Yes, I'm enjoying my 15 minutes...
With Dan Rather, back when it looked like the Mets might still make the playoffs:
And my appearance on Countdown last night follows below the fold.
10.01.2008
Nate with Dan Rather, and Keith Olbermann
@ 2:49 PM
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702 comments
Congrats, Nate! You are up to great things as your reputation for great analysis is growing.
NATE
now that you are becoming a media darling - PLEASE get a camera coach & work on your audio/video communication 'skills'.
develop those talents along with your stellar analytical prowess.
go get 'em, but get ready NOW for primetime on election eve !!!
Enjoy your moment Nate. You deserve it!
I am addicted to this site! You are hot! Good to see you on the teevee!
I imagined an older person..Nate's a looker..
Take THAT Dr. Wang!
Good stuff. Off topic or rather back on topic did you see the latest from MCain
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/mccain-i-routinely-turn-t_n_130873.html
He would turn to Palin for Foreign Policy advice but not Biden or Obama - seriously??
Does he think that if he acts crazy enough people might have some sort of "shit this guy is so crazy he's just what we need to shake things up" moment and vote for him??
Don't sell yourself short, Nate. I have a feeling your 'fifteen minutes' will stretch into overtime. If you want to write a book about this election, I'd be glad to work with you on that. And not to kiss your ass or anything, you come across great - ie authentic - on television. So you're not Anderson Cooper, who cares?! Someone's already got that job!
RichMerritt.com
I am very happy to hear that you will be doing election night coverage, Nate, and that simplifies my decision for what to watch that evening. I'm assuming that Sean will be manning the site on that evening. It would be a shame not to have lots of posts and commentary here on election night.
NATE
watching you live with Keith last night these were my thoughts.
- congrats on being there BUT
- eyedrops are a must
- if the studio lights bother you, then have them adjusted BEFORE the segment starts [or take precautions]
- where was the onscreen promo for 538 ??? good god man - insist on a 538 backdrop or bring your own to the studio or remote site - wear a button or site T-shirt or...
- show the world your site logo in EVERY shot we should see "538.com - Electroal Projections Done Right"
- get a signature gimmick. no bowtie, but SOMETHING that ID's you.
- wear 'studious' serious glasses perhaps to cut down the glare of the lights [like many talking heads do] or fun ones or something like SJR since you look so 'young'
- develop a signature line or gesture that signs you ON to start & OFF to end a piece
- ANIMATION is important & is more than blinking, eyes widening or lips moving. USE YOUR HANDS, arch an eyebrow for emphasis [watch Keith], curl a lip, resist the lizard tongue if possible, laugh, squint, etc.
- IMPORTANT - since you are establishing your bonafides - hold papers in your hands, have graphics & charts around you for refernce [besides the ones the camera shows], and let people see that your work IS work based on hard data, factual info, and real statistical analysis as opposed to making the stuff up to serve an agenda.
- remember, the vast majority of people have not a clue what statistical analysis is, and they are highly skepitical of those elite 'polls' that never ask them for their views but rely upon only 500 people somewhere to represent them - sell the concept & science too
- you need a nice handle like Nate the _____ or Nate 538 or something snappy & memorable [marketing 101]
- maybe wear a BB jersey rather than an open shirt ? no BB cap please since Michael Moore has that gimmick... then you get a nice cross-marketing tie-in
- NEVER ever admit on the air that your site is aligned with RR please or your cred will be shredded IMHO
Wow, Nate, Dan Rather is using you to market CBS election coverage. You are a media star! I didn't realize you were a fellow transplanted Michigander. Go Blue!
With only a month to go in the campaigns, I was wondering, Nate, Who've you got in the Super Bowl?
Your mother is enjoying it even more, Nate.
Pollster up to 250 EV for Obama, safe or leaning.
http://www.pollster.com/
Great to see you on Countdown!! I happened to be on this page and thought...hmm...that name sounds familiar...ooops..yeah...it does.
Great work...
Thank you!
Nate
you should get your own show
Real Joe and Nate need a show, the real polls versus the fake polls.
congratulation Nate.
if you cover the election night i'll follow,but please don't speak so fast,too much for my poor english, and too much anyway.
aloha.
Let me add my voice of appreciation and admiration to the job you are doing. Well done!
I will anxiously watch election night to see if you are within the 1%!
Brian
NATE
forgot to advice you to get attached to an up & coming show like Rachel Maddow's.
you could be marketed as a rising star on her new program [which has close ties to Keith] & I bet you would work great with her. get even more face time & less formal plus a nice progressive bent ?
it's all good !
brad
i don't do fake polls
any new polls ?
"Wow, Nate, Dan Rather is using you to market CBS election coverage. You are a media star! I didn't realize you were a fellow transplanted Michigander. Go Blue!"
A couple of problems here. First, Dan Rather doesn't work for CBS anymore, he works for HDNet. Second, Nate is from Michigan, but there is no evidence that he is a U of M guy. He grew up in East Lansing and is therefore more likely to be an MSU fan. He attended the University of Chicago, and I have seen no evidence of him being partial to any particular collegiate team.
Dude!
You're looking and sounding good!
I doubt you will be a 15 minute flash in the pan. I know I will always be looking for your talent, skills, abilities and NUMBERS!
You rock!
NATE --
If you're going to do US political TV you need to buy a bow tie and learn to shout more.
You have very nice lips, nate! :)
Nice work!
Everybody has a 'stop and think' pause phrase. Yours appears to be "y'know" :)
Wow, the Dan Rather interview was amazing! I can´t see how anyone who watched this could NOT be interested in checking out this site. Congratulations on your election night coverage, too.
Please don´t become one of those streamlined pundits, stay as down-to-earth as you are now. It makes you unique.
Even the repubs are starting to pour hate on John McCain, when your team turns on you, tis a problem:
"So, 35 days left and McCain is in Iowa? Why put McCain in the wrong state, at the wrong place? No surprise the result is the wrong message and the wrong tone." - Mike Murphy
it's well earned Nate, well earned.
So proud of you Nate. You did a great job on the Dan Rather interview. Glad you'll be reporting on election night.
See you then.
ohhh election night covreage! Hoew exciting! And in HD as well!
Yeah, you need a better signoff when you're interviewed.
Something like:
"Hi-ho Silver... Away!"
Snff - Good bye Shea my old friend, you will be missed.
RR released a new TX Senate poll -
Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn now leads challenger Rick Noriega just 50% to 43% in Texas
gaps closing even in red TX - expect to see Obama closer than this later today when RR will probably release that poll...
60 DEM Senate seats may be coming if the tidal wave trend continues... doubtful that TX will flip - but you never know.
Any incumbent that is still not over 50% in October is potentially vunerable... same goes in GA where that race is narrowing.
Hurricane IKE may have more hidden unidentified consequences than the MSM is aware of yet.
TX folk are MAD at the GOP, same goes for GA & NC with the gas shortages. Here in FL the runup in gas prices is taking a toll on the GOP & I believe part of the explanation for the new Obama +8 #'s this week.
I just returned from SoCal where gas is cheaper & easier to get than in FL & the SE. there is Hell to be paid for rising gas & shortages...
Looks like America isn't as stupid as McCain thought...I've talked to many seniors who say Palin was an irresponsible choice, and now they're considering not voting for him (they were in the tank for him before).
Nate, if you just call the election for Obama now I wil believe you. Lets just do it. Great work.
Texas is an interesting state. Possibly one of the most GOP states, but there are signd of a new renaissance for the Dems there, what with Chet Edwards higher profile this year, Rick Noriega running well apparently this year. If KBH does run for Governor, as expected, then there is certainly the possibility of a Democratic Senator from Texas in the not toooo distant future.
i need new polls
where the fu** are they ?
DCM, you are just too funny!
Ras says Wicker is leading Musgrove by just 2 points in MS Senate race as well. GOP have to be running scared.
You should slam RCP on TV next time for their blatant selective polling they display.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
AMAZING! RCP now projects an Obama landslide! (348-190)
TX loves Cornyn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt05KC3Add8
RCP is a liberal hack
"RCP is a liberal hack"
lmao...sure they are, sure they are ;)
EUKLID
[blink, blink, lick my lips...]
Thank you. Glad to be here to entertain you today [gulp]...
But speaking of RCP, why do they have NJ (Obama +8.6) and PA (Obama + 7.7) as Leaning dem, when Maine is solid dem when it's Obama +7.6?
Hm... tidal wave in the senate? I would guess that there are more people who simply vote by party, because their senator has less name recognition than the presidential candidates. So maybe Bush´s record disapproval ratings have a bigger impact on the senate and house races than the presidential races. If George Bush stays as unpopular as he is right now, we will see one of the biggest anti-incumbent elections ever - with about 62-63 democratic senate seats. Too bad that the Obama campaign pulled out their staffers from Mississippi (a long time ago) and Texas (about 3 weeks ago). Turnout will be a key factor.
Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn now leads challenger Rick Noriega just 50% to 43% in Texas
STOP CORNYN.
That is all.
TX loves Cornyn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt05KC3Add8
TX IS PROUD & RED !
How does RCP have Mn and Wi as "toss ups"? McCain has never led in any of the polls in those two states.
Great interview! I'm definitely watching CBS on election night if I get a chance. I know there will be some election night parties around town, but I don't know if I'm going to be up for that--too nerve-wracking, and what a bummer it would be of a party if my candidate doesn't win!
Hey, but maybe that's another sport analogy: perhaps it's better with a crowd, to share the pain of your team losing...
BIG BAD JOHN
:-)
Great work, Nate. You deserve it.
Hey Nate... I share some of the sentiment here. It was fantastic to see you last night on TV. I've followed you for a few years now on BP, and it's refreshing that someone shares my love of sabermetrics and politcal numbers.
That said, please smile more.
Nate hanging around with Keith Olbermann and Dan Rather. I'm shocked! Glad to see he's making inroads with the mainstream media outlets who are polar opposites of his bent-left ideology....oh wait.
GOOD GOD NATE, you're getting more media coverage than Paris Hilton these days...
So, a few questions:
1) WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO HAVE A Q&A WITH YOUR FANS!!!! Sure, if your name is Rather or Olbermann you get Nate time, but what about the rest of us loyalists? :D
2) At minute 4:04 -- I saw you pull a McCain tongue thingy (see Sean's post earlier today). What gives. What've you pulled over on us?
2) Got many marriage proposals yet?
"How does RCP have Mn and Wi as "toss ups"?"
As far as I know, the average has to be at least 5.0 for them to be in the "leaning category", I don't know what constitutes the "solid" category, since they're being kinda inconsistent with it.
Well done, Nate.
Seriously good work - hope you are being adequately rewarded.
Over on my blog I have a snapshot comparison of your EV map and the map Dick Morris put out a couple of days ago.
I'm not sure what Morris is on these days... http://peterwelcheastern.blogspot.com/2008/10/porn-pure-porn.html
I think I have figured out why McCain was in Iowa yesterday. First I couldn´t understand why he was in a state he has no chance to win, and talked to a newspaper that won´t endorse him and managed to annoy everyone around him....
but now I get it: John McCain is on his big "fuck you-tour". He is going to visit every state he won´t win and just grumbles to the press and insults everybody he meets. It all makes sense now.
beth
join the local mccain victory party
we party hard :-)
Nice job on both Nate! I agree though, looks like you are getting some recognition, time for a new wardrobe, and say YES when they ask if you want TV makeup. :)
alex s. said...
I think I have figured out why McCain was in Iowa yesterday. First I couldn´t understand why he was in a state he has no chance to win, and talked to a newspaper that won´t endorse him and managed to annoy everyone around him....
but now I get it: John McCain is on his big "fuck you-tour". He is going to visit every state he won´t win and just grumbles to the press and insults everybody he meets. It all makes sense now.
McCain Campaign ~ Best Campaign Ever ~
Nate,
Like other liberals, enjoy your moment for a while. As Bush and Co. has ruined the name of conservatives for quite some time, I expect liberals will call the shots for at least the next few years.
But rest assured that you and all the others will be exposed as hate-mongering hacks before too long as well, and the liberal image will be tarnished and tattered once again.
I keep stressing it, but no one listens...centrism, moderation, and independence...
NOT partisanship, ideology, and divisiveness.
Morris is weird. I remember the first map I linked here, that showed Hawaii only leaning dem, and tons of other weird stuff. It seems that he has moved into the opposite direction and now even shows Louisiana and Arkansas leaning blue. That´s something between overcompensation and old-fashioned mindset. Maybe he thinks it´s 1996 all over again... (but first he thought it was 2004 again)
mule rider said...
Nate hanging around with Keith Olbermann and Dan Rather. I'm shocked! Glad to see he's making inroads with the mainstream media outlets who are polar opposites of his bent-left ideology....oh wait.
hail mule rider ^_^
one of the most smartest people here
I just checked your site out last night as I watched you Nate. Outstanding job and can say I'm already a fan.
Your site is wonderful, informative and very well done.
Good job and good luck. I look forward to seeing you more
ALEX S
I sorta agree about the DEM Senate prospects. Wicker & Chambliss & Dole & Coleman & Sununu will all be swept out along with the rest if the tide continues to rise across the country.
I believe that nate's senate projections are still behind the curve at the moment.
But 62 is a dream IMHO. I will take 59 Dem + 1 IND [VT] and heartily dump Lieberman to the GOP caucus where there will be plenty of vacant space...
They should dump Joe on November 5th...
any new polls ?
A hard earned and well deserved 15 minutes! Good for you both!
My wife and I just got back from early voting in Warren County Ohio. I was surprised we had to wait in line. There were many people there.
2 more votes in the bag for Obama
My God, Real Joe!
You're like the guy in the Yahoo Chat Room who keeps typing "ASL?" every thirty seconds.
Loved the interview, and glad to see smart analysis starting to get more attention. Go Maroons! (Btw i noticed how you said you got your BA in Econ... tsk tsk, remember it's A.B.!)
I don't think many people realize that you are in fact creating an entire new model for prediction. Unlike PECOTA which had its own name, you haven't really named your election model system yet.
When are you going to name it?
I think it is unfortunate that Dan Rather labeled you as a "pundit", i think you are anything but. Pundits to me are people who pick data to support their own positions, while so far, i have seen a more academic side in which you have a positions based on the data.
Good luck, and you do us UofCers proud!
Thanks for posting the video. I hadn't seen the Rather interview.
Re:Cornyn. He has plenty of money to run ads and his ads now are all about how we need change in Washington. This after he has done nothing but be a suck up to Bush. Noriega doesn't have the money to compete. Cornyn has a large war chest.
But it is nice to see Noriega doing as well as he is in the polls.
Nate, by all means enjoy it, but I gotta tell you, you are going to be around for much much longer than 15 minutes. :) You add a calm, intelligent voice to the normal chatter, and it, like this site, is incredibly refreshing.
Of course, I could be biased by the fact that all the number favor Obama right now, which makes me love coming to 538...but I suspect that even folks on the other side look to your analysis for insight as to what's happening at a granular level.
Congrats! I'm psyched to watch you on HDnet on election night!
Great work, Nate!
Nate: Saw you last night on Olbermann and thought I would use this as an opportunity to say great job!
Great job Nate, I've been on camera a couple times for much smaller potatoes and I think you did a great job. Very little uhs or ums, clear and interesting, which is a lot harder than it seems. :-)
rob said...
My wife and I just got back from early voting in Warren County Ohio. I was surprised we had to wait in line. There were many people there.
2 more votes in the bag for Obama
nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo......
CNN/Time polls:
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47
Minnesota: Obama 54, McCain 43
Missouri: Obama 49, McCain 48
Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 47
Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44
More good news for Obama.
rob:
some early reports said that there was no lines in OH
weird !
Rob-
Congrats on the first Obama vote posted on 538! Any feel for who was voting early? The turnout effort?
fantastic!
I don't know about the "media coaching" or fake glasses people want you to consider, but perhaps you should sit up straight? (and no, I'm not a mom)
You do great work, you should look like you are proud of it. You look a little like you are trying to disappear.
Just sayin' . . .
P.S. I think you sound fine - concise, smart - I just want you to own your space.
BOOM!
Those CNN polls give me a hard on!
Justin:
That's good news for BHO, indeed.
Almost as large a lead in VA as in MN. Whodathukit?
justin32099 said...
CNN/Time polls:
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47
Minnesota: Obama 54, McCain 43
Missouri: Obama 49, McCain 48
Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 47
Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44
More good news for Obama.
nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.......
:-(
WTF is going on :-(
MO is tied ! WTF ?
Fair play to Rather and HDNet (and I assume Mark Cuban) for nabbing you on election night, Nate.
I'd also like Charlie Rose to get you, Chuck Todd and possibly even John 'magic map' King in that darkened interview room for a post-election debrief from the numbers wonk side.
Going to spill on how you'd like an 'Election Night, Done Right' to work?
Morris is weird. I remember the first map I linked here, that showed Hawaii only leaning dem, and tons of other weird stuff. It seems that he has moved into the opposite direction and now even shows Louisiana and Arkansas leaning blue.
Yeah. I think he is in the business of creating unreal expectations. But actually a poll in Arkansas about now might be pretty close
ladies are coming on to you nate
:-)
Is anyone on the ground in Virginia and can give a report on how heavy Virginia early voting has been??
dcm
I have argued they should dump Lieberman now. I think that would show guts and force Lieberman's hand. Might even win one or two senate seats.
Because I kind of think McCain has a similar take on bipartisanship from Bush had in 2000, which was basically I am bipartisan when they agree with me. Thats not compromise, thats taking credit when its not entirely deserved. And it shows a lack of intellectual curiosity and the bipartisanship you trumpet at every possible opportunity if you say you consult with Palin but not
Obama and Biden, because they are wrong.
I still think 60 Senate seats is a bit pie in the sky, and shouldn't be worried about, be happy with 54-55 or so, and call that a win, not allow the GOP to call keeping the Dems under 60 a win.
Holy crap-
CNN has Obama ahead in MO! Freakin' MO! If he is doing that, he is making real inroads everywhere. McCain owned MO, didn't Obama pull resources from MO a week or two back?
you know...ya know...you know...
How many times do you have to tell me I know something before you say it?
CNN polls....WTF???? Ahead in Missouri and Nevada.... I can´t believe that the new polls still beat the trend... this must be the day the polls called the election (a few days after the economy already gave Obama the "theoretical victory").
"I keep stressing it, but no one listens...centrism, moderation, and independence...
NOT partisanship, ideology, and divisiveness."
I'm sure that's not what you were saying when your shitty candidate Bush had all the power in the last 8 years.
but now I get it: John McCain is on his big "fuck you-tour". He is going to visit every state he won´t win and just grumbles to the press and insults everybody he meets.
I've never before been jealous of John McCain.
Missouri: Obama 49, McCain 48
* faints in shock *
MO - NV- FL
All show Obama ahead. McCain just can't lose these states. No wonder he was in IA, maybe he is behind everywhere and is just praying for a miracle.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/01/cnn-polls-major-gain-for-obama-in-battleground-states/
I went to thepage.time.com and those are real.
I'm telling you, Phish are back and that changes everything!
"didn't Obama pull resources from MO a week or two back"
Well, No. For one thing, Michelle is in Kansas City today. And I'm still seeing Obama ads on KC TV stations.
The KC Star had a big article today about the "bellweather" state of Missouri. I guess local pride is blinding them to the fact that MO is no longer really such a bellweather. But it said that Obama had outspent McCain in Mo. Said that McCains ads were only in KC and St Louis but Obama was advertising statewide.
For the record, I am both a Democrat AND a Yankee fan. Yes, it's possible.
CNN/TIME:
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44
Man, if these are right, it's landslide time. Glad to see the dramatic shift in Florida in another poll. Something happened there.
And Virginia, WOW!
holy shit
CNN/Time polls:
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47
Minnesota: Obama 54, McCain 43
Missouri: Obama 49, McCain 48
Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 47
Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44
More good news for Obama.
THIS IS AMAZING!!!
I can't believe both Nevada and MO are pulling ahead for Obama now
AMAZING
and a NINE point lead in VA??!?!
WOW
yay!!!
nice interview nate
!!
Nate, loved the Dan Rather interview.
this is not looking good for us
:-(
McCain needs to attack Obama now
That John Cornyn video is some classic shit. Thought it was a parody for a moment, but no.
Matt
its a OFFICIAL video
i love it :-)
AP Poll: Obama pulls away to 7-point lead
from The Associated Press
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., waves after he spoke at a rally in La Crosse, Wis. Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2008. Associated Press © 2008
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama D-Ill., greets fans during a campaign rally Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2008, in La Crosse, Wis. Associated Press © 2008
Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., arrives to deliver a speech on the economy at the Truman Library in Independence, Mo., Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2008. Associated Press © 2008
WASHINGTON October 1, 2008, 04:03 pm ET · Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets. On top of that, unrelated surveys show Obama beating McCain in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania — three states critical in the state-by-state battle for the presidency.
Several GOP strategists close to McCain's campaign privately fret that his chances for victory are starting to slip away.
any more polls coming
HOLY SHIT!!! Is that Obama up 1 in MO... ??? First confederates now in freaking Missouri?
Wow. I'm so anxious to see how many of these states come through on Nov 4.
On the IFILL thing:
The WHITE LADY is INCOMPETENT!
So, what do they do?
ATTACK THE BLACK LADY, like McCain did in the military! Powell was an exceptional exception.
Said that McCains ads were only in KC and St Louis but Obama was advertising statewide.
Tactic v Strategy
Obama ahead in Missouri????.
For what, St Louis, Kansas City maybe?
I start to understand why McCain spend a lot of money in Missouri.
Love the Fla numbers now it is confirmed Fla is trending Obama. the last 4 polls tie(Ras), O+3, O+8, O+4.
MN: is trending back to where it sould be, not tha tit was a huge concern since Mccain nevr lead a poll
MO: the Obama trend in MO continues.
NV: perhaps NV is moving with the rest of the southwest finally following NM and CO
VA: looking good 5 of last 7 polls show obama up +3 or more
Good job, Nate!
But what's up with people thinking Dan Rather is still on CBS? Hello? I would think this site, of anyone, would have people who pay attention to the news. Sheesh.
Does Rather, when he's speaking directly to the camera, remind anyone else of the guy who anchors The Onion News Network videos? A Rather-Silver election night team makes me think of a Biden-Obama ticket, for some reason. Or Palin-McCain, if McCain were the airhead. (Sorry: as a journalism major, I was never a Rather fan.)
"McCain needs to attack Obama now"
lmfao! Like that'll help, he's already done it 1,000,000,000~ times.
Gosh, Mule, I guess there are a lot more liberal hacks living in Missouri, Virginia, and Nevada than you thought, huh?
How does it feel to be the last person in a room that everyone else left months ago? Is the echo of your own voice, spewing Republican talking points, truly tragic, or just sad?
An interesting fact:
If we would add the CNN polls into Nate´s projection we would see Obama leading in every state he has EVER had a lead in - only exception: Montana (a Rasmussen poll showed Obama ahead just before the primaries).
So Obama might be winning every battleground state (375 EV). But after that, there are a lot of hardcore red states that just seem impenetrable (like Oklahoma, +30 McCain today). That´s a testament to the division of the nation into 2 camps.
darĂo said...
Obama ahead in Missouri????.
For what, St Louis, Kansas City maybe?
McCain will win MO
Obama has no chance
what can you expect from liberal hacks cnn & time magazine
they are in the tank for Obama
100% fake polls
What's up with McCain... is he fucking dying, or what?
I don't mean electorally. I mean literally. WATCH THESE:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/mccain-gets-lost-on-stage-at-event-just.html
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/slow-motion-video-of-mccains-facial.html
And WTF is the he doing in Iowa anyway???
The seven words:
"The fundamentals of the economy are strong."
So are we seeing a shift in a "safeness" for Obama? Regional too... first VA --> NC, NM --> CO ---> NV
But MO is kinda left field, no? Anyone know what's up with MO demographically, etc?
So Obama might be winning every battleground state (375 EV). But after that, there are a lot of hardcore red states that just seem impenetrable (like Oklahoma, +30 McCain today). That´s a testament to the division of the nation into 2 camps.
AKA, "The Big Sort".
Everyone on this site needs to take a look at Nate's predictive 'snapshot' model and compare it to these numbers. Wonderful. No poll has had Obama ahead in Missouri for months. Nate's model pegs him at +0.8. Sure enough, the poll comes out with him at +1.
porridgegun said...
And WTF is the he doing in Iowa anyway???
McCain Campaign ~ Best Campaign Ever ~
Wow, Nate, blogging is one thing, but the Dan Rather interview shows how well you think on your feet. Sean is right, your brain is huge
Obama can't win Utah
BOOOOO !
Dunno if this is old news or not, but CNN polls out!!
Obama 51 47 in Florida
Obama up 9 in VA
Obama up 1 in MO
CNN poll of polls has Obama up 5 in FL
Dunno if this is old news or not, but CNN polls out!!
Obama 51 47 in Florida
Obama up 9 in VA
Obama up 1 in MO
CNN poll of polls has Obama up 5 in FL
The CNN polls are even better when you include third parties (from Pollster):
Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1
Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2
Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0
Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0
It should be noted that Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania and Florida during the last two months of 2004.
Their polling in Florida in the last 45 days ranged from Bush +1 to Bush +8 and averaged Bush +5. Bush won by 5.
In Pennsylvania, the range was Bush +2 to Kerry +5 and averaged Kerry +1. Kerry won by 1.5.
They did not poll Ohio in 2004.
Quinnipiac polls today:
Florida: Obama +8
Ohio: Obama +8
Pennsylvania: Obama +15
I think they're far more accurate than some believe. I don't expect Obama to win by those margins in those states. If the election were held today, I don't think he'd win by quite those margins. But, I do think the polls are close to accurate. If you chpped 5 points off of all of them for Obama, he'd still be way ahead in all 3. I believe they're close to right. Cut the margins in half, McCain still has a problem. Historically Quinnipiac has been solid. Their internals do not look severely flawed.
Everyone on this site needs to take a look at Nate's predictive 'snapshot' model and compare it to these numbers. Wonderful. No poll has had Obama ahead in Missouri for months. Nate's model pegs him at +0.8. Sure enough, the poll comes out with him at +1.
But, but, but, I thought Nate was a liberal hack!
;)
Nate
did Dan/HDNET pay you to be the show ?
;-)
This is it for John McCain. Sarah Palin needs a grand slam homerun tomorrow or this race is over. Full stop.
Congrats on the HDNet gig - but I was hoping that MSNBC was going to pony up and get you on their coverage. You and Chucky T would be a interesting 1 - 2 Punch!
Keep up the good work!!
Are those CNN polls for real!!!!?????
I was alitte concerned because Obama's national numbers were ahead of where I thought he'd be in the battlegrounds. Research 2000 said he was polling 50-40 in the battleground states. Quinnipiac, PPP, and now CNN have Obama way out in front in these states. This is music to my eyes. I thin McCain is down 21 points with 5 minute to go in the 4th quarter. He may need multiple hail marys, immaculate receptions, and on-side kicks to pull this out. Hallelujah!
I think even if Sarah were to somehow pull the biggest miracle ever and destroy Biden in the debate... I'm not sure it would be enough at this point. Those interviews are BURNED into people's mind and unfortunately they came BEFORE her debate so it's harder to make up excuses.
Real Joe;
here's suggestion:
McCain only chance now is to attack you and all the other people like you.
Then McCain would go back to being the McCain we all knew, vs. the Karl Rove/Dickhead Cheney style hack.
Anyone in Virginia able to provide an update on early voting??
I wrote to Nate recently about the confusing term, "Win Percentage". I was surprised to see that he still doesn't understand why it's a confusing term. In fact, Olbermann asked him about it twice last night, and he STILL didn't seem to comprehend the question.
Statistics are great, but if no one knows what you're talking about, they're meaningless.
Joe will be crushed
you guys will see tomorrow
its all over for Obama-Biden
Holy crap, those CNN polls are amazingly good for Obama.
+8 Florida (confirming Quinnipiac)
+12 Minnesota (Defintiely NOT a swing state)
+1 Missouri (toss-up, as Nate's model predicted)
+5 Neveda (leaning Obama, as Nate's model predicted)
+10 Virgina (Is Virginia now "Safe Obama"?)
Nate's model has got to be close to 90% for Obama now.
Wow, wow, wow.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/battleground.polls/index.html
Here it is, attached above:
Praise Jesus, Allah, Jehova, Yahweh, Buddha, or whomever is listening.
This thing mos def is ova!!! McCain, Bush, Rove, Hannity, Palin, Limbaugh you like apples???
How do you like them apples???!!!
I declare victory!!!! I up my percentage for Obama from 75% to 95% with the state polling ou today. Clear signals in the battleground states that McCain has to climb Mount Everest in about 1 hour or it's over.
I'm not from Virginia, but I hope everyone there is voting early, because Obama's position there right now is freaking outstanding.
The polls today certainly demonstrate the predictive power of the 538 model (tomorrow's news today), but CNN having him up 9(!) in VA? Holy crap.
-- Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
Nate,
you looked very comfortable with dan rather. Congrats!!!
"I think even if Sarah were to somehow pull the biggest miracle ever and destroy Biden in the debate."
Why even contemplate this eventuality. She has little chance of going 90 minutes without any mistakes, she will have accomplished her mission if she simply avoids a horrendous flub. My own opinion - she will commit multiple horrendous flubs thusly pushing this election into the annals of historical landslides.
Karl should be made the manager of the campaign
he will crush the Obama-Biden ticket
CONGRATS, NATE!!!!
YOU'RE A MEDIA SUPERSTAR NOW! hahaha...i don't think i get hdnet on my tv but i hope you keep checking in to blog on election night!!
i think you should get a bigger server. it would suck if this site crashed.
Wow I'm impressed! I don't know if it was the editing or what -- I rather think not -- but you were totally ON in BOTH of those interviews. You speak quickly but with total confidence and humor... No "uh" or "ums" that I could see and I think Dan and Keith were genuinely impressed.
Really spectacular job! (And I'm quite surprised you're only one year older than me!) :)
Clait
I wonder if RCP will now project an Obama win even without toss-up states. They have to turn Virginia and Minnesota into "leaning blue" (271 EV) - I wonder if they´ll actually do that.
"But MO is kinda left field, no? Anyone know what's up with MO demographically, etc?"
Not really so far out in left field. Mo in the past has been considered a big swing state, sort of like Ohio, with a mix of industrial, urban, suburban and rural votes. Lately it has been trending red, mainly because the northern part of the state (bordering Iowa) has very low population while the southern part (bordering Arkansas) is growing.
The GOP brand is strong in the south, where Palin probably played well to the base, but weak statewide. The incumbent GOP gov refused to even run for re-election, and Dem AG Jay Nixon is expected to win. The GOP primary featured a conservative woman candidate who is Palin-esque; she lost.
Congratulations!
And nice tongue jut ;)
The nice thing about Quinnipiac and CNN is that they both make sense. Not really in the size of the lead. More in the relative strengths of Obama in different states. It's obvious that Obama will do better in PA than in Ohio and FL which will likely end up around the same.
And CNN shows that Obama is better in Minnesota than Virginia than Florida than Nevada than Missouri.
Contrast this to ARG whose results never make any sense.
Even Rasmussen has come up with some questionable results. A few weeks ago: Obama even in FL, but down by 8-10 in Ohio? Whatever.
also, i don't know when this interview was but you said somethinga bout the economy being a game changer in that interview.
if this was before the economy became a gamechanger, kudos.
"In fact, Olbermann asked him about it twice last night, and he STILL didn't seem to comprehend the question."
Maybe I say this because I do understand what he's talking about, and I'm familiar with Baseball Prospectus (where, for example, the Playoff Odds Report has been around for several years), but what's so confusing about "win percentage"? It answers to the most important question (which very few polls really ask)....what is the probability that, based on the polling information we have, Barack Obama is our next president?
@ shadowguidex
Of course... but you understand what I'm getting at.
I told you not to pay attention to earlier polls in MN, that it would shift back to Obama. Obama has a huge organization here after super Tuesday and will win easily.
McCain/Palin visit to Minnesota last week was much like McCain visit to Iowa this week. McCain is wasting his time in states where he doesn't have a chance. The McCain campaign is in disarray and can't figure out where they should be devoting their resources.
Kind of like GWB visiting California instead of Florida the day before the 2000 election. Bush was lucky the Supreme Court bailed him out. McCain won't be so fortunate this year.
"Of course... but you understand what I'm getting at."
Yar! I'm giddy as a school girl.
Justin, maybe "win probability" would be a better term. I was confused the first time I saw it, but now it makes sense, even if the phrase is not ideal.
I'm worried about McCain. His nerves are getting more and more frayed and he really seems to get angrier and angrier. He is gonna stress himself to death if he doesn't watch out. I would seriously not be surprised if McCain is dead within a year of natural causes.
Alyssa said...
So are we seeing a shift in a "safeness" for Obama? Regional too... first VA --> NC, NM --> CO ---> NV
But MO is kinda left field, no? Anyone know what's up with MO demographically, etc?
Obama might win Missouri in a landslide, but it won't be a tipping point. No reason to expect Obama to overperform there. Rising tide floats all boats. Virginia and Ohio are already voting. Great timing. These state polls are fantastic for Obama!!! The best news in the entire campaign. Look at them all. They're orgasmic!!! Keepin' it real, it's probably too much ground for McCain to make up. Something ridiculous has to happen in the next 35 days for McCain to hold off Obama in Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri. Too hard. If tomrrow's VP debate and the last two Prez debates are disasters for Obama/Biden and the bailout bill is somehow credited to McCain and Bush is able to force foreign policy to the front and center ahead of the economy, I'm still
not sure it would be enough. Let's not forget, 1/3 of all voting could take place in early voting. Obama might break out to a lead in Virginia that is impossible to overcome. Anybody that's not a math whiz out there, it's a specialty of mine. This thing is so over!!!! I'm the one that's been paranoid because I couldn't find a tipping point state for Obama. I'm reversing my thought. I don't think McCain can come back without something crazy.
Interesting stuff. Thanks rwd :)
Question:
When they poll in OH and VA going forward, will they be asking the people if they voted already?
If SO, how does that affect the polling? Will they discount people who have already voted, or will they just go into the column for whoever they voted for?
I love that the numbers for Obama are up even higher since this interview. Excellent! Congrats, Nate! I check your site every few hours! :-D
i think what people are trying to say is, Nate, you should run for president
i think what people are trying to say is, Nate, you should run for president
"Justin, maybe "win probability" would be a better term. I was confused the first time I saw it, but now it makes sense, even if the phrase is not ideal."
Fair enough, I suppose if you know that he does 10,000 simulations of the vote "win percentage" makes sense but at a first glance (or to Olbermann viewers who haven't seen the site) it can seem odd.
The polls are bad for McCain. But the worst thing is that McCain lose with the other candidates include. Not a good sign for him. It's look like every head to head poll could underestimate Obama a little bit.
INSIDE DICK MORRIS' FEVERISH MIND
Dick's Electoral Map (aka One Eyed Willie's Treasure Map)
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/1/04916/1557/63/616257
Yay! Nate for Prez!
Haha. I bet he reads half of these comments and rolls his eyes.
New ad targets Palin, highlights McCain age and health
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/01/new-ad-targets-palin-highlights-mccain-age-and-health/
Insider Advantage FL
O: 49
M: 46
Mentioned already?
InsiderAdvantage Nevada
Obama 48
McCain 47
Let´s see RCP.
RCP now includes the ARG polls.
Nevada is now Obama + 0,3.
I'm sorry...Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina will all be red on election day, barring a momumental f-up by the McCain campaign between now and November 4th.
If you think otherwise, you are a delusional idiot.
That Nate shows these so close to being toss-up states when the polls have so consistently been in McCain's favor shows he's an ideologoical and partisan hack.
Missouri: Obama 49, McCain 48
Oh, my Lord. This is seriously the last state that Obama even can pull, unless you're living in liberal dream land and think, somehow, he can snag Montana.
If he wins MO, then he will win every conceivable swing state: CO, VA, NV, OH, FL, NH, NC, and even freakin' IN.
Unbelievable.
Obama could provide coattails to a lot of Senators and House members. This totally awesome. Intrade isn't surging for Obama. He's still trading under 65%. This is a steal. We could be looking at Democratic rule for most of the next 30-40 years. Look at those polls. WOW!!! Somebody pinch me. I had a feeling because my circle of Independent/Lean Republican crew and many they know are on the Obama bandwagon. He had to be ahhead in the battlegrounds. Confirmation today. I don't know if the media's caught on, I've been out of pocket today. Stats is my psecialty. I'm a numbers guru. I'm telling you, McCain is going to have a super rough time trying to make up this ground.
"When they poll in OH and VA going forward, will they be asking the people if they voted already?
If SO, how does that affect the polling? Will they discount people who have already voted, or will they just go into the column for whoever they voted for?"
I'm pretty sure that if they called someone who already voted, they would just take their opinion, right? Am I right in saying they don't tabulate or release the early voting results pre-election day? So they wouldn't be double-counted if they participated in polls.
How is McCain dealing with VA? How can he possibly win without VA? Losing VA he can only hope for a miracle in PA or MI.
Also he is forced to spend heavy in OH and Florida to keep up.
At some point RNC must decide if they can continue spending heavy for the McCain campaign with a lot of tight downticket races going on.
Great to see you on TV. It's nice to see a "talking head" that isn't full of crap for once.
I don't think anyone is EXPECTING Missouri to be blue but that fact that it's so close is really crazy. Chill. Don't get your panties in a bunch Drool Slider.
NC on the other hand... could be the upset of the night all things considered.
McCain is coming undone. Two days in a row he's been irritable, grumpy, and cranky with the press on stright forward questions. Check it out on Politico.com
Nate's full of crap and so much more. Get a clue.
good job, nate.
Mule Rider, apparently McCain thinks MO might go blue, because he was here this morning and has been here a lot. Of course, he is a delusional idiot so maybe you have a point.
Remember, in the primaries, hillary was expected to win MO but Obama pulled it out in the end...
Dan rather is such a perspicacious dot connector.
He is a sign that the intelligent ones in the press don't die when they get fired from the mainstream media. like Obiwan, they evolve.
I love his story about voting machines. it's a must see, on video.google.com.
Nate, will HDnet's coverage of the election be streaming live online? if so i'll be sure to be watching you!
Cubs in 7! OK, let the games begin! And by the way thanks for the help with my fantasy league finish from 8th place last year to 3rd place this year!
"I'm sorry...Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina will all be red on election day, barring a momumental f-up by the McCain campaign between now and November 4th." - Mule
Pretty sure the monumental f-up has already happened dude. I'll give you a hint: it starts with "S", and ends with "arah Palin"
If Obama wins easily in St Louis and Kansas City and takes more votes than Kerry in the rural areas he can win Missouri.
HA HA!
I just went to Real Clear Politics and noticed that they are now including ARG polls, after not including them for weeks. Gee, I wonder why....
You mean the poll that Nate DID NOT conduct is full of crap?
Ooooh weee people sure are gettin PISSY. Haha. So funny.
Nate's just one more in a long line of partisan hate-mongering clowns.
Nothing new. Same for his man Obama. They've just both been savvy at repackaging the same old shit in a way that it looks cutting-edge and dynamic...tear away the outer cover and it still stinks just the same.
I think the key here is your average white woman looks atPalin and is thinking, "you know what, I'm a lot smarter than she is. She's embarassing!" Have you seen where women are falling? They don't like her. They don't want the world to think she represents the best we got. All nich cnadidates have passionate followings. If you think I'm wrong see Jesse Jackson, Howard Dean, Ron Paul, Pat Buchanon. The rest of the country is turned off by those folks. This is Palin. It's why McCain thinks she's a rock star,when she's a niche rock star. 70% of us think she's ridiculous.
Mule Rider,
how do Cnn/Time, Quinnipac and InsiderAdvantage confirming Nate's number crunching make Nate be full of shit. I really want to be able to follow your logic...
"Mule Rider said...
I'm sorry...Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina will all be red on election day, barring a momumental f-up by the McCain campaign between now and November 4th."
Hasn't almost every day been a monumental f-up by the McCain campaign? The dude is clearly out of his mind at this point. And Sarah Palin is a national laughing stock.
I think there's a very decent shot that Obama will blow this thing wide open. I'm talking 15+ popular vote win.
Rasmussen:
Texas: 52-43 McCain +9
Mississippi: 52-44 McCain +8
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