The charts and the graphs on the site have been updated, and the today's polls thread will be up within an hour or so.
In the meantime, you'll see that we've added a couple of new items to our scenario analysis. What are the odds that Obama wins or ties the election because of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District -- or McCain because of Maine's 2nd? Not very good.
10.12.2008
Patience
@ 8:36 PM
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230 comments
Red PacMan is now almost completely gobbled up by Blue PacMan! Keep Munchin'!
94%? Hot damn. This is getting good.
Mourners of the neoconservative wing of the Republican Party, please omit flowers.
This is great! This is my firts post ^_^ Love this site and I am sooooooo addicted ^_^
Damn is the best word I can come up with.
WOW! Now its time to dig into the details....
What empiracal data supports those new graphs.
Halle-freakin-lujah!
i need my fix. 5.9% geez. McCain was relying up his staff in Virgninia today saying were down a couple points now but after we kick his ass on Wednesday we will be working hard 24/7. When does Georgia and Montana flip back to light blue
Holy. Win. %.
I'm curious to know what poll results have produced it, though. The map looks the same as ever...maybe Florida's a shade bluer, Montana and ND a ways redder?
TENTH!!!
Oh, Nate, you're beginning to get me overconfident that Obama's going to pull this off. I don't want to get overconfident.
(But all that blue is gorgeous.)
Wow, I need to go back to the neighbor-to-neighbor site and so some calls -- this is very exciting!
94%!?!?!??!?!!?!?!?!
Jesus.
McCain will win all Nebraska and Obama all Maine.
My guess: Such great consistency on the national polls only 3 weeks away from the election means a lot.
Anyway, look at all those Obama 100%'s! And the electoral vote graph! lmao!
WOW! just left phone bank here in So Cal. We called "undeclared" voters in Nevada. I'd say we called 500 people and 85% were strongly Pro-Obama. Most had no clue where the Early Voting centers were and they were pretty happy for the info. Many wanted to know how they could get involved. A Good Day!
So a couple of the trackers (Gallup and Diageo) tightened quite a bit today. State polling still lags by one or two days.
Just noticed that Obama's 'wins popular vote' and 'wins all Kerry states' %s are identical. o_0
Look how blue Florida is getting folks. We're working hard, hard, hard to flip it. And the possibilities are starting to look real good.
Um, is this still great news...FOR JOHN MCCAIN?
Patience?
I'm outta frikkin' patience!!
I wanna see some analysis right now, Silver!
You think you can just come in here and tell us Obama is 1-20 like some goddam Secretariat and not give us reasons?!
/jk
:):):):):):):):):):):):):):):):)
I personally think the 0.01% for McCain wins while losing OH/FL/PA is an extreme understatement.
And the news just gets better and better for those who support Barack Obama the true maverick in this campaign.
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No.
Don't believe these polls. We're 20 points down! Get up and FIGHT!
Might want to rescale the electoral vote distribution plot, since some of the very frequent simulation outcomes are making it hard to see the less frequent ones. You could set the scale to 300 and just let some run off of the top. Or not--just a thought.
The excitement is building among Obama supporters. We can taste victory. We want it. We need it.
America will not be fooled by neocon smears again.
And this business about ACORN is just as much BS as the Ayers thing (if not even more.)
ACORN TRUTH.
It's so sickening that the right wingers who have real sick stuff in their closets propagate this BS.
I just watched Lou Dobbs story on ACORN and it made me sick. If you read ACORN's response it's obvious that it's a complete right wing smear job.
*** BALLS EXPLODE ***
5.9% *is* great news for John McCain.
No, seriously. I think he'd take 6%.
this is why i jumped ship
Important comment by a poster in Political Wire:
i think its just outrageous that none in the media is talking about sarah palins abuse of power!! it pisses me off beyond belief that shes going to get away with this! the media would rather talk about bill ayers, and his relationship to obama. why is the media apparently not concerned about this abuse of power as govenor?? shes talking about expanding the powers of the vice president! if she will use her power as govenor to pursue her personal vendettas, whats to stop her from the same as vp? it should scare the hell out of people to think about her as vp! its scary also to think about how much power her husband todd had in alaska! isnt anyone concerned what he would do if she was vp? i think its such crap that no one in the media is talking about her and her husbands ties to the alaska indepence party! wtf! they want to rip one of the stars off our flag people! why is no one talking about this??!! theres a video where sarah palin is adrressing the indepence party convention! the media is so wrong to help mccain smear obama by always talking about ayers, but refusing to report on all the dirt on sarah palin and mccain! how are they getting away with this? people should be really terrified of a palin /mccain presidency! im so sick and tired of ignorant bigots, that turn a blind eye to the truth! what the hell is wrong with people?! what the hell is wrong with the press? the truth about mccain and sarah palin needs to come out! how can people be so blind and ignorant? it just baffles me! why arent more people angry about this??
This great FOR JOHN MCCAIN! He gets to retire and go back to mistreating his wife.
renee, what's the neighbor to neighbor site?
http://election-projection.net/
Probability of Win:
McCain 0.5%
Obama 99.5%
HOT DAMN.
Me thinks its the +10 CO PPP poll as the CO win percentage went way up.
This seems to high to me, but heck, what do I know.
We are a strong finish people!
ABC national poll out @ midnight
Daaaaaaaam. Under 6%? It was 9 yesterday right?
So, could you start including "chance of Obama landslide" up on the big board? :)
Matthew, that makes sense. If Obama wins Colorado it's hard to see him losing the election. So a big increase in his win % there would lead to a big increase in his overall win %.
O+7 ? or O+10
predictions ?
Some interesting results:
Obama landslide is at 40%, almost 7x more than McCain's chances of winning at all.
Obama still has a 77% chance of winning while losing Ohio, and has a 55% chance of winning if he loses Ohio AND florida.
Obama has a 90% chance of winning all the Kerry states.
Thanks Renee for saying you are inspired to make calls for Obama tonight.
I'll do the same, I'll be calling Nevada from my home in CA.
And for everyone else, I'd say never count chickens or electoral votes till they are sure things.
Wanna make them more sure?
Get on the damn phone!!
Tonight, tomorrow and for the next three weeks.
www.barackobama.com
Paul
Folks, folks, this 94% is a statistical prediction if the elections were held today.. McCain is no dummy, and the republicans, like the rest of America, are at their best when are pinned against the wall. Lets continue to push and work hard. This is not the time to sit back and say "we won".. we didn't win yet..
It seems even certain Republican candidates have been attaching their name to Obama's at this point.
Why can't the election just be tomorrow?
I know this is great--beyond great. But I'm here in f'in OHIO!!!!
I'd feel so much better if Ohio turned dark blue . . . I just keep convincing myself that Ohio is irrelevant. Sure, we have to keep doing everything we can up to and including Election Day, we can be frosting on the cake, but, damn it'd make me feel a whole lot better if this would bust open now
Hey Nate,
I think your plotting program is screwed up; looking at the graph, I can hardly see the RED on it :-) HEHEHE
Go-bama!!
Getting a little cocky , arent you guys? This thing is not won yet and will not be.
anthony said...
Getting a little cocky , arent you guys? This thing is not won yet and will not be.
its over
HAHAHAHAHAHAH
VA and CO at 93% ... that's impressive
It ain't over, but we need to keep pushing while we are ahead. now is probable a great time to donate to Obama again.
Real Joe: my prediction is O+5 if it was taken over the weekend.
LordieLordie -
This site projects the for the election day, not if the election is held today.
What nate is saying is that there is a 94% chance Obama will win on Novemeber 4th based on his model.
I'd like to know if it's mathematically plausible for McCain to win based on all the polls being wrong? Like... what would the chances be? I'm pretty sure they'er a lot smaller than 5.9%.
It's also the 24 days until the election thingy. The closer we get to the election without serious tightening, the higher Obama's chances.
Lots of Obama excitement here in our local fall foliage festival here in NH. We had a table to Obama, Hodes and the Democratic State Senator candidate from our district. Lots of action, lots of people still wanting to volunteer for the first time. Canvassing and calls are still going strong in the Central NH area (an area with a Democratic edge, but where a larger edge can overpower weaker numbers from the more conservative seacoast and rural areas). No McCain presence to be seen (only the Republican State Senate candidate), although news media covered Todd Palin in NH yesterday. Palin will be here Wednesday.
I'll be volunteering at the office in Concord, NH during my lunches next week and doing a voters' rights training seminar to prepare for election day. I'll probably be assigned to Keene, Henniker, Durham, Hanover or Plymouth, NH's college towns. Local call center night is Wednesday. People are MORE excited closer to the election, it seems. No drop off at all. No misplaced confidence.
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
lincoln said...
It ain't over, but we need to keep pushing while we are ahead.
its over
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
For those of you who don't know Neighbor to Neighbor, you log on to my.barackobama.com and you can get a list of people to call. You can target battleground states or your own neighborhood.
Got time?? Got minutes?? GOTV
Counting only states Obama's got at least a 90% chance of winning you get to 286 EVs.
Come on guys, it aint over yet. Keep yourselves contained for the next few weeks.
The thing is, even though we're all talking about landslides here, all Obama has to win are the Kerry states + IA + NM + CO. And he's already, basically, got all of those locked up. Even if the momentum turns, it's going to be really hard for Obama to lose.
Penn and Michigan with Obama 97% chance of winning?
Drudge-
That little shit goes with the healine that the race tightens based on Gallup.
IDIOT!
As we get closer to the election and it looks like Obama is going to win, I find it interesting how many Republicans I see talking about how important a divided government is. They say that since the Dems have the House and Senate, that people should vote for McCain so that "one party doesn't have too much power."
I'd like to ask some of these people who they voted for in 2004. Obviously with divided government being so important, they voted for should have voted for Kerry, but somehow I doubt it. Divided government is only important when it's the Dems that are in power.
Getting a little cocky , arent you guys? This thing is not won yet and will not be.
When most of the posts here contain words like 'working hard', 'get up and fight', 'keep doing everything we can', 'lets continue and push hard', 'inspired to make more calls for Obama', and 'many want to know how to get involved'....
...how is that 'cocky'? The proper word is 'motivated'.
If you would like to see a "movie" of the charts since September 10, I created a slideshow on my Flickr account. It's just a set of screen grabs from this site in sequential order.
Nate and Sean, if that's a problem, let me know and I'll remove the screen grabs.
Not over by a long shot buddy. Check the Gallup poll. Getting closer and closer. Ayers, Acorn , Rezko and all the other chickens are coming home to roost. And we havent even started with Wright!! HAHAHAHHAHAHA!!
McCain just said he is going kick BO's ass in the last debate.
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
Patience? PATIENCE?! Don't ask me for frikkin patience!!!
I wonder what happened in that one simulation where McCain lost OH/FL/PA and won the election.
I'm glad the chances for Obama keep looking better.
I'm glad for the increased energy, volunteers, and donations a likely victory might bring.
But I'm not forgetting that anything can happen in an election.
Sure, right now I'm gleefully expecting a weird McCain / Palin feud where Palin wants to keep going out doing her "off with his head" Red Queen rallies, while McCain becomes increasingly wanting to walk out of this race with something left.
But I'm not taking anything for granted until Obama's inauguration, and even then only then cautiously, once we've all sobered up from the victory parties.
Yeah, that Gallup poll with Obama at 50 percent and leading by 7 points WORRIES me. Right.
Lordie Lordie,
The projection of 94.1 is not based on if the election was today. It's based on the election occurring Nov. 4th. If all the polls were to stay exactly the same the win percentage would go up because the time shortens.
anthony said...
Not over by a long shot buddy. Check the Gallup poll. Getting closer and closer. Ayers, Acorn , Rezko and all the other chickens are coming home to roost. And we havent even started with Wright!! HAHAHAHHAHAHA!!
attacks are working ? NOT
its over
grow some balls
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
Oh, it's hard to stay calm and not break out into a dance, but I clearly recall Election Night, 2000. Nothing can be be taken for granted until close calls have been fully recounted or it's been declared a landslide.
But wow, a 94.1% chance of an Obama victory? It's like Christmas in October.
Everyone knows about Jeremiah Wright already. I even knew about Jeremiah Wright, and I didn't follow politics AT ALL during the primaries.
But good luck with that. And you know it's over when real joe says it is over.
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
McCain just said he is going kick BO's ass in the last debate.
He also said before the second debate that the "gloves were going to come off" and what happened? McCain got his ass kicked....
or as I think John Stewart said, maybe he just had a softer pair of gloves on under the first pair.
jaime said...
Yeah, that Gallup poll with Obama at 50 percent and leading by 7 points WORRIES me. Right.
stupid liberal hippie
lincoln said...
McCain just said he is going kick BO's ass in the last debate.
we will see
Patience, hah! No slowing down on the treadmill, datahamsters! You can sleep when I'm dead!
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
The electoral map is not close.
Stupid liberal hippy? Come on now, Joe.
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
Once the win percentage has reached 95%, we've achieved statistical significance. No need to go through with the election.
Everyone, when you have the time, click the McCain ads at the top of the page!!!
It keeps the site going and costs McCain money :)
This is looking quite like Reagan-Carter, although the break for Obama is happening earlier in the race than Reagan's did. What would Carter have done in the last month if he'd actually had three debates with Reagan, and he'd seen Reagan take a 9 point lead in the polling two days later?
Nate: I thought you might be taking a well deserved day off and was adjusting to the withdrawal symptoms. Good to know the fix is worth the wait.
chrisready
Thanks for the slide show. I've been obsessing over this site for so long that I've forgotten just how much it's changed since way back when. Great to see the progression.
Now to keep it there or improve!!!
Holy smoke! Is that really how low McCain's numbers are today? Even if McCain regains some ground during these last three weeks... that's a heck of distance he has to travel. And I think he's too old and disoriented to make the trip.
jaime said...
Stupid liberal hippy? Come on now, Joe.
you worry about one poll=stupid
this is over
my prediction: McCain will loose the 3rd debate
its about the economy
HOT damn.
Speaking of clicking the ads on the top of the page, I actually like that "original mavericks" ad. It was actually positive. If they had more ads like that I might even like them.
Keep on:
1) knocking on doors
2) calling
3) donating
4) linking up with everybody and anybody you know to tell them WHY voting for Obama is important.
This isn't over, yet! Yes, I can taste victory but I won't believe it until I see it Nov. 4th!
Every time I see Sarah Palin I dream of the day I can come to 538.com and see 100% under Barack Obama's win percentage. I've had enough of these clowns.
Almost ready to get the next one out:
95% BUSH VOTES, 5% WIN PROBABILITY
REAL JOE PREDICTION ALERT:
OBAMA WILL WIN THE 3RD DEBATE
Real Joe=homophobic reTHUG troll
This is not over, remember 2000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Robert said...
As we get closer to the election and it looks like Obama is going to win, I find it interesting how many Republicans I see talking about how important a divided government is. They say that since the Dems have the House and Senate, that people should vote for McCain so that "one party doesn't have too much power."
I'd like to ask some of these people who they voted for in 2004. Obviously with divided government being so important, they voted for should have voted for Kerry, but somehow I doubt it. Divided government is only important when it's the Dems that are in power.
Yes, they said the same thing when Clinton was in power. It was bullshit then and it is bullshit now. I don't see them saying the same thing when the dems scraped a controlling interest in congress.
From Nates point of view I an a bit sorry its turned into such a one horse race. A landslide is not a good test for his model, as it is easy to predict. Just an observation.
I don't see any McCain ad here. But the Baseball Prospectus ad? Geez, I hope you charged them double. They're totally McCain biased.
franco: Real Joe is not a troll.
franco said...
Real Joe=homophobic reTHUG troll
we all know who is the LiberalThug troll
My prediction is that McCain's new economic plan is that Cindy's millions will be paid to middle class families if he wins. . . seems consistent with his m.o.
Josh,
On the BarackObama.com site, you can sign up to do calls in the neighbor-to-neighbor program. Most of the calling now is to the undecideds or committed BO voters for GOTV and volunteering. I did it for the first time yesterday, and it was a blast!
Real Joe said...
jaime said...
Stupid liberal hippy? Come on now, Joe.
you worry about one poll=stupid
this is over
my prediction: McCain will loose the 3rd debate
its about the economy
HOT damn.
Stupid Democrat- cant even spell "lose".
If you guys think based on stupid polls, Hussein is going to win , you guys are delusional. Kerry was up 5 points at this stage. when they go into the voting booth, Americans are going to realize that they just can't pull the lever for Barry. Remember New Hampshire?
Please note:
We (and everyone else) still have to vote.
I read this site day after day getting excited and confident, but I have to remind myself...everyone still has to vote.
TN adds up to 101%. Obama has 1% and McCain has 100%.
Just sayin'
This is no time to let up. Obama needs to finish strong. Say what you want about his campaign, but McCain is a fighter and he's likely going to throw everything he has (dirty and otherwise) out in Wednesday's debate. Plus the national tracking polls are closing a little - is the Ayers stuff finally having an impact?
Those of you in Louisiana may remember the 2003 governors race, where Bobby Jindal led Kathleen Blanco by 10 points in the polls in the final week and still lost the actual election. The point? IT'S NOT OVER!!!!
fred said...
This is not over, remember 2000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this is 2008 not 2000
Nate,
I've got a question that I can't figure out from the FAQs. How come the Popular Vote percentages are so close for both candidates when the polls show such big leads for Obama?
I love this site, and the commentary by you and Sean.
Bonny
Kerry was up 5 points at this stage.
I'm gonna have to call you out there, dumbass. :)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
Bush was leading all through October.
I wasn't worrying about one poll. I think it's stupid to worry about it, too.
Kerry wasn't up 5 points at this stage... Bush was leading all through October.
Remember North Carolina?
Matthew,
You said that the Colorado PPP poll yesterday is influencing these numbers. I think you nailed it. A very strong poll with solid internal data. Colorado was the last state Obama needed to get there without relying on Ohio and Florida.
This makes me happy. I can't wait to see the polls.
But keep fighting, keep volunteering and donating and debating with undecided friends.
Remember how 2000 and 2004 were stolen by dirty tactics. Obama needs as big a margin as we can possibly deliver.
anthony said...
Stupid Democrat- cant even spell "lose".
hey fuck face
i'm not a Democrat
I will be delighted to see Obama win. He is most definitely the right man for the job- intelligent, rational, not prone to starting illegal wars based on lies. Maybe he'll clean up the stinking mess of thieves and liars on wall street and in corporate America. Maybe he'll motivate young Americans to give a damn about service to the country and justice for the sick, the poor and the struggling humans on our own country. Of course, I will be proud that America has grown up and moved- for the most part- past race as a reason to vote for or against a candidate. Shame on all the McCain supporting hate mongers stirring up the misinformed misfits in their party. We should be better than that. How about leading by example. And by the way, I challenge ms. palin to define "Marverick". If she can't, may I suggest a dictionary. It's a book. You can buy one in a bookstore.
TN adds up to 101%. Obama has 1% and McCain has 100%.
I imagine before rounding the numbers look like:
M: 99.5%
O: .5%
I think that entropy would make a better measure of this race than the win %. Entropy, in this application, is the amount of bits it would take you to communicate the result of the election, on average. Right now the entropy stands at .323 bits, out of a maximum of 1 bit (for a tied race) and a minimum of zero bits (for a 100% certain race).
The formula for entropy is: S = - (Obama * log(Obama) + McCain * log(McCain))/log(2), where the candidate's name is his win % written as a decimal (so right now Obama = .941 and McCain = .059).
Anthony is a religious fundamentalist.
@newsfromOH
Thanks, I appreciate it. It's been interesting watching the progression. I have to go back into Google's cache to see if I can find anything earlier than 10 September. Would be interesting to see how the whole thing played out until now.
See the slideshow on Flickr.
darío said...
Anthony is a religious fundamentalist.
some crazy guy
calls me a Democrat
Hahahahahaha
The 94.1% just gave me a political boner! And I am a girl!
I debated for 4 hours with two acquaintances yesterday. One was fine the other drove me nuts. She hates Palin, doesn't like McCain, isn't sure about Obama, loves Biden but is on the fence because of the abortion issue . . .
It's just hard to change a mind that's so closed that way . . . still, I didn't give up!!!!! She's now definitely leaning Obama and I think, when push comes to shove, she'll vote the O.
Point is, EVERY SINGLE VOTE HELPS. If we can all sway 1 or 2, that's a ton of votes.
And an ignorant, Real Joe.
OMG, someone called Real Joe a Democrat!!
:: runs for cover ::
The news gives you what they think you want to hear about. If you want them to talk about Troopergate, write them. Use this link through moveon.org to send letters to newspapers nation wide. It is very easy. You only have to write one letter and click the newspapers you want it sent to. You can change your zip code and send them all over the country...swing states. One of my letters even got published.
http://pol.moveon.org/lte/lte_t.html?zip=32218<e_campaign_id=97
jen said...
The 94.1% just gave me a political boner! And I am a girl!
lol
Dont forget close Senate races in KY and GA. They are getting close enough to contribute to. Remember the nuclear option where Lieberman defects to the republican side to keep the 60 vote edge off the table.
Donate to Martin and Lundsford.
wa7th said...
OMG, someone called Real Joe a Democrat!!
:: runs for cover ::
sadly some of my fellow republicans are crazy
Bonnie
Because it is 50 separate state elections where the popular vote Winner in each state takes ALL electoral votes.
So you could have Obama win by just ONE popular vote in every state. He would then get to take all the electoral votes in the states and therefore have an electoral college vote win of 358-0 and yet still only win by a popular vote of 50 votes. Hopefully that explains it.
Lieberman, what a schmuck . . . and a black hole of charisma to boot . .
That's GREAT news for... OH SHI-
Lieberman is a loser.
Drudge is reporting that the Zogby tracking poll for tomorrow is O48 M44.
How did Drudge get the Zogby results early? Is Zogby working with Drudge? That could explain his ridiculous pro-McCain poll weighting.
Watch the HBO Special "Recount" and see the real Lieberman.
What a turncoat. CT will be removing his lame ass from Senate in due time, but until then Dems are going to need 61 Seats.
sadly some of my fellow republicans are crazy
Those are the ones what don't respond to reason. Reckon I oughta save my own breath 'n whack 'em with a shovel.
Renee had it right-- get on the phone!! Don't get cocky-- this thing isn't over yet!!!
@newsfromOH
Did you send her to http://prolifeproobama.com/ ?
I love your optimism nate, but damn...how did he jump 5% on the WP when gallup has this going from an 11 point to a 7 point race in the last 2 days.
I certainly hope your right, but, i hope the numbers arent being stuffed, because i havent seen any insane numbers in the last 2 days
Bill Clinton in Scranton today:
"It took a Democratic president to clean up after the last President Bush. It’s going to take a Democratic president to clean up after this president," Clinton said. "Make no mistake about it and we’ve done it before and we’ll do it again. America will once again rise from the ashes of the Bushes."
Ain't that the truth!!
I'm confused as to how WV was almost white yesterday and went back to solidly pink today, with no new polls in between. I had my doubts about the ARG result making it white in the first place, but if there haven't been any model changes, why would it go from white to such a dark pink in a single day with no new polls of the state?
How will I handle post-election withdrawals?
Watching. Lieberman. Pay.
homophobic reTHUG troll
...is RWC and I just donated $320 in his name. $10 for each of his 32 stupid ass comments.
Kisses.
Obama is leaning by 21 among independents in Zogby and he won only by 6???
@ChrisReady - Thanks for the screen capture slide show. I have relived those dark Palin Bounce days and am glad they are gone.
For everyone else - I can now reveal that Real Joe is actually Steve Schmidt, who has admitted he hates McCain and has been the greatest mole in the history of politics.
Thanks Real Joe / Steve Schmidt. Great work!
**McCAIN'S BALLS EXPLODE**
If any of you are wondering why there was a dramatic increase in Win% - it's because the MOE was lowered dramatically across the board by an average of 2.5%.
Obama now has 286 EV from states with 90%+ win%. It's kind of hard to lose an election when that is occurs (+52 from 70-89 and +26 from 55-69).
@newsfromOH
I thought that was Hillary.
Stuart--All of the red states got redder and all of the blue states got bluer, it seems.
Lots of 99s and 100s on both sides that weren't there before.
newt,
Not surprisingly, she doesn't get online nearly as much as everyone else I know (She hadn't even heard about the mob mentality--okay, so maybe she actually lives under a rock!!) I gave her an Ohio Catholics for Obama handout that explains a ton of stuff. Despite her uber pro-life stance, she does recognize the contradiction of policies that results in "life begins at conception and ends at birth".
Well, all looks well here in Seacoast NH. Great day on the phones, very pro-Obama response from a good 90% of the people I've talked to so far. McCain has really lost a great deal of support here, and Obama has gained it.
Did someone poll North Dakota today, or is it suffering from cousin syndrome again? It fell in half.
Hot damn, Obama is close to restoring the Union and parts of the Confederacy beside.
Republicans thought they could deconstruct the Govt, but they cut off or screwed up essential components, tax policy, FED & Banking policy, SEC oversight, FEMA, Intelligence, govt sponsored research, war planning, energy independence programs and tax incentives.
You need new tax incentives & research programs to build new businesses. You dont make profit from housing inflation.
Exactly, it takes a Dem to fix this giant mess. America remember's the Clinton years.
Me thinks its the +10 CO PPP poll as the CO win percentage went way up.
I see RCP has avoided averaging that poll in, because it would move Colorado from tossup to lean democrat
RCP no includes partisan pollster since yesterday.
If Sarah takes the presidency all the banks will be in bankrupt.
@Jakam
After Oct. 11 RCP doesn't accept "party" polls, but allows older ones to age out.
At some point RCP will have to admit it's a landslide. I am betting on November 5.
hot damn! i say i say hot damn!?!?!?!?!?!
If you want to criticize RCP, criticize them for leaving polls that favor McCain in the average for a month while only leaving ones that favor Obama for a week or two.
Can we have a color-coded cartogram? Cartograms are awesome.
I have posted why the chances for states occasionally add up to 101%.
Tennessee was won by McCain in 99.5% of scenarios and by Obama .5% of scenarios, which adds up to 100%. Since Nate rounds the numbers to the nearest whole number 99 rounds up to 100, and .5 rounds up to 1.
Make sense? :)
I have relived those dark Palin Bounce days and am glad they are gone.
Ah, memories. I relive the Palin Bounce days by watching the Roadrunner send Wile E Coyote over a cliff over and over again.
Anthony,
Real Joe is a very liberal Democrat. He's so blue, he's a pinko. He works for ACORN.
Very elitist. Actually reads books. Knows the names of newspapers.
Suspicious kind of guy. Has a passport and knows how to use it.
He is very sad that Dennis Kucinich isn't the nominee.
Time for Obama to start focusing on the Senate races. Money, surrogates, personal appearances, ads. He's got the win sewed up - the important thing now is to be able to govern!
Second on the cartogram. Maybe even color the squares relative to likelyhood of earning. *thinks* Time to get out my art program....
The map resembles the sky out here. Nearly all blue with alittle white and red at the horizon.
I bet much of this comes from Virgina. It's favored 93% for Obama.
I see that someone suggested to hit the McCain add because it will cost him money. LEts get even more clever. Mass email the add to all of your friends and family and tell them to click the add whenever they get online. More money, More Money, More Money!!!!!!!!!
PPP is a partisan poll?
Eve just made me laugh so hard coffee came out my nostrils.
Nate- I know you're pretty heavily invested in this blogger platform for your site, but is there any chance you could change over to something that allows commenters to reply directly to each other, rather than just tacking each successive comment to the bottom of a list?
RCP is a biased cesspool for the Repubs. They are only there to rally their base and ground troops on the false premise that the election is actually close.
It is all an act for McCain--smoke and mirrors. Why else was he in solid, solid BLUE IA?
"So you could have Obama win by just ONE popular vote in every state. He would then get to take all the electoral votes in the states and therefore have an electoral college vote win of 358-0 and yet still only win by a popular vote of 50 votes. Hopefully that explains it."
Actually, it is even more frightening than that.
candidate could be outvoted 50,000,000 - 12 and STILL lose the election.
All it takes would be for only ONE person to vote in the 12 largest states - and vote for the same candidate - while the opponent received 0 votes.
Then - no matter how many votes Candidate B got in the remanining 38 states, he loses the election.
I use this example to shock the Hell out of my social studies classes.
Ain't the EC grand?
"Lieberman, what a schmuck . . . and a black hole of charisma to boot . ."
________________________________
Best descrpition of Lieberman ever. He is a charisma black hole, from which no charisma nor light can escape...
McCain went to Iowa because:
1) It went for Bush last time, and he needs to try for all of the Bush states
2) The GOP there is now extremely fundy-dominated, even if that puts it out of line with the rest of the state
Nate,
This is an excellent site. I can't tell you how many times during the day I refresh it.
The only way I can McCain winning it is a major terrorist attack.
RCP has the PPP plus 10 for Obama for Colorado listed on this page.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Does this mean it is included in it's daily average?
Palin attacks Obama on abortion .......is she insane?
I'm amazed she would bring that up...wouldn't her stance on the same issue knock an awful lot of women off any proverbial fence and towards Barack? After all, I think very few people know exactly where she stands on this.
Ah well. The question then is: which person not at all connected with the Obama campaign should mention publicly what Sarah Palin believes? Specifically, that if a sixth-grader is raped and impregnated by her older brother or grandafather, then the girl should be forced to have the baby?
Yes, now that Obama has the win sealed up, it's time to coattail these people to victory:
Senators: Begich(AK), Hagan(NC), Franken(MN), Merkley(OR), Lunsford(KY), Musgrove(MS), Martin(GA)
Governors: Gregoire(WA), Perdue(NC).
Wa7th said...
"Eve just made me laugh so hard coffee came out my nostrils."
sorry 'bout that
;)
But even when McCain went to Iowa, he went to the eastern part of the state, near Illinois?!?!?! Duh(but thank you!!)
Time for Obama to start focusing on the Senate races. Money, surrogates, personal appearances, ads. He's got the win sewed up - the important thing now is to be able to govern!
NOT YET!!! If his numbers still look this good after the final debate (and you'll have to wait several days afterwards for the polls to reflect it), then maybe you can consider that. But helping out with Senate and House races is a the dessert which you can only get if you finish your dinner. Obama still needs to finish his dinner, so to speak. ;-)
CNN just ran a story on how close the election is. BO only has 264 EV and McCain has many paths to victory with all the undecided states.
And on Inanity's America he's replaying Palin and McCain yammering away about how inexperienced, etc. Obama is. Inanity is intellectually incapable of addressing the issues.
Every undecided voter should be required to watch Palin's first T-ball interview with Sean Inanity. It is very revealing. She is actually stoopider than he is! And more bigoted!
I am beginning to wonder - as I drove through rural Michigan today and saw hundreds of McCain signs - if maybe the "racism/poll effect" isn't actually a reverse proposition. There seems to be so much worry that people "say" they'll vote Democratic, but will actually vote for McCain because of latent racism. I think it's actually the reverse: people are afraid to admit they're voting for Obama (because of fear of retribution, etc.)so they present themselves (especially in rural areas and Midwest/Southern suburbs) as Republicans but will in fact vote for Obama in secret. This is something that seems much more plausible in areas such as the Midwest where the economic realities have hit so hard, yet people are afraid to "come out of the closet" as Obama supporters because of his race.
I have aquestion. Was this site around for the 2004 election and if so, how accurate was it in predicting that result? Not just predicting the winner, but how accurate was it in predicting electoral votes and percentage? Does anyone know?
Bonny,
The "win percentage number" is the probability of the candidate winning the electoral votes, for example the overall 94.1% is how often in running 10,000 simulations the result came up with Obama getting enough electoral votes to win. The popular vote chart under the win percentage is the average popular vote each got in the simulations. Popular vote percentages can be much closer.
In other words, the numbers show that the election will be a nailbiting squeaker in a number of states but if the results match what the polls indicate then Obama has a 94.1% chance of winning, even if it is a good chance of just squeaking by.
What makes me nervous is that this is all based on polls, so does not predict the effect of election fraud, illegal disenfranchisement, etc. So get out and vote, and vote early if you are able to! Don't get complacent.
Obama supporters - remember, there's still 3 weeks until the election. Nate's projections are for if the race was held today - it isn't for 23 days. A lot can happen, and the race is almost certain to tighten before then. Obama's not going to head into election day with a 8-10 point national lead - probably more like 5. So don't set yourselves up for a freakout - be optimistic, but keep working hard, right up until the polls close. And don't panic when you see things getting closer in the final days - they usually do.
And McCain sends Palin to Cleveland???? The largest and most staunchly Dem city in Ohio????
Okay, she did go to St. Clairsville today which, by the way, is the home to a large prison and not much else. It's basically in West Virginia . . .
Of course, he gets no support from any Ohio Republicans on his tour. I don't think even DeWine has gotten near him (altho DeWine was booted out last election . . .)
I think they plan their campaign stops based on spit drops that land on the maps as they're screaming at each other at campaign HQ . . .
Second question. What exactly does the tipping point state map mean, and the percentages attached to each state?
While I will be happy (and relieved) to see Obama win, I am also, as a separate matter, curious to see how closely Nate's predictions will square with the results on Election Night.
Send letters to newspapers nation wide. You only have to write one letter and click the newspapers you want it sent to. You can change your zip code and send them all over the country...swing states. One of my letters even got published.
http://pol.moveon.org/lte/lte_t.html?zip=32218<e_campaign_id=97
RCP has the PPP plus 10 for Obama for Colorado listed on this page.
Does this mean it is included in it's daily average?
NOPE it is not highlighted. RCP is biased and excludes it to keep Repub HOPE alive.
diane2628 said...
Obama supporters - remember, there's still 3 weeks until the election. Nate's projections are for if the race was held today - it isn't for 23 days. A lot can happen, and the race is almost certain to tighten before then. Obama's not going to head into election day with a 8-10 point national lead - probably more like 5. So don't set yourselves up for a freakout - be optimistic, but keep working hard, right up until the polls close. And don't panic when you see things getting closer in the final days - they usually do.
October 12, 2008 8:51 PM
From what I understand it is projecting the Nov 4 outcome. Not an outcome if the election was today. In fact, he said that when he was a guest on The Colbert Report. That's a big difference of this site and other websites that capture polling data.
diane2628-
Actually, 94.1% is the chances of an Obama win on November 4 according to Nate's model, not "if the election were held today."
Please read the FAQ's. The closer we get to election day, the less uncertainity there is. Without a major shift, Obama's win percentage should edge up daily.
Here's a serious question that I'm sure someone here will know about--so McCain wants a temporary cut to capital gains tax. Seems to me there just aren't really big capital gains out there with the value of everything tanking--what am I missing???
oct @ 8:26,
Lieberman is not a Democrat - he's an Independent. On many domestic issues (for example, for pro-choice judge nominations) he votes like a Democrat.
There are also a very few moderate Republicans that can be counted on to stand against conservative filibusters. Collins and Snowe are two.
But remember also, because the Democrats don't have a litmus test of purity, there are also several conservative Democrats in the Senate. If there is a tough issue, they might vote conservatively rather than being loyal to party leadership. (I'm not sure if the GA Senate contest victory for the Dems will create a dependably loyal anti-filibuster vote.
Message? The more Democrats, the better....
mc9ain-
Jinx!
thanks oct. I didn't understand the highlighting aspect of it.
Is there a way to contact RCP and question why do they appear to be bias? Also how is it possible that Drudge know what the Zogby Poll will be tomorrow when it isn't release until tomorrow. Should they still be polling tonight?
Can we have a color-coded cartogram? Cartograms are awesome.
I made a cartogram yesterday - bazard's was so out of date ... but it still has the pale blues and pale reds
here's the link: http://www.prairiecomm.net/images/cartogram_10_11_08.gif
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