Bernie Becker lays it all out on the line in the New York Times:
But as the sites attract more visitors, their founders are also striving to separate themselves from the competition, usually by building up their own methods but also, in a few cases, by trying to tear down the competition.
“My guess is that there’s not room for more than three or four of these sites,” said Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight .com. “The trick is making sure you’re one of the three or four.”
With bonus material from Dick Bennett of American Research Group!
Dick Bennett, at the American Research Group, was even blunter. “He hasn’t been able to predict the future,” Mr. Bennett said. “If he did, he would have been able to predict who’d win in June.”
205 comments
first!
The Ultimate Guide to Senate Coattails
Debunking the Bradley Effect, Again
RealClearPolitics.com is Run by GOP Hacks
Is The Attack on syria the October Surprise?
The 4th MN senate Debate
I don't get it - who is meant here, Nate??
"“He hasn’t been able to predict the future,” "
Congrats on the NYT coverage.
Speaking of nerds gone wild, check out these crazy controllable halloween decorations where there is a voting contest going on between Obama, McCain ... and the HULK.
It's dead even with a week to go - Obama has 15,489 votes, McCain has 15,480, and Hulk has 15,481 ... go Green Party!
Nate, does it go without saying that your site predicted an Obama victory back in June? I'm guessing from the SuperTracker that Obama held a healthy lead in your projection throughout June.
yeah Nate, why haven't you predicted the future yet? what's wrong with you?
but seriously, awesome work, you've kept this election junkie satiated ever since i came over from RCP.
Nate rules...no worries.
I have an NC datapoint to share. We hit the 1,000,000 mark in early voting late last week. I talked with some folks working the Early Voting center here in Cary, NC today and they said that turnout has grown steadily since the opening. This is different than past years where there was a peak at the beginning and ends of the period. It also corroborates my firsthand view of the line - looked to be about an hour long now where it was 20-45 minutes the first few days. Party id results for the first million indicated ~55% Dem ~30% Rep and 25% Unaffiliated so this is good news for the good guys ;-).
I heard John McCain today. He sounds like he's just throwing the kitchen sink at Obama. Some of the charges were absurd.
Nerd alerts!
Someone in the last thread said that the Bill Clinton rally isn't until midnight tomorrow. Is this true?
Georgia:
M 48
O 47
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2008/October%202008/10-28-08/Georgia_Poll102819642.php
twelfth (or somewhere around there!)
In June you had it at about +4 Obama. So you predicted something.
How dare Dick Bennett question Nate "Prognostication God" Silver?!?! Death to ARG!!
:-)
Nate and the other founders of the site are going to make a TON of well-earned money. Congrats to them. And I do see the irony that the GOP is constantly rambling about how Obama's tax plan will hurt entrepreneurs and small business. It appears entrepreneurism in America is alive and well after all!
PS anyone see the NV +10 poll? Since Vegas is basically the new LA, I predict it'll now be in the democratic column for a LONG time.
GREAT JOB! But you also need to factor in this key equation:
Palin = Nixon? (The Parallels are Eerie)
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4380
How can Obama have an 84% chanc eof winning Ohio but an 80% chance of losing Ohio and winning the election?
Dick Bennett, at the American Research Group, was even blunter. “He hasn’t been able to predict the future,” Mr. Bennett said. “If he did, he would have been able to predict who’d win in June.”
Perhaps if Dick Bennett could get his tenses to agree, he wouldn't sound quite as much like an idiot.
That Insider Advantage Georgia poll is actually bad news for Obama. He had a one-point lead in that poll a few days ago. McCain gained 2 points.
Guys, I can see Al Qaeda coming up with a tape in a few days vowing to "avenge their brothers killed in Syria and Pakistan by the Evil Empire". It shouldn't be this
easy to steal an election at the end, right? I hope the American people are not that predictably stupid.
Aw, Nate, no worries. We've got your back.
I heard John McCain today. He sounds like he's just throwing the kitchen sink at Obama. Some of the charges were absurd.
So just another day on the Robocall, huh?
Ouch! A bizzare catfight going on there. Accusations flying left right and center. Failed to predict this, bias towards that. What happens when nerds go bad? Will we see denial of service attacks on RCPs? Retaliatory Spam e-mail spreading lies? Will 538 be swiftboated?!
Great site BTW, I think RCP is too much, this layout is much clearer and frankly it's analysis more useful.
Hoo boy, fame sure does make a fellow sexy.
Good luck fending off the ladies!
And mad grats, sincerely.
Wow, what a ridiculous statement this was:
Pollster.com received more than a million page views on each of two days last week, and Mr. Blumenthal said traffic had “been rising at a linear 45-degree angle” for the last month.
Oh really. A 45-degree angle. You realize, don't you, that if you don't say anything about the scales you chose for your axes, that 45-degree angle could mean any increase whatsoever, five hundred percent or two percent? Not an encouraging reflection on your stat-nerdiness...
I need Ras polls. that's it.
iron pipes--
Pretty simple: Obama has an 84% chance of winning Ohio. However, of those times that he does not win it (1,585 out of 10,000 runs) he still wins the election 80% of the time (or 1,268 times)
Love the exposed brick, Nate!
“He hasn’t been able to predict the future,” Mr. Bennett said. “If he did, he would have been able to predict who’d win in June.”
What the hell kind of an argument is that?
By the way, this guy DID predict the outcome in June, and he's been right every time since 1984.
I think the article missed a word:
"The sites use a range of statistical sophistication. Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight.com use regression-based analyses — a method of smoothing data to account for outliers. On the other hand, RealClearPolitics.com uses a simple average of recent polls."
It should read:
On the other hand, RealClearPolitics.com uses a simple average of recent polls thatarenotpartisanwellmaybepartisanbutnotdemleaningpartisanwellmaybewecanincludethemiftheyarenottoooldorbadformccainbutthenletthemdieoutearlierwellinthatcaseletsjustcherrypick."
I heard John McCain today. He sounds like he's just throwing the kitchen sink at Obama. Some of the charges were absurd.
Today? Some?
This article is EXCELLENT news for John McCain!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/news-orgs-investigate-pos_n_138449.html
First post, long time lurker.
In a way, I'm sorry to see the NYT coverage, since for the last few weeks this site has been food for my brain and a balm to my soul. I've learned much, laughed some, and even honed my discussion skills by studying some of the regular 538.com posters' thoughts & responses.
It's a place of intelligent refuge after all the loonies elsewhere...let's hope this article doesn't bring an influx of them here....sigh.
Many thanks to you all!
I think a less confusing way to word the Ohio thing would be "80% chance of winning the election without Ohio".
Sunday: Call Obama Socialist
Monday: Call Obama Marxist
Tuesday: Call Obama Communist
Wednesday: Call Obama Fascist
Thursday: Call Obama Nazi
Friday: Call Obama Islamo-Fascist-Commie-Nazi
Saturday: Call Obama Pedophile
Sunday: Call Obama "Osama bin-Biden"
Monday; Call Obama "n****r"
Tuesday: Call Obama Mr. President-elect
Cage Match!
Two Pollsters Enter! One Pollster Leaves!
All Words Capitalized!
Blogger Concern Troll said...
That Insider Advantage Georgia poll is actually bad news for Obama. He had a one-point lead in that poll a few days ago. McCain gained 2 points.
So the race in GA has stabilized around a tie. If you'd have given me those odds a month ago, I'd have taken them, and I'll be happy with them today.
Word verification says: "croto"
Word verification, not Nate, is oracle.
"I think a less confusing way to word the Ohio thing would be "80% chance of winning the election without Ohio"."
Heh, I wasn't looking at the number of simulations.
Predicting the future?
I think he was talking about Niels Bohr. The great Dane.
[monef]
“Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday afternoon issued an order expanding the hours of early voting up to 12 hours a day through Sunday, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
“At a news conference, Crist said the right to vote is sacred and that "Many have fought and died for this right." He said he consulted a leading Democratic legislator, Rep. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, before issuing his order.
“As to the perception that more early voting helps Democrats, Crist said: "This is not a political decision. This is a people decision"
Last week, all nine Democrats in the Florida congressional delegation wrote a letter urging him to expand early voting and to order all early voting sites to be open on Sunday.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14968.html
Good for Crist. Hats off to him.
To be honest, I read the WaPo chat with both Nate and Mark Blumenthal. They seemed to basically agree on most stuff. I'm not statistically savvy, but for those of you that are, and are interested in comparing, you can read that chat here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/09/29/DI2008092902152.html
I am flattered to be one of the also rans. And I owe you thanks. :)
From what I remember...ya DID predict the future.
Why McCain Is Getting Hosed In The Press
Word verification: ficion (oh the irony)
Hey Nate,
when did you back down from your theory that RCP was slanted slightly to the right? I don't remember seeing that...
The bad weather, the voter fraud, the racists, the Bradley Effect, the unpolled masses, an inevitable Osama tape, the complacent supporters, the registered but disconnected youth (see: Gallup, the tightening polls...
...maybe being a Concern Troll isn't all that crazy.
Kinda funny-
Sam Wang says that Nate shouldn't be using polls to make a prediction.
Dick Bennett says Nate didn't make a prediction.
Looks like Bennett doesn't actually read the site.
Hasn't predicted the future? What about Nate's prediction on the Colbert Report of jetpacks in 2036?
"...maybe being a Concern Troll isn't all that crazy."
It's not crazy. It's simply a case of letting emotion get in the way of verifiable facts.
IBD/TIPP
Obama: 47.7% (+0.7%)
McCain: 43.6% (-0.5%)
Obama at his highest ever support level in this poll.
Umm, I don't trust the math of someone who says this:
"Mr. Blumenthal said traffic had 'been rising at a linear 45-degree angle' for the last month."
MS
M: 53
O: 45
No change.
Nate,
Does the return on investment index take early voting into account at all?
Considering that in Colorado and New Mexico we'll soon have seen 50% of the 2004 total voter number having voted early, does it really make that much sense in investing your last dollars there?
I think one reason for the focus on Pennsylvania is the lack of early voting. As long as people haven't voted you can change their mind.
BionicLatino said...
The bad weather, the voter fraud, the racists, the Bradley Effect, the unpolled masses, an inevitable Osama tape, the complacent supporters, the registered but disconnected youth (see: Gallup, the tightening polls...
...maybe being a Concern Troll isn't all that crazy.
I'm hoping Obama can just run out the clock.
Nate has only predicted the future in the past. This is of course no indication that he will be able to predict the future in the future. Anyone who says otherwise is just trying to predict the future, which is impossible.
Seriously this whole idea that polls don't predict the future is ludicrous. If polls had no predictive value, then nobody would care about them at all. Of course they are far from perfect predictors. But that's just all the more reason to figure out how to get as much information from them as we can, and to carefully separate what they can predict from what they can't.
Rasmussen state polls are late, guys. I'll have them up as soon as they are available.
cathy, the comments section site actually has already been ruined. It was great before Nate went all main stream media on us and brought back the nutcases.
Pretty much our only troll was the real Pete Kent a few months ago.
Go Nate! we love ya.
BTW, IDB had an article today saying the amrket is doing bad because of Obama. That gives you a sense of where their ideas are at eh?
bionic, maybe you need to lay off the caffeine some and switch the valium. you're already assuming that "the bad weather" is working against obama? a week before election day? when the forecast is actually for warm and dry weather in the eastern 2/3 of the country?
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Somehow I don't think rain in Washington and Oregon is gonna swing the election....
I am going to get teary a lot over the next week (have already several times).
One of them just now, hearing about Charlie Crist, doing the right thing. He is exactly the kind of patriot this country and his party needs right now.
Sure, it might be in part because he sees the writing on the wall and has future personal goals. But it is still very reassuring.
Thank you, Gov. Crist.
(tronog)
Nevada
Obama- 50%
McCain - 46%
Pennsylavnia
Obama- 53%
McCain - 46%
Arkansas
Obama - 54%
McCain - 44%
Nate has only predicted the future in the past. This is of course no indication that he will be able to predict the future in the future. Anyone who says otherwise is just trying to predict the future, which is impossible.
But word verification predict future always: "sceingsa"
Nate, how many monitors do you use when you work?
Im assuming Ohio will flip back to tossup, given the spate of polls with barack at +4 that have recently come out.
Still I will take that +4 on election day
God help me with my poll addiction please
Bravo, Governor Crist. You are much more respectable than your predecessor.
"Arkansas
Obama - 54%
McCain - 44%"
If only...
antmatic, I assume those AR numbers are transposed?
for those of you whose eyes are going blurry ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W10j2fL0hy0
beners
geeze, the word verification really is an oracle - be sure to size your window so you can't see the word, type your post, and then check the word .... presto!
Obama up 10 in Arkansas?
For real?
Note on the Rasmussen Pennsylvania:
The last Rasmussen poll had Obama up 54% to 41%.
The latest Rasmussen has him up 53% to 46%. That's actually a much more realistic margin than these 10 point leads we have seen. It's critical that Obama is getting 53% of the vote in almost every PA poll; McCain's support level becomes irrelevant.
From the NY Times article:
Mr. Silver has also criticized fellow aggregators, most notably accusing RealClearPolitics.com of rigging its averages to favor Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, and other Republicans this month.
He later backed away from that claim and said the two sites had a friendly rivalry and grudging respect for each other.
He backed away?
Sorry - my McCain / Obama numbers for Arkansas are reversed.
Rasmussen only shows 1% undecided/other in PA? That seems a bit extreme.
On the otherhand, 53% for Obama in PA is great in any poll, let alone Rasmussen.
antmatic was about to start a party up in here
Nevada
Obama- 50%
McCain - 46%
Pennsylavnia
Obama- 53%
McCain - 46%
Arkansas
Obama - 54%
McCain - 44%
Thanks Ant!
Pretty much as expected. Rasmussen PA polling is in line with Strategic Vision(R).
They were both at O+13 on 10/6, and are both O+7 with their latest. No worries here folks - 53% is a nice shiny number.
Being a nerd is GREAT NEWS!!! For Nate (and John McCain)!!!
Anyone have a link to these new Ras numbers?
Obama at his highest ever support level in the IBD poll is GREAT NEWS FOR PRESIDENT ELECT JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
pat there are no links yet, these are early subscriber numbers.
"Pennsylavnia
Obama- 53%
McCain - 46%"
So in other words, McCain is doing about as well in Pa as Obama is doing in Mississippi.
Man, I'm totally worried!!!!!!! lol
I think Nevada may be the most volatile state in the election. That is, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins by 8 and I won't be surprised if McCain wins by 5.
Keep it up Nate. The quality of your analysis is superb and keeps me checking back again and again.
Great work.
Pat-
I think they're only out to premium members via email at this point.
One thing I wish the article spent more time on the other reasons I think many of us visit this site.
First, the explanations of the polling is a good education into how things work. It's useful without being esoteric. Other sites aren't as good at that, in my experience.
Second, it's not just polling. The Road to 270 series is really helpful in understanding each state. And the On the Road dispatches have been hugely informative and interesting in their own right, and I have not seen anything like it out there on other sites... news articles touch upon it here and there but the series not only lets us know what's happening on the ground in each place but also celebrates the campaign workers and volunteers who make it all happen.
If it were all about projections and that's it, I'd probably favor election-projection.net, cuz I like the graphs. As it is, I spend lots of time at fivethirtyeight.com and make a quick visit to election-projection.net.
"Dick Bennett, at the American Research Group, was even blunter. “He hasn’t been able to predict the future,” Mr. Bennett said. “If he did, he would have been able to predict who’d win in June.”"
This is as clear a sign as any that ARG is not in the top tier of pollsters. Anyone who doesn't realize the different between stochastic simulation and 'prediction' shouldn't be in the statistics business.
Obama was at my Alma Mater this morning. HELL YEAH WIDENER!!
Haha. I just think it is funny he roughed in the cold, cold, cold and rainy weather in the Philadelphia area while the Phils/Rays and McCain couldn't. Love it.
Kinda like the TV Show "The Big Bang Theory"
battle of the geeky stat/pollster nerds
NATE, are you more like Leonard or Sheldon ???
Polling Update: 10/28
If Obama is anywhere close to -1 in Georgia, this election is over. No other polls are needed.
"How can Obama have an 84% chance eof winning Ohio but an 80% chance of losing Ohio and winning the election?"
If you look just to the right of the percentages, you'll see that there are only 1500 simulations. That's because what the statistic show is that Obama still wins the election 80% of the time within that 16% of the total simulations where he loses Ohio.
Nate! You look just like I imagined!
This is disgusting:
http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/28/fake.sbe.flyer.pdf
I mean, fake flyers, self-mutilation, racism, intimidation, assassination plots...anyone who tells me that this is just politics and not race has to pass whatever they're smoking.
Not fair! Nate, I think they misrepresented your feud with RCP. You claim that they have a partisan lean not because of their results or some judgment of them, but because of their party ID imbalance, right? And their lack of true transparency?
I love me some NYT, but they're trying to build the narrative of "538 is the liberal, RCP is the conservative" which I have never interpreted as your vision.
(CNN) -- Georgia must allow thousands of people whose citizenship was questioned by the state's new voter verification system to vote in the upcoming election, a panel of federal judges ruled Monday.
The court ruling means 4,500 people in Georgia will be able to vote November 4 despite being flagged.
The court ruling will affect about 4,500 people in Georgia who had been "flagged" by the new voter verification system and faced being denied a chance to vote November 4.
It could also affect more than 50,000 other registered Georgia voters also flagged by the new system because of mismatches in their personal identification information, such as discrepancies in addresses.
The three-judge panel also ordered Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel to inform all the flagged voters that they can vote.
"BTW, IDB had an article today saying the amrket is doing bad because of Obama."
That article was garbage....then again, it was written by Jack Kemp and Peter Farrara (who took money from Abramoff and is unrepentant about it). Seriously, is there anything stupider than blaming the market crash on Obama, when there's a very clear cause right in front of everyone's noses?
Yeah, to go back a bit, saying that Obama being down one in Georgia is bad news for Obama is, well, not true at all. If Obama is only down by one in GA, that's great news for him.
And of course, GREAT NEWS for Obama is GREAT NEWS!!! For JOHN MCCAIN!!!
Joe The Plumber ''A Vote For Obama is the death of Isreal''
Umm, I don't trust the math of someone who says this:
"Mr. Blumenthal said traffic had 'been rising at a linear 45-degree angle' for the last month."
Aye ... the angle is a function of the units, and linear is nothing special. He could have said "been rising steadily" rather than sounding like an idiot.
Dick Bennet's comments sound like sour grapes because his oddball ARG polls have been questioned. Maybe Sam Wang can expand on his comments. He has posted on this site in the past.
I'm glad to hear Crist is keeping the polls open longer hours. I'm always amazed when I see people having to wait in long lines. I'm a California resident and my polling station is a neighbor's garage and I've never had to wait.
I am tired of hearing of this guy. He is a complete idiot. For Real.
Well, Nate has 51 projections on the right-hand side of the page. If Dick Bennett would care to post a set of his predictions, we'll be able to compare them to actual results next week. Simple, eh?
Party id results for the first million indicated ~55% Dem ~30% Rep and 25% Unaffiliated so this is good news for the good guys ;-).
Glad to know that the NC voters are out there giving 110%!
Awesome job Nate.
Also...ARG still does polls? Really?
re: Joe The Plumber ''A Vote For Obama is the death of Isreal''
Just keep talking Samuel (Joe)! I hear more independents and swing voters making up their minds towards Obama and running away from McCain as you speak!
:)
Blogger Pat Andriola said...
I think Nevada may be the most volatile state in the election. That is, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins by 8 and I won't be surprised if McCain wins by 5.
Nevada is nothing but Clark and Washoe counties. If Obama win Clark county by a big margin all he needs is to win Washoe by a small margin and the state is his even if McCain wins 100% of the rest of the state it does not matter because 86% of the state lives in these 2 counties.
I know this is old news, but it still gives me a chuckle:
"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."
-- Gov. Sarah Palin, quoted by the New Yorker, a few weeks before she was nominated for vice president.
somebody needs to slap liquid from joe the plumbers chops
from 2 days ago:
@ South Florida Sun-Sentinel
'Gov. Charlie Crist has no plans to order longer early voting hours'
October 26, 2008
"Despite the hours-long waits at early voting sites Saturday — ranging from one hour in Coral Springs and Parkland to an estimated six hours at Miramar City Hall — Gov. Charlie Crist doesn't have plans to order longer hours.
"It seems to be running smoothly. People get there a little bit early, they provide them with water and keep them cool, and so I think it's going well," he said in Fort Lauderdale."
so Chaingang Charlie - what changed your mind ???
maybe a state full of people in BOTH parties angry as hell...
PLUS how about the SNAFU with the absentee ballots requiring extra postage due - until the USPS decided to deliver them anyway & bill the state for the msitake rather than return the envelopes for 'postage due'
welcome to FL politics where the GOPers are running the carnival sideshow...
Crist should have been the VP pick.
Florida would likely not have been in play.
Obama wins Idaho! (in student election)
Sen. Barack Obama has won an early poll in Idaho, a secured, on-line, vote among the state's high school students.
Obama won Idaho's first statewide high school mock election by 105 votes, earning 2,240 votes to Sen. John McCain's 2,135. Ralph Nader polled third followed by the other two candidates on the Idaho ballot, Bob Barr and Chuck Baldwin.
Fifty-four high schools across the state participated in this exercise on Oct. 23 and 24. The results were announced this morning. Some of the students are old enough to vote in the actual election as well.
Nate, I don't think its even a contest. This is by far the best polling data aggregation site. Unfortunately, to many folks, "a simple average of recent polls" will sound like an even-handed neutral approach to aggregation when, in fact, it is an arbitrary choice vulnerable to many biases.
The greatest thing about your method is that you are conscious, deliberate and transparent in your decisions. A truly scientific approach the art of projections. By the next election cycle, I predict others will be copying your methods, but you will have already raised the bar by improving on them.
I'd heard that Joe the Plumber was going to campaign with John McSame. I can only assume its because McSame is so full of shit he's frequently blocking the toilet and a plumber needs to be on call 24/7.
Howey- Gauge Poll Indiana
M 47
O 45
http://www.howeypolitics.com/
Seriously this whole idea that polls don't predict the future is ludicrous. If polls had no predictive value, then nobody would care about them at all. Of course they are far from perfect predictors. But that's just all the more reason to figure out how to get as much information from them as we can, and to carefully separate what they can predict from what they can't.
Sadly, polls don't predict; they measure. And, sadly, we're not even sure what they measure since I don't think we have a terribly good feel for what the electorate looks like at the moment. Sadly, that requires us to predict who will turn out to vote. Except, sadly again, our "prediction" seems to be more on the order of a guess given that our pollsters seem not to be able to come to any sort of consensus.
So, I don't think we think that polls predict the future. Rather we think that polls measure the present and we presume that in the absence of intervening events that the future will look roughly like the present.
Sadly, but truly, word verification: "sadly."
not liking that verification.
thanks Ant. more pie for you from us your poll addict friends at 538.
I am not surprised that Rass has Obama down in Nevada (1- since last poll) but still at 50. His western numbers for Obama have always been very conservative. Weird since huge numbers of people have already voted. Will be interesting to see if he predicts again that those who have not voted will go by huge numbers for McCain like he did in CO yesterday.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
This is the new McCain standard for employment: follow my every ideology and I could care less whether you are competent. Joe the Plumber would head the department of the interior.
Everyone should quit worrying about the polls in NC. That is a state we should not be relying on for 270. Virginia will tell you how the night will go.
Blowout Virgina means Obama 51-49 in North Carolina
Squeaker in Virginia equals small win for McCain.
Ohio will go for Obama. The main population center is the Cleveland area(The Democratic Machine of the State) Huge African American Population if the whole east side of Cleveland comes out and vote on the bases of its numbers and the eastern suburbs of cuyahoga county come out. It will cancel out southeastern ohio.
pay close attention to the latest rasmussen Virgina and PA polls and compare them to the previous rasmussen polls from those states. Obama leads get cut by 6 in both of them. coincidence?
Dow is up 11% today (900 points)
Why McCain Is Getting Hosed In The Press
"balanced" is NOT the same thing as "objective". Mass murderers and flesh-eating bacteria also get hosed in the press. Some things are just objectively bad.
Has McGrampa claimed Obama kicked his dog yet?
Sam Wang runs a series of probabilities as well on his site, so I'd guess his critique is of using past polling accuracy to predict future polling accuracy.
I appreciate the fact that both Sam and Nate are honest about their methods--Sam addresses outliers by saying "throw them all in together!" and theories of statistics will take care of it. That's generally reasonable, especially in polling where for every republican commissioned/biased poll, there's a democratic version as well. It's kinda the kitchen sink approach. in stats, that works.
It seems the assumption behind Nate's weighting of polling accuracy is that Sam doesn't believe all elections are polled equally...that is, a pollster's flaws in 2004 do not predict that pollster's flaws in 2006, which in turn do not predict those flaws in 2008.
That seems wrong to me as I type it (as it is easy enough to verify with past data), so I hope Sam does join us to explain his comments.
Unless his critique is of the model's assumption that races tighten at the end of the cycle, etc. I'm not convinced by that critique either (seems a relatively minor point AND actually gives me reason to prefer nate's models in general. It's generally a conservative bias--towards a tight race, as opposed to away from it).
Am I missing something?
This Joe the Plumber character is really starting to piss me off. He's an attention whore whom the McCain campaign is clearly taking advantage of.
The fact that he lied about all his circumstances was inconsequential until they shoved him into the national spotlight!Before that he could just be seen as asking a hypothetical question, and it would have been the end of it.
Now he's campaigning for McCain and calling a vote for Obama a vote for the death of Israel? What right does he have to make such claims?
This has now become utter insanity, and I'm becoming more and more angry at how low the McCain campaign will stoop in the final days of the campaign. In the words of Rachel Maddow, will somebody please talk me down?
"So, I don't think we think that polls predict the future. Rather we think that polls measure the present and we presume that in the absence of intervening events that the future will look roughly like the present."
Which is just a round about way of saying that we value polls for what they tell us, albeit imperfectly, about the future. We can get technical about word definitions and the like, but in the end polls are interesting because we take them to be related and indicative of likely future scenarios.
winteni
Andrew said...
PS anyone see the NV +10 poll? Since Vegas is basically the new LA, I predict it'll now be in the democratic column for a LONG time.
we've been blue in vegas for quite some time actually.
It's the other 98% of the state that gets all twitchy about guns and "gumm'nt interference."
The vast majority of Nevada is rural.
Like, scary banjo music rural.
in one week from today...
NO MORE "MY FRIENDS"
NO MORE "MAVERICK"
NO MORE "YOU BETCHA"
NO MORE "JOE THE PLUMBER"
It just came to me how excited I am just to finally end this stupid ass mccain campaign.
KITTLES
Mac couldn't realisticaly choose Charlie Crist as Charlie has a....um...skeleton in his 'closet' that would have been more problematic when it 'came out' than all the Palin disclosures
Charlie would certainly get the Larry Craig wing of the GOPer vote though...
my word is 'shelegi'
sounds kinda irish to me...
Wait, when did you ever say that RCP wasn't cherrypicking? I never remember you backtracking.
Jeff NYC
Nothing the McCain campaign could do would please me more than push Joe the Plumber.
Talked down yet?
@rory - "am I missing something?"
Yes... a link to Sam Wang's site
word: Poker -- Poker? I hardly know her... *groan*
I know the rumors. Doesn't mean Crist shouldn't be the VP nominee.
The McCain campaign thought they had a lot of states in the bag at the beginning. This is a great article.
What Political Malpractice Looks Like
Huh uh, you said wang. then you said poker.
-Beavis
This is disgusting:
Welcome to the Republicanism. We've seen these flyers in every election.
I mean, fake flyers, self-mutilation, racism, intimidation, assassination plots...anyone who tells me that this is just politics and not race has to pass whatever they're smoking.
The fake flyers are aimed at blacks because they so overwhelmingly vote Democratic; it's not about the race of the candidate (not to say that other elements aren't).
Jeff -- read the One Week speech over and over and over.
"bectera"
The bectera that infected the McCain campaign came from Alaska.
Today the Obama campaign sent me an email asking for money of course but making note of the fact that I have been with them since the beginning, that I was one of the first supporters. It makes me feel good though. I feel that despite Nate's high number of hits each day like Obama's campaign he knows that I have been here since the beginning and support him a thousand percent. NYT has no idea how devoted Obama/ Silver fan's are. This is a movement.
pallays
So how does McCain try and show his partisanship to the American people?
a) Associating with a fraudulent obvious GOP hack type 'member of the public' who has a talent for spewing GOP talking points?
or
b) Using an early supporter of his, who happens to be an intelligent moderate GOPer prepared to listen to reason?
Most would pick b. McCain picks A.
According to my word [suest] i am the most sue, who would have guessed?
DCM,
Nate, at least from his TV appearances sort of does remind me of Leonard.
sfergus483 - I agree that Joe the Plumber only makes the campaign look dumber in the eyes of most Americans.
I really feel the Republicans want to deligitimize Obama as much as possible, and I don't think it will stop at election day. This is how they operate. Power at all costs, its sickening, and I guess this Joe the Plumber making incendiary statements just makes it more unpalatable.
No baseball game tonight.
That means - if is played, and assuming no extra innings - it should be over early tomorrow night (10:30/11 EDT at latest) - so the Florida rally might end up being set earlier.
Other news - Ted Kennedy returning to DC at least through the election.
Polls out this evening:
ABCWashingtonPost National: 5 PM
LA Times / Bloomberg Ohio/Florida and Maybe National: 5 PM
Any others?
@cher
I find it almost awe inspiring how targetted the Obama campaign e-mails are. And, it should make you feel good!
"balanced" is NOT the same thing as "objective"
Really?
Well no shit but thanks for clearing that up.
Hats off to Charlie Crist. I have to admit I haven't paid him any attention because of a recent feeling of "all Republicans are corrupt". Next time he's up for election, I'll remember this and have to take a close look at his policies before making any kind of decision. You know, the way voters are supposed to do it.
Also, since Nate has such a hard time predicting the future, I'll give it a shot by predicting the next thread: some idiot wastes everyone's time by saying "first".
Kittles,
That's not a problem for many Dems. But you're talking about the Republican ticket. Big difference.
Troy
I think the McCain camp is now running on pure fumes--their latest they are attacking the LA Times about a tape of a faculty party at U of C for that 'known terrorist' (actually he isn't but they will portray him this way) Rashid Khalidi. Khalidi is a well known academic who has not been enthusiastic, let's say, in condemning palestinian attacks against israelis. When he left Chicago for that center of radicalism Columbia U, there was a party that Obama apparently attended. LAT wrote about it 7 months ago. Now the campaign is requiring the LAT give them the tape to prove Obama is a terrorist sympathizer. Just incredible.
word--ratio! how about that.
well, Charlie is a good politician in that he stands for 'nothing' since he is a hollow reflective shell that blows with the prevailing winds in most issues
adamantly opposed to offshore FL drilling - until it suits him anyway
adamantly against extending voting hours as recently as Sunday - until it suits him today
[ps - nothing changed except his own approval #'s]
says he is too busy to campaign anymore for Mac & Sarah [because of the bad FL economy] - until he decided this weekend that he does have time when the polls appear to tighten a bit here in FL
that's ol' Charlie for ya
Nate's first appearance on Countdown was super awkward. I'm glad hes gotten more comfortable with being in the spotlight.
I would love to see a major network take the numbers to the next level. Nate can be Chuck Todd on steroids.
"Mr. Blumenthal said traffic had 'been rising at a linear 45-degree angle' for the last month."
He's gaining exactly one viewer per day?
Antmatic: "Sorry, my McCain..." is what your post looked like to me at first; is that the new phrase for "Sorry, my bad"?
hoolog!
dcm
I forget your approximate age range. Were you in FL as a young adult/adult when Lawton Chiles was Gov.?
I must have missed something. What is all this about Crist today??
Does anyone really care about Joe the Plumber?
Word verification: "elygo"
joe prime,
crist extended early voting hours in Florida so that lines arent so long and everyone has the opportunity to vote.
Crist ordered that voting hours in florida be extended to 12 from 8
I'd love for an out Republican to run for high office. I am not sure that Crist is gay, but just once I would like someone in the GOP to stand up and help it confront its demons.
Excellent. But I have to ask, why the turn-around? Does he know something we don't?
Antmatci - there was a Kos rumor this morning that we would have new SUSA polls from Ohio, NC and FL today, all showing Obama ahead. We've seen Ohio. The other two still to come, I assume (if the rumor is legit).
I dunno...If you guys think THIS site has a troll problem, then you haven't been out much, have you? ;-)
I'm with Concern Troll, I'm hoping Obama can run out the clock....
BTW, y'all should catch John Oliver's piece on The Daily Show last night; brilliant!
JOHN
don't fall for the hypocritical executive order by Charlie Crist today to belatedly extend voting hours
he had no political choice - and should have done it last week when it was clear that early voting was a disaster which he had helped create by severely hobbling the voting hours & dates a few years ago as part of the GOPer machine voter suppression efforts
Charlie should pay the price at the polls in his next election - he screwed the pooch by waiting until this late date AFTER millions have had to stand in long lines for the past 1 1/2 weeks
RE: Informing flagged voters that they can vote in Georgia.
Well, considering that the Secretary of State's office sent out the letters telling people they were flagged ON THE DEADLINE FOR THEM TO RESPOND, I don't have a lot of faith that they will inform people in a timely fashion that yes, they can in fact vote. Hopefully they will learn it from the news coverage.
The Republican administration in this state needs to go away, as soon as possible. Y'all think the Republicans have screwed the rest of the country up, you have no idea. Incompetence, stupidity, and greed have run this state into the ground.
MARKY
I agree, Nate is very much like Leonard on 'The Big Bang Theory" - except does Nate have a hot girl neighbor that like him like that ???
@markymark
Then keep you eye on Bobby Jindahl. He's not gay, he's very socially conservative, but he's also not well, whitey.
Disclaimer - I don't live in LA, but I've read a lot about him. I think he and I are about 180 on any given issue.
This guy had his ducks in a row for Gustav (good for him!). He's had some issues as Gov., but he seems to be basically the hard right winger they look for, in terms of ideology.
But then you have the skin thing. It's not the same as being Gay, but it's one of many issues the GOP needs to overcome.
"Does anyone really care about Joe the Plumber?"
Well, he apparently cares about himself - enough to consider a run for Congress.
re: FL early voting disaster
'Crist extends early voting to 12 hours daily, starting now'
@ http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/state/epaper/2008/10/28/1028earlyvoting.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=0
BUT on Sunday, ol' Charlie said categorically 'NO'...
fwiw
"Howey- Gauge Poll Indiana
M 47
O 45"
OK, I've looked at the crosstabs on this poll and can safely say that the poll had a decent sample, except for one major glaring error:
They undersampled Democrats and minorities in the biggest city in the state, Indianapolis, and 44% of those polled came from Indy.
I deducted that not one minority voter was polled within the Indianapolis area.
Obama's lead is only 46-44 in a city where three recent polls from outside the state show him at 55-35 on average up against McCain in Indianapolis with higher overall samples.
The margin of error was 4.1 either way. I'd put it at 5 either way with the undersampling of minorities within the largest metropolitan areas.
Also, 11.4% more voters are on the roll in Indiana compared to 2004. None of these voters were measured.
Aunt Karen,
He has an exorcism histroy that might scare some people away from him on the national level.
I might vomit if Jindal gets onto the national scene. As a fellow Indian-American, everything he stands for is pretty shit.
But oh well.
And Joe (jesus, is EVERYONE in this country named Joe?) Crist doesn't know anything, he HAD to extend hours, it's been a giant mess in Florida with early voting.
Tipping the Scales -- Up to 10,000 Registrations Deemed Incomplete in Colorado
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/martin-markovits/tipping-the-scales----up_b_138508.html
What's the bet they were all DEMOCRATS? Colorado's [Republican]Secretary of State Mike Coffman is currupt little prick.
Colorado is going to McCain.
AUNTIE
nope, I lived in SoCal back in those Chiles days
wasn't he the one who walked the entire state to win an election ?
For the hell of it:
My prediction, a week out from Election Day, which I will probably change many times before Monday night.
Obama wins all the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes), plus, in descending order of margin of victory, Virginia (13 EV), Colorado (9), Ohio (20), Nevada (5), Florida (27), North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), Indiana (11), North Dakota (3) and Georgia (15). He comes close, but short, in Montana (3), Arizona (9), and West Virginia (5). States like Mississippi (6), South Carolina (8), and Arkansas (6) are closer than people are currently projecting, but McCain holds on to. The biggest surprise is Texas (34), which Obama only loses by single digits. Obama wins the popular vote roughly 53-45 with a 393-145 EV win. That would be the second biggest win, in both counts, for a non-incumbent President since FDR in 1932 after Ronald Reagan in 1980.
And the Democrats pick up 7 Senate seats, which results in 58 plus the 2 Dem-leaning independents for 60 overall.
I'd love for an out Republican to run for high office.
I'm represented by a lesbian!
I didn't know that about exorcism - wow, that's pretty big.
However, there must be reasonable minority, gay or otherwise out of the main stream candidates that are far right GOP and that can advance. I fear the party is going to tear itself so badly that only the right survives. I fear that because I want someone intelligent on the other side. That's why I dislike Sarah Palin. If she had a brain in her head, she'd be OK by me, even though I disagree with her on everything. (And, as a side note on that, I hope she does make a run in 2012, because I'm going to love hearing her in Republican debates.)
I am not in the business of finding these people for the other side, but they have to be out there.
Joe the Douchebag talking out of his ass is EXCELLENT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
porridgegun,
ill bet you $$ on colorado going blue this year.
"The secretary is encouraging everyone to show up if they aren't registered and they didn't get this incomplete status corrected, they can still [cast] a provisional ballot. I know there are some myths that the provisional ballots are not counted. That is just not the case...the traditional ballots are verified...and then counted."
Notice that he said that you can vote with a provisional ballot, but "traditional" ballets will be counted.
I've seen third world countries conduct more transparent elections.
anyone heard about the la times tape?
politico is talking about it. thats not the oct surprise is it? sounds like more ranting from the mccain people.
Nice work here. I found your site after you were on Colbert Report (a newbie, then), and now you're one of the two.
On even minutes, I am on RCP.
On even minutes, I am here.
That's 720 pageviews a day, just from me.
I promise to click an ad on minutes divisible by 31 :-)
Not with a Republican cocksucker as Secretary of State.
livemild--I just posted about it upthread. This is a faculty cocktail party for god's sake it is nothing. They have nothing and want to make a huge deal about an academic whose biggest contribution to the world is that he is a suave good looking professor from the middle east who supports the palestinians. Just incredible.
Hey, porridgegun, choose your slang more carefully!
How many examples of GOP-driven Democratic voter suppression have we run across now? 10? 15? It's utterly disgraceful. Thank you, Charlie Crist.
Is this Mike Coffman thing in Colorado looking like the first 'big' Repub systematic voter suppression that's actually going to stick, or have I missed others?
RCP average back up to O+7.0 in the national polls
that is a nice comfortable margin with 7 days to go...
Another VA poll (from Roanoke College) with a substantial Obama lead...
O: 48
M: 39
VA Poll
@dcm
Yes, he was. Walkin' Lawton. Walked the entire state. He was a Florida state rep., then a Florida state senator.
When he ran for US Senator (obviously before he was Gov.), he walked the entire state, to meet people, hear their concerns and problems.
He never lost an election.
I called this last week the moment I was informed Mike Coffman was in charge of voting in Colorado.
luv the latest Biden sound bite on Mac
he knows that Halloween is coming soon, but that agent of change costume just doesn't fit John Mccain...
paraphrased, but a great grab for the news as a sound bite - creative writing 101 delivered here in central FL today
word is 'wrickbot'
Coffman is also running for Congress, so why he is allowed to do this voter purging, without it being a conflict of interest, is beyond me.
There's more:
http://colorado.mediamatters.org/items/200712220001
"Summary: Reporting December 21 on Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman's ties to a consulting firm that had represented the manufacturer of the only electronic voting machines Coffman has certified for use in the 2008 elections, the Rocky Mountain News failed to mention that the firm's president donated $500 to Coffman's 2006 campaign."
"And the Democrats pick up 7 Senate seats, which results in 58 plus the 2 Dem-leaning independents for 60 overall."
You forgot the two Maine Republicans who will soon resort back to their pre-1994 roles as Republicans in Name Only.
Collins and Snowe are 62.
joe the plumber was the october surprise.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/martin-markovits/tipping-the-scales----up_b_138508.html
Absolutely sickening.
(word: nosack)
Micholas Warino and others out there:
Remember, McGovern ONLY WON MASSACHUSETTS. That was the biggest landslide of all time.
And that was too bad, because McGovern ran the same kind of campaign (except for the organization) that Obama is running. But i tell you, it was worth the 40 year wait!
cher said...
"Today the Obama campaign sent me an email asking for money of course but making note of the fact that I have been with them since the beginning, that I was one of the first supporters. It makes me feel good though. I feel that despite Nate's high number of hits each day like Obama's campaign he knows that I have been here since the beginning and support him a thousand percent. NYT has no idea how devoted Obama/ Silver fan's are. This is a movement."
I felt the same way, Cher, when I received my email. I remember we were pushing so hard to reach 300,000 donors. LOL I learned about Nate's site on an Obama blog and have been here since.
The lawyers will swoop quickly on the CO SoS. He'd better look out and prepare to pay the County Clerks and their staffs overtime.
Mac needed BOTH Bush's to openly endorse Obama IMHO [and OBL too]
then he would be able to claim his maverick mantle as the ultimate outsider
Jeff NYC Dem said...
Aunt Karen,
He has an exorcism histroy that might scare some people away from him on the national level.
Explain further please about the exorcism?
*conen*
Its funny that some pollsters are critical of aggregating sites like these. Anyone with a little clue about statistics can figure out that no single poll out there has any much meaning when taken individually---with the possible exception of deep red or blue state polls.
Look at the Gallup headline today: "Presidential race narrows slightly". A simple simulation would show that the data of Gallup for the entire month of October can be equally explained by a steady Obama lead of about 6% or by a weekly fluctuating lead in the range of 4 to 8%. Only when combined with a dozen other polls does it have enough statistical accuracy to say anything interesting.
A tightening from, say, 5% margin to 3% over a period of a few days will take a week or more of polling to show up clearly in a tracking poll of Gallup's kind (daily sample size of 1000, 3-day averaged).
Poll aggregators and modelers rule!
Cronkite/Eight Poll AZ
M: 46
O: 44
McCain Could Lose Arizona
A new Cronkite/Eight Poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%.
Said poll director Bruce Merrill: "Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."
These results are similar to two polls released yesterday that also showed a tight race in McCain's home state.
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