“The only thing to do was go. Dean leaped up and said we were ready to go back to Virginia. He took a shower, I cooked up a big platter of rice with all that was left in the house, Marylou sewed his socks, and we were ready to go.”
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
Ah, "Communist Country."
Communist Country, which includes Falls Church, Virginia, taught us about Hub Directors. Two aspiring Leninists, Kate Stanton and Kim Peyser, and one longtime Trotskyite, Ed Gerwin, ranted to us about Che Guevara and talked about how the Obama campaign is running its GOTV operations here in northern Virginia.
What's a Hub Director? In essence, Hub Directors are full-time volunteers who manage the inflow and outflow of volunteers for get-out-the-vote (GOTV) canvassing efforts. Because there are such an enormous number of volunteers for Barack Obama's GOTV efforts in NoVa, the regular field offices simply cannot physically accommodate all the people. (Obama's DC suburbs operation is not alone in this happy logistical challenge.) As GOTV kicks in, separate physical staging locations have mushroomed all over the state and country. These are offices dedicated entirely to GOTV, and in turn many have their own satellite locations.
Stanton, a recent University of Michigan grad, became a full time unpaid volunteer shortly after she showed up at the office in late August. She'd come to volunteer for a phonebank, because she'd heard that was something she could do to help. Before she knew it, an organizer recruited her to sign on for much greater responsibility than she'd anticipated. "I guess I looked like I had a lot of free time," she joked. "You seem like a reasonably intelligent person. Here, go do this." Now she works from 9 am to at least 12:30 or 1 am every single day.
While we were there, a volunteer informed the Hub team, "Jackie has no canvassers." Jackie, apparently, was one of the canvassing coordinators out at a staging location. Since one of the canvassing coordinators out in the field didn't have anyone at that moment, Stanton and the team shifted on the fly. The team had a priority alert, and moved swiftly to redirect volunteers toward the staging location running on empty.
Peyser, who'd worked for the Democratic National Convention in Denver, was used to working with scheduling events. Like the other Hub Directors, she worked full-time volunteer hours. Asked how she had time to do this, she said she had an understanding father who happened to be a lobbyist, could not donate to the Obama campaign for that reason, and his contribution was subsidizing her living expenses while she worked. (If Obama wins, he may be open to charges of the unique but still suspicious lobbyist-daughter-volunteer-influence-peddling.)
She told us about one of the wall lists that adorn every Obama office -- this one had positions like "Data Trainer," "Phonebank Captain," "Master Trainer," and so forth, with names, numbers and shift times filling the wall sheets. As Peyser managed "runners," those volunteers responsible for going back and forth from the Hub Director team to the GOTV staging locations with information, literature refills, and any other items needing to be shuttled, she told us about the GOTV shift plans.
On Election Day, beginning at midnight until 3 am, Obama canvassers will quietly drop literature at the houses of sporadic voters who commute long distances beginning as early as 4 am. A small reminder piece of literature about Election Day needs to hit those voters at a precisely-timed moment: before they begin their long workdays. Another canvassing shift goes from 5-8 am, another no-knocking lit drop, but timed to voters who would be ideally caught at their cars and met with a smile and a reminder about which voting location is his or hers.
Remember, these are highly targeted GOTV-universe voters, ones that have been identified through the massive voter contact effort and/or profiled with Catalist, the Obama team's advanced datamining tool, so these are voters the campaign thinks will vote their way, provided they go vote. Actual knocking on doors will likely begin at 10 am on Election Day. Peyser said that the average canvasser will do a three-hour canvassing shift and be given turf with 30-40 doors, depending on the compactness of the turf. High-density turf will likely have more doors. Turf with more doors will be given to the better, more efficient longtime canvass volunteers.
Ed Gerwin, who recently retired from the law firm where he was a partner, had been donating extensive volunteer time to the Obama campaign since the primary season. Falls Church was his 13th office, and he'd worked in South Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota. He likened his role to that of a bartender after a long day's canvass. Other volunteers would return, talk about a tough day out at the doors, and he'd listen to the telling before reinforcing the value of each door knocked and each data point collected.
Noting that he and one of the organizers had helped identify and rent the Falls Church office, which used to be a beauty salon, Gerwin talked about "the luxury of space." With so many people trying to help out -- 660 people attended just this one office opening -- having workspace to accomplish critical organizing tasks made all the difference.
Stationed tight at the front of the entrance, Gerwin was often the first line of attack in fielding yard sign complaints. He ruefully recalled one woman telling him, "you guys are incompetent," in what surely is as ironic a statement as has been made in this campaign season.
Adjacent to the Hub Director space is an entire room dedicated solely to walk packet assembly line operations. Priscilla Mendenhall, another full-time volunteer who'd started a walk packet assembly operation at the Fairfax office and moved up to create one in Falls Church, demonstrated her organization. She manages approximately 20 regular volunteers and a myriad of others who assemble 700 walk packets a week. Some come from Maryland, DC, and some are local, people who aren't as comfortable going to the doors but who want to work and help.
Up until GOTV, Mendenhall said, she had standing orders from field organizers what turf they wanted cut and packaged, and so she'd just run the orders. One challenge is that the turf organized by the Falls Church office comprised two separate Congressional districts, so separating literature for downballot candidates added an extra wrinkle that Mendenhall handled adroitly. Suggested that the language she used in describing her operation sounded like that of a regular business (running orders, etc.), she noted that as someone used to running an interpreter service in the District she found thinking of her operation as a business a natural way to run things.
Still, Mendenhall, who also has done much community organizing for multicultural populations seeking affordable access to healthcare, told us the work didn't come without sacrifice. Like the other full time volunteers, this is all she does. "I don't cook, I haven't gone grocery shopping in weeks, and I mostly go home, take a hot bath, sleep, and come right back."
By our observation, the Falls Church, Virginia Obama office is as impressive an operation as we have seen in the dozens and dozens of offices we've seen across the nation. In one of Al Giordano's reports from the field in North Carolina, he included a note that one of that state's RFDs (regional field directors) had sent her organizers:
Stay calm - and BE RELENTLESS today. Get everyone motivated, educated, and into the field as quickly and as often as possible..."Win every single hour."
GET THEM COMFORTABLE WITH A BREAK-NECK PACE. They need to be the cool heads by the time GOTV rolls around...
Report your numbers like clock-work. Call me if you need me. Don't stop until your last shift is confirmed for Sunday...
Barack really is expecting a lot out us - and there isn't much else for him to do. He has placed this election in our hands at this point. It's up to us now. We may never again have our hands on history quite like this again for as long as we live. That makes each hour so so precious. We can slack off, sleep in, and make excuses for the rest of our lives. But today - and for the next 3 weeks... whether we knew what we were getting into or not... we have ended up with people's lives, livelihoods, and dreams for their children - all dependent on our performance day in and day out. This is our one chance at history... our one chance at perfection. Our one chance to live forever. So today - breathe this in... realize that your grandkids will be reading about you... realize that you will miss this feeling very very soon... and win every single hour.
Proud of you in advance for a big day...
Nothing better summarizes the feeling we got in the Falls Church, Virginia office of Senator Barack Obama's Campaign for Change.


350 comments
PA John:
If I recall, we were all biting our fingernails at the beginning of September. I was nervous as all piss. Palin didn't look at all like a good pick then, but I was worried that her hotness would be backed up by her scripted bad-assness at the RNC. Fortunately, she proved to be a completely inarticulate dumbfuck in subsequent interviews. It very well might not have turned out like that -- but in September, it seemed like we were in for a serious race.
Here's me hoping that nothing fucked up happens in the next two weeks.
FYI, the same organization is taking place here in New Hampshire, but targeting much smaller towns. I have been helping secure a GOTV staging location for the spoke of the Concord, NH hub headed up the I-89 corridor (towards Vermont) that is run out of the Concord office. Our Hub Director's area consists of about 5-7 towns of populations of 2 to 6 thousand people. There is no shortage of volunteers either (especially given the overflows from Massachusetts and Vermont). I think the McCain organization is strong here, too, as it should be based on the groundwork laid during his two successful primary campaigns here. We are meeting tomorrow night to organize GOTV efforts for Election Day (no early voting in NH). We have been canvassing all these towns for about 2-3 months now.
BTW, the latest poll in NH (Obama +7 compared with +4 a month ago by the same pollster) shows Shaheen comfortably ahead of Sununu and Shea-Porter (CD-1) with her first lead over Jeb Bradley (former Congressman, moderate Republican, defeated in '06). Hodes has CD-2 locked up. Lynch (D-governor) has a cake-walk.
Speaking as a member of Southern Virginia, I support Obama and I am certainly not alone. On the way home I drive by large "VIRGINIA IS MCCAIN COUNTY!" signs, but when I turn onto my neighborhood street all the homes have Obama signs- mine included. Unfortunately we lose signs as fast as we put them up- someone has been stealing all pro-Obama signs in the night, and there's little we can do it about beyond report it to the sheriff- but we have not given up hope. I have called all my friends and convinced them to vote for Obama, and I will not rest until I am sure Virginia will go down on November 4th as a blue state. Please, Obama, do not give up on southern Virginia. I know our voting history, but I've seen the young voters like myself and they want CHANGE. Bill Clinton's pro-Obama rally at VCU made a huge difference among college students, especially my little brother who has been going door-to-door in Richmond for the Obama campaign and has been trying to convince his friends to do the same. Campaigning here IS worth it- there are many, many people who want you to be the president.
Come November 4th I am voting for Barack Obama, as will every young person I know. Most aren't bloggers and are anything but hip, but we know the future of the nation when we see it and hear it. I'm proud of the Obama campaign for being able to reach many, vast demographics of people, but here in New Kent County we are the same old story in an unexpected location.
To any bloggers in New Kent: Signs will be available down at Blue's Coffeehouse on Saturday at 11 in the morning! Be there!
@ Matthew H:
Thank you for your service to the campaign. You now own a piece of it. If we could get another 20 million people to donate not only their vote but 5 hours of their time, there is no way we wouldn't see real change as a result.
Drudge reporting that Zogby is going to be O +10
@Jamie,
I have read something about putting grease or some gooey stuff on the signs as a way to keep people from stealing them. Anyone care to elaborate?
lat said-
"guys really you must check out that link I have there for the yahoo story from Politico on the Palin RNC shopping spree of 150K. Over 75K for one shopping spree in MN? I like to shop and love clothes but that is unbelievable."
___________________________________
I read that article lat. I would absolutely be McCain's running mate for $150,000 in free clothes. My God, I couldn't be any worse at it than Palin. Though of course I do not read all magazines.
The biggest guarantee against GOP vote fraud would be polls showing him as the likely winner.
The people doing the fraud are far less likely to try if whatever they might do is far less than what it will take to win, for the very simple reason that they could be investigated by the Obama DOJ.
If 20 million people gave 20 dollars each, that would be one hell of a fundraising haul.
After the Republican convention, there was an e-mail that circulated from a gal who worked at Neiman Marcus (Mall of America)on commission. She had made some sales to Palin including a dress that Palin ended up wearing on TV. The sales gal was obviously proud until her commission was revoked several days later when the dress Palin had worn was returned to a Neiman Marcus in a different state. Speaks volumes for the type of person Palin is.
emonokari: No. McCain has never led in PA. One tie in a mid-September Rasmussen poll at the height of the McCain bounce.
eve said...
As impressed as I am with Obama and with this national volunteer organization, I will say it's not working great everywhere.
I have emailed and called to volunteer and I get nada response.
Eve,
I am in texas and have been requested to volunter in Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. I've also been requested to call Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri. They are very facilitating. It's more smoothly run than any govt agency I've ever come across and a more well-oiled machine than most businesses. It's really close to perfect, which is remarkable since it's ground-breaking and shouldn't be perfected yet.
Obama supporters...
Pay close attention to the last 6 minutes of the Rachel Maddow show. She talks about snatching defeat out of victory for the Democrats.
We have to believe we're going to win and make it a self fulfilling prophecy.
The re airing of the Rachel Maddow show in 25 minutes.
It's a contest and a race until you reached the finish line, November 4th, 2008.
Barack understands, not all his surrogates understand.
In 1932, in a year when FDR won 42 of 48 states, Herbert Hoover somehow won Pennsylvania. I have no idea why (the only other states Hoover won were Maine, NH, and VT, which were almost always GOP then, Connecticut, often GOP, and Delaware.) Dewey rather than Truman won it in 1948.
Historically, PA voted Republican until JFK.
jen--I would say go for it. Anyone who can actually answer the vp question better than she does is better on the ticket.
Did nj moderate say that Obama was gaffe prone? Or did I misread that? I wonder if anyone could itemize these perceived gaffes?
ERic,
That is weird b/c I get 2 -3 text messages a week and multiple emails to volunteer per week in IN and MO, I live in IL. Have you tried contacting people thru the obama website? They are good at getting back to people in my experience, same with sister in NYC who volunteers in PA.
Sean my last name is Quinn as well. Maybe we are related. Especially if you Carolina/Mississippi roots.
@dave brodbeck:
I already did, see my comment in the first 200.
I responded to Eve's concern OTF, read my response.
I wonder if we'll see a "Grandma bounce" for Obama these next few days.
Maybe that's inapprorpiate, but all things need to viewed with the horserace in mind. Frankly, I don't see how taking 2 days off hurts Obama. In fact it helps. Obama likely can only lose due to some big gaff on his part. Now, he really can't take the rest of the campaign off as the public would be asking questions "What are you afraid of?" But now, he has an excuse to take 2 days - on those 2 days, McCain can't attack that aggressively, certainly no Ayers references, and Obama can't gaff. It's a brilliant 4-corners strategy. Dean Smith would be proud.
Did nj moderate say that Obama was gaffe prone? Or did I misread that? I wonder if anyone could itemize these perceived gaffes?
Today he said: "I think you may have noticed that (my opponents)supporters are saying some pretty nasty things about Western Pennsylvania lately. And you know, I couldn't agree with them more"
Oh... wait... that was John McCain today.
Why is it that most democrats, outside of those who read RCP, 538, etc are so pessimistic?
Anytime I tell them there's pretty much no chance McCain wins, it's just "wishful thinking" on my part.
I mean it is a good thing. We fight hard because we're afraid of losing, which makes us win bigger when we win.
Idiots like Maddow gotta stop this "snatch defeat" idiocy. Name me 1 time a Dem lost when he should have won in a presidential contest. In fact, it was Bush who almost lost in 2000 due to stupidly campaigning in California, the DUI relevation. Gore was toast and came back to win teh popular vote and basically tie Florida.
Kerry was toast in 2004 the instant Bush's approval ratings inched above 50%.
The only candidates the past 50 years to snatch defeat from victory were Dewey and Nixon (1960). REPUBLICANS.
@kid g thanks, good response.
I just read the article about Governor Palin and/or the RNC dropping $75K at a shopping spree in September. It was at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis. At first, I was mildly pleased that our economy got this boost. Then, I thought, maybe they shopped in MN because there is no TAX on clothing here?
Cool, it's the office I volunteer at. Too bad I wasn't there when you were :(
@pa john:
Did McCain really say that? That makes less sense then his my fellow prisoners comment.
Pollsters like Battleground and Zogby have way too much movement to be taken as seriously as the big ones, Rasmussen and Gallup.
How the hell does Battleground go from Obama +13 to Obama +1 in less than a week, and in Zogby Obama +2 to Obama +10 in what 3-4 days???
Makes NO since either way you look at it.. Thank God for polling averages...
@Matt: Arnold is no RINO. He's a true conservative, and he was hand picked by Cheney to help throw Davis overboard. Yeah, the Gropenator is better on the social issues, but he has to be because it's California.
He promised not to accept special interest money when he began his campaign, and it turns out he has accepted more special interest money than Gray Davis. And that's saying something.
He's also not the "green" governor everybody thinks he is. Lots of big developers are his donors.
And Arnold is no friend of unions, working class people, children, or people who have no health insurance.
Prop. 8 is not going to increase GOP turnout. The largest group supporting Prop. 8 that I have seen is Hispanics, and they will vote for Obama.
Do not get overconfident. Continue to work and donate as if we were 2 points behind and closing.
But this is going to be a blowout. At least 380 EV and a 53-46-1 margin. And the end of the racist, homophobic, super patriotic neo-con Republican Party as we know it.
And we can thank Sean Inanity and Rough Limbaugh for convincing Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt (the world's greatest strategist) to run the campaign "their way."
If McCain has responded carefully and cautiously to the economic meltdown he actually could have won this thing. But Phil Gramm had him convinced this was a nation of whiners and it was all in our heads.
So, McCain's selection of Rick Davis, Steve Schmidt, Phil Gramm and, oh yes, Sarah Palin, demonstrates
WORST. CAMPAIGN. EVER.
Happy Birthday NC Redhead.
Thanks for weighing in Sean.
New South Dakota poll by KELO/Argus-Leader...
M: 48
O: 41
O's not gonna win here, but it's nice to see it fairly close.
@Robert:
> Nate!
> You should take Erik Nilsson's post ane make it a new THREAD!!!!
> No matter how people will vote a fair election is important. People
> need to know their rights and where to turn when their rights are abused.
Robert, you are too kind.
Well, OK, but I think Nate's a little busy, and actually a couple of people asked about this, so I made a thread over on my blog.
tibor75,
"It's a brilliant 4-corners strategy. Dean Smith would be proud."
As a long time Tarheel fan proud
Dean Smith endorsed Obama earlier this month.
Duke Sucks!
Why is it that most democrats, outside of those who read RCP, 538, etc are so pessimistic?
Anytime I tell them there's pretty much no chance McCain wins, it's just "wishful thinking" on my part.
I mean it is a good thing. We fight hard because we're afraid of losing, which makes us win bigger when we win.
----------------------------------
I tell you 2000 and 2004. Until the Dems win they will remain that way.
@jesse radin:
Simple, it's because we have been so utterly and bitterly disappointed in the previous two elections. The days after were probably the saddest two days of my last 10 years. Well maybe 9/11 too.
Jamie:
As a born and bred Virginian -- now I live in Colorado -- please keep up the good work to make Virginia go Obama. My mom is busting her ass in the Quantico area. Her boyfriend and many of our friends too. Not quite SoVA, but not quite NoVA either. I'd love to see Virginia go blue. It'd make me cry, honestly.
Developing Story:
Carl Cameron with the McCain campaign said they believe that McCain has secured the western part of PA and now are going for counties that are ripe for McCain in the eastern part. Cameron also said the McCain campaign internals show PA very close.
----Obama has been campaigning here as well.... I ask you this: Would Obama really be campaigning in a state they are down 10-12 in [supposedly]? It would be like McCain campaigning in Texas!
@kid g
Yes, Mcain said that today.
McCain will never win PA. Isn't this obvious guys? This is his last ditch effort, and it's going to fail. It's over.
Arnold is a RINO. And that's a good thing.
I live in CA. He's married to someone related to the Kennedys
and he's supported global warming legislation. He also tried to get some sort of health care coverage passed (like the swiss have)
He's a liberal if you're in the South.
Michael,
Obama hasn't been here in almost 2 weeks.
Fuck McCain. Urban and suburban PA >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Pennsyltucky by far.
@Kid G
We've considered doing as such with our current sign, but haven't thought of a proper grease/oil. I'm thinking something fluorescent so it shows up clearly when they person is exposed to right light, but something slimy enough that the person will discard the sign and leave behind their fingerprint. But I don't know what we should use.
Also, I'm pro-Obama, but I should make it clear that I consider attacking signs of either candidate is a truly dishonorable act. I'd feel the same way if McCain signs were attacked (if only, I admit, from the mild moral superiority I'd get from it). C'mon, people of either campaign, make sure your friends do not do that. McCain or Obama supporters, we all should be better than such dirty tactics.
Anyway, do you have any ideas on what we should use? Our target vandals are probably not very bright, so even if it is visible they'd probably fall for it and grab it.
One of my friends is a gentleman farmer who indulges in the sport of the posh in NOVA (the socialist rather than the commie part). A Republican all his life.
You could have knocked me over with a feather when he told me he was voting for Obama because of McCain's incompetence, his position on the war, and his dirty campaigning. He told me he hadn't told his neighbors, and that every night as he drove through all those other farms with McCain/Palin signs he would grit his teeth and keep his mouth shut.
I wouldn't call this the reverse Bradley effect, but my friend is not alone.
Sabato said today that Obama would win Virginia. That's all I need in order to believe that the Old Dominion really is going blue. Larry thinks very highly of his reputation as a prognosticator (with reason - he's been very, very good with his predictions of last few cycles). He would not risk damage that reputation, or his ego, by calling his own state 2 weeks early unless he was pretty damn sure he would be proven right.
Go Virginia (both Real Virginia and fake, commie NoVa)!
PA John...
They had rallies in Pittsburgh and Scranton in the past 10 days..
Obama is swamping PA with ad's I believe.... We'll see how this pays off.
As for your Obama yard signs (a key to the election, as Sean and nate will attest), go get some poison ivy (or poison oak) and rub it all over the signs. Then place a small piece of paper on the back that says "do not touch!"
Virginia is the tipping point. # 1 on the list and in the Eastern time zone. When VA goes for Obama we'll know he won. I'd like to see VA in the scenario analysis:
Obama loses VA, wins electoral vote ?
McCain loses VA, wins electoral vote 10%?
Why wait for results from OH/FL? I bet if McCain loses VA he loses the electoral vote about 90% of the time. And since it is more likely that Obama wins VA than OH, and more likely to be called earlier, it would be nice to see the prediction of Nate's model.
Murtha calling W-PA residents racists and rednecks sure doesn't help Obama... Does It??
Obama is swamping PA with ad's I believe.... We'll see how this pays off.
He is indeed. His usually match McCain's 2-1 during commercials.
What my house did with our McCain sign after it was stolen... My Bush sign was stolen in 2004..
Simple Solution: Leave the sign out all day, and bring it inside during the night. You need to have a big set of balls to take a sign in the middle of the day.
BARACK OBAMA has not been in PA in 2 weeks. Yeah, Biden was in Scranton last Sunday with the Clintons, who were also there for the baptism of Hillary's brother's child (she also has family there.
Again, a great diary.
Awesome photos.
Fun comments - well some of them!
Thanks!
Oooh, Christopher Buckley on Daily Show!!!!
Christ, the Youngstown Young Republicans are back. Time to go to bed.
@jamie:
Vaseline seems like the most obvious choice to me, but I haven't used it for this purpose. Maybe vaseline plus something really smelly, like garlic juice. Haha!!
@pa john:
That gaffe was more elaborate than you let on. Hilarious!
Murtha calling W-PA residents racists and rednecks sure doesn't help Obama... Does It??
Well John McCain Agrees!
http://www.theweek.com/article/index/89946/1000/Dont_go_wobbly_Dems
Check this article out. Drudge is angrily reporting Oprah wants to help out Obama for his 30 minute special before the election.
Good Night Matt.
Glad that my opinion bothers you that much that you have to leave over it...
GO YOUNGSTOWN!!!
michael,
"Murtha calling W-PA residents racists and rednecks sure doesn't help Obama... Does It??"
Any people who are concerned about that weren't voting Obama anyway.
PA is a pipe dream and a shot in the dark typical of the McCain campaign the last 2 months.
So Michael, what are your thoughts on Colin Powell? You said he would never do it and were pretty sure. Comments? Original thoughts?
Do we not believe that there aren't any "racists" in PA, Western PA. I suspect that there are some as there are some in each and every state in the union.
I don't think Murtha's statements hurt Obama at all.
I don't think Murtha's statement was a gaffe at all.
Murtha's statement is way to general to have an impact. Impact statements are more narrow in their focus and scope.
@pygmy_owl:
I'll keep trying, sir. No matter what you see on signs or the media, the so-called "Real Virginia" (I should almost thank Nancy Pfotenhauer for such a truly ridiculous quote) is voting for Barack Obama.
I never once said he would never do it.. I figured he'd support Obama, because his interviews over the past 8 months show he is not happy with the GOP.
I said: I didn't expect him to endorse his choice publicly.
Just a fun fact: Obama has at least 47% in every poll in national tracker. In most, he's at or surpassed the 50% mark. His advantage is insurmountable for McCain with less than two weeks and no debates left. It's over.
I just read something that said a gaffe is a gaffe only because it's the truth that people don't wanna hear.
In that context, Murtha totally made a gaffe.
By the way, according to the NYT at least, McCain insiders claim that their candidate is "only seven or eight percentage points behind."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/22/us/politics/22pennsylvania.html?hp
So, not exactly a two point race.
So 1/2 a point a day. For two straight weeks. To possibly be in a dead heat.
Yes, I'm oh-so-threatened.
I said: I didn't expect him to endorse his choice publicly.
Excuse me, but that is what I was asking - you said he would not do that...I was asking for comment.
@JesseRadin: Arnold vetoed AB8 - the comprehensive health care bill.
Arnold's health care "legislation" is laughable. It's actually worse than McCain's if you read it. He's "offering" a 2,000$ tax credit for a family of 4 with an income of up to 74,000$. He also wants to do the same thing McCain wants to do: charge companies more for health care for their employees which would in effect cause companies to drop health care plans, not continue to insure their employers.
Nobody in the leg. took Arnold's bill seriously. I believe it's back on the table.
It's really a shame he vetoed the comprehensive health care bill (Kuehl's bill) last year. But then he had the audacity to say "2008 is the year of health care."
On the climate change issue, I'm hoping to see something good come out of all of his green spinning. So far, he sure doesn't seem to have decent working relationships with anybody on the Air Resources Board, though.
He's also received more corporate donations than any CA gov.
Another fun fact: From 10/20 on, Bush never led in any poll or tracker by more than +5.
Hey, what a coincidence. It's around the same time, and Obama is racking up double and high single digits. It's over.
PA John. He was on Meet the Press. Brokaw would've done everything in his power to get it out of him.
I figured he'd go down the line through domestic and foreign policy and then it would be easily known who he supports.
Do I care, no. Endorsements don't do much to sway poll numbers. It helped Obama let me make that clear. But it was not the final nail in the coffin some said he'd get.
Jamie,
The ridiculous quotes from McCain campign have been endless.
1) Obama has anti-american views and that the media should investigate other dem US congress members for anti american views-Bachman-MN
2) I'm glad to be campaigning in the pro-american part of the country-Palin
3) The real virginia-Pfotenhauer
4)Obama is a communist---Martiinez-FL
5)Obama is a socialist-Palin which she got from Joe the Plumber...that's the dumb leading the dumber!
On signs-
One thing that a lot of people have done w/sign stealing is afterwards putting next to the new signs a homemade sign that says "Everytime you steal my sign I donate $100 to Obama. Thanks for supporting Obama/Biden". And then either donate or treat it like those fake ADT home security window stickers that some use.
Yeah Commie NOVA, and those people are insane going midnight to 3am. I hate getting to the polls so we can open by 6am and have literally gone through most of a twelve pack of mountain dew on election day. They told me not to expect a real lunch break this year :( (and my parents brought me a Gyro last time) and to vote absentee because they couldn't lose any pollworkers to the estimated 1hr lines that we can't cut.
And FFX looks to be voting two parrallell systems this year. Voter choice between the touch-screen WINVOTE machines we've used since 2003 or an optical scan paper ballot. Seems like it will need more people than we normally have to run both.
And I do believe that absentee ballots are allowed for commuters who will be gone for more than 11 hrs from their precincts due to work (including commute), so those 4am commuters might be better being directed there (if I'm right).
Wow.
I apologize for getting back on topic, but that piece was amazing, Sean. Thank you immensely.
The only regret I have of this year is that I could not donate my own time (daytime = stay at home dad, evenings = work) and all I COULD do was send money to BO. I will live vicariously through the experience of these volunteers.
Incidentally, so sad these misguided folks forsook their citizenship in Real Virginia and traded it in for something as shallow as shaping history.
:)
@ winniechili,
interesting def on gaffe. If that's the widely acceptable def of a gaffe, then Murtha certainly made a gaffe.
Qualify that by saying that the people that didn't want to hear it are the very people that probably fall in that category.
@Kid G:
Heck, we have that. I'll go out and coat it tomorrow morning, just to be sure.
@Buckeye:
I cant speak of others but I am TERRIFIED of losing... if we do, my future and the nation's future hangs in the balance. I wont be the man who quits campaigning because "victory is assured". I will do whatever it takes to get Obama every single vote, and if that's pointless, every landslide vote will end up inspiring more confidence in the american people. I wasn't able to vote at the time, but I still thought 2004 was a sure thing and didn't try to get others to vote. I wont be caught as that fool again.
By the way, according to the NYT at least, McCain insiders claim that their candidate is "only seven or eight percentage points behind."
Thanks Love Child.
Blogger Vinny said...
Just a fun fact: Obama has at least 47% in every poll in national tracker. In most, he's at or surpassed the 50% mark. His advantage is insurmountable for McCain with less than two weeks and no debates left. It's over.
Not to be a spoil sport, but you know why it's not over? Because unless we CRUSH the Republicans on election day, Obama won't have a strong enough mandate to push his agenda through congress. I am as hopeful of getting at least 58 seats in the senate as I am of Obama winning the election by 1 EV.
you know the fact that michael is here peddling the PA talking points tells us everything we need to know. McCain wants to make the narrative all about PA. DO NOT fall for it
one$earned, here is the actual statement:
There, particularly in the western part of the state, you have those voters Jack Murtha called "racist" and "elderly" (a gaffe is often a gaffe because it suggests an uncomfortable or taboo truth)
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/panic-room-whats-mccains-pennsylvania-gambit
"Do I care, no. Endorsements don't do much to sway poll numbers."
Well, it's looking like something is happening with polls, and I do think that endorsement matters to moderate voters.
@jamie:
Don't forget the garlic juice! Can you imagine the look on their faces when they realize their car is getting stunk up permanently??? Priceless, and I guarantee they won't be coming back for another round.
I was born and raised in Southeastern PA.
My family still lives there.
It will be a closer rate than many realize. I have no doubt that a lot of Pennsyltucky denizens who voted for Kerry will desert Obama. Also, there are pockets of the Philly area that will vote against Obama for obvious reasons.
However, the Palin selection went over like a lead balloon here in the Philly region. I think women voters will go for Obama in droves.
My father lives in affluent Chester County. I work in Delaware County. You almost never see a Democrat sign around here. No more.
Plus, Rendell - though he backed Clinton - will want to deliver the state. He is a very popular governor. He brings a lot of clout, especially in the Philly area.
Michael - I think you are getting cause and effect backward there. He didn't endorse because he was one Meet the Press.
He was on Meet the Press because he was going to endorse. If he wasn't going to endorse Meet the Press would have likely booked someone more topical to the election.
@just john:
You know you can make phone calls for the campaign from home, right? We in NJ have been calling FL during the daytime. Just check out neighbor-to-neighbor on the campaign website.
also--let us not forget this is the same mciahel producing the earth shatering 'study' about how all pollsters are oversampling democrats all over. Too bad 3 or 4 republicans pollsters came out today saying the exact opposite.
@lat
I agree. I do have a "home field advantage" living here, and I know what's happening on the ground. No worries.
By the way McCain's crowds were SMALL today.. around 500 in Bucks County.
"One of my dirty little secrets is that I absolutely love drag shows."
I am betting that there will be thousand of people dressed as Sarah Palin in the Holloween Parade in Greenwich Village this year.
If Sarah Palin is Bible Spice does that make John McCain Old Spice?
Has anyone else been noticing an inverse effect on Palin's campaigning in state polling?
It seems that wherever she goes, polling goes up for Obama by about three points.
I'd like to see some more reliable polling in NV and NM now that she just went there.
2kittles93...
said, t will be a closer rate than many realize. I have no doubt that a lot of Pennsyltucky denizens who voted for Kerry will desert Obama. Also, there are pockets of the Philly area that will vote against Obama for obvious reasons.
Couple of things, one, in your opinion, will the Obama win?
Second, what are the, 'obvious reasons' you refer to in your post?
pa john--good to hear. i ahve firends who volunteer there adn they say even with all these eventualities included the state belongs to Obama. I trust them and you far more than Michael and his talking points. The fact that so many here fall for it is kind of dispiriting.
todd--can we call that the Palin reverse bounce?
Where do you work at in Delaware county? That's where I lived until recently.
@todd dugdale:
Interesting, I will keep a closer eye on this in the coming days.
The Rendell factor shouldn't be underestimated.
I don't mean anything illegal or fraudulent. It's just for the former DNC Chairman, now Governor of a normally Dem state not to have his state win if Obama wins anyway would be the biggest embarassment of his political life.
And with no Senate race or other significant statewide races as far as I am aware, he can really really push the whole organization and call in whatever favors he needs to his lieutenants for them to go out acress the state and say, hey, do this for me, for our community, our local leader, whatever.
The key to the polls is that Obama, whatever the lead, is usually stead at or about 50%. As with other states, the actual result might be actually a couple points better (organization, no cell phones, enthusiasm et al). If there is supposedly resistance to Obama, chances it would be among those claiming to be undecided who actually are for McCain.
I do think it could be 51-48 or something like that, but I doubt this state slips away.
The good thing about PA is that it has it's own tracker. If Obama starts to falter, we'll know.
vinny,
I'm a little worried because Morning Call has trended down the last couple days in PA, even though its still at 10 pts.
McCain was here in Western PA today...crowd of about 6000, got lots of coverage on local tv
Palin in the area on Thursday/
They don't come near the city though..just out in the burbs or country
Rendell has more clout in the eastern part of the state, we have a young mayor in Pittsburgh and young county executive..both dems supporting Obama.
Murtha is a little out of touch, but not totally off the mark about racial identity challenges here. Having said that, he seems to be struggling a little himself these days. If I had to make a guess, he's beginning to see that his grasp on PA polital power in Congress is waning.
Oh, and when do we get another road to 270? Only 14 days and I believe more than 14 states. I also suspect that VA will find a way to be near the top on many Dem and many R indicators in the stats.
the morning tracker was a bit down last week then up yesterday than down again today but Obama up always by 10-12. NO trend down. Can we please stop stop falling for this ruse? We have to work hard but this is just a gambit the only thing McCain has left.
one$earned,
Yes, I believe Obama will win. I just think it will be by two or three points.
My judgement is likely clouded by the fact that I work and deal with a very conservative crowd. Of course, these same people voted for Bush in 2004, and Kerry still won by a decent margin.
The 'obvious reason' is pretty obvious. However, I think Biden has helped Obama solidify some of that support.
I work in Chadds Ford by the way.
Rendell is absolutely huge. I suspect Obama will op into the Philly area in one of the last few days of the campaign with Rendell in tow. That should put the hammer down.
@Ben,
What the Morning Call trends down to 5 points, then you should start worrying.
Anything over a 10% lead is probably flirting with statistical noise.
I'm a little worried because Morning Call has trended down the last couple days in PA, even though its still at 10 pts.
The good thing is Obama's support is holding at 52-53% in the poll.
Mike,
It's not that I disagree, but Obama was up 16 five days ago. I just hope when I wake up tomorrow, it shows a 10+ lead.
The tracking poll of PA sort of proves my point. Obama today is at 52%. His high in the poll is 53%. The only change in the poll is that McCain has gone from 37 to 42 - gaining 5 points, but almost all from undecided.
So the margin going down is not really a big deal.
IF Obama goes down to 49% or so with under 5% undecided, then maybe start to worry. But don't worry when he is at 52% with 6% undecided.
Looks like Keith Knight is a 538.com fan.
My son, Matt, is an organizer in the Fishtown area of Philadelphia. He's been crashing for a couple of hours a night on the office couch and fell off the other night, leaving a deep gash on his nose. He told me it would 'take too much time' to get it stitched up, and he's pressing on, albeit with a bloodied face. Like so many other young organizers in Obama's Army, he's been at this all year, state after state, waging war for *every* vote. These young people are our patriots, our happy warriors, our future.
Besides the Rendell factor, Democrats have a 1.17M registration edge statewide (compared to just +638K in 2004.)
And the Obama ground game.
I really have no idea why anyone thinks attacking PA is a better plan for McCain than putting up a serious fight in CO+VA.
Hell, at least he's actually HAD A LEAD in both those states.
hey Ak_Space_Man,
you ain't gonna get flamed here. some of us democrats shoot guns and hunt too. the repubs just portray us otherwise. it's always all bs from them.
BRAVO, Sean Quinn !!! I hope you'll expand all of these chapters with more organizers' stories and personal anecdotes in your "On the Road" book.
Did you ever tell us what was so worse than expected about Tennessee?
erik @9:51
Dude, you seem too intelligent about all this stuff but ya gotta have a different screen color! I tried to read your blog but the color background is way too distracting. Let us know if you change it and I'll go back and read it.
If Obama listens to Rendell then he deserves to lose PA and the election.
Here are the Secretary of States in, I think, the only states still in contentions by both campaigns:
Republican Controlled
1. Colorado: Mike Coffman (R) (Gov-R)
2. Florida: Kurt Browning (R) (Gov-R)
3. Georgia: Karen Handel (R) (Gov-R)
4. Indiana: Todd Rokita (R) (Gov-R)
5. Montana: Bradley Johnson (R) (Gov-D)
6. North Dakota: Al Jaeger (R) (Gov-R)
7. West Virginia: Betty Ireland (R) (Gov-D)
TOTAL EV VOTES: 73
Democratic Controlled:
1. Missouri: Robin Carnahan (D) (Gov-R)
2. Nevada: Ross Miller (D) (Gov-R)
3. New Hampshire: Bill Gardner (Gov-D)
4. New Mexico: Mary Herrera (D) (Gov-D)
5. North Carolina: Elaine Marshal (D) (Gov-D)
6. Ohio: Jennifer Brunner (D) (Gov-D)
7. Pennsylvania: Pedro A. Cortes (D) (Gov-D)
8. Virginia: Katherine Hanley (D) (Gov-D)
TOTAL EV VOtes: 94
If Obama listens to Rendell then he deserves to lose PA and the election.
well, he's never lost an election in Philly or the State...
Apparently the McCain/Palin joint tour is heading to Iowa - again - in a few days.
Some theories:
1) They are trying to headfake Obama into coming back as well and spend less time in the red states
2) They are responding to an Obama headfake (he cancelled supposed stops there on Thursday when he decided to go to Hawaii - BUT were these stops only announced when they were cancelled to headfake McCain, but never actually planned?)
3) Both campaigns do show the state closer.
I am intrigued by #2 - they made a big point of cancelling the Iowa and Wisconsin stops when the interruption was announced, but how convenient these were two states where we would have been surprised to see him go at this point.
@sfergus483:
You forgot #4:
They're batshit crazy.
OK for Michael (who is a hardcore McCain supporter and trying to spread disinformation about PA) and to other concerned, here is the PA Morning Call Report for the last 3 weeks.
And no, Obama HAS NOT been trending down.
Check it out for yourself.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/MC_Pennsylvania_102108.htm
Hahaha "batshit crazy" is maybe my favorite term ever.
I feel like your post overlooked a crucial consideration--the "field office" located at 1262 New Hampshire Ave NW. I hear the girls manning the office are truly proactive in their agenda.
Keep on truckin Sean and Brett!
I feel like your post overlooked a crucial consideration--the "field office" located at 1262 New Hampshire Ave NW. I hear the girls manning the office are truly proactive in their agenda.
Keep on truckin Sean and Brett!
Jennifer Brunner is receiving death threats. :( Plus attempts at hacking their system.
What we know is our IT department detected a situation with our Web site where there was somehow suspicious activity where someone could have gotten into our site and tried to move things around," a spokesman told The Cleveland Plain Dealer Monday afternoon.
The office's statement noted that "this is not the first instance of direct assault on the operations of the Secretary of State's office."
The office has been barraged with phone calls and e-mails "with menacing messages and even threats of harm or death," according to the statement.
Sorry if this is old news, but I just learned about it on wired.
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/10/ohio-secretary.html
Thanks 2much2lose. I like being outside for any reason, and I wish hunters and environmentalists would get together (I consider myself both). Of course, they should be dems! After all, it's the habitat that matters. Wild places are good for everyone.
Bige Ten Battleground Polls are out Thursday.
Last time they had PA basically tied.
Here is a link to that poll and the internals
Keep in mind when the new one is released they had party ID's for dem's and rep's even for this last one.
And now.........
Sleep.
1. Colorado: Mike Coffman (R) (Gov-R)
Governor Bill Ritter is a Democrat.
lat wrote:
We have to work hard but this is just a gambit the only thing McCain has left.
Time is running out for McCain, so any movement in the polls, however slight, will continue to be hailed as the start of a tsunami.
I am also somewhat irritated by the helpless hand-wringing displayed by a few Obama supporters here. Their motives are likely honest (i.e not "concern trolling"), but there is just entirely too much fatalism and an active desire to seek out and embrace doom for my tastes.
This is McCain's last rhetorical shot. There may be a big spending blitz in the last few days, but things are mostly written in concrete. So far the public isn't buying what McCain is pushing, and there is still enough time for him (or Palin) to make a horrendous gaffe. I still think McCain will take a swing at a reporter before this thing is over, for example.
So you are right to counsel constructive and cautious optimism, IMHO.
todd, after the last two elections it is not surprising that some of us are concerned. Frankly, I find it also strange that a lot of people are too cocky. I will only believe the poll on November 4th. By the way, I am a scientist and I am trained always to ask questions and I do not take things for granted and believe everything just because it is on paper. And some of my experiments turn out differently than the statistics suggested. That being said, I think that Obama's superior ground game will win it, but that will only hold if not 50% of voters think they don't have to show up because it is in the bag.
@Wenatchee1:
God bless your son, and all other young people making such a commitment to our nation. Such people are indeed patriots in the truest sense and national heroes. I only wish all people of our generation could be bothered to be so involved with politics.
http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=QnE-YJ---GI
Marc Ambinder, in a rare late evening post (which means he's hearing a lot of chatter) says what he is hearing from RNC and other GOP sources is absolute disgust over the $150,000 Palin fashion budget - with the hint that this could cause an early start to the proverbial night of the long knives within the campaign.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
This may be one way Dems still aren't as good as the GOP - hard the situation been reversed, and Michelle Obama and Jill Biden had spent this money right during an economic downturn - it would be the big story of the week.
MICHAEL has been on here for days trying to spin silk out of the old sow's ear of bad news for the GOPers
Zogby IA polls are basically worthless - but yet even ol' John still admits that the results project an EV victory for Obama
"Zogby Battleground Poll: McCain Regains Indiana; Obama Still Surpasses Electoral Threshold With 273..."
sfergus,
No joke. Republicans can really stay on message and drive a story to the top of the media and keep it there with Drudge and talk radio and Fox. This story is no different than the John Edwards haircut story which dominated news for about a week and really hurt his campaign. I doubt we'll hear much more about Palin's extravagant fashion budget in the traditional media however.
new Zogby: Obama 51.6%, McCain 42.0% O +9.4
No disrespect, but 51.6 - 42.0 = 9.6
A few more good days and the GOP rats will be deserting the sinking ship. My sense is that they are just barely holding onto hope of a miraculous comeback currently. Hopefully, Zogby is a precursor of good polling news today and maybe Palin's Neiman Marcus shopping spree will be the news of the day.
Thing is, there's almost nothing fathomable that could change the course of this election. People are voting. People have voted. Every day that tracks past the opening of the polls is a day on which that segment of the voting population has voted according to the polling. True, perhaps the most enthusiastic will get out the vote sooner. It's reasonable to believe that. But at the same time, it's almost just as reasonable to believe that the senior citizen community will get out the vote sooner (with no work to cancel); and that the youth vote will get out sooner. Depending on how those polls work out, it's pretty clear that Obama's lead becomes increasingly devastating to McCain.
Yummy!
You know something? When the history of the 2008 election is written, this site will be in it.
When the books are written telling of when and how people finally began to understand the rich ways the web can be used as a media platform, this site will be in that, too.
Bravo.
I volunteer in the Alexandria Office .. they run a tight ship there as well. I volunteered for Kerry .. there is no comparison with the Obama Campaign ... I run a professional, IT business .. this cat (Obama) and is organization is the real deal.
Hey, Sean,
Glad you made it to "my" office; sorry I wasn't there at the time! As a precinct leader, I actually spend almost all my time further out in the decentralized structure. Anyway, wonderful description of our incredible operation, thanks.
RedHawksO4 said...
Wow, this is hardcore, but inspirational. I've volunteered at several offices, but haven't seen anything this intense. This is great news for Virginia, indeed. I wonder what these folks will do after the election? It will probably be very tough to move on with a normal life. Sure, it will be tough for all of us, but man, every waking moment of these people's lives is Obama campaign.
Hopefully a lot of them will stay involved. (That's what I did after the Dean campaign.) Since our elections for governor and state legislature are in off years, we have elections every year in Virginia, and we can use all the help we can get.
Sean and Brett, thank you so much for your series. It's so beautiful, so inspiring. It really is a gift to everyone out there on the ground. I love you guys for telling the amazing story!
My shop has been helping out with extra meeting space her in southern Virginia as well. We have to keep it going.
Shameless plug: I wrote an article for the Huffington Post on the People's Republic of Northern Virginia and the election. Virginia is becoming the new Illinois.
Good job, Sean. I knew there was a reason I love NYC, besides the shopping the Time's Square!
Long time lurker and just wanted to say that ALL my music friends in the San Francisco Bay Area are really grateful for this site. I am barely able to contain my growing excitement about the possible transformation of the country - I have been so crushed ever since 1968. I really hope we can keep it up after the election to give the new administration the balls to do the right things..I would hate to see a repeat of the early Clinton administration - having to compromise with blue dogs and right wing freaks in Congress. THIS TIME we can really take it back...and KEEP it. Thanks to you all!
The Falls Church office ROCKS! I stopped by for yard signs, and they offered me a bumper sticker. I said not on my car, but you got any car magnets? No, they replied, but you could order them online.
Two weeks later they sent me a car magnet in the mail. Seriously, they got game.
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