(7:44 PM Note re: Today's Polls. Bear with me a bit. I've got some baseball to watch, then a hit to do for Countdown, and then we'll do some late-night number crunching.)
7:31 PM. Let's play ball!
7:29 PM. That was very good, although I actually think they could have done without the live bit at the end.
7:28 PM. Live Barack is hard to distinguish from TV Barack!
7:24 PM. Zzzzzzz..... we want live Barack! Live Ba-Rack! Live Ba-Rack! Live Ba-Rack!
7:21 PM. This really is basically the Democratic convention compressed into 30 minutes. I think people forget that Denver was really quite a strong convention, even if it got overshadowed in the media narrative a bit by St. Paul.
7:19 PM. I do think it's worth considering whether there's inherently anything about a 30-second spot that makes it the norm in political advertising. Obviously, you're not going to be able to buy a 30-hour block every day. But folks like Al Franken, for instance, have taken really good advantage of 60-second slots this year, and I'd think that the presidential candidates could too.
7:16 PM. Discuss: all else being equal, the most optimistic candidate wins the election. And that's definitely the mood that Obama is going for with this thing.
7:14 PM. Anyone catch that? RFK High School? Surely not a coincidence, methinks.
7:12 PM. Is Google now the most trusted brand in America?
7:09 PM. Minor quibble: some of these vignettes could stand to carry out their emotional highs a little longer, as the policy talk seems like a little bit of a let-down in comparison.
7:07 PM. The B & O Railroad? Right next to Marvin Gardens?
7:06 PM. Well, the production values are strong, unlike Hillary's Hallmark Channel thing. It's unquestionably an infomercial, but that doesn't mean it needs to look like one.
7:01 PM. OK, Obama's definitely a fan of that whole let-me-sit-in-front-of- a-set-that-looks-exactly like-the-White House-even-though-it-isn't thing.
7:00 PM. Is this actually newsworthy?
10.29.2008
Obamarama Liveblog
by Nate Silver @ 8:02 PM...see also advertising, liveblog, obama
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505 comments
No?
What the hell?
dang, octavian beat me.
I am Barack Obama and I approve this message.
not yet
hey nate! where's the polls?
This is great! And no Travolta, Nolte, or other B actor dragged out for this feel-good movie of the year. I give it 4 stars.
~FL PUMA.
Probably not, but I'm in a class until 9 and am interested in what the reaction is as it happens.
Blogger andrew said...
What the hell?
Indeed.
Word verification: snuous
ewwwww.
I can't watch from here in Santiago, Chile, so please keep me informed as to what is being said....thanks.
I approve this live blog.
thanks for blogging - no tv - getting it here...
(reduc)
nice beginning piece. looking good so far.
Links???
There ARE still conflicted voters...do I understand..not really, but...we need to bring it home.
Thanks for the thread Nate
I thought the set looked very presidential as well. I am loving it so far though. I wonder if he is going to use this as an opportunity to blast McCain/Palin as well.
It's novel. It's expensive. It's news. Or at least fark, which is reported as news anyway.
(It doesn't even matter if it is a Presidential candidate doing it!)
The Obama infomercial is a
professionally produced 1/2 hour.
I would expect it to be good. Let's
listen to the words he says.
Go 'O'
I actually don't think this is that bad. Kinda reminds me of the fireside chats with FDR
Ken Burns, anyone?
definitely well produced
Today's Polls please?
:D
yeah Nicolle he looks great. I can see him as president
i know i should come to expect this but the production values are super awesome great. it looks high def (at least on my SD tv) and the acoustic music in the background, looking super presidential....? i approve. should hopefully work to GOTV with moderate dems and indys and pragmatic voters
So far this is brilliant. The production values are great. Seven minutes in and it doesn't even feel like it.
It should be available online eventually.
a beautiful travelogue with touching stories.
Word verification: myxorin.
Sounds like a prescription drug! Came up right on cue.
It's not in HD. :-(
love the total focus on economy. Retired folks. HARD WORKING not "lazy" folks.
This is awesome. Obama's a fricking genius. McCain is so out of his class it's unbelievable.
These real life people kind of make Joe the Plumber look silly, don't they?
have pity on those of us w/out TV --- is it online anywhere yet?
conso
2-3 point bounce. my prediction.
Is this infomercial being streamed online anywhere?
wingent
It's LIVE on Sky News (UK)
Joe the who? This is the United States..and 70 years olds don't need to work, they have earned it.
Im a fan so far, especially the monopoly shoutout.
Excellent format. 5 minute or so segments, I guess we'll get 5 or 6 of these.
at work..this isn't on the web anywhere, is it? :(
energy > iraq....perfect.
BHO looks and sounds presidential and likeable. I think this is going to help shore up soft support.
Some concrete policy proposals might win over some undecideds. Even low-info voters are probably tiring of sound bites and would be grateful for substance.
F5 F5 F5!!
his set looks like a log cabin white house :p
Thanks Porridgegun
nuousnes
On to the war now.
Word verification: chaff.
And it's off... two bints are yapping over it.
yes...it is....
Tax credit for fuel efficient cars? How about tax credit for fuel efficient [i]american[/i] cars? Save american jobs and the environment.
Again, Obama shows his brilliance in addressing what needs to be addressed. Every touchpoint is dead ON.
We deserve a smart administration! Yes we do!
(...tonight's word: hordown.)
Um, I'm at a TV and I have no idea what you're talking about. Fox is showing King of the Hill. Where is this happening? Is DirecTV cut out of the deal?
This is great. Too bad the word is "toxery"
@mysticlaker...
my thoughts exactly
I wonder if Colin Powell pops up
Loving the focus on people, not him. That was my big fear - that it would be 30 minutes all Barack, all the time. These are like the TV version of "Profiles in Courage" - for those of you not aware, a puff piece book "written" by JFK
Hey where's the gop guy? You know, McCain! Out there looking for socialists, no doubt.
BTW/ I noticed the ad on this site requesting support for "No on Prop 8." I donated $50. I encourage all of you to step up for social justice.
gallon of milk...
Testimonial from Gov of Virginia -- small business, entrepren's are 'rocket fuel' of economy -- let's give them a break, not conglomerates, big companies... He mentions Warren Buffet's support...
And the states the stories are from are...significant, to say the least. :)
Very Ken Burns like. They need to zoom in on some old photos though to nail it completely.
Word Verification Convi- US soccer player that got relegated with Redding from the Premiership last year. Can't seem to make US National team despite being better than most of the players on the current squad
So far: He is alternating between speaking directly to the TV audience about his policies, voice-over presentations of interviews with middle class families who are worried about making ends meet, as they go about their days; footage of him on the campaign trail speaking to groups; footage from debates. Very effective to use the stories to give life to the policy talk.
Another vignette. They've done an awesome job choosing subjects for these vignettes.
estri
Do you guys think he will say McCain's name once tonight?
So far:
1. A real downer -- where's the sunny optimism? Maybe he'll close on that note, but the show is such a bummer that I'm having trouble keeping it on.
2. He keeps saying "as president, I will . . ." The Republicans will make a lot of hay out of that "arrogant" and "presumptuous" attitude.
Word verification: "thinc" Need I say more?
Impressive!
Where do I go to vote for this guy!
"Tax credit for fuel efficient cars? How about tax credit for fuel efficient [i]american[/i] cars? Save american jobs and the environment."
HAHA, you guys are desperate.
Anyway, yes there's also a plan for encouraging the development of fuel efficient American cars.
Of course, GOPers are in no place to talk about OUTSOURCING.
Be interesting to hear what the pundits will say afterwards...do those of you watching think it is effective?
My word is and i end....
with a GO OBAMA!
I've actually talked to the Walmart guy towards the beginning of the ad. He works with my mom. Kind of neat.
The fabric of our country...white, black, hispanic...this is how it was always meant to be...this should be an exercise of unification not division....united we stand...
"No govt program can turn off the TV set or read to your kid." Now talking about absence of father. How devoted his mom was...as a former 'single mom' -- this is good stuff...
this was almost certianly done before the "joe the plumber" flap, but this could be interpreted as obama's stunning rebutter of "joe the plumber" with his own stories of "so and so the house wife with 3 kids whose husband is injured but can't go on disability"
i think it's really touching, totally on message, and just what he needs now in the campaign. pitch perfect as always.
it'll be interesting to see how they tie in with the live event in FL...
convention speech. We're in education phase now.
Nice use of strings.
word: dorders
Need an Iraq vet in here somewhere to really crush the message. May not do it to avoid looking opportunistic.
Nate, you suck for making us wait for the polls.
"malint" = new word for McCain staffers throwing Palin under the bus.
Did he mention Hillary?
Online anywhere? Now or later???
sidreal...try msnbc
it won't be on the west coast until 8 Pacific but they have it on now
How can anyone want to vote for McSame after this!
You could make the case that G.H.W. Bush was the more optimistic candidate in 1992. Always decried Clinton "telling people the United States is second-rate".
Why did he say tax cuts for anyone making under $200k? Has'nt it been $250K??
Has he mentioned McCain yet by name? I don't think so.
no hillary mention
gautri
The Mom part was very touching.
Obama's up three runs in teh bottom of the ninth. He's got Mariano Rivera on the mound pitching to Mario Mendoza, Nook Logan, and Ron Karkovice. Mismatch, blowout, game over.
The whole point of this infomercial is obvious. McCain is flooding talk shows and websites with negative stories about Obama. He is coming off as angry. People are sick of this election because it has been so negative for so long. Obama pops up on your TV set for 30 minutes and does not say a negative phrase--someone is looking calm, stable, and confident. Who do you want with the mighty presidential pen? The angry guy or the calm guy? Simple.
Youtube link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA
200-250 receive no change in taxes.
SIDEREAL--
Are you on the west coast?? I'm in California, and can only watch it "LIVE" on MSNBC; otherwise it's scheduled for 8pm showing (all time zones, no adjustments) on the various other networks...
mimi,
no increase for anyone making over 250K
mimi: $250k is the cutoff for a tax raise. Between high $100s and $250, you'll maintain the status quo.
Harry Potter? He's a Satanist!
This is too depressing. I don't think we're whiners, dwelling on melancholy. Where are the uplifting stories, besides Obama's life story?
Why did he say tax cuts for anyone making under $200k? Hasn't it been $250K??
I think if you're under 200K, you'll get a tax cut, if you're from 201-250K, your taxes won't go up.
Now talking about time in Washington: Obama as bipartisan. Music more upbeat.
word: etersa
"Literally"!
Why did he say tax cuts for anyone making under $200k? Has'nt it been $250K??
200K and down get cuts, 250K and up will have a raise. 200-250 stays the same, I think.
New word: gallurp. Gallup burp? An ill omen? *gasp*
lol i love how biden had 2 lines, and he literally said literally once.
This is all positive, all brand-building for Obama. It's an attempt to make McCain's smears look even more ridiculous. In my completely biased opinion, I think it's doing a good job.
Drowzee said...
Youtube link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA
Thanks~
Folks..it's not about Hillary; not about McCain..IT'S ABOUT US!!
Following your thought Nate: might ad fatigue be less pronounced if they took up fewer, but longer slots, than having an ad every single commercial break?
I'm totally depressed because McCain's intrade.com value has risen drastically. WHY? oh WHY???
This isn't whining. Not one person whining. Just pointing out its rough. Big difference.
People are hurting. I think he's starting with people being down and he'll finish with a message of hope.
I am struggling we all are struggling compared to 10 years ago, he showing us America and wants to change to the best of our ideals.
I was nervous about this broadcast, afraid it would be seen as presumptuous and backfire. I am loving it so far. It is really down to earth and makes me feel so much one-ness with all of America
I'd like to believe that the most optimistic candidate wins, but then why are negative ads so damn effective?
Read Barbara Ehrenreich's book Fear of Falling: a large sector is on the verge of falling out of the "middle class" (American dream, being a homeowner, being able to take care of kids and family members).
on to foreign policy stump speech now.
Individual: under $200k
Family: under $250k
wordver: prostatic (NO JOKE!)
it's a wonderful program!
copho?
here's the veteran that someone asked about.
I believe the specific dollar amount mentioned was for the people earning 200K. There is a different amount between 200k and 250K
Obviously, you're not going to be able to buy a 30-hour block every day.
I would venture that you wouldn't be able to buy a 30-hour block on any day.
(word: "Glentski" -- the Soviet agent behind Barack Obama's campaign!)
Kevin, b/c there is always someone waiting in the wings for th ebug payout...just in case.
I was just thinking that this was a mini-convention. You beat me to it.
folks.. he is not going to 'mention' Hillary or John McCain.
Hillary might get a soundbite herself speaking, but this is not an attack ad, or a conciliatory ad.. it is Obama looking presidential.
Ah, and Bill Richardson brings it home...Nice...
wow!
Damn, closing STRONG!!!
"But folks like Al Franken, for instance, have taken really good advantage of 60-second slots this year, and I'd think that the presidential candidates could too."
from working inside the Obama campaigns media wing (I do audio post production), we HAVE done plenty of 60sec commercials and some 2min commercials. They really resonate with people, they poll well, and they have done many, especially in battleground states. They are more targeted though, as they cost much more.
no Colin?
Now, live from Florida.
gotta say, i like the democratic cameos from other party leaders. it's a nice way to vouch for him and showcase other people in the fight for change. i've heard some people say they just don't think obama can enact change so it's nice to see his in-power supporters.
live in florida!
I am struck by how much Barack has been aged by the campaign. I just look at the gray around his temples. Sad that this is what it takes to be President now.
We're in the finale now. Music building. Cut live to Florida.
Word: miliona (the number of people at the rally)
I bet that there was some research done showing that Obama's messages were more effective coming from a "White House" type setting. Particularly since most of the undecideds he's pitching this to never imagined there'd be a black President in their lifetime.
The close FTW!!!!
wordver: sing
I am I am!!!!!
This is REALLY good.
Honestly, Obama oozes presidential, seems down-to-earth and relatable, gets the facts straight on taxes and healthcare, seems warm and inviting (and attractive) ... the personal stuff is going to lock viewers in -- people love kids and parents and hearing about Obama's mom. Joe the Plumber looks like the biggest joke in comparison to the personal stories from REAL people. This was brilliant politics.
Plus, it I now feel so reassured about his campaign, and his presidency. I can't imagine that undecided viewers won't feel similarly.
This was powerful, FDR, JFK, now BHO
his is the best $3, $4 or $5 million dollars ever spent on a campaign.
Verification: bilin - as in how much spent on the campaign.
B & O railroad is not next to Marvin Gardens. Waterworks is.
kevin:
Don't worry about Intrade. Recall that there was somebody manipulating it last month by buying McCain heavily every night. If you see his chances overvalued, that's a good opportunity to short some McCain futures.
"In six days we can choose hope over fear..."
Technically, they're both TV Barack.
Brilliant to go live to Florida...
scurpo- A bit of penicillin should clear that up
they do focus groups for eeeverything
DAMN!
Bugger... I'm gonna miss it all. At least I'll get to see O and Slick Willy together on stage.
As much as I have supported Obama, and will continue to do so, this didn't work one bit for me. Too much melancholy. I, for one, don't want to have it rubbed in how bad things are. It just turned me off.
Very touching at the end. Roaring crowd while Obama's voice is muted by the crowd "God Bless You, and God Bless the United States of America"
Fantastic!
That was awesome
>>I'm totally depressed because McCain's intrade.com value has risen drastically. WHY? oh WHY???
It went up 3% to like 15%!!!! And Obama is still at 364EVs
if that's drastic then bring it on!!
grolob - soemthing that dangles from a McCain nostril?
unfuckingbelievably good
The music at the end is a bit over the top.
word: mizesmed
caught a few minutes of it via radio. (am at work). Michelle Obama talking about their kids... hate to say it, but with the music in the background, it doesn't *sound* good. Sounds like a cynically sentimntal ad asking for donations to some cause or other. I'll wait to watch it and hope the overall experience is better.
Can't wait to see the focus group on Fox after that. They wanted detail plans and how Obama is going to pay for it, you got his 2nd convention speech... Ridiculous.
BAD NEWS FOR OBAMA:
Rasmussen will release a poll tomorrow that shows that McCain is now trusted more on the ECONOMY.
Tide is turning!!
As the Guinness guys say:
BRILLIANT!
metin - as McCain and Palin metin a broom closet to get all mavericky on each other.
thank you for the utube link!
caleda!
this was good, excelently produced. It need a punch. Where the fuck was Colin Powell. ?I hope Colin and hid wife die regretting their lives. This is one more chance that very smart fucking asshole mised.
Die colin Powell!
Thanks, Nate. And thanks again once today's numbers are done getting crunched.
The Obama team punked the media again. Mark Halperin, Politico.com, etc had been saying this was going to be about tying McCain to Bush. What a bunch of idiots!
I liked the live bit. The pre-recorded stuff is great, but when it's completely controlled, it loses some qualities...It's genuine.
Nate - on the live bit at the end
i think the last 3 minutes was the ace up their sleeve in case any big issues came up in the last day or so that way he could address them when he has everyone attention. kept those 3 minutes for a rainy day.
To bad I have to wait to nov. 5th to vote, because I am a Democratic party member
At 7:19: A 30-hour block? Don't you mean 30-minutes?
Or is one of Obama's campaign promises to extend the day?
Wasn't Bill Clinton supposed to be on at the end?
Good, not brilliant. Colin, Joe Biden, any meaningful fuck? Where were you?
This was great. I am personally pissed. If Colin gets a thought from BHO, it is a mistake. Colin Powell can live with the UN and Iraq to the grave, the fucking wimp just does not get it.
FUCK COLIN POWELL!
VOTE BHO!!!
The show obviously sent shivers up Chris Matthews' leg.
That was a beautiful commercial. It really touched on everything which needed to be said right now and the stories were very relevant to me.
Obama's just knocking this out of the park now, and he's going so positive so close to election day is just inspiring.
I'd much rather vote FOR someone rather than against someone.
Also, funny note. My Word Verification was "Orgyba", Wow.
ljakw -- he's going to be at a late night rally in FL with Obama
ptag
you're kidding right?
Michele on briefly, showing him as an involved dad -- HE READ DAUGHTER ALL THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS! (OT: have you seen the bumper sticker "Republicans for Voldemort"?)
I just have to wonder if this was simply "singing to the choir." Would it change the mind of a McCain likely voter? I see it as more important in GTVO efforts.
Okay, the show's over, now for the polls! (Here in CA, we haven't seen the show yet. I have to wait 2.5 hours. Arrrrrg.)
who thinks picking florida over ohio or PA will hurt him?
WE WANT POLLS!!!
Anyone else get the feeling that Barack is living out that 80's movie 'Brewsters Millions'???
@Fred
Biden appeared in it.
What do you really think about Colin Powell?
So for people like me in California, when I watch again at 8 p.m., when they cut to live in Florida, it will be the 11:30 p.m. (EDT) take with Clinton, yes?
(I heard the Clinton/Obama will appear at 11:30, kinda late?!)
wordver: shlose (silence=loss?...DO SOMETHING!!)
I didn't like that infomercial. It felt Orwellian, and Obama way over-promised. After he gets done with it, the US Tax Code will look even more like Swiss cheese.
What drives Obama?
Why does he want the presidency?
I don't think it's clear.
Great job.
He made the McCain/Palin campaign look totally irrelevant (and tone deaf) to the needs of the country.
The 30 minutes flew by, that was the best sign it was effective.
The live closing was... okay. It would have made such a difference if Senator Obama had addressed the camera directly, if even for a moment.
excellent half hour segment, very smart. it was great that this signature campaign moment was between Obama and us, and didn't at all involve his opponent.
"this was good, excelently produced. It need a punch. Where the fuck was Colin Powell. ?I hope Colin and hid wife die regretting their lives. This is one more chance that very smart fucking asshole mised.
Die colin Powell!"
Jesus Christ, take a chill pill!
----
"7:14 PM. Anyone catch that? RFK High School? Surely not a coincidence, methinks."
I actually did notice that. I thought to myself: "Hmm, is that was the Ronald Reagan school would they have shown the school?"
>_<
So I fully support BHO and can't imagine how anyone could think this man would be anything other than an incredible spokesman for the country, but... I was a bit disappointed by this infomercial. I didn't really feel like I heard anything new. I kept waiting for something new to just hit me and send shivers down my spine, but it didn't happen.
Then again, I'v been paying attention to the basic message (how this country can be great once more, and what it takes to get us there) for a while. Maybe this was more for the undecideds that haven't been following as closely. That's probably what this was, right? Intended to be new and inspiring to those who hadn't heard the message before, and just a reminder and reaffirmation for those who have?
Number of times Obama mentioned McCain or Palin: 0 Well done. All positive. Go Phillies!!
Welcome to the final presidential debate. John McCain, Ronald Reagan, Spiro T Agnew, Richard Nixon, not present.
it definitely felt like it went quickly. it will be interesting to see how/if polls change in the next couple of days.
What drives Obama?
Why does he want the presidency?
I don't think it's clear.
You must have been watching Univision.
'The 30 minutes flew by, that was the best sign it was effective.'
I mentioned the same thing to my wife...It's over already?
This will dominate the airwaves for the next 2-3 days
Entire commercial on youtube minus the live part.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA
Yes lani, i got you though! :)
In defense of Powell, this might've been made before his endorsement.
But if Joe the non-Plumber rears his ugly bald head one for fucking time after this, he needs to die.
hey the blog made it past all the polling data, bully for us!
@lars
I was thinking the same thing. It went by really fast.
inglasi....julio?
McCain CT co-chair: McCain hasn't fought "a clean campaign"
Having just seen Obama today in Raleigh, I think this thing could have used just a touch of the humor that shows in a line like the "[I'm] a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten. I shared my peanut butter and jelly sandwich." When you don't see that side, too, he can get a little too "steady" without seeming quite human.
But it was still way better than I thought it might be. And I have seen a LOT of Obama today! :-)
how predictable! First commercial on MSNBC after the program was a McCain ad bashing Obama!
thank you, vinny.
well said!
Colin Powell sucks. What a smart guy, but he has no fucking balls at all. The UN makes sense now, this defines him. He would not run himslef or stand up for the right candidate. Colin Powell and his wimpy life can end now. That is the take home.
Do people round these parts not understand that this was something very obviously NOT targeted at political junkies? Of course we've heard all this stuff before! It's for those idjits out there who are still waffling and don't have a damn clue.
@PTag: Well somebody has to be last.
Do you think McCain could even fill a half hour without mentioning "Obama" even once? I doubt it.
Blogger Jeff NYC Dem said...
how predictable! First commercial on MSNBC after the program was a McCain ad bashing Obama!
Baseball game as well. I think McCain miscalculated...
Word: lyptor
Okay, for the people who were saying the stories were downers, think about it. Why would you put people on whose lives are great, who are just peachy after eight years of Bush? He's the reform candidate, he's the candidate of change. If things are great and super awesome there's nothing to change. You need people who are struggling, not bitter about it, working to improve, but struggling none the less. I thought this was amazing. Loved it, couldn't take my eyes off of it. It was the perfect tone, he laid out his plans well and executed this very well. It could give him a little boost going into Tuesday.
play ball??? wait!!! polling update!!! who cares about the world series! sheesh!
Obama says we'll always know where he stands; that is not true at all!
I thought it was just okay, but I've been watching everything posted on barackobama.com and following every minutiae of the election. There were points in that where I thought I could recite what was about to be said.
The commercial was definitely for uncommitted voters and people that didn't pay too much attention to the debates. So I'm not sure my opinion matters at all. I'm sure this was focus group-tested.
jeff nyc dem,
You're amazing. Keith O. just mentioned what you said.
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