10.12.2008

On the Road: Troy, Ohio

Sometimes you find the story, and sometimes the story finds you. Troy, Ohio has been hunting me a long time.

It started in college, when a buddy would not shut up about informed us about Troy (hey, Phil). We'd stayed in nearby Tipp City in deep red Miami County, and only popped up to Troy for a hearty Saturday morning breakfast. We'd had different plans for the day, but one minute our blonde waitress wisecracked her way through coffee, hash browns, and dumb-blonde jokes, the next minute Troy had a story for us.

Obama Field Office; Troy, Ohio - BrettMarty.com


The first thing that stands out about the Troy, Ohio Obama field office is its placement. It's right in the heart of town. It catches everyone's attention -- you can't miss it.

The next thing that caught our attention was that, since the office had first opened, 800 different people from Miami County had come through the office's doors to volunteer. There were only 51,760 voters in the entire county in 2004, and a mere 17,606 were Kerry voters.

4.5% of the entire Miami County Kerry vote has already walked in the doors to volunteer.

This is a brand new development. Ed White, a first-time volunteer who spoke to us in the Troy office, said he'd lived here 24 years and had long "felt the stultifying effect of speaking up in a community so Republican." Miami County went for Bush by 32 points in 2004. After that election, there were bitter feelings in an tight-knit area woven together by approximately 33 community organizations and dinner clubs. National issues had split ordinarily more connected people apart, and without Democratic organization, folks like Ed felt isolated.

This year, Ed is volunteering along with everyone else.

How did he get started? I asked. A friend named Margaret Begg had talked to him a handful of times, and soon enough Ed was in the office. "Everybody assumes everybody else is a Republican here," he said. The office location opened things up.

For her part, Begg has helped ignite a Democratic grassroots awakening in Miami County. Jake Schlachter, a Troy native who returned to Ohio to help out in this year's election and who was there for that first meeting, told us he's been amazed to observe his hometown's transformation. Starting from the spring with a group of five around Begg's kitchen table, the grassroots effort grew to 16, then 41, then 85, then over 200. The most inspiring thing Schlachter says he's seen this year is now that Begg and her husband have led this grassroots shift, they're indefinitely suspending plans they'd had to move away. The Beggs want to stay and build the infrastructure.

Peer-to-peer interaction. No stocking capped kids, here, my friends.



As we rolled out of our host's home in Tipp City, just down the road, serendipity found us again. We saw a woman walking with a clipboard in our direction. "Hi, I'm with the Obama campaign," she began. Her name was Sue Hofer, a middle-aged evangelical Christian on her 4th weekend doorknocking tour for Obama. She was a little surprised when we immediately started interviewing her.

Sue told us that she found her way from passive to active by first going to Obama's website. She found her local office and soon attended a nearby house party for which she'd signed up online.

The local organizer, Ian, explained at that meeting that Barack Obama intended to run a grassroots campaign and gave the group several concrete suggestions about what they could do. Soon, Sue hosted her own house party and a team was formed. They phone bank on Wednesday nights and write personalized postcards as follow-ups to voters they'd spoken with at the doors on weekends. For Obama supporters, she and her group thank the supporters for their support and suggest ways for them to plug in if they want to get involved, including Ian's number. For undecideds, they thank the recipients for having taken the time to talk, and offer them more information.

Sue stressed to us that while the campaign gives them reference material along with literature, the language they use to talk to their neighbors is their own. "We're just who we are," Sue says. Unscripted works best. "I live in Tipp City, and I'm a volunteer," she emphasizes to folks at their doors.

(Doesn't much sound like Dean-kids-in-Iowa-2004, does it, Mike?)

A bit down the road in Enon, Ohio, another deep red Ohio area, we found Jessica Ashdown leading a team of canvassers around the neighborhood. A bright, cheerful volunteer with the Wright State Democrats, Jessica has essentially been deputized out of the Beavercreek Obama field office to cover her hometown. Knockers walked in teams in very Republican neighborhoods on the warm early fall afternoon, following the mantra that you can't win if you don't show up.

We tried to go to the McCain office just down the street in Troy at noon on Saturday. At the exact moment we arrived, we found two nice elderly women peering inside the locked, closed office. They'd come to volunteer. Unfortunately, McCain's Troy office isn't open on weekends, according to a sign in the window.

24 days til the election.

Obama Field Office; Troy, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

383 comments

Mark said...

Do I have to read it before I say....

Sammy said...

Soldier on, Obama volunteers! 24 days to go.

Brian said...

At the exact moment we arrived, we found two nice elderly women peering inside the locked, closed office.

Awesome. Great report.

Mark said...

Great write up.

WTH is up with McCain's office not opening on Saturday. Quite frankly, I'm shocked.

I live in FL but I am from Western PA and I am really enjoying the photos. I miss autumn quite a bit and seeing all these light jackets and that soft light makes me want to come back there for a few weeks.

Vote said...

MN Senate Debate: Franken vs. Coleman vs. Barkley [Live Analysis]

Sam said...

It's amazing how well Obama's grassroots organization is springing up across the nation.

I personally feel as though the polls are underestimating the turnout this year (which will be in Obama's favour).

It's good to see that his message is reaching even the most conservative corners of this country.

sulthernao said...

I was canvassing in WI for Obama today. Got to meet Kathleen Sebelius!

But seriously? They were not open?

Madre said...

Nobody home in McCain and, eh? Sounds like some of the stuff I read about the Hillary campaign. The people beating the street to get out the vote are the ones who will change the status quo. Way to go.

boulder-liberal said...

Sammy, I wonder how large the volunteer Obama Army is. Today, I received my mission. Tomorrow, I hope to meet 49 of my neighbors.

Giuliani scoffed at the idea of a community organizer. Obama's organization is going to kick McCain's ass.

clubok said...

Perhaps the McCain field office observes the Jewish Sabbath? After all, Troy is a heavily Jewish town. :)

Andrew said...

Vote: your link is not working.

Madre said...

That's McCainLand. Bad fingers tonight.

Robert said...

I've posted this on one other thread, but I more and more think it is a decent idea. If you are someone who supports Obama or is just recently considering doing so because of the wave of hate campaign by McCain/Palin, consider: it may not help increase Obama's chances of winning, you are helping reduce the division in our country when he inherits the white house.

Plus, see my new note about calling their National phone line - this is the best.

******************************
Hey everyone: I have been trying to think what to do about productively acting on my total frustration at the McCain camp doing its insane hate based campaign that seems so dangerous.

Here are some McCain offices to call and shame volunteers that they are associated with it. I am a Baptist Christian myself, and I definitely intend to ask his Christian volunteers how they reconcile supporting this stuff with their faith. At the very least, your opinion is logged and passed on. At the best, his own volunteers are convinced to call for some change.

Have a cell phone with a few extra minutes and no penalty for long distance? Want to make some calls too? Here are some numbers to get started with.

McCain National Contact (You can leave messages)
(703) 418-2008

VERY PRODUCTIVE: CALL THE NATIONAL LINE. PRESS "1" for their directory. Enter random alpha or numeric 3-4 digit beginnings of the extension person's name. Presto, talk with one of McCain's national workers/speechwriters/outreach personnel, etc.


All these others you can talk to volunteers:
Missouri
(314) 667-4411

Ohio
614-441-8097

Virginia (mid Atlantic HQ)
703-297-8900

Nashua Victory HQ
603-888-3138

New Hampshire
603-369-4944

Laconia, NH
602-524-1999

Stratham NH
603-778-1154

new mexico, Central office
505 298 3662

Albuquerque
505-715-4330

McCain Great Lakes MI
248-579-0350

********************

Who likes this idea?

Adanthar said...

Office closures are GREAT NEWS!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!

Eric said...

PPP: Colorado
Obama 52
McCain 42

Zogby Daily Tracking

Obama 49
McCain 43

Robert said...

I'm going to re-emphasize this one:

(703) 418-2008
McCain National Contact: You can leave messages, OR.....

VERY PRODUCTIVE (and interesting): CALL THE NATIONAL LINE. PRESS "1" for their directory. Enter random alpha or numeric 3-4 digit beginnings of the extension person's name. Presto, talk with one of McCain's national workers/speechwriters/outreach personnel, etc.

Tell them (in civil tones, I hope) your honest opinion of this crazy hate-based strategy. Ask them how they feel about the anger they are whipping up. Ask them how much they think they are raising the chances of political violence. I have had some great conversations - including one with someone I see arguing for McCain on TV often.

JulieInSeattle said...

Way to go!

I live in Seattle and have seen a TON of outreach. At least 8 random people stopped by since I put my Obama sign up a week or so ago.

Josh said...

Great story. It's so nice to read about this sort of thing. Particularly the bit about Sue Hofer.

I feel there's just so much positivity coming out of the Obama campaign. People coming together. Realizing that they all have somewhat similar goals. All wanting to get this country back in our hands. The hands of real thinking Americans.

such sweet thunder said...

I wonder if the staffers from the closed McCain office were sent to a different office in districts with more undecideds -- still seems silly though.

Sean: What's the story behind the duck costume $10 picture. I know you guys asked about it. I want a duck costume.

Just John said...

Thanks Sean for another encouraging story. Here's hoping these folks in Miami County get their votes counted.

downtownhotel said...

Hey julieinseattle,

Like you, I live in deep-blue Washington State (already 97% Obama likely according to Nate's model) and almost wish I was someplace like OH or CO where I could go out and doorbell for a chance to make a difference, but eh, I guess I'll just tip in yet another $25 to support the efforts of those working where it counts.

We all do what we can, I guess.

Jonathan said...

WOO MIAMI COUNTY! That's my ancestral home! My great grandmother was from Piqua, and I have ancestors from Miami and Shelby counties back to the early 1800s. I visited Troy twice...lovely town, with lots of cool buildings. I visited in 2004 a month before the election, and I remember seeing political signs everywhere in town.

Sammy said...

Boulder-Liberal,

Hopefully, large enough, and it seems like that's the way it's going. I've got to really commend you, and every other volunteer putting in time to help Obama. I live in the heart of New York City, so there's not much in the way of organization or GOTV efforts to be done here. Certainly, I've made my donations! Good luck out there.

Oh, and to Clubok:
I hope they closed for Yom Kippur too, and prayed for repentence from the ways that the Republicans have screwed us all! Oh, wait, that would require a) Jews being for McCain and b) McCain having any substantive number of volunteers at all.


Certainly, anecdotally I know that McCain/Palin stock (particularly Palin's)have plummeted nearly as much as the Dow Jones Industrial among older, Jewish (Florida) voters. Especially the ones that I know and have talked to--ones who are more or less overtly racist--are disgusted by Palin. I don't know where Palin's going to help McCain except for the base.

John said...

Obama's lead increased by 2.5 points in the Zogby tracking poll.

Zogby also has Obama ahead by 21 points with independents (!) but only ahead 6.1 points overall because of his absurd weighting.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1583

pygmy_owl said...

Boulder-liberal: Not to pry, but where do you live in Boulder? We may be neighbors. I'm in SE Boulder, near the East Boulder rec center.

An Obama supporter just came by my place this afternoon. It sorta surprised me, since I have a huge Obama sign in my door. I've had at least four phone calls from the Obama campaign, and several folks swinging by. I'd be interested to hear back from you how many mention that the neighbor2neighbor database is overbooking.

Josh said...

What's up with Zogby's weird weighting? Has he given an explanation for it?

Rich (vtslayer) said...

Robert, while your idea was intriguing the first time you suggested it, I do not think it is worth re-posting in every thread.

More importantly, I think that it is not the most efficient way of supporting our candidate. What will win Obama this election is knocking on doors, making those calls to perfect the database, making contacts with undecided voters, and getting the vote out in swing states.

After all, as angering as McCain's tactics are, they appear to be backfiring on an epic scale anyway...

Cugel said...

Of course they were closed on weekends! We can't wake John McCain up from his nap now! And weekends he likes to catch up on his sleep. And so does his campaign.

If McCain wins Ohio, it will simply be by default. They're not even putting up a fight on the GOTV side.

They've had 2 voter contacts with their voters? I've simply lost count of all the contacts from different organizations -- and I screen my calls too! (Then I live in Colo. so that could be part of it).

"Joe Biden" keeps sending me e-mails to ask if I've got my early voting packet! Asking how I thought he did in the debate. Michelle Obama sends a lot of e-mails too.

< Joke>I wonder if Bill & Hillary are going to invite me to another dinner party (for hundreds) like they did in the campaign? (I'm wasn't a supporter so I have NO idea how they picked my name out of a hat). < /Joke>

Joel said...

To those of you in Washington, we can still get involved here. Sure, Obama looks safe, but all those voters still need to get out and vote. Polls mean nothing without turnout.

Secondly, our governor needs our help. A Rossi administration would be catastrophic. Stop by your local office and volunteer.

(I've been working out of my local Obama office down in Olympia since June, and I'm just a senior in high school who can't vote... So yes, to the naysayers about young voters, us kids are gonna volunteer, or at least vote if eligible.)

bulwinkl said...

Having grown up in Enon I was quite pleased to see this blog. Go Jessica!!!!!!!!!

ogre said...

At the exact moment we arrived, we found two nice elderly women peering inside the locked, closed office.

Three weeks before the election, way down and... they're closed during weekends? And holidays and evenings when the hot TV shows are on?

Pardon me while I snicker, but this is really bush league... er, Palin league?

Just John said...

Joel, as a fellow Washingtonian, please rest assured that I will be there for Obama on November 4 no matter what the polls say. I've waited TOO LONG to cast my vote for him to blow it off now.

Millions of others nationwide feel the same way as me.

Are you sure you're not eligible? Not 18 by Inauguration Day?

such sweet thunder said...

Oh, one last comment for Brett,

Loved the picture from Friday night lights. Growing up in the Midwest, I don't think you can really explain high school football. We used to get a couple of thousand at the games. They were just beautiful social gatherings; not really about the football. But about people coming out to meet their neighbors; say hello; and the hundreds of students talking to each other; and the band. The bands are brilliantly fun.

I grew up in a suburb and I'm still amazed at how high school football allowed our community, which had no other rallying point, to come together.

boulder-liberal said...

owl-

I'm actually now up in Lyons, but many years ago I lived in the Table Mesa area.

What I found out today (at my first meeting) was that they are looking to populate the database, I assume for internal polling purposes. We will also encourage people to vote early. And, we will ask people if they want to volunteer. For me, its just a good way to meet my neighbors.

Just John said...

There's really a place in CO called "Table" "Mesa"? Really?

Becca said...

Love to see you guys went to Troy! I grew up there and I know Jake Schlachter sort of distantly (I also worked for Margaret Begg at her bakery). You have no idea how great it is to see people attempting to campaign for a Democrat in Miami County. My parents said that the number of people involved in Troy has been growing exponentially. Awesome!

Shawn said...

@Joel (and all like him), THANK YOU.

sporcupine said...

Come on up for the rising!

Tgold65 said...

What is most amazing about your trek Sean is that this is the kind of reporting that we should expect from the folks at NBC, CNN, CBS and even FOX. These folks should be really getting out on the campaign trail and looking at what is going on with the ground game just like you are. I am happy that you are doing it, but disappointed that the MSM doesn't see fit to do real reporting any more.

I guess that just isn't as much fun as flying on one of those fancy jets...even if Obama's jet smells bad (that one was for you Mr snooty CBS reporter).

bela said...

We are watching the election here with great engagement. Back in may 2007 I said to my Persian friend Hossain in Amsterdam that a (then) little known pol called Obama would be the next president. He said it that was preposterous as no namesake of his would ever stand a change. We betted a box of chocolate on it, he laughed he said that would be the easiest bet he ever won. He has 90,9% chance of losing his bet, but he's still laughing. Now he says this would be the nicest bet he ever lost.
Greetings from Dublin

boulder-liberal said...

Just- yes there is, but I have no clue where the redundant name came from. Maybe owl knows the history.

CommieChemist said...

PPP says Obama statistically can't lose Colorado:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Shawn said...

You guys need to sign your book deal, if you already haven't. Seriously! You are probably the only ones in the country doing this thing. Others may hop on board in bits and pieces, but not for the length of time and depth of study that you will have. You will remember this road trip for the rest of your lives and we thank you for it.

newsfromOH said...

bela,

I truly hope you have to send a box of chocolates to your Persian friend in Amsterdam!!!! I watched Obama on a political talk show right before his speech at the Dem Convention in 2004. I thought "I'm looking at the first black President of the US . . ." I sent him money to help with his Senate race but also didn't think he would lead the field this early.

My greatest hope is that he is elected and the world understands that most Americans aren't the hateful, xenophobic fools that have been the loudest recently. This could be a change back to what American was once and can be again.

It looks like it can happen--if we get enough people to vote!!!

Forrest J. Bowlick said...

Apparently, us Coloradoans are well represented on these boards; I'm at school at UNC, and anyone who knows Greeley knows it isn't a democratic...anything. This is conservative country, but Students for Obama is totally active and everywhere.

Also, I graduated Lyons High School. Go Lions!

MrInsight22 said...

A Gallup pollster on the radio this week said that instead of the usual 40% non-participation rate, right now 80% of the persons reached by phone are refusing to participate. This could be skewing the polls to Obama since old people and conservatives are the groups least likely to cooperate with pollsters -- and young Obama supporters are proud to talk with pollsters.

liforcerenewal said...

Hey, You guys need to lighten-up, Go to margaretandhelen.wordpress.com You will laugh Your asses-off as two old ladies rip into Animal-Enemy-#1-Palin and McSame, Enjoy!
~Special council for the Trees...

bela said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Joey said...

in the Netherlands for example, the fastest growing political party wants to disown citizens from Islamic descend, regardless whether they are good citizens or not


Are they legal citizens of the Netherlands?

Hmmm... the term "ethnic cleansing" comes to mind.

John B. said...

A Kansas reader here. An Obama canvasser came by a couple of weeks ago, but no one from the McCain campaign has called or sent mail. Of course, this is Kansas; maybe we don't count (in that McCain thinks we're in the bag).

Mind you, I want McCain to lose, and lose decisively. But I still can't get my head around just how poorly-run his organization has been. As Obama himself once said in another context, "Is this all you've got?" Maybe it's a sign of just how thin McCain's support has been among Republicans; maybe it all really is attributable to ineptitude. Whatever the case, I can't think of a single thing that, over the long haul, his campaign has gotten right or done well. It's like they watched the Clinton campaign and said, Okay: everything she did wrong, we'll do exactly the same things, only twice as badly or as crassly.

Oh--and what Shawn said above. These posts have been great fun to read.

Phoeflame said...

A Gallup pollster on the radio this week said that instead of the usual 40% non-participation rate, right now 80% of the persons reached by phone are refusing to participate. This could be skewing the polls to Obama since old people and conservatives are the groups least likely to cooperate with pollsters -- and young Obama supporters are proud to talk with pollsters.

LOL. Like a 40% skewing, no doubt.

You guys are funny. Let us know when PeteKent's fundamental shift in the election towards McCain/Palin--now in its thirtieth day, I think, right?--starts to subside, 'kay?

Josh said...

"MrInsight22 said... This could be skewing the polls to Obama since old people and conservatives are the groups least likely to cooperate with pollsters -- and young Obama supporters are proud to talk with pollsters."

What proof do you have that such a theory is correct?

And do polling companies have a caller ID such as "polling company" or is it something less obvious? Would people know to screen the calls? That seems like a real reach to me. I think the cellphone effect argument makes a lot more sense.

McCain Vs. McCain.

Joey said...

A Kansas reader here. An Obama canvasser came by a couple of weeks ago, but no one from the McCain campaign has called or sent mail. Of course, this is Kansas; maybe we don't count (in that McCain thinks we're in the bag).

Maybe it's a money thing.
Like you said, it IS Kansas. And they NEED to be spending their money in a whole lot of other places right now.

MATT J. H. said...

Nate, your site is so far ahead of any other site its bordering on ridiculous. Your numbers are better. Your blog posts are better. Your "Ground game" coverage is excellent.

Your my favourite site , and its not even close. Well done.

Nicholas said...

There's no way before this election, the non-participation rate for any poll was only 40% (meaning a 60% response rate). I took an intro to quantitative political science methodology course 3 years ago, and it was assumed that polls via phone should yield a 20-30% response rate (70-80% NON-response rate).

bela said...

to joey,

I deleted my comment in order not to digress to much from the topic at hand. But if anyone wants to read about how real anti-islam sentiments can destroy a rich, civilised (liberal) country like the Netherlands; check "Murder in Amsterdam: The Death of Theo Van Gogh and the Limits of Tolerance" by Ian Buruma.

Homespun1 said...

Phone banked for Obama at the Minneapolis HQ on Friday. Finally got my yard signs too (thanks Sean). I will be volunteering at Michelle Obama's rally at Macalester College (Leonard Center)in St. Paul, MN on monday at 2:30pm. Anyone here in MN is invited hope to see you there.

Cheers,
A community volunteer

sims said...

I grew up near Dayton, and spent time in Troy. It's a great town, like lots of others in that part of the state. Ohio always seemed to me to be split fairly evenly politically, with most people remaining close enough to the center to see the people with different views, thereby understanding that being on opposite sides of a line didn't make one unpatriotic.

I don't know what the hell has happened in Ohio in the ten years since I left, but the video of the Palin rally in Strongsville this week mortified the hell out of me.

I'm happy and relieved to see the people in and around Troy doing the work of (small d) democracy. These are the people I remember growing up with, and they will save this entire country through their efforts.

You, and people all over the US have my thanks.

Wa7th said...

Shawn said...

You guys need to sign your book deal, if you already haven't.

Nah, keep the bidding war going a few more weeks.

Beth said...

I work in Tipp City (live in Englewood), and just have to say that this piece AMAZES me. Every day that I am in Tipp I drive different routes through different neighborhoods on a single mission: To spot Obama yard signs. I have yet to see a single one anywhere in Tipp. There are some neighborhoods where I have counted as many as a dozen McCain signs in a one-block radius, and I've never seen a single Obama sign. It's not terribly surprising given that this is a town where GWB spoke, and they even named the street that runs past the high school George W. Bush Way. And you're telling me that there are middle aged women who have the cojones to go out and knock on doors for Obama?!? In Tipp City?!? I am FLOORED.

Geoff said...

Your story about one of your friends (Phil) talking about Ohio incessantly reminds me of my own friends from the buckeye state. People from Ohio often exhibit an irrational obsession with their home state, & it drives me crazy. They honestly love themselves.

As someone that lives in Indiana, I know well enough that Ohio actually sucks. Especially Cincinnati, ugh. Good luck getting out of there guys!

Homespun1 said...

Geoff how about reserving that judgement until after we make Ohio and Indiana blue. Maybe then you will feel different

Homespun1 said...

or not

Geoff said...

Homespun,

My judgment of Ohio is not related to politics... just facts. hahaha

But it wouldn't hurt to have a blue bond between us! Indiana is obviously the drag on this one, so I'm excited about the progress this year. Let's do what we can to make the entire Midwest solid in a single color.

Homespun1 said...

How befitting it will for Sarah Plain to return to Alaska to face a Recall ellection. It may happen. Alaskans are not happy with her at all. They are even more ticked off at having all of the McCain lawyers acting like they run the state.

Homespun1 said...

Geoff just a question...in MN we regularly have near 80% voting turnout, and I think this year we may make it to 90%. What is it like in IN?

clarkejeffrey said...

Closed on a weekend?????

Seriously??

Aren't weekends the best time to campaign. People aren't at work so they are easier to find. Thats just odd.

kermitfog said...

Yessss.... Just got my ballot in the mail. Another early vote in for Obama. Although it probably doesn't matter so much here in CA. More importantly, another "no" vote in for Prop 8. Please -- I know many of my fellow 538ers are also Californians -- I want to marry my boyfriend someday. If you can't contribute to Nate's website, at least contribute to my happiness :)

BTW, completely agree with Geoff about people from Ohio. They're crazy rabid about their state for some reason. I used to live in Indiana, but one of my best friends lived just outside of Troy, so I would visit once in a while. Troy is a cool little town but very republican / evangelical / right wing nutso. Glad to see that activity there might signal a real chance to turn Ohio blue.

Feeling great all around tonight! :)

E. Glenn said...

It's funny - bar none, the best reporting I've ever seen has come from people out of the sports milieu (I remember the earthquake at the 1989 World Series and I cannot recall anyone ever doing a better job during an all-too-live event where they themselves were in potential danger).

Well done, folks.

Brad said...

Is the Rasmussen Party ID screwed up? Republicans and independents dropped, but democrats stayed the same? What happened to 0.6% of voters?

"For polling data released during the week of October 12-18, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, October 4-11, 2008, the partisan weighting targets were 39.3% Democratic, 33.3% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated."

AP said...

Huh, Tipp City is an actual place? I just know it from the Amps song. Go figure.

Liam Hedge said...

Everytime I come to this website I feel like I must be in another world. I find it phenomenal that every story written shows a country excited to historic proportions. Let us not forget how history can be made on November 4th.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but every volunteer should go out and claim their little piece of history. Remember a little thing called precedent. It doesn't matter if you're in California, Washington or DC, every vote counts historically. If Obama can enter the White House with a margin that surpasses all records it will be a message loud and clear to the bigotted, angry fools we see at McCain rallies. Go out and claim that little piece of history.

This election reminds me a little of I Have a Dream, especially the last part. Just as MLK would like to see freedom ring, I would like to see the electoral college sing.



Let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia.

Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee.

Let freedom ring from every hill and molehill of Mississippi.

From every mountainside, let freedom ring.

mreman29g said...

I moved to Beavercreek in 2004. I never volunteered for a poltical campaign, but now I volunteer with Dave King and the Beavercreek Obama field office. Sims, I wasn't here 10 years ago, but when I got here things definitely were not split fairly evenly. People openly derided liberals and democrats with the confidence and assumption that no one disagreed or wouldn't counter them alone if they did disagree. I think the Obama campaign here is really getting moving. Once someone hears you're for Obama and you're willing to put up a sign or volunteer, it gives them the courage to do the same. In my neighborhood, a couple McCain signs popped up a few months ago. My wife and I were determined to make it known that not only McCain supporters lived in the area. We went out and got our sign. Soon other neighbors were asking where we got our signs and they started putting them up too. Every week there are more and more people volunteering and it's incredibly exciting to watch Nate's map show Ohio getting bluer and bluer at the same time.

Liam Hedge said...

Lol, reread your post Brad...

Part affiliation: .3% moved from Unaffiliated to Republican.

Grant said...

This post sums up the entire election.

Great report.

Bill P. said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Bill P. said...

MrInsight22 -

Your candidate is losing. Badly.

The fact that more people plan to vote for Barack Obama than plan to vote for John and Sarah is what's skewing the polls right now.

Maybe a dispirited member of the Republic party wouldn't want to talk to a pollster because of their sheer anger at losing the White House (which Republics see as a birthright), or maybe independent voters are tired of the election calls. Either way, the fact remains -

Barack Hussein Obama will be your president. Deal with it.

Better yet, I suggest you put on a flag pin and support him once his presidency becomes a reality. After all, doesn't the Republic party believe it's unpatriotic to disagree with the president? Or was that just hypocritical bullshit they made up to try to shame Democrats? One or the other is true. We'll find out which one after President Barack Hussein Obama takes the oath of office.

*waiting for MrInsight to either ignore this post or suddenly discover that dissent is patriotic*

The Republic party is fucked. Finally!!!!!

Geoff said...

Homespun,

I think Indiana is pretty average in terms of voter turnout, somewhere in the 50s. In my opinion, it would be higher in elections where the result was not a foregone conclusion. I abstained from voting in 2004 because I was in a 20-point Bush state. Now I am mature enough to realize that this was all the more reason to vote! I think turnout will be quite a bit higher this election, say, high 60s.

By the way, I love Minnesota. Minneapolis is surely one of the best cities in our country. I'm applying to grad school at U of M, so it might be my home next year! Thankfully Ohio schools aren't competitive in my chosen field of study... ;)

---

Kermitfog,

Good to know some other enlightened people!

visitor_xxx said...

Oh Lord...don't tell PeteKent,please:

Which Crash is Steeper?
Global Finance or John McCain?
From the Times ...

The difficulties of the McCain campaign have led some Republican leaders to express concern that he could end up dragging other of the party's candidates down to defeat.
"If Obama is able to run up big numbers around the country," said Mr. Anuzis, the Michigan party chairman, "the potential for hurting down-ballot Republicans is very big."
One sign of that has emerged in Nebraska, where Representative Lee Terry, a Republican, ran a newspaper advertisement featuring words of support for him from a woman identified as an "Obama-Terry voter."

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

Bill P. said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Bill P. said...

For any pathetic nutcake who still whines that the mainstream media is biased to the left, here is a despicably inaccurate quote from AP on Sister Sarah Palin's celebrity appearance at a Flyers hockey game:

Palin waved to the crowd and smiled as she dropped the puck to applause and cheers.

What actually happened: Palin was booed so loudly that they had to turn the music up to drown it out. The crowd waved OBAMA signs and showed their displeasure loudly, despite Palin bringing her kids out on the ice with her as a human shield against booing. Shame on the Associated Press for reporting a bald-face lie and calling it news.

The media has a right wing bias.

Reality has a liberal bias.

Manoj in Bangalore said...

A striking contrast between the two campaigns. Obama's campaign is impressive. He has the intellect and leadership qualities that the world expects from the US President. May the US return to it's old glorious days.

coffeejolts said...

I lived in Ohio almost 30 years. I am happy to see the Obama campaign making an effort in the dark red counties. However, it may actually INCREASE the margins for McCain. Republicans who otherwise might not have worried about voting will make sure to get to the polls after seeing a big Obama banner on Main Street.

I'm not saying Obama shouldn't fight- I'm saying he needs to be careful not to motivate the other guy's base in a swing state. These are God & Guns Republicans. The best thing Obama could do is convince these people that McCain has already won and that they can safely stay home on election day.

Just my $.02

Peter K said...

A bit of anecdotal evidence about Troy and an Obama win in Ohio:

A dear friend of mine has lived in Troy nearly her entire life. As I was volunteering for the Kerry campaign in New Mexico in 2004, she warned me of her certainty that Kerry would not win Ohio, despite widespread close polling at the time.

The reason? Every political yard sign and bumper sticker in town was for Bush/Cheney. She was there when Bush made a campaign stop in Troy, and said it was as if God himself had descended upon the town. They erected a big stage right in the middle of the town square (the one that the Obama office now faces), and 20,000 cheered Bush as he spoke.

This time, my friend has been telling me how she cannot believe that her conservative little town is covered with Obama bumper stickers, and there is hardly a McCain sign anywhere. And everyone has noticed that big, prominent Obama campaign office right on the square!

She also has related her disbelief that her 80+ year-old mother has said she will likely vote for Obama. Her mother is a life-long Republican whom she believes has NEVER voted for a Democrat in her entire life... and she also knows that her dear old Mom is pretty damn racist as well!

Based on hearing all this from my friend over the past couple of months, I have had confidence for quite some time that Obama will indeed take Ohio, even before the polls started showing it.

assmole said...

Barone's getting pwn3d.

assmole said...

Meanwhile, mcCain/Palin pwn themselves. McCain calls one of his 'wise men' 'shocking' (John Lewis is neither); while the hockey mom gets booed at a ,um, hockey game?! You couldn't make this shit up.

P.S. Sean, if you say the codeword 'assmole' at the next McCain field office you visit, you will receive a free handjob. Honest.

shepbob said...

For those of you in safe ble states, the Obama campaign can still find something you can do locally. Go down to the local office, or the Barack Obama website.

I live in California, but have come to Las Cruces for the final 5 weeks. My fellow californians are flooding New Mexico with phone calls, and letting us here, on the ground, canvass, etc.

Give money too, but for real satisfaction, get in the game!

markymark said...

I love how conservatives are coming on this site and pointing out any small flaw there might be in polls, and if thats not possible, making sh*t up about them. Polling companies work hard to try to get there polls as good and accurate as possible. Obviously all polls have a MOE but beyond that, don't bother coming onto this site, of all sites, and make sh*t up about how polls aren't accurate this time, and that Obama is actually not 6 or so points up.

joel said...

Zogby uses a party id of 38 dems 36 rep which was what it was in 2004. In reality party id is probably more like Rasmussen has plus 6 for dems so add 3 or 4 points to zogby and he is at the level every other pollster is at 8-10 point Obama lead.
This election is over and it would be nice for McCain to go out with a little class.

Matt said...

"Everybody assumes everybody else is a Republican here."

Boy does that sound familiar.

justsomeguy said...

Palin wants to keep inciting racism and hate, McCain wants to go a bit more positive.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4926283.ece

"With his electoral prospects fading by the day, Senator John McCain has fallen out with his vice-presidential running mate about the direction of his White House campaign.

McCain has become alarmed about the fury unleashed by Sarah Palin, the moose-hunting “pitbull in lipstick”, against Senator Barack Obama. Cries of “terrorist” and “kill him” have accompanied the tirades by the governor of Alaska against the Democratic nominee at Republican rallies.

Mark Salter, McCain’s long-serving chief of staff, is understood to have told campaign insiders that he would prefer his boss, a former Vietnam prisoner of war, to suffer an “honourable defeat” rather than conduct a campaign that would be out of character – and likely to lose him the election. "

justsomeguy said...

So Palin, the true amateur, wants to bite the hand that created her. This woman is a piece of work, and very scary for the country and McCain.

assmole said...

justsoeguy: how can you be scared of someone so dumb? you ought to be ashamed.

justsomeguy said...

LOL! Whipping up fury is easy, controlling and governing is hard.

She is not dumb, she is just inexpreienced and uneducated. She attempts NOT to read about the rest of the world. That does not make her dumb, just unqualified.

justsomeguy said...

Looks like MSNBC reads 538. Sean, you are catching on!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27141038/

Foregone Conclusion said...

I think McCain really, really, doesn't like where he is at the moment. Firstly, he's losing, which isn't ever very good. Secondly, he's weighed down by Palin wherever he goes. And thirdly, he seriously hates the type of campaign he's running. It's not populist, it's demagogic (the difference being that populism appeals to the interest of the common people and their best natures, whereas demagogy consists of stirring up an angry mob). He probably still believes that the people who are voting for him - the only people - are 'agents of intolerance'. I feel rather sorry for him (but not much - it's the GOP, after all, and he made the choice to turn Right).

Apparently Bush I felt seriously guilty about winning through Willie Horton - he did not consider flirting with racism his finest hour. So it is with McCain.

Palin, however, doesn't care in the slightest. All that matters to her is power. If I ever hear her name again after this election, I will give up hope on Republicans forever.

justsomeguy said...

You wil hear her name. It won't last long though, she is not ready for prime time.

Also from the article I linked above:

"In Wilmington, Palin’s many admirers were in no doubt that she should run for president next time. Nancy Ross, a hairdresser, 45, said if the Republicans lost the election, she would be cheered up by the thought of Palin as the 2012 nominee.

“I would absolutely love her to run in four years’ time. By then most of her kids will be grown,” she said. “I’d like her to run against Hillary [Clinton]. She would squash her. She is a real person and we need people like her in Washington.”

Mary Ann Black, 58, a human resources director, said: “I love her. She’s so authentic.” Although she thought highly of McCain as well, Black added: “Her career is just beginning and his is in the twilight.” "

Tom said...

What a great article. This is now my favorite site. I was knocking on doors in Beavercreek yesterday, and am going out again this afternoon. This weekend, just like last weekend, people have told me, "you're in the wrong neighborhood. No Obama supporters here." Next door, I talked to an Obama supporter. Then a couple houses down, I found a family of 4 who were all voting Obama and wanted yard signs.

I think the ground game is really exciting. It shows that a group of people with passion, vision, and hope can really make something happen.

Genevieve said...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/74754/992/745/627771

10/12 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 53, McCain 40

justsomeguy said...

Tom-

Thank you for your work!

justsomeguy said...

genevieve-

This is a dream, Obama went up in both trackers in so far. Where is the ceiling? WOW!

Ordinary Average Blogger said...

There's really a place in CO called "Table" "Mesa"? Really?

You know that the people who named it had either a fabulous dry wit or total linguistic ignorance. Perhaps the latter is more likely.

"Hey, this mesa looks like... a table! Let's name it Table Mesa!"

KoolHerc73 said...

I live in Gainesville, VA... Many would consider it a Republican stronghold located 5 miles past Manassas and about 25 to 30 miles to the southwest of Washington, DC. But thanks to urban sprawl, what was once thought of as an area colored a bright cherry hue is now turning a beautiful shade of plum.

Congizant of this fact, Barack kicked off his presidential campaign a mile or so from my house at Nissan Pavillion.

Anyway, my last donation to the campain came with a perk -- we would be receiving an Obama/Biden yard sign. My wife, knowing I'm a fervent supporter of the ticket, decided to surprise me by purchasing one on her own. Worst case scenario the other gets lost in the mail and we'd have one sign. Best case, we'd have two and can strategically place the other or give it away.

I proudly put up the sign Friday evening -- careful to position it so that it would receive maximum attention from passers-by...

It lasted two nights. My wife woke up this morning to see our Obama/Biden sign was replaced with McCain/Palin.

Are you effin' kidding me?!?! Are people really THAT childish that they'd replace a sign on someone else's property with their candidate? Don't get me wrong -- I've *thought* of sinister ways to deal with the McCain/Palin signs in the adjascent neighborhood, but quickly let the moments pass.

Anyone have any clever ideas to combat the trolls? We thought baiting the sign-switcher and recording it on webcam might be interesting, but... it's hard to justify the cost.

Would love to get the collective thoughts of the site.

PorridgeGun said...

MrInsight22,


That's not even a glass half full theory. Obama is (almost) comfortably ahead in every tracking poll, so that indicates McCain supporters (OAPs) aren't a participting. It's the YOUNG PEOPLE who are always home, eager to recieve a phone calls from Gallup, Rasmussen, etc.


Again, brilliant wingnut logic.

Carrick said...

Hey, my first post on here.

Off topic, but on the Barone post someone objected to the Scientology ads on here.

I second that. I presume plenty of people on here are in the know about how screwed up Scientology is - a private company masquerading as a religion to subvert tax and labor laws. How they treat people is far more deplorable.

You should really get their ads off of here. Would you allow ads from Benny Hinn or that midnight televangelist guy who sells holy handkerchiefs and salt packets to the lonely and desperate? Its the same illegitimacy and indecency, but phenomenally more destructive for the people involved.

Please get those ads off. Its offensive.

Herunar said...

I've always been puzzled that Obama's numbers aren't a lot higher than they are now. Obama has been running one of the best campaigns in history (they defeated Hillary, after all, no easy feat), and McCain one of the worst (remember their suspension for their internal "economic crisis" last year?), honestly. And any Democrat should win by a landslide in this year. Racism is a factor, obviously. But I think the most important thing is that a good campaign doesn't matter anymore. Mass media is more effective than any campaign - and the result of the natural polarization is that the race, any race, ends up more or less tied.

Robert said...

Rich (vtslayer) said:
"while your idea was intriguing the first time you suggested it, I do not think it is worth re-posting in every thread."

Point taken. I guess I thought the 2nd part was fresh (calling HQ and talking to high up campaign workers with the directory tree). I won't bring it up again, except possibly to report interesting conversations I've had.

I can definitely say, however, that the frank admissions of shame by several campaign workers (including one national director), have been incredibly interesting (if I was the type, they would be very popular youtube audios). I am fully aware that making calls for the Obama campaign, etc. might be more helpful to them, but I do truly worry about the chances of political violence raising because of the tone the McCain camp has been pushing and the hate it has whipped up. This seems more targeted for that problem.

Again though, as far as this forum, point taken for not clogging it up with repeat posts.

justsomeguy said...

Ya, it's the young people who stay hime at night and the old folks who are out partying at the bars. Ya, thats it...LOL!

It is also dead wrong, the youth numbers are always underrepresented, see the Selzer post from Nate.

Got any reverse logic on the cell phone only or AA vote?

markymark said...

koolherc,

Hmmm thats a toughy, I would imagine removing a sign and replacing it with another takes a minute or two. Maybe erect a trip wire somehow around the edge of your sign?

But I would just shrug it off remind yourself that it shows just how petty the right wing nuts are, and just take to wearing Obama buttons.

PorridgeGun said...

Mooseburger getting boo'd at last night's Rangers/Flyers game

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TgDanmWkg



They (Flyers wingnut owner Ed Snider) had to raise the music volume in the arena to drown out the booing. Bravo, Flyers fans!!!

justsomeguy said...

DO NOT set up any physical trap for the yard sign stealers, if they are injured you could be liable. It makes little sense, but it is the tort law.

The camera is the best idea, but you need to catch their license plate. Alternativly, make your own Obama sign on your color printer so it is cheap and easy to replace.

Real Joe said...

Morning !

assmole said...

I stand by my statement: Palin is dumb- she doesn't understand what is acceptable in public office and what isn't - the 'troopergate' enquiry has shown that. She only knows the difference between hockey moms and pitbulls. I doubt people in Alaska will even want her as Governor after the election's over.

justsomeguy said...

I watched the booing live, watched just to see if she got booed. It was ugly.

All political ads on PA TV this morning. McCain running only very negative ads, not fact based but innuendo (be afraid of him...) based negativity. Obama is running fact based negative ads, mixed with positive ads. Obama is winning the ad war, the fear is not working this round. Thank god.

markymark said...

It must be quite a shock for Palin to get booed like that, she has been so sheltered away from that kind of thing by the campaign.

Real Joe said...

RCP average Obama +7.8

OMG

Carrick said...

Koolherc73,

Hey, I'm in Springfield. I was actually in your area (Gainesvile/Purceville?) knocking on doors for something else a while ago (for any Non-Virginians, we are in the same state, usually just in different countries) - lots of suburban sprawl, really nice country elsewhere.

Anyway, your sign predicament..

Make a homemade Obama sign. Someone would have to be a real shit to mess with something a person had made with this own hands and time. A camera isn't a bad idea - there may be a cheap/free diy way to set it to motion-activation (google it?).

Keep it in a car parked right next to your sign. If you get some good footage of them, blow it up in Photoshop and print it in sections into a big poster (or find a friend/Obama person who works at a photo store to hook you up), then put that big poster of your thief in your front lawn next to your homemade Obama sign.

If you get a great face shot, paste their face onto someone wearing an Obama t-shirt looking all Obama-devotee-ish (or on the body of one of the Weathermen? I dunno). Pretty embarrassing.

justsomeguy said...

Real Joe-

bama up in both national trackers this morning. Ready to switch to the winner?

O+ 13 in R2000 and 6 in Zogby.

Real Joe said...

Zogby

Obama +6

justsomeguy said...

OBAMA REACHES 50% IN THE REPUBLICAN SKEWED RCP AVERAGE!


YEAH BABY!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Real Joe said...

22 days to go

i'm in the undecided column but its highly unlikely that i will vote for McCain

Daniel said...

TGold65,

Sean's "On the Road" reporting reminds me a lot of the late Charles Kuralt, who travelled all over the country to talk to common folks and share their anecdotals on American life

justsomeguy said...

real joe-

Wow, quite an admission, but it is near impossible to vote Palin and McCain. Did you see the Times of London article linked above? Palin is trying to co-opt the campaign.

Thason Jweatt said...

As gratified as I am to see Palin getting boos, the spin for this is that Philadelphia fans will boo anyone, including Santa Claus.

Still, it says something (to me) that she wouldn't take her boos by herself.

markymark said...

Does anyone on here think that Palin is a serious threat in 2012? I wonder, if McCain goies down horribly, if some more moderate GOPers might want to pin some of the blame on her and do anything to stop her getting the nomination. But she has built some potentially useful contacts with Rove disciples, and would seem to be the almost perfect style of candidate for them. I think if Palin were the nominee in 2012, Obama, if he is doing a half decent job as President, would easily be reelected, and she would be pushed into defending her 'he palls around with terrorist' type comments. Also I wonder if its possible to run for President whilst still Governor of Alaska, and if serving out 2 terms and then running as a private citizen for 2016 is more realistic.

Real Joe said...




Castro: Miracle Obama Not Killed

Former Cuban president Fidel Castro has claimed it is a "pure miracle" that US presidential candidate Barack Obama has not been assassinated.

full article


KoolHerc73 said...

markymark, justsomeguy, and carrick:

Thanks for the feedback!

First things first, I'll be printing out and putting up two signs today. Along with a "stop stealing my Obama/Palin signs"... And if those are stolen/replaced, four will go up tomorrow... Then eight... Then sixteen... Repeat as necessary until my yard is awash in Obama/Biden blue.

In the meantime, I'll have the surveillance cam in place.

Real Joe said...



Clintons Plan Ohio Appearances Campaigning for Obama

(AP) -- Bill and Hillary Clinton are planning separate appearances in Ohio in coming days to campaign for their former nemesis Barack Obama.

The Illinois senator vanquished Hillary Clinton last spring in the Democratic primary process, though she was the winner in key states including Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Now in the home stretch of the presidential race, the Clintons will launch their campaign effort today at a rally in Scranton, Pa., the hometown of Obama's running mate, Joe Biden.

After the rally, the Clintons will follow separate itineraries through presidential battleground states, including Ohio. They will campaign not only for the Democratic ticket but also for Democratic House and Senate candidates across the country.

Real Joe said...



Dean predicts record turnout

(AP) - Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is predicting record turnout in the presidential election and is urging Americans to vote early.

The former Vermont governor was in his hometown of Burlington on Saturday before a scheduled campaign stop in support of Barack Obama in New Hampshire on Monday.

Dean told a gathering of professional firefighters on Saturday that he voted that morning and would like 20 to 30% of Americans to cast their votes early.

He said that way voters can fix any problems with their registration before the Nov. 4 election to ensure their votes count.

In Vermont voters can cast their ballots early at a municipal office or by requesting a ballot by mail.

Real Joe said...



Obama grassroots effort called biggest yet

(UPI) -- Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Barack Obama has developed the most far-reaching grassroots campaign structure ever devised, analysts said.

Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, has placed fresh emphasis on old fashioned, face-to-face campaigning, establishing a massive network of more than 700 campaign offices in battleground states and establishing strict sets of ambitious voter outreach goals for volunteers, The Washington Post (NYSE:WPO) reported Sunday.

Obama's campaign managers have also borrowed some successful and sophisticated techniques from Republican strategist Karl Rove to find voters who may be responsive to their message, the Post said. Rove used the methods to help President George Bush defeat Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry in 2004, political analysts told the newspaper.

The Obama effort's scale is unprecedented and its volunteers highly motivated, Marshall Ganz, a labor organizer who has led training sessions for Obama staff members and volunteers, told the Post.

"They've invested in a civic infrastructure on a scale that has never happened," he said. "It's been an investment in the development of thousands of young people equipped with the skills and leadership ability to mobilize people and in the development of leadership at the local level. It's profound."

Real Joe said...



Obama Outpaces McCain's Get Out The Vote Effort In Wisconsin

Obama Has More Offices and Staff In Wisconsin Than McCain

(AP) - Democrats hope that organizational edge will lead the Illinois senator to victory in November.

The Obama campaign has organized more than 420 teams of volunteers and opened more than 50 offices. Some are in heavily Republican areas.

McCain's campaign is taking a more traditional approach, organizing volunteers out of 18 "victory" offices across the state. Those offices are working to get McCain and other Republicans elected in November.

Wisconsin Republican Party executive director Mark Jefferson says he's not worried about Obama's organization. He said the Republican base is motivated and positioned as well or better than when President Bush was the candidate in 2004.

Terry said...

Nate or Sean: I'd be interested in your take on the effect of all the blogging on swaying votes. Does anyone read blogs that aren't supportive of their position in the first place?

mc9cain said...

anyone have the Sunday Rasmussen poll yet?

Antmatic said...

Rasmussen
O-56
M-40

But LOL, look at the crosstabs

Obama gets 58% of the white vote, which seems right. But he only gets 53% of the Hispanic vote and 53% of the "other vote" (I assume this is a mix of Asians and African Americans). LOL, Obama will win 70% of both subsets, he'll probably put up a 6 in California on election night.

Real Joe said...



Another Conservative comes out for Obama

Wick Allison, Editor in Chief of D Magazine in Dallas-Fort Worth, is another true and established Conservative to realize that Obama is the best hope for this country... and the most likely to preserve HIS values. In an article entitled A Conservative For Obama, Allison states that "Barack Obama strikes a chord with me like no political figure since Ronald Reagan.


full article

Antmatic said...

ALERT - My post above was a CALIFORNIA state poll, not a national poll.

Real Joe said...

CA is deep blue

histocrat said...

Hey, I'm randomly curious.

Has Nate mentioned whether, in his regression, high margins in non-competitive states are good news or bad news for a candidate? I can see arguments for either.

If we hold the national numbers constant, then Obama's numbers in CA should be negatively correlated with his collective numbers in the other 49, right? They might have a positive correlation with NV, say, but the average state snapshot should get worse as CA gets better since CA's numbers "account for" some of the national numbers.

But polling is such an inexact science that, intuitively, higher poll numbers should always be considered good news even in a non-swing state

prairiecomm said...

real joe - thanks for the articles ... and good morning!

Vanessa said...

M45
O51

Antmatic said...

Rasmussen National
O-51
M-45

Margin of error fluctuation

Real Joe said...

rasmussen O +7 52-45

Shawn said...

Today's Rasmussen

Obama- 51
McCain - 45

Real Joe said...

its 51

sorry

mc9cain said...

wow ras numbers look great!!

Real Joe said...

McCain coming back

?

:-)

prairiecomm said...

say, does anyone know what talkingpoints.com is? I went there by accident this am, meaning to go to talkingpointsmemo.com

an in-house repub site?

Real Joe said...

TPM is a liberal site

DarcyPennell said...

KoolHerc73:

I was going to suggest rubbing your sign with poison ivy, but justsomeguy has a good point about liability.

Perhaps you could add a line in very small type to your handmade sign (so only the sign stealers would be close enough to read it) which says "Every time you steal my sign, I donate again to the Obama campaign. Thanks for supporting Obama for president!"

Shawn said...

LOL. Rasmussen moved his party weighting to +.3 to Republican.

"For polling data released during the week of October 12-18, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, October 4-11, 2008, the partisan weighting targets were 39.3% Democratic, 33.3% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated."

Real Joe said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Real Joe said...

shawn said...
LOL. Rasmussen moved his party weighting to +.3 to Republican.


republican numbers are not going up

they are going down

justsomeguy said...

From Ras:

"Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 255-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House. "

Real Joe said...



John McCain to Visit CBS' 'LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN,' Thursday, Oct. 16

PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --

2008 Republican Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) will visit the LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN, Thursday, Oct. 16 (11:35 PM-12:37 AM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.
This will mark Sen. McCain's first return to LATE SHOW since canceling his appearance on Sept. 24. His 13th visit to the program, it will also mark Sen. McCain's first LATE SHOW appearance since formally accepting his party's nomination at the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn. on Thursday, Sept. 4. He announced his candidacy for President on the LATE SHOW on Feb. 28, 2007.
In the 2008 race for the White House, the LATE SHOW also hosted Democratic Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama, who visited the broadcast on Wednesday, Sept. 10.
Also on the LATE SHOW Thursday, Oct. 16 will be musical guest Ne-Yo.

cane said...

"Real Joe said...
22 days to go

i'm in the undecided column but its highly unlikely that i will vote for McCain"

Come on, Real Joe, you are starting to look erratic. You jumped ship yesterday, so voting making is now fully out of bounds. Your options are:

Voting Barr
Voting Obama
Writing in Chuck Norris
Staying Home
Working double shift on election day and donate the money to a new non-profit "Reasonable Republicans say no more"

Balls Explode!!!

Shawn said...

Actually I'm a tool and it went DOWN .3. In my Obama jubilance, I got too excited to make fun of Rasmussen.

Real Joe said...

Hotline: 49-41 +8

justsomeguy said...

Real Joe-

Repubs went down 0.3% and independents went up 0.3% in Ras party ID.

fiatluxury said...

excellent! signs being stolen - you must have gotten under your skin. I love the "will donate money for every sign stolen" idea, and also the multiplying signs...(though you better lay in a supply of markers and posterboard!) but you can also just hang one on the inside of a window, perhaps? lots harder to steal that!

or your car, maybe, though who knows what some idiot would do to your car then!

prairiecomm said...
This post has been removed by the author.
prairiecomm said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Real Joe said...

any state polls coming out today ?

prairiecomm said...

tpm is a liberal site
No, not tpm, tp - talkingpoints.com

password accessible only

in-house?

Eric said...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama

Check it out above. For those of you who don't know who William F. Buckley is, let's just say this is more intriguing than when Reagan and Eisenohwer's kid and grandkid announce their Democratic vote. Buckley is the soul of the Conservative movement.


I imagine many of you have a similar experience. I'm in Texas, so my circle of friends and family is naturally not all Democrats. I have 3 people in particular who regularly vote Republican, an 80-yr old woman who is ex-military, a 32 yr old $300k/yr guy who normally votes to keep taxes low, and a 50yr old woman who has mutliple reason she normally votes Republican. Bottmoline, for a variety of reasons they are all voting for Obama. I've heard everything from health care, to Roe v Wade being overturned, to we need the smartest of the two in these times, to McCain's just too hawkish, to Obama is just so impressive I'm going to give him a chance to be great even though I normally don't have faith in politicians. They have mentioned that within their circle of family and friends many are just like them. I, who normally vote Democrat, have not experienced this before. This is my leading indicator, more than any data I've seen or heard that gives me confidence of where we'll be Nov. 4th. All of these folks have their minds made up. They won't swing back.

Erikson said...

I said it during the primaries - and I'll say it again. Obama's ground game will make the difference not just in states like OH and FL, but also INDIANA. Please read my write-up regarding the impact of Obama's ground game in the Hoosier State at:

http://democratictribune.com/obamasgroundgame.html

Real Joe said...



Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorses Obama

Link

Paul45 said...

I agree about the strength of the Obama ground work. Here in Cincinnati it is unbelievable. By the way, here in Ohio, we were worried that McCain was going to pick Rob Portman for VP. He was Bush's Director of OMB, worked in the White House, is "Right" on social issues, and not only reads books but writes them...on international economics! His bump for the team may not have come until now but it might be a different race.

At the time I thought McCain dropped Portman from the last few short lists to move from Bush. Since McCain did bring all the Bush guys in later, I don't think that was the main reason. I am interested in other views on this.

Derek said...

Rob Portman is boring. did you hear him on meet the press. He would have been another boring white guy. If Palin hadn't been so unready to be VP she would have been an amazing pick. too bad for McCain

cowanl said...

This weekend in a 90% GOP Cen Tex precinct I saw the GOP precinct chair, state house candidate and bowheads walking to doors to pump up their base. If they are this unsure that their core supporters will turnout, they have given up on attracting the independents. After two bowheads with a clipboard left my nextdoor neighbor's door and saw my Obama/Biden yardsign they turned tail and hoofed off back down the street in their designer shoes.

justsomeguy said...

The VP pick was a clear pick by Schmidt who wanted to step on the Obama convention bounce. Like all Schmidt picks it was a short term deal and not thought through. Schmidt should not be allowed to run a campaign for dog catcher.

Portman, Pawlenty, and KAy Hutchinson would all have been better picks, even Romney. Palin was the worst pick they could make, and she will be blamed for the failure.

Palin 2012 won't make it past IA.

Derek said...

The pThe problem with the republican ticket is hat is a republican ticket. This election was never going to be won by a republican. They just got lucky that a black guy who was relatively unknown got the nomination and McCain, who had some crossover appeal was put on their ticket but even then it is a democratic year and that is all there is to it. It is noone's fault but Bush

jakam said...

And any Democrat should win by a landslide in this year.

No. The nation is too polarized for anyone to ever win such a landslide. Each candidate would win some 40% of the vote even if they ate a baby on TV.

McCain has already fallen to almost 40%, There isn't much further he can fall.

An electoral college landslide is much more possible though, and it's shaping up to be one.

justsomeguy said...

Obama is moving to the white vote to Clinton 1996 levels, with the AA vote and the youth vote could this be 1996?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=13

Clinton 379
Dole 159

Isn't McCain looking alot like Dole?

Gerbie said...

No. The nation is too polarized for anyone to ever win such a landslide. Each candidate would win some 40% of the vote even if they ate a baby on TV.


Unfortunately that is only true for GOP candidates. A DEM candidate eating a baby on TV would get no more then 1%. This tells you a lot about the GOP-base btw.

Foregone Conclusion said...

If any man could have won the election for the Republicans this year, it was McCain. He could have essentially run as a Bill Clinton type and won.

But did he do that? No, he's in the GOP cesspit appealing to racists, fools and liars. A bad deed is its own punishment, in politics as much as in life.

McCain might somehow be able to pull it off, though. He still has a little bit of maverick left, and so he could take advantage of a complete cataclysm.

mc9cain said...

Gerbie RFLMAO!

Real Joe - thanks for posting the news. I read the Pittsburgh Post Gazette endorsement - wow so well written. It's too bad these papers don't write the NEWS every day as well as they do in these endorsements. I'm not talking about the opinion - just the quality of the writing.

Vanessa said...

foregone,
If any man could have won the election this year I think it would have been Huckabee.

justsomeguy said...

What is the Post Gazzette history of endorsements? Are they repub or dem leaning?

Real Joe said...



106-year-old voter chooses Obama


A 106-year-old American nun living in a convent in Rome could well be the oldest person to vote in the 2008 US Presidential election.

Sister Cecilia Gaudette, who last voted for President Eisenhower in 1952, has registered to vote and says she will vote for Democrat Barack Obama.

Although hard of hearing, she keeps herself informed by reading newspapers and watching TV at the convent.

"I'm encouraged by Senator Obama," she says.

"I've never met him, but he seems to be a good man with a good private life. That's the first thing. Then he must be able to govern," she adds.

Sitting in her modest office in the convent where she has lived for the past 50 years, the diminutive nun appears uninterested in the row inside the American Catholic church over Senator Obama's support for pro-choice policies on abortion.

Asked about her hopes for the US under an Obama presidency, she says: "Peace abroad. I don't worry about the Iraq war because I can't do anything about it. Lord knows how it will end."

"It is very complicated," she said. "Those Eastern people are not like we are."

But despite taking part in the 4 November election, Sister Cecilia does not intend to return to the US.

"I have no plans for the future. I am too old to go back to the US. Life has changed too much."

But she still watches "very important events" on TV. The election comes under this category.

Link

wow !

god bless her

MikeJonesOK said...

Why isn't the PPP (D) CO poll not on RCP? We need another state blue on the map.

justsomeguy said...

vanessa-

No a singular chance in hell Huckabee wins. He had no foreign policy or economic experience and he would have had his lunch eaten by Obama.

Huck should have gotten some polish and foreign policy knowledge before putting his toe in the water.

Real Joe said...

RCP does not add PPP polls

bmcworldcitizen said...

The foreign perspective :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tug74L0w0WI

pygmy_owl said...

Just John: Yep. There's also a Table Mesa, Arizona and a Table Mesa, New Mexico, both of which I've been to. In Boulder, Table Mesa is just the name of a street.

John Nail said...

MrInsight22 - So you think that every poll in the country is wrong then? We have 6 daily polls and hundreds of state polls and they all are wrong?? Makes no sense..

One$Earned said...

Good article (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) shared by Real Joe...

^5 Real Joe...

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

PPP Lost all credibility when they published that Ohio Poll in June that had Obama up 11.

In that poll, they gave the Democrats a 25% edge in party id. In 2006 it was D+3. In 2004 it was R+5.

FreeThinker said...

For what it's worth, a state by state model for the electoral college, using the intrade contract prices as win pct probabilities, gives the following results for EV split. These probably bias against Obama in the states where he is in the 90's, since one would be risking 90+ to earn <=10. These numbers are as of session close after rebalancing on Oct.11 PDT. The Z values are not offsetting because they are relative to 270, not 269 hence, the probabilities don't add to 1, i.e. there's a 1% probability of a tie.
______________________
Electoral Vote Results
________Obama___McCain
ExVal___333.10__204.90
StdDev___78.13___78.13
95% UB__489.36__361.16
95% LB__176.84___48.64
P{W}______0.79____0.20
Z________-0.81____0.83
______________________

By way of comparison, I estimate, from Nate's numbers a z value of 1.334 and a standard deviation of about 60.2 to 269, or about 59 to 270. Basically, Nate's simulations produce a sharper peak than a normal distribution, probably due to the all or none allocation of EV's by state that are a part of his simulations.

Nate could you include a standard deviation with your simulation results?

markymark said...

I agree that McCain was the only GOPer who could have won this year. I think several candidates could have kept it closer than McCain is keeping it now, however. Huckabee is one, Romney or Giuliani maybe. I don't buy that any Democrat was bound to win in a landslide. I think generic ballots often say one thing that doesn't quite tally when you add a name. People have personal feelings, good and bad, about candidates and adding there personality to a previously generic ballot shifts the generic ballot. But also adding names to the poll makes it seem to matter more, so you don't give the same glib answer.

I am not quite sure what level of victory Obama will get, but its getting to the point where he should win. I personally would like to see a margin of victory close to, or exceeding Bill Clinton's 92 victory, but I would take any level of win.

mc9cain said...

If McCain loses, the Republican party identity is up for grabs.

And where do all the white collar greedy rich white men go now? (Unfortunately not prison as those in political office will escape any personal liabiity for their 8 years of white collar crimes.)

Maybe (hopefully) THEY will become the minority voice in America and we can ignore them as long as they have ignored and taken advantage of others.

Derek said...

Everytime we have a recession we have a changing of the gaurd. 1920/1932/1960/1980/1992 and 2008 will be next

DCM in FL said...

yet another well-written story, Sean.

I think you are actually getting better as the trip progresses.

these everyday local tales are documenting the "why" of what is about to happen on November 4th

this is a true grassroots movement only partially due to Barack Hussein Obama - but personified by BHO

more about how after 8+ years [going back to the '94 GOP revolution] - ENOUGH IS ENOUGH !!!

and you were rather kind to the GOPers & McCain when it would be understandably easy as shooting fish in a barrel [or wolves from an airplane] to take cheap shots...

bravo

STepper said...

@Vanessa

I don't think Hickabee could have carried this for the Repubs, either. He is truly a hick on foreign policy matters, and his flat tax is regressive and makes about as much sense as flat earth. He is a consummate politician with a good ear, but he's the wrong message at a difficult time.

As for your question in a different thread - lawyer for 38 years.

Akoolromeo said...

MrInsight22 said...
A Gallup pollster on the radio this week said that instead of the usual 40% non-participation rate, right now 80% of the persons reached by phone are refusing to participate. This could be skewing the polls to Obama since old people and conservatives are the groups least likely to cooperate with pollsters -- and young Obama supporters are proud to talk with pollsters.

********
I'm an Obama supporter, who hangs up on the pollsters. In fact, I hang up on EVERYONE. If I pick up the phone and I immediately don't hear a voice I reconize, I hang it up.I've get numerous calls a week from some research group, and as soon as they say research, it's click.
Generally speaking, it has been my experience that Conservatives don't believe in the trustworthiness of polls. I have heard some say they purposely lie to the pollsters about who they are voting for, just to throw off the numbers.
Since the Zogby's polls seems to be pretty evenly split between Rep & Dem, it's probably more accurate, since many Democrats vote Republican, especially in the South, where many of the older "Democrats were Democrats pre-1980, before those voters started gravitating to the Republican Party. They just never changed their registration. I Rather have a poll underestimate Obama's numbers, than over estimate.

markymark said...

Yeah I think Obama might have had fun opposing a flat tax rate, especially in economic collapse times. I think as well one thing in Johny Macs favor was that he does bring a level of experience to the table, but not so much experience more familiarity. Of all the GOP candidates for this year, only Giuliani could have matched McCain's familiarity, and he had the problem of having been only a mayor (fair enough mayor of a massive city, but mayor nonetheless) McCain was the best package for the GOP in 2008, but I tend to think the McCain the GOP needed was the 2000 brand, the 2008 brand has proved to be tooo close to Bush on the War and nowhere on the economy.

markymark said...

Not seen anyone posting the Ras numbers for today,

Not much change recently at all, Obama 51 McCain 45 today, 6 point lead and race VERY static. The attacks of the last week have not done much at all.

Christina said...

Hi all, long time reader, first time poster.

This is yet another interesting "On The Road" segment, thank you for these. I hesitate to read too much into the fact that the McCain office is closed. In such an overwhelmingly Republican town, wouldn't it stand to reason that they probably feel, with some reason, that they don't need to work that hard there? Perhaps they are concentrating their efforts in less "red" parts of the state.

It would be fascinating, after the election, to find out just how these various towns voted. I would love to see what inroads Obama was able to make, if any.

Re Robert's suggestion to call McCain's headquarters to politely shame volunteers: I don't think that's a good idea at all. People have their own heartfelt reasons for why they are supporting McCain, and I just think any shaming of any volunteer is a bad thing (unless that particular person has done something wrong.) My mother has been asked several times to volunteer for a candidate but she is afraid of getting cursed out or having phones slammed in her ear, and I just don't think that any volunteer doing the hard work of supporting a candidate should have to face that. There are other ways to express displeasure.

Derek said...

McCain is a republican no matter whether it was in 2000 or 2008. At the end of the day a republican was unlikely to win before the economy hit but now that it has it won't happen. McCain cannot win without cheating.

markymark said...

derek,

I agree about McCain but I think the circa 2000 insurgent McCain might have been able to make a better case for just a different type of conservatism.

Peggy VA said...

I live in a quiet neighborhood in Northern Va. and was so happy when I received my Obama/Biden sign and within 24 hrs is was gone. I was upset but my Republican husband who is also a retired Naval Officer who backs Obama was more upset than I was that somebody took my sign. I believe that Virginia will go for Obama because of the military vote for him.