10.10.2008

On the Road: Dueling Rallies, Ohio

On a day when the Dow plunged another 678 points, we had the opportunity to cross paths with another Barack Obama rally and another Sarah Palin rally here in west-central Ohio. Obama did five rallies here in two days: Dayton, Cincinnati, Portsmouth, Chillicothe, and Columbus, while Palin did events in Wilmington (home of the DHL plant closing that David Plouffe promised to highlight in local radio ads) and Cleveland. The events were a study in contrasts.

The Lectern - Obama Rally; Dayton, Ohio - BrettMarty.com


Barack Obama spoke to a crowd of approximately 8,500 in Dayton's Fifth Third (Eighth?) Field for 40 minutes, and immediately launched into a detailed discussion of the economy. Titled the "American Jobs Tour Rally," Obama managed the subtle stagecraft of physically morphing from a suit-coated politician to a coatless, sleeves-rolled-up problem-solver.

Tiny Obama - Obama Rally; Dayton, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

Palin's rally featured the more impressive entrance, with giant video screens showing the crowd the slowly turning campaign bus as it approached the cavernous inside venue. Finally, the fog machines hit high blast, the huge blue curtain parted, and the bus drove right inside the hall. As "Eye of the Tiger" blasted over the loudspeakers, Palin bounded on stage to a full-throated roar. It was some pretty sweet stagecraft, (even if had Obama tried it he'd have been ridiculed for behaving as a "celebrity").



Palin's comments were entirely general. There were few specifics on the economy besides freezing spending and a pledge to balance the budget. Despite brief allusions to economic worries, there was no discussion of how America finds itself in this mess. To do so, she explicitly argued, was to dwell on the past rather than look to the future.

She spoke for longer than her brief Carson City rally we saw September 13 -- just under 30 minutes -- and her crowd was larger and louder here. She spent about 10% of the time talking about Bill Ayers. "Ambition explains launching your political career in the living room of an unrepentant terrorist," Palin said, punctuated by four or five loud shouts of "Terrorist!' from the crowd.

Obama's rally featured the chant, "Obama! Obama!" Palin's crowd chanted "Nobama!" twice. With brio. It struck me that the big chant in Carson City was "Drill Baby Drill!" but here when that chant came up it was soft, half-hearted, and uncoordinated. "Nobama!" had the juice. Not even "Sarah!" could trump "Nobama!"

Props - Palin Rally; Wilmington, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

The language that the two candidates used on yet another rough economic day showed contrast. For Obama's part, threaded through an extensive discussion of economic policy were repeated phrases: "I have confidence," "I believe in you," "we can do this," "we're in this together," and "together, we cannot fail." On the other hand, Palin's comments were directed at Obama -- she was in full hockey agitator mode -- "terrorist," "judgment," "ambition." As for DHL shutting down 8,000 jobs in Wilmington, "we're gonna do something about it." Obama is afraid of mavericks. And Obama is a very dangerous guy who can't be trusted. Big disconnect from the day's events. While most of the 10,500 or so people cheered loudly, I noticed a number of people who stood with arms folded as the attacks unrolled.

Palin Power - Palin Rally; Wilmington, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

The coup de grace was her closing statement, a direct assertion that Obama was a coward.
So you know, Ohio, from now until Election Day, you're gonna hear our opponents go on and on about how they'll, quote, fight for you. But since my running mate won't say this on his own behalf I will say it for him. And that is, in this campaign there is only one man who has every really fought for you. The only man who has ever really fought for you and the only man with courage.

Palin 2012 - Palin Rally; Wilmington, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

Contrast with Obama's closing message:
Together, we cannot fail. Not now. Not when we have a crisis to solve and an economy to save. Not when there are so many Americans without jobs and without homes. Not when there are families who can’t afford to see a doctor, or send their child to college, or pay their bills at the end of the month. Not when there is a generation that is counting on us to give them the same opportunities and the same chances that we had for ourselves.

We can do this. Americans have done this before. Some of us had grandparents or parents who said maybe I can’t go to college but my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but my child can. I may have to rent, but maybe my children will have a home they can call their own. I may not have a lot of money but maybe my child will run for Senate. I might live in a small village but maybe someday my son can be president of the United States of America.

Now it falls to us. Together, we cannot fail.

Boy - Obama Rally; Dayton, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

Obama spent almost his whole speech talking about the economy. Palin showed she was capable of talking specifics, but only when breaking down the exact whens and wheres of Obama meeting Ayers, and who said what when, on what interview. Very, very detailed. It was jarring -- the absence of detailed economic discussion. Most people think we're heading for another depression. I think it works well on people already sold on voting Republican but not as well on undecided voters or independents.

There was good news. We'd heard reports that the media was becoming the target of angry crowds at McCain-Palin events, and while that might or might not be true for others, we can't report anything but helpfulness by the McCain-Palin staff nor can we report feeling uncomfortable in the crowd. Most everyone was friendly and happy to let Brett take their pictures, and we had a privileged political day.

Secret Service - Obama Rally; Dayton, Ohio - BrettMarty.com

[UPDATE] So, Brett's site suffered a DDOS attack, and is now offline, with BlueHost refusing to ever host Brett again. We're re-configuring, so bear with us.

208 comments

Real Joe said...

FIRST !

great post Sean

Another Mike said...

and Brett.

Darío said...

John McCain is the presidential candidate, not this religious fundamentalist called Sarah Palin.

Marx was right said...

Obama releases small business plan: http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-small-business-rescue-plan/

NEW PROPOSAL: While the financial market rescue plan is designed to unfreeze credit which will indirectly benefit small businesses, Obama recognizes that small businesses need direct and immediate access to capital now. Today he is calling for a Small Business Rescue Plan to help small firms get the loans the need to conduct day-to-day operating expenses, undertake short-term investments, and meet payrolls. The plan will use the tools we have available through the Small Business Administration to aggressively extend credit to struggling firms, while providing tax cuts for small businesses to encourage job creation. With small businesses responsible for more than two-thirds of new job creation, this plan is vital to stemming job losses and turning our economy around.

Real Joe said...

yes

& Brett

Real Joe said...

when are the new Ras polls coming out ?

Josh said...

I'm having a real hard time controlling my anger when I read about McCain/Palin going with the Ayers attacks.

I understand they are desperate, but that doesn't make it OK.

Founder Of Reader's Digest Also A Pal Of Terrorists.

Rich Merritt said...

Off-topic, but Nate and Sean, think about using this site after the election to Impeach Clarence Thomas. All we need is one change of vote on the Supreme Court, or they will have the power to stop Obama's agenda, just as the "Four Horsemen" stopped FDR's New Deal for several years.

And keep the f-bombs dropping!

murraylangston44 said...

And a few minutes later Survivor called and asked McCain/Palin to stop using there song...

Robert said...

Republicans and Democrats:
Will you write a quick email to the McCain campaign to let them know that the current ginning up of hatred is not a good thing for our country or their election prospects?

Even a one sentence email gets your opinion logged.

I think we can all agree that the wave of hate strategy is not good for the long term future of our country. A time when people are hurting and angry, and looking for someone to pin their anger on, is a bad time to whip up violent sentiments. AS much as I disagree with some of them, I am fine with negative ads by McCain against Obama, or contrasts, etc., but I think that some wackos are going to find this current mob stuff motivating to commit acts of violence. Our country is in no shape for dealing with the effects of an assassination, or even the anger and fear an attempt would create. Let's set our differences aside on this one.

PS: everyone here also knows from the polls remaining relatively stable right now, with some evidence of a further slumping of McCain's numbers, that this strategy is also not helping your candidate if you are a republican. You are doing your candidate a favor AND clearly serving the best interests of your country by taking 60 seconds to email. (I know dems, you don't really want to help McCain's election prospects, but this is for the general good - why don't you email too.)

I would encourage everyone to write to the McCain campaign (republican supporters, independents, and democrats). I never thought I would write posts encouraging people to go to McCain's website, but I think if they are getting an overwhelming amount of feedback on this, they might at least be explicit that hate/violence are not ok, which they are currently refraining from manning up and doing.

Daniel said...

This is to Nate -

Near the 50 state red/blue map, can you add a scale/legend. Put all the shades of blue from lightest to darkest side by side with all the shades of red from lightest to darkest. It is hard to see which shades to blue are inversely equivalent to which shades of red/pink.

Congrats on the great media appearances!

Dan said...

Hello,
I love your site, but the flash photo viewer that you're using in this post is absolutely horrible. If you get a chance, try switching to some other method of displaying photos, because this thing is straight-up broken.

james said...

The Palin 2012 sign is telling, the base has already accepted that they're losing this time.

PeteKent said...

As we veer toward crisis can we really be thinking of turning the government over to a man so completely unknown to us? A man who resists all independent investigation of who is and where he has come from? We have glimpsed at his radicalism, his socialism. But we are not to be permitted to peek further behind the curtain. Not only does Obama shout us down, but so do his allies in the mainstream media!

A trillion dollars is being given to Wall Street, with the promise of more to come. The proposal has been made that the Treasury must start buying the shares of the banks, that the government own the banks.

Imagine the conglomeration of power with the financial industry under the thumb of Federal government presided over by Democrats Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid!

Does the public not have the right to know what these people are made of?

Do you think for a moment that when and if Wall Street recovers under a President Obama that he and his left wing allies will not demand a pound (or more likely a ton) of flesh for the radical causes they have long-supported? Organizations such as ACORN that commit election fraud in broad daylight and still get rewarded in the bailout bill. They will seek to rework the world in their own image. Many politicians do that, but at least we know what that image is.

Who is the real Barack Obama? Might the socialist, radical fox will be taking over the hen house?

The time has long past to count your chickens. Now may be the time to flee with them before the Manchurian Candidate.

FISH said...

So who's going to win in Ohio?

Ed Robertson said...

A generic comment on methodology:

I really like your site but I noticed some anomalies between what
the simulations reported for fixed scenarios and what one derived
from elemental probability theory. I think that you have some of

For example, the Scenario Analysis in the right column reports
'FL but not OH' with probability 55.06% while the direct calculation
gives 71% * 24% = 17.04. That is a huge discrepancy. However,
reversing the sense of OH, that is the scenario 'FL and OH' gives
71% * 76% = 53.96%, which is within quite reasonable range of the
Monte Carlo simulation. I believe the two other 'not OH' scenarios
are also similarly mislabeled.
VA, not OH: 62.88%, 85% * 24% = 20.4%, 85% * 76% = 64.6%
CO, not OH: 66.03%, 86% * 24% = 20.64%, 86% * .76% = 65.36

The scenario 'OH, not PA' (simulation 24.97%, direct 76% * 8% = 6.08%,
invert PA sense 76% * 92% = 69.92%) doesn't make sense either way.
I did not check the other case.

By the way, while on Monte Carlo methods and politics, I must recall
the time (about 1970) when Prof. John Halton of UW - Madison was
denounced by name in the Wisconsin State Senate for leading the fine
young sons and daughters of Wisconsin into immoral ways - Prof. Halton
was teaching a course on Monte Carlo simulation.

Ryuu said...

I read once that people and companies in the position of power have the privilege of being able to ignore their competitors. You know some is (or feels that they are) stable and secure in their supremacy when they can talk about themselves rather than their competition.

We're seeing that here with Obama and McCain. McCain's the underdog, constantly trying to pull Obama down from his position on top, and Obama's got enough confidence and enough of a lead as front runner that he can safely choose to ignore McCain and McCain's surrogates and talk about himself and what he's doing.

Yinka Double Dare said...

Fifth Third is actually "One and Two-thirds", not "Eighth".

Also, enjoy this continuing coverage, always interesting to get reports from the trail from someone besides the established media who need to keep their access and connections.

Darío said...

Radical are the religious fundamentalist Palin.

Jen said...

Palin thinks that McCain has courage? Picking her was an act of courage (and breathtaking stupidity).

However, talking personal smack regarding your opponent behind his back is not the height of personal courage.

I don't know what Obama was thinking not being a Vietnam POW. I don't care if he was only 6 when McCain was captured. He should have been there.

Hopeful in NJ said...

But doesn't her closing statement imply it is McCain who is a coward, being unwilling to tell the truth about the terrorist loving Obama. Worse yet, it also implies that to those of us who don't think McCain can really believe that.

Real Joe said...



Hate Crime? - Obama sign burned on black family's front lawn

Link

Billy said...

This needs to go viral fast!

Check out Palins associations!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8-ojQKc2L0

Bede the Youthful said...

This is from the Anchorage Daily News Troopergate blog:

"Sen. Kim Elton, D-Juneau and the Legislative Council chairman, stepped out for a bathroom break and was asked how it was going inside. "I'm not going to characterize it," he said. "I'm tempted to, but I won't.""

ho ho, baby!

InkStain said...

EJ = these aren't Monte Carlo simulations of pure state probabilities. The states move with each other based on similar demographics.

GG said...

EVERYONE!! Don't forget to keep clicking the McCain/Palin ad link at top of fivethirtyeight.com.

Two things. (1) It tran$fer$ buck$ from Republican pocket$ to Sean's and Nate's. (2) It's a riot.*

*I'm using Firefox on a Mac and when I click the ad, it auto opens a video about McCain and Palin. And if you click again immediately, the video opens again on top of the previous one. And on and on. I have twenty overlapping voice tracks going now, and it's pure babel. In the words of T.S. Eliot, a perfect "objective correlative." Yeah, I'm an English prof. :-)

Dan Warren said...

I'm glad they're on the attack, because it really only serves to further highlight the almost content-free nature of the McCain-Palin "platform" these days. Combined with the audience rhetoric from the Wisconsin town meeting Thursday night, they're quickly developing an image of a party that has no ideas, whose entire platform is based on racism and xenophobia.

Eric said...

Josh said...
I'm having a real hard time controlling my anger when I read about McCain/Palin going with the Ayers attacks.

I understand they are desperate, but that doesn't make it OK.


Just thinking the same thing. In finance, the term capitulation is often used or in other worlds "coming to a head or a boil". I never felt exactly what that meant until now. My dislike for the Neo-Cons is turning into outright hatred. i don't like it. My hope is that come Nov.4th, Obama will be elected and the old Republican Party of Lincoln, Teddy, Ike, Nixon, GHW Bush will have to take the reigns, maybe 30 years from now. In the time being hopefully the Neo-Con party will no longer be viable and my hatred can dissipate.

Rich Merritt said...

PeteKent...

The problem is that we DO know McCain, and he's unfit, and unworthy to be President

Check out the Rolling Stone article at the bottom of the blog posting link above. If even half of it's true, McCain should never be where he is. He's worse than Bush when it comes to medicrity and using his Dad's connections. Obama? We've watched him up close for almost two years. He's an incredible man. Hopefully we'll be lucky and elect him.

Real Joe said...



McCain Campaign Now Attacks Michelle Obama Over Ayers

Link

fiatluxury said...

ah, here it comes. burnt Obama signs, bricks in windows - those fothermuckers are going to reap the whirlwind from this cracker-rally madness.

I for one am glad to hear O's closing words...about how we're going to do this. I suspect his 30 minutes of TV time will be him talking about what he's GOING to do as president, fait accompli - the same way he stopped talking to Hillary at the end of the Dem debates and started talking to McCain. Like, "Listen, *I* know I'm the candidate, and *you* know I'm the candidate, so as long as I have the platform, I will address my *real* opponent." A bit cocky, to be sure, but with the tactical benefit of reassuring a skitterish electorate that he's got a plan on day one.

Obama/Biden/(Fey) '08!

Real Joe said...

any new polls coming out today ?

Eric said...

Demo experts help me out. inkstain, whomever else.

Ohio and Virginia started voting last week.

Many states start next week.

I'm trying to figure out the chances of Obama building up cushions in possible tipping point states. What do you know. I know Georgia started last week too, not likely tipping point though.

Vote said...

If 5% of all Americans are racist, Obama still wins.

Obama 343, McCain 195

McCain is Not Racist, as Far as I Know

Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.

2nd Debate: Live Analysis

John said...

Newsweek poll (10/8-9):

Obama 52
McCain 41

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337

Jen said...

ML44- That entrance sounded pretty cheesy, and she was dogging styrofoam columns? I bet there will be fire shooting out of jets in her next appearance.

James- good catch. When I saw it, I just thought "I guess there is no accounting for taste." My gut reaction was so strong, I did not think about it.

Does anyone think she has a shot at the nomination in 2012? If McCain was elected by some horrible chance, I could see her running against him in the primary in 2012 anyways if there was any shot at her winning. She pretty much did the same to Murkowski (who wanted her as Lt. Gov, but she lost the election that year).

Chi said...

"McCain Campaign Now Attacks Michelle Obama Over Ayers"

Mccain's campaign is the most schizophrenic campaign, ever.

Real Joe said...

new state polls coming out ?

when ?

Voice of the Midwest said...

"Who is the real Barack Obama? Might the socialist, radical fox will be taking over the hen house?" (PeteKent)

May I suggest not reading any more Tom Clancy books, Pete? What a nuthouse rant. my friend.

Wall Street is desperately seeking two things that Main Street is seeking: calmness and steadiness.

Pete - the lie about Bill Ayers is not working. Yeah, it gins up the people who were already with McCain, but it is driving away independents and especially working class whites.

It's the economy. When that is #1, the dirty tricks tend not to work.

How can you support these people who have buried our economy and led us to the biggest foreign policy failure in our nation's history? There are fools, then there are damn fools. The damn fools believe Bush is doing a good job and he deserves a third term through McCain.

Back in 2000, his own campaign staff told SC GOP voters that he had a "colored" child, post traumatic stress syndrome, and that Cindy was a drug addict.

Thing they will pull it out again, Pete? This is the quality of people you look to for leadership. God help us all if we are stupid enough to fall for the lies - again...

Real Joe said...

attacking Mrs. Obama is not good

IL_Grimacѐ said...

Great post, I've noticed for a while now this growing trend between them. If Obama isn't looked at as being better for trying to calm people during crisis and re-establish confidence in the economy, then there is something really wrong. The best Palin has is some nonsense about Ayers that was stupid to begin with now it's just getting old.

Not that you care, but Fifth/Third got its name from the fact that its original bank was on the corner of Fifth and Third.

Chi said...

"Obama 52
McCain 41"

Booyah!

Darío said...

new state polls coming out ?


Vermont and Oregon, Obama ahead.

Darío said...

Pete is a religious fundamentalist.

Michelangelo said...

God love you for this reporting.

Andrew said...

Pete is a religious fundamentalist.

and a racist.

Jen said...

"McCain Campaign Now Attacks Michelle Obama Over Ayers"

Did not Obama make it clear that it would be on if they brought in his wife? Cindy McCain has way more dirt than Michelle Obama. Not that I expect McCain to give two shits (pardon my language, but I am finding McCain to be a despicable person) about his wife. She is just a blank check book to him. I rather feel sorry for her.

fiatluxury said...

hey...am i being irrationally exuberant, or did Indiana just turn light blue on Nate's map? Has it already been like that?

INDIANA, ferreal?

Kennyb said...

From the linky above:

The founder of Reader’s Digest, Walter Annenberg, provided Bill Ayers with a $49.2 million education grant in the 1990s.

Do you understand just how ridiculous the McCain campaign’s claims about Obama “palling around with terrorists” really are yet?

Not only did Annenberg found the Reader’s Digest but he was also a good friend of Ronald Reagan. His widow, Leonore Annenberg, served on the same board that Obama & Ayers served on together (for the Annenberg Challenge.)

Leonore Annenberg is now a supporter of John McCain, the McCain campaign was proud enough of her endorsement that they included it in a press release. But using the McCain campaign’s standards, she also “pals around with terrorists.” Should they be accepting the endorsement of someone like that?

Dannylandulf said...

Psst. Don't look now but McCain is only .6 above 20 on intrade.

Is today the day he drops below 20?

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/101008_foxpoll.pdf

Ayers does not work though. Also 40% is is less likely to vote for McCain because of Palin (same for independents), 32% is more likely to vote for him (28% of independents). Her net favorables are +5 compared to +28 for Biden, +13 for McCain and +26 for Obama.

So she should keep doin' what she's doin' 'cause it's workin'. Damn right.

Ken said...

I think it's wonderful the hate in the hearts of most Republicans is finally coming out. I've witnessed it time and time again over the years, and now it's coming out in full.

Becky Sharp said...

@jen
>>Palin thinks that McCain has courage? Picking her was an act of courage (and breathtaking stupidity).

Not even sure why, but I found this hysterically funny. There's coffee all over my keyboard now (seriously) The guy who I share this office with came over to see what I was laughing at.

I think McCain's idiocy is starting to make me giddy

newsfromOH said...

Palin in CLEVELAND!!!!

Another $50 from me to Obama!!

Can't imagine the crowd she'd draw in Cleveland . . . Seriously, they're going to have to come in from the suburbs. Like the infamous Strongsville rally that no doubt drew mouth-breathers from Medina County (which is getting better but is still hayseed, redneck, ignoramus territory in large part). Most of the area around Cleveland couldn't be bluer.

Example: While Obama has so many operating bases around here, McCain's ONLY outpost was under a restaurant in a shopping center. The entrance is right by the dumpsters!!! No kidding, maybe they should have taken a hint from the location, huh??? I've wanted to go in and get some signs, knowing that I could dispose of them quickly without having to carry them all the way to my car!!! Haven't done it because the smell's too bad back there . . .

Robert said...

Hey everyone: I have been trying to think what to do about productively acting on my total frustration at the McCain camp doing its insane hate based campaign that seems like nascent fascism.

Here are some McCain offices to call and shame volunteers that they are associated with it. I am a Baptist Christian myself, and I definitely intend to ask his Christian volunteers how they reconcile supporting this stuff with their faith.

Have a cell phone with a few extra minutes and no penalty for long distance? Want to make some calls too? Here are some numbers to get started with.

McCain National Contact (You can leave messages)
(703) 418-2008

All these others you can talk to volunteers:
Missouri
(314) 667-4411

Ohio
614-441-8097

Virginia (mid Atlantic HQ)
703-297-8900

Nashua Victory HQ
603-888-3138

New Hampshire
603-369-4944

Laconia, NH
602-524-1999

Stratham NH
603-778-1154

new mexico, Central office
505 298 2662

Albuquerque
505-715-4330

McCain Great Lakes MI
248-579-0350

********************

Who likes this idea? I've made calls on his behalf before, and now I feel dirty.

Rodney Peterson said...

Clearly McCain/Palin deserve to lose-and for the good of the nation as well. They offer nothing beyond baseless excitement and emotion, as if Sarah Palin were speaking to a high school rally at a football game. I'm glad you didn't encounter the type of anger that's been reported and is clearly dangerous.


Another-but different-One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest-Cutting Confessions offers high drama and cutting edge comedy in a story with the cetral theme everybody does matter-the unusual story of an artistic and abused Beverly Hills girl and a midwestern man brought together by repeated acts of fate-find it here:

www.myspace.com/370392338

www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com

Matt W said...

Yinka Double Dare said...
Fifth Third is actually "One and Two-thirds", not "Eighth".

Really?!? wow you are clever!

Hey Yinka, what's the name of this website?

newsfromOH said...

It's behind the Brecksville Center shopping center should anyone care to go see and post some pics of its sorry state . . .

Becky Sharp said...

[lifted from old thread]

Surreal. Did I get banged on the head and wake up in an onion story?

From real joe's Michelle-Ayers story

"The McCain campaign is now broadening their attack on Obama's past association with William Ayers to include Michelle Obama -- even though McCain has repeatedly said spouses should be off limits during the campaign.

The attack? Bernardine Dohrn, Ayers' wife and fellow former Weatherman, went to work in 1984 for the major Chicago-based national law firm of Sidley & Austin, and three years later, Michelle joined the mega-firm as well.


That's the entire attack. We wish we were joking. But we aren't."

Cooper said...

The same poll showing Georgia -3 for Obama has the Senate race TIED. This is HUGE in the quest for 60!

Dave Barnes said...

Thank you Sean and Brett for the wonderful words and strong photos of these events.

You guys have really added a lot to this website. (Not that we don't Nate and the data.)

Dave Brodbeck said...

I am completely speechless about the sign burning. All that does is bring tears to my eyes (and I am a white guy living in Canada, though I can see the US from my backyard, which gives me foreign policy experience...).

Attacking Mrs. Obama is an(other) act of desperation. It is odd, I don't even know the names Steven Harper or Stephane Dion's wives (the two main challengers in our election). I have never understood the US obsession with the families of politicians.

Oh I should add that attacking Mrs. Obama is quite classless.

Becky Sharp said...

I'll be delighted if scumbag Chambliss gets his marching orders

markymark said...

Maybe maybe, McCain and the Republicans are trying to hurt the Obama Presidency before its begun, trying to push up the negativesm anbd setting 2012 up as Obama vs Palin already?

Joey said...

I think it's wonderful the hate in the hearts of most Republicans is finally coming out. I've witnessed it time and time again over the years, and now it's coming out in full.

I think that one of the best things about this election is that it has held up a mirror to the American people and forced them to look at it. One day soon they will have to face what they saw.

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Rich (vtslayer) said...

Ed Robertson: you misunderstand the statement "Obama wins Florida while Losing Ohio." What Nate is saying is not "The percentage of all simulations in which Obama both wins Florida and loses Ohio." What he is saying is "The percentage of simulations in which Obama loses Ohio in which he also wins Florida."

Thus, of the 10,000 simulations run Obama loses Ohio 2,423 times. Of those times Obama loses Ohio, he wins Florida 1,334. 1334/2423 = 55.06%

To answer your question, look only at the number 1334. This is the total number of simulations in which Obama both loses Ohio and wins Florida. This is 13.34%, which is quite in line with the 17% figure you calculated, especially when you consider the interstate correlations Nate's model assumes.

Similar calculations work for the other scenarios you list.

clarkejeffrey said...

I know this is minor and kinda stupid but.....


I'm sort of surprised she signed a "PALIN 2012" sign. McCain has said he will not sign a one term pledge and plans on running for reelection in 2012. Couldn't that be viewed as disloyal?

newsfromOH said...

petekent,

Hold your comments until Palin submits to a press conference or two. Her Putin-esque refusal to open q & a by the press corps (not just hand picked softball questions) is about as un-American as possible.

The answers you seek can be found in the 20 months of vetting Obama has gone through on the campaign trail. Until your beloved Palin catches up, you have no legitimate basis upon which to squawk.

Once she has a good long press conference, then have at it. Face it, you know squat about her yet you're blindly throwing your faith to her. Not a wise move. There's PLENTY of smoke around her, no doubt from a few big fires. I'm in Andrew Sullivan's corner (The Atlantic). Until she comes clean, she shouldn't get another second of news coverage.

Dannylandulf said...

markymark said...

Maybe maybe, McCain and the Republicans are trying to hurt the Obama Presidency before its begun, trying to push up the negativesm anbd setting 2012 up as Obama vs Palin already?
------------------------------

Same argument was made about Hillary once it was obvious she was gong to lose to him. Something tells me he'll be alright.

Joey said...

Incidentally, CNN just showed a poll that is interesting. It talked about voters in the suburbs, and how they typically go Republican. However this year, for the first time, the suburban vote may go 50% to Democrats.

Real Joe said...



Weathermen prosecutor dismisses efforts to tie Obama to Ayers


Link

markymark said...

Don't get me wrong, if thats the tactic the McCain camp is going down, then I don't think it will work. November the 4th will draw a line under the campaign and Obama can start to bring the nation together.

Carlos from Philly said...

Eighth... nice.

Chi said...

"I'm sort of surprised she signed a "PALIN 2012" sign."

I can't fathom why people think she stands a chance in 2012 should she and McCain lose this election. You cannot win the presidency with only the nutjob base. You need moderates and independents. Her chance of ever winning this key constituency is better than a snowball's chance in hell.

NC moderate said...

Anybody heard anything about Palin being at a Flyers hockey game Saturday night?

Sean Quinn said...

Sorry for the temporary blip in a great photostream Brett composed. For some reason - despite paying for unlimited bandwidth and two years of service, they've taken down BrettMarty.com. We're on endless hold for the tech dept.

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...

Chi said...

"McCain Campaign Now Attacks Michelle Obama Over Ayers"


Attacking the opponents spouse is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!! Now he's got nothing to LOSE!!!! That was the last piece of his honor.

I think their polling shows they started to lose their base. It is so desperate.

Jen said...

Becky said-

"That's the entire attack. We wish we were joking. But we aren't."


You know, I heard Obama was on a bus once with a guy wearing a turban. That means he is a terrorist for sure.

I am waiting for Palin to give an interview where she says "Obama is black doncha know and probably into that whole black power thing. I mean how can he not be a terrorist? We know how to spot those types in Alsaka" and then winks at the camera.

Real Joe said...

chi said...
"I'm sort of surprised she signed a "PALIN 2012" sign."

I can't fathom why people think she stands a chance in 2012 should she and McCain lose this election. You cannot win the presidency with only the nutjob base. You need moderates and independents. Her chance of ever winning this key constituency is better than a snowball's chance in hell.


LOL

sherifffruitfly said...

"we can't report anything but helpfulness by the McCain-Palin staff nor can we report feeling uncomfortable in the crowd. Most everyone was friendly and happy to let Brett take their pictures, and we had a privileged political day."

Curious: Were there any black folks in your group?

newsfromOH said...

Last night channel-surfing found a Rep. talking head ranting, seriously ranting with great fervor, about the conspiracy to photograph Palin in an unflattering way. World going to hell in a handbasket and they're freaking about VANITY.

Now going after Michelle working for Sidley Austin, which has like a billion attorneys working for it . . .


They really are insane, aren't they??? I mean, really, truly. Can we do involuntary commitments on them? Danger to self and others--I think we can prove that, no?

Chi said...

Oops...I meant to say a snowball's chance in hell is better than Palin's chances. Sorry.

markymark said...

Do you know what offends me right now about the right in this election. They are running a horse race. The country is leading the world down the road to sh*t, and all the right cares about is winning the election. Really so much for 'Country first'.

Loralee said...

@PeteKent (and others)
I wonder: when our democracy has done its most important business -- peacefully transferring power to the man preferred by the electorate -- will you be able to accept your new president?

Andrew said...
This post has been removed by the author.
markymark said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Andrew said...

Internals on that Newsweek poll are a bit odd: Men go 54-40 for Obama, women only 50-41. Also, party split is D40/R27/I30.

Still, nice top line!!!!

ogmb said...

Finally, the fog machines hit high blast, the huge blue curtain parted, and the bus drove right inside the hall. As "Eye of the Tiger" blasted over the loudspeakers, Palin bounded on stage to a full-throated roar.

But is she ready to lead?

Gerbie said...

Does anyone know what happened to the cooties post that was up for 5 minutes or so?

Alex S. said...

Uuh.. though I don´t really like Intrade I need to know why they show Indiana going to Obama now (48% vs. 40%). Did Selzer release their poll?

Newsweek is almost back to the +15 Obama that they had in the summer. But their polls are terribly volatile.

Loralee said...

And @ Real Joe:
I appreciate your reasonable and respectful tone. Your voice is important here.

fred said...

ACORN is veiled signal to the evangelicals in places like OH that it is OK to cheat, the other side is.

The repubs are very scary people, we may need every ounce of the ground game.

mchinand said...

Ed Robertson:

The probabilities in the Scenario analaysis that you are wondering about are conditional probabilities, not joint probabilities. "Obama wins Fl when losing OH..."

Charles Crook said...

Gerbie - looks like the content was removed; I received a blogger error code while refreshing the comments, and then the post was gone.

fred said...

Wow, the Cooties post just disappeared.

however said...

For Ed Robertson:

The labels for the scenario analyses are not as clear as they might be. The figure for “Obama wins FL when losing OH” is not supposed to be the probability that Obama will win FL and lose OH. It is supposed to be the probability that Obama wins FL, given that he loses OH. In other words, you look at all of the simulations in which Obama loses OH, and then calculate the fraction of those in which Obama wins FL. This is reflected in the numbers in small print to the right of the percentage; as of this writing, 1334 of 2423, which gives 55.06%.

I wrote Nick the other day suggesting that this be made more clear, but for some reason he seems to be busy at the moment…

Chi said...

"Wow, the Cooties post just disappeared."

Abracadabra.

ozzie said...

I agree about the strange internals on that newsweek poll. But the +11 RV number is in line with Gallup +10 today.

A standalone national poll (non-tracking) showing Obama +11 will get a lot of attention in the press. No wonder the McCain campaign is throwing the kitchen sink at him with personal attacks.

It is unheard of to come back from a double-digit poll deficit at this stage. McCain is really desparate.

Gerbie said...

Hopefully it will come back soon.

John said...

McCain got booed at his own rally today when he said that they need to be respectful to Barack Obama.

prairiecomm said...

I'm having a real hard time controlling my anger when I read about McCain/Palin going with the Ayers attacks.

On a metaphysical / philosophical level it is literally true that your anger feeds anger in the environment (remember einstein, and no man is an island, etc etc, and various physics theories (I don't have the correct buzz words here)). So we should do our best to, individally, locally, turn our anger (ie judo) to constructive use. Take it for a walk, chop some wood, go running.

Yeah, this probably sounds pretty esoteric to a bunch of you, but believe me, it is very much so.

I'm not surprised, actually to see the strong negativity arising countering Ob's strong positive message. But don't get sucked in.

johnmcferrinisi said...

"For example, the Scenario Analysis in the right column reports
'FL but not OH' with probability 55.06% while the direct calculation
gives 71% * 24% = 17.04. That is a huge discrepancy. However,
reversing the sense of OH, that is the scenario 'FL and OH' gives
71% * 76% = 53.96%, which is within quite reasonable range of the
Monte Carlo simulation. I believe the two other 'not OH' scenarios
are also similarly mislabeled. "

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, I think you're misinterpreting what he means. "'FL but not OH' " does NOT mean "Number of simulations in which Ohio is lost and Florida is won, divided by total number of simulations" "'FL but not OH' " means "Number of simulations in which Ohio is lost and Florida is won, divided by number of simulations in which Ohio is lost." This is confirmed by the text to the side, "1334 of 2423." This means there are 2423 simulations in which Ohio is lost, and of those, 1334 had Obama winning Florida.

There might be a better way to label the results, but it's not that hard to interpret what's meant.

seanflynn said...

I believe the Flyers' appearance is tonight (a couple hours from now), not tomorrow.

It might be right around the time of the Troopergate report release (if it actually does come out today).

bmcworldcitizen said...

Pete is a religious fundamentalist.

and a racist.


... and something of a dumbass.

prairiecomm said...

McCain/Palin ad link

note: google has finally gotten sophisticated enough to not charge for more than 2 or so clicks in a row, so click once each time you arrive, but not more.

fred said...

Shucks, I used to click McCan't ads ten or twenty times so he gets charged each time.

Matt W said...

johnmc...,
You are correct. that is why it says "when (plus gerund)" and not "and (plus verb)"

Vanessa said...

are Rass polls expected?

Jack-be-nimble said...

Please stop with the talking points. McCain is not going to stop going negative until he either takes Obama down or the election is over.

McCain has NOTHING to lose!

He doesn't need money.
He doesn't need the Senate.
He doesn't care about the media.

He is going to BURN BARACK'S POLITICAL HOUSE DOWN, win or lose.

He is going to burn Obama's reputation to the ground.

People are only beginning to rage about the illegal actions of Obama's ACORN group.

Get ready, the campaign is about to start.

fred said...

Ras said they had polls coming out at 3 and 6, at 3 they were late and it was a senate poll from a non-competitive race. Hopefully they have more at 6.

fred said...

jack-be-nimble-

Your candidate just gave a speech and ask pricks like you that support him to be respectful. Listen to him....

Real Joe said...

damn Ras

what the fu** is he waiting for

release the fu**ing numbers

i want the real numbers

i can take it

fred said...

ACORN is a veiled signal to the evangelical election stealers in OH and IN to get to work and make sure they lie enough.

fred said...

Joe, I am wireless and having a nice cab and a cigar on my deck, try it.

Gerbie said...

Real joe,

Numbers on 538 have been refreshed

nothing much has changed

Matt W said...

jack-be-nimble,

The Acorn issue is false outrage. There is no evidence, nor is there really any suggestion that Voter fraud is taking place or will take place. Acorn is accused of registration fraud. Pain in the ass for county clerks, but will not affect the election.

QUIT the false outrage. I beleive republicans are smarter than that.

fred said...

Joe-

I think McCAin gained 0.4%! Congrats!

Alex S. said...

These McCain/Palin voters are desperate about their own situation but too indoctrinated to criticize the party they voted into office, and that keeps spinning their minds via radio, tv, and church. That´s where their separation from reality begins. You might even call them brain-washed to a certain extent, but they cannot abandon this constructed set of conservative values either, because it´s all that they have got and that they are proud of. So they are rallying against socialists, communists, terrorists, muslims, liberals, lawyers, blacks and so on... They are inoculated against truth and NOTHING will change their mind. And right-wing commentators will keep on playing their strings to keep them in their mental slave status.

Loralee said...

Jack-be-nimble: I refer you back to my question for PeteKent.

So, when I logged on, the McCain win % was 9.3 and now it's 9.1. I asked about this a few days ago, and got two responses with conflicting theories. Can anyone explain? I couldn't find anything relevant in the FAQ.

Charles Crook said...

DNFTT.

donelson said...

Whoah!

Republicans and McCain-Palin are NO LONGER fighting for the Presidency !

They understand that that has been lost ALREADY.

So, why keep fighting?

Republicans are now USING McCain & Palin to rally the base for Congressional and Senate elections.

Republicans are DESPERATE to avoid losing the Senate as well as the presidency.

Republicans feel they MUST keep 40 votes to insure their filibuster to block all progressive legislation.

THAT's why the focus is all on the base.

Jack-be-nimble said...

Obama is a troll. He deserves no respect.

Matt W said...

McCain down to 9.1%

Real Joe said...

i want the Ras state numbers

any premium members here ?

fred said...

loralee-

Nate just updated the numbers, meaning he is preparing todays polling thread.

The win percentage itself? Do you need that explanantion to? Glad to give it, but it is long.

Alex S. said...

Hmm McCain lost 0.2% win chance. Well, the Ras Indiana poll was good for him. Georgia was very bad though. And Florida is looking almost safely blue now.

Matt W said...

loralee,
what exactly is your question?
Nate just updated the numbers. his written update will appear soon.

Shap said...

What is it with trolls and projection?

Real Joe said...

matt w said...
McCain down to 9.1%


LOL

as it stands he's 0

only hope for McCain is a huge bradley effect

Gerbie said...

Republicans are now USING McCain & Palin to rally the base for Congressional and Senate elections.


IMHO this was the only reason for the Palin pick, they have always known they would lose so went for a congress saving vp pick.

fred said...

donelson--

Good theory, any evidence? The states they are going to do not follow that theory.

Matt W said...

real joe,
there are other possibilities that are much more likely then a huge bradley effect.
See guest article from earlier for example.

Loralee said...

Well, if today's polls are about to go up, then I have no questioo... :) But I have seen the % numbers change hours before his new posting on some days. I'm just wondering if the numbers refresh more often than once a day? And if so, why?

fred said...

If McCain loses both FL and OH this is landslide territory.

McCAin is a lying fuck. Just watched him stoke the crows with lies.

Hank said...

> Your candidate just gave a
> speech and ask pricks like you
> that support him to be
> respectful. Listen to him....

And he got booed for it. McCain's party doesn't like him and never has. He got stiffed on immigration reform and he got stiffed on campaign finance reform. He darn near got run out of the party when he helped break the Supreme Court nomination process deadlock. The Republicans don't want to be reformed, no matter what McCain says or thinks. It's becoming pretty clear from the ugliness at the rallies just who makes up (and drives) the GOP.

I don't recognize the Republican party any more. It's become a twisted grotesque of what used to be a straightforward, respectable political organization. It needs to be put in a gunny sack, sprayed with cold water, and hit with a stick until the whimpering stops. Or maybe just put a black plastic over it for a year until the weeds and everything have died off and you can actually plant something useful again.

fred said...

loralee-

Almost always once a day is there a number update. Nate's day job is as a baseball stats guy and they are also in the playoffs. The guy is kinda busy.

Real Joe said...

loralee said...
Well, if today's polls are about to go up, then I have no questioo... :) But I have seen the % numbers change hours before his new posting on some days. I'm just wondering if the numbers refresh more often than once a day? And if so, why?


Nate updates once a day

fiatluxury said...

you know what? Sidley & Austin are, in Chicago, what my brother the lawyer refers to as "silk and iron." That reputation is their raison d'etre. And they will tolerate NO dragging of their name through ANY kind of mud. If McCain thought he got the smackdown from Heart for using "Barracuda", I would VERY much like to hear what S&A does about him cavalierly dragging them into any smear campaign.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! how you like the chicago machine now, johnny??

Jen said...

"Obama is a troll. He deserves no respect."

Irony alert! Funny, funny.

fred said...

Nice Hank. If you don't like either candidate I strongly encourage you to stay home. If Obama wins you can join the freepers and try to find a state to leave the union, AIP?

Chi said...

The one thing that Obama has going for him that past politicians such as Bradley didn't have is enthusiasm. The enthusiasm level for Barack is simply phenomenal, and I doubt people voting for him are lying to pollsters.

tibor75 said...

Ras shows Obama up 10 in Oregon. Yawn. He's been up by 10 before, but now the undecideds are deciding, and he's well over 50 (54%).

We haven't had a CO poll in a while. I imagine Quinnipiac will also release something next week after all hte debates. They haven't given anything this week.

Real Joe said...



http://election-projection.net/

Probability of Win:

McCain 0.5%

Obama 99.5%

Matt W said...

Loralee,
He only runs the simulations once per day (even when he discovers errors). Most often the numbers are updated about 15-25 minutes before he posts the analysis.

AxelDC said...

Obama is acting like someone who is preparing to take office during extreme economic duress. McCain is acting like someone prepping a crowd for a lynching.

Palin simply belongs on MTV, not CNN. She certainly has no business on CNBC.

prairiecomm said...

hank - great solarizing metaphor!

Or it could be sheet mulched.

Frida1980 said...

About this $160 million campaigning by McCain in the next few weeks. I have some questions about the validity about this article.

First, why the hell hasn't this been used in the last few weeks? Back when the news was focused entirely on Palin's lack of qualifications, the economy tanking, and knowing that Obama is out spending them in some places 8-1? What is the logic of sitting on a bomb like this when many voters make up their minds by september?

Why wasn't this money being used to offset Obama's tremendous ground game and also register REPUBLICANS to vote?

Why isn't this being used NOW, to drive in the idea that Obama is untrustworthy on a national scale?

Why these last two weeks, instead of stretching it out over the eight week period? Why not use it to guarantee McCain's lead and shut out any possibility of Obama winning?

Or is this just a way to calm the base into thinking there is a plan?

All this will do in the end, is encourage Obama's donors to donate enough to match this amount. Hmm...

160 divided by 2.5 million = $64 a piece.

Wow... I really hope they go national with this. We could use a boost like this.

pHaestus said...

Did Brian Schweitzer really just say that MT is tied because of Ron Paul support? Someone IM'd me that but I don't see any such polls...

visitor_xxx said...

Jack-be-nimble said...

Get ready, the campaign is about to start.

October 10, 2008 5:00 PM

**********

@Jack be good,

for sure you are talking about the 2012 campaign and yes I agree ,smart move:
whit 4 year in front of you,you get plenty of time to plan everything.
but THIS election oooooooooohhh THIS election is just woooaaahhhh.
And keep in mind that even in 2012 in front you will stand president Obama.
And next time find out a candidate whit the balls to look at him in the eyes.

kisses.

Jen said...

"McCain got booed at his own rally today when he said that they need to be respectful to Barack Obama."

It is the smart move for McCain to do this. It appeals to indies and moderates but it is not like the booers won't vote McCain anyways.

fred said...

Full Ras numbers?

Charles Crook said...

The problem with rabble-rousing is that once the mob has been whipped into a frenzy, it needs a target or else it turns on its creator.

At least McCain and Palin aren't holding torchlit rallies yet.

Mike said...

Phillies beating the Dodgers 8-2

SHERWICK said...

I am not sure John remembers these words and not sure if Sarah ever read them.

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice,INSURE DOMESTIC TRANQUILITY, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

tiamaria4 said...

Thanks Nate, Sean and Brett for a great site. I don't know what I'll do after the election--maybe check in every day for 2012 polling?
I attended the Obama rally in Cincinnati yesterday and despite it being hot, crowded and late to start, I loved every minute of it. I encourage anyone who has a chance to see Barack in person to do it!
I voted today in Kentucky--count one for Barack and Lundsford (Democratic Senate candidate) in this red state of mine!

Chi said...

"Palin simply belongs on MTV..."

VH1 may be a better fit.

Gerbie said...

The Republicans don't want to be reformed, no matter what McCain says or thinks. It's becoming pretty clear from the ugliness at the rallies just who makes up (and drives) the GOP.

Yes, and that is not McC's fault. However, if he was ready to be POTUS he would be able to change the base and have them accept reform. Compare this with what Tony Blair was able to do to the Labour Party at the time he was elected to lead the party.

Carl S. Ford said...

Sean,
Any witnessing of Racing Bating. I am hearing that the Palin rallies are pretty charged. I think its the religous feeling the spirit. But others are suggesting its mean spirited ala "Bob Roberts".

Would like your view.

Personally, I think the Bill Ayers discussion shows the Vietnam War era problem for the Republicans. The establishment (of "Mavericks") do not understand the frustration of the people who were trying to effect change.

DCM in FL said...

FRED

in today's RR tracker commentary, Scottie R said:

"New state polling data will be released today at 3:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. Eastern."

on that basis, I assume we have all we are getting from RR today - not much...

O up big in OR & some senate stuff

AxmxZ said...

Am I the only one who wants McCain to keep talking nonsense about Ayers? Is there a better way he could possibly show himself to be completely out of touch and disconnected from reality? Let him stroke to excitement the 25%-30% of the electorate who still love Bush long time and don't want no nigras telling them what's what. The louder he speaks to them, the more independents he loses to the Dems.

seanflynn said...

On secession:

Even if the rest of the country agreed, any state that seceded would be responsible to pay immediately its share of the $10 trillion deficit, which is roughly $33,000 per resident.

Jen said...

"Phillies beating the Dodgers 8-2"

Crap.

Stephen Morillo said...

Wow, what a great photo, Brett (the Obama in a corner against a blue sky)... wow...

DCM in FL said...

new polling thread now...

Real Joe said...

why is the History channel still broadcasting ?

who the fu** watch History channel ?

Jen said...

Chi said:

"Palin simply belongs on MTV..."

VH1 may be a better fit.

___________________________________

She is the same age as Bret Michaels. Isn't there going to be a Rock of Love III? Maybe she will be on it.

Big Dirky's Fark Quotes said...

a friend of mine today said," I drive around the neighborhood and i see McCain signs and i say to myself, 'well, that makes sense' or i'm just astonished.

azooke said...

How much clearer can Obama be about the Ayers connection? Hillary couldn't make these same accusations stick to her benefit. What does McCain want him to say, "Yes, John, you're right. I wish for the hellish destruction of the United States." I mean, come on.

Like axmxz said, McCain is more than welcome to keep bellowing about this non-issue since it's not helping his poll numbers. The violent racist sentiments he and Sarah Six Pack are doing nothing to quell, however, are truly frightening.

markymark said...

WestVirginia is getting very pale. If Nate's map ends up being right, with all states going as Nate's map calls them now, then the current score would be 375-163. The tough thing for McCain right now, is that if things did tighten up, its gonna happen nationally first, and then he can bring in a strategy for the EC again. But time is running short to put that strategy in place.

I am thinking that we might know thewinner of this election relatively early, compared to 2000 or 2004.

Hank said...

> Nice Hank. If you don't like
> either candidate I strongly
> encourage you to stay home. If
> Obama wins you can join the
> freepers and try to find a state
> to leave the union, AIP?

Oh, I'm an Obama supporter - donated and everything. I sorta liked McCain until the primaries started and somebody slipped him a cup of Rovian Tea. I vote for Repubs now and then - even out here in the deep-blue part of WA - when they are a good candidate and not likely to drag in all the party baggage with them. I never have been a party-line voter.

The Republican party has just become rotten with ideologues, hacks, TV preachers, and carpetbaggers. I expect them to split into a moderate party and a collection of extremist parties, not unlike Austria.

A bunch will join the Libertarians, but the nice thing about the Libertarians (and other similar parties) is that any group of more than two is unstable, keeping them from doing any serious damage.

Obama's temperment and forward-looking capacity for analysis and consideration far outweighs any specific program he is proposing. Events will drive his administration, regardless of professed policy.

Plus, it will be really nice to have a President that can speak in complete sentences and that can pronounce "nuclear" correctly.

Ryan said...

That "Palin 2012" sticker made my blood run cold.

Vanessa said...

Just read that over the next 25 days Obama will spend more in advertising that McCain's $84 Million. Election budget.

Sheesh.

fred said...

new thread

Ted Matula said...

I haven't researched this, but I have heard in several places that McCain has a terrible record in terms of supporting veterans and troops--e.g., leading support against Webb's big vet bill, supporting stoploss policies. I haven't seen Obama's campaign raise this, though, and I wonder if this is something they might do sort of along the lines of saving Keating 5 until McCain started raising Ayers?

Real Joe said...



AP:

Palin says supporters want tougher attacks on Obama

Link

Howie said...

The atmosphere at the Obama event looks bright and hopey. The atmosphere at the Palin event looks dark, red, smokey and evil.

Jeremy said...

I dig the Gov from Above entering the rally with a bus.

Pity it didn't hit into a wall.

Real Joe said...



More Kansans registering as Dems, unaffiliated

Link

David said...

"AP:

Palin says supporters want tougher attacks on Obama"

Oh joy, an even bigger redneck orgasm of hate.

Real Joe said...



McCain Calls On Supporters To Be Respectful Of Obama

Link

boulder-liberal said...

"
AP:

Palin says supporters want tougher attacks on Obama"


Bring it on!

Correa-Jones Happenings said...

I have gotten most of my news today from real joe. Not sure if that is a good thing as it means I have only hit refresh on this site all day.

Drew914 said...

McCain's flip-flopping again? BTW, I love this site.

Freddy1979 said...

Really loving this series of on the road reports. I have never seen such an amazing ground game in an election. Hope you guys can make it to Richmond and see all the great work we're doing here in VA. We're gonna turn it blue!

Rain33 said...

Kia ora from New Zealand -
Anyone who knows me will tell you I am seldom lost for words, but as of his moment I barely know where to start. As a white female from a multicultural country, I am shocked and embarrassed for the good people of the US that the Presidential campaign of "08 has degenerated into such a disgraceful debacle courtesy of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

To have their nasty racist remarks along with their supporters blasted over our airwaves is an insult to people in the international community interested in your election, especially at this time of financial crisis and global unrest. I feel insulted.

Mr Obama on the other hand displays all the qualities and gravitas we would expect from a US President, and after 8 years of Bush and Cheney it could not come soon enough.

I cannot begin to express how we will feel if McCain and Palin manage to pull out a victory, which would clearly be the result of successfully reaching out to people with their barely contained racially charged vitriol. What will that say to the rest of the world? I shudder to think.

eve said...

Palin 2012. Maybe

But it is extremely hard to raise money once a candidate is on a losing ticket.

Ask John Edwards.

Real Joe said...



After days of watching in silence, McCain calms the crowd at a Minnesota town meeting.

“I want everyone to be respectful. And let’s make sure we are, because that’s the way politics is done in America.”

Tells one supporter who says he’s scared of an Obama presidency: “I have to tell you, he is a decent person, a person that you do not have to be scared [of] as president of the United States.”

After a woman calls Obama “an Arab terrorist” McCain interrupts to say: “No, ma’am. He is a decent family man with whom I happen to have some disagreements.”

Real Joe said...

McCain trying to cool down

John Mashey said...

2008 is the first (presidential)"YouTube Election".

Politicians used to be able to talk one way to rabid supporters, and moderate for others, but lately, if you say dumb things, they get uploaded in 10 minutes and made accessible for the rest of your political career.

This has quite a few implications against making videos for Alaska Independence Parties, with witch-finders, etc, etc, and for having thought-out policies and staying calm. Videos of bad behavior can have much higher emotional impact than secondhand writing.

I suspect (exactly) one of the campaigns figured this out long ago.

slag said...

Your image from the podium of Obama's event made me nervous because it showed a lot of empty seats. Glad to know the arena capacity is at 8,200 and that the event was pretty full.

As for the stagecraft and smoke...no surprise there. All Palin does is blow smoke.

John Mashey said...

It's not YouTube, but the "troopergate" results are out:

http://www.adn.com/palin/story/552393.html

Christopher said...


We can do this. Americans have done this before. Some of us had grandparents or parents who said maybe I can’t go to college but my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but my child can. I may have to rent, but maybe my children will have a home they can call their own. I may not have a lot of money but maybe my child will run for Senate. I might live in a small village but maybe someday my son can be president of the United States of America.

Now it falls to us. Together, we cannot fail.


That brought tears to my eyes. Obama is the best presidential candidate of my lifetime.

cincyr said...

As a mother of three, I am horrified everytime I see Palin's baby at a rally. And that's not being sexist. You wouldn't see a male candidate bring his baby to a rally. I feel like she is using her baby to score political points. It's disgusting.

Roger said...

I am starting to think that the problem with Sarah Palin isn't that she is an incompentent, ill-prepared doofus, but that she is among the most vile, vicious, nasty--and power-mad--creatures ever to afflict American politics.

She puts on this gee-golly-willickers act, but don't look at what she says..... Look at what she DOESN'T say:

In her debate with Biden, remember how she robotically steamrolled ahead after Biden's emotional moment recalling the loss of his first wife and daughter?

And now, in these disgusting campaign stops she's made over the last week, stoking the angry mob to scream about Obama "terrorist," "get him", "KILL him", etc., etc., etc..... And what does she say? Nothing. When members of the crowd hurl horrible racial epithets at African-American journalists covering the event, what does she do??? Nothing!

I pray that enough voters in enough states recognize the evil that is Sarah Palin and John McCain, and block their path to the White House. Otherwise, God help us all!!

ic170 said...

Palin 2012

hopefully her prison number?

Ken said...

giant video screens ... fog machines ... huge blue curtain ... bus drove right inside the hall ... "Eye of the Tiger"

Am I the only one who thinks this entrance is straight out of World Wrestling Entertainment? For that matter, her speech has more than a few similarities to a ring interview as scripted by Vince McMahon. The only question left is, face or heel?

Ken said...

John said: McCain got booed at his own rally today when he said that they need to be respectful to Barack Obama.

Ah, yes, the fate of the mad scientist in every 50's B-movie (and every movie ever made for the Sci-Fi Channel). Did he really think he could get the monster to go back into the cage, after letting it out?

Yves said...

Always fun to watch US presidential elections over here in Europe.

If we were to choose between Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin, Obama would get 75+ % of votes. He'd only be tied in ... Russia, and get well over 90% in Holland.

Anyway, fingers crossed for Nov. 4; might take a day off on Nov. 5 so I can watch things unfold live.

Shame I can't donate or vote, but I am confident that the American people will make a wise decision, not just for the USA but also for the rest of the world.

P.S. This site is getting so much media attention even a Belgian newspaper mentioned it on its site. Keep up the good work!

Tefta said...

I think today was John McCain's lowest yet - and I believe he realized that moment had come as well.
Even after all of the hate-mongering and fear perpetuated by his campaign I clearly saw a broken and visibly shaken man today - which makes all of this only sadder.
Palin I have no sympathy for - anyone that can't even understand or handle the power and the trust she was given with the Governors office - they found she violated HER OWN ETHICS ACT - THAT SHE ENACTED - has no business trying to be VP or POTUS - we'd never allow it from a man and she gets no pass for being a woman.
McCain I do feel sorry for - it must be a terrible thing to find yourself without honor or morals and deliberated misleading, disrespectful, dishonest, misinforming, hatemongering and fearmongering campaign....and i think he finally got it today....so sad.