Our model does not make any specific adjustments for early voting, but it is presenting a major problem for John McCain in three states in the Mountain West region, where Barack Obama has a huge fraction of his vote locked in.
In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald's turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.
Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however -- say that Philadelphia remains in a collective stupor from the Phillies' win and that there is some sort of Bradley Effect in the Alleghanies -- Obama has a pretty decent firewall in the form of Virginia and Nevada, which had already achieved 53 percent of its 2004 voting totals as of Wednesday, and where Democrats have a 23-point edge in ballots cast so far in Las Vegas's Clark County (and perhaps more impressively, a 15-point advantage in Reno's Washoe County, a traditionally Republican area). The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia, total 270 electoral votes: an ugly, nail-biter of a win for Obama, but still one that would get him to 1600 Pennsylvania all the same.
10.31.2008
McCain's Mountain of a Problem
@ 10:34 AM
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First = New Republic...
top?
McCain's Speech today: "I'M AN AMERICAN AND I CHOOSE TO FIGHT"
sigh.
Dear god, four days left... come through for us, ColoMexiVada! Stay blue! For the love of all that's holy, stay blue!
I really want to see Obama win Arizona. That would be a lot of fun. I'm excited he is going on the air there. I wish I could help with a big turnout push - that is how it will happen if it will. In a state that is not keyed up as a battleground, an organized party can beat a slightly more numerous party, even without too much crossover vote.
I'm going out on a limb and projecting 407 ev's for Obama -- giving him GA, AZ, IN, MO, MT, and NE-2 in addition to all the other battlegrounds. With the early voting breaking the way it is, I think this could be possible -- certainly a landslide if not the 407 tsunami. One can hope. Nate, love your site and your work here and at BP.
wow thats tight. No wonder they're in PA so much
Early tracking results look good. +8 yesterday in R2000 is his best result there in a long while.
Plus this is awesome: Robots Attack: Robocalls
Ut oh!!!......it's not over yet!"
Must. Keep. Going.
WV: acesti with my sister just a little bit...
they = that old one and that scary one.
Josh a bum link is not awesome by any stretch.
Early voting update GA:
-Total votes 1,737,139 which is 53%of all votes cast in 2004
-AA still holding at 35% of votes cast
Stating with my prediction weeks ago GEORGIA IS TURNING BLUE!
Research 2000 - New Hampshire...
O: 51
M: 44
Same as their previous poll, with fewer undecideds.
New Hampshire
PS - Nate - you were good with Dan Rather. You looked more relaxed than with Olberman. Rather also asked you better questions that actually would allow you to talk about the modeling etc. I think it suits you well. I wish I could watch that channel Tuesday. Does anyone know how?
Different Josh... Barack to close out his campaign in NoVA on Monday. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2008/10/obama_will_end_campaign_in_nor.html
It will be a mad house; I'm already excited to go!
so, am I correct that the following things will be the most interesting results on Tuesday?
1) How big does Obama win?
2) Does Bachmann win or lose to Tinklenburg in Minnesota?
3) How does Chambliss fair in Georgia? Will there be a runoff?
4) Does California's proposition 8 pass or fail?
5) How many seats do the democrats gain in the House and Senate?
6) How many bricks will Sean Hannity shit?
Robo link worked for me. Good one!
Also: HA at Drudge whining about the NY Post being kicked off Obama's plane. The NY Post is TRASH. They never should have been on there in the first place.
So everyone, do you think Arizona is realistic, or a morale move?
I am a teacher and we recently participated in a student mock election. This includes elementary to high school age kids. The results were posted last night and though not very scientific are interesting and fun to look at
http://nationalmockelection.org/viewresults.html
note the upset that McCain pulled off in Hawaii, knowcking of Obama in the state her was born.
Note also the Obama landslide by overall only losing Alabama, Hawaii, Montana, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.
Since only about .5% of these voters will get to the polls, do not expect the same results on Tuesday.
"So everyone, do you think Arizona is realistic, or a morale move?"
Realistic. Definitely realistic. If the McCain voters are demoralized and think it's not worth coting for him since hes gonna lose anyway, then they will stay home. Obama could not win if they all turnout, but if they don't turn out, Obama can win it.
Naturally, if this race were closer Obama would not win it, but that's how landslides work, they cause the opposition to stay home.
Research 2000 - Iowa
O: 53
M: 39
This one's done, but McCain sure wasted a lot of time and energy here.
Iowa
1) 270 is enough
2) Who cares. 2 more years making a fool of herself and her party?/
3) Runoff. All dems to GA to help out?
4) Dunno, sorry
5) A few. Not to 60 in Senate
6) 13,456,789
To be slightly more serious about the Daily Show: how influential do you think it is?
I ask because sometimes satirical TV shows can be devastatingly effective. Back in the 80s, we had two "third" parties in an alliance in the UK, an arrangement which was decidedly unstable and involved the leaders of the two parties having to pretend that they liked each other. The TV puppet show Spitting Image portrayed one (David Owen) as a huge bully with a tiny squeaky David Steel in his jacket pocket - and it was an image which penetrated the public mind. And I'm convinced the fact that the title sequence of the show featuredd the outtake from Hugh Hudson's "Kinnock - the Movie" where the leader of the Labour Party fell over on a beach had a long-term subliminal effect which helped to blight Labour in 1992.
I thought something similar might be going on with the clip which Stewart repeatedly used from the second debate, with McCain wandering around the stage looking for Mr Puddles. I don't think anything has captured McCain's approaching senility as graphically as that moment with its fake commentary.
Early vote NC:
-2,078,050 total voted which is 58.5% of all votes cast in 2004
-AA 26.6% of votes cast(survey models are projecting 19-20%)
Matt, the pollster.
I think if Dem voter enthusiasm we have seen in nearby NV and NM is also in effect in AZ and even TX, both of them are in play.
I have a feeling TX will be shockingly close.
"So everyone, do you think Arizona is realistic, or a morale move?"
Morale move--for McGramps, he's gotta be pretty down in the dumps. ;)
RobR TX: I live in the Phoenix area and what I heard from co-workers (didn't see it) is that there are early vote polling places PACKED with voters waiting for up to 3 hours to vote early. Given the lack of enthusiasm from the part of Republicans and the almost unnoticeable number of McCain bumperstickers and yard signs, I believe these long lines must be Democrats in majority.
I can tell you if McCain wins here it's going to be VERY close. As an Arizona Democrat I would LOVE if Obama won here, but I'm simply not counting on it. If he wins by a squeaker I'll be a happy camper!
are we expecting any non-tracking national polls today?
McCain is campaigning in Maine today- I was trying to think of a scenario where that extra vote could help him and I guess this is it.
Dario:
Do you think McCain will win the election because of the Bradley Effect?
If so, do you think Nate is full of shit?
Hey, I was thinking at my victory rally we should play "GET ON MY LEVEL HOE" by Lil' Scrappy. Please opine on this matter.
@Peter said...
McCain is campaigning in Maine today
Just curious. Anyone know where in Maine?
PETER
His campaign should have checked here first:
McCain wins or ties election because of ME-2 -- 0.00% -- (0 of 10000)
See, what bothers me about the commentary about the early voting is the way that leads in early voting are being treated almost as if they are random samples. At some level, the margin early and late are not independent. There has been a concerted effort by the Obama campaign to get people out early. That's excellent but it means that if they are successful, then the early numbers are biased in direct proportion to how successful they are. Conversely, the election day returns are likely to be biased in the opposite direction in proportion to their success in getting Obama supporters to vote early.
An early voting lead is great but am not convinced that it adds up to quite the lead that people seem to think (I'm looking at you Chris Bowers!)
McCain is not in Maine today.
He will be in Bangor Maine on Sunday.
There's a survey out somewhere showing that people who watch The Daily Show (and Colbert?) are more in tune with national current events than those watching regular news.
At least, I think I remember that.
Stewart had Kristol on last night. I'd love to see more of that type of back-and-forth.
@cameronscrusaders -- thanks. I guess he's trying to shore up that 1 EV up north. I hope it snows on him...
As a current Coloradoan, and a former resident of Arizona, I'm hoping for the CO, NM, AZ trifecta. C'mon Tucson! C'mon Phoenix! C'mon Flagstaff!
Badgerhair
I'm currently in the UK. If you're looking for a US elections fix (and I assume you have Sky), I would suggest CNN's Situation Room at 10pm (until the US clocks go back this weekend). Wolf Blitzer is a pompous ass but the coverage is fairly down the middle.
Alternatively if you want to watch Republicans whine about how unfair the media are, Fox News is always worth a laugh at around the same time. Fred Barnes is possibly the biggest cunt in America.
I've never seen the Colbert Report on UK tv, which channel is it on?
Not kidding you on this one: my word verification is "palin".
Have to digest that one...
Charlie Crist (Governor of Florida) is pretty confident he can "carry the the state for John McCain". He's been saying that the external polls are wrong, and that McCain is actually 3-4 points ahead and will win the state. Hmmmmm....
...
...
...
@Dan: early voting totals come out at the same time their election day counterparts do in each district. So as far as televised coverage goes, there shouldn't be weird return numbers--exit polls COULD be another story, but exit polls (in states with early voting) will be useless this election.
@marco
How popular is the Arizona governor, and is she visible for Obama this cycle?
From Marc Ambinder at Atlantic this leaked internal micro-targeting database from a "Republican Insider":
"More Evidence Of A Surge Among Low-Propensity Voters In Colorado
The art and science of microtargeting is so very precise that these days that campaigns can very easily assign each voter to one of any number of categories and rank them according to how likely they are to vote.
A Republican insider passes along more early vote data from Colorado that breaks voters down according to there are three categories: low propensity voters -- i.e., sporadic voters... middle propensity voters...dencoden.jpg and high propensity voters. Within the categories, there are three subcategories: likely McCain voters, likely Obama voters, and likely swing voters.
It's easy to bank high-propensity voters, and McCain is doing better than Obama -- about 29,000 voters better.
It's more difficult to bank middle propensity voters -- and here Obama has a 26,000 vote lead.
And it's very difficult to bank low propensity voters -- and here again, Obama has a 20,000 vote lead.
As of Wednesday, Democrats had a 1.7% percent -- slim, yes, but again, certain voters are harder to turn out than others, and Obama's margin can be attributed, if the Republican data is correct, to a surge of low-propensity Democratic voters."
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/stan_greenbergs_undecideds.php#more
"Is this the first election where both candidates are left handed?"
In 1992 all three candidates (Clinton, Bush and Perot) were left handed
WV:crudays.....what mccain will have on november 4th
-2,078,050 total voted which is 58.5% of all votes cast in 2004
-AA 26.6% of votes cast(survey models are projecting 19-20%)
-----------------------------------
How does McCain win North Carolina if a little over a quarter of the vote will probably be 98 to 99% for one candidate?
Strategic Vision today is giving only +5 to Obama in PA. This is the second consecutive close poll in PA (Mason Dixon had Obama +4 yesterday).
Is McCain's PA strategy working??? Should we be concerned about PA???
"Fred Barnes is possibly the biggest cunt in America."
You got that right. That Fox "allstars" makeup is hilarious. You got a far right winger, a right winger, and a moderate. Very balanced.
McCain is doing cameo on SNL.
@marco...
It's a republican pollster. Please breath deeply.
If a republican pollsters gives an Obama +5 you should be happy.
Let's see what the PA daily tracker gives us.
@marco...
It's a republican pollster. Please breath deeply.
If a republican pollsters gives an Obama +5 you should be happy.
Let's see what the PA daily tracker gives us.
grapasub - a foot long grape sandwich.
This is great news.....FOR JOHN MCCAIN!
Hey Dan:
I appreciate what you're saying. But suppose that there are some things at the polls that make it difficult for Obama to win. Suppose there are hijacked machines, for instance. Mail-in voting creates a trail. Suppose there are suppression efforts at the doors. Early voting makes it possible to spend more time to fight this.
It's possible that there will be a stronger McCain turnout on election day. If so, i'll sweat throughout the day. At the same time, I guess I'd be sweating as much if I felt scared that some votes would be suppressed. I'm much more comfortable knowing that some votes are being logged.
My suspicion is that voters who haven't voted yet are less plugged in. If this is true, then Obama has more time to make his case to them. And if this is true, then all he has to do is get, say, 40% of the turnout in his favor on election day, and not 50% or more in his favor. That should be a much easier task, no? He can either try to win the remaining voters or so demoralize them that they don't show up.
marco, no.
We should be glad that McCain has wasted valuable time in a state he wont win.
Nate,
The whole Philly stupor, Allegheny Bradley effect possibility seems so unreasonable. I nkow you've just outlined the impossible hill McCain has to climb. How even if he somehow wins Ennsylvania, he's probably cooked anyaway. But, it's important to note that EPnnsylvania was 3.8% bluer than the nation asa whole in 2000. 5.0% bluer in 2004. And, is polling 3.9% bluer in 2008. It's totally absurd to think suddenly that will change. I suppose we could point to historicals like Virginia not voting for a Dem sinc '64 or NC being a 12% win for Bush in '04 and Indiana a 20% win and now look at them. That said, is all of the polling, 35 out of 35 polls from 16 different pollsters over 5 weeks wrong? It's close to impossible.
marco -
I feel like you guys are getting the chance we almost have in TX. I don't think Obama will win it, but I think he could have. It would have been dumb to ignore the true battlegrounds to do so, but I would have loved a visit or two to Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and the Valley. If those 4 places turned out, we could easily see a shocker here. It might not have been worth the effort in terms of opportunity cost, but it would have been fun. As it is, I still hope something surprising could happen here or AZ.
I think McCain will probably end up winning Florida. If I recall correctly, Kerry was up in the FL polls in 2004 just prior to the election ended up losing by a few points. So I say McCain gets it in a squeaker but it doesn't matter because Obama takes VA, CO, NM, NV plus one or two of the following (NC, IN, MO, ND, GA)
What is the source for the statement that the overwhelming number of early voters in NM are pro-Obama? Is it from an early exit poll?
@p smith
Colbert is on FX/FX+, 11pm/midnight. (164/165 on Sky)
I don't need to watch CNN or what have you to get "serious" coverage, though. I get all I need from 538.
So in Colorado and New Mexico when do those early ballots get counted and reported? Nate, you say they have been "processed". Does that mean they've all been set aside to be counted on Election Day? Or are the results actually sitting in the "eyes only" hands of a few people already?
Also are they electronic or paper ballots?
Because it's looking more and more like poll closing in the Rockies is when this election gets called. Although given the down to the last hope fighter that McCain is he'll probably won't concede till much later unless it was a clear, concise, and total blowout in the east. That speech where he was ralling with "that's what you do, fight for your country", I don't think that was an act. That's his drill sergeants voice reaching through time (I assume from beyond the grave). It's one of the things I admire about the guy. Really the US was lucky this election to have two quality people for candidates at the top of the tickets. Unfortunately the one came with a lot of baggage in tow (AKA RNC) that really tarnished him, plus a "maverick" temperament that I think just didn't suit what the Presidential role.
"What is the source for the statement that the overwhelming number of early voters in NM are pro-Obama? Is it from an early exit poll?"
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
"Is McCain's PA strategy working??? Should we be concerned about PA???"
The majority (50%+) in Pennsylvania is hard. Obama can only win the state by no less than 8% (54/46) in a direct run.
If you are worried, hit the nearest swing state and show up at an Obama office this weekend. You will be left with no doubt and less worry. His ground game is going to surprise a lot of the punditry.
My word was "palin" before and "trolyp" now...this has to be a joke.
Buckeye,
He doesn't win NC. GA turnout is 35% AA and at the current pace more AA will early vote in GA than voted in all in 2004. GA will have 1million+ votes cast by AA easily.
Both are turning blue.
Living in the UK its quite funny watching Sky News coverage of the US elections sometimes. (Sky is owned by Rupert Murdoch). It does its best not to seem like Faux News, but it somehow still comes off as a right wing trumpet. Every now and again they point to a slight (like .2%) tightening in the RCP average (which just about every UK news source seems to be using!) and screaming from the rooftops about it.
But even funnier is that the Daily Telegraph (the most right wing paper in the UK) has stopped publishing the RCP averages with there election coverage.
So...what is the worth of all these polls besides keeping us amused until the votes are tallied? Scott Keeter of the Pew Center says in the Wilson Quarterly that polls are more a detailed expression of the public will than they are predictors of elections.
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=wq.essay&essay_id=478923
aunt karen: Janet Napolitano is a VERY popular governor, even among Republicans. She was reelected in 2006 with a LANDSLIDE. As a side note, Arizona is one of the states with the highest percentage of independent voters (about 1/3). The state is slowly but surely turning blue thanks to the massive number of people who moved here from other states in the past 10 years (many of those from California, Northern Central and Northeastern states). Democrats now have 4 of the 8 AZ seats in the House and a pretty good chance of picking up 2 more seats.
"What is the source for the statement that the overwhelming number of early voters in NM are pro-Obama? Is it from an early exit poll?"
It's not exactly an exit poll...it's a regular phone poll. But since so many people in the electorate (and the poll sample) have already voted, it is sort of like an exit poll.
It's too bad that Nebraska has not been polled recently. I've been impressed by Scott Kleeb, especially the video where he defends his views to a group of somewhat hostile Kiwanis, who end up applauding him after his eloquent defense:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxnOIQOMLqE
He strikes the exact right note that a Democrat must strike to help change the deepest of red states.
McCain is not in Maine today.
He will be in Bangor Maine on Sunday.
Where they will tell him about Palin, "You brought her. You bang her."
I have a feeling TX will be shockingly close.
In the previous thread, I mentioned the early voting turnout in metro-Houston (heard on the radio).
RV voting by County
29% in Harris
34% in Montgomery
41% in Ft. Bend
This bodes well.
To date, how many polls have had McCain 'ahead' in Pennsylvania once? Even in a tiny sample size, bad weighting, right-leaning outlier?
marco said...
Strategic Vision today is giving only +5 to Obama in PA. This is the second consecutive close poll in PA (Mason Dixon had Obama +4 yesterday).
Is McCain's PA strategy working??? Should we be concerned about PA???
NO. Strategic Vision and Mason-Dixon show a consistent, heavy relative bias to Republicans. They're two of the only pollsters where this is true. Morning Call has it as Obama +13 out this morning. CNN released on Tuesday had it at Obama +12. Marist on Monday had it Obama +14.
McCain is not in Maine today.
He will be in Bangor Maine on Sunday
Actually, I live in Maine and heard on the radio that McCain had cancelled his plans to come up here. Probably finally realizes he's going to get crushed in both congressional districts here.
So this is funny - I'm looking at the internals of the Colorado PPP poll above, and it says that 1% of the people who have already voted are still undecided. WTF?
There is no way McCain is winning PA or any Kerry state for that matter. This doesn't mean we need people to get complacent though... GET OUT THE VOTE, KNOCK ON DOORS, MAKE PHONE CALLS.
I can't believe Nate is starting to sate that PENNSYLVANIA is in play right now.
The foot is definitely in the door.
The great thing about the early voting apparent leads for Obama is that not only are those votes locked in but that there are less voters to worry about on election day - that should make their election day GOTV efforts much more effective.
But it is true that Obama will likely do better in early voting than on election day voting because of how much his campaign has pushed it. Obviously what matters in the end are the two combined :) I think all in all it's a great advantage for Obama.
SWB Paper: Obama is +21 in Scranton.
PA is over.
Now McCain is going to Maine and making his way to Arizona. He is tending to the sheep who are straying from the base with four days left.
Numbers always accordian inward toward the end of the week before the election, giving the appearance of closing. Truth is, the most reliable numbers before an election are from the two previous Tuesdays before election day.
Well I have an idea why AZ may be competitive. McCain brags about never asking for pork barrel projects, but I don't know if that's the kind of thing that makes his constituents happy. The people of Arizona know all these other Senators are getting their projects for their states, yet McCain gets them nothing. Isn't he essentially leaving his state at a disadvantage?
I don't know about you all but I want my representatives in congress to bring home the bacon, expecially since other states are getting the same deal.
In Georgia as of yesterday a tototal of 1,767,139 million people have early voted. Out of that number 1,560,398 have voted in person and out of that number 617,965 African-Americans have voted putting the percentage at 40%
If you add in absentee ballot in assume everyone who mailed in was white you will will still have nearly 35% of the vote being black. Georgia is on my Mind as ray charles said and I see blue skys. How do you overcome 35-40% of a population (if numbers hold) voting 98% for one cnadidate?
Quick thought. Is it possible that this might be an even bigger landslide than anyone dares to hope for? High eatrly voter turn outs have been talked about in Tennessee and now Texas, is it possible that even a few solid red states go for Obama? Could he get near say 420 EVs? Am I hoping for too much?
Badgerhair -
I don't think the Daily Show is very satirically daring. Did you see the Tony Blair interview? He might as well have got down on his knees and blown him. Yes he has a go at the McCain camp but it's not exactly Chris Morris is it.
Wasn't it Michael Foot who fell over, while Kinnock did the incredibly embarrassing "You're al-right!" chant at the Sheffield rally, which was when I knew we'd f*cked it again.
"There's a survey out somewhere showing that people who watch The Daily Show (and Colbert?) are more in tune with national current events than those watching regular news."
Yes, there was a study done by Pew Research last year, stating that viewers of the Colbert Report, Daily Show and (gulp) O'Reilly Factor were among the most highly informed in the country:
http://people-press.org/report/319/public-knowledge-of-current-affairs-little-changed-by-news-and-information-revolutions
My WV: ingrand, as in "Obama supporters will be celebrating ingrand style on Tuesday night"
With PA being McCain's final Hail Mary...how wise does it now look to have the 'Boy From Scranton' as your running mate?
@ Ken, also from Politico
On the conference call, David Plouffe made the case that in key states -- including Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and New Mexico -- the race is already well on its way to being decided, because so many people have voted early.
"We’re sort of out of the land of theory in a lot of these states," he said. "You’re starting to see how the election is going to unfold."
Plouffe touted number suggesting that new and sporadic voters are showing up for Obama, a key factor.
You can see the staggering early vote numbers here. In five states, the votes already cast represent more than half of the votes cast in 2004 in each of those states -- a reminder that the notion of "election day" has become a bit outmoded, as a tactical matter.
TBender said...
I have a feeling TX will be shockingly close.
In the previous thread, I mentioned the early voting turnout in metro-Houston (heard on the radio).
RV voting by County
29% in Harris
34% in Montgomery
41% in Ft. Bend
This bodes well.
Shockingly close would be great. We can't flip it though. not this cycle. Did you see W.? Jr. goes to Daddy in 1993 and says I'm gunna run fer Guvenror against that Ann Reechirds? Daddy: She's too popular and you're not ready Junior. Junior: Daddy, I am ready. She's too librul fer Texas. I'm running. I'm runnin' now.
Too much wide open spaces that are not sparsely populated that equal bible belt and cowboys to make up the difference in light blue big cities. Maybe in 2012.
I don't know about you all but I want my representatives in congress to bring home the bacon, expecially since other states are getting the same deal.
This is something I couldn't figure out about McCain's wanting to make their names known.
He would just be letting those Reps' constituents know how much they are working for their districts.
The headline link on the CNN politics page is that Obama is holding his lead nationally but it then links to some shit about McCain in Ohio with Joe the Spanner. Can anyone access the real page and tell us what the CNN national poll says?
"Well I have an idea why AZ may be competitive. McCain brags about never asking for pork barrel projects, but I don't know if that's the kind of thing that makes his constituents happy."
I would disagree. The reason AZ is competitive is that we have seen McCain up close for decades and know that he's an asshole. Much of the Republican Party leadership here cannot stand him.
david4hire said...
I can't believe Nate is starting to sate that PENNSYLVANIA is in play right now.
The foot is definitely in the door.
Er... No he didn't. The only time Nate mentions PA is to say, "Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania," in the third graph. He then spends the rest of that paragraph saying how improbable he considers it.
Confimation bias is a bitch.
david4hire,
nate is not saying Pennsylvania is in play. He makes the case that PA is McCain's best chance of victory, but (and at this point lets us all remember Nate's views on the existence of a 'Bradley effect)
'Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however -- say that Philadelphia remains in a collective stupor from the Phillies' win and that there is some sort of Bradley Effect in the Alleghanies...'
Doesn't sound to me as if Nate is holding out much hope for McCain in PA.
Incidentally the other point about all the attention PA is getting is that it probably has the most votes up for grabs (both in the EC and on Tuesday). Without early voting, its probably McCain's bvest hope of an unlikely upset victory that could, could mind, carry hom to 270 EVs.
robr tx: I'm pretty sure Democrats in AZ are doing the best that they can to pull out a surprise win for Obama on Tuesday! I've witnessed all the energy from the ground staff both in Phoenix and Tucson (my wife and I drove down to Tuc for a volunteer meeting a few weeks ago). I'm confident that Obama will win easily in both areas, and probably in Flagstaff as well. The question that remains is if the turnout will be enough to surprise the entire nation on Tuesday.
voice of the midwest: thanks for the suggestion, but my wife and I already traveled to New Mexico to canvass for Obama. It was a wonderful experience and we are very proud of the fact that NM will be deep blue on Tuesday!!!
"Quick thought. Is it possible that this might be an even bigger landslide than anyone dares to hope for? High eatrly voter turn outs have been talked about in Tennessee and now Texas, is it possible that even a few solid red states go for Obama? Could he get near say 420 EVs? Am I hoping for too much?"
Absolutely. If McCain turnout is dimished, say 3 out of every 50 people who planned to vote for McCain just don't bother, that's gonna give Obama another state or two. The difference between a close election and a landslide is turnout. If McCain's supporters are demoralized, they will stay home. If they stay home, then suddenly we see Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas, Kentucky, states like that, suddenly capable of tipping. Now, if everyone shows up, naturally those states aren't going blue, but you know...not everyone shows up.
Hotline +7 O (No change)
Pennsylvania is 3.5-5.0% more blue than the rest of the country. It's been that way for a long time. Nothing's changed.
Forcefield said...
Hotline +7 O (No change)
Yesterday was Obama +6.
Although I consider myself incredibly rational, I'm really not. So I'm keeping my maths to myself in fear of "jinxing" the election. I will say, though, that I went through the same kinds of calculations before NC's May primary and was able to see that it was almost a mathematical surety that Obama had "won" that election before the election day proper. We haven't quite gotten there yet for the general election in North Carolina, but we are approaching a similar mathematical tipping point. I would not be at all surprised if that happened by the end of the Early Voting window tomorrow.
I also know, though, that the final GOTV push by the Obama campaign in NC is intense. There's never been anything run like this, by either party, in this state before. Believe it: Barack Obama will win North Carolina. So you can add those 15 EVs to his total.
i are stupid.
Thanks eric, that makes me feel more comfortable about PA!
WV: hermi - "hear me?"
The Daily Show can be very satirical though he does tend to give all guests a free pass on the basis (so he says) that it is not his job to provide actual political coverage and cross examination.
Possibly the funniest skit I have seen was his voter panel of Jewish Florida seniors where he got them to watch one of the debates and then comment. One of them was an arch Republican spouting Fox news talking points who came up with such classic lines as "Obama smokes, he might get lung cancer" and "his wife looks like a horse".
Jon Stewart's sidekicks are generally unfunny with the exception of the British guy who tried to get access to the BBC booth at the RNC by saying the word "aluminium" correctly.
My sense, based on the RealClearPolitics table of state changes of status, is that the activity in the "red zone" favors Obama if anyone. We really don't care if New York gets bluer or Texas gets redder. But of the five states in the RCP survey that have gone in or out of the toss-up category since 10/19 (last debate), four of them have moved in Obama's direction.
More in-depth analysis along these lines would be interesting, in the highly unlikely event that Nate has time before Tuesday.
What the Colorado Microtargeting data means if true!
(Remember this is not "official", it's from a Republican internal source, but it shows McCain losing Colorado).
If the leaked insider database from a Republican in Colorado means if true is that McCain is being out organized by Obama and it's showing up in the vote.
Traditionally in Colorado, rural voters were reliably Republican and they tended to vote by mail (absentee) a lot. Many rural counties are sparsely populated and it can be 40 miles or more to get to a polling place. So, these early voters are used to voting by mail and they are quite reliable in their voting habits. They were the "red" in the red-state.
Also the county clerks of many Red counties have been pushing early voting by mail so Republicans have an advantage there.
But, urban voters tended either to show up on election day or not.
Right now, McCain has a 28,862 vote lead among these "high propensity voters" i.e. voters who have voted in several election cycles and are reliable Republican votes.
These are mostly people from rural parts of the state, and possibly some from Colorado Springs.
But this is the "low-hanging fruit" so to speak. Getting voters who almost always vote and vote the party line is the easy part. Winning requires getting Independents and "low propensity voters" and it's among those who haven't voted before or are "sporadic" voters, or have voted for Independents in the past that is the key.
But Obama has a 21,726 vote lead among "mid propensity" voters, and a 20,000 vote margin among "low-propensity" (sporadic) voters.
Early Voting Total Obama Lead: 12,885 or 1.7%
In Colorado, the two parties are closely matched and it's the Independents who decide elections.
And it's these voters who will show up on election day. The normal voters who just vote in person on Tuesday will include MANY more "high propensity" Democrats.
If McCain isn't winning Colorado now in the early voting he never will, because the mail-in vote is from his most reliable voters.
Dan said...
"There has been a concerted effort by the Obama campaign to get people out early. That's excellent but it means that if they are successful, then the early numbers are biased in direct proportion to how successful they are. Conversely, the election day returns are likely to be biased in the opposite direction in proportion to their success in getting Obama supporters to vote early. "
Well, duh. I don't think anyone thinks Obama's final numbers are going to match his near 2:1 early voting figures. But all those votes are banked and requires less of an effort on Nov 4.
If 1/3 voters vote early, and 2/3 of those are for Obama, he'll have 22% of the vote going into election day so needs just 44% of the votes cast on Nov 4 to win the popular vote.
Eric,
There are many in the Dem party that think next election cycle TX could be a true toss up. Roland Martin was on CNN a couple of days ago explaining the building of the DEm party on the state level. He also said that TX could be high single digits this time arounf 8 pts for McCain
[p smith & Badgerhair]
"Fred Barnes is possibly the biggest cunt in America."
Like that!
I say to Palin (and Michelle Bachmann, and Liddy Dole)
well..."You are so dumb, I'll spell it out for you:
C - U - Next - Tuesday!
(read my caps!)
One thing that amazes me about McCain- bare in mind this is a guy who has been in the Senate since 1987. Lets look at his committee chairmanships. Twice chair of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee, twice chair of the Commerce Committee. (Lets also remember that the guy shows a lack of interest in the economy). Thats it.
Not much to show for 22 years in the Senate.
Quick thought. Is it possible that this might be an even bigger landslide than anyone dares to hope for? High eatrly voter turn outs have been talked about in Tennessee and now Texas, is it possible that even a few solid red states go for Obama? Could he get near say 420 EVs? Am I hoping for too much?
--------------------------------
I must be the only African-American on this board. People keep speaking as if they are surprised at how blacks are turning out. Black Radio and Black news have spurred a fervor among blacks to create history. The oBama campaign can not speak of it because it may frighten some white voters away from his campaign. I am telling you there will be places in the South that will flip or come dangerously close to flipping because of dramatic high black turn out and whites voting Obama but would nver tell their neighbors. There is a march planned on Sunday in Atlanta (the Million Vote March and I am hearing they will have a crowd hitting 100,000. Sharpton is leading it, but of course Obama will not speak about it, nor should he.
TBender said...
I have a feeling TX will be shockingly close.
In the previous thread, I mentioned the early voting turnout in metro-Houston (heard on the radio).
RV voting by County
29% in Harris
34% in Montgomery
41% in Ft. Bend
This bodes well.
--------------------
I'm not so sure. Ft. Bend County was Tom Delay's district, widely expected to flip back to Republican this election. Montgomery is almost as blue.
Progressives and Democrats in Texas have suffered from low morale since the state flipped a decade ago. If we could EVER get a ray of hope that we could make it a 2-party state again, it could get really interesting.
VW -- derator, meaning a poor debater that chooses to ingnore substantive questions and respond with personal attacks
"We haven't quite gotten there yet for the general election in North Carolina, but we are approaching a similar mathematical tipping point. I would not be at all surprised if that happened by the end of the Early Voting window tomorrow."
I've looked at this also. I've tossed some of those NC numbers onto my spreadsheet also, and I'm finding it _very_ difficult for McCain to make up these deficits, based on current 2008 early voting vs the final results in 2004. McCain is not looking very good there, not at all. UNLESS all the Republicans have conspired to wait until the final day, we're looking at North Carolina blue for sure.
SWB Paper: Obama is +21 in Scranton.
Link?
Dario: Still waiting for your opinion on the Bradley Effect. How racist do you think this country is?
High eatrly voter turn outs have been talked about in Tennessee and now Texas, is it possible that even a few solid red states go for Obama? Could he get near say 420 EVs? Am I hoping for too much?
Obama wouldn't even need TN or TX to get to 420. He'd need all the swing states + LA, AZ, WV. Not out of the realm of possibility....
MSNBC just reported on early voting which began today in OK-election officials reporting wait times of over and hour! The reporter tried to be nonbiased as possible but gave a distinct impression that most were Obama supporters. Anyone in OK out there who can report back to us here?
Why Obama will win:
Kerry states-PA+IA are certain to go for Obama it seems- that equals 238 EV's.
So he needs 32 more EV's from the following states-
NV: 5- 83%
NM: 5- 98%
CO: 9- 93%
FL: 27- 71%
MO: 11- 54%
IN: 11- 41%
OH: 20- 82%
NC: 15- 61%
VA: 13- 95%
PA: 21- 98%
Or from the following stretch states that he can win- but if he does win would probably only happen if he had already clearly won:
MT: 3- 12%
ND: 3- 17%
WV: 5- 2%
GA: 15- 8%
In all the first list except IN he is favored- and in many by 90%+
NM, CO, and VA look pretty safe- that's 27, and he'd need 5 EV's- as the post said that's NV which also looks very good
Plus this is all assuming PA isn't safe (which seems unlikely)- which gives 21 EV's meaning only 11 more EV's are needed- which seems like a guarantee from that group- how could Obama not get 11 more EV's of that group if he wins PA??
Plus OH looks very good with 20 EV's- meaning 12 EV's needed- which is the same situation as PA. What about FL + 5 EV's (which could be any other swing state).
Problem for McCain- there are so many swing states and Obama needs very few of them- and he's up in all of them except IN. He is relying solely on winning PA- and winning OH and FL as well- happens only 146 times according to the simulations, and of those Obama still wins 9 times (6.16%). How can McCain win without losing OH and FL and then pulling of FL?? If he needs that- which I think he does- then the simulations say that occurs 146-9= 137 times. Not looking good for McCain.
As a comparrison I looked up Joe Biden's committee chairmanships. And after 22 years he had chaired the judiciary committee for 8 years, presiding over the hearings on all Supreme Court nominations in that time, including Bork and Thomas.
This place is more volatile than IDB/TIPP's tracker
Wednesday was panic stations, today Obama's gonna win Texas...
long lines:
early voting in Oklahoma City
Having worked many weekends in Colorado for Obama, I'm not sure we can project accurately from the early voting totals. The ground game for Obama is Colorado was to encourage supporters to vote -- I saw no such emphasis from McCain's camp. I think the early voting favors Obama, but that election day voting might bring it back a bit as McCain supporters vote. I do believe, however, that Obama will carry the State!!!
crobe -- One who assumes they will win with no effort
dwbh,
you said "So this is funny - I'm looking at the internals of the Colorado PPP poll above, and it says that 1% of the people who have already voted are still undecided. WTF?".
Here undecided is probably proxy for "I've already voted, but I don't want to tell you for whom."
"I've looked at this also. I've tossed some of those NC numbers onto my spreadsheet also, and I'm finding it _very_ difficult for McCain to make up these deficits, based on current 2008 early voting vs the final results in 2004. McCain is not looking very good there, not at all. UNLESS all the Republicans have conspired to wait until the final day, we're looking at North Carolina blue for sure."
If NC, CO and NV are gone by early voting, even PA can't save McCain.
Andrew, i don´t think racism will be a problem for Obama at the end.
Ignorance yes.
If a lot of people vote for a theocrat (Palin), so that´s ignorance.
We're on the way to a 10+% Obama blowout. AAs will bring 8 million additional votes over 2004 and highly energized others will add another 8 million vote bonus not reflected in any polls. That alone is more than a 10% bump over what the polls are showing. Could be pushing 400 EVs.
@zech
I can see why you'd find Stewart's treatment of him nauseating, but they actually quite like Blair in the USA, odd though this may seem. And the trouble with Blair is that he's so slippery it's almost impossible to land a decent blow in an interview.
But it's not necessary for satire to be "daring" (see the McCain "dickfingers" there) to be effective, especially as too much of what is allegedly daring in satire is little more than abuse. The essential element is that the target should be made absurd, and that's quite often better achieved with only mild exaggeration and a raised eyebrow than with full-on assault.
perptinc: the current colour of AZ
"It's too bad that Nebraska has not been polled recently. I've been impressed by Scott Kleeb, especially the video where he defends his views to a group of somewhat hostile Kiwanis, who end up applauding him after his eloquent defense:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxnOIQOMLqE
He strikes the exact right note that a Democrat must strike to help change the deepest of red states."
Damn, that's inspiring stuff. I think a lot of people here too could use that pep talk to look deep into their own actions.
This mortgage pickle that the US, and ultimately a huge chuck of the economic developed countries of the world, has gotten into can be laid at the feet of a crapload of people. But dwelling on that blame, especially since it's quite possible that you should see some of that blame in the mirror, isn't going fix crap.
"No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it." - my favourite Albert Einstein quote
Buckeye,
I am not at all surprised that AA's are turning out in big numbers. But my point is that are we all getting the numbers, just in general and not just as far as AA voters, big time wrong. Is it possible that we are gonna see something truly shocking on Tuesday night?
SurveyUSA
Indiana: Obama 47 McCain 47 (Obama up by 20 points among early voters)
New Hampshire: Obama 53 McCain 42
New Jersey: Obama 52 McCain 42
Any news on the CNN national poll anyone?
"There is a march planned on Sunday in Atlanta (the Million Vote March and I am hearing they will have a crowd hitting 100,000. Sharpton is leading it, but of course Obama will not speak about it, nor should he."
not to be a dick or anything, but seriously, the best thing you can do is to drum up the vote as quietly as possible. your march will probably do more to encourage racist dickheads than to encourage blacks to vote. Save the march till Wednesday. Last thing you want is downtrodden racist voters all over America to see a legion of black voters marching across the south two days before the election. I feel almost mildly racists just saying this, god damn I hate ignorant racists fucks.
"SWB Paper: Obama is +21 in Scranton.
Link?"
Can't give you a link, but a reliable reference. Mark McKinnon (Republican strategist) mentioned yesterday on Morning Joe that the Scranton-Wilkes Barre paper had Obama +21 in a poll published earlier this week for the region.
This was his argument as to why PA is wasted time for McCain.
I can trust McKinnon because he has nothing to lose.
WV: "letrac" ...Toulouse?
Rick Davis is smoking crack. Says Iowa is "dead even"!
Davis BS
This is the same man who told us to keep a close eye on California earlier this summer.
buckeye i am black, in SC and i agree
1980 all over again, only Dems win this time.
david4hire, you may want to read what Nate wrote again. PA is not "in-play" it is McCain's hope of a miracle. Generally a 'miracle' isn't terribly predictable. We're in "divine intervention" territory now.
Roderick said...
@ Ken, also from Politico
On the conference call, David Plouffe made the case that in key states -- including Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and New Mexico -- the race is already well on its way to being decided, because so many people have voted early.
This is obvious to anyone that analyzes stats. I'm al ittle surprised Plouffe will admit this. I don't think there are accidents with that campaign though. He must wantto reassure the troops.
Those states are already being decided. If you recall the California Democratic Primary, Obama barely won election day, but got whooped in early voting. Early voting was substantial and took place for about a month. Hillary ended up winning by a sizable margin. If you compare 2008 #s to 2004, Democrats are doing extraoridnarily better this time. Parto f that is the enthusisasm shift from '04 to '08, but part of it is pure numbers right now. I think Nevada and New Mexico have shown to be blue. Florida and north Carolina lean blue at this point. The only way to make them red would be, big surge in momentum (polls) in last few days for McCain, heavy enthusiastic day of turnout for McCain, depressed Dem turnout election day of the voters planning on voting for OBama that hadn't show up yet. That's a big parlay. Probably unlikely. Last, Georgia. Pure tossup. OBama is netting an advantage and we'll see if it holds. There are probably enough Republican to overcome the advantage i they all show up, but some may stay home. It's very close. surprisingly, and could go either way.
P Smith -
Fair enough, we'll have to agree to disagree about the Daily Show. I love a lot of US comedy, but this show doesn't make me laugh, likeable though the guy is. Maybe I don't get enough of the references.
Any reliable information regarding the participation of young voters so far?
i heard that he Obama was winning by 21% in scranton last night on MSNBC too.
you can do is to drum up the vote as quietly as possible. your march will probably do more to encourage racist dickheads than to encourage blacks to vote. Save the march till Wednesday. Last thing you want is downtrodden racist voters all over America to see a legion of black voters
---------------------------------
I don't think the racist have been very quiet. if anything, they have been in your face and blatant.
How can McCain win without losing OH and FL and then pulling of FL??
That las FL is supposed to be PA obviously
Andrew, i don´t think racism will be a problem for Obama at the end.
Ignorance yes.
If a lot of people vote for a theocrat (Palin), so that´s ignorance.
Dario, those people were will never vote for a democrat. They are part of the "base", and are accounted for.
For those of you who made comments about Colorado: please reassure me, I know Colorado is leaning towards Obama but for some reason I feel like "I'll believe it when I see it". Early voting numbers in CO are not actually giving me a lot of comfort. Unlike Nevada, which I believe is pretty much in the bag for Obama.
WV: sorie - I'm really "sorie" McCain, but you need to pack your bags and rehearse your concession speech at the Biltmore Resort...
Dario, those people were will never vote for a democrat.
Pa John, why the ignorants democrats of Kentucky and West Virginia voted for Clinton in 92 and 96 but NOT for Obama now.
markymark said,
"One thing that amazes me about McCain- bare in mind this is a guy who has been in the Senate since 1987. Lets look at his committee chairmanships. Twice chair of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee, twice chair of the Commerce Committee."
These committees would actually be rather important to Arizona voters, but I doubt if more than a few percent of Arizonans are even aware of what McCain does or hasn't done at all. The question is, how deep is McCain's support in Arizona? How loyal are we to "one of our own"? In addition to the demographics changes that a previous poster mentioned, the personality issues that McCain has always had are now working against him. Just as the prestige of having a nationally known figure as our Senator has worked in McCain's favor in previous Senate elections, the bandwagon effect that is lifting Obama nationally is now making McCain look like a withered old loser. And who wants to support that?
PPP is calling CO and OR for Obama.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
Scroll down and enjoy!
One other strike for Liddy Dole...
Secty of Trans under Reagan and helped scrap Carter's plan for air bags to be in cars by the mid 80's.
Got pushed back to the 90's... 10 years and thousands of good Americans being maimed and killed in auto accidents, unnecessarily. Father's and mother's who could then not support their families - which destroys a family's future - sons and daughters cut down in their youth...killed or permanently disabled.
That's Dole, that's Reagan, that's Republicanism.
No Regulation, Fiscal and Tax policies that always favor the wealthy. Decades of shiting on Joe the Plumber and his friends.
BURY THEM. THEY RUIN LIFE IN AMERICA.
www.barackobama.com
(make calls for the next 4 days)
"SurveyUSA
Indiana: Obama 47 McCain 47 (Obama up by 20 points among early voters)"
Indy will have 105,000 early and absentee voters in 2008. The highest early turnout in a Presidential year was 27,400 before this.
The Lake County (IN) early turnout is at an even more impressive 450% pace over 2004.
Every city/county in Indiana with more than 75,000 voters is running at no less than 250% of 2004 levels for early voters.
This may provide the margin for Obama in Indiana.
Now you know why the Lake County Republican Party is suing to stop early voting.
Buckeye...
That is awesome news! I am so glad to hear that. I wondered if something along those lines might be happening.
"I don't think the racist have been very quiet. if anything, they have been in your face and blatant."
Yeah, I suppose so. Here in Wisconsin where I live we have very few blacks, but we're overwhelmingly backing Obama. I'm just afraid people in my area will see black marches on TV and change their minds. Guess I should have more faith in people to think as I do.
For those trying to puzzle out the early voting look at my posts above from Marc Arbinder (Atlantic Mag) published internal Republican database from Colorado.
So far, if this document is accurate, 72.8% of Republican early voters are from their "most reliable" voters -- the ones who always turn out, the party loyalists.
But, only 61.4% of Obama's voters are from the "usual suspects" -- Democratic loyalists.
Yet Obama is still winning by at least 1.7%.
That is proof Obama is succeeding in getting out the vote among sporadic and first time voters.
That leaves a larger percentage of Democratic loyalists to turn out on election day.
In Colorado it's always a fight between the rural (very Red) part of the state and the front-range cities east of the Rocky Mountains: (very Democratic) Denver metro, Boulder and Pueblo versus (very Republican) Colorado Springs.
Urban voters favor Obama and most will vote ON election day, not before (although of course early voting is also big here in Denver).
If Obama is doing this well among early voters in a state where early voting clearly favors Republicans (according to Republicans no less) it's going to be a long night for John McCain.
WV: "rousnank!" as in "Look at those numbers! That's totally 'Rousnank' man!"
Dario Clinton was white.
Colorado PPP poll: "65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points."
Poll had a pretty big sample size, too, like 2,000 people.
Crap, what am I going do on Wednesday. Anyone know of a Statistics Anonymous meeting in the DC area? I gonna be jones'in for some charts and graphs by Thursday.
There's a lot of anxiety on this board with only 5 days to go. What can you do? Even if you live in a non-battleground state, say CA or NY, you can still get involved:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/votercontact
The campaign will provide supporters in non-battleground states with a list of undecided voters in battleground states to call. With this tool, anyone can make a difference in the campaign. I think they start off assigning you just 30 phone numbers. Please send this to everyone you know, and consider helping out with this effort.
"Early voting numbers in CO are not actually giving me a lot of comfort. Unlike Nevada, which I believe is pretty much in the bag for Obama."
Hehehe, if you want reassurance, know that Colorado went 5% for Bush in 2004. Now go look at the early voting totals from 2004 and compare them to today's early voting numbers. You will find a newfound reassurance than none of my words can properly convey.
Doesn't it make you question these polls' likely voter models when the early voting break down is so divergent from the prediction of future likely voters.
plethota: an overabundance of people with lisps.
I believe the numbers you are seeing about the black vote will increase Tuesday. Many people I know want to wait for the fourth just to experience the whole day. I can't convince my wife to vote early. She wants to do it on that date. She taking her OSU chair, packing sandwiches and taking her radio with her and all of her friends plan to do the same.
True about Montgomery being blue. But if it's the eastern end of Ft. Bend coming through, it does bode well for Democrats. I'm partly using the general thought that more turnout favors Democrats.
Saw another set of Republican signs (Olson, Cornyn, McCain)tagged for illegal posting this week.
Last weekend's Obama rallies in Colorado drew somewhere in the neighborhood of 150,000 folks-- and I haven't seen a McCain yard sign in weeks. So Colorado's feeling decidedly blue to me.
This may have been posted already but it's worth repeating. "Charles meets Barak".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW-6DpC-mj8
(wv) pshetsu: Little dog carried around in LVitton bags.
"The campaign will provide supporters in non-battleground states with a list of undecided voters in battleground states to call."
Andrew, I was thinking about doing this over the weekend, and I was wondering: how does the campaign maintain any control of this? How do they know I'm not Mule Rider wanting to crank call people? I guess crank calls are harder in this age of caller ID but still...
Yes, Clinton was white.
In West VA and KY majority of registed voters are democrats, they are racist and ignorants.
This factor explains why McCain will win KY and WV and Dole and Bush Sr lost.
A worst case scenario map- assumes McCain wins MO, IN, OH, WV, VA, NC, FL, GA, NH and Maine- which he could do.
Guess what? Obama still wins!
"Doesn't it make you question these polls' likely voter models when the early voting break down is so divergent from the prediction of future likely voters."
The million-dollar question remains: Is Obama's emphasis on early voting shifting votes from Election Day to before, or is it actually picking up new votes?
I suspect he's actually getting new ones, but we won't know until Nov. 4.
"mismone" - How I thought about finances the first few years post-college
"I believe the numbers you are seeing about the black vote will increase Tuesday. Many people I know want to wait for the fourth just to experience the whole day. I can't convince my wife to vote early. She wants to do it on that date. She taking her OSU chair, packing sandwiches and taking her radio with her and all of her friends plan to do the same."
I'm doing the same thing here in Wisconsin, buckeye. I take off work all day, drink a shitload of caffeine, go vote about 11:00AM (my wait time is never more than 5 minutes), then just watch TV all day. I love election day.
So, the margins are too big for the Republicans to steal the vote using the rigged vote-switching machines this time, right? RIGHT? There are a lot of ES&S iVotronic machines in PA, aren't there?
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/10/voting-machine.html
http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200810250560
http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/897
Please tell me they can't steal our votes again! OH GOD somebody talk me down!
>>you can do is to drum up the vote as quietly as possible. your march will probably do more to encourage racist dickheads than to encourage blacks to vote. Save the march till Wednesday. Last thing you want is downtrodden racist voters all over America to see a legion of black voters
---------------------------------
I don't think the racist have been very quiet. if anything, they have been in your face and blatant.
That's the hardcore you are talking about. There dwells a little bit of race based fear in a lot of people. Al Sharpton is the kind of fellow, espousing the kind of rhetoric that can really inflame that. Because Hate breeds Hate.
I agree. The rally alone is a bit scary. Unless he can keeps his tone in a very constructive vein, and that's not really his schtick, this could only hurt Obama overall.
The Republicans have never stolen an election. There was a statistically too close to call election in 2000 where they were declared the winners, and they won (relatively) fair and square in 2004.
RWD said...
Colorado PPP poll: "65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points."
Poll had a pretty big sample size, too, like 2,000 people.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
This is the first I've seen of a pollster or anyone looking at this. It's very useful. PPP is a Democrat-leaning pollster, but this is still useful.
If we look at early voting in certain states and realize the margin that McCain would have to win by in day of voting to make up the difference it's very telling.
They can steal your vote. We need to GOTV and overwhelm them.
shadowguidex: thanks for your comments...I'll be tuned in for Colorado, it's one of the 2 states I REALLY want Obama to win for emotional reasons (the other one is Virginia).
WV: ovesses - Oval Office addresses
"Please tell me they can't steal our votes again! OH GOD somebody talk me down!"
Take a ridilin. Obama has this thing won if everyone just goes and votes. That's all, it's no big deal. I've seen many landslide elections, this one will be no different. You can't fake 10% margins.
RWD?
WTF? Crank call?
Anyone have info on whats going on in OK?! Huge early voter turnout.....which began today. Just want a local perspective on the mood down there.
Inkstain said...The million-dollar question remains: Is Obama's emphasis on early voting shifting votes from Election Day to before, or is it actually picking up new votes?
Both campaigns seem to acknowledge a significant sporadic and new voter edge for the Democrats in Colorado at least. This also seems to be the case in New Mexico.
What the hell did you spend so much money on in rural Illinois?
"What the hell did you spend so much money on in rural Illinois?"
Living expenses. My first job out of college was a significant paycut from the burger-managing I did to pay for college.
Congratulations President Elect Count Barackula!!! You are like a 'kedierso' in a pool full of McCains.
Spot the 'W V', you atedunts.
Bush won early voting by 70,000 in Colorado in 2004. He won the state by 100,000.
In 2008, early voting favors the Dems by 2% or about 25,000 voters. There's also 25% Independents. They likely lean Democrat this time.
A key number to look for on Election Night is 193 electoral votes by 10 PM EDT.
If Obama is at this number or more in projected states, the die is cast. Washington, Oregon, and California get called at 10:01 PM EDT and that would get him over 270.
My feeling is that the ultra-sensative networks that they will not call any states with a spread of 10% or less until over 50% of the vote in that state is in.
Sharpton is and will always be a grand stander. His only concern is promoting himself---this is another example of that. Jumping on Obamas coat tails---because his style is no longer relevant nor effective.
We just need to make sure these college students TURN OUT AND VOTE!!!
Dario:
You said on the last thread you don't think Obama will win. You cited ignorance and racism as reasons.
So do you think all the polls are wrong? Do you think there is a Bradley Effect going on? Or do you think voters will go to the polling place and, at the last minute change their minds to vote for the theocrat?
"Almost EVERY COLLEGE STUDENT IN THE COUNTRY uses a cellphone for phone contact. Most of the them being Obama supporters. That's a ton of votes."
If they show up. I'm skeptical.
inism - a cliche spouted by people who think they are cool
David,
Cell-phone only young people are likely accurately reflected statistically by landline users in that age demographic.
There won't be this hidden "surge."
PPP released polls for CO, MI, MN, NM, OR, and WV
RCP posts them from just MI, MN, NM, and OR- why?????
WV is + 13 McCain, and CO is +10 Obama- is it to avoid CO going more blue on their listing- or do they update in a weird way- I think they posted the MN PPP after the first three- maybe they'll get to the other two later in the day- but it seems weird that they wouldn't all be updated in the same way. But I guess it's expected RCP will be doing weird nonsensical things
Zechaplunga, if you're not American, The Daily Show is probably not all that amusing, since it relies heavily on pop culture and past references.
To be slightly more serious about the Daily Show: how influential do you think it is?
The Daily Show not so much. Audience is too small and too left and young leaning to really break into mainstream consciousness. But, I believe Saturday Night Live does have a real impact. They big enough that they can cement an image of a candidate in the public's mind. They killed Gore in 2000 with the caricature of him during the debates. This year, they've destroyed Palin's reputation.
@Badgerhair
"I thought something similar might be going on with the clip which Stewart repeatedly used from the second debate, with McCain wandering around the stage looking for Mr Puddles. I don't think anything has captured McCain's approaching senility as graphically as that moment with its fake commentary."
Agreed! My wife and I have been saying "Ive got Snausages" to each other ever since that bit!
And to add to the unscientific school polls, the middle school here held their mock election two days ago. Obama won 65%-35%. This is in a small red Indiana town; the same mock election four years ago went by roughly the same percentage... to Bush. My 14 year old was kinda stunned to be on the winning side.
Anyone have any idea what's going on at Intrade.com? Someone's been pouring money into a McCain win over the last three or four days--pushing his odds up from about 13% to 17%--something that seems way out of whack with what the polls are telling us. Either someone is throwing away a lot of money to try to make McCain's chances look better or someone thinks they know something no one else does. Any one else noticed this?
I believe the under 35 demographic is finally starting to realize that they BETTER turn out...or be left to clean up an even BIGGER mess that the previous generation has dumped on us.
Inkstain said:
"The Republicans have never stolen an election. There was a statistically too close to call election in 2000 where they were declared the winners, and they won (relatively) fair and square in 2004."
Wrong. Voter suppression tactics in Florida altered the outcome of the 2000 election; the Republicans on the Supreme Court prevented a proper recount. And then in 2004:
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen/
Andrew,
McCain a "theocrat"? Learn what the term means. He will be a bad leader for the country but he is certainly not a "theocrat."
He's used the name of "God" or "Jesus" what like 5 times over the last year and a half.
"Cell-phone only young people are likely accurately reflected statistically by landline users in that age demographic."
Untrue. Landline younger voters tend to also be married. Statistics have shown forever that unmarried people vote differently than married people. The married/unmarried statistics have been around for far longer than cellphones.
Obama is holding a rally in Highland (Lake Co) IN tonight after he gets done with trick and treating with his daughters (Highland is maybe 15 miles from his house). My guess is that he will end the campaign Tuesday after taking an overnight flight back from the west (Las Vegas, Phoenix maybe?) and head out to a commuter train station in Merrillville before getting some rest during the day.
Or maybe he participates in GOTV by doing local TV and radio interviews.
What in the world is all this talk of intrade? Just cause some douche somewhere is buying McCain "stock" that somehow reflects what's going on in the country?
I've never quite understood it.
@ Mule
Read the thread. Dario referred to Palin as a theocrat.
inkstain said...
Living expenses. My first job out of college was a significant paycut from the burger-managing I did to pay for college.
At least more honorable than I. I did web design for an adult site to pay for college.:(
State GOP chair: McCain 'kind of like Jesus'
"Voter suppression tactics in Florida altered the outcome of the 2000 election"
Voter suppression tactics are not stealing an election. If it is, then Obama stole his first win to get into the state legislature in Illinois (well, technically that was petition suppression).
" the Republicans on the Supreme Court prevented a proper recount"
There are no Republicans on the Supreme Court, and the decision that the recounts were unconstitutional was 7-2.
Re: 2004
Oooh, you have a spooky conspiracy link. Big deal. Your own link quotes the New York Times "there is no evidence of vote theft or errors on a large scale." There were irregularities, as there always have been and always will in in an election of this scale. But no stealing.
yoink: I noticed the Intrade thing too, and am also wondering...
"At least more honorable than I. I did web design for an adult site to pay for college.:("
Nothing dishonorable about that.
tbender,
there's no question that the big cities in Texas are bluer and more for Obama than the rest of the state. We have heavy early voting in Texas this time, especially in the counties of big cities. That said, look at this from the 3 counties you mentioned in Houston and surrounding:
Texas total Bush 61.09%
Kerry 38.22%
Harris 55% Bush 45% Kerry
Montgomery 78% Bush 21% Kerry
Ft. Bend 57% Bush 42% Kerry
Texas is a hard nut to crack for a Dem.
shadowguidex,
You're grasping at straws because you just want a topic to be on the other side of the issue as me.
For THIS election and THIS moment and time, there is NO statistical difference between the patterns of the two groups.
There will be NO surprises at the end of the election.
Buzz off.
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