We have been calling "battleground states" those states projected within five points, and states projected between 5-10 points "penumbra states." These are somewhat arbitrary labels, though ground game’s outer limit when one is overwhelmingly better than another is about five points.
When we last updated 538’s battleground states, we were in the midst of John McCain’s post-convention, post-Palin bloom-on-the-rose period. At that time, McCain’s projected win would be 274-264. Today, Barack Obama has 269 electoral votes outside the battleground zone. That is, if you only give Obama the states he is projected to win by more than five points, that is enough to get him an Electoral College tie, which is essentially the same as a win.
Note that when you see the decimal point Electoral Vote pie chart projection in the upper left hand corner every day, you are seeing the aggregate result of our 10,000 daily simulations. Of course, on Election Day, each candidate will win or lose a particular state. For purposes of this post, we’re not running simulations but handing the total electoral vote victory to the leader.
To break down the math, we project all Kerry states save New Hampshire outside of five points, so that’s 252 minus 4, or 248. Then add Iowa (7 EV), New Mexico (5 EV) and Colorado (9 EV), and Obama hits 269. As Nate has explained, that would be as good as an Obama win. In fact, if we put the line at six points, we’d get the same result. Obama projects to win Colorado by 6.1%
As of this morning before today's polls update, we project Obama victories in Virginia (4.4%), New Hampshire (3.4%), Ohio (2.4%), Florida (2.4%), and Nevada (2.1%), with Indiana a tie. Give all these states to McCain, it’s 269-269 and an Obama presidency. Allocated by lead, it’s Obama 338, McCain 189, 11 tossup. McCain also projects precarious wins in North Carolina (0.1%) and Missouri (0.4%).
This does not include ground game, which is about the effectiveness of each side turning out voters who are reporting their presidential preferences over the phone to pollsters. Nor do all pollsters effectively capture the cellphone effect.
A major caveat. The fact that the race can swing this dramatically in this short a time reflects the truth that a few days in presidential politics can be a lifetime. We are both close to the end and yet nowhere near.
10.02.2008
Obama Projects 269 Electoral Votes Even With Six-Point Cushion
@ 11:45 AM
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187 comments
I'm still crossing my fingers.
There's already a change in strategy. Obama is becoming the statesman politician in getting a bailout passed.
Meanwhile, McCain is on the bench hoping that he's needed on the field.
1980 Part 2?
Not much different to RCP in fact, who have Obama on 259 EVs not including toss-up states. (Minnesota must be about to move to lean Democrat on RCP when the next poll comes out there).
Does this mean that Obama and Dean's 50 state strategy may have been the right move after all? As Obama is now in a position to make this a landslide??
I know enough not to get too excited (I'll never forget the heartbreak of 2004) but this is pretty damn encouraging stuff. Seems to me we're in just about the strongest position possible at this point in the election - barring a huge gaffe from either McCain or Palin.
first-time poster, big-time fan here.
i have a question about the robustness of these results. last time round, palast / fitrakis / wasserman demonstrated that although the polls were "right", they didn't predict the final outcome -- due to reasons such as voter disenfranchisement, long lines, and diebold-monkeying. how sensitive are 538's projections to the fact that there were problems with the actual voting in certain parts? is there any way to estimate the amount of "give" in the model?
great work, guys.
Thanks Nate, your posters were discussing the Kerry minus NH plus IA, NM, CO last week. Glad to get validation.
I still await a Reagan-esque 400+ EV scenario...
Nate, let us know if you manage to speak to RCP about ARG-gate. I would be fascinated to hear their response.
My guess is that they will either ignore your calls or they will pretend that some summer student made the change without authorisation.
Tabula-
Nope - voter suppression, actual turnout, Diebold lies, are not accounted for unless the pollsters do it (and they do not).
The ground game, cell phone only households, AA turnout, are also not accounted for.
You did decide not to correct for cell phone only, right Nate?
"(I'll never forget the heartbreak of 2004)"
Kerry was never in a position that was anywhere close to the position Obama is in now.
Interesting that the percentage for Obama winning the election without Ohio is now 59.10%.
I like to use RCP as a quick glance of the worst case scene!
So when I see O up 5.7 this morning ...
Holy smokes!
Wow! At this point the only thing the Republicans can hang on to is their delusion that (1) there is a Bradley Effect and (2) it's worth 25 points.
Obama, by the way, is quietly going about campaigning just as he has for months, although behind the scenes there have been quiet shifts of resources. His big advantage is resources and his correct decision not to accept public financing. His September money numbers are going to be huge, and he's spending almost all of it wisely.
I don't think we're going to see Obama go to Texas and give the Dallas Business Journal a filmed sit down chat.
Greatest. Campaign. Ever. Refers to the Obama campaign. Much easier to beat McCain that Hillary Clinton. And, amazingly, Hillary's lengthy fight did make Obama a better candidate.
I totally noticed this yesterday. As of this moment in the race, John McCain has no outs.
That may well change, but this is good news!
"A major caveat. The fact that the race can swing this dramatically in this short a time reflects the truth that a few days in presidential politics can be a lifetime. We are both close to the end and yet nowhere near."
This is absolutely true, and maybe it's just that I'm paying more attention but this the most hard-swinging presidential election I can recall. However, I think it's interesting that all of the early voting that's happening this time around means that candidates will be collecting some of those votes right now, so the effect of future swings may be reduced slightly. It adds an interesting wrinkle, anyway.
I'll never forget the heartbreak of 2004
If I'd known about 538 in 2004, I wouldn't have had my hopes so high. At the same time, if election day had been a month later, Kerry might have made it. He'd been very slowly catching up.
Say Obama moves into a 10-point National lead, clear landslide territory. Would the ceiling still be at ~375 EV? With all the 'dark red' in many states, it appears difficult to turn them...even in a HUGE popular vote win.
This ignores Maine-2. Or maybe it doesn't. It's consistently been much more in play than Maine-1, although that may no longer be the case.
poker, the Maine polls have not shown a divergence between ME-1 and ME-2. Nate addressed this in a recent post that I am too lazy to dig up.
The recent days results seem very lopsided. The popular vote is close but the electoral college is quite lopsided. Can you comment on what impact adding the indy vote has done in this situation (as you recently discussed)?
---poker, the Maine polls have not shown a divergence between ME-1 and ME-2. Nate addressed this in a recent post that I am too lazy to dig up.---
Huh. I guess I must have hallucinated that. Never mind, then.
This is my second and final plug for the Fans of FiveThirtyEight.com Facebook group. Join it!
EmonOkari:
RCP is predicting that McCain is on 163 EVs without any toss-up states. But only 5 of those are leaning McCain. The other 158 are solid McCain.
Just a question about the Electoral Vote pie chart projection... since it does have a decimal point, I'm assuming you're just taking an average of all the simulations run. I'm not a statistician, but wouldn't it make more sense to take the median value? I'm not sure how much difference it would make, but it seems that the median would give a more accurate reflection of the likelihood of the final result.
Another first timer posting, if only to say this site has become my first daily stop looking for information about the US elections (I'm European, btw)
Excellent job on the number crunching and analysis so far, Nate - keep it up for another month.
I'm a pessimist by nature, but after looking at the polls the last couple of days...it's hard to think negatively
The likelihood that McCain successfully defends FL, OH, VA, CO, NC, IN, MO... yeah not so much. He'll be lucky to win 2 of those states.
Today's number for Obama: 353
This post is fantastic news!!!!!!!!! For John McCain!!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry, had to do that once. carry on.
The ceiling for Obama seems to be 386.
If you take all of the states where he is within 5% on the snap shot - that gives him Kerry plus NM, CO, NV OH, IN, VA, NC, FL, MT, ND, WV, IA, MO.
Thats 386
Figure if after the past two weeks he cant even get within 5 points then he has no shot there.
I think just taking down the Clinton machine proved that the Obama campaign is unlike any other - very nimble and the first to effectively use the Internet's mass communication abilities to a fundraising advantage.
But I also think Bill Clinton has been incredibly accurate in his assessments and observations throughout the general election season. During the height of the Palin bounce, he remarked, "I think Obama will win, and win pretty handily." I still think that holds, and as another commenter posted, Kerry was never in this position prior to the 2004 election. The race was tight and generally stayed very tight throughout, culminating in another late election night.
"Would the ceiling still be at ~375 EV?"
Kind of. If you play with the interactive maps on RCP or myDD and I think Pollster has one too--you see that it's hard to get a lot above 375 without some pretty unlikely states.
Still, Georgia is at M +6 and the trend (across different pollsters) is steadily down. Who knows?
Pray that a tie doesn't happen. There are ALL kinds of nightmare scenarios extant with the House determining the outcome. It could turn out to be like 50 yr 2000 Floridas. I'm not a fan of the Washington Times, but check out this article:
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/
everybody's worst nightmare
What is the best thing for me to do, if I want to help edge out a win in North Carolina? I have some time to volunteer, not a lot, but I can spend a few hours each week.
Love the site, and found Nate's RCP post interesting.
However, despite RCPs questionable (to put it kindly) methodology, they are predicting Obama to net 353 EV. Nate is predicting "only" 336.
Bottom line: RCPs projections are in line despite their inconsistent poll inclusion criteria.
Put it a different way, GHW Bush won California (!) AND Texas. I seriously doubt Obama will win Texas.
Because the swing to Obama was so fast, I'm having a hard time believing these are solid numbers. His debate performance did a lot to solidify his readiness, so maybe these will stick.
If he can hold above 50 in national trackers for another two weeks, I think McCain will be officially screwed.
And Sean: Sorry everyone calls you Nate.
---"The likelihood that McCain successfully defends FL, OH, VA, CO, NC, IN, MO... yeah not so much. He'll be lucky to win 2 of those states."
The question McCain is asking where does he go first to defend?
Clearly the answer wasn't IA(where he spent one day this week being crabby with the local press..LOL
McCain actually spent TWO days in IA this week. He's up in the fucking ether. No clue about what's happening in this campaign or why.
I bring this over here from the end of the last topic, a great thing to share at your debate party.
If you like really funny parody read this from law professor Eric Schnapper of the U. of Washington in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/381361_palin02.html
Fred, I share your dream of 400 ev, (538 even), but really I think it is pretty clear that 375 is the top end possible and that is a modern dem landslide. A tiny chance to add WV and make it 380 but a guy with a name like McCain has a profound advantage among the "american idenifiers" in them there parts. 375 is a landslide too. For more we must wait until Texas turns blue which is probally close down the road than many people think.
Carolinawren,
Contact your local Obama office. You can do calls or get a walk list. All volunteers are greatly appreciated!
Carolina Wren:
What is the best thing for me to do, if I want to help edge out a win in North Carolina? I have some time to volunteer, not a lot, but I can spend a few hours each week.
If there's a campaign office in your area, go there and tell them what you just said. They will be glad to put you to work.
If you aren't near a campaign office, go to my.barackobama.com and click "Find an Event." It will show you volunteer events near you. That should help you get in touch with local volunteers.
Oops, Matt beat me to it.
I think there is an outside chance that AR might flip also. Clinton has been itching to campaign there and if he maintains the passion he had yesterday...
If you look at the daily trackers, the LV polls are actually better for obama than the RV polls.
I discovered this site a few days ago and can't stay off it. I'm as fascinated by these polls and methodology behind it as my boyfriend is about Chargers stats and league standings :) Finally, something for me! Amazing work, guys.
i don't like what i'm seeing
:-(
great post nate
Today's polls are EXCELLENTLY ENTERTAINING!!! For John McCain!!!
Palin will crush Joe in tonight's debate
YAAAAAAAAAAAY !
I thought McCain had blundered by spending 2 hours in Iowa. I didn't realize it was 2 days!
Maybe 387 is Obama's ceiling, because NE-02 might come into play. That 387 doesn't include Georgia though, which is starting to get closer now.
Real Joe MEANT...
Great Post Sean
Meanwhile, McCain is on the bench hoping that he's needed on the field.
He's the washed up veteran riding the pine who finally gets called in to pinch-run from second base with less than two outs. Ever the gambler, he attempts to steal third base and gets thrown out by a mile.
"The recent days results seem very lopsided. The popular vote is close but the electoral college is quite lopsided."
This is the historical norm. The 2000 and 2004 elections were very unusual in turning on a single state in the Electoral College. Just as some examples,
In 1992, Clinton beat Bush by 5.5% but won the EC 370-168.
In 1988, Bush won by <8% but won the EC 426-111.
In 1976, it was a 2%, 297-240 Carter win.
In 1960, Kennedy won by 0.2% and 303-219.
In 1948, Truman beat Dewey by 4.5% and by 303-189.
Basically, a 4.4% popular-vote win, which is what Nate's predicting, isn't all that close.
old salt... While the article raises some interesting points, it's from the rabidly pro-GOP Washington Times and they are quoting Repub-biased RCP to back up their "what if" scenarios.
I trust Nate's model a lot more, and his numbers give the chance of an Electoral College tie today at 0.39%
So in all, I'm not really worried that anything in the WaTimes article will come to pass.
It would be interesting if the one EV in Omaha ended up making the difference. Any polling info from there?
Obama 355, McCain 183
Oct 2 Polling Update
A New Republic...an Party
Will McCain Re-suspend his Campaign?
Youth Vote: The Draft in Your Future?
A tie is NOT a win for Obama
Either an EC tie, or the scenario listed as "recount", will have the same practical result -- a legal contest of the election.
If it is a tie, or within flipping range from just one state's EC vote, there is almost certain to be at least one state result that is within the 0.5% recount range, the range within which recounts are allowed or required. And once you have a recount, a legal contest becomes possible.
Certainly, recounts and the legal contests arising from them rarely change the original results, therefore most losing candidates dispense with the contest. But I think it quite clear that for presidential races we do not have the usual situation anymore, and will never get back to this "usual" situation, until and unless Bush v Gore is decisively repudiated, and/or the Republican-friendly majority of the SC dies off or is forced from the bench.
A legal contest somewhere probably would be allowed by some state's courts in the event of a <0.5% result. Once it gets into the courts, the Republicans will insure that it rockets up to the SC, where they will get their desired outcome. That some state court somewhere merely agreed to hear the case will give them enough surface plausibility to get to that desired result.
We need to win by such a margin, and in so many states, that it is beyond all but an obvious and blatant judicial steal. Anything less, and an EC tie is way less, and it will be stolen, judicially.
Matt W. Thank you, your quite right, I missed Arkansa. Top EV dream now 386. What a pretty map too, all those states in a row and blue touching Texas from east as well as west.
Putting a pagen hex on Palin. Maybe I can channel as much juice as her witch draining minister.
Given the currently still deteriorating economy - irrespective of whether the rescue package passes or not - and associated news i.e. continued bank and insurance company failures, more businesses firing employees etc. the only game changers for Old Mac would be an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities either conventional or nuclear or a massive terrorist attack. However, given the newness of the new Israeli PM, I doubt very much that anything will happen before the Nov. 4. Terrorist attack before Nov. 4 - not likely as Bin Laden and his compadres rather see Obama in the WH than Old Mac as they believe him to be "softer" than the old warrior - has to do with cultural attitudes. Hence, I would put th chances as remote - better to wait for the period between Nov. 4 and Jan 20! The same goes for Israel!
Just my 2 cents!
matt w said...
Real Joe MEANT...
Great Post Sean
oops !
Great Post Sean
thanks matt w
About a landslide...
1) I'm not going to start bragging about a ridiculous excess in electoral votes until we get past the debates, which are one of the things that could persuade independents. Even then we could have an October Surprise (although nothing short of Obama eating a baby live on television would completely destroy him, imho. A smaller scandal might make it a closer race, but the days when McCain could hope for a landslide himself are over).
2) Electoral votes are not congressmen. They do not vote. To a certain extent, a 350+ EV total is only partisan porn. The actual value of a large electoral college vote is the mandate it gives. There's a school of thought that Bill Clinton was never able to fulfil his full potential because he never got a majority of the popular vote, and so the congressional Republicans didn't respect him. Personally, I think an individual like Newt Gingrich didn't give a hoot about the authority of the president, and wouldn't have been humbled if Clinton had got all 538. It might, however, be slightly more useful with a Democratic Congress (see Clinton's problems with the deficit in 1993, and compare them with LBJ's success after 1964. Although, of course, Clinton was an outsider, and LBJ was the consumate insider).
3) Personally, my hopes for a landslide are pinned on 2012. If Obama is elected, and fulfils his promises as regards Iraq, the economy, healthcare, etc, etc... we may see a remarkable victory.
About a landslide...
1) I'm not going to start bragging about a ridiculous excess in electoral votes until we get past the debates, which are one of the things that could persuade independents. Even then we could have an October Surprise (although nothing short of Obama eating a baby live on television would completely destroy him, imho. A smaller scandal might make it a closer race, but the days when McCain could hope for a landslide himself are over).
2) Electoral votes are not congressmen. They do not vote. To a certain extent, a 350+ EV total is only partisan porn. The actual value of a large electoral college vote is the mandate it gives. There's a school of thought that Bill Clinton was never able to fulfil his full potential because he never got a majority of the popular vote, and so the congressional Republicans didn't respect him. Personally, I think an individual like Newt Gingrich didn't give a hoot about the authority of the president, and wouldn't have been humbled if Clinton had got all 538. It might, however, be slightly more useful with a Democratic Congress (see Clinton's problems with the deficit in 1993, and compare them with LBJ's success after 1964. Although, of course, Clinton was an outsider, and LBJ was the consumate insider).
3) Personally, my hopes for a landslide are pinned on 2012. If Obama is elected, and fulfils his promises as regards Iraq, the economy, healthcare, etc, etc... we may see a remarkable victory.
Some wishful thinking might be involved here, but...
Here is how Obama gets to 400.
All the states 538.com has at blue + the whitest pink states gets you 375, add in Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, (all darker pink) and we're upto 386, then in a coinventional year, you might hit a brick wall, BUT how about South Carolina and Mississippi seeing huge AA vote, or Bob Barr splitting some GOP vote and the AA vote in Georgia winning that state for Obama. The Clinton's might swing Arkansas. Just for fun I added ALL of that up and got to 421. That would really be an astonishing election night, and I don't expect it, but certainly current trens make 375 a possibility.
Hats off to Obama for his 50 state strategy. Not only may it result in an electoral landslide, it will also help democrats in other races, present and future.
OK, what will the state be with the narrowest Obama victory?
Right now I am guessing MO.
tomthres points to one of the advantages of the electoral college. It might mean you can lose the popular vote and win the election, but it does, almost always, give a clear victor. Even stunningly close results can result in a clear win and certainty as to the result (see 1960 or 1968).
I was thinking today that a Romney/Huckabee ticket could very well have won.
Thank god that Evangelicals have enough out-group hostility to demonize Mormons as well!
Ras now has Obama +3 in NC.
Can you imagine what it's like in McCain central as he unleashes his rage?
"i don't like what i'm seeing
:-("
If that means you'll stop your idiotic spamming, it's even better news than it is already.
Has there been a recent IN poll that's not on the sidebar yet? Think I lost track with all the polls rolling out.
I still think McCain holds MO, NC and IN. Still a win for O but not a huge landslide.
Markymark,
The exception was 2000. Bush lost the pop vote, BARELY won FL, and Barely won the EC
So, does S. Schmidt ever find work in a National campaign again?
---"Can you imagine what it's like in McCain central as he unleashes his rage?:
FLA GOP had an OH SHIT meeting yesterday(supposedly secretly but reported) bitching about FLA operations after seing multiple polls with Obama +4 or more the last few days.
"BARELY won FL"
Bush didn't win Florida. You can call it sour grapes, or you can say that those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
Florida in 2000 was, statistically speaking, a tie. The vote was within the margin of error of the polling mechanism.
"So, does S. Schmidt ever find work in a National campaign again?"
Yes--the Republicans will figure out a narrative of "___ stabbed us in the back" and rehabilitate him as "a good man who did his best against the evil hordes."
In fact , "____" might just turn out to be "bankers" (wink wink), paving the way for a return of Joe Kennedy/Father Coughlin Republicanism.
Francis,
I agree he shouldn't have won FL, but he was awarded the win nonetheless.
Actually, I take that back, the right loves Israel too much for a return of anti-Semitism.
Can you imagine what it's like in McCain central as he unleashes his rage?
I'm seeing Ballmer-style chair throwing.
markymark,
That's a fair argument for the electoral college, but even when the popular vote is close, it's not that close. (1960 aside.)
Even in 1968 and 2000, the difference was still hundreds of thousands of voters.
Personally, I absolutely detest the electoral college because it makes tens of millions of voters' opinions completely meaningless in a presidential race. Your mileage may vary - I'm not all that interested in trying to argue or win converts here...I'm just sayin'.
Gallup predictions???
Me: O 49 M 44
OK, Charles & Matt, that was the cold medicine letting me get my dander up. I'm angry McCain! Whee!
What's fascinating to me about this sea change of the past few weeks is that while clearly the biggest reason for the shift was the economy tanking coupled with McCain's convention bounce disappearing, the symbolic turning point was the "lipstick on a pig" moment. It encapsulated the style over substance, "this election isn't about issues", flail away with weak ad hominen attacks and manufactured outrage philosophy that has summed up the McCain general election campaign.
The McCain camp got too greedy and overreached themselves to make an attack most people found patently ridiculous. This was the point that the average voter started to no longer give McCain's actions the benefit of the doubt, and it's impacted the perception of every one of their later gambles (campaign suspension, the general disorganized reaction to the bailout bill, even the Palin pick in retrospect). I think that if this lead holds up (knock on wood), mainstream election history will remember that moment as the bellwether of the cycle.
Charles M. Kozierok said...
If that means you'll stop your idiotic spamming, it's even better news than it is already.
Well said.
Francis,
BUT the McCain campaign looks terrible and is widely criticized for lacking strategy. Schmidt is supposed to at least have a strategy, regardless of getting stabbed in the back!
Gallup 48 -43
"Personally, I absolutely detest the electoral college because it makes tens of millions of voters' opinions completely meaningless in a presidential race."
True that. But I worry that a popular vote would be so unwieldy, especially in a close race. I'd rather see the Maine and Nebraska systems implemented nationwide.
Gallup
48-43 BO
Well I don't have a good idea which state will be the closest if things continue well because NC, WV, and even VA flips are huge shifts from 2004. At the 375 ev level Indiana would have moved the farthest since 2004, 10th best result for Bush, an astonishing 21 point margin. I had an old professor from Indiana who called Indiana the south of the north.
rwd,
OK we had a 3 hour discourse on the merits of the EC the other day. I cannot handle doing it again. Just one quick comment... For close national election requiring recount see Mexico 2006
Yes--the Republicans will figure out a narrative of "___ stabbed us in the back" and rehabilitate him as "a good man who did his best against the evil hordes."
In fact , "____" might just turn out to be "bankers" (wink wink), paving the way for a return of Joe Kennedy/Father Coughlin Republicanism.
I'd think, in traditional republican style, that "____" will end up being McCain...
Can you imagine what it's like in McCain central as he unleashes his rage?
He won't be throwing many chairs. Kicking chairs over, perhaps.
another great day of Obama polling is shaping up. almost surreal, no ?
RR Obama 51 national tracker +7 !!!
RR Obama +3 NC
where does McCain/Palin go to stop the bleeding of the red states ?
even GA is getting competitive again - yes ! Mac +6 & falling... same in WV
CO & VA & FL are looking good, NM & IA are solid blue, MI & PA too as will be MN & WI... OH, NV + even IN, MO trending toward blue
NH is the laggard, wonder what is up ? expect that to show the shift soon
New CNN-Time Poll for Missouri:
Obama 49: McCain 48
Regarding this specific post from Nate, I need more confirmation from polling that Obama's Colorado margin is greater than his national number. Many of the polls used were in the afterglow of the Denver convention. The most recent poll, albeit one poll, only had Obama up 1. A couple of polls showing him up by 5 or more in Colorado in the next few days would definitely make me feel better about Nate's 269 projection even if Obama gives back the lead.
Marc:
What's fascinating to me is that I think Obama intentionally inserted that "lipstick on a pig" commented to lure the McCain camp into a ridiculous over-the-top reaction. You'll remember that directly after that we had the weekend of "The View" and other mainstream media really covering the "McCain is a liar" meme. Then on Monday, Lehman brothers collapsed.
I also think Obama set up a similar moment in the primary - in the interview to the Reno Gazette Journal he made that infamous remark about the Republican party being the party of ideas, and giving Reagan some credit for this (and by extension, subtlely dissing Bill Clinton). Well, right after this Clinton went off - ripping Obama and causing the meltdown of the Clintons in South Carolina from which they never recovered.
I think "______" will end up being Schmidt!
While the news is good we shouldn't assume anything. Now is not the time to kick back and wonder how big the landslide will be - we need to work to make sure that it happens, and that another election isn't stolen out from under us.
Volunteer.
Donate.
If it was pure popular vote CA, NY, TX would be seeing the candidates alot more to increase their margins in states they know they would win rather than going to smalller states. Imagine the cost of advertsiing in NY or CA, it's astronimcal that's why Repubs don't contest it most years.
Quick question: Shouldn't Obama pulling away mean a corresponding effect in all congressional races, especially since the race issue won't be in effect in most of these? What I mean is, in a given state such as Minnesota, won't a 13 point lead translate to a similar win for Al Franken???
"Kicking chairs over, perhaps."
Man, that's going to be hard on the $500 loafers. Good thing he can afford it.
I've been toying with the "which state might flip next" theory too. Here's six that IF (big if) the present trends hold up past the debates (yes, all of them; no I'm not counting on it) Obama could make a run at if he wanted to try to crack 400. I assume for the purposes of this post that Obama will win Kerry plus IA, NM, CO, VA, NC, NV, FL, OH, IN and MO in roughly that order with the lead(s) he has now.
1) West Virginia--With an ass kicking by the governor at the top of the state ticket, the 2nd CD being somewhat in play and the proximity to VA, OH and PA, if Obama was sure he these three states in the bag (PA especially), it wouldn't be hard for his operation to descend en masse. The move against the coal miners union could really backfire against the GOP here.
2) Mississippi--38% AA population + economic populism + tie Wicker to Bush = upset in the heart of Dixie?
3) Montana/North Dakota--essentially the same play: Their cheap to advertise in, you don't have to change many people's minds to move the dial and there's four democratic Senator's between them (plus Schweitzer who has the landslide thing working for him too). When you've got money to burn like Obama does, take a shot; what have you got to lose?
4) Georgia--As Martin's prospects go, so do Obama's. If Election Day finds Martin still inside the margin of error, there's no way you can tell me there will be ticket splitting here. Gov. Perdue's tone-deaf response to the gas shortage—let’s go on vacation! (How do you like them apples all you GOPers who fried Obama for going to Hawai'i?) certainly isn't going to help.
5) Texas--Don't laugh. Median US latino age=27.6. TX = majority minority state. Every possible under-counting factor where pollsters are concerned (excluding the hopefully put to bed Bradley Effect) slants in favor of Obama. If Obama really is up 6+ points on Election Day, whose fans are going to come out? Hint--not the team who's down 3 touchdowns late in the fourth quarter...
eric,
This specific post is not from Nate!
Pay attention to the bylines!
To anyone concerned about the integrity (or lack of) in our vote counting, you should be.
http://mustbefed.com/2007/09/06/deboldthe-real-story.aspx
For an interview with the founder of mustbefed.com, a real-live network architech who knows the electronic voting systems flaws, visit www.tomhartmann.com .
Sorry I meant 11 point lead in my previous post, based on the most recent poll.
I can see Obama getting to 401 - maybe if the stars align 410.
538's current blue states + NC, IN & MO. That part seems almost likely at the rate McCain is imploding.
Then add in MT,ND WV, GA and just maybe, LA and you get 410.
The further McCain sinks in the polls the more likely we'll see open rebellion going on in his campaign that will make the HRC campaign look like a well oiled machine.
Any state that Obama is within 5 point I think he has a shot at.
Matt W, I know, don't want to go there...but with all the republitrolls suddenly absent, we need something to talk about!
I am in MO and would love to help the Obama campaign, but the county I live in is historically and presently very hostile to Democrats . . . so much so that no one files for any county seat as a Democrat. I am genuinely afraid of repercussions if I try to get involved in D political activities here. This is a county famous for its suspicious fires, unsolved homicides, and untrustworthy law enforcement. It's very sad and more than a little frightening. So I retain my residency for voting purposes in another location . . . and send money to Obama. Sorry I can't help swing this state any other way.
troubleinMO: How long would it take you to drive to a "safe" county??
Rwd,
fine then...
If all states went the NE ME route then some congressional districts would get 3 electoral votes while others would get 1.02. That is obviously unfair
troubleinMO,
you could still phone bank!
I think you guys are counting your chickens way too soon. My bet is that Palin does well tonight and many of those states that recently flipped for Obama will go right back to McCain. This is still a very close race.
On the other hand if Palin pulls another "Couric" performance, it's over.
trenchman,
The only other state that has remote chance of flipping IMO is GA. This is still a remote chance IMO.
1)Obama laid early ground work in GA with registration, offices, GOTV..he pulled some of the field operatives and TV ads to push for NC, but he could move a few back.
2)If discontent with McCain grows Barr might start pullling a higher % of the vote in GA
3)Big AA population.
I don't think any others are flips b/c the margins are huge and the operation background weren't as preformed. Other states he targeted early with operations such as ND,SD have shown no movement and the margins are huge.
sorry, some CDs would get a little less then 1.04 EVs
That's good question, Kid G. Another future Nate Silver post: how will Obama's GOTV operation affect downballot races?
jnorthrop,
I am really glad that my candidate is not banking on a strong performance from Palin! That has to be an uncompfortable position
it is very quiet [cricket chirp]
where are the GOPer shills like Pete & Jack ?
almost miss them [not]
but an echo chamber is disconcerting, so it would be welcome to get some balance from a few reasonable opposition types
in the meantime, let's not get over-confident.
I expect a regression to the mean later this month.
Hoping that the 'mean' remains close to Obama 50% national / 300+ EV.
with every day that RR tracker remains over 50%, that will help the general narrative & mean
@matt w -
I'm a proud left leaning liberal. As such I'm also a realist ;)
Dow down 300 points today so far. If the Bailout passes tomorrow are we looking at a 500 point gain, and if it DOESN'T pass are we looking at a 500-1000 point loss?
The DOW will be very interesting tomorrow especially if the Dow stays down 300+ points today.
Sean & Nate,
From now on, I think it would be faster to talk about Gore states + CO rather than Kerry states - NH + NM + IA + CO, since Gore did win NM and IA and lost NH and otherwise matched Kerry.
Excellent posts this beautiful morning without Trolls. Win polls plus ignore is a good recipe.
A fun evening awaits, unless Sarah the Huntress turns out to capture the less involved in her low expectations trap. They seem to have made a strong move to induce softballs from the moderator. Pretty much the norm from NPR anyway.
Re: Palin, I've been seeing plenty of articles saying that the VP debate does not really change voters' minds, to wit: Quayle/Bentsen. Even if Palin does "better than expected," I don't think it's going to move the numbers. McCain needs her not to look like a moron to mitigate the erosion in the base, and I'm sure she can do that. But it's not going to stem the blue tide.
jnorthop,
After watching the Couric interview where she asks Biden and Palin the same questions I have little hope for a strong Palin performance. The difference between the answers they gave were glaringly obvious she was out of her league with Biden. Her only hope is multiple, multiple self inflicted wounds by Biden.
@jerry056 --
My bet is the market has already figured in the bailout passing -- there is no upside to that. There is plenty of other bad market news that is pulling it down.
Huh
ME and NE give the winner of the state two votes and the winner of each district a vote, no one gets three votes.
jerry,
If the "rescue" doesn't pass the house tomorrow then the DOW will drop at least 1000, it might drop fast enough to blow a circuit breaker.
It will drop more if they have a vote that doesn't pass. If they decide they cannot bring it for a vote it will drop the same, but slower
Matt,
49 - 43
If you folks believe that a landslide translates to a mandate, a 60-Senator Majority by Dems, and perhaps a sign of long-temr potential for the party, well then ok great. But, I just want a win for Obama, 269-269 House Vote for Obama and he's President just as a 400 electoral vote landslide would make him President. Catch my drift. Focus on the tipping points more than the North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Texas scenario.
Thomas,
Some states only have one congressional district, so they already get 3 votes. IMO that is the most unfair part of the current system
@borderpeak - "Excellent posts this beautiful morning without Trolls."
I can play a troll...
When Bradley rears his head over the United States you know where he goes? OH and PA. And you know where else? ... well, I'll get back to ya'.
The market is down for other reasons besides the bailout. There has been a bunch of bad economic news today...unemployment at 7yr high and factory orders down 4%.
And to think that these results don't even include all those amazingly good (for Obama) polls from CNN et al. yesterday. There were at 3 that had him up by 3 or more points in Florida, for example. Good ones in OH, VA, PA, NV, WI, IN, IA, too. I eagerly await seeing what the map will look like when they are added.
As an Obama supporter the idea of a 1980 Reagan style ass-whipping sounds great. Unfortunately, we have to be realistic. Despite all of Obama's strengths and advantages at this point, there is NO WAY he is going to win NE, KS, AL, AK, ID, or KY. Of course, this list would've been longer a month ago, but there just isn't enough time for the people in those states to see the light as well.
Interesting how AZ doesn't make the list of states that Obama has NO chance of winning.
One thing I will note is that no matter how unrealistic Obama's chances are of winning a particular state, he has generally closed the gap in all of them.
I think nobody cares about the VP debate any more.
Oh, add UT to that list of states that Obama has almost no chance of winning in any election in any year.
Cora,
it IS
Obama 48
McCain 43
I'd say the House has a 25-40% chance of not passing the bill tomorrow. If they really don't pass it and imply that they're likely not going to do anything for a while and just see how everything plays out we could lose 20-25% on the indexes in a couple weeks. Car companies, Airlines file for bankruptcy. Small busineesses file in larger numbers than we've seen in 80 years. Credit frozen. Cities file for bankruptcy. Real estate drops another 15-20%. We'd be totally screwed. Virtually every economic expert has said that you have to do something fast or we FUBAR. Tweaks to the Paulson plan should be able to get 218 votes. The garbage the house Republicans want to push could never pass. The ideas the Blue dog Dems have wouldn't either. I hope many of the House members that vote no shockingly lose races they didn't epxect to lose. Total blindsides. Teach them a lesson to do what's best of for the country, not what they think is best for them politically!
I think the VP debate has no upside for Biden, limited upside for Palin, but potentially a LOT of downside for both.
Overall it is a negative sum game!
There is limited upside for Palin - to really come uot with a gain she has to look more tha just witty and fun - she has to look presidential.
But if she looks like she did with Couric - McCain drops another 3-4% and its all over.
Glad to see this shaping up as it is. Now, I no longer have to worry much and/or argue about who might be president. I can know ahead of time who will and make the necessary preparations for what's going to be one awful administration and countless mistakes and f-ups.
Thanks, Nate, for letting me know the certainty with which despair is looming.
This guy will actually make Bush look decent. And that's terrible.
Muhlenberg Poll PA:
Obama 50
McCain 41
Yeah, 30 days can be a lifetime. According to your model, that happens, um, about 14.6% of the time at this point. In other words, it's still a roll of the die - but McCain has to roll a 6.
And that is with generic candidates. Who here thinks McCain's chance of a smart play are as good as the average candidates? Who here thinks that Obama plays it as risky as the average candidate?
In other words, can't help gloating.
eric,
agreed.
I also hope all those who came out with the stupid "Pelosi's speech made it fail" line lose unexpectedly. Probably won't but that was petty and STUPID
"Despite all of Obama's strengths and advantages at this point, there is NO WAY he is going to win NE, KS, AL, AK, ID, or KY."
As someone who lives in KY I wholeheartedly agree. The 2 cities (Louisville/Lexington) will be pro Obama but the other 75% of the population of KY will probably go 80-20 McCain. I'm seeing Obama bumper stickers everywhere where I live in Louisville but it's probably the exact opposite just outside this city.
As for the bailout, I think this will pass the House tomorrow, probably by about 50-60 votes. I thought the Monday version would pass to however so no one knows until the vote is finished.
Mule,
You want some cheese with the whine?
OTF,
You ought to have plenty for all that you've been doing the last 8 years. Sucker.
just LUVIN' the latest EV Distribution graphic at the top right...
all those beautiful blue peaks in the 290-390 range...
almost hard to see the tiny bit of red smudged along the bottom of the bar...
should look even better tomorrow after the next run of simulations !
"Thanks, Nate, for letting me know the certainty with which despair is looming.
This guy will actually make Bush look decent. And that's terrible."
Well, glad to see you've finally dropped your pretence about being neutral and/or not favoring McCain. LOL.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081002/pl_politico/14181;_ylt=Atu4HOCcl9.NEYOEZjSY9FNsnwcF
The above article is absurd to me. The biggest hurdle McCain likely can't overcome is that women can't tolerate a ridiculous choice for VP that is suppose to represent the best we have to offer. She is an unbearable weight on the ticket and the fact that you can pluck a couple of former female Republican Governors from Red states that say she's not getting a fair shake is meaningless. There's a good reason McCain/Palin have lost 20 points in the polls with women. The game is up.
Latest Arizona State AZ poll has McCain only up 7! GA by only 6! TX and MS in single digits, too. Also, in addition to the ones I mentioned earlier, we have Obama up 10 in MI (PPP) and Rasmussen has him at +3 in NC. There's even a CNN poll with him ahead in MO. So in the past 2 days there have been polls putting him ahead in every toss-up state except NH (no polls) and IN (McCain still +1).
dcm,
Nate will do the next update today!
@karen:
"What's fascinating to me is that I think Obama intentionally inserted that "lipstick on a pig" commented to lure the McCain camp into a ridiculous over-the-top reaction."
I've heard that line of thought before, albeit mostly from conservatives trying to justify their "outrage" - McCain's "Senator Obama chooses his words very carefully" comment, for example. Haven't heard many on his side say so, but it's intriguing to think about.
If he's slick enough to insert phrases and key words premeditated to seem innocent on their face but provoke a shrill overreaction so he can play the "Grow up, there are serious issues at stake" card, then he's a much better politician than I'd thought (and I already thought he was plenty good, particularly in more covert areas) - of course, it also means his "Periodically, when she's feeling down, the claws come out" comment about Hillary was probably calculated too. Hard to say if it's true, but we'll see if the pattern continues.
One thing that hasn't really made 'news', was Obama using a certain word multiple times yesterday: 'sacrifice'.
I wonder, would Warren Buffet have the skill-set needed to be Treasurey Secretary in an Obama administration? He definitely knows his way around the investment markets. Just not sure what other areas that the Treasury Sec deals with that Buffet might not have experience with.
Mule:
Way to root for America to fail, you pathetic America-hating coot. :~)
Barack Oabama will be an outstanding American President.
peixegato,
blatant conflict of interests.
Mule Rider said...
Glad to see this shaping up as it is. Now, I no longer have to worry much and/or argue about who might be president. I can know ahead of time who will and make the necessary preparations for what's going to be one awful administration and countless mistakes and f-ups.
Thanks, Nate, for letting me know the certainty with which despair is looming.
This guy will actually make Bush look decent. And that's terrible.
I'm curious as to what preparations you are taking? I'd suggest looking for a new country to move to, that way you can avoid paying 'painful taxes' to the United States government.
Send us a postcard!
there is a new thread!
Jerry056: I also live in Kentucky (Lexington, the other Obama strong hold) and two weeks ago would have agreed with you that there was zero chance of an Obama victory. However, today I am not so sure. The rabid Hannity listening Republicans that I know from outside the golden triangle are VERY discouraged. I have had five tell me within the last week that they are either not voting or voting Barr (who I don't even think is on the ballot here).
Now, I am not saying that I think Kentucky will try blue, but I am willing to now consider the possibility. Just look at how Lunsford has closed in the polls over the last week.
If the AA population turns out in force in Louisville, the blue-bloods in Lexington go Obama and fiscal conservatives in Northern Kentucky stay home, I think it might just be possible.
Mule Rider said:
OTF,
You ought to have plenty for all that you've been doing the last 8 years. Sucker.
Since OTF probably won't respond to your childish taunt, I thought I would take the liberty.
I know you are, but what am I?
MATT
I realize Nate will update at least onmce today - but his model does not react immediately to swings until they get additional confirmation.
Nate's projections are now trailing behind the snapshot sites, and will probably continue to trail them for at least a few more days IMHO.
BUT then if the trends continue, I would not be surprised to see Nate's model start to lead the snapshot sites like RCP in predicting a larger margin IF the trends & polling data continue to show the rising tide pulling in those swing & leaning states...
But that is the inherent beauty of this site. It is a long-term model that uses hard data analysis to smoothe out the wild gyrations & short-term bounces.
Hoping this is not a bounce that fades !
go Nate !
"Latest Arizona State AZ poll has McCain only up 7"
I'd love to see Obama do a rally in AZ just to stick it to McCain. Then go visit TX and GA. And Alaska if he has time.
Good one jnorthrop. Along the same lines and at the risk of being a jerk i post this link for the third and final time because it is really really funny!
Law professor Eric Schnapper of the U. of Washington in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/381361_palin02.html
Not me happy to see the markets crash. Back to work until I'm 80.
I think there is a new KY poll coming out today. I would not be surprised to see the race here within 10 points.
To quote Kodos from the Simpsons: "Set grid co-ordinates for BOB DOLE!"
That's exactly where McCain is headed, at least in terms of election night results.
MattW,
Couldn't he put his investments into some sort of blind trust or something? I mean surely Paulson had similar issues, even if on a much smaller scale.
My point was, curernt investment activities aside, would Buffet be qualified to be Treasury Sec? When you find the right person, you find a way to make it work, assuming of course that Buffet would want to be bothered with the position to begin with.
NATE
Rahm Emmanuel is on MSNBC & just 'mentioned' that he was also at the Cubs game last night....
is Rahm already actively campaigning for the 'open' Obama senate seat in IL as of 1/20/09 ???
Obama has a greater chance of flipping GA than McCain does of winning NM.
Calculating numbers for the "blue sky" Obama landslide, I notice two sources have not been explicitly mentioned:
1) That single EV in NE. I figure Obama will pick that up long before some of the more exotic wins, like SC or AR.
2) Arizona. From what I've read, McCain's support here is a mile wide & barely an inch deep. Once it's clear that McCain's chances are toast -- say Obama is up 5+ in IN, MO & NC -- I wouldn't be surprised if there is a grass-roots rebellion against McCain in AZ. The Republican party there sits on their hands, the rank-&-file decide to either cross to Obama, for a third party choice (who else is on the ballot there?) or just stay home.
Hmm. Adding both of these to the last figure I saw above (421), the ceiling now becomes 432, with 397 a far more plausible number. (Sorry, I don't buy into all of the pickups in the southern states.)
And to point out the human side of this race, this must be taking a physical & emotional toll on McCain. He's 72, suffered as a POW, & currently has some medical issues. If he loses, I hope there's someone there to offer him support -- writing as just one human being about another.
(As for Palin, while I feel sorry that she sucks at campaigning on a national level, my concern for her ends there.)
Geoff
Mason Dixon Poll VA:
Obama 45
McCain 48
Interesting that last Mason Dixon Poll was LV and they switched now to RV. Most pollsters switch from RV to LV as the election gets closer noth the opposite.
takestock said...
"Latest Arizona State AZ poll has McCain only up 7"
I'd love to see Obama do a rally in AZ just to stick it to McCain. Then go visit TX and GA. And Alaska if he has time.
Wouldn't that be something! What a picture that would be, Obama drawing BIG crowds in McCain's home state. I think if Obama campaigned there, that may just make it competitive.
Not going anywhere. Not rooting for failure. Just saying that a liberal neophyte will overreach badly with the backing of a strong Democratic Congress, and there will be a lot of bad policies enacted that are knee-jerk reactions to try and swing the pendulum hard left from currently being hard right instead of resting in the center.
I've never rooted for this country to fail. But I have rooted fervently for the failure of bad politicians.
Charles K.
I'm hardly pro-McCain because I think so ill of Obama. If I were to rate them on a 1-100 scale, I put Barack at about a 5 - McCain at about an 11.
It's that bad to me. Truly, the lesser of two evils, but I don't really want to see McCain/Palin in power either.
Started out for McCain, but the man made me sick with his post convention lies. Enough. As for Obama, yes, lesser of two evils, so....Watchout for stumbles by joe tonight. Palin is no pushover. Hope not, but can never rule out Joe putting his foot in it. Between now and election day (mail in ballots are already on stream), turnout is the key for Obama. He needs maybe a 0.5-1 pt cushon to cover Bradley. Great site, will stay with you guys. first time post. Enjoying this election season.
Anybody have a link to the AZ state poll?
In an analogy that perhaps only Nate, and other baseball purists can appreciate, Obama's current electoral outlook reminds me of the squirming discomfort I felt when the 1999 Red Sox handed the ball to knuckleball replacement closer Tim Wakefield with "comfortable" 3 run leads in the 9th inning.
It's the epitome of "cautious optimism," to say the least. Don't forget that just three weeks ago Nate opined that the only reason Obama should maintain a ground game here in North Carolina is to help out Kay Hagan. Now it's a toss-up. Who knows what the next 4 1/2 weeks will bring.
Warren Buffett is 78 years old....
The richest man in the world....
Lives a quiet life in an old house in Omaha far from Washington and NYC....
Would have the largest conflict of interest re his stock holdings in the history of the world....
You tell me, using Nate's methods -- what are the odds of someone with those stats wanting to be Sec. of the Treasury?
76 gazillion to 1, perhaps?
server problems again today
Nate is too popular...
damm fanboys...
@AndreasF
"Terrorist attack before Nov. 4 - not likely as Bin Laden and his compadres rather see Obama in the WH than Old Mac as they believe him to be "softer" than the old warrior - has to do with cultural attitudes."
Don't kid yourself. Bin Laden will attack the United States whenever and wherever he can.
And as for "softer": that echoes Bin Laden's supposed preference of Kerry over Bush. In point of fact, Bin Laden couldn't have been granted a better adversary than W.
Bin Laden wants Americans on Arab soil. Easier to kill Americans and easier to recruit Islamic terrorists. W obliges. Bin Laden wants a relatively safe geographic base along the P/A border. W obliges. Bin Laden wants toss out secular Mideast governments like the old Iraq. W obliges. Bin Laden wats to bankrupt the West. W obliges. From where I sit, looks to me like Bin Laden should be pulling for more of the same. And more of the same is going to be McCain, not Obama.
I don't relate to the optimism you feel regarding a tie, Sean. As I read Nate's post,and other posts on the same topic elsewhere, a tie was still somewhat of a toss-up. Consider the number of states where the sole representative is (or is expected to be) a Democrat but the state is expected to go red in the big race. Consider the fact that Blue is, generally, concentrated in the larger states (getting CA, NY, IL, PA... with the exception being Texas) and red tends to get most of the smaller states (though the Dems pick up a couple in the Northeast). This plays against Obama in the tie case.
I'm not saying BHO loses the tie case -- and Biden certainly doesn't, which means at least no Palin -- but I wouldn't put good money on his odds of winning it that way.
I notice you list Alaska with the Big Sky states instead with the Pacific, where it belongs. Alaska is two time zones away from the Mountain time zone (Big Sky country), and it has more coastline on the Pacific Ocean than the rest of the country put together. Please learn some geography. Other than that, great site.
269. Is this why McCain is going to try to get something going (picking off an EV) in ME rather that going for broke in MI?
Who do you want to run your country? You want a statesmen running things, that's who. Everytime a Republican uses the word elite like its a bad word, I cringe. Why do they do that?
Elite (also spelled Élite) is taken originally from the Latin, eligere, "to elect". The position of an elite at the top of the social strata almost invariably puts it in a position of leadership. So you want the elite to run our country. By definition!!! Who else?
There are farmers. Sure, we need farmers. We need men that understand how things grow, the best pesticides to use, how genetically enhanced food will eventually start to effect our physical evolution, how to clean water, how to irrigate, how to make dry areas green, how to effectively fertilize without having any ill affects on local water systems. How to thoughtfully bring the grow areas closer to market so that we save on energy and travel costs. We need farmers. We need smart farmers. But we don't need them to run the country.
We need dentists and doctors . We need people who have spent their years learning to keep our bodies healthy and save lives. Dentists and doctors are essential to prevent the spread of massive disease and thereby head off all sorts of economic and environmental disasters. But we don't need one to run our country.
We need teachers. Someone must gather the mistakes of the past, and teach those lessons to us as children, so we can build on that information and offer a better life to our kids. We need teachers to give us basic skills like reading and math and language in order to function effectively in society. We need teachers to introduce us to imagination, art, and music. And at the very least, we need teachers to watch the kids for a few hours so as parents, you can have some sanity. But we don't need a teacher to run the country.
We need builders. Someone has to know how to make brick and mortar, how to create a home, how to make it safe, bring in plumbing and electricity, and construct a family's home base to return to generation after generation. But we don't need a builder to run our country.
We need sheriffs. Someone has to stop those with mad cow disease from killing, raping, stealing, and swindling the rest of us. But we don't need that sheriff to run the country. We need him to run the legal enforcement system.
We need generals. We need those who clearly see chess-like decisions 30 moves ahead and can instill bravery and duty in their men. But we don't need those generals, skilled in the art of war and destruction, to run our country.
We need soldiers. In a time of crisis, we need them to save and rescue. In a time of fear and intrusion and attack, we need those who will rise and defend us. We need those who will follow orders and trust in their commanders to see the bigger picture. But we don't need them to put down their weapons and lead the country.
Leaders should be leaders. Those who listen and engage those around them. Those who amalgamate and gather information. Those who surround themselves with uninterested parties. And if there are special interest people in our leader's inner circle, let them be the type of people who work for the greater good. A leader should be someone who can compromise and negotiate. Those who understand job creation. Someone who is compassionate. We need a leader who can analyze data. Someone who makes friends and allies. A leader should be able to keep the cost of living down. Our leaders should be those who choose peace and can and will build a framework to keep it. Although I am more spiritual than religious, I feel that those who are pious and moral would make the best leaders. Answering to a higher power is always a good motivation for making the best decisions. Leaders should be hopeful and undamaged. We need someone who is as whole emotionally as possible, not someone who could easily have been deeply affected by being kept in a hole.
Leaders should be leaders. Those who have peaceful homes and respect the constitution of family and marriage. Those who are engaging and endearing. Those without bloodlust. Those who do not wish to instigate (audio of McCain on wanting to be where the guns were firing to be inserted here), We need those who deliberate. Those who know its easier to say no, than to say yes, but still chose to say yes. We need problem solvers, peacekeepers, those who can hire well (Rick Davis et al data here). Those who are well informed and instill loyalty. That is to say, if they don't know something, those closest to our leader make sure they find it out, and quickly, almost before anyone else.
Leaders should be leaders. Those who value education above all. Not someone who puts down anyone with an education. A leader of this country should remember the tired, the helpless, the poor. Our leader should understand the incredibly valuable commodity that our country has to offer, opportunity. Our leaders should hold that opportunity dear and do all they can to keep it accessible, abundant, and contemporary. Our leaders should understand that upholding the availability of opportunity is the best export we have and that channeling that opportunity into the green job market would be for the good of our planet. Our leader should be someone who can get the world to join us in our efforts and maybe even recruit those allies to help us fund worldwide green research and implementation. Our leaders should walk the walk and drive a green car to be a good example for the nation. And when our economy is in trouble, we need someone who will sound the alarm, early on (see footage of Obama) and not try to lull the masses (see video of McCain).
Leaders should be leaders. Those who are willing to admit and point out when others are right. Those who can look you in the eye. We need someone you can innately trust. Those who get involved the minute there is a problem, and start working toward a solution (Bush continued to read to the kindergartners on 9/11, McCain stayed in NY two extra days when the economy crashed and did not participate in negotiations). Our leader should know basic geography. For instance, Spain is in Europe, not in Latin America, not in Mexico, and not in our hemisphere. Iraq doesn't border Pakistan.
Leaders should be born leaders. Those who can unite minorities and raise them up to the level of everyone else. The history of the United States is fraught with mistakes, massive slavery of a people, annihilations of the native Americans, persecution of the native Hawaiians, disregard for the native American Eskimos. This legacy must no longer be passed on.
If you look at all the living ex-Presidents, you will see that the 4 or 8 years really age them. They almost seem to age quicker than the rest of us. Maybe its the stress, the lack of sleep, or the critics, but each time the office seems to take its toll. We need someone who can take the ageing element out of being President, by starting out younger.
We need heroes. We do. We treasure them. We look up to them. We respect them. But in a leader, we need someone who will use their reach to gather solutions, not reach out to their minions and encourage them to "kill the other guy." (See different messages that went out from both campaigns. Barack asking for suggestions, McCain asking his camp to continue to slander and defame the other guy.)
Can you honestly say that McCain is this leader?
yes
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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