“In this country sometimes we forget that we have the capacity to shape our own destiny.”
– Birch Bayh, Lafayette, Indiana 10/5/08
Another fall weekend, another two heavy days of doorknocking. In Lafayette, according to Mia Lewis, a volunteer team leader who's seen many cycles here, "it's like we're in an alternate universe." Barack Obama is here to play -- hard.
Yesterday, we stopped in Lake County -- and we haven't heard the last of that location in this series -- to the sight of giant mounds of returned canvass walk clipboards. We weren't sure what was more impressive, the hundreds of stacked clipboards, or the discovery that this was only half of the Gary office's daily haul. With a giant engine of potential Democratic canvassers in neighboring Chicago, as well as an even larger in-state volunteer base, Lake County's volunteer energy has to worry Republican strategists who need Indiana to stay red. If it doesn't yet, it should.
Here in Lafayette, in Mia Lewis' "alternate universe," the volunteers have begun to run out of turf -- because it's already been canvassed. Although John McCain has only one field office open in the state, Barack Obama has two on the same block. One is a large phone bank office, and a few doors down on the corner is the canvass staging area. We heard stories from volunteers who sometimes canvass because the phone bank is so frequently packed to capacity that if they want to volunteer, knocking on doors is the only option.
Although the Purdue University volunteer effort is robust and proud, it may be more remarkable that it's not really the student population dominating the volunteer effort. Purdue's Students for Barack Obama has an entirely separate office and canvass staging area. From what we observed, many more locals who are nonstudents drive the ground effort.
In 2004, George Bush won Tippecanoe County by a 3-2 margin and 10,079 votes. Tippecanoe accounted for 2.1% of the statewide total. Barack Obama competed hard here during the primary and beat Hillary Clinton by a similar margin.
Retired Senator Birch Bayh has been on a surrogate tour of Indiana, and spoke to approximately 40 volunteers here in the Lafayette office a short while ago. Bayh, legendary for his support of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and 1965 Voting Rights Act, and the primary architect of both the 25th and 26th Amendments (not since the founders can one man claim that distinction), gave a moving speech to the assembled group. Bayh was the principal sponsor of the Equal Rights Amendment and highly influential in getting Title IX passed. He is also the guy who pulled a seriously injured Ted Kennedy from the wreckage of a small engine plane crash in 1964. The guy has been around.
He talked about his own grassroots campaign that first elected him to the US Senate in 1962. What he's seen with Barack Obama's operation in the state of Indiana this time around reminds him of that grassroots surge that won him the Senate seat in this traditionally red state. After speaking about the value of an engaged citizenry, and the consequences of detaching from the public policy arena (the previous eight years being his primary example), Bayh made a prediction.
On the night of November 4, at that early six o' clock hour that is almost always an immediate blot of red in a largely empty map (Indiana reports early), America is going to see something different this time.
A dot of blue.
“With a good conscience our only sure reward, with history the final judge of our deeds, let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God's work must truly be our own.”
– Birch Bayh, quoting the final line of JFK’s inauguration speech.



227 comments
I know from living a year in southern IN that there are some racial attitudes in that part of the state that will be difficult for the Obama campaign to overcome, but this report makes me optimistic. (I'm sure in those parts the IU students and other Bloomingtonians are doing their share.)
My position on Bayh as VP was, only if you mean Birch Bayh!
I live in West Lafayette. I've long resigned myself to Indiana being a red state, and I still am skeptical that Obama can take it. But, I have seen a _lot_ of canvassing in town, and even though there are a number of campaign signs for Republicans around here, it's mostly local candidates, not McCain.
Althought Tippecanoe has a university, Purdue is not terribly liberal. Heck, West Lafayette elected a Republican mayor last year.
I think if the spot of blue is there, then the election is over. I just *cannot* see any way for McCain to win the election if Indiana goes to Obama. Not only could it take the place of Colorado in the standard Kerry+ NM+ IA + CO winning combination, I think that at minimum he has to be taking Ohio and probably taken most of the states that are considered battleground by *anyone*. IN for Obama more or less equals a landslide.
Outstanding Sean. Thank you immensely.
I'll take that dot of blue.
I recall around the time of the Dem's convention, the Governor of Indiana on The Daily Show mentioned that Indiana could go blue this year. Jon Stewart's response was, "Really? No. I mean, really?"
It seemed unlikely at the time. Crazy how things change.
Another wonderful post.
Did you hear anything about voter supression and early voting?
"On the night of November 4, at that early six o' clock hour that is almost always an immediate blot of red in a largely empty map (Indiana reports early), America is going to see something different this time.
A dot of blue."
YES! This is so incredible. We are working so hard to win this election. I love this series!!!
Indiana and Virginia are the earliest states to close the polls. My guess is that both will be "too close to call." And that will be the start of a long night for McCain (or, actually, a short one.
In fact, I predict Indiana and Missouri will be the closest races of the night.
I'd love an Indiana-shopped dot of blue. But I'd also be VERY happy with this comment from the networks:
"The State of Indiana: Too early/close to call."
Because if Indiana is too close to call, that means Ohio will be blot of blue!
IN is my first bellwether to watch on November 4. If it is even threatening to go blue (we may not know 'til later, because IIRC Lake County closes at 7PM eastern/6PM central, an hour after most of the rest of the state, but it should go heavily for Obama when it is counted), then it'll be a long night for the Republicans.
I believe Virginia's polls also close at 6PM central time. If those two get called for Obama, then it's a time for celebration and parties for Democrats, but a funereal dirge for Republicans.
It really doesn't look like there is any way for McCain to win the election, period. And he would be a terrible choice as President based on personality and intelligence alone, never mind his stand on the issues and complete lack of moral character.
A career criminal who text messaged me a death and stabbing threat against Bristol Palin and her unborn child is now being investigated as the driver who caused an alcohol related three vehicle head on collision near Santa Barbara Thursday afternoon-the complete story is at my blogs:
www.myspace.com/370392338
Also at my blogs-a 14 year old girl is raped when a Pasadena hospital screws up beyond belief-what would happen to her in Sarah Palin's America? and Cutting Confessions the bizarre love story of a midwestern man and an abused and artistic Beverly Hills girl brought together by seemingly impossible acts of fate set in Beverly Hills, Pasadena and the Las Vegas Strip.
I'm not sure if an Obama win in Indiana necessarily means a win in Ohio. McCain's spent time and money on Ohio; he has not on Indiana. That might be enough to make up the difference between the two states.
blogwhoring is teh lame
The plan to steal the next election:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html
Yes -- Indiana turns blue instantly (or at worst does not turn red instantly)as your first result on election night, and the game is over before it even starts.
Down here in Crawfordsville, 30 miles south of Lafayette and a very red place normally, we've canvassed, and our phone bankers are running out of people to call in Montgomery County. If we can boot Steve Buyer out (go Nels Akerson!) along with turning IN blue, it'll be a great great night.
A dot of blue...
From your mouth Sen Bayh to God's ears. Amen.
"I think that at minimum he has to be taking Ohio and probably taken most of the states that are considered battleground by *anyone*. IN for Obama more or less equals a landslide."
Possibly, but I'm not so sure. As Sean is detailing here, Obama has a HUGE ground game here while McCain has virtually none. That differential alone might be worth a few points. Plus, IN borders IL, and Obama has overperformed in states bordering IL both in the primaries and in polling for the general election. Though unlikely, we could see IN go for Obama and OH go for McCain. I agree that if Obama wins IN that basically secures the election for him, though. McCain's only hope would be to flip PA, and that is highly unlikely.
So, IN and VA's polls close at 7 eastern? Anyone know which other states close before 8? I'm probably going to be awfully impatient for results that night.
Glad Indiana impressed on behalf of the Obama campaign. I'm in Lake County & it's quite blue. The rest of the state is a different story, so we'll see how it all turns out.
Top quote can't be Birch Bayh. Or the date is way off.
And he cna't be speaking to any campaigns volunteers.
I live right in the middle of Lake County and mark my words..obama will either win or lose due to this county. Marion will be a blowout for him...Lake is the 2nd largest county in the state and always tilts blue. If he pads the margins he'll make up the difference up here. Based on the people that live here, hes got a shot, and ive seen the ground operation in action. They arent leaving anything to chance up here.
Indiana would be great.
On a side note, Obama has created a new website HERE It seems they will have a video up tomorrow at noon!!! Oh the suspense.
In addition to what I said above...I remember the kerry cycle, the gore cycle, and both clinton cycles. I have NEVER seen the kind of ground effort that obama has going in indiana right now. Its nuts.
Being a Purdue alum, I can tell you that Purdue is definitely more conservative than your average college campus.
Unless Indiana has changed a lot in the past ten years, the fact that McCain even has to THINK about defending Indiana means he's in pretty big trouble. Although perhaps Indiana hasn't changed. Maybe it's the GOP that's changed.
Wow, great post on elder Bayh. Good to hear such an aggressive and organized operation is in IN. I feel good about 29 days from now...
Blows me away that Obama could win Indiana.
Sedi: There are 5 states that have Land borders with Illinois: Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky and Indiana. While he is certainly doing better than expected in Iowa given his National numbers, he is doing worse in Kentucky, and I'm not really sure on Missouri and Wisconsin.
Similarly, I'm not sure that McCain is doing that much better than expected by the National Polls in the States that border Arizona: California, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico.
You can add Michigan and Colorado respectively to the arguments on each side (a border on the lake and a single point border), but I'm not sure it makes a difference.
randy
When a conservative newspaper publishes ideas like these you know he's about to get hammered (McCain)
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/10/05/2008-10-05_john_mccain_needs_to_be_about_substance_.html
Having been on campus at Purdue in '04, I remember that Bush won both campus precincts about 50 to 47. Purdue is a pretty conservative campus, we don't call IU the "People's Republic of Bloomington" for nothing.
I've driven through West Lafayette and it's nice to see that it's possibly turning blue.
That area is very famous historically. Prophetstown is there, which was the Native American community of Techumsah. Of course William Henry Harrison defeated them, hence the campaign slogan:
Tippencoe, and Tyler too!
It's the Public, Stupid!
I was born and raised in northern Indiana and left when I was still in my teens. I could not have dreamed a day might come when we would even be talking about a canidate who is AA taking Indiana, and of course just a democrat is something amazing for me as we lived in a rural area that was not racially tolerant at all. I am in a hotel room with my daughter tonight doing some traveling. We left Asheville, NC today just before the Obama speech, wow people were excited and we will be here in Tn. during the debates on Tuesday. In that we are in a hotel room I have had to hear bits and pieces of Fox on TV tonight and they had a program on about domestic terrorism and what little I did hear left me shaken with fear as it seemed way over the top. Thought I would come back to 538 to calm myself down and this article is so upbeat. MSM all over Palin's remarks, talks about the RNC asking where Barack's money comes from, the Fox program which I think had Hannity's evil voice narrating it. How much can people take before they swing against Barack I wonder/ worry. I feel so much better reading Sean's report from the road! Surely you cannot keep this much goodness down. Thanks to whoever posted the link to the Rolling Stone article. Much of it I knew as a VN vet but it is really something.
The keys to a Lake County blowout will be to guarantee turnout in northern lake county, via bussing/carpooling/early voting, and to convince enough in southern lake county to vote their interests and go with obama.
Gary/East Chicago/Hammond/Munster will be Obama Blowouts
Whiting/Highland/Schererville/Dyer will be slight to Obama
St.John/Crown Point/Cedar Lake/Lowell will lean to McCain, increasingly so as you move along that list.
The benefit here is that the Blowout and Lean Obama towns far exceed the population of the McCain leaners...with the exception perhaps of Crown Point and St. John, but they have traditional blue demographics there, but they are blue dog demographics, race could be an issue in those two.
Naraht,
Okay, I'll grant you that Obama isn't performing well in KY and likely won't (I'd forgotten about it since the border is pretty small). In the primaries, Obama won easily in WI, comfortably in IA, and narrowly in MO and IN. Yet he outperformed his polls in several of these states. Demographically, IN seemed very well suited to Clinton, but Obama kept it very close.
Most commentators have MO turning increasingly red, yet Obama has kept the race there fairly close. He is clearly doing better in WI than Kerry or Gore did (both were squeakers). Bush won by double-digits, yet Obama is a little worse that even money to win the state right now. Bordering on IL does seem to matter, though I'll grant you that it is no guarantee of success. Troops of loyal volunteers traveling to campaign for Obama probably has something to do with it.
I agree that there is no evidence of McCain overperforming in states bordering AZ. I'm not there that there is much evidence of McCain significantly overperforming in AZ itself, for that matter.
JustJohn, the states that have their final polls close at 7PM eastern are Vermont, Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky.
The thing with Indiana is that MOST of the state's polls close at 6PM eastern (all but the NW tip that is in the central time zone). Used to be that networks would call a state when most of the polls were closed. After Florida in 2000, that has changed so now they don't call the state until ALL the polls have closed.
Still, Indiana and Virginia are two crucial states that close early. And Ohio closes at 7:30 eastern (along with West Virginia).
FWIW, 16 states close at 8 eastern.
Polls close at 7:00ET in VA (I think IN is 6:30?). I don't think the margin of victory will be big enough either way to call those states early. Though even Indiana being too close to call when the polls close would be a huge change - it got called at 6:30 sharp in 2004.
If Virginia follows past patterns (i.e. Webb in 2006), we'll be waiting a couple of hours for a result, until precincts in Richmond and the outer DC suburbs report. In the event that the election hinges on the outcome in VA, learn to love these names: Fairfax, Loudoun & Prince William. They'll be the new Broward.
HEY GUYS
Due to McCain linking Obama with terrorists, Obama is releasing a KEATING FIVE Multi-media video on Monday!!!
WATCH AND DONATE!!
http://www.keatingeconomics.com/
HERE IS A PREVIEW. THE ENTIRE VIDEO WILL BE RELEASED ON MONDAY!!!!!
We all knew keating was coming after Palin started up the terrorist line. Im beyond glad that unlike Kerry, obama wont take the GOP's crap sitting down.
Indiana turning blue = landslide.
While obama's support is certainly broad, playing offense in many red states(VA,NC,IN,MO,CO), his support is not deep. While Obama's move in PA and MI is encouraging we have not put away the red states such as VA,CO,FL,OH. Real Clear Politics (While right leaning) has Obama holding a 2-5 point lead in these states but leading by 6 nationally.
If Obama's lead remains 5-7 nationally on election day a land-slide is in order, but even Obama's folks think the race will likely tighten. If the pre-Nov 4 polls are Obama 2-4 points ahead then it's likely most of those red states Obama needs will be toss ups. Yes Obama has many paths, but this election is far from over.
The Obama camp believes they have a lot more support than the polls suggest. If this is true, then this election is truly over. In any event, I would like to see Indiana blue. It would be a symbol of Obama's strength. Reaching out and grabbing a deep red state, a state republicans said would not go blue, a state where republican strategists laughed at Obama's "Waisted" dollars and staff.
I want to see the landslide. I want to see 350+ EV victory. I want to see the voters of the country stand up and tell the GOP to take its right wing ideology and American-dividing tactics back to Dixie where it belongs. I want to see Wolf Blitzer say Indiana is "Too close to call" on Nov 4.
I want to see Indiana blue
To liberal_defender_of_freedom
OMG! I'm soooo glad the Keating scandal is out!
I posted on an earlier thread of this site that Obama should call McCain out on Keating because it is totally related to our nations current economic meltdown!
I don't think anyone is going to say Obama is weak after this. I knew he had it in him.
Wow. This is going to get ugly.
Just in to comment on the question about states closing early. I can't vouch for other states, but North Carolina closes at 7:00 EST officially, but that is misleading. Under state law if you are in line to vote at 7:00 the poll stays open until you vote.
I had the unlucky distinction of being the North Carolina Democratic Party poll observer at the last poll open in the state in 2004. The last voter didn't get through until 9PM and the state had been called by the networks an hour earlier.
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
Obama 355, McCain 183
Oct 5 Polling Update
I was there this weekend. I am from Illinois and there were a bunch of us. Most of the doors we knocked were already leaning Obama
There is so much pro-Obama energy here in Monroe County, Indiana. Sure, Indiana University and Bloomington are the bluest part of Indiana -- but the Obama campaign is doing its best to get every possible resident to cast a vote for Sen. Obama.
My wife, who has never volunteered for a campaign in her 40+ years of life, is doing so on a regular basis. And she's hearing from working class people who are 50-60 years old who have never voted are going to cast a ballot for Obama.
Also, an Indiana Republican Party insider has been urging McCain to get to Indiana -- because apparently Governor Mitch Daniels (Republican) poll numbers show 15-20% intend to vote Obama.
Indiana, our Indiana, is in play and will be the first great signal to the world that America is on a new course.
I'm currently a student at Purdue, and I must say, the Obama volunteer presence is strong. The last couple weeks there have been numerous Obama tables set up around campus everyday signing people up to vote, as well as people with voter registration paperwork on clipboards going up and down the lines outside dining halls and the larger lecture halls. That's why I'm voting in Indiana instead of voting absentee in Texas (for Obama, of course).
By comparison, there's almost no Republican presence. Not to say there are no Republicans, far from it, but I've yet to see a single red volunteer.
It is Official. The Repubs are a Party of Babies.
G.O.P. to File Complaint Over Donations
Instead of yard signs. Maybe the repubs need rattles and bottles.
Hard to believe Birch was defeated by freaking Dan Quayle. Shows what a transformational election can do for down ticket races. Hopefully we will see the reverse this cycle.
To Colin, and everyone in Indiana or in any other swing state:
Do not be optimistic, be positive. No matter what the polls or predictions say, do not be pessimistic. VOTE. And tell anyone you know who supports Obama to do the same.
And Colin, does everyone with health insurance from working at Purdue know how much their taxes are going to go up under McCain? I know that a single mother working at my college will see her taxable income go up by almost $2000 under the McCain "plan", but most people don't know how much their health benefit actually costs compared to the proposed McCain deduction ... including McCain.
I wonder if McCain knows how much his taxes will go up if his Senate health plan gets taxed?
Good question for the next debate.
Ahem... fwiw, on the 29th Rasmussen had TX, to just barely single digits, 52% to 43%. Obama is not going to win TX, but McCain might have to defend it...
On the 30th Ras had MS 52% to 44%, and 8 point diff, same thing as wi TX
The 24th had WV within 6 points, on the 30th GA was within 7, The first of Oct had MT within 8.
Now, I don't think Obama is going to win any of those, but the almost closeness of these strong Republican states is fun to see. One major gaffe by McCain could be the difference between a solid win to a devistating win.
To oct...rattles and bottles, ROFL!
edgeways,
I was thinking the same thing. Don't forget about Louisiana
It's official: Obama landslide, unless the republicans steal the election.
Also, come back mule rider! :(
Great to see you guys in Indiana and read all the comments. I'm a volunteerwith Washington Township (north central Indianapolis) for Obama. Are you coming to the rally Wednesday??
I'm not sure I like Obama bringing up Keating. Isn't that just going to, in turn, bring up Wright? Not that Keating isn't a more indicting connection than Wright, but Wright is also black.
I have been going to Indiana and I am telling you, it is a true battleground state. Lake County, where my in laws live is hustling, HARD for every voter to be registered. This is no joke. Obama's masterful ground game is just like Iowa, which I witness first hand. Hard, tough, committed and one that can WIN. I am going to Indiana every weekend until election day. If we want to win this, we got to fight for it. Great analysis, Sean.
You guys,
I have a bad feeling about this Keating Five website.
Is Barack really going to go on the attack like this in the last month? I think it could turn against him.
Plus, McCain was dismissed from the case and he can turn right around and say so.
I think this is a bad idea.
It's needed. People need to start doubting McCain like so many still doubt Obama.
couchpotatoxxx12 said...
It's needed. People need to start doubting McCain like so many still doubt Obama.
Why? We're already ahead. Why go on the attack now when he's deflected everything thrown at him so far?
Is this in response to the terrorist accusation? He's gonna try and trump McCain? This is a dangerous game.
As a resident of Tippecanoe County, I've seen firsthand the outpouring of support for Obama.
With Purdue as a huge resource for Democrats to tap, I really think the county is going to go blue in a way that will turn some heads.
The common talk in the 80s was that the GOP was out to get Bitch Bayh first and foremost. The newspaper dynasty of Indiana brought the goods to achieve this belonged to the Quayles. Their payola was to make their own Dan Quayle VP under Bush. It is the only thing that could make that Quayle designation plausible. America lost one of its best public servants in Birch Bayh and got Dan Quayle.
@Joey
I'm worried about this too. It could needlessly legitimize the attacks against Obama. It could also just turn people against him who have seen him staying above these sorts of politics.
I will grant that while it's mudslinging, it's ON MESSAGE mudslinging, but this is a dangerous dangerous game, and has yet to even be seen as necessary.
Could America see this as kicking a man while he's down? Could this help McCain rebrand himself as this reborn champion for the little guy? It's sketchy.
Obama has take foreign contributions from terrorist states and is now refusing to disclose them.
This will crush him.
Jaime,
I see your point, but it's not like it's not a relative attack.
This is Obama's ace in the hole. It's not as though he's bringing it up out of the blue.
McCain was named as one of the Keating 5 and the bailout then is the same as the bailout today.
McCain is merely throwing Rezko's and Ayers's name around. It's old mud that's purely subjective (at best) and its not going to stick.
Talk about old mud. Keating was 25 years ago and he was completely cleared. He won't even respond.
On the Keating website: I actually think it depends on the audience. This is a website, remember. It's not a speech. It's not an ad. It's not a news article. It's available for interested and self-selected parties to dig into the Keating Five stuff if they'd like, if they so choose. Youtube videos abound about Rezko, Raines, Fannie/Freddie, Ayers. This is just another of them (though it's paid for by the Obama campaign).
In other words, I think it'll serve as a counterbalance to the stupid Rezko/Ayers connections that the rightnuts are trying to draw. Those are embarrassingly tenuous. If someone hears such things, they can quickly find a relatively slick overview of the Keating 5 history that adds counterbalance to the Rezko/Ayers stories.
Having said this, going negative always worries me. It probably would have been better if someone at BraveNewFilms had done it.
Why is Sean Hannity hiding his identity here? (Jack Not Very Nimble.)
You like the numbers, Sean? You nit wit.
Check out this story from Norway. It really made me smile.
Lol, if you think Barack is going to lose support for bringing up Keating when McCain is going Ayers...you need to rethink that one.
Also, if you have a few extra dollars you were going to throw at BHO, might as well do it tomorrow. The Obama Minute in the primaries only raised $250k and got some MSM blurbs...if it hits some crazy figure this time around, it will certainly make the tickers and, god willing, make McCain squirm a little more.
Obama is not going to talk about it himself (i don't think), this Keating Five website supposed to be passed amongst his supporters.
I'm sorry, but Obama can not sit back and be called a terrorist.
Leads can quickly evaporate.
Why waste the ace in the hole at the beginning of October and not the week before the election?
My only hope is that Obama is releasing this tomorrow to get McCain into a total tizzy for the debate on Tuesday. Then plan to keep pushing the button on the issue and make McCain flip out in front of everyone.
THAT, my friends, would be THE nail in the coffin.
Speaking about terrorists supporting Presidential candidates, how about G. Gordon Liddy -- nit wit Sean Hannity and perjurer Ollie North's hero?
I predict we'll see a little bit of Liddy splashed around, too.
Obama will not be swiftboated. Especially by people who aren't half as good at it as Rove was.
Schmidt just made another error of judgment. Possibly the 10th in the last month.
Are we sure this website is even connected to the Obama campaign? There are actually some factual errors on there and the campaign has been pretty careful about such things.
This is sad, from the news.
Now we know what Sarah Palin reads: the homilies on Starbucks cups.
Critics panned the Alaska governor for being unable in her Katie Couric interview to name any publications she peruses.
At a California rally on Saturday, however, Palin told an adoring crowd she'd recently seen a quotation she liked on her cup of Starbucks mocha.
As it turns out, Palin misquoted both Albright and her mocha cup
"Talk about old mud. Keating was 25 years ago and he was completely cleared. He won't even respond."
Ayers' crimes took place when Obama was 8 years old. And Ayers was cleared. And Obama hardly had an association with Ayers. This is peanuts compared to McCain's association with Charles Keating.
Don't you think McCain intervening on behalf of a mentor and major sponsor who also turned out to be a corrupt banker will have some relevance today? And don't forget Cindy McCain's involvement. The Senate whitewashed the investigation to protect their own, but that doesn't mean McCain wasn't guilty.
Like others here I'm not sure this is a good strategic move, but have no doubt that Keating is fair game.
I don't think Obama supporters need to worry about Obama going negative; remember, Obama has been running negative ads on John McCain for weeks. The key for Obama's reputation is his debate appearances and his campaign stops, where he always appears on an even keel and likeable. This Keating stuff is a well-done way for Obama supporters to fight back against the Ayers bullshit. Obama himself isn't going to bring this stuff up unless asked, and I'm sure Plouffe and Axelrod are prepping him on how to answer every single question in North Carolina now. =
The Keating site looks to be very issues driven, specifically focusing on McCain's links to the S&L failures of the 1980s.
Since it is an *issues based* attack, instead of purely character based, it'll probably be viewed in a better light.
that said, i stil feel nervous about the brinksmanship going on here. attacking the past isn't really a plan for the future.
so, the keating stuff will work if done well, but is still pretty risky.
"My only hope is that Obama is releasing this tomorrow to get McCain into a total tizzy for the debate on Tuesday."
Good point Joey. McCain is VERY sensitive about the Keating 5 scandal and this is surely going to get under his skin.
I grew up in Indiana and met Birch Bayh at Purdue in the early 70's. I was very impressed with him even then. We used to say that Indiana is the northern most southern state. It was always a hotbed for the John Birch Society and the KKK. I remember living in Indianapolis in the early 60's and being told that I would have a bad reputation for having friends that were black. I also remember being an antiwar protester at Purdue in 1968. What a row that caused with my family. I never believed that I would see Indiana vote for a democrat. It would be fantastic to see. The world really does change. I am amazed.
IN is the first state to report and if one of those pundits say "Barack Obama has WON INDIANA" I am going straight to sleep, there will be no reason to watch the rest of it, it will be a landslide for O.
Besides Charles Keating - which is more than fair game - the WaPo is running a new story on Mac's first marriage/divorce:
@ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100502589.html?hpid=topnews
'The Separate Peace of John And Carol'
"In early 1980, John McCain was a man in transition -- and in a hurry.
Nine months earlier, at a cocktail reception in Hawaii, he met a glamorous young heiress named Cindy Lou Hensley and, by all accounts, fell instantly in love. McCain spent months flying from Washington to Arizona pursuing this new relationship. Soon, the 43-year-old naval attache and his 25-year-old sweetheart were engaged.
There was only one complication: McCain was still married.
...According to public records, he and Cindy received a marriage license in Maricopa County, Ariz., in early March 1980, four weeks before his divorce from Carol was final.
...Over the years, when the subject of his divorce has come up, McCain has responded with contrition and remorse, blaming himself for the marriage's failure. During a campaign forum in August, he called the end of his first marriage "my greatest moral failure."
=====================================
the original MAVERICK indeed...
On this day in history, Oct. 5 2004, George W. Bush was leading John Kerry in state polling by a projected electoral vote count of 296 to 238.
For final results, please see the presidential inauguration of 2005.
That post was for you, jack; love ya buddy!
"Since it is an *issues based* attack, instead of purely character based, it'll probably be viewed in a better light."
McCain's connection to Keating (his political patron) was also MUCH stronger than Obama's connection to Ayers (weak to non-existent).
Is anyone really surprised that we're hearing about Keating now? Or that it would be Obama's first and best reply? Way back when the primaries were finished, I had a feeling it would be risky for McCain to try this move because of his history with Keating. And that was before the financial crisis due to deregulation and failed banks.
It can be seen as relevant and is already being talked about elsewhere. It is so obvious, it would be hard for anyone to criticize Obama using it, especially since it was McCain's camp who brought up the terrorist thing.
In fact, Obama would probably be perceived as being a weak pushover if he didn't do this.
No danger here for Obama, unless he tries to bring up other scandals. But he probably won't need to.
"My only hope is that Obama is releasing this tomorrow to get McCain into a total tizzy for the debate on Tuesday."
First thing I thought of. The timing is no accident.
Remember that Obama warned months ago that if they kept up with the guilt by association bullshit that Keating Five was fair game. And it is.
Calling him a terrorist? Sarah Palin can go fuck herself.
I always thought it was very odd that it took so long to formalize the succession. The death of Harrison one month into his term started the tradition, after much debate, but was never made formal.
Also, it's important to note that the attack here is really a policy attack that they are connecting to the recent Wall Street crisis. Very different than vague "associations with terrorists" attacks that a lot of people have already seen and discounted.
Folks, this is great news coming out of Tippecanoe County, Indiana includes the cities of Lafayette and West Lafayette, IN.
This article affirms the post I made earlier today under "New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup".
Seeing Indiana blue would be priceless!
I don't think that website is from the Obama campaign. For one, it doesn't say it is. For two, a whois shows that it was registered via GoDaddy.com by a proxy registration service in Arizona. Not a likely way for the Obama campaign to set up a website. They run everything through barackobama.com.
This is either a third party site or a trojan horse campaign stunt.
pygmy_owl, brian, joey, lani, newt, et al. ---
CALM DOWN. People are not going to think, "Wow, Obama is attacking McCain on his shady S&L cronies? Fuck that negativity, I'm going for Palin and her charming allegations that Barack chums with terrorists!"
"I don't think that website is from the Obama campaign."
Brian, go to the Obama website. The video is front and center and they link to the website. You can actually watch the preview on the Obama website.
as for Palin, what can she do except stir the pot ???
her own chicken are coming home to roost since Troopergate is about to really heat up now that the staff is supposedly ready to comply with the subpoenas.
that just leaves the 1st dude & the beauty queen loser as the only ones defying their subpoenas - why that sounds just the the Bush/Cheney gang !!!
such mavericks [oops - gotta take a drink]
Busting out Keating 5 the day before the next debate = This shit just got real, real fast.
They've got to be trying to psyche McCain out before the Town Hall.
Thanks for the tip David.
Then they need to check their facts. They say McCain was reprimanded by the Ethics Committee when that isn't true. That will come back to haunt the Obama campaign. Very dumb move to do this without being on completely solid factual ground. First blunder by the campaign in quite a while.
Some months ago I watched a documentary on Mc Cain on CNN ... they had one on Obama as well. During that documentary Sen. Mc Cain refers to Keating 5 as being worse than Viet Nam, worse than being a POW... talks about it being a terrible period in his life. I really want those exact quotes... did anyone else see it?
The website says paid for by Obama...just scroll down a little. It will all be fine, don't get your briefs in a bunge!
~Special council for the Trees...
Hey Sub:
What the heck gave you the impression that I wasn't calm? I offered that suggestion because the video appears on a website that people can access at their will. It's not an ad so much as a preemptive response to the smear attacks that are about to rain down from McDickhead and his raving band of moosecocksuckers.
It acts effectively as a counterbalance to the garbage that McCain is pulling. There's no freaking out there.
"My only hope is that Obama is releasing this tomorrow to get McCain into a total tizzy for the debate on Tuesday."
Honestly wouldn't surprise me. The guy is strategically just ridiculous. He was three steps ahead of Clinton in the primaries, he's farther ahead of McCain. The election isn't over by any means, but I've been impressed. And politicians, being one of the lowest orders of mammals, very rarely impress me.
Is there a legal definition for reprimand in this situation? I thought the committee told him he used poor judgment or something like that.
I guess it depends on what you consider a reprimand. Is there an official distinction?
"Senators John Glenn and John McCain were cleared of having acted improperly but were criticized for having exercised 'poor judgment'."
More from Wikipedia:
According to the Los Angeles Times, "McCain was the only one of the five senators with close personal ties to Keating."[31] McCain and Keating had become personal friends following their initial contacts in 1981,[11] and McCain was the closest socially to Keating of the five senators.[32] ... Between 1982 and 1987, McCain had received $112,000 in political contributions from Keating and his associates.[33] In addition, McCain's wife Cindy McCain and her father Jim Hensley had invested $359,100 in a Keating shopping center in April 1986, a year before McCain met with the regulators. McCain, his family, and their baby-sitter had made nine trips at Keating's expense, sometimes aboard Keating's jet. Three of the trips were made during vacations to Keating's opulent Bahamas retreat at Cat Cay. McCain did not pay Keating (in the amount of $13,433) for some of the trips until years after they were taken, when he learned that Keating was in trouble over Lincoln.[7][34] Because of these connections, Phoenix New Times in 1989 stated McCain was the "most reprehensible" of the five[35] and was had financial connections that the other Senators did not have to Keating.[36]
Pretty damning.
The website says paid for by Obama
Heh, my firefox "no script" extension cut that off.
Brian, from what I understand McCain was "reprimanded," but never charged or convicted of a crime. So they are correct on that one.
DAMM, I was gonna submit a Q for the town hall 'debate' to ask about the Keating 5 scandal & why the electoral should trust Mac with the keys to the national treasury next year when he admits that this S&L/banking scandal was his personal failing...
but they have already cut off the submission for new Q's...
@ http://www.myspace.com/mydebates
I hope someone gets a chance to ask that Q live during the town hall !
As for the definition of reprimand, Alan Cranston was officially reprimanded by the Ethics Committee. So McCain was not, at least by negative implication. It would be more accurate to say he was criticized by the committee.
"As for the definition of reprimand, Alan Cranston was officially reprimanded by the Ethics Committee. So McCain was not, at least by negative implication. It would be more accurate to say he was criticized by the committee."
So does McCain want to fight that distinction?
"As for the definition of reprimand, Alan Cranston was officially reprimanded by the Ethics Committee. So McCain was not, at least by negative implication. It would be more accurate to say he was criticized by the committee."
Ah.. but you see, this sort of subtle "mistake" is exactly the sort of tease they might use on purpose to get McCain to overreact, thus providing Obama with lots of free publicity.
Think about it. What exactly is McCain going to complain about here?
"That nasty Obama said I was reprimanded for my unethical behavior in the Keating Five. It's a lie! I was only *criticized for bad judgment!*"
Yeah, let's see *that* all over Drudge. ;)
Heh, David beat me by a minute. ;)
If Tippecanoe goes Obama it will make a lot of us very proud boilermakers.
It's time for change and we boilers are happy to be involved.
Go Boilers!!!
BRIAN
as Bill would say, it depends on what your definition of 'is' is...
McCain got away with at a minimum unethical conduct by agreeing to have just his wrists slapped - probably because he was such a maverick POW...
but he did the deed - and in today's more rigorous climate, Mac would probably be headed to prison for the same actions that he was party to in the '80's with Charles Keating
----------------------------------
of course, in case we forget there was the other Bush brother [Ned ?] who was also a reprobate during the S&L crime spree...
as I recall, he got off scot free thanks to his families political connections...
hhhmmm - more Mac ties to Bush crimes against our country
Ronald and Nancy Reagan despised John McCain, mainly for his immoral treatment of his first wife.
Isn't that enough for the Reagan worshiping, "family values" mob?
I agree it is an esoteric distinction. It just rubs me the wrong way a bit as a devoted Obama supporter. It doesn't ring as totally true.
It helps that the other four, all Democrats, are long gone from the Senate so the GOP can't try to spin it as a "Democratic scandal" although a funny retort could be made:
John McCain, so corrupt he'll even get in on scandals from the other party!
To divert away from Keating, Ayers, etc. and go back to positive notes re: ground game, here's some indication of the Obama ground game in Ohio.
Summary: massive
http://www.politickeroh.com/daviddewitt/obama-ohio-change-talks-canvassing-efforts
I'm a bit surprised by Obama playing the Keating card. But upon further reflection, it makes a great deal of sense.
--> Obama can attack McCain while staying right on message.
--> Obama doesn't have to make anything up. This was a BIG scandal at the time.
--> Clearly Obama was holding back the Keating card as a potential response to attacks on past associations. (Bringing a gun to a knife fight.)
--> McCain has steam coming out of his ears right now. He can't take criticism, particularly when it is justified. Will he be able to look at Obama during the town hall debate?
Regarding when polls close, here's a good site. It's from 2006, but it's still accurate. Scroll down to Nov. 7.
It's a bit confusing at first, but once you figure out the system, it makes a lot of sense. It lists all the various time zones, and the local one is in bold.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G06/closing.phtml?format=ac
You'll the the first to fullly close (at 7 pm EST) are GA, NH, SC, VT, VA, IN and KY. (NH is a bit funky, as the footnote will tell you.)
I'm the president of Purdue Students for Barack Obama assuring all of you that our movement here is stronger than you can imagine.
Second shot at posting the link for Obama's ground work in Ohio:
http://www.politickeroh.com/daviddewitt/obama-ohio-change-talks-canvassing-efforts
Thanks to all the IN people checking in about the ground game. Keep up the great work! :o)
I've been wondering if McCain's handlers will be dealing with this "eye contact" thing at the next debate since it got so much MSM play afterwards. And I wonder if McCain is just too "mavericky" to take advice about his performances so that nothing will change.
Sedi:
I think we're dealing with slightly different meanings here. I wasn't dealing with outperforming polls, but rather how he is likely to do percentagewise in the state relative to his percentage Nationwide. Kerry did about 20 percentage points worse in Indiana than he did Nationwide, This time around, I expect that Obama will be about 5 percentage points worse in Indiana than Nationwide...
I think by that standard that Iowa is also one the states where he has really gained, but I'm not sure about Missouri or Wisconsin.
Randy
Hi everyone, I'm new! I'm not sure if this is working? But here is something else Obama surrogates can use maybe?
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Begala_McCain_sat_on_board_of_1005.html
Obama is just a skinny monkey.
Gays will burn in hell.
Liberals should be shot on sight.
The bible should replace the constitution.
Free speech, especially on the internet, should be severely limited.
What does it say about McCain that he can send out his attack dogs but can't look Obama in the eye.
He does that again, and he will lose another 5%.
I live in Bloomington - the Obama camp definitely has a stronger presence on campus. I can't go anywhere without being asked to register to vote... for Obama. By contrast all I have seen from the McCain camp is McCain-Palin sidewalk chalk (even Ron Paul had posters).
I have a hypothesis on why Indiana can go blue. McCain may let Indiana go blue, while keeping his resources in key swing states like Ohio and Virginia, hoping that Indiana will bounce back in line.
The other key issue isn't the Chicago proximity as some posit - the Chicagoland area is already heavily Democratic - it is Obama's stance on agricultural issues, especially ethanol that help him in a corn state (hence his surprisingly good numbers in Iowa as well).
MULE HEAD
you are the monkey...
you promised again last night to go away & stay away & that you really, really meant it this time...
you are worse than the boy who cried wolf
such an ass...
BEHAVE OR BE GONE you troll
Mule Rider...
Won't you feel silly when you die and realize your entire world view is incorrect?
Why can't you faggot liberals voting for a nigger see it my truly independent way. I am an intellectual centrist who knows and teaches all. Fuck you for not seeing what I see.
Gays will burn.
"Obama is just a skinny monkey."
Ass Rider: Why do you yell and scream that you aren't a racist?
"Gays will burn in hell.
Liberals should be shot on sight.
The bible should replace the constitution.
Free speech, especially on the internet, should be severely limited."
Yeah, you are a moderate independent, and not a right wing extremists.
Seriously, get help. You are unbalanced.
Besides smearing Obama, Sarah Palin now has other worries.
It appears state employees will now testify in the Alaskan legislature sponsored Trooper-Gate inquiry.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/state_employees_will_honor_tro.php
"On the heels of the dismissal of the Alaska attorney general's suit to quash subpoenas issued in the legislature's Trooper-Gate investigation, seven subpoenaed state employees who had previously said they would not cooperate with the probe have now agreed to testify.
From the Anchorage Daily News:
"Despite my initial concerns about the subpoenas, we respect the court's decision to defer to the Legislature," [Alaska Attorney General Talis] Colberg said. "We are working with Senator Hollis French to arrange for the testimony of the seven state employee plaintiffs."
French has said they still expect the investigation's report to be completed by this Friday."
In combination with the Keating Five scandal, is this another game-changer?
SHADOW
this MR is probably a sock puppet sowing mischief
the real MULE would have used profanity & flung crap...
pwned
Yeah, the real Mule Rider is stupid in an entirely different way than this one.
That's not the real MR, I'm pretty sure.
@hoosiertohoosier,
Is Ethanol such a large issue that it would turn strong republicans in dems?
I live in Washington, and it is a large farming state as well(including corn), but I don't see a big jump in Obama numbers in the usually very red farming areas. Perhaps it is just because corn isn't as big a crop here as IN must be.
I'm guessing that the person posting bigoted comments in this thread isn't the real Mule Rider. Am I right?
Perhaps it isn't, but the only difference is this one isn't hiding his hatred and ignorance as much as the other one does, as little as his masking is.
No, I real. You guys will find out that gays will be tortured. No one is right but me. All the time.
I hate queers. I hate niggers. I McCain yet I want him to win and am really non-partisan. Believe me.
This just in:
Obama's ground game in Wisconsin
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/06/wisconsin/
The Ethanol issue is mainly important in regions that have ethanol producing plants, not areas where corn grows, FYI. The locals like the extra jobs, thats the crux of the issue.
MULIE promised to go away & stay away...
but he has done that several times lately when things are bad for the GOPers & all the other trolls retreat to the deepest caves...
however, we all know that he cannot really stay away for the next month, right ?
but to salvage his deeply wounded pride, I expect MULEHEAD to resurface here as a lurker at first, then slowly reveal himself when the next regression toward the mean comes along - but he will probably pop up before then as an 'alter ego'
maybe as donkey dick
This weeks 10 top is up, for those that follow it.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/top10/354
It always makes me smile!
Tippacanoe County will be an interesting one to watch, to be sure, although those astute in the ways of Indiana politics will also keep an eye on Vigo County in the west-central portion of the state (home to Terre Haute). Vigo is one of the select counties in the United States that has gone with the winner of every presidential election since 1960 - alongside Eddy County, N.M.; Van Buren County, Ark.; Logan County, Ark.; Lincoln County, Mo.; and Ferry County, Wa. In a few ways Vigo is actually a greater harbinger... it's gone for every winner except one since 1940.
"Obama's ground game in Wisconsin"
I'm from Wisconsin. From what I'm seeing, Wisconsin is Obama country, we're just waiting till Nov4 to vote. It's that simple.
"Yeah, the real Mule Rider is stupid in an entirely different way than this one."
LOL. Yep, that's a sock.
Oh and if you want to know why Indiana is in play - just compare the "top issue" from SUSA on September 30th, to the 2004 exit polls.
2008
Economy: 61% (Obama 49-45)
Healthcare: 9% (Obama 69-22)
Iraq: 5% (McCain 51-45)
Terrorism: 8% (McCain 91-9)
2004
Economy: 17% (Kerry 66-34)
Iraq: 15% (Kerry won 68-31)
Terrorism: 19% (Bush won 91%)
Moral Values: 24% (Bush won 85%)
Even though McCain has substantially reduced Bush's gap on economics and the Iraq war, he trails because of the decline of issues that work in his favour.
Can anyone speak about the voter suppression allegations in Indiana?
Voter Suppression Battle Brewing In Northwest Indiana
It appears that Lake County, IN may be the latest arena in the GOP's effort to suppress the vote in swing states
First some basics. Under Indiana election law, early voting can only take place in a county clerk's main office. This clearly could be problematic in areas where the county seat is far in distance from the most heavily populated parts of the county. Therefore, the law gives each board of elections the authority to approve early voting centers elsewhere in their county.
...It's in the city clerk's offices in these three towns that the Democratic members of the Lake County Board of Elections wanted to open up satellite voting centers. ...
But on September 24, the two Republican members of the elections board voted against doing so. ...Following the 3-2 party-line vote, the board of elections proceeded with its plan to open up the voting centers. Meanwhile, the county Republican Party argued that state law requires each board to unanimously approve any satellite voting and pledged to mount a legal challenge. The Democrats countered that voting centers located in city clerk's offices -- which are part of the county government -- don't fall under the statute cited by the GOP.
http://progressillinois.com/2008/10/04/lake-county-voter-supression
Does anyone know if anything is being done about the legal challenge?
just in case anyone missed it:
here is the video of the real VP Debate - SNL style on 10/4/08 [Sat. night]... with Queen Latifah as Gwen Ifill moderating, Tina Fey as Sarah Palin & also a Joe Biden : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/04/tina-fey-as-sarah-palin-i_n_131964.html
the talent contest was spot on, you betcha !
and the 'maverick' drinking game nailed it for the Joe 6packs...
I agree that this would be an issue anthony. Driving from Hammond or Gary to Crown Point is pretty much a no-go for obamas base there.
However, the dems run lake county, so i dont suspect this will be an issue.
Anthony said...
Besides smearing Obama, Sarah Palin now has other worries.
.....
In combination with the Keating Five scandal, is this another game-changer?
I think so...
The way I understand it; Alaska Attorney General (Palin appointee) tried to block the state employees from honoring the subpoenas, but a Superior Court judge dismissed emergency appeal filed by the Republicans. Now whether or not these employees honored the subpoenas the decision was going to come out, since many of the employees involved had already given their depositions.
This woman is so corrupt, no wonder she thinks Cheney was right to claim that the VP does not have to follow executive order: "Palin pledged her cooperation with the probe until she became the vice presidential candidate. She has said through her lawyer that she only will cooperate with a separate investigation, one that she calls unbiased but is conducted in secret and can last for years." How Cheney-esque is that? (source: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jOTk11gvqDAgD0cY3i4WjI_2YOxwD93JJ9I80)
""It helps that the other four, all Democrats, are long gone from the Senate so the GOP can't try to spin it as a "Democratic scandal" although a funny retort could be made:
John McCain, so corrupt he'll even get in on scandals from the other party!""
Maybe this is what McCain really means when he says he's willing to reach across the aisle. ;)
"The Ethanol issue is mainly important in regions that have ethanol producing plants, not areas where corn grows, FYI. The locals like the extra jobs, thats the crux of the issue."
1. Ethanol production raises the prices of all agricultural goods, but especially corn.
2. Ethanol voters are generally formerly strongly Republican
3. There is also an indirect effect on those in supporting industries whose bread and butter is also derived from ethanol.
4. According to the economic census of the United States (2002), Indiana is one of the leading ethanol producers (among Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota).
5. According to the same source, Indiana is 13th in food manufacturing, and 11th in the per capita value of food manufacturing shipments.
Mulerider is a fraud,
The Bible???? Let me see, do you think Jesus Christ would approve of your language, let alone your hypocrisy?
Social conservatives kill me. They are sooo self-righteous
"Jesus Christ would approve of your language, let alone your hypocrisy?"
I'm pretty sure Jesus doesn't speak English anyway.
MR claims:
"Why can't you faggot liberals voting for a nigger see it my truly independent way. I'm an intellectual centrist who knows and teaches all. Fuck you for not seeing what I see."
Independent? Your opinions are pure Evangelical Christian theology. You haven't got a synapse in your brain that is not under the yoke of twisted indoctrination.
Intellectual centrist? How about willfully ignorant?
The more garbage you put up here, the more you prove it to anyone who bothers to read it.
DNFTT
Thank you for the follow up on my Ethanol question.
Shadowspecies said...
I agree that this would be an issue anthony. Driving from Hammond or Gary to Crown Point is pretty much a no-go for obamas base there.
However, the dems run lake county, so i dont suspect this will be an issue.
Thanks for the response. Would you happen to know if these kinds of shenanigans are happening through out Indiana?
Ginny in CO,
That wasn't me. It was an imposter. A sock puppet is what they refer to them on here as. Check the blogger ID. I would never say such heinous things.
I'm sorry that someone thinks they have to defame me still, but I'm too tired of going "flameout" trying to defend myself. People still ridicule me regardless.
But that was not me. Just know that.
Well, i really dont know anthony. But, i CAN tell you this. Marion and Lake county are the only two counties in the state where this issue would matter, just due to voter demographics and socioeconomic issues.
After digesting this for a bit, I think the Keating 5 focus is a big mistake. Coming so quickly after the Ayers thing somewhat legitimizes it by making it look like Obama is bringing that issue up solely to divert attention. They should have waited until next week and made it the lead up to the economics debate if they were going to use it.
They are going to shift the narrative just in time for the media idiots to look for something to glom onto for this last month. It will now be "who has the biggest scandal" when the Ayers/Rezko/Wright stuff was so completely tired and stupid that it would have fizzled.
Big, big mistake IMO and I hope it doesn't hurt Obama when he had such great momentum.
This sounds like a concern troll I know, but I'm really somewhat nervous over this as a supporter.
brian-
It's a neutralizer at the least. McCain and Palin won't be able to play up the Ooga Booga scarecard via Ayers up until the debate now, because they'll have to deflect Keating.
Then the Town Hall carries the narrative through Wednesday at the most, and as quarterly results come in at the end of the week, the economy, and possibly by association, Ayers, is back at the front.
Another added bonus is that the next time they play Ayers up, it's an old story.
AND, it could also serve to agitate McCain before the Town Hall, leading to much worse things than a lack of eye contact.
It depends on how the media spins it and takes it forward. Mike Allen's story that was picked up on the front page of Yahoo about it already draws the false comparison between the two stories which is what I'm afraid will become the norm.
I have a hypothesis on why Indiana can go blue. McCain may let Indiana go blue, while keeping his resources in key swing states like Ohio and Virginia, hoping that Indiana will bounce back in line.
It's certainly true that some of the resources have gone to Virginia. McCain opened a dozen new offices last week. However, I think it will be too little too late -- Obama offices still outnumber his two to one, and the voter reg figures that are coming in show that the vast majority of the new registrations coming in are from Democratic areas.
It may well be that McCain's best strategy for Indiana, based on his relative deficit in money and volunteers, is to hope for the best and assume, as many said upthread, that if he's lost Indiana he's already toast.
Brian - also keep in mind the difference in the level of campaign resources devoted to the stories on the two sides. Obama is putting up a website about the McCain story. McCain's running mate is personally leading the attack from their side.
My take on it is that news organizations felt they "had" to investigate the smears being peddled by the McCain campaign because the campaign was pushing them. They believed they couldn't do much with Keating on their own without seeming partisan. So the Obama campaign is pushing it just enough to give the media the excuse to run with it, and not leave the McCain smears unanswered. I also suspect they're trying to use it at the point when the economic issues make it the most relevant to current events.
Truth. It's just going to be hard for it to dominate past Tuesday, let alone the rest of the week, which is going to be brutal for the economy.
The strategy seems to rely on the typical Obama belief that people will see through the muck, as the Ayers charge is frivolous compared to Keating. Nevermind the fact that the McCain camp completely overreached with the "terrorist" mumbo jumbo, which is repeated in that Mike Allen article.
Would a major party candidate for President REALLY have direct relationships with a terrorist without anyone really reporting about it? REALLY? They reached too far and just got caught exposing a weakspot.
Oh, and O's base has been salivating for this to be thrown out for months. He's going to get an energy boost, especially from the lefter-leaning faithful.
Keating is MUCH more relevant and damaging than Ayers. Thanks to McCain announcing his determination to go negative in the press and having Palin virtually call Obama a terrorist, Obama gets to play the Keating card without penalty. That simple.
Counter attacking with Keating is all about media manipulation. Every time Ayres is discussed Keating must be discussed as well. It's the right approach.
YOU CANNOT SIT BACK AND BE SWIFTBOATED
When attacked, attack. If your playing defense your losing. If your explaining your losing. Don't play defense, don't explain, attack.
Obama must remain on an economic message, but the rest of his campaign must attack the Ayres story. Obama must be ready for an aggressive McCain at the debate.
The more i read the latest news articles about how this is going to play...the more i realize Obama HAD to do this. They were going to go nuclear on him. There was no way he could stabilize the poll numbers without dropping the keating bomb. The problem between the two is...even though the ayers thing is a joke...its scarier to independent voters than S&L corruption in the keating 5. I dont know how this will play, but i DO AGREE that obama made the right call here on hitting the red button.
They're running out of things to throw at him. Secret Muslim is gone, Celebrity is gone, Raging Liberal is gone, Terrorist is at least half empty.
No to doubt the creativity of 527s, but anything else is just going to reek of desperation. The scent's already in the air after McCain's Summer of Tricks.
My take on it is that news organizations felt they "had" to investigate the smears being peddled by the McCain campaign because the campaign was pushing them. They believed they couldn't do much with Keating on their own without seeming partisan. So the Obama campaign is pushing it just enough to give the media the excuse to run with it, and not leave the McCain smears unanswered. I also suspect they're trying to use it at the point when the economic issues make it the most relevant to current events.
Having thought about this...I think it's valid.
The website is just that: a website. There's no mention of it becoming a commercial (yet). To find it you kind of have to be looking for it.
BUT, this puts a unique opportunity to let the media do Obama's dirty work for him. This is where he is brilliant. Instead of running smearing attack ads, he rebuts McCain's accusations on the stump and then the media takes it and runs.
And internet advertising is WAY cheaper than TV. So why not put it on the web, and let the press carry it. Then people see it on TV on CNN or MSNBC or FOX, and they go find the website.
Somehow, having an online smear campaign isn't as damaging to your image as paying for TV airtime.
I think it's brilliant.
I think they DEFINITELY should not go to a TV ad with it though. Let it all flesh itself out instead of shoving it in the voters' faces.
I grew up in Indiana, just a few cornfields down the road from the self-proclaimed "number one KKK town in America." I worked for the Census Bureau in 2000 and encountered all kinds of ugly racist statements when I read down the list of questions going door to door. There was one black student at my university of 2000. I finally left because of the oppressive anti-gay bigotry.
I can hardly bring myself to allow a tiny flicker of hope. If Indiana ends up voting for a black man, I will probably cry, then call my friends back home and congratulate them on joining the 21st century. Could it really happen???
You can't let Caribou Barbie go around and accuse Obama of being a terrorist. She's sleeping with a man who belonged to a SECESSIONIST GROUP FOR 7 YEARS, and has the nerve to say that about Obama?
She and McCain live in glass houses.
I have no problem about Keating Economics.com
Great points Joey. One thing though, I don't consider the Keating 5 website a "smear" campaign.
It's relevant and on point.
G. Gordon Liddy
Convicted felon - tried to steal democracy, admitted he was willing to commit murder and terrorism for his cause. Unrepentant and brags about it. Making money on it even today.
And a buddy of and contributor to John Sidney McCain, III.
This one is going to seep out, too. I hope a 527 does it and does it well. Obama's 13 minute video on the Keating 5 was timed to combat Palin's sleaze and to work McCain up just before the Town Hall.
The Obama campaign is playing chess and remains 10 moves ahead of Steven Schmidt and the other morons running McCain's pathetic campaign.
McCain campaign - checkers
Obama campaign - 3-dimensional chess
I hope someone in the media calls McCain on this. This IS a racially tinged smear campaign questioning Obama's patriotism and American values.
If McCain continues down this road, Obama must let Biden lash out at McCain in righteous anger. I want Biden, McCain's long time friend, to question McCain's integrity, McCain's honesty, McCain's values. I want a frontal assault on McCain's "Fitness" to be commander and chief with his erratic behavior.
If the GOP is gonna swift boat Obama with this bullshit, everything should be on the table. Portray McCain as an angry, out of touch old man not fit to be making major decisions for the country. I am sick and tired of republican bullshit.
@Sean and Nate
I'm THRILLED to see McCain/Palin waste their money buying ads on fivethirtyeight.com! WIN-WIN-WIN!!!
Sort of like McCain blowing two valuable days in Iowa last week, a state that hasn't been in play for months.
Not to mention McCain losing it while being interviewed by the editorial board of The Des Moines Register, Iowa's newspaper of record.
SUHWEEEEET!!
I always thought Keating got off with a tap on the wrist because no one could stomach John Glenn having a tarnished image. It was a deal to treat Glenn and McCain lightly even though McCain was obviously the worst.
It was a deal.
Early morning music to my ears
Obama Leading McCain in New Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota Polls
By Christopher Stern
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee John McCain in battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, according to new polls.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads 49 percent to 42 percent among Ohio voters, according to a Columbus Dispatch poll of 2,262 likely voters released yesterday.
The survey, conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3, shows a change from a poll by the newspaper before the parties' nominating conventions, when McCain had a single percentage-point advantage. The state is crucial to the Arizona senator's campaign, because no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio.
Polls in Ohio ``are showing increased support for Barack Obama,'' because voters are paying attention to McCain's support for privatizing Social Security, backing ``job-killing trade agreements,'' and his backing of deregulation of the banking system, Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown said on ABC's ``This Week'' program yesterday.
A Minnesota poll of 1,084 likely voters published by the Star Tribune newspaper shows Obama leading 55-37 percent over McCain. The poll was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2.
Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said the Star Tribune poll is ``notoriously not accurate,'' and said a separate earlier poll found McCain favored by 1 percentage point.
``Minnesota is a Democrat-leaning state, but not so much that it's implausible for a Republican to win here,'' Pawlenty said on ``This Week.''
Pennsylvania Poll
In Pennsylvania, Obama has a 50 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll.
The Muhlenberg College poll surveyed 597 likely voters and was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3. The results of the three state polls were outside the margin for error.
The presidential race in Colorado remains a tie, according to a poll released by the Denver Post yesterday.
National polls also show that Obama is maintaining a lead over McCain.
Obama led McCain 49 percent to 42 percent among registered voters surveyed Sept. 27-29 by the Pew Research Center. In a mid- September poll, the candidates were in a statistical dead heat.
In a CBS News poll conducted Sept. 27-30, Obama led 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. The margin increased 4 percentage points from a CBS/New York Times survey a week earlier.
The financial crises is spreading all over the world, Asian and European markets are taking a beating.
This economic crises is not going away.
Any attempt by the mccain/palin camp. to divert attention from it, is not going to work.
oct2: VP debate
oct 3 - 4: who won discussion
oct 5 - Ayers attack
oct 6 - Keating 5 attack
oct 7 - debate
oct 8 - who won discussion
oct 9 - debate polls out
oct 10 - ntl polls out
oct 11-12 - looking for poll shifts
due to 5,6,7
oct 13 - media say obama wins debates, polls steady
oct 14 - pastor wright attack
oct 15 - palin pastor + AIP attack
oct 15 - debate
oct 16 - who won discussion ?
oct 17 - Obama wins on economy
oct 18 - polls steady
oct 19 - dicussion on polls
oct 20 and onward:
economy
economy
economy
economy
economy..........
GOP has less than 15 days for a TRUE october surprise. A true surprise is something not yet surfaced.
Do you really want this man to be our next president?
The wife U.S. Republican John McCain callously left behind
By Sharon Churcher
Mailonline
McCain likes to illustrate his moral fibre by referring to his five years as a prisoner-of-war in Vietnam. And to demonstrate his commitment to family values, the 71-year-old former US Navy pilot pays warm tribute to his beautiful blonde wife, Cindy, with whom he has four children.
But there is another Mrs McCain who casts a ghostly shadow over the Senator’s presidential campaign. She is seldom seen and rarely written about, despite being mother to McCain’s three eldest children.
And yet, had events turned out differently, it would be she, rather than Cindy, who would be vying to be First Lady. She is McCain’s first wife, Carol, who was a famous beauty and a successful swimwear model when they married in 1965.
She was the woman McCain dreamed of during his long incarceration and torture in Vietnam’s infamous ‘Hanoi Hilton’ prison and the woman who faithfully stayed at home looking after the children and waiting anxiously for news.
But when McCain returned to America in 1973 to a fanfare of publicity and a handshake from Richard Nixon, he discovered his wife had been disfigured in a terrible car crash three years earlier. Her car had skidded on icy roads into a telegraph pole on Christmas Eve, 1969. Her pelvis and one arm were shattered by the impact and she suffered massive internal injuries.
When Carol was discharged from hospital after six months of life-saving surgery, the prognosis was bleak. In order to save her legs, surgeons
had been forced to cut away huge sections of shattered bone, taking with it her tall, willowy figure. She was confined to a wheelchair and was forced to use a catheter.
Through sheer hard work, Carol learned to walk again. But when John McCain came home from Vietnam, she had gained a lot of weight and bore little resemblance to her old self.
Today, she stands at just 5ft4in and still walks awkwardly, with a pronounced limp. Her body is held together by screws and metal plates and, at 70, her face is worn by wrinkles that speak of decades of silent suffering.
For nearly 30 years, Carol has maintained a dignified silence about the accident, McCain and their divorce. But last week at the bungalow where she now lives at Virginia Beach, a faded seaside resort 200 miles south of Washington, she told The Mail on Sunday how McCain divorced her in 1980 and married Cindy, 18 years his junior and the heir to an Arizona brewing fortune, just one month later.
Latest McCain banner ad atop this site: he's mocking Obama for agreeing with him so much.
Not sure what his message is, unless maybe:
"Look what an idiot Barack Obama is! He even agrees with that dimwit McCain!"
Well, it's their ad money.
It's nice to know that Birch is still around and having an influence. I didn't realise all those accomplishments -- pretty impressive stuff! I lived across the street from Birch's aunt in Indiana back when he entered the Senate.
Serpentine! Serpentine!
Desperate Times?
Well, that's how it would seem to be playing out for the Palin/McCain campaign. Per Chris Mathews of Hardball, "Every time conditions prevail, that is the current status of things causes McCain's poll numbers to dwindle, McCain cancels, fires, stoops, postpones. That is to say, he pulls a 'razzle dazzle,' 'hail mary,' 'bootleg,' 'statue of liberty' play in a scattered move to distract the public from the real issues," i.e.:
-He wants to bomb Iran (to the tune of bomb, bomb-bomb, bomb, bomb Iran)
-He wants to offer $300 million for a new type of car battery to be invented
-Let's Have a Tax Holiday
-He wanted to cancel the RNC,
-He brought Sarah Palin on board,
-He demanded the firing of the head of the SEC Chris Cox (and then he said FEC),
-He wants to delay the debates,
-He says he is halting his campaign (although nationally all the fundamentals of his campaign continue to work soundly without a break)
-He proposes a complete one year spending freeze on every agency of the federal government ... excepting only national defense, the care of our veterans and "a few other critical things."
(see video --
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/includes/templates/library/flash_popup.php?pID=281540-1&clipStart=&clipStop=)
-Maybe Obama Is A Terrorist? (and no one noticed until now)
-Sign The Bill, Don't Sign The Bill, Veto The Bill
-Cut and Run From Michigan. You heard me...chicken.
-He blames the housing crisis that started it, i.e. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "On my watch, people will be held accountable. We will clean house at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac"
Yet on the Freddie Mac website, on their News and Information page:
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/features/stories/20051114_homeownership.html
Rick Davis, MCCAIN'S CURRENT CAMPAIGN MANAGER, is still listed as the Homeownership Alliance President (ironically, HA). HA has been researching, and calling for the following:
Homeownership has been a cornerstone of the country’s economic strength throughout the past decade. “State and local governments nationwide must expand their efforts to ensure that every family in America has the opportunity to own a home,” said Davis. “The more Americans we have owning homes, the stronger our economy and the greater the benefit.”
This man has been pushing the citizens of the United States, those unable to get homes, into homes they could not afford. This man runs McCain's campaign, still. And McCain says he's gonna clean them up?
SEE: Let The Credits Roll for the truth. Everyone is to blame: http://www.palincomparisonblog.com/LetTheCreditsRoll.html
However, instead of cleaning up the mess that the current administration, THAT MEANS YOU TOO MCCAIN, has left us, it would seem that Senator John McCain is a, "Hey! Look over there!" kinda politician.
It's even worth quoting Frank, chairman of the Financial Services Committee: "McCain's trying to pull the longest 'Hail Mary' in the history of either football or Marys."
Yesterday on Bloomberg News, Chris Buckley, son of William F. Buckley (the recently departed -- God Rest His Blessed Soul), was being interviewed about his new book, "Supreme Courtship." When asked about McCain's name calling and terrorist accusations, he replied, "It's gone beyond saying a Hail Mary. He's saying the whole rosary!"
You know what, McCain? You're mother dresses you funny.
ConcernedMilf
www.IfTheBuckStopsHereShootIt.com
http://concernedmilf.blogspot.com/
We allways knew that the last 3 cards played by the McCain team were going to be Rezko, Ayers & Wright.
The assumption is that Obama will throw mud back. There is clearly lots to go around. I have no doubt that he will, at least through surogates.
But. Remember that Obama is one of the truly great speakers. Remember that he has succesfully positioned himself as a highly compitent, relativly unagressive moderate. The public will have difficulty after debates & speaches with believing he is a fanatic or terorist. There is another way to play this.
Obama can argue with justice that asociating with controversal characters is all part of the job training. As president he will have to deal with influence pedalers, terorism supporters & religous fanatics far worse. They are called world leaders.
He isn't going to follow their teachings, but he would be a fool not to learn what motivates them. Would he be a better leader if he lived in a monestry?
Only those Indiana residents who are more than 72 years old have seen Indiana go for the Democratic Presidential candidate more than once in their lifetime. The last time Indiana voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee was in 1964; the times before that (1860 forward) were in 1936, 1932, 1912 (only because TR split the Repub vote), 1892, 1884 and 1876.
I was born in Indiana and lived there until I was 22, still have dozens of relatives living there, so it is very exciting for me to see that Indiana, at the very least, is competitive this year.
Mike
expect another crash on Wall Street today, the world markets are in free fall
Just wanted to give another shout out to SNL VP Debate:
"Hey pundits..you suckers just beeen schooooled..Biden style!!"
God bless SNL, they are at least 3% of the Obama Bump.
Long time reader, first time commenter.
I'm from South Bend / Mishawaka Indiana. With Obama's new Ad talking about the Keating Five Scandal, I think Indiana may finally swing blue. I would love to see it. I've been knocking on doors and asking people who they're voting for.. Obama is the top candidate around here. We need to be painted blue.
I hope we are ..
What can Obama do for down ticket races?
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20081006/COLUMNIST/810060327/2127?Title=Obama_too_close_for_GOP_s_comfort
I will let you pull the data out yourselves but I wanted to get this posted here so people can see how huge the GOTV for Obama is going to be. I don't think polls will be anywhere close to correct for local elections. :)
Well, folks, you have all made it clear that I'm a hated, detested, 50y.0. creep here in Lafayette. How could anyone be more loathed?
I am the *hated* "mad canvasser" but I continue to work. I'm the exact opposite of "kewl". How can anyone be more detested, I ask (rhetorically?).
Let's see, can Lafayette folks or SFBO, come up w/ a "WE HATE RAJ, BECAUSE HE CANVANSSES" organization?
Try it. You'll get a lot of members.
I am the *unkewl* old fart. Good for FiveThirtyEight for reviewing us. Even if no one cares.
New McCain TV ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjEKRIBDv6Q
good morning
Obama to hit McCain on Keating Five.
Another tough, pre-emptive move by the Democrats.
Politico reports that Obama will launch a multimedia campaign Monday to draw attention to the involvement of McCain “in the ‘Keating Five’ savings-and-loan scandal of 1989-91, which blemished McCain’s public image and set him on his course as a self-styled reformer.”
http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/05/obama-to-hit-mccain-on-keating-five/
nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.....
I knew it. This is terrible. The MSM is eating up the Ayers things and Sarah Palin in the midst of economic hell. Boy you gotta hand it to the Mccain camp, they know how to change the subject in a hurry. Now theyre forcing Obama to bring up Keating, which is playing right into Mccain's hand. Obama's not going to win a 29 day war of whose more patriotic. Im so sick and tired of the superficial media.
Morning music !
we can win this thing
hello tax cut :-)
The mccain camp's diversion from the economic reality facing the US will not work. Market futures are predicting another downside for Wall Street today.
Today R2K tracking has Obama 52 McCain 40, no change from yesterday
niedda said...
Market futures are predicting another downside for Wall Street today.
shorts & puts are making me money :-)
thanks niedda
let's see if the McCains attacks can bring him back
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