The charts and the graphs on the site have been updated, and the today's polls thread will be up within an hour or so.
In the meantime, you'll see that we've added a couple of new items to our scenario analysis. What are the odds that Obama wins or ties the election because of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District -- or McCain because of Maine's 2nd? Not very good.
10.12.2008
Patience
@ 8:36 PM
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230 comments
anthony said...
"If you guys think based on stupid polls, Hussein is going to win , you guys are delusional. Kerry was up 5 points at this stage. when they go into the voting booth, Americans are going to realize that they just can't pull the lever for Barry. Remember New Hampshire?"
Yup, I remember New Hampshire. So, you think McCain will tear up one of these days, anthony?
"Kerry was up 5 points at this stage."
Oh really?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct12.html
methinks you don't know what you are talking about.
This website always puts me in a good mood. However, the election is probably much closer than this website predicts. Don't get complacent in the last few weeks of this campaign and assume that Obama will win.
I just got back from canvassing for Obama in Bristol, PA and after going door to door for eight hours I recognize that we cannot take any vote for granted. An Obama victory will require thousands of Americans knocking on doors, talking with undecided voters and fighting for every single vote that we can get. Don't expect an Obama victory just because our country desperately needs him after eight years of George Bush. If you want to change the direction that our country is headed you should volunteer for the Obama campaign and fight as hard as you can for every last vote.
Someone on the talk shows today predicted that Lieberman will switch parties and become a Republican after the election. It wouldn't surprise me.
Can we have a color-coded cartogram? Cartograms are awesome.
sorry to repeat from the previous page, but since several people asked - here's the link to my cartogram
http://www.prairiecomm.net/images/cartogram_10_11_08.gif
MADRE said:
I am beginning to wonder - as I drove through rural Michigan today and saw hundreds of McCain signs - if maybe the "racism/poll effect" isn't actually a reverse proposition. There seems to be so much worry that people "say" they'll vote Democratic, but will actually vote for McCain because of latent racism. I think it's actually the reverse: people are afraid to admit they're voting for Obama (because of fear of retribution, etc.)so they present themselves (especially in rural areas and Midwest/Southern suburbs) as Republicans but will in fact vote for Obama in secret. This is something that seems much more plausible in areas such as the Midwest where the economic realities have hit so hard, yet people are afraid to "come out of the closet" as Obama supporters because of his race.
North Carolina governor Mike Easley agrees with you.
Link to Zogby poll for Monday.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/sundaystartimes/auckland/4725430a6468.html
Link to Zogby poll info:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/sundaystartimes/auckland/4725430a6468.html
That Zogby poll is today's. Not Monday's. Monday's comes out in a couple of hours, but Matt Drudge says it O48 M44. Go figure.
Robert:
That's today's Zogby. It may be Monday in NZ, but...
I love the way the results look, but I was wondering if the model has ever been backtested to previous elections, especially 2000 and 2004. We constantly hear people talking about how Kerry and Gore were up at this point too, and clearly that isn't true, but were they ever up? Backtesting the model would require hours of onerous work, but would inspire a lot of confidence if Nate were able to say, "The model would have predicted the election in 2000 and 2004 with a margin of x points."
Akoolromeo said...
I have aquestion. Was this site around for the 2004 election and if so, how accurate was it in predicting that result? Not just predicting the winner, but how accurate was it in predicting electoral votes and percentage? Does anyone know?
site is about 7 or 8 months old
New Thread with polls
sawherstanding10,
you can look anywhere using da google to see 2000 and 2004 election polling at this time. Basically no they weren't comparable and in most cases they were at best 1-3 points ahead and in many cases behind at this time in October. Double digits leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Virginia, Colorado? Didn't happen. But check it out for yourself - there are lots of websites that retained this data.
If any of you are wondering why there was a dramatic increase in Win% - it's because the MOE was lowered dramatically across the board by an average of 2.5%.
dingdingding... you are correct, sir
eve said...
Akoolromeo said...
I have aquestion. Was this site around for the 2004 election and if so, how accurate was it in predicting that result? Not just predicting the winner, but how accurate was it in predicting electoral votes and percentage? Does anyone know?
site is about 7 or 8 months old
October 12, 2008 9:16 PM
***********
I was wondering, because I recall looking at a similar site than back in 2004. I wasn't sure if it was this one or not.
My guess of Lieberman:
Reid will offer him this deal -
1) Keep his Dem seniority/chairmanship
2) Never vote for cloture on any filibuster (obviously free to vote on any up/down issue)
3) Stay away from Dem caucus meetings.
It's a deal I could live with. We will need to his vote to shut down filibusters.
"
I was wondering, because I recall looking at a similar site than back in 2004. I wasn't sure if it was this one or not."
Electoral-vote.com?
Minor mistake - Lieberman would agree to vote FOR cloture, not against...sorry
some questions come up every day.
maybe the tipping point charts (and others) should include a link to the post or tag-category that explains them?
just a suggestion nate & sean. keep up the great work!
its so great to see the same type of instant polling. this election will change alot of things. look how the web has morphed during this election! awesome! GET OUT AND VOTE!
This is bad news! Not that Obama is projected to win--but that Obama is ONLY "projected" to win. Unless we get out there on election day and make these projections into realities, Obama will not have won!
Obama supporters - remember, there's still 3 weeks until the election. Nate's projections are for if the race was held today - it isn't for 23 days.
I keep seeing people claim this, and it's absolutely not true. Go read Nate's FAQ, especially the sections about "Step 2" and "Step 3". Nate is doing his best to estimate, given what we know from all the recent polls, what is likely to happen on Nov 4th. This includes the fact that historically races have shown a tendency to narrow near the end (Step 2), and the fact that the popularity of the candidates with various groups and in various states can change over the remaining time between now and Nov 4th (Step 3).
Step 3, possible swings in the remaining time, is particularly hard to judge, as Nate admitted in his FAQ when he wrote it months ago (at the time, he said he was probably overestimating the size of likely swings). Indeed, Nate just changed his mind about some of the assumptions he was making in Step 3, based on how things have been developing over the last few months, which had made him think he'd been overestimating how much individual states might vary from the national results. So he adjusted his model to correct this. The net result of this mistake was that he'd been overestimating the chance of states swapping sides, and so he'd been overestimating the chance of whoever is behind at this point managing to win on Now 4th.
Which is bad news!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!! ... since he's behind at the moment. And that's why Nate's estimate of McCain's win chance just dropped from 9.1% to 5.9% overnight.
Perhaps Obama should be wearing tuxedos on the campaign trail. They have longer coattails. Keep working, blogging, and believing. Change is coming.
Great, it's going to be fun having this country spiral into a five year long depression either way this election goes. It's sad that so many of you are thrilled about "tax cuts" that you haven't even looked at. Can you really call it a tax cut if the majority of it goes to non-taxpayers? Last time I checked that was called welfare...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122385651698727257.html
Vote Third Party in 08'
Contact RCP: email
john@realclearpolitics.com
He is very responsive. I haven't bought his responses, but they work.
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