"If it were up to me, there would be no robocalls," offered Chris Schoenewald, Chairman of the Albemarle County Republican Committee. "All the data says robocalls drive up turnout. Personally, I'm skeptical, but if the data says it...."
During a lengthy discussion of the Republican field program in the McCain Victory Center in Charlottesville, Virginia, Schoenewald detailed the year-round work that goes into maintaining and improving contact quality, targeted persuasion, database maintenance and voter registration that, in his view, makes Albemarle County the best Republican operation in the state.
From what we could see, Schoenewald has just cause to be proud. Besides McCain's national HQ in Arlington, the office and its 20-25 people was as busy as any office on the Republican side we've seen across the nation, with a full table of envelope-stuffers and another room of young high school phonebankers.
"We've had a huge turnout from high school Young Republicans," said Schoenewald. On Tuesday night, the night we were there, it was Albemarle High School's turn. Wednesday is Albemarle West's night. The Law Republicans have been fairly constant, Schoenewald noted, but both groups were "kicking the pants out of the college kids." Asked why the UVA Republicans had so tepidly responded, Schoenewald chuckled, "It's UVA!" To have fun as they dialed, several of the female high schoolers tried different accents (the Brooklyn ones needed work).
We discussed voter registration, and the varied approach each party's campaign takes. "Democrats use a shotgun approach to voter registration. Republicans use a rifle." If Democrats are setting up a voter registration table on the Downtown Mall, for example, "they're registering a lot of Republicans." By contrast, Schoenewald said, "we're going after very targeted people."
On the timing of registration drives, Republicans in Albemarle County work the summer months. "May, June, July, early August," said Schoenewald, "September is too long." September and beyond is set aside for persuasion and GOTV.
What impressed us most was the emphasis placed on very high quality of contact, at least in Albemarle County. Schoenewald, Republican Committee Chair since March and Vice-Chair for two years before that, knows what he's talking about. He credits Virginia Delegate Rob Bell with an incredibly disciplined and thorough approach to voter database maintenance.
"We've had a database in Albemarle County for ten years or so. In all honesty, we probably have the most accurate list in the state, better than even Voter Vault." Though he acknowledged Albemarle is the exception in Virginia rather than the rule on this comparison to Voter Vault, ten years of notes collected from door-to-door conversations with neighbors have given Republicans an incredible depth of knowledge about who their voters are, and even what's going on in their lives.
Modeled by Bell and adopted by the grassroots county volunteers, notes banked into the voter database and printed onto canvass walk sheets are extremely sophisticated. "Do they have a bumper sticker? Are they expanding their house? What signs are in the window? Are they repainting? Are their kids going to college?" When a Republican canvasser returns later to that same voter's door, he or she can ask, "'How's Sally doing at Virginia Tech?' Having that kind of database is a huge edge."
Schoenewald emphasized the value of literature drops at every single visit. "If you don't hand that person lit," he said, "you're only doing 10% of what you could have done." Comparing the local effort with the national campaign overlay during presidential years, Schoenewald contrasted the difference in control. "We always prefer doing it ourselves." The local lists are better and more detailed, and when there is more local control in the persuasion it's more effective voter contact.
This explains, in part, why Schoenewald would rather do away with the robocalls. They're just not high quality contacts. "Five to seven contacts to get a message through is the assumption. If we're only doing robocalls then the full seven is probably required." On the other hand, if contacts were simply a combo of personal door-to-door visits and direct mail, "only three touches" might be needed. Quality, quality, quality.
Asked whether they'd gotten any complaints about robocalls, Schoenewald acknowledged they'd gotten "some sporadic" complaints. Those who complained were turned off by the message rather than the annoyance of being called. "We do paid live calls out of Richmond," and other counties have live phonebanks like the one we witnessed in Albemarle. Schoenewald preferred live calls. In any event, he noted, "most county committees can't afford robocalls."
He pointed out that robocalls had come into fashion in the 90s, when technology like Voter Vault represented the new cutting edge for field programs. "We're really seeing a resurgence of high touch (personal) contact," Schoenewald noted. "We need to in Virginia or we'll lose ground."
To that end, he pointed out that locally the presence of the University of Virginia tilts the field against Republicans somewhat. "A lot of people... think Albemarle County will be irrevocably blue. I don't agree it's a lost cause." Indeed, Schoenewald said, Republicans lost by only 899 votes out of almost 44,000 cast last time, and they were optimistic about their registration targeting efforts. "We had 820 registrations just in the Cale precinct. This is a battleground county."
Pointing out the incredible attention paid by Rob Bell to developing a sophisticated, deep database of voter information, Schoenewald said, "Delegate Bell wrote the precinct captain manual that is now used all over Virginia. We have a great team here that knows how to fight."
The McCain campaign is calling all the shots during the GOTV phase, which isn't 72 hours, but "more like a week and a half." In Virginia, at least, both sides are underway for GOTV. "Victory (McCain's campaign) calls all the shots. They said here's the script, here's the call universe," said Schoenewald. 2009 is an off federal year with only statewide gubernatorial and House of Delegates/State Senate seats up for grabs, and "we'll determine our own script and GOTV universe" for those races.
In Albemarle, Schoenewald reported the similar story we've heard all across the country -- Sarah Palin's galvanizing the base. "Before Sarah Palin was announced, it was dead" in the volunteer office. Following the pick, "it was like someone flipped on a switch. We've had days where we've had more volunteers than work for them to do."
Typically, the office accomplishes 600-800 dials a day, but had reached 1000-1200 call/day territory as the final two weeks began. Referring to the final-days focus, "it's almost a hybrid" between working the GOTV universe of favorable Republican voters and the informal three-question ID polling.
Throughout our conversation, Schoenewald emphasized how much fun politicking in Virginia truly was. "A lot of political campaign concepts get tested in Virginia. It's like a little playground. (We) experiment if this works and that works.... We are active every year, so it makes it more coherent." As Governor Kaine also told us the day before, there is a cycle every single year and no real stop in this suddenly ultracompetitive state. Schoenewald concurred. "You can do politics year round, every year. It is so much fun."
As for the Obama campaign here, well, you know the story by now if you've been reading our long series. Between the Coordinated Campaign offices and Campaign for Change offices and canvassing-only and phonebank-only offices, we saw no fewer than five office locations, all thrumming with energy and volunteers. All the offices had workers busy very late into the evenings, long past midnight.
Since we had too much to report today, we'll tell you about our sit-down with Mitch Stewart, Obama for America's Virginia State Director tomorrow. We're in the extreme southwestern part of the state, in Big Stone Gap. Mile 9,122.


368 comments
Anyhing about the Blogger unavailable messages earlier?
Let me be the first to say, sporadic complaints about robocalls are GREAT NEWS! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!
Tick, tick, tick...is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
Cheap imitations are GREAT NEWS!!! For me!!!
MCCAIN VOLUNTEER VICIOUSLY ATTACKED BY BHO PARTISAN
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct/23/mccain-volunteer-attacked-but-someone-yelle/
Do you libs have NO SHAME?
This guy sounds like the first competent McCain-Palin campaign worker that you've come across.
Great report, Sean. One of the best parts of the series imo.
Is that part of real virginia or fake virginia?
I challenge all you liberals. Right now! I'll kill you all.
[Talking about PA in the Guardian]
But Mark Salter, McCain's chief strategist, told reporters in the state on Tuesday: "When we look at our numbers, we think we're competitive here."
Really interesting what he didnt say.
He didnt say we are competitive in PA
He didnt say when we look at our nos we are competitvie in PA
There are two big caveats in the sentence. Its a tell. they know they are miles away in PA.
Oh and I cant be the only person who doesnt like Jack K can I? Cant you shoehorn a Jospeh Heller reference in there somehow.
I hope you guys enjoyed C'Ville. Some excellent person obviously directed you to Bodo's, so that's a start.
Jeff, Charlottesville (and to a lesser extent Albemarle County) is like West Berlin - an enclave of fakeness in the heart of Real Virginia. The People's Republic of Charmarle, if you will.
Intrade is reacting to the polls; IN and MT have turned pink; both have McCain under 60%
YOUNG MCCAIN VOLUNTEER VICIOUSLY ATTACKED BY BHO PARTISAN!!!!
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct/23/mccain-volunteer-attacked-but-someone-yelle/
Virginia could be one of the first firebells on election night. We'll get an idea of how good the polling has been, and begin to see how narrow McCain's possible route to 270 is all in one.
Anyone else see Tom Brokaw on the Daily Show last night by the way? Virtually said McCain's campaign acknowledge that they can't win. (I am super paraphrasing, but unspin what Brokaw was spinning that the campaign had spun to him, and they know!)
Sean, you are a gifted writer. I really enjoy these contributions.
Charlottesville is an enclave of fake Virginia inside real Virginia. It (and Blacksburg, home of Virginia Tech) are two big spots of blue inside the red that is central/southwest VA.
As a UVA Law grad, I like the picture of the law school there. Though I'm less enthused that the UVA law Republicans have been the ONLY enthusiastic Republicans you've discovered so far.
I'm not surprised you found some quality Republicans in VA though. For being a 'red' state, VA tends to have fairly civilized and genteel Republicans in a lot of the state, especially in the historical parts of the state.
One thing for readers to realize about Albebarle County (and the rest of Virginia) that isn't pointed out by Sean:
In Virginia, cities are not part of counties. Thus, Charlottesville, a city completely surrounded by Albemarle county, is not part of the county.
That means that while the City of Charlottesville is overwhelmingly blue (like 80%-20% democratic), those figures don't count for the Albemarle county figures for the election. Consequently, it is important to realize that when Obama goes on to beat McCain in Albemarle county (and he will!) in the election, that will be an important event.
LOL Kelly, it's just completely shocking that real Virginia would stand by and let fake Virginia invade its space. Any chance of it splitting off? How many electoral votes would FV have?
MSNBC Sees High-Def Debut Next Spring
Center for Rural Strategies poll:
http://news.politicswest.com/politicswestnews/ci_10789104
"Obama is leading McCain 46 percent to 45 percent in rural areas of 13 states, including Colorado. That is a significant shift from a month ago, when McCain was leading Obama by 10
...
The poll of voters who live in what the Census Bureau considers nonmetropolitan counties was in the field Oct. 1 through Tuesday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
President Bush won the rural vote by 19 percentage points in 2004."
Good news real Joe...tho, can they keep Olbermann in standard def? Or maybe even go to low def? I really don't need a closeup crystal clear shot of that guy. Or Chris matthews for that matter.
Anyone else see Tom Brokaw on the Daily Show last night by the way? Virtually said McCain's campaign acknowledge that they can't win.
I'd believe that, especially when combined with this news.
Big Stone Gap?? Awesome! Look forward to seeing what's going on in that crazy little town.
more detail for Center for Rural Strategies poll at
http://www.ruralstrategies.org/projects/tracker/2008.3/
The survey polled 841 likely voters Oct. 1-21 from rural parts of key states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.38 at a 95 percent confidence level.
According to the NYT, the McCain campaign has internal polling that shows McCain within "7% or 8%" in Pennsylvania and that's why they keep claiming "we're competitive."
Plus, they have favorable redneck demographics in Western PA. They also hope to somehow keep down Obama's margin in the suburbs of Philly.
Now, none of this makes any real sense of course. 8% is NOT "competitive" with 11 days to go! McCain's hopes notwithstanding, Obama has been organizing like mad in PA and McCain is just relying on his list from 4 years ago like everywhere else.
Well, that list wasn't worth squat in 2004 -- they lost!
It's one thing to argue that "we have the list" in places like Virginia and North Carolina that went to Bush by over 5% in 2004. It's certainly possible that their voter targeting will be right on the money on election day, because of all the work that went into the list in 2004.
I don't believe it! But, Republicans can and do continue to argue it, and will until the election proves them wrong.
But McCain has absolutely NO argument other than "the Democratic governor wants Obama to return to PA! That MUST mean he's in trouble." (Actual quote from the McCain fundraising letter).
They're just eyeball deep in denial right now. It's going to be a very RUDE awakening on election day when all those polls the right was screaming were "wrong!" suddenly aren't.
Oh, well. I suppose there's always ACORN conspiracy theories. "We wuz ROBBED! Where did all the lib-tards come from? You can't tell me that 10% more Americans voted for a socialist terrorist-lover like Obama! VOTE FRAUD!"
"MSNBC Sees High-Def Debut Next Spring"
What took so long?
Florida Poll: Obama Ahead
St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll
Obama 49, McCain 42
Ha ha nice snark by Bill Burton at the end of the piece Andrew posted.
Debunking the Bradley Effect, Again
Senate Projections: Democrats 59, Republicans 41
Massive Minnesota Polling Analysis
How the Base was Won
Right Wing Conspiricist-
That might be a convincing argument about the lib 'attacking' a mccain volunteer, had i not spent the last six months hearing about the exact same thing from your side.
40 obama rally attendees get their tires slashed, office's get bricked, signs get burned in people's yards, and a canvasser was choked and assaulted at a wingnut's door.
Not to mention effigy's being hung, assassination threats, or campaign offices or churches being shot up for being 'universal'.
"I'll kill you all." ???
one. two. three. CLASSY!
Florida Poll: Obama Ahead
St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll
Obama 49, McCain 42
good numbers for Obama
SUSA has a new poll on MN-6 coming out this evening. Can't wait to see this. Bachmann has to be shitting herself.
ABCWashPost
O-54
M-43
Unchanged...
State of the election:
2004 - Bush barely wins by getting a razor thin win in one single state (Ohio)
2008 - McCain is polling behind Bush's % of the vote in ALL 50 STATES (electoral-vote.com). Let's repeat that. There is NO STATE where McCain is doing better than Bush did in 04 (including Arizona and Alaska).
Worst. Campaign. Ever.
Link for real joe:
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008/10/23/395266.html?title=Exclusive+Poll:+Obama+up+four+points+from+last+month
I'd say McCain's internal polls have a significant "Republican Lean" this cycle
MMMMMMM....Pie!
I'm going to celebrate the victory with a nice slice of cherry pie? Anyone else thinkin about pie right now?
How many electoral votes would FV have?
Depends on the boundaries. Fake Virginia Proper (aka NoVa) is 2+ congressional districts. The breakaway Republic of Richmond is another 1. Other enclaves probably add up to 1 more (Charlottesville, Blacksburg, Hampton Roads, etc.) Plus, the new Communist Commonwealth of Fake Virginia gets its own senators...
I'd say at least 6, maybe 7.
excerpt from the St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll
"Also interesting, McCain gets the highest support from the Panhandle while Obama gets the biggest lift in south Florida"
Not surprising. The panhandle is just part of AL / GA.
Do you guys think this mugging in Pittsburgh will have any effect?
I forsee it being used to instigate fear and racism.
Sean. great update. Glad to see a McCain office willing to talk to you, and you proved that you're just looking to see what McCain's operation is doing. NO demonizing, no back-handed compliments, just a description of people working hard for their candidate. I wish them absolutely no luck whatsoever in this effort, but maybe McCain's people will see 538 isn't the Anti-Christ they made you out to be.
Mitch Stewart...now there's a name I haven't heard in a while.
Great field op, hell of a boss to work under. He ran field in Iowa, way back when.
seretse said...
Do you guys think this mugging in Pittsburgh will have any effect?
no
Do you guys think this mugging in Pittsburgh will have any effect?
I forsee it being used to instigate fear and racism.
No. According to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, the person involved refused treatment. I question how much "mutilation/carving" was done.
Hey there, yall. Old daddy is checking in for a short shout. Nate continues to do a wonderful job. Kudos. And let me toot my own horn a bit too. More than a week ago I told yall it was over. Do we need any more proof? Now lets get out there and finish it. We desperately need all the downticket people too. Bless yall. Later.
Drudge hyped up the Pittsburgh incident to something more than it was; he has since toned it down a bit. It is unfortunate and sad, but it was more a robbery than a true political attack and will be viewed as such.
I live in Albemarle County and am a former Vice-Chair of the Charlottesville Democratic Party. I know the local politics pretty well. The local Republicans really do have a great bunch of young volunteers here and particularly in the last few weeks they've been helping to make McCain more visible here generally.
However, this statement about Democrats in Charlottesville somehow screwing up with a 'shotgun' approach to voter registration is ridiculous. Charlottesville went for John Kerry in 2004 by 70%. When Obama volunteers are out there registering voters on the Downtown Mall every day (one block from where I sit), easily 7 out of every 10 random people you could talk to will support Barack Obama. Probably it's even more than that, given that we have a substantial black population that did not turn out in huge droves in 2004.
So what if Charlottesville Democrats are registering some Republicans to vote through their broad effort? The potential votes for Obama that are being gleaned are so massively in Obama's favor that it just doesn't matter.
Mitch Stewart...now there's a name I haven't heard in a while.
Move to Virginia and donate to Obama. He'll e-mail you at least 4 times a week.
This whole thing is typical redstate..Drudge garbage to race bait. They claim Obama aprtisan which is absolte speculation. No medical treatmwnt but you are carved in the face with B...right? I have some swamp land to sell you too.
Here is the O/B response: classy as always....
The Obama-Biden campaign released a statement, commenting on the attack. The statement said "Our thoughts and prayers are with the young woman for her to make a speedy recovery, and we hope that the person who perpetrated this crime is swiftly apprehended and brought to justice."
For a while now there has been talk of a natural tightening of the race, and for weeks now the race has essentially remained stable. I am not saying Obama can't lose (far from it) but I think that a 'natural' tightening is a myth. I don't think polls tightening this close is a natural phenom, I think it comes down to the fundamentals, and the fundamentals are way in Obama's favor right now. If they do move they might well tick up in his favor.
Ras MN:
Obama 56
McCain 41
+15 Obama in MN from Rasmussen.
Jeff:
Mmm, cherry pie! I'm tasting it now!
Is that part of real virginia or fake virginia?
City of Charlottesville is technically not part of the county, so I'd think that Albemarle can safely be assumed to be "real Virginia".
Which reminds me. One of my dogs came from the Albemarle shelter. Wonder if he's turned commie in all the time he's been living here.
Anybody else notice Rasmussen poll in GA today with McCain +5 there was no mention of Barr. No mention in the write up either. If it's 5 point race in a 2 person polled race it's even closer with Barr.
Headline of MSNBC.com right now is McCain saying Obama will say anything to get elected. From the man who says his opponent palls around with terrorists and in the Primaries was proud of voting with Bush and now tries to hide that. (Among plenty of examples of McCain saying anything to get elected.) [Its what politicians do- get over it John, your losing.]
> I'm going to celebrate the
> victory with a nice slice of
> cherry pie? Anyone else thinkin
> about pie right now?
MMMM! How about a nice Colorado Cream Peach Pie when the Centennial State is called and finishes McCain's agony? With a big shot of whisky (the proper Scotch stuff). And if he wins, drink the whole bottle to wake up much, much later.
And a toast to the people of this country that can hold such a critical, hard-fought, strongly-positioned election and still be relatively free of the riots, mob violence, intimidations, rampant fraud and other such stupidities and meannesses that seem so rampant in so many places. I know that the US is not at all alone in our ability to hold orderly elections, but I still consider it a vote of confidence in our way of life that we can do it as well as we do. It's a great reason to be proud of our country.
MysticLaker said...
"Here is the O/B response: classy as always...."
Why did the Obama campaign have to release a statement? They just made this story bigger than it should be...
Please excuse the vulgarity, but it needs to be done.
*butt fucks Mule Rider*
Mule Rider,
I realize your life as a eunuch is deeply frustrating, but at a certain point you need to settle your differences with the world. With your feeble intellectual endowment, your toddler-like rage and your utter inability to engage with your mental and physical superiors, I suggest maybe a job at Chuck-E-Cheese.
Think about it, you can play with all the pretty colored balls, the small children won't pick up on the fact that your high squeaky voice betrays your castrated state, all the free pizza you can eat!
Plus, for a little attention strumpet such as yourself, there will be ample opportunities to prance around squealing "Look at me!" "Look at me!"
I'm glad I could help.
Y'all come back anytime for tea and wi-fi.
Time for some oldies...
peace,
JW
"Drudge hyped up the Pittsburgh incident to something more than it was; he has since toned it down a bit. It is unfortunate and sad, but it was more a robbery than a true political attack and will be viewed as such."
The victim is referred to by the Drudge headline as a "McCain Volunteer", but the source article says no such thing, only that the victim was driving a vehicle with a McCain bumpersticker on it.
1) Albemarle hasn't voted Republican in several years. It went for Sen. Webb and Gov. Kaine by about 60%. Chris Schoenwald better hope he doesn't have the best Republican operation in the state.
2)Its Western Albemarle High School, not Albemarle West.
3) If you register voters on the Downtown Mall in the People's Republican of Charlottesville, chances are 85% of the people you register are Democrats.
4) UVA's been there since the 1800s. Albemarle started going blue in the past ten years. Does not compute.
5) All the UVA students are out canvassing for Obama, since Chris Schoenwald obviously thinks we're lame.
One quibble from a C'ville resident...it's "Western Albemarle," not "Albemarle West."
Why did the Obama campaign have to release a statement? They just made this story bigger than it should be...
Because they've by and large found that getting ahead of these kind of incidents keeps the media dialogue about them more favorable. The Ostrich approach doesn't work when people are tuned in and the media will go after any new toy that comes it's way.
I'm glad to see they have some ground game going....
600-800 calls a day. Ha. I've been working in an Obama campaign office in PA for months. Nightly, each Field Organizers team (of which there are 7) makes about that many. Cute effort, though. Better than what we see around here by a mile.
drives turnout... for the opponent?
Mule Rider's implosion was predicted easily weeks ago.
He was always a troll who was so sure that his version of reality was right and ours was wrong that he was tormenting us with truth that we couldn't handle.
As it gets closer and clearer that we (who have predicted an easy Obama victory) were right all along and that he was, in fact, that one who couldn't handle the truth, he explodes in a fit of emotion.
These emotionally-stunted trolls are everywhere on the internet and they always follow the same pattern.
Question for all:
Will today rate as Obama's best day on Nate's Super Tracker? The current two best days were in the beginning of February, at ~+9 - 9.5. There were also two days around then at ~+8, as there were a couple weeks ago. Today's number suggest Obama at at least +10, right?
Early US Voting Appears to Favor Democrats
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-10-23-voa48.cfm
Early voting 'boosts Democrats'
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-10-23-voa48.cfm
Obama holds edge among early Florida voters
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20081023/BLOG8101/810230284?Title=Obama_holds_edge_among_early_Florida_voters
McCain +5 in Georgia (Rass)
InkStain said...
Male Rider's implosion was predicted easily weeks ago.
He was always a troll who was so sure that his version of reality was right and ours was wrong that he was tormenting us with truth that we couldn't handle.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In other words, she's a typical reich-winger.
"Will today rate as Obama's best day on Nate's Super Tracker? The current two best days were in the beginning of February, at ~+9 - 9.5. There were also two days around then at ~+8, as there were a couple weeks ago. Today's number suggest Obama at at least +10, right?"
No, not even close. The SuperTracker doesn't move like that. At best, it'll slow down the slight tightening it has been showing.
inkstain what's your take on the assault?
Most important Sean, did you manage to squeeze in a poker game at Doug Leslie's place while you were in town?
in a political context I mean.
"inkstain what's your take on the assault?"
As a member of the media, all crime stories should be of local interest only and there is no reason for it to be on the national news.
The fact that the victim refused treatment makes me very, very suspicious. That's a classic sign of a fraud or self-inflicter.
No, not even close. The SuperTracker doesn't move like that. At best, it'll slow down the slight tightening it has been showing.
I'm not saying the Super Tracker will move up to +10, but that today's polling average will rate at least that. I.e. all of those blue dots on the Super Tracker.
"in a political context I mean."
No effect. Most stories have no effect. Even the *big* stories like the Powell endorsement have little to no effect in my opinion.
I'm not inkstain, but I'll take "irrelevant" for 400 please.
Thursday, October 23:
Pennsylvania, SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 41-- Obama +12
Florida, Quinnipiac Obama 49, McCain 44-- Obama +5
Ohio, Big10 Battleground Obama 53, McCain 41-- Obama +12
"I'm not saying the Super Tracker will move up to +10, but that today's polling average will rate at least that. I.e. all of those blue dots on the Super Tracker."
Oh, gotcha. I'm still guessing not quite.
Good post. I hope you'll get more opportunities for revealing (but respectful) looks into the internal workings of the distinguished competition.
"The fact that the victim refused treatment makes me very, very suspicious. That's a classic sign of a fraud or self-inflicter."
Wow so you think she may have tried to make a bigger deal out of this for political gain? Or maybe put up to it?
I'm black and I've seen how easily stereotypes can be promulgated and reinforced via events like these. The reason I ask you guys (I assume most of you are white) is that it's difficult for me to tell what resonates and what doesnt.
UVA's been there since the 1800s. Albemarle started going blue in the past ten years. Does not compute.
UVA has traditionally been a very conservative school. It started moving left in the 1970's (right around the time it started letting people who weren't preppy white men attend), but has only really been "liberal" for the last 15-20 years. And by college standards, it's still not that liberal.
Also, UVA is located entirely within the City of Charlottesville, which is not part of Albemarle County for administrative purposes (they really are distinct entities). So Albemarle only started going blue when C'ville residents started moving out into the county.
Great work, Sean! I'm really glad you're getting to cover a lot of different regions of Virginia; it's so diverse that it's hard to get a good feel for it from just one.
I actually know Rob Bell, though I haven't seen him in years. Too bad such a smart guy had to go over to the Dark Side. ;-)
But on the plus side for Virginia Democrats, Bell isn't one of the Jeff Frederick younger generation who are taking the party so far to the right they've gone into a ditch. If his methods are effective, it'll be interesting to see whether his star rises, or whether he gets sidelined by the young ideologues in the state party.
Picture of the victim is up on Drudge. Is this the Willie Horton October Surprise?
If a mugger scratches a "B" on a woman's face, I doubt it was meant to stand for "Barack", as opposed to another B-word...
The fact that the McCain camp is assuming it stands for Barack is pretty sick.
I either need by 'Todays Polls' or another cup of coffee. Can't stop hitting Cntrl-R. Help
Can't truly wish the "Victory" team luck, but have to respect them - the Commonwealth loves a good, fair fight!
Of course, the fact that my sister is joining me from DC to canvass (and folks are being sent to "real Virginia" from commieland), means we're ready for 'em.
GOTV!
Here's the reality of the robbery that McShame people are saying was a partisan attack:
Pittsburg WTAE CH 4
A 20-year-old woman who was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield was also maimed by her attacker, police said.
Pittsburgh police spokeswoman Diane Richard tells Channel 4 Action News that the victim was robbed at knifepoint on Wednesday night outside of a Citizens Bank near Liberty Avenue and Pearl Street just before 9 p.m.
Richard said the robber took $60 from the woman, then became angry when he saw a McCain bumper sticker on the victim's car. The attacker then punched and kicked the victim, before using the knife to scratch the letter "B" into her face, Richard said.
Richard said the woman refused medical treatment after the assault, which happened outside the view of the bank's surveillance cameras.
The robber is described as a dark-skinned black man, 6 feet 4 inches tall, 200 pounds with a medium build, short black hair and brown eyes. The man was wearing dark colored jeans, a black undershirt and black shoes.
The Obama-Biden campaign released a statement, commenting on the attack. The statement said "Our thoughts and prayers are with the young woman for her to make a speedy recovery, and we hope that the person who perpetrated this crime is swiftly apprehended and brought to justice."
"the woman refused medical treatment after the assault, which happened outside the view of the bank's surveillance cameras."
yep, that's not suspicious at all.
WOW! Another McCain campaign stunt now neing performed by volunteers. Very coincidental that it's in PA where you are betting on racial tensions for your only hope of winning.
Person seeks no medical attention after being beaten, but she is on multiple rightwing websites with a picture. Beaten and kicked "supposedly" but doesn;t go to see if you have broken ribs, concussion, or get a head CT for intracranial bleed, etc.. all perfectly oriented outside of bank camera range and you don't utilize drive thru ATM's in "foreign" city at night. Robbed at knife point and the supposed "carving" is ridiculous minor by the supposed knife. If you tried you couldn't make such minor damage with a knife scratch. Very precise "brutal" attacker that uses their knife so lightly to carve an upside down B. Sound more like trying to carve on your own face with a paper clip and screwed up looking into a mirror getting the orientation wrong.
I am for pie! But I am making the pie so wonderfully posted here by voice that we have called Obama Pie.
That and some bubbly.
But before hard work folks!
I posted this in the morning but if you notice McCain is going to Iowa this weekend where Davis says too that their internals show they are 'competitive'. Based on this plus PA I have now decided that for the McCain camp competitive means--we have to campaign somewhere.
@seretse
I'm not white. I'm a pink color. But I vote blue. :)
Since this is the Internets, you never know what anybody is -- real, fake or whatever. I ran a site of my own for a couple of years and the only thing you could do was determine the content of someone's character by the quality of his or her posts. These Internets are small "d" democratic. And about friggin time!
The trolls, though, are like cockroaches. Except that's being unfair to cockroaches.
wow, you guys really do have your finger on the pulse on this country. Bodo's represent!
What I don't understand is why TIPP would intentionally skew data knowing that it would cause them to lose their self proclaimed "Most accurate pollster" label when they are ultimately off by 5-6 points. What is the real upside for them in this?
This story smells like Joe the Plumber but with a Racial Crime Twist.
It is like Nixon telling America that he will bring order. The same tactic all over again and it happened right before the election. Good God.
Oh, the little eunuch is getting all excited again!
Come one everyone, clap along with the poor little castrated fellow.
Awww, that's a good attention whore.
Silly mule rider, when will he ever learn.
This story smells like Joe the Plumber but with a Racial Crime Twist.
It is like Nixon telling America that he will bring order. The same tactic all over again and it happened right before the election in of all places--PA.
Jack Landers:
However, this statement about Democrats in Charlottesville somehow screwing up with a 'shotgun' approach to voter registration is ridiculous.
Yeah, that seems to be the standard line Republicans use to make themselves feel better. It basically amounts to "they're doing more voter reg, but ours is a lot better." I agree that it's BS.
In addition to the factors you mention, there's the additional one that although some voter registration drives have been completely nonpartisan with no buttons or t-shirts (because the location or event requires it), a lot of them aren't, and while we'll register anyone who asks, relatively few Republicans will stop to talk to a voter reg volunteer decked out in Obama gear.
In a perverse way I actually enjoyed reading that some republicans are performing high quality contacts instead of trashing Obama with robocalls.
Sometimes it's good to have respect for your opponent and their operation.
"Also interesting, McCain gets the highest support from the Panhandle while Obama gets the biggest lift in south Florida"
Not surprising. The panhandle is just part of AL / GA.
This statement is generally true, with the exception of Tallahassee, where I live, which has a 2-1 Democrat/Republican ratio. This is due to the 2 major industries in town: higher education (FSU, FAMU, TCC) and government (lots of lawyers and policy wonks). That said, its a far more moderate democrat than I'm used to on the left coast.
Sounds like McCain is about to "discover" that Barack Obama was on the parole board in Massachusetts that let Willie Horton out, while he as also serving as President of the Harvard Law Review.
The Palin/McCain campaign has been desperately trying to make this election about race. The are despicable.
"Declined medical attention."
Or it means she doesn't have health insurance and can't afford the ER visit.
I was gonna take the "mutilation" report on its word as we had nothing else to go by, but after seeing the photo story is just not plausible. An enraged knife-wielding man very carefully scratches a backwards "B" so as to not even break the skin? I've had more mutilating paper cuts.
"Or it means she doesn't have health insurance and can't afford the ER visit."
Another "teachable moment", brought to you by Barack Obama...
Sexist libs blame the poor female victim.
TYPICAL!
I don't mean to be cynical, and I hope this young lady well for her health, but wouldn't a carved "B" be a little less perfect that what you see. I mean, wouldn't you struggle a bit and see some imperfections....
Short term their upside is more hits to their site. Long term? It's a gamble. If they're right, they get tons of points...
Robo calls already being recording about how Obama has "worked closely" with the mugger...
Hey, my home! Great town. An oasis of fake Virginia in a sea of reality.
That story about the McCain supporter getting attacked is horrible. Unfortunately, this is what a tense, highly polarized election can do...inspire people who were crazy to violence. It should serve as a strong reminder that both parties need to scale the vitriol back.
On the mugging in Pittsburgh, a few things:
It wasn't entirely politically motivated. The woman had been robbed at knife-poing before the idiot that did this saw the sticker on her car;
She wasn't seriously hurt (thankfully), as she refused medical treatment afterwards.
The Obama campaign has already put out a statement condemning the action(s), both the stealing and the subsequent attack.
11, 10, 6, 5, 11
There once was a poor eunuch named mule rider
Who's gaping asshole could not be wider
He was often obscene
In truth rather mean
But as a whore he was quite the provider
Joe Kowalski said...
"Declined medical attention."
Or it means he doesn't have health insurance and can't afford the ER visit.
You must be talking about Mule Rider.
So you guys really don't think this affects the race or plays in to stereotypes?
new WV poll out ?
M47 O45
seretse said...
So you guys really don't think this affects the race or plays in to stereotypes?
haha
no
@seretes...People looking for excuses not to vote for obama have gotten plenty...terroist, muslim, socialist, you name it. it won't make a difference, not one bit....I do wish the young lady well, no matter what happened.
A friend of mine just called to tell me that Colin Powell came and voted early yesterday at the local government center where she works. Bank one more for Obama!
Is there any information as far as witnesses to this mugging/attack
Seretse,
I can understand your concern, but I see the coming harangues about this issue as affecting only the already enraged Palin base. I'd be surprised if there was any actual retaliation --again, if the event even occurred as reported-- far more likely we are in for a treat of racist drivel, grandstanding and hollow demagoguery.
A dubious assault in Pittsburgh doth not a 401k make.
real joe said...
new WV poll out ?
M47 O45
any info on this poll ?
the total lack of swelling is impressive for a black eye
Anyone who's seen the picture of that girl can't possibly take her story seriously.
It's not a partisan observation, it's the fact that; no defensive wounds, nearly impossible to make so lightly with any knife outside of a butter knife with a struggling victim, is either backwards from being done in a mirror or done with him upside down to her begging the question how he restrained her while doing it, just outside of camera view on a busy street and with a wide angle camera monitoring the ATM, and most importantly "engraved" nearly perfect as though she didn't so much as involuntarily twitch while he "carved" her face up.
This is pretty classic attention whore.
Can someone tell me if this is really a close race?
Can't tell with the pundits and all.
Just about time for the daily 6:25 -- 7:10 Poll Update...
Couldn't be more excited.
There are too many coincidences in this Pittsburgh attack not to cause a reasonable person to suspect the possibility of a political stunt. What kind of knife was used that could make such a clean, even and shallow scar in the heat of a robbery moment. Her picture is immediately up on the Right Wing media.
That said, I wish the woman well.
98% chance if Obama wins Pennsylvania he wins.
95% chance Obama wins Pennsylvania.
50% chance if McCain wins Pennsylvania, he wins.
McCain has a 3% chance to win the election.
Is there any information as far as witnesses to this mugging/attack
I don't think that's a worthwhile question; lots of crimes have no witnesses.
It's really not helpful to speculate -- the campaign's response is exactly right. If the story is true, it's terrible and sad. If it's not true, it's terrible and sad for a different reason. Either way, the actions of a supporter do not reflect on the candidate unless there is reason to believe the candidate somehow incited the act.
IN has flipped to Obama intraday on Intrade. Interesting to see how it clears.
so
whats the difference between real Virginia and fake Virginia?
CBS NEWS POLL
OBAMA 52
McCAIN 39
538 is FUCKED!!!!!
nawaid
That is in response to a Pfotenhauer comment last week. I'm assuming you asked that question in seriousness. Kudos on your dead-pan delivery if you didn't.
I don't know what the selection process/criteria are like, but this series has been absolutely incredible. As such, I really think that this body of work is Pulitzer Prize material. No joke. Thanks for this great collection, and I am looking forward to reading in the days to come!
@mulerider
Very nice post today in the Huffington Post from one of Barry Goldwater's grand daughters stating why she finds this current neo-con incarnation of his party so repugnant.
Go here for some quotes from this Father of Conservatism (not Neo-Conservatism) thought on issues of today:
http://www.famous-quote.net/barry-goldwater-quotes.shtml
Can someone tell me if this is really a close race?
No.
Look around on the rest of this site, there's a whole lot of numbers and charts that would answer that question for you with more authority than any of us.
But in short, it's not in the bag, McCain's chances are very very slim, but the outcome still depends on each of us doing our part.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/opinion/polls/main4541781.shtml?tag=topStory;topStoryHeadline
With just twelve days left until Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 13-point lead over Republican rival John McCain, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.
Obama now leads McCain 52 percent to 39 percent among likely voters nationwide, roughly the same lead he held last week. Just five percent are undecided, and more than 9 in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say their mind is made up.
Seretse,
I'm mostly a lurker, but as a white female liberal-for-the-bible-belt (but really moderate), I ain't buying it as affecting the race. at most it comes off as one more desperate ploy that people have tuned out for the past 6 weeks, and I'm not sure it's even going to get much notice beyond election obsessives like us. As far as playing into stereotypes...maybe I'm a naive optimist, but I just don't see it having that effect either. it's obviously an *attempt* to play into stereotypes, but it's not going to go anywhere.
In fact, if it does come out that this was staged in some way (and it does look fishy), women are going to be even MORE disinclined toward the republicans, for the simple reason that women have very little patience for any woman who cries wolf in that particular manner, because it makes it that much harder for real victims to be heard. I think the campaign handled the response perfectly (no surprise), and that will be the end of it.
I looked at the photo... I'm sorry, but it looks bogus. A bad make-up job. I hope I'm right about this, for the girl's sake.
538 is FUCKED!!
538 is FUCKED!!
538 is FUCKED!!
538 is FUCKED!!
pa john said...
CBS NEWS POLL
OBAMA 52
McCAIN 39
good news for Obama
I'm one step ahead Nate! And I have nothing better to do! We can do this ad infinitum!
I'm one step ahead Nate! And I have nothing better to do! We can do this ad infinitum!
I'm one step ahead Nate! And I have nothing better to do! We can do this ad infinitum!
I'm one step ahead Nate! And I have nothing better to do! We can do this ad infinitum!
This whole story reminds me of Susan Smith. Woman claims to be attacked and her kids are abducted by a mysterious black man.
Next we'll see a sketch of the "suspect" that will suspiciously close to Obama.
Hey libs did she make up the black eye she has too?
What a bunch of disgusting sexists!
How many 20 yr old girls carve their face up and give themselves black eyes?
Former Bush Press Secretary Scott McClellan endorses Obama
This whole story reminds me of Susan Smith. Woman claims to be attacked and her kids are abducted by a mysterious black man.
Next we'll see a sketch of the "suspect" that will look suspiciously like Obama.
Mule Rider said...
She was brutally attacked! Why do you deny this?!
Just admit it. You want to round up all the conservatives and throw them into concentration camps.
You want to see them tortured and executed, don't you?!
Well, yeah. Of course we do. It's point #6 of the Democratic Platform. Good thing you Republicans made it easy for us.
So, sometime in late January, after Obama's taken office, he'll release the internet information of the conservatrolls to "Kool Aid Teams" of volunteers. They'll wait until you're sleeping or in a parking lot, and then hit you with bats and tire irons (no guns, of course!) until your arms and legs are broken, then they'll very carefully carve a 'B' with a paper clip on your cheek so it doesn't break the skin. Even as we speak, special teams of trainees are going to surgical school to learn how to do precision cutting so we won't break the skin with a resisting opponent. You know how we Liberals are, can't stand the sight of blood.
So be sure to go around with a gun at all times once Obama's gotten in charge, and shoot anything that moves. Or flee into Canada. Because us Liberals are coming to get you!
Very carefully, of course.
Sure lots of crimes have no witnesses---lots of crimes do---just wondering if this one did.
Just looked at the picture. I can understand why people might be suspicious, but I wouldn't dismiss it. Let's let the story develop before we jump to conclusions.
Male Rider, here is some advise for you, find freeway, go to freeway, play on freeway. Thanks
Isn't "O" the universally accepted 1 letter initial used for Obama?
Just sayin'....
Honestly, I love 538 and I love that you guys have comments, but if you have to shut them down temporarily to find out ways around creeps like "mule rider," I'm fine with that. The discourse is too good amongst those of us who read this stuff seriously to every Joe the Plumber his shot to fuck it up.
Why don't you guys put together forums? This place is clearly the best political resource on the internet, and I'd love to see it continue.
Looking over the picture again, - I stand by my earlier statement. A make-up job. A very bad one at that.
1. THERE IS NO SWELLING! You do NOT get a black eye without swelling. And her eyelids are anything but.
2. Why a second black eye? Was the mugger ambidextrous or something?
3. Refusal of medical attention. Gee, I wonder why? What, not even an ice pack? No cold compress? o disinfectant over the "cuts"?
I call shenanigans.
Best case scenario: It doesn't penetrate the mainstream national media (like the story of the assault in Wisconsin didn't - McCain supporter against Obama Canvasser with witnesses), but is the talking point for right wing blogs.
Next Best Case: Prompts a story on the acrimony in the campaign that includes other known incidents (like the Wisconsin canvasser, or the NC McCain supporter who slashed everyone at a rallys tires)
Bad Scenario: Three day news cycle in fox echo chamber; minor mention elsewhere.
Worst Scenario: "My friends, as the incident in PA indicates, BO has not run an honorable campaign, therefore I am going to dedicate the last week to 100% Rev Wright and Bill Ayers."
Oh, and good job on the verification - you might need to look into IP blocking.
Oh, oh. We're getting some moderation. As of now we have to type in word verificatrion. Looks like the trolls are going to be blocked (which is better than be ing banned).
I sent the following e-mail to IBD, earlier this afternoon (and am awaiting their repose, which will probably be never):
Your poll is suspect. For over a week your poll has been showing that youth are breaking for McCain, now by 3-1. At least you publish some of your cross tabs. But they demonstrate that something is seriously wrong with your polling.
Taking a poll of conservative students at Oral Roberts and BYU might get the result you got, but that's about the only explanation unless you have someone there who's cooking (either the books or meth).
In any event, the accuracy of your poll has been debunked at www.fivethirtyeight.com. Brag all you want that you were the most accurate pollster in 2004. A stopped clock is also correct twice a day. You are now the laughing stock of the polling industry. But keep it up. The RNC will continue to throw money into McCain's race and there will be 60-61 Democratic senators seated in January 2009. You are doing great work for the Republican Party. Keep them suffused in a miasma of false hope.
sfergus483 said...
Isn't "O" the universally accepted 1 letter initial used for Obama?
Sure.
But do you expect either (a) an enraged violent criminal, or (b) someone who makes a backwards 'B' in the mirror, to remember that?
*Fight the trolls, leave a substantive comment!*
I am one of the most timid of timid twice-burned, thrice-shy Democrats, and I am beginning to come to the terrifying, awe-struck conclusion that we may actually win this thing.
To my mind, the main issue will soon become getting to the magic 60,or as close as possible. The second issue will be figuring out what the dems priorities should be once in power to both solve the problems we're facing and be positioned well for a minimal midterm hit in congress and a second presidential term. I know this is more of a polling site than a policy site, but what are people's thoughts? I think that the Obama idea put forth in his Joe Klein interview about a major alternative energy infrastructure project is a good idea on a lot of levels. Thoughts?
*Fight the trolls, leave a substantive comment!*
Former Bush press secretary backs Obama
(AP) — Scott McClellan, President Bush's former press secretary, says he is backing Barack Obama for president.
McClellan made the endorsement during a taping of Comedian D.L. Hughley's new show that is premiering on CNN this weekend. The former Bush administration official said he wanted to support the candidate that has the best chance for changing the way Washington works and getting things done.
He's the second former Bush administration figure this week to publicly back Obama, following former Secretary of State Colin Powell. McClellan caused bitterness among his former co-workers with a tell-all book that criticized Bush.
we can see the winner
> MCCAIN VOLUNTEER VICIOUSLY ATTACKED BY BHO PARTISAN
>
> http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct/23/mccain-volunteer-attacked-but-someone-yelle/
Despicable. I'm willing to take it at face value, though. There's no point in antagonizing McCain supporters/Republicans/conservatives by making it out to be a faked hit (even if it is). Besides, deranged scum exists on both sides of the aisle... not like this is unique to Obamaheads.
Mule Rider -
Here's some sound advice for the next time you see a cute guy and get that scared, angry feeling: take a breath, unclinch your jaw, and let yourself imagine giving him a warm, quizzical kiss.
Trust me, everything will unfold naturally from there, it's no big deal.
@Sarah Clark
The first thing Obama and a filibuster-proof Congress have to do is fix all the messes Bush and his neocon idiots made. 2 wars, a financial meltdown, a big recession. That's gonna take 4 years. But if it's done smart (and I have no doubt it will be), we can get our infrastructure improved and jobs back.
Then we move to health care.
In the meantime there will be 3 Supreme Court Justices to appoint.
And the remnants of the right wing theocrats will be fighting it every step of the way as they flagellate themselves into irrelevancy.
We live in interesting times.
When are the Early votes tallied?
When are the Absentee votes tallied?
If I am watching the TV coverage on Election Night and they start putting up the numbers after a states polls have closed will the Early/Absentee votes already be included in these numbers or are they usually added on at a later date?
"Public Information Officer Diane Richard said police “cannot substantiate” her story, however, and the investigation is ongoing."
The "B" thing, too - there is no way to draw a "B" with smooth curves on someone'cheek with a knife. It would have to be done in straight lines, and it's not. Was he was cutting her with a diamond-edge blade in slow, smooth strokes while she held perfectly still?
Article says the cops did not actually examine her injury, just glanced at it. They should have.
*Sad "Price is Right" music*
Awwwwww.... Sorry, Mule Rider....
Thanks for playing.
Just admit it. You want to round up all the conservatives and throw them into concentration camps.
You want to see them tortured and executed, don't you?!
Well, yeah. Of course we do. It's point #6 of the Democratic Platform. Good thing you Republicans made it easy for us.
1) Elect Obama
2) Appoint Bill Ayers as National Security Adviser
3) Abortions all around!
4) Tax Joe the Plumber
5) Socialist welfare tax cuts for everyone else
6) Republicans to concentration camps, where they will experience "enhanced interrogation techniques"
7) ???
8) Profit!
kelly said...
Just admit it. You want to round up all the conservatives and throw them into concentration camps.
You want to see them tortured and executed, don't you?!
Well, yeah. Of course we do. It's point #6 of the Democratic Platform. Good thing you Republicans made it easy for us.
1) Elect Obama
2) Appoint Bill Ayers as National Security Adviser
3) Abortions all around!
4) Tax Joe the Plumber
5) Socialist welfare tax cuts for everyone else
6) Republicans to concentration camps, where they will experience "enhanced interrogation techniques"
7) ???
8) Profit!
HAHAHAHAHAHA
thank god i jumped ship
According to SUSA, McCain has as much of a chance of winning Pennsylvania as Obama does of winning Kansas.
That is GREAT NEWS!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!
1) Elect Obama
2) Appoint Bill Ayers as National Security Adviser
3) Abortions all around!
4) Tax Joe the Plumber
5) Socialist welfare tax cuts for everyone else
6) Republicans to concentration camps, where they will experience "enhanced interrogation techniques"
7) ???
8) Profit!
I move to add "Show porn to toddlers".
To put that CBS poll in perspective..
Their final poll was a 3 point Bush lead.
Every poll they conducted in Oct. showed a Bush lead. Throughout October only 2 polls after Oct.10 showed Kerry with the lead.
ARG and Fox News.
So 13 pt. for Obama from what it seems a fairly accurate pollster from 2004, should give some assurance to the Obama supporters
Kelly said...
7) ???
8) Profit!
Effing brilliant!
@STepper:
If Obama plans to use a Democratic supermajority Senate to push through Democratic party-line on every issue, then he's not the same Obama who wrote Audacity of Hope back in '05. And that "compulsive third way" shit is probably the biggest reason I support him in the first place.
Also, I think today is the single best polling day for Obama all year.
Cugel said...
"According to the NYT, the McCain campaign has internal polling that shows McCain within "7% or 8%" in Pennsylvania and that's why they keep claiming "we're competitive."...Now, none of this makes any real sense of course. 8% is NOT "competitive" with 11 days to go! "
In 2004, there was a 7% discrepancy between what Pa. voters told exit pollers and what the reported vote was (in the Bush direction, of course). Pennsylvania still has dodgy machines, and while Dems control the state they don't control all the local election boards. The Republicans may be planning to steal 7% of the vote (and spin it as "Bradley effect"), so they think they only need a couple percent of honest-to-God vote shift for the theft to be practical.
1) Elect Obama
2) Appoint Bill Ayers as National Security Adviser
3) Abortions all around!
4) Tax Joe the Plumber
5) Socialist welfare tax cuts for everyone else
6) Republicans to concentration camps, where they will experience "enhanced interrogation techniques"
7) ???
8) Profit!
Also, "Adopt flag burning as a clean renewable energy source."
And "Devour small kittens."
Sorry to jump in now, as I can see this has been discussed a lot already...
"the woman refused medical treatment after the assault, which happened outside the view of the bank's surveillance cameras."
I saw the picture of this woman and 2 things strike me as odd...first the "B" is carved in her face backwards which leads me to believe that she might have possibly done this with a mirror. Second, the "B" is too darn perfect. If an attacker was really carving up your face and you were trying to get away, there is NO WAY they could carve perfect curved lines like that. I'm calling BS on this story.
I totally disagree, Christopher. The "victim" of the fake ATM attack should be prosecuted for making a false report. Of course she refused to allow medical personnel to examine her. Her "black eye" would come off with a little makeup remover and she scratched the initial using a mirror, because she did it backwards. It's amazing and disgusting the lengths Republicans will go to to create faux drama.
christoper,
your lips to the democratic leadership's ears. moderation and focusing on programs that will bring widespread help are what will keep a united gov't from becoming a 2-year wonder. We need to be bold, but not greedy. If the Obama we've seen in the last 22 months hangs around past november 4, then that may be precisely what will happen.
*fight the trolls--leave a substantive comment!*
Guys, seriously, no use trying to discredit this woman in Pittsburgh, just ingore the story, not a big deal.
7) ???
7) Organize terrorist attack
That story is a hoax, IMO.
Outside of security cameras, in a state McCain is placing all bets on, B is perfect, oddly timed, backwards...too many things don't add up.
Of course, if it really did happen, than my condolences go to the woman. But it's just a little fishy, and republicans do A LOT of dirty campaigning. Maybe they're taking it to the next level?
Obama is going to lose libruls. VOTE YES ON Proposition 8!
@moonbeam:
Oh I agree, the police should definitely investigate this thing, given the obvious problems with the report. But playing the whole thing as obviously faked before an official result comes back just seems a bit counterproductive to me.
"In 2004, there was a 7% discrepancy between what Pa. voters told exit pollers and what the reported vote was (in the Bush direction, of course). Pennsylvania still has dodgy machines, and while Dems control the state they don't control all the local election boards. The Republicans may be planning to steal 7% of the vote (and spin it as "Bradley effect"), so they think they only need a couple percent of honest-to-God vote shift for the theft to be practical."
The final RCP pre-election polling average for PA in 2004 was Kerry +0.9 and Kerry ended up winning by 2.5. It seems to me that the most likely explanation for the exit poll disparities was that the exit polls were bad.
If you forget about exit polls - which really aren't as good as people seem to think they are - and look at pre-election polling, there's just nothing the least bit suspicious about the 2004 election.
inkstain: "The fact that the victim refused treatment makes me very, very suspicious. That's a classic sign of a fraud or self-inflicter."
Note also that the "B" is reversed, just as if it was carved by someone looking in the mirror.
What will you libruls do on Nov. 5th? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Try this: put a piece of paper on your forehead, and write on it. Look at the paper - it is backwards. This will almost inevitably happen - no mirror needed.
Obama thugs assaulting an innocent McCain supporter and you morons blame the victim! Wow! The height of hypocrisy here.
McCain/Palin 08
Vote YES on Proposition 8.
tomthress,
Exit polls this year may be notorously bad more than usual. Over 1/3rd of people are expected to vote early. Obama campaign is pushing huge eraly vote to reduce problems and Repub suppression tactics on election day. Obama support will be higher than the election day exit polls show as he banks votes early.
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