10.06.2008

On the Road: Bloomington, Indiana

“The bus roared through Indiana cornfields that night; the moon illuminated the ghostly gathered husks; it was almost Halloween. I made the acquaintance of a girl and we necked all the way to Indianapolis. She was nearsighted.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

One Day Voter Registration - BrettMarty.com

Today was the final day of voter registration in Indiana, and we'll have the final numbers for you after the official tally comes in, but here in Bloomington we learned from Obama student GOTV coordinator Jim Snaza that nearly 11,000 Indiana University students have registered to vote since August 15. Approximately 1,000 came in just today (pictured).

I asked Jim and fellow IU SFBO (Students for Barack Obama) coordinator Neville Batiwalla how they'd gone about registering students, and they described an evolving process, built on the campaign's learning from lower-than-hoped-for student registration numbers in the Texas and Ohio primaries. Jim, a senior who joked that he was failing all his classes for all the time he spent on the campaign, personally registered 798 students, and hoped he'd win a statewide contest to win an Obama-autographed basketball. Glumly, he reported that his 25 today had been bested by his roommate's 100, and he worried he wouldn't wind up meeting Obama. Here's hoping that whoever wins the contest, Obama stops to shake Jim's hand too.

Like Alex Max in Durango, and presumably all over the country, high school freshmen are leading the way to register high school kids as well as phone bank or canvass nearly every day. We spoke to Colin Diersing, a freshman at Bloomington South, about his involvement. He'd come in one day during the primary to help do data entry. As with every volunteer who comes to an Obama office, he was asked which time and date he could return.

Soon, an organizer asked him if he'd like to try phone calls. As is near universal, his first few calls had him a little nervous, and Colin spent ten minutes or so getting his call script comfortably into his personal voice. Then he was off to the races. At his high school, a few students got together to start the Obama group, and then each person brought two friends, and so forth, until the student group had a dedicated staff of 10-25 who regularly call and knock. Often they hit near 2000 dials in a night, the same as one of the three McCain Las Vegas, NV offices in its entirety.



As was the case in Lafayette and Lake County, there are no McCain offices to visit.

On the whole, the massive voter registration drive and the routinely packed field offices lead us to believe Obama has a strong chance to pull an upset here in the Hoosier State. A war with David Letterman is not going over well in this state, as McCain's internal Indiana pollsters would be forced to confess. We'll be back in the state for Obama's visit to Indianapolis after a brief drop down to Belmont University for tomorrow night's debate.

Tomorrow there are two other significant announcements, one involving Nate and one involving Brett and our trip. We look forward to sharing another liveblog from the road, at approximately mile 6000.

Landscape - BrettMarty.com

190 comments

Nickname unavailable said...

Hey, Sean. Wake Nate up. The celebrity! We need our stats fix. NOW!!!

Another great report, BTW.

Ben said...

Sean, I heard that 2 polls released today (SurveyUSA and Suffulk) showed Obama ahead in the Commonwealth of Virginia by 10% and 12%. That could be a big story... hint, hint.

Justin said...

I was excited, someone said new post and I was expecting a polling update darnit

Ben said...

Interesting that Virginia and New Hampshire were tied all year, but now Obama is pulling ahead by double digits or close to it. Meanwhile, Obama was ahead in Minnesota all year by double digits or close to it, and now MN is tied.

The irony!

STepper said...

Crap How did I become "nickname unavailable." First post in and I'm anonymized!

Great pics, too, Sean.

Where are our daily polls? Where is the 90%+ for today.

Nate! Damn it. Stop palling around with Olbermann and get back to your base!

Jon said...

I live in Toronto. But as a political junkie, i've decided to go down to one of the swing states for the week of the election. If I was to go to one state, which one should it be?

Matthew said...

I just hope that the announcement about Nate isn't that he's given up on this site due to his grief over the Cubs losing.

Becky Sharp said...

>>Obama was ahead in Minnesota all year by double digits or close to it, and now MN is tied.

Unless you follow the Star Tribune in which case Obama is up by a thumping 18% in MN

Matthew said...

Jon,

From Toronto, it'd seem that OH or maybe PA would be the clear choices. NH is a bit of a drive, and anything else is probably not worth getting there.

Justin said...

@Becky

I'll go with the Star Tribune to combat my worrying about the Ayers fiasco

Lani said...

Saw you on Countdown tonight Nate.

As usual, you did a great job.

Congratulations!

Ben said...

BTW, I love the On The Road feature and applaud this site becoming more than just a compilation model of statistics gathered from external sources. But I really believe that people would appreciate these features more if you posted them at night with the polling update automatically occurring every morning. :o) People like to read new stories about new places, but they LIVE for new polls. hehe...

Jon said...

Also, distance is not an issue. Prior to my post I've been deliberating over Virginia.

Michael said...

Yay! Bloomington! As a displaced Bloomingtonian living in Puerto Rico, this brings me some homesickness, but -- I know Colin Diersing! I'm happy to hear the Diersings are involved in Obama's campaign.

And I cannot believe I hadn't connected the dots about Letterman. Damn if that isn't going to cost McCain the state right there. If my dad's in Obama's pocket, I do believe we're going blue for the first time in my memory.

namebutler said...

Watch out for many of those names to "disappear" from the voter lists. The smearing has started and now its time for the other repub tricks to appear.

Justin said...

GRR...
Watchin AC360....im getting very angry at McCain/Palin

Lani said...

Stepper, I don't appreciate you yelling at Nate. ;-)

He's my friend.

pakaal said...

Y'all are doing a great job, it's a distinct pleasure to read these diaries. Keep up the good work!

Ben said...

Jon, go to Ohio. That's a good bet for where the "cheating" will occur if there is any in this election. Black people not being able to vote, votes being miscounted behind illegally locked doors, etc.

Ohio is also a good bet to be at least fairly close, unlike Michigan or Pennsylvania anymore.

Lani said...

Early voting started in California today.

Voting or Obama/Biden tomorrow

mc9cain said...

Sean,
You are a beautiful writer. Whatever the topic (and most of them would be considered dry) you make every word interesting and enjoyable to read. That talent is especially hard to find on the internet blogs. Nate is really, really good too but doesn't compare to your writing, IMHO.

John said...

New poll from West Chester University/NPR in Pennsylvania:

Obama 52
McCain 42

Not a surprise, but more confirmation that Pennsylvania has pulled away from McCain.

Becky Sharp said...

Justin

Oh I never worried about MN. Some things are just meant to be, and always are.

CG said...

These road trip diaries are really great... they'd make a fantastic blog on their own even if they weren't part of this poll-watching site. Keep it going...

Wesley said...

Reading these On the Road blogs are better than any day of good polling. Keep up the excellent work Sean and Brett!

Fwiffo said...

Watch this video. Pay attention to the kid in the red shirt. On November 4th, I will know what he feels like.

cool said...

yeah so Indiana has voter ID laws, upheld strangely by the Supreme Court. Yet Obama will still win there? kick-ass!

Ben said...

Jon, if distance is no issue do come down to Virginia. It's an amazing dichotomy down here: the DC suburbs like Arlington and progressive college towns like Charlottesville versus the arch-conservative religious nuts found in places like Lynchburg and the more traditionally conservative military-industrial complex in Norfolk and Virginia Beach.

Virginia's liberals are extra-liberal, its moderates are radically centrist, and its conservatives are extra-conservative. It's fun to watch.

Redemodent said...

Becky,
San Fran?
Me too!

Selenops said...

When I first started reading this site (just as Nate became unanonymous and forsook his nom de plume--personally I think he should have kept it, like Atrios), I was drawn to it by the modeling Nate did. When Sean began to post, I wasn't that interested and found these posts a bit of a distraction.

I have since come to love these posts that reveal a whole world of campaigns I'd never seen before. This travel series, with Brett's wonderful photographs, has been something I very much enjoy reading. I could see this dimension of the site continuing in some form after the election, adding significantly to the value added of the site once the election-related traffic drops off.

On that last subject, I hope Nate spends some time writing posts about the ways in which the model was successful and unsuccessful, and how it will be refined. I think Nate's just starting out with something here that will become even more illuminating in future elections.

Kelly said...

Jon,

Come on down to VA. You're living in the land of socialized medicine, you'll fit right in with the communists.

newt said...

Welcome to Bloomington! Good to have had you.

Kennyb said...

Seems like the campaign could use you in Ohio and Virginia, Jon, IMO.

M said...

Jon,

It depends if you are white, black, other,... lol

Irradiatus said...

Hey - you're on my tv right now, Nate! with olbermann

spaceandy6 said...

Wow, looks like Nate is gonna be on Colbert.

http://www.interbridge.com/lineups.html#CR

punditmoi said...

OK, talk me down, people. Should I be concerned about low early voting turnout in OH?

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gmJpgsrR27lwSUQ24_WSSrU0W-JwD93L8H1O0

Correa-Jones Happenings said...

ugh, I have been trying to post for weeks trying to change my Blog name, oh well whatever! I just want to say that I am an addict to the site and have the TV on during debates while clicking refresh to read the blogs and comments, I am so upset I didn't get to add my 2 cents. Since I am stuck with this name you will see me posting like the regular I feel I am. BTW I am in FL, 31 and registered to vote for the first time this year for Obama. I would recommend coming to FL since it seems we are touch and go, but VA may seem better, lots of stereotypes that hopefully get broken.

Jeremy said...

Should I be worried about the underwhelming turnout in Ohio so far?

Justin said...

@Lani
Vote against Prop 8! Please! Be honored that you can vote for an issue that is so close to my heart. I am a 20 yr old male who has been living with my BF for 2 1/2 yrs...the thought that I couldn't see my partner if he was dying in the hospital makes me sick to my stomach. I live in Wichita KS where I am overlooked and shoved underneath the rug...if more states become more accepting of a same-sex relationships maybe one day I will be able to file for a domestic relationship with my partner for some sort of protection under the law.

Quadrivium said...

I'm in Bloomington--welcome! Great to see the coverage.

The local paper has almost a full page of political letters to the editor today. Of the ones that explicitly make their preferences clear, the tally is 13-0 for Obama. Throw in three others that seem to lean without saying so directly, and it's 15-1.

But... this is the bluest city in Indiana. Kerry won only four of 91 counties in 2004, and Sean seems to be seeking those out. If you go to nearby towns like Bedford or Martinsville I fear you'll see a much different picture.

Sedi said...

That last, cryptic paragraph of Sean's is intriguing. What could the news about Nate be? And does the announcement about Sean and Brett's trip have anything to do with the flap involving the McCain folks the other day? This is like a soap opera...

Jon said...

That would be sensible. As a senior, I plan on applying to UVA, U of Richmond, GW and possibly George Mason (for political science). So I figure I can go visit the campuses while I'm there.

RedHawksO4 said...

This is a great report. I've spent some time in Bloomington, and it definitely is the liberal oasis of southern Indiana. It's always been an untapped resource, since the state has largely been ignored. Great to see this progress in 2008.

Google Search Insights Into Election Trends

hobie88 said...

Hey Nate - just watched you on the replay on Countdown. Nice work!

Gotta promise us something though - when KO has you back on Nov 5 and the results look just like what you predicted, you have to promise to crack a smile. :-)

mc9cain said...

That Ohio early voting is only talking about people who BOTH registered AND voted. It isn't about people who just voted.

I would say that's a good sign as the Obama campaign had done so much leading up to today in getting people registered.

pygmy_owl said...

Wow, Justin's right on. I'm smokin' mad about this garbage on CNN right now. Drew Griffin just did a completely irresponsible smear piece tracing the paths between Ayers and Obama. It's entirely bogus. Guilt by association is a long established fallacy.

Also: just saw a bullshit ad put on by rightchange.com.

Jinnantonix said...

I went to college in Bloomington and was born/grew up there. It's pretty far too the left like many university towns but it has a substantial 'salt of the Earth' constituency. It regularly elects Democrats to the House but just as regularly elects Republicans. I find it strange that McCain would abandon the 9th district...

2much2lose said...

Biden needs to come back and attack Palin. He needs to talk about the Alaska Separatist Party that she and her husband belong to that hates America. C'mon Biden.

I totally respect that he needs to observe his Mother-in-laws passing but after that he's got to get back in there and attack!!!! No more being nice to Palin because she is a girl. Get her!

Justin said...

@pygmy owl

My thoughts exactly...it's almost as if CNN wants this trash played out so that this comes to a true horse race just so they can bump their numbers up...absolutley disgusting.

johnny said...

@Jon from Toronto,

My biased advice would be to visit my hometown of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It's a pretty doable drive which can be done in 5-6 hours depending on traffic. The city is also big enough that you'll find plenty of stuff to do and it's incredibly affordable.

Downtown will be buzzing on election day, but if you want to see a lot of young voters, the neighborhood called Oakland, home of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon, is five minutes from Downtown.

Be sure to grab a few pints at Smokin' Joes or Fat Head's on the South Side for me!

William said...

@Justin

We are all voting against that crap.

There are some good anti-8 ads running and No on 8 is floating in cash (PG&E and Steven Spielberg made huge donations).

2.5 years? What are you waiting for! Pop the question, take a road trip and get hitched!

One$Earned said...

Nate,

Great job on Count Down.

Anxiously awaiting the latest Polls and extremely concerned about the Bradley Effect. I would say the BE will be 3-5 percent across the board.

Joe said...

Did you see Nate on Oberman? He did Great

Justin said...

@William

Thanks for your support! Lol as far as the road trip goes, your forgetting, I've endured 8 yrs of Bush economics, I can't afford it, lol

Anne U. said...

Anxiously awaiting the latest Polls and extremely concerned about the Bradley Effect. I would say the BE will be 3-5 percent across the board.

They have discussed this extensively on this site. You can search for it. They have determined the Bradley effect is no more.

John said...

Nate will be on The Colbert Report tomorrow. He's a celebrity now.

Sean said...

I know I'm not going to be the only one to say this, but there is no Bradley Effect.

Calm Down.



Where's Inkstain?

Jen said...

Maybe Nate's big news is that he is dating Alyssa Milano. She likes baseball players, maybe she likes baseball stat guys too?

I can't believe I am this impatient for polling info.

William said...

@Justin

Can't afford to get married? Oldest, lamest excuse ever!

We legalized gay money...er..ah...marriage, you need to come get hitched.

mc9cain said...

I think the big news about Nate is that he's going to be on Colbert tomorrow night.

I think the big news about Sean and Brett are that they are going to West Virginia and going to comment that it might become a toss up state.

Sedi said...

"When I first started reading this site (just as Nate became unanonymous and forsook his nom de plume--personally I think he should have kept it, like Atrios),"

This comment got me thinking: it would be really neat for Nate to do a poll of when people started coming to this site/following his work. I think that would be fascinating. I actually started reading Nate's work on DailyKos the week before Super Tuesday and have been a fan ever since, including the opening days of fivethirtyeight.com. Although I didn't post for several months, I remember the initial comments that were dominated by math enthusiasts who critiqued Nate's model and made suggestions. Those early posts often had fewer than twenty comments. Then there was the wave of people posting as "Anonymous" which got really confusing, as it was cumbersome to respond to Anonymous @2:43 and such. Then we got user names for everyone, and as far as I can tell the site kept growing steadily until the sock puppet infestation led to the splintering off of many stalwarts of the site (many of whom have never returned -- we miss you, filistro et al.). Perhaps this phase is the post-Nate-as-celebrity period of the site, as he does more and more media coverage and Sean's On the Road trip continues to blow away 538's regular readers.

Idle musings, I guess, as we wait for an update like pathetic addicts lining up for a fix.

moondancer said...

Nate your a star. I'll rub out Chuck for a quarter.
That EV vote distribution chart is UGLY for Krusty and the thugs in his clown car.

One$Earned said...

No BE, OK I'll take your word for it, but there are four intense weeks left. Couples have gotten married and divorced in less time.

The glass is half full at least on this site.

^5

eve said...

Jon, Pittsburgh sounds good based on Johnny's info.

Virginia or North Carolina would be a good choice, too. It's more of a surprise that either is a swing state. I would pick a university town whichever state you pick.

I would probably go to Colorado. Wonderful place in the fall.

moondancer said...

mc9cain

It should be. With the exception of racism, their interests and Obamas card fit very nicely. Plus its a strong union state.

newsfromOH said...

Okay, here's the good news/bad news about OH. NO, you shouldn't be worried about the "low" early voting numbers. Those were only the people who wanted to register AND vote at the same time. Most registrations have taken place long ago and continuously. Early voting can still take place by mail. Many still want to show up at the polls and see their ballots go into the boxes, though!!

Second, there shouldn't be anything like the lunacy of 2004 since Blackwell (Sec of State) was kicked out along with all other state Reps. Columbus is led by Dems. Cleveland, Dem stronghold, has Dem, minority mayor and a seemingly competent Bd of Elections.

Still, the Repubs tried to block voters last time. Locals will be prepared to stop it and, having volunteered at the polls to stop the Repubs last time, the voters were ready last time and this time, if they try again, the Repubs will likely end up on the wrong end of a brawl. (And if that happens, the city would back the voters, guaranteed).

Now the bad news, other than the urban areas (excluding Cincinnati), Ohio is Appalachia . . . redder necks never lived . . . How deep is it? Will they starve for their racism or will they secretly vote for a change???

BTW, this site is HEROIN, damn you!!!! I'm going to need rehab soon!!!!

stop_the_stutter said...

This is great!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMn6z6o3YCw

Jason said...

So.. Y'know. Wisconsin.. It's a battleground.

America4US said...

Hello, everyone!

Just signed up here, love this site! I was tired of reading the blogs on Democrats.org, they get too nasty at times. I've also looked at Pollster.com too but find this site way more fascinating! Obama/Biden is America's only hope. McCain has nothing to offer America and Palin in my thoughts is a dangerous person. Obama has to put the nail in the coffin in the debate tomorrow night. Is it about the economy? With the stock market tanking, I'd like to here what McCain would do to repair the economy!

STepper said...

Remember, everyone. Just before the "Today's Polls" Post there will be a change to the map on the right and the stats on the right and left. So

BE PREPARED

Juris said...

To whoever suggested that the "On the Road" stories appear at night and the polling updates in the morning: Get Real! There are folks here who wouldn't sleep all night without their daily polling fix for a nightcap. If they did fall asleep they'd set the alarm for 4:30 AM (Eastern) and sit a vigil on 538.com waiting for the AM update.

Maab said...

@ JON (FROM TORONTO):

If you come to VA, come on down to the Richmond Obama Office. It is the Obama State Headquarters, and we will be having a watch party all elction night. It will be phenomenal.

1208 W. Marshall St
Richmond, VA

Not to mention U of R is about 15 minutes away!

Anne U. said...

@NewsfromOH,
Check out Buckeyestateblog. They have internals from the OH polls, and Obama is doing very well in these regions. Strickland's really helping, too.

Maab said...

@ NATE:

I sent you an e-mail about the CBS College e-Polling. It is very interesting!

mc9cain said...

If you like some really cool jazz while you wait for the 90% number :) here is Chris Standring from London with "Love and Paragraphs"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDK41hXY9GQ

bigdayqueen said...

CNN just showed McCain and Obama masks for Halloween....Onama outselling McCain 57% to 43%

kcflood said...

COME VISIT MUNCIE, INDIANA! BALL STATE (LETTERMAN'S SCHOOL) HAD A BIG FIGHT ON IT'S HANDS ON GETTING AN EARLY VOTE LOCATION AND THE REPUBLICANS BLOCKED IT! COME ON UP FOR A FRIENDLY VISIT

Bull Schmitt said...

I wouldn't put too much stock in the early Ohio voting, as I understand it there was only one location in each county where you could both register and vote. As Al Giordano put it - "ant's work" shuttling people back and forth. Maybe someone can answer if there are substantially more early voting places open for those already registered?

As concerns Minnesota, kos had a post a couple of days ago showing that McCain has outspent Obama about $1,000,000 to $100,000 on the airwaves in MN, so the race could be tightening up there. (Remember that McCain is capped at $84 million for his entire post-convention campaign) I'd suggest following McCain and Palin's movements to see what states they are actually competing in, a la Barracuda Spice's emergency appearances in Omaha and Florida.

Today's polls suggest she'll be off to Virginia and N. Carolina very soon ;)

Patrick said...

Justin said...
"...it's almost as if CNN wants this trash played out so that this comes to a true horse race just so they can bump their numbers up...absolutley disgusting."

So true. Earlier tonight, in an effort to belittle Obama's regisration efforts in NC and VA, I saw Jessica Yellin (with some prompting from Campbell Brown) make the brilliant statement that "New voters rarely vote." ACTUAL QUOTE!

Mike Durham NC said...

Ok, it's been 3 days of polling since the VP debates, 2 days since McCain's officialy nastiest campaign ever released the hounds ( and pigs with lipstick), and Democrats are looking good in Rasm and Gallup National tracking polls. The campaign's new documentary is genius, McCain's past associations but connected to actual events today, has been a smart and tough response from the Obama campaign. North Carolina is looking good, Kay Hagan is ahead, but Perdue is struggling. Not perfect but it feels good thou

Kelly said...

@Bull Schmitt, re Palin in VA & NC:

Next Monday and tomorrow, respectively. But not at all because McCain/Palin are losing those states. She just wants to see the country. Kinda like the recent stop in Omaha.

One$Earned said...

I'm truly multitasking, The Rachel Maddow show, MSNBC, Monday Night Football ESPN, fivethirtyeight.com and I'm in Google Earth and at Panoramio uploading photos.

Monday overload and wanting more.

llywrch said...

One reason the regulars have been dropping away is ... all of the comments one has to read before posting. Sometimes everyone doesn't go there any more cause it's too crowded.

Geoff

Michael said...

I can't believe so many of you are whining for the polling update like toddlers whining for more candy. lol Come on, be respectful and patient. We aren't paying Nate, so let's appreciate the work he does, whenever he gets to it.

In the meantime, have a look at an article that will interest many of you:

Can Obama's Grassroots Army Win Missouri?

mc9cain said...

Kelly - LOL!
And she needs to see about shoring up the economy there and other things like job creation. Also.

Ian Burns said...

Totally off-topic, but yesterday was election day in Brazil. As much as I hate our system in the U.S., Brazil really takes the cake in the "silly season" department.

Between two months of having the radio and tv channels taken over for a couple hours a day by political ads, to candidate theme songs that will be stuck in my head for life, to my father-in-law trying to trick all his employees into voting for his favorite candidate (you select a number, not a name), I don't think I'll be scoffing at the way we chose our elected officials. As long as Obama wins that is.

Sean said...

one$earned

you have one up on me, I'm not doing anything on Google earth

Subterranean said...

I'd be a lot more concerned if the polls hadn't given the first debate to BHO, apparently on the strength of McCain's hostile body language and demeaning comments.

I know Charles M. Kozierok expects a strong performance from McCain tomorrow. But I'm doubtful...why shouldn't we expect a more desperate and scathing performance to be even less well received?

J said...

Justin, have no fear - Prop. 8 will go down in flames. And out-of-state couples are flocking here to get married! :o)

As goes California, so goes the nation. It's only a matter of time before the rest of the country accepts same sex marriage. It will slowly make its way throughout the country. California is 10% of the population of the entire country. When same sex couples here move out of state, they will be petitioning to have their marriages accepted. So SS marriage will eventually be a done deal throughout the country. It's just a matter of time.

NO ON PROPOSITION 8.
NO ON PROPOSITION 4.
OBAMA/BIDEN.

Jedimom said...

I really agree about CNN creating the news instead of reporting it. They did the same thing during the primaries. They gave Hillary credibility--even when she could not possibly win. Now they seem to be adding fuel to a false fire. Please!

This is my first post.--Great site

Lani said...

The MSM already has the headlines ready for tomorrows debate:

MCCAIN WINS SECOND DEBATE IN A ROW

I can't stand the MSM. They can't even acknowledge that Obama got a bounce from last weeks debates. They're still touting...."Obama's got a problem with"

Christie said...

I love this site and that you are in Indiana. I am in Indianapolis and have been volunteering out of the Broad Ripple office in Indpls, which is always packed with volunteers doing canvassing, phone banks, you name it. I also have an Obama field staffer staying at my house...we are so fired up in Indiana! I have worked on several campaigns here and have never been so excited about an election. Keep up the good work, Nate and Sean!

Karl said...

Hey Sean.

Are you coming to Minnesota? I e-mailed you the other day. I'd love to show you all the amazing stuff we're doing here.

bigdayqueen said...

Wall Street Journal

OCTOBER 6, 2008 McCain Plans Federal Health Cuts
Medicare, Medicaid Spending Would Be Reduced to Offset Proposed Tax Credit

Obama needs to drive this home with seniors!

Bay Area Resident said...

I hope you are right, J, but I fear Prop 8 will pass. I am hoping prop 7 passes.

America4US said...

I can't believe the crap coming from McCain/Palin watching the Maddow show. McCain said he wasn't going to use negative campaigning back in April. LIARS! I don't think I've ever seen a bigger group of liars than the Republican party right now. Talk about being desparate! I hope all this comes back to haunt McCain. And this terrorist thing, late 1960's? Wasn't Obama just a kid then? How do the pubs think up these things?

kellysirkus said...

that high school freshmen are working on this campaign warms my heart tremendously.

Caredwen said...

"Tomorrow there are two other significant announcements, one involving Nate and one involving Brett and our trip."

Damn, way to up the suspense factor. You guys have got us all on a string. You know that, right?

J said...

Bay Area Resident, I think 7 is going to pass pretty handily.

Prop. 8 right now is running 55% against, which is a pretty good number. And there is still a month left until the election.

What will probably defeat it is that Californians have had since May to see their friends, neighbors, and coworkers getting married without the sky falling in and lightning bolts striking everybody.

I'm pretty confident it will get killed.

Proposition 4 - parental notification for abortion - is a different story. :( It's almost neck and neck right now. I would like to see those numbers turn against it, but it looks pretty evenly split.

Similar parental notification props were defeated TWICE at the polls in past years, but the fundies NEVER give up. :(

Hey, I live on Nob Hill in San Francisco. :)

Jen said...

Does any of the other Californians know if Prop 2 (livestock anti cruelty measure) is likely to pass?

benh57 said...

I think the 'nate announcement' is that he's gonna be on Colbert.

But.. wouldn't it be just hilarious if dissing Letterman cost McCain Indiana.

Justin said...

@ William
No seriously, broke as a hobo walkin down the RR tracks. My company who has never laid off in its 45 years had to lay off this year. Guess who was one of the lucky ones. Not to mention my sig other was hurt outside of the job and well you all should know how well medical benefits are in this good ole country.

GregM said...

I just came across this...Hagel's wife to back Obama Any predictions on its potential effect in Nebraska?

Sean said...

So, who's in it for the long haul?


How late is everyone waiting for the update?

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

Maybe Nate is replacing Brokaw as debate moderator. Now wouldn't that be a hoot.

J said...

Jen, it looks like Prop. 2 polling in July puts it at 63% favoring it.

Wow, they have tons of donations to defeat it from the egg and livestock industries. :(

I didn't know much about this initiative. Thanks for informing us about it!

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_2_(2008)

Justin said...

@ Sean..
I'm willing to give it till Midnight at least..after that I'll have to play it by ear

Justin said...

To Jen and J

Deafeat prop 4 & 8, support prop 2!
Hurray for California!

Jimmy said...

RED SOX WIN!

Emily said...

Hey J and Bay Area Res.... I am in SF too. The Mission represented!!!

And about Prop 8, I really don't think it will pass. And about Prop 2, I saw a poll out on that a week or so ago and it was overwhelmingly (something like 70%) in favor of passing the Prop

andrewswift said...

I've been refreshing for six'ish hours, what's another 20 minutes?

UppityTexan said...

These are great little posts. Usually just drop in for my polling fix, but am finding I rather enjoy the added perspective you guys provide behind the blinds of this election.

I will wait patiently then for tonight's polls.

Patiently. *hey, great job on countdown, Nate!

Wesley said...

I'm in bed refreshing with my lady sleeping on me. I'll be here til whenever.

Jen said...

"Jen, it looks like Prop. 2 polling in July puts it at 63% favoring it."

I am a veg so it is near and dear to my heart. Thanks for the update. I really would like for it to pass.

Justin said...

Sounds like you have it made Wesley, lol. This site drives the better half of me crazy. I'm sure the server burning up would be welcome news to them, however it would be a crushing blow to me, lol.

Thad Beier said...

Sean, we'll wait all night for the update.

And you don't have to tease us about tomorrow -- I took a poll, and 100% of us were going to check in tomorrow anyway.

Several times.

Several times an hour, that is.

andrewswift said...

All I want to know is: how can I get fivethirtyeight.com to hire me?

mc9cain said...

Any bets on what McCain will drop to? I say 11.2

Color change? NC goes light blue and Florida goes medium blue

One$Earned said...

But.. wouldn't it be just hilarious if dissing Letterman cost McCain Indiana.

It would be, but I think McCain current polling is the sum of many missteps, miscues, bad performances, poor decisions and overall lack of appeal.

As we watch the polls and consume as much coverage as we can safely digest, none of know how it's going to turn out. Who knows??

Polling gives us insight, and a way to predict the future.... sort of.

Mikkel Hong said...

MN is not going REPUBLICAN!!!!!

Justin said...

NEW POLLING THREAD NOW UP!!!

Okay j/king...now that I think about it that is kinda a mean joke to play...I sorry....forgiveness?

Wesley said...

Justin, I do. Laptops are wonderful.

Thad's right. Cliffhangers are beyond unnecessary. Why don't you just tell us faithful readers here in the comments. No one else has to know.

EmonOkari said...

The comments do add a wonderful 'cross-section' of insight. I especially enjoy the personal pieces where folks talk about the election within their home state, local districts, and volunteer offices. It really brings it home for the reader.

Justin said...

@ Wesley

lol that is a good point..just let us in the comments section know...everyone else can wait till morning.

mc9cain said...

It's also about time for InTrade to start going crazy again with McCain trading back up 3 points. Whenever Obama gets close to 70 it gets a bit haywire.

Right now it's O 68.9 and McCain 31.0
http://www.intrade.com/

Brian said...

Can anyone in North Carolina let us know how big of a deal the endorsement of Obama by Hugh McColl is in that state?

One$Earned said...

The comments do add a wonderful 'cross-section' of insight. I especially enjoy the personal pieces where folks talk about the election within their home state, local districts, and volunteer offices. It really brings it home for the reader.

Well said, and I totally agree. BTW, the Badger State will be a Blue State.

Justin said...

...if only I had Nate's cell number...perhaps than I could get him to get the new thread up in the next 5 mins...cause lord knows I'd be textin like a mad man..."Is it up now? how bout now? No? Is it ready now?"

Irradiatus said...

Hugh McColl

I'm a scientist in NC and I had never heard of Hugh McColl. So I'm not sure of the impact.

Perhaps the econ types will find it more influential?

One$Earned said...

Nate is such a celeb now, he has handlers who prescreen all cell phone calls.

We're patiently waiting. I'm wide awake and my alarm goes off in six hours and fifteen minutes to start my Tuesday.

I think I got another hour in me.

Robert Henson said...

How wonderful to see Bloomington depicted in this positive light!

Proudly born and raised in this tiny blue dot in the great red sea that is southern Indiana.

boulder-liberal said...

Just an observation from O+6 Colorado: As I'm watching my favorite Colombian telenovela, "Sin Senos, No Hay Paraiso", there has been 3 Spanish language commercials for Obama. I've never seen one for McCain.

EmonOkari said...

So, how long until Nate has Chuck Todd's job?

Justin said...

wow One$Earned...it's gonna be a long day for you tomorrow. I somehow lucked out and have a late start tomorrow...my employer must have known that it was gonna be a late polling update tonight...boy am I lucky...I need to go buy a powerball ticket, lol

Jen said...

Maybe there is not going to be a poll update tonight and we will get a "yesterday's polls" instead? There have been a few times it was done really early the next morning.

One$Earned said...

Justin, you're right, it will be a long one....I'll recover on 11/5. A powerball ticket would be a good way to spend $1, no more risk than our Stock Market and the upside is huge.

Justin said...

Jen do not say such terrible things..however I can't say I'd blame Nate...however he must realize there are many people who crave his algorithm's results like Bobby Brown on crack....

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

I wonder how many points could be attributed to the SNL skits. They have been probably the top Youtube hits since they started. And have at least 10 or so of the top 100 Google searches.

I'm just glad our guy isn't taking the full frontal attack of SNL right now.

Wesley said...

Or just pull you money out of the stock market and head to Vegas. Also better odds.

cher said...

Maybe Nate and Sean got a book deal... it would be great to read about this election period through their eyes... I signed on back in March for the first time and started coming back frequently and am now am back several times a day. Waiting for polls but falling asleep!

Justin said...

hahaha good point one$earned, powerball is looking like a better return investment than the DOW right now...btw, you mention recovering on 11/05, I told my boss that I will need that day off..he asked why and I told him because I will be up late watching the returns...his response was "I will to, however it will be called early for Obama, but I'll still give you the day off". lol :)

One$Earned said...

cher....sleep is creeping up on me as well. On top of that I turned on Fix News's Hannity & Colmes. With the late hour and H&C, I better set the timer on the TV.

Whatever the polls will report, the elation or disappointment will be felt tomorrow as well as it is felt 2nite.

Blue_in_CO said...

Hey guys - long time lurker first time poster... since I'm here anxiously awaiting the polling update like the rest of you, thought I'd post. Love the site!

realistxxx said...

I said this morning that today would turn out to be the best polling day for Obama yet... and it has!!!

I guess Palin's debate performance and the "new" agressive McCain/Palin attacks aren't quite resonating.

Also F-the Angels and the Rays... Red Sox onto the ALCS and another World Championship!!!!!!

Just flew into Boston tonight from San Francisco and got to see most of the game... a great game. Now I am out to party in bean town. The only thing better than another Red Sox World Series will be the party we have when Obama wins!!!!!!

realistxxx said...

GregM said...
I just came across this...Hagel's wife to back Obama Any predictions on its potential effect in Nebraska?

------------

If McCain/Palin keep up their vile attacks, I believe it will be time for Hagel to endorse strongly himself. Let's hope he does.

Nicholas said...

A joint Powell/Hagel endorsement via a press conference would be a nice nail-in-the-coffin for McCain.

STepper said...

If we don't get our update soon I'm going to have to call 911. I need my fix!

(Off topic: I have been a liberal Democrat all my life, here in Lala Land. Prop. 2 is a terrible idea. It is an attempt by PETA and HSUS -- which is really an anti-pet organization, not related to the American Humane Association -- to make it so expensive to eat animal products that we will all become undernourished vegetarians. Ditto the mandatory spay and neuter laws, which seek to eliminate our ability to own pets. I would suggest we keep our chatter about the propositions off this board, though. But I just wanted to provide a little balance. I am also a long time hunter. And omnivore. And pet owner.)

Sean said...

UPDATED

William said...

UPDATED!

budetti said...

I think this thing will get close and end up in a tie. Check out this site about a tie in the elctoral college.

http://www.electoralcollegetie.com/

we could end up with clinton or romney as pres. weird.

Sean said...

88.5

It's not 90, but it's not bad.

Sean said...

Wow, Obama landslide three times as likely as a McCain win.

Jen said...

Missouri went from pale pink to what appears to be pale blue. Woohoo!

Kelly said...
This post has been removed by the author.
mc9cain said...

I guessed McCain down to 11.2 I think. 11.5 will work for tonight. Go Obama! Like you said today in a speech, "we don't throw the first punch but we do throw the last one."

Sean said...

Yeah, would you take a look at all that slightly more blue.

Curtis said...

You have got to write a book about your adventures. If you do, I'd buy it on Amazon. Just make sure to keep the updates going through the election, and the ANALYSIS of the vote versus the projections after the election. Can't wait to see that.

mc9cain said...

And I got my color change requests! Florida is almost true blue and North Carolina is light blue. I like Kelly's pie rotation idea...

Wesley said...

IN and MO slight 'Bama tints now too.

Stuart said...

Look into prop 7 before u vote. It doesn't look like it was thought through. A lot of groups I respect are against it.

I pray that we get 8 shot down.

Wa7th said...

Sean posted on 10/3

"I told Tina... we’d probably go over 2.5 million site visits this week, now that we’re regularly past 400,000 per weekday."

That's just the same half-dozen of us waiting for the daily polling update.

jwgresham said...

The McColl endorsement will mainly affect Charlotte and the surrounding counties with some help up the I-85 corridor. I have heard from two Obama neighborhood Obama activists in Charlotte that they have heard from previously noncommitted voters that the endorsement had pushed them to Obama. the better bit of news today was the PPP poll that has Obama up six even though the poll continues to underrepresent likely African American voters by 4-6%.

ogre said...

numbers up! VA is blue.

Seattle said...

1. Jon--you have options:
NH is close if you need to drive.
MN is good if you have a good Canadian accent.
VA is good as others have said.
NC is the one state that has a crazy prez race, a Senate race and a gov race!

2. Nate has an announcement!??!?! OH MY!

Robert said...

Is there going to be a "today's polls" thread today?

OTF said...

SurveyUSA CA Poll released late:

Obama 55
McCain 39

mc9cain said...

Sean,
Is there someplace on your website where we can look at the map color history for different previous dates? (duh I guess history would imply previous dates...)

But anyway, that would be very cool if we could click on a previous calendar date to see the color of the map at that time.

Another Mike said...

Check out pollster.com's map too. They've added FL to Lean Obama and now have 296 EVs for Obama and another 79 Toss Ups.

Smitty said...

And I love that really, really tall blue line "Number of Simulations" in the Electoral Vote Distribution!

I heard Nate on KO tonight. I know this race will tighten. But, wow, what a beautiful map and beautiful EV number we have tonight.

Thank you for the update, Nate. I'm sure your day seems very long.

Sean, thanks to you and your wonderful photographer. Your stories are fascinating and the photos are exceptional.

liforcerenewal said...

Dear toronto, Don't come to OH! They dump chem-clouds on us all day long!!! it's not a pretty sight. North Carolina would be awesome at this time of year(or Virginia)
Although all of My work transforming the Trees in N-Eastern Oh is FABULOUS, I still wouldn't come here. The people are ignorant and prejudice, and the rest of us are flat-broke!!!
~Special council for the trees...

Another Mike said...

robert, today's polls thread usually follows updated numbers by 20-30 minutes. So, expect new thread shortly.

felix said...

Quick note of appreciation from the international section here- I'm in New Zealand, no American connections at all (if you don't count the occasional coffee at McDonalds)but fascinated by your elections and the insight I gain into them from this site -which includes of course from the comments.

OneAngryDwarf said...

Please read my letter to John McCain:

http://oneangrydwarf2008.blogspot.com/

I was so pissed off today that I actually sat down and mailed a letter to Senator McCain's office. I lost a crapload of money today in my retirement account, and all I heard about all day was Obama's a terrorist, and "kill him."

I despair the species if you know what I mean. Please everyone write a letter, send an e-mail do something to stop this Rovian politics of hate. Ugh...

Les said...

California~

I live in San Diego. Not as Republican as Orange County, but not liberal by a long shot.

Personally, I'm not sanguine about Prop (h)8 being defeated. Tons of money and manpower coming from out of state for the Yes on (h)8 folks. Polls, which were comforting a couple weeks ago, are getting too tight.

If it were just us Californians taking a look at what we wanted our constitution to look like, putting our own time, thoughts, and money into the conversation, I'd be just a little less anxious. But boat-loads of money and Yes on (h)8 volunteers from out-of-state are our flooding our neighborhoods. Some Yes canvassers knocked on our door a few days ago, and they were lucky my very polite partner answered the door, because all he said (as gobsmacked as he was) was "I strongly oppose Proposition 8." I might have taken our family photo with me, him, and our two daughters off the wall and beat them about the head and shoulders with it. They were *really* lucky our 16 year old didn't answer the door. That child has a tongue like a scalpel.

Les said...

We were going to vote Yes on 2 anyway, but when the sign for it went up for it with our neighbors across the street, I contemplated going over and dickering.

"We'll vote yes on 2 if you'll vote no on 8." And we have 3 voters to their 2. Our eldest is 19. And their dogs, as much as they love them, can't vote.

CoryWilson said...

Nate-

Thanks for giving so much coverage on Indiana. I truely believe that Indiana is going blue this cycle. I wish the national media would start mentioning Indiana with MO, NC, & VA. Maybe after this week's polls come out for the Hoosier State. I will be at the Obama rally in Indy tomorrow too and look forward to your coverage

Quico said...

Sean-

Sorry to be so late to this thread, but...

Politico ran an interesting piece about Obama's outreach in African American neighborhoods that included this tidbit:

"The [Obama] campaign has, for example, a major initiative aimed at turning barbershops and beauty parlors into voter registration offices."

( http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14347.html )

Have you seen any evidence of this? How about including some voter reg. barber shops in your rounds next time you go to a black neighborhood?

corey said...

This was a very inspiring post!! What AMAZING people these teens are!

rikyrah said...

I just want to thank you for these from the field reports. I definitely appreciate them.

longwire said...

I note that(as of 10/7 AM) Real Clear (?) Politics showed Obama dropping from 10% to 5.3% in one day - the same day 538 notes the largest gain day for Obama; unlike 538, RCP does not explain itself...

mnemosyne's afterthought said...

Is it possible to predict the effect of McCain's unrelenting negativity going forward to November 4?

Are you seeing any changes in the last few days since the McCain camp has pulled the gloves off and descended into this ugliness?

I am really worried that all these great leads will be eroded by the utter filth and negativity generated by the McCain campaign.

It all makes me sick.

JulieInSeattle said...

This post today was very moving. I don't know if maybe I am feeling more emotional than normal, but this post nearly brought me to tears. It is so inspiring to hear about how much people will sacrifice in order to secure a better future. We all have that little glimmer of hope in us. Some of us act on it and some of us don't. I really wanted to go out and register new voters, canvas my neighborhood and phone bank, but I am so busy trying to make ends meet. The financial struggles in many families across the country is real. I may not have time to work pro-actively on this campaign, but my children and family members do. I ordered a yard-long sign for the campaign and affixed it to my fence in front of my house. Someone ripped it off and tried to rip it. I cleaned it up and hung it back up. My fence is in a high traffic area and right across the street from the public Library. My 7 year old and I hand painted a 50 foot sign reminding people to register to vote. We continue to passively support Obama through our signs and through donations. I talk to friends and neighbors in an unofficial way. I have had extensive meetings with my boss who is a hard core Repub. and he has recently switched his stance on many issues: McCain’s failure to look like a leader during this economic downturn being the main turning point.

Thanks for sharing these kinds of stories.

Ted Matula said...

How about "Obama wins IN, wins election" simulation?

Indiana polls close at 6 pm ET. You could practically project him the winner of the entire election if he takes Indiana. This may be the initial state to watch on election day.

flwyd said...

No McCain office in Lafayette? Unless they've got one in West Lafayette, that means there's no office for Purdue students (40,000+ enrollment) to plug into. That doesn't sound good for Republicans at all.

KS2 Problema said...

"[Nate] McCain's winning the Terry vote!"

Hey... wait a second. Did you see Terry (the former Chief Petty Officer who McCain patted on the shoulder) as Obama responded to the same question after McCain?

As Obama talked about his proposed policy to pursue democracy BEFORE war, Terry was seen repeatedly nodding his head in seeming agreement. It certainly SEEMED to this viewer that Terry liked what he heard from Obama -- even though I thought the question *might* have been framed in such a way as to expose Obama's supposed 'weakness' on defense.

So, based on those two interactions, I was not at all sure that McCain won the "Terry vote" on that one.

It's one vote... but each vote counts.

Stephen said...

This article discusses amazement of the success of registering thousands of new voters through Obama's campaign. This is however, is not a new phenomenon. Across the country similar stories have been playing out for several months. Not only are young people showing up to vote, but those unable to vote are showing up to help out every way they can. I am an intern at my local Obama office and I am constantly amazed at the amount of energy behind the campaign, especially with young people. Nearly every day young people, either first time voters or high school students who cannot vote, come in to volunteer in any way they can.
The Obama campaign has been successful in opening its arms to young voters, and young people in general. While this seems an obvious thing to do, the Democratic Party has lost elections before because they were not able to open up to a new group of people. At the 1968 Democratic convention the party was unable to welcome a new voting bloc into the convention, African Americans. Instead of seating the Freedom Party at the convention in voting positions, Humphrey and other leaders offered them an offhanded compromise, disenfranchising the African American vote for years to come. With young people by his side Obama has brought a new wave of excited to not only politics, but in particularly, the Democratic party.

egapre said...

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平平 said...

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