When local field organizer Christian Lund took the stage just prior to Joe Biden's appearance on Tuesday night in Marietta, he asked those in the attendant crowd of about 4,000 to look at the sheets in their hands. Each sheet held four names, and each name had a phone number and a bar code for later data scanning. Lund asked the people in the crowd to make four phone calls to this targeted group, and then he demonstrated.
Lund got voicemail. Over the microphone, he left a message informing his phonee about where and when to early vote, as well as where and when the Obama volunteer office was located in town and what it's hours were. After he was finished, it was the crowd's turn. "We even got extra cell tower juice just for tonight" Lund told the crowd, so go ahead and make four quick calls on Barack Obama's behalf. They did.
The other day at Obama's rally in Toledo, the local organizer asked everyone in attendance to (1) early vote; (2) make 40 phone calls or knock 40 doors; and (3) take Election Day off to help the volunteering effort. This is routine practice at every single event the campaign holds, even at Denver's Invesco Field acceptance night speech. The largely Democratic crowd is given concrete, practical and manageable field tasks to accomplish.
The goal is gathering a larger and larger volunteer base. A whole night's shift of phone calls may seem intimidating to a lot of people, particularly introverts, but it's pretty hard to say no to four calls. Cleverly, Obama's campaign reasons that the most difficult part of volunteering is the first four calls or knocks. The first part is always the hardest, particularly for volunteers who've never worked for a campaign before. Once over the comfort threshold, a potential shift volunteer now feels invested in the work.
Here in Marietta, on the Ohio River in the heart of steel country, the Obama organization is as strong as anywhere. Southeast Ohio is the swing area in one of the great swing states. Marietta, Athens, Zanesville, Steubenville, New Philadelphia... these are the places in the southeast counties where Barack Obama needs to perform well in order to carry the state. During our stop in Columbus, Deputy Communications Director Tom Reynolds pointed to the recent Washington Post Ohio poll that showed Obama ahead of John Kerry's performance four years ago in southeast Ohio. Joe Biden's stops in St. Clairsville, Marietta, Athens and Lancaster show how seriously the Obama campaign is taking this region.
Though some very smart people such as Chuck Todd thought Biden's convention speech was uneven, I thought it was pitched to the right emotional level, particularly for steel towns in southeast Ohio where pundits endlessly pointed out that Obama wasn't making inroads during the primaries. Indeed, Marc Ambinder reported that Biden's convention speech "broke the dials" with a steelworker focus group down here when he delivered the line, "Joey, go bloody their nose so that you can walk down the street." And that feels about right, because Biden connected down here.
Though clearly worn from weeks of solid campaigning and long days with multiple stops, Biden spoke to the assembled crowd with gusto. As has been the case for weeks, the dominant topic was the economy.
Look, at the end of the day, there is a fundamental difference between John McCain and Barack Obama, Governor Palin and Joe Biden, and it can be distilled to one thing. How we measure progress in America. Barack Obama and I measure progress in terms of the dignity and respect for the middle class, the working people of America. Whether you have a job. Whether you have the ability to afford health care for your family. Whether or not you can fill your gas tank. Whether or not you can send your kid to college. And whether, whether or not as my dad used to say you can look your kid in the eye and say ‘honey, I promise you, I promise you, it’s going to be okay.’
Well it will be okay with us! We will keep that promise.
Biden got local, talking about his and Obama's support of the Delta Queen. "And folks, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention one thing; Barack Obama reminded me to remind you of. He’s also working to save the Delta Queen. The job security that it generates. That steamboat brings a lot of money here."
Speaking of John McCain's recent economic proposals, Biden joked that McCain had had "what Catholics call an epiphany" about the shift from "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" to acknowledging a serious crisis. "He didn’t all of a sudden acknowledge or realize that the economic policies of the last eight years had driven us into this hole," Biden said. "That the reason why this crisis was occurring was because of the policies supported. John didn’t see the light; John saw the Presidency receding from his grasp."
As for the Republicans, we made every good faith effort to get a story, but in the end they knew and we knew and they knew that we knew that they knew they were running out the clock on us. We stopped into the Columbus HQ on Saturday and spoke with Deputy Communications Director Jason Levine, explained in detail who we were and the story we were looking for -- asking for experienced and first-time Republican volunteers who could educate us and our readers about how the McCain campaign is working on the ground in Ohio.
Levine was cautiously friendly, and told us several times that we should probably be able to get a story, but they wanted to set something up so they could give us volunteers who would be on message. (That, in itself, is a complete contrast to the Obama campaign, who implicitly vests its volunteers with great trust, as they own this grassroots campaign.) After speaking with Levine twice and sending repeated emails, he ran out the clock.
It's fair enough. We're not their biggest priority. They probably assume if they haven't heard of us, how much exposure could photos of their huge phone banks with 40 phones and one lonely caller at their state headquarters three weeks before the election really get?
As for the field offices themselves, we told you about the closed one in Troy. We were ushered out by rent-a-cops in Toledo (the second time I spoke with Levine), and there was a pencil-thin mustachioed rent-a-cop in the HQ where we got that picture.
We'll keep trying in good faith to speak to communications directors and stop into field offices, and if they're fair with us, we'll be fair with them. The problem the McCain folks have is that their offices are empty, and why would you want reporters to do a story on that, or on obviously manufactured volunteer conversations? So, we're not optimistic, but we're not quitting. They'll have to say it to our face.
As we mentioned in the liveblog last night, we stopped in West Virginia yesterday before the debate, so there'll be a Mountaineer State report, and we're at Michelle Obama's speech in Pittsburgh right now.




232 comments
"....there was a pencil-thin mustachioed rent-a-cop in the HQ where we got that picture."
Wait, was the rent-a-cop sporting a pencil thin mustache, or was the rent-a-cop a pencil thin man, and also had a mustache? The way you wrote that it could read either way.
Responding to an earlier thread re: third parties.
Someone made the argument that because third parties "are never going to win", they should be excluded from the debates. Who, then, decides who the "viable" candidates are? The media? Polls? Jesse Ventura, prior to appearing the debates, was barely registering on polls at all - he certainly would have been excluded from the presidential debates under the current criteria - but he was allowed into the gubernatorial debates in MN. And his poll numbers started rising. And he was in the next debate. And his poll numbers rose more. The rest is history - he eventually won, all of which would have been impossible without access to the debates.
With respect to the assertion that it's somehow easy to get on the ballot in enough states to win the presidency - that's just wrong. There are a few states where that's true (I think SC you just need a couple hundred signatures) but other states have notoriously difficult ballot access laws, requiring thousands or tens of thousands of signatures - not an easy task.
Of course, what we really need to do is reform the voting system so that third parties won't split votes and so the process is more democratic and we can avoid the notion of strategic voting altogether. But we'll never see either the Democrats or Republicans really push for that, for reasons which should be obvious.
Also, I don't really agree with Nader's politics, but I believe that he did not and is not running to inflate his ego: there are issues he cares about that the democrats and republicans are not addressing, and he wants to give those issues a voice. Think back to Eugene V. Debs and the issues he raised re: women's suffrage etc.
Maybe Obama's people should just hand out this picture of McCain and be done with it!
Remarkable and kinda crazy. If the elction doesn't paly out the way it should according to all possible data points, something will be fishy. Us Dems are always extremely cautious, but this reporting you're doing is a sure sign of one campaign drubbing the other. You shouldn't be coming across empty campaign offices for McCain in Ohio of all places. If they lose there, the election is over.
Have to say, I was ambivalent about the Biden pick two months ago, but he's changed all that. Go gettem Joey!
PS. Is it really true that Joe the Plumber is related to Charles Keating? Man that McCrypt camp keeps getting spookier and spookier.
"...a pencil-thin mustachioed.."
The Boston Blackie kind?
more good news. as Eric says, I too am cautiously optimistic. It does appear some of the trackers are tightening slightly (prior to the debate.) I'm hoping that McCain's dismal performance last night was the final nail for him.
Crazy McCain
Derek said...
Bush gave the rich a tax cut and nobody on the right bitched about it except McCain. Now Obama wants to set it back to Clinton's level and wants to set taxes for the middle class lower than when Reagon was in Office. Reagon...
Middle class people will give that money back to big busineess anyway, it will just give the state and local governments more money which will help them out a lot. It is a more ditributive way to make all parties benfit. If people have more money then they spend it creating demand for goods which cretes jobs. That is Obamanomics.
October 16, 2008 10:37 AM
I am no copy editor but it would be
"a pencil-thin-mustachioed" if his stache was pencil-thin, no?
"...a pencil-thin mustachioed.."
Snidely Whiplash was in town again?
That empty McCain office picture sends out a thousand messages.
Welcome to the White House, Mr. Obama.
Sean said: "It's fair enough. We're not their biggest priority. They probably assume if they haven't heard of us, how much exposure could photos of their huge phone banks with 40 phones and one lonely caller at their state headquarters three weeks before the election really get?"
I actually lol'd at this. Keep up the work on this great series Sean & Brett!
I suggest Obama do an ad with a picture of Joe and next to it a picture of Sarah palin with some dark music and just one sentence, who do you want a heartbeat way from the oval office.
Hey folks,
look at these McCain tongue juts!
It looks like "Catch me if you can" - starring Barack Obama & John McCain, doesn't it?
I've been addicted for weeks, but am finally posting.
The picture of the nearly empty McCain phone bank in OH gives me hope. Contrast that with the crowd of thousand "phone bankers" and wow. It's a cautious, democrat-whose-tired-of-losing hope. But hope none the less.
Thanks Sean!
nice stuff Sean
I mean there is no doubt there is a huge enthusiasm gap between the two of them at this point. I think that will translate well into the election come November.
I was wondering if McCain was trying to win last night in the debate. The abortion discussion was particularly aimed at the base. But then I realized that this was just McCain w/out any focus or strategy. They just don't really have any understanding of the electorate this election cycle.
McCain says we are winning in Iraq and Obama wants to pull out. People believe that and don't care. They want out too.
McCain says he is a tax and spend liberal. I don't think people either believe that or care. They just want a huge break away from conservative economic policy.
He just doesn't understand that the electorate is fundamentally different than they have been at any time since Reagan won in 1980. The old memes just don't work and that is all they have in their bag.
Speaking of Ohio... Rasmussen will have fresh Ohio numbers out today. Wouldn't be surprised to see Obama fall back a bit there.
Rasmussen will have Oregon #s as well.
You guys must have "just missed" the huge number of phone bankers in the Ohio HQ!!!
The amazing thing is that Obama has built such a powerful ground operation that he doesn't have to do anything to reap the rewards. The 72-hour GOP GOTV isn't going to matter this time!
Anyone know when the Selzer Indiana poll is due out? Thx.
With respect to the assertion that it's somehow easy to get on the ballot in enough states to win the presidency - that's just wrong. There are a few states where that's true (I think SC you just need a couple hundred signatures) but other states have notoriously difficult ballot access laws, requiring thousands or tens of thousands of signatures - not an easy task.
You're quite right. So maybe if you want to see a third party it isn't a good idea to start with the Presidency. You could put up candidates for school board and city council. It's easier to get on the ballot for races like that. Let's say you set a goal to get ten thousand of your supporters elected to positions like that. Then you pick the most talented thousand of those people, and support them for state legislative seats. And after a few years for experience, the most talented 50 run for House and Senate seats or for governorships. And after that you have a bunch of talented politicians with the resources to make a grab for the Presidency.
If you wanted to build a third party, that'd be the way to do it. Of course, it would be a lot easier to run a vanity candidate and then complain about not being invited to the debates.
McCain's body language kept reminding me of a gila monster or iguana - all the tongue flicks and eye batting (although I don't think iguanas blink that much.) A wrinkly old lizard man trying to worm his way into the White House.
I don't know about that antmatic. I think Obama will be leading the rassmussen Ohio poll.
I'm good Joe :). McCain scared me a little last night -- looked like he was about to blow a fuse the whole time :(. (In full disclosure, Obama looked plain sleepy to me) You still jumped ship? :D
Real Joe -- Get back to plumbing! ;-)
Obama moving into WV, and possibly KY and GA and ND! :D
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1851028,00.html
I bet he was wearing a two-tone Ricky Ricardo and sporting an autograph picture of Andy Devine.
stuartwildcat said...
"The amazing thing is that Obama has built such a powerful ground operation that he doesn't have to do anything to reap the rewards. The 72-hour GOP GOTV isn't going to matter this time!"
I think the beauty of Obama's organization is that it will pay long term dividends for Dems around the country.
I hope you guys are enjoying the Steel City and my alma mater, the University of Pittsburgh.
Soldiers and Sailors and the Cathedral of Learning are architecturally beautiful. If you want a great sandwich for lunch, head 3 blocks past the Cathedral and go to Johnny's Place (no relation) on Craig St., about 100 meters up from Craig & Bayard. Otherwise, be sure to try Uncle Sam's Subs or Fuel and Fuddle at Forbes & Oakland Ave.
Tell Michelle: assmole says 'hi'. Should confuse her nicely.
Hey Sean, did you see this from BBC News today? Your 270 Maine post is quoted, and the words are attributed to one 'Nate Silver'. You might want to email them about that. :P
I could go for a Primanti Brothers Deluxe Double for lunch, too bad I'm 4 hours away!
Nate,
I just wanted to tell you that I love you. I'm comfortable with that at this point.
I still think IN is a long shot for Obama
I suspected that McCain's lack of an organization would end up like this.
Selecting Palin fired up the Republicans who supported her. They went to McCain's local offices to volunteer. And the offices either could not handle the sudden influx of people -- or did not exist.
The would-be volunteers lost interest, drifted back to their daily lives, & when the organization belatedly was put into place, there was no one to staff the offices.
McCain is a loner, & does not understand how to organize people.
On the other hand, Obama has organizing experience. Either he -- or one of his senior staffers -- foresaw the problem of explosive growth in volunteers, & they planned for it. That one act has now permanently altered the strategy of political campaigning.
Geoff
This was great Sean. I enjoy reading all of your field reports. Help me someone. I turned the TV on for a few minutes only and there are crowds around Joe's house and he is leaning back giving a press conference and seems to be quite pleased with himself. I did not watch much of it. Just enough to hear that he sounds miles away from where I am on a few issues. Is he really related to Keating? If so why on earth would Mc Cain want that to come up as I am certain it will eventually? Surely they could have found someone out there who would represent there ideas that was not related to a felon or is this just an rumor.
"they wanted to set something up so they could give us volunteers who would be on message. (That, in itself, is a complete contrast to the Obama campaign....)"
This probably has something to do with what kind of volunteers McCain is getting. Because the campaign seems to appeal only to a base of anti-Obama rightists, they have to worry that some of their volunteers might start spouting some "Muslim terrorist" or "not a citizen" BS, or worse (dropping an N-bomb).
...asking for experienced and first-time Republican volunteers who could educate us and our readers about how the McCain campaign is working on the ground in Ohio.
I've heard tell of these hoards of folks affiliated with churches (mainly evangelical) who are the Republican ground game-equivalent of Labor (who are also mainly mobilizing for Obama). Is it that the McCain organization is relying mainly on these groups to mobilize the base and pull the undecideds, and so Levine and other McCain directors can't direct you to them?
Or is it that these groups don't exist at the same levels and fervency that they did for W?
Also, I heard that you were in Cleveland recently. We've got an incredible Obama neighborhood organization. Next time, stay a while, won't you?
So.....Obama is already planning his victory party.....bet the voters really love that.
IBD-obama+3, Gallup-obama+3 and now Ras-Obama+4, all before the debate last night.
The ACORN crap is now just sinking in. If there is one thing Americans is someone or party trying to steal an election by fraud.
Obama was finally pinned to be a big spending, big taxing socialist by Joe the plumber.
Jack-be-nimble said...
"Obama was finally pinned to be a big spending, big taxing socialist by Joe the plumber."
You mean Joe Keating?
http://www.eisenstadtgroup.com/2008/10/15/joe-the-plumber-wurzelbacher-related-to-charles-keating-oops/
I live in Northern California and hearing about all of the "action" in the campaign offices in these battleground states is making me feel like I'm missing the action. I wish I could travel to CO or NV and feel the energy first hand.
Keep up the good work everyone (who is working to get Obama elected)!
Yeah,
And I'm related to Abe Lincoln and Kunte Kinte, what's the difference.
Greatest ad ever.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/90-percent_ad
I hope that it runs everywhere
Greatest ad ever.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/90-percent_ad
I hope that it runs everywhere
Greatest ad ever.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/90-percent_ad
I hope that it runs everywhere
SEAN,
these inside the GOTV ground game stories are examples of wonderful first-person reporting
I always look forward to them, and for your buried messages & photo comps that tell the story
nice appropriate use of the old classic chestnut:
"...we made every good faith effort to get a story, but in the end they knew and we knew and they knew that we knew that they knew [they were running out the clock on us]."
as for some of the Biden sound bite messages:
my elderly mom fell in love with Joe Biden when he said, "Joey, go bloody their nose so that you can walk down the street."
she got choked up & a tear in her eye... BTW, my family lived in Hamilton OH as well as Louisville, Memphis [White Haven] & Buffalo NY when I was very young so she connects to those voters from her past. [They were all mill/transportation town for Pillsbury back in the day...
mom is also german/irsih catholic so she would also appreciate your reference to:
"Biden joked that McCain had had "what Catholics call an epiphany" " - because that was her own experience...
keep up the great reporting & enjoyed your live beer blogging during the debate
counting down the days until we get to read your 'On the Road' reporting from FL - we are going BLUE
To all the conservatives out there. Let's engage in a "redistribution of wealth" discussion.
I understand that your main point is that it's not fair to take money from people who "earn" it and hand it to people who "don't". This is a noble notion but it ignores a very compelling truth: When wealth distribution becomes such that an increasing minority of people control an increasing majority of wealth, the playing field is no longer level, and something has got to be done.
Right now, something like 1% of the people control 20% of the nations wealth. The last time we had as large of a gap between the highest earners and the lowest earners was before the great depression. The only nations where you see those kind of numbers are third world or still developing countries.
If you look at wealth distribution numbers in this country, typically we have prospered the most when the top 1% controlled less than 10% of the nation's wealth.
In the current situation, the middle class is usually the one that gets the raw deal because they pay the greatest portion of their income in taxes. The rich may have a higher marginal tax rate, but that doesn't mean that they don't find ways to lower their taxable income to nothing. (I'm a paralegal in the tax department of a big NYC law firm, I know)
So, yes, when you call something redistribution of wealth, it sounds really bad. Maybe what Obama and some like him are trying to do is to level the playing field. Also, on that subject, the middle class tends to SPEND a greater percentage of their money than the super rich do. So putting more money into their hands in an economy that is driven by CONSUMPTION can only be a good thing.
I've made a complaint, thene, about the wrongful attribution by the BBC journalist. Please everyone do likewise!
Jack-be-nimble said...
So.....Obama is already planning his victory party.....bet the voters really love that.
What the hell are you talking about? If you wanna make stuff up, then the least you could do is add some drama to it. That way, we'd be entertained while reading your fiction.
mark said...
Real Joe -- Get back to plumbing! ;-)
hahahahaha
This election is far from over. 19 days is an eternity in politics. The gap is narrowing and the state polling will reflect that the next few days. IN,MO,MT,NC,ND,NV,OH,WV, and possibly VA will all end up going to McCain-Va is the only hope Obama has in the so called close states. Obama will win IA,MI,MN,NM,PA with CO,FL a pure tossup
"This election is far from over. 19 days is an eternity in politics. The gap is narrowing and the state polling will reflect that the next few days. IN,MO,MT,NC,ND,NV,OH,WV, and possibly VA will all end up going to McCain-Va is the only hope Obama has in the so called close states. Obama will win IA,MI,MN,NM,PA with CO,FL a pure tossup"
Is it just me, or has this post been repeated every day for the last few months, with the time and the swing states being all that changes?
demike, I doubt it. I really doubt it.
More absolutely stunning photos by Brett. To "calm" myself during the debate last night I streamed those photos. The artistry and narrative in those photos is beyond belief.
Thank you so much!
Brett your photos are breathtaking!! The bridge and Mr red beret. Awesome. This series continues to keep outdoing itself and my favorite work aside from Nate's numbers. I love seeing people and putting faces, many different kinds, to the stories. Truly great stuff. Cannot wait for WV!!!
Many, many thanks.
<3
DEMIKE said...
This election is far from over. 19 days is an eternity in politics. The gap is narrowing and the state polling will reflect that the next few days. IN,MO,MT,NC,ND,NV,OH,WV, and possibly VA will all end up going to McCain-Va is the only hope Obama has in the so called close states. Obama will win IA,MI,MN,NM,PA with CO,FL a pure tossup
Now that Demike has issued his proclomation, the election is all but decided. Thanks for sharing us the insights from your crystal ball. I am curious though, what makes you such an expert on the future?
DEMIKE said...
"This election is far from over. 19 days is an eternity in politics. The gap is narrowing and the state polling will reflect that the next few days."
Why bother polling anymore, campaigns should just hire DEMIKE since he has his finger on the pulse of the American electorate around the country.
CO is not a pure tossup.
VA is not a tossup.
The last few days have not reflected a narrowing. They have either been pro-Obama movement or no change.
19 days is not an eternity in politics. 19 days is end game and unless something MAJOR happens the election is going to Obama. And by major I don't mean a terrorist attack, but Obama actually committing said act. And even then he still might win the EC.
Obama isn't resting on his laurels either:
"For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky and think this is all set, I just [have] two words for you: New Hampshire," the Democratic presidential nominee said during a fundraiser breakfast in New York. "You know I've been in these positions before where we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked. And so that's another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me."
Great photos!
To all of you who are misinformed about ACORN (jack-be-nimble included)
ACORN ran a registration drive that registered over a million people to vote. Most young, black, democrat, or all three.
Some people employed by ACORN, filled out a bunch of phoney registration cards and handed them in.
ACORN's procedure has always been to separate the voter registration cards into three piles. One pile of totally legit, verifiable voter registrations. Another pile of cards that may have something wrong like missing information. Then they a third pile, of ones that are very porblematic, and probably fraudulent.
What most people don't understand is that ACORN does not have the right to throw away ANY voter registration cards, they have to turn ALL of them in to the state election board.
The state election board's job is to then verify voter registrations and toss out any incomplete or fraudulent ones, which a lot of times they're too lazy to do. What ends up happening is that later on, the election boards come back to ACORN and complain about the bad voter registration cards, even though ACORN clearly marks them as suspect when they submit them.
So it's very important to distinguish the difference between ACORN committing fraud, and it's employees committing fraud against it. Hope that clears it up for the people who didn't know.
I am no expert, it is just my opinion, like every other post is on this site.
dude... if "Joe the slummer" has the near the resources to buy a business that will net him 250K a year I have no issue with him being taxed for it.
And, it looks more and more as if 'Joe' was hardly an "undecided", so if you want to pin your hopes on a rich republican plant I encourage you to go ahead and do so.
Jack be simple,
ACORN appeals only to the ignorant base as yourself, to have an excuse why they are going to lose big. If you had a clue you would realize that every registration must be turned in, even if it says Mickey Mouse. ACORN actually flagged 5,000 registrations themselves. If people fill out registrations falsely to get paid they have to turn the form in by law. Since these false registered people don't exist their is no voter fraud. But, your ilk use this as a nice and false distraction to keep the attention off the RepubliCon yearly voter suppression and caging efforts. Even Joe the plumber, who is looking more and more like a republican douche plant could be purged as his name is spelled wring in the Ohio voter files. See you side in 2006 and is attemoting this year to purge hundreds of thousands of people because of things like your name was Anne instead of Ann, though everything else matched or one database showed a middle initial and another didn't. So some 8/hr worker makes a typo and RepubliCon scum want to purge them b/c your side thinks it will eliminate more Dems than repub b/c of the Dem voter ID advantage.
"The gap is narrowing"
uhm where? what? you mean WV, MT and GA maybe, yeah I agree :)
assmole said...
Tell Michelle: assmole says 'hi'. Should confuse her nicely.
----------------------------------
Please take a photo. I would pay to see the WTF look on her face when you say that.
McCain has gained 4 points in the last week in Rasmussen's national tracker.
DEMIKE said...
"This election is far from over. 19 days is an eternity in politics. The gap is narrowing and the state polling will reflect that the next few days. IN,MO,MT,NC,ND,NV,OH,WV, and possibly VA will all end up going to McCain-Va is the only hope Obama has in the so called close states. Obama will win IA,MI,MN,NM,PA with CO,FL a pure tossup"
Thank you for this wonderful insight. Since you are the top political mind in the country I will ignore the mountain of data that says you are a fu*%ing idiot and prepare for President McCain.
I just want to thank hurn0003 for cutting through the intentional obfuscation on the last thread about tax policy. Nice to see someone actually read the plan before proclaiming their judgment on it.
"McCain has gained 4 points in the last week in Rasmussen's national tracker."
Cherrypicking. Arbitrary endpoints.
Look them up if you honestly want to learn something about applied statistics.
That Pennsylvania tracker has gone from Obama +4 to Obama +16 in the 21 days of it's existence.
I'm sure Joe the Fake Plumber will bring it back though, right?
demike -- Obama continues to be at or over 50%, some late deciders are deciding on McCain, but until Obama starts dropping bleow 50% in Rasmussen's outlier poll, there's nothing to read into a McCain comeback.
Thanks Jeff, I'm glad someone finally explained the situation. Its just a shame that the MEDIA didn't bother to do so.
You gotta love the Repubs. They are saying that ACORN is breaking the law because they are following the law. Unbelievable.
DEMIKE said...
"I am no expert, it is just my opinion, like every other post is on this site."
This is one of the problems with the world today: the idea that all opinions are created equal. They are not.
Opinions that are based upon facts are much more valid that those that fly in the face of all evidence, such as your just did.
I could say that there is no such thing as dogs and that is my opinion. Of course I would be wrong.
So yes you are entitled to your opinion, but yours is less valid than many others on this site because your flies in the face of all evidence before us.
Additionally that the polls have been tightening recently is not an opinion, it can actually be measured and it shows that you are wrong.
So in summation as far as your opinion goes: FAIL.
Aparently, Demikey don't like it.
Jow the Plumber would actually currently get a tax CT under Obama . . . nice, LOL
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=6047360&page=1
And yet Obama is still at 50%, which means that every remaining undecided would have to break for McCain.
Thanks for clarifying Demike. Though usually, when someone is giving their opinion, they use words like "I believe" or "IMHO", both of which were absent from your post.
cut, that is :)
bryen,
Joe the plumber should pay his taxes. He has a tax lien against him. Joe the plumber is a Republican(possible plant) who misprepesented himself originallt b/c he doesn;t even make 250,000/yr so would not have a tax increase. He better watch out as the RepubliCon purge might kick him off the voter rolls as his name is spelled wrong according to OH voter files.
hurn0003 said...
This is one of the problems with the world today: the idea that all opinions are created equal. They are not.
-----------------------------------
Correctomundo!
Somewhere along the line:
Reality = Batshit Crazy
with Batshit Crazy being portrayed as the "correct" reality.
Joe the Plumber is also not registered to vote.... oops
I am a registered independent in DE. I don't really support either candidate, as I believe that both of them have glaring weaknesses. I am however, supporting McCain because he is the lesser of two evils. Either way, we are screwed
Shorter DEMIKE:
I don't support either candidate. I support McCain. Life sucks. I should go off myself.
lou dobbs, what the fuck ever
...but in the end they knew and we knew and they knew that we knew that they knew they were running out the clock on us.
A little tough but I get it!
DEMIKE, I'm relieved to know that you live in a safe Democratic state. Ta.
demike is a lou dobbs independent
DEMIKE said...
"I am a registered independent in DE. I don't really support either candidate, as I believe that both of them have glaring weaknesses. I am however, supporting McCain because he is the lesser of two evils. Either way, we are screwed"
Most would say that voting for a candidate and actively hoping they win constitutes "support." But those would just be the people who actually believe that words mean things.
nkStain said...
"McCain has gained 4 points in the last week in Rasmussen's national tracker."
Cherrypicking. Arbitrary endpoints.
Look them up if you honestly want to learn something about applied statistics.
----------------------------
Also, correct me if I am wrong, things tightened slightly before each debate then went back toward Obama.
However, McCain has McJoe Blows the "Plumber" this time which is definitely a possible game changer.
Or, NOT.
"ACORN ran a registration drive that registered over a million people to vote. Most young, black, democrat, or all three."
The only reason that the McCain campaign is interested in ACORN is because they want TV media to cover the group - which is made up of poor black folks registering other poor black folks to vote. Then they connect Obama to ACORN, which makes Obama the candidate of poor black folks, not the candidate of the white middle class (as Obama has so ably positioned himself in this election). The "voter fraud" issue is almost irrelevant, as no republicans have even attempted a explanation or accusation as to how any fraudulant votes would actually be cast. All this "Who is the REAL Obama?" rhetoric is supposed to lead white voters to the answer that the real Obama is the candidate of poor, inner city black people.
"I don't really support either candidate".... "I am however, supporting McCain "
Feel a little confused? Schizophrenic?
Maybe if you based your "opinions" on some facts you could break out of your confusion; instead, you seem to be trying to spread your confusion to others. That isn't really a great strategy for overcoming your disease.
Wait... Joe the Plumber is an actual guy? I'm confused. I thought he was a certain demographic McCain/Palin was targeting to set examples by and feel "connected" to voters... like old news Joe six pack. How the hell did he come to be an actual person...?
hurn003
"So yes you are entitled to your opinion, but yours is less valid than many others on this site because your flies in the face of all evidence before us."
Yep.:)
...here's somrthing, unlike 2004 when Electoral-Vote.com had day to day swings between GWB and JK this time they have shown about 3-4 weeks of consistent BO leads of between 275 - 300+ EVs, if you go back to the "this day in 2004" function and change the url to Oct16, Oct17, Oct18 all the way to Nov02 etc you see Bush and Kerry swapped state polls and EV leads like crazy.
For a few days WI, MI & PA were red and for a while NJ was a draw etc etc and JK's leads in 'red states' were razor thin 1% most of the time.
Yeah look, picking 1 poll out of a daily 8 or 9 is a bit selective even old Zogby had Obama up a bit more yesterday or today.
If things go arse over tit for BO it will be him doing it, not McCain.
"But those would just be the people who actually believe that words mean things."
Pfffft. Words. You know who uses words? The New York Liberal Times.
'nuff said.
Re: Joe the Plumber
it is also appearing more likely that Joe Wurzelbacher was most likely a plant -and a bad one at that as more background on him is discovering
plus Mac got his name wrong btw
just like the Judge Breyer mistaken accusation & other 'erratic' charges combined with those crazy / scary / angry faces when Mac was clealry lying & visibly tempermental
did you see what the experts who analyzed his body language, visual cues & speech patterns ???
think John needed a good nap or something...
and what was that little 'dance' Mac did across the stage right when the debate ended - WTF !!!
inkstain:
damn you got me there. lol.
Demike, fair enough but then you don't mind having a potential anti-democracy, pro-seccesionist theocrat next in line then should JM not last the course?
Obama even wins in googlefight.
/snark.
DEMIKE can you substantively defend McCain without invoking an attack on Obama?
Taxes
Health Care
Abortion
Economy
Temperament
Judgment
Foreign policy
I honestly don't see what true undecideds would see in McCain. He seems so... erratic and prone to bad decision making. Now, if you are just anti-Obama, or a social conservative then yeah, I don't agree with you, but understand why you would support McCain.
It appears Joe the Plumber is actually registered - his first name is actually Samuel - at one point he was registered with the extremist Natural Law Party.
DCM in FL said...
"Re: Joe the Plumber
it is also appearing more likely that Joe Wurzelbacher was most likely a plant -and a bad one at that as more background on him is discovering"
I doubt he was a plant. He just appears to be a very ignorant GOPer who clearly doesn't understand the tax code.
He doesn't make 250K+ a year, he is hoping to buy a business for 250-280K and will/does make considerably less than that. Turns out Obama offers him considerably more tax relief than would McCain, not that he would ever listen to that.
I knew that no plumber was making 250K+ per year.
DEMIKE said...
McCain has gained 4 points in the last week in Rasmussen's national tracker.
October 16, 2008 11:24 AM
@DEMIKE
if you are not living in a bubble you should know that candidates must take 270 EV by winning the race state-to-state and not nationally.
So it does not mean a thing if even McCain get close to Obama Nationally.
Otherwise in 2000 Gore was president over Bush ,because Gore won te national vote in 2000.
(and right now the whole world wouldn't be in this pain in the ass's situation...)
Got me ?????
OK.
Now,look at that map in the upper right corner of this site...
DEMIKE said...
I am a registered independent in DE. I don't really support either candidate, as I believe that both of them have glaring weaknesses. I am however, supporting McCain because he is the lesser of two evils. Either way, we are screwed.
---------------------------------
My perception:
Not voting for the scary black man.
Nothing, repeat, nothing is "evil" about Obama.
Or, do you want to clarify what you don't like about him?
I agree with you on one aspect:
We are screwed.
Due to the shitstorm that the party in power has rained down on us in the last eight years (which accelerate from the Reagan startup 30 years ago). So go ahead reward them again with for more years.
Joe The Plumber isn't a plant. His name is Samuel J Wurzelbacher, not Joseph Wurzelbacher.
The guy that DailyKos dug up isn't the same guy.
He is a registered Republican who voted in the primary. He did, however, not pay his taxes last year.
can someo0ne explain to me why say the cbs poll has obama up by fourteen nationally yet the daily polls sho what four or five?
I dunno, I think it would be highly educational to have one of those interviews they set up. You know, just for contrast's sake.
@livemild
Daily trackers vary from 4 or 5 points on the low end, to 14 points on the high end, depending on the pollster. Some have Republican bias, some have Democrat bias. Some are trusted, some not so much.
The average is around 8.
This site is predicting a 6.1% actual vote difference.
MN Senate Polling Graph
Final Debate: Live Analysis
Obama 361, McCain 177
CNU Virginia poll.
Bama 49
Mac 43
Mike said: "Joe The Plumber isn't a plant. His name is Samuel J Wurzelbacher, not Joseph Wurzelbacher."
Yeah, but you gotta admit that Republicans + plumbers + dirty tricks has a certain nostalgic ring to it. Aren't McCain and Gordon Libby palling around? (Irony lives!)
"I knew that no plumber was making 250K+ per year."
I'm sure that there are some people who own good-sized plumbing businesses who make more than $250k per year. One plumbing business in the KC area reports $5 million in annual sales...I'm sure the owner clears more than $250k of that in profit.
deMike said...
>>I am no expert, it is just my opinion, like every other post is on this site.
Nicely put.
I have to say it really bothers me that posters get jumped on if they dare to suggest the race isn't over yet.
DeMike's initial statement seems valid - I don't disagree with any of his projections (yeah, but what do I know).
Let's not be as intolerant as the other side
Since this blog post from Nate and Sean regards Ohio, it should be noted that mathematically Ohio and Nevada are the only two potential tipping points for Obama where the new registration advantage from 2004 to 2008 for Dems exceed the amount Kerry lost by. Catch my meaning? If McCain simply duplicates Bush's vote from 2004, he will have a good chance to hold onto most, if not all of Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana. It's close, but Nevada and Ohio are not. Nevada is a small state, with a small electorate. MCcain could win it with superior strategy and turnout the vote efforts in a close election. Ohio is their delabreaker. They can't win th election without it and they can't win (McCain). It's the evidence the Defense attorney can't see overcoming in a trial.
I can go over the math in the other states that McCain can win, if you all have any question as to where I'm getting this from. But, Ohio is the one that matters most. Let's look at it.
666,000 newly registered voters since 2004. Over 2/3 are Dems. OVer 1/3 are in Cleveland and likely 90%= Dem.
2/3 Dem = 444,000 new dems
1/3 not Dem = 222,000 Pubs
444,000-222,000= 222,000
If 60% vote, this would be low turnout for newly registered.
0.6 X 222,000 = net gain for Dems
= 133,200
McCain's ground game/turnout efforts is very inferior to Bush's in 2004. To expect to get all of the Bush vote or more from 2004 is unreasonable. Ohio was the Bush campaign in 2004's best effort and has not been matched in 2008 by McCain.
Bush won by 119,000 by maxing Ohio for the Republicans.
Obama has gained at least a net 133,200 Dem voters. This is low-balling it.
The only way fr McCain to win the election is to win Ohio and the only way to win Ohio is to suppress the Dem vote and steal it in places like Cleveland. The more you know!!! Help stop this if you can. The Pubs will stop at nothing. They pretend ACORN is relevant and it's not. They're going around the Dem GOv and Sec. of state to the Republican judges they can find. They will cause chaos and turmoil in the precincts that are heavily Democratic to suppress votes. If they can't stop a large % from voting, they can cause long lines to get people to go home. This is their strategy because it's their only hope. They used it in OHio in 2004. They'll darn sure use it again this time. Ohio voters, vote early. Anyone that can effect this for the better, help anyway you can. The Secretary of State and Governor are with us, but they're only 2 people.
I think Joe the Plumber talked publicly to Obama and then the mcSame camp jumped on him. It's fake though because buying a business for $250,000 does NOT earn you $250,000 per year. Your lucky if you make $50,000.
@RWD
That guy is a "plumbing company owner" not a "plumber"
Its fascinating to me that pundits claim it was McCain's best performance, and yet EVERY poll I have seen seems to make Obama the winner by more than either of the first two debates. I think pundits are more interested in the horse race, voters are interested in the issues. Obama won the issues, maybe McCain won the horserace in the debate? But that wasn't terribly relevant.
HURN
watch & see what else comes out later today about that guy.
did you see his 'interviews' tthis morning with the Today show as well as at his home with local news reporters ?
his name isn't even 'joe' it is samuel...
his considers himself to be a southerner & proud of it - and could only give a back-handed half-hearted OK to living in Toledo OH
he claims he speaks for 'many' people & hates social security with a passion, and like McCain
his business dealings are questionable
he is/was looking for attention & got this 15 seconds of infamy - but just like with Palin, burn bright at first viewing then watch him fizzle as the truth comes out
IMHO, it will be revealed that he is not what he claims, and his confrontation with Obama was intentional & staged for a partisan purpose
that is OK, except that Mac picked up that dirty football & threw yet another Hail Mary pass into the teeth of the Obama defense
watch, it will backfire - and already did since both McCain during the debate & now 'joe' have over-exposed this comman-man story
------------------------------------
BUT - Obama can also go over-board with those common touches as it were...
he was just giving a stump speech in NH now & went back to that tired old 'Pie shop' story from earlier in the week
it wasn't good after the first time, and now it sounds even more contrived as an analogy of the years of Bush malefeance. overused...
Barack, get a new story - or go back to your 'roots' family tales...
Maybe our Joe should call up McCain's plant - Joe "the plumber"?
WHO IS JOE THE PLUMBER? - since he's interjected himself INTO this election apparently under false pretenses, this should be a priority, don't you think?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/02217/845
http://justrumormills.blogspot.com/2008/10/joe-plumber.html
Joe the Plumber, the star of tonight's debate, may have a very interesting connection to John McCain. In fact, Joe the Plumber (Joe Wurzelbacher) of Cincinnati, Ohio may be related to one Robert Wurzelbacher of Cincinnati, Ohio, who happens to be Charles Keating's son-in-law.
Robert Wurzelbacher was implicated in the Keating 5 scandal, and sentenced to 40 months in prison in 1993. Wurzelbacher is also a huge Republican donor.
So, let's find out a bit about Joe Wurzelbacher. First, he seems to own a few companies:
Joseph Wurzelbacher (Joseph Wurzelbacher Cnstr Co)
12172 Stone Mill Rd, Cincinnati, OH 45251-4134
JCC INVESTMENTS INC in the Investors, N.E.C. industry in CINCINNATI, OH. This company currently has approximately 1 to 5 employees and annual sales of Under $500,000.
Location Information Edit
12172 STONE MILL RD
CINCINNATI, OH 45251
Wurzelbacher Painting
12148 Stone Mill Rd, Cincinnati, OH 45251-4134 (Map)
Wurzelbacher Brothers
(513) 385-6666
11260 Colerain Avenue,
Cincinnati, OH 45252
Specialties:
REPAIR OF SEPTIC TANKS
Phone: (513) 385-5264
Ok, so the first three are all on the same road. The last one, a few minutes away.
Already, I'm a bit suspicious of this guy. He claims to be a plumber looking to buy a small business. Yet, he seems to own quite a few already. Are we sure this guy is middle class?
Now, what about Robert Wurzelbacher?
Well, to start with he's from Milford, OH, right outside of Cincinnati. Next, according to Newsmeat, he owns "Cincinnati Dowel & Wood":
WURZELBACHER, ROBERT M
MILFORD, OH 45150
THE CINCINNATI DOWEL & WOOD PRODUCT
And where is this company located?
135 Oak St
Mt Orab, OH 45154
Which is, you guessed it, right outside of Cincinnati, OH. And, this company seems to be in a very similar business. Joe's a plumber, painter, and all-around home repairman.
Robert owns a wood company. Both have the last name Wurzelbacher, live and work in and around Cincinnati, OH.
Do I have proof that the two are related? No. But something sure as hell doesn't add up. At the very least, this guy, who now seems to be a hero on the right, does not seem to be the 'average joe' he claims to be.
And If you haven't yet read the interview with Joe the Plumber, please do. This guy is no undecided voter, he's clearly a McCain guy.
I was a our local Obama campaign post last night. It's not the big office, just the local post for 3 neighboring communities. A reporter for a small news outlet showed up unexpectedly.
Nate and Sean have demonstrated time and again how tight the access is at McCain outposts while the Obama camps have been much more open. As this reporter came in, I held my breath. Our field organizer said he had to check in higher up the food chain about allowing the reporter access. . .
Happily, the all clear was given so the reporter was invited in to meet the local group. Obama has truly run an amazing campaign.
@Eric
You are assuming this election follows Bush and Kerry numbers. You aren't taking into account higher Democratic enthusiasm for Obama which will both drive up Obama's support among the party and draw more people out to the polls, or 8 years of disgust and mistrust built up against any and all Republicans.
Comparing Obama/McCain to Bush/Kerry is like apples and oranges.
aRWD said...
"I'm sure that there are some people who own good-sized plumbing businesses who make more than $250k per year. One plumbing business in the KC area reports $5 million in annual sales...I'm sure the owner clears more than $250k of that in profit."
Plumber does not equal plumbing contractor. My father used to be a plumber, he is now a plumbing contractor. That isn't a plumbing position it is a business owner or management position. The guys who make 250K+ never actually touch a wrench during their work day.
Let's not gang up on poor DEMIKE... The guy knows he's cherrypicking the numbers.
On another note, I am curious to know why you're supporting McCain, DEMIKE. I don't mean to be prosecutorial... I'm just wondering.
I'm from Ohio where we have early voting. Obama has to win here because I cannot handle another devastation like we had in 2004!
Last week I took my 80 yr old Mom & my 3 kids (who were able to vote for POTUS for the 1st time!) to the Job Center in Akron to give 5 early votes to Obama! I was happily surprised because the place was quite crowded.
What does everyone think about The Boston Globe enthusiastically endorsing Obama for President this week?!!! The news keeps getting better everyday!
@syncbox
That's been debunked.
His name is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher, not Joseph Wurzelbacher. He is from where he claims he is from.
He is not the same guy that the diarist at DailyKos is claiming him to be.
No one in their right mind would sell a plumbing business that profits over $250,00 per year for only $250,000. It's bullsh@t. He's a plant.
"Plumber does not equal plumbing contractor. My father used to be a plumber, he is now a plumbing contractor. That isn't a plumbing position it is a business owner or management position. The guys who make 250K+ never actually touch a wrench during their work day."
But wasn't Joe's "story" something along the lines of, I don't want to become a company owner because I'll have to pay taxes?
As part owner of a small business myself, I can't imagine anyone saying "let's not expand our business, we might end up in a higher tax bracket." The whole point is to make more money. Being in a higher tax bracket is a damn good problem to have.
"Its fascinating to me that pundits claim it was McCain's best performance"
Total bullcrap. Verbally, McCain was much better in the first debate and worse in the second one. Visually, last night was his worst performance.
Obama has performed relatively poorly in 2 out of the 3 debates (he was really good in the town hall one), but McCain has been so horrific it doesn't really matter.
@2much2lose
He never said $250k in profits. He said $250k purchase price.
Becky Sharp:
All opinions aren't equally as valid. He made claims that ran against verifiable fact. You are not entitled to your opinion free from criticism/fact checking.
If you don't want an opinion criticized, I would suggest the proper strategy is to keep it to yourself.
I don't mind a well thought out opinion that runs counter to mine, but this is some McCain supporter who is making a claim that is false. I will call someone on that every time.
Great CNU poll for Bam, their last poll had McCain up by 9
For the sake of irony, I have to inform you all that:
Empty McCain Offices are good news... for John McCain.
Losing the debate by 2:1 was good news, for John McCain.
And planting Joe the Plumber and then beating Joe's name to pulp despite the fairly obvious, inevitable discovery that Joe isn't an independent, has ties to old buddy Charles Keating (you couldn't invent spin that nasty), has a tax lien against him and is for the dissolution of Social Security. All that is good news... For John McCain.
The party is not over. There is much work to do. But Mr. Obama is soon to answer to Mr. President.
RWD:
The point I was making is McCain tried to portray this guy as a hardworking plumber who was going to be taxed out of his ability to buy a business.
Plumbers don't make 250K per year, it just doesn't happen.
Plumbing contractors (business owners) certainly can make that much and more. But that is like calling someone a fast food worker when they own a string of McDonalds.
It turns out that Joe just doesn't understand tax policy, but then again neither does McCain.
The Marietta/Parkersburg WV area was one of the areas both campaigns had to hit.
Word on the street is that Obama/Biden are deploying into Kentucky now? Wow. I actually think the tri-state area (the Huntington, WV metro area that includes part of southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky) was one they should have been in all along.
And since Kentucky has voted for every Presidential winner for a while, he'd be screwed if he didn't pull off a win. ;)
Less surprisingly, they're also putting more work into WV now.
Gallup
49-43
51-45
49-47
Joe the plumber is not Joe six pack, he is Joe "six figures" and whether understand it or not, he will do better if the economy is humming. More new contruction and more remodels for him to "plumb".
So for Joe, who seems to be in the top 5% of earners, paying a bit more in taxes (really it's just going back to the rates of the 90's - 36% up to 39%) so that we can prime the economic pump (investment in our auto makers, solar panel makers, small businesses, etc) will make a revived ecomony that maybe let's him make double what he makes!
Good for you Joe! And good for America!
Paul
@hurn0003
OK I misread his initial post - I thought he said those states would go to Obama with the others toss ups
Nevermind - he's a dufous
@bryen193
I was busy entering data for Obama's campaign during the debate so I only had the auditory portion to go on for my initial reaction. Based on that, as absurdly partisan as I am, I thought McCain did a pretty good job, much better than I anticipated. Obama was so cool that, listening alone, I drifted. Kind of like listening to a yoga mantra . . .
When I had completed the data entry, I replayed my DVR and was stunned by how much my opinion changed when visuals were added. Obama's apparent earnestness kept my interest, while McCain (at least after the first 30 minutes) looked freakishly unhinged.
I can understand how some people, who missed a lot of the visual by blogging or something, could view McCain as having a stronger performance than others who were struck by the negative intensity that McCain exuded
> McCain is a loner, & does not
> understand how to organize
> people.
>
> On the other hand, Obama has
> organizing experience. Either
> he -- or one of his senior
> staffers -- foresaw the problem
> of explosive growth in
> volunteers, & they planned for
> it.
How ironic that "community organizing", used as a point of ridicule against Obama throughout the campaign, will turn out to be one of his greatest strengths and a major contributor to his increasingly-likely win.
After the smoke clears and the daily sausage-grinding of governance resumes, who do you think would be more effective? The maverick or the organizer? I detest Karl Rove's divisive and destructive ends, but give him credit for being a master organizer. He may have met his match this time.
Events will likely drive the political agenda far more than campaign promises, but I continue to be quietly impressed by Obama's competence. Assuming he wins, I hope that if nothing else, he follows through on governing strongly from the center. It would be a true transformation and something the country so badly needs.
The current gallup usage of 3 polls is confusing me. But basically 6 point lead. Just as Nate has it right now. I'd prefer more, but actually 6 points gives Obama a fairly handy win.
New Zogby Interactive polls that are surprisingly not entirely implausible:
VA O52 M44
PA O52 M40
NM O51 M44
MO O50 M44
NV O48 M47
CO O48 M47
FL O48 M47
IN M49 O44
NC O50 M46
NH O48 M43
OH M50 O45
Overall, they are more favorable to McCain than other polls, especially in OH and CO.
Wow, those Zogby Interactive polls actually look accurate. O_o
Mike said...
@Eric
You are assuming this election follows Bush and Kerry numbers. You aren't taking into account higher Democratic enthusiasm for Obama which will both drive up Obama's support among the party and draw more people out to the polls, or 8 years of disgust and mistrust built up against any and all Republicans.
Comparing Obama/McCain to Bush/Kerry is like apples and oranges.
I think you are missing my point. I'm not suggesting that Obama will not win the 8 or so battleground states that went Bush last time (Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana). I'm simply saying that if this election comes down to a tipping point , where one stated decides it, it should be Ohio. Colorado and north carolina for example are two states where the Dem voter registration advantage is about equal to the margi of victory for Bush in 2004. So, if Obama has a better turnout from voters that were registered in 2004 than Kerry did, then he'll probably win those states and we can all be happy in an Obama landslide. I think there's about a 70% chance this is a good prediction and likely outcome. Here's my concern. Let's say McCain closes well and the election is in the balance. He's able to do a great job at the end and hold onto the swing states that could give the elction to OBama. If McCain can hold Ohio he's got a shot, maybe 20% or so. If he doesn't, his chance is probably less than 1%. That's a battle that needs a lot of attention from the Obama supporters/camp.
My guess is that if just the voters in 2004 in Ohio vote this time, the election will be almost a dead-heat. Bush won by 119,000 votes in Ohio, but this was the state where his ground game and voter suppression were stronger than any other state. McCain probably can't match that. you combine that with new voters for Obama and his ground game and the economy, McCain is screwed in Ohio. However, it's close enough to where with voter suppression, if the other states go his way, he'd probably only lose Ohio by 2-3 points. He can make that up by destroying the voting prcess in heavily Democratic precincts. I'm sure some folks out there understand what I'm saying even if i'm not explaining it well. Can anyone back me up on this?
The tracking polls are tightening back up. I don't see how the dynamic of the race has changed much over the past week, so I can only assume this is the typical pre-election tightening. Plus R-leaning independents coming back to McCain now that the stock market is in some way stabilized.
Interesting that Obama's campaign simultaneously claims the internals are closer than the public polls, and is expanding into West Virginia. One of the two of those is a feint.
A 5-6 point lead is an electoral landslide.
After an initial post-debate bounce I expect the race to settle on 4-6 points and the final result to be in that range. Regardless, both campaigns aren't even looking at nat'l polls, at this stage it's all about state polls.
Gallup is all pre-date.
Kos still has race +11 in their tracker.
Zogby (LOL) Interactive gets it "right" with the stopped watch phenomenon.
^^ Wow.
However, the path to 270 is still solid for Obama even if we just give him the usual 264+VA.
And the Mizzou bellwether continues to look like it finally locked into place.
Empty campaign offices!
Let me get this right. McCain abandoned his bipartisan moderate stance, and chose a hard line anti-abortionist to shore up the base & energise Rep GOTV.
It would appear that the devil bought McCain's soul for the usual price - absolutly nothing.
Have you done the research on Samuel Joe Wurzelbacher?
He apparently owns 4 companies, has no "plumber" license, isn't registered to vote AND isn't paying taxes on those companies.
Oh, yeah. And he may be related to Robert Wurzelbacher... son-in-law of Charles Keating.... yeah, THAT Keating. Robert also owns a company in the Cincinnati, OHIO area.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/No_vetting_for_Joe.html?showall
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/02217/845
http://justrumormills.blogspot.com/2008/10/joe-plumber.html
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/NEWS09/810160418
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Joe_the_Plumber_No_new_taxes__and_no_old_oneseither.html?showall
Republicans should enjoy this final day of "tightening", because Obama's final debate bounce starts tomorrow. =)
Seriously piss-poor timing for McCain to gain a point or two. It's inconcievable Obama won't jump into double digits over the next three days.
That's not to say these national trackers aren't full of shit.
Actually, I'm starting to think the these pollsters are gonna start rigging these trackers. If Obama is comfortably in the lead, they become irrelevant, just like the MSM who basically declared McCain the comeback kid last night...that is, before the people who were actually watching the debate said Obama won by a landslide.
Does Zogby get more reasonable as he gets closer to the election? Nothing really to argue about in the state polling. Virginia continues to look like an easier pickup than Colorado for Obama.
Also, here is a link to the CNU Virginia poll:
http://universityrelations.cnu.edu/news/2008/10_16_08poll.html
Their likely voter screen is extremely tight - only people who voted in 2007 or 2006 are counted. This poll probably undercounts Obama's lead.
Zobgy's "interactive" polling method is absurd no matter how close to election day it is.
And while these results may be plausible by ZI standards...is Obama really up 6 in Mo but only 1 in Co?
I've noticed Obama tends to track down a point or two on the actual debate night. Too many Democrats watching the debate to be polled? Hmmm.
Trevor, you're exactly right, what we need off that list is VA, PA, NM, NH. I'm still pretty frustrated how long it's been since either Obama or Biden visited CO. VA and CO are the most likely to put Obama over the top in the electoral college.
I'm not a concern troll, but today's Rasmussen does have me slightly worried
I don't like those numbers
can someone reassure me please?
This will go down to the wire - we still have the bradley effect.
That being said, it's fucking insane how McCain gains anything with these 2-3% soft-headed morons who change their opinion daily, either based on the markets, or smears and outright lies. I mean, McCain surely set a world record for lying his ass off last night.
markedman said...
I'm not a concern troll, but today's Rasmussen does have me slightly worried
I don't like those numbers
can someone reassure me please?
McCain Surge !!!
Mike, I know. That's exactly my point. Joe will qualify for the Obama tax break. So McCain was talking nonsense trying to make it seem like Joe would be taxed more.
@Eric,
Bush had a massive voter suppression effort in Cuyahoga County in 2004 (that's Cleveland). They sent thousands of white guys in suits into minority neighborhoods. The Dems were caught kind of flat-footed by this, having to scramble right before election time to gather up enough "challengers" to challenge the Rep challengers.
This time around, Cuy Cty is ready for the challengers. The suppression effort didn't yield major results last time, although the provisional voting procedure was a huge clusterf*#k. That procedure has been streamlined this go round.
Additionally, the courts in Cuyahoga County will not be a good suppression vehicle for the Reps. The federal bench here is EXCELLENT. Very bright, very pragmatic, very moderate. The state court (should they try some state law challenge) is a non-starter because the state court here couldn't be more Democrat if it tried--not to mention they're all elected and "suppressed voters" wouldn't be a charge they'd like to face during the next election cycle . . .
Even in a worst case scenario, if the polls are clogged by challengers galore, the courts will likely order the polls to stay open AND, worst case again, there will be more provisional ballots to count.
Still, every voter has to show ID to get a ballot. Drivers license plus name on voter logs, gosh, seems like it complies with fed voting law to me . . .
Markedman, Obama is still at 50%...so even if McCain ticks up a little it's not that big a deal. Also, from Rassmussen "Obama has now enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-one straight days".
Pretty stable.
Anyone noticed how strange Biden's eyes have looked lately (like in the picture for this thread). Some say it comes from botoxing the wrinkles in his forehead.
Last night, I thought McCain looked oddest when saying Good Job to Obama at the end.
Indiana's updated projection makes sense now... but could you explain how Maine's projection is so solidly pro-Obama? The projection seems to exceed the that of the polling data...
At first I was going to discount any move towards McCain due to you know evidence to the contrary like Zogby and even IBD moving towards Obama... but after Gallup I think there was some move towards McCain due to anticipation from his base that he was going to open up on Obama in the latest debate and the fact that the stock market had that one day bounce back... but with the crash the market moving downwards again and how ineffective McCain was in the debates... I think the polls will open back up to a double digit Obama lead.
I just noticed Sean's depiction of Biden's rally on Tuesday. I saw a clip of that rally, and Sean left out the best part. When Biden said, "Folks, there's one fundamental difference between Obama Biden and McCain Palin", someone yelled out "Brains!" Biden broke up, put his head down, and said "I should stop here". Great moment
markedman said...
"I'm not a concern troll, but today's Rasmussen does have me slightly worried
I don't like those numbers
can someone reassure me please?"
You never look at individual numbers. Or even daily numbers. Instead focus on sustained trends.
Be interesting to see which where the polls are headed tomorrow. I would suggest even a holding steady number favours Obama.
Interesting that GOP are hitting ACORN so hard, I don't think personally its to hit Obama so much as to raise it as an issue so that can kick up a stink about it in the election aftermath.
Pre-debate, concern trolls. The last couple of days of tracker polling is irrelevant., regardless of whether Obama is 6 or 12 points in the lead.
Antmatic: I agree If the LV screen is that close for the VA poll then Obama is likely up a lot more... the new AA vote alone would drive him up.
quick question: what is the difference between likely voters and registered voters again? I thought registered voters are a subset of likely voters, with likely voters including people who are not yet registered who will probably register and vote. Or is it vice versa, where likely voters are registered voters who will actually go to the polls on Nov. 4?
A very telling story about the fundamental difference between how the two campaigns operate; possibly the best so far.
And it's obvious which one is working.
Keep up the great work guys.
Would it be a real shame for Obama to lose this election because of Joe The Plumber! I was in a deli in CO this morning and everyone was talking about it, builders, carpenters, plumbers, hard working blue collar folks. Listening in, it sounded like Barack is in trouble. I hope this is not a fatal mistake by him!
Agree wholeheatedly RWD---my wife has a private practicte as a psychologist and we love the fact that each year we are paying more in income tax. It is also important to remember that being a small business owner enables you to have a bunch of tax deductions that the rest of the population does not have available to them.
We've got to remember the National trackers while easier to track are irrelevant. The campaighn is being fought in less than 10 states. National numbers will fluctuate up and down but those 8-10 states are where the campaign is at.
Gallup, Rassmussen, Daily Kos = irrelevant.
Keith said...
"Would it be a real shame for Obama to lose this election because of Joe The Plumber! I was in a deli in CO this morning and everyone was talking about it, builders, carpenters, plumbers, hard working blue collar folks. Listening in, it sounded like Barack is in trouble. I hope this is not a fatal mistake by him!"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Are you smoking crack?
Vadim said...
Greatest ad ever.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/90-percent_ad
I hope that it runs everywhere
--------
I know nobody will see this way down here but for those wondering why Obama always said "voted with Bush 90% of the time" instead of the actual 95% your reason is at the end of this video.
More rope a dope from the master of politics, Barack Obama.
The most accurate pollster in 2004 was IBD/TIPP which was only off by .4% on the final margin. The second most accurate in 2004 was Rasmussen.
Today, Rasmussen gives Obama a 4-point lead and IBD/TIPP is not out yet but yesterday gave Obama 3-point lead. Within Bradley effect territory (if there ends up being one this year).
Of course, pollster accuracy in one presidential election does not guarantee accuracy in the next one as Zogby could tel you. He was great in 2000 and lousy in 2004.
Nice work, Sean.
Here's a thought. If Reps are so expert at voter fraud, isn't it likely that they have some going themselves? Looking at those empty phone banks makes me think that desperate measures are all they have left, and if we've learned anything in the last eight years it's that they'll boldly go to deceit, deception and denial.
I think the debate will put a little pep in McCain's step and his supporters.
The tightening will occur.
Two points:
1) Joe the plumber will be a theme but I think the point is he is not in the mass of the middle class even though he looks the part. He is not Joe "six pack" he is Joe "six figures" and there is big difference. The real middle class folks are not Joe.
2) Joe being white set's up the potential of a "mano a mano" against a black man... not the best scenario... but if Obama can stress that the vast majority will do better with him, and that Joe is not the vast majority, then he'll be fine.
Lastly, I think Obama has to be careful not to be seen to be piling it on in his spending on ads and his half hour buy on the
29th.
Not sure how that plays.
But if the polls tighten then the spending seems valid.
Steady message, steady contrasting and scaring Americans aoout Palin and McCain's warlike foreign policies will all help.
Not to mention an endorsement from Colin Powel! Which may be inthe offing.
And all of us calling for Obama and working hard!!!
Paul
Undecided voters by the end of the debate "Will you shut up about Joe the plumber."
I'm amazed when the media pics up on stuff that the population doesn't care about. Aires, Joe the plumber, Acorn. Nobody cares.
Uh-Oh....tightening in the polls even before the debate that McCain has his strongest performance.
Ras down to 4
Gallup down to 2 Holy shit.
Once the other pollsters realize that they are weighting for a different election they will follow as well.
Btw, see the picture and headline of Obama plans victory party 3 weeks out.
Time for a boxing analogy methinks. McCain has been throwing the same haymakers for a while now, and never connecting. Some people say he won last night, but really because he avoided a blow Obama has been connecting with consistently (the 3rd Bush term line). But actually what he didn't do was connect that often. To start off with the 'Plumber Joe' stuff was a good direct jab,. but became easily deflected by the end. (And what happens if close links between him and the McCain camp are discovered?) Obama, by being good on detail kept the jab connecting all night, and didn't really ever need to go beyond that.
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...
"small business owner enables you to have a bunch of tax deductions that the rest of the population does not have available to them."
Even most SBs that are the kind where you see job growth are C-Corps not S-Corps which means they pay corporate income taxes, not individual ones. Also comparing 35% in the US to 11% in Ireland is a joke since effective tax rates are what really should be compared.
Cockiness is not good. all Obama supporters here should make at least ten phone calls tonight.
Giving money now is probably not much help - its all about getting your neighbor to be an Obama voter.
Get complacent on Nov 5th. This is not in the bag, and the movement towards McCain is real, albeit not huge.
Nov 5th you can party if we win, but dont act like its done because its not.
was the highest lead in Ras for O 8 points? If I look at the trend of Ras, it seems to be going down for O
but that said yes he's above 50 percent and that's what is key, not to mention all major networks declaring VA no longer a toss up and Obama pulling ahead in CO and FL
Matt, national trackers tend to precede state trackers. There isn't really a logical reason why this should be so, but it's certainly something that's been noticed by a lot of posters on all sides of the ideological divide. Not that it's evenly distributed; VA and FL have moved pretty heavily for Obama during his recent surge while OH, CO, and NM have moved very little.
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=6047360&page=1
He claims he did not expect his name to come up during the debate then how come there was a reporter watching the debate with him last night????
Meet Joe-the-plumber: newest, spur of the moment McCain campaign prop.
Haha, I agree the 90 Percent ad is pretty crushing.
ERIC,
"Since this blog post from Nate and Sean regards Ohio, it should be noted that mathematically Ohio and Nevada are the only two potential tipping points for Obama where the new registration advantage from 2004 to 2008 for Dems exceed the amount Kerry lost by."
Actually Bush won CO by 49,762 votes with a 177,000 Repub registration advantage. As of last check in septmeber Repub advantage was down to 39,000. Repub advantage is reduced by 138,000 and the margin was 49,762 in 2004.
McCain surge ?
can't wait till tomorrow
can McCain comeback & save us ?
STOP WORRYING EVERYBODY
IF you see the Kos poll inside the margin of error then you can worry. Ras, Zog, Gal do not properly account for new registrations.
For those of you that don't think TIPP has an ideological bias only IBD does look at the front page of TIPP.
"Are we ready for socialism?" Look at the questions asked? TIPP is a glorified national push pollster.
Cockiness is not good. all Obama supporters here should make at least ten phone calls tonight.
As we said in the 60's Right On.
Heading out to PA this Saturday. This is not time to get complacent we have to keep pouring it on.
Turns out that as expected, 'Joe the Plumber' is not what he claims to be...
his local paper is checking him out already @
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/NEWS09/810160418
turns out he is not even a licensed plumber !!!
claims his boss discussed 'maybe' selling him the small plumbing company 6 years ago - but he could not buy it anyway since it is illegal to work without a license
plus, 'Joe' [real name Samuel] "He voted in his first primary on March 4 of this year, registering as a Republican."
He won’t say who he will vote for on Nov. 4, but did say he likes Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.
'Joe' is in favor of Huckabee's flat tax, and only reported earning $40K in 2006 court records [divorce]
In December, 2007, the Ohio Department of Taxation placed a lien against him because $1,183 in personal property taxes had not been paid, but there has been no action in the case since it was filed.
He said he was born in the Toledo area, lived until he was 13 in the Florida Panhandle area, went to Springfield High School, and then entered the U.S. Air Force. He was stationed at an Air Force base in Alaska from 1992 until 1995. He said he was honorably discharged.
Mr. Wurzelbacher also said he lived in Arizona from 1997 until 2000.
-------------------------------------------
Guess the GOPers once again neglected to 'vet' this guy before they made him their newest 'common man'
more bad news to follow as the story develops into another GOPer embarrassment...
Jack-be-nimble is lying.
Obama is up 6 in Gallup and has been at 50% or above in the Fox-News funded Rasmussen poll for his longest time ever. Rasmussen has a house effect of at least +4 for Republicans, so Obama is actually up double-digits there once you account for it.
Not to mention that McCain lost every post-debate flash poll last night, with some blue-collar voters calling his performance "vile," "misleading," and even "erratic," and this election is over. McCain is unfortunately not viable because of his shaky judgment, which is shown in his relationships with people like Keating and with Sarah Palin's unpatriotic secessionist husband.
Joe the Plumber is a figemtn of everyone's imagination. If McCain wins because of this guy, this country is dopier than I thought.
#1 Joe the Plumber makes much less than $250,000/yr according to Joe. He'd pay less taxes under Obama than under McCain.
#2 Joe the Plumber would be exempt from health care "fines" under Obama's plan as he explained, small businesses would not be required to be the "health care of last resort" or pay a fine. Joe would be better off financially with Obama as President in every way.
Does that matter? Or does truth not matter as much as twisted perception?
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