10.12.2008

On the Road: Troy, Ohio

Sometimes you find the story, and sometimes the story finds you. Troy, Ohio has been hunting me a long time.

It started in college, when a buddy would not shut up about informed us about Troy (hey, Phil). We'd stayed in nearby Tipp City in deep red Miami County, and only popped up to Troy for a hearty Saturday morning breakfast. We'd had different plans for the day, but one minute our blonde waitress wisecracked her way through coffee, hash browns, and dumb-blonde jokes, the next minute Troy had a story for us.

Obama Field Office; Troy, Ohio - BrettMarty.com


The first thing that stands out about the Troy, Ohio Obama field office is its placement. It's right in the heart of town. It catches everyone's attention -- you can't miss it.

The next thing that caught our attention was that, since the office had first opened, 800 different people from Miami County had come through the office's doors to volunteer. There were only 51,760 voters in the entire county in 2004, and a mere 17,606 were Kerry voters.

4.5% of the entire Miami County Kerry vote has already walked in the doors to volunteer.

This is a brand new development. Ed White, a first-time volunteer who spoke to us in the Troy office, said he'd lived here 24 years and had long "felt the stultifying effect of speaking up in a community so Republican." Miami County went for Bush by 32 points in 2004. After that election, there were bitter feelings in an tight-knit area woven together by approximately 33 community organizations and dinner clubs. National issues had split ordinarily more connected people apart, and without Democratic organization, folks like Ed felt isolated.

This year, Ed is volunteering along with everyone else.

How did he get started? I asked. A friend named Margaret Begg had talked to him a handful of times, and soon enough Ed was in the office. "Everybody assumes everybody else is a Republican here," he said. The office location opened things up.

For her part, Begg has helped ignite a Democratic grassroots awakening in Miami County. Jake Schlachter, a Troy native who returned to Ohio to help out in this year's election and who was there for that first meeting, told us he's been amazed to observe his hometown's transformation. Starting from the spring with a group of five around Begg's kitchen table, the grassroots effort grew to 16, then 41, then 85, then over 200. The most inspiring thing Schlachter says he's seen this year is now that Begg and her husband have led this grassroots shift, they're indefinitely suspending plans they'd had to move away. The Beggs want to stay and build the infrastructure.

Peer-to-peer interaction. No stocking capped kids, here, my friends.



As we rolled out of our host's home in Tipp City, just down the road, serendipity found us again. We saw a woman walking with a clipboard in our direction. "Hi, I'm with the Obama campaign," she began. Her name was Sue Hofer, a middle-aged evangelical Christian on her 4th weekend doorknocking tour for Obama. She was a little surprised when we immediately started interviewing her.

Sue told us that she found her way from passive to active by first going to Obama's website. She found her local office and soon attended a nearby house party for which she'd signed up online.

The local organizer, Ian, explained at that meeting that Barack Obama intended to run a grassroots campaign and gave the group several concrete suggestions about what they could do. Soon, Sue hosted her own house party and a team was formed. They phone bank on Wednesday nights and write personalized postcards as follow-ups to voters they'd spoken with at the doors on weekends. For Obama supporters, she and her group thank the supporters for their support and suggest ways for them to plug in if they want to get involved, including Ian's number. For undecideds, they thank the recipients for having taken the time to talk, and offer them more information.

Sue stressed to us that while the campaign gives them reference material along with literature, the language they use to talk to their neighbors is their own. "We're just who we are," Sue says. Unscripted works best. "I live in Tipp City, and I'm a volunteer," she emphasizes to folks at their doors.

(Doesn't much sound like Dean-kids-in-Iowa-2004, does it, Mike?)

A bit down the road in Enon, Ohio, another deep red Ohio area, we found Jessica Ashdown leading a team of canvassers around the neighborhood. A bright, cheerful volunteer with the Wright State Democrats, Jessica has essentially been deputized out of the Beavercreek Obama field office to cover her hometown. Knockers walked in teams in very Republican neighborhoods on the warm early fall afternoon, following the mantra that you can't win if you don't show up.

We tried to go to the McCain office just down the street in Troy at noon on Saturday. At the exact moment we arrived, we found two nice elderly women peering inside the locked, closed office. They'd come to volunteer. Unfortunately, McCain's Troy office isn't open on weekends, according to a sign in the window.

24 days til the election.

Obama Field Office; Troy, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

383 comments

Real Joe said...

Obama/Biden signs are disappearing around the country

there is a shortage of Obama/Biden signs

markedman said...

Mason Dixon Nevada

O-47
M-45

Stephen C. Rose said...

Anyone placing bets on TX for Obama?

Real Joe said...



The Toledo Blade endorses Obama

Link

Real Joe said...

markedman said...
Mason Dixon Nevada

O-47
M-45


McCain coming back

:-)

Derek said...

I think a 2000 McCain isn't different from this one except that he is older and more cautious.

markedman said...

Real Joe


It's MASON DIXON

mc9cain said...

RE: National Polls Daily Tracking

McCain campaign is FLATLINING!! Bring in the paddles errr... I mean Obama smear!

Real Joe said...

markedman said...
Real Joe


It's MASON DIXON


;-)

Real Joe said...



Graham: "we're not going to be intimidated by...race card"

Referring to the comments made by Rep John Lewis yesterday, Senator Graham said "we're not going to be intimidated by this playing the race card...it may have worked with the Clintons but it's not going to work with us."

"We can't be responsible for what one person says at a rally," he added. "But John McCain has never conducted himself to incite hatred."

Mr Wilder responded with, "Senator Graham says they can't be responsible for one person...yet he just put Obama down because of what John Lewis said."

He said the public was looking for a candidate "to put people together rather than divide them."

Mr Wilder also cautioned the Obama campaign "not to be overconfident." He said, "it's not won."

Link

mc9cain said...

Mason Dixon is rated by 538 as the 7th best. Need to see what internals are right? It's not great news - it's just OK news.

Foregone Conclusion said...

Actually, Nate's model rates Mason-Dixon quite well; it's 7th in terms of PIE, ahead of Quinnipiac, PPP, Gallup, Zogby, Strategic Vision... It only has three major pollsters before it, Selzer, SurveyUSA and Rasmussen.

Real Joe said...



Dayton Daily News endorses Obama

Link

markedman said...

wow real joe, you are on top of the newspaper endorsements, any big publications endoring McCain

Did I read recently as well that perhaps even Real Joe might now vote for Obama?

Real Joe said...



First Ellis Island Immigrant Gets Buried Over a Century Later

Obama sends a letter

Link

Christie said...

THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU to Nate and Sean. Your analysis and on the road stories are wonderful! Thank you to everyone who posts their local stories, too. I am in Indpls IN volunteering for Obama and hoping turn IN blue for the first time since 1964. As others have said, we are all a part of history by doing our part. This is America at her best, all of us coming together for an important and common cause! Let's keep it going everyone! Peace!

Foregone Conclusion said...

Fun fact...

Hillary Clinton ran the Carter 1976 campaign in Indiana

Real Joe said...



Is Obama's North Dakota Support Underestimated (Again)

Link


markedman said...

on meet the press they just said former klansman Tiger Knowles endorses Obama

my lord what is happening ?!?!

Charles Crook said...

A thought for the future:

Arizona will gain 2 EVs in the 2012 election, giving it 12. If Obama is the incumbent, will Arizona join with NM, NV and CO? Does anyone have the Hispanic polling breakdowns from the last Rasmussen?

This is presuming that Arizona would not repeat in having a home-state nominee.

Real Joe said...

markedman said...
on meet the press they just said former klansman Tiger Knowles endorses Obama

my lord what is happening ?!?!


CHANGE ?

Derek said...

AZ is more liley to be blue than NV. It has less rural areas. If McCain weren't it's home state then he would lose it.

Derek said...

er, if it (AZ) weren't his home state he probalby wouldn't win it.

Real Joe said...



'The Tennessean' Endorses Obama

Link

Antmatic said...

Saw Bill Kristol on Fox News Sunday this morning. He looked depressed. He is blasting the McCain camp for running a "stupid campaign." He says they should be consistent and forceful with Ayers and Wright or not use it at all. He conceded that in the current form, the Ayers and Wright attacks seem to be backfiring. He keeps saying Palin should be out there more, but he doesn't understand that Palin is the least popular of the 4 principals.

Real Joe said...



The Tennessean is the principal daily newspaper in Nashville, Tennessee, with a circulation area covering 39 counties in Middle Tennessee and eight counties in southern Kentucky.

Circulation

174,073 Daily
232,334 Sunday

Bay Area Resident said...

Huckabees flat tax is even doubly regressive too, because it is only a flat tax for federal income tax, while FICA which is payroll tax stays the same with its cap at around 100K hitting the lower income voters hardest. The Huckabee flat tax will result in those making over 400K paying significantly less than today while lower wage workers pay more.

I am not against flat taxes but I believe they need to roll up FICA in the mix, at that point a flat tax of 10% would result in a massive REDUCTION in an avg workers taxes and an increase for the high earners. Funny repubs don't seem to be interested in that. They maintain the old byline that social security and medicare "are not a tax" even though anybody under 40 will see nothing of those "benefits".

mc9cain said...

From Jason Linkins at HuffPO liveblogging the Sunday talk shows:

..."Meanwhile, James Baker, is, well, a little bit yelly! This is bigger than what the private sector can fix, but don't worry, the sage experts of the Bush administration is on the case. I really am amazed at all the people who suggest, uncritically, that the $700B bailout is going to help, when no one seems to know exactly what is going to happen next, or where all or some of those monies are really going to go. There isn't some disclosed, mapped out plan of attack. I just know some bald dude named Kashkari is going to make these decisions. Is no one stunned by the irony that the guy who's going to allegedly save our economy has the words "cash" and "carry" in his last name? Just me? Anyone? Well, okay."

Gerbie said...

Real Joe

Realy nice to keep us posted on all these endorcements.

Has the time arrived yet for a Real Joe Obama endorcement?

Eric said...

Real Joe said...
markedman said...
Mason Dixon Nevada

O-47
M-45

McCain coming back

:-)


Mason-Dixon seems to be one of the easiest pollsters to measure their bias or lean at least. It's about 2 points Republican relative to the others.

Brother Wolf said...

Sean

Some how I doubt you read all your comments - you have better things to do....

but having said that - if your still in the south west Ohio region...
I'll pay for your dinner - or Lunch - just in the way of thanks for all this amazing work you have been doing. I am in Yellow Springs, Ohio - West of Troy - about an 40 minutes....
http://www.ericwolf.org

Eric

Real Joe said...



Thousands expected at Sarah Palin’s 2nd NH rally

Link

Wa7th said...

Gerbie, a Republican would still get 40% of the vote after eating a live baby, but only 1% if eating an aborted fetus. Once they're born, it's open season. That tells you a lot about the GOP-base.

Akoolromeo said...

markymark said...
McCain was the best package for the GOP in 2008, but I tend to think the McCain the GOP needed was the 2000 brand, the 2008 brand has proved to be tooo close to Bush on the War and nowhere on the economy.

***********
If the McCain today was the 2000 McCain I would be supporting him right now, even though I am a lifelong Democrat. I was supporting him up until July, hoping that he was just catering to the Right to get the nomination, and that he would revert to his old self once nominated, but it hasn't happened. he has pandered so much, switchedhis position so frequently, I have no idea what he really believes in right now. He seems to be more and more like Bush, and not given me any confidecne he could make the next 4 years any diffferent than the last 8. Also, I am concerned that he freely admits he knows very little about economics and how he admitted he wasn't the brighted student in his class in his autobiograhy. I give him credit for being honest, but it doesn't instill confidence in me. I am also concerned who he would put as Secretary of the Treasurty. If he put Phill Gramm in, then we're all doomed. He probably still thinks this recession is in our minds. As someone who doesn't know much abot economics, will he have the wherewithall to challenge his Treasury Secretary on his ideas if he has to, or would he have ablank check to do whatever he wants?
I've always said if McCain got the nomination in 2000, he would have won, and it wouldn't have taken a recount either, because of his appeal to Democratic voters.

MsMike said...

If you want to campaign for Obama in another state, but can’t travel there, you can do some calling. http://my.barackobama.com/modules/votercontact/login_signup.php

If voter fraud or vote suppression is suspected, call the Election Protection Hotline at: 866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-6887-8683). Their Web site is www.866ourvote.org. They also need volunteers.

Election Protection interview:
http://firedoglake.com/2008/10/09/your-right-to-vote-a-chat-with-election-protection-on-2008/

Interesting link about using you cell phone to protect the right to vote: //culturekitchen.com/liza/blog/five_ways_to_guerrilla_broadcasting_with_your_cell

Web site for Election protection WiKi: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Portal:Election_Protection_Wiki
Protecting voter’s rights:
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=protecting_voter_rights

Real Joe said...

gerbie said...
Real Joe

Has the time arrived yet for a Real Joe Obama endorcement?


anything is possible

i was a very strong McCain supporter

prairiecomm said...

real joe - thanks for the articles links! good 'uns

prairiecomm said...

Brother Wolf
antioch is really gone?

Eric said...

I don't mind giving my opponent good advice as a Democrat for one reason. If I have to choose between the Neo-Cons having a 20% chance of beating us in the future or a better more Centrist (Teddy, Nixon, Ike, Bush Sr.) Republican party rise from the ashes and have a 50% chance of beating us in the future, I prefer the latter. I prefer two Centrist parties that are competing for the middle then a dominant Dem party and a fringe crazy Republican party.

So here's the tip:

No matter what the pundits say, the biggest reason for the absolute collapse of support of McCain is not the economy. It's SARAH PALIN!!!!!!!! Yes, Obama was likly to win anyway. Yes, the economy hurts the McCain camp. But, the one reason you have o chance of coming back and flipping the script is there has never been a candidate nominated from a Major Party remotely as poor as Palin in the history of United States election. Understand that her appeal is niche. 20% of the country loves her. That leaves the other 80%. 50% can't stand her! As in, I can't vote for McCain under any circumstances because Sarah aplin is a moron can't stand her. That's right, 50%! Another 30% simply thinks she was a poor choice and McCain drops a peg in their overall view because of the pick. People are paying close attention and that other 80% that aren't the single issue Conservative social values voters look at Palin and know that they can think of at least 10 choices McCain could have made that would have been better including many GOP women. There are many reasons that Palin is a severely flawed candidate that have been delineated here in the past.

Bottomline: Palin Iceberg meet Mccain Titanic!

jan said...

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has a strong Democratic lean (as does Pittsburgh; in our most recent mayoral election, the Republican candidate was the most successful in decades, losing by only 29 points).

We have a second daily paper, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, which has a strong Republican lean; it is the pet project of Richard Mellon-Scaife, who funded the Arkansas Project intended to bring down the Clintons. If the Trib-Review were to endorse Obama, that would be big news.

Darío said...

"McCain needs to catch a bread".

Analysis by Scott Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/mccain_needs_to_catch_a_break_or_else

Real Joe said...

darío said...
"McCain needs to catch a bread".

hahaha

Jason said...

I grew up in Englewood, OH, and have friends and family in Miami County. My sister in law's family lives in Tipp City. I escaped to Portland Oregon and am a little ashamed of myself to see folks who are working so hard in such a Republican area. I left because I couldn't contemplate spending the rest of my life in the place where I grew up, but it makes me feel great to hear what they have accomplished.

Think I'll go put that Amps song on and think about Obama voters in Tipp City.

Real Joe said...



Obama to arrive in Toledo Sunday, staying through Wednesday

Link

Darío said...

Real Joe, Scott Rasmussen said that.

Real Joe said...

darío said...
Real Joe, Scott Rasmussen said that.


i read it

thanks for the link

Gerbie said...

Wa7th said...
Gerbie, a Republican would still get 40% of the vote after eating a live baby, but only 1% if eating an aborted fetus. Once they're born, it's open season. That tells you a lot about the GOP-base.

You are right, I stand corrected.

alison said...

i grew up one town north (6.8 miles) of troy in piqua, oh. my parents voted for bush in both the last two elections. as someone who never seemed to fit there, i can't tell you how exciting it is to me to hear these kinds of things. i wonder if obama has a piqua office...

David said...

"will donate money for every sign stolen" ++

markedman said...

alison, will your parents vote Obama this time?

:)

?

jslater said...

As a Toledo resident and Obama supporter, I'm psyched he's doing his debate prep here. And I'll also offer to buy Sean a meal (or beverage) if he comes up my way.

Curtain Jerker said...

Good morning everyone. Could this be the year the Chicago Tribune endorses a Democrat for the Presidency? The last Dem they endorsed was in 1872...

mc9cain said...

alyssa, STepper and thene,
Thanks for reading about Chambliss and I just want to recoginize your thoughtful and charitable donations to Jim Martin running for Senate in Georgia. I live in Chicago and have nothing directly invested in this cause but like you, I feel the need to do something meaningful and in Chicago it requires reaching out.

Sorry to hog the thread here OT but I'm just going to post what I'm referring to here so those who missed it last night won't have to search back if you are interested.

mc9cain said...
alyssa @9:34:
Chambliss is the lowest of scum. He smeared a sitting U.S. Senator Max Cleland - a decorated and triple amputee from his Viet Nam war wounds by morphing his face in a commercial into Osama bin Laden. I'm not shitting you. This was in 2002 right after 9/11 so the bullshit worked in Georgia. If you can donate to Martin's campaign to help him defeat this ASSHOLE please do. the race is now tied from Jim Martin being plus ten down a month ago. Just look up him on wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxby_Chambliss

To DONATE: http://www.martinforsenate.com/home.html

October 11, 2008 9:56 PM

Deadpixel said...

NV-Pres
Mason-Dixon Aug 24
McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 39%,


NV-Pres
Oct 12 Mason-Dixon
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Marcus Kellis said...

Did you tell the nice elderly women they could go volunteer at the Obama office?

Real Joe said...

marcus kellis said...
Did you tell the nice elderly women they could go volunteer at the Obama office?


hahaha

Real Joe said...



Bill Kristol: McCain running 'stupid campaign'

Link

video included in article

Real Joe said...



Schieffer set to moderate last McCain-Obama debate

Link

pygmy_owl said...

Eric: To be honest, I don't think it's Sarah Palin, though she helps. I really think the biggest problem for the McCain camp is McCain. I think this goes even deeper than his charisma issues. He has been so wishy-washy with his various responses to the economic collapse, that it is clear to even the disengaged citizen that he doesn't have a clue about how to handle it.

That's not to say that anybody has any _clear_ idea how to handle it, but there are some interesting and promising proposals being floated around by serious economists like Paul Volcker, Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong, and others. Obama at least had the insight to recognize that these finance questions really _are_ above his pay-grade, and that the best way to address the problem is (a) not to panic and (b) to get advice from these folks. He has been a steel girder throughout this whole crisis, where McCain has been flailing like a flounder on the dock. It's astonishing to watch. I hadn't realized that McCain was _so_ feckless.

Real Joe said...



McCain to Spend Upcoming Week in Gotham City

Link

Foregone Conclusion said...

I prefer Real Joe News to Real Joe Polling

Real Joe said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Curtain Jerker said...

Real Joe -

23 Days left before the election and he's going on the Late Show? Methinks that's a bit like closing the barn door after the horses have already fled.

ialex said...

McCain to Spend Upcoming Week in Gotham City

Great!

Real Joe said...



OBAMA WOULD OFFER JOHN MCCAIN A JOB

Link

Real Joe said...

?foregone conclusion said...
I prefer Real Joe News to Real Joe Polling


no more Real Joe polling from me

we closed down the Real Joe daily tracker

mc9cain said...

Obama gets the newspaper endorsements and McCain gets NASCAR. Richard Petty endorses him (but the words read like they were written for a republican pundit not a real person lol).

I found this on the McCain website and no others are listed.
http://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/PressReleases/5329cd50-8939-44c4-b900-0c27254c2457.htm

Real Joe said...



McCain's closing argument: A push for divided government?

Link

Real Joe said...




Virginia GOP Chairman claims “connection between Obama and bin Laden”

Link


Brad said...

Yup, this was talked about Friday by the pundits - the last best shot is to say all democrats in office are scary. This is really a play for house and senate folks, it won't amtter much at the top of the ticket.

Is McCain throwing in the towel and the RNC going to focus on saving the filibuster in the Senate (e.g keeps dems under 60)?

Brad said...

LOL! VA chairman lying.

"Somewhere in America a conservative is lying"

momo said...

I started coming to this site for the numbers, but I keep coming back for the stories. Not just the road trip stories, which are marvelous, but also the ones you all are sharing in the comments. I have my own anecdotes, but it's heartening to read that they represent something bigger than the usual party politics. My mother, who is 75, went with some friends to knock on doors for Obama in Carson City, Nevada.It was not just about the people she was talking to, it was transformative for her. My buddies tell me that when they talk to Obama supporters, everyone wants to tell their story. They are fired up. Every conversation, every human contact, makes a difference.

Foregone Conclusion said...

But independents don't come into an election period with the belief that all Democrats are flip-flopping, arugula-munching, latte-sipping, Communistic, godless liberals. Sure, they may have some preconceptions, but the GOP propaganda is rarely against the entire Democrat brand, but rather says 'Candidate X is a radical liberal.' Trying to hit the whole Democratic party won't work.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

"Is McCain throwing in the towel and the RNC going to focus on saving the filibuster in the Senate (e.g keeps dems under 60)?"

Hopefully not. I'd rather take a 300 EV Obama win and a 60 seat Senate than a 375 EV Obama win and a 58 seat senate.

Charles Crook said...

"
OBAMA WOULD OFFER JOHN MCCAIN A JOB
"
A task, more than a job:


Mr McCain will not be offered a cabinet job, but Mr Obama may ask him to spearhead a bipartisan overhaul of veteran's affairs, an issue close to Mr McCain's heart.

fiatluxury said...

curtain jerker - no way, about the Tribune/Dem endorsement. If they endorse O, I will 1) eat my hat, 2) ready myself for next world series which the Cubs will surely win, and 3) sharpen up my iceskates, because hell will truly have frozen over.

the hometown advantage will be that they don't endorse anyone at all. Once O's ensconced in the Oval Office, he'll get no free pass. The penalty? The Sun Times will FOREVER have the ultimate I-told-ya-so. Ha!

pHaestus said...

Real Joe said:
Bill Kristol: McCain running 'stupid campaign'


Didn't he just follow most of Bill Kristol's stupid suggestions?

For what it's worth, I went from "happy no matter who wins that someone better than Bush will be president" before the Palin pick to donating money to Obama when the "Palin Southern Hatefest 08 Tour" started last week. I think there are a LOT of 30-40 year olds who are like me.

Real Joe said...



Surrounding West Virginia

(WVMetroNews)

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia are getting a lot of attention from two Presidential campaigns.

On Sunday, Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin flew into Tri-State Airport near Huntington before a day long tour of Ohio. That tour included stops in Gallipolis and Marietta before a campaign rally Sunday evening in St. Clairsville, Ohio which is located near Wheeling.

On Monday, the Alaska Governor was scheduled to join Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain in Virginia Beach, Virginia before going on to an event in Richmond, Virginia. Palin will be in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

Tuesday marks three weeks until Election Day.

On Tuesday, Democrat Vice Presidential Candidate Joe Biden will make three stops in Ohio. He'll start in Warren, Ohio and then visit Ohio University's Eastern Campus in St. Clairsville, Ohio before wrapping up the day in Marietta, Ohio.

Biden joined former President Bill Clinton and New York Senator Hillary Clinton in Scranton, Pennsylvania for a rally on Sunday. Hillary Clinton was set to lead a rally on behalf of Democrat Presidential Candidate Barack Obama on Monday in Horsham, Pennsylvania.

Early voting in West Virginia begins on Wednesday. The final Presidential Debate will be held that night at Hofstra University.

Link

Real Joe said...

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 49, McCain 41

Curtain Jerker said...

I'm with you fiatluxury re: The Trib.

They'll endorse McCain and say something about his "long record of bipartisanship" and how "pragmatic" he is when he "reaches across the aisle" and other tripe that those of us who have been paying attention for more than 30 seconds knows isn't anywhere near to reality.

P.S. How's that for a run-on?

Mike Durham NC said...

Sarah Palin being boo'ed by the Flyers fans... priceless !!!

ialex said...

"Mr McCain will not be offered a cabinet job, but Mr Obama may ask him to spearhead a bipartisan overhaul of veteran's affairs, an issue close to Mr McCain's heart."

McCain is awful on veteran's affairs. I'd hope Obama could find someone better.

fiatluxury said...

@curtain jerker: You speak Palinese!

Brian said...

Could someone please enlighten me as to where/when the "GREAT NEWS!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!" meme originated?

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

I wouldn't have boo'd at Palin even though I'm from Philly. I mean, I hate her politics and everything she stands for, but right there she was just being a hockey mom. =)

Foregone Conclusion said...

Brian,

There used to be this troll called 'CONGRATULATIONS TO PRESIDENT ELECT MCCAIN!!!!' who used to say that about everything. He first appeared at the height of the Palin bounce, so now Obama is rolling in popularity, it has a newly ironic zing.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...
This post has been removed by the author.
couchpotatoxxx12 said...

What the hell? RCP has the PPP Colorado O+10 on their "Latest Polls", but not on their average. O_o Is that what is supposed to happen?

Real Joe said...



BREAKING NEWS

FBI agents say powder sent to a California Barack Obama campaign office, a newspaper and a theater tested negative for hazardous materials.

Letters containing the powder were sent last week to an Obama for President office in the Los Angeles neighborhood of Palms, to the offices of the Los Angeles Times and to the McCallum Theater in Palm Desert, said Laura Eimiller, an FBI spokeswoman.

The letter to the Times was addressed to two reporters and carried no return address. "Save the Babies" was handwritten on the envelope's front and "Kill All Obama Supporters" was written on the back of the envelope, which contained a granular substance, said Times Security Manager Larry Belkin.

The letter was similar to the ones delivered to the Obama office and the theater, said FBI officials

Brad said...

McCain's plan was to screw veterans.

Lets send John back to his in Sedona to treat his wife porly, you know, back to what he was doing before the race began.

Curtain Jerker said...

fiatluxury, that was a bit of a low blow...kidding.

Real Joe said...

"Save the Babies" was handwritten on the envelope's front and "Kill All Obama Supporters" was written on the back of the envelope, which contained a granular substance, said Times Security Manager Larry Belkin

omg

justaguy8282 said...

From the Mason-Dixon Nevada (O 47, M 45) write up:

In the August poll, McCain led Obama by a 46 percent to 39 percent margin, with 15 percent undecided.

"Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama," noted Mark Peplowski, a political scientist at the College of Southern Nevada. Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama.

"All other things being equal, undecideds tend to swing toward the candidate they view as an instrument of change," he said. "If you were to take another survey this weekend, you would probably find an even bigger bump for Obama."

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Gallup:

Obama 50
McCain 43
O+7

fiatluxury said...

Real Joe - link on that powder to Obama's office story, por favor?

Brad said...

Politico:

McCain makes risky play for PA.

PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican for president since 1988. Democrats have increased their registration numbers here by more than a half-million over the past year, and Barack Obama has a double-digit lead in the polls.

Yet John McCain's campaign continues to signal that it intends to contest the state and its 21 electoral votes to the end. It is a high-risk, high-return endeavor: Pennsylvania represents a costly gambit, one that siphons resources from must-win states such as Ohio and Florida, but a win here would enable McCain to lose a few other states that George W. Bush carried and still capture the White House.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14495.html




Keep spending John!

Shawn said...

Gallup Daily

Obama - 50
McCain - 43

Was O+9 Yesterday

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Apparently McCain hasn't been paying attention to the PA polls. All double digits. Accompany that with the fact that Bush was ahead in 2004 in PA and still lost, he has no hope.

Brad said...

Is Gallup a leading poll, a lagging poll, or just weird? It never seems to follow the others. Gallup is showing the race tighter today, by 2.

Real Joe said...

McCain coming back

mc9cain said...

Does anyone know when the Chicago Trib endorses each year? What a conundrum for them. A local boy makes good (and makes sense) and the Republican opponent making no sense and metaphorically wandering thru his campaign the past 2 months. ("Mr Puddles, Mr. Puddles I have snausages" lol)

BTW, they endorsed both during the primaries.

Joey said...

Wolf Blitzer just claimed Montana is too close to call now.

Brian Schweitzer was also on talking about MT having Ron Paul on the ballot and being a traditionally third party state. I believe he said Bill Clinton won the state with only 38% of the vote.

Any thoughts on this and how it could affect MT's polling numbers?

Brad said...

The Tribune will be interesting, they do have cover to pick Obama now as the Washington establishment turns on John, but will they?

Brad said...

I have said several times that MT polling without Paul is worthless in MT.

Real Joe said...

fiatluxury said...
Real Joe - link on that powder to Obama's office story, por favor?


Link

DCM in FL said...

GALLUP is throwing even more 'noise' into the mix today by releasing three - count 'em 3 - different results in their tracker

RV 50-43 [same as 1 week ago]
LV #1 50-46 [using historic model]
LV #2 51-45 [new 2008 adjusted model]

talk about noise,but nice lead above the MOE for Obama no matter how they try to slice it.

Gallup is back to trying to push the narrative that this is a close, toss-up race...

hard to change an ol' dawg...

Darío said...

Likely voters is 51-45 Obama in Gallup.

Antmatic said...

Gallup has shown tightening various times this year when nothing was happening in other trackers, so nothing really to see there.

I'm more concerned with Obama staying at or above 50% of the vote, which he is doing in Gallup.

Interesting is Gallup's likely voter screen

50-43, registered voters

50-46, likely voter screen 1

51-45, likely voter screen 2

So Obama is either up 7, up 4, or up 6, depending on what screen you use.

Hotline Diageo shows using their likely boter screen increases Obama's lead.

fiatluxury said...

gracias!

Subterranean said...

Hah, what good will flipping Pennsylvania be for McCain if (when) he loses Florida?

Real Joe said...



Many Republicans ask: Where's McCain's TV presence?

Link

mc9cain said...

Brian
I think it started during the primaries when Hillary had a huge lead nationally starting off and then everything trended Obama. So every poll that would come out the snark refrain was, "THAT'S GREAT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!"

My guess is that it started on Daily Kos.

Real Joe said...

=darío said...
Likely voters is 51-45 Obama in Gallup.


ok

Antmatic said...

I think that, hopefully, this stuff will prove that the likely voter screen is a pollster estimate more than anything else.

Vanessa said...

The race always seems to tighten approaching the debate.

Both Hotline and Rasmussen tightened as well so it appears as though we are tightening a bit.

Real Joe said...



McCain backers raise spectre of total Democratic control

Link

Antmatic said...

It looks like RCP is using Gallup's registered voters number. Interesting, I thought for sure they's use the 50-46 number.

markymark said...

I am not saying the 2000 McCain is someone I approved of, but he did have proper bi-partisan appeal (IIRC he lead Gore more convinvgly in matchups than Bush did, through the primary season in 2000.) To me McCain is and always was the closest thing to a Reagan Republican since Reagan, especially economically and on foreign policy (which are after all the major battlegrounds this time out). McCain's biggest drawback to me is that he is a partisan Republican, for all his talk of working acroos the aisle. As a less dogmatic figure than say Gingrich, he doesn't need to associate with Republicans, but has chosen to do so, only seemingly crossing the aisle when it suits him.

meconella said...

""I wouldn't have boo'd at Palin even though I'm from Philly. I mean, I hate her politics and everything she stands for, but right there she was just being a hockey mom. =)""

I must disagree. Her appearance at the game was totally political and geared to give her more free air-time while looking 'wholesome' and 'American'.

I think the fact she brought her daughter with her onto the ice in a Flyers jersey -to prevent booing- was using her child in a cold, calculating way.

With just more than 3 weeks to go, the ambitious Palin does nothing that isnt totally focused on winning votes.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

It's pretty sad when republicans are happy about their candidate being ONLY 7 points behind. lmao

DCM in FL said...

COUCH

yeah, the race is 'tightening'

lol...around MacPalin's necks

grandpa john said...

Remember these tracking polls are 3 day averaged polls, what it could also mean is that the day that dropped off, thursday , was an extremely good polling day for Obama

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Also, yes, the polls are going to tighten. The general consensus before election day will likely be Obama + 4-5.

Brad said...

RCP is completely idiotic. They use the topline number period - no matter if it is RV, LV, or BS.

Daniel said...

McCain is not coming back but we will continue to see a tightening in the polls. The Obama ground game is now too strong for McCain to overcome. In a 50/50 country, I find it difficult to believe that Obama will win by 10 points. I think Rasmussen has the state of the race nailed spot-on -- Obama is probably +6 right now nationally.

Look at the Electoral College -- even if McCain can close it to Obama +2 or +3, Obama will still win Kerry + IA, NM and CO for over 269 EV's plus add on VA and FL for insurance.

Final national spread will likely be similar to Bush I vs Clinton in 1992 -- UNLESS, we get hit with a terrorist attack.

slicknickshady said...

I'm willing to bet Obama is back up to like +9 in the Gallup poll tomorrow.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

The polls will tighten about this time next week, because after the final debate, a lot of the undecided voters really won't have a lot of reasons to be undecided anymore.

DCM in FL said...

and some of the trackers like HOTLINE have such a tiny sample that they are extremely volatile

plus the weighting by the pollster makes all the difference

Hotline was only DEM +4 today - WTF

all just marketing 'tools'

they all have no reason to exist IF the race is a runaway, so expect the polls to appear to 'tighten' over the next few weeks or they become irrelevant

especially Zogby, RR, Gallup & Hotline

R2000 is the only poll that seems to be truly independent - just expensed by DailyKos

while their party ID spread at DEM +9 might be a bit high by historical standards, that is probably closer to reality than RR +6 or those using a lower spread like Zogby

BTW - as far as I can tell only R2000 is giving us the 4 regional breakouts. have no idea if any of the others weight their poll aamples using state or regional weighting - but to not do so is poor modeling.

I have heard that Gallup in particular oversamples from the South & Red states but the internals are kept hidden - unlike in R2000 where EVERYTHING is transparent...

Ram said...

I was very disappointed to see this post in 538.com... I love you guys for summarizing the stats about election polls, but this post was out of the blue.

How can I now trust your models of prediction, when you yourself are openly partisan? Should I apply a discount factor in the Obama prediction?

Or at least, you could say: well seeing the Obama offices full, and McCain offices empty, I adjusted the model like this... But instead, you wrote a feel good piece about "empty dry McCain offices", and the 4.5% who volunteered... How are you different from Fox News predictions?

I feel you guys had been doing a good and neutral job, but now I suspect it was just wishful thinking. I am an independent voter tired of partisanship and promises... Why couldn't you stick o the original point of your nice site?

Akoolromeo said...

couchpotatoxxx12 said...
The polls will tighten about this time next week, because after the final debate, a lot of the undecided voters really won't have a lot of reasons to be undecided anymore.

*******
This morning I saw the breakdown of the undecided voters. According ot the poll of undecided, 75% of them are white, less enthusiastic about the candidates, disinterested and uneducated. Given those dynamics, I wouldn't be surprise if 75% of undecided go to McCain in the end.
Several months ago, I saw a study or stat, whatever you want to call it that said the average Democratic voter was college educated, while the average Republican was only High School educated.
Obviously that is a general statement, since there are highly educated Republicans, just like there are stupid Democratic voters as well, but it was interesting, since Republicans like to protray the Democrats as the party of stupid people, particularly in my neck of the woods.

Natalie said...

Nate and Sean have always been open about their support for Obama. I believe it's in the site's FAQ. And this post did not come "out of the blue;" it is part of a series on the ground game in swing states. Though they are Obama supporters, they've been very open to the idea that McCain's campaign is running a good but "quiet" ground game--which is true in some places (Nevada) but less true in others (Ohio).

Vanessa said...

ram,

Nate has always expressed his support for Obama.

His numbers have also been dead on the money.

Seth said...

I'm not sure, isn't McCain's GOTV like how it usually is for most campaigns? Obama's effort is huge by comparison, and it might be uniquely so; however, I wonder how many points it moves. The difference in volunteer efforts is disproportionate to the difference in polls, right? The volunteer effort is awesome, but as an Obama supporter, it's not enough to keep me from being nervous. However, I wouldn't want to be a McCain supporter in this environment.

Natalie said...

I think Republicans would say that being educated doesn't make you smart.

GregM said...

akoolromeo said: ...Republicans like to protray the Democrats as the party of stupid people, particularly in my neck of the woods.

Where is this?

Subterranean said...

Axelrod bitch-slaps Davis on FOX. Nobody should be worried that the Obama campaign will hesitate to fight fire with fire if it's necessary.

Akoolromeo said...

Natalie said...
I think Republicans would say that being educated doesn't make you smart.

***********
If that was true, then that would make Republicans stupid. I'm currently reading Thomas Freidman's book The World is Flat, which is making the case that part of our problem is we're falling behind the rest of the world in among other things education. When we have Romanian parents complaining to the school that their 5th grader isn't getting any lessons in science, like they were in Romania, or that what is being taught to their high school in science is highly inadequate, compared to Romania, then I think we have serious problems in our educational system. He said U.S. parents seem to be only be concerned their child's school is better than the one up the street, and that it's not too challenging, as to interfere with their child's opportunity to be a kid. The problem in the future is we're no longer competing with other Americans for jobs, but the rest of the world, so our educational system has to be exceptional enough to give our children an opportunity to compete.

Gary said...

To praphrase Patton:

You know why I know their losing,
Signs, They are stealing our signs

Akoolromeo said...

GregM said...
akoolromeo said: ...Republicans like to protray the Democrats as the party of stupid people, particularly in my neck of the woods.

Where is this?

*********
Florida. My boss refers to Democrat as Dumocrat. It hasn't been as bad as after the 2000 election, when it was really bad around here.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Conservatards are the dumb ones. Just LOOK at their base.

Brad said...

ram-

Feel free to leave. The number are non-partisan, but go to freerepublic and feel better if you wish.

There is a difference between liking a candidate, and showing, and being biased. Fox is biased, 538 is not.

Akoolromeo said...

slicknickshady said...
I'm willing to bet Obama is back up to like +9 in the Gallup poll tomorrow.

October 12, 2008 12:23 PM

**********
I wouldn't count on it, if their recent trends remain true. The lead was 9 yesterday, and I noticed about 5 days before each debate, the Obama tickets losses 2 points per day, until the debate, and then it starts increasing 2 points per day, until it reaches the ceiling, and then starts declining again.

Brad said...

Education teaches you more than facts, it teaches you to think. It takes an ability to think and analyze to come to correct conclusions, this is why educated folks are strongly Democratic - not because they are smart, but because they can think.

Brad said...

Being samrt is like having the genetic ability to be fast, but never taking to the track or running. Education is like running for the mind, it stretches and improves it. Educated people are largely deomcratic, the most educated states are blue.

Todd Dugdale said...

Looking at Gallup's trend in voter preference by ideology, we see that Obama has gained 3 points with "moderate Democrats" and 3 points with "Liberal/Moderate Republicans" since McCain's convention bounce lead. McCain lost 6 points among "pure independents" during that period. All of the other trend changes among other ideological groups were within a point. Analysing this trend can shed light on how McCain's steep drop from his bounce came about.

This trend indicates two things to me: that Palin's appeal was largely limited to the base, and that smears won't trump the economy as an issue this election.

Any "comeback" for McCain will, most likely, see an 'identical' rebound in these ideological groups. McCain, however, seems set in the strategy that got him into this position with those same ideological groups.

Obama has also gained six points among white women and five points among white men since McCain's convention bounce. This further indicates that the smears are not having a strong racist effect.

Obama has also gained five points in the West, putting to bed petekent's prediction that Palin's selection will allow McCain to make big gains in that region.
Also interesting is that Obama gained four points in the South, which is supposed to be the GOP's firewall.

So these are the demographics that have deserted McCain since he once rode high atop a lead of five points in Gallup.

Mark said...

I tend to agree that the country will not be served well by a collapsed Republican party. Perhaps I am a bit of a centrist but I do think a weak GOP is a bad thing.

The emergence of Palin does threaten to turn the party into a fringe element. To me she is like one of those CAPS LOCK commandos that you see online ranting talking points straight from Rush and Hannity who has somehow escaped the virtual world and entered Meat Space.

Old school conservatives such as dick Lugar, Bush Sr and even, to an extent, Gingrich seem to be a dying breed and we are left with Jean Schmidts, Sarah Palins nd Rudy Giulianis all of whom practice the politics of personal destruction.

Nobody like that will do anything to check any excessive tendencies by the democrats, should they arise.

slicknickshady said...

We will wait and see but I bet the gallup numbers go up for obama tomorrow. I don't see his gallup lead dropping below 6. If anything it might be 50-44 tomorrow for Obama but thats the worst case imo.

fiatluxury said...

Ram, I have to concur with everyone here - you maybe haven't seen the other "on the road" pieces Sean (not Nate) have written, but regardless of the op-ed flavor of these, the numbers, and most importantly the transparency of Nate's method, are unimpeachable. (Note: I wouldn't know a weighted average from a hole in the ground, but I have this on good authority from the rabid math geeks who directed me here so I'd quit asking them stupid questions.)

Of course you must judge for yourself; just know that objective analysis and subjective opinion cohabitate in every person, and the best you can find is someone who will at least cop to that, show his data, and let you draw your own conclusions.

gougef said...

Remember, I think that last weekend may have been the first time that Obama didn't lose noticeable ground during the weekend in Gallup.

Some of the fall back maybe the weekend de-bounce this week.

mc9cain said...

the Chicago Tribune endorsed Bush on Oct 17 in 2004 so it should be out next week for their endorsement this year.

I wouldn't be surprised if they endorsed Obama for no reason other than $$$ --keeping their paper business alive. Stupidity would be endorsing McCain.

A little story about the wrath they received by endorsing Bush.
http://perquackey.com/endorsement_10212004.pdf

Alyssa said...

Ok so to recap the last 24 hours:

-Stolen Obama yard signs are making people put 20 up now

-KKK endorses Obama

-Palin gets booed at HOCKEY game while someone holds Obama/Biden sign in background of photo op

-McCain gets the smack down from one of his "wise men" Lewis

-Obama is linked to Osama

I don't think you could have a funnier/sadder/crazier election.



**I really really love everyones personal stories. It makes the numbers more 3-D, and me so proud.

Pyre said...

The implications of Republican complacency worry me.

It's as if they're confident that, no matter how many actual voters go Democratic, the final ballot counts on Nov. 4 will *still* favor the GOP.

Which could mean that either the disenfranchisement of Democratic voters has been secured in advance, or the vote-counting systems themselves have been securely rigged.

In view of the last two fiascos, is the national Democratic Party at least taking serious measures this year to ensure that all legitimate voters get to vote, and that all legitimate ballots get honestly counted and honestly reported -- so we don't get shafted again?

Or should I blindly trust, grin a gap-toothed grin, and just take that for granted?

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

If this election turns out like 2000, there will be riots. a lot of them.

Todd Dugdale said...

brian wrote:
Could someone please enlighten me as to where/when the "GREAT NEWS!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!" meme originated?

Back in the days of yore (the Democratic primaries) it was common on blogs to find that stories about the campaign would have comments of "This is GREAT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!", or something virtually identical.

The trolls here adopted it, possibly to indicate some PUMAish sentiment.

Curtain Jerker said...

I imagine the Trib won't endorse anyone before they endorse Obama. If they endorse McCain they accept the way the Straight Talk Express has driven into the gutter.

Real Joe said...



Obama did not ask to delay security agreement, Iraqi FM says

Link

mc9cain said...

Check out this chart that shows the IQ average compared to how each state voted in 2004. Yikes.

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/US-Election-IQ2004.htm

pi09 said...

great site and been following this for months now. my first post:

I lived in Youngstown, Ohio for 4 years in mid 80's. The steel industry was just devastated at that time. Haven't been back there but I love the place and its people. Any feeback from the Tri-State area (Pa/Ohio/WV) especially Mahoning county would make my couch potato life here in SoCal more lifelike ~!
Thank you guys.

Hank said...

> McCain, however, seems set in
> the strategy that got him into
> this position with those same
> ideological groups.

What's the saying, "If you get in bed with the Devil, you'd better be prepared to ****."

McCain hitched his cart to the far right's horse when he picked Palin. He can not change now - all the other horses are long gone. In the words of Shel Silverstein, "Beware of being the roller when there's nothin' left to roll."

> I tend to agree that the country
> will not be served well by a
> collapsed Republican party.
> Perhaps I am a bit of a centrist
> but I do think a weak GOP is a
> bad thing.

The existence (and acceptance) of a "loyal opposition" is one of the most important pillars of a functioning democracy. It forces a modicum of debate and examination of the issues and moderates the decisions. When opposition becomes synonymous with "treason" (as so well-practiced over the past eight years), there is no debate, no moderation, and bad things happen.

Nevertheless, the Republican party has thoroughly disgraced itself and is riven by internal fractures as the traditional conservatives finally wake up to the yahoos and con-men with which they are in bed - see saying above.

After Obama gives them a good thumping on Nov 4, there will some heated back-room discussions at RNC HQ about future of the party. My prediction is that the moderate wing of the party, such as remains, will leave since they don't have the leverage to resume control of the party, even though it clearly has to abandon its more ill-considered policies. The Democratic party, if it can break free of the thrall in which it will hold itself, can rescue those lifeboats full of moderate former Republicans and cement its standing in the American electorate for a generation. If they do not, the lifeboat may come ashore in the land of the Libertarians or perhaps in an entirely unihabited territory to found a new party. At any rate, the remaining Republicans will hold on until they slowly rust away, another failed political party that spent too much time gazing upon its own beauty in the mirror.

Real Joe said...

new thread

Natalie said...

I agree with you guys. I agree that a good education will make you much more open-minded. I'm just saying that a lot of Republicans don't think that way. Yes, a quality education teaches you how to think. But education can also indoctrinate you if you don't learn critical thinking skills at home.

I went to both public and private schools and my public school education didn't put much focus on critical thinking and analysis. Public schools put a lot in to teaching you how to fill out a form correctly. I went to an excellent university, but both professors and staff were openly political, which is fine, but it does influence the tone of a class. Professors have tremendous authority, and if you're not confident in your own political views, it's easy to be persuaded that you are wrong (of course, it's likely you are). A crappy college education teaches you that objective reality is a concept and morality is a word. That may be true, but it's an attidute that contributes to apathy and depression, neither of which are good for individuals or society.

Second, college is not for everyone. In this economic climate, going to trade school and/or learning a skill is a wise decision. In some cases it may show excellent analytical ability, discernment, and maturity. A lot of teenagers go to college because they don't know what to do with their lives or because they don't want to grow up and provide for themselves. Many of them aren't ready for college; some of them will never be ready. I was a great prospect for college, did very well, and got a top-notch education in a field that I love. But I'm likely to spend a large part of my life either poor and in debt or trapped in a job I hate. Wise decision? I don't know yet.

Again, I'm not supporting those Republicans who seem to view a great education as a personality flaw. I value my education and I'm glad I studied political science--I would have been a dreadful business major. I personally think that if you wanted to dramatically change the world, the best thing you could do was ensure that every child got at least a basic education. But it's arrogant and bigoted to presume that a political party is "better" because more college-educated people are a part of it. The principles of modern American conservatism have a long intellectual tradition and a solid logical foundation*. I disagree with it on several points, and the "base" of the Republican party may not often articulate it, but it's there if you have an open mind.

*Let's leave a discussion of modern religious/social conservatism for another time.

David said...

"Mr McCain will not be offered a cabinet job, but Mr Obama may ask him to spearhead a bipartisan overhaul of veteran's affairs, an issue close to Mr McCain's heart."

What a crock!

McCain has given the finger to vets every chance he gets. It is close to his soulless heart because he sees it as a drain from the government's stream of money into the pockets of the rich.

David said...

"McCain coming back"

Joe, you keep saying that, but do you really want that to happen?

After all the BS Caribou Barbie and McCain have pulled over the past few weeks, do you really want him in the White House?

Real Joe said...



McCain could still win Florida: GOP Congressman

Link

laura said...

KoolHerc73,
Someone I know through another forum has had her Obama sign stolen more than once, and came up with the following solution: She stuck small American flags in the ground surrounding the sign and also attached her own message to the Obama sign: "For every sign you steal, I will donate $50 to the Obama campaign." She has had no problems since. ;)

Mr. Six said...

Nate, Sean:

On Sundays, instead of visiting McCain's offices, please try going to some of the local evangelical churches to find out whether the canvassing is happening from there. I really want to know if the the organizational technique that helped beat Kerry is slipping below the radar this cycle, as well. Otherwise, another nice report.

Real Joe said...




Top McCain adviser insults supporters: We’re not responsible for the ‘occasional nut.’

“I think there have been quite a few reporters recently,” said Mr. McCain’s closest adviser, Mark Salter, “who have sort of implied, or made more than implications, that somehow we’re responsible for the occasional nut who shows up and yells something about Barack Obama.”

Link


Akoolromeo said...

mc9cain said...
Check out this chart that shows the IQ average compared to how each state voted in 2004. Yikes.

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/US-Election-IQ2004.htm
*******
I was surprised Florida finished as high as it did, considering Florida is ranked 50th in education by one ranking I saw 8 years ago. New Jersey was first. Also, this year Miami was named the stupidiest city in the country. They were also named for the second year in a row worst drivers in the country. (I think there is a co-relation there. Boston finished second for the second straight year in tworst drivers category.) Hialeigh finished second in the mid town category of stupiest city category. With all that stupidity located in the most populated area of the 4th most populated state, how did Florida's average IQ reach 98? ha
For the record, Seattle was named smartest city in that same study.

Real Joe said...



Hilary, Jill, Joe, Bill Rally in PA

Link

someperson718 said...

What I truly wish to understand are if this grassroots work is putting the polls in Obama's favor NOW or are they still not being accounted for. Time will tell methinks, time will tell.

iN2TheROSES said...

This blog is such a great read. I kind of wish the election would go on forever if that meant getting to read these great posts about it.

apollodorus said...

Hey, I've been to Troy, OH. Nice place.

meconella said...

In my neck of the woods, the Clinton/Biden campaign tv coverage (from Scranton) event is just now starting on C-span.

Katie said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Katie said...

Great post. I'm a volunteer team leader for a small town in western PA. For all of you who live in blue states and would like to do something to help the Obama campaign besides donate money check out the Obama website. Link to "action" and you can call undecided voters in swing states. This helps people like me on the ground to meet our call goals. The website gives ideas about what to say, and you enter the information about the voter as you call - it couldn't be easier. Thanks for helping!

NC_voter said...

RWC

You 'cons really are dumb pieces of shit, aren't you?

Tell me a scenario where someone would lie to a ROBOTIC POLLSTER about voting for obama?

In fact, as per the primaries, the REVERSE bradley affect will help Obama win NC and VA. The only states where the regular effect might show up is the rustbelt, where Obama is leading well over +10 in each.

Your the one who's gonna be cryin' like a girl on election night.

President Barack Hussein Obama. get used to saying it.

Ed,Moderator CPE said...

I'm so glad you wrote this about Troy because it has become an extended neighborhood for our household. You see, my better half works as a RN at Upper Valley Medical Center in Troy, Ohio. She wears her Obama pins and have about 80% of her staff votes Democratic.

Imagine my surprise when she told me a few weeks ago of the opening of the offices for Sen. Obama in the heart of Troy. We both knew how conservative the place was, but for Obama to open an office there (let alone a black candidate to boot) was a major thing for the two of us.

We're doing our part here in the North Dayton Region for Obama (Huber Heights) and lets just say we'll turn this section of Ohio blue before long.

terracognita said...

The McCain office in Troy is closed on weekends because it's nappy time. Either that or the volunteer (singular) needs to run his/her errands on the weekend and has to lock up. ;-)

Bonney said...

My husband decided on a tactic for 'shy people' (anyone remember this from Prarie Home Companion). Anyway he spent $$$$$ on a bunch of signs. We were going to offer/distribute them just on our small residential street and we did just enough to balance out the McCain signs. But the bulk of the signs went, instead, to a large and very busy commute street. I was amazed how positively people responded. It was very rewarding. I know I know, it isnt as important as talking to undecided folks but at least its something.

My (also shy) daughter decided to use her art skills and painted a large Obama window mural for the dem headquarters in (rural) Marion, Ohio. The dem headquarters is thriving! in that traditionally red community. She merged his usual theme with the Ohio Seal! Was that similarity planned by the campaign. The fit is as perfect as OhioObama08.

egapre said...

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平平 said...

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平平 said...

^^ very nice

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