I apologize if I sound like a broken record. But once again, Obama won the debate according to essentially every objective metric. And recall that, even if the debate were a tie, this would not have helped John McCain; he needed a clear win tonight. Instead, he's continued to dig himself into a deeper electoral hole.
The sense I had tonight was that McCain was overcoached -- that he was trying too hard. I don't think that he made any significant tactical errors. But he came across as nervous and awkward. And he is longer really fighting on a level playing field. In order to win this election, McCain needed to keep the Republican brand at arm's-length. He had largely managed to do that until the Lehman Brothers collapse scared the Hell out of Main Street and reminded everyone of the failures of the status quo. McCain needed to empathize on the economy; his "fundamentals" comment made that very difficult. He needed to find some way to position himself in opposition to Senator Obama on the bailout, but he had boxed himself in with his gambit about suspending his campaign. McCain lost tonight, but the reasons for his failure stem from long before this evening.
10.08.2008
Post-Debate Thoughts, or Lack Thereof
by Nate Silver @ 1:28 AM...see also debates
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"My friends" drove me nuts. It was like he was a used car salesman trying to con me into buying a lemon.
That is probably an accurate analogy.
completely agree
on another note, way to hold your own on colbert, really enjoyed it.
yeah the my friends thing was infuriating
he began to look like a bizarre CGI half human half lizard, circling around like a maniac
wandering around the stage
the whole thing was honestly baffling to me
I was surprised at how unhinged and bad he appeared
One thing I thought was funny is that it seems most of the pundits are being a LOT more careful about giving McCain "the win" before the polls come back and show how out of touch they were.
I think that embarrassed some of them.
What was with McCain's failure to shake Obama's hand after the debate? It was quite awkward although I appreciate Barack Obama not breaking step through it. Also... I remember the McCain campaign making a huge ruckus about Obama's patriotism earlier this year - largely for his failure to wear a flag lapel pin. Obama was wearing one of these tonight, and John McCain wasn't... though I'm certain no real complaints will be raised about the fact that he didn't.
But it's a nasty double standard... if a Republican does it, we assume that they just didn't wear it today. If the Democrat doesn't wear it, it's because he hates America. Really?
This lost him the debate, and by extension probably cost him the election:
"That one"
"Not you!" (to Brokaw on who'd be Treasury Secretary)
"My Hero is Teddy Roosevelt"
"I need a hair transplant"
"Hand on the tilt" (who says words like tilt?!?)
"It's like the days of Hoover" (only you were around back then, dipshit)
Then pointing to his wife when Obama wanted to shake his hand, and leaving the hall immediately after it was over.
Not to mention the folks at RedState who are jumping off the ship like sewer rats off the titanic, which ironically is something their candidate probably remembers.
Game. Match.
I have to agree. I don't think that this was Obama's best night, but the bottom line is that McCain needed a major win and it simply didn't happen for him.
Partly I think this is because both candidates were rigidly on-message and there was little spontaneity. There was almost nothing "new" in this debate, content-wise.
Moreover, McCain's body language was stiff, and in his attempts to stay on camera he often looked as if he was wandering aimlessly. Obama, usually seated comfortably in his chair when not speaking, exuded calm and stability.
As others have so eloquently said before, damn you Nate for making this site do addictive :) It's hard to overstate what a great place this is and how much I (and so many others) appreciate the work and commentary.
Steve
David Gergen on CNN and Jonathan Alter/Tweety on MSNBC bring up the Bradley effect and the Stanford study again. Nate's post on the subject probably needs to be front and center on this website.
For when we have faced down impossible odds, when we've been told we're not ready or that we shouldn't try or that we can't, generations of Americans have responded with a simple creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Go home John McCain.
Neither of them looked good up there. McCain could have scored a knock out, if his moral wasn't so crushed by recent polling.
It was completely fair when he complained that Obama didn't answer a question. He could have done well if he had gone ahead and answered the question after complaining that Obama didn't, instead of dodging.
After all the promises of "taking the gloves off" I wonder what made McCain blink and not go there? Did he expect Obama to make the first move?
I know people thought it was boring, but I didn't mind it.
And hell, if it is just going to be a visual thing Obama swept the floor with McCain.
McCain did come with two economic ideas that were meant to be game changers but fell completely flat: spending freeze (moved from 'considering' to 'proposing' since the last debate) and buying out mortgages. These were meant to make a big splash and show that he had a plan to deal with the current crisis. Neither idea holds a teaspoon of water, but still it is strange that both fell so completely flat that they didn't warrant mention after the debate. Will these become real campaign themes between now and Nov. 4?
McCain is in a tough spot. He does not have a "presidential demeanor" and now, as he strains to define and differentiate himself, he looks and sounds desperate.
jeremy, i think the expression was "hand on the tiller", which i think has something to do with steering a boat.
This was the knockout punch and a reminder that Obama can pwn McCain on what was an average day for Obama. With McCain links to corruption in Keating case coming out, he is not the one to watch over the current financial mess of his "cronies."
The question in the first debate was "is Obama ready", and the answer then was "yes, and so is McCain". Now it's "what a silly question!" Obama didn't necessarily win on content, but his style was so reassuring that he locked down the people already leaning his way, and gained a few more.
Meanwhile, McCain looked grumpy and annoying. That's about as important as "who do you want to have a beer with", but it will cost McCain some votes.
McCain spent half his ammunition and only wounded himself. This election's over.
McCain did float a game changer. His idea to have the federal government buy up all the shitty mortgages and re-sell them at lower rates to the people whose houses have lost value. This is actually something that was done in the Great Depression, and is vaguely authorized in the Rescue Bill enacted into law last week.
But it fell like a lead balloon. To his base it would create yet another new huge federal bureacracy. And nobody else got it because McCain hadn't laid the necessary ground work to make it sound like anything but a soundbite of an idea (which it was). Kinda like suspending his campaign and parachuting (crashing?) into Congress to "save" the Rescue bill.
In other words, neither McCain nor Steve Schmidt can think strategically. Once again it was all tactics.
As for the cool hand on the tiller, I'm not sure that is a good idea when the head behind the cool hand is so hot.
Listening on the radio, McCain sounded anxious and a bit out of breath during the first quarter to third of the debate. Did that come across on TV?
Awesome analysis and insights once again. 538 has the best slugging and on-base percentages in the polling league, and we (if not the Cubbies and ChiSox) continue to move up in the playoffs. Never mind the balky questions by Tom Brokaw. Go Nate, Go Sean, and thanx.
kth: I stand corrected, thx :-)
I don't even know what a tiller is...and I doubt anyone my age (20's) who wasn't in a navy or a pirate would either.
The "town hall" format of tonight's debate was supposed to give McCain an advantage. But I think this bit of conventional wisdom came from McCain's performance in campaign event "town hall" formats. McCain's rhetoric tonight seemed to me persuasive if the audience was faithfully Republican, but not so persuasive if one was an undecided or independent voter.
My educated guess is that McCain did not do enough to tailor his rhetoric to the audience, but instead delivered basically the kind of talking points one would give at a partisan "town hall" event. The McCain campaign confused McCain's skills in campaign-event town halls with his skills in debate town halls.
The strangest thing about this debate (or most amusing, I guess) was McCain's wandering around the stage. I couldn't tell if he was lost, or had to pee, or what.
Also, if the commenter from Knoxville is still reading, just wanted to say I visited your city earlier this summer and it was very nice. :) So I can confirm that not all of TN is as horrible as Sean experienced!
Nate: You were great on Colbert. Chorizo? hmm. The analogy is lost on this vegetarian.
McCain's "That One" comment seems to have made an impact. It really showed McCain's distain.
That One is the one to lead. That One is the one to inspire.
That One is the one to set energy independence goals. That One is the one who has a plan for universal healthcare. That One is the one who will get us out of the Iraq occupation. That One embodies multi-culturalism and diversity. That One is the One that gets my vote.
I think The Obama Campaign should make an ad that talks about how John McCain likes to joke around about the issues while the economy is collapsing across the US and the world. Just show clips on Sen. McCain's jokes at the debate to show that he is not serious about the issues. Simple and effective in my opinion.
I think someone should make a tshirt with the words, "I'm voting for "that One"!"
:D
2nd Debate: Live Analysis
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
Obama 349, McCain 189
Oct 7 Polling Update
Yes, McCain is increasingly looking like a less likeable Gob. "C'mon! That one!"
A town hall debate that isn't really a town hall debate? Worst possible format for McCain. He really looked old tonight when moving around, especially with Obama looking so relaxed and confident.
I actually thought Obama did very well tonight, considerably better than the first debate. The questions were almost identical to what we saw in the first debate, but Barack delivered his answers more eloquently and seemed in touch with the average American.
He also managed to change the debate and get his rebuttal in using a manner that was confident, not rude. Then he used that moment to deliver the Bomb Bomb Iran jab. Perfect. Hard to imagine Kerry or Dukakis having the guts to step up and defend themselves in that manner.
This is the last of three posts on this. I try to post them early in the comments section of a topic that will be widely read.
I am Jewish (for that miniscule number who care my posting name is a tri-lingual pun on my Hebrew name) and we are in the High Holy Days. The tenth day of that season is Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, by which date we are supposed to have atoned for our sins. But it is written, “For the sins of man against God, Yom Kippur atones, but for the sins of man against man, Yom Kippur does not atone.” I am obligated to seek forgiveness from those I might have harmed or offended. I know that I have sometimes the internet equivalent of an overly sharp tongue, and that when I am tired or stressed I tend to go overboard in my comments. If there are any out there whom I have offended, I ask your forgiveness.
Jewish law requires that if forgiveness is not granted I must ask three times. After than, I have fulfilled my obligation. This is why this was posted three times.
Shalom y'all
I can already see the SNL skit with McCain wandering around and in front of the camera the whole time...
join my facebook group :)
Now that my shameless self-promotion is out of the way...
I watched the debate with my mom and it was interesting to see her thoughts. This is her first time watching a debate this political season, and she is an independent.
She was leaning towards Obama and the debate solidified her on that decision. She kept saying she hated listening to McCain, and having to hear him for four years would drive her bonkers.
From my own views: My friends got old 5 minutes into the debate. I bet there are many sloshed collegians out there at this moment.
McCain's very apparent hostility was a huge bust. He did fine debate-wise even though I disagree with him tremendously, but what people saw and will remember tomorrow from this is a cranky old man who needed a potty break. And his alienation of his own base with this mortgage buying talk is going to cut him down even farther.
I'm breaking my comment into two so it is easier to read, or something of that nature.
I live in a very, very red part of a very, very blue state. Half the people I know are evangelical, religious right extremists. I have not spoken with one conservative who is not apathetic about this election. On the other hand, democrats are riled up and ready to go.
I think it is possible, come election day, that we are going to see a decline in republican voter turnout. Yes, some of these people tend to be the most faithful voters, but they don't even like their own candidate, much less ours.
I can see Obama winning, in addition to all states considered tossups, MT, ND, WV, GA, LA, MS, and maybe even TX.
I may be getting ahead of myself, yes, but in addition to the lack of McCain enthusiasm, as a voter under age 30, I think that we are severely unaccounted for in polls, and I think there will be some surprises come 11/4.
howdy guys:
Instant Polls Find Obama Won Debate
CNN poll of debate viewers:
Obama 54%, McCain 30%
CBS poll of uncommitted voters: Obama 39%, McCain 27%
***********
I didn't watch the debate,sorry,here in Italy was night.
For sure I'll do it whitin today.
but for now looks like Obama did pretty well.
So it's ok.
Just a question for you:
At least,did McCain watched Obama in the face this time ????
Because,you know,is not quite polite not pay attention to the next US president !!!
@STepper
The chatter at Redstate and such like is absolutely livid at McCain for this proposal, the knives have come out and McCain is not long for the world (so to speak politically)
Hey Nate,
Good job on the Colbert Report. It was funny that you did not know if she should get up or stay seated when Colbert got up. :)
Anyway, I think we should have a way to reply to posters her directly.
@matador,
eh, they where roaming over the stage, McCain kind of looked lost, and there was definitely a fair bit of animosity on his part. Some people are blathering on about McCain refusing to shake Obama's hand in the post debate walk around, but it is quite possible he just didn't notice the outstretched hand, so I dunno.
Blogger Matthew Frederick said...
The "town hall" format of tonight's debate was supposed to give McCain an advantage. But I think this bit of conventional wisdom came from McCain's performance in campaign event "town hall" formats. McCain's rhetoric tonight seemed to me persuasive if the audience was faithfully Republican, but not so persuasive if one was an undecided or independent voter.
My educated guess is that McCain did not do enough to tailor his rhetoric to the audience, but instead delivered basically the kind of talking points one would give at a partisan "town hall" event. The McCain campaign confused McCain's skills in campaign-event town halls with his skills in debate town halls.
Not to use an internet cliche but...
THIS.
As Stepper said, McCain floated an idea about buying up mortgages. Lots of problems with it. 1. Republicans hate more govt spending.
2. Buying the MBS pools of mortgages is already in the 700 billion plan.
3. McCain's idea of buying individual ones is stupid and impossible since the mortgages have already been sliced and diced into mortgage backed securities so you can't buy back a whole mortgage loan anymore. (like trying to buy back an ear of corn if it's already been sold in 15 different cans of kernel corn mixed with other kernels)
4. and FINALLY he got himself all screwed up trying to 'splain in. Most likely because he doesn't have one friggin' clue as to what he's talking about. His words came out all Palinese since he appeared to have been trying to remember mortgage words from the green room. Shit, he doesn't even know how many houses he has - how's he supposed to understand those tricky mortgage terms?
Watching him tonight made me think of the scene of that old man in the movie Moonstruck when Olympia Dukakis says to him:,"Old man, you give those dogs another piece of my food and I'm gonna kick you 'til you're dead!"
Has anyone else commented on the fact that McCain looked like A LITTLE OLD MAN as he wandered haphazardly around the stage? His legs were shaky, he took small, mincing steps, and his entire demeanor was that of a seriously senior Senior Citizen. (I'm a geezer of 66 myself, so I feel perfectly equipped to comment on this.) Maybe if this registers even subconsciously with the millions of people of watched, I think that this has cost him both the debate and any possible chance at the presidency.
i really dont understand the mccain campaign. McCain needed a big moment of presidentialism he needed to dominate obama and leave him in the dust. the format though left him too reactionary. He should have just asked obama to blow it off and make it a real town hall. that would have been a real unpredictable and crazy moment where mccain could get some positive traction. the more sedate and steady the forum and the campaign the less chance mccain has of gaining any ground. he pretty much wasted tonight.
I think it odd that McCains left the hall almost immediately after the debate, whereas the Obamas stayed and enjoyed themselves with the audience: taking photos with the people, signing autographs, chatting with as many people as seemed interested in chatting with them. This creates a stark contrast between the real 'elites' (the McCains), and the people *of* the people: the Obamas.
The ROI map and tipping point states map seem to gradually be gaining color; while there were maybe 20 states notably shaded a few weeks ago, now there are around 45; everything but UT, OK, AL, DC, and VT. Is this intentional? Did I miss the post where you adjusted the color scheme?
McCain basically hammered the last nail in his coffin when he said that health care is a responsibility vs Obama saying it's a right.
Someone works fast, check this out.
http://www.thatone08.com/
Saving Hawaii said...
What was with McCain's failure to shake Obama's hand after the debate?
Jeremy said...
Then pointing to his wife when Obama wanted to shake his hand,
**********
ah...so this time get worse.
no "join together as a nation".
looks like McCain is an angry sore loser.
let's look forward.
btw:
wish I could shake Obama's hand.
this man is a gift.
keep fighting guys,it's not over yet.
bye.
Keith:
Not to use an internet cliche but...
THIS.
huh?
Any politician should be looking to shake hands with his opponent after a debate. It's second nature.
@ David Brown:
Ya, McCain did sound a bit, well, yearning in the first part of the debate. He seemed like he was *straining* with *all* his *words* to make it sound so *meaningful*.
I think they both were okay, generally. Obama didn't look so hot trying to respond to McCain past time, and then not seeming like he said all that much when he did. McCain said one or two off things and generally was just luke warm anyway.
This debate will change nothing.
I just find it odd that it took the democratic equivalent of a new terrorist strike to make things shift this way. That's really all that's happened. Before that they were 50-50. Barring any actual terrorist strikes, looks like Obama's your man.
I find it incredibly ironic that it was McCain that brought up the steady^h^h^h^h^h^h "cool hand on the tiller" concept. I mean, this is McCain we're talking about here!
Great job, Nate and Sean. I, like many others, appreciate your commentary and analysis. And those photos Brett's been taking are amazing!
I believe a knockdown (though not a 'knockout'), was when Obama pushed to respond to McCain on a question that was not part of the agreed-to rules. Obama got Brokaw to relent, and began laying out some solid talking points to the crowd. Then he quickly moved into the 'Green Behind The Ears' moment about 'risk', stating McCain may want you to believe he's somber and steady....
This is where McCain walked RIGHT into a complete sucker-punch. He interrupted Obama with a giggling 'Thank you, thank you very much,' which in itself fell flat. This was immediately followed by a snicker, shoulder bounce, and a proud glance around the room. However, Obama stayed right in stride and unleashed a gut-wrenching flurry of 'Bomb Bomb Iran', 'Obliterate North Korea', 'Next Stop: Baghdad'. The smug smile instantly fell off McCain's face...replaced by a sickened look of 'Oh shit!' He stopped in his forward tracks, took every blow from Obama's assault, slowly backed up, and gave a look of complete defeat. They didn't even need a split-screen, for the camera-man did a perfect job of showing Obama's attack and McCain's reaction all in one shot.
I think that moment was one where McCain realized he just screwed up big time. And one I won't soon forget.
Already a "That One t-shirt available at cafepress.com That was pretty quick! Obama: good answers with the right amount of detail on healthcare (esp. unscripted comment about mother), economic priorities, and Pakistan. McCain: odd ideas and Palinesque no-answer rambling. He can't detail his policies because: 1. they keep changing, 2. the ones that don't change are so bad and so not what people want to hear it would be even worse for him if he made them clearer.
Many comments about "...barring a terrorist attack, etc..." Obama will be the next president.
I think the last month of debates and campaigning has even changed that. I don't see people going to That Old Guy who is more erratic than a dog in heat to get us through that type of catastrophe. Many of the internals of polls now show Obama equal to or better on national security. And after tonight, his internals on that will look even stronger. The man wandering around the stage? nope.
For someone who begged to debate in a "town hall" setting, Senator McCain just got schooled in strongest venue. Obama is Presidential, McCain appeared frantic, nervous, and sans solution. I posted an article on my blog that talks about McCain peering into the audience at Cindy or the strategist sitting next to her for help perhaps? They were definitely communicating and it was captured on camera. www.scottschalk.com
As much fun as triumphalism is, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
As a wise old organizer once said: "polls don't mean shit kids, get back to work."
I feel like it was a given that Obama would win the post-debate polls; Obama partisans will of course naturally be more likely to give Obama the win, and vice versa. And since Obama's currently leading (by a lot) in the polls, and is certainly more charismatic...
I'd suggest waiting for the (actual) polls to come out before declaring a winner one way or the other. I'd feel comfortable saying it probably wasn't a game-changer though.
edgeways said...
@matador,
eh, they where roaming over the stage, McCain kind of looked lost, and there was definitely a fair bit of animosity on his part. Some people are blathering on about McCain refusing to shake Obama's hand in the post debate walk around, but it is quite possible he just didn't notice the outstretched hand, so I dunno.
October 8, 2008 1:05 AM
*************
thanks you for cast your opinion,I appreciate it,but listen:
I meet people every day because my job.
I NEVER forget to shake their hand in the end.
Is something you MUST have inside.
And I am just a regular jackass,never run for the presidency.
go figure...
bye.
Zenu said: I can see Obama winning, in addition to all states considered tossups, MT, ND, WV, GA, LA, MS, and maybe even TX.
======
Texas is really not in play, as nice as it would be for that to be true. No matter how bad McCain looks, he's still +10 at least in every poll.
There's a political saying involving "a dead girl or a live boy," and that's what it would take for McCain to lose Texas.
About the economic game changer McCain proposed:
It was the first question of the evening: how to turn the economy around and help those ensnared in the housing crisis. And in John McCain's first answer, he bragged about a bold new proposal he would implement as president -- that Obama already fought for in the recently passed bailout bill.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/in-debate-mccain-touted-m_n_132828.html
It appears McCain might have stole the idea.
There's lots of good stuff in this debate, no need to talk about this handshake thing. They shook hands right after the debate ended. Later, McCain was trying to introduce his wife to Obama, Obama put his hand out without seeing where she was, and they took a second to connect. It wasn't a snub. Andrew Sullivan covers this completely.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/the-insta-polls.html#more
A couple months ago I was ecstatic about this election. It was down to Clinton, Obama, and McCain. For the first time in my memory, an election were I didn't hate any of the candidates!
I wanted Clinton though, and was feeling very let down when she didn't get the nomination. I was still probably going to vote Obama, but I wasn't exactly enthusiastic.
What really fired me up was McCain picking Palin. I hated her and wanted her nowhere near the presidency. So, now I was firmly on Obama's side. But more because I couldn't stand Palin on the ticket then anything else.
After watching the debates, Obama has one me over. I think he will make a fantastic president, rather than just being better than the other guy. I believe.
And McCain, well I think he be a better president than W., but that's not saying too much. I actually think he'd do a decent job as president. But given the choice between decent and fantastic, fantastic wins.
I found the "town hall" setting too canned to be interesting. We know all the questions are screened, so who cares? There is no spontaneity, which is what I would want from a "town hall".
Also, at least when I was watching, I found myself staring at the candidate's backs too much, esp. McCain's.
Nate: saw you on Colbert. Think that you should mention that it's "fivethirtyeight.com" and not "538.com". You've probably sent a ton of traffic to the wrong website.
For Jeremy:
The President is often referred to as the "captain" of the "Ship of State". As anyone who has sailed in small boats (even those 20 or younger) knows, the tiller controls the rudder, which determines the boat's heading (direction). Don't forget that McCain was a naval officer, even if he was a flyboy.
Good take on things. I think he was over coached as well. He came across as kind of creepy.
Debate Reaction: Onside Kick Goes Out of Bounds
I don't think that Obama's counterpunch w/r/t the difference between speaking softly and "bomb bomb Iran" was for the moderates and republicans. It seemed like a shout out to the liberal base.
Yah, I was screaming incoherently at the screen, but did that bit do more than calm his supporters?
@matador about not shaking Obama's hand. Actually, I'm not so sure this was what it may have appeared to be -- if you take a moment to review the tape of it.
If you watch the whole thing again at the end, they do shake hands before Brokaw asks them to move away so he can read his teleprompter. So shaking his hand again would be somewhat odd (although for picture posing politicians do it repeatedly I realize). But that moment wasn't for pictures and if you watch closely directly before McCain didn't shake his hand you will see he had tapped Obama on the back to make him aware his wife was there. He was trying to get Obama's attention so it wouldn't make sense that he tapped him on the back just to ignore him.
We have to acknowledge that they are 2 of only 100 senators in that Select Club and IMHO, this was not a disdain moment that Blitzer pontificated about.
@David,
lol. I just read your comment after I posted mine. We saw the same thing.
Is it just me, or is McCain starting to sound more and more like W with his snickering? Almost like Beavis & Butthead...
I hate to seem ageist, but I really think McShame's running around stage, failure to shake Obama's had afterward, and running off, was because he had to pee like a horse! He's old and his prostate was probably sitting on his bladder like a dump truck! Poor old grandpa; I think it's time for 'The home'.
In my short years and as long as I have seen the Presidential Debates, I have never seen such finger-pointing and practically "name-calling" of what are supposed to be the next leaders of our country. Come on guys, what are you in third grade or are you actually planning on leading the Free World. I am not a fan of McCain or Obama, but if this is what we are left with then i vote for an Independant. I am sad for 2009 and the next thirty years to come. Please, prove me wrong, presidential hopefuls!!
Forget the debate people. The Nikkei closed down 10% today. Tomorrow is looking like a market disaster.
McCain seemed tired and stiff, and spoke mostly in generalities. He overused 'my friends' so much it was downright irritating.
I thought Obama dominated in style and substance without even trying very hard.
Interesting how neither of them had much regard for the time limits. Seems like they can both easily talk non-stop.
mc9cain said...
@matador about not shaking Obama's hand. Actually, I'm not so sure this was what it may have appeared to be -- if you take a moment to review the tape of it.
*************
OK.thanks.
Got it.
I definitively have to watch the tape.
good night.
:)
I thought it was clear that Obama came out of this debate looking somewhat stronger and more assuring. McCain really gained nothing from the debate, though his performance was slightly better than it was at the premier debate. I look forward to the final debate, and while it won't be much of a game changer, expect Obama to continue the trend of out-performing McCain both in mannerisms and style, but also in terms of connecting with voters and appealing to the public.
What I find interesting is that McCain continues to perpetuate the falsehood that Obama's tax plan to raise taxes on those who make more than $250,000 a year would impact small businesses. Every report I've read estimates that only 1.4% of small businesses that report on individual income statements (mostly due to being sole proprietorships or farms) earn an income of over $250,000 annually. Therefore, over 98% of small businesses would not receive a tax increase. With the other incentives Obama has suggested in terms of his energy policy and windfall profits taxes, mandating healthcare but making it affordable for both employers and employees, and wanting to lower taxes on the bottom 60% almost three times more than McCain, this should be a no-brainer for both people who make less than $250,000 per year (for Obama) or making more than $250,000 a year (for McCain, unless you're interested in the overall good of society).
Of course, this is just the economy. On foreign policy, Obama's stance of being more open to meeting with leaders from enemy nations has resonated with voters, while McCain's attacks against Obama almost always result in voters being turned off. While watching CNN's coverage of the presidential debate, uncommitted voters from my state of Ohio responded negatively to McCain's constant attacks of Obama's willingness to meet without "preconditions" and bitter arguing over the semantics of that word. Meanwhile, women particularly responded well to Obama's strategy of diplomacy. Overall, a pretty good night for Obama, an average one for McCain, and just greater reinforcement that Obama is the more popular and more sound choice for President based on these debates and the proposals put forth by both candidates.
Thanks to everybody involved in 538. I really love this site's analysis of the election and feel it is probably the best on the web.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Xm1XErUvXo
Game over man, game over!
go to cafepress.com to get a t-shirt that says
I'm voting for THAT ONE! (something like that anyway). They were spot on with getting that out so fast.
my overall impression is that "that one" has a strategy and is diligently performing it while McCain is hoping for an ever less likely surprise. Only he just doesn' have the logistics and the organization to deliver this.
Obama's looks like an army. Ground game, voter registration, donations, debates, firing up... all fitting into place at the right moment. Basically McCain's campaign is disaster.
He should no stop pouring hatred into his followers for the good of the country. Country First. He is now the true agent of intolerance.
He is playing a game which is not his own.
my overall impression is that "that one" has a strategy and is diligently performing it while McCain is hoping for an ever less likely surprise. Only he just doesn' have the logistics and the organization to deliver this.
Obama's looks like an army. Ground game, voter registration, donations, debates, firing up... all fitting into place at the right moment. Basically McCain's campaign is disaster.
He should no stop pouring hatred into his followers for the good of the country. Country First. He is now the true agent of intolerance.
He is playing a game which is not his own.
Nate, excellent job on the Colbert Report -- you're getting better. =)
As for McCain ... wow. He really did look like an angry old man telling "that one" to get off his lawn.
Speaking of lawns, the gross height disparity between the candidates and McCain's general stiffness finally made led me to an epiphany: McCain is grumpy because he lost his lucky red hat.
Srsly. He's become Bob Dole, sans the stature. It's only a matter of time before he's doing Viagra commercials.
Oh, and for anyone keeping track: He said "my friends" 19 times according to the transcript. I am soooooooo happy I decided against having that debate-watch drinking game.
=)
Nate,
Great job on Colbert.
I'm investing in jet packs! They have a better outlook than my 401K.
I think one of the key problems tonight for McCain (well, apart from all of the obvious ones) was the chairs...
I'm short and similarly 'barstool-challenged'. Believe me, it is very, VERY difficult to sit upwards onto a chair without looking incredibly clumsy. And then, if somehow you do manage to struggle up onto the chair, you're left looking very stupid with your little legs dangling like a small child's.
If you watch McCain he leaned against his chair all evening and I think that explains some of his pacing about behind Obama's back and his general tetchiness when he realised that he couldn't properly relax even when the focus wasn't on him. And I bet his 72 year old legs were killing him by the end.
I almost nearly ended up feeling sorry for the guy...
How long before Texas flips blue?
I say two weeks. Thoughts?
.. but then I remembered Sarah Palin...
Huh?
Matthew Frederick, on the popular Internet forum "Fark" (www.fark.com), when someone (in this case, Keith) blockquotes your post and then adds "THIS", they are agreeing with you. Dunno how widely known this practice is outside Fark.
A comment from an interested NZer (just one of many, actually).
McCain's descent has had something of a Shakespearean quality about it, and that comment of markedman's at 12.38am about McCain wandering the stage "unhinged and bad" brought to mind Lear... after he started down the path of madness.
McCain started his presidential campaign dominant (on his side anyway). A couple of bad decisions, then fate dealt a cruel blow (okay, the Republicans are largely the architects of their own misfortune, but stay with me), and now he finds himself humiliated in public by his nemesis. Shakespearean, I say.
These stupid attacks that Palin and McCain are sure to continue tomorrow are going to fall on deaf ears after what's going on in the markets now. Japan's Nikkei was down 10%. Russia's market was down 14%. Paris opened down 3.4% immediately and London's was down 2.4% immediately upon opening. This is going to be a dark October.
The new Zogby tracking poll has Obama only up 1.9%.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575
Not that it means much.
Anyone know where Palin's next KKK rally will be held?
Is there such a thing as a bandwagon effect? Everyone feels McCain losing. Does he take Texas?
Some people think McCain's referring to Obama as "That One" was a sign of rudenss and/or disdain. I disagree. There is a far simpler explanation. McCain had a senior moment and forgot Obama's name. :-)
(Of course when the "senior moment" last for quite a while, it's senility.)
to be fair, I thought McCain ended with a strong, confident tone; Obama's insights into Russia were his weakest of the night (clearly), and I felt his response to the last question was Palinesque (though apparently the polls disagree w/ me). even so, he dominated the first half in style & substance, and remained composed when losing grip of the content in the last third of the debate.
I would have been more pleased to hear new critiques of McCain--not sure why he hasn't modified his attack in terms of the economy (at least use fresh diction). The health care segment proved the only interesting addition to these debates.
John,
here is from zogby:
"The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%."
Given his findings here are the possibilities of his panel make up:
1 more reps than dems
2 no more than 5% of indipendents
3 a mix of 1 and 2
his assumption are perfectly in line with those of other pollsters, his breakup of indipendents is even more pro-Obama than Gallup's. I remember that just a few days before his tracker started Zogby gave an interview (NYT ?) in which he stated that "the horserace was far from over". This BEFORE his data collection was done.
So here is what I think is going on at Zogby's:
Zogby needed data to support his interview
In the next days his tracker will allign to other ones
He will say the turning point is NOW and not previous
He will come out as having done the right prediction
and here is his article:
http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=18379
anyway it goes HE NAILS IT
Watched the Colbert Interview, great job. What was in your gift bag? Was it soap? It's always soap.
Also, since I've been lurking around here for awhile without having said so up to this point, now seems like a good time for me to say how awesome this site is. Keep up the good work.
Reader:
Thanks! Apparently, I am not aware of all internet traditions!
Regarding the "that one" comment, I was already "in the tank" for Obama, but I must point out for those who don't think that this dismissive off handed comment meant nothing in the context of the debate...I'd like to point out that "That One" is suspiciously close (at least in my mind) to "Those People"....nowhere to run to McCain, nowhere to hide.
Nate, the purple tie looked great and your use of it in response to Colbert's question was delightfully funny! I enjoyed watching you on the Colbert Report, as did my husband.
Brett, your photos are stunning. Alas, the Obama campaign has all of our expendable income.
Sean, sorry you had such a miserable experience in TN!
Debate - I am an enthusiastic Obama supporter. I am so totally biased.
Matthew, I'm not aware of all internet traditions, either. Thank you for asking the question.
Shanadee,
I personally think McCain has a lot of "Those People" snippets throughout his campaign town halls. Sometimes I'm surprised he didn't blurt out "unwashed masses".
I like the "That One" campaign button. I'd wear one proudly.
Went off to a meeting tonight (had to miss the debate). But I've watched big chunks and looked at the reactions.
I think we'll see a few more states shifting red-pink-light blue (or at least flirting white). Maybe even Texas--it'll depend on the next couple weeks. But that debate hurt McCain.
And, poor bastard, there's another one coming.
Was anyone else annoyed that McCain said his extra tax breaks for children would help EVERY American?
The childfree, childless, empty nesters, and other Americans without dependent children would disagree on that point...
nate nice job on colbert, he can be a little weird sometimes but your responses on why your math is the one totally disarmed him, i have a question what time do they record?
i've been curious as sometimes they miss some funny stuff that could easily be added.
the one!!!!
http://davidfromsandiego.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/that-one/
I was waiting waiting for something to happen from Walnuts as I tossed and turned at 4 am here in Paris. Couldn't sleep and it seemed neither could John McCain. Talk about keeping his hand on the tiller, this guy is rudderless and barely made sense, his "my friends" verbal tic stuttering out of him like an uncontrollable cough. Insincere and worse, unconnected. Bad jokes (hair transplant), and poor demeanor. Why Gov Palin's name did not come up is puzzling; she is clearly the most pregnant of McCain's poor examples of judgement we've seen.
Besides that, some campaign posters are here:
http://homepage.mac.com/mistahcoughdrop/
Thanks to 538, we all appreciate the site.
MR/PARIS, FRANCE
I watched the debate on CNN here in France.
CNN's rolling focus group graph showed Obama consistently scoring better than McCain, particularly among women. On numerous occasions his remarks got maximum approval. I didn't see McCain get more than one max score.
That said, among men, the disparity wasn't as marked.
Another day & still no game changer for McCain.
Expect the polls to tick up another point for Obama on the strength of this debate.
Obama. It's time to start pushing for down ticket democrats. In particular Alaska. Get ride of the vile Stevens.
One debate down, one more to go. As long as the undecided break at least evenly (and they went 15-15 with 70% still undecided) Obama should not face any trouble. Plus it seems that in the end more of the undecided will break for Obama since they grade him being better in the economy and debate performance.
"That one" seems in good shape... presidential shape!
Roone said...
Is there such a thing as a bandwagon effect? Everyone feels McCain losing. Does he take Texas?
Yes, there is such a thing as a bandwagon effect, but it really comes from several different sources:
(1) Viral Effect: As one side's share of voters gets larger and larger, a greater portion of all voter-voter interactions include that side's voters. This increases information transmission, reducing the likelihood that any voter is completely isolated from that side's message.
This is actually a somewhat counter-intuitive effect, but it's really fascinating when you think about it. Imagine that there is an electorate of 100 voters, split 60(R)-40(D). Of all possible voter-voter dyads, there are 1,770 R-R, 780 D-D, and 2,400 "mixed dyads" with one D & one R. Put another way, 3,180 out of 4,950 dyads (64%) include at least one D, and D-D dyads take up 15.8% of the total.
Now, let's boost D's share up to 55(R)-45(D). In this case, you get 1,485 R-R, 990 D-D, and 2,475 mixed -- Ds are now in 3,465 out of 4,950 dyads (70%), and D-D dyads now take up 20% of the total.
See that? Even though support only increased from 40 to 45 overall (+12.5%), the odds of "friendly contact" between two D's has jumped by +20%. If this kind of reinforcement is important to civil society (and it is), then even a relatively small jump can theoretically begin to snowball.
(2) Lack of Strategic Voting: Most voters vote strategically, choosing between the two major candidates even if they might prefer a third-party candidate. As the outcome becomes more "inevitable," the value of strategic voting goes down, so such a discouraged voter is more likely to vote their true preference.
(3) Discouraged Voters: In addition to the above, as one's preferred candidate looks increasingly unlikely to win nationally, voters are more likely to slip back into apathy and avoid voting at all (even if their state's contest is still close).
Since your likelihood of actually being the deciding vote in a statewide election is ridiculously small, you're really taking the time to vote largely for the inherent value of the act itself (e.g. you feel good about yourself, feel like you're a part of something, etc.). When your side seems to be losing terribly, that inherent value begins to drop off rapidly -- no one particularly wants to feel like they're a part of a crushing defeat.
(4) "True" Bandwagoning: On top of all that, there is a natural inclination to want to be on the winning side, if for no other reason than to avoid ostracism by one's peers.
Put all that together, and yes, it becomes plausible (if not particularly likely) that a massive wave could actually flip Texas.
This is all a pretty even mix of rational choice theory and my own unfounded conjecture and speculation, so your mileage may vary. =)
Hey Games:
Where's YOUR website? I'm already a fan.
If ANY Democrats out there get a call from the supposed Democratic Party that tells you to vote on November 11th instead of the 4th, try and get them to tell you where they are calling from and their number off caller ID, report it to your local Democratic Party Campaign Headquarters. This and other calls (telling people wrong polling places) have been happening all over my state! A lot of them are Robo-calls coming from somewhere in the south. Don't be fooled!
By the 15 minute mark it was obvious that McCain was way out of his league; he lectured a questioner on "you didn't even know of Fannie & Freddie until 2 weeks ago"; he kept using that bs "my friends" which keeps him stuck in the 1950s; and he used some colloquialisms that haven't been used by anyone under 60.
But it's the "my friends" that just won't go away.
TX could go blue, but I don't think it is a priority.
The only reason to target it is for down ticket pickups. Of those, by far the most important would be the Senate seat Noriega is fighting for.
Nate doesn't really give Noriega a fighting chance. More importantly, Texas is huge. Making an real change would be expensive.
It would be a lot more fun to target GA,MS,MN ect.
Mississippi could just go Blue. The polls say otherwise but the Blacks are fired up. A lot of white women might vote contrary to their menfolk. Then again some of the more thoughtfull rednecks might have trouble choosing between their racism & their jobs & just sit it out. It is ripe for a reverse bradley effect.
McCain's mixed metaphor, "cool hand on the tiller" echoes Thomas E. Dewey's 1948 slogan, "a rudder on the ship of state, a firm hand on the tiller." It sure worked well for Dewey. As for "Cool Hand," is he trying to channel Paul Newman. "I can eat 50 eggs!" What we have here is a failure to communicate.
Senator McCain likened himself to a "cool hand on the tiller." Traditionally, the analogy is instead to a "steady hand on the tiller," or "firm hand." A tiller is a simple device to steer a non-motorized sail- or oar-powered vessel. Unlike a wheel, which steers a vessel indirectly, a tiller had direct entry in the water, and a commensurately immediate effect on the vessel's course, and stability. Thus the need for a steady hand on it.
However, Senator McCain did not appear to be particularly steady.
Senator McCain likened himself to a "cool hand on the tiller." Traditionally, the analogy is instead to a "steady hand on the tiller," or "firm hand." A tiller is a simple device to steer a non-motorized sail- or oar-powered vessel. Unlike a wheel, which steers a vessel indirectly, a tiller had direct entry in the water, and a commensurately immediate effect on the vessel's course, and stability. Thus the need for a steady hand on it.
However, Senator McCain did not appear to be particularly steady.
Michelle and Barack hanging around afterwards and talking to everybody "elevated" Barack. This seems like a really small thing, but in light of McCain and Cindy being conspicuously absent, it was huge!
Wednesday Poll #1 out today:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll (Yesterday's Results in Parenthesis)
* Barack Obama 47.1% (47.7%)
* John McCain 45.2% (45.3%)
The eventual success of Barack Obama in November will have come not only from the adverse economic context. The formidable energy that pushed him ahead of Clinton during the long primary season is still fueling his campaign with a strength that no candidate from the Republican side could have possibly countered. Barack Obama's serenity during this long and tumultuous campaign, reassures voters that he his the one with the nerve to sail across the rocky seas that lie on the horizon, and this is true to the extent that his ethnicity has virtually become a non-issue.
McCain lost because he's a Republican. He wedded himself to the ideas and policies that are failing. He refuses to acknowledge this, so voters are going to punish him and his Capitol Hill buddies severely.
If America doesn't do this, then we are embracing their failed policies and deserve further failures. We re-elected Bush in 2004 and expanded his Senate powers, so we are paying the price.
A company who hires the wrong CEO pays a heavy price in its performance. A company that refuses to fire that CEO deserves extinction.
judas_priest: I've no recollection of having been offended by your comments, but this Gentile for one much appreciates your Yom Kippur gesture and example. Shalom!
Ok, he won the debate. I think that's undebatable. Is being better than McCain much of a measure, though?
Greetings from Dayton,Ohio!
My first post after lurking a few weeks.
This was an annoying event in that both candidates failed to answer the questions, but used their time for speechifying. I watched it on TV, and, yes, Obama did look better.
McCains' worst moment was the "that one!" comment, the way he said it and the way he looked. That might have been the most memorable moment.
I though McCains' populist approach to the mortgage foreclosure thing was pretty good, but does he really mean it?
It doesn't sound very"GOP", you know what I mean.
judas_priest: I've no recollection of having been offended by your comments. But this Gentile for one much appreciates your Yom Kippur gesture and example. Shalom!
What I find peculiar is how is one point decline in the Zogby daily tracker causes the RCP poll average to decline by 2 points.
Before Zogby the RCP average was 5.5 after the release it went down to 5.3.
IRCP messing with the poll averages number again?
Anyone else starting to think everyone (including us men) should be pushing for a reverse suffragette movement? I.e. take the vote away from the men... that way this election is over in even more of a landslide :-)
Now, I took my time to watch the second debate (recorded).
McCain said “my friends” maybe 20 times but never mentioned the middle class, nor he did in the first debate as far as I can remember : Impressive .
Previously, days ago and months ago, I also watched DNC convention ,RNC convention, and the VP debate.
Ok .Seen from abroad ,I would summarize as follow.
Obama/Biden ticket’s task:
Committed to shape the nation back to its greatness by “changing” America whit wisdom, enthusiasm and experience.
McCain/Palin ticket’s task:
Given that “the fundamental of the economy are strong” and “you can believe in it”, We’ll give you “more of the same”, there is no reason to “change”.
Meanwhile ,in the spare time, we’ll “bomb” “that one”, ”you betcha” ”my friends”… “yup, yup”.
To Sean Quinn:
Sir, thank you for your daily “on the road” diamonds.
I came in America many times in my life and what always amazed me is the almost endlessly landscape of your country and the huge variety gender of the people.
Whit your report You make me feel like I am travelling along whit You.
gracias.
:)
Now, I took my time to watch the second debate (recorded).
McCain said “my friends” maybe 20 times but never mentioned the middle class, nor he did in the first debate as far as I can remember : Impressive .
Previously, days ago and months ago, I also watched DNC convention ,RNC convention, and the VP debate.
Ok .Seen from abroad ,I would summarize as follow.
Obama/Biden ticket’s task:
Committed to shape the nation back to its greatness by “changing” America whit wisdom, enthusiasm and experience.
McCain/Palin ticket’s task:
Given that “the fundamental of the economy are strong” and “you can believe in it”, We’ll give you “more of the same”, there is no reason to “change”.
Meanwhile ,in the spare time, we’ll “bomb” “that one”, ”you betcha” ”my friends”… “yup, yup”.
To Sean Quinn:
Sir, thank you for your daily “on the road” diamonds.
I came in America many times in my life and what always amazed me is the almost endlessly landscape of your country and the huge variety gender of the people.
Whit your report You make me feel like I am travelling along whit You.
gracias.
:)
Obama definitely knocked this one out of the park. He just came across as more confident, more eloquent, and less rude on every point. McCain's attempts to "jab" at Obama were pretty silly "See he still didn't give us a figure (for the fine)!", well duh McCain he's the plan 100% done yet since he's not President(yet.
Between Obama performing well and McCain stumbling around the questions and the floor, I'd give this one strongly to Obama.
When McCain said "that one" he was probably thinking of his famous ad "The One."
McCain should have pointed out that Barack did not list a single thing that he didn't know.
Odd jokes that fell flat did not help McCain such as the hair transplant self-deprecating joke.
McCain's use of "my friend" reminded me of the old movie "Music Man" with Robert Preston as a con man... "My friends, ya got trouble right here in River City, and that starts with 'T' and that rhymes with 'P' and that stands for Pool..." I think the American people are tired of The Con and the Sting. McCain is tired, and it looks like Palin might do well to consider dropping him.
Zogby tracking down to plus 2 obama
DailyKos tracker +10
A key aspect of Obama's campaign is that we are doing these things together, not having them done "for" us, or "to" us by unknown players. That comes through time and time again and I don't think the Repugs get it at all.
I thought Obama's response on Medical Insurance -- that companies would go to the least regulated states -- was very good. Obama was the only one to even mention education. His comments on global warming, conservation, and alternative energy were at least coherent (McCain's "nuclear" and "drilling" response did not address the short term).
I think Colbert (or is he now Chorizobert?) could have set up a satellite link to Sean. He deserves his time in the sun, too.
RCP is officially a complete and total tool if that wasn't obvious before.
Including the Zogby tracker which just started this week while giving that lame "oh, there are too many trackers" excuse when excluding the R2K tracker. It's blatantly obvious that the only reason the Zogby tracker is included is because it is favorable to McCain.
As pathetic and ridiculous as the McCain/Palin ticket has become with their desperation 'fear & smear' tactics...and no matter how well Obama did last night vs. McCain and is doing in the polls right now...we're still almost month out from the election and the Republican party has proven they have absolutely no scruples or moral restraints whatsoever. I don't rule out them doing ANYTHING at this stage...and that means ANYTHING at all!
A great analogy I read on another blog...it's like the 4th quarter of basketball game with 2:00 minutes left in the game and the losing team, down by 10 pts. has no other chance but to deliberately and blatantly commit fouls to try to give themselves a last chance to win. But McCain/Palin & Republicans should note that even in that situation, there is a limit to just how blatantly you can foul or you get kicked out of the game!
Obama/Biden...don't let up!!!
'George Q. Public'...
Ras WI...
O:54
M:44
georgeqpublic
Nonsense. Gop has scruples.
Hange on a mo, just answering the phone....
Hey they say they are the DNC, just reminding me the election is November 11th.
Now where was I?
I'm 28 and I do know what "hand on the tiller" means, but probably that's because I'm British and it's used quite a lot in this country. Maybe young Americans haven't heard that expression, however.
Somebody pointed out that McCain did not mention Palin's name even once during the debate. The last few days of the campaign it's been as if they are running completely different campaigns. (Not sure I heard Obama mention Biden last night, BTW.)
Some commentators were speculating last night about why McCain didn't follow through with the highly personal attacks on Obama that Palin and the McCain ad campaign had been making -- calling him a liar, questioning his mysterious past, linking him to terrorism, etc. I have three hunches about that.
Either (a) McCain has reached a point where he is disagreeing with his own campaign's strategy and tactics, or (b) he finally decided to let just Palin be the attack dog (and thereby save his own reputation), or (c) the format of the debate -- in which he couldn't just stand at his podium and never look at Obama -- made it too awkward for him to attack his opponent so personally.
Tiller? You mean pre-historic steering wheel? Appropriate for the former mayor of Bedrock.
Matt said...
Ras WI...
O:54
M:44
My friends, Americans, now, should not be looking at poll numbers but understanding, at the end of the day, what is more important is, during times like this, being able to going back and looking at track records and seeing who's more apt to be talking about solutions and wishing for and hoping for solutions for some opportunity to change, and who's actually done it?
McCain looked like an escapee from the nursing home. It seemed like he was having trouble walking, he was moving like a 90 year old.
His rudeness to Obama was enough to turn even republicans off, he is seething with hatred for obama and it shows.
People always vote for the likeable guy and that sure isn`t McCain, He knows he is losing and it shows,
Pierre.
I think the Reuters/Zogby poll is as crap as you say, but RCP don't include R2K because it has no past record in doing tracking polls. at least that's their official line.
Now, regarding the Reuters/Zogby poll, it's a load of shit. Obama is up +9 with indies and +7 with women, yet only +2 overall? Either their party ID is tied or they over poll men - or both.
Just out of curiosity, why is it that Texas is so stubbornly red?
Bush is now (almost) out of the picture after all. And it's a minority-majority state, with big urban centers and a sophisticated economy. I would have thought that of all the Southern states (Florida excepted), Texas would be likeliest to be trending purple by now.
A deeper point to ponder is this: the conventional wisdom has it that California represents the future of the United States. Which is pretty good news for the Dems.
But what if it's Texas?
Zogby for president.
Nate, this SurveyUSA poll is from California.
Two people on NPR focus group from Nevada said..get this...that McCain is their man after the debate because McCain offered specifics and Obama was vauge and general, one woman challenged them said it was interesting that they appeared to see a completely diff debate.
I think if you are undecided right now, when there is such a clear choice and diametric difference between the two candidates, you probably shouldn't be allowed to vote :-)
If it was third and long and McWalnuts was about to get sacked before the debate, where are they now?
Fake punt? Put in Jesus on fourth and infinity and send Sarah long?
Oh wait, there's Jerry Wright.
The link to video of Nate on Colbert Report is here. It's even better on replaying than in the original. I had to look up the names of those teams!
that's a douchebag comment, moondancer.
Tiller? It's a maritime word. If you've never been boating, you may not know the word. If you're from a maritims country (e.g., United Kingdom) chances are good it's in the common language. McCain is a Navy guy. It wasn't a strange word to use, even in a national debate.
It's "Tread softly, but walk with a big stick!"
How many senior moments did McCain have last night?
turgidson
how about toast?
uh, it's 'speak softly'.
Anyone noticed that just even by coming onto view to answer a question, the dial on CNN just automatically drops for McCain. That's not a good sign also.
Frida: If Obama makes errors in his speeches are they 'junior moments'? Or are we supposed to turn a blind eye to his faults?
McCain senior moments:
Talking about Hoover.
Talking about jello.
Talking about a hair transplant.
That one.
Tiller.
Wandering around the stage like a confused old man in the park.
Healthcare being a responsibility.
For McCain, Shouldn't it be "carry a big zimmer frame"?
That One inspired the artist in me @ Flickr
WOW!
That
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=eniG9l_7its&eurl=http://www.google.com/reader/view/?tab=my
would make really nice 527 Ad....
Well, that was a slight Obama win on the merits but in the context of the campaign it was a heavy defeat for McCain.
What is more, the word is out that McCain is not going to press the Ayers, Wright angle from today onwards. We'll see if that's true but if it is, doesn't it just demonstrate again that McCain's judgment and temperament are inadequate? Yes, he's eventually made the right decision but only after 72 hours of filth failed to move the poll numbers.
To draw an analogy; it's good when a pedophile reforms his ways but you still wouldn't trust him with your children would you?
Meantime, the polling pain continues for the GOP. Obama up 54-44 in Wisconsin per Rasmussen.
The Zogby tracker doesn't concern me as they are clearly weighting Repubs too highly. If Obama is winning independents by 7 points, he wins this easily. Let's see what the Rasmussen and Gallup trackers say.
The only thing that disappointed me was that Obama did not call McCain on that insane (overcoached? deniability? ignorant? nonsensical?) remark about funding an "overhead projector" for the Adler Planetarium.
I had hoped that Sen. Obama knew enough about the project (or the facility) to point out the difference between an overhead projector used in a classroom and a new generation digital planetarium, but there were bigger fish to fry.
I'm a historic gal, I get very caught up on historical details like those. It's only of my favorite sayings, and it bothers me when people misquote them.
I did some light googling, and it looks like there are four variations of this saying. So, McCain version is used and well known.
I do hold Obama and Biden responcible for their mistakes. I just see a lot less of them coming from their side.
In Zogby Obama is winning indies by 9 and women by 7 and the average is 2 points up??????
Dario, they obviously over poll Repugs and men.
What's with all that doodling? Is McCain debate doodling going on Meg Whitman's EBAY?
Or was doodling McCain's way of ignoring Obama like he did in the first debate?
I see Michelle Obama is on both Larry King and the Daily Show tonight.
If in this week Obama is by 8 or up in Rasmussen and Gallup, the race is over.
I literally LOL'd when McCain needed to write down that question from Brokaw on three entitlement priorities.
"Expect the polls to tick up another point for Obama on the strength of this debate."
But don't expect any such results TODAY, of course, since none of the polls released today (except those explicitly about the debate) will include post-debate interviews. Tomorrow we might have some initial evidence from the national trackers and by the weekend we could have some state polls that included post-debate numbers. I wouldn't expect any big changes though.
"In Zogby Obama is winning indies by 9 and women by 7 and the average is 2 points up??????"
Yes, Dario, Zogby is an idiot. You don't even need to see the detailed internal numbers to know that the sample is totally off. If Obama is winning independents by 9 and is getting basically as much support from Dems as McCain is from Republicans, then Obama has a very comfortable lead. Has Zogby been paying any attention to registration numbers this year? Even Rasmussen knows that the Dems have a 5+ point advantage in party ID, and that's a very conservative number. Seeing a poll like this really drives home how bad some polls are.
Nate,
It's been quite awhile since I last seen you at a Borders here in Chicago promoting PECOTA and the BP Handbook, good to see with your recent TV appearences that you're still doing well over the last few years. I want to thank you for bringing your statistical talents towards another sector with 538.
As far as the debates, neither did well and only one had to (McCain). This type of debate with the audience consisting of a spectrum of American voters should play a primary role towards shaping the content and presentation of how questions are answered. Obama had the chance to hit the HR that puts this game out of reach by focusing on where we should and will be 4 years from now rather than attacking McCain. They didn't want to hear about McCain's voting record or how much regression there has been over the last 8 years, everyone knows that. He had the opportunity to secure himself an even more substantial lead by being progressive in his theme but was more intent on looking back and I disagree with that theme.
Shocking! Nate calls another one for Obama.
Rasmussen
O-51, M-45
O is down 1 from yesterday, M up 1
So we are seeing a TINY bit of tightening ahead of last night's debate, at least in a few polls (Zogby, R2000, and now Ras). We'll see what Hotline has to say today. Given Obama's strong performance, we could see his numbers jump up a bit. However, having Obama's average numbers go from up 6 to up 5 before a strong debate doesn't worry me much.
Rasmussen tracking?
McCain up 1 point but if his average is 45% is not good for him.
I'd also say that Gallup probably won't reflect this trend; Gallup had decent numbers for McCain on Friday and Saturday that will roll out.
But this Ras tracking is before the debate.
Let´s see the friday tracking.
I was amused by all the right-wing spin folks who were visably upset that McCain didn't get into Ayers. Hannity was especially hysterical.
Ras Wisc:
Obama 54
McCain 44
last 3 polls O +10, 10, 5...McCain needs to forget about WI.
I have played quite a few strategy and tactics games in my time, and what I am seeing from both campaigns is really analogous to a lot of situations that I've seen. If that sounds dumb, well maybe it is, but hear me out.
Most strategy and tactics games - starcraft, c&c, etc. - force a player not only to use cunning in picking and winning battles, but also in establishing a lead in resources available. Given balanced unit types fighting against each other, not even a master tactician can hope to win against an army with superior funds available.
What's more, I also play EVE online - one of those massive multiplayer online games that lets people log in to one universe and interact with each other. It's set in space, and the mechanics allow for large player alliances to take control of star systems and mine valuable resources from the moons and asteroids, among other things. For a couple of months I was with a smaller alliance that was very focused on fighting, and not on collecting resources. Just as in those strategy games, our base of operations and our fleets were eventually steamrolled - completely wiped out - by the bigger alliances with their massively organized industrial bases.
What am I getting at? I've seen this election before. I've seen it in every one-sided game I have ever played. At this point it no longer matters how well McCain does in debates or even if he starts trying to organize - Obama is the juggernaut with the resources to secure the win. Not saying that's a fault of McCain's necessarily - the resource base in this game was being laid before Obama even started to run - them's just the facts.
I would expect a natural tightening in the tracking polls as we get closer to the election. Todays polls reflect that. However on the strength of Obama's debate performance he should reverse that within a couple of days. I doubt it goes to worse than Obama +4 on its least favorable day.Obama is still over the magic 50 pct. mark.
Yeah, it's probably good to take a bit of a break from the poll watching until later on this week and early next week.
Tomorrow and friday national polls will be important.
Today´s polls have been released yesterday.
Tracking polls mean little we have EC system. Look at the polls the last week amd notice the number that Obama is pulling 50+ in state polls, that means McCain is cooked. Obama clearly beat McCain in the debate in McCain's supposed best format. McCain will be lucky if he isn't further behind in state polls that start sampling today.
Battleground tracker: Obama 49% McCain 45%
Obama -1, McCain +2 since yesterday.
http://www.tarrance.com/files/2-way-ballot-trender-10-7.pdf
Zogby is just very attentive to be the winner however it turns out.
His internals are in line with other pollsters', his electoral map is not much different than Nate's (except for Nevada). Also go to his site and clic on the States on the electoral maps. He is calling 7-10% gaps as "close".
In his own words he is projecting a close election in terms of popular votes and a landslide in terms of electoral votes. He is very active on the non political market as well so he is searching visibility.
This poll makes him very very visible.
As usual for Zogby: this poll if fine for any result.
Polls won't tighten automatically and for no reason.
That Wisconsin poll is very interesting. Here on the ground in Wisconsin, it feels like McCain would need something monumental to overcome the excitement for Obama.
rasmussen
O 51 M 45
O -1 M +1
polls are tightening because of Ayers (?)
Today was the first day Obama lost a point in the Ras tracking poll since September 12.
Polls are tightening, it could be Ayers or could be a natural fall back and consolidation after a bounce.
That said, I think Obama gets a couple points from lasts night's debate. McCain's performance was not even average.
Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 72.0% chance of winning in November.
did anyone else notice that McCain was wandering around the stage because the stool was too high for him to sit comfortably? Amazing that his staff didn't think about that before the debate. I think it threw him off his game a little and I imagine he had some juicy words with his team afterwards.
Tightening?
All the polls show Obama ahead, it´s tightening of only one is McCain leaning or tie.
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be in Pennsylvania today.
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be in Pennsylvania today.
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