Our model does not make any specific adjustments for early voting, but it is presenting a major problem for John McCain in three states in the Mountain West region, where Barack Obama has a huge fraction of his vote locked in.
In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald's turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.
Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however -- say that Philadelphia remains in a collective stupor from the Phillies' win and that there is some sort of Bradley Effect in the Alleghanies -- Obama has a pretty decent firewall in the form of Virginia and Nevada, which had already achieved 53 percent of its 2004 voting totals as of Wednesday, and where Democrats have a 23-point edge in ballots cast so far in Las Vegas's Clark County (and perhaps more impressively, a 15-point advantage in Reno's Washoe County, a traditionally Republican area). The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia, total 270 electoral votes: an ugly, nail-biter of a win for Obama, but still one that would get him to 1600 Pennsylvania all the same.
10.31.2008
McCain's Mountain of a Problem
@ 10:34 AM
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411 comments
MCCAIN BY A LANDSLIDE!!!
yoink--I am not much of a gambler but I think it just may be a cheap long shot bet.
InkStain said...
There are no Republicans on the Supreme Court...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wrong. There are 7 republicans on the Court. Fact.
Oh Boy, I cannot wait for the young unaccounted-for cellphone votes.
Seriously, as a recent college grad...
Every college student in the country ONLY uses cellphones. Most of them being enthusiastic Obama supporters (especially in PA). I expect a monumental turnout.
"Wrong. There are 7 republicans on the Court. Fact."
Citation?
The true problem with Florida 2000 wasn't the recount, it was the butterfly ballot that gave 18,000 Gore voters to Pat Buchanan. Those were definitely NOT Buchanan voters in that county.
Those 18,000 votes would have made the recount meaningless.
dr Matt--assume Ginsburg a Dem, who is the other one?
yoink said...
Anyone have any idea what's going on at Intrade.com? ...Either someone is throwing away a lot of money to try to make McCain's chances look better or someone thinks they know something no one else does. Any one else noticed this?"
Maybe the "whitey" tape has resurfaced again.
Andrew,
Sorry. Palin does come off as a theocrat. No argument there.
My last two WV's renerol and rerms.
I'm not sure what "rerms" are but they don't sound good to have..."renerol" must be the ointment to treat them.
"Those 18,000 votes would have made the recount meaningless."
It was still within the margin of error. The reality is, we will never ever know who the plurality of Florida voters showed up with the intention of voting for.
Seven of the judges were appointed by Republican presidents. Those judges have since come to their senses.
Marist College - National
Obama 50, McCain 43
Dates conducted: Oct. 29. Error margin: 4 points.
These NC and MO polls are ridiculous:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081031/pl_politico/15117
The MO poll finds that Obama is winning 65% of the black vote. Really? If you ran that poll, wouldn’t you be embarrassed to release that projection, esp when you know that the number is consistently 95%+ across the whole country?
The NC poll finds that the state is neck and neck. But how can that be when we already know these NC early voter stats:
2 million people have early voted. 3.5M people total voted last election. That’s almost 60%.
27% of the early voters are black
53% are democratic, 30% are repub, and 18% are unaffiliated (and the unaffiliateds break for Obama in general)
I guess if there is a miraculous surge of Republicans on election day, it could be close. And maybe they’ll ride to the polls on unicorns with faerie princesses guiding their way.
KY Bluegrass Poll (Mason-Dixon)...
M: 51
O: 42
Kentucky
upset is more likely if the Obama campaign stays out of "safe Republican states" As an American who would be very proud to have a President Obama I can't imagine not voting if I lived in any safe Republican state. How could I miss the opportunity to cast a historic vote! Something I could tell my grand children about- how we changed America. Republicans thinking it is safe have no historic vote to cast- another old white guy.
If McCain loses, which it appears he likely will lose, I can see the political cartoon in the Arizona Republic on Wednesday:
A picture of Barry Goldwater's ghost visiting a cowering, nightcapped John McCain in a Dickensian dream with the caption:
"What did I tell you about selling your soul to the theocrats and corpo-fascists in the party, John?"
why do we put so much faith in intrade, we've seen manipulation throughout the election.
There are a ton of delusional McCain Palin fanatics, some of them have money and internet access.
Its already been reported once that a single person was buying up mccain contracts on intrade to skew the numbers. Even Olbermann talked about it.
"The NC poll finds that the state is neck and neck. But how can that be when we already know these NC early voter stats:"
NC has a *ton* of DINOs who are simply registered as Democrats but never actually vote for them, especially at the national level.
I finally understand the inherent genius of having the obama commercial on wednesday. Its going to be evidenced in all of the tracking polls starting TODAY. And sure enough, every tracking poll currently out right now has obama picking up a point. It creates a narrative. News will come on later in the evening with a story like "Obama holds/expands lead, race not tightening". Very smart.
The Sound of Science,
Thanks for your meaningless anecdotal evidence about college cell phone only users in PA.
I'm familiar with a bunch of college kids at the University of Memphis, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Missiissippi State, and the University of Alabama, and they all are cell phone only users and the vast majority are enthusiastic for McCain.
Strategic Vision today is giving only +5 to Obama in PA. This is the second consecutive close poll in PA (Mason Dixon had Obama +4 yesterday).
SV and MD both have been decidedly Republican all year. Just this week there have been polls out of PA showing Obama up 10, 12, 14, 12, 12, 13, 7, and 9. When Obama is averaging +10 across 10 different pollsters within days of each other, it's time to celebrate, not worry.
mule, renerol is the biofuel of the future- no good for rerms. I can recommend some 'hizel' or 'squiligh' instead.
Mule Rider - that is completely untrue. It's been shown that cellphone voters are more likely to be Obama supporters than landline voters. Even those in the same age group. Anecdotally I think we all see that to be true and so it's no surprise that studies have shown the same thing.
Me and my fiance are two Obama cellphone only supporters. I mean really - almost EVERYONE I know is a cellphone only Obama supporter. Think about that.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_chief_claims_Iowa_dead_even.html
The McCain campaign has officially entered the Baghdad Bob stage.
Real Joe said...
Marist College - National
Obama 50, McCain 43
Dates conducted: Oct. 29. Error margin: 4 points.
So, what they're really saying is that it's functionally tied. Se, if you move 4% from one side to the other, you have McCain 47% Obama 46%.
Nate's MOE=100%
"NC has a *ton* of DINOs who are simply registered as Democrats but never actually vote for them, especially at the national level."
Rassmussens latest poll had O winning 87% of Dems. Not sure if this is registered Dems or self-identified Dems
inkstain said...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_chief_claims_Iowa_dead_even.html
The McCain campaign has officially entered the Baghdad Bob stage.
LOL
"Me and my fiance are two Obama cellphone only supporters. I mean really - almost EVERYONE I know is a cellphone only Obama supporter. Think about that."
I've thought about it and dismissed it. The reason we have sites like 538 is because we know better than to trust anecdotal evidence or generalize from our own experiences.
Montgomery is red. Don't know why I typed blue. Grrr.
Harris and Ft. Bend depends on where the early turnout is happening. I don't think it's the solid red areas of those counties.
to all those fretting over intrade
read this article about the investor who put hundreds of thousands into intrade to skew the percentages.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265&cpage=1
"Texas is a hard nut to crack for a Dem."
Texans should consider that an indictment on Texas, not the Democratic Party.
"So, what they're really saying is that it's functionally tied. Se, if you move 4% from one side to the other, you have McCain 47% Obama 46%."
Does MOE even work that way? I was under the assumption that since the two numbers are virtually zero-sum, it'd really be two points either way.
I defer to InkStain's comments...he makes the point more eloquently and accurately.
MOE= Magnificence of Electionprojectioning, dan pelly?
Research 2000 Arizona
McCain 48
Obama 47
Hoo boy! :-)))
Mule - Look up Nate's post about cellphone only voters. If I remember correctly he thinks it could be a 2 or 3% boost for Obama not being counted in the non-cellphone polls.
I'm familiar with a bunch of college kids at the University of Memphis, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Missiissippi State, and the University of Alabama, and they all are cell phone only users and the vast majority are enthusiastic for McCain.
On balance, do you think the national cell-phone-only college kid demographic is strongly pro-Obama, strongly pro-McCain, or about 50/50?
Mule Rider said:
"McCain a "theocrat"? Learn what the term means. He will be a bad leader for the country but he is certainly not a "theocrat."
He's used the name of "God" or "Jesus" what like 5 times over the last year and a half."
That's why he needed Palin, who is the one being labeled as a theocrat. However I don't think she is. I'm guessing that, like GWBush, that's a flag she's wrapping herself in. A flag that pretty much every politician in your country needs to pay homage to if they want to expect voting successes. A tool she's using for her own ambitious ends.
Her true sins run much deeper than "theocrat".
New R2000 poll has Obama down ONE in AZ.
winniechili said...
New R2000 poll has Obama down ONE in AZ.
DAMN !
McCain in AZ on Monday
Mule,
There have been many polls and studies showing cell-phone only 18-29 year olds vs landline 18-29 year olds are noticably more supportive of Obama. Something like 70-30 vs 55-45.
And yes, college students in such fine institutions as Ole Miss and Alabama are in that 30. I know quite a few young cellphone-only McCain supporters here in Georgia myself. The discrepancy still exists. Don't argue points just for the sake of arguing them.
"I'm familiar with a bunch of college kids at the University of Memphis, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Missiissippi State, and the University of Alabama, and they all are cell phone only users and the vast majority are enthusiastic for McCain."
...and none of those state are at question for the GOP.
What is your point? We are talking about the traditional blue states and the swing states leaning Obama.
@winniechili
You don't have to be American to understand the references in The Daily Show, although I will admit that having an American wife is of some small assistance.
WC: busnest - where buses congregate to breed and leave three at a time.
On balance, definitely more pro-Obama. I was just throwing out a tit-for-tat anecdote though...if that's the game we're playing.
My point is that the difference between cell-phone only and landline users is not significantly different, thus landline users who are getting polled much more often are accurately reflecting the preferences of that age demographic.
@tylerxdurden
"Also are they electronic or paper ballots?"
In Colorado (at least Boulder County), you can choose to vote electronically or by paper ballots.
"Her true sins run much deeper than "theocrat"" ?? Takes a sinner to know another one, Tyler, my friend. Every twarit knows that.
MOE is calculated from each candidate's number, not the margin.
So if a horse race has numbers of 50-44, with MOE+/- 3, the pollster is saying the numbers could be anywhere between 53-41 and 47-47.
But and a big but, the likelihood of it being at the extremes is far, far less than the given number, which is presented as the most likely.
North Carolina early voting numbers just updated agains for yesterday's numbers. Youngest demographic went up from 12% to 13%. AA vote still at 26%. Women still at 56%. Democrats52%, Republicans 29%. Early vote totals now at 58% of 2004 total vote.
Comparing all these numbers to the 2004 numbers, all I can say is - put a fork in North Carolina, these trends are absolutely remarkable. This state is blue for sure. Keep it up North Carolina, I love it!
You don't have to be American to understand the references in The Daily Show, although I will admit that having an American wife is of some small assistance.
Fair enough. I will admit I don't get British humor/satire at all, lol.
"My point is that the difference between cell-phone only and landline users is not significantly different, thus landline users who are getting polled much more often are accurately reflecting the preferences of that age demographic."
Except that every poll they have done of cellphone only users have trended heavily Obama. Your assumption is just fucking wrong dude.
how are you mule ?
Mule Rider
I think Andrew may be referencing Palin's 25% chance of winning, and she does have scary religion/politics mixing tendencies (and I am a evengelical (Baptist)).
You guys are workign off of just as much anecdotal information as me, so quit badgering me and trying to make me look like the tool here.
Real Joe appears at Biden rally.
david4hire said...
I can't believe Nate is starting to sate that PENNSYLVANIA is in play right now.
The foot is definitely in the door.
No need to concern troll about PA. I am fairly sure the urban and suburban vote from Pittsburgh, Philly, Erie, the Lehigh Valley, and NE PA will outweigh the hick/redneck vote from the "T" region (ie, the counties bordering the MD line through the center part of the state up to the northern tier bordering NY State).
There are a hell of a lot more people on the urban/suburban regions than in the T counties. Philly and its semi-urban ring (Chester, Norristown, Bristol) should see massive Dem turnout for Obama, especially the AA community. The collar suburbs around Philly have trended Dem for years and should turn out for O as well.
I'm not discounting a PA upset for McCain. It could happen, and if it does, it would be absolutely shocking. If I were a bookie I'd put 10-1 odds on it right now - big payoff but not likely.
word verification: sting. That's what being addicted to this site does to my brain...
Andrew said...
I'm familiar with a bunch of college kids at the University of Memphis, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Missiissippi State, and the University of Alabama, and they all are cell phone only users and the vast majority are enthusiastic for McCain.
On balance, do you think the national cell-phone-only college kid demographic is strongly pro-Obama, strongly pro-McCain, or about 50/50?
About 80% Obama, 20% McCain
You mean to tell me you know a bunch of white kids in Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi for McCain? No way?
I'm a little older now, but my gut instinct tells me I could match you times 5 with the "college-kid" demographic for Obama at say UNC, UVA, Harvard, UCLA, Michigan, Ohio State, Yale, Duke, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Colorado etc. ,etc., etc. etc. etc. etc. etc,
Eric: You're misunderestimating McCain's support. First, while the Marist poll seems to show a 7 point O lead, there are a couple of polls in the last week that show O with more like a 3 point lead. That means Marist must be oversampling Dems/Marxists and the true number is more like 3. Then, the Bradley Effect/Affect means that at least 5% of Obama's "support" is so afraid that an anonymous phone reporter will think they are racist that they lie and are really McCain supporters. Then, assume 80-99% of all undecideds break for McCain. Then assume the youth vote and African American vote don't show up. Then imagine Palin winking.
It's really GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
WV: "ahill" -- what, clearly, McCain/Palin have to climb
I like The Daily Show.
There are 2-3 parts to the show:
1. Opening monologue. Just John, and almost always hilarious.
2. Live reporter (sometimes). John and one of the gang back-and-forth. Sometimes great, sometimes not so much.
3. Guest interview. If it is an entertainer then it is usually mostly humor, but if it is a political or literary person then the tone is more business-like with touches of humor.
If the guest is "major" (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and such) then the 2nd section is usually skipped to allow more time for the interview.
WV = "bangso"
" roderick said...
to all those fretting over intrade
read this article about the investor who put hundreds of thousands into intrade to skew the percentages.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265&cpage=1"
He's using it as a hedge fund. If he's really big then 100's of thousands could be chump change for what you could think of as an insurance policy.
I'm doing fine, Real Joe.
shadowguidex (and others),
Fine. That's your opinion (that I'm wrong). I'm not arguing any more. We'll see what the numbers show next Tuesday. I'm not wasting any more keystrokes on that topic.
Er, not hedge fund. I mean hedge.
Um, wasn't Palin supposed to release her medical records sometime this week. I know we still have all of today and tomorrow before the week runs out, but I ain't holding my breath.
To be honest, I think Obama brings up God and Jesus and the bible much more that McCain and Palin put together.
mule, it's a landslide.
--while I'm an Obama supporter, what I'm most interested in this election is which state will be the swing state (I think it's Missouri). I have a poll up on my blog if you're interested: peradastra.blogspot.com
I think we'll be spending most of tuesday night worrying about Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. I don't think Virginia and Florida are going to be swing states this time. Your thoughts?
Jesus - 8 hour lines in Georgia! Yikes. I feel good about my 5 minute wait here in Wisconsin.
I'm in Texas. In 2004 the town I voted in was 76% for Bush. Any number lower than that will make me happy.
Of course, these days I'm actually in Dallas, instead of a suburb of Fort Worth...
This is purely anecdotal and I usually try to block it all out of my memory, so I've watched no documentaries, etc. but:
I worked on the newsroom floor of the Palm Beach Post during the 2000 election. I can confirm that the metro desk started getting calls first thing in the morning from extremely worried retirees who thought they might have accidentally voted Buchanan.
Palm Beach County is traditionally Democratic. Against all probability, it did not go Democratic, and had a ridiculous number of Buchanan votes.
Palm Beach County going Democratic would have swung Florida.
Florida going Democratic would have won Gore the election.
Correct me if I've got any of this wrong.
If not, then I'll agree it wasn't outright theft that won the 2000 election, at least not at first--it was a misguided ballot design. But it was followed up by massive efforts (including busloads of young repubs driven in to intimidate and protest recount efforts), up to the Secretary of State level, to keep the error from being corrected.
This site has made me realize that my knee-jerk liberal assumption that 2004 was 'stolen' is just that--an assumption. 2000? Not so much.
On balance, definitely more pro-Obama. ...
My point is that the difference between cell-phone only and landline users is not significantly different,
I gotcha. Cell-phone-only demo is strongly pro-Obama; but who cares because so is the entire nation!!!
:-)
This cell phone stuff is silly. Yes young people have cell phones, middle aged people have cell phones, older people have cell phones (yes even me)---what does that have to do with who you will vote for?
afsking-I'm just afsking
shadowguidex said...
North Carolina early voting numbers just updated agains for yesterday's numbers. Youngest demographic went up from 12% to 13%. AA vote still at 26%. Women still at 56%. Democrats52%, Republicans 29%. Early vote totals now at 58% of 2004 total vote.
Comparing all these numbers to the 2004 numbers, all I can say is - put a fork in North Carolina, these trends are absolutely remarkable. This state is blue for sure. Keep it up North Carolina, I love it!
I believe you're right. That said, notice two things, there are al ot more registered Democrats in North Carolina than Republicans. Republicans tend to win their fair share of the Dem vote there because the Dixiecrats have some Republican issues, one of them probably being race. Pubs tend to win about 20% of the Dem vote in North Carolina. Dems have such a huge advantage in Nroth Carolina early voting that there's no doubt Obama is currently way ahead. just don't assume he's as far ahead as you might think. It's a strange state with regards to Voter ID.
R2K poll also shows McCain losing a Senate matchup against Napolitano by a substantial margin.
ver. word - undedl (Halloween zombies)
Obama only 1 point behind in AZ???
This proud AZ Democrat is f&%#ing in heaven!!!
WV: tullt - we could see AZ tullt to Obama!
Remember: unlimited votes for all those with 538 loyalty cards. and the 'unded'.
I think the writing is on the wall this time around guys. Usually the friday before the election, you start getting the signs..and through the weekend you really get the smell of how things are going to play out.
I think we have this one in a big way.
Elliot said...
--while I'm an Obama supporter, what I'm most interested in this election is which state will be the swing state (I think it's Missouri). I have a poll up on my blog if you're interested: peradastra.blogspot.com
I think we'll be spending most of tuesday night worrying about Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. I don't think Virginia and Florida are going to be swing states this time. Your thoughts?
Worrying about? What do you mean? You think Virginia and Florida end up in Obama's column? If so, those other states won't matter.
Yeah guys, the polls matter less and less as these early voting totals start rolling in. These numbers are seriously off the hook. "Likely" voter models are all looking foolish right now, these REAL VOTE totals are ridiculous (particularly when you compare them to 2004 early and final vote totals).
assmole the verified said...
Real Joe appears at Biden rally.
i did ?
LOL
I think we'll be spending most of tuesday night worrying about Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. I don't think Virginia and Florida are going to be swing states this time
So you think VA and FL will not be swing states, but instead will go clearly for McCain?
If not, there's no need to worry about those other states....
Without John McCain, this would be a landslide for Obama. But war heroes are probably more respected in America than any other figures.
I think Obama will win either 51-48 or 52-47. I'm not sure which at the moment.
To be honest, I think Obama brings up God and Jesus and the bible much more that McCain and Palin put together.
That's true, but remember he's up against crap like the fact that 20% of idjits in Texas still think he's Muslim.
Palin doesn't need to constantly mention god for it to be VERY obvious that she's a theocrat.
@inkstain --
"inism - a cliche spouted by people who think they are cool"
Well done sir!
wooto -- what the collective Democrats said after FL was "re-called" by the networks in 2000.
That's true, but remember he's up against crap like the fact that 20% of idjits in Texas still think he's Muslim.
Point of correction:
23% of Texans are idjits that still think he's Muslim.
Not all of us are idjits. :)
Yes, I think it's over too. I'm not arguing to the contrary. But it gets ridiculous reading through all of these comments about "hidden" and almost magical voters that will suddenly appear between now and next Tuesday and push this from a 6-7 point win to 10-12 blowout and a 538 EV sweep. Maybe I'm exaggerating as no one has actually suggested it be that much, but you are kidding yourself if you think Obama magically has all of this unseen support that's not being picked up by current polling. There are an equal amount (or more) factors of hidden things that are likely dettractors for him, so I think it's prudent to believe EXACTLY what the polls are telling us.
You did, Joe the Real, and the Bosniaks went apeshit.
"This cell phone stuff is silly. Yes young people have cell phones, middle aged people have cell phones, older people have cell phones (yes even me)---what does that have to do with who you will vote for?"
Have you seen any of the studies?
Pew Research Group did a good one showing that people who have *only* cell phones tend to be noticeably more likely to support Obama. And most polling firms only call landlines. This site confirmed that the few polls who mixed in cell phones were reliably 2-3 points better for Obama than the rest.
A couple questions (Nate, anyone?):
- These early voting numbers -- are any of them from actual precinct vote counts? Or is it all still exit polling (or other kinds of polling)?
- The overall turnout -- historically turnout has been 'low' in this country (18-40% of 'eligible' voters?). Are there signs that this election will demolish those records?
Respect the war hero (still have to figure out why being a POW makes you a war hero---instead of a lousy pilot) but vote for Obama.
Marist must be oversampling Dems/Marxists and the true number is more like 3.
You can't spell Marxist without Marist.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to find a mechanic and get my car's spoptils changes.
@ Nam Vet Joe (a.k.a. GI Joe)
I think the idea is that young people are far more likely to be cell-phone-only. And that is Obama's strongest demographic. That said, if a pollster weights for age, that should reduce sampling problems.
winniechili said...
Palin doesn't need to constantly mention god for it to be VERY obvious that she's a theocrat.
Too power hungry and egotistical to be a theocrat. She wants to rule the world. Too bad she's unintelligent. Did we see the ex-sportcaster say how about them Phillies in Western PA? Sarah Palin is a total fucking dumbass!
If i were McCain, i would make a one term promise today. I think it's the only thing that could help at this point...
You may be right mule rider. I think we'll find that PEW and CBS/NYTimes are right on election day.
You think Rasmussen? is going to be right.
We have to wait and see.
McCain has announced he will end his campaign Monday evening with a traditional GOP hight-before-election rally in Prescott AZ.
Obama's schedule (likely airport hopping, ending in the west) has not been announced.
Might he go to Phoenix at the same time as McCain's rally? What would be the national impact of a massive rally (100,000) to a much smaller McCain one at home?
It might backlash locally and look not so good nationally - I'm not sure.
It might come at the expense of a stop in either Colorado or Nevada, which needs to be considered.
But I suspect the thought has crossed someome's mind in Chicago...
(unicanif - a United Nations organization for the who insist on preconditions)
Inkstain, what's a DINO?
PA carlos: not enough. He needs to ditch Palin and say he would make Obama his Secretary of State.
I agree with mule rider. Despite my very strong support for Obama, I often see myself exercising restraint and careful analysis. While a landslide in EV's is quite possible, I do not believe there are any voters hiding in the woods that will come out in droves on November 4. The polls are probably already showing what's going to happen on Tuesday: Obama with a clear EV win (300+ votes) and a popular vote margin of around 5%.
WV: anocal - Californian anal
Enough frakking arguing about anecdotes about cell-phone-only users vesus land-line users. Somebody find one of these studies that shows it one way or the other or STFU.
WV- Frack. (Not making this up.)
"I think the idea is that young people are far more likely to be cell-phone-only. And that is Obama's strongest demographic. That said, if a pollster weights for age, that should reduce sampling problems."
No, it goes beyond that. The pollsters' assumption was that weighting by age would fix it.
Nate's analysis and Pew Research Group's study proved that cell-phone-only voters tend to be even more Obama-friendly than otherwise demographically similar voters.
looks like Obama is ending his campaign in NoVA on Monday night.
Carlos from Philly said...
If i were McCain, i would make a one term promise today. I think it's the only thing that could help at this point...
59% think Sarah Palin is not ready to be Vice-President. Less than 35% say yes, she's ready. The resto, not sure. That's an extremely low hurdle. People would prefer a senile President over Palin. Promising one term wouldn't help. It would assume teeing up Palin for 2012.
Also - Mule Rider - > how about these early vote totals that show 35% of the vote in GA are black people while the GA polls were using 28% numbers? And similarly in NC 28% vs. 20% ... OBVIOUSLY if these numbers hold Obama will do significantly better than the polls. Very significantly better. You admit that right?
The only question is whether those numbers will hold through election day.
I'm cellphone only and I support Obama, what more proof do you need?
:)
"Inkstain, what's a DINO?"
Democrat in Name Only
Stop with Obama going to AZ. HE is not going to do it.
He has absolutely NOTHING to gain and could get some blowback.
If he wins Arizona, it means that he is close to 400 EVs.
Arizona does not matter.
Happy to be part of all this, since I'm fairly certain our 04 vote was rigged. I voted on Tuesday in Albuquerque and waited 2.5 hours. It was a record day for early voting in ABQ. I also attended Obama's rally her on Saturday with 45,000 others. McCain's rally the same day drew under 1000. Woot!
Nearly, ankstain, it's Douchebag in Name Only.
I think there is a very real chance that polls are significantly underestimating Obama's huge new voter drive and his huge GOTV effort.
I was thinking about this. WHAT IF: 70% of black people nationwide vote vs say... 55% of white people. Are any of the polls even considering such a possibility?
"The only question is whether those numbers will hold through election day."
Well, based on the 8 hour lines in Alanta GA, I'd assume the numbers are gonna hold up.
Thanks for not wanting to press any more Josh. I feel like this election cycle is compared to the two weeks before the Super Bowl, of course drawn out over a much longer time period.
Several months ago was for all of the trash talk about "We'll win, and by this much"
Now, the game is underway....literally, with early voting, and the Obama team has taken a 17-7 lead into the 2nd quarter.
No more trash talking or whatever. The Obama team has the strength and momentum and is expected to win. Now, the question is whether he'll win something like a 42-14 game or more like 38-35...or in between at say 35-28...or by some crazy thing that McCain comes back in the 4th quarter with an upset and wins 42-38 or some crazy score like that on a last second play.
Some of you are expecting the demolition to continue...I expect it to be closer but still a loss for McCain. I just want to watch the rest of the game with no more trash talking.
I'll wake up and go to work next Wednesday morning no matter who is elected. And I doubt the next 4 or 8 years of my life under one would be that much different under the other. So I ain't sweatin' it.
If AA voters make up 35% of the Georgia total when it's all said and done, Obama wins the state with ease.
I doubt it will work out that way.
kittles 93 - I agree about the blowback going to Az. It'll look like he's trying to rub it in McCain's face. I think doing ads there is cool though. But he shouldn't go there himself. Georgia would be a better place to go.
While I agree that cell-phone only voters are mostly younger people, at the same time I believe this age category is the least likely to actually turn out and vote. This is why I think the "cell phone" effect (as well as the so-called and debated Bradley effect) are pure MYTHS.
winniechili said...
" What in the world is all this talk of intrade? Just cause some douche somewhere is buying McCain "stock" that somehow reflects what's going on in the country?
I've never quite understood it."
Well, the question is whether or not it does "reflect what's going on in the country." You might remember the debate a few years back about futures markets for terrorist activity. Some in the intelligence community were very much in favor of them--the idea being that if someone was planning a large scale operation, there'd be a good chance that some of those in the know would find it hard to resist making a bit of cash on the side by betting on the market. If you saw a sudden uptick of money on "major terrorist attack on US city before August 09" or something, you'd know to start looking hard at any other leads you were getting to that effect.
Similarly, if you suddenly saw unusual activity on, say, "Joe Biden to be President by the end of 2009" you might think that someone has gotten wind of a plot to assassinate Obama after the election.
So, the question about the unusual activity on intrade.com wrt McCain is whether this is simply some rich friend of his engaging in image manipulation, or whether it's someone with some relevant inside knowledge (e.g. re voter-disenfranchisement or vote-fraud techniques, or some remarkable 'early November surprise' or what have you).
Either way, it's an odd business. If you're a rich friend of McCain's, is this the best use of thousands of your dollars? Do voters really pay that much attention to intrade.com? I'd be interested to hear what Nate thinks is up.
"McCain has announced he will end his campaign Monday evening with a traditional GOP hight-before-election rally in Prescott AZ."
He has to go to Prescott because Phoenix and Tucson are putting McCain back in the game.
Prescott is in the "Real Arizona", I guess.
If all the polling is wrong and McCain does win (and to be sure, that's his only chance, if *all* the polling data is wrong), then I'm with Mule Rider. Life will go on, the country won't be that much worse off and I'll have a lot to admire in the next President. (The next VP, however, in that scenario, I pledge her undying hatred and animosity).
What were those weird glasses Nate wore on Countdown about? Was it a Hallowe'en thing?
Damn, MSNBC is driving me crazy today trying to push that this is a neck and neck race. They keep pushing that M-D PA poll and that really bad ASU poll from OCTOBER 17 that NM is tied. Seems desperation is setting in there at least with the daytime anchors.
hmm... somewhat bad news here for president-elect John Sidney McCain.
By the way, he recently campaigned in Defiance, Ohio in addition to his brief visit to Waterloo, Iowa.
Blogger LAT said...
looks like Obama is ending his campaign in NoVA on Monday night."
He's going to be in Mannassas, about 10 minutes from my work.
nate was dressed as sarah palin
Is anyone watching the live footage at the lines in Georgia to early vote?
"If AA voters make up 35% of the Georgia total when it's all said and done, Obama wins the state with ease.
I doubt it will work out that way."
African Americans make up 30% of the population of Georgia. If they vote at high percentages they can maintain 36% of the vote total. I'll bet money that they will make up a minimum of 30-33% of the vote totals.
Josh said...
Also - Mule Rider - > how about these early vote totals that show 35% of the vote in GA are black people while the GA polls were using 28% numbers? And similarly in NC 28% vs. 20% ... OBVIOUSLY if these numbers hold Obama will do significantly better than the polls. Very significantly better. You admit that right?
The only question is whether those numbers will hold through election day.
Those numbers definitely will not hold up. Enthusiasm translates to voting early, not twice. Think of it this way, if you have 100 voters and 20 are African-American, they have more enthusiasm than the other 80. you say you can vote anytime between now and November 4th. Enthusiasm translates to action. Of the 20 African-Americans, 15 vote early. Of the other 80, only 35 vote early. 30% of the early voters are African-American. It's likely that the end tally will be more than 20% African-American, but substantially less than the early vote %. If the North Carolina vote ends up 23% African-American, that's great news for Obama.
And stop with the "election is rigged" crap from 2000, 2004, or whenever.
That's a whiner's way of excusing away and not being able to rationalize that you DIDN'T share the majority opinion that year. Get over it.
I've had to do the same...with my ideals and not necessarily my votes.
I find it hard to believe that the majority of people hold different opinions than me on certain things...but you know what....when I see research and data that says that explicitly, I don't say it's "rigged"...I say, "Hmmm. Interesting." And I go about my merry freaking way. No whining. No complaining.
wv is euretsio - European port-a-potty
The true X factor in this election is not the Bradley effect per se or the cellphone/youth effect but rather this:
Between 50% and 80% of all people reached by phone this fall have refused to participate in polls. According to pollsters, the non-participants tend to be older, more conservative, and more anti-black.
That is why Obama will still be campaigning in Iowa and PA the next couple days.
The Gallup Poll people have called my cell phone 3 times and I am always at work when they call. I am so bummed out every time, because I want them to know I'm am Obama supporter. It comes up on my phone as UNKNOWN. I never answer UNKNOWN because I think it's a telemarketer. I wonder how many other Obama people the polls have missed? Most of us have jobs.
McCain having his last campaign rally in PRESCOTT??? What an embarrassment! He can't do it in Phoenix or Tucson because both cities are going HEAVILY for Obama! If he did it in Phoenix he would probably have to bus in a bunch of students from Show Low! LOL!!!
The Gallup Poll people have called my cell phone 3 times and I am always at work when they call. I am so bummed out every time, because I want them to know I'm am Obama supporter. It comes up on my phone as UNKNOWN. I never answer UNKNOWN because I think it's a telemarketer. I wonder how many other Obama people the polls have missed? Most of us have jobs.
If he ends in NoVa:
1) It is extremely untraditional - normally candidates chase the sunset west
2) He might be spending the day with rallies in FL, NC, VA and PA, which would make sense and show confidence in the western states.
Eric, I agree with you that it's unlikely to end up at the crazy high % it's at now. But I also think it will end up higher than the polls are account for. The question is how much higher.
But obviously with AA vote going to Obama almost 100%, The % of AA vote of the entire vote is very important.
If these polls don't have accurate AA % then they are flat out not accurate.
I agree too, Ink. Palin will make me a bit queasy, but maybe we can sneak through (if McCain wins) with her being obsolete.
I don't think we'll have to worry about it though.
mrinsight22-
Look at the early voting totals buddy. We're out of poll territory, we're in to actual votes. You can't spin this shit anymore. There is no good news for McCain in these numbers.
mrinsight - there may be a slight tick McCain's way because of what you just said - but you must remember there is something called weighting. cranky old ignorant white people are accounted for in poll weightings.
on the other hand it's looking very likely that AA are being UNDER accounted for in the poll weightings.
MrInsight22 said...
The true X factor in this election is not the Bradley effect per se or the cellphone/youth effect but rather this:
Between 50% and 80% of all people reached by phone this fall have refused to participate in polls. According to pollsters, the non-participants tend to be older, more conservative, and more anti-black.
That's hilarious. Just curious as to how they got that information since they didn't pick up the phone?
Mulerider,
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. When the lections were hanging in the balance and corrupt Secretaries of State had the ability to control the outcome, if you don't think they did, I think you'd be living in some fairy dreamland. I'll acknowledge, 2004 Bush probably deserved to win, even if Ohio was stolen. Npt sure, what the outcome would've been if voters weren't suppressed. 119,000 votes is a lot to make up. Bush won the popular vote by 2.5%. The majoriy of the country preferred Bush. 2000, different story. florida was stolen. Gore won the popular vote. Bush won Florida by 538 votes I think. There were probably at least 100,000 more votes for Gore left on the table. Gore should have won that election. Florida's voice wasn't heard, nor was the country's.
shadowguidex,
As has been pointed out a hundred times already, early voting just measures enthusiasm. They'll be sitting at home on the 4th. You don't get another vote.
You get a pat on the back for getting it out of the way and not clogging the lines on election day, but that's about it.
The only thing it confirms is that enthusiasm is waaaay up, which was already known.
mule rider - yes but the more people that vote early - the more likely that the remaining people will vote on election day. it's all part of the obama plan. they can target the remaining voters easier. lines will be shorter. so on and so forth. i think early voting is a huge advantage for obama. all states with significant early voting will overperform the polls in obama's favor - i would put money on it. maybe i should actually. *heads to intrade*
The Republicans have never stolen an election.
Tell that to Sam Tilden!
mule-
Were it not for the new registrations and the increase in lapsed voters, I'd agree with you. But this isn't the same exact X number of people from 2004 just voting on different days.
Regarding Georgia and Atlanta in particular; I was down there in early October in the middle of the gas shortage. It was a nightmare with long 2-4 hour lines at ALL gas stations in Atlanta (stations that had gas as many of them didn't). I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the early votes are to avoid the nightmare long lines on Election Day similary to what they went through with the 2 week gas shortage problem.
"You get a pat on the back for getting it out of the way and not clogging the lines on election day, but that's about it. "
You also get marked off the voter rolls for the GOTV effort, meaning they can spend their time on other, less likely voters.
Early voting banks safe votes and makes GOTV's reach stretch much further.
mrinsight22 - Think very carefully about the parlay necessary for your "old, conservative, racist" nonrespondents to be the X-factor in this election.
And then never post again. Thanks!
Mule Rider said...
shadowguidex,
As has been pointed out a hundred times already, early voting just measures enthusiasm. They'll be sitting at home on the 4th. You don't get another vote.
You get a pat on the back for getting it out of the way and not clogging the lines on election day, but that's about it.
The only thing it confirms is that enthusiasm is waaaay up, which was already known.
Not completely true either. Enthusiasm should translate to victory. If there are 100 registered voters. 50 would vote Obama and 50 would vote McCain. We'll have 70 out of the 100 turnout and vote. Early voting favors the enthusiastic. Obama is up in the early voting 25 to 15. Now, only 30 of the other 70 are going to vote. McCain needs to win among those 30, 20 to 10. Numbers aren't perfect, but you get my point. California went to Clinton over Obama because of early voting. It matters a lot.
I meant 30 of the other 60, sorry.
Can Inkstain please be renamed the voice of reason? Its getting out of hand how he keeps just popping up being reasonable all the time - has he not read the handbook on blogging?
Spot on about the Stealing and If JM wins.
An about intrade, we have it in the UK too, every four years England are 2nd or 3rd favourites to win the football world cup. Does it mean that people ahve inside information that training is going really well? Nope it means people are throwing money at hope over evidence.*
*England are I beleive third Favourites for the 2010 world cup despite it being 2 years away and them not being one the best 16 teams in Europe. A bit like saying youre gonna win PA though not leading in a poll since April.
@mc9cain
I am watching lines miles long on MSNBC in Georgia. Amazing.
" I just want to watch the rest of the game with no more trash talking. "
Hilarious. The republican fans who have been talking trash for the last 5 months (he's a terrorist, he's a socialist, he wants to teach sex ed to kindergartners, he doesn't love his country, etc, etc.).... NOW they want a truce.
Typical.
Ok, mule, no more trash talking. We will do our talking on Nov. 4.
"Can Inkstain please be renamed the voice of reason? Its getting out of hand how he keeps just popping up being reasonable all the time - has he not read the handbook on blogging?"
I was once given the nickame of "the Pounding Fist of Logic" on a poker web site, with a sweet avatar to match.
MR-
Is the uptick of enthuiasm bringing in new or sporadic voters? Did the people who are now voting early vote at all in the past couple of cycles?
These are the important questions. If the answer to the first is positive and the second is negative, then we could very well see the same 50/50ish crowd show up on the 4th. That would spell disaster for McCain. We have some evidence saying that the case (the CO GOP voterfile "leak").
Early voting measures enthusiasm, to be sure. But enthusiasm is a good indicator of GOTV effectiveness. Take the SUSA Indiana poll: Obama leads among early voters by a whopping 64-32 margin, even though the electorate as a whole is 50-50. Only 17% in that sample had voted early, and Obama clearly isn't going to win the state by a 32-point margin, so what can we deduce from that figure?
We've been saying all along that the disparate GOTV efforts of the campaign might yield a 2-3 point swing towards Obama. But with an enthusiasm and organization gap that large, I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama outperform the polls in IN by a good 5 points.
"*England are I beleive third Favourites for the 2010 world cup despite it being 2 years away and them not being one the best 16 teams in Europe. A bit like saying youre gonna win PA though not leading in a poll since April."
If your football team is half a frustrating as your cricket team, I don't know how you keep up morale.
Folks, PRESCOTT is not even one of the 10 largest cities in Arizona! The largest cities as of 2005 are:
1 - Phoenix
2 - Tucson
3 - Mesa (PHX area)
4 - Glendale (PHX area)
5 - Chandler (PHX area)
6 - Scottsdale (PHX area)
7 - Gilbert (PHX area)
8 - Tempe (PHX area)
9 - Peoria (PHX area)
10 - Yuma
Check this out: 7 out of the 10 largest cities are in the Phoenix area! If any candidate was looking for high attendance and impact in a campaign rally in Arizona, which city would he pick???
This is why McCain's pick of Prescott for his last campaign rally is embarrassing to say the least! Everyone here, in Tucson and Flagstaff will be saying he chickened out to Prescott (does he thinh Prescott is "real Arizona")?
This being said, too bad that Obama didn't hold at least one rally in the PHX area...
My prediction:
EV: Obama 357. McCain just barely keeps MO and IN but the rest of cnn's swing states go Obama. I don't see O flipping GA or AZ, but I think they will be pretty close as well. In short, a commanding mandate level win but not a Historic Landslide (however, watch for that in 2012 if Obama governs as well as he campaigns and the reps are dumb enough to run palin or some other right-wing loon)
Popular: Obama by 6%.
I feel pretty confident it won't be much below this, and I hope to be proven too cautious on the upside. However, I think that >270 is in the bag, and that's what matters at the end of the day.
This is getting ridiculously tantalizing, with the rumors about Rahm Emanuel getting the Chief of Staff slot in an Obama administration.
Oh my fucking god. We not only have the potential to get a Harvard intellectual and unqualified humanist as our #1 pol. Our #2 pol would be Jewish.
Please yes, please yes, please yes.
O doing a good job in IA right now (MSNBC)
No matter how hard I try, I just can't get a path to 400 for Obama. Even if *everything* breaks his way, he tops out at 397.
InkStain said...
"Can Inkstain please be renamed the voice of reason? Its getting out of hand how he keeps just popping up being reasonable all the time - has he not read the handbook on blogging?"
I was once given the nickame of "the Pounding Fist of Logic" on a poker web site, with a sweet avatar to match.
What site do you play on most? Pokerstars? No worries with regards to new laws? I used to play online a lot.
InkStain said...
No matter how hard I try, I just can't get a path to 400 for Obama. Even if *everything* breaks his way, he tops out at 397.
Unless you give him Arizona or one of the states with extremely heavy AA support other than Georgia, like Mississippi or Louisiana. 397 is probably the ceiling though.
Even if *everything* breaks his way, he tops out at 397.
Swing states + AZ and GA gives Obama 400.
Granted they are long shots, but not impossible.
"What site do you play on most? Pokerstars? No worries with regards to new laws? I used to play online a lot."
Yes. I'm mostly an Omaha and Razz player (these are games where there's still a lot of bad players. Everyone knows how to play Texas Hold'em by now).
The laws aren't too bad. It can be a pain to get money on to the sites, but I've rarely needed to (most recently when I cashed out everything to pay for the move to ND). Withdrawing is easy.
It'd be nice if it were legalized completely in America to bring back the casual players, but other than that I don't worry about it.
inkstain: I'm being extremely conservative in my electoral map. I'm giving ALL tossups to McCain, and in my projection Obama still gets 311 EV's against 227 for McCain. And if by any chance Obama also loses OH and CO he still wins 282-256. IMO this is the worst case scenario for Obama on Tuesday.
Apparently the Prescott event is a traditional Arizona end of campaign GOP event, done every election cycle. So there is some logic to it. It also doesn't as readily convey panic about AZ as would a Phoenix rally since they have the excuse of tradition.
It guarantees an enthusiastic, friendly crowd, might make OK TV (maybe aimed at ET/CT late evening news).
But that he is not in PA holding a big rally still makes no sense.
"Swing states + AZ and GA gives Obama 400.
Granted they are long shots, but not impossible"
I was already counting Georgia, which I think early voting shows is in play. That + MT + ND + swing states gives him 396, and Nebraska 1 gets him 397.
I just don't see Arizona as remotely possible. I can't find 3 more I consider feasible.
Nate,
I'm here in Montgomery County in PA, one of the last stands for McCain. The town is going crazy over the Phils, but, we are getting out the vote. The nearest McCain Office is hours away. McCain is toast here.
sfergus483: let's give McCain the excuse of tradition. However, at this point I seriously doubt he could hold a "big rally" pretty much anywhere (unless by "big rally" you mean 5,000 students bused in to make the numbers). To me, big rallies are the ones Obama has been holding, like 40,000 people or more.
I just don't see Arizona as remotely possible.
Kos has Obama down 1 in AZ. That's closer than he's been in any poll of NE-1, right?
"Kos has Obama down 1 in AZ. That's closer than he's been in any poll of NE-1, right?"
It's not been polled that often. But I sort of consider Arizona the same way I consider Pennsylvania: The *closest* polls only get Obama close.
I'll drop NE, though, and give Obama 396 as a ceiling to be fair. He's actually led a poll in ND, and the Paul factor makes MT possible, and early voting is driving Georgia speculation.
Ink:
I generally played 100 or 200 turbo no-limit hold-em sit and gos on Pokerstars. My sweetspot. I ended up having to go work at an office. Lacked the time. I couldn't figure how to net more than about $1500/week over a long period + no healthcare + crazy hours + a fair amount of risk with potential cold streak. Couldn't take the chance, since i'm the sole breadwinner at this pont. 2 years later when I left that job, the online laws had changed and I had become a little more risk-averse. In the end, I might need to get me a work from home gig and play online again. I got another office gig I'm about to start, so it may have to wait.
sfergus,
"But that he is not in PA holding a big rally still makes no sense."
At this point it's really just a farewell tour, so there's no reason not to do a sentimental stop in prescott and keep it red for symbolic reasons. he *needed* polls to break substantially in PA by today at the latest to even pretend he has a chance. The spokespeople's propaganda of secret internal polls notwithstanding, they know it's not gonna happen. He's doing enough swing state work to keep up the pretense--no more than one last huzzah for the base to turn them out to keep the EV total below 375, to keep the dems from getting to 60 in the senate, and to keep enough hope burning for a midterm congress takeback.
After seeing those gallup numbes, I can see why McCain put us in the position. It is right where he wants us.
eric - I never got quite that far. There's a point where the money on the table starts equally a day's pay and I get gunshy. It's a pretty severe emotional toll that a lot of people underestimate.
I do well enough in the small stakes to supplement my income, but I don't really want to ever get to the point where I start having to feel like going to work is -EV.
I notice omaha had a lot of low-hanging fruit. I'm ana average player at Omaha and could win consistently online at it, not enough to keep at it though. Opportunity cost. Might make sense to master it though.
Registered voters:
Obama 52 (+2)
McCain 41 (-1)
Traditional LVs:
Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 43 (-2)
Expanded LVs:
Obama 52 (+1)
McCain 43 (-1)
Gallup = ouchies.
Obama picking up a 3 point gain across the board in gallup.
This is the first post-commercial gallup poll. Traditional LVs up to 8 points, registered up to 11 points.
Guys, the wind is at our backs. And this race is not tightening...its widening.
"I notice omaha had a lot of low-hanging fruit. I'm ana average player at Omaha and could win consistently online at it, not enough to keep at it though. Opportunity cost. Might make sense to master it though."
At anything under NL100: Wait for nuts (or a good draw to the nuts on the flop)...bet the pot....profit. Ez-pz
Sorry, I meant PL100, obviously.
RE: Gallup
Registered Voters
O 52
M 41
Likely Voters Traditional
O 51
M 43
Likely Voters Expanded
O 52
M 43
to quote Real Joe:
MCCain SURGE!!
Balls Explode!
re: Gallup
:-O
maybe I need to revise that 6% popular vote margin I just called above...
In addition guys, in the traditional LV model for gallup, Obama has never held an 8 point lead before, this is his biggest lead ever.
And its 4 days until the election.
Gallup = WOW!
WV: andorar - I "andore" these numbers!
I wonder if Rasmussen will show an uptick tomorrow for Obama, since McCain gained a point in today's average. Is Rasmussen a day behind in the trends, especially with Obama's ad on Wednesday?
Terrific Gallup numbers BTW!
Ink,
Yeah, I agree. It takes a lot of discipline to win $300-500 a day for say 4 days and the last day of the week lose $1000, be a little above even and not let it effect you going forward. The problem for me is the low stakes easy money feels like time could be better spent doing other things sometimes. Know what I mean. The higher stakes are scary because not only is there so much risk/reward, but the players are very good and may be better than you or me anyway. I probably made more money at the $100s than the $200s because i was clearly better than the average $100s players consistently. $200s I was barely better than the average players. Anything above that and there's not a lot of action, the action that's available is from pros where it's too hard to win consistently and scary.
Another call: barring some weirdly close poll this afternoon, the MSM narrative for the weekend shifts from "ZOMG Race Tightening!!1!1!!" to "ZOMG Will Obama's margin be larger than Reagan's?????!!!!"
Gallup tends to be a leading indicator al ot of the time. This thing might spread out toward the end.
I have nothing to add, but I would like to thank you all for making this fascinating race even more enthralling.
Would one of you more savvy posters give me your opinion on this pollster and methodology? I was sent this link with a high recommendation, and am curious...
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/
wv: taker -- taker away!
One of the funniest remarks I read here (don't remember who posted) in response to the whole "the race is tightening" mantra of the MSM is:
The only tightening I see is the Republican's sphincter muscles in preparation for Election Day!
WV: UNCON - a liberal (or a con turned liberal)
David Duke on NPR
eric said...
"Too power hungry and egotistical to be a theocrat."
Say what? That's an insult to theocrats everywhere.
MrInsight22 said...
"Between 50% and 80% of all people reached by phone this fall have refused to participate in polls. According to pollsters, the non-participants tend to be older, more conservative, and more anti-black."
Do you proof of that? If they don't participate, how do you know who they are and what they think?
Could you please explain - or point to a resource which explains - how the early-voting counts are done? I get the impression from some sources that the numbers are actually counts of voters by party affiliation (GOP vs. Dem), not actual vote cast (Obama vs. McCain). But your post here implies the latter. What's the real deal?
Thanks
A McCain person just said on MSNBC that NM is now a tie. Where do they come up with these numbers.
"A McCain person just said on MSNBC that NM is now a tie. Where do they come up with these numbers"
the most recent poll is a PPP poll that has obama at +17.
A razz poll from 3-days ago had +10.
the pollster average is +9
Nate's projection is +7.8
methinks they pull them out of their arkswat
@InkStain
There are 7 Republicans on SCOTUS, and this is the part of the Bush v. Gore decision that's relevant:
"By a 5–4 vote, the Court held that no alternative method could be established within the time limits set by the State of Florida."
I still don't get why they (MSM) keep saying that PA and IA are very close in "internal polling". What do they do differently and is it significant?
Nate,
In light of this, can you add
"Loses PA, wins election"
into the scenario percentages?
It would make more sense than the "Loses OH" at this point.
This is the exact reason Obama's GOTV will be remembered as the greatest of all time. This is unbelievable, PLUS 98 percent of ALL eligible Michiganders are registered? THE BEST CAMPAIGN EVER.
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