10.05.2008

New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup

Or Indiana, or Missouri. Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny write today that:

Just six states representing 78 electoral votes — Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia — are tossups.
Here are the last seven public polls of North Carolina.

10/1, Obama +0.1 (Elon)
9/30, Obama +3 (Rasmussen)
9/28, Obama +2 (PPP)
9/28, McCain +3 (ARG)
9/23, Obama +2 (Rasmussen)
9/19, tie (Civitas)
9/18, tie (PPP)

Colorado is called a battleground. Here are the last eight public polls there:

9/28 Obama +1 (Rasumssen)
9/24 McCain +3 (ARG)
9/23 Obama +3 (Rasmussen)
9/23 Obama +9 (Insider Advantage)
9/22 Obama +4 (CNN)
9/21 Obama +7 (PPP)
9/21 Obama +1 (Ciruli)
9/18 Obama +4 (Quinnipiac)

But by comparison Indiana is not called a battleground. Here are its last seven public polls:

9/29 McCain +3 (SurveyUSA)
9/29 McCain +1 (Research 2000)
9/18 McCain +2 (Rasmussen)
9/16 McCain +3.5 (Big Ten)
9/16 McCain +3 (ARG)
9/15 Obama +3 (Selzer)
9/15 McCain +5 (CNN)

New Hampshire is called a battleground:

10/1 Obama +10 (Rasmussen)
9/28 Obama +12 (SRBI)
9/23 Obama +1 (Strategic Vision)
9/23 Obama +4 (Research 2000)
9/23 McCain +2 (Rasmussen)
9/23 Obama +1 (Suffolk)
9/19 Obama +3 (Marist)
9/18 McCain +2 (UNH)

But Missouri is not, during the same time period:

9/29 Obama +1 (CNN)
9/24 McCain +2 (SurveyUSA)
9/23 McCain +1 (Research 2000)
9/17 McCain +4 (Research 2000)

Here’s Florida:

9/30 Obama +3 (Insider Advantage)
9/29 Obama +8 (CNN)
9/29 Obama +4 (Suffolk)
9/28 Obama +3 (PPP)
9/28 Obama +8 (Quinnipiac)
9/28 McCain +1 (SurveyUSA)
9/28 tie (Rasmussen)
9/24 McCain +1 (Rasmussen)
9/24 Obama +6 (Quinnipiac)
9/24 Obama +1 (ARG)
9/22 McCain +3 (Strategic Vision)

Here's Ohio:

9/30 Obama +6 (GQR)
9/29 McCain +1 (SurveyUSA)
9/29 Obama +2 (InsiderAdvantage)
9/28 Obama +8 (Quinnipiac)
9/28 McCain +1 (Rasmussen)
9/24 McCain +1 (Rasmussen)
9/24 Obama +7 (Quinnipiac)

Here's Nevada:

10/2 Obama +4 (Rasmussen)
9/30 Obama +1 (InsiderAdvantage)
9/29 Obama +5 (CNN)
9/28 McCain +2 (ARG)
9/19 McCain +0.5 (Suffolk)
9/17 Obama +2 (Project NewWest)

Here's Virginia:

9/30 McCain +3 (Mason-Dixon)
9/29 Obama +10 (CNN)
9/29 Obama +6 (InsiderAdvantage)
9/28 Obama +3 (Rasmussen)
9/28 McCain +3 (ARG)
9/25 Obama +5 (Rasmussen)
9/21 McCain +2 (Rasmussen)
9/20 Obama +6 (SurveyUSA)
9/20 Obama +8 (ABC/Post)
9/20 McCain +3 (Mason-Dixon)

Why does the New York Times call Colorado and New Hampshire battlegrounds while Indiana and Missouri and North Carolina are not?

162 comments

Mathis said...

Because they're not paying attention?

Jonah said...
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Big No said...

Same people who were seduced by his "maverick" theme for years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tR3voTMGDY

nate said...

Feels like this article was written 10 days ago...

"...the most margin he can get is four points?" said Bill McInturff, one of Mr. McCain’s pollsters.

inoljt said...

I don't think the NYT is updating that map; some of the state profiles are dated pre-primary. They probably know everybody's going to RCP.

Joel said...

Because they're too afraid of being smeared as "biased".

B. Tau said...

Honestly, we're tired of 2008. Onto 2009 election cycle

Check it out.

Sid said...

I think they were referring to battleground states in the same way that your website refers to 'tipping-point states'.

MO, IN, and NC, do show that Obama and McCain are neck and neck, but those three states are unlikely to be the tipping point of the election, and thus do not warrent major investment by the McCain campaign. The same cannot be said for NH, and CO, which are highly likely to be tipping point states and should be treated accordingly by McCain.

Michael Tiemann said...

Maybe because the Times has already ceded North Carolina to Obama?

Seriously, I live in Chapel Hill, and though I don't watch much TV myself, I rarely pass a TV screen in public that doesn't have the Libby Dole attack ads in heavy rotation (that is, the ads attacking Kay Hagan's record). There's no way any campaign would be spending that kind of money unless the state were a real battleground state.

I think we are a battleground state, and I think that when the election dust settles, North Carolina will figure prominently into the explanation of how the electoral map and the national psyche have changed after 8 disastrous years of George W Bush.

oliver said...

As a new reader, please allow to point out that...

All of these polls are incredible news... for JOHN MCCAIN!

Michael said...

why? because the traditional media like the NY times has to report on the news in general, and can't focus the way 538 does. so it's shallow.

Wilson said...

Yeah it seems like they are about a week late with their numbers.

Or they think the Obama folks are easier to convince to move to McCain? (just grasping at straws).

Wilson said...
This post has been removed by the author.
COPAY said...

Say it all -- racism.

adam said...

They are not paying attention. The full list of battlegrounds:

NV, CO, MO, NH, OH, VA, NC, FLA, IN

In other words, the 9 states that Sean just named.

Darío said...

Gallup 50-43 Obama.

Big No said...

Nate, any follow up on RCP's poll biases?

So What Exactly Is A Maverick?

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

They're probably confident that they're all close enough for the republicans to steal.

Dave Barnes said...

As someone who has lived in Colorado for over 28 years, the poll that most concerns me is Floyd Ciruli's. Floyd knows Colorado extremely well and knows how to poll.
So, I am concerned that he only shows Barack having a 1 point lead.

Vynce said...

Well, if they don't think it's a battleground, that's OK by me... they can prepare a "McCain Wins!" headline and wake up shocked on the 5th.

The media controls the public perception of reality, but when they aren't monolithic & speaking in unison, the public can still notice and mock journalistic laziness.

Chris said...

Please use the same date ranges for polling in all states, to be consistent.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Gallup 50-43
Obama +7

Yay! No Palin bump whatsoever! This race is awfully stable now...Obama has it in the bag.

Sedi said...

Is it because the NYTimes either:
a. lacks an internet connection
b. has never heard of fivethirtyeight.com, Pollster.com, or any other polling site
c. has a vested interest in the race narrowing to a few key swing states, so it can claim that the election is close
d. all of the above

tek said...

Yeah, I am shocked that some people still list WI and MN as tossups. those were never going to be McCains

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

All 3 tracking polls show an Obama +7 today.

These polls are great news...for BARACK OBAMA!!!

GregM said...

I noticed this morning on NBC (Meet the Press, I think) that they had Indiana as a battleground but not North Carolina.

ck said...

Thanks, Sean, I was wondering what you guys would have to say about their assertion.

byzantine330.blogspot.com said...

looks like someone at the NYT hasn't done their homework

looks like OH may not be a toss up if the new poll the Columbus Dispatch is accurate

CO is interesting - seems to be going in the opposite direction to everywhere else

Ed said...

Sean,
Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny are too busy reporting "Conventional Wisdom" to be bothered with data or facts. Daggummit, if Cokie Roberts says it, it must be true, [wink].

Its sloppy reporting like this that always make me laugh when conservatives assert that the media is in the tank for Obama.

SarahLawrenceScott said...

Sean--as you well know, 538 is supplementing data from the polls with information like demographics.

Look at the 538 regression for the states you named: the three that the NYT does not consider battlegrounds give the edge to McCain, the others to Obama.

While the NYT is not using a formula, it could be argued that they are doing something analogous to 538, only they are counting the demographic regression (or, roughly equivalently, past history) more heavily and polls less so.

While we can argue about what the definition of "battleground" should be, and while I would agree with you as to the list and disagree with the NYT, the NYT's list is certainly defensible.

tek said...

Dave I am more conservned with the NE states than the western ones. To me NH has more shadow racists than CO. I think CO numbers will be simmilar to Obama's polling averages while in the NE he will underperform his numbers and overperform in the South

Matt W said...

I completely agree with Sid. This election will not be decided by MO, IN, or NC. They are in play and the polls are close, but they are not the tipping points.
For McCain to have any chance he needs to carry MO, NC, and IN and then also a number of the other "toss-ups" The NYT like most media will focus on the states that are at the margins of victory for either side, not a bunch of states that Obama might also win

Eric said...

North Carolina could be decisive. Early voting in Georgia is heavily skewed toward AA. AA turnout may be extremely high. North Carolina may not only be a "toss-up", but perhaps a tipping point.

Exit polling IMO will be off in favor of McCain unless Obama opens up a ghuge lead. Early voting will favor Obama. This will not be captured in the exit polls on Nov 4th.

cora said...

NYT ran an article on Ayers just before the Palin speech.

AFP:

Alaska Governor Palin, at two campaign stops in Colorado and California Saturday, raised the Ayers connection after a New York Times report on the professor of education and former member of a group of 1960s radicals.

Spoons Fiddlesticks said...

Electoral-vote.com has moved Colorado to "Barely Republican," based on "Mason+Rasmussen+ARG (Oct. 1)." Rasmussen and ARG don't seem to have polls any more recent than those reported here; don't know about Mason-Dixon. But CO has been tracking blue for a while now, and this switch seems odd to me.

Lani said...

Cause they ignorant. They need to visit 538 and get schooled.

Listen, these news outlets need to keep the story interesting. That's all.

And as far a RCP is concerned, I've always believed they are biased in presenting polls. They have to defend themselves so they appear to have credibility, but I don't believe the lie.

538 openly supports Obama, but still reports the FACTS. I mean, you guys couldn't get folks at the McCain offices to talk to you so you could report fairly. They only trust Politico! Now that's fair and balanced. What a joke.

Keep up the good work!

Adanthar said...

I'm resigned to the media trying to downplay Obama in NC. Okay, the narrative hasn't caught up to the polls yet, fine.

But IA/OR/WA as "leaners" just shows the writers as paying zero attention.

Matt W said...

Byzantine330,
The columbus dispatch has THE WORST pollster ranking according to Nate!
If you are worse than Zogby interactive, you do not merit any attention whatsoever.

Chi said...

I read an article which stated that some 'journalists' are simply too lazy to update their act, thus they go with some news that they had pre-written even if it doesn't make sense. This was in response to Mark Halperin's The Page article(about a couple of weeks ago) in which he claimed McCain had won the week after clearly having one of his worst weeks. I think this NYT story is like Mark Halperin's not so off-the-cuff story.

cora said...

Nate, what I meant to say is that NYT is doing ground preparation for the McCain attack campaign.

Dave Barnes said...

OK, theNew York TImes is delusional. I just read the article.

Iowa is "leaning" towards Barack? How does a 10+ point lead, consistently over the last few months, get interpreted as "leaning"?

And, Montana is only "leaning" towards John? I guess an 8 point lead in a moose hunting state is not good enough.

MrInsight22 said...

The analysts are taking demographics and history into account in their categorizations. If Clinton could not get NC either time with Perot siphoning off conservatives nor Kerry with NC's Edwards, it is highly unlikely Barack can do so even if he makes it a close one. Same for VA that even Carter was unable to get in 1976 when he swept the rest of the South.

Today's Denver Post/Mason Dixon poll has Colorado tied.

The Columbus Dispatch has Obama ahead by 7 in Ohio as of last week. But that is Nate's lowest-rated poll in the USA.

peteli said...

Answer: Because the media loves a horse race. A horse race gets higher ratings and sells more papers.

tek said...

what if this election does create a new map? What if Obama loses a couple of northern states like NH and Maine but wins a chunk of the south, west and big sky states?

SuperHater said...

The same reason that the pundits on TV act like the VP debate was competitive...they need the appearance of a "close" race so they have something to talk about.

Note that all of the NYT's "battleground" states are states in which Obama has a lead. If McCain has a similar lead (or even a slimmer one), they're acting like it's in the bag for him. That way, this thing looks close -- when in reality, it'll take a 9/11-sized event to swing it the other McWay.

People can carp about left- or right-wing media bias all they want, but in the end all outlets have the same agenda: ratings.

A blowout election doesn't draw viewers in.

Real Joe said...

Canadians are ready to defend there country from liberal invaders from the USA who will rush into Canada after the election

Canadian Army is ready to defend

bad luck liberal hippies

try getting into Mexico....LOL

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

McCain is now on the complete defensive. It's over for him.

H IN FLORIDA said...

Because... A landslide election is not a good story for the MSM. They must find a way to claim it is a close election to sell newspapers and advertising. They want to campaigns to continue to spend advertising dollars as well which would not happen to the same degree in a landslide election.

It is interesting that neither Al Gore or John Kerry ever reached the 50% mark in national polling prior to election day. That tells you where we really stand.

oliver said...

On a totally unrelated topic, is it wrong of me to say that I like Biden better than Obama? Don't get me wrong; Obama rules the school. But Biden is awesomer. Plus, he gives us "Joe-mentum II: The Revenge."

And in addition: "You dopes just go schooled... Biden-style!" I want that as my cell phone ringtone.

Thank you for letting me ramble senselessly like this.

musicman said...

Interesting tid bit from Rasmussen tracking today:

Obama 51 - McCain 45
45% say they are definitely voting for Obama
38% say they are definitely voting for McCain.

Seems like disgruntled Dems from the primary are warming to Obama.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

The conservatards are going to be the ones running into Mexico after a black liberal becomes president with a filibuster proof senate. lmao!

Herunar said...

Because they don't really know that much about this election. You guys should've realized that by now.

Juris said...

Why does the NYT do it? Because they're incompetent.

Especially about numbers.

That's why 538 exists: to call the MSM when it's brainless.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

I don't see what's so unbelievable about Columbus Dispatch. It's not like their poll is that out of the blue, it has the same result as Quinnipiac.

Gary said...

Did anyone notice that Mccain pulled their fund raising ads from Rasmussen

Lani said...

COPAY says to say racism...

I'm trying not to. But after watching the history of the KKK on TV last night. It's kinda hard not to; particularly the Indiana issue with the Stevenson affair.

I could not help but think of the republicans and their tactics. Oh and Bill O'Reilly talking about minorities infiltrating or replacing the white Chrisitian male leadership in U.S. government.

It is beyond me how the KKK could think Jesus Christ would condone their behavior. Oh and the republicans too.

eve said...

Damn liberal media.

cora said...

something going on at NYT

http://mediamatters.org/items/200810040004

Brian said...

I wonder how Joe McCain calling large chunks of Virginia communists is going to play there.

eve said...

Maybe they got their info from Ahmed Chalabi.

soc said...

The battleground polls appear to tip toward Obama. Maybe the NYT is (realistically) expecting some deception on the part of those polled. A 2-point average lead for Obama may shrink when a lot of old white people just can't bring themselves to pull the lever to vote for a black guy.

thaddeus said...

I've noticed that news organizations go by the nebulous 'smell' test all too often. They leave out missouri because it 'feels' like a redstate. They were very reluctant to include virginia and NC because they 'seem' like redstates. Ditto for ND and Montana.

MSNBC had PA in the tossup category until today. They finally acknowledge that McCain is just not winning a poll there.

I think the McCain campaign telegraphs intentions much more than Obama and tries much harder to swing the press than Obama.

While Obama is just quietly building ground games in MO and GA and NC, McCain has guys calling Chuck Todd giving him a hard time about PA, telling them they are going to make it red this time, to manage the perceptions game. So MSNBC capitulates a bit and gives more credence to McCain's definitions of tossup vs battleground.

However, I think the press is slowly coming around to realize that McCain just doesn't have the polls and doesn't have the time, save a drastic game changer, so they are now just starting to align their predictions and status reports to the actual polls.

So, Sean, expect the press to back your views in about a week.

markymark said...

Maybe they are following a pattern of logic whereby if Indiana and North Carolina and Missouri do go blue then the deal is up and the election lost? Rather than just picking the closest states maybe they are saying that these states are the ones most likely to tip the election??

Vince said...

I'm sick of the mainstream media referring to RCP as the most credible and de facto source for polling information. I've started writing to reporters & editors each time I see a blase reference to RCP as a objective source of data.

I started with Brian Mooney, who wrote an article in the Boston Globe here:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/10/04/obama_gaining_crucial_ground/

He replied, which was great, but it was clear that he totally missed the point - he assumed that I was some McCain hack accusing him of using Obama-tilted polling, when the real point was that 538 is much more objective and transparent than RCP!

I'd love to see media outlets take RCP less seriously & Nate/Sean more seriously! If others are likewise interested, I'd recommend writing the reporters every time you see someone mindlessly quoting RCP as the end-all-be-all of polling!

Eric said...

Nate's model is not perfect, but it's as close as anyone has come. Nate vs NYT, I'll take Nate's projection every time. His thoughts on states in terms of importance can be seen by "tipping Points" to the right:

1)Florida
2)Ohio
3)Virginia
4)Pennsylvania
5)Colorado
6)Michigan
7)Minnesota
8)North Carolina
9)Nevada
10)Indiana
11)Missouri
12)New Jersey
13)New Mexico
14)New Hampshire
15)Wisconsin

It takes into account almost all relevant data that can be used and weights it accordinlgy. although one could take issue with some of the order, it's very close to dead-on.

Jason said...

Worse yet, the video accompanying that story doesn't list *Iowa* among states targeted to switch from R to D (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/04/us/politics/20081004_NAGOURNEY_GRAPHIC.html).

Clearly the newspaper of record isn't trying very hard.

Don't they have editors for this kind of stuff?

OTF said...

Why McCain is defending 8 Bush states and already is assured to have lost 2 Bush states of IA and NM is that he did the same thing as Hillary Clinton. McCain like Clinton ignored Obama's organizing and push early on. Clinton thought it was foolish that Obama was targeting and organizing caucus states. McCain ignored Obama's push into Repub states thinking it was grandstanding to get him to waste money. Now he has to defend 8 states and has to run the table as his only slim path to victory. He just setting up orgainization in IN and NC. McCain has only campaigned in VA once in Aug and Sept and it was reported he pulled some his North VA ads this week. The GOP in FL had an emergency meeting reported on that they think that it may be sliiping away in Fl. Those that that do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it and McCain has repeated some of the same mistakes Clinton made in the primaries.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Obama in the tracking polls today:

Gallup: O+7
Rasmussen: O+7
Hotline: O+7
Research 2000: O+12

Average = O+8.25

eve said...

echoing another comment -- Thanks, Sean. I saw their article earlier and couldn't believe how bad it is.

James Silversmith said...

Maybe its because the polls will no doubt tighten.

The NYT want to cover themselves agasint looking foolish come election day.

If the polls tighten and Obama narrowly wins but loses FL NC MO IN NH and NV then the NYT can say it was right.

If the polls stay wide open they can later move states like Indiana and North Carolina into the toss-up collum easier than moving them back into strong McCain states.

R. Kevin Hill said...

This is wildly speculative, but if North Carolina, Missouri or Indiana were to flip to Obama, this would be attributable to some degree to unprecedented African-American turnout. The Times may feel in its gut that "that sort of thing just doesn't happen." (They've become accustomed to thinking of Virginia as a possible exception, but they're too cautious to think this could be a factor that flips lots of states). Instead of numbers, intuition and history are guiding them, without regard for the unprecedented fact of an African-American candidate. Why they think that New Hampshire is still in play could be because the press has a lot of ground experience covering the New Hampshire primaries, and they think of it as McCain friendly based on recollection of his win there.

Eric said...

Folks that saw This Week w/ Stephanopolous this morning, Sherrod Brown (Ohio Dem) sounded very confident and Mel Martinez (Florida Publican) sounded very shaky.

ogre said...

Because if they announced that essentially all the battlegrounds were on GOP turf... and that there were two handfuls of those battlegrounds, defeat on almost any one of which would spell defeat for McCain, people might get the idea that... his chances are slim.

The odds are starting to look like 2009 and on will be spent in political circles analyzing the equivalent of Cannae.

Eric said...

Obama will get a ridiculous amount of AA support that hasn't been properly accounted for by many. Probably 5,000,000 extra AA votes. This is crazy huge and can only be offset by a chunk of Whites that don't want to vote for the Black guy, but otherwise would vote Dem. States like NC are being misinterpreted by NYT and others.

Real Joe said...

any more polls coming out ?

Brian said...

I would have thought it to be in the interests of a lot of media outlets to keep stressing a close race. Keeps people interested and sells more newspapers. At least that it what the press would do here in the UK.

And I would have thought that it would also be in Obama's interest not to get carried - like some commentators here - with talk of landslides. If the race is perceived to be close, more DEMS will be encouraged to vote. The last thing he wants is the perception that he going to win by a mile and then DEM voters in battleground states not turn out because they think the election was in the bag.

Lani said...

Five sets of polls show Obama at 50or 51% in the last week. This is good news.

Now somebody tell that hypocrite Chris Matthews who kept saying he can't get 50% or why can't he close the sale?

Charles M. Kozierok said...

The simple answer is that these NY Times writers are not polling experts and were being rather lax with their figures.

sherifffruitfly said...

Because AdNags is a wanker.

someperson718 said...

The first response totally answered the question. It's because they aren't paying attention.

sks said...

Nate & Sean,

I know that you have addressed this before - but give us an update. Who does the appearance of a close race benefit? I think that the Times keeping this close may actually be good for Obama as his camp never seems to discount the polls - they like it this way and they are not bragging about number of new voters registered etc.

Please enlighten us.

I spend yesterday knocking on doors in Michigan and they are not impressed with the MCcain cut and run strategy...

whispers said...

The answer, of course, is that it's not "the New York Times" who wrote the article, but rather Adam Nagourney.

The real question here is why they employ a hack like Nagourney, who's been in the tank for the GOP for years. The states you omit are states that McCain supporters cannot admit are being contested. Nagourney is simply interested in the pursuit of propaganda, as always.

soccr234 said...

The fact that Colorado is so close is kind of concerning. The last three polls are tie, +1 Obama, +1 Obama. Meanwhile, Obama is up by six nationally which means his Colorado numbers are running several points behind his national numbers. At this point, he has 264 EVs locked down (Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico). I realize that fivethirtyeight has him winning an electoral landslide right now, but if you are looking for that one more state to put him over the edge, all of the possibilities are running at least a couple points behind his national numbers. If Obama wins by nationally by 6, it won't be a problem, but if he wins only by 1 or 2, he could might not be able to find that one more state.

IBelFuego said...

Because AdNags may understand that there is some difference between his ass and a hole in the ground, but damned if he can figure out what it is.

Real Joe said...



Obama NC Rally

Live Video

http://us.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2

give us a major gaffe :-)

Sam said...

They do it because they want a perceived close election. If it wasn't close people wouldn't pay as much attention and sales would suffer. It's that simple

markymark said...

sks,

Its best for McCain for it to look close, as the other option for him is the appearance of going down to a landslide. Whats best for Obama is another matter. He probably doesn't benefit from it looking like a runaway if it isn't quite yet. If the numbers are a bit soft and might swing back, they may be easier to swing if people feel there vote is not so crucial, but if the numbers are a bit harder, there is some evidence of voters liking to back a winner, and once the pattern is set, having a good lead brings in more voters.

LP said...

One word: truthiness.

JoshX said...

Remember that NYT reporters are notorious for "phoning it in" as John MccCain might say. There was Jayson Blair who just made up quotations and descriptions of places he'd never been when writing about former POW Jessica Lynch. Then of course, Judith Miller, who repeated the WMD claims of the admin while doing no investigative work of her own.

Look the editorials may be good, but the NYT reporting is s%#@.

kryptounderdog said...

There are too many tall buildings in the way, and the perspective is warped (a.k.a the famous Steinberg poster.)

assmole said...

Newspaper guys and math doesn't go. And Nagourney is a maverick. But hey let them tell it close -that keeps the campaigns motivated dunnit?

OTF said...

real joe,

Where is McCain while Obama is in NC? Yes, McCain took the weekend off agian like he has done throughout the campaign. Not ime to take a break when your down 7 nationally, already essentially already lost 2 states from Bush 2004(IA and NM), and need to defend 8 states your party won in 2004.

JoshX said...

trust in the ground game. It's going to make the difference between Kerry and Obama.

Lani said...

Oliver said,

"is it wrong of me to say that I like Biden better than Obama?"

Absolutely not! You are entitled to feel any way want.

I see your point of view. I did not follow the primaries. So when super Tuesday came I didn't decide on a candidate.

Didn't know much about Obama or Biden by then. But honestly, I probably would have voted for Biden if I had been more informed.

Either way, I'm glad they are on a ticket together. They make a great team.

noiateerickson said...

soccr234-

That's now how it works...Although I too would like to see Obama up more in CO right now....swings in the national polls do not mean equal swings in CLOSE state polls....There is a level of diminishing returns on battleground states.

You are basically saying that if Obama is up 6 nationally, but 2 in Colorado...when (and if) the race goes back to a tie in the national numbers..McCain would be +4 in CO...that is not true

A 6 point swing in the national polls equates to around a 2point swing in very close states like CO (putting the race there tied)...larger swings (larger than the 6 point swing in the national polls) in non-competitive states (OK, TX, etc) make up for the lesser swings in the battleground states.

So a 6 point swing, you could see CO and NV go from +2 Obama to a tie...while TX goes from +8 McCain to +16 and New York goes from +25 Obama to +16 Obama.....

Lani said...

Oliver said,

"is it wrong of me to say that I like Biden better than Obama?"

Absolutely not! You are entitled to feel any way want.

I see your point of view. I did not follow the primaries. So when super Tuesday came I didn't decide on a candidate.

Didn't know much about Obama or Biden by then. But honestly, I probably would have voted for Biden if I had been more informed.

Either way, I'm glad they are on a ticket together. They make a great team.

Real Joe said...

otf said...
real joe,

Where is McCain while Obama is in NC?


he is getting ready for the debate on tuesday

lets hope he can give a knockout punch :-)

fred said...

Knockout punch, well, maybe he will take an actual closed fist swing at Obama. That would help in truly red states!

JoshX said...

Not to change the subject, but is it true that John McCain started the Forrestal Fire?

Fact, 1)John McCain was in his cockpit on the deck of the Forrestal when the Fire happened.
2) The Forrestal Fire was caused by an errant Zuni rocket firing.
3) John McCain's plane was armed with Zuni rockets.
4) The investigation into the fire concluded after John McCain was already taken Prisoner.

Did the military cover up the fact that the son of a top admiral and current POW was responsible for the death of 134 fello U.S. service men? John McCain's history of disasterous training flights suggest an inability to properly handle the weapon he was given through nepotism. Makes one wonder. Pass it around.

fred said...

The next week of polling will be telling. Obama survived one big shot with the Palin dabate (she failed) and now he needs to dodge the townhall.

fred said...

joshx-

Nice find. Please forward to Huffington Post and DailyKOS.

OTF said...

Real joe,

So, your saying once again your boy, John McCain can't balance 2 tasks. He has shown that twice in two weeks. Another reason Obama is better than McCain he can handle and balance two taks.

Isn't townhall suppose to be McCain's strong venue? So why does he need a weekend to prepare where he can do nothing else?

assmole said...

Biden-love fest? What about the garbage he was talking about Lebanon and 'Bosniaks'- God love 'em. He's no more in touch than McCain.

fred said...

Bosniak is an actual term used for Basnian muslims.

Wa7th said...

Chi said...

I read an article which stated that some 'journalists' are simply too lazy to update their act, thus they go with some news that they had pre-written even if it doesn't make sense.

I've seen the same thing happening in RCP-linked articles. Just yesterday they linked to an article updated 10/3 with the headline "Palin Re-ignites Cultural War." I could swear I saw the same headline during their convention. Maybe it was a recycled headline pasted on a new article, but I have also seen RCP link to opinion pieces that were written so long ago that they are no longer pertinent to the current landscape.

Real Joe said...

fred said...
Knockout punch, well, maybe he will take an actual closed fist swing at Obama. That would help in truly red states!


Haha

thats funny

JoshX said...

I thought of it actually. The facts check out. Innuendo is everything. But I do wonder, it's not like the U.S. military doesn't cover stuff up.

fred said...

That is exactly the kind of stuff that gets covered up in the U.S. military. I am sure he was a target - he crashed 5 planes after all.

JoshX said...

If they say Obama "palled around with terrorists" then I can ask if McCain killed 134 americans due to gross incompetence.

esmith said...

This is great news for... JORAH MCPALIIIINNNN!!!

"Yesterday’s irony was Madeleine Albright’s famous quote that reads, in full: I think there’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help other women. No, the irony was not Sarah’s, um, accidental ”misquote” of Albright’squote (replacing the word “help” with “support,” which altered the meaning slightly, to give the impression that Abright was casting an indictment on women who don’t vote for other women).

No, the irony arose from the context in which Madeleine Albright originally made this statement. Specifically, Albright made this statement in the wake of her efforts to to have rape declared as a ‘weapon of war’,at which time she made her now-famous statement. See, Madeleine Albright was saying there must be a special place in hell for women who wouldn’t help these particular victims of rape. I shouldn’t have to point out why this is such a strange irony for a woman like Sarah Palin but, to be clear, I will.

The treatment of rape vicims is not a topic Sarah should be evoking at this time, as former Mayor of a unique Alaskan city that charged rape victims up to $1200 for rape kits used in emergency room exams used to prosecute their attackers. While this controversial law did not originate with Mayor Palin, she certainly endorsed it time every time she approved a city budget that relied on the revenue from these rape kits. And, for the record, John McCain’s voting record jibes with Wasilla’s policy.

Yeah, yeah. Sarah predicted yesterday that the evil liberal elitist media filters would do something horrible today with her Starbucks quote. What she has yet to *get* is that, when the media is critical of her, it isn’t that they are being critical of women or of Republicans or even of Sarah Palin, per se. It’s the lies, you see. It’s the lies and the ineptitude that emerge every time Sarah Palin speaks."

http://canarypapers.wordpress.com/2008/10/05/there-must-be-a-special-place-in-hell-for-a-politician-who-cant-even-steal-a-quote-off-a-starbucks-cup-without-lying/

fred said...

Huffington Post of the NYTneeds to go find the guy, or guys, that did the analysis that led to an indeterminate finding - and pin his ass down!

LT said...
This post has been removed by the author.
justin32099 said...

"Yeah, yeah. Sarah predicted yesterday that the evil liberal elitist media filters would do something horrible today with her Starbucks quote."

It's not so much the media (though they rightly will rip her on it) but I'll be interested to say if Albright herself will comment. She may stay above this (since she's working as an Obama advisor) but I think she may be obligated to comment, especially since Palin is now apparently implying that Albright herself is one of these people Palin seems to be calling out.

Zenu said...

I can't believe I haven't heard anything about Keating Five.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five

This would destroy McCain given our current situation if more people picked up/remembered this.

Shannon R said...

I know Intrade is not necessarily anything to put too much weight in to; but my admittedly rather ignorant opinion is that out of the "big ten", CO, FL, IN, MN, MO, NC, NV, NH, OH, & VA; North Carolina and Missouri are the two that RCP does not show any Intrade status at all.

I realize using Intrade as a prediction model is not the brightest idea, and I am just throwing this out there NOT to be attacked or ridiculed, but just as a crude observation that it has trended ahead of the polls: Obama's numbers started going down before the poll averages did post-GOP convention, and in reverse starting going up before Obama surged back. I know they are "fixed", but the fact there is no market at all for NC or MO was just interesting to me.

fred said...

McCain's role in the Froestal fire?

"McCain crashed 5 jets, plus was responsible for the Forrestal fire. Something made the plane behind McCain fire a rocket, which hit McCain's external center fuel tank, and caused a fire. McCain panicked, and dropped two bombs into the fire.
Surviving crewmen of the USS Forestal and those who investigated the Forrestal fire case reported that McCain deliberately 'wet-started' his A-4E Skyhawk to shake up the guy in the F-4 Phantom behind his plane.
'Wet-starts', done either deliberately (the starter motor switch allowed kerosene to pool in the engine and give a wet start) or accidentally, shoot a large flame from the tail of the aircraft.'Wet starting' was a common practice among young 'hot-dog' pilots.
In McCain's case, the 'wet-start''cooked off' and launched the M34 Zuni rocket from the rear F-4 that punctured the Skyhawk's fueltank, knocked the M-65 1000 lb bomb off it's 500 lb rated mount, and touched off the explosions and massive fire.

When the carrier Oriskany came along side, and McCain was put in a chopper and whisked away. McCain was the only Forrestal crewman to be immediately transferred .I have a hunch McCain left for his own safety, because the crew wanted blood."

fred said...

If McCain goes negative Tues, I bet the Keating 5 comes up. It sure should...earth to Barack...

don't panic said...

he probably was shot down on purpose by one of our pilots to assure everybody else's safety :o)

don't panic said...
This post has been removed by the author.
PorridgeGun said...

What about Gallup, eh? I knew the bastards would drsg Obama's national average (R2K notwithstanding) below 6%.


Time for Obama to hit Colorado again. McPoop has been there a couple of times this week.

Dave C said...

Well, the TV media has to play these states, especially the east coast states, as toss ups.

For them, they are looking at a possibly uneventful election night if Obama keeps up a big deal, especially compared to the ongoing interest the last two had into past midnight.

It is quite possible that Obama might have 270 by 10pm eastern time, if he wins the OH-PA-FL trio, plus pulling off VA and NC.

But, even if he doesn't have that, if he just has 215 in his pocket by 10pm from the east coast states, nobody expects him to not win California, which is 55 EV, so, even that basically clinches it for him (not to mention highly probable wins in Washington, Oregon and Hawaii). So, most people would say "He's got it in the bag" and go to bed (even if the networks can't say that "out loud").

justin32099 said...

Leave the Keating 5 (he wasn't really convicted of anything) or the Forrestal fire (which has no real evidence) out of this. Obama's latest ad is great:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/05/new-obama-ad-tries-to-focus-nations-attention-on-the-economy/

Hammers McCain's campaign on trying to ignore the financial crisis in the campaign. This should define McCain's stance on the economic crisis: "Make the voters forget about it."

Floyd said...

Is there a difference between definitions of a battleground state and a swing state? If Obama is standing to win Missouri and North Carolina, he is clearly winning the election... there is no battle as such. They can still be swing states even in a landslides election though.

fred said...

video shows the planes AFTER the missile has been fired, but confirms McCain's plane dropped it bombs on the deck, which exploded.

Still researching...

http://www.videosift.com/video/USS-Forestal-Fire-July-29-1967

PorridgeGun said...

Biden-love fest? What about the garbage he was talking about Lebanon and 'Bosniaks'- God love 'em. He's no more in touch than McCain.


Not so fast, Kimosabe. Biden was spot on. Here:

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/on-pbs-cokie-roberts-falsely-suggested.html




Never doubt the master!

fred said...

...and fianlly a video og the Forestal fire accusing John...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIWeq2DL_N4

michael said...

I think it is a pretty simple and relatively benign set of reasons.

1) NY Times reporters are not remotely as up on the polls as say the readers on this site. That is not stroking us, just that Nate has created a comprehensive stats-driven and transparent site. They are reporting, and may glance at an RCP or a CNN "poll of polls" or defer to Chuck Todd.

2) They want a horse race, a story and if the story 1 month out is the election is over and Obama has won, that is not much of a story.

3) The gray lady has always nervously wrung her hands and fretted at impending calamity for Dems in presidential races, and we have certainly had 3 winnable races where that was justified: Dukakis, Gore and Kerry.

The McCain camp knows it is down to its final swings, the ugliest mud and sh*t-filled attacks we will have witnessed, but now the unintended gift is giving. Clinton's ugly use of Ayers and Wright in the primaries has taken much of the sting out of it, as opposed to Kerry's being blind-sided by the swiftboat calumnies.

2 things can change this election now, otherwise it is Obama's.

A) A major terror attack on US soil
B) The Bushies "find" Bin Laden

FreeThinker said...

I guess they didn't think that NC, IN and MO were "fit to print". Maybe the quest for ad revenues is affecting the mighty NYT. That's what happens when vast sums of money are floating around loose.

RedsManRick said...

It's safer to regurgitate somebody else's tired conclusions than evaluate the information and come up with one on your own. Even the Times isn't free that reality.

Alex S. said...

Well.. some people are slow to adjust to a new situation, especially such an established organization like the NYT. I don´t think there was any bad intention.

Alan said...

The New York Times when it comes to reporting on this subject has no credibility whatsoever. You have more credibility on polling than they do.

Real Joe said...



AP Slams Palin Hard for “Racially Tinged” Remarks

“…her attack was unsubstantiated and carried a racially tinged subtext that John McCain himself may come to regret.”

“Palin’s words avoid repulsing voters with overt racism. But is there another subtext for creating the false image of a black presidential nominee ‘palling around’ with terrorists while assuring a predominantly white audience that he doesn’t see their America?”

“Whether intended or not by the McCain campaign, portraying Obama as ‘not like us’ is another potential appeal to racism. It suggests that the Hawaiian-born Christian is, at heart, un-American.”

“When the 2008 campaign is over McCain might regret appeals such as Palin’s perhaps more so if he wins.”

http://thepage.time.com/excerpts-from-ap-analysis/



OMG

David said...

Rasmussen also lists 6 states as tossups, but not New Hampshire.

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 217 Electoral College votes while McCain has the edge in states with 174 votes. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 264-185 (see Quick Campaign Overview). There are currently six states in the Toss-Up category—Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. If Obama were to win all the states that are currently leaning in his direction, he would need to win only one of those six toss-up states to become the nation’s next President."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

AlanCFA said...

Obama's team is confident...

"But his aides are convinced that he has a strong chance of winning no fewer than nine states won by George W.Bush in the closely contested 2000 election, including former Republican strongholds like North Carolina, Virginia and even Indiana, which have not voted Democrat for a generation."

Source: Telegraph UK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3089433/Barack-Obamas-top-team-believes-he-can-win-White-House-by-a-landslide.html

TinyURL version:
http://tinyurl.com/4rcsmc

anony-mom said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Pip said...

The media cashed a fat ratings check after what happened in 2000, and they cashed another in 2004. They want people to think the race is close so people will tune in or buy papers. They are in denial that this race is over because they are scared it will hurt their pocketbooks.

When the truth is the story of this election writes itself. Sell us on the optimism and hope, you did it in 1980 with Reagan, you did in 1960 with JFK and you did it in 1932 with FDR. Why is that story not good for 2008?

Heck isn't a landslide a story? A big historic story? I think it would sell papers.

Dave said...

Here's the reason Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana can't be battelground states: If those are the battlegrounds, the election is already over. If those three states become the battleground, the MSM knows they will have nothing to cover any more since the "close" election will instead be a landslide.

They are keeping those out of their lists in order to make this election seem close when it is, st this point, not.

AnnS said...

I read all this and am vastly amused at all the assumptions made.

First, the lot of you make your OWN assumptions such as "well if the polls nationally show xyz, then the Poll for (whatever state) should really be showing blah blah blah.

Second, it appears that few if any of you read the section here on 538 about evaluating the pollsters. Gallup is NOT in the same class as SurveyUSA in accuracy of results. Quit cherry-picking the data that supports your beliefs and ignoring the rest.

Further, you all blithely ignore the fact that even the most accurate poll has an error margin of 4+% so in close polls, there goes your precious 1-2 points or more. Gotta have at least a swing of 5 points for the poll to be 'probably' accurate - and then of course, you give it only as much credit as it deserves based upon the historical accuracy of the one doing the poll.

Third your own prejudices keep you all from admitting that a lot of your 'facts' are merely Hope In Disguise. For example, there seems to be an enormous desire on this board to believe that NC is going Blue. Talk about counting your chickens.

(1) It hasn't voted for a Dem in years
(2) That IS still the south and the home of Jesse Helms
(3) It has a strong orientation to the military

Each state has to be examined in terms of the prior voting behaviors, socio-economic groups and culture. Quit trying to reduce everything to "but but telephone polls show ....and the computer model says...." (That kind of stupidity is what created the current economic disaster.

Then there is the fact that after the primaries, the polling companies admitted that there is an inherent and unpredicatable distortion about support for Obama. They found that more people said they would support him than actually did. The reason for this is quite simple. Ever since he announced he was running, his devoted followers have screamed "Racist, racist, racist" at anyone who said they did not support their deity. Easier to just lie when ask about voting preferences than have to listen to that kind of abuse.


Here are my calls:

PA - D (but narrowly)
OH - R
NC - R
CO & NM - D
VA & NV can jump either way and if they do go D it will be by less than 1-2%. VA will jump before NV does.

Forget IN & Missouri. They will flirt with the Ds to send a message but go R.

BTW, I use to RUN Congressional campaigns (and did it in OH and PA)and, among other things, did the voting pattern predictions. I learned to do it without the computers and models and come up with the analysis based upon the demographics and attitudes of the area.

mc9cain said...

Wow. Ann S. thanks for sharing your smartness and everything with us. How do we deserve to even be on the same blog as you? With your unmatched brilliance it is astonishing that you would give us poor peons FREE advice. Please come here every day to educate us more.
Forever in your debt.

forty5ford said...

Hey folks... I was born / raised in rural Indiana, but now live in Denver, Colorado. I maintain close ties with numerous relatives in the northern and north-central areas of Indiana with strong Republican roots.... Lafayette up to Valparaiso over to South Bend and Fort Wayne and down to Kokomo. I recently returned from a 2-week visit there, and during that time I visited and spoke with several relatives. If what they were saying along with having witnessed unheralded numbers of Obama-Biden yard signs and bumper stickers in many communities then Indiana is unquestionably in play. Of the 25 years of my adult life there, I've never see anything close to what it is this year. It's truly encouraging for Obama-Biden. Their economy has reduced many folks to their knees; industry has been substantially decimated; it's huge for ethanol production (which McCain openly opposes); foreclosures, the national debt, foreign relations and the war are taking a heavy toll; and Palin has rapidly evolved into a controversial, polarizing figure. This year, Republicans are notably weaker in the rural areas so with a strong voter turnout in the Democratic strongholds (Indy and near Chicago) there's a growing feeling that Indiana will turn blue. It would be a first since LB Johnson did it in 1964. For nearly a month now, I've said that if the Dems manage to flip just 2 of 4 states (Florida, Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina) then it's unarguably checkmate for Obama-Biden!

Ben said...

For someone with such supposed knowledge of polling, AnnS seems confused about what a margin of error is. There is nothing magic about that number; the confidence level it is set at is purely arbitrary. Saying that a lead within the margin of error is actually a tie is ignorant. She also declares a prominent Bradley Effect without presenting any evidence and heartily whines about how mean people are. Good work on all fronts.

Ben said...

In addition: the margin of error for a given poll is certainly not the same as one gets when averaging them together and extrapolating.

AnnS said...

It MEANS, Ben S that only a fool or a deluded partisan believes polls 100%. Anyone who actualluy works with political compaignas takes them with a vary large dose of salt.

And ignoring the documented skewed poll results about Obama during the primaries is just flat incompetent. Pretty much every pollster was getting pre-election results for Obama that did not match up to the actual results for Obama - more than than the normal variation. The pollsters attributed that to the reluctance of voters to say they did not want to vote for him and be accused of racism. (And all one had to do was read the various political blogs to see the racism charges flying thick in the air from Obama supporters.) Ignoring reality does not make reality go away, it just makes one delusional.

oliver said...

Wow, AnnS, yawn. I worked for the most expensive Senate race in 2006, and yet you don't see me sharing my infinite wisdom as to How Elections Work with the hoi polloi.

People who work on campaigns are the same people who dropped out of Business Admin. classes in college, 'cause those classes were too darn tough! As your lady Palin would say.

I quit after one campaign, because it was bullshit.

Also: isn't this an awfully "elitist" argument, coming from a conservative such as yourself? AnnS says: "Listen to me; I kissed enough ass to work on X campaign." I thought only dumb people knew shit, and that smart people were stupid latte drinkers. ...According to you guys, right?

nkpolitics1279 said...

12:00am ET (AK-3) McCain-R. needs 267ev before 12:00am ET.
11:00pm ET (CA-55),(HI-4),(OR-7),(WA-11) Obama-D needs 193ev before 11:00pm ET . (ID-4),(ND-3) McCain-R needs (260ev) before 11:00pm ET.
10:00pm ET. (IA-7),Obama-D needs 186ev before 10:00pm. (MT-3),(UT-5) McCain-R needs (252ev) before 10:00pm ET.
9:00pm ET (MI-17),(MN-10),(NM-5),(NY-31),(RI-4),(WI-10)- Obama-D needs 109ev before 9:00pm ET.
(AZ-10),(KS-6),(LA-9),(NE-5),(SD-3),(TX-34),(WY-3)-McCain needs 182ev before 9:00pm ET.
8:30pm ET (AR-6)- McCain-R needs 176ev before 8:30pm ET.
8:00pm ET (CT-7)(DE-3)(DC-3)(IL-21),(ME-4)(MD-10)(MA-12),(NJ-15),(PA-21) Obama-D needs 13evs before 8:00pmET. (AL-9),(MS-6),(OK-7),(TN-11). McCain needs 143ev before 8:00pm ET.
7:30pm ET. (WV-5). McCain needs 138ev before 7:30pm ET.
7:00pm ET (VT-3)- Obama-D needs 10ev after 7:00pm ET. (GA-15)(KY-8),(SC-8)- McCain needs 107ev after 7:00pm ET.

John McCain needs to win.
IN-11
VA-13
NC-15
OH-20
FL-27
MO-11
NH-4
CO-9

Tom said...

Has it occurred to anyone else that the news media, and even some bloggers, has a vested interest in this campaign being a horse race as long as possible?

In addition to this site, I check many of the regular media sites--NY Times, CNN, Washington Times, Yahoo--and I find them much more in step with each other than they are with you. They want traffic to their websites, traffic that might dry up if the election were "called" this early.

Bottom line: the media, including the NY Times, wants the race as long as they can get it. They'll switch the battleground states around to suit themselves or do whatever else they can to fuel the idea that it's still a race.

Personally, I think this latest break for Obama will prove to be decisive. It IS the economy.

oliver said...

AnnS says... Nothing. Very little. No reply.

People who argue from experience are always retards. Cicero identifies it as a simple logical mistake. Anyone who has "experience" and who is not dumb realizes that it makes no sense to argue based on experience of something that no longer matters. Here's AnnS's argument: "Hey, I did this, and you didn't, so shut up." Yeah? So based on that, why don't we just predict the 2008 election based on the 2004 one? Let's analyze from the past, now shall we?

The reason the Republicans are losing is that they're running a circa 2004 campaign. I could explain this further, but you all know what I mean.

AnnS, I worked on the Ron Klein v. E. Clay Shaw campaign in south Florida. There was a three million dollar budget for each side. You know how we beat the thirteen-term incumbent Republican with our freshman Senator?

...We tied E. Clay Shaw to George W. Bush.

That's exactly how we'll beat McCain.

Keep paying attention; you might learn something.

k said...

Um, Real Joe, speaking as a Canadian, I hope you were joking and not serious hehe. And actually its looking like US is going for Obama, while Canada may get a majority Tory(that is right wing) gov't, so there may be an influx of Canadian liberals coming into the US hehe. The Democrats got nothing on the left wing parties of Canada hehe.

Brennan said...

The plan to steal the next election:

http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/09/spoonamore-reveals-plan-to-steal-next.html

DarcyPennell said...

Obama just made his 3rd appearance in NC in as many weeks. He seems to think the Tarheel state is in play.

AnnS::
...even the most accurate poll has an error margin of 4+% so in close polls, there goes your precious 1-2 points or more. Gotta have at least a swing of 5 points for the poll to be 'probably' accurate....

Four years ago I remember trying to convince myself that if Kerry was trailing but it was within the margin of error, then maybe he was actually tied. Even though he was trailing in every poll for weeks. But it was within the margin of error! So maybe every poll was wrong in the exact same way, every day! It could happen!

Well that's possible but not likely, and all my wishful thinking couldn't make it so.

Nick said...

North Carolina and Indiana are not toss-ups, I would agree. If Obama doesnt win Colorado, I think he loses the election.

Saving Hawaii said...

I'm definitely willing to give the media the benefit of the doubt on this one for two reasons. First is that fundamentally, Obama isn't depending on these states to win the election - the odds of North Carolina flipping without Virginia doing so as well are unlikely, and this stands true to Missouri and Indiana as well. Obama wins or loses this election based on states like Virginia, Colorado, and the other so-called "battleground states". States like North Carolina which are competitive at levels that easily would have been called "battleground" in the 2004 election are much moreso style-points for Obama, and their investment would seem to be much more a long-term investment with the hope of changing the electoral map for some time to come rather than trying to eek out a narrow margin on the electoral map this year (which these states aren't likely to do).

Saving Hawaii said...

Also, like some have said... the news media has a vested interest in keeping this a horse race as long as possible - there's a reason so many people tuned in to watch the recent VP debates.

But honestly, I don't think it's entirely dishonest sensationalism. In all fairness, by the time Obama takes NC, MO, or IN - he's already well over 270 EV. They're electorally unimportant states because deciding votes would already have been placed prior to their being won.

oct said...

The NYT is just 5 days behind the curve and they have been slow all year long with the polls. There is a slight Pro-McCain bias to defining the toss-ups that Nate points to. I bet NC, IN and MO are toss-ups by the middle of next week, that is, if the pattern holds.

charles north carolina said...

North Carolina is in many ways better demographically. Big african american population, major college campuses all over the state (Wake Forest, UNC, Duke, North Carolina State, and more) Obama campaign's ground game is superior, and knows how to GOTV. We are smashing records 600,000+ new registered democrats. Obama is gonna win North Carolina. Believe It!

Dave said...

My girlfriend and I moved to NC about six months ago from Boston. After bugging her consistently for a few months, I finally got her to register last week! We live in a small, rural community just outside The Triangle and as far as voter excitement is concerned, there are 3 to 1 more signs and stickers for Obama. And they are EVERYWHERE. Even if the majority of the rural areas vote heavily for McCain, there just might be enough rabid support from the cities and colleges to turn NC blue.

charles north carolina said...

Monday, October 6, 2008
Obama expands NC lead

Barack Obama 50
John McCain 44
Bob Barr 2

Monday, October 6, 2008
Hagan continues to hold large lead
Kay Hagan 49
Elizabeth Dole 40
Christopher Cole 5

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Election Day Registration

Election Day Registration, also known as "same-day voter registration," permits eligible citizens to register and vote on Election Day. Election Day Registration significantly increases the opportunity for all citizens to cast a vote and participate in democracy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_Registration

North Carolina

Deadline for registering to vote is Friday, October 10, 2008.

The Motherlode of All Voter Registration Information That You Need

It is bookmark time and forwarding the LINK time. All 50 States of the Union, Voter Registration Information Here.

http://thisweekwithbarackobama.blogspot.com/2008/09/all-information-you-need-to-register-to.html

Mary Ann said...

The NYT is familiar with the "Bradley effect."

egapre said...

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平平 said...

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平平 said...

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