(7:44 PM Note re: Today's Polls. Bear with me a bit. I've got some baseball to watch, then a hit to do for Countdown, and then we'll do some late-night number crunching.)
7:31 PM. Let's play ball!
7:29 PM. That was very good, although I actually think they could have done without the live bit at the end.
7:28 PM. Live Barack is hard to distinguish from TV Barack!
7:24 PM. Zzzzzzz..... we want live Barack! Live Ba-Rack! Live Ba-Rack! Live Ba-Rack!
7:21 PM. This really is basically the Democratic convention compressed into 30 minutes. I think people forget that Denver was really quite a strong convention, even if it got overshadowed in the media narrative a bit by St. Paul.
7:19 PM. I do think it's worth considering whether there's inherently anything about a 30-second spot that makes it the norm in political advertising. Obviously, you're not going to be able to buy a 30-hour block every day. But folks like Al Franken, for instance, have taken really good advantage of 60-second slots this year, and I'd think that the presidential candidates could too.
7:16 PM. Discuss: all else being equal, the most optimistic candidate wins the election. And that's definitely the mood that Obama is going for with this thing.
7:14 PM. Anyone catch that? RFK High School? Surely not a coincidence, methinks.
7:12 PM. Is Google now the most trusted brand in America?
7:09 PM. Minor quibble: some of these vignettes could stand to carry out their emotional highs a little longer, as the policy talk seems like a little bit of a let-down in comparison.
7:07 PM. The B & O Railroad? Right next to Marvin Gardens?
7:06 PM. Well, the production values are strong, unlike Hillary's Hallmark Channel thing. It's unquestionably an infomercial, but that doesn't mean it needs to look like one.
7:01 PM. OK, Obama's definitely a fan of that whole let-me-sit-in-front-of- a-set-that-looks-exactly like-the-White House-even-though-it-isn't thing.
7:00 PM. Is this actually newsworthy?
10.29.2008
Obamarama Liveblog
@ 8:02 PM
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505 comments
I do think it's worth considering whether there's inherently anything about a 30-second spot that makes it the norm in political advertising.
In the US, it's presumably because it's the standard commercial block. In the UK, 5-10m party election broadcasts -- from the public allocation of TV time, with no paid advertising -- are the norm, with 10m as the closer. 'Kinnock: The Movie' in 1987 was the first one to really offer up something with high production values.
Obama: The Movie felt like a long-form version of one of those.
Jesus christ nate-
Nice glases, bnetter look. Give mepolls.
Kill Colin Powell, his wife is paranoid abouit.
Nate,
Okay, game is over. Saw you on Countdown. Now where is today's polls update?
WV: press. (That's cool!)
"7:12 PM. Is Google now the most trusted brand in America?"
Only because American's are not very tech savvy.
Google is one of the biggest spyware companies and a huge threat to IP and privacy.
@Troy
""
re: cult. I think a lot of us are gushing over this ad, and his campaign, because he is doing it so well. You see, we're Democrats. ...
""
I'm not a Democrat. This was a good ad. Strong. Positive.
I'm a conservative.
Obama is the best vote for me. This ad only shows the good he is capable of doing. His campaign only shows how good of an organizer he is.
My prayers are with Obama for the next four years. I hope he can transform this country into its promise.
The glasses look good, but its odd that this is the first we've seen of them. Are they for vision or for show?
i want to see McCain at 2.9% win percentage odds. Shit, that's better than the Rays right now...
Sorry RAys - you guys can get it next year! Congratulations Philadelphia Phillies!!
Okay, folks, I'll say it, but our enthusiasm and "cult"like belief in Obama is actually real patriotism--the belief that America really is built on great ideas and can be a truly great and special country. He's just the one giving voice to it without calling it out, wearing flag pins (and pointing out that by wearing one he MUST be patriotic) and deriding those who don't support him as unpatriotic (thus, real patriotism)
Is the live segment up on You Tube anywhere?
O and C have to start the rally in FL by offering it as a consolation prize to FL and congratulating Philly. Two hits on two swings (states)
Gimme my poll-fix.
Oh, and my word verification is "squit," karma for Sarah-Quit.
ole forsbert,
thanks for your comments. Can you share when you decided to support Obama and what was the deciding factor?
pollllssss where are youuuuu?
BTW: Word verification: Macked
Did Nate lend this guy his glasses?
To the folks talking about Nate getting a high paying job... Well I don't know how much he makes with his baseball gig. But he says he gets over a million page views on this site a day. I happen to be a webmaster myself and let me tell you... He must be making a god damn fortune off of this website. I think it's funny that people don't realize how much MONEY you can make from a website like this. :) Oh yes and he deserves it - this site is incredible.
So looking at the long term electoral college fight for the future... I like the dems chances. If VA and the mountain west states, AZ CO NM and NV all trend democratic and stay democratic and the Kerry states stay blue then the dems have a 20 point cushion and even with the 2010 realignment of CD districts still should favor dems. I'm so excited
So it makes it to this page:
|The_fragile_99| said...
Go rate Obama's gig:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/29/how-would-you-grade-obamas-infomercial/
So Nate is not doing this because he loves us?
Just got the BHO email:
"It's in your hands [my first name]"
Will you send $$$?
Best campaign ever
Were there no insta polls on the infomercial---CNN should have done a focus group with squigly lines.
Nate glases are too smart to bother wih updates...
I think it's funny that people don't realize how much MONEY you can make from a website like this.
This site is still just a seasonal gig. On the 5th it dies.
ploste!
yay for late night number crunching!
Can we get a post on the world series?
GO PHILLIES!
He loves Harry Potter, that so shows who this man is
My husband said that Nate looked like a young Mr. Burns when he was on Countdown.
If Nate is reading this (which I doubt since it is way down in the comments), Mr. Burns could have been hot when he was younger.
If Nate is a young Mr Burns, does that make Mule Rider Smithers?
Elempl? I googled it and I think it is a Polish word.
If Joe the plumber can afford a publisist and only makes 40K he obviously is doing fine now so when he is (not really) making 250K then he shouldn't mind high taxes (even though Obama's plan would still benefit him)
Nate,
Good job tonight on Countdown.
Obama is a guest with Jon Stewart on the Daily Show in 15 minutes.
nam - I'm not saying that. :) I'm just saying that I think it's funny that so many people don't realize how much money you can make online. Everyone always wants you to get a "job." Why get a job I say. Why have a boss? I like working for myself. Let me tell you if one of my websites was getting a million visitors a day I wouldn't even consider a job. I'd have plenty of money.
I think it's precisely because he's doing this for all the right reasons that the site is so good though. That's the point. If it was only a money making venture it'd probably suck like most websites do.
But... this is off topic a bit. Hits a bit home as work online for myself and do pretty well (not Nate Silver well, but pretty well.)
I've been thinking---isn't time to start thinking about the 538 Awards. We need categories--best poster, most argumentative, best verifaction word definition, best linker (think Real Joe has that sewn up), best troll. We also need a nickname for the award (see Oscar, Emmy).
Paul - true. The viewership will die off after the election. But election cycles are so long that... well I if Nate keeps this site around - I'm sure it'll be even bigger in 2012 (and 2010 too although off year isn't as big of a deal.)
2010 is a huge deal with the govs. races because of redistricting!
I love Gene Robinson:
"Why McCain-Palin will lose"
Oh, and best word-verification yet (scary even): "fartalot"
Nate, have you been talking to my wife?
@mc9cain
""
ole forsbert,
thanks for your comments. Can you share when you decided to support Obama and what was the deciding factor?
""
Short answer: I'm a traditional conservative who believes in small government. NO Republican has offered that since Nixon. Actually... no Republican has offered that since Hoover. Lately, the Republican party represent (in reality) large government with a failure to understand addition and subtraction (budget deficits) and a hatred of science. None of there three is acceptable to me. All take away from the people their ability to rise as far as they can on their own strengths. Obama represents this small-government mindset much more than McCain and the Republican party. Obama is an honorable man. McCain is not. Obama ran an excellent campaign (executive experience) McCain did not (executive experience). In short, there is absolutely no reason for me to vote for McCain---none. He is the antithesis of what we, as a nation, represent (should represent) to the world. We are built on liberalism (anyone who disputes this either must not understand the meaning of the word liberalism or has absolutely no historical understanding of the United States of America in 1783). Was this 225 years ago (and Obama was a white property owner), our founding fathers would have no problems electing his as the president of the United States.
Long answer: I am not voting for Obama. I am voting for Bob Barr (Libertarian). I live in Maryland (=blue), so I am comfortable voting third-party to help stimulate a replacement party for the Republicans.
Odd... my "short answer" was longer than my "long answer". =)
Sorry Ole. I could have said that differently.
You're right. He's made promises, and has shown us what he is capable of doing. But at this time, it is all in the future.
My prayers are with Obama for the next four years. I hope he can transform this country into its promise. That's my prayer, too.
Perhaps a Polly? Pronounced like it was preceded by Roly?
Sterpo? My word verification is leaving me sterpo-plexed.
...and the Mulie goes to...!!
nova commie,
Got the same email about it being in my hands (of course). Yeah, pretty hard not to send more money, huh???
Best campaign ever, indeed!!!
Obama on Daily Show tonight!!!!
Reminder, reminder
Dear friends, I'm Brazilian, from Rio de Janeiro, 62 years old, journalist for 40 years. I can't vote for Barack Obama, obviously, but I'm here to thank you all, Nate, Sean, Brett, and all people commenting. Two weeks now, I'm going to bed when you go to bed. Bad sleeping, bad eating, enormous anxiety. We Brazilians are here waiting too, and really optimistic. Big hugs! marihei
Oh, and best word-verification yet (scary even): "fartalot"
___________________________________
The only way that would be better if it was sirfartalot.
"Only because American's are not very tech savvy"
You're welcome for all these fancy boxes and wires that sprouted out of our arses. ;)
Google is a trusted brand, and it's not a spyware company. Look up spyware. There is some dispute as to how much consumer information they should use in their algorithms, but they have never been accused of anything unethical.
@ole fosberg
Did you know that Nixon imposed wage and price controls? If I were you I wouldn't make him your "small government" hero.
(Obviously you ain't very old. I lived through the wage controls and continued to raise my hourly rates as a lawyer because I gained more experience.)
[cleche]
The Mulie---I like it.
Was marihei your word verification or were you wishing us well?
This "cult" reference really bothers me.
Can't people be excited for THEIR guy? Why does it have to be referred to as a cult? I'll give anyone who uses that word the benefit of the doubt that they don't really mean it in that sense, maybe they are just nauseated by all the loud and proud hoorahs.
Obama is my JFK.
I now know how my parents felt...
...and it feels great.
mari,
Thanks for stopping by!!! I hope, this time, the United States of America can really be united and won't let ourselves or the rest of the world down!
Obama on Daily Show tonight!!!!
I can't decide if I want to watch that or the rally with Bill Clinton in Florida...I am leaning towards the Florida rally.
ole forsbert,
Wow - so beautifully said. I completely understand your thoughts and quite frankly, there are a lot of Democrats who hold your same views. I fully support your idea of an alternative to the Republican Party.
There are many parts to the "Clinton Democratic" aspect of the Party that are troublesome but I do think they have lost their power in the short term and perhaps long term as well. Thanks for your longer versus shorter reply.
CO is the newest state for early voting 2008 to surpass 2004.
1,123,173voted thus far which is 52% of total vote in 2004. Party updates of turnout are done weekly. As of 10/23 Dems were 39% to Repub 38%.
@STepper
""
@ole fosberg
Did you know that Nixon imposed wage and price controls? If I were you I wouldn't make him your "small government" hero.
(Obviously you ain't very old. I lived through the wage controls and continued to raise my hourly rates as a lawyer because I gained more experience.)
""
Yes, I did know that. In fact, some of the price controls he put in place still exist. That is why I had to hearken back even further to Hoover to find a small government president.
And, yes, I do understand that Hoover's name is anathema around here (note that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was not his, but the Republican Congress's), but that's as far back as we have to go to get a tiny-government Republican.
On the other hand, while Clinton was hardly tiny-government, he was definitely much more small-government than any Republican we've had in my lifetime.
It makes me laugh (weep bitter tears) when a student tells me that Democrats are for large government and Republicans are for small governments.
October 29, 2008 9:55 PM
"I've been thinking---isn't time to start thinking about the 538 Awards. "
My vote for best name: Assmole
Things to look forward to:
1) Possible GA Senate runoff in November if neither candidate gets 50% (unique to GA)
2) Gov races in NJ, VA next November
3) Mayoral race in NYC
4) One or more possible Senate vacancy races
isnt obama going to do the FL show soon?
word iminatin
"iminatin there's no countries it isnt hard... " you get the drift. i think Lennon would approve of Obama
Daily Show is awesome so far
As a long-suffering Philadelphia sports fan, let me express my sense of relief.
Twenty-five years of wandering in the desert (at least a somewhat shorter period than my forebears wandered), with some really awful teams during that time, and a few really good teams to tease me.
Congratulations, Philadelphia Phillies, 2008 World Series champions.
I will be doing my part (making calls, knocking on doors, poll-watching) to help Obama. An Obama victory (on top of the Phillies) would make this a week I will remember for the rest of my life.
Ted Stevens rally live from Alaska on CSpan right now
otf said: CO is the newest state for early voting 2008 to surpass 2004.
Yeah, the early voting numbers are really interesting. I have been trying to follow these over the last few days. If you combine the numbers from McDonald's site with the numbers from the CNN map, there have already been at least 17,677,973 ballots cast, which is more than 1 out of 20 people in the US.
Let's see: Economy in the dumper with international FUBARs in the Middle East, and U.S. respectability at a major low? Check.
Phillies take the World Series? Check.
Transformational figure who tells the country it is better than the garbage it's gone through with its past leaders, and promises a return to glory with the values that made America the respected leader it once was...and can be again? Said person is knocked as vapid and radical by the opposition, which has been in power and is not respected by most voters. CHECK.
Feels like 1980 to me- McCain is definitely Carter (right down to the feckless Navy guyt hing), and Obama is Reagan. Finish the job, folks.
That was quite good - it did indeed feel short, which has to be a positive sign.
Curious aside: Here in Norway there's a law against political ads on TV - the idea is that it's such a powerful medium that it would skew the balance of power too much towards the financially stronger parties. And yes, it's a fairly old law.
I wondered right after the convention bumps why one party did not postpone their convention to be real close to the election so they get the bump right before the election.
Barack's done it with 30 paid minutes on 7 station. Especially, he kept the commentary and the pundits out of it because he paid for the time.
Fred. Honey. Think twice. Do you *really* want to post drunk?
As far as our house is concerned there has been no baseball since the ignominious fizzle of the Cubs a few weeks ago.
WV: popstster, as in Barack is a rock star but Palin is just a popstster
@sfergus
Doesn't Louisiana also have a runoff system for Senate?
(Stevens is having his first campaign moment in Alaska. The corrupt felon.)
[reersur]
Jon Stewart is so awesome it's almost unbearable at times.
Louisiana recently changed its law dropping federal offices from runoff rules.
Mulie is a good idea for an award(this coming from an obsessive lurker).
I have to say that while I can't vote for Obama(canuck), I do admire him. What I like most about him, besides the liberal ideas, its the pragmatism. The way he approaches every topic, and how he explains it. It may be professorial, but I guess as an engineering geek, I find it enlightening. I like the fact he surrounds himself with knowledgeable people.
What I like(or love) most about his campaign, was the way he has orchestrated it, and if he uses that collective brainpower to run the country the way they ran the campaign, well I think it wuld be very cool(yeah its a different beast, but who knows?). Especially reading how he has carried out the GOTV, is nothing short of remarkable to me. For me that is something. Beyond the high minded ideas, liberal philosophy, and the hope meme(which is inspiring), its the pragmatic, problem solving implementation of his campaign. Its results! hopefully Nov 4th will demonstrate how effective him and his team has been.
While the infomercial may have cost $4 million, it probably got $1-2 million in free advertising. My local news in Northen VA spent over 4 minutes covering it. Brilliant!
Stevens ended his rally with "God bless you and God bless Alaska."
No mention of his country. He complained about having a DC jury.
"WV: popstster, as in Barack is a rock star but Palin is just a popstster"
Keeping with that comparison- Barack= U2, Palin = Britney Spears. Obama maybe gets a little too into th feelings for some people who have grown cynical, but he can reach a connection with an audience through his authenticity and understanding of the shared human experience that separates him from almost everyone else.
As for Britney..ERRR...Palin, you knew the talentless trailer-trash side of her would be dominating the headlines in due time, over her performing songs that are written for her by the real string-pullers. It's just a matter of how many people see through it before it's at the point of patheticness (ah, who am I kidding, Palin's already there).
alyssa,
I owe Jon Stewart for the remnants of my sanity that may have survived the past few years. Without him calling bullshit on obvious bullshit ignored by others, I'd be locked up somewhere, I'm sure!!
This is a particularly good show tonight
The Kissimmee rally in on now live HERE.
Clinton on now.
New post...plus Clinton is speaking with Obama in FL.
I'm ready for this new president Bill
@k
Obama picks good people. Give Plouffe credit for the campaign. In past years campaign managers became Postmaster general. Then they become Secretaries of State. I don't know what it's going to be this time.
[unionali]
Bit of a WC Fields nose on Bill tonight---little vodka before the show.
news,
The wit is endless. I love smart people.
Side note:
Bill's about to kill it in FL. Love him or hate him he still slays the rally speech.
I have gotten black men off death row, I am not racist...is it OK for me to wish death on Colin Powell for not understading the job as Sec of State and hoping he ides? Fucker?
Don't wish him death---IMO he should have resigned. He knew what was going on---it would have been the honorable thing to do.
He just stated his resignation would nat matter...now hedoes not go for the best candidate to fix his mistake......iamdone....powell is an uncle tom.. a lsave...a prick.
VOTE OBAMA
Powell did his thing, endorsement for Obama. It may not have swayed a lot of voters, but it helped solidify support, put the GOP on defense, and give Obama some cred. It doesn't make up for what he was complicit in it, but man, just leave him alone. There are enough problems out there to be dealt with, without starting a crusade against this guy. Just leave him be. And asking for death threats against him, doesn't make you that different from those who would want Obama's death.
The West Coast feed had the same Florida speech clip that the East Coast got (so the "live" tag wasn't quite accurate).
Fuck Powell...hedid not mean as he has not supported it.
Fuck him...hope to see him on a private plane very soon.
Fucker. Liar. Powell/
Why am I surprised? But Turdblossom is flat out lying on the "Factor".
He is claiming that weekend polling in this cycle (& all past recent cycles, I assume, ... ) SUPPORT THE DEMS! His evidence is: High School Football (Friday Night Lights, a FANTASTIC, not conservative, book, by the way- ignore the film & TeeVee versions, however.) & Church, of course, ... yawn, ...
Y'know, after seeing the RAS poll today I had a bad case of the "oh noes" BUT, one of my ultimate TESTS for this election is: Whatever Turdblossom says that Obama is doing wrong, OBAMA IS MOST CERTAINLY DOING RIGHT.
No Drudge Ras headline posted yet. Billo keeps pushing tomorrow's Economy Internals.
Folks, the oh noe is GONE. It is OVER, this election.
(BTW, the only reason the GOP is "prodding" the LAT is b/c THE GOP KNOW there is nothing there. Ergo, none of that shit about McCain's SUPPORT for Khalidi [sp?] in the 90s will never be brought up. It is an attack on the "Elite" Media, plain & simple.)
Ardent: I disagree on one point. FNL TV is awesome.
Obama is U2? hmm
maybe if he wins he can redeem the little Irish turncoat?
@stepper, yeah Plouffe, I remember seeing some his videos on youtube. I am sure he deserves the large share of credit for the campaign. That is demonstration of who(whom?) Obama "pals around with", and shows good judgment.
I remember reading somewhere, that people involved in the campaign, getting involved in government, may not be a good idea, in terms of perception etc. Especially after Karl Rove's involvement in government. He may become a target for all sorts of attacks from the right. What was suggested that he maintain an adviser role, and can be called upon when needed. Although I can imagine that if Plouffe can get involved in the government, he could run it quite well.
I just watched the YouTube version, and I thought it was a very effective ad. The overwhelming message was populist -- Obama understands the problems we're facing, truly cares about us, and wants to solve them, so that America can again be a country of opportunity for everyone. The most effective part of the ad was his emphasis on the dignity of work -- if you've put in your years, you ought to be able to enjoy your retirement, without having your pension squandered, or your life savings eaten up by health care costs.
I felt this really humanized Obama, showed him as a man of the people, and at the same time as someone who is calm, intelligent, and capable. He is very much the leader we need right now.
"I've been thinking---isn't time to start thinking about the 538 Awards. "
The "Squealer"/"Baghdad Bob" award winner? PeteKent!
PeteKoont
absolutely mostly due to the fact he was actually for Hillary and not a Repug.
was i the only who noticed that Obama was "live" on both Daily Show w/Jon Stewart *AND* on CNN & NBC at the rally with Clinton ... simultaneously ?
Is Jon lying to me or has Obama cloned himself ? Now I really want the Congressional Health Care Plan!
Chris M. said...
As much as I have supported Obama, and will continue to do so, this didn't work one bit for me. Too much melancholy. I, for one, don't want to have it rubbed in how bad things are. It just turned me off.
Really? You don't want to be rubbed in how bad things are? Tell that to someone who is losing their homes and everything they have worked so hard for. They are living the nightmare that turned you off.
Michael Blaine said...
Obama says we'll always know where he stands; that is not true at all!
Go to barckobamadotcom.
After watching tonight's 30 minute TV special with Barack Obama I was thinking this guy knows some Aikido: Many analysts had expected he'd use this time to hit back at his opponent's assertions but no - he just got out of the way, let the blows miss him, and turned in the direction he wanted to take. No one got hurt but his move out of the impact zone served to demonstrate his optimism that with new ideas and better priorities we can leave failed policies behind and rebuild a new America.
I missed that "Albuquerque, New Mexico" pop up on the screen, but something seemed familiar when I saw the hills, the sky, and the downtown skyline. The letterman jacket's colors and the X sticker on the car gave it away (those are Saint Pius X High School colors).
Yay for NM getting a mention! Yay even more for it being 10 points Obama!
"Obama's Republican opponent, Arizona Sen. John McCain, was not mentioned, nor was the GOP."
I wonder if McShame could talk for 30 seconds without mentioning Obama?
@fred: You really ought to consider toning that down a bit. Unless you like the idea of surprise FBI visits or something.
@Michael Blaine:
"I don't want my fate to be bound to that of Joe Average or Joe Undecided.
I've worked too hard in life to get AWAY from these people!"
Yes, well you see... the fact that you presumably haven't succeeded at this means that your fate *is* necessarily bound to theirs, because you're in the same (or a similar) tax bracket. That's not the doing of any politician.
It's in your own self interest to vote for a President who will *improve* the fate to which you are necessarily bound.
"And now our national politics is going to celebrate mediocrity?"
Your (I'm Canadian) national politics are going to celebrate the *majority*, as is normal for democracy. That most people have mediocre salaries is a consequence of economics.
wv: astedor. Can't decide what that should mean.
The infomercial was allegedly produced by Murphy Putnam Media, of Alexandria, Va.
Great comment here Nate,
"7:09 PM... some of these vignettes could stand to carry out their emotional highs a little longer..."
I'm still impressed with the production quality of the video. The music, the cuts, the shots, even the quality of the video. Every 4 years there will be one of these from now until forever.
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