They've done it. The McCain campaign has gone and pissed off Miss Virginia.
When McCain senior adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer divided Virginia into the DC suburbs and "real Virginia," Kristi Lauren Glakas felt extremely disappointed. Glakas, a recent three-time Miss Virginia title holder and whip-smart University of Virginia scholarship honor student, said the comments were divisive.
"What offended me and made me sad about those comments," said Glakas, a resident for many years in northern Virginia, "is that I've been to every county, every part of this state. What's best about Virginia is its diversity. The people, the geography. We have every class, every race, an amazing immigrant population... Virginia is the birthplace of America. To say that part of Virginia is not part of the real America is just offensive."
Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who spoke to us Monday, echoed that sentiment. "It'll backfire big time," predicted Kaine, who compared it to George Allen infamously welcoming "Macaca" to "to America, and the real world of Virginia."
"'Real' Virginia, what does that mean?" asked Kaine, noting that Northern Virginia was home to John McCain's national headquarters, as well as where John McCain lives when he works in DC.
On the subject of Virginia's ground game, Kaine gave us a review of recent dramatic improvements in Democratic operations in the state. While he didn't have a strong sense of the Al Gore 2000 operation, "Mark (Warner) ran a good Coordinated in 2001," where the strategy was to run up the score in Democratic areas and overperform in the traditional Republican rural counties. Though John Kerry invested early in 2004, his ability to keep resources in the state soon ended.
For his successful 2005 race against Jerry Kilgore, Kaine worked a similar strategy to that of Warner's. Building off the momentum begun with Warner's win and popular term, Kaine and his talented campaign staff targeted suburban voters, the Democratic base, and rural areas. And after 2005, Kaine said, the Virginia Democratic Party has been more or less in perpetual organizing mode.
"The data was held in place and we rolled into Webb (in 2006). Then we rolled into the state senate races in 2007." Democrats won both Webb's race and retook the Virginia Senate. Importantly, Kaine said, Virginia benefits from having a deep bench of experienced campaign staffers who've worked many cycles and know the state well. "There's a lot of home state talent."
As for how Obama's Campaign for Change and the Coordinated Campaign offices (Mark Warner's Senate race and the various House races) are working in parallel, Kaine told us that after working out some kinks in the summer to avoid duplicative efforts, both ground efforts are boosting each other's prospects upticket and downballot. There aren't many people voting for Barack Obama who aren't voting for Mark Warner, Kaine said, "except maybe Gilmore's kids."
Asked for a prediction on Election Night, Kaine demurred. "We're the underdog because we haven't done it in 44 years." Though he clearly liked Obama's chances, right now "it's too close for comfort."
As for McCain's aforementioned national and regional headquarters, we gamely attempted to visit, but got nowhere. After a boatload of voicemails and emails placed with McCain Mid-Atlantic campaign spokeswoman Gail Gitcho over a period of days went unanswered, we continued our pursuit of the McCain ground game story on our own.
Ironically, the campaign headquarters in Arlington was buzzing on Monday morning, with approximately 50 people in the office making phone calls -- more than what we've seen in all McCain offices in our previous ten states combined. But we could not take pictures, and security was tight. At one point while we were there hoping to talk to anyone who would go on the record, a female staffer worriedly asked a volunteer whether the robocalls had stopped. They hadn't.
The day before, in McCain's Loudoun Regional Victory Center in Sterling, VA, we stopped by the office immediately after our Falls Church Obama visit. A full-time volunteer had just papered the office walls with GOTV shift lists, and all were empty except two names on one day. It was 5 pm, and the office was closing. Six of one, half dozen of the other, as it only held one lonely phonebanker who complained to us about ACORN and the media:
Falls Church, Obama office, moments before:
McCain's Richmond Victory Center, Monday evening:
In Obama's briskly busy Richmond office, which you can see in Brett's slideshow, we found yet another focused, upbeat atmosphere. We spoke with Obama for America State Director Mitch Stewart, which we'll bring you in the next installment from Charlottesville.
The witty Glakas had the line of the day. Saying she was doing her level best to push back against the stereotypes set by other former pageant contestants Miss Teen South Carolina and Miss Alaska entrant Sarah Palin (formerly Sarah Heath), she pointed out that Palin's hiding from the press was a giant turnoff and gave beauty queens a bad name.
"Even I've been interviewed by Chris Matthews."






191 comments
Slightly off topic here, but can someone please point out the race-baiting picture on Drudge's site? It's disgusting.
Anyway, it's nice to have a beauty queen with common sense for once.
first?
why is time kaine so adorably jolly?
1st - but what does miss colorado think? thats what i want to know. Think this site is becoming too irreverent[sp?] for its own good.
Sorry for cross-posting.
Vote if PPP polls Washington or Montana here
Miss Virginia for Prez, 2016!!!
This election is truly bringing out the best in Americans (and sadly, at times, the worst). I'm so happy as a Canadian to see people truly getting involved in politics and getting behind a united cause. God luck, neighbours.
I believe Virginia is the one swing state that mcCain cannot win under any circumstances. Of all of the potential states to put Obama over the Kerry + IA + NM to 269 top, Virginia is locked up. I'm not as confident about Colorado as some, but i think Virginia is unwinnable or McCain.
It was 5 pm, and the office was closing. Six of one, half dozen of the other, as it only held one lonely phonebanker who complained to us about ACORN and the media
Ha ha!
You made my day.
Grumble gruble freaking ACORN! Grumble mumble media grumble.
Battleground rankings (winnability) in my eye for Obama:
Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Florida
Missouri
Indiana
Georgia (yes, Georgia)
North Dakota
Montana
Omaha (saw Hillary there yesterday)
Virginia's #1. I'm actually thinking McCain might win Colorado. Feels like something fishy is going on there. I kinda get a sense, Obama could win North Carolina and lose Colorado. Only reason I have it as high as I do is the concensus opinion, for now I'll give it the benefit f the doubt. I also believe, though early voting is minimal in Virginia (Fairfax), that is the state McCain feels he can't win. Pennsylvania becomes close to mandatory in that circumstance.
Richard Whittall said...
Slightly off topic here, but can someone please point out the race-baiting picture on Drudge's site?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Your explanation: He's a reich-winger. End of story.
There's a distinct possibility that North Carolina is being locked up as we speak and is the tipping point. Where does Nate have it ranked. I know our beloved Virginia is ranked first, makes sense. Don't underestimate the Tarheel State.
McCain's offices can't even afford color photos?
ACORN kicked my dog.
Sarah Palin: Finally, a beauty queen that doesn't want world peace.
Philadelphia is the birthplace of America.
Virginia is typically polling ahead of the nation for Obama in Rasmussen polls right now. (+10 compared to +5) Its a real problem state for McCain and crucial to his strategy. If we can't call Virginia blue quite yet, it may well be blue in all 4 current state wide elections by November 5, with Kaine and Webb, being joined by Warner and Obama as statewide winners in Virginia. Now thats a positive sign in an old Confederate State.
Jeez folks, have a little faith in Colorado. I'm dealing with a skewed sample here, but if the energy in Boulder for Obama is any indication, there's _no way_ it's going for McCain. They just don't have the same kind of ground game. Boulder is _on fire_ for Obama. I took my two and a half year-old around the HQ here on Pearl Street last night. He loved it. It was electric. Word on the street is that the Colorado Springs McCain HQ has nothing on us.
Obama needs to scoot back through NC in the next week and have a 1 on 1 game with Micheal Jordan.
I put this on the wrong thread:
Miss Virginia looks a lot like Yasmine Bleeth.
Dang! 20th
ABC/Washington Post tracking poll:
Obama 54, McCain 43
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/
The Michael Jordan idea is good, but MJ lives in N suburban Chicago these days
Thank God Jack Cafferty is back. I love that guy.
Obama is leading Va. by 10 per CNN poll just released. Obama is also leading Nevada, and Ohio. McCain has WV.
Obama's growing lead is SPLENDID NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
markymark said...
Virginia is typically polling ahead of the nation for Obama in Rasmussen polls right now. (+10 compared to +5) Its a real problem state for McCain and crucial to his strategy. If we can't call Virginia blue quite yet, it may well be blue in all 4 current state wide elections by November 5, with Kaine and Webb, being joined by Warner and Obama as statewide winners in Virginia. Now thats a positive sign in an old Confederate State.
Yes, exactly, I think it's a solid 3 points bluer than the national numbers. I don't thin it's winnable for McCain, unless MccAin gets the national poll of polls to McCain +3 in other words. I think the 100% defensive strategy is impossible for McCain because of Virginia. Also, what job can Tim Kaine find between the end of his term as Governor and 2016.
Tim Kaine for President 2016!
SBT Staff--LOL. A beauty queen that does not want world peace. That so nails it.
Quadridium beat me to it. Good on Brett Marty and everything, but isn't the contrast between McCain and Obama striking enough without adding the "black-and-white/vibrant color" contrast? Why not draw haloes on the Obama vols while you're at it?
There are a lot of decent sources putting this somewhere near a 10 point race right now, or even more. Clinton won in 1992 by 5.3% (fair enough that was a 3 point race) and by 8.5% in 1996. My own personal victory target for Obama would be to beat Clinton's margins of vitory. (the 96 electoral college score was 379-159, beating that would be tough, 92 was 370-168, more manageable)
Nancy Pfotenauer is making a Macaca of herself on Tweety's show.
I thought a saw a pussy cat. I did I did .
Has the IBD/TIPP tracking poll result come out yet today? Seems like the only one that hasn't appeared.
Matthews is hammering her on Palin (clothes and VP role). Bill Burton sits by smiling.
Miss Colorado from 2004 is volunteering for Obama's campaign if that helps ...
The "real Virginia" comments should be backfiring ... nice to see Miss Virginia stand up for her state.
pygmy_owl said...
Jeez folks, have a little faith in Colorado. I'm dealing with a skewed sample here, but if the energy in Boulder for Obama is any indication, there's _no way_ it's going for McCain. They just don't have the same kind of ground game. Boulder is _on fire_ for Obama. I took my two and a half year-old around the HQ here on Pearl Street last night. He loved it. It was electric. Word on the street is that the Colorado Springs McCain HQ has nothing on us.
I live in Texas and calling Boulder the thermometer for Colorado is more extreme than calling Austin the thermometer for Texas. That said, I'm happy Boulder is gung-ho. The polls suggest Obama is ahead. The McCain camp appears disheartened there. I have friends and relatives that live there and think it'll be blue. That said, Colorado Springs and rural areas are heavy McCain country to counter Boulder and Denver. A couple Colorado polls from the Denver post and Ciruli had great internals, region by region, and had it about tied with a big chunk of undecideds. Apparently the previous Secretary of State suspiciously purged almost 20% of the potential voters there, mostly Democrats. Ealry voting in every other state is heavy Democrat. In Colorado it's about tied. New registrations, don't quite get Democrats to the even mark with republicans. In other states, they do. I'm the only one voicing this. I recognize there is a long list of polls that show our team up there. I believe in yu and wish I could vote there. I understand the Hispanic commnuity is pro-Obama there. i'm hopeful, but I'm seeing better signs in North Carolina frankly. I hope Colorado proves me wrong. I have faith.
I'm going to repost this here since I just realized it was posted on a dead thread.
Obama key point: "We are going to give a tax break to 95% of Americans."
McCain and his surrogates have stated dozens of times in response to this: "If that's technically true, that 95% of ALL Americans are getting a tax break from Obama, then Obama is stating that he's going to be giving money to many people who do not pay taxes in the first place... since the bottom 40% or so of Americans do not have sufficient income to pay taxes."
I've heard ONE time and ONE time only an Obama surrogate say in response to this McCain camp argument something like the following: "No, Obama is referring to 95% of the people who pay taxes, NOT 95% of all people... he will not be giving money to people who currently do not pay taxes."
I don't understand why, that if this is true - that Obama is actually not giving money to anyone who doesn't currently pay taxes - why isn't the Obama camp putting out ads, statements, etc everywhere clarifying this? Why is the Obama camp letting the McCain camp continuously attack Obama using the line that current taxpayers are going to be paying money directly to the bottom 40% of the of the population that do not currently pay taxes?
It's funny that most favorable "poll shocks" that Drudge can find still have McCain losing.
Ryan said...
Has the IBD/TIPP tracking poll result come out yet today? Seems like the only one that hasn't appeared.
Yeah it did. It tightened to 3.7%
Wow, those Republicans are so depressed, they've lost all color!
Sean -- Can I just say that I love the fact that you scored an interview with a federal Senator widely specualted to be picked as VP. . . but still led off with Miss. Virginia. That's money.
ABC tracking 54-43
Matthews to Nancy: When Palin was busyshopping at Neimans she forgot to pick up a copy of the Constitution...
I thought I read somewhere that Nancy Pfotenhauer had been 'Carly Fiorina'd for her real VA rant. So why am I seeing her on Hardball? Btw, Matthews just bitch-slapped her.
Sean
thanks
Chris Matthews just obliterated Nancy Pfotenhauer over Palin's concept of the Vice Presidency. Like, seriously destroyed her. She evaporated into dust and Botox on camera.
AP:
Palin stops near Joe the Plumber's Ohio hometown
NM is #5 on the tipping point states. Don't count us out yet. I really think our northern neighbors are coming along for a ride on the Obama train, too.
Chris Matthews just obliterated Nancy Pfotenhauer over Palin's concept of the Vice Presidency. Like, seriously destroyed her. She evaporated into dust and Botox on camera.
- - - - - - - - - -
Link?
Just hopin'.
AP:
Obama campaign charging media Election Night fees
Media organizations will have to pay up if they want a prime spot to cover Democrat Barack Obama's Election Night party in a downtown lakefront park.
Obama's campaign, awash in money after raising a record-shattering $150 million last month, is asking news organizations to pay anywhere from $410 to $1,870 depending on where they want to be and if they want telephone or Internet service in Grant Park.
While it is customary for news organizations to pay their way when covering a presidential campaign, including transportation, hotels and Internet services, some have questioned the Obama campaign's plan.
"It smells a lot like paying for access," said Al Tompkins, a former TV news director who teaches broadcast and online journalism at the Poynter Institute in St. Petersburg, Fla.
For $1,870, a news organization can buy space on a main riser that will be covered, plus phone and Internet service, while $410 will get them space on a separate riser for photographers without out phone or Internet access, but with electrical power. A seat in a heated press filing center will cost $935 and include power, cable TV, Internet and food.
"Good on Brett Marty and everything, but isn't the contrast between McCain and Obama striking enough without adding the "black-and-white/vibrant color" contrast? Why not draw haloes on the Obama vols while you're at it?"
Kaine (aka -^ )also got the B&W treatement.
It will be on again just after 7 EDT
Real Joe said...
AP: Obama campaign charging media Election Night fees
[snip]
Well that sucks.
Chi said...
I thought I read somewhere that Nancy Pfotenhauer had been 'Carly Fiorina'd for her real VA rant. So why am I seeing her on Hardball? Btw, Matthews just bitch-slapped her.
Two reasons. The McCain camp realizes she's the best they got, whether they like it or not. Fiorina is probably not interested in politics. It's Pfotenhauer's livelihood.
Can we please, please PLEASE get at least 10 more national tracking polls today? We only have 12 so far. :)
Newsweek(Howard Fineman):
Could Obama Get a Reverse 'Bradley Effect'?
Link
A "Premium Member" posted this earlier, but it is now available to us mere mortals.
Kentucky Rasmussen
Obama - 44
McCain - 52
Details
the "librul" media is done with McCain and has decided "f**k it". MSNBC and CNN coverage is *brutal* tonight for McFailin'
Palin stops near Joe the Plumber's Ohio hometown
Near?
Good lord, Findlay is an hour from Holland. Detroit and Ann Arbor are closer to Joe The Plumber than Findlay is.
From Rasmussen:
"Though McCain earns the support of over a quarter (26%) of Democrats in Kentucky, Obama has a solid 56% to 40% lead among unaffiliated voters."
Is Kentucky democrats come home, we might have a shot. This would be in the 400+ EV scenario though!
guys don't forget Williams is interviewing Palin and McCain tonight.
SquareNips said...
Chris Matthews just obliterated Nancy Pfotenhauer over Palin's concept of the Vice Presidency. Like, seriously destroyed her. She evaporated into dust and Botox on camera.
October 22, 2008 4:17 PM
***************
LMAO!
The Daily Show - "Real Virginia"
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/what-the-pfot.html
Heather Nordquist said...
NM is #5 on the tipping point states. Don't count us out yet. I really think our northern neighbors are coming along for a ride on the Obama train, too.
Heather, I'm assuming you have New Mexico covered for Obama. I need one more state after New Mexico and Iowa. That's why I got Virginia on the list at #1. Nate's tipping point math is mostly saying New Mexico's margin of victory will be less than some others, hence 5th place. In other words if Obama only wins Kerry states + Iowa, Virginia, and New Mexico and he wins New Mexico by the smallest %, then New Mexico was the tipping point.
This is what these people are trying as hail mary-devisiveness, painting Obama as some kind of terrorist when he's not because the lies just aren't working...
A Los Angeles Homicide Detective who may have fabricated or destroyed evidence, Samuel Catalfamo, with two sons who are convicted felons and drug dealers, is facing an internal affairs investigation. Story here:
www.myspace.com/370392338
Wow. Brian Williams and Chuck Todd don't sound bullish whatsoever on the McCain campaign. I'm as giddy as a little girl.
Ted, I believe that McCain's characterization is correct. In other words, people who currently have no income tax liability would still receive a credit, giving them a negative income tax liability. In their eyes this is "socialist".
It is basically an extension of the existing Earned Income Tax Credit...a "socialist" program praised by known socialists like Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford.
Chuck Todd, with Brian Williams as he interviewed M & P, said the pair has no chemistry together, they seem like strangers, both seemed very down and defeated
Wow, can we make Miss Virginia the ambassador to somewhere please?
And yeah...Williams and Todd sounded like they were talking about a campaign about to commit suicide.
I agree that Palin horribly misstated the role of the VP. Though Chris Matthews line of questioning actually reminded me of Justice Scalia's textualism and originalist view of the Constitution.
While it is completely true that a VP's job in the Senate is strictly ceremonial other than the tie breaker, it is entirely reasonable for the VP to speak privately with Senators and promote the President's agenda as somewhat of a super-lobbyist.
Palin completely mangled that and incorrectly spoke of the VP's role in an active sense. She needs to be corrected, but in the same regard, Chris Matthews sounded almost Bill O'Reillyesque just now when he did not grant any ground to the idea that a VP can have a rigorous discourse with Senators behind the scenes on what the Executive branch would hope to see in a bill.
shadowguidex,
After listening to Brian Williams and Chuck Todd, I came to the conclusion that whatever 'love' that may have existed between the running mates is dead. (If only they would start cussing each other out on air. That would be priceless).
Welcome to the real Virginia!
I love that you all are coming to Charlottesville; this town is deep deep Obama blue, and if you can find the McCain office, I'd be surprised.
But for the sake of comparison, you should drive another 45 minutes to Jerry Falwell's Lynchburg; I would love to read your take on the contrast between these red and blue towns.
Keep it up!
Gov. Kaine of VA is so adorably jolly, because he's a graduate of my old high school in Kansas City, MO, Rockhurst. It's an all boy's school Jesuit school with the service-related motto "Men for others."
Here's the recent history though:
LBJ had been Senate Majority leader, and the strongest one in history. He becomes VP, had a Dem majority, and he was told basically, thanks but no thanks, don't you have a funeral to go to somewhere?
Same with other ex Senators (Humphrey, Mondale, Gore).
The idea that Sarah Palin would be welcomed into the legislative process is ludicrous.
"The idea that Sarah Palin would be welcomed into the legislative process is ludicrous."
Picture it. Picture her trying to walk into the Senate chambers and push through some legislation.
Tell me that's not funny.
"it is entirely reasonable for the VP to speak privately with Senators and promote the President's agenda as somewhat of a super-lobbyist."
Every VP who has tried that has had the Senate smack them down and threaten them with rules changes to make them even less powerful.
And she has no sense of recent history - the GOP Senators - after the reign of terror over them by Cheney - would be even more opposed than Dems.
For $1,870, a news organization can buy space on a main riser that will be covered, plus phone and Internet service, while $410 will get them space on a separate riser for photographers without out phone or Internet access, but with electrical power. A seat in a heated press filing center will cost $935 and include power, cable TV, Internet and food.
That doesn't sound unreasonable. Looks like they're just passing on the expense, nothing more.
She really does think that being president is really easy, just a photo op job. You can tell she doesn't think she'll have to know anything, or actually contemplate the big hard issues. She thinks she'd waltz in, let her advisers makes all the decisions, and just give speeches and go on vacations constantly. She's Bush with tits and $150,000 of clothing.
I wonder btw - if Stevens is convicted (it has gone to the jury), might Stevens then say, please vote for me, I will not take the seat (not that he could anyway), but if that happens, I will ask Gov Palin, if she is not elected VP, to replace me?
Then she could get there right away and see for herself.
$935 is a lot of pie.
To be fair, I believe Dick Cheney had some important influence in the run-up to the Iraq War. In the new Woodward book, isn't there a part about Dick Cheney essentially scaring some Senators in supporting the invasion?
That doesn't sound unreasonable. Looks like they're just passing on the expense, nothing more.
Perhaps, but hell hath no fury like a media scorned. This is an industry that loves to cover itself.
And I say this as a member of the newsmedia.
"if Stevens is convicted (it has gone to the jury), might Stevens then say, please vote for me, I will not take the seat (not that he could anyway), but if that happens, I will ask Gov Palin, if she is not elected VP, to replace me?"
That just totally doesn't match this guy's ego. Won't happen, he'll hold onto that seat like grim death because he's a dickhead like that.
So she was Miss Virginia and Miss Virginia USA. But which one is for the real Virginia, and which one is for the commie Virginia?
In any case, Miss Virginia is for lovers...
"And I say this as a member of the newsmedia."
We're a self-selecting sample. People who think that journalists are an incredibly important part of a society are the ones most likely to become journalists.
Gotta love the new McCain robo calls by Guiliani.
Accordning to http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/22/giuliani-gets-tough-on-obama-in-new-robocall/
"In the new call, to be blasted to voters in several swing states, the former federal prosecutor and New York City mayor says Obama opposes "mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers."
Holy Shit. Who in their right mind would believe this kind of bs? Are they thinking voters are retarded?
Obama has a better chance in North Dakota than you guys think. I know many republicans there who "cannot believe they are going to vote for Obama."
This is splendid news... FOR JOHN MCCAIN!
"Obama has a better chance in North Dakota than you guys think. I know many republicans there who "cannot believe they are going to vote for Obama.""
There aren't enough people in North Dakota for anyone to know "many" of anything. I live here and even I don't think I know "many" NDers :)
"In any case, Miss Virginia is for lovers..."
Sir, congratulations. You have won the intertubes.
People who think that journalists are an incredibly important part of a society are the ones most likely to become journalists.
And then do a bunch of shows about journalism. CNN has Reliable Sources, NPR has On The Media, MSNBC has a number of shows that have regular segments about the media.
It's really annoying. Navel gazing to the Nth degree.
Shadowguidex -
Stevens would have these choices:
1) Be elected, and then expelled from the Senate (this would be automatic, at least after appeal)
2) BUT he won't be reelected if he is convicted and says nothing
thus
3) He promises Alaskans, if you reelect me, the seat will stay GOP, and BTW, I recommend that Gov Palin appoint herself (might be appealing - it would get her out of Juneau, which might be more appealing to the state).
So sure, he could be stubborn and do nothing. But then, it is almost certain he loses. If he promises to resign (at least after appeal) and suggests who the alternative pick would be, maybe he'd go from zero chance to 30% chance of winning.
Also...
The good Governor Palin tried to tap into some of the women vote today by calling Obama a sexist - because he didn't pick Hilary Clinton as a running mate. This has to be the only reason, as the republicans have made it very clear what a wonderful President they think Clinton would make... Also, by this logic, McCain is a feminist, even though he said two days ago that Palin is the counterpoint to the feminist agenda in the country. Are you able to sort this out? I know I sure can't. This whole campaign deserves what they get on November 4th.
Why are some posters here so down on Colorado?
I can tell you, here in far Cnorthern Colorado, there is tremendous enthusiasm for Obama, as well as for Betsy Markey, who has the best chance I've seen of anyone for knocking out the horrendous Marilyn Musgrave in CO-4. Conversely, even the Palin selection hasn't made that much of a splash here. Yes, rural areas and CO Springs probably won't vote Obama by themselves, as the far-right has indeed glommed on to the Palin show. But their numbers aren't nearly as big as some of you seem to think, and the margin will be much narrower than usual, close enough to let Obama win the state as a whole.
Things are definitely changed here from just a few years ago. I guess it'll take Nov 4th to prove it to the rest of you. That's fine, it will soon enough.
Yay VA!! I'm going on vacation in Hiawassee after Obama wins the state! Woot!
"It's really annoying. Navel gazing to the Nth degree."
Well, I enjoy it. Especially On the Media.
Inkstain said...
"Every VP who has tried that has had the Senate smack them down and threaten them with rules changes to make them even less powerful."
Just so I get this straight... are you telling me that the legislative branch and executive branch have a communicative firewall between them? Or are you saying that this is the case for just for the VP?
Regardless, I know for a fact that the president (in times of crisis and non-crisis alike) talks with people in Congress regarding sought after legislation. Not only does it sound insane to me if you are suggesting that any form of back-and-forth doesn't take place between the branches, but that also sounds incredibly inefficient.
Nothing is just a pure black box without bi-directional communication. How could government function if that were the case?
There is a huge difference between a President or a VP talking to a Senator about a bill on the phone vs. the VP actually arguing for it and voting for it on the floor of the Senate.
@fabian,
I got that call this afternoon. I absolutely hate mandatory sentencing laws, so I was actually happy to hear that.
WTF judge needs a mandatory sentencing law for someone convicted of murder? Is there a judge out there who's making convicted murderers write "I will not kill people" 100 times on a blackboard and letting them go with two years of probation?
Below is a quote from Mark Halperin's The Page. Apparently, Sarah Palin has hinted she may release her medical record and the media are already salivating. Here's what she said: "I'm healthy, happy, I've had five kids... never seriously ill or hurt, you'll see that in the medical records if they're released."
If I understand correctly, she used the keyword 'IF' (i.e. if they're released). So, why are the media getting excited?
Have to agree with shadowguidex in regards to the Stevens trial.
The Senior Senator testified under oath. Defendants never testify under oath -- it opens them up to all kinds of unnecessary liabilities. I'm sure his attorneys told him it would be a bad idea. Steven's really is tripping balls crazy -- It's not just an illusion.
@Ted Striker
Of course the VP can talk to Congressmen in their role as an important member of the executive branch. That is not the same as trying to use their role as President of the Senate to effect any changes in Senators' opinions or voting.
Palin wasn't talking about talking to Senators one on one. She clearly indicated she thought the VP "runs" the Senate and plays an active up front role, or otherwise thought that if she wanted to, all she had to do was suggest it and all those men these would just gush all over her and welcome her participation.
Nicholas Warino said...
To be fair, I believe Dick Cheney had some important influence in the run-up to the Iraq War. In the new Woodward book, isn't there a part about Dick Cheney essentially scaring some Senators in supporting the invasion?
Cheney was a necessary evil for two reasons.
#1 Bush Jr. knew nothing about the way the wheels in Washington turn and knew nothing about anything that mattered to the Congress. They knew if they wanted to have any relationship of substance with the Executive branch Cheney had to be the go between.
#2 The Republican Congress from 2001-2006 wanted to wield their power. The best way to do that was get Cheney to help them work together with Bush Jr. W was clueless and had to be told what's what and whose who and be manipulated. This created an environment for the worst Executive Branch in US history and should never happen again.
If Palin tried it, she'd be spayed by 100 Senators that know they're mre qualified than she is. She'd be told to shove it where the sun don't shine. It would be silly. On top of that, the Congress will be Democrat Majority, she'll be down a creek without a paddle if she tries anything. They'll get her impeached if she tries too hard. She'll wish she was back in Wasilla.
Chris Matthews was basically telling Nancy Pfotenhauer in so many words, Nancy if John replaced Palin with you, I'd show more respect to the ticket, but the way it is now, I'm gonna have to call 'em like I see 'em. She ain't ready. not even close.
I'm shocked to see no "Mission Accomplished" banner in the Richmond Victory Center- why are they being so defeatist?
Stevens of course if convicted will be pardoned by Bush, among 1000s of other Repubs.
$10 to Obama for car magnet!
I know Montana isn't the most important state in the nation (3 EV), and Nate has McCain picked by slightly more than 6%. BUT I wonder if it won't be a lot closer because it appears that Ron Paul may well get 5-8% and those should all come out of McCain's share.
It is peculiar that the Obama photos are color and the McCain ones are not. Think about making them uniform.
"To be fair, I believe Dick Cheney had some important influence in the run-up to the Iraq War. In the new Woodward book, isn't there a part about Dick Cheney essentially scaring some Senators in supporting the invasion?"
I don't think Cheney counts as a Vice President. I don't even know what to call him. But, yes, Palin seems to think of the VP position in the Cheney model, AND THAT IS REALLY FREAKING SCARY.
Montana Conservative,
you are important - yes, it's only 3 EV (that BHO probably won't get), but we're all watching anyway - and hoping you join us in blue (ok, purple)
There's nothing false about hope.
- Senator BHO
Sean, despite his bias, must have been tempted to put his Country First and make some calls in Loudoun. Wasn't he?
Kristi is one sharp lady.
She's clueless.
Gee, are the McCain offices REALLY in black and white? That could explain a lot.
The latest from MN -
Bachmann calls Obama "Absolutely" anti-american.
Bachmann denies calling Obama anti-american.
Bachmann apologizes for calling Obama anti-american.
Bachmann behind in polls.
Bachmann gets national GOP support pulled
Chris Matthews v Nancy Pfotenhauer today regarding Palin wardrobe:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27327839#27327839
Montana Conservative said...
I know Montana isn't the most important state in the nation (3 EV), and Nate has McCain picked by slightly more than 6%. BUT I wonder if it won't be a lot closer because it appears that Ron Paul may well get 5-8% and those should all come out of McCain's share.
I listed your state on my potential Obama tipping points. I gotta keep all the states listed ahead of Montana though. I didn't include West Virginia and Arkansas. I also have Montana ranked ahead of Omaha. I think in Georgia, the African-American turnout could be overwhelming and surprising. North Dakota has had 3 polls in the last week or so. 2 had Obama ahead and 1 has it tied. I haven't seen that in Montana. gotta love Schweitzer though. My favorite new Dems on the national scene are Schweitzer, Kaine, McCaskill, Emanuel, and Wassrman-Schultz.
Who do we prefer for Prez in 2016, Schweitzer or Kaine?
doctathom,
you forgot to add that the GOP is pulling their ads in support of her.
McCain campaign CLAIMS they aren't abandoning Colorado, and McCain is coming here, but he's NOT going to be spending his own money here.
Rather the RNC will continue it's ad buys (and will target new ad buys in Colorado through election day). That means that the Republicans will rely on the negative ad campaign to bring down Obama and then somehow win with their GOTV efforts on election day.
Unless there's just MASSIVE vote suppression on election day though they haven't a prayer. Obama's lead is at least 5% and rock solid.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10779139
"Not only is the Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm targeting the state with big ad buys, but McCain — who will be flooding the airwaves here through Election Day, his campaign said — is slated to make three campaign stops in Colorado Friday.
McCain's visit comes on the heels of three appearances in the state earlier this week by his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Her husband, Todd, visited Colorado on Tuesday.
. . . .
Citing two anonymous McCain "strategists and advisers," CNN reported Monday that the McCain campaign saw its chances of winning Colorado (and Iowa and New Mexico) as "bleak" and was looking for ways to win the election without Colorado.
But the RNC independent arm, which is not bound by spending limits, has put Colorado on its target list, spokesman Brad Todd said. . . .
"How can anyone say we're going anywhere? We're spending a boatload of money in Colorado," said Frank Donatelli, the RNC's deputy chairman.
Obama currently leads McCain in Colorado by an average of 5 percentage points, according to recent polls."
Reality has a way of biting you in the ass, no matter how delusional you are. McCain can continue to make a play for Colorado if he wants to, but his senior advisers are right, they are pinning what hopes they have on flipping Pennsylvania.
Bachmann calls Obama "Absolutely" anti-american.
Bachmann denies calling Obama anti-american.
Bachmann apologizes for calling Obama anti-american.
Bachmann behind in polls.
Just gonna go ahead and extrapolate the rest of the list based on trends-
Bachmann loses the election in humiliation.
In other news, what a bounty of riches for 538 readers today. Six articles and we haven't even seen the pole number yet.
Bachmann goes on to successful career at Fox News.
@Inkstain
So are you saying that when the VP talks to a Congressman, they can only say things like "How's the wife and kids?" "Boy, it's been windy this week!" "My golf game is going to pieces." Etc?
You don't think they talk about government/legislative issues? And if they do talk about government/legislation then the partisan views of any given person in Congress or the Executive branch would almost, by definition, cause them to talk about it in a favorable light to their point of view. In essence, that's lobbying, it just depends on the degree to which a given topic is promoted.
It is hard for me to believe that these types of conversations don't take place all the time. I just think it's a bit absurd to think that when a VP is in a room with a few Congressmen/women... and they have a discussion - that the discussion would never have to do with governemental issues, and if the conversation does end up on governmental issues, that the VP's position on the issue(s) never comes up.
I have a questions about these robo calls. Do they just randomly call people or do they have lists that they go off?
Also not to be misunderstood. I also dislike mandatory sentencing. But these calls tries to make it sound like Obama will just let murderers and rapists walk around on the streets. I don't think anyone will fall for this kind of crap, though. Then again, I have been wrong so many times...
"Bachmann goes on to successful career at Fox News."
Whoa whoa whoa...you missed:
Bachmann undergoes massive facial plastic surgery to make her more telegenic (chicken neck, I'm looking at you).
Ted Striker -- the GOP lie about Obama's tax plan is that they pretend that income taxes are the only taxes, and he's talking about taxes overall. In the real world where the income tax isn't the only tax, it's not true that "40% of the population doesn't pay taxes."
The reason the Obama camp isn't responding except by repeating the truth is that that attack isn't working. The whole time McCain has been running with that, Obama has been gaining in the polls on the question of who people trust on taxes.
When your opponent is sinking, it's best to just stay out of the way.
...Bachmann blames it on "antichrist" Pope and gay recruits.
@ted
You are now intentionally obfuscating. Nobody said the strawman you are building up.
There is a material difference between the VP lobbying the executive branch's position and trying to exert influence as president of the senate. Since you seem unwilling to address that, and instead build strawmen, I will just let this conversation go.
"You don't think they talk about government/legislative issues?"
Dude, you're way off. We're talking about constitutional POWERS, not merely who's talking to who in the capital. Hell, all the cabinet and president can and do talk to legislators on both sides of the aisle to get their agenda through, but that's not congruous with constitutionally delegated powers.
Moreover, You need to stop doing this constant devil's advocate crap you've been doing the last several days. It gets tiresome.
I lived in Northern Virginia for 19 years, and needless to say I'm very offended by what Pfotenhauer said. Yeah, it's different culturally, but don't you dare tell me I'm not a real Virginian.
nakamura: from a purely art perspective, the mccain office photos are better- more tasteful and poignant.
"Even I've been interviewed by Chris Matthews"
Sums it up perfectly
Excellent reporting again, Sean
Seriously, book deal. It's a must!!
hahahaha
David Gregory: "And what hasn't been pointed out in this whole discussion about her clothing is, you know, she really does look good."
LOL
"the GOP lie about Obama's tax plan is that they pretend that income taxes are the only taxes, and he's talking about taxes overall. In the real world where the income tax isn't the only tax, it's not true that "40% of the population doesn't pay taxes.""
This is a good point. They themselves point out that 40% of the people don't pay income taxes, then they try and paint their child tax credit as something good for all Americans. Yeah, um...at least 40% of Americans get jackshit from child tax credit. Gee, thanks for nothing JM.
Robert E Lee was from northeastern Virginia, they don't come more "Real-Virginian" than that guy.
Why is the Secretary of State in Colorado a RepubliCON?! The Gov is a Dem!!! The Pubs will steal Colorado, gotta find the elctoral votes elsewhere.
She's Hotter than Palin.
Ted Striker - With regard to Matthews and Palin on the role of the VP, you have to put it in the context of her previous statements (masterfully compiled by Olbermann last night.) While this answer may have been a relatively innocuous misstatement on its own, her previous statements make it clear that she believes the Constitution gives the president the "flexibility" to give the VP more authority over the Senate, which is absolutely false. He can certainly choose to use the VP as his go-between, and senators can decide how much they like it, but with regard to power, her sense of the Constitutional role of the VP is ludicrously inflated, and anyone with serious aspirations to the position who is so woefully misinformed deserves whatever mocking he/she gets.
Wolf Blitzer, on the $700B bailout bill that contained an additional $100B of pork:
"Where would you as president draw the line between vetoing that kind of spending bill, or accepting it because of the greater good?"
John McCain:
"I would veto any bill including those that I voted on."
WHAT!
Katherine Hanley is Secretary of commonwealth of Virginia. She's a Dem. We've got that one covered.
I wonder how Obama will treat the senate after he becomes potus?
I have the idea that he will pop in every week or two for a chat.
"Even I've been interviewed by Chris Matthews."
I'm glad we pick our beauty queens for brains as well as beauty here in VA. :-)
John McCain wants to veto a bill he voted on? Does that make sense to anyone?
@ blame... doubt that type of behavior for Obama. His calendar will have no time for that type of frequent interaction.
Why is VA #1 for tipping point State?
Shadowguidex said...
"Dude, you're way off. We're talking about constitutional POWERS, not merely who's talking to who in the capital. Hell, all the cabinet and president can and do talk to legislators on both sides of the aisle to get their agenda through, but that's not congruous with constitutionally delegated powers.
Moreover, You need to stop doing this constant devil's advocate crap you've been doing the last several days. It gets tiresome."
First off... if you are going to denigrate my posts, read the entire thread of them before you spout off. My first post on this topic specifically calls out that Palin is completely wrong:
If you are too lazy to scroll up, I stated:
"I agree that Palin horribly misstated the role of the VP."
and...
"[I]t is completely true that a VP's job in the Senate is strictly ceremonial other than the tie breaker..."
So don't start being an asshat and saying I'm off base when I already agreed with the constitutional powers argument you bring up.
Secondly, you must be smoking a bit too much of the hippy lettuce. I have not been playing devil's advocate at all over "the past few days." I haven't even freaking posted hardly anything over the past few days. And who the hell made you the dictator of who says what on this website anyway? You might want to ratchet down your own ego a few notches and take a breath. I'm not a troll, I'm not a devil's advocate, my posts relate to things I'm generally interested in and curious about.
Zip it.
McCain has to convert 70 electoral votes in 288 hours after dealing with Sarah Palin's wardrobe. Obama has shut down 36 hours of that time by devoting time to his ailing grandmother. McCain and Palin can't campaign West and East. If you just work out where they need to be, it's sure to be PA for 5 of the next 10 days.
Palin to NBC: "You'll see" I'm healthy if records are released
I've been volunteering for Obama here in VA for weeks ("the REAL" VA) and the enthusiasm is striking. Offices full of volunteers at all hours (and new offices opened to handle the overflow). I have yet to run into a McCain canvasser while I have encountered Obama vols all over the city. His rally in Richmond today was thousands above capacity. It really is happening.
@ ted striker
...You might want to ratchet down your own ego a few notches and take a breath. I'm not a troll, I'm not a devil's advocate, my posts relate to things I'm generally interested in and curious about.
Zip it.
^5. You're rather animated. Well said.
Background here again - remember Palin's worst enemy in Alaskan politics is the GOP Senate leader. Among other issues, apparently she frequently overstepped boundaries between their branches and offended Senators.
She likely grabbed on to the idea that the VP is also Pres of the Senate and thought, wow, that's nifty, that's something I'll really like to do.
Wow. Chris Matthews is a relentless tool, but I really appreciated his pressure on Pfotenthiselectionhauer.
Obama doesn't even need all these states. If he takes all the Kerry states plus VA and IA, he's won. Or NC + NV. So many combinations! NM, NV, CO, NC, FL, OH, we're into landslide territory. I smell 400 electoral votes, moving into range.
These names are very, very relevant. They control voting in their respective battleground states. Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 were manned by Republican Secretaries of State that purged and suppressed enough to hand their states to the Republicans. Perhaps Ohio would've gone Republican anyway. The point is they likely have the elction in their hand, if their state and the election itself is close. Pay attention to this. it's important. RFK Jr. mentioned almost 20% of Colorado's voters have been purged. What a surprise. It's a Republican, so was his predecessor. Watch carefully, this is being undercovered.
REPUBLICAN
Mike Coffman Colorado
Kurt Browning Florida
Todd Rokita Indiana
Terri Lynn Land Michigan
DEMOCRATS
Elaine Marshall North Carolina
Ross Miller Nevada
Katherine Hanley Virginia
Jennifer Brunner
Pedro Cortes Pennsylvania (I think)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Ritchie
a list of all Secretaries of State can be found at the bottom of the link above
My state is slipped out of the battleground category to Safe Dem.
AA population of ~7%, wow.
Missed, state of WI
My God. Chris Matthews just tore Nancy a new fanny.
Oh my word...Chris Matthews lost his mind on Nancy Pfotenhaur (sp?) today on Hardball. He was like a rabid animal...so offended by Sarah P. Poor Nancy Pf. And there was Bill Burton just grinning in the background trying not to laugh out loud. What will we do when this tragi-com opera is finished?
@ one$ - nearest I can figure, it's the '04 red state that Obama has the best chance at winning at this point (CO and NM have cases to make, too); if he loses it, it means he's almost certainly lost the election.
I just can't believe that this is going to be as easy as the math says it's gonna be. I have a feeling that there's dirty tricks a-brewin' in OH and FL (dirty tricks don't show up in polls), but VA, CO and NM are all in the bag.
That's actually an interesting question for Nate; is there a way to work some sort of estimate of how many voters may be purged from the rolls into the model? We all saw Kevin Spacey in Recount. I'm just getting my quadrennial case of Blue-Election-Day-Jitters.
Just a note on the NV ground game. I live near Sacramento, I lived in Reno for 8 yrs, and I have a lot of friends/family who live in or near Reno.
From a first hand perspective... there is a noticeably larger DEM presence in and around the Reno area than in any previous election I can remember (which goes back to 1980 for myself).
@Ik,
Thanks
McCain says cunt in a rally today
video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX1ImnGQYcE
My senator's talking to Gregory. Let's see if he gets my vote next time . ..
That Miss Virginia is GORGEOUS!
@ dave from san....
stay focus, but you're right. We only can think it here we can't say it.
Remember we're geeks according to some.
McCain in NH: Obama plans election night "stadium spectacle"
dave from san antone said...
That Miss Virginia is GORGEOUS!
yes she is
Ted Striker said...
I'm going to repost this here since I just realized it was posted on a dead thread.
Obama key point: "We are going to give a tax break to 95% of Americans."
McCain and his surrogates have stated dozens of times in response to this: "If that's technically true, that 95% of ALL Americans are getting a tax break from Obama, then Obama is stating that he's going to be giving money to many people who do not pay taxes in the first place... since the bottom 40% or so of Americans do not have sufficient income to pay taxes."
I've heard ONE time and ONE time only an Obama surrogate say in response to this McCain camp argument something like the following: "No, Obama is referring to 95% of the people who pay taxes, NOT 95% of all people... he will not be giving money to people who currently do not pay taxes."
I don't understand why, that if this is true - that Obama is actually not giving money to anyone who doesn't currently pay taxes - why isn't the Obama camp putting out ads, statements, etc everywhere clarifying this? Why is the Obama camp letting the McCain camp continuously attack Obama using the line that current taxpayers are going to be paying money directly to the bottom 40% of the of the population that do not currently pay taxes?
Well, the problem is that -- technically -- the McCain argument is correct.
Incredibly deceptive and intellectually dishonest, of course, but still technically correct.
First, these refundable credits only apply to people that actually earn income, just like all other refundable tax credits (e.g. Earned Income Credit).
The McCainiacs are pulling a sleight of hand here, talking about the bottom 40% that don't pay taxes -- not 40% of workers, just 40% of people.
Second, even if they were to amend that and pick a number of workers who don't pay any income tax, it's still intellectually dishonest because they have to pay payroll taxes, which make up the vast majority of their total tax bill. (BTW, everyone outside the top 20% pays more payroll taxes than income taxes.)
Third, the most dishonest part is calling a refundable tax credit "welfare" and characterizing it as "socialist." Well, since the EITC came into being under Reagan, that means that Reagan was socialist who expanded the welfare state.
(Speaking of which, Obama's taxes are lower than Reagans, but you don't hear anyone bitching living under socialism in the 1980s.)
So, again, they're very deliberately parsing their words to make the statement technically correct while still being designed to give a massively deceptive impression in the minds of voters.
Marc Ambinder :
How McCain Can Win -- The Arguments
Here is the argument that some McCain campaign advisers are making right now to donors and others who ask for a single, plausible scenario by which Sen. John McCain wins the election.
It rests on certain assumptions about the electorate that seem almost provably false at this point, but not provably false enough so as to render them completely bizarre.
The goal here is to give people a sense of what the candidate is being told by his advisers, nothing more. Think of what's below as a set of Republican talking points.
The Republican Party has built a presidential election machine that is tested and proven, the argument begins. Its voter database, Voter Vault, has 150 million potential Republican voters listed, each with dozens of psychographic datums appended.
The Party knows how to turn out Republican voters in red states. The Democratic Party has no record of turning out sporadic Democratic voters in presidential years in red states. It is not reasonable to assume, therefore, that Democrats can really turn out the voters they say they will, while Republicans have a record of turning out habitual Republican voters. How can Democrats build good and accurate voter lists in these red states?
Take Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels leads his Democratic opponent, Jill Long Thompson, by a healthy margin. Can you imagine Mitch Daniels voters choosing Obama?
Obama's in trouble in Pennsylvania. Why else is Ed Rendell begging Obama to return there?
In 2006, the Republican base was depressed after "Macaca" and Jim Webb still only barely managed a victory there.
The GOP will spend $70 million on GOTV in the next 13 days.
Obama isn't breaking 50% in Ohio and Florida. It's hard to imagine a big shift to him in the final ten days, when the mind is concentrated, when imponderables come into play.
Colorado is tough... but Pennsylvania is doable.
Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri will all revert to partisan form. Already, McCain's campaign has factored in census + 1 turnout for African Americans, and there are plausible scenarios under which McCain wins.
Several polls -- including McCain's internal polls -- show that some white male voters who broke away from McCain [ed note: but did not support Obama] are coming back to McCain's fold.
Oh, and all this talk of Barack Obama leading in the early vote? So did John Kerry.
I think Burton may still be laughing about Matthews dressing down Pfotenphony. I'm sure he wanted to get the hell out of there so no cameras caught him when he lost it (and not wanting to be anywhere near Matthews after he got so worked up!!)
But hooray Chris Matthews for making it VERY clear that Palin (and apparently the Mc campaign) just don't understand the roles they're seeking!! Just a pity he didn't have the Greatest Hits of Sarah Palin's Constitutional Ignorance (as compiled by Olbermann) to further bitchslap Pfotendustbunny when she started the whole "she was addressing the answer to a third grader" crap.
I just wanted to thank everyone for their commentary here. I have a blog and, overwhelmingly, people attack the blogger more than they discuss the issues. Ad hominem at its best. The reason I was so excited to talk with Sean (who is AWESOME), was to do my part to keep people talking about the issues, and that's exactly what we're doing. I'm so pleased! Oh, and then there's the "she's hot" and "Miss Virginia for President in 2016." I LOVE it. =) And to the one poster who said I should be an ambassador? I was sent to lobby the President of Parliment and the President of Greece in 2006... more than we can say for Palin, right? Thanks again, guys, and GET OUT THE VOTE!
I just wanted to thank everyone for their commentary here. I have a blog and, overwhelmingly, people attack the blogger more than they discuss the issues. Ad hominem at its best. The reason I was so excited to talk with Sean (who is AWESOME), was to do my part to keep people talking about the issues, and that's exactly what we're doing. I'm so pleased! Oh, and then there's the "she's hot" and "Miss Virginia for President in 2016." I LOVE it. =) And to the one poster who said I should be an ambassador? I was sent to lobby the President of Parliment and the President of Greece in 2006... more than we can say for Palin, right? Thanks again, guys, and GET OUT THE VOTE!
"Take Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels leads his Democratic opponent, Jill Long Thompson, by a healthy margin. Can you imagine Mitch Daniels voters choosing Obama?"
Since I live there I thought that one was kind of funny. Jill Thompson has been so broke she hasn't aired ads for a month. Her campaign is tanking in part because she has banked entirely on a negative message aimed at tying Daniels to Bush (which is extra ineffective, because Indiana's economy isn't doing that badly).
Daniels is winning because he has dominated the airwaves with a positive message and a plan on the economy. It strikes me as absolutely the case that Daniels voters would respond well to Obama's similar campaign.
An addendum: on IU campus I can't take two steps without somebody trying to register me to vote for Obama. All I have seen of the Republican campaign is sidewalk chalk (obviously Monroe county is a dem-leaning place, but still).
So let's see. We have two McCain spokespeople saying that George Washington was a commie and not a real Virginian?
Look for Mount Vernon on the map and tell me I'm wrong.
WOULD.
I worked in the Richmond Obama office this summer and I can tell you they have about as good of a staff as any. It's very young and these guys work harder than you could imagine. I'm not exaggerating when I say most of the state staff will put in seventeen,eighteen hour days...every day of the week. These people are driven beyond belief.
Why is this board full of moronic liberals? You and I know that what Pfotenhauer said is, while a bit offensive, totally accurate. Northern Virginia is more a part of Maryland than Virginia. And Kristi needs to concentrate more on looking good and leave the politics to the people who have a clue.
VIrginia will be tough for McCain. McCain is not a great candidate, but he is necessary to prevent all-Dem rule, many more government entitlements, radical judges, and a naive and anti-Israel foreign policy. Many smart people I know are voting Obama, but they are clueless as to his past and how these associations, truly radical ones, will guide his presidency. But as I said, McCain cannot win Virginia. His only shot is Colorado, and the crazy play for PA.
PA should be a good state for McCain. It's older, blue-collar, and has many, many salt-of the earth "Real Americans" who should by no means vote for the elusive and shady Obama. McCain needs to do culture, culture, culture. All politics is local, and Pennsylvania is a state with good and traditional cultural standards. In the end, McCain will lose the electoral vote by 1%, and he will win PA by running up totals where Hillary did well. The good people of PA will realize their decision can save the country from disaster, and they will make the right one. McCain wins PA by 0.3%, and with it the White House.
Oops, meant McCain loses the "Popular" vote by 1%. He wins Colorado by 2% and PA by 0.3% to win the White House.
Riots are then likely to result.
I read 538 every day at work, but due to communications restrictions, I can never post... but since I have a minute at home now, I just wanted to write and say how much I've loved the 'On the Road' series you guys have done. I've actually linked to it the last time I sent an Obama appeal to friends and colleagues, showing them just how much groundwork there is to be done -- and to rest easy that if they themselves can't find the time to be personally involved every day, their donations to the campaign are clearly being well-spent!
I'm very excited about how this election is shaping up -- I'm not going to count my chickens before they get elected -- but I'm feeling good. I almost wish that McCain had run a better campaign, and picked a better veep. You can already hear the republicans making excuses for why McCain lost. They don't need excuses though, they need some real soul-searching about how ugly, venal, and destructive their brand of politics and policy has become.
Great work Sean and Brett! Great math, Nate!
"Obama needs to scoot back through NC in the next week and have a 1 on 1 game with Michael Jordan."
Well, he had Sam Perkins here with him in the spring, and everybody knows that Big Smooth is the "Real North Carolina." ;>
But it was pretty awesome when Barack practiced with some of the Tar Heels. They kicked his butt, but I thought it was impressive that he could run with them as well as he did. A bunch of those guys are in my department, and teaching them is intimidating - they are HUGE. I know it seems stupid, but I felt a different kind of respect for "the Junior Senator from Illinois" after seeing him run the floor with Tyler Hansbrough.
Jeez folks, have a little faith in Colorado.
I have every faith in the good people of Colorado. It's the Regressives counting (or not counting) the votes that have me highly alarmed.
Rest assured, my fellow ski bums and I will deliver Colorado for Obama.
--Tom in Beaver Creek
Just wanted to say hi to kristi Lauren and thank you for your participation in this. You seem like an intelligent and beautiful woman. I am glad you are getting involved, and the discussion on this board(except for the trolls) is quite illuminating.
I live in Richmond. 538's depiction of the McCain/Palin campaign offices is accurate. Their entire grassroots campaign consists of lawn signs and bumper stickers. I've volunteered a few times and there are so many people helping out that I honestly feel unneeded at times! I'm usually pessimistic when it comes to elections (after the past 8 years do you blame me?), but this year I'm not even worried about VA going Blue. I know it will, but I'm not going to give up until the last vote is submitted.
It's time we called such comments out for what they are - bigoted. It's really quite simple "real Virginia" is code for white, Southern by heritage and Protostant.
An earlier post mentioned that Northern VA is more like MD than Virginia. While true, it obscures a more important fact. Most of "real Virginia" is a net receiver of state funds while Norhtern Virginia and the next few metropolitan areas are net donors to the state general fund. Without Northern Virginia, and to a lesser extent the Hampton Roads area around Norfolk, Virginia would resemble Alabama - culturally and economically.
The sad truth is that Pfotenhauer's Virginia and Palin and "small town America" aren't pulling their weight. According to Brookings "The top 100 metropolitan areas are home to 68 percent of America's jobs and the origin of 75 percent of the nation's gross domestic product."
http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2008/1008_smalltowns_katz.aspx
I got your real Virginia right here McCain!
ALEXANDRIANS FOR OBAMA
First Cheney had to apologize to West Virginia. Now the state of Virginia is upset. I am glad I grew up in Jersey where we always appreciate any mention that we can get..Maybe Sarah can give her one of her hand me downs and a moosehead for her wall....
I'm still looking for this Fake Virginia! Where is it? Can someone give me directions?
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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