.
Who is Michael Signator?
Who got a an ex-Chicago cop a mutli-million dollar apartment in Obama's neighborhood and why does Obam spend so much time there?
Drugs?
Sex?
Both???
I'm predicting another down day for the financial markets today..
You'll see After an Obama victory on November the 5th, the stock market will regain all it has lost since September.
If Obama is innocent of all of these chareges, he should have gotten the record cleared before the election.
Now we will likely have to deal with his sordid past for four years.
This will all be solved by impeachment: A foreign born person cannot serve as President. Obama was born in Kenya.
I hope you all like Biden!
yep, Japan down 7%, we'll open lower...
Repugs can't impeach with so few in the House and Senate LOLOLOL!
"PeteKent said...
Trig Palin really not being Sarah's but her daughter's baby."
OMG!!! SAY IT AIN'T SO PETE, SAY IT AIN'T SO!!!!
Pete Kent, as Senator Moynihan once said,
'You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.'
Kindly stay within the bounds of fact and reason, and don't just make crap up.
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking:
Obama 52
McCain 42
nieddu said...
"I'm predicting another down day for the financial markets today..
You'll see After an Obama victory on November the 5th, the stock market will regain all it has lost since September."
I rather doubt we'll see a full recoup of the markets ever. Most of that volume was speculation built on speculation. If we do manage to regain those vaunted peaks, it'll either be because we are doing amazingly well as a nation or else we are setting ourselves up for yet another fall because we failed to learn from history yet again. But then I'm just guessing and am not a financial expert.
I am not making anything up.
Michael Signator is Obama's "mystery man". Google it.
It is the media's job to investigate this stuff, but they won't.
PeteKent said...
"I am not making anything up.
Michael Signator is Obama's "mystery man". Google it.
It is the media's job to investigate this stuff, but they won't."
Actually, if drugs are involved then it is the police's job to investigate, not the media's, nor yours or mine.
That said, once again you come forth with nothing but suggestion and inuendo and claim them to be the basis of fact. Such a sad, sad boy.
The depressed condition of the market reflects an expectation of an Obama victory. The traders sense a deep and prolonged recession. The markets are very efficient. They can read the polls!
From Zobgy: Obama leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”
The day after the election (assuming an Obama victory) The world markets will rise, Wall Street will gain at least 1,000 points. The feel good factor generated by such an historic American election, will positively overwhelm the world.
I'm an investor......
PA Morning Call Tracker:
Obama - 52
McCain = 41
SHERWICK said...
'From Zobgy: Obama leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”'
Wow, that's some mighty detailed polling from our best friend Zogby.
cora said...
fred,
it's like Usain Bolt's last 20mt in the olympic dash: pure inertia from better training and superior skills.
October 22, 2008 2:24 AM
**************
@Cora,
it's really early in the morning(and good morning to you all),b-b-b-b-but,unless Real Joe finds out some outstanding line (yes He can),may I dare to say this is the quote of the day ??????
:)
Petekent:
Last I checked, the only people that are getting F****D up the a** are the republican party, and its the Neocons that have B******d you while picking your pocket.
And Obama was born in Hawaii. the graphics expert that was to prove those photos were shopped was dismissed as he was shown to be a blithering idiot. Check the blog of the case if you don't believe me.
Spidoman--- When things get as divisive as they have gotten with the election, when the base of our personalities come out and grab all the headlines, I read comments like yours and it brings a smile to my face. I had a grandma who was the epitome of a christian in my eyes, true to her faith and beliefs, but had charity and love in her heart for all. She practiced what she preached, she delivered meals on wheels to the elderly when she was in her 70's. Your comments remind me about casting stones and all the other things that christianity/religion should be about and why I feel that spirituality is the most important part of one's soul. There are days I let the hate filled blogs about Obama ruin my day. Today I will go forward with you on my mind knowing that the feeling of hope and humanity are a real possibility for the future. Thank you.
Pete, the 'media' did look into Obama's old bodyman and security guy Michael Signator. That's why we know about him. The reason he's not in the picture now is that once you accept secret service protection you are no longer allowed personal bodyguards. You either do it their way, or not at all. Is it such a crime that one guy doesn't want media attention? To suggest that Obama has male friends makes him gay is beyond juvenile.
Yep, the DOW will be up a least 1000 the day Obama is confirmed as having won the election (and I'm an investor too).
"I hope that all potential early voters in Pinellas County, Florida are aware that there are only 3 voting locations, all of them in the south of the county.
Anyone living in the north of the county will have to make a long trip to get to those locations.
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/01/22/Northpinellas/Early_voting_location.shtml
"
The article needs a bit of clarification; the 3 locations are in Clearwater ( the county seat ), Largo and St Petersburg.
http://www.votepinellas.com/index.php?id=152
Clearwater is the northernmost, and is the center of the county; Largo and St Pete are further south.
The Pinellas Supervisor of Elections page defends having only 3 by saying that "remote early voting sites are not mandated by law. The law mandates early voting be available in all permanent, full service Election offices."
So she is in technical compliance with the minimum.
Yet in Hillsborough county ( across the Bay ), nearly every library is used as an early voting location.
A "body man" is not a security guard. Obama has a new one: former athlete, Reggie Love. Apparently, Obama like'em big and beefy!
In fact Politico only put the story out there an no one in the MSM has picked this up.
How did an ex-Cop come to afford a multi-million dollar apartment in Obama's neighborhood and why does Obama spend so much time there?
Instead, let's talk about Palin's wardrobe!
Petekent - I hear Obama might have had 2 black kids in wedlock!
"Yep, the DOW will be up a least 1000 the day Obama is confirmed as having won the election (and I'm an investor too)."
Do you think traders cannot read the polls? They know Obama is going to win -- or they know something we don't know.
"Petekent - I hear Obama might have had 2 black kids in wedlock!"
Hmmmm . . . I'd like to see the marriage license and the paternity test!
Pete- whats happening to the DOW is the property and credit bubble is deflating. That had jack all to do with Obama
And in case you dont remember the Stock market collapsed when McCain was slightly ahead in the polls...
GOP is looneytuning:
from today's CNN interview:
Palin said Joe the Plumber is representative of "Jane the engineer and Molly the dental hygienist and Chuck the teacher."
When wil Cartoonnetwork air DORA THE EXPLORER's exclusive interview
to JOHN THE CANDIDATE ?
@Christopher
"To suggest that Obama has male friends makes him gay is beyond juvenile."
Let's cut petekent some slack here. The concept of "friend" is alien to him.
This is stupid. Not only is there not a shred of evidence for Obama being gay, it wouldn't matter if he was.
As Powell pointed out, a patriotic muslim American has as much right to be potus as anybody else. Same for a partiotic gay American.
PK are you a homophobe?
Haha, why can't PeteKent understand that WE WOULDN'T CARE if Obama was bi?
Further evidence of media bias: they go on and on about Osama bin Laden, but they barely ever mention Darth Vader, who has masterminded far worse atrocities.
"Palin said Joe the Plumber is representative of "Jane the engineer and Molly the dental hygienist and Chuck the teacher."
No worries, Virginia the Voters will send her back to AK in a couple weeks...
I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but...
Pete Kent-- You should really just shut up. All you are doing is re-inforcing the perception that many smart people have that the right wing consists of nothing more than bigots, paranoid schizophrenics (google that) and morons.
PETEKENT:
Joe the Plumber is gay.
Does this make a substantial argument for intelligent discussion ?
Hillsborough County registrations by party:
D 42.98 %
R 33.27 %
NPA 19.17%
http://www.votehillsborough.org/VRStats.aspx?Summaries=1
Early voting results on a daily basis are available on the home page:
http://www.votehillsborough.org/
Not all of us in Idaho are voting for McCain, but he will unfortunately win here. Far too much ignorance and fear at play in this statel; it's so bad these people think it's their duty to vote GOP. Most people here still think Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9/11!
Great graphic from the DKos/R2K poll...
60+ Demographic
McCain has lost seniors in a big way.
Idaho is probably the greatest red state of them all. Gorgeous. And forget southern hospitality, people are nicer out there. IMO
Is the endorsement from the Boise newspaper considered normal for that paper?
http://www.idahostatesman.com/editorial/
Or is Boise a lonely blue island in a Red sea?
Palin will cause McCain to lose in a giant landslide winning only the reddest states.
The woman doesn`t even have any idea what a vice presidents job is,she lacks middle school civics knowledge,scary and now with the 150k wardrobe spending spree how an anyone take her seriously.
Pete Kent is a complete moron, any idiot can say he did whatever with whomever, show us the proof idiot.
I would like to see McCAIN REGAIN HIS DIGNITY, STOP THE SLIMY CAMPAIGN AND LOSE LIKE A MAN.
Sarah Palin is a high maintenance bitch, god damn. $150k for clothes for 8 weeks of campaigning, yikes!
@caregiver:
As a 'supportive friend across the Pond' - thank you so much for the insight! Been on here a few weeks now and most people who know me know that I LOVE any info about this kind of thing.
Much appreciated.
xxx
"STOP THE SLIMY CAMPAIGN AND LOSE LIKE A MAN."
Agree 100%. I used to really like John McCain, in fact at one point back in the middle primaries when I was supporting Hillary and she didn't look like she was winning, I told my friends I'd probably vote McCain over Obama. That feels like a lifetime ago. McCain has totally torpedoed his credibility with me. He's a scumbag.
shadowfax
"Sarah Palin is a high maintenance bitch, god damn. $150k for clothes for 8 weeks of campaigning, yikes!"
Oh, I don't know. Seams cheap for a VP AND leader of congress.
South Dakota has gone from red to pink on electoral-vote.com!!
I know there's no chance it's going to be anything but red but still. Lovely to see.
"Oh, I don't know. Seams cheap for a VP AND leader of congress."
The image of the Senate's reaction to Palin trying to lead them makes me almost want McCain to win.
LOL inkstain
shadowguidex said...
Sarah Palin is a high maintenance bitch
seriously there....anyone running a campaign in front of millions of viewers would have to do spend money on clothing, hairstyiling and son on. Huffingtonpost brought this thing up and started comparing these 150k to annual incomes, average clothing of the average american etc. But these mythical "avergage Americans" (a phrase im starting to detest when being used as propaganda) don't run presidential campaigns. It's just populist BS.
That -7 in South Dakota bodes well for ND and MT.
While I think Palin is dispicable and less qualified then most high-schoolers I don' think she's the cause of McCain's bad numbers. She's more the catalyst; there where almost no way a R would win this campaign even if extremely good, and all they got was McCain.
I'm sure there would have been another catalyst if she hadn't been picked. Maybe not as good a one but there would still have been one.
On top of that Obama is running what will likely be shown as one of the best campaigns in modern history. Both from how he promotes his brand and get his supporters involved with doable tasks. Few opponents could stand up against that.
" It's just populist BS."
Agreed. Plenty of legit idiocies to point out there.
21 states left and only 13 days until the election. Better hurry up!!!!!
I agree with Cora - this is a non issue, all the candidates have to spend big bucks on their image.
If she had already established credibility as a candidate, this would not have hurt so much.
OTOH, everyone had a field day with Edward's haircuts
But remeber that Kerry got attacked for a $500 haircut so I think it's legit to discuss at $150.000 wardrobe.
How much has McCain spent on him and Cindy?
Palin is starting to look like GOP's scapegoat. Why else should her campaign filter this 150k clothing bs ?
Ops, it was Edwards...
cora-
She isn't a movie star walking the red carpet. I'm not asking for her to wear average American clothing, I'm just saying that she doesn't need every label to be European fashion designer produced. Averaging over $5000 per outfit is just excessive and doesn't at all convey that average American feel. I'll give her $1000, but not $5000.
what do you guys think? Any RAS movement today?
what do you guys think? Any RAS movement today?
"But remeber that Kerry got attacked for a $500 haircut so I think it's legit to discuss at $150.000 wardrobe."
That sort of thinking is everything that is wrong with politics.
Starbucks:Walmart Ratio 2.29 16/50
Proof if proof were needed that this particular datum may not have all that much bite. Though I do recall a pretty liberal-feeling latte haven (independent) in Boise.
Robert said...
But remeber that Kerry got attacked for a $500 haircut so I think it's legit to discuss at $150.000 wardrobe.
2 wrongs dont make a right
"what do you guys think? Any RAS movement today?"
I'd say Obama is almost certain to gain a point today.
I think so too...But I've said that for a week with no change!
Latest NBC News/WSJ Poll:
52 - 42 for OBama
I'd like to see Ras, Hotline, and GWU move back to the mean today. I'll post Ras in a couple of minutes.
Food for thought....
Would the McCain campaign rather have a discussion about:
1) expensive wardrobe
2) Palin repeating *yet again* that a VP can take advantage of constitutional "flexibility" to lord it over the legislative branch
"2) Palin repeating *yet again* that a VP can take advantage of constitutional "flexibility" to lord it over the legislative branch"
To be honest, it's not completely without historical merit, even though the office hasn't been used that way in a long time.
I'm not sure I see anything wrong with the wardrobe expenditures for Palin. The VP candidate has to dress like a VP. If her wardrobe in Alaska wasn't up to snuff, then the RNC was right to upgrade it.
"To be honest, it's not completely without historical merit, even though the office hasn't been used that way in a long time."
Uh, yeah it is. Didn't you watch the John Adams miniseries? Vice Presidents have never done anything of any substance in the Senate.
Ant,
No way...It won't fly. What if you are an RNC donor? Or a McCain donor? No one thinks $150,000 is reasonable for a wardrobe. If it was 10-15K it would have been nothing.
It's not middle class - lord it's ELITIST!
The McGrampa campaign is spinning the polls. Desperation is a b*tch.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14811.html
Wright isn't coming to save the day
I'll give her $50,000 for Wardrobe, that's still more than $1000 a day, but $150,000 is obscene. Thats that combined salaries of three teachers for a year.
it's not completely without historical merit, even though the office hasn't been used that way in a long time.
When 55% of voters think your VP is not qualified (NBC/WSJ), getting "flexible" with powers is not a great idea
Every hockey mom I know spends $1000/day on clothing. Quit whining, people.
Hmmm... Rasmussen is a bit late today
"The McGrampa campaign is spinning the polls. Desperation is a b*tch."
I'm always surprised they never played up Obama's drug use. Having a president who used to abuse cocaine is a big deal. Kinda shocking they never played it up. Oh well, fuck them, go Obama.
I've noticed when he adds writing on the race it is always a few minutes late.
" Thats that combined salaries of three teachers for a year."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonsequitur
Some Al Qaeda affiliates are endorsing John McCain. “Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election,” said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said McCain would continue the “failing march of his predecessor,” President Bush.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/21/AR2008102102477.html?hpid=topnews
PeteKent said...
"No fithier I suppose than Maddow, Sullivan et al who spread the rumors about Trig Palin really not being Sarah's but her daughter's baby."
You are absolutely correct and on behalf of all of those who even suggested this I apologize. The real story is much, much better. While only 8 months pregnant with a child already confirmed to have down syndrom she was in Texas for a meeting of Governors. The day she was supposed to give a key note speech her water broke. She then consulted with her doctor, stayed to give her speech without mentioning the issue to anyone. As soon as her speech was done she did what every woman would and flew 10 hours to get back to Alaska with a stop over in Seattle I believe it was. During neither flight did she indicate to anyone that she was pregnant or more particularly in labor and could potentially deliver her child with special needs a month early in mid flight. Upon reaching Anchorage she bypassed the fine center there and drove an hour to Wasilla to finally deliver her child.
Don't believe me? Look it up, that's the story she herself told. It's the truth!
I would like to see McCAIN REGAIN HIS DIGNITY, STOP THE SLIMY CAMPAIGN AND LOSE LIKE A MAN.
Hard to regain something you never had. McCain like Virginia has two existances, the real one and the fake one.The real McCain is the one we are now seeing, full of anger and hostility, one that is totally devoid of any honor or truthfullness, obsessed only with winning by any means possible simply to satisfy his ego. The historically perceived McCain, the hero, the man of integrity and honor is the fake one, simply a carefully constructed facade to showcase the false positives while hiding the negatives. A study of his biography illustrates this, McCain has NEVER been the "Noble warrior,the self-sacrificing public servant that he would have us believe.He has always been for sell to the highest bidder and his actions have always been those of self promotion,stroking his own ego. Losing like a man then is not possible for McCain for that would be calling for a total change in character, to be soemthing he has never been.
John McCain got a HUGE endorsement this morning. Probably more significant than Powell. McCain has the endorsement of Al Qaeda!
shadowguidex said...
I'm always surprised they never played up Obama's drug use. Having a president who used to abuse cocaine is a big deal. Kinda shocking they never played it up. Oh well, fuck them, go Obama.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yeah, reich-wingers would never elect a president who use to abuse cocaine, alcohol, pot, etc.
sorry guys--I live in nyc, I love clothes, love shoes, love bags. 150K is A LOT of money. The 75K at Neiman's is incredible. I have a close friends who works at Neiman's as a personal shopper to big wigs in DC, she emailed me yesterday to tell me that now that the news is out that they had been gossiping between the stores about how much she had spent at the store in MN. The DC store gets all the politicos and they have never had someone spend that much money in ONE go for a political wardrobe. The exceptions, according to my friend, have been the wives of Emirate Ambassadors. I guess Palin does shop like she comes from an oil producing state eh?
Whatever the political merits anyone who knows clothes and is not currently married to Beckham understands that figure is out of control.
Hotline 47-42...It won't move until they correct their party ids (again).
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
Al-Qaeda will supports McCain
ROFL
"The real McCain is the one we are now seeing, full of anger and hostility, one that is totally devoid of any honor or truthfullness,"
Yeah, sad but true. To think I used to think highly of this guy, mostly because he cosponsored the McCain-Feingold bill, and Feingold is my state's hero.
Rasmussen
O-51
M-45
Starting to move up in this poll... GWU and Hotline are next.
thanks ANT! ...any good tidbits?
Wow the Al Qaeda endorsement of McCain blows the Hamas endorsement of Obama out of the water. The Obama camp has to be dissapointed.
just so you didn't miss it ant:
Hotline 47-42...It won't move until they correct their party ids (again).
I believe Sarah Palin is the Number 1 reason for the state of the McCain campaign. There are just too many folks giving her as the reason for voting for Obama. I think McCain had a good chance of winning until Gov Palin, by accepting the position, showed the world that she doesn't know what she doesn't know - and highlighted McCain's very bad judgement.
The clothes simply highlight the stupidity, in that she presumably didn't think it would be noticed - or be of concern. It may not matter to lots of folks - but it will matter to some - and will lose a few more votes to the other side.
What is hotline's party weight?
Told ya. Obama gained on Ras. Bank it, it goes up again tommorrow.
Rasmussen is starting to make these 2 point jumps back and forth. 2 up and 2 down. Its been going from 4 to 6 almost everyday.
Rasmussen
O-51
M-45
As always - thanks for the update Antmatic.
The PA Morning Call poll is:
O-52
M-41 (-1)
Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.
Mr. 538,
If you're so smart why don't you have scenario analysis results for "Obama loses PA but wins election"?
You're missing the big story.
one more point about the wardrobe--watch this will be HUGE fodder on the entertainment shows. They will dissect every outfit, they will have fashion and design consultants. This will be another running gag. And it will be that because she made herself out to be a 'regular gal' and put ALL her credibility on that. The Cinderella-makeover story only gets you high-fives and adoration if you are seen to deserve it and in most peoples mind she does not. She has mocked those who dress for a living in fancy clothes now comes pay back. Just hilarious how every single attack they have waged has come back to bite them in the you know what.
McCain spin - Al Qaeda is afraod of me, knows I'll destroy-dalize them, and they want to fool the American people. They know whoever they endorse will lose, so they endorse the only REAL American, me, John S. McCain the Third.
McCain is just a loser.
If McCain wins PA I will eat my own poop...
Hotline's ID was
41D 37R Yesterday.
"The Cinderella-makeover story only gets you high-fives and adoration if you are seen to deserve it and in most peoples mind she does not"
This is tremendously insightful.
Biden and Palin. Ive never seen two VP canidates that have been such gaffe machines.
Ok. Serious question. What is Party Weighing and why is having it such a good idea?
Rasmussen yesterday:
O 50
M 46
"The race has remained very stable over the past month and Obama’s support has not dipped below 50% in nearly a month "
If Rasmussen today shows:
O 51
M 45
This continues the trend.
No McCain surge. No surprise. No secret super weapon. Not even good news for cats.
thanks shadow! just giving the 'i used to be obsessed with fashion before I moved on to politics' insight. ;-)
Nick said...
Biden and Palin. Ive never seen two VP canidates that have been such gaffe machines.
Actually Biden has been largely gaffe free. The right wingers have been weighting literally weeks between each statement they could possibly pounce on, while Palin gives us another gift every couple of days
Biden doesn't really gaffe per se, he just speaks a bit too honestly. We all know what he said about the world testing Obama is true, Biden is just unafraid to say so. They would test McCain also, it's very common to new presidents.
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