Running the numbers. Looks like they'll contain good news for Senator Obama.
Also, I'll be a guest on Charlie Rose tonight.Here is the polling dump while I get the write-up ready...
EDIT: Aww, crap. Got the numbers reversed on a Kentucky poll. Re-running numbers.
...In the meantime, check out Swing State Project's terrific map of poll closing times.
10.31.2008
Quick Notes
@ 7:40 PM
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225 comments
Any chance I'm...
First!
Awesome, Nate, lookin forward to more of the Election Numbers Master!
Good-bye Wall Street!
That's GREAT NEWS for MC CAIN!
Nate on Charlie Rose: there will be a lot of integrity and intelligence on that set!
Nate,
You
re becoming quite the star. Nice new glasses and a good suit on MSNBC. Still need a better tie.
Keep up the good work.
GOBAMA!!!
Anyway, I have finally, for the first time in more than a year, summoned the courage to tune into FOX News again. And I'm delighted. A lot of desparation, plenty of fingerpointing, and still some denial in some quarters, but overall great news - for John McCain.
I would sleep easier if Ed Rendell wasn't constantly asking for Barack to return to PA...
Heard this one yet?
http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html
LA may be going blue..
Palabra de verificacion: unrombpz, como "McCain esta en un rombpz a perder"
"Running the numbers. Looks like they'll contain good news for Senator Obama."
This might be one of the most painfully obvious things that Nate has ever said. He is polling withing 5 points in multiple polls in MT, ND, GA, and AZ polls, while maintaining solid leads in all of the states that he needs to win the presidency. How could he NOT benefit from this set of polls?
So... hints of a big night for Obama. Does he hit 99% tonight?
Great presidents are made great by horrible circumstances combined with character, temperament and intelligence. Like firemen, cops, doctors or soldiers, presidents need a crisis to shine. Obama is one of the most intelligent presidential aspirants to ever step forward in American history. The likes of his intellectual capabilities have not been surpassed in public life since the Founding Fathers put pen to paper. His personal character is also solid gold. Take heart, America: we have the leader for our times.
I say this as a white, former life-long Republican. I say this as the proud father of a Marine. I say this as just another American watching his pension evaporate along with the stock market! I speak as someone who knows it's time to forget party loyalty, ideology and pride and put the country first. I say this as someone happy to be called a fool for going out on a limb and declaring that, 1) Obama will win, and 2) he is going to be amongst the greatest of American presidents. Obama is our last best chance. He's worth laying it all on the line for. This is a man who in the age of greed took the high road of community service. This is the good father and husband. This is the humble servant. This is the patient teacher. This is the scholar statesman. This is the man of deep Christian faith.
Good stories about Obama abound; from his personal relationship with his Secret Service agents (he invites them into his home to watch sports, and shoots hoops with them) to the story about how, more than twenty years ago, while standing in the check-in line at an airport, Obama paid a $100 baggage surcharge for a stranger who was broke and stuck. (Obama was virtually penniless himself in those days.) Years later after he became a senator, that stranger recognized Obama's picture and wrote to him to thank him. She received a kindly note back from the senator. (The story only surfaced because the person, who lives in Norway, told a local newspaper after Obama ran for the presidency. The paper published a photograph of this lady proudly displaying Senator Obama's letter.) Where many leaders are two-faced; publicly kindly but privately feared and/or hated by people closest to them, Obama is consistent in the way he treats people, consistently kind and personally humble. He lives by the code that those who lead must serve. He believes that. He lives it. He lived it long before he was in the public eye.
Obama puts service ahead of ideology. He also knows that to win politically you need to be tough. He can be. He has been. This is a man who does what works, rather than scoring ideological points. In other words he is the quintessential non-ideological pragmatic American. He will (thank God!) disappoint ideologues and purists of the left and the right. Obama has a reservoir of personal physical courage that is unmatched in presidential history. Why unmatched? Because as the first black contender for the presidency who will win, Obama, and all the rest of us, know that he is in great physical danger from the seemingly unlimited reserve of unhinged racial hatred, and just plain unhinged ignorant hatred, that swirls in the bowels of our wounded and sinful country. By stepping forward to lead, Obama has literally put his life on the line for all of us in a way no white candidate ever has had to do. (And we all know how dangerous the presidency has been even for white presidents.)
Nice stories or even unparalleled courage isn't the only point. The greater point about Obama is that the midst of our worldwide financial meltdown, an expanding (and losing) war in Afghanistan, trying to extricate our country from a wrong and stupidly mistaken ruinously expensive war in Iraq, our mounting and crushing national debt, awaiting the next (and inevitable) al Qaeda attack on our homeland, watching our schools decline to Third World levels of incompetence, facing a general loss of confidence in the government that has been exacerbated by the Republicans doing all they can to undermine our government's capabilities and programs...President Obama will take on the leadership of our country at a make or break time of historic proportions. He faces not one but dozens of crisis, each big enough to define any presidency in better times.
As luck, fate or divine grace would have it (depending on one's personal theology) Obama is blessedly, dare I say uniquely, well-suited to our dire circumstances. Obama is a person with hands-on community service experience, deep connections to top economic advisers from the renowned University of Chicago where he taught law, and a middle-class background that gives him an abiding knowledgeable empathy with the rest of us. As the son of a single mother, who has worked his way up with merit and brains, recipient of top-notch academic scholarships, the peer-selected editor of the Harvard Law Review and, in three giant political steps to state office, national office and now the presidency, Obama clearly has the wit and drive to lead.
Obama is the sober voice of reason at a time of unreason. He is the fellow keeping his head while all around him are panicking. He is the healing presence at a time of national division and strife. He is also new enough to the political process so that he doesn't suffer from the terminally jaded cynicism, the seen-it-all-before syndrome afflicting most politicians in Washington. In that regard we Americans lucked out. It's as if having despaired of our political process we picked a name from the phone book to lead us and that person turned out to be a very man we needed.
Obama brings a healing and uplifting spiritual quality to our politics at the very time when our worst enemy is fear. For eight years we've been ruled by a stunted fear-filled mediocrity of a little liar who has expanded his power on the basis of creating fear in others. Fearless Obama is the cure. He speaks a litany of hope rather than a litany of terror.
As we have watched Obama respond in a quiet reasoned manner to crisis after crisis, in both the way he has responded after being attacked and lied about in the 2008 campaign season, to his reasoned response to our multiplying national crises, what we see is the spirit of a trusted family doctor with a great bedside manner. Obama is perfectly suited to hold our hand and lead us through some very tough times. The word panic is not in the Obama dictionary. America is fighting its "Armageddon" in one fearful heart at a time. A brilliant leader with the mild manner of an old-time matter-of-fact country doctor soothing a frightened child is just what we need. The fact that our "doctor" is a black man leading a hitherto white-ruled nation out of the mess of its own making is all the sweeter and raises the Obama story to that of moral allegory.
Obama brings a moral clarity to his leadership reserved for those who have had to work for everything they've gotten and had to do twice as well as the person standing next to them because of the color of their skin. His experience of succeeding in spite of his color, social background and prejudice could have been embittering or one that fostered a spiritual rebirth of forgiveness and enlightenment. Obama radiates the calm inner peace of the spirit of forgiveness.
Speaking as a believing Christian I see the hand of a merciful God in Obama's candidacy. The biblical metaphors abound. The stone the builder rejected is become the cornerstone... the last shall be first... he that would gain his life must first lose it... the meek shall inherit the earth...For my secular friends I'll allow that we may have just been extraordinarily lucky! Either way America wins. Only a brilliant man, with the spirit of a preacher and the humble heart of a kindly family doctor can lead us now. We are afraid, out of ideas, and worst of all out of hope. Obama is the cure. And we Americans have it in us to rise to the occasion. We will. We're about to enter one of the most frightening periods of American history. Our country has rarely faced more uncertainty. This is the time for greatness. We have a great leader. We must be a great people backing him, fighting for him, sacrificing for a cause greater than ourselves.
A hundred years from now Obama's portrait will be placed next to that of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt. Long before that we'll be telling our children and grandchildren that we stepped out in faith and voted for a young black man who stood up and led our country back from the brink of an abyss.
We'll tell them about the power of love, faith and hope.
We'll tell them about the power of creativity combined with humility and intellectual brilliance.
We'll tell them that President Obama gave us the gift of regaining our faith in our country.
We'll tell them that we all stood up and pitched in and won the day.
We'll tell them that President Obama restored our standing in the world.
We'll tell them that by the time he left office our schools were on the mend, our economy booming, that we'd become a nation filled with green energy alternatives and were leading the world away from dependence on carbon-based destruction.
We'll tell them that because of President Obama's example and leadership the integrity of the family was restored, divorce rates went down, more fathers took responsibility for their children, and abortion rates fell dramatically as women, families and children were cared for through compassionate social programs that worked.
We'll tell them about how the gap closed between the middle class and the super rich, how we won health care for all, how crime rates fell, how bad wars were brought to an honorable conclusion.
We'll tell them that when we were attacked again by al Qaeda, how reason prevailed and the response was smart, tough, measured and effective, and our civil rights were protected even in times of crisis.
We'll tell them that we were part of the inexplicably blessed miracle that happened to our country those many years ago in 2008 when a young black man was sent by God, fate or luck to save our country.
We'll tell them that it's good to live in America where anything is possible. Yes we will.
-Frank Schaeffer is the author of CRAZY FOR GOD-How I Grew Up As One Of The Elect, Helped Found The Religious Right, And Lived To Take All (Or Almost All) Of It Back.
Nate,
I heard Kohut from Pew talking about the undecideds. He discription of them sounds much more like McCain voters and he predicts that they will break much more for McCain. I wondered if many are typical McCain voters but he has not been able to seal the deal. Will they then switch or just not show up? Your thoughts?
Looking forward to it, Nate.
Can't wait to see LA and/or AZ turn blue next week!!!
**shakes fist**
North Dakota better be at 40% or better!
Hey Nate -- congrats also on the name check in New Scientist this week!
verification: nardsca -- the sound of stats junkies drumming their fingers waiting for an update
Sedi said...
Nate on Charlie Rose: there will be a lot of integrity and intelligence on that set!
_______________________
Really? I've only seen him once, interviewing Chomsky, and he came across as a bit of a simpleton.
timschel said...
I would sleep easier if Ed Rendell wasn't constantly asking for Barack to return to PA...
The Gov, God bless him, is a professional concern troll. He should go back to celebrating the Phils championship.
is this it? no poll post??
have lost out you to Charlie Rose?
i thought we were closer than that Nate!
for those in doubt it looks like success has finally spoiled Nate Silver...
Oh Nate, you're such a tease.
Nate, you are such a poll tease.
Now I have to sit here and hit reload for however long it takes to see today's update.
Rendell's comments bother me, too. Or is it part of a strategy to keep from going complacent and to continue to draw McFailin in?
GO COMMUNITY ORGANIZERS!!!
GOBAMA!!!
zech,
Anyone interviewing Chomsky comes across as a bit of a simpleton.
Wow Charlie Rose, hopefully the website will update that quicky, or put it on youtube quickly. One of the reasons I like the Charlie Rose show is it makes all of its content very available.
Good news for Obama is GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
New numbers!
one last time watching jools holland [popular music show on beeb] waiting for numbers.
runnning order every week:
1.brit indie band
2.american singer new and cool or old hero.
3.world mmusic.
4.some chat with old rocker.
5.back to indie band.
WV - i'll have torashis of bacon?
Eric said...
I gotta respond to both,
markymark said...
eric,
Actually all that stopped Cuomo from being President is really all that stopped him being a major league baseball star, I believe- confidence.
Want to know what was possible for Cuomo in 1988- think what has happened to Obama in 2008. Imagine if Obama hadn't gone for it and never got another chance, we might be looking back in 20 years time saying 'too black too elitist to wordy' to win.
I think if Cuomo wanted to go for it in 1988 he could have and may well have won. He would have won a more in tune campaign than Dukakis did (and remember that Dukakis didn't do as badly at the polls as sometimes history remembers, the popular vote was actually not so much of a blowout). And I think Cuomo would have had the eloquence to match his story into the American story.
Dukakis was the first politician that inspired me. I volunteered for him as a kid. Cheered him on all the way from Iowa to the end. Cut press clippings out of the paper everyday throughout. Coming out of the convention in 1988 I had three new favorites. Ann Richards, Bill clinton, and extra-especially Mario Cuomo. i remembered Cuomo from '84, but I was about 7 yrs old at the time, so didn't really appreciate him until '88. I remember thinking, I love Dukakis, but why won't this guy run. He's as sharp or sharper, more charismatic, better speaker. Matched up well with Dukakis. Much better than Gary hart or Richard Gephardt or Al Gore or Joe Biden or whoever else Dukakis had run against. He gave a sound verdict on Reagan policies that hold even more true today. I wonder what could have been. 8 years of Cuomo, then what of Slick Willie and W.? Hmmmm.
Dead Cat Bounce said...
I would dock Dukakis more for imploding the way he did. He basically looked at that 15+ pt lead he had coming out of the convention and assumed he could coast the rest of the way. He didn't seem to wake up to what Lee Atwater was doing to him until it was too late to do anything, even though everyone else was screaming for him to respond someway, anyway. It reminds me of the Oilers blowing that 32 pt halftime lead against the Bills in the AFC championship game.
I still say he put up a better fight than Dole. He choked, but I don't know at least he had a lead and id some really good things. FYI, I grew up in Houston. My father had season tickets through Luv Ya Blue. I started going to Oilers games with him in 1982 when I was 5 yrs old. I missed one home game between 1982 and when they left and I went off to college in 1995. That 35-3 game was not the worst moment as an Oiler fan there were a few that top it, but I catch your meaning.
"Really? I've only seen him once, interviewing Chomsky, and he came across as a bit of a simpleton."
Rose is a solid interviewer, is very knowledgeable, and is clearly no dummy. I didn't see the Chomsky interview, but Chomsky is a pretty damned smart guy, so looking a dim by comparison is nothing notable. Some might differ, but for my money, Rose is probably the best interviewer on television. Or Colbert, depending on the type of interview.
I can't do anything for PA but I will be canvassing tomorrow here in Orlando, FL. Support is strong in my immediate neighborhood but just down the street where the millionaires live, it's McCain country.
Hard to say if Florida will go blue but it's certainly promising.
>Really? I've only seen him once,
>interviewing Chomsky, and he came
>across as a bit of a simpleton.
Yeah. Chomsky's a dolt.
Obama up to 97.5%. Sweet.
Anyone looking for a Nate fix can listen to him on the KQED (San Francisco NPR station) talk radio show FORUM; it aired this morning.
OT. Here is a little game: suggest punch lines to follow "How many undecideds does it take to screw in a light bulb?
It's all good for Obama as far as one day closer to the big party. But I'm a bit disappointed that MO, IN, and NC are looking good for McCain this week. I want a landslide, dammit.
These numbers are a treat.
(you wouldn't trick us would you?)
Nate on Charlie Rose? This is great news!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!!!!
"so the photos aren't as exciting (we did get a shot of a girl on the beach with "Miami Beach" on her butt, so there's at least that)."
Can someone link me to this photo please?
@JMNorris
Do we need a bulb?
timschel,
haha yay, i'm not the only one nutty about PA today!
i'm glad your governor is being nice about extending early voting hours, though! i think we sent some michigan staff people down to you in florida recently :) do you feel better about it than you did in 2004?
It'll give us something to do while we wait for the new polls anyway.
Oh yeah. Those are nice numbers for Halloween.
Hey, Karl Rove! boo!
wv: haeade
The last refuge of Geaorge W. Bushe before he's taken into custody and sent to The Hague. (Hey, Turdblossom, how's that country's name spelled?)
Today is my brother's birthday,
Happy birthday Jared...
Nate on Charlie Rose: Nate, you've entered, and risen to the top, of the big league.
With all due respect, congratulations, and we are all very proud. Just think, folks, we knew him when...
Tonight's lineup. Nate, you are one of the best, and being in a lineup with Schumer and Brooks says it all. Welcome to the elite.
A conversation with Nate Silver
Nate Silver
A conversation with Senator Chuck Schumer
Chuck Schumer
A conversation with David Brooks
David Brooks
I heard Kohut from Pew talking about the undecideds. He discription of them sounds much more like McCain voters and he predicts that they will break much more for McCain. I wondered if many are typical McCain voters but he has not been able to seal the deal. Will they then switch or just not show up? Your thoughts?
----------------------------
I can't imagine this group being energized to vote and I doubt even less that they will sit in line to vote for someone they are that apathetic to and believe will lose anyway. As for Rendell, I think he is doing the pump fake for McCain to keep spending money and resources in PA.
BTW, he (my brother) is a frequent
reader of comments here but is
reluctant to post. Maybe I can
twist his arm to join in the
discussion because he and talk almost
daily about politics and 538.
Go "O", Go!
First? (witeh new poll #s)
97.5%
gravish: bad but not that bad
yeah, I heard Nate on Forum this morning as well. That makes... four of my everyday media sources that he's either appeared on or been referenced at length, within the last two days. Delightful! :)
In reference to all those saying "Yes but Chomsky's really clever".
It wasn't an adversarial interview, Chomsky wasn't trying to show him up. But he was just really ponderous about getting Chomsky's points - which were exactly the same as Chomsky's points always are and have been for about thirty years - and he made a few basic historical errors.
Anyway, I dare say I'm wrong, he probably just had an off day.
I figured today was good for Obama. All tracking polls were essentially unmoved except R2000 and Gallup where Obama gained 2 or 3 points in each.
Marist was +7.
State polling looked good as well.
Highlight for me was CO +10 with the internals saying 65% had already voted.
That puts less pressure on PA and VA, which seem to be closing up a bit.
40-1 in a two horse race. Can anyone remember longer odds being overcome ever? in anything? Politics/Sport/water into wine
I suppose maybe Half-Time, the miracle of istanbul.
[champs league final 2005]?
Obama +12 in KENTUCKY? that can't be right, even for Mason-Dixon.
Obama up 12 in Kentucky?
Yes we can!
wow Frank Schaeffer that was beautiful :)
Loved the story about the woman in the airport, never heard that before.
Nate,
I read somewhere that in 2004 early voters were older Republican- Bush won a majority. Is that true?
If so then is not one unintended (perhaps?)consequence of early voters and long lines that it forces older folks (Obama's weakest group) to stand in long lines which they maybe unwilling or unable to do. Thus potentially suppressing the above 65 turnout?
eric,
If there is one guy I'd love to wite a biography on its Mario Cuomo. Fascinating guy, and I think one of THE great missed Presidents. (Possibly only just below Bobby Kennedy?) Dukakis in some ways was really only Cuomo lite. (Though I also have a lot of respect for Mike Dukakis, a man of true integrity) I like to think Cuomo would have stood up to the Atwater attacks better? Though that might be wishful thinking?
Does anyone else feel that Obama is the first candidate to run completely unapologetically as a Democrat since, well, who knows? I think thats why there is so much excitement and enthusiasm for him.
nevermind - I'm drunk!
ovellys: where my eggs are after 4 vodkas
How many undies to screw in a lightbulb? I don't know, and neither do they. They're still trying to figure out what it is.
[toedishp]
For those still worried about PA: do you see that it moved from 98-2 to 99-1 tonight?
The model hardly thinks it's getting closer.
One$Earned's Brother said...
happy Birthday!!!
Come on out. We won't bite...hard.
:)
GOBAMA!!!
Obama takes daughter Sasha (a "corpse queen") out for Halloween goodness Friday evening in their Chicago neighborhood.
Grows angry at a Polish TV crew that got too close-- "All right guys. That's enough. You've got a shot... Get back on the bus."
Obama +12 in KY? That must be a typo.
That's the lowest the win percentage has ever been!!!
Yeah, is that KY poll reversed? That would be easily the most bizzare polling result of the past week
Kentucky Blue Grass.
Aw. KY numbers reversed is good news. For John McCain.
That's great news for John McCain
Damn. Like those KY numbers but they had to be wrong.
[verblome]
Damn on KY edit
yeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaa booooooooiiiiiiiiiiii!!!
jackie said...
Obama +12 in KENTUCKY?
WTF ??
That Kentucky number has to be backwards. I hope it didn't screw up the model.
KY has got to be wrong!
I wonder how much at 24 point swing in Kentucky will change the win-percentage.
Wtf @ Kentucky poll O_o
According to RCP, Mason-Dixon hasn't polled there since September.
Is this real?
Colorado and Virginia are safe democratic?
Olbermann just referenced Sean's empty McCain office post. Nice work.
Not that I'm not excited or anything, but how is Obama up by +12 in Kentucky?
And something REALLY weird happened to me a minute ago. I refreshed the Yahoo! Political Dashboard and got what I think is their setup for election night. The whole map but Nebraska was blue and they had a popular vote tally and a vote tally for all of the states with the # of precincts reporting. I actually pinched myself because I thought this was yet another one of my election dreams. It didn't say "Projected Winner" under Obama, it said "Winner." It was REALLY WEIRD. I had to remind myself what day it was. When I refreshed the screen, it went back to normal.
Ah, figured that KY had to be flipped. There goes the 97.5%! Oh noes!
[tyler curtain] said:
I agree, Chomsky's one of those guys (like Richard Dawkins and Ralph Nader), who because he knows one subject really well, thinks that he is an expert in every topic.
______________
Chomsky's on a different level to Dawkins.
Chomsky's field is linguistics, in which he's had a much bigger effect than Dawkins has on his field. But he's also highly knowledgeable about lots of political issues, from healthcare to international relations. He;s an ideologue and some of his views are extreme, but he's clearly very well-informed.
Dawkins is a top zoologist/evolutionary theorist, but his understanding of politics is embarrassingly weak, as evidenced by The God Delusion. Rare to read a book whose fundamental premise you agree with entirely, but makes you literally cringe with embarrassment at almost every page.
________________
banties - underwear so provocative it has been outlawed
darÃo said...
Colorado and Virginia are safe democratic?
yes
CO,VA,NM,NV,IA
Mason-Dixon has Obama up by 12% in Kentucky? Could that be an entry error?
Nate, Charlie is going to interrupt you to answer his own questions and talk over your answers. Just be patient, take a deep breath and finish your thoughts.
Rose seems like a nice guy, but he is an awful interviewer, too interested in showing off his own knowledge and ideas.
word verification: flarwors - my favorite movie of 1978
Yeah, KY is backwards, Nate edited to say he's re-running the model. So the win pct. is going to change slightly, I would imagine.
[Grodism - a little known religion based upon the Beethoven films.]
I agree, Chomsky's one of those guys (like Richard Dawkins and Ralph Nader), who because he knows one subject really well, thinks that he is an expert in every topic.
Sour grapes. The intellectual standing of Chomsky and Dawkins is indisputable.
Rose isn't stupid; he came off the way he did in that interview because, like so many Americans, he just can't bear the implications of the facts Chomsky recites.
Ninety
SEVEN
POINT
FIVE!!!
Now that's a Halloween treat.
On another note: Good on Obama for shooing away the press after a few perfunctory snaps of the trick or treating. Whatever else, I think so far they've done an exceedingly good job of shielding their daughters from the worst of the circus.
Nate
538 was just mentioned on Keith Olbermann!
Big deal being on Charlie Rose tonight. Looking forward to seeing you.
@Real Joe said... Obama takes daughter Sasha (a "corpse queen") out for
McCain goes out with Cindy and all the children in the neighborhood start crying at the site of scarey witch. McGrumpy starts shakin' his fist and screaming "See what happens when Socialists teach our kids." Failin' winks and states "You betcha."
WV: conksc - the sound of McCain hitting his head when he thinks about the Palin choice.
"so the photos aren't as exciting (we did get a shot of a girl on the beach with "Miami Beach" on her butt, so there's at least that)."
Can anyone please link me to this photo?
Aw, crap, so while Nate re-runs the numbers, I'm going to keep pounding the Milk Duds, since the trick-or-treaters seem to be scarcer in number this year ...
Come on Nate, fix KY...that can't be possibly right!
Word: SWEPA - Obama is going to swepa McCain on Tuesday
They showed Obama trick or treating with Sasha on CNN and it's SO CUTE!!! Can you imagine some person opening their door and finding Obama there?! Haha :D
crap--the 97.5 may not be. However, it's still gotta tick up from yesterday...*waits with dated breath*
Something that's interesting about Nate's model is that it can take a flipped Kentucky poll like that, and barely move the numbers; KY was still reading as 99% McCain win. The model seems to be rather resistant to such outliers.
That kind of mistake would have made RCP do backflips.
"Aw, crap, so while Nate re-runs the numbers, I'm going to keep pounding the Milk Duds, since the trick-or-treaters seem to be scarcer in number this year ..."
It's not that, but I've noticed the people in my area just walk up and down the block and expect everyone to sit outside their houses and hand them candy.
It's friggin retarded.
I feel like giving them a bag with rocks in it, to make up for their laziness.
Actually...*hastily starts making preparations*
"They showed Obama trick or treating with Sasha on CNN and it's SO CUTE!!! Can you imagine some person opening their door and finding Obama there?! Haha :D"
I'd punch him in the head as hard as I could.
Hopefully cause some brain damage.
It's time for fivethirtyeight to be
mentioned on one of Saturday Night
Live's sketches. Being mentioned on
KO is now common place, Nate and 538
has to grow the brand.
One of the big three broadcast
stations, NBC, CBS or ABC would help
grow the brand for sure.
My 97.5 cents.
Rose seems like a nice guy, but he is an awful interviewer, too interested in showing off his own knowledge and ideas.
Yeah, a nice pompous guy.
Dawkins is a top zoologist/evolutionary theorist, but his understanding of politics is embarrassingly weak, as evidenced by The God Delusion. Rare to read a book whose fundamental premise you agree with entirely, but makes you literally cringe with embarrassment at almost every page.
The God Delusion isn't about politics. Since the book is mostly about the logic of various arguments, you either didn't really "literally cringe with embarrassment at almost every page" (do you even know what the word "literally" means?) or something is very seriously wrong with you and you should seek medical or mental attention.
wv: mangi -- Japanese cartoons about dogs
If you can't wait for Nate's update, take a look a my meta-analysis, which summarizes the electoral vote trends over the last four months.
I would definitely say that the trend looks flat.
I'm taking Obama called by most networks at 9:14PM EST. Won't even need NV. FOX might wait for NV.
Thank you Sarah Palin!
Not to spoil the fun, but my guess is everyone the Obamas are visiting have been prenotified.
You can see the street has been blocked off, there are pedestrian barriers and agents all around.
As most of us know, the girls live full time in Chicago, so they'll have to leave their home and move to DC. At least - unlike for all their lives with his political career - they'll be seeing a lot more of him in the future.
(makede - making out naked)
I'd punch him in the head as hard as I could.
Hopefully cause some brain damage.
Secret Service alert.
Nate, you're such a tease!
1 rogue poll in KY can't change the winning percentage tooo much at all can it? Obama wins KY 1% of the time with the bad number in there. I doubt that any of McCain's 2.5% of the wins don't include him winnning KY?
Nate, you're such a tease...
@CA Hawkeye
Do we need a bulb?
Excellent!
Don't get me started on Chomsky >< Let's just say that his ideas about linguistics are not nearly as universally accepted as some people would have you believe.
A lot of folks think he's smart because his linguistic theories are so obscure and opaque; but that doesn't make them correct. Crucially, they completely omit any consideration of the social functions of language. Worse (but not unrelated), they are also entirely non-empirical in the following sense: Chomsky's "data" consists exclusively of native speakers' metajudgments about sentences they have never heard and which have no context, a type of behavior that has no relationship with ordinary everyday language behavior. Pretty much everything he has to say just evaporates if you look at real language.
Sorry, seeing Chomsky mentioned set me off ;) Yes, he's smart. But he exercises his smarts in a closed system of his own devising which sheds no light on any broader questions. And worse, the social structures adopted by his followers are hierarchical, authoritarian and patriarchal, tendencies you might think based on his political writings he would oppose :/ Chomsky is held to be the only source of the true word within his circle, with a few select (and almost all male) anointed followers allowed to raise questions... but not to pronounce on the answers. He's the Kim Jong Il of intellectuals.
Sorry, know this is off topic ;) Mention of Chomsky just set me off!
Drudge prediction for tomorrow??
Gosh, I hope Palin's widely-publicized complete misunderstanding of the First Amendment doesn't step on the McCain campaign's inspiring message that all the pollsters are wrong about everything.
"I'd punch him in the head as hard as I could.
Hopefully cause some brain damage.
Secret Service alert."
Um...why?
I'm pretty sure obama isn't going to show up at my door, rendering your point moot.
I've got the Tivo set.
Impressive set of polls for Obama in the battleground states. NC looks like it's going to be tough though.
Roulette time!
Over at PPP they are hinting that during the first night of polling the candidates are basically even, and they are suggesting that the following nights Obama might overtake McCain in the polling... Check it out http://www.publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
How many undecideds does it take to change a lightbulb?
They are still deciding whether they want a bulb or a striplight.
Thats for Montana polling of course...sorry
Chomsky is awesome.
Polls don´t vote,
McCain will win if Obama supporters don´t vote.
If you want an Obama win, so go to vote.
The "miami beach" photo is in the second slideshow from the recent 'on the road' post about Florida.
Loving the comments section here as ever. If you want a suggestion for something strange to enjoy in the next couple of years, try following a foreign election (which I am doing here as a brit). The next UK general election should be good and the radical differences to US politics (such as the prime minister choosing when to have the election - imagine that being the case in the US!) should provide enough nerdiness. It won't be as historic or world-changing though (sorry!)
wv: nonam - e.g. "no nam vet is getting elected this time"
(poll closing times map)
You can't vote early in NY...
... but you can vote late!
Chomsky is one of those intellectuals that you sort of have to rake note of because what he says is so different. Doesn't make it right, but it does sometimes make it interesting.
@pensacola
Still clinging to your stupidity?
Go away. We don't need dumb trolls here. (Probably a flyboy with the phony machismo of your earlier post.)
Take your Corvette and drive off a bridge. Then we can get rid of you and start a new reef.
I love that Kentucky (KY) Jelly.
word verification: hawsm - how awesome are Obama's poll numbers!
94.5 hours to go before the first polls close.
99.5 hours before winner is declared (estimate).
dario,
early voted today. now just waiting to see what everyone else does.
(c'mon nate! crunch those numbers!)
Wonder how long it will take Nate to run the numbers. Anyone know the sort of set up he has to run the numbers? Some sort of beast of a computer?
WV: "swepa" - what they'll be calling Obama when he starts 'swep'ing the states on Nov 4th.
jqb
i am with zecha, i cringed on some pages on god delusion, having his other books and being familiar with the philosophical arguments i know a] how beautifully he can write, explaining ideas with simple principles and good anecdotes and b] his approach was too scattergun, and too anecdotal.
It really needed a good edit, especially the ethics section and ovverall it could have leant on the philosophical problems highlighted in religion in a more structured way.
The only thing unknown is how many senate seats the republicans lose and how Grampa and Mooseburger conduct themselves.
I can't wait until the concession speeches of McCain and Palin. I really want to hear them talk about fighting the good fight, how they focused on issues and stayed positive.
That will make it all worthwhile.
Charlie Rose! This makes you more than a numbers nerd. You're officially part of the intellectual elite!
2.5%?!?!? Will that hold after you re-run? Please, let it be!
Chomsky is one of those intellectuals that you sort of have to rake note of because what he says is so different. Doesn't make it right, but it does sometimes make it interesting.
Chomsky has to be taken note of because his claims are all rigorously backed with public documents.
I am posting again, solely because, fittingly as I am a Brit, the word verification is "didshag".
Y'know...I keep thinking that the "undecideds" that are left plain just may not vote. Yeah, I can see as how they could break for McCain, but some have to go 3rd party, not vote, OR vote Obama. Unless every last one of them broke for McCain, I don't think it will help him much.
@flo: The PPP Montana poll includes 3rd party candidates, yes? Or should we be even more excited about the O-M tie?
DarÃo said...
"Polls don´t vote, McCain will win if Obama supporters don´t vote. If you want an Obama win, so go to vote."
Gee, didn't understand that. Thank God we have you to explain this stuff to us. Is this why you think that Obama is going to lose?
I've been lurking for some time, first time poster, yadda yadda. This is pretty much my first time posting ANYWHERE though for what that's worth.
I had a couple of comments:
From the last thread: Mule Rider, you have big balls to be the only(?) right-leaning non-troll on here. My hat is off to you for putting up with the knee-jerk name calling. That first "a liberal is..." post definitely comes off like a straw-man setup, but that follow up was nicely put. A bit of a kum-ba-ya moment, but refreshing nonetheless. Kudos.
I've never seen Olbermann, Hannity or Maddow, but I think O'Reilly is creepy as hell. That talking points memo thing makes it seem like he has a creepy robot co-host. Definitely seems like weak journalism, almost seems Orwellian ("Go ahead, mute the TV, but you can't escape the talking points robot!!") I've seen Charlie Rose a couple of times (go Nate) and what I remember most is wondering whether he just had a boner or actually came in his pants interviewing Maureen Dowd. "Simpering" did not begin to describe that interview. Plus it kinda weirds me out that he apparently tapes his show from inside a black hole. Call me shallow, but I'm curious to see whether Nate comments on that. What is it, Nate? A desk floating in the infinite void? I gotta know.
Lastly, and I know this is from a dozen threads back, but for crying outside it's not "or-uh-GONE" and never has been. Stress is on the FIRST syllable, and IF there are three, it's only just -- that second one is pretty nonexistent. It's basically saying "organ" (as in "internal __") and holding the r for a hair longer than you might. IF that. I pretty much say Oregon/organ exactly the same, and I've lived here for 12 years. It's the same "-gon" as in "wagon", which I KNOW I've never heard as "waa-GONE". The "-GONE" pronunciation is not "also correct" like someone said. It just isn't.
Off my trivial soapbox.. I also have a question. I had more than one, but now I can only think of one (and, again, the least relevant to anything, sorry):
What the hell is a sock puppet anyway? I was under the impression that you couldn't have one without a "puppeteer", a la the Whole Foods CEO a year or two back, who used a fake name to jerk himself off on some organic food blog. Are people implying that the "sock puppets" here are the same thing -- that someone is deliberately logging in and saying stupid shit about McCain to themselves to make righties look lame? Because that seems weird. But, if that's not the case, and there's no "puppeteer," aren't they just regular ol' trolls and not "sock puppets" at all?
Sure looks like things are tightening up. The noose around the McCain / Palin campaign's neck is about as tight as it goes!!!! Good-bye deceivers, hate mongers, and liars!
Barack, Michelle, Bruce, Cleveland, Sunday, HUGE, HUGE open space, gargantuan crowd!!! Most of whom have already voted!!!!
unfriendlyghost
is it fitting because you are russell brand?
verat - great word!
Thanks so much for the poll closing times link! Been looking for that.
Alamala said...
Don't get me started on Chomsky >< Let's just say that his ideas about linguistics are not nearly as universally accepted as some people would have you believe.
A lot of folks think he's smart because his linguistic theories are so obscure and opaque; but that doesn't make them correct. Crucially, they completely omit any consideration of the social functions of language. Worse (but not unrelated), they are also entirely non-empirical in the following sense: Chomsky's "data" consists exclusively of native speakers' metajudgments about sentences they have never heard and which have no context, a type of behavior that has no relationship with ordinary everyday language behavior. Pretty much everything he has to say just evaporates if you look at real language.
Sorry, seeing Chomsky mentioned set me off ;) Yes, he's smart. But he exercises his smarts in a closed system of his own devising which sheds no light on any broader questions. And worse, the social structures adopted by his followers are hierarchical, authoritarian and patriarchal, tendencies you might think based on his political writings he would oppose :/ Chomsky is held to be the only source of the true word within his circle, with a few select (and almost all male) anointed followers allowed to raise questions... but not to pronounce on the answers. He's the Kim Jong Il of intellectuals.
Sorry, know this is off topic ;) Mention of Chomsky just set me off!
That was kinda my point with Chomsky. BTW; I cringed (literally) while reading The God Delusion because his 'logical' arguments were so rife with false equivalencies and other logical fallacies.
I think that both men are intelligent, but both men also have delusions of grandeur regarding their ability to discourse on areas outside of their core competencies.
LIAM
Nate doesn't require a beast of a computer to run his 10K simulations - just some time & I believe he has said he uses an Excel spreadsheet or some run of the mill program
not all that high tech
it is just the raw data & weighting & the other metrics of his model that makes his projections/predictions 'done right' IMHO
Jqb,
You can be a jerk as much as you want, but your talking to a trained historian here. All arguments can be backed up with public documents. (Heck David irving made a good stab at claiming that the Holocaust didn't happen using publicly available documents.)
My advice- be more intellectual rigorous, and don't just show people the love. Have some intellectual independence.
i am with zecha
So you're a fool too, so what? zechalunga said s/he " literally cringe[d] with embarrassment at almost every page" -- did you do that? Notably, neither of you point out any error in the book.
more than 20 Million have already voted
Can I just tell you guys how good it feels to get out there and volunteer for Obama. Wow! 4 more days of work and we're there. Be a part of history, not just a spectator! Volunteer today!!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/statepages
@Jackie
Actually IDK if they are asking for a third party candidate since they havent released the poll yet it's just the first night interviewing, but according to other polls they have released recently I assume they only ask Obama, McCain, or undecided...
jqb -
No, the book wasn't expressly 'about politics', but one of the things that is dreadful about it was how politically naive it is. He understands that God almost certainly doesn't exist, but he doesn't understand people, or human culture, at all.
He also makes mistakes that show a shallowness of knowledge. For example, when he talks about the Northern Ireland he appears to think Republican, Catholic and Nationalist are synonyms (and likewise Loyalist, Protestant and Unionist). He says early on that without religion there'd be no NI conflict, no Arab-Israeli conflict, and no Balkan conflict. That's so facile it's not even false.
He also clearly doesn't understand that you can be a Jewish atheist, that there might be anything within Jewish culture outside the religion of Judaism that people might want to preserve or enjoy.
His secular version of the ten commandments read like a well-meaning but emotionally uncomplex vicar, and show him to have no understanding of the contradictions and difficulties of life.
And as for the bizarre closing 'Burka of Doubt' metaphor...Jesus Christ.
As for the 'arguments' you mention... his analysis of Anselm's ontological argument, a clearly false but logically quite subtle one that took us a long time to refute, is to say "This is a playground argument, so I'm going to respond in playground style: nah nah nah nah nah, I'm not listening". That's not serious. And he cuts and pastes pages of crap gags off the internet. That's not 'argument' either, and is embarrassing.
Those are just the bits I can remember off the top of my head.
i've actually met him once, i did an interview with him. He was very nice, completely different from his public persona, not vituperative at all, more of a nutty professor. he was excellent on evolutionary theory, good on ethics within science, clueless on politics.
But yes, that was a bit of a Joe Biden 'literally' from me back there.
dcm in fl said...Nate doesn't require a beast of a computer to run his 10K simulations - just some time & I believe he has said he uses an Excel spreadsheet or some run of the mill program
not all that high tech
it is just the raw data & weighting & the other metrics of his model that makes his projections/predictions 'done right' IMHO
Agree and you probably hit the
nail on the head!
@Doctor Pion
Nate deliberately made the model lag real events - it would typically take around a week for a bit polling change to be fully evident in the polls. This was to reduce the effect of noise.
He's now tightened the model due to the weight of polling hopefully drowing out the odd outlier.
wv - corksans - "wow, this election is such a corksans!"
Wonder how long it will take Nate to run the numbers. Anyone know the sort of set up he has to run the numbers? Some sort of beast of a computer?
really doesn't need to be much. Probably just his desktop machine frankly.
hehe, These numbers make me giggle. Especially considering that one of my employees told me today that all the poll numbers are wrong, that Obama is going to lose. (This is where you come in Nate, I've gtyed that Obama wins the election and have agreeded to this person that I will eat dirt if he loses...so your model better be right! lol)
Anywho yeah, this person is certain that the poll numbers are wrong, that Obama is a Socialist, (even though he says he is a Democrat) and that Obama won't live through his first term because of some nut job (I will of course be very upset if this happened...my opinions have been expressed to this employee that those comments are not appropriate)
verification: Sadro...no ideas on that one
I have always found Richard Dawkins to be a bit of a self serving smug pseudo intellectual in many ways. In common with most atheists, what he lacks is openmindedness, and yet that seems to be what he is criticisig those of us with faith of not having. Also he creates a false dichotomy between science and religion, or at least feeds that dichotomy.
THE NUMBERS! I MUST HAVE THEM!
MY PRECIOUSSSSSSSSSS....
Just for kicks and while waiting for the poll numbers here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj2VJ7oexKc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdMEn2vXoCM
you can watch chomsky debate a real intellectual giant. Foucault easily makes Chomsky look like a simpleton. As a political/social theoretician/intellectual as whom he poses, he is basically a non starter. His analysis and theory, where he has any, is at best superficial.
With Foucault it is at least possible to meaningfully disagree.
Would you consider changing the yellow highlighted polls to only polls added for the current day? When so many polls are added each day in the most important states, it would be nice to be able to see which ones were added since last we looked at the numbers. We all look at them at least once per day, right!?!
Thanks for all your hard work.
your talking to a trained historian here
An illiterate one, if so.
All arguments can be backed up with public documents. (Heck David irving made a good stab at claiming that the Holocaust didn't happen using publicly available documents.)
Fuck but you're an idiot if you don't understand the difference between what Chomsky does and what Irving does.
My advice- be more intellectual rigorous
Care to explain to me again how Rachel Maddow approaching things from a left POV shows that her sarcasm is biting, moron?
wv: macro -- the economics of the financial meltdown
Did you folks see Charlie Rose interview Brian Schweitzer last year? That guy should probably be President from 2017-2024. Super-impressive
Does anyone else spend their day looking for rss updates for 538, retort, and slate?
Latest Georgia early voting figures:
Votes cast so far - 1,767,139
Votes in 2004 - 3,301,875
Percentage of 2004 votes cast so far - 53.5%
According to those times the race will be called by 9:45 Tuesday night. By then Obama will have at least 286 EV's. Do it yourself, just fill in the states you think Obama will win and you will see what time the race ends. YAYYYYY
I have always found Richard Dawkins to be a bit of a self serving smug pseudo intellectual in many ways.
Who cares what idiots find? What you lack is a counterargument.
The number's "down" to 97.2
Think that's the real one?
VASE
the 'sock puppets' infesting this site are the type who pop up using the same [or very similar] blogger name/handles as another 'known' blogger
the BLOGGER program does not auto block a user from creating an existing name unfortunately, so there can be multiple 'matt' for instance
however, you can ID the posers because their user ID has different unique #'s when you check their properties
so the 'puppets' pop up to amuse themselves by pretending to post outrageous parodies of the originals like PeteKent & Mule Rider
usually they choose the most egrigious blogger names to counter-post with outrageous blather to make the originals look like they have gone insane
in this context, they are not pushing an agenda - it is done for their own amusement & to wreak havoc by provoking those not on to their little puppet show...
usually it serves to drive off the original blogger as they get attacked for the actionsof the puppet
fwiw
"aw crap" LOL! :-D
You are such a cutie, Nate! :->
come on Nate! Post the update please :)
RE: Mario Cuomo. I'm glad I'm not the only one. Yeah Dukakis was Cuomo-lite. My political formative years, Reagan was one side of the coin and Cuomo the other. I agreed with Cuomo about 90% of the time. Good question regarding Presidents that never were, but should've been. Yeah Bobby Kennedy and Mario Cuomo are the first two that come to mind. Conservatives would probably say Jeb Bush and Barry Goldwater, Ha!
markymark said...
I have always found Richard Dawkins to be a bit of a self serving smug pseudo intellectual in many ways. In common with most atheists, what he lacks is openmindedness, and yet that seems to be what he is criticisig those of us with faith of not having. Also he creates a false dichotomy between science and religion, or at least feeds that dichotomy.
Actually, while I agree regarding Dawkins' style of argument, generally (as an atheist - strong agnostic/weak atheist actually, but since most credos don't understand that, I usually just use the term they do); I find most atheist to be more rigorous than those who claim bronze age shepards sitting around imaging the world couldn't be any older than a few generations are a reliable source.
Down to 97.2?!?!??!?
Oh noes! McSurge!
pensacola251 said...
I'd punch him in the head as hard as I could.
Hopefully cause some brain damage.
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jqb
i disagree with you, you throw insults, well done.
i didnt say i disagreed with dawkins, rather i thought it significantly weaker in terms of writing that the selfish gene. Agree again with zech the ontological argument and the constant reference to any old idiot fromt he net made me frequently grimace and put down the book for a couple of mins.
oh and i did say the ethics part in particular - if you want me to give actual lines of a book i read six months ago you might have to wait a while.
Hmmm those KY numbers, they just don't gel!
ah I can see 538 is ROFLAO!
Thank you you've been a wonderful audience mwow mwow!
wv: wokstin;
wokstin: a common nickname for McCain no neck wanky hack Michael Goldfarb, it's McCain's version of turdblossom, as in "Goldfarb you wokstin, you!"
My argument against Chomsky is that he was never controversial until he got his tenure. Now he ridicules anybody he feels is towing he line. It is hypocritical to attack someone for not wanting to be an extremist every day of their life, when he knows full well why they are not being extreme.
jqb,
I wasn't saying that what Chomsky and Irving do are the same. But many different points of view can be reached from looking at the same evidence was my point.
To be honest I tend to think Chomsky gets a bit stuck in his own public image and sometimes what he says fails to hit the mark because he is just trying to be sensationalist rather than intellectually honest, which is fine, many many writers do that, and he has made a good career out of it. But he tends to be a bit of a students favourite, and a media darling, not because his arguments are correct, but because they are so different.
So do people think the 30 minute ad is behind Obama's gain in most of the trackers?
he doesn't understand people, or human culture, at all.
Such an idiotic claim shows how worthless your opinion is.
He also clearly doesn't understand that you can be a Jewish atheist, that there might be anything within Jewish culture outside the religion of Judaism that people might want to preserve or enjoy.
Yeah, right, the fact that Dawkins calls himself a "cultural Christian" notwithstanding.
wv: hershi -- Japanese candy bar
I live in the heart of Indiana, and we are all fighting hard to gotv this weekend! Wish us luck!
@vase
The definition of "sock puppet" has broadened lately. These days, it can mean any kind of misrepresentation of the identity of an author. I gather that this particular subspecies of sock puppet is sometimes called a mock puppet.
["unfer" - To unfairly infer]
I tend to think
To reiterate: what you think is irrelevant.
RE: Georgia,
#1 If 32% of the votes in Georgia are AA (early voting is 35% AA)
...and if Obama wins the group in the 92-6% range (Kerry won them 88-12)
... and if Obama gets about 28% of the White vote (Kerry got 25%)...
...and if Barr gets about 3.5%
...then Obama probably squeaks out Georgia in a very close race.
You can mess with the numbers, if you shift them to Obama he wins, if you shift them to McCain, he wins.
Thankfully, I am not Russell Brand!
Anyone know what to make of this suppposed L.A. Time Bloomberg poll of Floridians who already voted that shows McCain ahead 49-45? No one seems to link to the actual poll.
someperson718:
Obama probably won't be declared the winner before 11pm because at least some of the states he'll eventually win on the east coast and mid-west will be pretty close and won't be able to be called simply on the strength of the exit polls or early returns. They probably won't be called until 80% or 90% of the votes have been counted.
That means we may have to wait for 11pm when California will be called for Obama with it's 55 EVs. That should put him over the top unless Pennsylvania is still very close at that time.
an outlier maybe?
trawlen, what I have been doing while waiting for trick or treaters.
Man Commits Suicide, leaves a note asking Obama to take care of his family.
My argument against Chomsky is that he was never controversial until he got his tenure.
He became controversial when he vocally opposed the VietNam war, moron.
It is hypocritical to attack someone for not wanting to be an extremist every day of their life, when he knows full well why they are not being extreme.
So he's only criticizing untenured intellectuals?
Of all the criticisms of Chomsky, yours are among the most moronic.
That is a sad story.
I remember my other question: What's the deal with only viewing 200 comments? Am I just using the wrong browser? It's annoying to read them in a popup.
Also, Cuomo ftw. I saw him debate Dan Quayle in the mid '90s... that was sweet. I would have sworn that he would have been the first non-white president afterward. Funny.
Not until he got he job secured, secret palin lover
I guess he disdain for the vietnam war coincided with job security lucky for him.
i disagree with you, you throw insults, well done.
Poor baby. Once again, "zech" said s/he "literally" cringed -- one must be a fool to agree with that. Once again, "zech" said s/he did this "almost every page" -- one must be a fool to agree with that. You fools throw all sorts of ridiculous insults at Dawkins without a shred of evidence or argumentation to back them up.
secret palin lover
WTF, cretin?
I guess he disdain for the vietnam war coincided with job security lucky for him.
I guess you're a lying idiot.
My argument against Chomsky is that he was never controversial until he got his tenure.
LOL -- ok, I am not a fan of Chomsky, but this is unfair, whether you are talking about his political or linguistic views :)
I don't have his CV in front of me, and I am not old enough to remember (I was a high-school classmate of one of his daughters, actually :) ), but Chomsky must have gotten tenure in the late fifties. (According to Wikipedia he was appointed full professor in 61, but normally that comes after a stint as associate professor, which is also a tenured position.) He started becoming politically active in the late sixties, along with everybody else.
In any case, MIT (where he teaches) would not have cared about the political positions of a professor of linguistics :) And to the extent that his linguistic theories were radical (they were certainly in direct opposition to at least one paradigm that was widespread when he was starting out), the seeds of those ideas were present in his earliest work afaik.
So yeah, tenure is irrelevant in Chomsky's case. And I don't think he's a cynical or evil guy. Just has a very very narrow view of what language is, and invented and glorified a methodology that renders his theories pretty much non-disconfirmable :/
hey jqb what is with that weird picture of you touching yourself in front of a mountain, strange.
alamala you can ask him about it, he answers his emails, I have.
hey jqb what is with that weird picture of you touching yourself
I was just in the mood to give my incredibly long dick a pull.
in front of a mountain
"a mountain" eh, ignoramus?
Folks, the solution to JQB's uncivil behavior is to stop responding to his posts until he treats other bloggers with respect. Please don't respond to any JQB post which contains insults or other verbal aggression.
Lovely talk, palin lover.
Does anyone know if the rate of early voting in Georgia is way ahead of other states?
Because if Obama wins Georgia it would normally mean he automatically wins the election, but maybe if the rate of early voting is abnormal there it might not mean that, if you get my drift.
Thanks Scott for being the voice of reason, I should just move on.
this is unfair
It must be true; ptag heard it on the McLaughlin Report.
he answers his emails
That he does. On 9/12/2001 he responded to mine from the day before, apologizing for taking so long to get back to me because he was kind of busy with interviews. He sent me an article from some mainstream news mag about blowback, and said that we faced "dark days ahead" from the Bush admin.
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