10.27.2008

On the Road: Charlotte, North Carolina

“Dean rattled on like this; he was overjoyed and exuberant. He and I suddenly saw the whole country like an oyster for us to open; and the pearl was there, the pearl was there. Off we roared south. We picked up another hitchhiker. This was a sad young kid who said he had an aunt who owned a grocery store in Dunn, North Carolina, right outside Fayetteville… we were in Dunn in an hour, at dusk.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

Early Voting, North Carolina - BrettMarty.com


The first day Sarah Poore came to John McCain's Hickory, North Carolina Victory field office, she felt too nervous to make phone calls. Instead, Poore helped organize bubble sheets. But it wasn't long before the polite young home schooler finished 3d in the state in a Meet-Sarah-Palin calling contest, with 3,000 calls on the campaign's behalf in under a week.

In the month the Hickory Victory office has been open, Poore estimates she's made eight to ten thousand calls. Beginning at noon and going until 7:30 or 8 pm, Poore dials using the sophisticated direct-input-to-voter file phones we've seen in every Republican office from coast to coast.

Both Poore and her dialing partner Karen McGuire said the phones, which replaced the cell phones that dialers in the office initially had to use, made the work easier. Like Poore, McGuire hadn't ever made phone calls for a campaign.

"I was so nervous," said the cheerful McGuire, "I thought, that's like telemarketing." The mother of two, who often brings her 8-year old and 5-year old to the office, said "it helped that my first phone call was a Republican."

While Poore found her way to the office when an close family friend called her mother and her to come help, McGuire saw a local newspaper story that an office was opening up, and now often shows up on her lunch hours to work. "We smile and dial," she beamed. The only downside to her involvement is she might have a a little less in her stocking this holiday season.

"I can't ask for anything for Christmas" from her husband, she said, "because he drove me across the state" to see Sarah Palin in Greenville. That was their bargain. "He put (me saying) it on video."

Sarah - BrettMarty.com


Down in Charlotte, we found an Obama office to compete with Obama's Falls Church, VA office from last weekend. The energy enveloped us from the moment we set foot inside. Each of the 80-90 people in the large office was occupied in a task. Clustered in twos and fives and tens, packed into every corner of the large office space, people of every age and race gathered for canvassing instruction, organized packets, crunched data or dialed their neighbors. The force and focus of the effort would have stunned us, except we've seen those determined faces every single day in Obama field offices.

Russell Crandall, part of Obama's policy team for the last two years who had been knocking doors for Obama on a regular basis himself, stood near the front of the office amid a group of mostly first-time canvassing volunteers and explained how to accomplish the mission. It was his first time training others for the canvassing task. He explained the mechanics: odd-numbered houses and even-numbered houses listed on the walk sheets, where to park before starting the list, literature to drop, what to say if someone needed a ride to the polls, what to do if the address was in an apartment building without access. Crandall stressed correct data capture: "the only way we can get them a ride is if the data gets back."

He also talked about how to handle uncomfortable or even confrontational situations at the door. "It's not worth it," he said, urging the volunteers to simply move on as quickly as possible in those situations, and not to put themselves in any danger. (Veteran canvassers know that door conversations are almost always more polite than their phone counterparts. It's just harder to be rude to someone's face.)

After the training, we talked with Crandall about what he'd seen in Charlotte. He estimated the office would train 75 doorknocking volunteers just that day, just in that one Charlotte office. One thing that struck him was the way the campaign trusted its volunteers to take responsibility if the campaign simply provided the tools and overall direction. "The delegation of responsibility was tremendous," said Crandall.

"Suddenly people who five minutes before hadn't had a connection to a campaign" were now taking on duties and responsibilities for operational details of the ground effort. The inclusiveness of Barack Obama's grassroots campaign is a refrain we've heard from coast to coast during this trip, and no less so in North Carolina, where an incredible number of newly-inspired volunteers and voters are on the verge of painting the state Carolina blue.

Russell - BrettMarty.com


We visited an early voting location not far from the office, and saw lines stretching out of the office and around the corner. We tracked movement and extrapolated the wait to be roughly an hour and a half. Nobody in line left, and nobody appeared anxious to leave.

According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, by Sunday 1,078,710 had voted early in the Tarheel State, compared with only 984,000 ballots in the entire early voting period in 2004. We're only halfway through the early vote. Something big is happening in North Carolina this time, a state George W. Bush carried by over 12 points in 2004.

An observation we've heard repeated in Obama offices across America, Crandall emphasized how beneficial the contested primary had been for building the foundation for record turnout. "We had real hints of it in the primary," Crandall said. The first-time voters the campaign energized for the May 6 vote foreshadowed what North Carolina is seeing today. Crandall remembers thinking "these are NOT your typical primary voters."

That observation rang true to us as we observed early voting in the general. As we race toward the ultimate conclusion in just over a week, Obama's team of volunteers and organizers in Charlotte, North Carolina knows it is leaving everything on the field.

305 comments

Thom said...

First.

I talked to my grandmother on Saturday. A life long republican, she'll be voting for Obama this time around.

coc0nutpete said...

Drudge's redistribution of wealth October SURPRISE!!! IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! .........for JOHN MCCAIN!!!!

PorridgeGun said...

Only today's state polls can save Obama now. And so far they've been pretty solid.

PorridgeGun said...

BTW, I hereby declare today... "CONCERN TROLL DAY"

Andy JS said...

Anyone know any black voters who are voting for McCain?

Vote said...

Is The Attack on syria the October Surprise?


The 4th MN senate Debate


Obama's Senate Coattails

Debunking the Bradley Effect, Again

KMartDad said...

What can McCain do in a week that he hasn't been able to do in 2 months? All indications are that more bad economic news will dribble out this week. Who cares if Obama wants to "spread the wealth"? McBush's legacy will be a whole lot less wealth to spread.

J said...

While most elections tighten toward election day, don't landslides continue to strengthen? Should there be a different model for predicting landslide election days vs normal election days?

Real Joe said...

andy js said...
Anyone know any black voters who are voting for McCain?


blacks vote for McCain ?

wow

Darian said...

Hey, Hickory and Statesville aren't anywhere NEAR Charlotte! I call false advertising!!

Also, Kerouac or no, Fayetteville is on the other end of the state, fellas.

Aaaaaanyway, nice to see the old Queen City getting some attention. I'm trying to figure out where that early voting place is -- is it Central Piedmont CC?

Thanks, 538!

Jaime said...

Not that I should be surprised, but Drudge is completely misinterpreting Obama's quote. He specifically said that the civil rights movement was wrong to concentrate so much on the courts when they should have been concentrating more on the legislature when it came to issues of poverty. God, the Republican party is a bunch of drama queens in hysterics at this point.

PorridgeGun said...

Survey USA (Missouri): Today, McCain leads by 18 among gun owners



GET THE FUCK OUTTA HERE!!!



Let the national and state polling fudging begin!

SHERWICK said...

Breaking News:
McCain is to campaign heavily in Michigan for the remainder of the campaign. Speaking for the first time about the decision, McCain said " My friends, I am only down in Michigan about 30 points. If I gain 5 % a day over the next week I will be the winner!"

DaWolf said...

this post is a good fit to the v verification word: NICEl!


Is the reason that McCain is robocalling so heavily simply that he has no choice as he so few volunteers?

arnieh said...

Shirley Temple Black probably votes for McLame. ;>)

MysticLaker said...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d5910d9a-6a74-4072-8746-9d5234c36359

Mo

48
48

@dawolf . Yes. he is also paying "volunteers"

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/27/8424/4447/771/642984

Real Joe said...

sherwick said...
Breaking News:
McCain is to campaign heavily in Michigan for the remainder of the campaign. Speaking for the first time about the decision, McCain said " My friends, I am only down in Michigan about 30 points. If I gain 5 % a day over the next week I will be the winner!"




HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Michelle said...

Weekend before last three friends and I traveled 7 hours to Charlotte from my home in middle Tennessee to campaign for Obama. We knocked on over 200 doors to get the word out about early voting. Last weekend we spent all day Saturday and Sunday phonebanking to North Carolina for the same reason. We will keep this up through November 4. The Obama campaign in Tennessee is devoting most of its resources to helping get North Carolina in the "D" column next week. I'm going on little sleep and *no* clean laundry....:0)

Cugel said...

McCain clearly thinks he still has a chance, but his thinking is very delusional. Check it out:

"Offered a chance to respond to the suggestion that the McCain campaign is awash in defeatism, a McCain official delivered a decidedly measured appraisal:

“We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good, and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot, but it’s worth fighting for.”


We're O.K. in Missouri, Ohio and Florida? Really? Notice that he doesn't even mention North Carolina where the polling also puts him down by 2% in the latest Rasmussen polls.

It's like he's living in some Bizarro universe where it's always 2004 and you don't have to worry about Red states like North Carolina! He's going to get a very RUDE awakening on election day!

Now you could argue he's just trying to be up-beat, but he could at least say something like: "it's going to be close in North Carolina and we really need your vote this time!" But, no! Total denial!

liforcerenewal said...

I know one repug of African descent, but he lives in Georgia, so he's voting for Bob Barr. Just couldn't bring his sassy ass to "pull the lever" for McSame~because of Palin.
~Special advocate for the Trees...

SHERWICK said...

I stopped reading after 'we have a real chance in Pennsylvania'.
Maybe he meant Transylvania?

Pat Andriola said...

In the SUSA poll of MO today, Obama and McCain are tied. That sounds about right, however, somehow McCain is leading Obama by a point in the age group of 18-34 and Obama is up 5 points in the age group 50-64. That just sounds too fishy.

Missouri is the ultimate backup to victory though (well, maybe Indiana or Montana is, but this one is pretty far back too).

NoVa Commie said...

Andy JS said...

Anyone know any black voters who are voting for McCain?


I think I recently knew one...went on several dates with a republican 3 months ago. Was looking forward to great debate once he admitted he was an R, but couldn't get past "Obama will raise my taxes" even though he knew nothing about his tax plan.

Dumped him (for other reasons), so don't know if he's changed his mind (I'm all in for Barack, but opening conversation with this one again would be too much to ask :)

SHERWICK said...

If this spokesman think they are in trouble in VA and CO, what does he think their path to vitory is?

weinerdog said...

So, in the AA for McCain we have:
- the guy in Georgia
- (presumably) Alan Keyes

My question: anybody know anyone voting for Nader?

newsinOH said...

lifeforce,

Did you know Mc was in Cleveland this am?

Aunt Karen said...

AA for McCain - while I have no inside info, I'd bet Clarence Thomas.

Real Joe said...

sherwick said...
If this spokesman think they are in trouble in VA and CO, what does he think their path to vitory is?


we know its over

PA John said...

@Cugel
McCain clearly thinks he still has a chance, but his thinking is very delusional. Check it out:

To be fair, that's about a week old statement. That's what started the whole thing with them "going all in" in Pennsylvania. But, hey if that's what they want to do - good luck with that!

SHERWICK said...

Who's voting for Nader?
Nader
Nader's mom
Nader's mom's neighbors
Nader's neighborsNader's friends
Nader's wife
Nader's wife's friends

That's about it

Andy JS said...

I would guess that Condi Rice is voting for Obama. I don't know about Alan Keyes, or the guy who was in charge of Ohio's voting last time and helped Bush win.

Matt said...

My sister in CA is probably voting for Nader, but if it were a close race there she would be for Obama.

PA John said...

AA for McCain - while I have no inside info, I'd bet Clarence Thomas.

Lynn Swann, Michael Steele and Alan Keyes, too.

McCain SURGE!!

Elayne said...

I'm fairly new to the site, so forgive my ignorance, but can someone clue me in on on all "GREAT!!! for JOHN MCCAIN!!!" stuff? Some of it seems sarcastic/parody-ish and some of it seems (scarily) sincere, and I keep going back and forth as to which it is. It's not really important, but does distract me as I'm reading through the comments and following some of the great links y'all provide.
Thanks!

Voice of the Midwest said...

The Indianapolis StarNews withheld any endorsement for President of the United States.

This is significant.

The Indianapolis StarNews will endorse the Republican named Satan over the Christ if he was running as a Democrat.

They have eight editors - all Republicans ranging from the Christian conservative wing to the clothcoat economic moderates. They split in the room 4 to 4.

This is as good as endorsing Obama in the eyes of long-time Indiana observers. They never endorsed Roosevelt. They endorsed Nixon three times and had a difficult time defining Watergate as a crime. They defended the excuse of anti-Catholicism in editorial against the candidacy of John F. Kennedy. The Indianapolis StarNews, in the words of RFK, is the most conservative newspaper in the country.

We can cite the shock of the Chicago Tribune or Anchorage paper endorsing Obama. A non-endorsement by the Indianapolis StarNews is akin to an Obama non-endorsement by the KKK or full Obama endorsement by the John Birch Society.

Yeah, they are that conservative at the Indy StarNews.

CZ said...

Regards to Nader, here in San Francisco, I think Nader will do OK. I was running down Harrison Street Saturday morning and saw a two story banner for Nader/Gonzalez. 1st, being CA and second, being SF, not worried about it. I doubt McCain gets within 15 in CA and won't even register 20% in SF

In the states that are close, I am guessing the borderline Naders have learned their lesson. I think that we can all agree that there was substanitial policy differences between Gore/Bush and Kerry/Bush. I trust the arguement that Obama/McCain are two peas of a pod will not wash this year.

Darian said...

Excellent point, Cugel.

NC is by no means a "safe" R state -- and it didn't even look that way in 2004, when Edwards, of NC, was running. Bush pulled it out by 12 pts, sure, but it was not clear that NC would ge Republican until late October at least.

I am quite stunned to see McCain give up on NC, and its 15 EV, to go after PA and its 21 EV, in a dubious, dubious "strategy."

Perhaps McCain's internal polls tell the real story: NC has experienced explosive growth in 8 years in certain cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Winston-Salem; and all are of the high-education, high-skill occupation, high Democratic affiliation variety. Add in the literally dozens of mid-sized college towns that span the state, from the ocean to the mountains, and you have a ton of new, young, Democratic voters.

McCain must have decided NC is already gone.

Real Joe said...

Nader will win CA

HAHAHAHAHAHA

liforcerenewal said...

Yes, that's why the weather is especially gloomy today~God don't like ugly! Likely he'll get booed off the stage in this town!

Eric said...

Imagine being one of these two people:

#1 A pro-life African-American

#2 An elderly caucasian semi-racist, because of the times they grew up, Democrat


Those two folks are kinda stuck.

Voice of the Midwest said...

"Who's voting for Nader?"

Oh, that is another thing I want sent to the political graveyard on November 5 - Nader candidacies.

Anna Banana said...

I've been wondering why your predictions don't have ranges. For example, why not report today that Obama will probably get 351 EV with a range that shows a low calculated by changing the light blue states to red and a high calculated by changing the light red states to blue?

Thanks for a very entertaining and informative blog.

Real Joe said...

AZ polls are not good for McCain

Eric said...

McCain's not giving up on North Carolina! He can't win the election without it. He's simply knows if he wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina probably follows suit. He has limited resources and has to flip a chunk of '04 Kerry votes somewhere.

Real Joe said...

McCain will NOT win PA

jnorthrop said...

Andy JS said...

Anyone know any black voters who are voting for McCain?

Alan Keyes will vote for McCain. I met him once. Does that count?

Aunt Karen said...

@eric

"Imagine being one of these two people:

#1 A pro-life African-American

#2 An elderly caucasian semi-racist, because of the times they grew up, Democrat


Those two folks are kinda stuck."

Not really. I've posted about my dad before (#2 but Rep). He's voting Obama. Because both #1 and #2 may have other factors, such as intelligence, and may not view either race or abortion as their top priority.

Never discount brain power, lol. Really, there are a lot of unengaged voters out there, but there are also a lot of smart people.

MysticLaker said...

Does anyone know about the ground operation for obama in AZ?

liforcerenewal said...

I know many, many Lebanese who ALWAYS vote for Nader~ he would be alright, if he hadn't enforsed all those safety laws for cars w/ stringent mandates~my dad still complains that this is the key reason cars are soo expensive. Maybe he should move to Lebanon, or Syria, he may really win.
~Special advocate for the Trees...

newsinOH said...

lifeforce,

He's gone from here already. Total waste of his time. It's now billed as a "press conference" because nobody was there . . .

Big pocket Butch Fideli was there so I suspect he's just getting money to challenge to Ohio election results. No other reason for him to have wasted a few hours of his life here otherwise.

Voice of the Midwest said...

"Those two folks are kinda stuck."

How about gay Republicans?

That is a group that I said if they still voted for Bush in 2004 despite his campaign manager propping up 12 anti-gay state referenda.

Pro-choice Republicans?

The 45% of evangelicals that run the party as a plurality threaten to pull out of the party if they do not declare the GOP as the "pro-life party" that will only appoint anti-choice judges.

Jonathan said...

SHERWICK said...

Who's voting for Nader?
Nader
Nader's mom
Nader's mom's neighbors
Nader's neighborsNader's friends
Nader's wife
Nader's wife's friends

That's about it


Ooh! Ooh! I know someone voting for Nader! And she's a clown! An actual clown.

I totally respect her vote and her reasons for it, as well as her career choice. But she makes such an excellent addition to that list.

STepper said...

Elayne said...
I'm fairly new to the site, so forgive my ignorance, but can someone clue me in on on all "GREAT!!! for JOHN MCCAIN!!!" stuff? Some of it seems sarcastic/parody-ish and some of it seems (scarily) sincere, and I keep going back and forth as to which it is. It's not really important, but does distract me as I'm reading through the comments and following some of the great links y'all provide.
Thanks!


SATIRE

Eric said...

Voice of the Midwest said...
The Indianapolis StarNews withheld any endorsement for President of the United States.

Another great piece of info. I guess many don't want to be on the wrong side of history.

MysticLaker said...

This is not a full tennesse poll, but it's more great news for john mccain...

http://tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081026/NEWS0206/810260399

Clark Miller said...

@Elayne -

You got it in one. Some of them are remarkably serious, but their remarkable ridiculousness has led the rest of us to give them a good parody. After awhile, they seem to have realized they're over matched and have mostly gone away.

Fatmop said...

Elayne said...
I'm fairly new to the site, so forgive my ignorance, but can someone clue me in on on all "GREAT!!! for JOHN MCCAIN!!!" stuff? Some of it seems sarcastic/parody-ish and some of it seems (scarily) sincere, and I keep going back and forth as to which it is. It's not really important, but does distract me as I'm reading through the comments and following some of the great links y'all provide.
Thanks!


I want to say that it started out with someone being serious about news that was, at best, ambiguous. Seems that now everyone has hopped on the bandwagon of ridiculing that poster. Could be wrong though.

But of course, ridicule is GREAT NEWS!!!! for etc. etc.

SP said...

"Anyone know any black voters who are voting for McCain?"

The conservative talk radio host who asked at one of the McCain town halls when the gloves are going to come off (or something like that).

Real Joe said...

TN is deep red

Bex of Ambridge said...

You're right about Arizona real joe. Electoral-vote today has AZ as BARELY GOP. (White with a faint pink ring around it.)

I mean... WOW! Or, as my verification word would say...
GARGAN.

Harry said...

@ Anna Banana:
"I've been wondering why your predictions don't have ranges. For example, why not report today that Obama will probably get 351 EV with a range that shows a low calculated by changing the light blue states to red and a high calculated by changing the light red states to blue? "

The Electoral Vote Distribution chart gives a pretty good idea of the range of outcomes the model predicts.

Matt said...

SUSA Virginia -

O: 52
M: 43

Certainly looking grim for McCain here.

SUSA Virginia

Andy JS said...

Is Nader on the ballot in any close Obama/McCain states?

I hope Nader doesn't help McCain win any states.

Eric said...

Aunt Karen,
Not really. I've posted about my dad before (#2 but Rep). He's voting Obama. Because both #1 and #2 may have other factors, such as intelligence, and may not view either race or abortion as their top priority.

Never discount brain power, lol. Really, there are a lot of unengaged voters out there, but there are also a lot of smart people.


I understand your point. i'm the one that posts about the slew of right-leaning family and friends i know voting Obama. That said, my wife used to work with 2 pro-life African-American women that voted Republican. One went to Spelman and was extremely intelligent. The other was a nice, church-gong lady in her 60s. Just wondering what they're doing this time. I'm a NY/Texas cross-breed. Much of my family is very liberal. That said, my deceased Grandmother who died last year and would be in her 90s grew up in Houston and East Texas. She's one of the more intelligent I've known and yet, she was somewhat "racist" unfortuantely. I wouldn't say it was her fault as much as a lot of that group of folks is stuck in the times. They're dying off and that's good for less and less racism exists. She always voted Democrat. I just wonder what she would do this time. I really don't know.

OTF said...

Anybody know the list of Rasmussen polls today?

Michael said...

Rasmussen Reports

Obama: 51
McCain: 46

McCain was down 8 yesterday, now down 5. My guess is Rasmussen saw a similar shift in the polls like Zogby did.

MysticLaker said...

SUSA

49 0
45 M

Indiana.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=03d2575c-2264-4ae8-93db-e71692ec846e

Praise Jesus.

SHERWICK said...

Darian said...
... NC has experienced explosive growth in 8 years in certain cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Winston-Salem; and all are of the high-education...

High education cities = McCain's worst nightmare = GAME OVER FOR MCCAIN!

Arnaud said...

More than 1.050.000 have already cast their ballots in Georgia and the AA vote remains at 35%.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

MysticLaker said...

Oh god, that was an old survey.

Sorry.

Tim K said...

Quick quesiton: shouldn't the red and yellow lines in the super tracker start converging at this point? It's hard to tell if they are due to the graph size...

Voice of the Midwest said...

Prediction: no matter who wins Montana, they will win Montana with less than 45% of the vote.

Now consider the landscape and momentum.

LANDSCAPE: McCain is under 50% in polling in MT. Obama is over 44% for the fourth poll in a row. Bob Barr (L) and Ron Paul (I) are on the ballot. Paul won 11 counties in MT in the primary. He and Barr also give libertarian Republicans unenthused by McCain a home.

MOMENTUM: Obama and Paul have large and small momentum movements in their corner in MT. Obama's is overt. Paul's support is covert. Third party polling has not taken place here. In looking at the primary and their history, Montana is a state that could surprise all of us on Election Night.

PREDICTION: Obama 44.7, McCain 44.1, Paul 8.3, Barr 2.9

MysticLaker said...

No, @michael. It's called regression to the mean.

Johnkel24 said...

First, let me say this.
Senator Obama is going to win this election.
Second, it would be a major surprise and most likely warrant investigation if McCain won the election. Why?
Look at the statistics.
How many times has McCain ever led in the polls? Just one week after the Republican Convention, and that was because of the Palin initial roll out. That's it. Obama has led in the polls for months. There has been next to no deviation from that commonality.
Further, by examination of campaign offices it's obvious that McCain has no coordinated ground game or GOTV to ensure voter attendance for the GOP candidate. Even the Republicans admit that Obama's campaign frightens them and sets a new standard in organization and capability. How does one come from behind to win an election you've almost never led in the polls with absolutely no ground game?
In addition, look at the unprecedented trends. Traditional red states are going blue. Also, Obama is repeatedly hosting crowds of 50,000, 60,000, and even 100,000 at his rallies. And this is when McCain's rallies are lucky to muster one tenth that number.
And when in modern history have so many conservatives and GOP party members jumped ship to support a Democratic nominee?
Finally, let's talk about the polls. As we know, we're lucky if 50% of eligible voters go to the polls in many elections. Hopefully this election will show greater turnout. But in any case, if we have that many people not going to the polls on a regular basis isn't there the chance that some of these supposed undecided voters at this late in the game are nothing more than people who really aren't going to vote. Think about it. This campaign has prbably been one of the most scrutinized and spotlighted in history. If at this late hour someone still can't make up their mind on who to vote for, then what is going to motivate that person to go and wait in a long line on election day to vote for someone they can't decide on?
I think our nation is pretty much decided on who they are going to vote for, and anyone who still doesn't know is most likely not going to vote at all. With that said, if you take the remaing statistics of decided voters and factor in the ground game or lack there of for each campaign, is there really any question as to how this is going to end? I don't think so. Sorry to be so fatalistic, but I think a lot of needless worry is happening. Have a little faith and use your heads, people!

OTF said...

Can't wait till RCP adds new Rasmussen AZ poll, when it replaces the old Ras AZ the average will be 6 making McCain's home state a lean. If the yincluded the other AZ poll it would be below 5 avg and a toss up but they won't do that ofcurse. The Repubs at RCP are having a heart attack!

Michael said...

At noon Eastern today, new results will be posted for Arizona. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will provide new numbers for California.

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia will be released.

liforcerenewal said...

All I have left to do is pray...
Please keep up the fight, I'm behind You folks all the way!!! Please let me know if there's something I can assist You with, some homemade meals to the office you frequent??? they have an over- abundance of grub at my local office. This baby (baby Baracka haha) in me is debilitating me & will be the end of me...i can't help thinking what McSame said in the last debate re: the fact that women try to "claim" health of the mother probs all the time~boy was HE wrong!!!
Anyways, I can't really do phonebanking as I'm Irish, and would probably do more harm than good!

Eric said...

OTF said...
Anybody know the list of Rasmussen polls today?

Arizona, California Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virgnia

holgate said...

McCain must have decided NC is already gone.

I don't think so: Palin was out west last night, and managed to bring in around 10,000, who mostly traveled in from the far reaches of the state, and even upstate SC and eastern TN. Of course, if you're coming from outside NC, you're essentially not much value in terms of the electoral map.

BIden's in the state today. It's a true battleground, and the fact that it's NC rather than VA says a lot.

On that note, interesting that CO/VA went light blue on the Chuck Todd map this weekend...

Matt said...

Not a concern troll, but I am disappointed we didn't go into this week with a double digit lead. It would have depressed McCain voters enough to stay home and we could have turned a bunch of states blue--a Reagan style win. I still think Obama's floor is 286 (Kerry+IA+CO+NM+NV+VA), but MO, NC, IN, and MT/ND would have created a nice mandate (still very possible, but my expectations are tempered a little bit with the near uniform tightening in the trackers).

Michael said...

mystic... You don't go from 8 back to back days to 5 without some major movement in the poll.

I don't recall Rasmussen moving 3 points at all in any of their daily tracking results this year.

If it was
+7 [52-45]
+8 [52-44]
+8 [52-44]

Can anyone guess what yesterday's daily # was??

Matt said...

Rasmussen AZ already leaked out earlier this AM...

51-46 McCain

Real Joe said...

intrade

Obama 87.7

make some money !

Andrew said...

Anyone else notice that Obama's number has stayed exactly the same - 50.4 - for four straight days on the RCP average?

That's pretty remarkable, considering the myriad data points that roll in and out of the average on a day-to-day basis.

"Steady as she goes..."

OTF said...

Muhlenberg Tracker PA:
Obama +13

Obama 53
McCain 40

Real Joe said...

any other state polls coming out ?

(except for Ras @ 6 ET)

Elayne said...

Ah - thanks!

RWD said...

"McCain was down 8 yesterday, now down 5. My guess is Rasmussen saw a similar shift in the polls like Zogby did."

Rass has had Obama at 50+ for over a month now, and McCain at 44-46 for the same time. This does not represent any change in the Rassussen polling.

Voice of the Midwest said...

"Is Nader on the ballot in any close Obama/McCain states?"

2000 was a lesson to the far left who abandoned Gore for Nader: it makes no sense.

2004 was a further lesson to the far left who were tempted by Nader: I shouldn't have just voted for Kerry, I should have worked for Kerry.

In 2008, Ralph Nader supporters from 2000 are in the trenches for Obama. The left/center party in the United States is as unified as ever. It may be its' biggest tent since Roosevelt.

Eric said...

It should be noted McCain probably has much less than a 1% chance of winning the election without Virginia. At this point, I'd say his odds in Virginia are probably about 1-2% chance to win. He's falling behind every day of early voting. Bottomline is Nate's 3.3% projection is way too high for McCain.

Real Joe said...

otf said...
Muhlenberg Tracker PA:
Obama +13

Obama 53
McCain 40


McCain Surge !!

p smith said...

To all those Obama supporters contemplating filling your pants because of tightening in some of the national polls. Please, get a life.

It says something that we should be concerned because Obama is ONLY ahead by 5 points in the Zogby and Rasmussen trackers. Obama only needs to win this thing by a point to win the electoral college (and perhaps not even that).

As the debate refocuses this week after a fairly event free weekend, I expect Obama's message of hope and positive politics to trump McCain's message of fear and lies. His speech in Ohio today followed by more huge rallies and a joint appearance with Bill Clinton, will set the seal on a massive victory.

If you have friends who have not voted but live in early voting states, tell them to go do it today. The election is being won as we speak. McCain is already too far behind in Iowa and New Mexico to win and if we keep up the push in Colorado, Ohion, Florida and North Carolina, those states can go blue too.

MysticLaker said...

McCain following drudge for his campaign approach is great news for John McCain.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/mccain-to-attac.html

Michael said...

Tracking Polls:
Daily Kos
Obama up 8
[Daily Lead was Obama up 5]
[Down from Obama up 11 yesterday]

Rasmussen
Obama up 5
[Down from Obama up 8 yesterday]

Zogby
Obama up 4.8
[Down from Obama up 5.3 yesterday]

Battleground
Obama up 3
[Same from yesterday]

So at least 4 of the trackers are out. Two have 3 point gains for McCain, while the other two remained the same and just outside the MOE.

DFS said...

do early voters have an impact on the polling? meaning, are they removed from the pool of voters sampled by the pollster? someone made that claim on another site but I wasnt sure.

If so, even if the candidates are polling close or even, barack still has the edge on early voting

Andrew said...

@michael

You don't go from 8 back to back days to 5 without some major movement in the poll.

True, but the movement here was a VERY strong Thursday for Obama dropping off.

If there was a McCain SURGE!!! on Sunday you can bet Scotty Ras would hint at it in his write-up, but guess what, he doesn't.

Thomas said...

Looks like
R2000, Zogby, and Ras all have big shifts over yesterday Battleground is the same as usual.

Matt said...

michael - Hotline is out as well. No change - 50/42 in favor of Obama.

newsinOH said...

lifeforce:

Go to the O office in Lakewood that's calling Cleveland's west side (ie Fairview in particular) HUGE Irish bloc. In fact, there's an Irish national helping out there with excellent results. Or just plug in the area online. You're more likely to encounter a brogue than you think

and my word here is "redialme"

PA John said...

Weekly reality check time:

Daily trackers comparison - last Monday/Today

R2000/Kos: O+8/O+8
Rasmussen: O+4/O+5
Hotline: O+5/O+8
Zogby: O+6/O+5
Battleground: O+1/+3

Avg. Change from last week: O +1

Simeon said...

About the "great news for John McCain" posts. This started back in the primary using Hillary - it was used to mock the Hillary supporters (and the media!) who tried to interpret every piece of bad news about her campaign into something good. Once the primary ended, it was transferred to McCain.

The worse the news for McCain in a particular thread, the more of these posts you will see.

PeteKent said...

You’re Gonna Lose, Suckas!!!

Current melt down in Zogby and Ras trackers awaits further evidence of Obama collapse in Gallup polling.

It seems America is showing some reluctance to elect an arrogant, socialist ticket to the White House and cede absolute control over the government to the Democrats.

In this extraordinary year anything is possible. Obama has used race baiting as a way to silence his critics, and with his media allies (as to whom the public is fully wise) have so demonized Palin to the point where even her supporters have been cudgeled into silence, that the polls cannot be said to be an accurate gauge of this race.

I put the under/over on the Bradley Effect at about 7% right now, making the race a statistical tie and nudging most all of the red battleground states back into McCain's column.

I have heard that in Murtha's PA district private polling shows Obama getting 2% -- TWO PERCENT! In the primary he has got 20%. Obama is in serious trouble in PA. Ed Rendell knows it. Obama may be getting the message too.

I think we will know on election night very early how the race will go. Maine will be the key. McCain wins it and it is over. If he makes it close -- Libs grab your motion sickness bags and prepare for Presidents McCain and Palin.

Please do not be too surprised: Socialism has never been a winning electoral formula in America. Obama's radicalism makes him all together too risky in these dire times. If only things had not gotten this bad, the people might have been willing to risk electing this mysterious, largely unknown man with the hazy background, strange name and mixed racial and religious heritage to the White House.

But now the stakes are too great.

You are gonna lose suckas!!!!

Eric said...

Michael sticks around at football games after his team is down 40 points because he thinks they might come back. They score a touchdown on the 3rd-string defense and he gets excited. Michael, sundays are almost always good McCain days in the trackers. Look back. Meaningless.

Michael said...

Matt. I do believe that Hotline result is from yesterday.

Their website has it listed 10-23 - 10-25 polling for Sunday 10-26.

You could be right though. The link for today is not up on RCP yet.

LAT said...

PPP has a NC poll comming out today but I don't know the time.

This is getting quite tedious, the repetitive McCain is winning! chatter every time there is movement in the trackers. Obama's huge night from last week rolled of and McCain had one good day on Sunday. Talk to me at the end of the week if this is tighter than 4-5 and Obama is below 50 in all the trackers.

Michael said...

Eric. Anything can happen....

You know it says a lot that McCain was down just 5 in R2000 daily result, considering they oversample Democrats. Their party id gives Dems a 9-10 point party id edge. So even with that, McCain outdid it in that poll.

McCain is definitely down, but like in 1992, something can come out in the last week that could change people's minds..

Bush #1 was up on Clinton before the indictment of a Bush official sent independents surging to WJC.

CameronsCrusaders said...

If only Obama had an event planned in a key swing state with a former President, followed by say a full 1/2 hour of one on one time with the American people. Then and only then I think could he slow the massive McCain surge we are witnessing.

SHERWICK said...

oh wait..!

Andrew said...

Reality check II:

RCP average 10/25: O+8
RCP average 10/26: O+7.6 (down .4)
RCP average 10/27: O+7.3 (down .3)

If Obama's "melt down" continues at this rate (losing average of .35 per day) he will be at +4.5 on election day = ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSLIDE

LAT said...

As usual Sullivan takes a hammer to drudge debunking the latest stupidity about Obama being a communist.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/drudges-latest.html#more

RWD said...

"like in 1992, something can come out in the last week that could change people's minds..Bush #1 was up on Clinton "

No he wasn't.

Bex of Ambridge said...

Sorry to post off-topic but does anybody know if non-US citizens can buy Obama merchandise? Don't want to get anyone in trouble.

Or the stuff at cafe-press etc., that money doesn't go to the campaign right - so I could buy that?

PA John said...

McCain is definitely down, but like in 1992, something can come out in the last week that could change people's minds..

What alternate relaity world do you live in? That was never the case. I worked that campaign. You were in 1st grade. Bush never lead after the convention bounce.

Real Joe said...

cameronscrusaders said...

Then and only then I think could he slow the massive McCain surge we are witnessing.


surprise is coming on election night !!!!

Eric said...

Michael said...
Eric. Anything can happen....

You know it says a lot that McCain was down just 5 in R2000 daily result, considering they oversample Democrats. Their party id gives Dems a 9-10 point party id edge. So even with that, McCain outdid it in that poll.

McCain is definitely down, but like in 1992, something can come out in the last week that could change people's minds..

Bush #1 was up on Clinton before the indictment of a Bush official sent independents surging to WJC.


Michael, you seem like a rational person, not a conservatroll, but I don't know what you're talking about. I remember 1992 well. Clinton had that thing won way, way before the last week. Perot helped, and i recall some stunned Republicans, but the surprise was completely unwarranted. It was very obvious to anyone that pays attention to electoral college math that thing was over way before the last week.

Mule Rider said...

The polls are tightening libs! Looks like hope and change are giving way to reality and practicality!

liforcerenewal said...

Good idea, maybe they like homemade eggrolls, I'm busy making those today~fried in coconut oil, veggie or w/ crabmeat they taste pretty good reheated!
Is it on Clifton near the Starbuck's? or Detroit ave. near Pheonix (can You tell I'm craving coffee)just downtown, I can't recall.

PorridgeGun said...

Michael, you're a twat.



BTW, that's a backdated comment that I forgot to post.

newsinOH said...

bex,

Cafe press is definitely non-partisan. Buy away!!

Real Joe said...

bex of ambridge said...
Sorry to post off-topic but does anybody know if non-US citizens can buy Obama merchandise? Don't want to get anyone in trouble.

Or the stuff at cafe-press etc., that money doesn't go to the campaign right - so I could buy that?


you can buy

jackleone said...

If this spokesman think they are in trouble in VA and CO, what does he think their path to vitory is?

If McCain's people are conceding VA and CO, the only conceivable map that I can see for an R victory would be:

1. they complete their quixotic quest and win PA.
2. They hold NC,OH,IN,FL,MO and NV

This gives them a narrow 273-265 victory.

If that is what McCain sees as his only path to victory his chances of winning are actually way lower than 3.3%

Voice of the Midwest said...

"Socialism has never been a winning electoral formula in America." (PeteKent)

But it is widely viewed on Wall Street as a necessary remedy to their ills at this time?

The terrorist thing didn't work and neither is the socialist thing.

Get your facts straight, Pete. Obama is NOT getting 2% in Murtha's district. Obama is running behind Murtha by 2 points as reported by FOX News.

John McCain IS going to make a comeback. He will come back to get over that 45% ceiling on Election Day that has haunted him since mid-September. The problem is, he needs much more than that and a lot of help in the swing states. He might get 46 to 46.5%.

His problem is that Obama is making a case for 52.5 to 53% and 350+ EVs.

Heather Nordquist said...

Lots of Naderites in NM. I saw a slew of Nader/Gonzales signs go up last week north of Santa Fe. My brother voted Nader in NM in 2000 and 2004. He is converted now, and has already voted for BO. I would guess most of the Naderites are low profile now, but there will still be low single digits in NM on 11/4.

Lorrie said...

Arizona could be possible if Obama's registration/GOTV efforts are being fully revealed in the polling.

One part of me is worried that it's going to be much closer than the polls show (due to voter suppression, vote flipping, and/or latent racism) but the other part is hoping that Obama will actually out perform the polls by as much as 5%. It really seems possible to me.

Lorrie said...

are *NOT* being...

Kirby said...

McCain and his campaign are counting on the Bradley Effect. They won't say it but that's one explanation why they would think they have a chance in Pennsylvania. They probably have an algorithm that takes public polls and crunches them down to "weight" for the Bradley effect. I'll bet they think Pennsylvania is the most bang for the Bradley buck. It's a high EV state that democrats even admit has some racist areas. Are they covertly racist (possibly bringing the Bradley effect into play)? I don't know enough about those areas to know. But that's my guess. McCain is getting behind the Bradley Effect, assuming it exists and he's actually 4-8 points closer than the polls show.

Eric said...

Here are my %s stae by state for an OBama win:

Pennsylvania: 98%
Virginia: 98%
Nevada: 90%
New Hampshire: 90%
Ohio: 85%
North Carolina: 85%
Colorado: 85%
Florida: 65%
Indiana: 60%
Missouri: 60%
Georgia: 50%
Montana: 50%
North Dakota 50%

all other states needed for 260 are 99% or higher.

in other words, McCain's chances are probably less than 1 in 100 to win the election.

RWD said...

"Current melt down in Zogby and Ras trackers awaits further evidence"

O NOES! A "meltdown" to only 51%! Plummeting all the way from 52% yesterday!

LAT said...

Michael you must be the person most immune to logic I have seen post here. Every week you come in and post about how things are moving in McCain's direction and eitehr he might pull out a win or we are delusional in thinking things will look as brightly for Obama s they do at the moment. The state polls that need to move are NOT moving in McCains direction the fact that DKos tracker has his numbers going up in the south do not help him at all to win where he needs to.

You still banking on that delusional citizenship thing or that is the talking point of yesterday and now passe?

Mule Rider said...

I guess once McCain wins, the blacks will begin to riot and loot like they did after the Rodney King verdict! Better get ready! Ironically, they probably will loot and plunder fellow Obama supporters in the process! I don't think they like democracy much!

newsinOH said...

liforce

216-849-0245
Location:
Lakewood Obama Office (Lakewood, OH)
11730 Detroit Avenue
Lakewood, OH 44107

They may have an outpost in F.Park as well but this office should be able to help

SHERWICK said...

Over 34% have already voted in Nevada, NM (37%) and NC - all three states overwhelmingly Dem.
Check it out: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

SHERWICK said...

Over 34% have already voted in Nevada, NM (37%) and NC - all three states overwhelmingly Dem.
Check it out: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Thason Jweatt said...

Scratch Alan Keyes's vote for McCain. I imagine that he is going to find a way to vote for himself:

"Currently, Keyes is the Presidential nominee of America's Independent Party with ballot access currently in California, Colorado, Florida. He has been also endorsed by the Christian Falangist Party of America"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Keyes_presidential_campaign,_2008

RobR TX said...

A quick observation:
Has anyone noticed the strong pattern in the "noise" of any graph of the national poll averages? You can look at RCP's graph as an example on this (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)

It appears that McCain enjoys a small spike every Monday, with an erosion of this spike in numbers over the week. It seems that he nets a small loss each week through this cycle.

Is this just the GWU poll screwing things up, and the timing of the network polls, or do you guys think that some sort of pattern of sampling available on weekends is causing this?

Tyson said...

Warren Court era economic decisions comments= October Surprise

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... Boy, the GOP is desperate.

Their VP pick couldn't even name a Supreme Court decision aside from Roe v Wade and now they want to criticize Obama's interpretation of an entire era

What a bunch of fannies

Laura said...

Sean, If we'd known you were in Charlotte we'd have loved to have invited you out for a beer! I'm sure you're already out on the road but if you're here tonight email us at charlotte at drinkingliberally dot com.

Laura

Subterranean said...

If you trust Nate's pollster ratings at all, you've got to think Rasmussen's 31-day equilibrium of +5-6O is pretty much the state of the race.

I don't understand why so many posters here think of voter psychology as such a fluid preference!

Just take a look in the mirror. If you've preferred Obama for the last month, is there any chance you're changing your mind now? If you've stuck with McCain for the last month, is there any chance you're bailing now?

shadowguidex said...

Obama: 51
McCain: 46

"McCain was down 8 yesterday, now down 5. My guess is Rasmussen saw a similar shift in the polls like Zogby did."

Yeah ok, and?? Add the numbers together...that's 97. That means there's 3% undecided. Lets just say for arguments sake that McCain gets all of them..it's still:L

Obama 51
McCain 49

All the movement is on McCain's number, not Obama's. I'll take a 51-49 victory any day (of course I anticipate a 52-48 or worse for McCain).

Eric said...

This whole socialism garbage is so stupid. It speaks to the stupid in the American people to make that argument. There's nothing remotely socialist about any of Obama's platform. It simply not anarchy like W. and Cheney created. Taxes back to what they were under Clinton and less than they wre under Reagan for the rich is not unfair. Just pretend W. and the last 8 years never existed. Obama comes to the rescue with a big tax break for everyone making under $250,000. Instead of trickle-down economics. Bottom-up.

Mule Rider said...

The ONLY reason Clinton won in 92' was because Perot was syphoning off republican votes! He was the incumbent in 96' and Dole for all his efforts sucked as a candidate, hence the reason he lost in a landslide!

PorridgeGun said...

Wouldn't it be ironic if Battleground and IBD/TIPP bounced Obama's average back up to where they were? I know, don't bet on it. AP/Dunkin' Donuts will be double digits for McGains.



Regardless of how much Obama is leading McCain, Chuck Hagel should get off the crapper and endorse. Today, in fact. If he doesn't in the next few days, then I don't want him anywhere near an Obama Administration, not even if his job is walking the dog.

Heather Nordquist said...

@sherwick
It's even better than that in NM. The 37% are only in Bernalillo County (where Albuquerque is). That doesn't include the rest of the state. I wouldn't be surprised if we had 2x that many cast.

Voice of the Midwest said...

"If Obama's "melt down" continues at this rate (losing average of .35 per day) he will be at +4.5 on election day = ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSLIDE"

Thursday things will flatten out at a +7 or so and win by 6.75% nationally.

There will be a missed story in a few states of right-leaning third parties affecting the results in a few states Obama will poach beyond the blue/light blue/white states that Nate & Co. have identified.

I am no arch-liberal, but I am a Democrat. My wife faults me for being a serial moderate. I love the science of politics. I can look at numbers and accept them regradless of result and in full acceptance of reality.

Joe, PeteKent, and others who are holding on to the tenuous odds that McCain can pull out a full house in the face of a blue straight from Maine to Iowa, the west coast, and even in the southeast...

Wake up and pull up your pants....your partisanship is showing.

PA John said...

Is this just the GWU poll screwing things up, and the timing of the network polls, or do you guys think that some sort of pattern of sampling available on weekends is causing this?

Obama *usually* does a little worse on weekend polling, though it's not consistent. What usually happens with RCP is a combonation of trackers doing their usualy contraction and expanding, and RCP drops off single national polls that cause the averages to rise during the week, then fall off at the start of the week. this in particular will happen again when the Pew polls drops off.

Andy JS said...

Wow! Early voting in Georgia has already seen 1,056,352 voters cast their ballot. In 2004, the total number of votes cast in GA was 3,301,875. That means about a third of the number of people who voted in 2004 have already done so. But I guess the total turnout this time will probably be over 4 million.

Pat Andriola said...

Ed Rollins in a CNN article:

"I will vote for McCain, but I do so knowing he has run one of the weakest presidential campaigns in modern times and is probably going to lose big.

I support him because I think he is a courageous man, a tested leader and a man who can direct this country through the tough times ahead. I also believe in what he stands for, even though he has not articulated it as well as I might have liked.

But unless some unforeseen event occurs, I believe McCain's quest comes to an end in a week."

Very critical, and was oh so close to an Obama endorsement.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/26/rollins.historic/index.html

sfergus483 said...

Important to remember that it likely takes 49% to win the national popular vote, maybe less, with Barr, Nader et al getting 2-4% of the vote.

PA John said...

The ONLY reason Clinton won in 92' was because Perot was syphoning off republican votes!

Perot hurt Clinton more than he hurt Bush. Clinton was polling over 50% until Perot jumped back in. Clinton's numbers dropped and Bush's number stayed the same. nice try thoug.

Sreenu said...

@mule rider, you said "The ONLY reason Clinton won in 92' was because Perot was syphoning off republican votes! "

This has been debunked several times over.

1992:

Exit polling indicated that Perot voters would have split their votes fairly evenly between Clinton and Bush had Perot not been in the race
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE0DB1F3FF936A35752C1A964958260

An analysis by FairVote - Center for Voting and Democracy suggested that, while Bush could have won more electoral votes with Perot out of the race, he would not have gained enough to reverse Clinton's victory.

http://www.fairvote.org/?page=1640

sfergus483 said...

Every study - both exit polls and post facto reviews - showed that in both 1992 and 1996 Perot drew evenly from Clinton and Bush or Dole.

Had Perot not been running, Clinton would have had 53% in 1992 and 55% in 1996.

OTF said...

Rasmussen Polls Today:

AZ: McCain +5
CA: Obama + alot

FOX/RAS:6pm ET
CO,FL,MO,NC,OH,VA

shadowguidex said...

"Wake up and pull up your pants....your partisanship is showing."

I don't mind their partisanship, I just dislike their ridiculous attempts to distort obvious reality, and their obvious attempts to piss off people who come here for clear information.

You must have a really shitty life to warrant coming on these blogs just to start fights, rile people up, and try to piss off people. Honestly [mule, pete, michael], your lives must just suck shit - it's evident in how often you're here acting like asses or actively promoting ignorance. Disagreeing with reality doesn't change reality, no matter how hard you try to make it so.

Joey said...

I have a question:

If you opt to vote with a paper Absentee Ballot on election day in lieu of using touch-screen voting, does the ballot get counted as if you had voted on the machine? Or do the absentee ballots not get counted?

(I am specifically asking about the deal in Georgia if anyone knows. But if there's a general answer I'll take that.)

Heather Nordquist said...

According to BO campaign, these are the NM number so far:

All Voting

DEM 178,216 (50%)

REP 132,505 (38%)

OTHER 42,461 (12%)

Total votes: 353,182 or 45% of the total votes cast in NM in 2004 (775,301)

Those were the numbers as of 10/24

PeteKent said...

"Regardless of how much Obama is leading McCain, Chuck Hagel should get off the crapper and endorse. Today, in fact. If he doesn't in the next few days, then I don't want him anywhere near an Obama Administration, not even if his job is walking the dog."

I love the Stalinist thinking of the Obama camp.

BTW -- y'all can have Chick Hegel: we don't want him!

PeteKent said...

And, please, take Andrew Sullivan too!

newsinOH said...

joey,

I believe that a paper ballot must be counted just as an electronic vote by law. It is not a provisional vote, which is subject to post-election review.

I may take longer for your paper ballot to be counted but, depending on your state's preparedness, it should be counted that evening (or early morning depending how that all goes!)

PorridgeGun said...

One of the reasons I haven't shat on Rasmussen today, which is unusual for me, is because Obama hitting his presumed ceiling of 52%/+8 lead over 2 days was the Powell endorsement. Rasmussen has been slower to respond to trends this year.


Saying that, what exactly is being attributed to +3 for McCoot? None of these pollsters offer any explanations, just unexplained speculation. I doubt even Nate has any answers.

MysticLaker said...

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/

Good reading.

Mule Rider said...

PA John,

I call bullshit! Look at how many Republican votes were cast for PEROT! LMAO! History tends to DISAGREE with YOU!

"The Bush campaign was not helped by the emergence of billionaire Ross Perot's independent candidacy, which Perot personally financed. His "United We Stand, America" citizens group promised a White House dedicated to patriotism, candor, honesty, and a balanced budget. Dissatisfied voters of all stripes flocked to his call, creating one of the most powerful third-party movements in American history. Although Perot drew support from both Republicans and Democrats, he probably hurt Bush disproportionately more than Clinton, owing to his harsh attacks against the incumbent and the timing of both his departure and re-entry into the 1992 campaign."

http://millercenter.org/academic/americanpresident/clinton/essays/biography/3

Thason Jweatt said...

From electoral-vote.com:

"Due to the enormous importance of this year's election and the relative satisfaction of the electorate with the choice offered, 2008 is going to be a dismal year for third parties. In 2004, Ralph Nader polled 3-5% much of the year, but ended up getting 0.38% of the vote. Presumably people who liked Nader were willing to tell the pollsters they would vote for him, but when push came to shove, didn't do it."

Let's call it the Nader Effect from now on! :)

ungske - that word verification speaks to me for some reason...

terphenyl said...

@Eric
My 88 year old grandmother, other than not having racist tendencies, will always be a #2 because she and her family were rescued by FDR. Having suffered through the first Great Depression, she would never vote for any Republican, ever. FDR's "socialist" programs kept food on her mother's kitchen table through WPA jobs, and for those conservatives who say "Yeah, WWII really got us out of the Great Depression," I not only agree, but add that WWII was government deficit spending and wealth transfer on a scale Roosevelt could only dream about. Modern Conservatives have somehow missed this.
And remember, every vote for Obama means we are all just a bit closer to seeing Sean Hannity's head explode on national television.

shadowguidex said...

"BTW -- y'all can have Chick Hegel: we don't want him!"

You know, you're party is hemorrhaging high profile people like mad these days. Pretty soon, it's gonna be you, Palin, and a bunch of wingnut social conservatives who have had the intelligence homeschooled out of them.

Aunt Karen said...

@joey

A provisional ballot and an absentee ballot are two different things. I think your question is about a provisional ballot cast at the polls because the voter's registration data is in question.

The Georgia Secretary of State website should be able to answer that question for you.

It's a state by state thing, so there's no general answer.

The ORIGINAL and ONLY Mule Rider said...

Some impersonator has been having a field day with my moniker for several days now...mostly being a homophobic, racist, ignorant, babbling twit.

Keep wasting your time clown. Tarnish my name all you want. It makes no difference. There are clearly two different groups in here, anyway. There are those who know you are a ne'er do welling sock puppet who isn't worth the effort in keystrokes to respond to...and it's plainly obvious you do not represent the true ideologies I espouse...and there are those who continue to let their fire get stoked by your satirical and parodical, albeit insidious and spiteful, comments on "my behalf" who reply with their own hate and venom and would act no differently if I were actually on here engaging in intelligent and rational discourse.

Bottom line is: you're wasting your time either way except to perpetuate the existence of a "Mule Rider" on this site. If you are that much of a tool and have that much free time to mimick me day after day with no original thoughts of your own, then be my freaking guest.

Simeon said...

Funny how the folks who push the "Bush only lost because of Perot" BS never can provide any facts or numbers to support this theory. Just one more instance, I guess, of reality's well-known liberal bias.

Vinny said...

RCP actually did include the AZ M+2 poll, but apparently it's a democratic pollster. Odd, electoral-vote.com doesn't think so.

Anyway, not to sound concern trollish, but we all know Obama will win under fair circumstances. But what if McCain tries to steal the election? He saw Bush get away with it, he knows he can too.

CommieChemist said...

I love this!



Esquire’s 10 Worst Members of Congress
Monday, October 27, 2008
Esquire presents the 10 Congress-critters most deserving of being voted out of office this year:

http://www.esquire.com/features/esquire-endorsements-2008/10-worst-members-congress-1108

Pretty evenly split by party - 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats, and 1 Independent (guess who!).

My fave is Michele Bachmann, who made their list even before she totally went nutso on Hardball. Here is Esquire’s description of her:

One gets the impression that if, in the name of “traditional values,” Bachmann could rescind the vote for women, she would. Her vacant, wild eyes recall a doomsday prophet, or one of Charlie Manson’s girls. Equal parts religious hack and party hack, she’s got spunk and not much else.

sfergus483 said...

The confusion about absentee ballots might come in part because some states - particularly those without early voting - do NOT count them election night, but rather in the days after.

We hear this sometimes in a close race when the outcome is not determined for a few days after.

PorridgeGun said...

BTW -- y'all can have Chick Hegel: we don't want him!



Thank you. Now get on the phone and tell Chuck that it's time to follow Colin Powell's lead.

Mule Rider said...

Simeon your stupidity is showing...go here:

http://millercenter.org/academic/americanpresident/clinton/essays/biography/3

BWAHAAHAHAHAHA

Davy said...

I see the PeteKent sockpuppet is back.

What is it about conservatives? Obama has consistently said he isn't raising taxes. He's letting the tax breaks due to expire in a couple of years expire. Sorry all of you rich bastards but it's time you pull your weight. You got us into this mess in the first place.

TAX AND SPEND!
TAX AND SPEND!

THE SKY IS FALLING!
THE SKY IS FALLING!

CUT AND RUN!
CUT AND RUN!

I think this country is a little tired of this BS.

the old perfesser said...

Mulerider's racist, bigoted comment at 10:44 is over the line.
This is my first time to request it of this site, but that statement deserves getting bounced!

bryen193 said...

More Perspective.

Pollster.com now categorizes 268 electoral votes "Strong Obama". McCain would have to win all the states categorized "Lean Obama" and all the tossups. He would now have to win:

NH, CO, NM, OH, FL, NC, GA, IN, MO, ND, MT, NV

All of them.

Heather Nordquist said...

@joey
According to GA Sec. of State

An elector may cast an absentee ballot in person at the registrar's office during the period of Monday through Friday of the week immediately preceding the date of the election without having to provide a reason.

I don't see a provision for that on election day.

RWD said...

Captain, the tricorders are reporting the presence of numerous trolls in the area.

Set phasers for IGNORE, Mr. Spock.

The ORIGINAL and ONLY Mule Rider said...

the old perfesser,

My user name has been hijacked by an idiot. Someone has been doing an awful parody of me for several days now and is using extremely racist, homophobic, etc. taunts to perpetuate their sick ploy.

Mule Rider said...

The ORIGINAL and ONLY Mule Rider said...

Some impersonator has been having a field day with my moniker for several days now...mostly being a homophobic, racist, ignorant, babbling twit.

Keep wasting your time clown. Tarnish my name all you want. It makes no difference. There are clearly two different groups in here, anyway. There are those who know you are a ne'er do welling sock puppet who isn't worth the effort in keystrokes to respond to...and it's plainly obvious you do not represent the true ideologies I espouse...and there are those who continue to let their fire get stoked by your satirical and parodical, albeit insidious and spiteful, comments on "my behalf" who reply with their own hate and venom and would act no differently if I were actually on here engaging in intelligent and rational discourse.

Bottom line is: you're wasting your time either way except to perpetuate the existence of a "Mule Rider" on this site. If you are that much of a tool and have that much free time to mimick me day after day with no original thoughts of your own, then be my freaking guest.
---------------------------------------------

A sock puppet saying I'M the sock! Funny shit! Prove your the "original" I have proof I'm the original, how about you? LMAO

the old perfesser said...

I'm in North Carolina. A friend told me that his co-worker's grandmother has never voted or even registered, but she wants to vote for Obama this year. She's really anxious about the long ballot, however; her grandson wanted to teachher about how to vote straight tickets, but he decided that if her real reason for voting is to support Obama, he would relieve her by teaching her that she doesn't have to vote on all the other races and ballot measures, so he showed her how to complete the ballot her way, and he'll drive her to the polls today for early voting.
That's one more Obama voter in the 60+ demographic!

Simeon said...

@ fake mule rider

"Simeon your stupidity is showing...go here:

http://millercenter.org/academic/americanpresident/clinton/essays/biography/3

BWAHAAHAHAHAHA"

No numbers or proof to back up your "theory" at that link, so my point is proven, yet again. Thanks!

Neil said...

SHERWICK said...

Who's voting for Nader?
Nader
Nader's mom
Nader's mom's neighbors
Nader's neighborsNader's friends
Nader's wife
Nader's wife's friends

That's about it

I have it on good authority that Nader's mom is voting for Obama, and his wife is undecided.

Mule Rider said...

The ORIGINAL and ONLY Mule Rider said...

the old perfesser,

My user name has been hijacked by an idiot. Someone has been doing an awful parody of me for several days now and is using extremely racist, homophobic, etc. taunts to perpetuate their sick ploy.

------------------------------------------

...says my sockpuppet! LMAO!

Davy said...

BTW: I'll take Chuck Hagel. You can have Lieberman.

Kurt said...

Link about why the polls are off and McCain has a better chance than most polls indicate:

http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/

PeteKent said...

You dems are so arrogant. What you don't realize...McCain is going to STEAL the election! Why do you think he's so confident? Why are you libs living in your own little world? Do you ALREADY forget 2000 and 2004? Fine by me! HAHAHAHAHAAH

MCCAIN LANDSLIDE...FROM STEALING!!!

Heather Nordquist said...

@petekent

I second that you can have Lieberman, and would be more than happy to have Hagel on our team.

Real Joe said...

kurt

LOL

PorridgeGun said...

PA John said...

Weekly reality check time:

Daily trackers comparison - last Monday/Today

R2000/Kos: O+8/O+8
Rasmussen: O+4/O+5
Hotline: O+5/O+8
Zogby: O+6/O+5
Battleground: O+1/+3

Avg. Change from last week: O +1





After the week McCain has had, that's pretty disturbing, at least in respect to the 2-5% of morons out out there who can shift at any moment. Any other country, and Obama would be +30 ahead.

Mule Rider said...

simeon...

Go to the link I posted and read with understanding...okay?

The ORIGINAL and ONLY Mule Rider said...

Uh, for one thing, your blogger ID says you've only been a member here since "October."

Anybody familiar with my name and my comments knows I've been posting stuff since June/July.

That, and the fact that the blogger ID I'm using now would match those comments from way back when if anybody is so inclined to make a 3rd party verification.

Mule Rider said...

Kurt said...

Link about why the polls are off and McCain has a better chance than most polls indicate:

http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/

-----------------------------------

Thanks KURT! Great news for America!

Steve_OH said...

@Kurt

So tell me, how is it that a third-hand report of offhand remarks from an anonymous statistician from an anonymous polling company is supposed to be more credible than a dozen pollsters who post their data every day?

[My word is "clatin." I think that's something I'm already taking for my cholesterol.]

newsinOH said...

Diageo-Hotline-poll

Obama/Biden: 50%
McCain/Palin: 42%
Undec: 5%

--For the first time ever McCain and Obama are tied on the question of who's more prepared to lead. A week ago (10/20), McCain was ahead on this question by 8 pts.

--Congressional Democrats have expanded their lead over Republicans on the generic ballot question, with Democrats now up by 10 pts. 47-37%. On 10/20, Democrats had a 5 pt. lead.

--The number of voters who say they've cast early ballots continues to rise with 15% of the sample now saying they have already voted.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/24-26 by FD, surveyed 879 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

RWD said...

Yes, I definitely believe some un-named person quoted on a blog is much more of an expert than all of the professional pollsters combined. No question.

Joey said...

I'm sorry I should've been more clear.

I AM indeed talking about absentee voting. Georgia has early voting, but it is touch-screen voting. My friend in Georgia doesn't want to vote absentee because she fears they won't count them. Since I believe some states don't count the absentee ballots unless the race is close in the state, I'm wondering if that is true in GA. One would think that since they have early voting, any absentee ballots that come in by election day should be counted to be part of the tally on Nov. 4th.

beamman said...

Call me a concern troll, but this old interview where Obama talks about "redistributive" justice has me freaked out, especially following on an apparently brutal weekend on the polls (Zogby and Ras now +5, and the Sunday sample even on dailykos +5), where the only "meme" that seems to have been relevant over the last days was the "socialism" bulls^&t.

The Obama camp's responses I've read (so far) has been far too complicated, professorial and wordy, and, frankly, don't really shoot down what will be McCain's key theme: that Obama wants to "spread the wealth" like a "socialist" (or "communist").

The Obama-team defense is that Obama was being critical of the courts engaging in redistribution, and that should be left to the political branches. BUT THAT IS GOING TO BE EXACTLY McCAIN'S POINT!!: The Repubs aren't stopping at the judicial activism issue, they are making hay out of "socialism" even through legislative/executive action!!!

Heather Nordquist said...

@kurt

That article might be relevant if the Dem turnout weren't exceeding 2004 levels. The likely voter models that use higher Dem numbers are correct this time around. Just look at early/absentee results so far to verify.

shadowguidex said...

The real Mule Rider is socially conservative but fiscally moderate-to-liberal, and seemed truly torn between those two positions. The dickhead who has been posting under his name for the last few days sounded like a total conservative ideologue in all things.

PA John said...

Original Mulie..

I have been telling everyone that.

The sock puppet isn't even that funny.