10.21.2008

On the Road: Northern Virginia

“The only thing to do was go. Dean leaped up and said we were ready to go back to Virginia. He took a shower, I cooked up a big platter of rice with all that was left in the house, Marylou sewed his socks, and we were ready to go.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

Leans Left - BrettMarty.com


Ah, "Communist Country."

Communist Country, which includes Falls Church, Virginia, taught us about Hub Directors. Two aspiring Leninists, Kate Stanton and Kim Peyser, and one longtime Trotskyite, Ed Gerwin, ranted to us about Che Guevara and talked about how the Obama campaign is running its GOTV operations here in northern Virginia.

What's a Hub Director? In essence, Hub Directors are full-time volunteers who manage the inflow and outflow of volunteers for get-out-the-vote (GOTV) canvassing efforts. Because there are such an enormous number of volunteers for Barack Obama's GOTV efforts in NoVa, the regular field offices simply cannot physically accommodate all the people. (Obama's DC suburbs operation is not alone in this happy logistical challenge.) As GOTV kicks in, separate physical staging locations have mushroomed all over the state and country. These are offices dedicated entirely to GOTV, and in turn many have their own satellite locations.

Stanton, a recent University of Michigan grad, became a full time unpaid volunteer shortly after she showed up at the office in late August. She'd come to volunteer for a phonebank, because she'd heard that was something she could do to help. Before she knew it, an organizer recruited her to sign on for much greater responsibility than she'd anticipated. "I guess I looked like I had a lot of free time," she joked. "You seem like a reasonably intelligent person. Here, go do this." Now she works from 9 am to at least 12:30 or 1 am every single day.

While we were there, a volunteer informed the Hub team, "Jackie has no canvassers." Jackie, apparently, was one of the canvassing coordinators out at a staging location. Since one of the canvassing coordinators out in the field didn't have anyone at that moment, Stanton and the team shifted on the fly. The team had a priority alert, and moved swiftly to redirect volunteers toward the staging location running on empty.

Peyser, who'd worked for the Democratic National Convention in Denver, was used to working with scheduling events. Like the other Hub Directors, she worked full-time volunteer hours. Asked how she had time to do this, she said she had an understanding father who happened to be a lobbyist, could not donate to the Obama campaign for that reason, and his contribution was subsidizing her living expenses while she worked. (If Obama wins, he may be open to charges of the unique but still suspicious lobbyist-daughter-volunteer-influence-peddling.)

She told us about one of the wall lists that adorn every Obama office -- this one had positions like "Data Trainer," "Phonebank Captain," "Master Trainer," and so forth, with names, numbers and shift times filling the wall sheets. As Peyser managed "runners," those volunteers responsible for going back and forth from the Hub Director team to the GOTV staging locations with information, literature refills, and any other items needing to be shuttled, she told us about the GOTV shift plans.

On Election Day, beginning at midnight until 3 am, Obama canvassers will quietly drop literature at the houses of sporadic voters who commute long distances beginning as early as 4 am. A small reminder piece of literature about Election Day needs to hit those voters at a precisely-timed moment: before they begin their long workdays. Another canvassing shift goes from 5-8 am, another no-knocking lit drop, but timed to voters who would be ideally caught at their cars and met with a smile and a reminder about which voting location is his or hers.

Remember, these are highly targeted GOTV-universe voters, ones that have been identified through the massive voter contact effort and/or profiled with Catalist, the Obama team's advanced datamining tool, so these are voters the campaign thinks will vote their way, provided they go vote. Actual knocking on doors will likely begin at 10 am on Election Day. Peyser said that the average canvasser will do a three-hour canvassing shift and be given turf with 30-40 doors, depending on the compactness of the turf. High-density turf will likely have more doors. Turf with more doors will be given to the better, more efficient longtime canvass volunteers.



Ed Gerwin, who recently retired from the law firm where he was a partner, had been donating extensive volunteer time to the Obama campaign since the primary season. Falls Church was his 13th office, and he'd worked in South Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota. He likened his role to that of a bartender after a long day's canvass. Other volunteers would return, talk about a tough day out at the doors, and he'd listen to the telling before reinforcing the value of each door knocked and each data point collected.

Noting that he and one of the organizers had helped identify and rent the Falls Church office, which used to be a beauty salon, Gerwin talked about "the luxury of space." With so many people trying to help out -- 660 people attended just this one office opening -- having workspace to accomplish critical organizing tasks made all the difference.

Stationed tight at the front of the entrance, Gerwin was often the first line of attack in fielding yard sign complaints. He ruefully recalled one woman telling him, "you guys are incompetent," in what surely is as ironic a statement as has been made in this campaign season.

Adjacent to the Hub Director space is an entire room dedicated solely to walk packet assembly line operations. Priscilla Mendenhall, another full-time volunteer who'd started a walk packet assembly operation at the Fairfax office and moved up to create one in Falls Church, demonstrated her organization. She manages approximately 20 regular volunteers and a myriad of others who assemble 700 walk packets a week. Some come from Maryland, DC, and some are local, people who aren't as comfortable going to the doors but who want to work and help.

Up until GOTV, Mendenhall said, she had standing orders from field organizers what turf they wanted cut and packaged, and so she'd just run the orders. One challenge is that the turf organized by the Falls Church office comprised two separate Congressional districts, so separating literature for downballot candidates added an extra wrinkle that Mendenhall handled adroitly. Suggested that the language she used in describing her operation sounded like that of a regular business (running orders, etc.), she noted that as someone used to running an interpreter service in the District she found thinking of her operation as a business a natural way to run things.

Still, Mendenhall, who also has done much community organizing for multicultural populations seeking affordable access to healthcare, told us the work didn't come without sacrifice. Like the other full time volunteers, this is all she does. "I don't cook, I haven't gone grocery shopping in weeks, and I mostly go home, take a hot bath, sleep, and come right back."

By our observation, the Falls Church, Virginia Obama office is as impressive an operation as we have seen in the dozens and dozens of offices we've seen across the nation. In one of Al Giordano's reports from the field in North Carolina, he included a note that one of that state's RFDs (regional field directors) had sent her organizers:
Stay calm - and BE RELENTLESS today. Get everyone motivated, educated, and into the field as quickly and as often as possible...

GET THEM COMFORTABLE WITH A BREAK-NECK PACE. They need to be the cool heads by the time GOTV rolls around...

Report your numbers like clock-work. Call me if you need me. Don't stop until your last shift is confirmed for Sunday...

Barack really is expecting a lot out us - and there isn't much else for him to do. He has placed this election in our hands at this point. It's up to us now. We may never again have our hands on history quite like this again for as long as we live. That makes each hour so so precious. We can slack off, sleep in, and make excuses for the rest of our lives. But today - and for the next 3 weeks... whether we knew what we were getting into or not... we have ended up with people's lives, livelihoods, and dreams for their children - all dependent on our performance day in and day out. This is our one chance at history... our one chance at perfection. Our one chance to live forever. So today - breathe this in... realize that your grandkids will be reading about you... realize that you will miss this feeling very very soon... and win every single hour.

Proud of you in advance for a big day...
"Win every single hour."

Nothing better summarizes the feeling we got in the Falls Church, Virginia office of Senator Barack Obama's Campaign for Change.

351 comments

Real Joe said...

wow

Real Joe said...

mysticlaker said...
US: Obama 50, McCain 42
Ipsos/McClatchy national
10/16-20/08; 773 LV, 3.5%

http://www.kansascity.com/445/story/851177.html


HOT Damn.

Peter Welch said...

I love these ground game pieces. We (liberal democrats in the UK) have a lot to learn from the Obama campaign. I have put together a piece on how Obama is using volunteers - anyone feel like sharing some experience, just leave a comment


Here's the post!

Nicholas Warino said...

Here's the latest update on the national polls from the last 2 days. We're still awaiting the NBC poll, which has been teased as very strong Obama.

Pew: Obama 53, McCain 39 (+14)
Gallup: Obama 52, McCain 42 (+10)
ABC: Obama 53, McCain 44 (+9)
Ipsos: Obama 50, McCain 42 (+8)
Zogby: Obama 50, McCain 42 (+8)
R2000: Obama 50, McCain 42 (+8)
TIPP: Obama 47, McCain 41 (+6)
Hotline: Obama 47, McCain 41 (+6)
Democracy Corps: Obama 49, McCain 44 (+5)
ARG: Obama 49 McCain 45 (+4)
Rasmussen: Obama 50, McCain 46 (+4)
Battleground: Obama 48, McCain 47 (+1)

Mean: Obama 49.8, McCain 42.9 (Obama +6.9)
Median: Obama 50.0, McCain 42.0 (Obama +8.0)

If there was tightening over the last week, it appears it is opening up again. Or maybe the daily trackers are just on average showing a closer race.

Charles Crook said...

The reader comments in the kc star are consistently the most hateful of all the 20+ online papers I read.

LAT said...

great post thanks so much Sean.

Ak_Space_Man said...

Hey John,

I don't post much here, but I read often. Before I get flamed, I have 2 cats and a dog that I love, and I will vote for Obama. However, I do live in Alaska and kill a moose almost every year. Mooseburgers are great. I've raised my children on moose... no beef here. It's lean and healthy. When you cook it on the grill, it's the same size as when you started -- almost no fat. So, there you go.

Michael said...

Just posting these for discussion points:

Zogby Interactive - Battleground Polls.

Take with a grain of salt.

Indiana (11)
McCain-Palin
52.8%
Obama-Biden
42.3%

New Mexico (5)
Obama-Biden
46.1%
McCain-Palin
45.5%

Virginia (13)
Obama-Biden
49.7%
McCain-Palin
46.1%

Ohio (20)
McCain-Palin
49.3%
Obama-Biden
46.5%

Colorado (9)
Obama-Biden
48.2%
McCain-Palin
47.9%

Florida (27)
Obama-Biden
48.8%
McCain-Palin
45.2%

Missouri (11)
McCain-Palin
48.3%
Obama-Biden
48.0%

North Carolina (15)
Obama-Biden
49.6%
McCain-Palin
46.5%

New Hampshire (4)
Obama-Biden
46.5%
McCain-Palin
46.2%

Nevada (5)
McCain-Palin
51.5%
Obama-Biden
44.0%

LINK: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1603

Michael said...

NATE... Why were you high on Countdown!! HAHAHAHA

R-Boy said...

As a resident of Alexandria, I can attest the the Obama GOTV effort has great depth and breadth.

While I came off the fence to vote for him recently, I have been very amazed at just how many door knockers and vote drive people they have had

LAT said...

anyone banking on zogby interactive to prove that McCain will win the election really needs to get a clue. or take a double dose of reality.

Michael said...

LAT... I think ZOGBY is bad state by state.. BUT All those numbers seem legit w/ the exception of two locks for Obama: NH-NM.

judas_priest said...

@michael:

If I took Zogby interactive with as many grains of salt as it needs, my blood pressure would go through the roof. ;-)

sniperct said...

That's an internet poll, and iI really doubt NV is leaning that far right.

shadowguidex said...

Virginia. Mmmm.

Michael Tiemann said...

Sounds a lot like the ground game here in North Carolina. We went to the James Taylor concert and the number of Obama volunteers making it happen was just phenomenal. They seemed every bit as disciplined as the dozen EMS doctors and the two dozen security officers. In fact, because of their great organization, there didn't seem to be much need for security--a welcome change compared to many over-policed public events.

newsfromOH said...

KO story on GOP voter fraud, including mug shots of offenders, with clear, recent links to McCain.

Could be the funniest thing yet (other than the RNC having to replace the Palins' flannel with elitist clothes to pander to the flannel crowd . . .)

borderpeak said...

Here is a true story I learned last night. A story of good people and sick people. For the weekend, my son, a handsome bachelor from Laguna Beach, (well okay, he has always been said to be my son, miracles can happen) and a friend went to Las Vegas to party the night away and canvas the day away on behalf of Barack Obama’s well know campaign for change to sanity and compassion.

After a big night of dancing, etc, they arrived at their assigned Obama office in Henderson, Nevada about 9am and found out the following things. The organizers and key volunteers had worked until 4am Saturday morning preparing the Canvas packages for the over 50 volunteers they expected. The office was in a strip mall next to a gun shop. No surprise, the gun shop windows were plastered with Mc Cain / Palin signs, (bill of rights, free speech in action), no problem. When they arrived more than 50 volunteers were in the parking lot waiting to get in. Sometime between 4 and 7 that morning some person or persons had put super glue in the locks of the Obama office with enough skill to make them completely unworkable. A locksmith was called, he said he would come but never did. When it was realized that the first locksmith was not coming, a second locksmith was called. After a while the second locksmith did come and everyone still there was able to get in and get their materials. Other volunteers had already left for other Obama offices. During the delay, people from the gun shop stood outside of the shop wearing guns, (bill of right again in action) jeering and otherwise being unsavory. Two Americas side by side. Two weeks from today, thanks volunteers, change is going to come. Keep working, give money, be part of profound history and get ready to party!

LAT said...

sorry Michale but these numbers on Zogby do not look legit at all McCain up by 10 in Indiana? Not from everything we have heard this week. Tied in NH? Also not really. Barely ahead in VA? Also dubious. I won't go on, because the numebrs are worthless and would be if they had Obama ahead in Arizona and Arkansas.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Borderpeak: you are expecting us to accept that your son is a "handsome bachelor".

nirad said...

IMHO, the Powell endorsement and Nacy Pfoutenhauer have sealed VA for Obama. You can't dismiss the most populous area of the state. That's moronic.

JRoyale said...

If Obama manages the executive branch like he runs his campaign, we're going to be a very lucky country.

Valpey said...

Sean,

These On The Road pieces just keep getting better and better. Thank you so much for your perspective.

Cheers!

newsfromOH said...

Great piece, Sean.

And the McCain campaign there? eh, never mind

Bea said...

As a Hub Director in a nother part of Northern Virginia, nice piece.

Rupert Doobe said...

I am a first time poster and this is a touch off topic but the comments about real Virginia and recent comments about West Virginia have spurred me to write. On my mother's side I come from a family that has been if WV since before there was a WV. On my fathers side a man married a Catholic and was chased out of Virginia long ago and moved to WV in the mid-1800's. I myself grew up in WV in a family eligible for food stamps although we did not take them. So I fit what people like McCain's campaign call the "real Virginia."
I have not been excited about one of the two major party candidates since the days of George McGovern when I was thirteen. I am excited today and there are tears in my eyes. Maybe finally something good is going to happen out in US presidential politics. If Obama is elected I will cry for joy, I will cry like I haven't since I ruptured a disk in my back, although as you may know that was not for joy. I will jump up and down and yell like it was a football game. How strange.
But I think about things and this change that seems to be coming makes me so happy. Maybe we really are going somewhere good. That would be so great and I could die happy.
Thanks Nate for your work. It has been quite a boost to me since I started viewing your site a couple of weeks ago. I like knowing what is going on.

Jesse Radin said...

Zogby is always way off.

He once claimed Obama had a 3 point lead in Arizona this summer, and McCain a 3 point lead in Texas

Both states had like 7% Barr.

I think he does internet polling, and the libertarian party spams him or something.

He's always way off from everyone else. And he was the one who called it for Kerry in 2004.

borderpeak said...

As I say, thats the story and everyone has always stuck to it. He also very smart and was a wicked left handed pitcher so you know, but I raised him so yes!

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Everything I hear about the ground game has been positive. I was extremely impressed with the organization in PA when I went last weekend. You just get a sense the dedication comes from the heart.

Mikeybackwards said...

What I see is just counting states where Nate projects Obama to win 90% of the time or higher, we get to 277.

YEAAAAA!!!!!

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

Don't miss the Old Town Alexandria office on King Street. It's a smaller office but it's in a great part of town with good restaurants and bars all up and down the street. If you're there in the evening, go to Gasby's Tavern where George Washington used to eat. They've got great glazed duck...cheers.

Matt W said...

Sean,
Inspirational stuff!

Have you just given up altogether with the McCain side? I lament not getting at least an idea of the contrast at each site. Still, Great stuff!

Darío said...

Remember that Zogby poll in Arizona with Obama leaning.
It´s a joke.
The results in Nevada, NH, NM and Colorado are a joke.

liforcerenewal said...

BREAKING NEWS!!! New PPP poll shows 53% of all male McCain supporters have little peckers
43% are racially biased, with a whopping 4% filthy f-ing rich! (hee-hee)
Don't worry, neo-cons, it's not too late to prove that You're not totally dickless~you can still vote for Bob Barr!!!!!!!!!!!!

LAT said...

this is off topic so apologies but here is that sotry about Palin and her wardrobe. Does this finally make her Bible Spice?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081022/pl_politico/14805;_ylt=AhvW1sR7YJsLfm7Wx5NHNbyyFz4D

Real Joe said...



Politico: RNC may have spent $150K on Palin fashion

mc9cain said...

Nate,
I've been reading a lot of comments on the previous thread about you rolling a fat one before your KO appearance. We all know that couldn't be true because, like all sensible Chicagoans with Midwestern values, you're waiting to do that before you hit Grant Park the evening of Nov 4.

Real Joe said...



AP: Palin charged Alaska for her kids' travel

Matt W said...

NBC/WSJ numbers are out, for some time now...

O 52 , M 42
(O +10)

W/ 3rd party

O 50 , M 39 , Barr 2 , Nader 3
(O +11)

RedHawksO4 said...

Wow, this is hardcore, but inspirational. I've volunteered at several offices, but haven't seen anything this intense. This is great news for Virginia, indeed. I wonder what these folks will do after the election? It will probably be very tough to move on with a normal life. Sure, it will be tough for all of us, but man, every waking moment of these people's lives is Obama campaign.

The End of the American Honeymoon

Real Joe said...



McCain: PA the most "God-loving," "patriotic" part of USA

Eric said...

Anyone know anything about California? This is what I know. There are a lot more Dems than Pubs in California. 3 polls in October there are O+16, O+16, O+24 10 polls from 7 organizations in the last 90 days all have Obama up 9 or more.

All of that being said:

#1 Reagan won California twice
#2 Schwarzenegger won
#3 McCain did well in the primary there
#4 Clinton beat Obama
#5 This Gay Marriage #8 thing is on the ballot and will drive Conservativesto the polls that would have otherwise stayed home
#6 Those 55 electoral votes might be McCain's only hope
#7 I heard something about Republicans commiting voter registration fraud in wild numbers there


Is it remotely possible that Mccain could win california or is that a silly concern? I'll be Rachel Maddow for this purpose. Talk me down.

Real Joe said...

McCain trying to turn PA red

LOL

Matt W said...

Sean,
Anybody comment re: "fake VA" or Commie VA?

Eric said...

Real Joe said...


Politico: RNC may have spent $150K on Palin fashion

I knew they didn't have chic red leather jackets in Alaska! JK

Real Joe said...

eric said...

Is it remotely possible that Mccain could win california or is that a silly concern?


Eric

what are you smoking ?

hahahahahah

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Real Joe were you part of that PPP pole? Because I heard you were hung like a donkey and would have lowered that 53%.

shadowguidex said...

"Is it remotely possible that Mccain could win california or is that a silly concern? I'll be Rachel Maddow for this purpose. Talk me down."

Uh. No.

Matt W said...

eric,
You are being very silly re CA. Very silly indeed.

Real Joe said...

nam vet joe from jersey said...
Real Joe were you part of that PPP pole? Because I heard you were hung like a donkey and would have lowered that 53%.


WHHHAT ?

newsfromOH said...

Palin's ignorance of the Constitution makes me gasp, then hyperventilate. Only this site and the Daily Show stop it from projectile vomiting . . .

KO just ran several videos of Palin, ALL of which, completely and totally distort the Constitutional role of VP

I think the memo to the volunteers needs to go out via email to all on Obama's list

We simply can't afford to have this election be even close

LAT said...

guys really you must check out that link I have there for the yahoo story from Politico on the Palin RNC shopping spree of 150K. Over 75K for one shopping spree in MN? I like to shop and love clothes but that is unbelievable.
Just wow.

Matthew said...

One gets the impression that books will be written on the Obama GOTV.

Eric said...

Matt W said...
eric,
You are being very silly re CA. Very silly indeed.

Probably right. Obama's a poker player. He has a made hand right now. I believe McCain has no outs. The 4 potential routes for him I mentioned earlier are no longer longshots. They're impossible. The game's over.

LAT said...

news--as I posted in the otehr thread. Palin's comment on the VP's responsabilities is really very very scary. Cheney has nothing on this lady.

Matt W said...

lat,
Come on, that is typical middle class behavior. $75k shopping sprees will endear her to the hard working real americans.

newsfromOH said...

Bible Spice!!! great one, lat

Today is killing me!!! Between the scarily laughable news and the posts here!

Eric said...

newsfromOH said...
Palin's ignorance of the Constitution makes me gasp, then hyperventilate. Only this site and the Daily Show stop it from projectile vomiting . . .

I think it's unacceptable for middle school children to not know the role of the Vice President or understand separation of powers. This takes the cake. She's a total tool.

mc9cain said...

Eric,
Is that your wife posting again under your name? The last time there were posts like this you said it was your wife. Cmon now. The definition of SAFE DEM states is ummmm SAFE DEM.

Christopher said...

Great post, Sean! I'm super impressed with the organization. I've run a big production staffed by volunteers and it's no easy challenge. McCain/Palin is about to find out about community organizers for real.

Hopefully, the ground teams will remain engaged as the Obama Administration goes forward. We truly need a leader that we believe in and want to follow.

And now the NBC/WSJ poll is in and its.... +10 for Obama. Sweeet!

borderpeak said...

Eric, you don't have to worry about California, or lions and tigers, and bears, oh my! When you're in Cali you're not in Kansas anymore so get ready to party. Eric, you are too silly about California.

Still in Mexico matt w? Will you have any trouble getting back into the states?

Matt W said...

eric,
besides movie stars when was the last time a GOPer won much of anything in CA? Plus Arnold is a RINO.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Agree Eric---don't see anyway for McCain to win anymore---and being an Jet and Met fan---I can always find a way to lose.

Ak_Space_Man said...

Eric,

... but we have moose hide jackets... much nicer.

Liberal defender,

... watching my wife eat moose burgers still gets me hot...

Matt W said...

Borderpeak,
I hope not! I am staying in Mex until Oct 2009. Been here since Dec 07.

Eric said...

Here WERE the 4 outs for McCain:

#1 Play perfect defense. hold everything from '04 minus Iowa and New Mexico

#2 Pennsylvania and some defense

#3 A combination of more than one of Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Washington, Michigan and some defense

#4 California

I now believe, none of the 4 are possible. Obama has a flush and with the river to come McCain is hoping to make his straight. He can't win in any conventional way.

LAT said...

okay guys, Maddow is officially the concern troll of MSNBC what is up with her?

Vote said...

How the Base was Won

Chris M. said...

Nate,

I saw your comments on Countdown - relax a bit and tell folks with a smile that Mc Cain has less than a ten percent chance of pulling anything out of this electoral map. In order to pull out PA, he'll have to dive deeply into the dumpster, and that's where all the brown shit is.

On a different note, Sarah Palin's shopping spree is like putting Prada on a Palin... much more expensive and less effective than lipstick on a hockey mom.

Eric said...

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...
Agree Eric---don't see anyway for McCain to win anymore---and being an Jet and Met fan---I can always find a way to lose.

Ha, Houston Oiler and Michael Dukakis fan here. I have you beat big time.

Matt W said...

eric,
you aren't worried he might make a run at NY?

;)

LAT said...

matt w--LOL, yes those 75K shopping sprees are so so middle class. Especially in that middle class store Neiman Markup.

I really do see Palin more as Bible Spice than Caribuo Barbie.

borderpeak said...

matt w., sometimes good guys do win I guess. Good night everyone.

juliephx said...

Rupert Doobe: What a nice post. Thanks.

Sean...great piece of writing.

Subterranean said...

Lol, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that McCain's Georgia campaign runs out of his Tallahassee, FL office, simply because it's the nearest one.

Awesome.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

Matt W.

You asked for the difference in the two campaign efforts.

I've been volunteering here in NoVa since right around June for Obama. I receive all the emails coordinating canvassing and voter registration efforts for both campaigns. I like to see what the other team is up to.

Back in June, McCain didn't have anything going on. I've got my first email from the canvassing coordinator from back in June and there were already around 5-6 events on a weekend.

The last email I received last week from the McCain campaign had approximately 6 events scheduled for the weekend here in Northern Virginia.

The Obama campaign, including campaign staging areas and personal staging areas coordinated through the Obama website, I would say numbered somewhere around 50-60.

There is really no comparison of the two.

The thing is this. McCain might have gotten a large boost from Palin volunteer wise but Obama has been identifying voters with massive amounts of volunteers since he's been campaigning since the primaries.

He's had a bit of a head start to say the least.

Christopher said...

Eric - Unless you are talking about California, Oklahoma, I'm not too worried about it! The real question is just how many folks will vote if they believe it's in the bag for Obama and early indications are for high turnout. Talked down yet?

Eric said...

Matt W said...
eric,
you aren't worried he might make a run at NY?

Cali is more flaky and that ballot initiative scares me. New York City is so large and liberal, no I'm not concerned about New York. I've been to both New York and Cali multiple times in the last year. New York is all about Obama and if they're not Obamarama, they're for clinton and will listen to her. She's projecting well for Obama. Her sincerity is obvious. Bill's another story. Also California is worth more. I actually think Obama could lose New York and still win probably.

Matt W said...

I know we all know it, but this site rocks.
1st class statistics, I mean ground breaking amazing stats!
and probably the BEST ORIGINAL REPORTING on the ground games in swing states.

Nate and Sean should win a Weby.

borderpeak said...

Wait Eric, don't you dare put Washington on a list of tipable states, I get some of the computer guys around here to hunt you down and then I'll squeeze your neck. Now I'll say good night all and mean it.

newsfromOH said...

And while Obama holds a flush, McCain keeps throwing dice at his cards . . . "Snake eyes, again???"

Stuart said...

MCCAIN OHIO, OHIO/FL

I THINK OHIO/FL is actually just:
MCCAIN LOSES FL WINS THE ELECTION NOT LOSES OHIO AND FLORIDA & WINS

In this run 'loses Ohio' and 'loses Florida' are equally likely events
(7086 out of 10000)

BUT MCCAIN never wins if he loses FL, as opposed to winning 3 times if he loses OHIO (result of 7 additional EVs and possible cross-correlations with other states

newsfromOH said...

On explaining Palin, truly:

http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf

Alex S. said...

Great piece Sean, and your assessment of McCain´s campaign was confirmed by Chuck Todd´s and Scarborough´s comments today. The question is, how will the ground organization move the polls? It´s not just the Obama campaign being the BEST organized campaign ever, it´s also the McCain campaign being almost non-existant. What will the difference be in Indiana and Missouri? I am sure it will turn both of them blue, and Obama will overperform the polls by about 5%. Will your impressions have an effect on Nate´s projection? It seems there are certain formulas on how to translate a good GOTV into votes. Oh, and Virginia will be blue, of course, 55-45.

FakeVirginian said...

Welcome to my neck of the woods. I live in Herndon, va about 20-30 min away from falls church, always depending on traffic of course. Going to the obama rally in leesburg tomorrow, another 20-30 minutes away. Again all depending on our hilarious northern va traffic. I can attest to everything written up there. The GOTV effort round here is insane and the organization is very tight and focused. Obama has Communist Country.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Am I the only one that thinks that Rick Davis looks like Jeffrey Dahmer?

newsfromOH said...

By the way, the article I linked to also explains most trolls.

Given the range of questions, answers, opinions and discussions (and paranoia!!) otherwise, it's pretty clear where most other poster fall in the study.

LAT said...

news, that article looks so so good. I have been saying--nothing worse or more dangerous than being out of your league and thinking you are actually not out of your league. Good to see the pros agree,

newsfromOH said...

eric and matt w

And I raise you both with Browns and Indians!

Rodney Peterson said...

Yes, snake eyes again for McCain...and remember, whatever you do, don't touch his arm at the craps table...or he'll fly into a rage...

Is Los Angeles Homicide Detective Samuel Catalfamo-a man with two sons with felony records-an officer with something to hide? Why does one of his sons have an obsession with fabricating or destroying homicide evidence? See the story here:

www.myspace.com/370392338

Kid G said...

Sean, what happened to the writeup about McCain's ground operation in Falls Church???

Chris said...

All these Kerouac quotes... are you the "laptop Kerouac" Roy Zimmerman sings about in his recent song "I Approve This Message"? (at 1:49)

NoVa Commie said...

Al Queda endorses John McCain...


Al-Qaeda Hails Financial Crisis
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/21/AR2008102102477.html?hpid=topnews

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Come on news---Browns yes--very bad but Indians--didn't they win a world series?

Eric said...

Subterranean said...
Lol, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that McCain's Georgia campaign runs out of his Tallahassee, FL office, simply because it's the nearest one.

Awesome.


I think it would be smart strategy to find 5 or 6 pink state where McCain's advantage is 10 or less points and outspend him w/ crazy money down the stretch. Here's my list. If he can figure out where McCain is likely to not defend that would help.

States Obama is about tied. McCain's finances are probably a little tight. He may not be able to play great defense in all of the battleground. If he thinks these states will not be tipping point, make them tipping points:

Missouri
Indiana

then go...

West Virginia
Arkansas
North Dakota
Montana
Georgia
South Carolina
Omaha

make sure to protect Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Maine District 2, Oregon, New Jersey and Washington


this is with state funds after state spending on battleground states and national spending. I think if McCain plays it weak in Indiana or missouri, Obama should outspend him 10:1 in whichever state.

JC said...

I came for the polls, I stay for the comments and the on-the-road reports. Sean, this one was truly inspirational, makes me wish I could volunteer. But as an Aussie cartoonist, the only way I can pitch in is to draw cartoons about the election. After reading this, I might go and draw a few more...

mc9cain said...

Before throwing out her insult about community organizing later that week, the former Mayor of Wasilla was Actually Doing Things --which was spending donations of $150,000 with personal shopping at the Mall of America. Nice!!

NJ_Moderate said...

Obama is going to win but it is going to be close. Biden, Murtha and Obama himself have given McCain some much needed lift and he is going to close strong. OH, NC, IN, MO, FL and WV will fall into the McCain column but unless Western PA turns out in force for McCain, Obama is going to win 286-252 or 291-247 if he happens to flip Nevada.

As to the trackers, any polls that has Dems more than 5.5% above Reps is inherently suspect as is any poll that has Dems less than 4% above Reps. Nate is pretty close but I think Ras is spot-on with the current state of the race (50-46%). Both Nevada and Ohio went to Bush by 2.5% which matched the popular vote margin. Given that they lean to Obama by 2% now, Obama's lead could even be closer to 3%. With CO and VA polling so strongly for Obama, it is extremely unlikely that McCain can flip both without Biden's help.

The Pew poll is a joke and its internals are so laughable that it must be skewed to fabricate a news story.

newsfromOH said...

nam vet,

nope, lost it in, I think or it just feels like it, the ninth on a muffed play . . . Heartbreak thy name is Cleveland!!!!!

Matt W said...

Liberal defender,
Thanks for that. I appreciate the info

LAT said...

Mc9cain

Lol so right. But you know it gets even worse--she couldnot shop at the Mall of america because Neiman Marcus is in downtown Minneapolis, far from that middle class shopping establishment.

sfergus483 said...

From a Californian:

#1 Reagan won California twice
-- in 1980, 1984. It was a traditional Republican leaning state until 1992. The GOP going all culture wars and the growing Latino popultion turned the state blue.

#2 Schwarzenegger won
-- on the state-office level, the races are often more personality than party oriented. Plus he's much to the left of most Repubs

#3 McCain did well in the primary there
-- and Obama coming in 2nd in the Dem primary got many many more votes
#4 Clinton beat Obama
-- She had all the organization support, Obama barely campaigned here, and we have heavy early voting, which Clinton won by a large margin. Had our primary been in June, Obama would have won

#5 This Gay Marriage #8 thing is on the ballot and will drive Conservativesto the polls that would have otherwise stayed home
-- Palin does that as well. If only whites in California voted, 8 would lose (which it might anyway). Blacks and Latinos - heavy Obama voters - as of now seem more likely pro-8 voters.

#6 Those 55 electoral votes might be McCain's only hope
-- Then he's screwed.

#7 I heard something about Republicans commiting voter registration fraud in wild numbers there
-- Wild numbers if this were Wyoming. Almost nothing in a state of 40 million people. Our voting system is pretty clean.

The last poll had Obama up 59-35. He'll likely end up around 61-62%.

MysticLaker said...

good night 538 blog

good night mysticlaker

LAT said...

I personally wna to see nj moderate posting here on election night to tell us just how close th election is going to be because of Murtha and Biden. Keep on hoping.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

nj moderate---Biden, Murtha and Obama have given McCain some much needed lift.

They would be a lift if people were still listening to the campaign. I think the polls are showing a solidifying of Obama's support. They have heard so much negative stuff from the McCain campaign that, although Biden and Murtha's statements were poorly chosen---it is not going to make much difference.

Eric said...

NJ_Moderate said...
Obama is going to win but it is going to be close. Biden, Murtha and Obama himself have given McCain some much needed lift and he is going to close strong. OH, NC, IN, MO, FL and WV will fall into the McCain column but unless Western PA turns out in force for McCain, Obama is going to win 286-252 or 291-247 if he happens to flip Nevada.


So, even with your math GOP math, the only reasonable path for McCain victory is flip Pennsylvania and hold Nevada or keep both Colorado and Virginia.

Very unlikely.

newsfromOH said...

A couple of weeks ago, some Mc campaign knucklehead said they were saving the best for last, that they planned "something" for the last 10 days of the campaign. We're getting close and I still keep wondering if they've come up with something . . .

mc9cain said...

Nate,
I've thought about this alot and I believe you have too because you keep dressing Indiana in red, then pink, then back to red, maybe a little fuscia on one day.

I'm telling you Indiana looks best in something light blue. Give it a try - I think Hal your model will agree --if for no reason other than most of her neighbors are all dressed in dark blue. Matchy match works here.

And if you're STILL not comfortable with it, please get some advice from Ann Selzer - she's really good with color coordinating and all. I just don't want Indiana to feel awkward dressed all wrong for the Nov 4 party in her neighborhood.

STepper said...

Eric

You have nothing to worry about in California. Google Proposition 189 and you'll understand. When Gov. Pete Wilson shoved that one through for some reason it activated the Hispanic vote which became permanently and irrevocably Democratic.

I have been a liberal Dem all my life (63 yrs) and am a native Californian. The state has become so overwhelmingly Democratic that every now and then I am now voting for a candidate for state assembly or senate who is not a Dem (a Republican a couple of times), because they are so out there. I am a hunter and pet owner and the Animal Rights nutbags have captured many of our urban area state legislators and are making it harder for people to own pets and ride horses.

The reason Schwarzenegger won is because he was a moderate and also an actor. McCain is looked upon here as hard right.

I hope I have talked you down.

NJ_Moderate said...

lat, this election is going to be a repeat of 1976. That election was 297-240 and this will be similar. Obama is a weak candidate when looking at history but the headwinds are too strong for McCain to overcome just as they were for Ford in 1976.

sfergus has a good point to. . CA, NY and IL are going to go so overwhelmingly for Obama, they will skew national polls. Out of a 1000 person sample, these state account for nearly 1/4 of the population and if they vote for Obama 60-40% (and that is conservative it may be more like 2-1), then even if McCain achieve parity in the battleground states, he will still be down 3-4% nationally.

One$Earned said...

nj_moderate said, Obama is going to win but it is going to be close. Biden, Murtha and Obama himself have given McCain some much needed lift and he is going to close strong. OH, NC, IN, MO, FL and WV will fall into the McCain column but unless Western PA turns out in force for McCain, Obama is going to win 286-252 or 291-247 if he happens to flip Nevada.

As to the trackers, any polls that has Dems more than 5.5% above Reps is inherently suspect as is any poll that has Dems less than 4% above Reps. Nate is pretty close but I think Ras is spot-on with the current state of the race (50-46%). Both Nevada and Ohio went to Bush by 2.5% which matched the popular vote margin. Given that they lean to Obama by 2% now, Obama's lead could even be closer to 3%. With CO and VA polling so strongly for Obama, it is extremely unlikely that McCain can flip both without Biden's help.

I for the most part except I believe the election will be won in OH. OH is key in my opinion. OH is a microcosm of the nation. OH has voted correctly in the past five elections. They have earned the respect, at least from me that this state usually selects the president correctly. I wanted to say right, but had to back off that word choice.

OH, OH. Obama wins OH by 2.5 points.

eve said...

Besides campaign managers and politicians, major and minor corporations are going to want to learn much more about the vast and highly effcient organization that Obama put together for this election. This is going to be studied in MBA programs.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Well they have tried inexperienced, socialist, communist, celebrity---only thing left is cross dresser (no offense to any cross dressers blogging tonite)

gougef said...

October 21, 2008 8:13 PM
Blogger newsfromOH said...

And while Obama holds a flush, McCain keeps throwing dice at his cards . . . "Snake eyes, again???"
------------------------------------

He's trying for the "hard six", but that has happened for him in years.

NJ_Moderate said...

It is not GOP math, it is the math of someone who has supported many losing Democratic presidnetial candidates because the wild-eyed, naive supporters always overestimated how much support we actually have in middle America.

LAT said...

Obamisa weak candidate?
yes, super weak nj moderate.
if it weren;t for all the things happening he would be losing according to you.
I really have nothing to say because anyone who believes this, as you clearly do, is living in an alternative reality. Obama is, one of the best candidates we have had in a very very long time. One in a generation.

rdweber said...
This post has been removed by the author.
NJ_Moderate said...

one earned, if it comes down to OH, I have to think that McCain would win a 'fair' election in the state.

gougef said...

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Well they have tried inexperienced, socialist, communist, celebrity---only thing left is cross dresser (no offense to any cross dressers blogging tonite)

------------------------------------

One of my dirty little secrets is that I absolutely love drag shows.

If you met me, you probably think that I am a redneck, countrified hillbilly.

Sorry, off-topic.

Eric said...

newsfromOH said...
A couple of weeks ago, some Mc campaign knucklehead said they were saving the best for last, that they planned "something" for the last 10 days of the campaign. We're getting close and I still keep wondering if they've come up with something . . .


The RNC has stashed a lot of money for the end. I think they're caught a little off-guard by the amount of money Obama is raising though. McCain has $47 MM ad Obama has $132 MM, but the RNC has a lot more money thna the DNC. I don't think the RNC's money can't blunt the overwhelming Obama $$$ advantage though. I think they (RNC) have more than $100MM though to do with what they will.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

He can have OH NJ-Mod---now what?

NJ_Moderate said...

lat, if Obama were a strong candidate, 500 EVs would be within reach just as they were for Johnson in 64, Nixon in 72, Reagan in 80 and 84 and even GHWB got well over 400 in 88. Yes, Obama is a weak candidate but he has a strong tailwind due to Bush's mismanagement and the economic crisis.

Yvonne said...

Has anyone seen Campbell Brown on CNN tonight? She had a feature on why the McCain Campaign is in Pennsylvania. Murtha seems to be worried.

Eric said...

Where's Selzer's poll?

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Murtha shoots off his mouth and now he's worried.Murtha is an ass.

NJ_Moderate said...

nam vet, now what? It is going to be a close, tight election that Obama will win as mentioned many times. There are too many starry-eyed kids in here for rational thought. Carter was up 11 around this date and just squeaked by Ford.

With Obama's massive ad blitz, if he isn't getting their vote by now, he will never get it. If a poll is 50-42%, at least 2/3rds of the undecideds will break to McCain (90% broke to Gore but that was influenced by Bush's DUI).

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Ahh....the mythology of the Selzer Poll.

akoolromeo said...

I just got finish watching RFK JR on the Rachel Maddow show talking about all the voter purges going on, and though I am not one of those conspiracist, it does have me very concern. 64,000 purges in Colorado? I know Florida has the perfect match, which will eliminate many hispanic votwrs, who due to their heritage and culture, tend to hyphenate their names, which often leads to a lot of confusion. I know for personal experience about that, because I work in the government and sometimes we have trouble looking up someone in our system by their names, because of their tendency to hyphenate their names, and sometimes because when they give their name the person taking their name mis hear it, and flip the hyphenated names.
If the polls show Obama winning by 10 and he ends up losing this race, I fear what the reaction will be around the country. They could say all they won't about the validity of polls, but they can't be off by THAT much. There will be those who would be proclaiming the end of our democracy if that should happen. How could you even expect people to come out and vote again, if they start believing it's rigged. Let's hope this is all noise, and not a concerted effort by one political party against another.

eve said...

Thanks Sean and Brett. Great piece tonight. The overview of the volunteer organizational setup is eye-popping.

The whole series is a joy.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

I have been hearing about this poll for the last week Eric. Does it really exist?

newsfromOH said...
This post has been removed by the author.
NJ_Moderate said...

I think OBama will match Carter and win 50.1% of the vote to McCain's 47.5% (a 2.6% victory). The Evs will be close since Obama will win blue states by massive margins and McCain will win red states by lesser margins. McCain can not win CO or VA if he loese the popular vote by more than 1.0% though.

LAT said...

Yvonne---I recommend youget off CNN and do some phone banking in PA. McCain is in PA because he HAS to be there since he has nowhere else to go. Period.

NJ moderate. I think you were the one daying a few weeks ago that Obama could not win and that if it were Hillary we would be 30 points up or something like that. Sorry but I really do not buy your argument at all. Obama is a newbie and he has run the most amazing campaign. Even with all the shit being thrown at him. His favorables are the highest of any candidate in polling (see NYT yesterday). Your idea that he shoudl be wining by 500 is ridiculous. When was the last time a dem won like that without a 3rd party candidate taking votes off the rep? Gte back to me.

[ tyler curtain ] said...

Hi, Sean--these have become my favorite entries on 538. This one brought tears to my eyes--I know, I know. They're terrific.

Kid G said...

NJ_moderate:

I think you are trying to be PC, but actually mean "if Obama were a WHITE candidate", no? Obama is a terrifically strong candidate. He speaks to people's needs more directly than anyone since Clinton.

NJ_Moderate said...

akoolromeo, don't worry about it .. the fraud by both sides will cancel each other out (in fact, Obama may have an advantage w/ ACORN).

If Obama and Biden hide out for the next two weeks, they will win. McCain is only 'creeping' closer thanks to the ammo they gave him.

akoolromeo said...

NJ_Moderate said...
nam vet, now what? It is going to be a close, tight election that Obama will win as mentioned many times. There are too many starry-eyed kids in here for rational thought. Carter was up 11 around this date and just squeaked by Ford.

With Obama's massive ad blitz, if he isn't getting their vote by now, he will never get it. If a poll is 50-42%, at least 2/3rds of the undecideds will break to McCain (90% broke to Gore but that was influenced by Bush's DUI).

*******
I don't think Bush's DUI had much of an effect. I don't think many people consider a DUI to be that serious. I consered his dodging the draft to be a bigger issue, only because the Republican made it such a big deal prior to Bush's election.
If Obama holds on to PA, I don't see how he finishes with less than 286 EV, unless something drastic happens. I will be surpirsed if he gets more than 300. I am not that optimistic. I think the reason mcCain is still focusing on PA, despite the polls, is because he probably feels he has no other choice but to win that state.
I expect Obama to lose FLorida and Ohio, but I think with winning Virgina, Colorado and New Mexico, he'll end up with 286.

newsfromOH said...

I may be hitting one note tonight but Palin's VP role remarks are so outrageous and blatantly unconstitutional that this greatest hits video from Olbermann is a must-see:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677#27313586

FakeVirginian said...

RE: palin's vp role remarks

I fell on the floor laughing. Chris Matthews cracked a joke that being is high school civics class stuff.

FakeVirginian said...

RE: palin's vp role remarks

I fell on the floor laughing. Chris Matthews cracked a joke that being is high school civics class stuff.

Roger said...

Is it remotely possible that Mccain could win california or is that a silly concern?

I'm from California, and a McCain win here is simply not going to happen. The Governator's win in a multi-way special election was a one-off (and he's pro-business but socially liberal and pro-environment -- i.e. way out of line with the mainstream national Republicans). Other than that, the Democrats have a solid lock on everything political around here -- in fact in San Francisco, it's a two-party town, and the Democrats are the right-wing party, the left-wing choice is the Green Party.

Both houses of CA State legislature have a solid Democratic majority, and have had for a long time, most of the state elected posts are held by Democrats, and both our US senators (Pelosi and Boxer) and a solid majority of our US house members are Democrats. Reagan did win CA, but he was an ex-CA governor and won almost every US state (49 out of 50, I think) -- I believe CA's been reliable Democratic in presidential elections ever since then.

Yvonne said...

lat,

I will go to Nevada (from California), but I just red online in several blogs that supposedly a leaked internal poll from the Obama campaign only shows him up by 2%. I am getting worried. There is no other reason for the McCain campaign to be there otherwise. They have pulled out of every other state that shows Obama ahead by more than 8%.

zzyzx said...

"Carter was up 11 around this date and just squeaked by Ford."

Ford gained on Carter due to the debates. Is there a 4th presidential debate scheduled sometime?

newsfromOH said...

n_j moderate:

ACORN's officially off the GOP talking point list because:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677#27313459

NJ_Moderate said...

kid g, not being PC or non-PC. Obama is inexperienced, somewhat gaffe-prone and does not have a record of accomplishment. Countering that, he does inspire undying loyalty in his supporters like Bush and he is even-tempered and cool. Still, given his strengths and weaknesses, Huckabee or Romney would have been a very difficult opponent for Obama to defeat this year. Thankfully, the Reps didn't select them.

akoolromeo said...

NJ_Moderate said...
akoolromeo, don't worry about it .. the fraud by both sides will cancel each other out (in fact, Obama may have an advantage w/ ACORN).

If Obama and Biden hide out for the next two weeks, they will win. McCain is only 'creeping' closer thanks to the ammo they gave him.

October 21, 2008 8:48 PM

*******
From all I learned about ACORN, they aren't the one perpretrating a fraud. They seem to be the victim of THE fraud, because they paid these workers to get legitimate voters, but instead, these lazy SOBS made up names, rather than work for it, and got paid by ACORN for voters registration that is useless. BY law ACORN HAD to turn those registrations into the election office, even those they knew were fraudulant. There's a law that requires all registrations be turned in, regardless of what they are legitimate or not) While there may be phony registrations, those people will not actually be showing up at the polls on election day. Even if some phoney person did, they still need a State driver's license, in addition to the registration, so they will need to get a pretty good legitimate looking DL to vote. Trust me. Tony Romo is not going to be showing up to vote in Nevada, even if someone fille dout his name on a registration there.

chrish60 said...

@rdweber

Rah, Rah, Obama! Gag me. Y'all have stopped even pretending to attempt to give equal chances to both campaigns? Well, ok, but your credibility is somewhat mitigated now.


This has never been neutral site! Nate and Sean have never made any attempt to hide their support for Obama.

What is neutral, or is supposed to be, is the mathematical model that processes poll results and generates all the predictions on this page. Whether Nate's model is a valid model or not is something we'll find out on November 4th.

Roger said...

guys really you must check out that link I have there for the yahoo story from Politico on the Palin RNC shopping spree of 150K.

I see Sugar-Daddy McCain let her have the credit cards...

I think Obama's campaign could get some advertising mileage out of that -- I mean, that's a shopping spree worth roughly three times the average family's annual income! Last time I checked, Christians considered vanity to be a mortal sin...

LAT said...

yvonne--we talked about that supossed internal poll last week or a few days ago. Look we cannot get complacent but worrying and hand rining about how McCain knows something we do not and that he will pull PA and win is not an exercise that gets us anything. Just because the pundits are now trying to spin this McCain move as as some brilliant there is something up in PA move does not mean anything.
I am sure that Obama will lose Ohio, and will pull FL very narrowly. But he will win PA. This si not the primary and he is not runing agasnt Hillary. The owmne of PA HATE Palin.

narphorium said...

Matthew said...
One gets the impression that books will be written on the Obama GOTV.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sean and Brett got an offer to publish this series of blog posts as a book.

Ed M. said...

I fell on the floor laughing. Chris Matthews cracked a joke that being is high school civics class stuff.

That's not ignorance, it's Cheney on steroids. Someone has told her she can wield power in the Senate.

sfergus483 said...

In 1976, as the campaign went along the public liked Ford more (remember he still wasn't that well known to the public despite being president - this was his first national campaign ever) and liked Carter less (the "lust in my heart" comment was just plain yucky).

Carter had not had nearly the exposure to the public that Obama has had - different times, different media. He really was something of a mystery, and Ford ended up winning the safer choice vote.

Also the dynamic toward the Dems was far less than this year - the Watergate stink was wearing off (since apart from the pardon Ford had nothing to do with it). The economy was recovering a bit from the oil boycott problems earlier.

And Carter had nothing remotely resembling Obama's organization and enthusiasm.

Interesting sidelight - had Ford had someone more positive than Bob Dole as his running mate, or had the campaign had one more week, he probably would have won.

And then a Dem would have won in 1980, and Ronald Reagan never would have been president.

msinger said...

I'm canvassing out of the South Fairfax County office, and a newly-opened satellite office (up and running in less than 48 hours!), neither one far from the one Sean visited. And they seem to be every bit as organized and motivated as the Falls Church office.

I am so fucking proud to be part of this campaign.

STepper said...

Sugar-Daddy McCain

Do you mean Daddy War & Bucks?

newsfromOH said...

Sean, Nate and Brett should publish all of the site content as a book!!!

Buckeye said...

what's the story about Pennsylvania? I hear Obama is only up 2 points.

One$Earned said...

@ buckeye...

Who or what said so about PA up by 2 points?

Jersey said...

I just knocked a hundred doors in Springfield today, as a matter of fact. Lily white, lots of Reagan Democrats, coming home to the blue. Northern Virginia represent!!

Eric said...

FakeVirginian said...
RE: palin's vp role remarks

I fell on the floor laughing. Chris Matthews cracked a joke that being is high school civics class stuff.


It's not high-school civics. It's 5th grade Social Studies.

Jersey said...

I just knocked a hundred doors in Springfield today, as a matter of fact. Lily white, lots of Reagan Democrats, coming home to the blue. Northern Virginia represent!!

Lani said...

I'm still waiting for the October surprise from McCain.

He's lulling everyone into a false sense of security. They threatened Jeremiah Wright. But are negative Obama ads possible since he's buying all the TV time?

On another note, ACORN is not an issue. Once again they are relying on low info voters to believe the scandal. I say lets talk about the guy here in the Los Angeles, California are who was arrested for voter fraud. There probably won't be much talk about voter fraud by McCain anymore.

There needs to be a landslide cause they are on point waiting to file a lawsuit on Novmeber 5th contesting the results.

LAT said...

the tracking poll has obama up 10 in PA but now all the concern trolls are out peddling this rmor of an internal poll. I don't mean to be a blowhard here but can we please stop with the rumors? If Obama;s numebrs begin to plument on the PA tracking poll then we can revist the issue. Obama is not taking PA for granted.

Eric said...

Buckeye said...
what's the story about Pennsylvania? I hear Obama is only up 2 points.


Made up by an Obama precinct captain to rally troops. 10 points is more like it.

thisniss said...

Here's a little ground game reflection - just an "ah-ha" moment I had yesterday. Last night I took my mom and son to see James Taylor here in Chapel Hill, because they are both huge fans of the JT. It was, as you might expect, a largely white, largely middle aged crowd, with some students and some thirty-somethings filling in the edges. Like all Obama-related events, attendees ended up filling out info profiles which include a volunteer solicitation (in this case, as with a lot of the concert events, it was on the tickets themselves).

So, as we are in the home stretch here, I started thinking back on the different Obama events that have happened in and around central NC in the last six months or so. I was thinking about the brilliant way that the campaign has drawn on volunteer-to-volunteer efforts, and thinking back to, say, the Superchunk/Arcade Fire concerts that encouraged Early Vote turnout in NC's May primary. Unsurprisingly, they drew a very different crowd from the James Taylor concerts focusing on Early Vote turnout in NC's general election. But it's not just the focused voter demographics that are different.

See, all those hipsters who turned up for Arcade Fire in April (and the somewhat older hipsters who came for Superchunk) yielded a core of volunteers who are now helping to organize the late-blooming, older crowd of volunteers that are coming on board now. The JT concert will mostly yield voters, but it will also produce a different set of volunteers, including a group of fresh canvassers for the final GOTV push before election day.

And this is where I think the Obama campaign has been so very brilliant. It's not just that they've targeted different voting groups effectively. They've also targeted different volunteer groups effectively, and at the right times. Canvassing this weekend, the folks who I saw going out were mostly people who were not younger supporters, not "die-hards," not people who've been with the campaign from the beginning. These were the folks who've been getting called once a week since the convention and have finally agreed to canvass for Early Voting. They're the ones who don't have much time to give, but know that their time is needed now. They're not the Arcade Fire crowd; they're the James Taylor crowd.

I don't know if this makes sense as a metaphor, but I hope so. And I'm sure that every local situation is different, because on every level, what has made this campaign so effective is its attention to local specificities in its application of the national models.

prairiecomm said...

any link yet for nate on countdown?

One$Earned said...

OH bloggers, the Obama campaign needs you this last fourteen days.

√ Cleveland
√ Dayton
√ Cincinnati
√ Akron
√ Columbus
√ Toledo
√ Trenton
√ Youngstown

GOTV effort is extremely important.

GOTV, GOTV, GOTV

√ GOTV

Kid G said...

Inexperienced? He is 46 and has been in the political sphere in some capacity since he was 24 or 25. That's 20 years on the Harvard Law Review, practicing lawyer, state senate, and senate. I would call him inexperienced if he had only been out of law school for a few years. Certainly, his political decision-making in this 2 years of campaigning does not make you doubt his judgment or lack of experience?

gaffe-prone? let's see: 1) guns and religion, 2) above my paygrade, 3) If I were a Muslim, and 4) spread the wealth. Through in excess of 20 debates and 2 years of campaigning, these are the only memorable verbal gaffes I can come up with. Please add to this list. Maybe you can say Rev. Wright was a gaffe. That's not gaffe prone in this age of the internet.

record of accomplishment? If I have anywhere near as many accomplishments as Obama does when I am 46, I will be one proud and happy camper. On top of the world, you might even say.

Give the man a little credit. There's a reason why even rational people (like me, I hope) have fallen into his camp. He is a true role model.

assmole said...

go to the msnbc site duh

Buffalo Wing Conspiricist said...

re: the internals

Google News search "Rendell" and you get articles about the usual state redtape stuff and one or two low key references to him asking BO to campaign a bit more, it is hardly making headline news and sreaming from banners.

Kennyb said...

Interesting, thisniss.

Perhaps this is too big a leap, I also notice the same type of approach with targeting of states, giving Obama different, distinct geogrpahic/demographic strategies to 270. Florida. The Western States (NM, NV & CO), the Mid-Atlantic/AA (VA, NC), the MidWest (OH, IA, IN). Maybe it was fortuitous, but maybe it was part of the plan. I'll read about it in Axelrod's book.

LAT said...

kid g thanks for taking up the effort to debunk nj not moderate points about Obama. A lot of ex-hillary supporters are very very hard on Obama and cannot recognize any of his strenghts.

mc9cain said...

Kid G,
You nailed it. Nice post.

newsfromOH said...

Thisniss,

Your description of the process is exactly right and I believe it applies generally to what the campaign has done nationally. It's a completely different model than ever seen before because a) it relies heavily on technology and Obama is the first extremely tech savvy candidate with a tech savvy general population and b) it takes a long time to develop. It's not the sort of "Let's make calls for a month to get our volunteers" effort. Granted, it eventually reaches critical mass where it grows exponentially to vast numbers, but that's months and months down the road. Not many candidates have had that foresight.

Yet another reason that all signs point to a great President. I want this guy in charge of my country--and I've NEVER felt that way before.

assmole said...

It was better when it was just polling geeks here. Yuk.

One$Earned said...

@ kid g,

good analysis, however political campaigns are touch and unforgiving so we would expect the opposing party and their supporters to try to minimize all that you've stated in an effort to elevate their own candidate.

eve said...

As impressed as I am with Obama and with this national volunteer organization, I will say it's not working great everywhere.

I have emailed and called to volunteer and I get nada response.

LAT said...

coomunity service--anyone worrying about PA and McCain you must read this post by Al Giordano who called a lot of the primaries right and was on the ground in PA last week or so. Read it. and Stop panicking.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/panic-room-whats-mccains-pennsylvania-gambit

Sean Quinn said...

Don't worry, rdweber, we have empty office shots of McCain's non-operation all across Virginia for you tomorrow. So watch out for that. Buck up little camper, we'll beat this slope... together.

assmole said...

People are nicer in Communist countries I find, Sean. Did you find that?

Correa-Jones Happenings said...

Hi everyone,

Just checking in. I have a few threads to read and a few comments to peruse through.

I did make it to the Obama/Hillary rally in Orlando yesterday. Very long day, it was very cool to be 20feet away from the podium to see and hear them and chant "YES WE CAN" and "JOBS BABY JOBS" with 50K of my way to close to my personal space in Florida heat friends. It was great =)

GO VOLUNTEER AND GO VOTE IF YOU WANT YOUR GUY TO WIN!

dkan71 said...

Great post and pictures as usual. This is getting to be one of my favorite features of the whole campaign.

However, is there no way to get yourselves "un-blacklisted" from the McCain campaign offices? Some fresh mooseburger or mooseloaf maybe?

It's such a missing that we don't get the side by side comparison anymore. Or is the story that there's not much there to report on? I wish I didn't have to infer.

SCIndie said...

Just a question, I've been lurking around here for a while and posting very occasionally, and I was just wondering where in the hell all of this sudden concern (from some other sites and from Rendell/Murtha et al.) about Pennsylvania is coming from. I mean, he hasn't led by less then about 8 or 10 points there for a month now in ANY poll, there is no way at all he loses PA. I know McCain is making his last push there, but there no way he can make up a 10-12 point gap in 2 weeks. Am I missing something here, or have a bunch of people just gone kinda insane?

Kid G said...

eve,
the beauty of the ground campaign is that you don't need to get a response. Have you tried setting up a mybarackobama account and doing neighbor-to-neighbor? All you need is a computer and cell phone and you can set up your own office.

@ lat, mc9cain, and one$earned: thanks

assmole said...
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newsfromOH said...
This post has been removed by the author.
One$Earned said...

< not worried about PA, PA is, for the most part in the Democratic column.

OH on the other hand is truly a swing state,

Voted for "W" twice,
Voted for Clinton twice

The polling is within 3 points, how else do you define battleground.

Now that's a battleground state if I every saw one.

Joe Kowalski said...

Nate talking with Olberman: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/#27313324

PA John said...
This post has been removed by the author.
PA John said...

NJ Moderates's Greatest Hits:

on September 5, 2008 9:08 PM
NJ_Moderate said...
The Palin pick is looking like a genius pick in retrospect. MI, WI and PA will come into play now and I have to think that McCain will open up a lead in OH next week.


And...

N
on September 13 NJ_Moderate said...
This election is closest to 1988 thus far, where a new, exciting, ethnic candidate like Dukakis surged to a large lead in June/July but gaffes and blunders in the August and September timeframe combined with a poor first debate set the stage for a landslide by his opponent.

As for results, the most common outcome will be Obama = Kerry + IA with NM a complete toss-up. If Palin locks up the Libertarian vote out West, all of the Mountain West states will go red except maybe NM.


His insight is breathtaking...

SCIndie said...

@ LAT

- Thank you for preemptively allaying my fears.

newsfromOH said...

eve,

where are you?

nc redhead said...

What a great birthday present to see these polls and analysis! If the McShame racist/terrorist stuff was going to work here in North Carolina, we would see him ahead consistently by at least 2-5 points. Instead, he is behind 1-7 points. That is great news...for JOHN McCAIN!!!

Matthew H said...

God, I feel like such a shirker. three hours on the phones and two hours scheduled with GOTV. Admittedly, that's 5 hours more than I've spent on any other campaign, but with so many people working so hard it feels like I should be doing more.

Ah well. There's still going to be a part of me that's not just happy that we won, but proud. Cheap at five hours.

LAT said...

You are welcome SCIndie. Again if I can be a total pest and blohard please people read the Girodano piece about PA and the McCAin strategy before going all insane and panicky. Those who panick are doing exactly what McCain wants. As is the media. Up is down, as always!

newsfromOH said...

pa john,

nice pick up

Eric said...

I have a project for someone. Get a list together of Secretaries of State in Battleground state. Repub or Dem and how long they've been there. I have a feeling they have it in their power to steal the state for their party in a close elction if need be per RFK Jr.'s explanation of voter purging

newsfromOH said...

happy b-day nc redhead!

sfergus483 said...

Weird ancient history Pennsylvania electoral history:

In 1932, in a year when FDR won 42 of 48 states, Herbert Hoover somehow won Pennsylvania. I have no idea why (the only other states Hoover won were Maine, NH, and VT, which were almost always GOP then, Connecticut, often GOP, and Delaware.) Dewey rather than Truman won it in 1948.

Just seems sort of oddball - anyway, if McCain wins, it won't be the first time it bucked a winning Dem trend.

assmole said...

hey Sean Quinn you biased ass, answer my question.

EmonOkari said...

Anyone who is for Obama, would most likely WANT the McCain campaign to abandon CO/NM/VA/etc and go for broke in Pennsylvania. With just days remaining, it appears to be a losing strategy. Has McCain polled a lead there even once? In any poll?