Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Nutmeg State, Connecticut.
HOME OF JOE LIEBERMAN, Connecticut is the wealthiest state in the nation on a per capita basis. Christopher Shays is the lone Republican House member in New England's delegation, and Democrats are targeting this seat in a year that isn't seeing a close Presidential race or any statewide races. In another wave year, with Barack Obama on the ballot, this is a race to watch. The state's seven electoral votes are safe for Barack Obama.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
As with several other blue states, John McCain's solace comes from statistics that don't happen to favor Barack Obama as forcefully as they do in other states. Youth population, for example, is 3d lowest by percentage in the nation. And McCain's fundraising is 2d highest per capita of anywhere. There are relatively more elderly voters in Connecticut, and about a third of the voters in this blue state are independents. That's about where it stops for John McCain.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Obama's statistical edges are numerous. Low gun ownership, low "American" ancestry, relatively higher same-sex household percentage and Starbucks:Walmart (even in this Dunkin' Donuts state) and not many military veterans. On the religious front, very few white evangelicals, very many Catholics, and not a lot of Mormons. Only five states went for Kerry by bigger margins, it's the 5th most liberal state on the Likert scale. Obama has very strong fundraising here, and the state is well-educated. Except for the age factor, nearly every demographic edge Obama could want in his favor, he has in Connecticut.
What To Watch For
The post-election expulsion of Joe Lieberman from the Democratic Party caucus, and whether Harry Reid has the balls to do it.
10.18.2008
Road to 270: Connecticut
@ 2:11 PM
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Nice Article
Patriiotic Americans Against Ignorance.
http://www.cafepress.com/lgbtpress.318893233 ( t-shirt )
GOP WITCH HUNT
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/17/gop-rep-channels-mccarthy_n_135735.html
That ticking clock is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
The paragraph in your last posting still shocks (where the voters claim to be voting for the n***er), but doesn't shock, me. As long as we have so-called "respectable" republican leaders like this who claim that crime would go down if all black babies were aborted, this will be a problem in the USA.
Ah, my wonderful (if boring) home state! Let me brag for a minute: per capita, we give more money to the federal government compared to how much we get back than anyone else. We generally have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country; back during the Clinton years it was often around 2%. Can't believe we aren't #1 in education, I'm pretty sure we used to be. Not only is CT chock full of wine-track liberals, there's a sizable AA population in the small, depressed rust-belt cities.
Expelling Lieberman is a stupid idea. It was only four years ago that we were talking about a "permanent Republican majority." I can't believe Democrats would be so myopic. Just beat him next time.
Hold on to your seat. folks. According to Greg Palast, the GOP is attempting to steal this election.
Richest ste, one of the highest tax states. A strange mix.
Gallup stable, down one for McCain.
Every stable day is an OBama win.
Headline on Drudge:
McCain: Obama policies Socialist
Finally, the truth comes out. Obama wants to turn the country into a European style social democratic welfare state......
For those who want to see Obama live in MO:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gGg2Nq
We did beat Lieberman in the primary, it was you freakin' idiots that elected him as an independent.
Before the off-topic trolls start, I had a question about the demographic model.
I notice that you use "per capita" income rather than household income. Couldn't per capita income be made a little higher by having smaller household sizes? A one income household, with the wage earner making 100,000 dollars, and with a five person family, would make 20,000 per capita, whereas a couple with no children making 30,000 each would be making 30,000 per capita and 60,000 in all.
On a large scale, does it make much of a difference demographically?
Ct may not be competitive in 2008, but its senate race in 2010 could have some interest. Chris Dodd may not seek reelection, but if he does he is less popular than ever it seems. If he doesn't run maybe Ned Lamont might have another shot? But it COULD be a seat that if Obama is not at that point a wildly popular President, the GOP targets.
Socialist? Bush just forwarded the most socialistic policies in our history with his buying of banks.
Brad, don't be ignorant. Nobody, including the left uses registered voters for polling this close to the election.
May I just say here, and I know it's off topic, but I'm so fed up with all this blathering about "Socialism," as if it's a Bad Word.
So may I say this?:
So Socialism is the the new
F Word.
Fine.
But does anyone even know what 'socialism' means?
I think some people get confused between "socialism" "fascism" "capitalism" "republicanism" and "communism."
The difference between Communism and Socialism is more than just LIPSTICK.
Socialism is simply using MORE of our TAX dollars for DOMESTIC, SOCIAL projects, and LESS for SUBSIDIZING FAT CATS.
I'm an American living in France, and I can tell you, socialism works.
The government here does not "tell us what to do."
They don't "take our money."
They don't "redistribute wealth."
That, my friends, is called "communism."
If you want to make a s**tload of money, like Pinault, nobody's going to stop you.
My wife and I gross about 65,000 Euro/ year, and we pay 27% Income tax.
They regulate the industries (nothing wrong with that!) And yes, they partly own public utilities, such as the gas and electricity services.
The Phone Co leases its line to private broadband providers, which allows for low cost, competitive ISPs; most people pay 30 euro/month for a "triple play" boxes: ADSL, cable TV, and VoiP.
The trains are state owned, but run by private subcontractors under VERY strict guidelines; we haven't had a fatal accident in many years, and people complain if the train is 5 minutes late. Why? Because it very rarely happens.
The state does the paper work and collects the taxes for health care (for me, about 25 euros/month)
Speaking of healthcare, last month, for my share of 25 euros, I got an endoscopy with follow-up and meds, an emergency hand operation, and a filling replaced. All with doctors of my choice, and with an average wait time of 2 weeks, except the hand operation which was in the ER of a private hand clinic. I had to pay about 200 euro upfront for all that, but got fully reimbursed by my company's supplemental insurance, of which I pay 5 euro/month.
They're very stringent about labor laws (which means it's harder for employees to fire you for no reason) and other than that, it's not much different than the States.
If you wanted to run against Bush, you should have done it in 2004
There you go independents, the new democratic party wants to be Socialists........
I don't see the advantage to pushing Lieberman further towards the Republicans. Except on the war he is probably more consistently Democratic than some others still within the party. It makes sense to keep him on side for some votes, and pull over liberal Republicans for other votes - afterall, no matter what he is in the Senate for another four years.
I'm all for giving the Senate Majority Leader position to someone better than Harry Reid though, someone who will be able to push through the Democrat agenda. Hopefully someone has the sense to push for Hillary Clinton in the role - there could be no better friend of Obama's in the position when it comes to getting a decent health care package passed.
Rather than kick Lieberman out of the D caucus, he should be removed from chair of the homeland security committee. He's a Benedict Arnold but he could still be useful to the party.
See who made it into Hypocrites Hall of Infamy
JBN the closer you get to the election, the more accurate RV numbers are, especially in high turnout years. I also thnk that this year might see a higher than usual number of 'unlikely' voters. So even the RV voter numbers mightr be on the low side.
If you wanted to run against Bush, you should have done it in 2004
If McCain was truly the Maverick he claims to be, he would have dropped the GOP label and run against Bush himself in 2004. (Instead of doing "everything he could" to get him re-elected.)
Lamont was not exactly a stellar candidate (e.g. going on vacation right after winning the primary), and the Republicans did a great job getting their members to vote for Lieberman. How much value is he going to have for them if the foreign policy situation calms down under Obama and he continues to caucus with the Democrats on domestic issues?
IIRC, Lieberman's popularity nosedived shortly after he was re-elected. Take another clean shot at him in the next cycle. Did too many Dems get fooled? Yeah. Will they get fooled again? Doubt it.
Anyway, my main point is that kicking Lieberman out of the caucus is a cocky move. It probably won't further impact his reelection chances, and these things move in cycles. Every vote for a Dem senate leader is another race Republicans have to win somewhere else.
Bye Bye Shays...
Republicans don't agree with Lieberman on virtually domestic issue, but would allow him to caucus with us because he believes in the safety and security of the country. Indeed his is not anti-american.
marky mark-
Great point.
Lets not feed the trolls.
Matthew-
I would assume the per capita number does not include children.
Dear you guys,
Please write a user-friendly book exposing the Republicon political machine. Everything they do is disgraceful. Everything. From McCarthy to McCain, they are a blight on democracy, the soul of our nation.
Expose them.
McCain and the GOP are terrorists! Their tactics of setting up their opponent for defeat are just like those of Osama Bin Laden.
They have lied, their lying now and will continue to lie. And they call themselves honorable, patriotic and respectful.
The GOP is like an abusive husband who would rather see his wife dead than free of him. Our country will die if we yield to the GOP's terrorist tactics and lies.
Hey markey,
Love the clothes you are wearing.....very sexy.....
But before you come to a blog with an opinion, you might want at least 1% of the population agree with you.
Lieberman will lose in the next election.
Also, I'm hoping as well for Clinton to be the new Senate Majority Leader.
How dumb can the McCain campaign get?
Well consider this from his speech today where he calls Obama a socialist because he thinks (wrongly) that Obama will resdistribute wealth by giving out "tax credits" to those who pay no taxes.
Both lines below from the SAME McCain speech this morning:
"Since you can't reduce taxes on those who pay zero, the government will write them all checks called a tax credit." (actually a false charge)
Then, incredibly, a few lines later-
"I will provide every single American family with a $5000 refundable tax credit to help them purchase health care insurance."
The can't even keep their own shit straight! Can you imagine these bozos trying to govern?
Actually Repubs don't believe in governing which is why a mere 85% of Americans believe the country is going to Republican hell right now.
But in spite of that they are using the most nasty scare tactics I've ever seen in a campaign. We can only hope the press does its job over the next two weeks and exposes this shit the same way it did earlier in the campaign with other McCain trash.
If I was the Obama team I'd question the honor and integrity of a man who hires the SAME firm which smeared him with robo-calls in 2000 to now smear Obama. What kind of lowlife are we dealing with here? That's the story going forward- a man so filled with lust for power that he will do anything including hiring the same thugs who broke his legs in 2000 to break Obama's legs.
Disgusting!
Paul
lani-
It is the voter suppression that makes Republicans into true anti=American bigots. Voting is primary to a democracy, and any group that intentionally supprssses one vote is un-American and must be rooted out.
He won't be running next time. He will either be in a McCain administration or in the event of a loss retire to the private sector. He is tired of the corruption and anti-Americanism of the NEW democrat party.
here here! arjuna 74
I have always said that if McCain is such a maverick, why didn't he change his party affiliation to independent like his pal Liebermann?
That would prove he was a true maverick. Otherwise he's the same old same old.
Please don't forget that blogs are one thing and donating to campaigns is another:
Fight for 61 in the Senate (to hedge against turncoat Lieberman):
Jim Martin
Ronny Musgrove
jack-be-nimble-
Interestingly even Gallup RV number is closer to its expanded model than it is to the traditional voter model that requires prior voting. This round there is at aleast an argument the RV is as good as LV because of the AA and youth turnout.
Early voting has alredy confirmed the AA vote will turn out...
Like a house guest who overflows the toilet, if I were the Dems, I'd just pretend that the whole Lieberman tiff never happened. It's a repuglican thing to be vindictive and vengeful.
I think getting Collins out of Maine is in order. The Republicans are so dishonorable, running a campaign to even hint that Dems are not patriotic. We all need to remove these fools before the next Salem Witch Hunt begins with Joe the Plumber presiding over our future.
I think that when the new Senate is sworn in, Reid should just take away Lieberman's committee chairmanship, but leave him alone otherwise.
This punishes Joe for supporting the opposition EVEN THOUGH HE PROMISED TO WORK FOR THE 2008 DEM CANDIDATE during his 2006 Senate run. But it won't be seen (by non-wingnuts) as excessively partisan or punitive. Let Joe decide who he wants to caucus with - he's still a Dem on most non-war, non-security issues.
Lets get Bachmaann and her McCarthy-ism out of office.
http://www.actblue.com/page/nonewmccarthy
CT has been hit very hard by the Financial Crisis.
It is the bedroom community for the wealthiest of Wall Streeters and the 95 Corridor may boast among the richest stretch of 100 miles in the country.
The entire economy of this the most populous area in the State along the Long Island Sound is dependent on Wall Street or other big corporate jobs.
Many investment bankers and their lawyers and accountants love in Greenwich, Stamford, Westport, New Canaan, on and on. They eat in the restaurants and shop in the stores. The work out in the gyms and rejuvenate in the spas. It is a life of consumption.
The Wall Street crowd and the many millions whose livelihoods depends on their prosperity may be a Jump Ball this election.
Historically, Republicans have been pro-Wall Street, but this year the party has become reflexively populist.
If you think about it, this makes sense. The great financial centers have been in the clutches of Democrat politicians for quite some time. At one time NY was a reliably Republican State. No longer. The GOP is no longer competitive in CT or NJ as well. By default Wall St has become the Democrats problem. I wonder if proximity will corrupt them.
If Obama is President, it will be a lean Christmas in Darien.
He’ll own the banks and their lives.
Socialism!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/blog/stateupdates
You want to see what 100,000 + looks like? Obama-Biden 08
Screw Joe. If Joe is not running for office again he is not a reliable vote anyway. LEt him go support Israel, that is what he wants to do and it is the idiots from CT who voted in a guy who is so anti-American he supports another country.
Is it just me or is jbn and pk getting weirder every day?
If Lieberman publically apologizes to Obama, I think the Dems should allow him in the caucus.
When is a new majority leader selected? I would love to see Reid out of the leadership position and someone like Barbara Boxer as majority leader. The majority leader really should be from a "safe" state, witness Daschle.
lani - exactly. If he's a Maverick, Palin's a Rhodes Scholar.
Palin is a "roads" scholar - it took five colleges to get a bachelor's!!!!!
On Lieberman:
Best move for those with brains, not just (understandable) revenge notions -
Reid should take him aside, say if he wants to caucus with Dems and keep his seniority, fine, but it comes with a condition - he will ALWAYS vote for cloture when Reid wants him to. If he doesn't, he's out.
It will only be on cloture votes when we need him, and he might be needed badly.
On Clinton on Majority Leader -
This will never happen. Why?
1) The position is organizational, not issue-oriented. Clinton wants to push issues, not process.
2) Reid will want the job with a Dem president.
3) Two other much more senior Dems want it - Dick Durbin and Chris Dodd.
4) No Dem Senator who endorsed Obama in the primaries would vote for her out of fear for retribution.
5) It's way too much of a lightning rod/partisuan position to have if she's thinking of running for president again.
Nice piece Sean. As a resident of CT I can say this is satndard conventional wisdom for CT, but there are some other interesting things about the state.
The democratic party is failry bifurcated. If you look at the primaries the Hillary voters are probably more likely to be working class, and live in the old industrial parts of the state. Obama voters are the college educated in the wealthier parts of the state. I live in an old industrial area that was solidly pro Bush and is pro McCain, at least judging from yard signs. Based on the election results in 2004 I think Bush could have won CT had he visited here a couple of times, but he probably figured he did not need CT to win, rightly.
Chris Shays seems to have nine lives - Himes seems to have the edge at the moment, but I'll believe it when I see it. David Capiello (R) is trying to unseat freshman Chris Murphy (D). Kissinger had a fund raiser for Capiello at his home in Litchfield earlier this year, but so far Murphy retains a lead in the polls, fund raising and cash on hand.
A name to watch for from CT? Dan Debicella. He's a republican state senator that I think is being groomed for bigger and better things, possibly Dodd's seat.
Let's face it, guys and gals.
Either Obama wins clean or McCain wins dirty.
If the former happens, America will be on the road to healing its divisive wounds, and our image in the world will take a major uptick. It could even help our battered stock market as foreign capital will be directed once again to American investments.
If the latter happens, McCain will preside over a bitterly divided nation that will be on the edge of a civil uprising. Our bad economy and the fact that McCain will have achieved a "pyrhic victory" with lies and smears will make it impossible for him to govern effectively.
This election will truly be a national "IQ test". Let's see how smart we are.
Thanks Brad. I shot $25 against Bachmann.
Durbin would be sure much better as majority leader than Reid it is not even funny...
Thank you Oct! I sent $100, but I have given to so many candidates I am going to be in the dog house for a year when the wife opens the MasterCard!
Hrm, interestingly, my 88 year old very conservative father lives in a rich NJ suburb populated with a lot of Wall Streeters who have already lost their jobs. My father has never voted for a Democrat for anything in his life. And, as one might expect from his age, he does have a tinge of racism in him.
I live in MA, and when I spoke to him last week, even though I figured our popular votes would cancel each other out, I wanted to be sure he had a way to get to the polls. Everyone should vote, if they agree with me or not. I figured it wasn't too early for me to start calling around down there to arrange a ride for him, if he needed it.
He assured me he'd already made his arrangements. And he's going to be voting for That One. If you read Peggy Noonan's editorial from yesterday, it pretty much follows along with his thinking.
@Jen
"Is it just me or is jbn and pk getting weirder every day?"
It's called "desperation". Pete may have been humbled by the sight of the crowd in St. Louis.
You want to see what 100,000 + looks like? Obama-Biden 08
That's quite the mob of angry, anti-American, socialists! MO is obviously a den of unamericansim!
why doesn't RCP use the 50-42 Gallup Poll that MSNBC is running in their averages. And, speaking of 9/11 I am in the buckeye state and McCain and Repubs are showing a disgusting commercial that shows the plane crashing into the tower and out of the fire the faces of those responsible and then say How Obama and the dems want illegals to have licenses in this country. THey went on to say this is how the killers in 9/11 got into this country.
aunt Karen-
Thanks Dad!
Liberman has to go. Reid wont have the guts to kick him out of the caucus unless they have a clear path to a majority without him. If Reid thinks he can get what he wants with the help the handful of republicans he needs to override a veto, he wont have any need for Liberman in the caucus any more.
Both Durbin or Dodd would be better. Reid is timid on core Dem issues because his home state is purple at best, but tends to be fairly red. He does have to worry about re-election. Illinois and Connecticut are much more reliably Dem so both Durbin or Dodd can really focus on the Democratic agenda.
Wow, Obama attracts the largest crowd yet, over 100,000 people in St.Luis.
Take this macain/palin
The Coming Supermajority: Chairman Lieberman
It’s you, Jen.
You perhaps did not read my post, but it was a dispassionate economic analysis of the state of the electorate in CT that allows the reader to supply his or her own conclusion.
Did you have one?
As far as Lieberman goes, I suspect Obama will embrace him warmly after the election and vow to win him over and that he respects Lieberman's motivations.
Lieberman will get whatever he wants short of being Whip or Majority Leader as the Dems will need the reliability of his vote to ramrod through their pork and fraud agenda on the American people. No doubt his view of Iraq policy will prevail, allowing Obama to drive the last nail into the Neo-Con coffin. A marriage made in heaven!
Having Lieberman on board will assure a lower degree of scrutiny of an Obama administration and the activities of the Democratic Congress. My experience here has taught me that allowing liberals to control things eventually leads to the trimming of civil liberties and I will miss the free exchange of ideas afforded to us all here. All Hail the Second Coming of the Fairness Doctrine!
Criticism from McCain will be dismissed as "sour grapes".
This is what a Supermajority will do for us.
buckeye,
RCP is pro McCain. They manipulate the average in McCain's favor.
"And, speaking of 9/11 I am in the buckeye state and McCain and Repubs are showing a disgusting commercial that shows the plane crashing into the tower and out of the fire the faces of those responsible and then say How Obama and the dems want illegals to have licenses in this country. THey went on to say this is how the killers in 9/11 got into this country."
___________________________________
Wow, that might work if people's number one issue was still terrorism. I love how Republicans always want to refight the prior war or campaign. Not to even mention the factual issues with the ad.
Harry Reid is going to continue to be the Dem Majority leader. Nothing is going to change. Complaining here is not going to change anything.
Because both Dodd and Durbin want the job, and Reid still does, neither one of them will challenge Reid even if he wanted to. And Reid would win a straight out vote anyway.
And how can anyone judge how good a Maj Leader Reid would be until he has a Dem President and a real majority?
100,000 at Obama rally in St. Louis today.
Bread and Circuses
I think only the RV screen is reliable. Even that is weighted by party ID, I believe, so there is a certain variability built in.
You can read what you like into any poll, but you must respect 100,000 under the Arch in St. Louis.
Do you think they were serving Barbecue?
Petekent
But Bush spies on common US citizens by wiretapping our overseas conversations. The biggest erosion of civil liberties occurred under Bush. They listened in on US soldiers for Christ sake.
Are you still here petekent? Thought you would have gone away by now.
Sometimes having to scroll by the long posts makes my finger a little numb. I do not appreciate it much.
petekent,
Lean in Darien under Obama?
As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years.
Damned facts and their liberal leanings.
I agree Lieberman has got to go.
The 100k+ crowd in MO is great. The pictures are amazing. It reminds me of Obama's huge rally in WA at the end of the primary.
Excellent post, franglais.
Socialism is not communism.
If McCain steals election, I'm moving to France.
BTW, did you all see that the networks are planning for a short night Nov 4?
Connecticut is a perfect example of how the two parties have FLIPPED since 1968. If you look at the 1948 election of Truman, you see Truman winning the "solid South" while New York Republican governor Dewey carried traditionally Republican New England!
When the "Solid South" flipped to the Republicans over white racist resentment of the civil rights movement, the Reagan coalition was born: the South, plus the traditional Republican states in the Mid-west, plus the Rocky Mountain West, plus the Northeast.
Nixon and Reagan carried all these regions, but sometime during the 1980s things began to go wrong.
Connecticut last voted Republican for Bush in 1988.
Once the home of moderate Republicans, the last Northeastern Republican Chris Shays (CT-04) will be gone this November.
It took a generation, but northerners, resentful of the Southern dominance of the Republican party have switched to the Democrats.
Now we're in the midst of a historic re-alignment with states like Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida switching to the Democrats.
The most racist person I know is voting Obama!
He told me this summer:
1. "I heard Obama is a muslim and he's related to Osama Bin Laden."
2. "Obama won't even wear a flag-pin! How can he be commander in chief if he's not even patriotic?"
3. "I heard he got his start from a terrorist."
When I debunked all these lies, he was silent for a moment, and then got to the heart of his concerns:
"If Obama wins then all the blacks will be on welfare!" he said.
I told him to focus exclusively on who will put money in his pocket. Is it McCain or Obama? Can you afford to worry about anything other than who's going to fix the economy and put money in your pocket?
He's voting for Obama!
@lat : That was the big rally in Oregon at the end of the primaries.
LAT -
The huge rally late in the primaries was in Portland, Oregon.
100,000+ in Missouri.
Who's energizing the electorate NOW, McFailin?
thanks sfergus! as I was typing I knew I had it wrong. But yes it just reminded me of that, even towards the end people very very excited and coming out and shocking the nation with the numbers. I love that. No complacency from the Obama corner.
"And Reid would win a straight out vote anyway."
How so?
"And how can anyone judge how good a Maj Leader Reid would be until he has a Dem President and a real majority?"
I think he will always be timid on strongly advocating and pushing the Dem agenda because of being constrained by re-election concerns in a state that trends somewhat conservative/libertarian as Nevada does. I think we would be better served as Dems by a Majority leader from a safe seat.
Holy moly! That's one impressive picture, subterranean. Thanks for posting the link.
BTW, I threw some money in against Bachman (turner overdrive - sorry, had to do it, my age is showing!). I did it right from her opponents site, though - I don't always trust the middleman.
In LAT's defense, the Portland rally was so big the crowd extended over the banks of the Willamette into Washington....
Jen
Harry Reid is very popular with his colleagues; there are other Sens waiting to replace him when he leaves, but don't want to lose now, which would hurt them; and Obama won't want to have an intraparty fight right off the bat.
There has been absolutely zero indication of any interest in challenging Reid within the caucus. It's not going to happen.
LOL sfergus Thanks for the forgiving defense of my putting my foot in my mouth (or the blog equivalent)
Here's a picture from CNN of 100,000 people underneath the Arch today for Obama. Crazy. Biggest crowd yet? I can't remember any larger ones. Wasn't the Denver DNC capped at 60K?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/18/scenes-from-the-trail-100000-in-st-louis-for-obama/
Aunt Karen.... thanks for Taking Care of Business (couldn't resist)
SCOTUS: The Last Redoubt of our Liberty
Eavesdropping is terrible and the nation must re-examine its security priories. Much as we did after WW2 and realized that measures such as the forced dislocation and internment of Japanese citizens and permanent residents was violative of Constitutional Rights, so we may reconsider the security measures that the Bush Admin took.
The Courts can and will ultimately resolve this. Notice that the Conservative Supreme Ct lead by Justice Roberts has required trials in the case of terrorist detainees and has mandated a "hands off" attitude on the part of the Courts where it comes to electoral disputes (OH registration case this week). We might be seeing the beginning of the unraveling of Bush v. Gore.
The point of course is that these things tend to be self-correcting and that the public order must be allowed a certain amount of flex to accommodate extraordinary circumstances.
Permanent legislative action can be unwise and executive orders more effective. As long as the Court stands by as the arbiter of last resort.
Miami Herald and Denver Post endorse Obama
new thread
When I was voting in my first election back in the 1970s I voted for Republican Stewart McKinney of CT. I looked up his record, and found he was more liberal than his Democratic opponent! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stewart_McKinney_(politician)
In those days before Newt Gingrich polarized Congress it was possible for a Republican to be a liberal, and for a Democrat to be more conservative than some Republicans.
The Reagan right purged their party of all moderates and liberals. In the process they solidified the South (temporarily) as a Republican stronghold.
But, they lost the Northeast, and the upper Mid-west in the process (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa), then the far west (California, Oregon, Washington).
Now finally, they are losing the upper South (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida), as well as the Rocky Mountain West (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana).
Americans have rejected the extremist politics of Reagan long after Reagan died. It took a generation to destroy the Republican party as a governing coalition, but they've succeeded in ways beyond my wildest dreams during the dark days of the 1984 election!
Trickle-down economics? Militarism abroad and endless increases in defense at home? Tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires?
GONE! All Gone!
It's going to be a New Deal, really whether Obama wants it or not. Massive and continuing government intervention in the economy is going to be necessary on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.
It's a brand new world people! Republicans? Get used to it!
That pic of Obama in MO is golden!
Just mailed our absentee ballots ( on vacationelection week)....2 proud American votes for Obama/Biden in patriotic Western PA!!!
I have posted before about how the Southern Strategy of the Republican party since 1968 has run its course. I think its getting to the point were they might have to ask themselves if its worth it anymore. They ceded the North East (N England, New York, NJ, MD, PA) to do so. And that is worth a similar amount of EVs. Add in California and the Northwest pair of WA and OR and some of the midwestern states like Minnesota and Michigan, and you are going to get close to 270 more times than not.
Think twice before moving to Europe.
France, Italy and Spain are saturated with nightmarishly bureaucracy. The food, culture and the history is interesting, for a while, then one starts missing space,courtesy and common sense.
Of course an an American living abroad I'd love to have Obama as my president, but after living years in New Zealand and Australia, I'm having difficulties finding better places to raise my family. Europe.
France, Italy and Spain are saturated with nightmarishly bureaucracy. The food, culture and the history is interesting, for a while, then one starts missing space,courtesy and common sense.
After two years in France, we're moving back to Australia or New Zealand, even if Obama gets elected.
Palin isn't drawing any female votes. Nytimes
The southern strategery is not so good without FL and VA and NM and CO. That is the real problem the Repubs face.
Dallas morning news endorses McCain
Well, Real Joe - I think we can safely say TX and OK are safe.
"oct said...
The southern strategery is not so good without FL and VA and NM and CO. That is the real problem the Repubs face."
Actually the real problem is "what is the Republican party going to do without Virginia, Florida, North Carolina?
There isn't much of a "Southern Strategy" left!
It's more a "Deep Southern + the Great Plains" strategy now.
By 2018 Texas will be blue as Hispanics increase their numbers and voting.
Georgia will flip. About the only thing left of the "Reagan coalition" will be Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and the deep South, plus Tennessee, and Kentucky.
It's going to be a lonely world for Republicans over the next 8 years.
Worse, they are going to have to expressly abandon the "angry white working class voter" to have any hope of winning the Presidency ever again. That won't make the declining base of their party very happy.
But, former Whigs weren't happy their party dissolved either back in the 19th century. If Republicans want to avoid becoming the 21st century Whig Party, they can't keep ignoring minorities!
If you wanted to run against Bush, you should have done it in 2004
If you wanted to vote for McCain so much, you should have voted for him in 2000. Republicans thought Bush was better than McCain and we know how Bush turned out to be. Obviously McCain is going to be worse than Bush.
Unless the Democrats end up with 51 or less seats or exactly 60 (including the two independents) I hope Reid pulls the trigger on Lieberman.
Lieberman should (and probably will) lose his chairmanship, but he can stay in caucus if he so desire (preferably he should make a public gesture of support for Obama).
Brad:
Lets get Bachmaann and her McCarthy-ism out of office.
http://www.actblue.com/page/nonewmccarthy
Here is a petition calling for her censure:
http://www.censurebachmann.com/
Keep an eye on Shays/Himes and Connecticut here:
http://www.yourct.com
Himes is closing strong on Shays, who is folding like a cheap suitcase. It is possible Shays will survive, but the latest polling is showing the race tight and moving toward Himes. New polling due out early in the week.
The state Democratic Central Committee will be voting on a resolution of censure of Lieberman at its December meeting - it will be covered on the blogs and likely by the msm.
If Lieberman is stripped of his committee chairmanship, look for him to step out soon. Here's a bit about that: http://www.yourct.com/new/2008/10/14/the-end-of-the-lieberera/
This would mean that both of CT's Senate seats be on the ballot in 2010. It is within the realm of possibility that Dodd's could also be an open seat.
Nate & co - really appreciate the site - use it and cite it often.
Shays is up 10 in a Sacred Heart poll, as Fairfield County leans conservative.
Sorry Bryen.
Nicholas -
The SHU poll was highly suspect. Subsequent polling confirms rumored internals from both Shays and Himes camps. Himes is ahead by about 3 points, within the margin of error of 4 pts.
Shays' rather weird behavior in public statements has confirmed that he is currently headed for defeat.
I comment on that here:
http://www.yourct.com/new/2008/10/18/himes-and-shays-at-norwalk-inn/
Shays is the most centrist congressman in America, and his voting record supports it. He's voted against his party more than any other GOP congressman during the bush years.
Generally Shays loses Bridgeport/Stamford, breaks even or wins left leaning burbs like Westport, and makes significant time in Fiscally Right towns like Darien and Greenwich. What's going to hurt him is that African Americans in Bridgeport/Stamford are going to turn out in droves to vote for Obama, and will vote for his opponent while he's there. When we look at the numbers at the end of the race, I think we'll find that he got at least as many votes as 2006, but dem turnout increased enough in urban areas to defeat him.
I refuse to call the SHU poll an outlier because it really seems to capture Shays's bipartisan support. Kerry won this county by approximately 4% in 2004. This Shays +10 poll also gives Obama a 10% lead on McCain. The obvious conclusion here is that Obama voters in Southwest CT are willing to split their ballot.
I think those who project a loss for Shays aren't very observant. The anti-Republican tides have ebbed quite a bit since 2006, a year in which he won.
If Lieberman wants to run again, he'll have to face someone from the Connecticut for Lieberman Party.
http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:MpDth1q6gUwJ:www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-joeparty0916.artsep16,0,5483457.story+hartford+courant+connecticut+for+lieberman&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
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